Random Thoughts After First Friday

As I Was Scanning the Scoreboard, Twitter, Messageboards, etc
A progessional obligation kept me away from the TV set (ie ESPN) as Division I resumed with a vengance Friday night. Though the season "started" with a dribble of games -- mostly campus site games for early season invitational tournaments -- Friday brought a whopping 131 games. I have not checked to see if all those games involved two D I opponents, we can guess that nearly 246 of Division I's 348 teams (69.5%) saw action. After streaming the Villanova-Monmouth game (a 106-70 rout) I started a wider search for comments/scores. Sifting through the scoring summaries and catching a few tweets, I found a handful of games that caught my eye...

What a Difference a Year Makes (part 1)
Big 5 fans followed the progress of Saint Joseph's freshmen class from a very uneven start in 2010-11 to a brief florish close the season. Western Kentucky, a Sun Belt Conference power over the years, thumped the Hawks 98-70 to open last season at the Hagan. This season the Hawks opened in Western Kentucky and returned the favor as they beat the Hilltoppers by 11, 72-61 in Bowling Green, KY. Guards Carl Jones and Langston Galloway did their thing (16 and 19 points respectively with three assists and five steals), but not seeing sophomore forward Ron Roberts in the starting lineup was a bit surprising (Hofstra transfer Halil Kanacevic got the nod and logged eight minutes before fouling out). Roberts did get a 31 minute run, recording his first double-double of the season -- 10 points and 11 rebounds. The really good news was C. J. Aiken's 35 minutes. The 6-9 center blocked five shots, scored 12 points, and drew only three fouls. Coach Martelli's charges will see Georgia Tech Thursday night in the Charleston Classic. This will be a reunion of sorts, as the Yellow Jackets are now coached by former Dayton head coach Brian Gregory. It should be a great opportunity for the Hawks to draw some national attention.

Oops, Wrong First Impressions...
An extremely enthusiastic tweet from Chris DiSano of College ChalkTalk about Rhode Island's freshman forward Jon Holton (and a follow up about senior guard Jamal Wilson's awesome 38 point outburst) sent me on a search for the Rhodi-George Mason boxscore. The game went into overtime with the Runnin' Rams dropping a two point (90-92) decision on the road. My first check on possessions had the game (overtime included) at around 92 possessions. I was wrong (I'll blame the unofficial box score for that...yeah, that's the ticket, it was the unofficial box score...), the calculation from the official box score puts the possessions at 87...which means my first thought -- Rhode Island needs more offense -- was off base. The Runnin' Rams gave up 1.06 points per possession to the Patriots, and handed the CAA another win over the A-10 (a problem come Selection Sunday). Granted Coach Baron is going to have a reliable second and third option, Wilson is not going to shoot 13-22 (1-2, 12-20) to go with an 11-12 from the line every night, but he has options now in his front court with senior Orion Outerbridge and sophomore Nikola Malesevic if the two forwards can exercise better judgement on their three point attempts. Combined they hit 3-14 from beyond the arc (nine points on 14 attempts), while shooting a combined 4-8 inside (eight points on eight attempts). Wilson by the way, posted a 61.4% eFG with a 1.39 PPWS, both will be noted elsewhere when I file my first report. Holton will need to work on his shot (2-11 from the field, 7-10 from the line), but he will see minutes because he is a rebounding monster -- he snagged a stunning 34.7% of the available defensive rebounds when he was on the court. URI might be able to get a bit more offense when Auburn transfer Andre Malone and Virginia transfer Billy Baron become eligible late next month. For now Coach Baron may have to rely on freshman Mike Powell to handle the point guard duties. For Powell GMU was something of a baptism of fire as he shot an underwhelming 3-11 from the field while handing out six dimes (nearly negated by five turnovers).

Wow, What a Difference...(part 2)
Saint Louis fans suffered through a multitude of basketball-related problems in 2010-11. I wondered going into the season how the Billikens would react to the log jam in the back court and whether they would find an offense to go their their lock-down defense (the Billikens were ranked #47 by Ken Pomeroy last season). Majerus is not reputed to be an especially "user friendly" coach, so losing one or more of the freshmen back court players before the season started would not have been too surprising (sophomore Christian Salecich did transfer out during the summer). The Bills struggled against the Carleton Ravens on their Canadian Tour this summer, losing red shirt junior guard Kwamain Mitchell at the end of their fourth exhibition, not the best sign going into the fall semester. Friday night they demolished Tennessee State of the Ohio Valley Conference, 71-37 (yup, the defense is back) before 6,400+ fans at Chaifetz. My numbers (unadjusted) show a 61 possession game (typical of Majerus), which means the defense is in mid-season form -- they held Tennessee State to a measly 0.60 points per possession), but the offense is still a work in progress. Mitchell started and coupled a horrific 3-11 outing with 40% shot rate in his 27 minute (66.7% of the playing time) run. Mitchell will get better (or take a seat on the bench, Majerus is not the most patient coach) to be sure. Conklin, along with sophomores Mike McCall and Jordair Jett compensated with very efficient shooting nights (combined they went 10-15 from the field). Limiting a team to 37 points is impressive. Saint Louis is headed off to the 76 Classic later this month, with a matchup versus Villanova a distinct possibility.

Speaking of Defensive Showcases
Buzz Williams' Marquette squad shut down Mount St. Mary's Friday night too, handing the Mountaineers a 54 point loss (91-37) to open the season. The offensive/defensive display was impressive, as the two played for about 71 possessions, thereby scoring about 1.28 points per possession, while limiting Mount St. Mary's to 0.58 PPP. The starting five Jae Crowder, Chris Otule, Darius Johnson-Odom, Vander Blue and Junior Cadougan (note the three guards?) did a nice job of distributing shots and possessions, which reminded me a bit of the Syracuse team from 2010. Blue in particular struggled late last season, but had an efficient outing (a 62.5% eFG on 5-8 shooting from the field, which computes to a 1.25 PPWS). Cadougan struggled a bit with his shot (4-9, 44.4% eFG), but made his double-double the hard way, 10 points to go with 10 dimes in 24 minutes of play.

Amidst the Blowouts
The Big East finished off their eight opponents -- home games all -- Friday night by an average of 25.3 points. Two exceptions to the exhibition of BCS muscle-flexing came in Morgantown and Piscataway. True West Virginia led from the opening tip, but Coach Bob Huggins' squad had to withstand a furious closing rush by the Golden Eagles to perserve a 78-71 win. The Scarlet Knights, like West Virginia, broke on top early, but needed free throws at the end to hold off Big Green. Coach Mike Rice's squad struggled on offense, converting possessions-to-points at a 0.98 rate (about 62.7 possessions). The shot conversion (50.0% eFG%) was fine, but turnovers (a 25%+ rate) undermined the effort. A 40.9% assist rate was not especially impressive either. If this is a representative game (at least until the freshmen catch up), expect the front court, powered by junior Dane Miller and sophomore Gilvyda Baruta to provide the points. Among the freshmen two guards, Jerome Seagears and Eli Carter posted nine points apiece on relatively efficient shooting. West Virginia played a predictably high 73 possession game with seniors Kevin Jones and Darryl Bryant providing a good deal of the offense. Surprisingly the staff started freshman Jabari Hinds at the point, and the 5-11 spark plug did not disappoint, scoring nine points to go with five assists. Freshman forward Miles Keaton also got the starting nod (a message to Kevin Noreen?) and snagged two rebounds and five steals in 21 minutes of play.

2011-12 Preview -- Second Quartile

The Bottom Half of the Top Half
The teams who finish in this quartile will have won at least 10 games and almost certainly (if they were not too cute with their out of conference schedule) have an NCAA bid in hand when they leave Madison Square Garden after the Big East Tournament. The quartile will have (by my projection) two new teams, Notre Dame sliding down from a first quartile finish last season, and Marquette, sliding up from the 2011 third quartile.

	2010-11 Season
	Overall			Big East			BET	Post
Team	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	Seed	Season?
Cincinnati	26	9	0.743	11	7	0.611	6	NCAA
Marquette	22	14	0.611	9	9	0.500	11	NCAA
Notre Dame	27	7	0.794	14	4	0.798	2	NCAA
West Virginia	21	12	0.636	11	7	0.611	7	NCAA

Marquette, Notre Dame and West Virginia have established themselves as upper division (at times elite) programs in conference play, no small feat in the Big East. Cincinnati is back. Labeled a Dead Man Walking when Andy Kennedy, the last vestage of the Bob Huggins Era, stormed out of Fifth Third after a first round NIT loss back in 2006, Mick Cronin has revived the program and has them within striking distance of the conference penthouse.

