The Wildcats will close out their Big East regular season when they host the Providence College Friars at the Pavilion Thursday evening. Providence was Villanova's 3rd mirror (home-n-away) opponent in conference play this season. The Wildcats beat the Friars, 94-91, in a track meet at the Dunkin Donuts Center back on February 4th. Nova leads this series 49-34...
So Far, & What They are Playing For...
...Since their first meeting, Providence (18-11, 10-7, RPI #69) has entered an alternating win-loss "doublet" sequence (LLWWLLWW...) that they have run to a 10-7 Big East Conference record so far. An RPI-based comparison will highlight Villanova and Providence's body of work this season...
The highlight of their season so far is the 67-57 win over then #1 Pittsburgh at the Dunkin Donuts on February 24th. That win, combined with their above .500 conference record are two strong points on the resume the Selection Committee will mull over at the end of next week. A run in the Big East Tournament will bolster those credentials. A road win over a Top 25 team would help too. Providence is in contention for a Tuesday night bye in the Big East Tournament. A win at Villanova would virtually guarantee a Big East Tournament bye into Wednesday night. Villanova is in the hunt for the double bye at NYC. They hold the tie-breaker over Marquette, and a win over Providence gives them no worse than a tie with Marquette (no matter how the Warriors do in their last game with Syracuse)...
Roster Notes...
...The Friars have changed very little over the month, Coach Davis has spent February fine tuning his basic 8 man rotation. McDermott and Kale will start in the front court with Randall Hanke rotating in for 10+ minutes. Coach Davis goes with experience in the back court, starting Curry at the point, with Efejuku and Xavier on the wing. Brian McKenzie and Marshon Brooks will see double digit minutes on the court as well. Brooks has emerged as the Friar's spark plug off the bench. His offensive rating, as of 3/1, was 111.5, an outstanding efficiency, though down a bit since early February (no doubt from the attention he has drawn), but still above the team's efficiency (110.9). Efejuku has improved over the course of February, bumping his offensive rating (according to Pomeroy's Providence Team Page) from 108 to 113 while maintaining his shot% (at about 23%), a very good sign of his development.
Villanova's staff has started Dante Cunningham & Shane Clark in the front court for the last 11 games, most of the Big East season, expect it to continue tonight in this, the last game these seniors will play at the Pavilion. Dwayne Anderson, the third starting senior, will hold down the wing, with Scottie Reynolds and Reggie Redding manning the back court spots. Clark's offensive rebounding has been outstanding (with one or two exceptions) during this run. Reggie Redding has developed nicely, contributing where he is needed (points, defense, rebounding) when one of the others struggles. The rotation runs out to 8 men, so expect the Coreys, Fisher and Stokes to see time in the back court (Fish) and wing (Stokes), with Antonio Pena pulling some time in relief (or alongside of) Cunningham in the paint. Pena had 13 very effective minutes in the Notre Dame game, it would be terrific to see him have another productive outing before the Big East Tournament/NCAA...
By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
With an adjusted tempo of 73.1, Providence is among the "fastest" D1 teams (ranked #12 -- the D1 average is still 66.7). The pace may suit the 'Cats just fine, as they have run off a series of uptempo wins in February (defense does seem to suffer...). Expect the pace for this game to go well into the 70s. The Friars have managed to maintain their offensive and defensive efficiencies throughout February (as the chart below shows), a very difficult accomplishment in the heart of the Big East season.
Comparing the elements that most influence Providence's rating with Villanova's defensive factors...
The Friars are more efficient at converting 2FGAs (52.5, #37 by Ken Pomeroy) than 3FGAs (32.2%, #256, also per Pomeroy), a bit paradoxical given Providence is among those D1 teams that are more inclined to shoot 3s (34.8% of their FGAs are 3FGAs, ranking them #115 among D1 schools). The Wildcats, committed to limiting conversions inside the arc, are currently holding opponents to a 45.3% 2FGA conversion rate. Their "shut down the inside" bias sets up an inside struggle with the Friars. Who will shoot tonight? In descendng order, expect shots from Brooks (26.7), Xavier (23.9), Efejuku (23.5) and Hanke (21.7). From beyond the arc, look for Jeff Xavier (-47.5), Brian McKenzie (33.6) or Marshon Brooks (-17.9) as those three are the most "outside" scorers on the squad, according to Kenvin Pelton's inside/outside formula (each player's score is listed in parenthesis). Efejuke, who came to Friar Town with the reputation as a mad bomber, has developed a bias towards inside scoring (18.5). Expect him to take a lot of shots (he is on the court a good deal), but will take the ball to the cup if the lane is open. Hanke is an extremely efficient scorer -- his eFG% is a Roy Hibbert-like 65.6 (remember, he takes no 3s).
