Showing posts with label Isaiah Armwood. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Isaiah Armwood. Show all posts

Friday, September 30, 2011

Roster Moves --- Eve of Fall Practice


Soft Rosters & Pickup Games
Classes are back in session, the fall semester has started (or the fall quarter for some schools), and the schedules, much like the rosters, are the subject of press releases. During the summer a summer league (or pick up game) injury might not be reported for days, even weeks. The same holds for unreported Spring and Summer Semester grades and their resulting cumulative GPAs. With classes back in session the programs have to reveal who will actually be available come Fall Practice. There are still a few freshmen who have not been cleared by the NCAA, but now we are learning exactly who they are.

Cincinnati -- Shaq Thomas has been officially cleared to enroll by the NCAA. Cincinnati is on a quarterly system, fall classes to begin shortly, and Thomas is expected to enroll and attend. Though his relatives were vague as to whether the clearance included playing basketball, the Bearcats have listed him on their 2011-12 roster.

Connecticut -- Slapped with sanctions, the Huskies responded by winning the National Championship. Star guard Kemba Walker tossed his name into the NBA draft and Connecticut Head Coach Jim Calhoun, given his age and health, took a long summer to think about his future as mentor of the Huskies' program. Bouyed by the news that Athletic Director Jeff Hathaway (slated to chair the NCAA Selection Committee for the 2012 tournament) had been persuaded to retire, the veteran coach (25 years in Storrs) decided to return for 2012. Within days of Hathaway's announcement Calhoun secured the commitment of Top 10 center Andre Drummond, and to make a spot on the UConn roster (remember those NCAA sanctions?), persuaded Michael Bradley to relinquish his scholarship, in favor of Drummond. Bradley will secure financial aid to cover his tuition costs.

Georgetown -- The Hoyas' front court took a hit when sophomore Moses Ayegba tore his ACL in a Kenner League game last summer (credit under supervised play for another injury). Freshman Tyler Adams sprained his ankle late in the summer, and his availability is uncertain.

Louisville -- The latest word is that recruit Kevin Ware was declared ineligible earlier this month. Ware, a well regarded and well traveled combo guard had signed an NLI with Tennessee, but asked for his release when Coach Bruce Pearl was fired in March. Ware then "signed" with Central Florida, but the NCAA disallowed that NLI, as they ruled that a recruit could not sign two NLIs in a single year. Ware then chose an already packed Louisville program, forcing the staff revisit their planned scholarship allocation for 2011-12. In the end high returning scorer Kyle Kuric, a senior off guard, was one of three players former scholarship players who were reclassified as "walk ons". Officials have announced that Ware will begin classes in December and should be eligible to play in the Spring Semester. While the scholarship shuffle appears unseemly (see Connecticut above), the Cardinals have a history of having preseason and early season injuries put a serious strain on their player rotation. For Coach Pitino caution rather than avarice may have been the principle motivator.

Marquette -- The Warriors only unanticipated losses over the summer were transfers. Erik Williams left for Sam Houston State, while Reggie Smith will lace them up for UNLV...after sitting a year. Coach Buzz Williams has the squad restocked, and fans are looking forward to seeing what Jamil Wilson can do.

Notre Dame -- incoming freshman forward Eric Katenda was blinded in a pickup game in early July. An examination by doctors determined the optic nerve located behind Katenda's left was severed as a result of contact with another player while Katenda was rebounding a missed field goal attempt. Notre Dame head coach Mike Brey indicated that while the team doctors will explore the possibility of Katenda's playing with protective goggles, the Irish will honor his scholarship irrespective of the outcome -- Katenda by the way, insists he will bounce back from this injury. The Irish join a growing number of squads who have 10 (or fewer) scholarship players available in 2012. The front court rotation right now looks like Tim Abromaitis and Jack Cooley to start (with Scott Martin in a swing spot), leaving Joey Brooks, Jack Broghammer and Tom Knight as the bench. While lack of depth is the more obvious problem, the drop off in talent/production from the starters to the bench, has to be cause for concern as well.

South Florida -- As mentioned in a post last week, JUCO center Andre Jackson from Lee College (TX), signed to some fanfare last fall, is not on Coach Stan Heath's roster. A 7-3 freshman, Jordan Omogbehin, does appear on the latest Bulls roster, signed about the same time as Jackson last fall. Coach Heath also added Martino Brock, a 6-5 junior wing, who transferred in from South Alabama. Brock will sit in 2012 per NCAA transfer rules. Jackson was not a game-changer, but second year JUCO, 6-6 guard Hugh Robertson may find himself playing a bit more on the wing and lane than expected.

St. John's -- After a relatively quiet summer, the Red Storm fall semester was rocked with the news that the NCAA had ruled three members of the (highly ranked) incoming class, Jakarr Sampson, Norvell Pelle and Amir Garrett would be ineligible to play in the fall of 2012. Early press releases from St. John's announced the three would remain on campus and work through the eligibility issues, but reports in the following weeks indicate that Sampson, who returned to Brewster Academy (NH) has reopened his recruitment, while Pelle has enrolled in the Phelps School in Malvern, PA (outside of Philadelphia). Pelle, a very highly regarded #5 has ties (former teammates) to the San Diego State program, and may wind up there next season.

Bobby Bancroft over at National Hoops Report summarized it succintly in his "Best Case/Worst Case post on September 23 -- the three miss the first nine games and have six days to practice/play before Big East Conference play starts (an increasingly unlikely "best case") or Coach Lavin goes into an 18 game conference schedule with a squad of eight scholarship players who return less than 5% of the Red Storm's playing time and scoring from 2011. The Red Storm's two JUCOs, God's Gift Achiuwa and Nurideen Lindsey, along with junior Malik Stith, are the only veteran players with significant post high school experience on the hardwood.

Villanova -- Incoming freshman guard Tyrone Johnson missed the Wildcats' European Tour due to fractured ankle sustained in a pickup game in June of 2011. Johnson had surgery prior to Villanova's departure and is reported to have traveled with the team in Europe. Freshman off guard Darrun Hilliard stepped into the back up role for point guard Maalik Wayns on the tour, and Johnson is on schedule for the start of Fall Practice. His boot is off and Johnson is mobile. Two days after the team returned from a six game tour in France and the Netherlands junior forward and team captain Isaiah Armwood announced he would transfer to another university. The 6-9 wing subsequently enrolled at George Washington of the A-10, and will play for the Colonials after sitting out the mandantory one season.

Expect Johnson to be cleared to practice by October 15. Armwood's departure is more problematic. The Nova Nation will no doubt debate "what was" and "what could have been...", but lack of front court depth is the challenge facing Coach Wright this season. A 9/30 tweet from Coach Wright reports that junior walk-on Dallas Ouano will have surgery for a reported knee injury. No more details at this point.

The Wildcat squad is thin, the loss of Armwood was unexpected, reducing the squad to 10 scholarship players and one healthy walk-on.

Thursday, August 18, 2011

Roster Moves -- Armwood to Transfer



After the European Tour
According to Jeff Goodman over at CBSSports.com, Villanova captain, rising junior Isaiah Armwood will leave the Villanova program to pursue basketball opportunities with another D1 program. "He’s the greatest kid in the world...He’s our hardest-working guy, our captain. We started him every game on our trip...I just want to see him achieve his goals,” Wright said in the post by Goodman.