Team Thumbnail (in 300 words...more or less)
Cincinnati -- Bearcat Rising?
The offensive and defensive efficiencies (points per possession), along with the difference margin for the past three seasons...

	Efficiency
Season	Off.	Def.	Margin
2008-09	1.03	1.11	-0.08
2009-10	1.00	1.06	-0.05
2010-11	1.03	0.98	0.05

...if the trendline holds Coach Mick Cronin's squad should better their 11-7 record by one or two wins this season. Lance Stephenson came and went as did Ibrahima Thomas; Deonta Vaughn lifted the Bearcats a bit and moved on; Rashad Bishop took his 15 minutes on the great stage, but the constant over the past three seasons has been Yancy Gates (27.8 MPG, 11.9 PPG, 6.9 RPG) -- with a nod to Dion Dixon (26.8 MPG, 11.6 PPG, 1.5:1.0 ATO). Those two were the squad's leading scorers last season, and without a doubt Coach Mick Cronin is happy to have both back again this season. Though Thomas and Bishop (& Darnell Wilkes) are gone, the Bearcats return 59% of their 2010-11 minutes (four points above the conference average of 55%) and 66% of their scoring. As usual, the Cincinnati team starts with the front court where Gates will be joined by returning rotation player Justin Jackson. Red shirt freshman Kelvin Gaines will compete with 6-10 JUCO big Cheikh Mbodj for starts and minutes in the low post. A trio of freshmen fowards, Octavius Ellis, Jermaine Sanders and Shaquille Thomas will find work on the wing, giving Cronin a "going big" option. Thomas is especially well regarded in that group, though Ellis is an interesting 6-9 in height. The back court will have two year starter Cashmere Wright again manning the point and pair up with Dixon, a senior off guard. Sean Kilpatrick started a single game in 2011-12, but played an average of 20.5 minutes while appearing in all 35 of the Bearcats' games. Kilpatrick will get a bit of competition from JaQuan Parker, a 6-3 junior who saw more minutes as a freshman. With freshmen guards Jeremiah Davis (a 6-3 native of Muncie, IN who prepped at Huntington Prep last year) and Ge'Lawn Guyn, a Kentucky native who prepped at South Kent last season pushing the rotation, there will competition for minutes at virtually every position.

A road trip to Georgia, a Cross Town randezvous at the Cintas Center and a visit from Oklahoma highlight the out of conference slate, not, Xavier aside, the most challenging preparation for conference play. The Xavier game will be billed a Top 10/15 matchup, and should be closer than last season's 22 point Bearcat beatdown of the Musketeers. If 'Nati is 14-0 for their New Years Day (2012) game with Pittsburgh, count on this game as a Top 10 matchup. Drawing mirrors with Marquette, St. John's and Villanova should be interesting. 6-0 may not be likely (but possible), 5-1 with sweeps of Villanova and St. John's is, if the offense gels, within reach, though 4-2 would be a modest bump in the road. Top conference contenders Louisville, Notre Dame and Syracuse will all visit Fifth Third, an advantage for Cronin's charges. Going 3-0 against those three should cushion against a road slate that includes Connecticut, Georgetown, Pittsburgh and West Virginia. Going 4-0 against that slate would probably net them the regular season crown, not realistic, but 2-2, even 1-3 would be keep them in the hunt for a bye seed for the year-end Garden party.

Marquette -- Tom Crean's Best Recruit...

Which Warrior/Golden Eagle
was Tom Crean's Best Recruit?
A.	Travis Diener
B.	Dwayne Wade
C.	Jerel McNeal
D.	Buzz Williams

If you answered (A) you are clearly a (Wisconsin) homer; (B) is a logical response at this point; (C) and you probably did not pay attention to Marquette until they joined the Big East (hint, there was life before 2006); in another three seasons, (D) might be the new no brainer. The best news for Marquette in an otherwise bad news (for the Big East) off season was that Buzz Williams turned aside talk of the Oklahoma job quickly and focused on the job at hand in Milwaukee. True the Sooners are in pretty bad shape but Oklahoma AD Joe Castiglione asked Buzz first, and the three year veteran, coming off of his first Sweet Sixteen run looked at the Sooners, and took a pass. Which leads me to think he, looking over the Golden Eagle 2011-12 roster and prospects (and a new contract?), had to like what he saw in Milwaukee more than Norman, a huge development given Williams' southwest roots. Though he (the Williams with a B) was out coached by Williams (the one with an R) last March, chalk that up to inexperience, something I suspect will happen less the longer he stays and the more notebooks he fills.

Oklahoma did find a good match in a very experienced Lon Kruger, but Marquette fans have to feel good going into this season. They lost NBA draftee Jimmy Butler, and a couple of other seniors (not to mention a promising front court player in Erik Williams), but return 62% of their 2010-11 minutes and 61.8% of the scoring, strong hints about the balance on the roster. Starters Darius Johnson-Odom (off guard...30.0 MPG, 15.8 PPG, 2.4 APG), Jae Crowder (#4, 27.6 MPG, 11.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG) and Chris Otule (#5, 17.6 MPG, 5.1 PPG, 3.6 RPG) are back, along with center Devante Gardner whose role and involvement grew as the season progressed. Expect the sophomore to challenge Otule for a larger role in the low post this season. DJO will be joined in the Marquette back court by junior Junior Cadougan (19.8 MPG, 4.0 PPG, 3.2 APG) who, along with sophomore Vander Blue (19.0 MPG, 5.1 PPG, 1.6 APG), have logged starts in their time at Marquette. Freshmen prospects Derrick Wilson, a 6-0 product of The Hotchkiss School will be Cadougan's back up at the #1, while Todd Mayo, a 6-3 guard out of Huntington, WV by way of Notre Dame Prep in Massachusetts (and younger brother of OJ Mayo) will join Blue and DJO in an off guard/wing rotation. Crowder along with Otule and Gardner will anchor the front court, but expect Oregon transfer Jamil Wilson to fill Butler's shoes on the wing. If he can become a consistent contributor and improve his outside shot, the Golden Eagles will not write this off as a "rebuilding" year. Expect freshman forward, 6-6 Juan Anderson (after he returns from his three game, NCAA-imposed suspension) and junior Jamail Jones to share time in the wing/forward rotation.

Marquette will headline a Paradis Jam field that also includes fellow power conference members Mississippi (SEC, the probable second round opponent) and Virginia (ACC, the probable Finals opponent). Though the field is augmented with CAA representative Drexel and MVC contender Drake, Marquette should win out. The balance of the out of conference slate features games with state rival Wisconsin (at Madison), Washington (Jimmy V Classic, New York City), at LSU (SEC) and Vanderbilt, an SEC contender. A one (even two) loss record going into conference play should not dampen the enthusiasm among fans (or on the Selection Committee). Mirror games with Cincinnati, Georgetown and Villanova means Marquette drew a more competitive-than-usual slate. 3-3 against that field would not be cause for alarm, 4-2 or 5-1 would be a very good sign. The Warriors will get home court advantage against Louisville and Pittsburgh two teams who should challenge for the conference regular season title. Beating at least one of the two would put Williams' crew on the path to a 7-2/8-1 conference home record, a prerequisite for a bye seed and serious run at the title. Their road opponents include Connecticut, Notre Dame, Syracuse and West Virginia, a tough draw that requires a dominating performance at home as a counter to a poor road showing. A 5-4 or better record away from the Bradley would be good news for Willliams' team.

Notre Dame -- Brey For the Defense?
Want to know how the Irish will do in conference play this season? Watch their defensive efficiency (points per possession allowed). Their winning percentage "moves" in the opposite direction as their defensive efficiency, as the table below suggests. Book it.

	Efficiency			Record
Year	Off.	Def.	Margin	W	L	Pct.
2007-08	1.101	1.036	0.065	14	4	0.778
2008-09	1.097	1.081	0.016	8	10	0.444
2009-10	1.135	1.097	0.038	10	8	0.556
2010-11	1.130	1.055	0.075	14	4	0.778

Understand that Notre Dame's defense will not win any awards soon. The Irish defensive points per possession (ppp) did not rank higher than 10 in any of the seasons listed above. They were ranked as low as #13 in 2008-09.