The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus Providence's defense:
The eFG% contrast suggests the 'Cats should have a good night from the field. And if they miss, they should have a few 2nd chance opportunities. The Friar's (unlike the Irish) force turnovers, don't expect another 5 turnover night. What they don't do is foul. The margin of expected victory is >10 however, so FTMs may not play a big role tonight. But if the score is closer (a 1-2 possession game), those foul-induced points may not be available...
Want to Beat the Friars? Then...
Shooting dominates as a critical factor for both squads. But for Villanova, effectively limiting opponent's second chance points is becoming an important key as well. Both teams appear to have difficulty winning when the pace rises to 71 or higher.
1. Defend their shooting -- When the Friar's eFG% was 50.0 or lower they were 5-7. When they were held to 44.7 or less they went 4-7.
2. Hit your shots -- Villanova's eFG% has been 52.0 or better (Georgetown aside) in the last week or so of February. When the conversion rate has been that high, Providence's record is 3-8. Nova's record when they have converted at 49.0 or better is 11-0.
3. Limit Turnovers -- The Friars are 5-5 when their opponents have a turnover rate of 18.8 or less. The 'Cats are 13-1 when they turn the ball over at that rate or lower.
Finally...
...Carrots & sticks -- there are rewards and penalties for both teams tonight. Given the lateness of the hour, each is a good deal more tangible right now. Losing puts the Wildcats back to #5 seed and cheering for Paul Harris and the Orange (not something I want to do the last weekend of the regular season...). The 'Cats are looking at a #3/#4 seed in the Dance, a loss probably strengthens the argument for a #4 rather than a #3. The Friars want a Dance bid; the last chance for the McDermott, Kale, Efejuku (and with his redshirt year...) Hanke class. That group entered with so much promise four years ago, but aside from an NIT bid in their sophomore year, no life after the BET. These guys are very close this year.
Per Ken Pomeroy's Villanova Team Page, this game should go for about 74 possessions (both team's comfort zone), with Nova taking a 14 point win. Pomeroy's degree of certainty (87%) is well within a comfort range (near certainty?). Coupled with the margin of victory, this suggests the game should not be especially close -- not a 1 - 2 possession game. But of course that was also projected for the Georgetown game last weekend...
So Far, & What They are Playing For...
...Since their first meeting, Providence (18-11, 10-7, RPI #69) has entered an alternating win-loss "doublet" sequence (LLWWLLWW...) that they have run to a 10-7 Big East Conference record so far. An RPI-based comparison will highlight Villanova and Providence's body of work this season...
| vs RPI | Conference | ||||||
| RPI | 1-50 | 51-100 | >100 | Overall | Home | Away | |
| Providence | 69 | 2-7 | 3-4 | 18-0 | 10-7 | 6-3 | 4-4 |
| Villanova | 14 | 5-6 | 6-0 | 16-0 | 12-5 | 6-2 | 6-3 |
The highlight of their season so far is the 67-57 win over then #1 Pittsburgh at the Dunkin Donuts on February 24th. That win, combined with their above .500 conference record are two strong points on the resume the Selection Committee will mull over at the end of next week. A run in the Big East Tournament will bolster those credentials. A road win over a Top 25 team would help too. Providence is in contention for a Tuesday night bye in the Big East Tournament. A win at Villanova would virtually guarantee a Big East Tournament bye into Wednesday night. Villanova is in the hunt for the double bye at NYC. They hold the tie-breaker over Marquette, and a win over Providence gives them no worse than a tie with Marquette (no matter how the Warriors do in their last game with Syracuse)...
Roster Notes...
...The Friars have changed very little over the month, Coach Davis has spent February fine tuning his basic 8 man rotation. McDermott and Kale will start in the front court with Randall Hanke rotating in for 10+ minutes. Coach Davis goes with experience in the back court, starting Curry at the point, with Efejuku and Xavier on the wing. Brian McKenzie and Marshon Brooks will see double digit minutes on the court as well. Brooks has emerged as the Friar's spark plug off the bench. His offensive rating, as of 3/1, was 111.5, an outstanding efficiency, though down a bit since early February (no doubt from the attention he has drawn), but still above the team's efficiency (110.9). Efejuku has improved over the course of February, bumping his offensive rating (according to Pomeroy's Providence Team Page) from 108 to 113 while maintaining his shot% (at about 23%), a very good sign of his development.
Villanova's staff has started Dante Cunningham & Shane Clark in the front court for the last 11 games, most of the Big East season, expect it to continue tonight in this, the last game these seniors will play at the Pavilion. Dwayne Anderson, the third starting senior, will hold down the wing, with Scottie Reynolds and Reggie Redding manning the back court spots. Clark's offensive rebounding has been outstanding (with one or two exceptions) during this run. Reggie Redding has developed nicely, contributing where he is needed (points, defense, rebounding) when one of the others struggles. The rotation runs out to 8 men, so expect the Coreys, Fisher and Stokes to see time in the back court (Fish) and wing (Stokes), with Antonio Pena pulling some time in relief (or alongside of) Cunningham in the paint. Pena had 13 very effective minutes in the Notre Dame game, it would be terrific to see him have another productive outing before the Big East Tournament/NCAA...
