2011-12 Preview -- Second Quartile

The Bottom Half of the Top Half
The teams who finish in this quartile will have won at least 10 games and almost certainly (if they were not too cute with their out of conference schedule) have an NCAA bid in hand when they leave Madison Square Garden after the Big East Tournament. The quartile will have (by my projection) two new teams, Notre Dame sliding down from a first quartile finish last season, and Marquette, sliding up from the 2011 third quartile.

	2010-11 Season
	Overall			Big East			BET	Post
Team	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	Seed	Season?
Cincinnati	26	9	0.743	11	7	0.611	6	NCAA
Marquette	22	14	0.611	9	9	0.500	11	NCAA
Notre Dame	27	7	0.794	14	4	0.798	2	NCAA
West Virginia	21	12	0.636	11	7	0.611	7	NCAA

Marquette, Notre Dame and West Virginia have established themselves as upper division (at times elite) programs in conference play, no small feat in the Big East. Cincinnati is back. Labeled a Dead Man Walking when Andy Kennedy, the last vestage of the Bob Huggins Era, stormed out of Fifth Third after a first round NIT loss back in 2006, Mick Cronin has revived the program and has them within striking distance of the conference penthouse.

Team Thumbnail (in 300 words...more or less)
Cincinnati -- Bearcat Rising?
The offensive and defensive efficiencies (points per possession), along with the difference margin for the past three seasons...

	Efficiency
Season	Off.	Def.	Margin
2008-09	1.03	1.11	-0.08
2009-10	1.00	1.06	-0.05
2010-11	1.03	0.98	0.05

...if the trendline holds Coach Mick Cronin's squad should better their 11-7 record by one or two wins this season. Lance Stephenson came and went as did Ibrahima Thomas; Deonta Vaughn lifted the Bearcats a bit and moved on; Rashad Bishop took his 15 minutes on the great stage, but the constant over the past three seasons has been Yancy Gates (27.8 MPG, 11.9 PPG, 6.9 RPG) -- with a nod to Dion Dixon (26.8 MPG, 11.6 PPG, 1.5:1.0 ATO). Those two were the squad's leading scorers last season, and without a doubt Coach Mick Cronin is happy to have both back again this season. Though Thomas and Bishop (& Darnell Wilkes) are gone, the Bearcats return 59% of their 2010-11 minutes (four points above the conference average of 55%) and 66% of their scoring. As usual, the Cincinnati team starts with the front court where Gates will be joined by returning rotation player Justin Jackson. Red shirt freshman Kelvin Gaines will compete with 6-10 JUCO big Cheikh Mbodj for starts and minutes in the low post. A trio of freshmen fowards, Octavius Ellis, Jermaine Sanders and Shaquille Thomas will find work on the wing, giving Cronin a "going big" option. Thomas is especially well regarded in that group, though Ellis is an interesting 6-9 in height. The back court will have two year starter Cashmere Wright again manning the point and pair up with Dixon, a senior off guard. Sean Kilpatrick started a single game in 2011-12, but played an average of 20.5 minutes while appearing in all 35 of the Bearcats' games. Kilpatrick will get a bit of competition from JaQuan Parker, a 6-3 junior who saw more minutes as a freshman. With freshmen guards Jeremiah Davis (a 6-3 native of Muncie, IN who prepped at Huntington Prep last year) and Ge'Lawn Guyn, a Kentucky native who prepped at South Kent last season pushing the rotation, there will competition for minutes at virtually every position.

A road trip to Georgia, a Cross Town randezvous at the Cintas Center and a visit from Oklahoma highlight the out of conference slate, not, Xavier aside, the most challenging preparation for conference play. The Xavier game will be billed a Top 10/15 matchup, and should be closer than last season's 22 point Bearcat beatdown of the Musketeers. If 'Nati is 14-0 for their New Years Day (2012) game with Pittsburgh, count on this game as a Top 10 matchup. Drawing mirrors with Marquette, St. John's and Villanova should be interesting. 6-0 may not be likely (but possible), 5-1 with sweeps of Villanova and St. John's is, if the offense gels, within reach, though 4-2 would be a modest bump in the road. Top conference contenders Louisville, Notre Dame and Syracuse will all visit Fifth Third, an advantage for Cronin's charges. Going 3-0 against those three should cushion against a road slate that includes Connecticut, Georgetown, Pittsburgh and West Virginia. Going 4-0 against that slate would probably net them the regular season crown, not realistic, but 2-2, even 1-3 would be keep them in the hunt for a bye seed for the year-end Garden party.

Marquette -- Tom Crean's Best Recruit...

Which Warrior/Golden Eagle
was Tom Crean's Best Recruit?
A.	Travis Diener
B.	Dwayne Wade
C.	Jerel McNeal
D.	Buzz Williams

If you answered (A) you are clearly a (Wisconsin) homer; (B) is a logical response at this point; (C) and you probably did not pay attention to Marquette until they joined the Big East (hint, there was life before 2006); in another three seasons, (D) might be the new no brainer. The best news for Marquette in an otherwise bad news (for the Big East) off season was that Buzz Williams turned aside talk of the Oklahoma job quickly and focused on the job at hand in Milwaukee. True the Sooners are in pretty bad shape but Oklahoma AD Joe Castiglione asked Buzz first, and the three year veteran, coming off of his first Sweet Sixteen run looked at the Sooners, and took a pass. Which leads me to think he, looking over the Golden Eagle 2011-12 roster and prospects (and a new contract?), had to like what he saw in Milwaukee more than Norman, a huge development given Williams' southwest roots. Though he (the Williams with a B) was out coached by Williams (the one with an R) last March, chalk that up to inexperience, something I suspect will happen less the longer he stays and the more notebooks he fills.

Oklahoma did find a good match in a very experienced Lon Kruger, but Marquette fans have to feel good going into this season. They lost NBA draftee Jimmy Butler, and a couple of other seniors (not to mention a promising front court player in Erik Williams), but return 62% of their 2010-11 minutes and 61.8% of the scoring, strong hints about the balance on the roster. Starters Darius Johnson-Odom (off guard...30.0 MPG, 15.8 PPG, 2.4 APG), Jae Crowder (#4, 27.6 MPG, 11.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG) and Chris Otule (#5, 17.6 MPG, 5.1 PPG, 3.6 RPG) are back, along with center Devante Gardner whose role and involvement grew as the season progressed. Expect the sophomore to challenge Otule for a larger role in the low post this season. DJO will be joined in the Marquette back court by junior Junior Cadougan (19.8 MPG, 4.0 PPG, 3.2 APG) who, along with sophomore Vander Blue (19.0 MPG, 5.1 PPG, 1.6 APG), have logged starts in their time at Marquette. Freshmen prospects Derrick Wilson, a 6-0 product of The Hotchkiss School will be Cadougan's back up at the #1, while Todd Mayo, a 6-3 guard out of Huntington, WV by way of Notre Dame Prep in Massachusetts (and younger brother of OJ Mayo) will join Blue and DJO in an off guard/wing rotation. Crowder along with Otule and Gardner will anchor the front court, but expect Oregon transfer Jamil Wilson to fill Butler's shoes on the wing. If he can become a consistent contributor and improve his outside shot, the Golden Eagles will not write this off as a "rebuilding" year. Expect freshman forward, 6-6 Juan Anderson (after he returns from his three game, NCAA-imposed suspension) and junior Jamail Jones to share time in the wing/forward rotation.

