Guest Contributor: Pico Dulce -- St. John's Scouting Report

Pico Dulce of Rumble in the Garden blog ran off a scouting report on the Red Storm...

Starting Five & Rotation Notes
Dwight Hardy G 6'2" and listed at 195 (which I don't believe) - he has a lot of nicknames and takes a lot of shots for the Red Storm. He's become very accurate in the last month. You may heave heard something about him.

Paris Horne G 6'3" - an ace defender, and finally able to use his combination of athleticism - strength and speed, defensive agility and leaping ability - to help the team win in ways that don't show up on the scoreboard.

DJ Kennedy G/F 6'5" - a tenacious dirty-work player who will pick up rebounds and is a dangerous defender in the Red Storm's press and in transition defense.

Dwayne Polee II F 6'7" - a long freshman getting his feet wet with a number of starts, he has a developing jump shot.

The Red Storm go maybe 8 deep, with forwards Justin Burrell and Sean Evans logging time in the post, along with point guard Malik Boothe.

Justin Burrell is 6'8" and looks like a basketball player. Half the time, he plays like a basketball player; he's been motivated and focused recently, so his active brand of basketball - physical, strong, and liable to catch a Technical foul - will be on display.

Sean Evans, the Philly native, has re-blossomed into a bit of a low-post force. He's doing a lot more right now than he did in the previous 3 seasons, not breaking off of the offense to make dribble moves that go nowhere (I hope he was breaking off of the plan. If that was the plan, well...). Evans can bang in the paint and hold his space.

Malik Boothe is all of 5'9" but he has been a defensive sparkplug. No quarter asked, none given. He's happy to try and pull the ball right out of another players' hands, passes decently, and is much better at making an end-of-shot-clock jumper or drive than in the past.

Defense First
St. John's whole system is based off of their defensive pressure. It's not constant; they press off of made shots, generally, and the press tends to slow teams down a bit, restricting transition opportunities. At times, they will crank it up with Paris Horne and Malik Boothe guarding ballhandlers close; there will be traps around halfcourt at times. When the press is broken, there is often an open 3-pointer waiting to happen.

In the halfcourt, the Red Storm mostly play a matchup zone. Some games it looks better than others, and they give up a number of three-pointers in the zone - for periods of the game. Late in the game, they tend to better identify developing threats and mark them well. Even with the open threes, the zone is effective. The Red Storm spring traps in the corners to force turnovers or passes that lead to turnovers. The team reacts well in the zone, forcing cross-court passes that can get a little wild.

On Offense
On offense the team moves the ball up quickly to test the defense. Off of misses and of turnovers, DJ Kennedy will likely be in the middle, looking for a streaking Justin Brownlee or Paris Horne going to the basket; sometimes Kennedy's the recipient of those passes. Dwight Hardy is often guarded, and gets many of his points off of a screen-and-roll and a dribble. He's become awesome at attacking a little bit of daylight for a drive and layup/ foul or a mid-range jump shot.

His job as point guard is in name only; he gets to handle the ball because he's uniquely able to take advantage of small breakdowns in the defense. But his ability to attack draws defenders; he'll pass the ball off, and get it back when he's better able to attack his man.

Vulnerabilities & Conclusion
The Red Storm have been susceptible to size for much of the season; Justin Brownlee is less effective against bigger defenders, though he is using his offensive versatility more than in the past. But the team has trouble scoring on longer, taller teams like Cincinnati; expect them to have some struggles against Yarou and Pena if they can't coax those two out of the paint. The forwards have shown a willingness to pass out of trouble (and to rotate to places to accept passes when their teammates are in trouble), and they look more effective, even if the shots aren't falling. Justin Burrell has shown signs of being a creative post player once more, so there's a chance that he might be able to go to work on Villanova.

Overall, the Johnnies are playing smart, smart basketball. I don't think they'll win - but that's mainly because I'm a pessimist. The team is really clicking despite their weaknesses, and they've become a real joy to watch.

greyCat Notes...Pico is absolutely correct about his last point -- this Johnnies team has been fun to watch. I caught them at the Garden for the Notre Dame and Pittsburgh games this season and the team has taken a 180 degree turn from 2010 and earlier editions. This is a very dangerous St. John's team.

On Dwayne Polee -- when asked in the Pitt post game presser about next season's team, Coach Steve Lavin suggested that getting starts and minutes this season for Polee would pay dividends next season as he would be one of the experienced players the staff could rely on to bring next season's freshmen along.

Catch Pico's "5 Questions..." features with VUHoops.com (they discuss indispensable players, the bigs turnover problems and "Jay Wright to..." rumors) and Nova Blog (they explore confidence issues, Mo Sutton's suspensions, futures for Corey Fisher, etc.) over at Rumble in the Garden. Pico has also combined material from his "5 Questions for..." features with a scouting report I sent over yesterday and produced an entertaining breakdown of the Wildcats and Johnnies game tomorrow.

2010-11 Preview -- St. John's Red Storm

Too Busy for the Details?
Given much the same squad as the team entering the 2010 season, there is the temptation to simply cut and paste last season's preview, but this season there is something different...the coaching staff. Can Coach Lavin solve the 32 minute problem? For the past three seasons the Red Storm Nation has debated whether the stalled progress is due to the players (not Big East-level personnel) or the staff (not Big East-level personnel). This year we find out. I am betting it was the staff.  Prognosis -- A 2nd quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2011	2010	2009
%Min	89.5	93.4	64.2
%Pts	90.3	95.1	28.2
%FGM	90.8	96.7	57.7
%3FGM	92.1	97.9	26.1
%OReb	87.8	93.1	77.4
%DReb	87.5	95.2	72.4
%TReb	87.6	94.4	74.0