Coach Brey's squad returns 54.4% of Notre Dame's 2011 minutes and 49.5% of that squad's scoring. Though he will start the season on the bench, Tim Abromaitis (34.2 MPG, 15.4 PPG, 6.1 RPG) won't be benched for the second game. The staff used the fifth year wing/forward in an exhibition game his sophomore season and then red shirted him, a minor NCAA violation that should have no impact on Notre Dame's season -- Mississippi Valley State should offer little resistence. Eric Atkins (25.4 MPG, 5.8 PPG, 3.2 APG) will start at the point, much as he did last season, with fellow sophomore Joey Brooks (7.6 MPG, 1.6 PPG, 0.4 APG) along side him in the back court and senior Scott Martin (30.5 MPG, 9.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG) -- when his ankle is ready -- along side Abro on the wing. Brey will have the option of starting four guards (unlikely outside of the exhibition season), in which case he can call sophomore Alex Dragicevich or his classmate Jerian Grant, both of whom will fit into the regular rotation this season. Brey will go big and Jack Cooley (10.3 MPG, 3.7 PPG, 3.1 RPG), a Luke Harangody look-alike who appeared in all 34 games last season as Tyronne Nash's back up will get the nod. Freshman guard/forward Pat Connaughton (6-5, 206 pounds out of St. John's Prep in Arlington, Mass) will see time in the regular rotaton, while junior front court players Mike Broghammer and Tom Knight will draw situational minutes.

Notre Dame will compete in the CBE Classic, a mixed format invitational which provides two home games and a two round "championship" bracket against two BCS-level opponents on a neutral court (Kansas City, MO). The "regional" visitors are Detroit and Sam Houston State, while the Irish will face Missouri (Big 12) and one of California (Pac-12) or Georgia (SEC) in the second game. Missouri and California could be contenders in their respective conferences, while Georgia will finish somewhere in the middle of the SEC East. The Irish will travel to Washington state for a game with Gonzaga, then take a return engagement at the BB&T Classic to play Maryland (a strong showing in 2006-07 brought national exposure to the Kurz/Harangody front court combination). The out of conference scehcule winds down with a game in the Crossroads Classic versus Big Ten (and in state rival) Indiana. The Irish draw mirror games with Connecticut, Rutgers and West Virginia. If Notre Dame can perform on the road (an intermittent problem the past few seasons), they should log no worse than a 4-2 record (sweep Rutgers and split with UConn and WVU), with a ceiling of five wins, especially if West Virginia struggles. 3-3 signals a big problem with the 2012 edition of the program. If Notre Dame are "feeling normal", they Joyce Center will be a problem for everyone on their home slate (DePaul, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Providence, South Florida and Syracuse), though several (Pitt? Cuse? Marquette?) should be able to overcome the considerable advantage the Irish muster on their home court...4-2 perhaps? More likely 5-1 only if they are very, very good. The road slate as implemented may be less imposing than it looks on paper (Cincinnati, Georgetown, Louisville, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova). The Irish catch Cincinnati and Louisville early (Coach Pitino's teams tend to gel later in the season), while visiting both Georgetown and Villanova in February, a time when the Hoyas and Wildcats tend to fade. On paper 2-4 might look reasonable, but should Coach Brey's squad catch all the breaks, look for a ceiling of 5-1 -- in which case the Irish will be in serious pursuit of a bye seed to Madison Square Garden next March.

West Virginia -- Old Reliable?
The Big East coaches projected a #7 finish for the 'Eers with good reason -- West Virginia has not logged a losing conference record or a lower division finish in Bob Huggins four year tenure in Morgantown...

Season	W	L	Pct.	Mins
2010-11	11	7	0.668	55.9%
2009-10	13	5	0.722	65.9%
2008-09	10	8	0.556	61.9%
2007-08	11	7	0.668	53.8%

While the program returns only 39.3% of their 2010-11 minutes, the group will have nearly 45% of those points back.

Coach Huggins will bring back an inside-outside combination that should anchor both the front and back court contingents. Senior point guard Darryl Bryant (26.6 MPG, 11.6 PPG, 3.0 APG) will team with senior forward Kevin Jones (34.9 MPG, 13.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG) to bring experience to the lineup. Bryant, who had a period of adjustment between his freshman and sophomore seasons, has settled into the program and may be poised to have the season the Mountaineer Nation has anticipated since his All-Conference Rookie Team days. Huggins loves forwards and he will have several to look to this season, including returning junior rotation player Deniz Kilicli (16.4 MPG, 6.6 PPG, 4.0 RPG), a 6-9 bfc who was well regarded when he arrived in Morgantown (after a few delays) two seasons ago, red shirt freshman Kevin Noreen, a 6-10 245 pound bfc who played less than 40 minutes last season, 6-8, 240 pound JUCO junior Dominique Rutledge, a New Jersey native who made stops at Hutchenson CC (Kansas), Miami-Dade CC (Florida) and Western Texas College before landing in Morgantown. Rutledge, having played ball for Hutchenson and Miami-Dade, will be available immediately and has two years of eligibility. Those four will (barring injury) carrying the large portion of minutes (Jones, possibly Klicli -- sidelined with a ding to his knee and/or Noreen will start) though the freshman class also has several players to contribute to the front court rotation. Keaton Miles, a 6-6 'tweener out of Dallas, Texas started in West Virginia's exhibition loss to Northern Kentucky last weekend, while Pat Forsythe, a 6-11 240 pound center out of Brunswick High School in Ohio, Aaron Brown and Tommie McCune are also available (they combined for 26 minutes versus Northern Kentucky). In the back court, expect a starting tandem of Bryant and 5-11 Mount Vernon, NY native Jabari Hinds a veru well-regarded point guard. Include Paul Williamson (6-3, 195 lbs), Gary Browne (6-1, 185 lbs) and Aric Dickerson (6-5, 180 lbs) among the other freshmen who fill out the 2011-12 roster. A-10 refugees Aaric Murray (La Salle) and Juwan Statten (Dayton) will sit this season and continue their collegiate careers next season.

The out of conference schedule includes trips to Mississippi State (the Big East/SEC Challenge), a semi-neutral meeting with Kansas State, Miami in Morgantown and (pre)Christmas in Las Vegas that includes meetings with Missouri State and Baylor on consecutive nights. Getting to the conference regular season with a 12-0 record is not realistic, especially with the number of freshmen on the squad...11-1/10-2 however, is probable and would earn WVU a few votes in the polls. In addition to Backyard Brawl rival Pittsburgh, West Virginia drew Notre Dame and Rutgers as mirrors. 4-2 (sweep Rutgers, split with Pitt and NDU) seems reasonable, but given the early season road trip through the New York City metro area (Seton Hall and then Rutgers), the 'Eers may end up with three splits and 3-3 with the mirrors. Hosting Cincinnati, DePaul, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette and Villanova is especially fortuitous, given that 'Nati, GTown the Ville, Marquette and Nova should be WVU's nearest rivals in conference standings and the Coliseum is one of the least hospitable venues in the conference. 6-0/5-1 would put Huggins' squad in line for a bye seed. The road slate includes Connecticut, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, South Florida and Syracuse. Another very amenable slate for the 'Eers, 4-2 is probably the ceiling. 3-3, irrespective of the home and mirror records, is probably the floor...anything lower and WVU is probably not going to post a 0.500 or better record in conference play.

Elements They Share
Each of these four squads have an all-conference player or two. And if each has a question or two that will influence how their season plays out, none has an obvious hole in the roster that must be plugged to stay in the upper half of the conference. Their rotations are deep enough that a single injury would not derail the season. Two injuries on the other hand...

Most Likely to...(and why):
To Move Up a Quartile -- Cincinnati (or Marquette). Cronin and Williams are younger coaches whose players seem to respond to their passionate approach to basketball, game management and coaching. Each is a player (or a player-and-a-half) away from a Top 10 team. If Gates can hold down the low post with Thomas or Ellis emerging (along with Kilpatrick) on the wing or if Mbodj can improve over Thomas' contribution in the low post (and let Gates ad lib), then the Bearcats will be hard to stop. Can the Warriors' Wilson continue to work hard and stay focused? If the transfer can do that, and the Cadougan/Blue/Wilson combination make the point guard position work again for Marquette, then the Golden Eagles will pull a few upsets before the season's final gun.

Move Down a Quartile -- West Virginia. The 'Eers have a lot of questions to answer. If things break badly they may have problems holding the slide to 9-9. Notre Dame is another wildcatd. The Irish offense will be good -- it always is. Their standing will resolve over their defense.

Mia Culpa, Mia Maxima Culpa, 2011

Confessions & Observations...
I am a bit late with the previews this time around. The preseason was pre-empted with news and speculation about team movements among three BCS conferences and two-to-three nonBCS conferences, a process that seemed at times to take all of the oxygen out of the room. An especially distressing development as I was again reminded of the miniscule impact basketball had on the calculus of movement. Time to take a quick review of last season...