“It’s more about basketball than the school or the campus right now. … I just want to be able to exploit everything I can do. I don’t want to be limited in any things I can do.” Armwood told The Baltimore Sun reporter Matt Bracken in an interview earlier today. Schools identified by Armwood as possible destinations included George Washington (Armwood knows Assistant Coach Pete Strickland), Iowa (Assistant Coach Andrew Francis was on the Villanova staff several years ago), Texas Tech (Associate Head Coach Chris Walker was at Villanova last year), Maryland (a school Armwood grew up following) and Virginia (they contacted him earlier today).

Best of luck Isaiah!

Monday, August 15, 2011

Europe 2011 -- Villanova Closes Euro Jam With Loss



Villanova 54 87 Georgia
The Wildcats dropped their second game in the 2011 Euro Jam yesterday with their 33 point loss to the Georgia Senior National Team. Following the action on NovaAthletics-provided Twitter capsules, it seemed the 'Cats were in trouble early this time, unlike their first two Euro Jam games. Down by seven at the end of the first quarter, the Villanova squad souldered on without Isaiah Armwood, benched quikcly in the first quarter with two fouls, held that scoring gap to 7-to-8 points, when foul trouble benched starting point guard Maalik Wayns and low post mainstay Mouphtaou Yarou. With about a minute left in the half rising junior wing Dom Cheek found himself on the floor with four freshmen. It was quite an education. Team Georgia used the advantage to stretch the gap to 16 with an 8-0 run to close out the half. The Wildcats were bothered again by a press in the back court and a 2-3 zone when they crossed the mid-court stripe. Down by 16 at the half, the Wildcats conceded another 17 in the second half to finish the game on the short end of a 33 point gap. Scoring by the quarter...

1st2nd3rd4thGm
Georgia2818251687
Villanova21915954

Rising junior Dominic Cheek paced the 'Cats in scoring for the second time in three games. Cheek scored 14 points on 5-13 (2-4, 3-9) shooting from the field and 2-4 from the line. Mouphtaou Yarou and Maalik Wayns chipped in nine points apiece, with the freshmen Jayvaughn Pinkston and Achraf Yacoubou following with eight and seven points respectively. shared team scoring honors with 15 points apiece. Yarou also led the 'Cats on the boards, grabbing 12 boards (3-9-12), missing a double-double by a single point. The twitter account inidcated he was very active until sidelined with his second foul about midway through the second quarter.

The possession-based stats provide a hint at where the 'Cats were uncompetitive...

FTA
PaceEff.eFG%OR%TO%FGAPPWS
Georgia76.41.1060.020.515.243.31.20
Villanova0.6929.722.216.546.90.69

Scoring may be the nagging issue for Villanova this season. The pace, 76.4, is "exhibition-high", but consistent for a professional team. Team Georgia had several professional players, of whom Zaza Pachulia, an Atlanta Hawk last season, is (to American fans...) the most recognizable. Shooting at a 29.7% eFG% rate not only accounts for the loss, but also the scoring margin (compare to Georgia's 60.0%). The Wildcats had their chances at the line (note their FTA/FGA -- 46.9%), but did not exploit, going 16-30 from the line.

Further Reading
Look for Mike Sheridan's recap at Villanova's Athletic Department official website.
Another recap at VUHoops.com

Thursday, August 11, 2011

Europe 2011-02 -- Villanova Drops Second Game to Senegal, 79-65

Be Careful What You Wish For
On the short end of a 69-64 score versus a more mature and physical national team, many in the 'Nova Nation savored the possibilities of a rematch with the Senegal National Team on Wednesday in Cergy, France. Apparently the rematch is something the Senegalese wanted too, as Team Senegal improved on their first game result and defeated the Villanova Wildcats by an even more decisive 79-65. The teams played to a 25-22 score (advantage Senegal) in the first period, reason for hope to the Nova Nation, because the gap (three points) was closer than the first game (five points). Foul trouble may have blunted Villanova's scoring and defense in the second period as rising juniors Dominic Cheek and Mouphtaou Yarou were forced to sit as Team Senegal torched Villanova 19-11 in the second period to open an 11 point gap, 44-33, going into the intermission. Maalik Wayns paced the Wildcats with 15 points complements of a volume-shooting 6-19 effort that featured three three-point conversions. The Villanova squad did manage a bit better from beyond the arc, hitting eight three pointers. Another partial box score for Villanova...

PtsReb
Maalik Wayns159
Dominic Cheek7?
Mouphtaou Yarou911
Darrun Hilliard9?
Achraf Yacoubou54
Markus Kennedy?7
Isaiah Armwood57
Jayvaughn Pinkston7?
Total5738

Eight points and 14 rebounds remained uncredited. Also missing is rising sophomore James Bell's line. Other tidbits...
1. Villanova outrebounded Senegal 52 to 48. 38 Villanova rebounds (see above) are accounted for, the others most likely belong to some combination of Hilliard, Bell, Pinkston and Cheek (and anyone else who logged minutes).
2. The 'Cats converted eight of their attempts from beyond the arc. Wayns and Hilliard accounted for three apiece, while Cheek and Armwood (one apiece) completed the count.
3. Coach Wright alluded to another physical, foul-filled contest..."That was as unique as an experience as you can have in this game. It was like being in a street fight in someone else's neighborhood..."
4. Down 33-44 at the half, the 'Cats conceded another three points to the Senegalese, 35-32, over the course of the second half (periods three and four), accounting for the final margin of 14 points.

Next
The Wildcats move on to Almere, Netherlands where they will open in the Euro Jam 2011 against #26 (FIBA-ranked) Israel on Wednesday.

Further Reading
So far I have only found two sources (message boards aside)...
The official recap can be found at the Villanova website.
Joe Juliani from the Inky penned recap at philly.com...
......and a post for his blog.

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Europe 2011 -- Villanova Loses to Senegal 69-64


The Villanova Wildcats opened their summer playing tour in Europe with a loss to the #36 ranked (FIBA) Senegal National Team, 69-64 in a game played in suburban Paris tonight. Leading by one to open the fourth period (the Wildcats are playing by FIBA rules during their tour) 50-49, the 'Cats could not hold on through the last 10 minutes. The Senegalese staged a 20-14 comeback (they led by five, 23-18 at the end of the 1st period, and by one, 35-34 at the end of the 1st half) in the 4th period to seal the Wildcats' fate. Rising junior Dominic Cheek paced the 'Cats with 17 points on 7-12 (3-6, 4-6) shooting from the field. Classmates Mouphtaou Yarou logged a double-double with 15 points and 16 rebounds and Maalik Wayns scored 16 points. A very incomplete box score for Villanova...
PtsReb
Maalik Waynes166
Dominic Cheek17
Mouphtaou Yarou1516
Darrun Hilliard3?
James Bell65
Achraf Yacoubou4+?
Markus Kennedy?5
Isaiah Armwood?8
Jayvaughn Pinkston?4

With the two teams combining for 66 total free throw attempts (Senegal was 26-40, the 'Cats 14-26), Coach Wright's assessment, "It was very physical. It felt like we were in a Big East game." was on the mark. Other tidbits...
1. Villanova out rebounded Senegal 51 to 44. 44 rebounds (see above) are accounted for, the others most likely belong to some combination of Hilliard, Yacoubou and Cheek (and anyone else who logged minutes).
2. The 'Cats shot 3-16 from beyond the arc. Cheek was the only Villanovan to connect.
3. Scoring by period...

