Guest Contributor: Pico Dulce -- St. John's Scouting Report

Pico Dulce of Rumble in the Garden blog ran off a scouting report on the Red Storm...

Starting Five & Rotation Notes
Dwight Hardy G 6'2" and listed at 195 (which I don't believe) - he has a lot of nicknames and takes a lot of shots for the Red Storm. He's become very accurate in the last month. You may heave heard something about him.

Paris Horne G 6'3" - an ace defender, and finally able to use his combination of athleticism - strength and speed, defensive agility and leaping ability - to help the team win in ways that don't show up on the scoreboard.

DJ Kennedy G/F 6'5" - a tenacious dirty-work player who will pick up rebounds and is a dangerous defender in the Red Storm's press and in transition defense.

Dwayne Polee II F 6'7" - a long freshman getting his feet wet with a number of starts, he has a developing jump shot.

The Red Storm go maybe 8 deep, with forwards Justin Burrell and Sean Evans logging time in the post, along with point guard Malik Boothe.

Justin Burrell is 6'8" and looks like a basketball player. Half the time, he plays like a basketball player; he's been motivated and focused recently, so his active brand of basketball - physical, strong, and liable to catch a Technical foul - will be on display.

Sean Evans, the Philly native, has re-blossomed into a bit of a low-post force. He's doing a lot more right now than he did in the previous 3 seasons, not breaking off of the offense to make dribble moves that go nowhere (I hope he was breaking off of the plan. If that was the plan, well...). Evans can bang in the paint and hold his space.

Malik Boothe is all of 5'9" but he has been a defensive sparkplug. No quarter asked, none given. He's happy to try and pull the ball right out of another players' hands, passes decently, and is much better at making an end-of-shot-clock jumper or drive than in the past.

Defense First
St. John's whole system is based off of their defensive pressure. It's not constant; they press off of made shots, generally, and the press tends to slow teams down a bit, restricting transition opportunities. At times, they will crank it up with Paris Horne and Malik Boothe guarding ballhandlers close; there will be traps around halfcourt at times. When the press is broken, there is often an open 3-pointer waiting to happen.

In the halfcourt, the Red Storm mostly play a matchup zone. Some games it looks better than others, and they give up a number of three-pointers in the zone - for periods of the game. Late in the game, they tend to better identify developing threats and mark them well. Even with the open threes, the zone is effective. The Red Storm spring traps in the corners to force turnovers or passes that lead to turnovers. The team reacts well in the zone, forcing cross-court passes that can get a little wild.

On Offense
On offense the team moves the ball up quickly to test the defense. Off of misses and of turnovers, DJ Kennedy will likely be in the middle, looking for a streaking Justin Brownlee or Paris Horne going to the basket; sometimes Kennedy's the recipient of those passes. Dwight Hardy is often guarded, and gets many of his points off of a screen-and-roll and a dribble. He's become awesome at attacking a little bit of daylight for a drive and layup/ foul or a mid-range jump shot.

His job as point guard is in name only; he gets to handle the ball because he's uniquely able to take advantage of small breakdowns in the defense. But his ability to attack draws defenders; he'll pass the ball off, and get it back when he's better able to attack his man.

Vulnerabilities & Conclusion
The Red Storm have been susceptible to size for much of the season; Justin Brownlee is less effective against bigger defenders, though he is using his offensive versatility more than in the past. But the team has trouble scoring on longer, taller teams like Cincinnati; expect them to have some struggles against Yarou and Pena if they can't coax those two out of the paint. The forwards have shown a willingness to pass out of trouble (and to rotate to places to accept passes when their teammates are in trouble), and they look more effective, even if the shots aren't falling. Justin Burrell has shown signs of being a creative post player once more, so there's a chance that he might be able to go to work on Villanova.

Overall, the Johnnies are playing smart, smart basketball. I don't think they'll win - but that's mainly because I'm a pessimist. The team is really clicking despite their weaknesses, and they've become a real joy to watch.

greyCat Notes...Pico is absolutely correct about his last point -- this Johnnies team has been fun to watch. I caught them at the Garden for the Notre Dame and Pittsburgh games this season and the team has taken a 180 degree turn from 2010 and earlier editions. This is a very dangerous St. John's team.

On Dwayne Polee -- when asked in the Pitt post game presser about next season's team, Coach Steve Lavin suggested that getting starts and minutes this season for Polee would pay dividends next season as he would be one of the experienced players the staff could rely on to bring next season's freshmen along.

Catch Pico's "5 Questions..." features with VUHoops.com (they discuss indispensable players, the bigs turnover problems and "Jay Wright to..." rumors) and Nova Blog (they explore confidence issues, Mo Sutton's suspensions, futures for Corey Fisher, etc.) over at Rumble in the Garden. Pico has also combined material from his "5 Questions for..." features with a scouting report I sent over yesterday and produced an entertaining breakdown of the Wildcats and Johnnies game tomorrow.

Preview -- West Virginia

Off Script...
#8 Villanova hosts West Virginia University Saturday at noon in a game that will decide who keeps pace with Pittsburgh (at the top of the Big East standings) and Notre Dame, currently the sole #2 in the conference. Both teams have taken circuitous routes to this place. The Wildcats thought they would go nine (at least) deep with their blue ribbon sophomore class progressing nicely, but pushed by their two freshmen recruits, James Bell and JayVaughn Pinkston. Bell, feared at one point to lose the season, has rehabbed and gets a few minutes each game. Pinkston, out on discipline issues, should rejoin the team next season. The Sophomore Progress Report is mixed, with the jury still out on several well regarded players. For West Virginia, the major action has been off the court. ...

Common Opponents...
...Conference opponents only for common foes, as the two teams run in different D1 "circles". Villanova fills a large part of it's OOC dance card with Philadelphia teams (the Big 5), while West Virginia has similar local rivals centered in the greater Pittsburgh metro area (Robert Morris, Duquesne). Of their conference opponents, good luck trying to decypher what has gone on before. +30 versus Providence? -15 on the road?! That both teams sport a 4-2 record against that common slate is strange indeed. The absence of a discernable treand confirms what those who have watched the games this season suspect -- the Big East, as has most of the power conferences this year, is having a chaotic, wide open race for most of the conference tournament seeds so far...

	Nova		WVU
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
South Florida	W (A)	+12	W (H)	+10
Georgetown	L (H)	-3	W (A)	+6
Providence	L (A)	-15	W (H)	+30
Louisville	W (H)	+14	L (A)	-1
Cincinnati	W (H)	+11	W (A)	+11
Marquette	W (H)	+5	L (A)	-5

West Virginia's best OOC win was a three point victory over Vanderbilt (SEC, 15-6, 3-4, RPI #24), a win that looks better to the RPI than Ken Pomeroy. Pomeroy values the 'Eers win over Duquesne (A-10, 15-5, 8-0 #28 Kenpom) a bit more. Best conference wins include the 65-59 road win at Georgetown (17-5, 6-4, RPI #5) and at home versus Cincinnati (16-3, 3-3, RPI #35), a convincing 15 point win. Their single loss, a 12 point loss at Pittsburgh earlier this week, did little to diminish their tournament resume.

Villanova's marquee out of conference win is still the Temple University (A-10, 16-5, 6-2, RPI #35) game, a four point decision, in December. The Wildcats' best win overall was their 11 point road victory over Syracuse (17-4, 6-4, RPI #16) in conference play last month. Villanova's worst loss, a 15 point spanking at the hands of Providence (BE 14-9, 3-7, RPI #99) also last month. Other losses in conference play include a two point loss to UConn in Storrs and a three point home loss to Georgetown last weekend...

Lineups, Rotations...
...The team that takes the court Saturday is surely not the one envisioned by Coach Bob Huggins in the weeks before Fall Practice. David Nyarsuk and Noah Cottrill are no longer in the program, though Nyarsuk may be in Morgantown next season. Of the two Cottrill was more likely to have an impact this season, but, recently suspended (for the second time since last September) guard Casey Mitchell aside, Coach Huggins has a pool of seven players among whom he typically allocates starts and playing time. Should Mitchell's second indefinite suspension this season be lifted by game time, the senior 6-4, 220 pound guard will probably start alongside junior Darryl Bryant (6-2, 195 pounds), a back court pairing the WVU staff has used in nearly 17 of the Mountaineers' 22 games this season. Red shirt senior Joe Mazzulla (6-2, 200 pounds) will come off the bench to sub in at the point when either Bryant or Mitchell sits. Sophomore wing Dalton Pepper (6-5, 230 pounds) will see minutes, most likely more than 10, at various points in the game. The wing has seen his minutes decline slightly since the start of conference play, but this is a home-coming game of sorts for the Pennsbury graduate. Look for the staff to tab senior 6-7 215 pound forward John Flowers and 6-8, 260 pound junior forward Kevin Jones to start in two of the three forward spots. The fifth starter will go to the player with who best fits the game plan and has probably practiced/played well lately. Senior forward Cam Thoroughman, one more of a seemingly endless supply of 6-7 forwards (Coach Huggins loves 'tweeners) has gotten the nod lately, but the staff has also tabbed (the recently departed) Dan Jennings and (6-9, 270 pound) sophomore Deniz Klicli for starts in the last six games. The spot does not appear to be nailed down yet. If Coach Huggins goes deeper than eight, expect to see Jonnie West (fifth year senior) first.