	2010-11 Actual					Proj.
Team	W	L	Pct	Seed	Qtl	Qtl
Cincinnati	11	7	0.611	7	2	3
Connecticut	9	9	0.500	9	3	3
DePaul	1	17	0.056	16	4	4
Georgetown	10	8	0.556	8	2	1
Louisville	12	6	0.667	4	1	2
Marquette	9	9	0.500	11	3	2
Notre Dame	14	4	0.778	2	1	3
Pittsburgh	15	3	0.833	1	1	1
Providence	4	14	0.222	14	4	4
Rutgers	5	13	0.278	13	4	4
Seton Hall	7	11	0.389	12	3	3
St. John's	12	6	0.667	5	2	2
South Florida	3	15	0.167	15	4	4
Syracuse	12	6	0.667	4	1	2
Villanova	9	9	0.500	10	3	1
West Virginia	11	7	0.611	6	2	1

Through a Looking Glass Darkly...
Ugh. It was a great season for the conference, as the Big East pulled down 11 invitaitons to the NCAA post season tournament, a record high for a conference, and with 68.8% of the members drawing bids, a record for post season money earned. Too bad the conference struggled in tournament play, moving only Marquette as far as the Sweet Sixteen last March. Though talk throughout the season centered on the notion that 11 bids were possible, I was a bit late to the party. I believed that the teams not invited would have to absorb a large number of losses (to insure most of the conference would have at least a 0.500 record) while those likely to draw the bids would have to split amongst themselves. Insuring the "perfect storm", the balance of Division I would have to relatively poor by comparison. It seems Division I was accomodating (unexpectedly) -- consider Butler, despite an unsteady 3-4 start that included a loss to Evansville, nevertheless ran to a consecutive Final Four, upsetting Pittsburgh before falling to #9 ranked (in conference play) Connecticut in the Championship Game. Within the Big East, sorting out the teams doomed to struggle was far easier than identifying the teams that would succeed.

Misses Mostly...
If I predicted the fourth quartile to the team, I missed pretty badly elsewhere. Of the four teams projected for first quartile finishes (Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Villanova and West Virginia), two (Georgetown and West Virgnia) finished in the second quartile while one (sigh, Villanova) fell all the way to the third quartile. I did manage to identify one second quartile finisher correctly (Cincinnati, though I would not have guessed they would finish higher than Villanova) to go with two third quartile finishers (Connecticut! -- right answer, wrong reason -- and Seton Hall). Notre Dame, a third quartile team in my projection ran to an excellent 14-4 record to finish #2, good for a BET bye seed and first quartile finish. I correctly placed half of the conference (within a quartile), but missed by two quartiles on two teams. Ouch.

What's Next
I decided to revert to a quartile-by-quartile preview, providing thumbnails of each team projected to finish in that specific quartile. The quartile previews will be posted over the course of this week. Other projects took time normally devoted to preparing the team-by-team previews, and I anticipated the addition of Texas Christian would preclude another oppportunity to preview the conference by fourths. Correct answer again, but for the wrong reason.

Transfers and JUCOs -- Eight to Watch

The Thing Is...
Restocking a roster with JUCOs is a viable option as a quick, short term remedy for a depleted roster. First and second year coaches take that path, especially if, like Coach Mick Cronin, they step into the kind of post Apocolyptic locker room left by Bob Huggins and Andy Kennedy or, like Coach Steve Lavin, they step into a program very heavily weighted with a single class. The good news is the program has game-ready players. The bad news -- the program has the JUSO's services for two years at best (if the JUCO does not sabotage himself). Transfers may provide an extra season of eligibility (leaving early, like Wesley Johnson, is always a problem), but take a roster spot for the year they have to sit per NCAA-imposed "penalty" for deciding to change schools. Some programs, Xavier, keep their pipeline well stocked with redshirts and transfers, the effect of which reduces the swings that can plague their high school recruiting efforts. The Big East has had an uptick in JUCOs in the 2011 off season, only partly the effect of having four new coaches in the 2011 season -- Mick Cronin and Stan Heath just cannot seem to put old habits aside. The conference again saw more outbound transfers than inbounds from 2010 -- the ones who will be eligible in 2011-12. The following eight new faces are not all destined to be impact players (two or three perhaps...), but all should be solid contributors (at least) to their respective programs...

	Who, What, Where...
Player	Pos.	Hgt	Wgt	From	To
G G Achiuwa	PF	6-8	240	Erie CC (NY)	St. John's
Donnavan Kirk	PF	6-9	225	Miami	DePaul
Nurideen Lindsey	PG	6-4	185	Redlands CC	St. John's
Cheikh Mbodji	C	6-9	245	Grayson Cty JC	Cincinnati
Blake Nash	PG	6-0	175	Williston State	USF
Victor Rudd	SF	6-7	205	Arizona State	USF
Dominic Rutledge	PF	6-8	225	Western Texas College	WVU
Jamil Wilson	SF	6-7	220	Oregon	Marquette

Note the 2012-eligible transfers are highlighted in green. A quick check on transfers (but not JUCOs) over at College Hoops Update lists 246 outbound transfers this past spring and summer. Of that cohort, most -- but not all -- who have or will find another D1 program will sit for a season before gaining eligibility. All three listed here (Donnavan Kirk, Victor Rudd and Jamil Wilson) sat for NCAA-mandated two semesters. Donnavan Kirk should be available after DePaul's Autumn Quarter (probably for games in late December and after). The power forward took an injury-related red shirt as a freshman at Miami in 2009-10. He played 13 games for the Hurricanes in 2010-11 before transferring to the Blue Demons. With nearly a year in Coach Purnell's system even before he takes the court, the DePaul staff would have to be very happy if Kirk can develop into a Ray Sykes-type player for them. Assembling Jamil Wilson's statistics was easy, (many...) thanks to Ken Pomeroy. For Kirk and Victor Rudd however, neither logged enough minutes to show up on Pomeroy's radar (he sets a lower boundary of 10% playing time for the team for the season). I used the stats provided by the individual schools to extrapolate many of the efficiency stats. The JUCOs were more problematic, as none of their previous stops contained much by way of detailed data. Unlike prior years, I can do no better than per capita-type stats based on press releases...

		On Offense...
Player	Gms	Mins	%Min	%Shots	PPWS
Donnavan Kirk	13	124	23.1	40.6	0.95
Victor Rudd	15	93	7.0	31.1	0.93
Jamil Wilson	26	444	33.8	17.4	1.00

The percentage of minutes played for Kirk and Rudd is based on the number of games in which they appeared (Rudd logged 7% of the minutes at his position in the 15 games in which he appeared for Arizona State back in the fall of 2010). Of the three, Wilson, who eventually started 14 times in his 26 appearances while at the Eugene, Oregon school. Look for Wilson, a Wisconsin native whose single season in the Pacific Northwest left him a bit homesick, to step into Jimmy Butler's role for Marquette. Butler who was drafted in the first round of the NBA last June, left some very large shoes to fill, but Wilsom offers a slightly better three point shot than Butler who seemed at times to be more a #4 in a #3's body...

	Some Four Factors...
			FTA
Player	%Min	eFG%	FGA
Donnavan Kirk	23.1	40.6	31.3
Victor Rudd	7.0	44.4	27.8
Jamil Wilson	33.8	46.8	24.5

Granted the limited minutes played tend to skew offensive number, nevertheless Victor Rudd showed a willingness to shoot, something an offensively-starved Bulls squad certainly needs, but the 6-7 former Sun Devil will have to convert more efficiently if he is going to log significant minutes in a front court rotation that includes Toarlyn Fitzpatrick and Hugh Robertson.

	...per Game
	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl
Blake Nash	22.3	5.6	4.5	2.3
God's Gift Achiuwa	22.3	11.7	1.3	1.3
Nurideen Lindsey	22.3	5.6	5.1	2.5
Cheikh Mbodj	15.4	7.6	1.1	0.5

All four played an entire JUCO season in 2011. For a program that returns a single rotation player from their 2011 squad, St. John's will have more than enough minutes to give to Nurideen Lindsey and God's Gift Achiuwa. The two were headliners at their respective squads. Achiuwa was in the conversation for a few Division 1 programs, but academics were a problem. Lindsey drew quite a bit of attention as a high schooler in Philadelphia's Overbrook High School, and appeared to be on track as La Salle's latest back court sensation, when academics among other distractions sent him packing for the Dakota badlands, where he toiled a season. Lindsey had choices, and decided the prospect of starting at the point for the Red Storm for the next season or two (or three) might be his best career move. Achiuwa was discovered at a camp for prospecive basketballers in Nigeria coached by Erie CC head coach Alex Nwora. His numbers look very good for a big (projected as a #4, but will probably play the #5 next season), but consider the 6-9 wide body has less than three years of organized play -- one year in the US -- under his belt. Bigs take time Red Storm fans...