1st2nd3rd4thGm
Villanova1816161464
Senegal2312142069

Next
Senegal again. The team will take a rematch with he Senegalese. Hopefully a rested and refocused Wildcat squad can register a better result.

Further Reading
So far I have only found two sources (message boards aside)...
The official recap can be found at the Villanova website.
Joe Juliani from the Inky penned recap at philly.com

Monday, July 18, 2011

Europe '11 -- Villanova to Participate in Eruo Jam 2011



As part of the Villanova Men's team tour of Europe in August, the team will participate in a six team (four men, two women) sortof round robin tournament from August 12 to August 14 in Almere, Netherlands. The tournament, billed as Elite Europe vs USA Basketball will offer eight games in three days, pitting teams from Isreal, Netherlands and Georgia (the Republic of...) against the Wildcats in round robin play. The Boston College women's team will play two games versus the Netherlands Women's team, on August 13 and 14. Villanova's schedule:

DateGame Time (local)Villanova vs...
August 126:00pmIsreal
August 138:00pmNetherlands
August 143:00pmGeorgia

All games to be played in the Topsportcentrum in Almere. Rosters for Isreal and Georgia are posted. Link by clicking on the name in the "Villanova vs..." column. Game times posted are local time GMT -1.

Villanova's posted roster, from the Euro Jam 2011 site, includes a few surprises (I assume they are not accurate):

PlayerPositionComment
I. ArmwoodForwardNamed team captain for 2012
James BellGuard/WingU19 Men's Team starter
Dom CheekGuard/WingJunior, time?
Corey FisherPoint GuardGraduated
T. JohnsonGuardFreshman
M. KennedyForward/CenterFreshman
Dallas OuanoGuardBackup
J. PinkstonForwardSuspended 2011
M. SuttonForward/Centera junior in 2012
Maalik WaynsPoint Guarda Junior
R.WootenForwardGraduated
A. YacoubouGuard/WingFreshman
M. YarouCentera junior

Corey Fisher and Russell Wooten stand out because they have already graduated (Wooten in 2010, he took graduate course this past year). I suspect that neither will be in the Netherlands playing with the team come August 12. The Wildcats list four freshmen, Tyrone Johnson, Marcus Kennedy, Jayvaughn Pinkston and Achraf Yacoubou are freshmen. NCAA rules indicate that Villanova much have classes running (ie class meetings) for the four to be eligible to play.

This linked page contains videos of several Villanova players.

Sunday, June 5, 2011

Villanova's Returning Players Using Value Add (and Sub)

The Value Add System
Cracked Sidewalks poster bamamarquettefan1 introduced his Offensive Impact stat back on May 1 with a list of the 100 best offensive players in the Big East as a preparation for a more comprehensive offensive stat (Value Add) which he explained in his May 10 post over at Cracked Sidewalks. Offensive Value Add and Defensive Value Sub (explained in his May 17 post also at Cracked Sidewalks) is the latest in a long time movement that uses a single (all encompassing) expression to develop "a number" which describes every player's value to his team, and by inference, a metric that can be used to compare players of different teams. Unlike John Hollinger's PER system, this one is not a straight-line formula. Like the Plus/Minus system, Value Add (Value Sub) defines an individual's value relative to the team on which he plays. Rather than track time on the court to produce an estimate of the points produced and allowed, Value Add (Value Sub) uses possession-based stats developed by Ken Pomeroy and after calculating the offensive impact the player had, calculates that impact versus a hypothetical replacement player. After building the model for an offensive value, bamamarquettefan1 then introcuded an expression to determine the defensive value of each Division 1 player. Like Oliver and others however, bamamarquettefan1 is, after accounting for individual "defensive" stats (blocked shots, steals, defensive rebounds...) is reduced to allocating the balance of the defensive credit (stops/missed field goals, etc.) according to time played (Min% per Ken Pomeroy).

Villanova's Returning Players
After an email exchange, bamamarquettefan1 was gracious enough to share his spreadsheet with me, and I am very happy to credit Cracked Sidewalks and bamamarquettefan1 for the material. Villanova's six returning players...

 ------Value------National
ORtgDRtgOff AddDef SubTotalRank
Mouphtaou Yarou107.097.21.93%-0.96%2.89%222
Maalik Wayns103.899.12.67%0.00%2.67%252
Dominic Cheek100.698.00.75%-0.40%1.15%654
Maurice Sutton97.696.70.19%-0.46%0.65%944
James Bell114.398.60.54%-0.03%0.57%1009
Isaiah Armwood95.498.10.16%-0.29%0.46%1091

Observations (about Villanova's returning roster)
1. Identifying Mouphtaou Yarou and Maalik Waynes as the two best returning players was not surprising, but the order is...a little. I think most fans would agree with the order -- as a longer term projection (but not last season). If accurate, then thoughts of a post junior season exit for Yarou might be in order.
2. Given that James Bell was injured for the first five games of the season and was used sparingly for the next four (and irregularly after that), his ranking has to encourage optimism for his sophomore season.
3. Is Dom Cheek the victim of relative expectations? The rising junior was certainly not the only sophomore who disappointed last season, but his struggles as the team faded in February seemed more obvious than the other sophomores. I would love to see him have a breakout season as a junior.
4. Clearly for both Maurice Sutton and Isaiah Armwood, the contribution is on defense, not offense. The statistics confirm what the eyes have told us.

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Seton Hall Post Game: Value the Ball


?#!?#%!! Not Again...
For the third consecutive game the outcome came down to the last shot. And twice in those three games the ball was in the hands of the opponent. The nightmare scenario was unfolding as Jeremy Hazell, Seton Hall's latest 2,000 point scorer had the ball with 0:11 on the clock and 25 points already banked from this game. Hazell-led teams had never beaten the Wildcats, and this was the best chance in his four seasons. Hazell, who had 2,005 points entering the game, will probably almost certainly pass Greg Tynes (1974-78) to become the #3 scorer in Pirate history. But his total stopped at 25 tonight as his last three point attempt careened off the rim and into Dominic Cheek's eager grasp. 60-57 Villanova in a game that was among the strangest of this already strange season. The two teams played the 100th game in a shared tradition that goes back to 1921. Villanova may hold a 63-37 edge, but three of the last four meetings have come down to the last possession.

The Athletic Department website posted the official boxscore and the AP wire story, "No. 15 Villanova Beats Seton Hall, 60-57", lead with freshman James Bell's outstanding shot accuracy, Villanova's appalling turnover spree and the series' century mark. The breakdown by halves...

