Preview -- West Virginia

Off Script...
#8 Villanova hosts West Virginia University Saturday at noon in a game that will decide who keeps pace with Pittsburgh (at the top of the Big East standings) and Notre Dame, currently the sole #2 in the conference. Both teams have taken circuitous routes to this place. The Wildcats thought they would go nine (at least) deep with their blue ribbon sophomore class progressing nicely, but pushed by their two freshmen recruits, James Bell and JayVaughn Pinkston. Bell, feared at one point to lose the season, has rehabbed and gets a few minutes each game. Pinkston, out on discipline issues, should rejoin the team next season. The Sophomore Progress Report is mixed, with the jury still out on several well regarded players. For West Virginia, the major action has been off the court. ...

Common Opponents...
...Conference opponents only for common foes, as the two teams run in different D1 "circles". Villanova fills a large part of it's OOC dance card with Philadelphia teams (the Big 5), while West Virginia has similar local rivals centered in the greater Pittsburgh metro area (Robert Morris, Duquesne). Of their conference opponents, good luck trying to decypher what has gone on before. +30 versus Providence? -15 on the road?! That both teams sport a 4-2 record against that common slate is strange indeed. The absence of a discernable treand confirms what those who have watched the games this season suspect -- the Big East, as has most of the power conferences this year, is having a chaotic, wide open race for most of the conference tournament seeds so far...

	Nova		WVU
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
South Florida	W (A)	+12	W (H)	+10
Georgetown	L (H)	-3	W (A)	+6
Providence	L (A)	-15	W (H)	+30
Louisville	W (H)	+14	L (A)	-1
Cincinnati	W (H)	+11	W (A)	+11
Marquette	W (H)	+5	L (A)	-5

West Virginia's best OOC win was a three point victory over Vanderbilt (SEC, 15-6, 3-4, RPI #24), a win that looks better to the RPI than Ken Pomeroy. Pomeroy values the 'Eers win over Duquesne (A-10, 15-5, 8-0 #28 Kenpom) a bit more. Best conference wins include the 65-59 road win at Georgetown (17-5, 6-4, RPI #5) and at home versus Cincinnati (16-3, 3-3, RPI #35), a convincing 15 point win. Their single loss, a 12 point loss at Pittsburgh earlier this week, did little to diminish their tournament resume.

Villanova's marquee out of conference win is still the Temple University (A-10, 16-5, 6-2, RPI #35) game, a four point decision, in December. The Wildcats' best win overall was their 11 point road victory over Syracuse (17-4, 6-4, RPI #16) in conference play last month. Villanova's worst loss, a 15 point spanking at the hands of Providence (BE 14-9, 3-7, RPI #99) also last month. Other losses in conference play include a two point loss to UConn in Storrs and a three point home loss to Georgetown last weekend...

Lineups, Rotations...
...The team that takes the court Saturday is surely not the one envisioned by Coach Bob Huggins in the weeks before Fall Practice. David Nyarsuk and Noah Cottrill are no longer in the program, though Nyarsuk may be in Morgantown next season. Of the two Cottrill was more likely to have an impact this season, but, recently suspended (for the second time since last September) guard Casey Mitchell aside, Coach Huggins has a pool of seven players among whom he typically allocates starts and playing time. Should Mitchell's second indefinite suspension this season be lifted by game time, the senior 6-4, 220 pound guard will probably start alongside junior Darryl Bryant (6-2, 195 pounds), a back court pairing the WVU staff has used in nearly 17 of the Mountaineers' 22 games this season. Red shirt senior Joe Mazzulla (6-2, 200 pounds) will come off the bench to sub in at the point when either Bryant or Mitchell sits. Sophomore wing Dalton Pepper (6-5, 230 pounds) will see minutes, most likely more than 10, at various points in the game. The wing has seen his minutes decline slightly since the start of conference play, but this is a home-coming game of sorts for the Pennsbury graduate. Look for the staff to tab senior 6-7 215 pound forward John Flowers and 6-8, 260 pound junior forward Kevin Jones to start in two of the three forward spots. The fifth starter will go to the player with who best fits the game plan and has probably practiced/played well lately. Senior forward Cam Thoroughman, one more of a seemingly endless supply of 6-7 forwards (Coach Huggins loves 'tweeners) has gotten the nod lately, but the staff has also tabbed (the recently departed) Dan Jennings and (6-9, 270 pound) sophomore Deniz Klicli for starts in the last six games. The spot does not appear to be nailed down yet. If Coach Huggins goes deeper than eight, expect to see Jonnie West (fifth year senior) first.

Coach Wright juggled the lineup for the Wildcats' home game with Marquette. Adjusting the starting line-up he had used in Villanova's first 21 games, the Coach decided to continute starting the three seniors, Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes and Antonio Pena, but pair Fisher and Stokes in the back court even as he left Pena at the #4. Coach Wright tabbed the fourth "regular" starter, sophmore center Mouphtaou Yarou for the #5, but decided to start sophomore Isaiah Armwood at the #3 and bring sophomore point guard Maalik Wayns off the bench early. While the change up may well have been to confound Marquette specificially with a match-up problem, having two 6-0 guards side-by-side can be problematic on defense, espeically one that relies so heavily on man defense with switching principles. The bench was short for the Warriors, limited largely to Wayns and spot appearances by freshman James Bell, and sophomores Dom Cheek & Maurice Sutton. The Marquette game marked a departure in the usual Villanova rotation, those three typically see playing times range between 10 and 20 minutes.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
Expect a modest clash of pace, as Villanova looks for a possession or so more than the Division 1 average (67.5) while West Virginia typically plays for three or so possessions less than the D1 average. Pomeroy projections suggest the two teams will settle for something in between (about 65 possessions), but in five of Villanova's last six games the 'Cats have had fewer than the projected possessions. This one might yield a game barely in the 60s, which would spell trouble for Villanova, as it would suggest the 'Cats are getting few points in transition. A "Four Factors" comparison when West Virginia has the ball...