Marquette will headline a Paradis Jam field that also includes fellow power conference members Mississippi (SEC, the probable second round opponent) and Virginia (ACC, the probable Finals opponent). Though the field is augmented with CAA representative Drexel and MVC contender Drake, Marquette should win out. The balance of the out of conference slate features games with state rival Wisconsin (at Madison), Washington (Jimmy V Classic, New York City), at LSU (SEC) and Vanderbilt, an SEC contender. A one (even two) loss record going into conference play should not dampen the enthusiasm among fans (or on the Selection Committee). Mirror games with Cincinnati, Georgetown and Villanova means Marquette drew a more competitive-than-usual slate. 3-3 against that field would not be cause for alarm, 4-2 or 5-1 would be a very good sign. The Warriors will get home court advantage against Louisville and Pittsburgh two teams who should challenge for the conference regular season title. Beating at least one of the two would put Williams' crew on the path to a 7-2/8-1 conference home record, a prerequisite for a bye seed and serious run at the title. Their road opponents include Connecticut, Notre Dame, Syracuse and West Virginia, a tough draw that requires a dominating performance at home as a counter to a poor road showing. A 5-4 or better record away from the Bradley would be good news for Willliams' team.

Notre Dame -- Brey For the Defense?
Want to know how the Irish will do in conference play this season? Watch their defensive efficiency (points per possession allowed). Their winning percentage "moves" in the opposite direction as their defensive efficiency, as the table below suggests. Book it.

	Efficiency			Record
Year	Off.	Def.	Margin	W	L	Pct.
2007-08	1.101	1.036	0.065	14	4	0.778
2008-09	1.097	1.081	0.016	8	10	0.444
2009-10	1.135	1.097	0.038	10	8	0.556
2010-11	1.130	1.055	0.075	14	4	0.778

Understand that Notre Dame's defense will not win any awards soon. The Irish defensive points per possession (ppp) did not rank higher than 10 in any of the seasons listed above. They were ranked as low as #13 in 2008-09.

Coach Brey's squad returns 54.4% of Notre Dame's 2011 minutes and 49.5% of that squad's scoring. Though he will start the season on the bench, Tim Abromaitis (34.2 MPG, 15.4 PPG, 6.1 RPG) won't be benched for the second game. The staff used the fifth year wing/forward in an exhibition game his sophomore season and then red shirted him, a minor NCAA violation that should have no impact on Notre Dame's season -- Mississippi Valley State should offer little resistence. Eric Atkins (25.4 MPG, 5.8 PPG, 3.2 APG) will start at the point, much as he did last season, with fellow sophomore Joey Brooks (7.6 MPG, 1.6 PPG, 0.4 APG) along side him in the back court and senior Scott Martin (30.5 MPG, 9.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG) -- when his ankle is ready -- along side Abro on the wing. Brey will have the option of starting four guards (unlikely outside of the exhibition season), in which case he can call sophomore Alex Dragicevich or his classmate Jerian Grant, both of whom will fit into the regular rotation this season. Brey will go big and Jack Cooley (10.3 MPG, 3.7 PPG, 3.1 RPG), a Luke Harangody look-alike who appeared in all 34 games last season as Tyronne Nash's back up will get the nod. Freshman guard/forward Pat Connaughton (6-5, 206 pounds out of St. John's Prep in Arlington, Mass) will see time in the regular rotaton, while junior front court players Mike Broghammer and Tom Knight will draw situational minutes.

Notre Dame will compete in the CBE Classic, a mixed format invitational which provides two home games and a two round "championship" bracket against two BCS-level opponents on a neutral court (Kansas City, MO). The "regional" visitors are Detroit and Sam Houston State, while the Irish will face Missouri (Big 12) and one of California (Pac-12) or Georgia (SEC) in the second game. Missouri and California could be contenders in their respective conferences, while Georgia will finish somewhere in the middle of the SEC East. The Irish will travel to Washington state for a game with Gonzaga, then take a return engagement at the BB&T Classic to play Maryland (a strong showing in 2006-07 brought national exposure to the Kurz/Harangody front court combination). The out of conference scehcule winds down with a game in the Crossroads Classic versus Big Ten (and in state rival) Indiana. The Irish draw mirror games with Connecticut, Rutgers and West Virginia. If Notre Dame can perform on the road (an intermittent problem the past few seasons), they should log no worse than a 4-2 record (sweep Rutgers and split with UConn and WVU), with a ceiling of five wins, especially if West Virginia struggles. 3-3 signals a big problem with the 2012 edition of the program. If Notre Dame are "feeling normal", they Joyce Center will be a problem for everyone on their home slate (DePaul, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Providence, South Florida and Syracuse), though several (Pitt? Cuse? Marquette?) should be able to overcome the considerable advantage the Irish muster on their home court...4-2 perhaps? More likely 5-1 only if they are very, very good. The road slate as implemented may be less imposing than it looks on paper (Cincinnati, Georgetown, Louisville, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova). The Irish catch Cincinnati and Louisville early (Coach Pitino's teams tend to gel later in the season), while visiting both Georgetown and Villanova in February, a time when the Hoyas and Wildcats tend to fade. On paper 2-4 might look reasonable, but should Coach Brey's squad catch all the breaks, look for a ceiling of 5-1 -- in which case the Irish will be in serious pursuit of a bye seed to Madison Square Garden next March.

West Virginia -- Old Reliable?
The Big East coaches projected a #7 finish for the 'Eers with good reason -- West Virginia has not logged a losing conference record or a lower division finish in Bob Huggins four year tenure in Morgantown...

Season	W	L	Pct.	Mins
2010-11	11	7	0.668	55.9%
2009-10	13	5	0.722	65.9%
2008-09	10	8	0.556	61.9%
2007-08	11	7	0.668	53.8%

While the program returns only 39.3% of their 2010-11 minutes, the group will have nearly 45% of those points back.

Coach Huggins will bring back an inside-outside combination that should anchor both the front and back court contingents. Senior point guard Darryl Bryant (26.6 MPG, 11.6 PPG, 3.0 APG) will team with senior forward Kevin Jones (34.9 MPG, 13.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG) to bring experience to the lineup. Bryant, who had a period of adjustment between his freshman and sophomore seasons, has settled into the program and may be poised to have the season the Mountaineer Nation has anticipated since his All-Conference Rookie Team days. Huggins loves forwards and he will have several to look to this season, including returning junior rotation player Deniz Kilicli (16.4 MPG, 6.6 PPG, 4.0 RPG), a 6-9 bfc who was well regarded when he arrived in Morgantown (after a few delays) two seasons ago, red shirt freshman Kevin Noreen, a 6-10 245 pound bfc who played less than 40 minutes last season, 6-8, 240 pound JUCO junior Dominique Rutledge, a New Jersey native who made stops at Hutchenson CC (Kansas), Miami-Dade CC (Florida) and Western Texas College before landing in Morgantown. Rutledge, having played ball for Hutchenson and Miami-Dade, will be available immediately and has two years of eligibility. Those four will (barring injury) carrying the large portion of minutes (Jones, possibly Klicli -- sidelined with a ding to his knee and/or Noreen will start) though the freshman class also has several players to contribute to the front court rotation. Keaton Miles, a 6-6 'tweener out of Dallas, Texas started in West Virginia's exhibition loss to Northern Kentucky last weekend, while Pat Forsythe, a 6-11 240 pound center out of Brunswick High School in Ohio, Aaron Brown and Tommie McCune are also available (they combined for 26 minutes versus Northern Kentucky). In the back court, expect a starting tandem of Bryant and 5-11 Mount Vernon, NY native Jabari Hinds a veru well-regarded point guard. Include Paul Williamson (6-3, 195 lbs), Gary Browne (6-1, 185 lbs) and Aric Dickerson (6-5, 180 lbs) among the other freshmen who fill out the 2011-12 roster. A-10 refugees Aaric Murray (La Salle) and Juwan Statten (Dayton) will sit this season and continue their collegiate careers next season.