Opponent:Seton Hall University
 1st2ndGame 
Pace30.432.763.1
 Offense Defense
1st2ndGame 1st2ndGame
Rating92.198.095.292.188.890.4
eFG%54.358.356.137.135.236.2
TORate36.233.734.96.615.311.1
OR%45.527.336.425.030.027.5
FTA/FGA13.077.841.516.151.932.8
FTM/FGA13.061.134.116.137.025.9
ARate63.666.765.050.055.652.6
Blk%6.50.04.93.27.45.2
Stl%16.56.314.33.36.14.8
PPWS1.151.301.220.840.860.85
2FG%47.154.550.041.253.346.9
3FG%50.042.946.221.48.315.4
FT%100.078.682.4100.071.478.9
%2FG57.137.546.750.055.252.6
%3FG32.128.130.032.110.321.1
%FT10.734.423.317.934.526.3

Keys to Winning
If your eFG% 56.1% you should win, right? If your opponent's eFG% is 36.1%, you should win by double digits. If you snag 36.4% of your misses while you limit your opponent to 27.5% of his misses you should be looking at a +15 margin of victory. The three point winning margin can be attributed nearly exclusively to a 34.9% turnover rate. Over 1 in 3 Villanova possessions ended in a turnover. Seton Hall turned the ball over on just over 1 in 10 of their possessions. And despite their inability to consistently convert field goal attempts and their inability to rebound effectively against the Wildcats, this game hung on a Jeremy Hazell three point attempt with 0:0.6 seconds left. The Pirates had 17 more field goal attempts (58 to 41) than the Wildcats (twice as many three point attempts 26-13) even though Nova limited the Hall's second chance opportunities.

"It was another ugly game...Pitt was an ugly game...and this one was too" Coach Wright's voice trailed off at the end of his thought. There was a lot to like from the game, but the turnover rate virtually negated strong defensive rebounding numbers (the Hall is ranked #13 in the conference for offensive rebounding rate at 30.7%; Villanova held them to 3% less), strong shot efficiency and excellent shot defense and took the game to the last possession and shot. "Too many three point attempts" were Coach Willard's last words in his unusually brief and subdued post game presser. "What else can he say?" shrugged a writer near me "...at this point in the season he has covered everything..."

Ineffectual Mutterings...
The Wildcats' tempo continues to decline as Nova faced another 2-3 zone defense. For the fourth consecutive game Villanova has played for fewer than the conference average of 65.4 possessions. For this game the 'Cats came in at 63.1 possessions, below their own conference average of 65.5 possessions. The teams were on track for a 60 possession game going into the half, but consistent with previous games, the pace increased in the second half.

With 0:39 on the clock and four fouls apiece on Corey Fisher and Maalik Wayns, the staff went to a "rebound & defense/penetrate & free throw shooter" rotation, subbing Fisher and Wayns out for Maurice Sutton and Isaiah Armwood. Dominic Cheek played the point on five man team that consisted of Pena, Cheek, Sutton, Armwood and freshman James Bell. The freshman, who scored a career-high 21 points on an extraordinarily efficient 7-9 (4-6, 3-3) and 3-3 from the line, paced the Wildcats for the first time in his career. Bell's eFG% was 100% with a PPWS of 2.04. "We stopped Fisher and Wayns, but everyone on that team can score..." replied Coach Willard to a question about Bell's performance.

Bell, born in Plainfield (NJ), grew up in Florida. A few reports speculated on how a Plainfield High School team with a back court of (Villanova-bound) Ty Johnson, (red shirting this season in Pittsburgh) Isaiah Epps and Bell might have fared in NJHSAA play..."He was a sophomore (in high school)...(and) approached us and said 'I want to play for you'..." Coach Wright described how Villanova's recruitment of Bell opened. "We said 'ok, but we have to see you play before we decide (whether to offer a scholarhip)..." "Coach! So what happened?" "We saw him play the next day and offered..."

Ray Floriani, at the game, will add a post later.

Records, Next Up...
Villanova's records stand at 20-6 overall and 8-5 in conference play. The Wildcats have run their string of consecutive 20 (or more) win season to seven, going back to 2004-05. The Pirates records stand at 11-15 and 5-9 in conference play. Seton Hall hits the road for a swing through the Midwest, taking in Marquette next Saturday, and Notre Dame the Saturday following (2/26). Villanova heads West too, out to Chicago to play DePaul on Saturday, then back to Philadelphia to close out the season series with Syracuse on President's Day.

Roster Notes
Corey Stokes did not play, and should per Coach Wright's comments post game, be inactive for two weeks. The objective of the rest is to have him healthy and 100% for the balance of the his playing career at Villanova...most likely the last few games of the season. When the "two week" clock started however, was somewhat ambiguous. When asked if Stokes would be available for the Syracuse game (2/21), Coach Wright replied "...that would be the earliest...". The certainty -- Stokes will not play at DePaul Saturday.

Sunday, February 13, 2011

Pittsburgh #01 Post Game: GameDay


Philadelphia BBallers
"Best GameDay ever" seemed to be the consensus from ESPN's announcing crews. Indeed Villanova put on a great series of events which consumed the better part of the day leading up to the 9:00 pm game. Was the host exhausted from the hosting responsibilities by game time? Or are those older alums and FOPs who sit in the lower stands are as quiet as many (especially students and younger alums consigned to the upper stands) whisper they are? The fans packing the Pavilion seemed subdued, even as the Wildcats took control of the game early. The game was competitive through the first 25 minutes. Villanova took a four point lead (27-23) into the half, and continued to nurse a three point lead through the first 3-4 minutes of the second half, but hard fouls on sophomore center Mouphtaou Yarou brought hard words exchanged between Yarou and Pitt forward Nasir Robinson. As sophomore forward Isaiah Armwood stepped in to lead Yarou away from the potential confrontation he threw his arm (closed hand) around Yarou in an exaggerated motion that caught Robinson square in the face. Armwood did not look at Robinson either before or as he led Mouph away, and without instant replay one would be hard pressed to know whether the gesture was accidental or deliberate. The technical on Armwood negated an opportunity for Villanova to build on their lead at the line while hanging another foul on the Panthers. Pitt managed to erase Villanova's lead and was flirting with a 10 point edge when Corey Fisher grabbed a Gilbert Brown missed three point attempt and started a one man fast break. Brad Wanamaker wrapped himself around Fisher as the Villanova guard raced into the lane, effectively killing the break and forcing the senior to go to the line to get the points. More words were exchanged, this time between Robinson and Fisher. Double technical. Fisher's fourth. And what could have been two shots and the ball became a wash. Distracted, with two of their three senior leaders on the bench and the third hobbled with a rolled ankle, the Wildcats muddled around another four minutes before mustering a final rush in the game's last 3+ minutes. A refocused Villanova squad pressed and ran for those last possessions and managed to narrow the losing margin to three.

The Athletic Department website posted the official boxscore and the AP wire story, "No. 9 Wildcats Fall to No. 4 Pitt, 57-54" (yes, that really was the score, not a typo). The breakdown by halves...

Opponent:University of Pittsburgh
 1st2ndGame 
Pace30.629.359.9
 Offense Defense
1st2ndGame 1st2ndGame
Rating88.392.190.275.3116.095.2
eFG%40.437.539.032.152.840.2
TORate16.423.920.019.613.616.7
OR%26.752.940.635.016.728.1
FTA/FGA26.954.240.028.6122.265.2
FTM/FGA23.137.530.017.983.343.5
ARate30.037.533.344.444.444.4
Blk%7.74.26.014.311.113.0
Stl%9.914.212.09.76.68.2
PPWS0.920.890.910.721.200.95
2FG%45.040.042.939.161.547.2
3FG%16.722.220.00.020.010.0
FT%85.769.275.062.568.266.7
%2FG66.744.455.678.347.159.6
%3FG11.122.216.70.08.85.3
%FT22.233.327.821.744.135.1

"The Pittsburgh game may make paint drying seem like a speed sport." -- a quote from my West Virginia post game analysis, but the teams in this game actually had 16.7% more possessions. The game was dominated by defense, with Villanova's collapse on the inside in the second half the difference. Lacking a steady "senior" hand from minutes 32-36 was crucial to the stalled comeback.