When the Mountaineers have the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
'Eer O	49.1	19.3	41.4	41.3
Wildcat D	44.7	19.1	28.0	33.9

The Mountaineer offense is ranked #24 according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report, one of the near elites in Division 1. Coach Huggins' squad rebounds their misses among the very best in D1. Coach Huggins' offensive strategy is fairly straightforward, toss the ball at the basket and then rely on those athletic forwards to get the rebound and score on putback opportunities. They get to the line well, (41.3% of their FGAs, ranked #98 in D1), which suggests those rebounding battles can get physical. Perimeter defense has been a source of handwringing for the Nova Nation, but they will most likely not have to worry Saturday, West Virginia three point shooting falls in the bottom quarter of three point shooting, though frankly their two point attempt conversions are among the top third of Division 1. They are among the elites at covering the offensive boards, thereby giving themselves second chance opportunities. This mtachup is crucial for Villanova, as the Wildcats are among the elites for defensive rebounding. In two losses of their four losses, the Wildcats were unable to control the defensive boards, allowing their opponents to gather >35% of their misses. This should be a good benchmark for the Villanova front court and staff game planning. Holding West Virginia to the D1 average would be a huge boost, but that struggle beneath the boards could well test the Wildcats' depth at the forward spots. While West Virginia is good at getting to the line, they are an average team at converting those opportunities. Villanova has become particulary good at defending the shot, their eFG% defense is ranked #26 in D1. If Villanova starts Armwood but struggles to contain West Virginia's offensive rebounding in the first half, look for the type of half-time adjustment that might call for more bodies to crash the boards. That would however, diminish fast break opportunities. With poor three point shooting, Villanova's staff may feel that having both Wayns and Fisher together in the back court may be less risky than having both in against Marquette (a much stronger three point shooting squad). The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus West Virginia's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	49.9	17.7	36.1	44.1
'Eer D	44.0	20.2	35.6	34.8

The Eer's adjusted defense is 89.8, ranked #18, among the elites for Division 1. They are very strong shot defenders (excellent at defending the three and above average defending the two), but are only "above average" (ranked in the upper 1/3 of D1) at keeping their opponents off the line and merely average at forcing turnovers. The Mountaineers are not good defensive rebounders, a weakness which contrasts sharply with a Villanova offensive strength. Though the difference in rebounding rates is relatively small (about 0.5), it suggests Villanova should have a good day rebounding their misses. And that would be very good given the Mountaineers' outstanding shot defense. Another key indicator for West Virginia's defense however is fouling -- they don't. For Villanova, used to netting 25% or more of their points at the line may well have to find another source for posting points, assuming they cannot coax more fouls out of Coach Huggins' squad.

Want to Beat West Virginia? Then...
Shooting is always critical, make them miss and convert your own, but...
1. Couple their misses with poor(er) rebounding. West Virginia can survive a shooting day (eFG%) in the 40s if they rebound their misses strongly, but they cannot survive a shooting day in the 30s, irrespective of their rebounding. West Virginia is 1-2 when shooting in their eFG% is <40%. The only time they won (South Florida), their opponent shot even worse than they did. If the Moutaineers are shooting in the 40s, then limit their offensive boards to the Division 1 average (about 33%). In games where they shot in the 40s and rebounded in the 30s they went 1-1.
2. Convert your shots. Sounds easy, no? Make them miss and hit your own. Like their offense, combine shooting (eFG%) and offensive rebounding. In games where their opponents converted at 50% or higher (eFG%), WVU is 2-3. In games where opponents convert at 40% (but less than 50%) and rebound at Villanova's average or better, the 'Eers are 1-2.
3. Get to the line. In games where WVU's opponents have an FT Rate (FTA/FGA) of 36.8 or higher (Villanova's rate is 44.1), they have gone 3-5.

Finally...
...Villanova lost back-to-back games in the Wells Fargo Center as they staggered to the finish last season. The games, played two weeks apart (with a Pavilion game in between) were against Connecticut and West Virginia. Before that, the Wildcats lost to Notre Dame after they lost to Syracuse (with a trip to Pittsburgh in between). Pomeroy is calling this one for the 'Cats, 65 possessions and a four point winning margin, with a 66% degree of certainty.