Coach Wright juggled the lineup for the Wildcats' home game with Marquette. Adjusting the starting line-up he had used in Villanova's first 21 games, the Coach decided to continute starting the three seniors, Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes and Antonio Pena, but pair Fisher and Stokes in the back court even as he left Pena at the #4. Coach Wright tabbed the fourth "regular" starter, sophmore center Mouphtaou Yarou for the #5, but decided to start sophomore Isaiah Armwood at the #3 and bring sophomore point guard Maalik Wayns off the bench early. While the change up may well have been to confound Marquette specificially with a match-up problem, having two 6-0 guards side-by-side can be problematic on defense, espeically one that relies so heavily on man defense with switching principles. The bench was short for the Warriors, limited largely to Wayns and spot appearances by freshman James Bell, and sophomores Dom Cheek & Maurice Sutton. The Marquette game marked a departure in the usual Villanova rotation, those three typically see playing times range between 10 and 20 minutes.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
Expect a modest clash of pace, as Villanova looks for a possession or so more than the Division 1 average (67.5) while West Virginia typically plays for three or so possessions less than the D1 average. Pomeroy projections suggest the two teams will settle for something in between (about 65 possessions), but in five of Villanova's last six games the 'Cats have had fewer than the projected possessions. This one might yield a game barely in the 60s, which would spell trouble for Villanova, as it would suggest the 'Cats are getting few points in transition. A "Four Factors" comparison when West Virginia has the ball...

When the Mountaineers have the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
'Eer O	49.1	19.3	41.4	41.3
Wildcat D	44.7	19.1	28.0	33.9

The Mountaineer offense is ranked #24 according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report, one of the near elites in Division 1. Coach Huggins' squad rebounds their misses among the very best in D1. Coach Huggins' offensive strategy is fairly straightforward, toss the ball at the basket and then rely on those athletic forwards to get the rebound and score on putback opportunities. They get to the line well, (41.3% of their FGAs, ranked #98 in D1), which suggests those rebounding battles can get physical. Perimeter defense has been a source of handwringing for the Nova Nation, but they will most likely not have to worry Saturday, West Virginia three point shooting falls in the bottom quarter of three point shooting, though frankly their two point attempt conversions are among the top third of Division 1. They are among the elites at covering the offensive boards, thereby giving themselves second chance opportunities. This mtachup is crucial for Villanova, as the Wildcats are among the elites for defensive rebounding. In two losses of their four losses, the Wildcats were unable to control the defensive boards, allowing their opponents to gather >35% of their misses. This should be a good benchmark for the Villanova front court and staff game planning. Holding West Virginia to the D1 average would be a huge boost, but that struggle beneath the boards could well test the Wildcats' depth at the forward spots. While West Virginia is good at getting to the line, they are an average team at converting those opportunities. Villanova has become particulary good at defending the shot, their eFG% defense is ranked #26 in D1. If Villanova starts Armwood but struggles to contain West Virginia's offensive rebounding in the first half, look for the type of half-time adjustment that might call for more bodies to crash the boards. That would however, diminish fast break opportunities. With poor three point shooting, Villanova's staff may feel that having both Wayns and Fisher together in the back court may be less risky than having both in against Marquette (a much stronger three point shooting squad). The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus West Virginia's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	49.9	17.7	36.1	44.1
'Eer D	44.0	20.2	35.6	34.8

The Eer's adjusted defense is 89.8, ranked #18, among the elites for Division 1. They are very strong shot defenders (excellent at defending the three and above average defending the two), but are only "above average" (ranked in the upper 1/3 of D1) at keeping their opponents off the line and merely average at forcing turnovers. The Mountaineers are not good defensive rebounders, a weakness which contrasts sharply with a Villanova offensive strength. Though the difference in rebounding rates is relatively small (about 0.5), it suggests Villanova should have a good day rebounding their misses. And that would be very good given the Mountaineers' outstanding shot defense. Another key indicator for West Virginia's defense however is fouling -- they don't. For Villanova, used to netting 25% or more of their points at the line may well have to find another source for posting points, assuming they cannot coax more fouls out of Coach Huggins' squad.

Want to Beat West Virginia? Then...
Shooting is always critical, make them miss and convert your own, but...
1. Couple their misses with poor(er) rebounding. West Virginia can survive a shooting day (eFG%) in the 40s if they rebound their misses strongly, but they cannot survive a shooting day in the 30s, irrespective of their rebounding. West Virginia is 1-2 when shooting in their eFG% is <40%. The only time they won (South Florida), their opponent shot even worse than they did. If the Moutaineers are shooting in the 40s, then limit their offensive boards to the Division 1 average (about 33%). In games where they shot in the 40s and rebounded in the 30s they went 1-1.
2. Convert your shots. Sounds easy, no? Make them miss and hit your own. Like their offense, combine shooting (eFG%) and offensive rebounding. In games where their opponents converted at 50% or higher (eFG%), WVU is 2-3. In games where opponents convert at 40% (but less than 50%) and rebound at Villanova's average or better, the 'Eers are 1-2.
3. Get to the line. In games where WVU's opponents have an FT Rate (FTA/FGA) of 36.8 or higher (Villanova's rate is 44.1), they have gone 3-5.

Finally...
...Villanova lost back-to-back games in the Wells Fargo Center as they staggered to the finish last season. The games, played two weeks apart (with a Pavilion game in between) were against Connecticut and West Virginia. Before that, the Wildcats lost to Notre Dame after they lost to Syracuse (with a trip to Pittsburgh in between). Pomeroy is calling this one for the 'Cats, 65 possessions and a four point winning margin, with a 66% degree of certainty.

Preview -- Syracuse

The Dome Dwellers...
When #7 Villanova visits Syracuse Saturday at noon for the front end of their home-away 2011 season conference series. they should expect to step onto the court of the famed Carrier Dome to the booes (and cheers?) of 30,000 spectators. That is not a misprint, Syracuse University announced earlier this week that 34,000 tickets had been sold, putting Saturday's tilt on course to break the existing on-campus attendance record of 34,616, set at last season's Syracuse GameDay (also versus Villanova)...

Common Opponent
Cincinnati is it actually. Interesting that these two Northeast basketball programs typically have so few common opponents outside of conference play. Each allocates a large part of their out of conference schedule to local competition. For Villanova this presents as Big 5 play (four OOC opponents each season), while for Syracuse, Colgate aside, this translates into a sample of in state opponents from the Western Tier and metropolitan New York City. Their single common opponent is Cincinnati, out of the Big East...

Opponent:	Cincinnati
	Nova	Cuse
Pace	70.8	58.2
Location	VU	SU
Date	9-Jan	15-Jan
	Offense			Defense
	Nova	Cuse		Nova	Cuse
Rating	101.7	115.1		86.2	89.3
eFG%	52.4	62.5		37.7	39.8
TORate	26.8	27.5		18.4	10.3
OR%	25.0	41.7		34.1	31.1
FTA/FGA	78.6	27.1		41.0	18.6
FTM/FGA	66.7	14.6		24.6	8.5
ARate	73.7	48.1		40.9	72.2
Blk%	23.8	16.7		0.0	1.7
Stl%	7.1	6.6		7.1	17.8
PPWS	1.25	1.24		0.84	0.81
2FG%	48.1	61.8		48.8	22.6
3FG%	40.0	42.9		10.0	39.3
FT%	84.8	53.8		60.0	45.5
%2FG	36.1	62.7		65.6	26.9
%3FG	25.0	26.9		9.8	63.5
%FT	38.9	10.4		24.6	9.6

The pace for the Cincinnati-Syracuse game was surprisingly low. A possession-rate closer to Cincinnati's preference than the Orange. This is one of the newer characteristics of the Syracuse program this season -- a willingness to adapt to (or inability to dictate?) the opponent's pace/style of play. How, if Villanova indeed adopts a faster tempo, will Syracuse adjust? Villanova's inability to control the boards in the Cincinnati game, especially when the outcome was a win, is very uncharacteristic of Wildcat games this. Board control, especially on defense is a priority for the Villanova defense. Compare the offensive and defensive ratings of the two squads versus Cincinnati with the season-long ratings scraped from Ken Pomeroy's team pages (below). Generally Villanova's offense is rated better than Syracuse's, while Orange defense is higher ranked than the Wildcats', yet in each played Cincinnati, Syracuse's offense fared better than Villanova's while the Wildcats' defense did a better job on the Bearcats than did the Orange.