Those Eight Minutes...
Armwood's technical was called at the 16:22 mark of the second half. The immediate fallout was Gilbert Brown's two made free throws, which, offset by Yaour's two made free throws, maintained Villanova's three point advantage. Brown missed a three point attempt just as the first four minute segment of the second half closed, but that was misleading, as the next eight minutes saw Pitt outscore Nova by a 17-4 margin. Looking at the possession-based numbers, those eight minutes were indeed ugly...

ShootingTurnovrAst.Poss.
FGMFGAeFG%FTMFTANo.Pct.No.Pct.Pts.No.ppp
Pittsburgh6778.64700.0350.017111.55
Villanova21118.100440.000.04100.40

Scoring four points in 10 possessions might be the worst efficiency of the season. While the 'Cats dominated the boards during the period, limiting Pitt to several one shot trips, the combination of turnovers (four) and ice cold shooting negated strong offensive (57.1%) and defensive (100%) rebounding numbers through the eight minute segment. This was a physical game, with hard fouls given with the dual purpose of stopping a scoring play or grab a rebound and to intimidate the home team and take them out of their comfort zone. Surprisingly aggressive behavior which the referees seemed to ignore. Against the 'Cats it worked this time.

Records, Next Up...
Villanova's records stand at 19-6 overall and 7-5 in conference (wow, it really has been a bad week). The Wildcats lost ground to Pitt, Notre Dame & Louisville (they have a tie breaker advantage over Louisville). The Panthers solidify their hold on first place and a high NCAA seed, with a 23-2 record overall, 11-1 record in conference play. Villanova takes another mid-week run out to New Jersey to play Seton Hall, followed by a swing out to Chicago to play DePaul. Pittsburgh returns home to host South Florida in a mid-week game, then travels to New York for a game with St. John's on Saturday.

Sunday, February 6, 2011

West Virginia Post Game: Scoring Droughts


Shot Defense?
West Virginia was up 10-6 when guard Darryl "Truck" Bryant picked up his second foul at the 13:30 mark of the first half. The guard, having missed a three point attempt on West Virginia's previous possession went straight at the bucket with the idea of making it 12-6 West Virginia, ran over Corey Fisher and picked up the charge. Coach Bob Huggins sat him, and Villanova West Virginia, two minutes into a shooting drought that lasted seven more minutes, missed another 12 field goal attempts over their next 11 possessions while Villanova launched a 14-2 run to overtake the Mountaineers and build a six point lead with nearly six minutes left in the half. The Wildcats closed out the half with another 12-7 run, taking a 30-19 lead into the locker room. Villanova defense or West Virginia offense? "Look, they (Villanova) are a Top 20 team, maybe a Top 5 team" responded Coach Huggins "...but we have to make shots...Jones made some shots...Bryant made some shots...but we need others to make shots". And the Moutaineers had a second dry run through nearly eight minutes of the second half. Having nibbled two points off of Villanova's lead (47-40) and with just over 11 minutes left in the game, West Virgninia went 1-11 and 1-4 from the line over an eight minut stretch as Villanova blew the game open with a 17-3 run that made the score 64-43 with just over three minutes left.

The Villanova blogosphere has several post game contributions. VUHoops.com posted their usual recap with player/team grades. The Nova Blog also posted a recap that echoed Coach Wright's sentiments about Villanova's back court ("I would not trade them for anyone"). The Moutaineer blogosphere is quiet tonight, Smoking Musket Blog posted an open thread for the game, but no recap yet. The Athletic Department website posted the official boxscore and the AP wire story, "No. 12 Villanova Tops No. 25 West Virginia, 66-50". The breakdown by halves...

Opponent:West Virginia University
 1st2ndGame 
Pace25.625.350.9
 Offense Defense
1st2ndGame 1st2ndGame
Rating117.1142.3129.674.2122.598.2
eFG%48.180.062.030.053.642.5
TORate19.511.915.719.515.817.7
OR%53.333.345.835.045.040.0
FTA/FGA23.145.032.620.025.022.6
FTM/FGA19.220.019.616.03.69.4
ARate27.364.348.083.376.978.9
Blk%15.40.08.70.03.61.9
Stl%3.94.14.011.811.411.6
PPWS1.041.481.240.690.990.85
2FG%42.176.956.318.856.337.5
3FG%42.957.150.033.333.333.3
FT%83.344.460.080.014.341.7
%2FG53.355.654.531.658.148.0
%3FG30.033.331.847.438.742.0
%FT16.711.113.621.13.210.0

Green and red are used again here to highlight elements that were above or below season-long performance levels. While it seems the team stopped defending in the second half, remember each was dealing with half-time adjustments. Villanova may appear to have called off the dogs in the second half, but remember they had a nine point leading going into the intermission, and had an outstanding offensive half, which mitigated their own lapses. This game is more evidence that the "Shoot 'em up" game strategy is giving way to a more traditional motion offense promoted by Coach Wright when he first took the reins at Villanova. At 50/51 possessions, this is the lowest possession game played by Villanova this season. Recaps in the ink and electronic media may touch on West Virginia's lowest point total of the season, but consider the Mountaineers had 50/51 possessions with which to work. WVU produced an offensive efficiency similar to their outing against Duquesne and better then their (point per possession) yield versus Seton Hall, South Florida and Louisville -- they are 3-1 in the four games cited -- their failing was defense. They simply could not contain/control Corey Fisher, Maalik Wayns, Antonio Pena and Mouphtaou Yaour. Continuing with a theme raised in the past few post game pieces, this marks the sixth of the last seven games in which the team has played for fewer than projected (per Ken Pomeroy -- see "Schedule" section on the Team Page) possessions. The deviation, (-14 or a whopping 12% below projected) is far larger than previous differences. As mentioned in the Marquette post game analysis, when we couple more minutes for Mouphtaou Yarou & his pairing with Antonio Pena and the additional time for Isaiah Armwood, with a more deliberate pace and we are watching this team transition to a more deliberate, half-court friendly style of play. The Pittsburgh game may make paint drying seem like a speed sport.

Random Notes/Thoughts
1. The Wildcats used eight players, seven of whom received 10 or more minutes of playing time. The PT differential ranged from 36 (Antonio Pena -- not the first time the senior forward pulled down the most minutes) down to 19 (Dom Cheek who grabbed a team-high nine rebounds) was closer than the Marquette game. Four players Pena, Yarou, Stokes and Fisher logged 30 or more minutes, more evidence the staff is moving towards a "tournament/post season" mode of player rotation.