2010-11 Preview -- West Virginia Mountaineers

Too Busy for the Details?
West Virginia finished the 2010 Big East season strong, running the table at Madison Square Garden and brushing their first three NCAA opponents by nine or better points. Putting down the Kentucky Wildcats, 73-66, in the East Regional the Mountaineers punched their ticket to the second Final Four in the program's history. Their loss to eventual champion Duke in the semi-final was overshadowed by the uncertainty surrounding senior Da'Sean Butler, injured during the game, who appeared prepared to play at the next level once his days in Morgantown were done. Coach Huggins will see his back court return intact and hopefully healthier in 2011 than 2010. Casey Mitchell and Deniz Kilicli should be aclimated to the West Virginia system. Can the Mountaineers make it two consecutive Final Fours? They have a good starting point.  Prognosis -- A 1st quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2011	2010	2009
%Min	55.9	82.9	58.8
%Pts	52.3	66.0	62.2
%FGM	52.5	81.7	60.0
%3FGM	56.8	62.3	64.8
%OReb	51.9	92.3	65.2
%DReb	48.5	87.3	60.0
%TReb	49.8	89.2	61.7

Returning points, considering the losses include four year players Da'Sean Butler and Wellington Smith, along with Devin Ebanks, is surprisingly close to returning minutes. The points can be replaced as there are several Mountaineer bballers ready to step up.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2009-10		2008-09		2007-08
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
BE Off Eff	112.4	2	106.3	8	107.4	4
BE Def Eff	100.3	3	98.1	3	99.6	4
BE Eff Diff	12.1	1	8.2	6	7.8	4
BE Def eFG	48.2	5	47.7	3	50.2	11
BE Def TOv	20.1	5	20.9	3	21.7	3
BE Def OReb	32.9	T4	32.1	5	31.3	5
BE Def FTA/FGA	43.7	14	39.7	13	37.7	8

The defensive numbers have remained fairly "steady" over the past three seasons, though the Mountaineers are becoming (note their FGA/FGA for defense) far more physical defenders than they were under John Beilein. In the transition from John Beilein's finesse-oriented style of offense and defense, the Bob Huggins squads have not developed a "signature" defensive feature. They do not excel at shot defense, nor at rebounding (remarkable considering their offensive rebounding), nor for forcing turnovers. The uptick in allowing opponents to get to the line, taken here as an indication of more physical play, is the only noticeable difference in defensive play over the last three season. If the defense is largely nondescript (physical play excepted), the same cannot be said for the offense...

Care to guess Bob Huggins' first season?

The transition from efficient shot selection to offensive rebounding is remarkable. While the current coach may have carried over much of the Beilein offensive playbook, the shift from working the defense to free a shooter (usually on the perimeter) and snag a high-percentage shot to controlling the boards for the second-chance opportunity is striking. Note that West Virginia hovered on the boundary separating the first and second quartiles (#3 down to #5) while making this offensive transition. Can the Mountaineers improve their Big East standing? The data would suggest they cannot get much better at offensive rebounding. With turnovers and FTA/FGA fluctuating from season-to-season, eFG% (shooting efficiency) would have to improve for West Virginia to maintain their place at the table in the first quartile. In an offense where efficient shot making predominates, turnovers may play a more important role than offensive rebounding.

	For the Record...
	2009-10			2008-09			2007-08
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	31	7	0.816	23	12	0.657	26	11	0.703
Big East	13	5	0.722	10	8	0.556	11	7	0.611
Post Season?	NCAA Rnd #5			NCAA Rnd #1			NCAA Rnd #3

The Mountaineer's Nucleus
When Coach Bob Huggins runs his first practice, he will look on a squad composed nearly entirely of players he (and Assistant Coach Billy Hahn) recruited. Ironically, the squad is not much longer than those assembled by John Beilein, but they faster and more athletic.

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
Kevin Jones	81.2	124.6	18.5	21.5	57.6	12.0	1.18	28.5
Darryl Bryant	55.0	102.7	23.9	21.4	42.4	2.7	1.00	56.0
Joe Mazzulla	38.5	91.5	15.2	10.0	37.5	2.1	0.87	76.2
John Flowers	35.4	102.5	14.6	12.6	48.5	6.1	0.98	50.0
Casey Mitchell	18.5	102.8	24.3	33.3	41.5	5.4	0.80	15.6
Cam Thoroughman	16.8	91.2	12.4	6.0	50.0	9.0	1.05	109.1
Dalton Pepper	14.8	112.5	20.3	27.8	47.2	4.4	0.98	12.2

Look for juniors Kevin Jones and Truck Bryant to function as first and second scoring options when they are on the floor. They should be augmented by back court/wing players Casey Mitchell and Dalton Pepper, two of the most efficient rotation players last season. If they increase their time without reducing their usage (Poss%) or sacrificing efficiency (ORtg), they should be able to make up for the departed offense. West Virginia fans who look to senior John Flowers for a big step up will be disappointed. Flowers will get minutes, and the senior has provided better efficiency than (say) Joe Mazzulla, but Flowers has not provided more than limited role player-type offense in his previous three seasons, and will not grow much beyond that level this season either. An "X Factor" player going into this season is sophomore forward/center Deniz Kilicli, a Turk who sat for an NCAA-mandated 23 games last season. Should the Turk improve his rebounding (his shot efficiency, 51.2% eFG%, compared favorably with other members of the squad), he will see (a lot) more floor time in 2011.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Kevin Jones	81.2	13.0	7.2	10.9	3.1	1.1
Darryl Bryant	55.0	7.7	25.2	21.6	0.1	1.8
Joe Mazzulla	38.5	11.2	26.5	28.0	0.2	2.5
John Flowers	35.4	13.5	15.5	20.2	6.0	2.4
Casey Mitchell	18.5	7.5	9.9	10.7	0.0	2.2
Cam Thoroughman	16.8	10.5	11.6	34.8	1.8	1.2
Dalton Pepper	14.8	4.7	15.1	9.4	0.5	1.1

Not a good sign when the point guard is the second-most efficient defensive rebounder. Jones is a great offensive rebounder, but has to get better on the defensive glass. And someone from Pepper, Kilicli and Flowers will have to improve greatly if the West Virginia is to stay among the conference elites in defense.