Blake Nash might be the latest candidate to try out as Dominiue Jones' replacement. South Florida, held to 0.97 points per possession in conference play last season (#14 in the conference), is desparate for a consistent scorer going into this season. As Jones developed the Bulls' standing in the conference improved, and his early departure at the end of the 2010 season sent the Bulls' stock plummeting again in 2011. Coach Heath really needs an offensive spark plug. Nash's success is key to Heath's survival. Coach Mick Cronin had some success with a twin tower approach to the low post last season, playing Ibrahima Thomas and Yancy Gates in tandem to control the boards and get put backs. Thomas seemed reluctant to embrace his assigned role as banger for the Bearcats, but Cheikh Mbodji, whose JUCO coach suggests is a hybrid forward, should be able to bang down low and also step out when Gates wants to work the low post. While the Bearcats also have two freshmen and a sophomore available for duty at the foward/center spots, Mbodji insures that none of them will be thrown into the deep end too early.

But What About?
6-10 center Andre Jackson who was bound for South Florida last May does not appear on the fall roster. Jackson played six games for Lee College in Texas in 2011 and averaged (in those six games...) just over 16 points per game. No idea where he will surface next. Dominique Rutledge has enrolled at West Virginia, and the 6-8 power forward orignally out of Edison Prep in New Jersey was added in the wake of Danny Jennings' transfer to Long Beach State at the end of the 2011 season. Since high school graduation in 2008, Rutledge has logged a single full season, at Hutchinson County College in Kansas, took a red shirt year at Miami Dade Community College before landing at the intake end of one of Coach Bob Huggins' JUCO pipelines. Rutledge worked out last season with Coach Jason Sautter's Western Texas College program squad while waiting for eligibility to kick in. Sautter, who coached current West Virginia guard Casey Mitchell, filled in Huggins about Rutledge, and the 225 23 year old, classified as a junior, should have two years of eligibility remaining.

Hits and Misses...Last Season's Transfer/JUCOs
Coach Buzz Williams hit another one out of the park with Jae Crowder. The forward stepped into Lazar Hayward's spot in the lineup and despite a few rough patches, he (along with work-in-progress low post players Chris Otule and Davante Gardener) provided a solid front court that helped the Warrors run to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time in the Williams Era. Hugh Robertson started 31 of South Florida's 33 games, logging the second highest number of minutes played on the squad last season. He competed with fellow JUCOs Jawanza Poland and Shedrick Haynes (& four others) for playing time and shots in the USF back court. Robertson's offense, plagued by poor shooting, reduced him to Role Player-level in the Bulls' offense. Poland too was plagued by inconsistent shooting, but unlike Robertson who stapped back, Poland continued to fire away. Coach Heath put Poland, Robertson and two other guards, Anthony Crater and Shaun Noriega in a revolving rotation in an effort to find the hot shooter (or shooters) on any given night. Haynes packed his bags and along with sophomore guard Mike Burwell, became the latest in a growing list of players who left Coach Stan Heath's program with eligibility remaining. Haynes landed at Division 2 power Tarleton College, where he will finish his career in 2012. Ron Anderson logged 55.5% of the playing time in a front court rotation that included Gus Gilchrist and Francis Tarlyn Fitzpatrick and Jarrid Famous. Though his offensive rating declined slightly from his Kansas State days, Anderson's role did grow to a high-end Role Player. Scott Martin averaged 30 minutes per game while appearing (and starting) in 33 of Notre Dame's 34 games last season. The 6-8 forward averaged just under 10 points per game as well, three point shooting his greatest vulnerability. A very versatile player in Coach Kevin Willard's offense, Eniel Polynice, managed to play positions #1 through #4 on offense and defense at some point last season. The fifth year senior had shooting problems all season however, and was generally the fourth option on offense through much of the season. A preseason injury sidelines Rutgers guard Tyree Graham, while fifth year senior Roburt Sallie never made it to the Louisville campus (and into a Cardinal game). Sallie ran afoul of the "no comparable Masters Program" clause in the transfer rule, and was not cleared to play for Coach Pitino's team.

2012 (To) Watch Lists
Rising Seniors to Watch
Rising Juniors to Watch
Rising Sophomores to Watch

Signs of the Off Season 2011-05 -- ESPN Feeds the Basketball Jones

Break Out Your Track Shoes, We Are Running a Marathon
Irene dominated the headlines going into the weekend, but thanks to the basketball-focused crew at Rush the Court, ESPN's Friday release of a preliminary Marathon Day lineup and schedule did not go completely unnoticed. The Marathon is scheduled for Tuesday November 15 and will include 19 NCAA Division 1 games (17 men and two women), to be broadcast over four outlets (ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN3.com and ESPNU), over (at least) a 25 hour period. In addition the World Wide Leader promises a one hour "College GameDay" to be broadcast at 6pm, as the teaser to the feature games, Duke vs. Michigan State (at 7pm) and Kentucky vs Kansas (at 9pm).

In keeping with the tradition, ESPN will kick off the basketball festival with a midnight game, this year's honors going to Washington State and Gonzaga (the second consecutive marathon in which a West Coast Conference team opens against a BCS conference team), which will be followed by eight consecutive games, all broadcast on ESPN and ESPN3.com. The games will suspend for the season's first "Game Day" feature. To capitalize on the prime time slots, the WWW will resume at 7:00pm with (at least) five more games distributed via their ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN3.com and ESPNU outlets, each to begin at the top of the hour. The action begins at midnight 11/15 with a PAC-12/WCC matchup on the West Coast. St. Mary's makes the marathon for the second consecutive year, though in a less desirable 2am slot, as the Gaels play Northern Iowa of the Missouri Valley Conference. The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors make their annual appearance at 4am when they host South Alabama of the Sun Belt Conference, before the coverage moves to the East Coast to pick up the Drexel (CAA) versus Rider (MAAC) game at 6am.

Winners & Losers
The womens' game is a big winner with two games carried on the secondary outlets in the late afternoon hours. Leading off the women's slate is a Louisville-Texas A&M game at 4pm, followed by the second game, which will overlap the Game Day feature on ESPN. The Tennessee-Miami game should draw a fair amount of attention, as Tennessee's Pat Summitt will coach her first regular season game on the heels of her diagnosis of early-onset Alzheimer’s disease.

ESPN-sponsored early season invitationals -- should be a big winner. ESPN has invested heavily in the November (Thanksgiving-based) early season invitational tournaments, and the preliminary (campus-based) rounds for those tournaments have been fodder for the marathon feeding frenzy, with a handful of made-for-tv matchups in the prime-time slots. While ESPN has often gone to the non-BCS conferences for opponents (versus BCS opponents) to fill the off-hours slots, this marathon seems to rely heavily on the ESPN-sponsored invitationals, as the network will showcase seven of the preliminary games in the CBE Classic, the NIT Tip-Off, EA Sports Maui Invitational and the Legends Classic. The NIT Tip-Off will show four games alone. Those early season invitationals should get a good deal of free publicity during the games. If that does not boost ticket sales, it will at least put those teams in front of the public and media. In addition to the invitationals, ESPN has also put together three made-for-tv matchups using State Farm as the sponsor.Those three games straddle the primetime viewing slots and feature perennial powers Duke, Florida, Kentucky and Kansas (men) along with Miami and Tennessee (women).

The BCS Conferences -- setting aside the women's games for a moment, the "conference count" based on ESPN's announcement...

Conference	No.	Teams
Big XII	4	Baylor, Kansas, Ok St., Texas
Pac-12	3	Cal. Stanford, Wash St.
ACC	2	Duke, Va. Tech
Big Ten	2	Mich. St., Ohio State
Big East	2	Syracuse, WVU
SEC	2	Florida, Kentucky
West Coast	2	Gonzaga, St. Mary's
Ohio Valley	2	Austin Peay, Morehead St.
Atlantic 10	1	Rhode Island
Mount. West	1	San Diego St.
Missouri Valley	1	No. Iowa
CUSA	1	Memphis
CAA	1	Drexel
West. Athl.	1	Hawaii
Sun Belt	1	So. Alabama
Atl. Sun	1	Belmont
Southern	1	Coll. of Charleston
MAAC	1	Rider
MAC	1	Kent St.
SWAC	1	Ark. Pine Bluff
TBDs	3	Opponents unannounced

If the Atlantic Coast Conference, the SEC (or the Big East for that matter) did not get many teams in the marathon, at least Duke pulled a prime-time slot on ESPN. Kentucky and Florida kick off in prime-time, with the Wildcats on ESPN and the Gators on ESPN2. Syracuse on the other hand will televise on ESPN3.com with an unannounced opponent and unknown time slot. Three opponents, all in the early season invitational field, were not announced Friday.