2. Maalik Wayns came off the bench for the second consecutive game. He was asked directly in the post game press conference about his feelings on the move, and the sophmore seemed to take the move in stride and look at the advantages. The Armwood-for-Wayns switch gives the starting five a very traditional, two guard, two forward and one center, look and feel.
3. Lost in the 16 point win is the lack of point production from the line. Gathering a total of nine points from free throws would normally set off alarm bells. The point distribution (see above -- 54.5%, 34.8% and 13.6% for two point, three point and free throw is dispropotionately high for threes and low for free throws. Consider however, that the Wildcats were 7-14 from beyond the arc, an unusually proficient 50%, even as they were 9-15 (60%) from the charity stripe. The total number of free throws was lower than average, but the 'Cats also missed many more chances than usual.

Records, Next Up...
Villanova's records stand at 19-4 overall and 7-3 in conference. The Wildcats lost no more ground to Pitt, and maintained pace with Notre Dame & Louisville (they have a tie breaker advantage over Louisville). West Virginia drops to 15-7 overall, 6-4 in conference play, and into a tie for seventh place with Connecticut. Villanova takes a mid-week run out to New Jersey to play Rutgers, before returning to campus to play Pittsburgh in an ESPN-driven GameDay at the Pavilion. West Virginia has a rendevouz of their own with Pitt, on one day's rest, at the Coliseum next Monday, then a second home date next Saturday with DePaul (2/13).

Friday, February 4, 2011

Preview -- West Virginia


Off Script...
#8 Villanova hosts West Virginia University Saturday at noon in a game that will decide who keeps pace with Pittsburgh (at the top of the Big East standings) and Notre Dame, currently the sole #2 in the conference. Both teams have taken circuitous routes to this place. The Wildcats thought they would go nine (at least) deep with their blue ribbon sophomore class progressing nicely, but pushed by their two freshmen recruits, James Bell and JayVaughn Pinkston. Bell, feared at one point to lose the season, has rehabbed and gets a few minutes each game. Pinkston, out on discipline issues, should rejoin the team next season. The Sophomore Progress Report is mixed, with the jury still out on several well regarded players. For West Virginia, the major action has been off the court. ...

Common Opponents...
...Conference opponents only for common foes, as the two teams run in different D1 "circles". Villanova fills a large part of it's OOC dance card with Philadelphia teams (the Big 5), while West Virginia has similar local rivals centered in the greater Pittsburgh metro area (Robert Morris, Duquesne). Of their conference opponents, good luck trying to decypher what has gone on before. +30 versus Providence? -15 on the road?! That both teams sport a 4-2 record against that common slate is strange indeed. The absence of a discernable treand confirms what those who have watched the games this season suspect -- the Big East, as has most of the power conferences this year, is having a chaotic, wide open race for most of the conference tournament seeds so far...

NovaWVU
OpponentW/LDiff.W/LDiff.
South FloridaW (A)+12W (H)+10
GeorgetownL (H)-3W (A)+6
ProvidenceL (A)-15W (H)+30
LouisvilleW (H)+14L (A)-1
CincinnatiW (H)+11W (A)+11
MarquetteW (H)+5L (A)-5

West Virginia's best OOC win was a three point victory over Vanderbilt (SEC, 15-6, 3-4, RPI #24), a win that looks better to the RPI than Ken Pomeroy. Pomeroy values the 'Eers win over Duquesne (A-10, 15-5, 8-0 #28 Kenpom) a bit more. Best conference wins include the 65-59 road win at Georgetown (17-5, 6-4, RPI #5) and at home versus Cincinnati (16-3, 3-3, RPI #35), a convincing 15 point win. Their single loss, a 12 point loss at Pittsburgh earlier this week, did little to diminish their tournament resume.

Villanova's marquee out of conference win is still the Temple University (A-10, 16-5, 6-2, RPI #35) game, a four point decision, in December. The Wildcats' best win overall was their 11 point road victory over Syracuse (17-4, 6-4, RPI #16) in conference play last month. Villanova's worst loss, a 15 point spanking at the hands of Providence (BE 14-9, 3-7, RPI #99) also last month. Other losses in conference play include a two point loss to UConn in Storrs and a three point home loss to Georgetown last weekend...

Lineups, Rotations...
...The team that takes the court Saturday is surely not the one envisioned by Coach Bob Huggins in the weeks before Fall Practice. David Nyarsuk and Noah Cottrill are no longer in the program, though Nyarsuk may be in Morgantown next season. Of the two Cottrill was more likely to have an impact this season, but, recently suspended (for the second time since last September) guard Casey Mitchell aside, Coach Huggins has a pool of seven players among whom he typically allocates starts and playing time. Should Mitchell's second indefinite suspension this season be lifted by game time, the senior 6-4, 220 pound guard will probably start alongside junior Darryl Bryant (6-2, 195 pounds), a back court pairing the WVU staff has used in nearly 17 of the Mountaineers' 22 games this season. Red shirt senior Joe Mazzulla (6-2, 200 pounds) will come off the bench to sub in at the point when either Bryant or Mitchell sits. Sophomore wing Dalton Pepper (6-5, 230 pounds) will see minutes, most likely more than 10, at various points in the game. The wing has seen his minutes decline slightly since the start of conference play, but this is a home-coming game of sorts for the Pennsbury graduate. Look for the staff to tab senior 6-7 215 pound forward John Flowers and 6-8, 260 pound junior forward Kevin Jones to start in two of the three forward spots. The fifth starter will go to the player with who best fits the game plan and has probably practiced/played well lately. Senior forward Cam Thoroughman, one more of a seemingly endless supply of 6-7 forwards (Coach Huggins loves 'tweeners) has gotten the nod lately, but the staff has also tabbed (the recently departed) Dan Jennings and (6-9, 270 pound) sophomore Deniz Klicli for starts in the last six games. The spot does not appear to be nailed down yet. If Coach Huggins goes deeper than eight, expect to see Jonnie West (fifth year senior) first.

Coach Wright juggled the lineup for the Wildcats' home game with Marquette. Adjusting the starting line-up he had used in Villanova's first 21 games, the Coach decided to continute starting the three seniors, Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes and Antonio Pena, but pair Fisher and Stokes in the back court even as he left Pena at the #4. Coach Wright tabbed the fourth "regular" starter, sophmore center Mouphtaou Yarou for the #5, but decided to start sophomore Isaiah Armwood at the #3 and bring sophomore point guard Maalik Wayns off the bench early. While the change up may well have been to confound Marquette specificially with a match-up problem, having two 6-0 guards side-by-side can be problematic on defense, espeically one that relies so heavily on man defense with switching principles. The bench was short for the Warriors, limited largely to Wayns and spot appearances by freshman James Bell, and sophomores Dom Cheek & Maurice Sutton. The Marquette game marked a departure in the usual Villanova rotation, those three typically see playing times range between 10 and 20 minutes.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
Expect a modest clash of pace, as Villanova looks for a possession or so more than the Division 1 average (67.5) while West Virginia typically plays for three or so possessions less than the D1 average. Pomeroy projections suggest the two teams will settle for something in between (about 65 possessions), but in five of Villanova's last six games the 'Cats have had fewer than the projected possessions. This one might yield a game barely in the 60s, which would spell trouble for Villanova, as it would suggest the 'Cats are getting few points in transition. A "Four Factors" comparison when West Virginia has the ball...