Syracuse's best OOC win was a 14 point victory over Michigan State (Big Ten, 11-6, 4-2, RPI #40), a win that looked better last December than it does now. Best conference wins include the 76-59 road win at St. John's (11-6, 4-3, RPI #36) and at home versus Cincinnati (16-3, 3-3, RPI #35), a convincing 15 point win. Their single loss, a 12 point loss at Pittsburgh earlier this week, did little to diminish their tournament resume.

Villanova's marquee out of conference win to date came against the Owls of Temple University (A-10, 13-4, 3-1, RPI #43). The wildcats' best win overall was a 14 point victory over Louisville (15-3, 4-1, RPI #16) in conference play last week. Villanova's two losses came to Top 10 ranked opponents, Tennessee (SEC 12-6, 2-2, RPI #16) in December (which like Michigan State, looked less damaging at the time than it does now...), and Connecticut (15-2, 4-2, RPI #8) last Monday...

Lineups, Rotations...
...Preseason predictions for the Orange's demise were premature. Returning 55.9% of their 2010 minutes and 52.8% of their 2010 points, many (this previewer among them) wondered if the cohesion of last season's team, "Seven Starters" as Coach Boeheim called them, would return as well...and if it did not, how would the staff structure an offense from the parts that were left (or coming in as freshmen). The team has survived the dings and nicks that are the lot of almost every D1 team these days, and has put together a strong post season resume.

Coach Boeheim has abandoned an "iron man" rotation of seven and typically reaches nine deep into his bench which he has done in nearly every game. The starting for the Orange will have a very traditional look. The backcourt at tip-off will feature two guards, sophomore Brandon Triche to handle the ball with junior Scoop Jardine, playing off guard, though either can man the point (and at one time or another during the game, will) while the other runs off screens to find an open spot on the floor. The front court has been a solid set of junior Kris Joseph at the #3, senior Rick Jackson to start at the #4 and freshman Fab Melo to man the #5. When Joseph suffered a concussion and sat at Pittsburgh, sophomore James Southerland took his turn at the #3. Expect substitutions early and often. Melo, a 7-0 import who is farther along defensively than offensively, averages 10.7 minutes per game (game, not half, game), with Southerland, freshman CJ Fair and freshman Baye Moussa Keita drawing minutes as the game progresses. Melo, Keita, Fair, Southerland and Jackson form a flexible #4/#5 rotation, where many times (at least) one of Melo/Jackson/Keita may play alongside Fair or Southerland. Relatively rare of late, even sophomore Mookie Jones may see time. The Orange back court has a similar, flexible rotation that includes freshman Dion Waiters, who typically plays about 16-20 minutes per game (he averages 16.0 minutes through 19 games) to take the point and allow Triche to move to the off guard spot (as Jardine then rotates up to the #3 or out to the bench). Southerland started when Joseph was out, and either he or Fair can rotate "down" to the #3 should the staff look for more length.

Villanova has used the same starting five -- Corey Fisher and Maalik Ways will split the point duties with Fisher shifting to the off guard when the staff wants to push the ball up the floor. Corey Stokes, who has found consistency (more or less) with his outside shot before a hamstring strain in the Cincinnati game diminished his jumper, will take the third guard spot, and play mostly on the wing, though in a pinch either he or guard Dominic Cheek can bring the ball up court and set the offense. The front court positions will be manned by Antonio Pena and Mouphtaou Yarou. Pena is a senior who has started off and on, for the past three seasons, mostly on for the past two. Villanova's rotation can go to 11, but nine, those five players who logged time versus Cincinnati on Sunday and freshman wing James Bell, sophomores Dom Cheek, Maurice Sutton and Isaiah Armwood, is more typical, especially in a closely contested game. Cheek, who like Kris Joseph, sat a game with a ding (in Cheek's case, it was his knee), has practiced and may see action in this game.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
Pace may become a tug of war between the squads, though Syracuse has shown a willingness to adapt to the preferences of the other team. Should there be "accommodation", expect a pace in the 70s. If tempo becomes a point of contention, then expect the game to be played in the high 60s. Villanova's pace, the Connecticut game excepted, has trended up for the past several weeks, a bit counter intuitive given conference games can settle into chess match-paced affairs. A "Four Factors" comparison when Louisville has the ball...

When the Orange has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Cuse O	53.8	17.3	35.6	37.9
Wildcat D	43.6	19.5	27.0	33.5

The Orange offense is ranked #16 according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report, very much among the elites in Division 1. Syracuse does two things very, very well -- they convert their shots to points (especially 2 point attempts, they convert a strong 54.3% of their 2s) and they do not turnover the ball much, giving themselves every opportunity to end the poseesion with a shot attempt, either from the field or on the line. They are good at covering the offensive boards, thereby giving themselves second chance opportunities. This mtachup is crucial for Villanova, as the Wildcats are among the elites for defensive rebounding. In their two losses they were unable to control the defensive boards, allowing their opponents to gather >35% of their misses. Syracuse's biggest weakness comes at the line, they do not shoot free throws particularly well, and will not want to be in a close game that may have to be decided at the line. Villanova has become particulary good at defending the shot, their eFG% defense is ranked #16 in D1. If Villanova struggles to contain Syracuse's offensive rebounding in the first half, look for a half-time adjustment, either a combination of longer players (Armwood, Pena, Yarou in together, possibly with Cheek or Bell and one of Fisher and Wayns for example) or sending three or four to the boards. Expect each staff to juggle their substitutions to gain an advantage on the boards. The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus Syracuse's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	50.8	18.0	36.6	44.2
Cuse D	43.3	21.6	31.5	27.0

The Cuse's adjusted defense is 86.4, ranked #12, among the elites for Division 1. They are strong shot defenders (good at defending both the two and the three, but ranked among the elite at defending the two), and enhance that strength by forcing a high turnover rate, typically causing opponents to lose more than a fifth of their possessions without a shot. When opponents miss however, the Orange are just a touch above average at netting the rebound. Rebounding under Villanova's basket is a strength-to-weakness match up that could prove to be critical to the outcome of the game. The key indicator for Syracuse's defense however is fouling -- they don't. For Villanova, used to netting 25% or more of their points at the line may well have to find another source for posting points.

Want to Beat Syracuse? Then...
Shooting is always critical, make them miss and convert your own, but...
1. Put empty trips on their offense. Syracuse has played three games where their offense averaged less than a point per possession. Their record is 3-1 in those games, and of the three they won (vs. Detroit, vs. Seton Hall and vs. Michigan) their margin of victory averaged 6.3 points. In the rest of their games (15-0, all wins), they averaged a 18.0 point winning margin.
2. Limit second chance opportunities -- rebound under Syracuse's basket. In games where the opponent has held the Orange to <30% of their misses, Syracuse is 3-1, with an average winning margin of 6.0 points.

Finally...
...If you are going to the game, bring binoculars, from the upper decks the court will be about the size of your TV screen. Pomeroy is calling this one for Syracuse, 68 possessions and a six point winning margin for Syracuse, with a 72% degree of certainty.

Preview -- Louisville

Rebuilding/Remolding...
When #18 Louisville visits Villanova Wednesday for their 2011 season conference game. do not treat the casual fans of either team harshly if they continually refer to their game program rosters to identify the players. Hopefully the Wells Fargo Center will provide ones with pictures. For Villanova, the spotlight in the seasons 2007 though 2010 seemed to be mostly on Scottie. And forgive Louisville coach Rick Pitino that his roster was not "final" until they bounced the balls out for Fall Practice. In addition to pictures, Pitino needed a few NCAA appeals to finalize his personnel. The teams that meet on January 21, 2011 will different in many ways from the teams that met nearly a year ago to the day in Louisville...

The teams have played one common opponent, South Florida. And better yet, both were visitors within the last fortnight...

Opponent:	South Florida
	Nova	Ville
Pace	63.5	65.4
Location	USF	USF
Date	6-Jan	9-Jan
	Offense			Defense
	Nova	Ville		Nova	Ville
Rating	130.6	132.6		111.7	118.7
eFG%	67.7	50.8		46.2	49.1
TORate	14.2	10.8		20.5	21.6
OR%	31.8	45.9		44.4	55.9
FTA/FGA	56.3	41.9		56.6	44.8
FTM/FGA	37.5	37.1		41.5	34.5
ARate	75.0	77.8		59.1	88.0
Blk%	18.8	3.2		1.9	5.2
Stl%	9.6	17.1		4.7	4.6
PPWS	1.36	1.16		1.06	1.09
2FG%	52.8	46.2		50.0	45.0
3FG%	75.0	39.1		26.3	38.9
FT%	66.7	88.5		73.3	76.9
%2FG	45.8	41.9		47.9	46.8
%3FG	32.5	31.4		21.1	27.3
%FT	21.7	26.7		31.0	26.0

Louisville's best OOC win was an eight point victory over UNLV (MWC, 13-3, RPI #28). Best conference win is at home vesus Seton Hall (RPI #), a convincing 19 point win that put the Cardinals back into the polls. Of their two losses, each hurt their pride more than their tournament resume. Drexel out of the CAA beat the Cards at home by six points, the indignity of losing to a mid-major stung, but the Dragons have a #56 rank in the RPI -- not a deal-breaker for the Selection Committee. The second loss, by 15 to in-state rival Kentucky, for the second time in two years, was a killer. Kentucky is ranked #6 in the RPI. That loss will not keep them out of the tournament...