California, Tennessee & Kentucky -- California placed four teams in the marathon field while the Volunteer and Blue Grass states had three apiece. Of the other 47 states, Ohio and Washington supplied two teams apiece, while 28 states have no team in the field. Notable exclusions among the states...Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Wisconsin, Arizona and Maryland.

Northeastern Basketball -- appears to be one of the losers this time around. While the northeast pulled down the 6am slot again (Drexel at Rider -- will Ray Floriani be able to get to Rider that early?), the marathon moves south and west for the 8am and 10am games. Drexel is the only major city-based team in the northeast corredore (Boston-New York City-Philadelphia-Baltimore-Washington DC) to place a team in the marathon. Four northeast teams, Rider (6am versus Drexel), West Virginia (10am) Rhode Island (4pm from Texas) and Syracuse (TBD), in addition to Drexel, made the marathon field.

The Big East Conference 2012 -- Home & Road Opponents

Who Drew a Short Straw?
Most of the commentary about conference opponents has devolved into a recitation of the opposing slate laced with opinions (with a heavy reliance on memory and recollection...) of whether this player is returning, that recruit will make an impact and the other team was good/bad or will be better/worse than they were last season. With the many of the the "summer report" cycle winding down, many of the academic casualties going into the fall semester still unannounced, the NCAA Clearing House yet to process many in the incoming class, there is more speculation than fact available when looking at the home-away slates...

Maters of Their Domains?
Win the home games -- one of the first rules of conference play, comes into play every season. Running the home slate will not guarantee a top finish in conference play (think of Louisville's 9-0 record at the Yum! last season; the Cards still finished in a three-way tie for third and took the #4 seed at Madison Square Garden), but doing just better than 0.500 will not get your team into the bye seeds (think Villanova's #9 seed on a 5-4 home record). If your team is expected to challenge for a bye seed, which suggests your favorites ought to be able to go toe-to-toe with the conference heavyweights (...which would suggest your team is one of the conference heavyweights...), then common sense would dictate that the toughest opponents should come to visit. On homecourt your guys have the high ground. On the other hand, you your team is struggling for respectability, and a place in the post season conversation, then running up a big home court record (and taking your lumps on the road...) would be the better strategy...assuming your guys can keep it respectable on the road. Excluding the mirrors (I looked at those pairings in an earlier post), which teams got a draw that works for their strategy? I looked at home opponents...

	Opps	Ret.
Team	PWP	Min%	Comments
Seton Hall	0.448	0.491	'Ville, NDU & Pitt!
DePaul	0.441	0.645	Not a good draw for needs
St. John's	0.421	0.631	Thrown into the deep end?
Syracuse	0.414	0.519	What they want
Connecticut	0.408	0.494	A puzzle?
Rutgers	0.396	0.556	'Nati & Cuse
Marquette	0.387	0.476	A rebuilding year?
Notre Dame	0.380	0.687	A lot of routs in South Bend
Georgetown	0.369	0.556	RU, USF & PC...
Louisville	0.366	0.538	Swap Rutgers for 'Nati?
West Virginia	0.363	0.612	'Vill & 'Nati toughest
Providence	0.362	0.547	Host the Huskies
South Florida	0.352	0.432	Favorable for Bulls?
Cincinnati	0.337	0.678	Returning mins high
Villanova	0.331	0.661	See above
Pittsburgh	0.330	0.486	Cincinnati and...?!

The table orders the conference by average Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) of the non-mirror visiting teams. I also averaged that slate's returning minutes, to give myself an idea of whether each team would face a home slate with personnel similar to the personnel they faced in 2011. The conference average for returning minutes next season (as of July...) is 56.1%. The results brought a few surprises.

One of the more interesting questions is where Connecticut will fit in 2012. The Huskies, who finished #9 in the conference last season with a 4-5 road record, and will not have the services of Kemba Walker (or Jamal Coombs-McDaniels) next season, remain an enigma. Georgetown, Louisville and Villanova may count themselves lucky in that they get to host a sophomore-dominated squad next season without having to take a rematch in Storrs. St. John's, which returns all of 4.8% of their 2011 minutes (and 3.7% of their scoring), is another wildcard. Coach Steve Lavin will have an extremely talented -- but extremely young -- roster to mold. The Red Storm sported a relatively modest 0.333 road PWP last season, even lower than their 4-5 record would suggest. But given the virtual makeover for 2012, even 0.333 may be an overstatement. Will Marquette, Pittsburgh and Seton Hall regret not drawing the Johnnies at the Garden as a swap for say Notre Dame, Syracuse and Cincinnati (repsectively)? Though most expect Pittsburgh to contend again next season (Jamie Dixon has the best conference record of any Big East coach over the past five seasons), the Panthers cannot look to a favorable schedule mix as a boost. Of their non-mirror visitors, Cincinnati (0.447), Georgetown (0.425) and Villanova (0.405) have the highest road PWPs in 2011 conference games. Of those three, only the Bearcats return more than the conference average for minutes next season. For Cincinnati, the high percentage of returning minutes, combined with high percentage of returning scoring from their visitors will make matching their 2011 conference home record (6-3) a challenge. If the Bearcats want to move into the conference elites however, they will have to dominate that slate.

...And On the Road
The road strategy reverses for those aspiring to bye bids -- take the weakest teams in their buildings. For those struggling in conference play, opportunities to win are maximized at home, so take the conference elites on the road and hope to stem the bleeding in the low double digits...

	Opps	Ret.
Team	PWP	Min%	Comments
Louisville	0.710	0.484	St. John's & WVU skew mins
Notre Dame	0.706	0.471	Johnnies, Hoyas & Hall
Villanova	0.692	0.449	Johnnies, Hoyas & RU skew
DePaul	0.683	0.525	What Demons need?
Providence	0.679	0.503	Good for need?
Georgetown	0.666	0.616	'Ville, Pitt & Cuse Oh my!
South Florida	0.643	0.653	DPU only road softie...
Rutgers	0.620	0.627	Matches bubble strategy
Pittsburgh	0.620	0.633	UConn, NDU & Cuse
Seton Hall	0.616	0.654	Cuse & Nova
Marquette	0.612	0.650	Irish, Orange & 'Eers
Syracuse	0.593	0.487	Good match to need
West Virginia	0.580	0.553	Cuse & Huskies
St. John's	0.567	0.555	If team struggles...ouch
Cincinnati	0.558	0.521	A good match for need
Connecticut	0.521	0.596	Tailored to need?

I calculated the PWP for road games (conference only) for each team and averaged those road PWPs for each team's slate of opponents. Again mirrors have been excluded.

For Connecticut, Syracuse, De Paul and Providence, the slate matches the strategy pretty well. The Demons and Friars want wins, and conceding road games to the stronger teams in the conference in exchange for favorable home matchups should be cause for little concern. Each drew a challenging road slate that features Cincinnati and Notre Dame. The Huskies and Orange, by contrast, want their weakest opponents on the road, on the assumption they will beat them no matter where they play. Both feature road games with Rutgers, but other fourth quartile finishers are listed among each team's mirrors. Coach Calhoun's squad will see the Bulls, who sport the weakest 2011 home PWP this side of De Paul. Coach Boeheim drew De Paul, owner of the weakest home PWP last season. Syracuse also drew rebuilding St. John's. If the Storm struggles, this could prove to be a hidden bonus.

Exclusions, Exceptions...ie The Fine Print
The dynamics of a team are not especially predictable. It is rarely in a coach's (or school's) interests to disclose that half the squad does not want to play ball with the other half, or is planning to transfer at the end of the season. Injuries have derailed a team's season and a player's career, and yet remain among the wildcards. Players sometimes behave badly, the type of situation that most fans see far more clearly after the fact than before. All of those however are random and absolutely unknowable. The as yet uncharted elements that can impact a team's ability to successfully navigate their conference schedule...
1. Chronology & Sequence -- will the team draw the easier opponents earlier or later in the conference season? The distribution of "difficulty" might seem even in the preseason or early season, but unknowable events can strengthen or weaken slate as the season progresses. Villanova looked like a world beater eight games into their 2011 conference slate, having taken down Syracuse by double digits on the road, but four weeks later they could not beat South Florida on a neutral court.
2. Home/Away Distribution -- Though the conference tries to schedule no more than two consecutive away games, circumstances can make that impossible. A school may schedule an away out of conference opponent at the beginning or end of an away sequence, adding a level of difficulty (TV money can cloud judgement that way).
3. Youth vs. Maturity -- Common wisdom suggests freshmen-dominated squads "wear out" in the latter stages of the season. Balance that nugget with a countervailing common wisdom notion that freshmen progress as the season lengthens (think Jeremy Lamb here). How can we use that information when determining if the 'Eers (who return 39% of their minutes and 45% of their scoring) will be a better team to host than visit? How about St. John's, which returns 5% or their minutes and 4% of their scoring?