Coach Roberts brought in a very large freshmen class in the fall of 2007. While large entering classes were common in Queens during the Roberts Era, the class of 2011 was unusual; it stayed around (and was reasonably healthy) for more than one season. The staff added JUCOs Dwight Hardy and Justin Brownlee in 2009-10 and both return this season, giving head coach Steve Lavin a deep and experienced squad for his inaugural season.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2009-10		2008-09		2007-08
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Off Eff. Overall	106.2	98	100.9	181	98.0	215
eFG% Overall	47.3	238	46.2	284	45.8	313
FTA/FGA Overall	31.6	307	37.2	158	35.0	215
Pt. Dist. 3FGA Overall	25.7	207	18.7	330	25.3	256
3FGM% Overall	33.4	205	29.9	319	33.3	243
3FGA/2FGA Overall	29.5	251	24.4	328	29.0	289
Def Eff. Overall	92.8	51	96.5	77	93.2	50

The problem is not defense, as the Johnnies have consistently ranked in the top 20% nationally (or better -- see Def Eff. Overall above) in each of the past three seasons. Indeed, tough in-your-face defense was always a trademark of Norm Roberts' Red Storm squads. The offense is inside-oriented (see Pt. Dist. 3FGA in table above), though the inside/outside stat (Pomeroy's formula), at 2.13, would suggest something more balanced, a notion that is however, an illusion. Note the numbers for FTA/FGA Overall in the table above. "Inside play" almost always involves contact (and trips to the line). The Johnnies tooks a lot of 2 point field goal attempts, but they did not force the issue and get to the line from that offense. Defenses did not foul much because they knew what St. John's was going to do and when they would do it.

	For the Record...
	2009-10			2008-09			2007-08
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	17	16	0.515	16	18	0.471	11	19	0.367
Big East	6	12	0.333	6	12	0.333	5	13	0.278
Post Season?	NIT Rnd #1			CBI Rnd #1			NA

Last season's progress was typical of the Norm Roberts teams -- small and very measured. Though the rotation went 8-10 deep with players who logged two years together, the Red Storm could not escape the conference's fourth quartile.

The Red Storm's Nucleus
Coach Steve Lavin inherits an enigma in the form of a squad from Coach Roberts. Generally recognized as talented and tough (though Doug Gottlieb, ESPN's resident contrarian would disagree -- sorry subscription), the question is whether they are collectively talented enough and skilled enough to compete and win on most nights in the Big East. While many observers contend this cohort struggled with a very loose style of game management, others (like Gottlieb) suspect it might be the players...

On Offense
Player	Min%	ORtg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
D.J. Kennedy	77.4	110.4	25.8	23.5	52.3	6.2	1.15	49.0
Paris Horne	69.3	101.1	18.4	20.9	49.1	4.8	0.99	19.4
Malik Boothe	60.3	89.9	15.3	11.7	42.3	1.5	0.95	46.3
Sean Evans	51.9	95.4	21.1	20.0	46.0	14.2	0.95	34.5
Dwight Hardy	48.1	102.4	23.7	28.0	50.6	2.2	1.06	22.8
Justin Brownlee	44.4	106.3	20.3	23.6	47.8	9.9	1.00	15.3
Justin Burrell	41.4	100.5	19.4	19.2	47.4	6.6	1.04	35.9
Malik Stith	26.3	73.2	15.3	13.6	29.0	2.5	0.64	29.0
Dele Coker	18.7	99.1	11.3	9.7	62.9	8.9	1.14	37.1

Nearly half of the squad (Kennedy, Boothe, Horne, Coker, Evans and Burrell) begin their fourth season together. Though classified as seniors, Hardy and Brownlee transferred in last season (and counter to the trend, stayed), while red shirt sophomore Quincy Roberts and (true) sophomore Malik Stith log their second year in Queens. The offense is wing/front court oriented, with DJ Kennedy taking just over 25% of the possessions (and just under 24% of the shots) when he is on the court. He is also the most efficient player on the squad. Odd because the most prolific shooter often draws the most attention from the defense and tends to be less efficient than his "overlooked" teammates. As players entering their second season with the Red Storm, Justin Brownlee and Dwight Hardy can (potentially) develop larger roles. Hardy was often brought in specifically to shoot in 2010, a role that naturally drew defensive attention (and skewed his Shot% a bit higher than it probably would have been had he logged more time). The challenge for both will be to become even more efficient with their possessions/shots.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
D.J. Kennedy	77.4	16.3	21.5	18.6	2.2	2.2
Paris Horne	69.3	7.7	10.9	15.2	1.3	1.8
Malik Boothe	60.3	7.8	20.9	28.0	0.4	2.3
Sean Evans	51.9	17.9	6.3	18.6	1.4	1.7
Dwight Hardy	48.1	8.0	8.7	15.5	0.3	1.8
Justin Brownlee	44.4	18.1	10.7	12.6	3.9	2.3
Justin Burrell	41.4	19.2	8.6	18.6	2.5	1.1
Malik Stith	26.3	5.0	19.0	24.7	0.0	1.7
Dele Coker	18.7	12.6	2.3	23.5	10.1	2.2

The point guards, Malik Stith and Malik Boothe were remarkably inefficient. While neither was an effective scorer, the root cause was turnovers (see TO% above). Little wonder the two guards played so small a role in the offense for the past two seasons. Unfortunately this the staff has no fresh face to remediate this area in 2011.

Significant Additions
Dwayne Polee. See all those names in the table above? The 6-7, 193 pound forward out of Westchester HS, California is probably more athletic than most of the current front court rotation, but if he is not "Big East ready", will see only limited minutes this season. Check this space next pre-season -- Coach Lavin will have 10 roster spots to fill, and has garnered weekly write-ups this fall with 2011-12 signings.