Lineups, Rotations...
...Slated to return about 50% of their 2010 minutes and 44% of their points, Louisville had replacements in the pipeline...until August that is. Pitino had a series of "Not comming" announcement through the month before school, and the roster assembled contained mostly the complement players from 2010, with little experience and talent coming off the bench. Some good news late (a won appeal to the NCAA) brought in another front court player, but Jared Swopshire a junior guard/forward, is out for the season with a groin injury and Rakeem Buckles, a sophomore forward and scorer, is out another five or so weeks with a broken finger.

Coach Pitino has nine available players who have logged time in 13 or more of the Cardinal's 15 games. Six of the nine have averaged > 20 minutes per game, while two of the other three have average > 10 minutes per game. In both Big East games the Louisville staff used a 10 man rotation. Look for a starting backcourt of three guards, sophomore Peyton Siva to handle the ball, with senior Preston Knowles and junior Chris Smith at the off-guard and wing spots. The front court has seen a lot of shuffling in the wake of the Buckles and Swopshire injuries. Against a "2 forward" Seton Hall line up Pitino gave the nod to juniors George Goode and Kyle Kuric. Goode is a 6-8'ish forward who weighs in at about 230+ pounds while Kuric is a guard (6-4, 185 pounds). Neither played more than 14 minutes against the Hall, as Pitino rotated a succession of three other forwards and two guards through the game. Against South Florida, a longer front court team, Pitino went with sophomore Stephen Van Tresse (6-9, 235 pounds) and freshman Gorgui Dieng (6-10, 225 pounds), a Huntington Prep player who qualified in mid-October after an appeal. Given the duo's success against the Bulls (22 points, 17 rebounds, 20+ minutes of playing time) and Villanova's most likely starting five, expect Van Tresse and Dieng to get the nod again. Pitino will also call the numbers for sophomore guard Mike Marra (6-5, 200 pounds), Jennings and Kuric. And do not be surprised to see Goode and one other (Russ Smith most likely) sub in to give the others a rest.

Villanova has used the same starting five -- Corey Fisher and Maalik Ways will split the point duties with Fisher shifting to the off guard when the staff wants to push the ball up the floor. Corey Stokes, who has found consistency with his outside shot and emerged as the scoring leader to this point in the season will take the third guard spot, playing mostly on the wing. The front court positions will be manned by Antonio Pena and Mouphtaou Yarou. Pena is a senior who has started off and on, for the past three seasons, mostly on for the past two. Villanova's rotation can go to 11, but nine, those five players who logged time versus Cincinnati on Sunday and freshman wing James Bell, sophomores Dom Cheek, Maurice Sutton and Isaiah Armwood, is more typical, especially in a closely contested game.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
Both teams like to run. A lot. Expect possessions in the low 70s (72?). Villanova's pace has trended up for the past several weeks, a bit counter intuitive given conference games can settle into chess match-paced affairs. Neither team would be uncomfortable with an even faster (than 72) pace, and though Pomeroy projects 72 possessions. A "Four Factors" comparison when Louisville has the ball...

When the 'Ville has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Card O	55.3	19.0	37.4	35.5
Wildcat D	42.4	19.3	26.9	34.7

The 'Villes offense is ranked #13 according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report, very much among the elites in Division 1. Louisville does two things well -- they convert their shots to points (especially 2 point attempts ironically, though they shoot 37.3% from beyond the arc, they convert a whopping 54.8% of their 2s) and they cover the offensive boards, giving themselves second chance opportunities if the first shot does not drop. The Cards' biggest weakness comes at the line, they do not shoot free throws particularly well. Louisville probably does not want to be in a close game that may have to be decided at the line, especially away from home. Villanova has become particulary good at defending the shot, their eFG% defense is ranked #11 in D1. Granted the slate to date has not featured strong shooting teams like Louisville, but expect both the shooting and boards to be areas of strenuous competition between the two squads. If the substitution patterns start to look like a chess match, consider that each staff is probably trying to gain an advantage on the boards or in the lane. The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus Louisville's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	51.3	17.7	36.2	46.8
Card D	43.3	25.4	33.4	41.1

The Card's adjusted defense is 88.9, ranked #25, among the near-elits for Division 1. They are strong shot defenders (good at defending both the two and the three, but ranked among the elite at defending the two), and enhance that strength with a high turnover rate, typically causing opponents to lose more than a quarter of their possessions without a shot. When opponents miss however, the Cardinals are about average at netting the rebound. Rebounding under Villanova's basket is a strength-to-weakness match up that could prove to be critical to the outcome of the game.

Want to Beat Louisville? Then...
Shooting is always critical, make them miss and convert your own, but...
1. Taking away second chance opportunities seems to cause the 'Ville real problems. In their two losses, Drexel and Kentucky both held Louisville to 27% or fewer offensive rebounds. Louisville is 1-2 in games when they do not rebound to 27%.

Finally...
...Early pollsters looked with scepticism at Louisville's homebody out of conference schedule. How good are they really? The two teams are well-matched on their strengths and weakness (of the Four Factors kind), but this is only the second trip out of the state of Kentucky for a team that Pomeroy ranks #258 in experience. On a cold night in Philadelphia a more mature opponent and a (if the 'Cats get the turnout...) hostile crowd may be the margin.

Preview -- Rutgers #01

Old Faces, New Beginnings
Rutgers and Villanova will open their Big East seasons in a noon game on Sunday January 2 at the Pavilion on Villanova's Main Line campus. Each squad returns most of their rosters from 2010, so there will be many familiar faces on both sides of the ball. A new/old face will belong to Mike Rice, in his first season as Rutgers' head coach. Right face, wrong context, as Rice came over from Robert Morris University, the school that took Villanova to overtime as a #15 seed in the 2010 NCAA Tournament. The Colonials bowed, by 3 points, after a very spirited 45 minutes of play. This will be Coach Rice's first trip to the Pavilion as a head coach...

	Nova		Rutgers
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
St. Joseph's	W (H)	+9	L (A)	-6
Marist	W (H)	+37	W (H)	+16
Monmouth	W (A)	+40	W (A)	+23

The Knight's best OOC win was a 16 point victory over Miami FL (ACC, 11-3, RPI #26). Their worst loss came at the hands of North Carolina (ACC, 9-4, RPI #21), a 23 point spanking at Madison Square Garden four days before their Big East opener at Villanova. The outcome is actually a step back from their 14 point 2009 loss (81-67) to the Tar Heels. ...

Lineups, Rotations...
...Coach Rice hit the recruiting trail even before he unpacked his bags. Most of the commitments however, will not be seen until next fall. In the meantime, he found a player or two to round out this season's roster, and maybe contribute more than scout team minutes. The Scarlet Knight back court will most likely feature seniors James Beatty (6-2, 190 lbs), a JUCO who joined the Knights for the 2010 season, and Mike Coburn (6-0, 185 lbs), who has started off and on though his four year career. Sophomore wing Dane Miller (6-7, 215 lbs), gives Rutgers a 'tweener who can play in either the back court or front court as the need arises. The front court will feature red shirt senior Jonathan Mitchell (6-7, 225 lbs), a transfer from Florida and High School teammate of Mike Coburn, who will play the #4, and Gilvydas Biruta (6-8, 230 lbs), a freshman out of St. Benedict's in Newark, NJ.

Coach Rice uses a nine man rotation, look for freshman guard/forward Mike Poole (6-5, 190 lbs), sophomore bfc Austin Johnson (6-8, 250 lbs), fifth year senior forward Robert Lumpkin (6-7, 215 labs) and freshman guard Austin Carroll (6-3, 200 lbs) to log minutes, double digits for each would not be surprising. In that group, Poole is the scorer.