When the Mountaineers have the ball...
 FTA
eFG%TO%OR%FGA
'Eer O49.119.341.441.3
Wildcat D44.719.128.033.9


The Mountaineer offense is ranked #24 according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report, one of the near elites in Division 1. Coach Huggins' squad rebounds their misses among the very best in D1. Coach Huggins' offensive strategy is fairly straightforward, toss the ball at the basket and then rely on those athletic forwards to get the rebound and score on putback opportunities. They get to the line well, (41.3% of their FGAs, ranked #98 in D1), which suggests those rebounding battles can get physical. Perimeter defense has been a source of handwringing for the Nova Nation, but they will most likely not have to worry Saturday, West Virginia three point shooting falls in the bottom quarter of three point shooting, though frankly their two point attempt conversions are among the top third of Division 1. They are among the elites at covering the offensive boards, thereby giving themselves second chance opportunities. This mtachup is crucial for Villanova, as the Wildcats are among the elites for defensive rebounding. In two losses of their four losses, the Wildcats were unable to control the defensive boards, allowing their opponents to gather >35% of their misses. This should be a good benchmark for the Villanova front court and staff game planning. Holding West Virginia to the D1 average would be a huge boost, but that struggle beneath the boards could well test the Wildcats' depth at the forward spots. While West Virginia is good at getting to the line, they are an average team at converting those opportunities. Villanova has become particulary good at defending the shot, their eFG% defense is ranked #26 in D1. If Villanova starts Armwood but struggles to contain West Virginia's offensive rebounding in the first half, look for the type of half-time adjustment that might call for more bodies to crash the boards. That would however, diminish fast break opportunities. With poor three point shooting, Villanova's staff may feel that having both Wayns and Fisher together in the back court may be less risky than having both in against Marquette (a much stronger three point shooting squad). The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus West Virginia's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
 FTA
eFG%TO%OR%FGA
Wildcat O49.917.736.144.1
'Eer D44.020.235.634.8


The Eer's adjusted defense is 89.8, ranked #18, among the elites for Division 1. They are very strong shot defenders (excellent at defending the three and above average defending the two), but are only "above average" (ranked in the upper 1/3 of D1) at keeping their opponents off the line and merely average at forcing turnovers. The Mountaineers are not good defensive rebounders, a weakness which contrasts sharply with a Villanova offensive strength. Though the difference in rebounding rates is relatively small (about 0.5), it suggests Villanova should have a good day rebounding their misses. And that would be very good given the Mountaineers' outstanding shot defense. Another key indicator for West Virginia's defense however is fouling -- they don't. For Villanova, used to netting 25% or more of their points at the line may well have to find another source for posting points, assuming they cannot coax more fouls out of Coach Huggins' squad.

Want to Beat West Virginia? Then...
Shooting is always critical, make them miss and convert your own, but...
1. Couple their misses with poor(er) rebounding. West Virginia can survive a shooting day (eFG%) in the 40s if they rebound their misses strongly, but they cannot survive a shooting day in the 30s, irrespective of their rebounding. West Virginia is 1-2 when shooting in their eFG% is <40%. The only time they won (South Florida), their opponent shot even worse than they did. If the Moutaineers are shooting in the 40s, then limit their offensive boards to the Division 1 average (about 33%). In games where they shot in the 40s and rebounded in the 30s they went 1-1.
2. Convert your shots. Sounds easy, no? Make them miss and hit your own. Like their offense, combine shooting (eFG%) and offensive rebounding. In games where their opponents converted at 50% or higher (eFG%), WVU is 2-3. In games where opponents convert at 40% (but less than 50%) and rebound at Villanova's average or better, the 'Eers are 1-2.
3. Get to the line. In games where WVU's opponents have an FT Rate (FTA/FGA) of 36.8 or higher (Villanova's rate is 44.1), they have gone 3-5.

Finally...
...Villanova lost back-to-back games in the Wells Fargo Center as they staggered to the finish last season. The games, played two weeks apart (with a Pavilion game in between) were against Connecticut and West Virginia. Before that, the Wildcats lost to Notre Dame after they lost to Syracuse (with a trip to Pittsburgh in between). Pomeroy is calling this one for the 'Cats, 65 possessions and a four point winning margin, with a 66% degree of certainty.

Saturday, December 4, 2010

Saint Joseph's Post Game -- Holy War, 2010-11



Holy...Difference of Opinion?
The Hawks of Saint Joseph's held the lead over the Wildcats of Villanova for the first 4:30 of the game, relinquishing the lead briefly to regain it at the 13:53 mark. They would hold it for only 30 seconds more before releasing it for the last time. For the next 33 and half minutes the question was only by how much the Wildcats would win. The answer turned out to be 11, as Villanova won 71-60 and ran their Big 5 record to 2-0 for 2010-11. The Wildcats took a 10 point lead into the break, Mouphtaou Yarou missed a layup at the 0:01 mark that would have given the 'Cats an even dozen.

The second half saw the Wildcats push the lead out to 20 at the 6:38 mark and then go a stone-cold 1-6 from the field with three turnovers to let Saint Joseph's nibble away at the margin on 5-8 shooting.

Mike over at VUhoops.com did the honors with a brief recap. Chris at the Nova Blog ran an open thread, but truth be told even the VUSports Bench Warmers board did not draw many comments. Villanova Viewpoint Publisher has yet to recap, but he did post a detailed history of the series as a preview for tonight's game. Fact over at the Fact on Villanova blog had a completely different take on the series. It is valued only by the over 50 crowd (I confess I did not know the Villanova Viewpoint Publisher was that old...).

The official website posted the official boxscore and the AP wire story, which for the first time in memory offered a mild criticism of the effort with "...Villanova won despite another lousy shooting night and a lackadaisical performance down the stretch. It shot 39 percent, including 7 for 23 on 3s...". The breakdown by halves...

OpponentSaint Joseph's University 
 1st2ndGame 
Pace33.928.862.7
 Offense Defense
1st2ndGame1st2ndGame
Rating112.2114.6113.382.7111.195.7
eFG%44.443.143.846.648.447.5
TORate11.824.317.620.710.416.0
OR%39.161.950.022.240.031.6
FTA/FGA19.441.429.210.312.511.5
FTM/FGA16.727.621.53.43.13.3
ARate64.390.976.033.338.536.0
Blk%13.913.813.83.49.46.6
Stl%2.97.04.812.03.58.0
PPWS0.970.950.960.920.940.93
2FG%43.542.142.950.040.044.7
3FG%30.830.030.427.341.734.8
FT%85.766.773.733.325.028.6
%2FG52.648.550.764.350.056.7
%3FG31.627.329.632.146.940.0
%FT15.824.219.73.63.13.3

The "good" stats get some green highlighting while the "bad" ones get the red treatment. I will go over a few of the high and low points below, but the stat that caught my attention at the break and into the second half (I tracked possessions and Oliver's Four Factors for 10 minutes into the second half) was the pace. At just under 34 possessions for the half the two teams appeared on track (more or less) to get Pomeroy's projected 71 possessions for the game. The second half often yields a few more possessions than the first, especially if the team that is down is capable or pushing the pace. 28-29 possessions was well below the anticipated pace, but consistent with Villanova's very short bench (see Roster Moves at the end) and a strong desire to keep the regular rotation resh at the end of the game. The other stats that jumpted out after the game was the poor shot conversion rate (eFG%) relative to the offensive rating for the team (the Rating -- divide by 100 to compute the points per possession). The paradox is the comparision of those two numbers -- the 'Cats converted shots very poorly "...lousy shooting...", but the nevertheless very strong offensive rating. The heart of the system is shot conversion, so what gives? The next two most important stats, turnover rate and offensive rebounding, are very strong.