Explode If...
1. The staff can teach the guards how to reduce turnovers and distribute the ball. If Boothe and Stith can (drastically) improve their shooting and reduce their turnovers, the offense would easily improve 7% or better with little change elsewhere.
2. Learn how to close out opponents. Using fresh offensive schemes will help initially. The trick will be to continue to diversify the offense, adding new elements as the season progresses.
3. The low post play improves. Sean Evans rebounds very well, but has not finished consistently (eFG% 46.0) and does not get to the line enough (FTR% -- FTA/FGA 34.5, in the low range for a bfc). Dele Coker have been practically invisible in the offense the past two seasons, as his Poss% in the table above suggests (about 12%), but his efficient shot conversion (eFG5 was 62.9; PPWS was 1.14) was sabotaged (offensive efficiency was 99.1) by a very high turnover rate (23.5).

Implode If...
While it is difficult to see how a group that has played together as much as this squad could implode, injuries have historically distracted the squad and sidelined the more efficient scorers and leaders at crucial times (Justin Burrell is sidelined 4-6 weeks to start this season). The fans and players are ready to see a much better result this season, let's hope they can weather any early disappointments/surprises.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
The Coach will make his debut on the road (versus the WCC's Saint Mary's), the price I guess, for one of the first slots in ESPN's Basketball Marathon (11/16 into 11/17), and probably the sternest test of the out of conference schedule (OOC) -- outside of Gaels no opponent is projected to finish higher than the middle of their respective conference -- before the Holiday Festival. The Johnnies will meet Davidson and possibly Northwestern in the Holiday Festival before opening the Big East season in Morgantown, WV. Running the OOC table is probably optimistic, but more than one loss would have to be a disappointment, as the Johnnies will have to rely on their conference schedule (late season meetings with Duke and UCLA excepted) for the numbers to put them in the conversation for an NCAA bid.

Of St. John's mirrors, (Cincinnati, Georgetown and Notre Dame), the Hoyas are expected to dominate (though a front court matchup with Julian Vaughn and Sean Evans might be interesting), but the Bearcats and Irish will compete for a spot in the second quartile. The Red Storm will have to beat them to gain advantage in a tie-breaker. The first six games will be crucial, typical of a zero-tolerance Big East schedule. After West Virginia, the Johnnies play Providence (A), Georgetown (H), Notre Dame (A), Syracuse (H) and their closeout with Notre Dame (H). 3-3 would be good, fewer than two wins would be very bad for their chances of finishing out in the upper division. While two of the projected top teams are lodged in the last five games, a motivated St. John's squad should be able to go no worse than 2-3 (but hopefully 3-2 or better) against that slate (Pittsburgh, DePaul and South Florida at home, Villanova and Seton Hall on the road).

Preview 2009-10 -- St. John's Red Storm

Too Busy for the Details?
The Johnnies return 93% of their minutes. They return all 5 starters. They bring in 2 JUCOs, 2 High Schoolers who could be missing pieces, and they bring back a red shirt 5th year senior. They also bring back an accumulated 25 losses in the last 2 season of Big East play, balanced against 11 wins. The losses, it seems, may have made a stronger impression so far. Back in 2007 the Red Storm was climbing out of the crater left by Mike Jarvis' 2004 meltdown, but Norm Robert's program lost ground in 2008 as Roberts, with the passing of a modest but productive class, had to integrate a small battalion of players, with candidates at virtually every position. The freshmen of 2008 are juniors in 2010. The direction of wins is favorable, the preponderance of returning minutes, scoring and rebounding are all favorable. In every season it seems that (at least) one program takes a big, 8 or so standing jump. Will St. John's be the program that takes the Big Jump, or one that makes another small, but positive adjustment? Prognosis -- A 3rd quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2010	2009	2008
%Min	93.4	64.2	43.6
%Pts	97.1	55.7	39.5
%FGM	96.7	57.7	39.2
%3FGM	97.9	26.1	47.9
%OReb	93.1	77.4	38.6
%DReb	95.2	72.4	42.3
%TReb	94.4	74.0	41.2

Backsliding with the decline of minutes (changeover of players) is fairly common in all but deep, stable elite programs. The 6 game swing downward swing (2 fewer wins, 4 more losses as the Big East added two more games to the conference schedule) in 2008 is troubling. 2009 produced a modest 2 game swing (+1 win, -1 loss). The very high percentage in returning minutes, points and rebounds suggest St. John's will improve -- the question is how large a swing will this class of juniors produce?

	According to Pomeroy...
	2008-09		2007-08		2006-07
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Overall ORtg	100.9	181	98.0	215	103.0	150
Overall DRtg	96.5	77	93.2	50	95.2	74
Big East ORtg	94.3	13	90.1	15	92.9	13
Big East DRtg	105.2	9	102.2	8	101.5	11
Four Factors -- Overall
All Off. eFG%	46.2	284	45.8	313	47.4	259
All Off. TOv%	21.8	251	22.6	266	21.5	185
All Off. OReb%	37.9	27	33.2	155	32.1	219
All Off. FTA/FGA	37.2	158	35.0	215	34.5	211
All Def. eFG%	50.2	220	49.5	151	47.1	57
All Def. TOv%	20.6	146	21.7	135	19.9	235
All Def. OReb%	32.0	137	31.6	111	35.6	269
All Def. FTA/FGA	35.5	155	40.3	248	33.1	97
Four Factors -- Big East Only
BE Off. eFG%	44.9	14	44.1	16	45.7	14
BE Off. TOv%	22.4	15	22.7	16	20.6	11
BE Off. OReb%	37.3	4	31.8	12	30.8	14
BE Off. FTA/FGA	36.8	5	37.3	9	27.2	16
BE Def. eFG%	53.3	15	52.6	15	49.9	13
BE Def. TOv%	19.7	7	21.0	4	18.5	11
BE Def. OReb%	31.0	2	28.5	1	33.2	7
BE Def. FTA/FGA	34.6	9	39.0	10	31.6	6
Miscellanious
All Gms Cons	26.1	336	21.5	212	25.4	320
All Gms Luck	-.008	160	-.022	197	+.030	77