Villanova has used the same starting five -- Corey Fisher and Maalik Ways will split the point duties with Fisher shifting to the off guard when the staff wants to push the ball up the floor. Corey Stokes, who has found consistency with his outside shot and emerged as the scoring leader to this point in the season will take the third guard spot, playing mostly on the wing. The front court positions will be manned by Antonio Pena and Mouphtaou Yarou. Pena is a senior who has started off and on, for the past three seasons, mostly on for the past two. Villanova's rotation can go to 11, but nine, the of players who logged time versus Temple on Thursday, is more typical, espeically in a closely contested game. Freshman wing James Bell, whose rehabilitation has proceeded very well, sophomores Dominic Cheek, Maurice Sutton and Isaiah Armwood logged time in the Temple game. Cheek and Armwood saw 16 and 14 minutes apiece, while Sutton and Bell logged a bit less time.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
Rutgers plays a slightly higher-than-average possession game (68.5 possessions, adjusted according to Ken Pomeroy's Rutgers Team Page -- the D1 average is 67.3), while Villanova prefers a pace just slightly higher. Neither team would be uncomfortable with a faster pace, and though Pomeroy projects 67 possessions, 70+ should not surprise. A "Four Factors" comparison when Rutgers has the ball...

When Rutgers has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Knight O	49.6	17.9	32.9	31.1
Wildcat D	42.4	19.0	25.0	30.8

RU's offense ranks, according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report, in the middle of Division 1 (a bit more than one standard deviation from the mean). Rutgers two problems in converting possessions into points comes from weak offensive rebounding (they do not get more than the average for second chance points) and they do not get to the line much. Their shot conversion rates are...average, not terrible, but not elite either. The S. Knights' biggest weakness comes at the line, they do not shoot free throws particularly well. Rutgers does not want to be in a close game that may have to be decided at the line. Villanova has become particulary good at defending the shot, their eFG% defense is ranked #12 in D1. Granted the OOC slate to this point has not featured strong shooting teams, but the difference here suggests a long afternoon for the Scarlet Knights, particularly if they do not start out strong, as the Wildcats are also very strong defensive rebounders (ranked #9). If the Knights miss their shots, they will most likely not get many second chances. The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus Rutgers' defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	50.1	16.9	35.3	42.7
Knight D	45.3	25.2	29.6	38.8

The Knights adjusted defense is 95.4, ranked #84 for Division 1, definitely among the top third of the division. They are credible shot defenders (good at defending both the two and the three, but ranked among the elite at defending the two), and enhance that strength with a very strong turnover rate, typically causing opponents to lose a quarter of their possessions without a shot. When opponents miss, the Scarlet Knights are likely to net the rebound, another significant improvement over last season's squad. Rebounding under Villanova's basket is a strength-to-strength match up that could prove to be critical to the outcome of the game.

Want to Beat Rutgers? Then...
The most significant determinates for this matchup include shooting and rebounding. And it is not close...
1. Hit your shots -- oddly more important than defending their shooting. The S. Knights have lost every game where they have allowed their opponents to post an eFG% of 55.6% or better, and have won every game where they limited their opponents to 48.7 or worse. Villanova averages 50.1%, and has shot better than 48% eFG in nine of their 12 games. Stokes and company may shoot below that 55.6% threshold, but they will not shoot 48% or less.
2. Control the offensive boards. Rutgers grabs 32.9% of their misses, and is 4-3 when they grab a lower percentage. They are 1-2 when they have grabbed less than 28% of their misses. Villanova typically limits opponents to 25%, and has limited opponents to fewer than 32% of their misses in nine of their 12 games.
3. Control the defensive boards. When Rutgers is 1-3 when limited to <28% of their misses. Villanova typically limits their opponents to 25.1% of their misses. Rutgers typically grabs 32.9% of their misses. Villanova has yielded that high a percentage of their opponents' offensive boards only three times. The 'Cats are 9-0 when limiting opponents to 32% or less.

Finally...
...Rutgers' defense is good, but the 'Cats have faced better this season. After the big game with Temple (elite defense, good offense) the fans can only hope that Villanova has had time to refocus and prepare for the Scarlet Knights.

I will be live blogging the game for Rush the Court tomorrow. Drop by and chat if you have the chance.

Guest Contributor Pico Dulce: Preview of Villanova at St. John's

Villanova travels to Madison Square Garden on Saturday to play the St. John's Red Storm. Pico Dulce of the east coast bias and Johnny Jungle Blogs shares his thoughts about the St. John's Red Storm and what the Wildcats can expect when they tip off at noon.

Things you should know about St. John’s:

The fans have found the team frustrating in Big East play. Personally, I believe people’s expectations were pretty high for a team that won 6 conference games (and a Big East tournament game) last year, beating the lame, the weak, and Notre Dame and Georgetown, who played like a little bit of both. St. John’s scored about .11 points per possession less than their opponents last year, and returned the same core. Familiarity breeds greater efficiency in college ball, but that’s a huge gap to make up – even if the name stars left the league. So far this year, the team is .5 points per possession below their opponents.

Something I strongly believe: this team is improved. “Improve” is a far cry from “contend”, and the fans are upset about not contending. Rightfully so; 6 years, with any extra leniency for the moral high ground and better relationships with AAU players, is a long time for fans to watch a team struggle to get near .500 on the season. And coming off another loss where the Red Storm seemed to have a chance, and once again lose it in a flurry of poor play, defensive breakdowns, and the usual scoring drought… things aren’t going well.

St. John’s has a lot of depth – and now Anthony Mason Jr. is back. So 10 guys will see court time in most games. The team’s point guards are not scorers; the points come generally from a plethora of wing players. Style-wise, you’ll see a lot of ball screens with the occasional off-ball screen for a shooter; St. John’s doesn’t pick and roll much, the screens are intended to give the ballhandler a clearer look at the basket. Defensively, there will be some token pressure and the occasional zone look, but the team is best – and usually – in the halfcourt man with bigs coming out to bother opposing ballhandlers.

The closest thing to an alpha dog player for St. John’s is DJ Kennedy, who will go to the basket in crucial midgame situations; his jump shot is vastly improved, his drives are crafty, and his rebounding is solid. At the end of games, Dwight Hardy has been the guy; he can drive and shoot the 3-pointer. Against smaller teams, Justin Brownlee and Sean Evans are solid rebounders and can score off the dribble… or make mistakes off the dribble. Paris Horne is a scoring threat from the outside; when he drives to the hoop he never seems to get the call. Justin Burrell has been more aggressive in looking for his shot. Anthony Mason Jr. hasn’t been crisp with the jump shot yet, but contributes with rebounding and length on defense.

Speaking of defense, Dele Coker has made some strides this year in playing without fouling, rebounding better (I am surprised he wasn’t credited with any boards against U Conn, he was positioned well on the glass and boxed out) and swatting shots. Burrell and Justin Brownlee can block some shots as well. Paris Horne is considered the team’s tough perimeter defender, but DJ Kennedy can defend well.

Thanking Pico for his thoughts, I want to add that I will be at the Garden, hosting a live blog for the folks at Rush the Court. After you open the game thread on your favorite message board, open a second tab, come over to Rush the Court and contribute to the commentary and dialog live from the game.

Preview -- Georgetown University

The Wildcats and Hoyas meet for the 67th time at the (Wachovia) Center in downtown Philadelphia at noon on Sunday. Georgetown holds the edge, 39-27, and have won the last five meetings, four of those games by five points or less. The Hoyas, ranked #12 by the AP poll, bring Wooden Award nominee junior forward Greg Monroe to counter #4 ranked Villanova's own Wooden Award nominee, senior guard Scottie Reynolds. And the big question is, "Where is Bob Donato on Sunday?"...

Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
The 'Cats (15-1, 4-0, #9 RPI) and Hoyas (13-2, 4-1, #18 RPI) share several opponents this year:

	Nova		GTown
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Temple	L (A)	-10	W (H)	+1
DePaul	W (H)	+25	W (A)	+17
Marquette	W (H)	+2	L (H)	-3
Marquette	W (A)	+2

Georgetown hosted Temple in their second game of the season, taking a 46-45 decision. Villanova played the Owls in mid-December (12/13), dropping a 75-65 decision. Temple (A10, 15-3, 3-0 #9 RPI) is Georgetown's best win to date, though Butler (Hzn, 13-4, 6-0, #19 RPI) and Connecticut (11-5, 2-3 #16 RPI) will most likely draw some attention from the Selection Committee as well. The Hoyas have no bad losses, Marquette (10-6, 1-3, #76) is the lowest (RPI) ranked opponent they have lost to to date. Villanova has a number of solid wins, counted among them Louisville (12-6- 3-2, #39 RPI), Dayton (A10, 13-4, 2-1 #32 RPI) and Mississippi State (SEC, 13-3, 1-1, #49 RPI) the best so far. Mississippi State and Dayton were beaten on a neutral court at the Puerto Rico Tip off in November. Villanova's sole loss is to Big 5 rival Temple on 12/13.