Significant Additions
The Mountaineers' entering class, on the small (in number) size, has been steadily reduced. A single player, 6-10, 235 pound Kevin Noreen out of Minneapolis, MN is available. Noah Cottrill, a 6-3, 195 scoring machine, was suspended indefinitely in late October. Red shirt freshman Kenny Ross, a 6-0 175 pound guard, may see some rotation minutes.

Explode If...
1. Pepper, Kilicli and Mitchell can efficienctly replace the departed scoring.
2. The Mountaineers can take better care of the ball. Turnovers were not a drag on the offense last season, but should Coach Huggins' squad reduce their turnover rate (17.2% in conference play last season) by another 4% (which would rank them in the top 2-3 in conference) they could get another 2-3 field goal attempts per game in the bargain.
3. Bryant improves his shot conversion efficiency to "average". The guard was terrible last season, converting just 37.7% of his 2 point attempts and 31.5% of his 3 point attempts.

Implode If...
1. Reduction in the number of players available. The exact reason does not really matter, health or discipline failings can net the same result, and the squad has suffered both, and NCAA sanctions as well, over the past three seasons. At least five different players have had at least six run-ins that resulted in loss of game time. The coach does not have a deep enough squad this season to sustain efficiency should another player or two have to sit.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
West Virginia will rely on the 2010 Puerto Rico Tip-Off field to provide some credibility to their out of conference (OOC) schedule. Their first round opponent will be Davidson (Southern Conference), with either Nebraska (Big 12) or Vanderbilt (SEC -- most likely) to follow. High majors bracketed in the other half of the field include North Carolina (ACC -- a possible third opponent), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt powerhouse) and Minnesota (Big Ten -- possible fourth opponent). Puerto Rico comes early (November 18 through November 21), so the trip to Miami for a December 4 game is, local rivals Robert Morris and Duquesne aside, their sternest test before the Big East schedule. WVU does have two additional OOC games after conference play begins -- a made-for-TV matchup with Purdue (1/16) and traditional in state rival Marshall (1/19). If the Mountaineers are 11-0/10-1 (a reasonable expectation) when they meet St. John's on 12/29, they will ranked in the national polls and probably in line for a very good (#3 or better) seed in the NCAAs. 8-3 (or worse) and West Virginia fans will be pining for the days of Da'Sean Butler and Devin Ebanks.

West Virginia's mirrors, Backyard Brawl rival Pittsburgh, Louisville and DePaul, are a good, representative mix of the conference. Given the Coliseum's intimidation factor, the 'Eers should be able to wring a 4-2 or even 5-1 record from that trio. Noting the Coliseum as an advantage, hosting St. John's, Notre Dame and Seton Hall should translate into Ws for Coach Huggins' squad and provide a tie-breaker edge with teams that may well challenge for position in conference standings. The Johnnies and Pirates visit fairly early in the conference season. The Mountaineers open the conference season with a five game slate before they take a two game "OOC break". Those five games include a home opener against St. John's (welcome to the Big East Steve Lavin!), followed by a three game road trip (WVU's longest road run) that takes the squad out to the midwest (Marquette and DePaul) with a chaser in DC (Georgetown) and then a home game against Providence. Sporting a 3-2 conference record before hosting Purdue would be par for the course (but a bit disappointing?). Anything less should be cause for concern, though not surprising if their OOC record was (say) 8-3 or poorer. The last half of the schedule, on paper, is tougher than the first, so keeping the losses to one or two is important. The far turn features a road trip to Philadelphia and a meeting with Villanova. That game is followed by both Backyard Brawl games and a trip to Syracuse. If WVU has 10-11 conference wins going into the home stretch, they will be in very good shape as they have a trip to Piscataway and a date with Rutgers, followed by a two game homestand that features Connecticut and Louisville. A 3-0 run to close out the conference schedule (combined with the 10-11 wins going in) would put West Virginia in line for a #3/#4 seed in the Big East Tournament.

Preview 2009-10 -- West Virginia Mountaineers

Too Busy for the Details?
Returning 65.9% of a squad that finished #7 in the conference last season before a disappointingly early exit from the NCAAs, hopes are very high for the Mountaineers, with many pegging West Virginia as the #1 or #2 team in the conference. This would be a tremendous development for Coach Bob Huggins, a West Virginia alum who returned to Morgantown 2 seasons ago when John Beilein took the Michigan job. Huggins and staff have incorporated the strengths of Beilein's "Flying Circus" squad into a more inside, power basketball-focused offensive system. This could be, despite the loss of senior Alex Ruoff, a breakout season for the 'Eers...if they can get consistent play from their backcourt. Prognosis -- A 1st quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance
Coach Huggins gets a double bonus this season -- this season's squad will have the most "Huggins-oriented" make up of any squad he has had at Morgantown, and it is the most experienced Mountaineer squad he has managed in his short tenure.