The out of conference schedule includes trips to Mississippi State (the Big East/SEC Challenge), a semi-neutral meeting with Kansas State, Miami in Morgantown and (pre)Christmas in Las Vegas that includes meetings with Missouri State and Baylor on consecutive nights. Getting to the conference regular season with a 12-0 record is not realistic, especially with the number of freshmen on the squad...11-1/10-2 however, is probable and would earn WVU a few votes in the polls. In addition to Backyard Brawl rival Pittsburgh, West Virginia drew Notre Dame and Rutgers as mirrors. 4-2 (sweep Rutgers, split with Pitt and NDU) seems reasonable, but given the early season road trip through the New York City metro area (Seton Hall and then Rutgers), the 'Eers may end up with three splits and 3-3 with the mirrors. Hosting Cincinnati, DePaul, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette and Villanova is especially fortuitous, given that 'Nati, GTown the Ville, Marquette and Nova should be WVU's nearest rivals in conference standings and the Coliseum is one of the least hospitable venues in the conference. 6-0/5-1 would put Huggins' squad in line for a bye seed. The road slate includes Connecticut, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, South Florida and Syracuse. Another very amenable slate for the 'Eers, 4-2 is probably the ceiling. 3-3, irrespective of the home and mirror records, is probably the floor...anything lower and WVU is probably not going to post a 0.500 or better record in conference play.

Elements They Share
Each of these four squads have an all-conference player or two. And if each has a question or two that will influence how their season plays out, none has an obvious hole in the roster that must be plugged to stay in the upper half of the conference. Their rotations are deep enough that a single injury would not derail the season. Two injuries on the other hand...

Most Likely to...(and why):
To Move Up a Quartile -- Cincinnati (or Marquette). Cronin and Williams are younger coaches whose players seem to respond to their passionate approach to basketball, game management and coaching. Each is a player (or a player-and-a-half) away from a Top 10 team. If Gates can hold down the low post with Thomas or Ellis emerging (along with Kilpatrick) on the wing or if Mbodj can improve over Thomas' contribution in the low post (and let Gates ad lib), then the Bearcats will be hard to stop. Can the Warriors' Wilson continue to work hard and stay focused? If the transfer can do that, and the Cadougan/Blue/Wilson combination make the point guard position work again for Marquette, then the Golden Eagles will pull a few upsets before the season's final gun.

Move Down a Quartile -- West Virginia. The 'Eers have a lot of questions to answer. If things break badly they may have problems holding the slide to 9-9. Notre Dame is another wildcatd. The Irish offense will be good -- it always is. Their standing will resolve over their defense.

Mia Culpa, Mia Maxima Culpa, 2011

Confessions & Observations...
I am a bit late with the previews this time around. The preseason was pre-empted with news and speculation about team movements among three BCS conferences and two-to-three nonBCS conferences, a process that seemed at times to take all of the oxygen out of the room. An especially distressing development as I was again reminded of the miniscule impact basketball had on the calculus of movement. Time to take a quick review of last season...

	2010-11 Actual					Proj.
Team	W	L	Pct	Seed	Qtl	Qtl
Cincinnati	11	7	0.611	7	2	3
Connecticut	9	9	0.500	9	3	3
DePaul	1	17	0.056	16	4	4
Georgetown	10	8	0.556	8	2	1
Louisville	12	6	0.667	4	1	2
Marquette	9	9	0.500	11	3	2
Notre Dame	14	4	0.778	2	1	3
Pittsburgh	15	3	0.833	1	1	1
Providence	4	14	0.222	14	4	4
Rutgers	5	13	0.278	13	4	4
Seton Hall	7	11	0.389	12	3	3
St. John's	12	6	0.667	5	2	2
South Florida	3	15	0.167	15	4	4
Syracuse	12	6	0.667	4	1	2
Villanova	9	9	0.500	10	3	1
West Virginia	11	7	0.611	6	2	1

Through a Looking Glass Darkly...
Ugh. It was a great season for the conference, as the Big East pulled down 11 invitaitons to the NCAA post season tournament, a record high for a conference, and with 68.8% of the members drawing bids, a record for post season money earned. Too bad the conference struggled in tournament play, moving only Marquette as far as the Sweet Sixteen last March. Though talk throughout the season centered on the notion that 11 bids were possible, I was a bit late to the party. I believed that the teams not invited would have to absorb a large number of losses (to insure most of the conference would have at least a 0.500 record) while those likely to draw the bids would have to split amongst themselves. Insuring the "perfect storm", the balance of Division I would have to relatively poor by comparison. It seems Division I was accomodating (unexpectedly) -- consider Butler, despite an unsteady 3-4 start that included a loss to Evansville, nevertheless ran to a consecutive Final Four, upsetting Pittsburgh before falling to #9 ranked (in conference play) Connecticut in the Championship Game. Within the Big East, sorting out the teams doomed to struggle was far easier than identifying the teams that would succeed.

Misses Mostly...
If I predicted the fourth quartile to the team, I missed pretty badly elsewhere. Of the four teams projected for first quartile finishes (Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Villanova and West Virginia), two (Georgetown and West Virgnia) finished in the second quartile while one (sigh, Villanova) fell all the way to the third quartile. I did manage to identify one second quartile finisher correctly (Cincinnati, though I would not have guessed they would finish higher than Villanova) to go with two third quartile finishers (Connecticut! -- right answer, wrong reason -- and Seton Hall). Notre Dame, a third quartile team in my projection ran to an excellent 14-4 record to finish #2, good for a BET bye seed and first quartile finish. I correctly placed half of the conference (within a quartile), but missed by two quartiles on two teams. Ouch.

What's Next
I decided to revert to a quartile-by-quartile preview, providing thumbnails of each team projected to finish in that specific quartile. The quartile previews will be posted over the course of this week. Other projects took time normally devoted to preparing the team-by-team previews, and I anticipated the addition of Texas Christian would preclude another oppportunity to preview the conference by fourths. Correct answer again, but for the wrong reason.

The Big East Conference 2012 -- Home & Road Opponents

Who Drew a Short Straw?
Most of the commentary about conference opponents has devolved into a recitation of the opposing slate laced with opinions (with a heavy reliance on memory and recollection...) of whether this player is returning, that recruit will make an impact and the other team was good/bad or will be better/worse than they were last season. With the many of the the "summer report" cycle winding down, many of the academic casualties going into the fall semester still unannounced, the NCAA Clearing House yet to process many in the incoming class, there is more speculation than fact available when looking at the home-away slates...