Not obvious from the Offensive/Defensive Efficiency tables (above -- Big East games only) is the large gap between the #12 ranked Hoyas (101.4) and the #13 ranked Johnnies (94.3). That -7.1 (points per 100 possessions) forms a chasm between the #1 - #12 ranked teams and those ranked #13 - #16, suggesting there was quite a separation between teams in the upper 3 quartiles and those in the 4th quartile. While the Johnnies have made modest year-over-year improvement in their offensive efficiency, they continue to function well below the conference average, especially eFG% and TOv%. Red Storm players had problems converting possessions into points -- they lose the ball a lot but even when they shoot, chances are less than 50% that it will produce points. Strong ratings in rebounding (the silver lining...they do get relatively more 2nd chance opportunities than their Big East counterparts) and getting to the free throw line (suggests a good part of their offense comes in the paint) are overwhelmed when balanced against shooting and turnovers. Middle of the conference defensive rankings for forcing turnovers (TOv%) and rebounding (OReb%) were undermined by terrible shot defense. Compounding the their shot defense woes, Red Storm players tended to foul as well -- a symptom of "late to the shooter" shot defense? Red Storm opponents may have had relatively fewer 2nd chance scoring opportunities, but since they converted at an effective rate >50%, the value of the Johnnies' defensive rebounding was somewhat diminished.

	For the Record...
	2008-09			2007-08			2006-07
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	16	18	0.471	11	19	0.367	16	15	0.516
Big East	6	12	0.333	5	13	0.278	7	9	0.438
Post Season?	CBI/Rnd 1			No			BET/Rnd 1

The Johnnies' Nucleus
Coach Roberts will have another season to work with the colossal class he brought in back in 2007. Though he lost 2 players from 2008, neither was a starter/critical member of the Johnnies 2009 rotation. The question is how much progress will this group of players make during the season, and whether, from among the returning bench/rotation players or the newcomers, he will find the players who can address some of St. John's historical weaknesses.

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
D.J. Kennedy	86.2	106.1	21.2	20.1	45.6	5.5	1.05	56.2
Paris Horne	83.7	105.8	21.8	25.9	50.8	4.8	1.05	20.9
Sean Evans	68.6	96.7	21.9	21.1	51.4	11.7	1.04	44.6
Malik Boothe	61.8	81.8	17.0	13.9	37.6	2.2	0.84	34.5
Justin Burrell	60.4	90.5	21.3	19.9	45.9	5.4	1.00	50.6
Q Roberts	47.2	85.3	17.9	18.3	41.3	4.1	0.90	22.3
Rob Thomas	28.9	108.8	23.0	25.4	51.1	16.0	1.04	42.6
Dele Coker	22.7	85.4	16.4	14.9	46.2	9.1	0.99	26.2

Additional offensive "output" has to come either from the players who dressed last season (or for Mason, the season before), or from new players. Looking at the veterans, improvement/growth from Quincy Roberts will come anyway. Kennedy, Evans, Burrell will have to become more efficient even as they become more prolific. If Coker, Boothe, Burrell and Roberts cut down on turnovers, each would improve his offensive efficiency. The team could use an accomplished point guard. A pretty tall task, not impossible, but difficult.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Kennedy	86.2	16.9	17.7	17.4	1.3	2.6
Horne	83.7	6.3	14.1	16.2	1.6	2.8
Evans	68.6	17.6	5.0	20.3	1.1	2.2
Boothe	61.8	8.6	24.7	31.0	0.3	2.7
Burrell	60.4	15.0	6.4	23.7	3.2	0.8
Roberts	47.2	11.1	11.0	26.3	0.5	1.8
Thomas	28.9	13.0	1.8	10.5	2.4	2.0
Coker	22.7	16.1	4.5	30.3	1.7	10.9

Kennedy, Evans and Coker form a good corps of defensive rebounders, even if there is no dominant defensive rebounder. Coker has a noticibly good block percentage, but is hampered with a 30% turnover rate. He gives away 3 of every 10 possessions he gets.

Significant Additions
Coach Roberts brings in only 4 recruits this season, a departure from past practice when the staff brought in jumbo recruiting classes only to turn out 2 - 4 players the next off season. Hopefully with a bit more discrimination at the front end of the process that practice will stop. The incoming class numbers 2 JUCOs and 2 true freshmen. Between the JUCOs, 6-2 #2 guard Dwight Hardy out of Indian Hills CC in Iowa will most likely get early and often minutes. Hardy hit 3s at a 45.3% clip while playing at Indian Hills, so he will bring some much needed outside shooting to Queens. Although the Johnnies return 93% of their 3FGMs from last season, this was a problem area for their offense. Hardy will help. 6-7 #3 Justin Brownlee joins a crowded wing contengient, and will compete with Evans, Kennedy and Mason for minutes. Between the freshmen, 5-11 point guard Malik Stith might get the early look. Most scouting services did not see much upside to Stith's game, and St. John's aside, most of the DI interest came from mid-majors (Tulsa, George Mason and Winthrop). But observers are nearly unanimous that Stith has an exceptional handle, and is very mobile with the ball in his hands. Turnovers are an area of concern (especially with the Johnnies' pg of record, Malik Boothe), and Stith may be able to address that problem. He will most likely back up Boothe at the point. 6-4 #2 guard Omari Lawrence injured his shoulder severely in the summer of 2008 and having to take time for surgery and rehabilitation, was off the AAU circuit at that (for him and the other members of the Class of 2009) critical time. A heavier (and stronger) Lawrence scraped off the rust for last winter's High School season. Lawrence will have to find his place in an off guard rotation that will include 2009 starter Paris Horne (a junior), JUCO Dwight Hardy and sophomore Quincy Roberts.