Thoughts on the Wildcats' Slate
The home-road slates are a mixed bag that would help if Villanova proves to be a bubble team next season. The 'Cats, who bring back 52% of their playing time and 47% of their scoring should benefit from drawing a comparatively weak home slate. Leaving out the mirrors, the 'Cats should be able to handle Seton Hall and De Paul, two teams they barely beat at the end of the 2011 season, not to mention Providence, a team that cleaned their clocks, all on the road last season. A youngr Connecticut squad (the Huskies swept the 'Cats in 2011) will visit as well. On the road, Pitt and Louisville will be tough unless everything falls into place for the 'Cats. Georgetown will depend as much on how well the new Hoyas gell as on the Wildcats' maturity. Villanova will revisit Rutgers, a team that beat them in overtime last season, and as been mentioned before, the enigmatic Johnnies will pose a challenge.

Roster Moves -- After the NBA Draft Deadline

Outbound Undergraduates
The Spring Signing Period is over, and the deadline for undergraduates to pull their names from the NBA draft has come and gone. The rosters of the Big East are hardly complete, but with the NBA draftees known and the first wave of outbound transfers identified, it seems a good time to pause and take stock of who (graduating seniors aside...) who else will not return to school in the fall. The Big East's undergraduate contribution to NBA draft list this time around seems light, and that is a good thing. The transfer list on the other hand, seems about as big as prior seasons (2009, when the economic uncertainties persuaded nearly everyone, coaches and players alike, to put "moving plans" on hold, excepted), depressingly so. The usual suspects (South Florida, Louisville, Georgetown) contribute their fair share to the outbound migration...

Connecticut

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Jamal Coombs-McDaniel	6-7	Forward	Soph.	Trans - TBD
Kemba Walker	6-0	Guard	Junior	NBA

Though a junior, most in the Huskie Nation believed this would be Kemba Walker's last season in Storrs. The dynamic guard did not disappoint, delivering Coach Jim Calhoun a third National Championship before declaring for the NBA draft. If Walkers' departure was anticipated, Jamal Coombs-McDaniel's exit was not. Connecticut voluntarily surrendered a men's basketball scholarship as part of the penalty in the Nate Miles Affair. News in mid-May that their APR fell below the NCAA-mandated limit of 825 meant that the Huskies would yield two more next season. That leaves Coach Jim Calhoun with 10 scholarships to distribute next season. For a coach used to having a rotation of 10 or 11 players available, next season should be a very different experience. Losing Coombs-McDaniel, a rising junior who has been a contributor for two seasons, will hurt.

DePaul

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Michael Bizoukas	6-1	Guard	Junior	Missouri State

Michael Bizoukas is a red shirt junior holdover from the Coach Wainwright Era. A sometime starter over the course of his three seasons at DePaul, his role would most likely have been reduced as Coach Purnell brought in more players he took a more direct hand in recruiting. Bizoukas should be able to contribute right away at Missouri State,

Georgetown

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Vee Sanford	6-3	Guard	Soph.	Dayton
Jerrelle Benimon	6-7	Forward	Soph.	Trans - TBD

Though neither of the sophomores, forward Jerrelle Benimon and guard Vee Sanford were (per Ken Pomeroy) significant contributors to the Hoya offense, the loss of both is yet another example of an ongoing problem at Georgetown in the Coach Thompson Era -- the outbound transfer of many supporting players. A too short bench has come back to bite the Hoyas at times in the last three seasons. The Hoyas anticipate having 12 scholarship players available in 2012, with five of those players incoming freshmen. An untimely injury or two can expose the squad.

Louisville

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Terrence Jennings	6-10	Forward	Junior	NBA
George Goode	6-8	Forward	Junior	Trans - TBD

Though he played behind Samardo Samuels for two seasons and he did not have the impact season he might have wanted, junior forward Terrence Jennings declared for the NBA draft and will not return to Louisville next season. The status of red shirt junior George Goode however is less clear. Early in the off season the forward was linked with rising sophomore Russ Smith as a pair who would follow Assistant Coach Steve Masiello to Manhattan College, play immediately (5th year senior) and finish out his career in the MAAC. With the normally chaotic scholarship situation at Louisville (right now they have 12 "on scholarship", with two more "verbals" on tap...that does not include the three walk-ons) even more up in the air this off season, is it possible that Goode might be back? Stay tuned...



Marquette

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Reggie Smith	6-0	Guard	Frosh.	UNLV
Erik Williams	6-7	Forward	Soph.	Sam Houston State

Freshman Reggie Smith had already settled in a UNLV before the start of the spring semester. Forward Erik Williams is another story. The Texan was little used during most of the season, accumulating about 11% of the available minutes at the #4 per Ken Pomeroy. Williams did earn 11 starts over the course of the season, though Cracked Sidewalks points out that "...Buzz Williams decided to start Williams at the beginning of each half in nine of MU's final 10 games to reduce Jae Crowder's penchant for foul trouble. During that stretch, only once did Williams log more than 10 minutes -- the home blowout of Providence -- and he failed to score in half of those contests...". A homecoming of sorts, Williams should find a larger offensive role at Sam Houston State. And Coach Buzz Williams will continue to draw Texas players up to Milwaukee.

Notre Dame

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Carleton Scott	6-8	Forward	Junior	NBA

Limited to a role player and having an additional year of eligibility available, Carleton Scott nevertheless threw his lot with the NBA draft this spring. Noted for defensive rebounding and scoring inside the arc, as a veteran contributor Scott will be missed. But it could have been worse, Coach Brey and the Notre Dame faithful can look forward to one last season from fifth year senior Tim Abromaitis.

Pittsburgh

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
J.J. Richardson	6-7	Forward	Soph.	Houston

Though he tore up the courts in the Panthers' Irish Tour last summer, JJ Richardson had difficulty carving his niche in the rotation with sophomore Dante Taylor, junior Nasir Robinson and red shirt freshman Talib Zanna ahead of him. A native of Texas, Richardson decided to go home and try again with Houston.

Seton Hall

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Anali Okoloji	6-8	Forward	Frosh.	George Mason
Ferrakohn Hall	6-8	Forward	Soph.	Memphis

Sophomore Ferrakohn Hall was a reluctant recruit dating back to his freshman season, the tumultuous last season for Coach Bobby Gonzalez. Persuaded to try another season, Hall lasted a semester and decided to transfer back home, finding a place in Coach Josh Pastner's Memphis program. Anali Okoloji was an early recruit for current Coach Kevin Willard, but freshman forward saw only spot minutes playing behind fellow freshman Patrik Auda.

South Florida

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Mike Burwell	6-6	Guard	Soph.	Towson
Shedrick Haynes	6-0	Guard	Junior	Tarleton St.

Like St. John's under former coach Norm Roberts, the South Florida program is acquiring a turnstile-like quality. The latest outbound transfers include sophomore guard Mike Burwell and JUCO Shedrick Haynes. Though he appeared in 31 of the Bulls' 33 games (and started five), Burwell logged a total of 251 minutes, averaging about eight minutes per appearance. Haynes appeared in 25 games, averaging about six minutes per appearance. Both should see more playing time at their next stop. Coach Stan Heath has replacements lined up already.

St. John's

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Dwayne Polee	6-7	Forward	Frosh.	Trans - TBD
Quincy Roberts	6-5	Guard	Soph.	Trans - TBD

From viturally his first week on the job, St. John's Coach Steve Lavin has been shaking up the recruiting trail, compiling an impressive list of signees. While most understood that his very large 2010 senior class would require a large incoming 2011-12 class to replace them, few expected to see even more roster spots created by outbound transfers. Sophomore guard Quincy Roberts showed flashes in his freshman season, but an injury sidelined him in Coach Norm Roberts' last season, and the red shirt sophomore appeared in four games in the 2011 season, so his transfer is not a surprise. Freshman Dwayne Polee was one of the players the Red Storm staff consciously groomed for leadership going into the 2012 season. One of the few returning players with starting responsibilities in 2011, Polee seemed to be a player the staff looked to to form the nucleus of the next generation of St. John's teams.