Maters of Their Domains?
Win the home games -- one of the first rules of conference play, comes into play every season. Running the home slate will not guarantee a top finish in conference play (think of Louisville's 9-0 record at the Yum! last season; the Cards still finished in a three-way tie for third and took the #4 seed at Madison Square Garden), but doing just better than 0.500 will not get your team into the bye seeds (think Villanova's #9 seed on a 5-4 home record). If your team is expected to challenge for a bye seed, which suggests your favorites ought to be able to go toe-to-toe with the conference heavyweights (...which would suggest your team is one of the conference heavyweights...), then common sense would dictate that the toughest opponents should come to visit. On homecourt your guys have the high ground. On the other hand, you your team is struggling for respectability, and a place in the post season conversation, then running up a big home court record (and taking your lumps on the road...) would be the better strategy...assuming your guys can keep it respectable on the road. Excluding the mirrors (I looked at those pairings in an earlier post), which teams got a draw that works for their strategy? I looked at home opponents...

	Opps	Ret.
Team	PWP	Min%	Comments
Seton Hall	0.448	0.491	'Ville, NDU & Pitt!
DePaul	0.441	0.645	Not a good draw for needs
St. John's	0.421	0.631	Thrown into the deep end?
Syracuse	0.414	0.519	What they want
Connecticut	0.408	0.494	A puzzle?
Rutgers	0.396	0.556	'Nati & Cuse
Marquette	0.387	0.476	A rebuilding year?
Notre Dame	0.380	0.687	A lot of routs in South Bend
Georgetown	0.369	0.556	RU, USF & PC...
Louisville	0.366	0.538	Swap Rutgers for 'Nati?
West Virginia	0.363	0.612	'Vill & 'Nati toughest
Providence	0.362	0.547	Host the Huskies
South Florida	0.352	0.432	Favorable for Bulls?
Cincinnati	0.337	0.678	Returning mins high
Villanova	0.331	0.661	See above
Pittsburgh	0.330	0.486	Cincinnati and...?!

The table orders the conference by average Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) of the non-mirror visiting teams. I also averaged that slate's returning minutes, to give myself an idea of whether each team would face a home slate with personnel similar to the personnel they faced in 2011. The conference average for returning minutes next season (as of July...) is 56.1%. The results brought a few surprises.

One of the more interesting questions is where Connecticut will fit in 2012. The Huskies, who finished #9 in the conference last season with a 4-5 road record, and will not have the services of Kemba Walker (or Jamal Coombs-McDaniels) next season, remain an enigma. Georgetown, Louisville and Villanova may count themselves lucky in that they get to host a sophomore-dominated squad next season without having to take a rematch in Storrs. St. John's, which returns all of 4.8% of their 2011 minutes (and 3.7% of their scoring), is another wildcard. Coach Steve Lavin will have an extremely talented -- but extremely young -- roster to mold. The Red Storm sported a relatively modest 0.333 road PWP last season, even lower than their 4-5 record would suggest. But given the virtual makeover for 2012, even 0.333 may be an overstatement. Will Marquette, Pittsburgh and Seton Hall regret not drawing the Johnnies at the Garden as a swap for say Notre Dame, Syracuse and Cincinnati (repsectively)? Though most expect Pittsburgh to contend again next season (Jamie Dixon has the best conference record of any Big East coach over the past five seasons), the Panthers cannot look to a favorable schedule mix as a boost. Of their non-mirror visitors, Cincinnati (0.447), Georgetown (0.425) and Villanova (0.405) have the highest road PWPs in 2011 conference games. Of those three, only the Bearcats return more than the conference average for minutes next season. For Cincinnati, the high percentage of returning minutes, combined with high percentage of returning scoring from their visitors will make matching their 2011 conference home record (6-3) a challenge. If the Bearcats want to move into the conference elites however, they will have to dominate that slate.

...And On the Road
The road strategy reverses for those aspiring to bye bids -- take the weakest teams in their buildings. For those struggling in conference play, opportunities to win are maximized at home, so take the conference elites on the road and hope to stem the bleeding in the low double digits...

	Opps	Ret.
Team	PWP	Min%	Comments
Louisville	0.710	0.484	St. John's & WVU skew mins
Notre Dame	0.706	0.471	Johnnies, Hoyas & Hall
Villanova	0.692	0.449	Johnnies, Hoyas & RU skew
DePaul	0.683	0.525	What Demons need?
Providence	0.679	0.503	Good for need?
Georgetown	0.666	0.616	'Ville, Pitt & Cuse Oh my!
South Florida	0.643	0.653	DPU only road softie...
Rutgers	0.620	0.627	Matches bubble strategy
Pittsburgh	0.620	0.633	UConn, NDU & Cuse
Seton Hall	0.616	0.654	Cuse & Nova
Marquette	0.612	0.650	Irish, Orange & 'Eers
Syracuse	0.593	0.487	Good match to need
West Virginia	0.580	0.553	Cuse & Huskies
St. John's	0.567	0.555	If team struggles...ouch
Cincinnati	0.558	0.521	A good match for need
Connecticut	0.521	0.596	Tailored to need?

I calculated the PWP for road games (conference only) for each team and averaged those road PWPs for each team's slate of opponents. Again mirrors have been excluded.

For Connecticut, Syracuse, De Paul and Providence, the slate matches the strategy pretty well. The Demons and Friars want wins, and conceding road games to the stronger teams in the conference in exchange for favorable home matchups should be cause for little concern. Each drew a challenging road slate that features Cincinnati and Notre Dame. The Huskies and Orange, by contrast, want their weakest opponents on the road, on the assumption they will beat them no matter where they play. Both feature road games with Rutgers, but other fourth quartile finishers are listed among each team's mirrors. Coach Calhoun's squad will see the Bulls, who sport the weakest 2011 home PWP this side of De Paul. Coach Boeheim drew De Paul, owner of the weakest home PWP last season. Syracuse also drew rebuilding St. John's. If the Storm struggles, this could prove to be a hidden bonus.

Exclusions, Exceptions...ie The Fine Print
The dynamics of a team are not especially predictable. It is rarely in a coach's (or school's) interests to disclose that half the squad does not want to play ball with the other half, or is planning to transfer at the end of the season. Injuries have derailed a team's season and a player's career, and yet remain among the wildcards. Players sometimes behave badly, the type of situation that most fans see far more clearly after the fact than before. All of those however are random and absolutely unknowable. The as yet uncharted elements that can impact a team's ability to successfully navigate their conference schedule...
1. Chronology & Sequence -- will the team draw the easier opponents earlier or later in the conference season? The distribution of "difficulty" might seem even in the preseason or early season, but unknowable events can strengthen or weaken slate as the season progresses. Villanova looked like a world beater eight games into their 2011 conference slate, having taken down Syracuse by double digits on the road, but four weeks later they could not beat South Florida on a neutral court.
2. Home/Away Distribution -- Though the conference tries to schedule no more than two consecutive away games, circumstances can make that impossible. A school may schedule an away out of conference opponent at the beginning or end of an away sequence, adding a level of difficulty (TV money can cloud judgement that way).
3. Youth vs. Maturity -- Common wisdom suggests freshmen-dominated squads "wear out" in the latter stages of the season. Balance that nugget with a countervailing common wisdom notion that freshmen progress as the season lengthens (think Jeremy Lamb here). How can we use that information when determining if the 'Eers (who return 39% of their minutes and 45% of their scoring) will be a better team to host than visit? How about St. John's, which returns 5% or their minutes and 4% of their scoring?