Explode If...
1. Coach Roberts finds a healthy and reliable point guard. Malik Boothe was having a rough season when he went out with an injury. Who knows, had he remained healthy he may have worked through the problems by the end season. Roberts, Horne and Edmonson all had their turns and problems. Wing DJ Kennedy functioned as a make shift point forward, leading the team in assists by season's end. Although St. John's is offense-challenged, finding a reliable ball handler who can run the offense and distribute the ball well would allow the staff to overlook a lack of point production.
2. One (or better two or more) of Quincy Roberts, Paris Horne, Dwight Hardy or Omari Lawrence (or Anthony Mason) provides consistent offense from beyond the arc. The Johnnies took 24.2% of their FGAs (Big East games only) from beyond 20-9 last season, possibly the lowest of any team not named Connecticut. There was a reason...they connected on only 30.9% of the 3s they took. A more consistent threat from outside will also make interior scoring easier.
3. The team cuts down (significantly) on their turnovers. While Boothe was the principal culpret, the front court (Burrell, Evans and Coker in particular) had high individual turnover rates. Fewer turnovers translate into more opportunities to shoot.

Implode If...
The team has problems with turnovers and outside shooting. These are weaknesses, not fatal flaws, so St. John's may pick up another win or so relative to the conference even if the current roster fails to address them. The nucleus of this team has gone through the conference wars together two years running -- chemistry should not be an issue now. Short of a catastrophic series of injuries or external disruptions, the team's floor should be no worse than a loss over last season. But these guys should be able to move up this season.


Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
With match-ups against Siena (MAAC champion, NCAA participant) and Temple (A10 champion, NCAA participant) in the Philly Hoop Group Classic, followed by a road trip to Duke and a face-off against Georgia in the Big East-SEC Challenge, Johnnies fans will have a pretty good idea whether this St. John's team will compete in the Big East this season. Going 4-0 through that competition is not realistic (but a real confidence booster should it come to pass), but 3-1 would be a clear indication the Red Storm is ready to move up in the conference. Even a competitive 2-2 would mean progess over last season.

If the Johnnies are to move up, the first 5 conference games pose an excellent opportunity to set out boundaries. After opening on the road at Georgetown, St. John's returns home to host Providence, then on the road again to Connecticut, and a homeward swing for two games -- against Cincinnati and DePaul. The road games might be tough, but the home stands opponents are beatable (Cincinnati also wants to make a statement -- this could be a bellweather game for both programs). 3-2 or even 2-3 would be a promising beginning to the season. Moving up means holding at home while taking a few road games, so the Johnnies' next two road opponents, Pittsburgh and Rutgers, coming at near-mid season present possibly the best chance to determine if the Red Storm is indeed ready to move into the middle of the pack. The February home games, especially those against Seton Hall (2/17), Marquette (2/24) and Pittsburgh (a return date 2/27), are crucial to the Johnnies prospects, as all three will be direct competitors for the mid-conference seeds. Seton Hall, like St. John's, most likely will be nurturing aspirations at a 2nd quartile seed, so stakes hanging on the outcome of the February 17 game may be higher than a single win. The late season road games at South Florida (2/20) and DePaul (3/5) are also winnable, and could well solidify an upward move. If St. John's is looking for 8 - 10 wins, they will most likely have to go 4-2 at worst through their last 6 games.

Oh Canada! After the Storm

Rolling Through Ottawa
As I noted at the end of the UQAM post Sunday morning, the Johnnies hung a 17 point win on the Carleton Univesity Ravens, possibly the high point of their Canadian Excursion. The Ravens, rebuilding from the loss of Aaron Doornekamp (who played for the Canadian National Team before heading off to Italy to begin his professional career), looked to a few of their younger players to fill the void left by Dornekamp. After trailing by 4 at half-time, the Red Storm blew past the Ravins in the first 5½ minutes of the 2nd half, and never looked back. The efficiency stats for the team...

							FTA
Team	Pace	eFG%	ORtg	PPWS	OR%	TO%	FGA	Ast%	Stl%
St. John's	60.5	53.7	117.3	1.14	18.5	5.0	31.5	36.0	8.2
Carleton	60.5	45.6	89.2	1.01	25.0	21.5	40.0	55.6	3.3

In a game whose pace was the most "DI like" of the quartet, the Johnnies put on one of their better offensive performances. Reflecting the level of their competition, St. John's defensive numbers were the worst of the trip. Each team negated the others offensive rebounding, neither team had many 2nd chance opportunities. By comparison though, the Johnnies did get the worse of the deal, grabbing a very slight 18.5% of their misses. The disadvantage went unnoticed because the Red Storm shot so well...

Nicks & Dings...Or Weary Legs?
The evening tilt against the Ottawa University Gee Gees, while counted as a win, was less impressive. Ottawa University, typically the bridesmaid to Carleton's domination in the CIS post season tournament, put up a surprisingly strong effort as they took the Red Storm down to (literally) the last seconds before bowing by a single point, 74-73. The efficiency stats suggest this was a loosely played game between two up tempo clubs, each of whom managed to lose over 20% of their possessions (Gee Gees -- 27.9%, Red Storm -- 22.6%)...