	Returning...
	2010	2009	2008
%Min	65.9	58.8	53.8
%Pts	63.5	59.2	56.4
%FGM	66.7	60.0	57.0
%3FGM	41.6	64.8	52.8
%OReb	88.2	65.2	52.8
%DReb	77.1	60.0	58.9
%TReb	81.2	61.7	57.0

Losing Alex Ruoff hurts, especially with outside shooting (note the 41.6% returning %3FGM above), but much of the rest of West Virginia's offense and defense returns intact as Coach Huggins works to balance his outside threats (Butler & the newcomers Mitchell and Pepper) with inside 'tweeners like Smith, Ebanks, Jones and Flowers (& the newcomers Kilicli & Jennings).

	According to Pomeroy...
	2008-09		2007-08		2006-07
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Overall ORtg	115.3	18	116.7	21	118.3	13
Overall DRtg	89.1	14	90.4	24	94.0	57
Big East ORtg	106.3	8	107.4	4	106.2	4
Big East DRtg	98.1	3	99.6	4	103.4	12
Four Factors -- Overall
All Off. eFG%	48.5	193	51.4	112	54.7	17
All Off. TOv%	17.9	42	16.1	6	17.0	10
All Off. OReb%	40.8	5	34.6	99	30.2	270
All Off. FTA/FGA	35.9	190	36.6	171	28.2	320
All Def. eFG%	46.6	61	48.0	80	49.3	131
All Def. TOv%	23.3	33	22.6	76	23.8	39
All Def. OReb%	31.6	119	30.7	80	35.2	251
All Def. FTA/FGA	38.4	222	39.7	237	28.8	33
Four Factors -- Big East Only
BE Off. eFG%	47.5	12	48.2	10	53.9	2
BE Off. TOv%	17.4	5	14.8	1	17.3	3
BE Off. OReb%	37.7	3	33.0	9	24.8	16
BE Off. FTA/FGA	29.2	13	40.1	3	30.3	13
BE Def. eFG%	47.7	3	50.2	11	51.6	14
BE Def. TOv%	20.9	3	21.7	3	21.1	4
BE Def. OReb%	32.1	5	31.3	5	35.9	14
BE Def. FTA/FGA	39.7	13	37.7	8	34.8	10
Miscellanious
All Gms Cons	25.3	327	27.1	333	24.2	295
All Gms Luck	-.075	311	-.025	203	+.015	122

Possibly a reflection of the change in coaching styles, the Mountaineers rank for the 2nd season running, near the bottom of DI for Luck and Consistency. A troubling trend that hints the Mountaineers may struggle unexpectedly at times and could well post a won-loss record lower than the squad's Pythagorean Winning Percentage would suggest.

	For the Record...
	2008-09			2007-08			2006-07
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	23	12	0.657	26	11	0.703	27	9	0.750
Big East	10	8	0.556	11	7	0.611	9	7	0.563
Post Season?	NCAA/Rnd 1			NCAA/Rnd 3			NIT/Champ

The Mountaineer's Nucleus
Coach Huggins will bring back Ebanks & Butler, two of West Virginia's 3 top scorers from 2009. Losses from the #5 spot (little used Josh Sowards and Dee Proby both transferred out) have thinned the front court, but Coach Huggins, not a big fan of the space eater-type low post player, will go with quartet of 'tweeners who range from 6-7 to 6-9, and tip the scales from 215 to 250 or so. A handful of those 'tweeners are returnees -- Butler, Smith, Jones, Flowers & Thoroughman.

On Offense
Player	Min%	ORtg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTRA
Butler	82.6	107.7	26.1	29.0	49.2	1.06	7.1	30.4
Ebanks	75.2	108.7	20.5	18.1	47.9	1.06	9.6	49.8
Bryant	63.7	102.6	21.9	21.3	47.9	1.05	1.6	35.7
Smith	53.3	104.4	15.8	15.0	43.6	0.94	10.2	37.6
Jones	48.1	113.6	16.7	19.5	50.3	1.02	10.7	23.7
Flowers	42.0	104.9	15.6	15.3	49.6	0.98	9.4	33.8
Thoroughman	21.7	94.0	13.1	7.1	43.8	0.92	14.0	68.8
Mazzulla	10.7	102.4	18.9	12.7	41.1	0.99	2.2	85.7

Bryant and Mazzulla were suspended from all basketball activities during the off season. The school however posted both to the preseason roster, and sure enough they were re-instated before the Fall practice (mid October). With Ebanks and Mazzulla reinstated, the Mountaineers will enter the season with a deep and experienced back court, including bodies (returning and entering) to man the #1 and #2. And the same goes for their front court.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stls%	Blk%
Da'Sean Butler	82.6	13.5	11.5	16.1	1.0	2.3
Devin Ebanks	75.2	20.2	17.4	18.7	2.6	1.7
Darryl Bryant	63.7	6.7	21.2	22.2	0.1	1.3
Wellington Smith	53.3	9.8	11.3	17.3	7.8	1.6
Kevin Jones	48.1	18.2	6.7	9.6	3.8	1.9
John Flowers	42.0	12.6	11.0	16.4	4.9	1.7
Cam Thoroughman	21.7	14.3	12.9	31.7	1.5	2.6
Joe Mazzulla	10.7	10.2	31.1	23.5	0.0	2.8

Bryant and Mazzulla are clearly the point guards (note their assist and turnover rates -- Ast% and TO% respectively), but the others are very good at distributing the ball. No one, Thoroughman excepted, is especially loose with the ball either.