Thoughts on the Wildcats' Slate
The home-road slates are a mixed bag that would help if Villanova proves to be a bubble team next season. The 'Cats, who bring back 52% of their playing time and 47% of their scoring should benefit from drawing a comparatively weak home slate. Leaving out the mirrors, the 'Cats should be able to handle Seton Hall and De Paul, two teams they barely beat at the end of the 2011 season, not to mention Providence, a team that cleaned their clocks, all on the road last season. A youngr Connecticut squad (the Huskies swept the 'Cats in 2011) will visit as well. On the road, Pitt and Louisville will be tough unless everything falls into place for the 'Cats. Georgetown will depend as much on how well the new Hoyas gell as on the Wildcats' maturity. Villanova will revisit Rutgers, a team that beat them in overtime last season, and as been mentioned before, the enigmatic Johnnies will pose a challenge.

Early Season Invitational Tournaments -- 2011-12

Where the Big East Will Play Their Exempt Games
A post over at John Templon's new blog venture, Big Apple Buckets put me on to Blogging the Bracket's Early Season Invitational page. Chris Dobbertean has pulled together information about the fields for 20 tournaments, along with seven campus-only round robin multi-team events (MTEs) that appear to be in the process of forming fields that qualify for exempt tournament status.

	Tournament	Gms	Dates
Cincinnati	Round Robin Event?	4	TBD
Connecticut	Battle 4 Atlantis	3	Nov. 23-27
DePaul	Old Spice Classic	3	Nov. 24, 25 & 27
Georgetown	Maui Invitational	4	Nov. 21-23 (& campus)
Louisville	Round Robin Event?	4	TBD
Marquette	Paradise Jam	4	Nov. 18-21
Notre Dame	CBE Classic	4	Nov. 21-22 (& campus)
Pittsburgh	TBD	-	NA
Providence	South Padre Invitational	4	Nov. 25-26 (& campus)
Rutgers	Cancun Challenge	4	Nov. 14-19 (campus); Nov. 22-23
Seton Hall	Charleston Classic	3	Nov. 17, 18, 20
South Florida	Hall of Fame Tip-Off	4	Nov. 12, 14, 19-20
St. John's	Coaches vs. Cancer Classic	4	2 pod; Nov. 17, 18
Syracuse	NIT Tip-Off	4	Nov. 23, 25 (& campus)
Villanova	76 Classic	3	Nov. 24, 25 & 27
West Virginia	Las Vegas Classic	3	Christmas time?

Notes & Observations1. The two tournaments noted with question marks are unconfirmed, but seem to have varying degrees of certainty per Dobbertean's post of 4/27/11. Cincinnati appears to have a two year commitment to an event named "Global Sports Shootout". This season the games will center on the Bearcats' homecourt at Fifth-Third. Louisville, per Dobbertean, is close to forming/hosting an MTE of it's own out of the KFC Center in Louisville, which makes sense as the arena is brand new and Louisville scheduled quite a few events there last season. Pittsburgh appears to be the only Big East team not committed to an invitational tournament at this time.
2. The Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament will premier this season. Set on Paradise Island, Bahamas, the tournament will feature a possible match-up of Connecticut and Massachusetts. Those two regional rivals have not played since December of 2005. The series, which spanned 100 years and 108 games, has been on "hiatus" for the past five years.
3. The Las Vegas Classic is also new this season, and, like the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii, will be played during the Christmas season, rather than over Thanksgiving. That tournament will also feature a campus-hosted preliminary round that will precede the final two rounds in Las Vegas. Three hosting teams (Baylor, Missouri State and West Virginia) are the only teams committed so far. The sponsors need to find five more teams to fill out the field.
4. Syracuse, a team (like Pittsburgh) with a reputation for staying close to home in the season's first two months, will, according to Dobbertean (via John Rothstein), participate in the NIT Tip-Off. The preliminary round(s) are hosted at a campus site (perfect for the Carrier Dome), with the semi-finals and finals at Madison Square Garden, and that fits Syracuse's preferences to a tee.
5. Villanova will participate in the 76 Classic in Anaheim, California over the Thanksgiving Weekend. The field...

Team	Conf		Team	Conf
Boston College	ACC		New Mexico	MWC
Oklahoma	Big 12		UC Riverside	Big West
Saint Louis	A-10		Santa Clara	WCC
Washington St.	PAC-10

Five teams in the field won 20 or more games in 2010, while Oklahoma will have a new coach. Featured coaches in the field include Saint Louis' Rick Majerus and Villanova's Jay Wright, both of whom have been to the Final Four.
6. Coming into May, the fields for only nine of the 20 tournaments listed at Blogging the Bracket are filled. Several of the campus + travel tournaments have yet to even fill out their "host" brackets, while several have identified half or less of their projected field. Commitments for these tournaments used to be given years in advance, and it was not uncommon for the field in the coming year to be announced at the end of the tournament. This off season there seem to be more than the usual number of open/available spots in a few of the more prestigious -- the Charleston Classic, the CvC Classic and the CBE for example -- which makes me wonder if the exempt tournament niche has reached the saturation point. The first wave of tournaments after exempt tournaments no longer needed to apply for waivers from the NCAA forced a number of the more exotic locations (Top of the World Shootout) out of the field. Will there be a similar shakeout in the next season or two?

On Second Thought -- Plotting Trendlines for Big East Teams (pt 3)

Are Slumps Inevitable?
While even Top 5/10 teams seem to hit a point in the season where their performance seems to be below their usual level, will that slump produce a noticible "dip" in their offensive efficiency or a "rise" in their defensive efficiency (signs of a regession in their efficiency)? For Pittsburgh and Notre Dame, the answer in 2011 remarkably was no...neither appeared to register a detectable (per a third order polynomial trendline) regression in their efficiencies. The key is that while each lost multiple games (seven between in total between them), only Notre Dame managed to lose two consecutive games -- to Marquette (79-57) on 1/10 and to St. John's (72-54) on 1/16. Those two, double-digit losses account for neither lost The conference standings/seeds for the Big East Tournament:

	W	L	Pct.
Pittsburgh	15	3	0.833
Notre Dame	14	4	0.776
Syracuse	12	6	0.667
Louisville	12	6	0.667
St. John's	12	6	0.667
Cincinnati	11	7	0.611
West Virginia	11	7	0.611
Georgetown	10	8	0.556
Connecticut	9	9	0.500
Villanova	9	9	0.500
Marquette	9	9	0.500
Seton Hall	7	11	0.389
Rutgers	5	13	0.278
Providence	4	14	0.222
South Florida	3	15	0.167
DePaul	1	17	0.056

(3T #4) Louisville

They worked though the slump early...

The roster Coach Rick Pitino started the 2011 season with could not have been the one he envisioned the preceding April/May. If the Cardinals struggled with an uncertain roster and freshmen playing crucial roles in the offense, the offensive surge through the last half of conference play, coupled with the nearly season-long improvement in defense suggested they were poised for another deep post season run. Louisville finished with a 12-6 conference record and a bye seed. They used the bye to run to the BET Championship Game, losing by three, 69-66, to Connecticut. Their opening round loss to Morehead State, 62-61, six days later was shock and had to be, to the Cardinal Nation, an especially disappointing end to their season. Attributing that faltering finish to Rakeem Buckles' season-ending ACL injury in the Pittsburgh game (#16 on the chart above) maybe be tempting, but inconsistent offensive production from Peyton Siva, Preston Knowles and Kyle Kuric (those three combined for 21 points on 7-23 shooting in Louisville's loss to Morehead State) and freshmen "burnout" of Gorgui Dieng, coupled with season-long uneven contributions from the front court returning contingent is probably a more accurate assessment.