							FTA
Team	Pace	ORtg	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	TO%	FGA	Ast%	Stl%
St. John's	74.4	99.4	53.6	1.12	37.9	22.8	37.5	50.0	17.3
Ottawa	74.4	98.1	51.9	1.12	25.0	28.2	49.1	54.2	9.3

Comparing St. John's eFG% and PPWS in the two games and I found a surprisingly consistent accuracy (even the FTA/FGA suggests the same level of "aggression" on offense/defense between the two games). The biggest difference was turnover rates -- versus the Ravens the Johnnies lost 5% of their possessions, while versus the Gee Gees the Johnnies lost a disappointing 22.8%. Their turnovers nearly negated their shooting. St. John's steals (17.3%) was due in large measure to Malik Boothe and Justin Brownlee, who combined for 9 steals. Coach Roberts went with a short rotation, using only 8 players (all of whom played double digit minutes). His starters (Boothe, Brownlee, Evans, Horne and Kennedy) combined to play 71.3% of the minutes, extremely high for an exhibition game. The staff decided to leave Anthony Mason Jr. behind due to a minor injury, and that decision seemed to set the tone for the trip. Justin Burrell played only 8 minutes in the 1st game (versus McGill), while Quincy Roberts, after logging 20 minutes versus McGill, received only 9 minutes in the UQAM game and did not appear in either of the Sunday games (and was also rumored to be slightly injured). Rob Thomas and Kevin Clark, both (deep) bench players did not see the floor versus the Gee Gees, despite logging minutes versus Carleton, UQAM and McGill.

Summing Up the Players
I have compiled the efficiency stats for those who logged any time in the 4 game tour...

									FTA
Player	%Min	%Poss	ORtg	PPWS	eFG%	OR%	TO%	Ast%	FGA	DR%	Blk%	Stl%
Boothe	49.2	20.9	93.6	1.18	53.3	3.6	26.0	16.0	93.3	5.1	0.0	5.4
Brownlee	52.3	22.8	100.4	1.25	62.1	5.1	16.8	6.9	17.2	17.7	6.6	4.5
Burrell	19.7	40.8	118.4	1.80	100.0	9.0	33.2	0.0	25.0	4.3	0.0	0.0
Clark	3.7	16.2	89.8	1.00	50.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Evans	48.6	28.3	103.0	1.27	63.3	14.6	19.4	9.9	23.3	32.9	1.4	2.8
Hardy	69.7	19.1	107.6	1.30	64.5	1.3	10.0	3.8	7.9	2.4	0.0	1.9
Horne	69.1	20.6	118.1	1.33	61.8	9.0	9.4	7.4	29.4	14.6	3.0	4.4
Kennedy	66.0	29.6	100.7	1.13	52.3	12.1	12.0	10.9	39.5	25.5	5.3	1.5
Lawrence	47.9	19.7	84.0	0.91	40.0	5.5	14.1	9.9	35.0	22.8	1.4	4.2
Roberts	36.0	19.7	95.6	1.10	55.0	0.0	9.4	4.3	0.0	2.3	0.0	3.7
Stith	59.8	16.0	97.8	0.99	41.7	4.4	10.5	12.7	66.7	8.4	0.0	1.7
Thomas	10.6	16.5	138.5	1.80	90.0	0.0	19.1	9.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Granted 4 games (about 160 minutes of playing time per player) is a very small sample from which to draw conclusions. Efficiencies for players logging < 10% of the playing time is even dicier. Take those numbers with an even bigger grain of salt than the others. The four game mix does however, provide an opportunity to see (I caught the streaming video from Carleton Sunday. It was wonderful to see a college basketball game over Labor Day...) the team and review the numbers. A few things occur to me as I look over the box scores and the spreadsheets.
1. The true freshmen are well, true freshmen. Stith and Lawrence had PPWSs =<0.99 and ORtgs in the range of the mid 80s (Lawrence) to the mid 90s (Stith), very typical of freshmen. They will be good players in time, but I doubt they will be game-changers, or players that will have an immediate impact on St. John's play.
2. The JUCOs hung with the veterans, which is a good sign. When I read that Justin Brownlee, a forward out of Chipola College in Florida had committed to St. John's my first question was "Where is this guy going to get time?". The team has a serious supply of forwards. Brownlee fit in. With the limited time he still managed to produce points fairly efficiently. The same holds for off guard Dwight Hardy, who will provide another outside threat to compliment junior Paris Horne. Though Hardy seems to be a bit shy when it comes to contact (see his FTA/FGA), his shooting efficiency was 2nd to Horne, as he converted 38.9% of his 3FGAs on his way to scoring 51 points (tied for 2nd on the team with Horne, behind DJ Kennedy). With an In/Out rating of -39.5, he was the "most outside" player on the team, among those who logged 20% or more of the playing time. Horne by the way, had a very good run over the weekend too. Tied with Hardy with 51 points, he shot an outstanding 42.9% from beyond the arc, making him the 3rd most effective shooter on the team, behind Evans and Hardy. Outside scoring was a significant shortcoming for the Johnnies' offense in 2009, the Horne/Hardy tandem, if as effective during the season as they were in Canada, could make a big difference for opposing defenses.
3. Malik Boothe is still his own worst enemy. The junior point guard had an eFG% of 53.3, along with a PPWS of 1.18, among the best on the team. But his ORtg was still below 100 because his turnover rate was an abysmal 26.0%, extremely high for a point guard. Boothe offered a mixed bag of numbers -- very good shooting, tops on the team for Stl%, abysmal turnover rate and a too modest 16% assist rate -- which may well make rotation decisions difficult during the regular season. Malik Stith, the freshman pg, offered less effective shooting numbers (translated into a modest eFG% and PPWS), but assisted at about the same rate as Boothe, but with a smaller turnover rate.
4. Kennedy & Evans continue to be the best rebounders on the team. Burrell logged too few minutes for accurate measure, but Evans and Kennedy continued where they left off last season. On the defensive boards, the newcomers Brownlee and Lawrence proved to be credible rebounders. The Carleton game was unusual for St. John's in that it was the only time on the Canadian Tour, and only 11 times (out of 34 games)last season that the Johnnies were outrebounded. Especially interesting given the Ravens had lost Doornekamp, their big rebounder.