Lineups, Rotations...
Coach Thompson set his starting five in the first game of the season, and has stayed with a three guard set of Chris Wright (junior, 6-1, 208 lb) at the #1, Austin Freeman (junior 6-3 ½, 227 lb) and Jason Clark (soph, 6-3, 170 lb) on the wing, anchored in the front court by Julian Vaughn (junior transfer, 6-9, 247 lb) and Greg Monroe (soph, 6-11, 247 lb) ever since. Monroe may draw the attention (assorted NBA scouts & the Los Angles Athletic Club), but Freeman and Wright power the Hoyas' offense. Freeman has a scorching 44.5% accuracy on three point shots (25-56), while Wright, with a forward-like FTrate of 34.4%, drives the lane, gets to the line (2nd on the team behind Monroe) and converts, at a 81.5% rate. Niki Mersheriakov's transfer (to Wake Forest?!) makes an already short rotation even shorter. Hollis Thompson (a freshman 6-6, 180 pound forward) has consistently logged double digit minutes, posting a career-high 16 points against Lafayette in late November. He will most likely be first off the bench, followed by Henry Sims (a sophomore, 6-10 226 pound center), who has logged time in all but one (Connecticut) game this season. Sims best effort came against American Univesity (12 points, 4 rebounds) in early December. Jerrelle Benimon (a freshman 6-7, 210 pound forward) has appeared in the Hoyas' last four games, logging double-digit minutes in the last two (Connecticut & Seton Hall). Way down at the end of the bench Coach Thompson may find three more guards, 6-3 freshman Vee Sanford, 6-6 freshman Steven Stepka and 6-0 junior Ryan Dougherty. There may be more productive days ahead for Sanford and Stepka, but unless the Hoyas are up (or down) by a lot, I don't expect to see them after warmups, as the starting three guards, Wright, Freeman and Clark take 84%, 84% and 82% of the minutes respectively. The Hoyas circulate their front court, Vaughn and Thompson get a bit over 50% of the minutes apiece, with Sims taking a bit less than 25%. Should any of the guards need to sit (for fouls or a blow), expect to see another forward on the court.

Coach Wright will most likely start a pair of guards, 6-1 junior Corey Fisher and 6-2 senior Scottie Reynolds alongside a pair of 'tweeners/wings, 6-5 senior Reggie Redding and 6-5 junior Corey Stokes, anchored by a bfc, 6-8 junior Antonio Pena. The staff has an embarrassment of richs off the bench, beginning with 6-1 freshman guard Maalik Wayns, who has already been cited twice for Big East Freshman of the Week. For substitutions on the wing/front court, the staff can look to 6-6 sophomore transfer Taylor King, a strong sixth man candidate, who can play on the wing but has anchored the #4 in some rotations, freshman 6-6 Dominic Cheek, New Jersey's POY last season for St. Anthony's in Jersey City, or 6-7 freshman Isaiah Armwood, who hit the winning shot against George Mason in the Wildcats' opening game in Puerto Rico last November. In the paint/low post the staff can call on Mouphtaou Yarou, a well regarded 6-10 freshman who started two games before being sidelined with a viral infection (since treated and controlled) and 6-11 red shirt freshman Maurice Sutton, who filled in for Yarou earlier in the season and started seven games in the out of conference leg of the season.

A Few Thoughts...
...Pomeroy calculates a three point (78-75) Villanova win in a game to be played for 71 possessions. 71 possessions would work well for Villanova. The 'Cats like to run and Georgetown may be playing a bit more uptempo, game-for-game, than they have for several seasons (their adjusted pace this season, per Pomeroy's Scout Report Page is just over 66 possessions (ranked at #244 in D1). For their four road games however, the Hoyas really take the air out of the ball, playing for something closer to 60 possessions. Georgetown can keep pace with 71 possessions, if they hit their shots and limit turnovers. Georgetown has a relatively high turnover rate in conference games (over 20%) and a low number of offensive rebounds. Historically those two shortcomings were not fatal to the Hoyas' chances to win. Last season, and carrying into this season, a bad game in one ares has usually been more than off set by a strong game elsewhere -- against Butler, Georgetown lost 28.7% of their possessions, but shot well (51% eFG%) and had an unusually strong offensive rebounding percentage (42.9%); against Temple the Hoyas had a disasterous day from the field (eFG% of 39.3%) and lost over 25% of their possessions, but they compensated by getting to the line more 45% and stifling Temple's shot efficiency. That the Owls had difficulty rebounding was a benefit too. A high percentage of turnovers (and poor offensive rebounding) can be balanced by strong three point shooting. The Wildcat's perimeter defense may be severely tested by Freeman and Clark.

Reading List
For those looking for some background on the two teams, try these links...
1. Villanova Game Notes
2. Georgetown Game Notes
3. A Washington Post update on Georgetown.
4. Villanova Viewpoint's history of the series.
5. ESPN's Weekend Watch writeup.
6. NY Times background piece on Mouphtaou Yarou.
7. IBBW's Preview.
8. The Casual Hoya and IBBW collaborated on a mutual Q&A session.

I will be at the Center, hosting a live blog for the folks at Rush the Court. After you open the game thread on your favorite message board, open a second tab, come over to Rush the Court and contribute to the commentary and dialog live from the game.

Preview Louisville #02

The Wildcats, having survived a quarter-final thriller Thursday, now face the Cardinals of the University of Louisville in the 7pm semi-final game of the Big East Tournament. Villanova, seeded #4, earned the right to play Friday night by virtue of their 76-75 win over a James-less Marquette squad in the 2pm Thursday quarter-final game. The Cardinals earned the #1 seed by racking up a 16-2 record during the Big East regular season. They then eliminated the Providence Friars (from more than the Big East Tournament...) with a 73-55 thrashing in front of 19,000+ fans at Madison Square Garden.

Previous Meetings...
The Wildcats and Cardinals played a nearly dead even game, won (by a point) by Louisville when the 'Cats left the ball (literally...) on the rim as the clock expired. The game, played back on January 10 at the Wachovia (sorry, I can't remember who swallowed Wachovia last fall...) Center, was the 2nd Big East game for Louisville, but it launched them onto a "perfect" January. They went 8-0 through the month, not losing until they met Connecticut on February 2. After that loss, the Cardinals would lose only one more time, a good old fashioned road beat down at the hands of the Irish.

Pomeroy, Pythagoras...
The log5 probabilities show Villanova has a 37.7% chance of taking this game. The teams will probably play for about 71 possessions, 4-5 above the D1 average, about the pace of their last game. Looking at offensive/defensive efficiencies, My calculations suggest the Wildcats will lose this one by a 3 point margin. Louisville has athletic wings (Williams and Clark), and though they tend to run at about the D1 pace, they can keep up if need be (West Virginia).

What Others Say
Looking around for more previews? Try...
Grab a comfy chair and dig into Publisher's preview & background over at Villanova Viewpoint.
David over at Villanovan Sports Blog provides a recap of each team's season since they met in January.
Over at the New Big East Report the NBE Blogger posted a quick preview complete with generalizations about each squad and links to ticket sites in case you are motivated to get in for the game tonight.

Marquette #03

The Wildcats meet the Warriors in the 2pm quarter final game in this season's Big East Tournament. Villanova is seeded #4, earning the pass to the quarter final round by virtue of their 7-2 run through the last ½ of their Big East regular season schedule. The Warriors earned the #5 seed based on a 10-6 record. They started very strongly, running out to a 9-0 record before limping home with a 3-6 consclusion.

Previous Meetings...
The Wildcats and Warriors split their two games this season, both teams winning on their home courts. The Warriors won in Milwaukee, 79-72, on January 1, but the Wildcats broke back, taking the game played at the Pavilion 102-84, on February 10. The teams played the first game for 72 possessions and the second game for 77 possessions. Both games were played well above the D1 average for possessions (about 66-67).

Lately...
The biggest news since their February 10 meeting was Dom James' season-ending injury. James, a four year starter, broke his foot early in Marquette's February 25 game versus Connecticut. Marquette lost that game and the three that followed, their losing run broken when they smashed St. John's yesterday, 74-45. Marquette's Offensive & Defensive Ratings going into the Connecticut game were 114.3/96.8, producing an efficiency differential of .175 (very good). The Warriors' ratings put them in the Top 5 for both offense and defense in the conference. In the 5 games since James' injury Marquette has limped along with ratings at 108.0/108.8, the efficiency differential is -.009, not promising. Their game versus St. John's erased a much larger offense/defense gap. Marqutte's major area of weakness, absent James, is shot efficiency (eFG%). In the four games since his injury they have nearly switched their offensive eFG% with their defensive eFG%.

Pomeroy, Pythagoras...
The log5 probabilities show Villanova has a 56.4% chance of taking this game. The teams will probably play for about 70 possessions, slightly above the D1 average, but well below the pace of their last game. Looking at offensive/defensive efficiencies post James is not promsing for Marquette. My calculations suggest the Wildcats will take this game by a double digit margin. If the Wildcats score 80 points they should win.