(2 #2) Notre Dame

The offense steadily improved?!

Though the Irish lost four conference games, including three (to Syracuse and two in a row to Marquette and St. John's) in the first third of the season, they were one of two teams -- conference regular season champion Pittsburgh was the other -- whose offensive efficiency trendline never dipped below their defensive efficiency trendline. Despite the three early losses (double-digits, all three) Notre Dame's offensive efficiency improved at a rate sufficient (and a glance at the trendline suggests a constant rate as well) to keep their offensive trendline above their (at that point...) regressing defensive trendline. That offensive caught my eye because it appears to be a nearly continuous rate of improvement (a kind of season-long opposite of Villanova's season-long offensive decline) through the entire conference season. The range of improvement is truly unusual, rising from a 101/102 range at the start of the conference season to finish above 120 (122/123?) by the end. And that rate was adjusted for the competition. If Coach Mike Brey's offensive efficiency is impressive, the rising defensive efficiency through the last third of the conference season may well have provided a hint of the problems that ended Notre Dame's season. Drawing a #2 seed in the Big East Tournament, the Irish could not stop Louisville in the semi-finals, falling by six points after an overtime period on Friday night. A #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament should have given them an easier path to the Swee Sixteen, but a cold shooting night versus Florida State (coupled with an 114.2 defensive efficiency in that 62 possession game...) 71-56, in the second round.

(1 #1) Pittsburgh

The gap between defensive efficiency and offensive efficiency was promising...

Coach Jamie Dixon's squad also registered an offensive trendline that stayed above the defensive trendline all season long, despite losing three games on their way to a #1 seed in the Big East Tournament. Strong, consistent defense managed to help the Panthers weather a mid season offensive slump that bottomed out with Ashton Gibb's injury (and absence through games #11 through #13). Talib Zanna's season-ending injury (he missed the last four games of the regular season and Pittsburgh's three post season games) was not the cause of Pittsburgh's early exit from the BET and NCAAs, but for a squad that played the maximum 31 games in the regular season, Zanna's 10+ minutes in the rotation were crucial to keep McGhee and Robinson fresh. With a combination of experienced players and a deep squad, this was the season seemed to favor Pittsburgh taking a deep NCAA run, with the Final Four a realistic possibility. The Panthers earned a #1 seed (West Region), but ran into a hot Butler squad in the second round, and suffered a one point loss, 71-70, in the second round.

(3T #5) St. John's

The double intersection...but in the wrong direction

Unlike Connecticut, Coach Steve Lavin's Johnnies' "double helix" trendline was curved in the wrong directions through the season. Stumbling into the Big East season with several unexpected out of conference losses, the veteran St. John's squad appeared to "get it" after hitting the bottom in the first half of the conference season (they were 4-5 through the first nine conference games). A strong run through the second half of the conference slate (a single loss Seton Hall in game #17 capped an 8-1 run through the last nine conference games). Though DJ Kennedy had not yet ended his career with an injury, the Johnnies were already showing signs of a late season slump. Dwight Hardy, a wing complement to Kennedy, was already having problems scoring efficiently, relying more on volume shooting to meet his quota for points in the St. John's system. Kennedy's injury hastened the Red Storm's exit from the Big East Tournament (a semi-final loss to Syracuse after eliminating Rutgers in the quarter-final round), and set the stage for a bookend loss to a West Coast Conference team in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. St. John's opened the early season ESPN-sponsored television marathon in November with a televised loss Gonzaga's conference mate, St. Mary's.

(3T #3) Syracuse

Evidence of a mid-season slump...

Few expected the Orange to have a season like 2010, but Coach Beoheim's squad managed to exceed the consensus predictions for their conference record. After a solid 12-6 conference record and pull down a double-bye (a #3 seed) for the Big East Tournament. Having weathered a mid-season slump (their record in games #6 through #14 was 3-6), the Orange seemed to be poised for a deep post season run in the Big East Tournament, if not the NCAAs. Syracuse was eliminated in the semi-final round at Madison Square Garden by a streaking Connecticut team (76-71). The Selection Committee did them no favors in the NCAAs when they matched them with conference mate Marquette in the second round. Despite being favored, the Orange lost by four to Buzz Williams' Golden Eagles, 66-62.

Guest Contributor: Ray Floriani The NCAA Women's Finals

by Ray Floriani

LYNDHURST, NJ - The two teams lining up on Tuesday night in Indianapolis were not supposed to survive their respective regional. No apologies needed as Texas A & M defeated Notre Dame 76-70 to capture their first NCAA championship in women's basketball. The pace and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Notre Dame	71	99
Texas A&M	73	104

Pace was on the faster order of the day. To no surprise, it became more half court in the stretch with so much at stake. The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Notre Dame	48	39	24	23
Texas A&M	57	30	26	25

Turnover rates on the higher side but credit the respective defenses. The aggie shooting percentage largely attributed to their outstanding marksmanship from two point range. Texas A & M shot 27 of 46 (59%) from two. They were only 2 of 7 from beyond the arc but one of those was arguably the game decider. That trey came courtesy of Tyra White, came with under a minute to play , with A & M clinging to a two point lead and the shot clock about to expire.

Danielle Adams, led all scorers with 30 points. The A & M senior was especially effective in the paint. Adams shot 13 of 20 (65%) from two point range. She pulled down a team high 9 rebounds (4 of them offensive). Not all of Adams' work was restricted to the lane as she knocked down a few mid-range shots as well.

Penetration and inside play allowed Notre ame to draw fouls and get to the line. Skylar Diggins' the Irish's outstanding lead guard led ND with 23 points, shooting 8 of 9 from the charity stripe.

Devereaux Peters was also effective for Muffet McGraw's club. She scored 21 points, shot 8 of 10 from two point range and five of her game high 11 boards were on the offensive end.

Manley Game Leaders
The top five in the Manley numbers:

	Manley
	Efficiency
D. Peters, NDU	28
D. Adams, A&M	28
T. White, A&M	24
S Diggins, NDU	14
A. Elonu, A&M	12
S. Colson, A&M	12

Numbers tie breakers were done by minutes. In other words, Peters put up her efficiency total in 36 minutes (.777 eff per minute). Adams' 28 was accomplished in 39 minutes for a.718 eff. Per minute.

National championship was the first in Gary Blair's illustrious head coaching career that has spanned three decades. Blair was an assistant on the Louisiana Tech title team in the Eighties. Notre Dame captured the championship in 2001 under McGraw. At 64 he is the oldest head coach to win a Women's NCAA basketball championship. UCONN's Jim Calhoun, with his victory on Monday night over Butler, became the 'elder statesman' on the men's side with his title at age 68.

To get to Indianapolis, Notre Dame had to defeat Tennessee to win the Dayton regional. The Irish lost the twenty prior meetings with the Lady Vols. In the national semis the Irish defeated UCONN which won the three previous meetings against ND this season.

Texas A & M had to beat Baylor, whom they were 0-3 against this year, for a trip to the Final Four. Their semifinal was against highly regarded Stanford and was settled until the final seconds.

On Tuesday, Notre Dame and Texas A & M gave us a wonderful contest. Shame someone had to exit disappointed.