By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
With an adjusted tempo of 73.1, Providence is among the "fastest" D1 teams (ranked #12 -- the D1 average is still 66.7). The pace may suit the 'Cats just fine, as they have run off a series of uptempo wins in February (defense does seem to suffer...). Expect the pace for this game to go well into the 70s. The Friars have managed to maintain their offensive and defensive efficiencies throughout February (as the chart below shows), a very difficult accomplishment in the heart of the Big East season.
Comparing the elements that most influence Providence's rating with Villanova's defensive factors...
| When Providence has the ball... | ||||
| FTA | ||||
| eFG% | TO% | OR% | FGA | |
| Friar O | 51.0 | 19.0 | 36.5 | 39.1 |
| Wildcat D | 47.1 | 22.0 | 30.8 | 36.7 |
The Friars are more efficient at converting 2FGAs (52.5, #37 by Ken Pomeroy) than 3FGAs (32.2%, #256, also per Pomeroy), a bit paradoxical given Providence is among those D1 teams that are more inclined to shoot 3s (34.8% of their FGAs are 3FGAs, ranking them #115 among D1 schools). The Wildcats, committed to limiting conversions inside the arc, are currently holding opponents to a 45.3% 2FGA conversion rate. Their "shut down the inside" bias sets up an inside struggle with the Friars. Who will shoot tonight? In descendng order, expect shots from Brooks (26.7), Xavier (23.9), Efejuku (23.5) and Hanke (21.7). From beyond the arc, look for Jeff Xavier (-47.5), Brian McKenzie (33.6) or Marshon Brooks (-17.9) as those three are the most "outside" scorers on the squad, according to Kenvin Pelton's inside/outside formula (each player's score is listed in parenthesis). Efejuke, who came to Friar Town with the reputation as a mad bomber, has developed a bias towards inside scoring (18.5). Expect him to take a lot of shots (he is on the court a good deal), but will take the ball to the cup if the lane is open. Hanke is an extremely efficient scorer -- his eFG% is a Roy Hibbert-like 65.6 (remember, he takes no 3s).
The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus Providence's defense:
| When Villanova has the ball... | ||||
| FTA | ||||
| eFG% | TO% | OR% | FGA | |
| Wildcat O | 51.7 | 18.8 | 36.1 | 43.4 |
| Friar D | 50.2 | 20.2 | 36.2 | 29.3 |
The eFG% contrast suggests the 'Cats should have a good night from the field. And if they miss, they should have a few 2nd chance opportunities. The Friar's (unlike the Irish) force turnovers, don't expect another 5 turnover night. What they don't do is foul. The margin of expected victory is >10 however, so FTMs may not play a big role tonight. But if the score is closer (a 1-2 possession game), those foul-induced points may not be available...
Want to Beat the Friars? Then...
Shooting dominates as a critical factor for both squads. But for Villanova, effectively limiting opponent's second chance points is becoming an important key as well. Both teams appear to have difficulty winning when the pace rises to 71 or higher.
1. Defend their shooting -- When the Friar's eFG% was 50.0 or lower they were 5-7. When they were held to 44.7 or less they went 4-7.
2. Hit your shots -- Villanova's eFG% has been 52.0 or better (Georgetown aside) in the last week or so of February. When the conversion rate has been that high, Providence's record is 3-8. Nova's record when they have converted at 49.0 or better is 11-0.
3. Limit Turnovers -- The Friars are 5-5 when their opponents have a turnover rate of 18.8 or less. The 'Cats are 13-1 when they turn the ball over at that rate or lower.
Finally...
...Carrots & sticks -- there are rewards and penalties for both teams tonight. Given the lateness of the hour, each is a good deal more tangible right now. Losing puts the Wildcats back to #5 seed and cheering for Paul Harris and the Orange (not something I want to do the last weekend of the regular season...). The 'Cats are looking at a #3/#4 seed in the Dance, a loss probably strengthens the argument for a #4 rather than a #3. The Friars want a Dance bid; the last chance for the McDermott, Kale, Efejuku (and with his redshirt year...) Hanke class. That group entered with so much promise four years ago, but aside from an NIT bid in their sophomore year, no life after the BET. These guys are very close this year.
Per Ken Pomeroy's Villanova Team Page, this game should go for about 74 possessions (both team's comfort zone), with Nova taking a 14 point win. Pomeroy's degree of certainty (87%) is well within a comfort range (near certainty?). Coupled with the margin of victory, this suggests the game should not be especially close -- not a 1 - 2 possession game. But of course that was also projected for the Georgetown game last weekend...
No comments:
Post a Comment