West Virginia

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Dan Jennings	6-8	Forward	Soph.	Trans - TBD
Dalton Pepper	6-5	Guard	Soph.	Temple

The subject of frequent transfer rumors in his freshman year, Dalton Pepper finally pulled the trigger after the 2011 season. At one time recruited by virtually all of Philadelphia's Division 1 teams, Pepper's eventual decision to cast his lot with Coach Fran Dunphy and his Temple Owls is entirely reasonable. Fellow sophomore Dan Jennings appeared in 14 games last season, starting in four. Jennings was most active in the Mountaineers' out of conference schedule, but left the bench two minutes into the second half of West Virginia's South Florida game and did not appear in any game after. Will he be missed? Not much according to Coach Bob Huggins.

Signs of the Off season, 2011 -- Trouble in the Big East Conference?

Ahhhh, What Just Happened (part 2)?
The Big East meetings in Ponte Verda Beach, Fla. got off to an interesting start Monday when Connecticut basketball Coach Jim Calhoun opined the Big East Conference would last another 4-5 years, but most likely not beyond. Suggesting he would be in retirement by then ("Apres moi, le deluge" perhaps?), the 68 year old coach (25 years at UConn) believes, according to CBS blogger Brett McMurphy, the split will be along basketball and football lines, with the eight basketball-only schools raiding the Atlantic-10 conference for several more teams to create a conference that would predominantly consist of Catholic universities. Coach Calhoun's analysis, fairly well discussed by conference fans and others over the past four-to-five years surprises only because it has been voiced publicly by one of the conference's coach patriarchs, quite contrary to an unacknowledged (Big East) policy not to speculate about the future composition of the conference membership. SportingNews' long-time sportswriter-come-blogger Mike DeCourcy registered a surprising dissent the next day. Surprising because DeCourcy has been a persistent and vocal critic of mega-conferences since the 16 member Western Athletic Conference imploded after the 1999 season. DeCourcy was an early-and-often critic when the Big East expanded to 16 members in 2005, so why the change in tune? For DeCourcy, money is the grease that keeps the Big East's wheel running smoothly. Perhaps he is right, or it seemed that way through Tuesday night, when the conference Athletic Directors adjourned to their scheduled Wednesday morning meeting, where Commissioner John Marinatto scheduled a discussion on TV contract negotiations, BCS matters, bowl payouts and (football?) scheduling.

Was It Something He Said?
The Wednesday morning meeting (along with the golf outing?) was abruptly cancelled amid a flurry of conflicting public statements, when West Virginia AD Oliver Luck, whose distaste for the Big East Commissioner has become increasingly public since his succeeded Ed Pasilong in June, 2010, led a faction consisting of Pittsburgh and Rutgers out of the Ponte Verda Beach Inn Wednesday morning. Brett McMurphy posted an announcement at 10:30 am, from a "conference spokesman", that characterized the three AD's departure as "unexpected" and suggested Luck departed to deal with a problem related to West Virginia's football offensive coordinator. Luck countered with an announcement (released through McMurphy) three hours later, that contradicted the original announcement. The "West Virginia spokesperson" indicated Luck left early to attend a Rifle Team fundraiser scheduled for Wednesday evening, and not (as suggested by the Big East spokesperson) to attend to Dana Holgorsen's indiscretion. The WVU spokesperson went on to say the departure was not "unexpected", that Luck had never planned to attend the Wednesday morning meeting. I wonder what Texas Christian University Director of Intercollegiate Athletics Chris Del Conte thinks of the scheduling snafu. Perhaps, given his association with Pittsburgh Athletic Director Steve Pederson, he was given an early heads-up of the planned walk out.

Next?
The Wednesday morning agenda items, bowl payout update, the TV contract negotiations, state of the BCS and scheduling issues, have been pushed back to the conference's scheduled Football Media Days, August 1-2 in Newport, Rhode Island. With, according to Big East Commissioner John Marinatto, TV contract negotiations scheduled to expire after the 2013 season, the conference and ESPN have already initiated discussions. The move in turn has triggered a division in the schools, some of whom want to take the conference into the open market in an effort to use market forces to drive up the contract payout.

On Second Thought -- Plotting Trendlines for Big East Teams (pt 2)

Through the Middle Section of the Conference
While there is something appealing about taking the conference by quartiles -- Big East observers have only another year or two for that approach -- I decided to look at the teams in three parts, taking about five teams with each look. The decision was not random, as the trendlines for teams grouped in this way, highlights a number of common elements...similar records & progressions. As in "Second Thoughts: Part 1" I have highlighted those (six this time...) teams discussed in this post in the year-end conference standings:

	W	L	Pct.
Pittsburgh	15	3	0.833
Notre Dame	14	4	0.776
Syracuse	12	6	0.667
Louisville	12	6	0.667
St. John's	12	6	0.667
Cincinnati	11	7	0.611
West Virginia	11	7	0.611
Georgetown	10	8	0.556
Connecticut	9	9	0.500
Villanova	9	9	0.500
Marquette	9	9	0.500
Seton Hall	7	11	0.389
Rutgers	5	13	0.278
Providence	4	14	0.222
South Florida	3	15	0.167
Cincinnati	1	17	0.056

(T6 #6) Cincinnati

Multiple intersecting trendlines suggest...

Third order polynomial trendlines tend to resist wild gyrations, which makes them a good tool for identifying "long term" trends. Cincinnati's season, per the trendline, suggests a mild slump around games 5 through 12, and indeed the Bearcats' record through that seven game stretch was 3-4 (they finished 11-7 and secured the #6 seed in the BET). Coach Mick Cronin, possibly the conference's strongest hot seat candidate going into the season, secured his tenure (at least in the near term) with a team performance that exceeded preseason expectations. An especially strong 5-1 finish of the conference regular season featured wins over Louisville, Marquette and twice over Georgetown, NCAA invitees all. The lone loss through that run was Connecticut, the team which also eliminated Cincinnati in the second round of the NCAA Tournament (and went on to win the National Championship).

(T9 #9) Connecticut

Ahhh, A double helix, perhaps?

The Huskies offer one of the more interesting trendlines from the conference season. Like many teams that finished in this middle third of the conference. Connecticut's trendlines suggest a team that was "evolving" as the season progressed. What sets Connecticut's trendlines apart from the usual in season slump is the suggestion the source of the "pause" was defense. Note the adjusted offensive trendline shows no signs of regressing through the season. The Huskies were one of two squads whose offense (adjusted for the competition) appeared to improve (no regression) over the course of the season.

(8 #8) Georgetown

A curved double intersection like Cincinnati's, but...

The adjusted chart suggests Coach John Thompson's squad peaked around the time of the Villanova game (game 9 on the chart), and then declined through the end of the season. The Hoyas finishd the 2011 season on a four game losing streak that began with the last two games of the conference season and continued through the Wednesday round in the Big East Tournament, culminating with their second consecutive first round of the NCAA Tournament. Junior guard Chris Wright missed three of the games through that stretch, but the chart suggests the offense was in full decline well before Wright missed games. Note the second intersection in the chart, around game 14, was an eight point loss (70-78) to Connecticut. The Huskies also eliminated the Hoyas in New York City exactly three weeks later.

(T9 #11) Marquette

Slump & recovery...

The adjusted chart suggests a decline/slump through much of the season, as Coach Buzz Williams' program bottomed out around the Georgetown game (game #12), then began a slow rebound through the end of the regular season. The Golden Eagles did finish the regular season on a two game losing streak, one that may well have put their NCAA bid on a bubble going into New York City. Marquette rebounded nicely however, running to the Sweet Sixteen where they fell, 81-63, to North Carolina.

(T9 #10) Villanova

The season-long slump?

The season-long decline of the Wildcats' offensive efficiency is clearer in the adjusted efficiency chart. Many of my post game analysis pointed to defensive lapses (also indicated in the trendlines), but the chart hints strongly the offensive decline was persistent and steady throughout the conference season. Stepping back a bit, the decline, from just under 120 (118?) down to about 101, was dramatic for an 18 game stretch. Unlike other teams in this group, there was no rebound...

(T6 #7) West Virginia

No double intersection here either

The trendlines suggest that West Virginia's offensive slump was well timed. The Mountaineers' record from games three through nine was 6-1, with an eye popping 89.9 adjusted defensive efficiency that masked a 10% decline in offensive efficiency during that time period. Coach Bob Huggins' squad finished the conference regular season with an 11-7 conference record (tied for #6 with Cincinnati, earning the 'Eers a #7 seed for the Big East Tournament). West Virginia earned a #5 seed to the NCAA Tournament and lost in the second round to Final Four-bound Kentucky.