Caveat Emptor!
The Canadian Junket offers many positives, no wonder the NCAA banned them. Aside from giving the team an excuse to conduct full practices in late August (an especially bad time for pickup game injuries), the northern tours allow teams to travel relatively cheaply as they play other, collegiate-level (admittedly largely -- but not exclusively -- DII level) competition under the supervision of their college coaches. The Canadians have a chance to compete with some outstanding American programs, and both sides learn and benefit from the early exchange. The strongest new players to emerge on the Villanova team when they took their Canadian Tour in the 2007-08 season were (true) freshmen Malcolm Grant and Corey Stokes. From Stokes it was expected, but Grant was a surprise of sorts. The 3rd freshman guard, Corey Fisher, struggled very publicly during the tour. Stokes appeared completely lost in a number of early season games, saw his minutes diminished while he regained his focus. Grant, after a handful of early season heroics, faded to the bench, and received virtually no minutes during the Wildcat's season ending run to the Sweet Sixteen. Corey Fisher's time slowly grew during the season, and by March it was he, not Grant, who drew the rotation minutes during the NCAA run.

Oh Canada! St. John's Sweeps Through Montreal

Red Storm Takes a Heady Nightcap
After beating the McGill University Redmen 90-55 in the afternoon, the Red Storm swept across the city of Montreal to dismantle the Citadins of Le Universite de Quebec a Montreal (the Urbans of UQAM) 104-62, in an evening matchup. The games were played in quarters of 10 minutes each and the Johnnies won each quarter, often by a healthy margin. Unlike their afternoon tilt against McGill, the Red Storm pushed right ahead right out of the gate, scoring 27 points in the first 10 minutes to take an 11 point lead at the 1st break. They padded that margin by another 11 points in the 2nd quarter to take a lead of 22 points, 55-33 into the locker room at the intermission. The Urbans rallied in the 3rd quarter to stem the runaway margin, but still lost the quarter by a point. And the Johnnies closed out the affair by trouncing the Urbans by a whopping 19 point margin in the 4th quarter. The final damage, a winning margin of +42. Coach Roberts started transfers Justin Brownlee and Dwight Hardy, alongside the freshmen Omari Lawrence and Malik Stith. Junior Sean Evans took the 5th starter spot (he came off the bench against McGill in the afternoon game). Like the afternoon tilt, the staff went eleven deep into the bench (Justin Burrell sat), giving eight players double digit minutes (consistent with an exhibition game against, say, a DII opponent). After going through box score posted on the St. John's web site all I can say is if, as I suggested in the earlier post, the UQAM team was the better competition in the Montreal swing, then the Johnnies "played up" to the competition...

						FTA
Team	Pace	ORtg	eFG%	OR%	TOV	FGA	Ast%	Stl%	PPWS
St. John's	80.1	129.8	63.4	41.4	16.2	32.4	54.8	6.2	1.27
UQAM	80.1	77.4	40.9	34.3	27.5	47.3	70.0	13.7	0.92

This was not quite the street ball pace of the afternoon game, and the team's offensive & defensive ratings appear to reflect a more structured approach to the offense and defense. St. John's, as they did versus McGill, maintained the dominent edge on the defensive boards, but against the Urbans, they also presented a strong presence on the offensive boards. The Johnnies' eFG% (63.4) was outstanding, reflecting a much better conversion rate from beyond the arc (46.2%). Several players (notably DJ Kennedy -- see below) contributed to the strong showing on the offensive boards. As for the players' stats...

						FTA
Players	Min%	Poss%	Shot%	ORtg	eFG%	FGA	OR%	DR%	PPWS
Hardy	70.0	21.4	28.2	156.4	64.3	21.4	0.0	0.0	1.30
Evans	62.5	20.3	18.0	157.5	87.5	62.5	16.6	27.4	1.64
Horne	62.5	13.5	15.8	208.9	107.1	0.0	5.5	13.7	2.14
Stith	57.5	15.1	12.2	40.5	20.0	40.0	6.0	5.0	0.50
Brownlee	55.0	17.4	20.5	171.9	87.5	12.5	6.3	20.8	1.65
Kennedy	55.0	37.8	35.9	101.5	53.6	35.7	25.1	10.4	1.10
Lawrence	55.0	18.9	15.4	56.6	16.7	66.7	6.3	36.4	0.63
Boothe	42.5	23.2	13.3	71.6	50.0	75.0	8.1	0.0	1.11
Roberts	22.5	12.9	18.8	81.0	33.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.67
Thomas	12.5	6.9	11.3	270.3	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.00
Clark	5.0	17.4	28.2	270.3	100.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.00

The offensive fireworks produced a number of distorted Offensive Ratings and PPWS's. Dwight Hardy and DJ Kennedy powered the offense, posting some outstanding numbers (note their ORtgs and eFG%s). Lawrence, Boothe and Evans got to the virtually at will, getting to the line more and once per 2 field goal attempts. For Boothe it was a 3 for 4 exhange, suggesting the Urbans might have had problems with his speed. Brownlee and Evans were not as prolific, but clearly Quebec had problems containing them (note their outstanding eFG%'s).

The Johnnies are trailing the Carleton Ravens by 4 at the half in a much tougher game than Saturday. The Ravens will be the best opponent they face on the tour.

Carleton Update -- Post Game
In what is their most impressive win of the tour so far, the Johnnies beat the Ravens by 17, 71-54, storming back from a 4 point half time deficit, they outscored the Raven by 21 in the 2nd half.