Texas A & M coach Gary Blair in December at the Maggis Dixon Classic

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: A Quick Recap of Notre Dame & Florida State

by Ray Floriani

LYNDHURST, NJ - To quote a Seventies rock song, ‘another one bites the dust’. Florida State eliminated two seed Notre Dame with a convincing 71-57 victory. The Seminoles advance to the sweet 16 to face VCU. The numbers:

		Off.
Team	Poss.	Off.
Notre Dame	64	89
Florida State	64	111

* The Fighting Irish had another impressive TO rate, 13%. That was about it for the positives. Florida State played the role of aggressor, putting together some impressive ‘Notre Dame-like’ offensive numbers. The Seminoles’ eFG percentage was 55%. Interestingly Leonard Hamilton’s group shot better from three (47%) than two (45%) point range. Notre Dame struggled to find the mark anywhere. They shot 31% on the game. Tim Abromaitis (21) and Ben Hansbrough (18) put points on the board but were a combined 13 of 31 (42%) from the field. No one else on Mike Brey’s club stepped up. Nor did they have an answer for Florida State’s junior forward Bernard James, who turned in an impressive 14 point, 10 rebound, 3 block effort.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Big East Tournament, Day 3

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY - The action, recap and assorted numbers of importance from day three.

Outside the rain soaked Garden in the afternoon

The scores...

Team	Score			Team
UConn	76		74	Pittsburgh
Syracuse	79		73	St. John's
Notre Dame	89		51	Cincinnati
Louisville	81		56	Marquette

between doubleheaders, quiet time

Game of the Day:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Syracuse	71	111
St. John's	70	104

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Syracuse	50	34	45	21
St. John's	51	26	47	27

Game was tied at 68 with two minutes left. In the stretch Syracuse made the plays and came up with the stops. Last two minutes saw six possessions each. Syracuse had an 11-5 advantage. That is an offensive efficiency 'lead' of 183-83. When St. John's was trailing and fouled to extend the game, the Orange canned 5 of 6 from the charity stripe.

Good signs for the Orange: Brandon Triche, playing well down the stretch, led the way with 22 points. Triche was 4 of 10 from three and 8 of 8 on the foul line. Fab Melo, the seven foot freshman, also playing well of late, scored 12 points and had 4 boards.

Dwight Hardy led St. John's with 22 points as well. Hardy was 9 of 17 from the floor and had 5 turnovers.

The turnover rate was not awful for Syracuse. The Orange committed a total of 19 but an encouraging note. Only three were after halftime.

Virtually every statistical category was close or near even. Again the difference was Syracuse converting on offense and coming up with defensive stops. Especially the last two minutes.

Steve Lavin meets the press

Notes
UConn had a 129-128 edge in offensive efficiency the first game. Pitt shot an eFG% mark of 63%. On the other end, UConn had an outstanding 10% TO rate and an OReb percentage of 52%.

Ashton Gibbs of Pitt led the way with 27 points, hitting 6 of 7 from three. Kemba Walker had 24 points and the game winner to put UConn in the semis against Syracuse.

Notre Dame had an off the chart 146 efficiency against Cincinnati. Irish defense only yielded 86, not too bad. Game was 60 possessions. Versatility showed as ND shot 8 of 16 from three point range the first half. In the first 8 minutes of the final half, six of the Irish 8 field goals were in the paint.

The final game of the night saw a rout on the scoreboard and in efficiency. Louisville had the offensive efficiency gain 119-85. Cards attempted 48% of their shots beyond the arc. Many of the treys came in transition as they enjoyed a 57% eFG% percentage. They shot 13 of 31 (42%) from three. Mike Marra, a 22 point scorer for Louisville in relief was a perfect 1 for 1 from two point range. The sophomore guard went a red hot 6 of 10 from three.

Marquette, once again cared for the ball with an 18% TO rate. Shooting however, was another story. A 3 of 15 showing beyond the arc contributed to a 33% eFG performance and a trip home.

yours truly and Notre Dame cheerleaders

Big East Aerial -- Notes at the End of the Conference Play

Looking Ahead...Looking Back
The seeds for the Big East Tournament are settled; the first round games kicked off several hours ago. I thought a quick look at how the conference teams settled out from conference play would be in order. The conference-wide efficiency average was 103.7, probably the highest weekly average during all of conference play? And higher than season's past, suggesting a good many teams are either better offensively...or worse defensively. How did the teams place on the Offense/Defense grid? Glad you asked...

A strange scatter chart given talk of 10-11 teams going to the NCAAs this season. That chart applied to any other conference would probably elicit comments of a down season. The chart offers visual proof that Pittsburgh is indeed the best in conference, and clearly deserving of the #1 seed in the Big East Tournament and the NCAA Tournament. Syracuse, whose season seemed in jeopardy at one point, And once again Notre Dame proves that Coach Mike Brey can offer average defense and prevail with a superior, in this case "Best in Conference"-level offense. Consider that every conference loss suffered by the Irish came when their offense failed. In their conference losses the Irish averaged an offensive efficiency of 88.6 (about 0.89 points per possession) against a 119.9 offensive efficiency (about 1.2 points per possession) in their 14 conference wins. In their 14 conference wins the Irish averaged a 103.0 defensive efficiency, just slightly better than the conference-wide average of 103.7 (or about 1.04 points per possession). In their four losses (to West Virginia, Syracuse, Marquette and Louisville) note that two of those teams (WVU and 'Cuse) are "Good/Good" Quadrant teams, and a third (the 'Ville) is strong defensive team. In only the offensively challenged Seton Hall game did Notre Dame fail to average at least one point per possession (0.93 ppp) as they shot in the 40s (their eFG% was 47.9%) and still manage to win -- the only game in 2011 (so far) where they failed to average at least 1.0 point per possession and still win. Their Providence (94-93) win, extreme certainly, but illustrative of "The Brey Way", had Notre Dame post (Ken Pomeroy's Notre Dame team page) an offensive efficiency of 138.3 versus a defensive efficiency of 136.9. A horse race game plan that blitzed opposing teams with suspect defenses. The table of team offensive and defensive efficiencies, conference play only...

	Conf. Games			Net Eff.
	Efficiencies			(vs. 103.7)
Team	Off.	Def.		Off.	Def.
Cincinnati	103.0	98.1		-0.7	5.6
Connecticut	102.2	101.4		-1.5	2.2
DePaul	95.8	117.2		-7.9	-13.5
Georgetown	102.6	103.7		-1.0	0.0
Louisville	103.4	96.7		-0.2	7.0
Marquette	110.3	107.0		6.7	-3.3
Notre Dame	113.0	105.5		9.3	-1.9
Pittsburgh	110.5	96.0		6.9	7.6
Providence	101.0	111.1		-2.6	-7.4
Rutgers	100.9	108.2		-2.7	-4.6
Seton Hall	95.8	98.7		-7.8	5.0
South Florida	97.2	109.4		-6.5	-5.7
St. John's	102.2	100.1		-1.4	3.6
Syracuse	107.8	98.9		4.2	4.7
Villanova	107.7	106.2		4.1	-2.5
West Virginia	104.9	100.4		1.3	3.2
Average	103.7	103.7
Std Dev	4.99	5.73

Sorted alphabetically by team, the results through the end of conference play Saturday March 5. The five teams clustered just to the minus side of the Y-Axis (the demarcation for offensive efficiency) is somewhat odd, but remember all of those teams are in the NCAAs, with Louisville also having earned a bye seed in the Big East Tournament. Only two bye teams, Pittsburgh and Syracuse are located in the "Good/Good" Quadrant. The other two bye teams, Lousville and Notre Dame are located in one of the "Bad/Good" quandrants. Notre Dame -- no surprise -- is ranked in the Good Offense/Bad Defense Quadrant. The Cardinals however, show good defense, with an offense that sits just over the "Bad Offense" side of the Y (offense) axis. Their success this season measured by how well they stopped the opponent, rather than whether they could out shoot them. Marquette and Villanova offer interesting cases. Both teams will probably go to the NCAAs, and both, like Notre Dame, had good offenses. Yet each struggled, betrayed it seems, by poor defensive play. For Villanova more specifically, an inability to get crucial stops. Many inside the Nova Nation welcomed the strong correlation between shot conversion and winning earlier in the Big East season. Perhaps they overlooked the implications of that correlation. On several occasions, the 'Cats, leading their Big East opponent, needed a stop on the last possession (or so) of the game. And they just did not get that stop.