Significant Additions
Coach Huggins continues to stock his squad with athletic forwards, consistent with teams/programs he built at Akron, Cincinnati and Kansas State, before coming to West Virginia. The incoming class, 3 Top 100 (ESPNU) ranked freshmen and the JUCO Player of the Year (also consistent with his recruiting practices), is a consensus top 2/3 class in the Big East. , if short of point guards. Casey Mitchell, a 6-4 SG out of Chipola Junior College, Florida will step into the wing spot vacated by Alex Ruoff. Mitchell was JUCO player of the year last season when he chipped in 20 ppg for Chipola. He will go a long way in filling the point void left by the departed Ruoff. He may take some ball handling responsibilities should Mazzulla and/or Bryant not be re-instated in 2009-10. Deniz Kilicli is a 6-9 Turkish import who will step into the #4/#5 and push Smith, Jones and Thoroughman for time. Kilicli played for the Turkish national team this past summer in the World University Games (Serbia), and was ranked #47 by ESPN/Scouts, Inc., in their 2009 Top 100. The NCAA, however, suspended him for West Virginia's first 20 games this season for play on a Turkish team that also employed a professional player. Strictly prohibited under NCAA rules. Dan Jennings, a 6-8, 225lb #4 out of St. Thomas More School in Connecticut (a name that should be familiar to Villanova fans), will compete for time in the low post. A physical player who likes to draw contact, Jennings was ranked #60 by ESPN/Scouts, Inc. Dalton Pepper is another name familiar to the Wildcat faithful. Pepper graduated from Pennsbury HS in Pennsylvania, was on Villanova's recruiting radar until he pulled the trigger for West Virginia in 2008. Pepper continues the "Philadelphia guard" tradition with physical play and rebounding to go with his shooting. Pepper is also rated in ESPN/Scout Inc.'s Top 100 (#96), and will compete with wing Da'Sean Butler for playing time. If Mazzulla & Bryant remain suspended through the beginning of the season look for Pepper to get a look at the #1.

Explode If...
1. Coach Huggins can solidify the point guard position. Having either (or both) of junior Joe Mazzulla and sophomore Darryl Bryant would be a huge step for the program. Both are fast, can slash into the lane and are strong enough to finish after contact. Mazzulla may be a bit rusty after taking a red shirt last season. The summer suspension may also have set him back. Bryant spent most of last season on the steep side of the learning curve. His shooting should be more accurate this season, which will be a big boon for the program.
2. Coach Huggins can find a productive rotation for the forward spots. One or more of Kilicli, Jennings or Smith (more likely) will spend time in the low post. Of the returning players Ebanks and Jones were the more productive on the boards. Kilicli or Jennings can get time if he can rebound.
3. A combination of (an improved) Ebanks, Bryant, Flowers and Jones, along with newcomers Casey Mitchell and/or Dalton Pepper surpasses Alex Ruoff's offensive production. The staff will no doubt give each a long look.
4. The 'Eers can figure out how to break on the high side of .500 on the road. Over the past 2 conference seasons West Virginia has gone 13-5 at home, and a far more modest 8-10 on the road. They went 7-2 at home, very close to the max. An 8-1 home record coupled with a 5-4/6-3 road record should seal a #1 seed in New York City next March.


Implode If...
The usual demons of injury & egos aside, Huggins' teams have often proven to be their own worst enemies. The first two seasons passed with only 2 - 3 distractions. Are Mazzulla and Bryant an anamoly or a hint of things to come.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
West Virginia will face Long Beach State in the first round of the 76 Classic. The second round opponent will be either Texas A&M or Clemson, with the third rond opponent coming from the other bracket...one of UCLA, Minnesota or Butler, most likely. 2-1 -- or better 3-0 -- should warm the hearts throughout the Mountaineer Nation. WVU will host (former Rutgers Coach) Gary Waters' Cleveland State Vikings, a team that upset Syracuse last season in the Carrier Dome, then face Ole Miss, coached by former Huggins' assistant Andy Kennedy. Going undefeated (or 9-1...) into the Big East regular season would be a strong signal the 'Eers are ready to contend for the Big East title. Their January/February leg contains three more OOC opponents, in-state rival Marshall, along with national powers Purdue and Ohio State -- both nationally televised games.

West Virginia jump starts their Big East season with a trip to Newark to face the Seton Hall Pirates at the Rock in what promises to be a good test. A run back to Morgantown for their home opener versus the Marquette Golden Eagles will be followed by a trip to Indiana to play Purdue. Marquette may be the breather in that run. A breather back home against Rutgers will be followed by a two game road trip, first to South Bend and the Fighting Irish, followed by a swing down to Tampa and a matchup with the Bulls. Those games should be a good barometer of how far the Mountaineers are progressing. Beating both the Irish (generally tough to do at the Joyce Center) and the Bulls could put WVU at 5-0 (or 4-1) going into a mini-homestand where they deal first with Syracuse and then their last two (before the NCAAs) OOC opponents (Marchall & Ohio State). 3-0 through that stand should have the 'Eers ranked in the top 10, especially if they are #1 in the Big East standings at that point. The real test for Coach Huggins' squad will come in the last 5 games of the regular season, as WVU will come off of another two game road trip (to Pittsburgh and then Providence) to host Seton Hall and close out their home-n-away series with the Pirates. The 'Eers travel to Storrs to close out their mirror games with the Huskies, and return home to face Cincinnati, then Georgetown. And then they finish with a road closer at Villanova. Note four of those five opponents are projected to finish in the top 6 of the conference, with a season-ending clash between the preseason #1 & #2 ranked teams. Irrespective of their record entering this last leg of the conference play (13-0? 12-1? 11-2?), it is very unlikely they will go 5-0. 4-1 is likely (not necessarily Villanova), even 3-2 (or 2-3?) would not be shocking.