Notes & Observations
1. Low PPWSs for the Cats suggest the team was not converting shots nor getting to the line consistently. The low eFG% confirms the low conversion rate, and the lower than expected FTA/FGA in the first half confirms when the 'Cats did not convert from the field, the refs were not bailing them out.
2. The Wildcats had four squad members in double digits, with Corey Stokes leading the team with 19 points on 6-15 (3-9, 3-6) and 2-2 shooting. The senior guard also snagged eight rebounds and accounted for a steal, a block, a dime and an assist.
3. Senior forward Antonio Pena logged his eighth double-double as a Villanovan (and first this season), scoring 14 points on 7-9 (7-9, 0-0) and 0-1 shooting while gathering 14 rebounds (3-11-14) in 34 minutes of play.
4. The second half assist rate (percentage of made field goals came through an assist) was over 90%, extremely high and a radical departure from the days of the "take 'em" offense.

Roster Moves
Sophomore Maurice Sutton is walking with a boot on his right ankle. Official word is that it is sprained, but speculation is that it is fractured. Sophomore Isaiah Armwood was DNP due to back spasms, while freshmen JayVaughn Pinkston was DNQ again. Freshman James Bell warmed up, and followed his minute or two of action in the Tennessee game with 11 minutes of play, off the bench, against the Hawks. Pinkston is apparantly somewhere in an appeals process for his assault citations, though rumors persist that he is done for the year. The rotation tonight was seven players, with everyone of them receiving at least 10 minutes.

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Lafayette Post Game -- Remember Thou Art Mortal


A 45 Point Winning Margin...It Was Not That Close
About 13 minutes into the first half Lafayette turned the ball over on a shot clock violation. Maalik Wayns brought the ball up the court and after several passes around the perimeter between Wayns, Dominic Cheek and Corey Stokes, Villanova's sophomore point guard penetrated to just inside the foul line and kicked to an open Corey Stokes positioned at the three point line between the elbow and the top of the key. Stokes did not convert, clanging the shot off the front of the rim, where Armwood gathered the ball and fired it back outside to Cheek. Cheek attempted a pass to Armwood now straddling the foul line, but the pass was deflected and after a scramble and a few tips Wayns scooped it up and retreated to the perimeter to reset the offense. Cheek cut to the foul line, and presented himself to Wayns for a pass, but the point guard lofted the ball well above Cheek and the foul line area into Armwood set up in the low post. Armwood was slow to elevate, and a Lafayette player deflected the pass back towards the foul line, where Cheek deflected it again back to Armwood who, having returned to the low post, out jumped his Lafayette defender, brought the pass down, elevated and dropped the ball through the basket. The sequence took 1:10 off the clock and pushed the home team's lead up to 21. Possession after possession, the Wildcats beat the Leopards with speed, quickness and athleticism.

The Leopards managed to whittle their deficit down to 11 by the 2:31 mark, but the Wildcats took a 7-2 run that closed out the half, taking an 18 point edge, 38-20, into the locker room.

I guess your team has arrived when none of the five blogs created to cover the team, posts a story about the biggest blowout in three seasons (the Rider game, in December 2007 was a 47 point win, 108-61). Brian at VUhoops.com did note in his pregame post, that Layafette's long time head coach, Fran O'Hanlon, is a Villanova graduate (class of '70) and a backcourt legend. The most heated discussion in the comments section was whether Brian's characterization of the anticipated blowout was pc. Yup, the Wildcats are big-time.

The official website posted the official boxscore and the ever-accurate AP wire story. The breakdown by halves...

OpponentLafayette University 
 1st2ndGame 
Pace37.232.169.1
 Offense Defense
1st2ndGame1st2ndGame
Rating102.3149.6124.253.865.459.2
eFG%51.459.455.225.931.728.8
TORate18.812.515.929.612.521.7
OR%31.660.044.122.713.618.2
FTA/FGA5.734.419.417.26.711.9
FTM/FGA5.731.317.917.26.711.9
ARate56.372.264.785.762.573.3
Blk%5.70.03.010.310.010.2
Stl%5.49.37.218.76.313.0
PPWS1.061.291.180.640.680.66
2FG%57.161.559.633.338.535.5
3FG%28.633.330.09.117.614.3
FT%100.090.992.3100.0100.0100.0
%2FG63.266.765.160.047.653.7
%3FG31.612.520.915.042.929.3
%FT5.320.814.025.09.517.1

I usually highlight the good stats with green and the bad ones with red. Just assume if the stat above is not colored red that it is green. First half problems on the offensive boards, surprising given the absolute dominance of the Villanova front court, and the letdown on turnovers (Lafayette's, not Villanova's), netting only 12.5% turnover rate versus the Leopards and three point shot conversion were the problem areas tonight, though in a 45 point win it seems a stretch to complain. Ken Pomeroy may project a 14-15 record for Lafayette this season (very much at odds by the way, with the Blue Ribbon Yearbook prediction of a #1 finish for Coach Hanlon's Leopards in Patriot League play), but this game is simply off the charts good. By tradition a victorious Roman general would, after winning a war, would be honored with a procession -- a victory parade -- through the center of the Eternal City. The Senate (the governing body) would assign a young man to ride in the general's chariot and as the nearly million citizens cheered the victorious general (yes Rome of the ancient world had a population of nearly one million), to continuously whisper in his ear a reminder that he was merely a man. This was a great win, but on a night when the team could, apparently, do nothing wrong, it is good to remember there are tougher opponents and more hostile playing venues in the season ahead.

Notes & Observations
1. Consistent with a blowout, 10 players saw the court, with no player logging more minutes than senior point guard Corey Fisher (72.5% of the available minutes). The nucleus of the rotation, Stokes, Pena, Wayns, Cheek and Yarou (Fisher already noted...) logged between 50% and 65% of the time. Sophomore forward Isaiah Armwood also logged 65% of the available minutes as well.
2. Wayns (29.9), Stokes (29.9) and Fisher (22.6) were the principle options on offense, though Yarou (20.7) was a reliable 3rd option. Possessions showed an even larger gap between Wayns (39.8), Fisher (26.9), Stokes (28.4) and the rest of the squad. Stokes and Fisher used their possessions efficiently. Stokes, in scoring 19 points on 12 field goal attempts (a 1.47 PPWS) while handing out three dimes, turned in the kind of performance Villanova fans have waited three seasons to see. Can he do this night-in and night-out? Fisher scored 16 points on 11 field goal attempts, logging a 1.29 PPWS. Wayns had problems from the field, scoring 10 points on 12 field goal attempts.
3. Sophomore center Mouphtaou Yarou logged his first double-double as a Villanovan, scoring 12 points on 6-9 shooting while gathering 12 rebounds (6-6-12) in 26 minutes of play.

Roster Notes
Freshmen James Bell and JayVaughn Pinkston were DNP again. Bell warmed up, but did not see game action. He might be several weeks away from a medical clearance to resume play. Pinkston appeared before a University hearing board Friday to review/answer for the off campus incident that led to his suspension. The board decision may (or may not) come next week.