Better offenses or weaker defenses?
Consider the adjusted offense/defense efficiencies per Ken Pomeroy's Big East Conference Page. Noting a rank of #20 or higher as elite (about the 6^th percentile and higher in Division1) that the conference has five teams counted among the elites on offense, and five among the elites on defense. Two teams, Pittsburgh (surprised?) and Syracuse counted among the elites on both sides of the ball. The other two bye teams, Notre Dame and Louisville are counted as elite on offense (Notre Dame) and defense (Louisville). I have noted Seton Hall's defense several times in Differential/Net Efficiency postings this season. The young coach will not place on anyone's Coach of the Year lists, but credit him for getting his Pirate crew to play defense. The Hall is, by the way one of the conference's "elite" defensive teams, as suggested by their position in the "Good Defense/Bad Offense" Quadrant. Twelve of the conference's teams are ranked in the First Quartile for offense, with three others ranked in the Second Quartile. Only South Florida is ranked in the (at top of the) Third Quartile. Defensively, 14 teams are ranked in the First Quartile, one in the Second Quartile, with the last team, DePaul, ranked near the bottom of the Third Quartile, odd for an Oliver Purnell-coached team. During his first four seasons at Clemson, Purnell's defense outperformed his offense.

End of the Conference Season Roundtables...
Pico Dulce again chaired a Big East bloggers round table discussion, the proceedings of which you can catch over at his newest blog, Rumble in the Garden. Topics covered include...
Player of the Year & the Blogger's pick for All-Big East Teams.
The Blogger's Pick for Coach of the Year -- I thought it was very close between Rick Pitino of Louisville and Steve Lavin of St. John's. I settled on Coach Pitino, but was hardly disappointed that the consensus was Coach Lavin. I was remiss for not including an Honorable Mention for Coach Mick Cronin, whose Cincinnati Bearcats have done a fantastic job getting to the NCAAs this season. The 2010 edition was supposed to be the team that impressed, with All-Conference players Deonta Vaughn and Lance Stephenson, but it was the Yancy Gates/Dion Dixon/Sean Kirkpatrick led squad that got it done this season. I believe this will turn the heat down a bit under Coach Cronin's seat.
The Surprise/Disapponting Teams...St. John's and Villanova, one of them in a landslide. And if you have the slightest doubt, I suggest you follow the link. Or follow the link anyway, it is a good read.
Players -- Surprises & Disappointments -- bloggers from each team identified the good ones and bad ones from the teams they covered. I enjoyed reading about the other teams...a few of the good players were a surprise to me.
Newcomer & Rookie of the Year.
Brian Lerner over at the Hoya Prospectus Blog has posted performance charts for all Big East teams. Those looking for comparisons during the season, and especially the last 5 games should find what they need there.

Notre Dame Post Game: Hello? Anyone Home?

Muttering Ineffectually
In a game that will rival the St. Mary's loss in the round of 32 last March, the Wildcats coughed a gigantic, 93-72 hairball for a national audience Monday night. In a performance that epitomized February of 2010 and 2011, Villanova played virtually no defense while allowing Notre Dame to score just about any way they wanted at the Joyce Center in South Bend. The Irish fan-base must be ecstatic.

The Athletic Department website posted the official boxscore and the AP wire story, "Fisher's 22 Not Enough...", lead with the Notre Dame seniors complementing their staff and themselves over their terrific shooting performance. And who can blame them, really? How many times in a player's career will his team hit 20 three point shots? 60 of Notre Dame's 93 points (64.5%) were scored from beyond the arc. The breakdown (no pun intended) by halves...

Opponent:			Notre Dame University
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	31.8	32.6	64.4
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	84.8	138.2	111.8		147.7	141.3	144.4
eFG%	39.3	70.3	55.8		71.7	79.5	75.0
TORate	15.7	12.3	14.0		12.6	18.4	15.5
OR%	26.3	20.0	23.5		33.3	27.3	30.8
FTA/FGA	28.6	3.1	15.0		20.0	63.6	38.5
FTM/FGA	17.9	0.0	8.3		13.3	50.0	28.8
ARate	60.0	66.7	64.3		75.0	84.6	79.3
Blk%	7.1	3.1	5.0		0.0	4.5	1.9
Stl%	9.4	6.0	7.7		3.1	6.3	4.7
PPWS	0.85	1.39	1.12		1.43	1.61	1.51
2FG%	44.4	56.3	50.0		45.5	44.4	45.0
3FG%	20.0	56.3	42.3		57.9	69.2	62.5
FT%	62.5	0.0	55.6		66.7	78.6	75.0
%2FG	59.3	40.0	47.2		21.3	17.4	19.4
%3FG	22.2	60.0	45.8		70.2	58.7	64.5
%FT	18.5	0.0	6.9		8.5	23.9	16.1

Down 20 at the Half...
The Wildcats controlled the opening tip, but Antonio Pena's miss 16 seconds into the game was Villanova's last chance this game to take the lead. Rebounded by Tim Abromaitis, Notre Dame wing Carleton Scott hit a three point shot 12 seconds into their first possession and Notre Dame was off to the races. Villanova scored on consecutive possessions only twice in the half. And they never score on three consecutive possessions in that half.

Giving up 1.48 points followed by 1.41 points per possession in consecutive halves (see table above -- "Rate" is points per 100 possessions) might be unprecedented in the Jay Wright Era. The worst (possession-based) half recently was the second half of Villanova's 78-76 win over Marquette on January 9, 2010, where the 'Cats gave up 1.59 points per possession. Two halves of 1.4 or more however has not happened in the Ear of the Two Coreys. Truly a new low for a program that prides itself on tough defense (though with problems defending the three). The culprit was three point defense, a troublesome problem until the 2009 season, when defending the arc seemed to become a priority again. Notre Dame's 62.5 conversion rate, every bit the fluke it appears, was not only responsible for the win (note Notre Dame's two point conversion rate, 45.0% is actually below the Division 1 average of 47.8%) but also the blowout. To put into context, had Notre Dame attempted only two point field goal, the Irish would have had to convert at a 93.8% rate to yield as many points as they earned from their 62.5% three point conversion rate.

Numbers...Next
Notre Dame raises their record to 24-5 overall and 13-4 in conference play. The Irish finish the season at Connecticut Saturday, then prepare for their quarter final Big East Tournament game Thursday. Villanova's record drops to 21-9 overall and 9-8 in conference play. The Wildcats close out the season at Pittsburgh Saturday. They will then begin preparations for their Big East Tournament game, either Tuesday or Wednesday.