2010 Transfers/JUCOs -- 10 to Watch

Changing Times
The Big East (with a few institutional exceptions) has been slow to embrace transfers & JUCO players. A new coach eager to rebuild quickly or a veteran coach looking for that last piece of the puzzle (Andrew Gaze of Seton Hall/PJ Carlesimo and Walter Berry of St. John's/Louie Carnesecca come to mind). The expansion of 2006 however, may have changed everything. Cincinnati and St. John's, both recovering from disastrous coaching transitions reached early and often into the JUCO ranks to restock quickly (with different levels of success). Coaching transitions at South Florida and and Marquette have sent Stan Haith and Buzz Williams to 2 year schools all over the Great Plains and East Coast for players who will fill gaps created by transfers, graduations and decommitted High School bballers. The trend is not limited to rebuilding programs or new coaches, over the period 2008-2010, nearly 30 JUCO/transfers, at least one for every team in the conference will suit up to play. Even Connecticut's Jim Calhoun, sensing that junior Hasheem Thabeet was ready last season inked 7-1, 255 lbs Charles Okwandu from Harkum Junior College, and Georgetown's John Thompson III, attempting to staunch the outward flow of players, brought in 2 DI transfers over the course of his tenure (Patrick Ewing from Indiana & Julian Vaughn from Florida State). Okwandu will team with entering 6-8 freshman Alex Oriakhi to anchor the low post.

Ten to Watch...
Success for the ten here will, I suspect, translate into success for their new teams.

Name	Pos.	Hgt	Wgt	From	To
James Beatty	1	6-3	190	Miami-Dade CC	Rutgers
Dwight Buycks	2	6-2	180	Indian Hills	Marquette
Jarrid Famous	5	6-10	240	Westchester	South Florida
Ben Hansbrough	2	6-3	205	Mississippi St.	Notre Dame
Wesley Johnson	3	6-7	198	Iowa State	Syracuse
Darius Johnson-Odom	1/2	6-2	200	Hutchinson	Marquette
Taylor King	3/4	6-6	230	Duke	Villanova
Keon Lawrence	1	6-2	175	Missouri	Seton Hall
Scott Martin	2	6-8	200	Purdue	Notre Dame
Herb Pope	4	6-8	235	New Mexico State	Seton Hall

Statistics for JUCOs are very uneven; I have located baseline numbers for only Jarrid Famous (Westchester CC) and Darius Johnson-Odom (Hutchinson CC). A quick look at those numbers...

				FTA
Player	%Min	eFG%	PPWS	FGA
Jarrid Famous	88.3	59.3	1.25	66.4
Darius Johnson-Odom	81.3	55.5	1.22	55.0

Jarrid Famous will man the low post alongside senior Alex Sanchez, becoming the latest in a line of South Florida #5s who stretch back to the Bull's 1st season in the Big East. Gus Gilchrist will step out to face the basket as a #4, giving South Florida an inside presence as imposing as Cincinnati (or Connecticut in the 1990s). Scoring will come from rising sophomore) Dominique Jones (among others), so Famous will not have to become a "go-to guy" right away, a luxury Marquette's point guard-in-waiting, Darius Johnson-Odom, will be pressed to avoid. No doubt returning #4 Lazar Hayward and incoming JUCO Dwight Buycks, out of Indian Hills CC in Iowa, but after returning junior Jimmy Butler, the Golden Eagles will need to find both another scoring option, and a good point guard to set the table. Johnson-Odom comes in with true freshman Junior Cadougan, who (no doubt the point guard of the future) may be ready to split the duties next season. Buycks was the Warriors (Indian Hills, but maybe the same will be said for Marquette next season) high scorer in 2009, named to the to the All-Region first team. Rutgers lost the services of reliable (if unspectacular) Anthony Farmer with the close of the 2009 season. Coach Hill's 2008 experiment using (rising sophomore) Corey Chandler was not successful. In the event that (rising sophomore) Mike Coburn is not able to step up effectively, Miami-Dade CC's James Beatty, a late signee for the Scarlet Knights, should do fine. Coach Hill is not looking for a shoot-first pg, he has (rising freshman) Mike Rosario to fill it up. What he needs is an assist-oriented pg who can find an open man (or Rosario if all else fails), and Beatty should be able to do that (and take a shot once in a while himself).

Stats for DI transfers is much easier to come by. And if the transfer played more than 10% of the time at his position before transferring out, Ken Pomeroy has extrapolated the raw data to develop possession-based stats for the players as well...