What Others Say
Looking around for more previews? Try...
Rob Lowe over at Cracked Sidewalks. Rob gives a stats-first analysis with keys to the game. Rob also links to a good many Villanova blogs at the end of his review.
The PDN's Mike Kern slapped together a a quickie preview, mostly from "Staff and wire reports", according to the banner. Guess he was on his way out the door to catch the Owls game. He did put a good deal more time and effort in on a focus piece on senior forward Dwayne Anderson. If you can read only one Mike Kern story today, read the one about Dwayne...

Preview -- Providence #2

The Wildcats will close out their Big East regular season when they host the Providence College Friars at the Pavilion Thursday evening. Providence was Villanova's 3rd mirror (home-n-away) opponent in conference play this season. The Wildcats beat the Friars, 94-91, in a track meet at the Dunkin Donuts Center back on February 4th. Nova leads this series 49-34...

So Far, & What They are Playing For...
...Since their first meeting, Providence (18-11, 10-7, RPI #69) has entered an alternating win-loss "doublet" sequence (LLWWLLWW...) that they have run to a 10-7 Big East Conference record so far. An RPI-based comparison will highlight Villanova and Providence's body of work this season...

		vs RPI			Conference
	RPI	1-50	51-100	>100	Overall	Home	Away
Providence	69	2-7	3-4	18-0	10-7	6-3	4-4
Villanova	14	5-6	6-0	16-0	12-5	6-2	6-3

The highlight of their season so far is the 67-57 win over then #1 Pittsburgh at the Dunkin Donuts on February 24th. That win, combined with their above .500 conference record are two strong points on the resume the Selection Committee will mull over at the end of next week. A run in the Big East Tournament will bolster those credentials. A road win over a Top 25 team would help too. Providence is in contention for a Tuesday night bye in the Big East Tournament. A win at Villanova would virtually guarantee a Big East Tournament bye into Wednesday night. Villanova is in the hunt for the double bye at NYC. They hold the tie-breaker over Marquette, and a win over Providence gives them no worse than a tie with Marquette (no matter how the Warriors do in their last game with Syracuse)...

Roster Notes...
...The Friars have changed very little over the month, Coach Davis has spent February fine tuning his basic 8 man rotation. McDermott and Kale will start in the front court with Randall Hanke rotating in for 10+ minutes. Coach Davis goes with experience in the back court, starting Curry at the point, with Efejuku and Xavier on the wing. Brian McKenzie and Marshon Brooks will see double digit minutes on the court as well. Brooks has emerged as the Friar's spark plug off the bench. His offensive rating, as of 3/1, was 111.5, an outstanding efficiency, though down a bit since early February (no doubt from the attention he has drawn), but still above the team's efficiency (110.9). Efejuku has improved over the course of February, bumping his offensive rating (according to Pomeroy's Providence Team Page) from 108 to 113 while maintaining his shot% (at about 23%), a very good sign of his development.

Villanova's staff has started Dante Cunningham & Shane Clark in the front court for the last 11 games, most of the Big East season, expect it to continue tonight in this, the last game these seniors will play at the Pavilion. Dwayne Anderson, the third starting senior, will hold down the wing, with Scottie Reynolds and Reggie Redding manning the back court spots. Clark's offensive rebounding has been outstanding (with one or two exceptions) during this run. Reggie Redding has developed nicely, contributing where he is needed (points, defense, rebounding) when one of the others struggles. The rotation runs out to 8 men, so expect the Coreys, Fisher and Stokes to see time in the back court (Fish) and wing (Stokes), with Antonio Pena pulling some time in relief (or alongside of) Cunningham in the paint. Pena had 13 very effective minutes in the Notre Dame game, it would be terrific to see him have another productive outing before the Big East Tournament/NCAA...

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
With an adjusted tempo of 73.1, Providence is among the "fastest" D1 teams (ranked #12 -- the D1 average is still 66.7). The pace may suit the 'Cats just fine, as they have run off a series of uptempo wins in February (defense does seem to suffer...). Expect the pace for this game to go well into the 70s. The Friars have managed to maintain their offensive and defensive efficiencies throughout February (as the chart below shows), a very difficult accomplishment in the heart of the Big East season.

Comparing the elements that most influence Providence's rating with Villanova's defensive factors...

When Providence has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Friar O	51.0	19.0	36.5	39.1
Wildcat D	47.1	22.0	30.8	36.7

The Friars are more efficient at converting 2FGAs (52.5, #37 by Ken Pomeroy) than 3FGAs (32.2%, #256, also per Pomeroy), a bit paradoxical given Providence is among those D1 teams that are more inclined to shoot 3s (34.8% of their FGAs are 3FGAs, ranking them #115 among D1 schools). The Wildcats, committed to limiting conversions inside the arc, are currently holding opponents to a 45.3% 2FGA conversion rate. Their "shut down the inside" bias sets up an inside struggle with the Friars. Who will shoot tonight? In descendng order, expect shots from Brooks (26.7), Xavier (23.9), Efejuku (23.5) and Hanke (21.7). From beyond the arc, look for Jeff Xavier (-47.5), Brian McKenzie (33.6) or Marshon Brooks (-17.9) as those three are the most "outside" scorers on the squad, according to Kenvin Pelton's inside/outside formula (each player's score is listed in parenthesis). Efejuke, who came to Friar Town with the reputation as a mad bomber, has developed a bias towards inside scoring (18.5). Expect him to take a lot of shots (he is on the court a good deal), but will take the ball to the cup if the lane is open. Hanke is an extremely efficient scorer -- his eFG% is a Roy Hibbert-like 65.6 (remember, he takes no 3s).

The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus Providence's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	51.7	18.8	36.1	43.4
Friar D	50.2	20.2	36.2	29.3

The eFG% contrast suggests the 'Cats should have a good night from the field. And if they miss, they should have a few 2nd chance opportunities. The Friar's (unlike the Irish) force turnovers, don't expect another 5 turnover night. What they don't do is foul. The margin of expected victory is >10 however, so FTMs may not play a big role tonight. But if the score is closer (a 1-2 possession game), those foul-induced points may not be available...

Want to Beat the Friars? Then...
Shooting dominates as a critical factor for both squads. But for Villanova, effectively limiting opponent's second chance points is becoming an important key as well. Both teams appear to have difficulty winning when the pace rises to 71 or higher.
1. Defend their shooting -- When the Friar's eFG% was 50.0 or lower they were 5-7. When they were held to 44.7 or less they went 4-7.
2. Hit your shots -- Villanova's eFG% has been 52.0 or better (Georgetown aside) in the last week or so of February. When the conversion rate has been that high, Providence's record is 3-8. Nova's record when they have converted at 49.0 or better is 11-0.
3. Limit Turnovers -- The Friars are 5-5 when their opponents have a turnover rate of 18.8 or less. The 'Cats are 13-1 when they turn the ball over at that rate or lower.

Finally...
...Carrots & sticks -- there are rewards and penalties for both teams tonight. Given the lateness of the hour, each is a good deal more tangible right now. Losing puts the Wildcats back to #5 seed and cheering for Paul Harris and the Orange (not something I want to do the last weekend of the regular season...). The 'Cats are looking at a #3/#4 seed in the Dance, a loss probably strengthens the argument for a #4 rather than a #3. The Friars want a Dance bid; the last chance for the McDermott, Kale, Efejuku (and with his redshirt year...) Hanke class. That group entered with so much promise four years ago, but aside from an NIT bid in their sophomore year, no life after the BET. These guys are very close this year.

Per Ken Pomeroy's Villanova Team Page, this game should go for about 74 possessions (both team's comfort zone), with Nova taking a 14 point win. Pomeroy's degree of certainty (87%) is well within a comfort range (near certainty?). Coupled with the margin of victory, this suggests the game should not be especially close -- not a 1 - 2 possession game. But of course that was also projected for the Georgetown game last weekend...

Preview -- Notre Dame

As the latest winter storm builds over Philadelphia (real snow, not an obscure reference to the aftermath of the Georgetown loss), the Wildcats take their leave and travel to the hinterlands of Indiana, where they will engage the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame University at the Joyce Center, the sixth program whose season is "on the brink". Notre Dame, losing only senior front court player Rob Kurz, was a consensus preseason choice to finish among the Big East's double-bye teams. The Irish did not disappoint, rolling through their OOC schedule to a late December 8-2 record, the two hiccups (North Carolina, Ohio State) more or less understandable. Their Big East season has been a very different story as Notre Dame stumbled to a 7-9 record so far (15-12 overall), that featured a nasty 7 game losing streak (6 in conference, the last to the PAC 10's UCLA). Their loss to Connecticut Saturday gurantees the Irish will finish with, at best, a .500 conference record. Villanova and Notre Dame have played 30 games in a series that dates back to 1970. Nova leads 16-14...

Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
Notre Dame (15-12, 7-9, RPI #40) pulled out of their 7 game skid with a 33 point thumping of Louisville. That 90-57 win was the opening game in the current 4-2 run to close out the season. An RPI-based comparison will highlight Villanova and Notre Dame's body of work this season...

		vs RPI			Conference
	RPI	1-50	51-100	>100	Overall	Home	Away
Notre Dame	68	3-10	1-1	13-1	7-9	5-2	2-7
Villanova	16	5-6	4-0	14-0	11-5	6-2	5-3

Notre Dame's worst loss is to St. John's -- the Johnnies (RPI #145) handed the Irish a 71-65 road loss on 1/3/09. ...

Lineups, Rotations...
...Notre Dame's starting lineup has not changed this season. Senior Zach Hillesland's (6-9, 233lbs) status aside, head coach Mike Brey has started junior bf Luke Harangody (6-8, 251lbs) in the front court, with senior guards Ryan Ayers (6-7, 210lbs) and Kyle McAlarney (6-0, 195lbs) on the wing. Junior Tory Jackson (5-11, 193lbs) will run the point. Coach Brey has used an 8 man rotation for most games -- the next three are sophomore guard Ty Nash (6-8, 220lbs), junior guard Jon Peoples (6-3, 215lbs) and senior bf/c Luke Zeller (6-10, 235lbs). Who starts in Hillesland's spot, should rumors be true, will depend on what skill set Coach Brey wants to bring to the start of the game. Hillesland is a good rebounder and passer, but does not demand "his shot" often.

Villanova's staff has settled on the starting lineup of Dante Cunningham along with Shane Clark in the front court, and Dwayne Anderson on the wing with Scottie Reynolds and Reggie Redding in the back court. These 5 have started the last 7 games (Senior Night excepted). It is a safe to expect the run continue with the Georgetown game. Clark and Anderson have skills sets that have provem to be a good complement to Dante's own front court skills. While more than a few of the Nova faithful held their breath when Clark first started, he has proven to be extremely effective on the boards, and an efficient 4th (or so) option on offense. He has made offensive rebounding his specialty, and DePaul game aside, has done a masterful job getting the 'Cats 2nd (and 3rd) chances. Reggie Redding has had a series of strong outings lately, the time invested in his development appears to be generating returns. The Coreys, Fisher and Stokes will see time in the back court (Fish) and wing (Stokes), and given that Monroe and Summers have developed into a solid front court, I would also expect to see Antonio Pena get time as well.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
With an adjusted tempo of 68.6, Notre Dame games run nearly 2 possessions above the D1 average (66.7). Lately the 'Cats appear to do better running rather than walking. Expect the pace for this game to go into the 70s. Irish teams under Coach Mike Brey have developed a reputation for potent offenses; this edition carries on that tradition with a ranking of #5 (overall, #2 among Big East teams) for offensive efficiency (118.3 adjusted, per Ken Pomeroy). Note the 'Cats are ranked 7th in the Big East, #28 (113.5) overall. Comparing the elements that most influence Notre Dame's rating with Villanova's defensive factors...

When Notre Dame has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Irish O	50.7	13.7	33.1	26.4
Wildcat D	47.1	21.9	30.8	36.7

I was surprised that Notre Dame's eFG% was not higher (they are ranked #113 overall, #9 in the Big East). The Irish are more efficient at converting 3FGAs (39.3, #25 by Ken Pomeroy) -- that scales to a 59.3% for 2s -- than 2FGAs (46.4%, #238, also per Pomeroy). The Wildcats, committed to limiting conversions inside the arc, are currently holding opponents to a 45.5% 2FGA conversion rate. Their "shut down the inside" bias could, if not adjusted for the competition, work against the Wildcats in this game. The Irish are a bit more inclined than the average D1 team, to take an outside shot -- about 33.9% of their FGAs come from beyond the arc (#143). Who would take those shots? McAlarney 1st and foremost, followed by (using percentage of 3FGAs/FGAs) Ayers (68.6%) and then Zeller (67.1%). Each is relatively accurate too, Ayers converting at a 41.3%, Zeller at a less accurate 34.4%. Notre Dame excels at turnovers -- they don't. They are ranked #1 by Pomeroy at low turnover rates (13.7, just over 1 in 8 possessions lost). Tory Jackson is ranked #203 in Pomeroy's top 500 for assist rate; he will set the table and either McAlarney or Harangody will finish. Between them, those two took nearly 1 of every 2 FGAs taken (45.5%) when they are on the floor together. They form a classic inside (Harangody) - outside (McAlarney) combination. Harangody, last season's BE POY takes 33.2% of the possessions and 34.3% of the shot when he is on the court. McAlarney takes 19.4% of the possessions and 21.3% of the shots. Each has about the same assist rate (15.0 & 16.4 respectively), suggesting they look for their own shot first, but do pass to the open man. Four of five in Notre Dame's starting lineup are ranked in the upper half of the conference for assists, according to Ken Pomeroy. Behind Harangody and McAlarney, Luke Zeller, Jackson and Ayers wait for their shots. Peoples, Nash and Hillesland play more limited roles in the offense, tending to defer to others on the court, each has an assist rate of about 10% or higher (15.2, 9.8 & 15.5 respectively). Nash, Peoples, Hillesland and Zeller along with Harangody take care of the boards. If Luke Harangody does not have the offensive rebound, look for Nash, Hillesland, Peoples or Zeller to have it.

The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus Notre Dame's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	51.6	19.2	36.5	44.3
Irish D	48.8	14.7	30.6	26.8

The eFG% contrast suggests the 'Cats shoot a bit better than the Irish, and Notre Dame does not defend the shot quite as well as Villanova. Notre Dame defeds the 3FGA (33.3, #119) better than the 2FGA (48.3, #197). Do not expect another turnover-impeded performance from the Wildcats; Notre Dame ranks #343 (out of #344) in defensive turnover rates. The Irish will rebound however. If Notre Dame is average on the offensive boards, they are decidedly better at defensive rebounding. Expect Harangody (ranked #13 with a tremendous 26.6% rebounding rate) to lead, complemented by Nash, Hillesland and Zeller to give Clark, Anders, Cunningham and Pena all they can handle for 2nd chance opportunities...

Want to Beat Notre Dame? Then...
The leading indicator is again shot efficiency. On both sides of the ball.
1. Contest their shots -- the 'Cats have given a few poor shooting teams very big nights (Rutgers). Holding down their scoring efficiencies would provide a big step to winning this game as this appears to the strongest factor for winning and losing. When Notre Dame shoots to less than their eFG% (50.7) or lower, they have gone 4-10. When held to Nova's defensive eFG% or lower, they are 2-8.
2. Hit your shots -- When the Wildcats have an eFG% of 50.0 or better they are 16-1.
3. Limit their 2nd Chance Opportunities -- the Irish are average offensive rebounders, Harangody's outstanding individual numbers (11.7, #148) notwithstanding. When held to that rebounding rate Notre Dame is 4-9.
4. Limit turnovers -- the Irish do not force turnovers, on defense, so if the 'Cats can limit their turnover rate to less than Notre Dame's defensive rate (14.7), their chances improve. Notre Dame is 7-9 when opponents turn it over at less than their rate. When the 'Cats have turned it over at 19.2 (their rate) or less, they have gone 12-1. Notre Dame is 11-11 when their opponents turn it over at Villanova's rate.

Finally...
...It is the last week of the semester and every under achieving team in the Big East (like every under achieving student) senses the urgency that comes with each diminishing chance. Notre Dame really needs this game. At 7-9 they have to run the table (and do a bit of work in the BET) to work themselves back into the NCAA discussion. Do the Wildcats feel the same urgency? Is pulling a #3 seed and drawing the Philadelphia pod for the 1st weekend incentive enough?

Per Ken Pomeroy's Villanova Team Page, this game should go for about 70 possessions (both team's comfort zone), with Nova dropping a 1 point decision. Pomeroy's degree of certainty (43%) is just below a "comfortable" margin of certainty, and coupled with the margin, 1 point, suggests this could be a 1-2 possession game.

Roster Notes...
Notre Dame front court player Zach Hillesland is out according to a Chicago Tribune report with a severe sternum bruise sustained Saturday against Connecticut.

Other Previews...
The guys at IBBW have a good preview with keys to the game.
Pete over at Let's Go Nova stresses how much Notre Dame wants this game.
Tim at Nova News provides a good many facts about Notre Dame, then gives his prediction (you will have to follow the link and read for yourself).
The anonymous blogger over at the NBE Report writes a detailed preview and provides links to more commercials or ink previews (mostly from midwest papers). Which is which? Hint...the ones underlined twice take you to resume writers and gaming sites.
Fact over at Fact on Villanova Sports writes an essay listing everything he hates about Notre Dame. And a few things he likes. And then he gives a prediction.
For a glimpse at a Notre Dame take on the game, visit the Black and Green Blog, where the blogger writes a concise summary of the important elements.