Player	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTRate
Pope	27.4	88.4	27.7	26.8	46.2	0.94	8.7	39.2
Johnson	56.2	96.1	27.0	29.6	47.7	1.03	5.8	26.7
King	24.2	111.9	24.0	30.2	55.6	1.12	7.6	19.1
Martin	51.1	97.9	23.8	23.2	43.1	0.98	7.0	49.8
Lawrence	72.0	99.0	20.3	21.2	49.3	1.04	3.1	21.5
Hansbrough	73.1	113.8	15.5	16.8	54.7	1.16	2.3	30.1

The players are presented in "%Poss" order, suggesting the role they assumed at their previous stop. Their %Poss should be taken with "%Min" to develop a fairly good perspective on how significantly the player functioned within the former team's framework. Notre Dame needs a 3 point shooter to step into Kyle McAlarney's shoes. Actually they need two -- no one really flled Colin Fall's shoes last season. Scott Martin and Ben Hansbrough, along with several returning Irish players, will get an opportunity to show what they can do. Of the two, Martin might be the better candidate (though his 3 point production on the 2007 Purdue team was comparable to Tory Jackson's production on the 2009 Notre Dame team. Martin's playing time (51.1% of the minutes on the Boilermaker wing), coupled with his possessions and shots suggest he can play a 2nd/3rd option on offense. Hansbrough, more efficient scorer when he played at Mississippi State than Martin was at Purdue, will have to adjust to playing a more prominant role in the offense. As a Bull Dog Hansbrough operated (and excelled) as the 4th/5th option on offense. Can he do as well if the defense knows he is likely to get the ball? The Irish fortunes may well hang on how well those two can convert their opportunities into points. The path for Seton Hall's and Syracuse's seems far more certain. Both were "significant contributors" at their last stop (New Mexico State and Iowa State repsectively) and well regarded coming out of High School. Since taking the reins in South Orange, Pirate head coach Bobby Gonzalaz has watched his undersized but quick and speedy defense-oriented teams come out of the gate strong to begin the Big East season, only to fade by late February. Pope promises both size (and an inside threat to match wing guard Jeremy Hazell) and stamina. Syracuse also lacked size at the #3. Guard/forward Paul Harris was too good to sit, but possessed a skill set completely at odds with what the Orange needed. Johnson will fit better, his skills and personality should be oil (rather than sand) in the Syracuse machine.

Player	%Min	DR%	ARate	TORate	Blk%	Stl%
Herb Pope	27.4	21.6	13.4	24.9	3.1	2.3
Wesley Johnson	56.2	10.9	13.4	17.6	1.5	2.0
Taylor King	24.2	14.9	8.2	12.8	3.8	1.8
Scott Martin	51.1	14.7	13.4	17.2	3.6	2.6
Keon Lawrence	72.0	9.7	14.3	19.3	1.8	1.7
Ben Hansbrough	73.1	9.1	14.0	17.7	0.2	1.8

The path for Seton Hall's Keon Lawrence and Villanova's Taylor King is less certain, as each finds others starting ahead of them. Lawrence, the 3rd leading scorer for Missouri back in 2008, may find his time rotating on to the court when either (rising junior) point guard Eugene Harvey or (rising sophomore) Jeremy Hazell need to rest. For King, the road to the starting 5 may come as much from circumstances (he, unlike the true freshmen, has had a year of practice to learn Coach Wright's defensive system) and events (Reggie Redding...). While reknowned for his shot (see his eFG% and PPWS above), King may learn the fastest way to the staff's heart (and the court) is to learn to use his height (6-6+) and body (230 lbs) to become a rebounding demon. With an offensive rebounding rate of 7.6 and a defensive rebounding rate of 14.9, King is very close to being there. The Wildcat's will need rebounders who can hit their shots (not shooters who rebound whenever they can get around to it...).

And Then There is...
Not listed among the ten, but nevertheless worth noting include Casey Mitchell late of Chipola JC who will continue his career at West Virginia under Bob Huggins. Mitchell, a scoring machine for the Indians, was recognized as the JUCO Player of the Year in 2009, but will most likely split time on the wing with Devin Ebanks and D'Sean Butler, unless suspended guards Joe Mazzulla and Truck Bryant are not re-instated. Then Mitchell (along with the Ebanks and several "deeper rotation" players) may garner some consideration for handling the point guard duties. St. John's-bound Dwight Hardy, a 6-2, 170 lbs Indian Hills CC teammate of Dwight Buycks was the Warrior's 2nd scoring option and known for several 3 point eruptions in 2009. He may, if he can break into a Red Storm wing rotation that will include sophomore Quincy Roberts and juniors Paris Horne and DJ Kennedy, have an opportunity to do the same for the Johnnies. Hardy did a stint or two at the point for Indian Hills, so he may find some time spelling Maalik Boothe. Keno Davis took over a program dominated by graduating seniors and he led them back to the NIT in 2009. The 2010 Friars have needs to fill however, so Russ Permenter, a 6-9, 229lb #3 (out of Temple College, TX) and Kyle Wright, a 6-6 guard out of Monroe JC (by way of Stony Brook and Colorado) should get their opportunity to help Providence next season.

The Bearcat logjam in the front court will be a bit worse next season as heralded 4/5 Ibrahima Thomas, a 6-11 sophomore out of Oklahoma State comes to the Queen City. Thomas, perhaps unnerved by Coach Travis Ford's intense approach to his players and the prospect of always playing with his back to the basket, decided to leave Cowboy country for the banks of the Ohio River. Coach Cronin will run a rotation through the 4/5 that includes Anthony McClain, Yancy Gates, Steven Toyloy and Rashad Bishop, will also have to find time for Thomas.

Possession-based stats were gleaned from Ken Pomeroy's website, an invaluable resource. Stats for Jarrid Famous and Darius Johnson-Odom are based on stats gleaned from their previous schools (Westchester CC and Hutchinson JC).