Rising Juniors -- 10 to Watch

After the Rush
Looking at the rising juniors makes me a bit nervous. How many times am I going to have to write "X" is going to have a breakout season...this time...honest before he actually does? Like other "10 to Watch" postings, I am not going to note the 1st or 2nd All Big East Teamers, I want to look at the guys who have fair-to-good (or better) scoring efficiencies, but are stuck in the "role player" category. They might be on the threshold of a breakout (or more likely solid starter/regular-level) season. The suddenly a stud player doesn't develop every season. Particularly for the four year players, just making progress every season can spell "star" status by the senior season. Villanova's Dante Cunningham is a great example of the constantly progressing player who was good coming in, but became great by his senior season. I am not going to include transfers/JUCOs who enter with upper classmen status (I covered a few of them in a previous post), but rather will look only at those players who have 1-2 Big East seasons under their belts.

On Offense...
Player	Team	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTR%
Butler	MU	48.9	131.2	14.1	10.8	51.4	1.22	12.7	104.7
Stokes	Nova	56.9	115.3	17.5	21.5	55.2	1.18	3.1	24.6
Freeman	GTown	72.5	115.2	19.5	21.7	53.4	1.15	5.2	41.0
Knowles	Ville	41.7	112.9	16.9	21.0	56.3	1.12	5.3	9.9
Brooks	PC	52.5	107.9	22.9	26.4	50.9	1.07	7.0	28.3
Jackson	Cuse	53.4	107.2	18.5	18.3	62.3	1.21	11.0	34.5
Kennedy	John's	86.2	106.1	21.2	20.1	45.6	1.05	5.5	56.2
Wanamaker	Pitt	47.4	103.8	18.0	13.9	54.2	1.18	2.2	49.7
Koshwal	DPU	77.7	100.0	23.5	20.0	52.7	1.08	12.2	45.0
Evans	John's	68.6	96.7	21.9	21.1	51.4	1.04	11.7	44.6

By all accounts Jimmy Butler will pick up more time and possessions. Pomeroy's growth curve suggests the window (to 95% confidence) should be just shy of 20% of possessions next season (or down to about 10%, which would suggest he was benched in favor of someone else...). Butler helped himself with good offensive rebounding (how many of his FGMs were putbacks?) and benefited from playing in a rotation with 4 others who no doubt drew much more defensive attention than he. Like Butler, Louisville's Preston Knowles and Villanova's Corey Stokes start on the low side (16.9 and 17.5 respectively) for possessions, but each is extremely efficient (see their ORtgs) and has an upper edge in their "growth windows" of around 24%. And given the attrition suffered by Louisville and Villanove, each should have an opportunity to get more possessions (and shots).

On Defense...
Player	Team	%Min	%Ast	TO%	%Blk	%Stls	DR%
Jimmy Butler	MU	48.9	6.6	10.0	2.5	1.4	10.8
Corey Stokes	Nova	56.9	8.2	15.0	1.4	1.7	13.6
Austin Freeman	GTown	72.5	14.6	13.9	0.6	1.8	11.3
Preston Knowles	Ville	41.7	10.8	13.8	0.5	3.3	8.2
Marshon Brooks	PC	52.5	12.5	15.0	3.1	2.6	10.9
Rick Jackson	Cuse	53.4	7.9	21.6	7.3	2.3	16.9
D.J. Kennedy	John's	86.2	17.7	17.4	1.3	2.6	16.9
Brad Wanamaker	Pitt	47.4	18.0	29.1	1.3	2.4	17.0
Mac Koshwal	DPU	77.7	12.7	21.5	1.4	2.5	20.8
Sean Evans	John's	68.6	5.0	20.3	1.1	2.2	17.6

UConn big men typically take most of the oxygen out of a discussion of Big East shot blockers. Next season may be Rick Jackson's (and Syracuse's) turn. Brad Wanamaker's %Shot is light (13.9), suggesting he was way down on the priority list in the team's offensive scheme, but he did log 47.4% of the minutes at a guard/forward spot and had a relatively efficient 103.8 ORtg, with a shooting efficiency of 54.2...way too high actually, given his offensive rating. If Wanamaker gets his turnovers under control he will contribute in 2010. With the loss of Blair, Fields and Young, there will be chances for Wanamaker to shoot and score. Given his assist rate, steal rate and (especially) defensive rebounding, Wanamaker is too useful in too many wing spots to leave on the bench. With the loss of Dar Tucker, DePaul's Mac Koshwal will get a lot of touches next season as the Blue Demons will look around for scorers to pick up Tucker's %Poss and %Shot. Koshwal is already among the best in the conference for his rebounding, offensive and defensive. Ready or not he will have to take a larger than 20.0% role (a "major contributor" according to Ken Pomeroy's DePaul Team Report) for scoring too next seaon.

And Then There's...
Jeremy Hazell (All Big East 3rd Team), Dominique Jones (All Big East Honorable Mention) and Corey Fisher (All Big East 6th Man) drew honors last season and will have some visibility (and expectations) going into next season. I struggled with the last three or four spots on the list, leaving off Paris Horne (St. John's), Dion Dixon (Cincinnati) and Antonio Pena (Villanova) in favor of Sean Evans (St. John's), Jimmy Butler (Marquette), Brad Wanamaker (Pittsburgh) and Preston Knowles (Louisville). I am operating under the assumption that incoming recruit Lance Stephenson will clear the NCAA (academics and amateur status) and displace Dixon, if not 5 minutes into Fall practice, then earlier. Given the Villanova staff's preference for playing upper classmen over freshmen, Pena ought to get a long look at #4/#5, as Yarou gets up to speed.

Why?...
The St. John's rising junior cohort -- there are six players total among the 22 (rising juniors) I began with -- is well balanced. They share the ball and shooting responsibilities pretty well, with possessions ranging from 23 (Rob Thomas) down to 17 (Malik Boothe), 4 had right around 20% of the possessions. The shot distribution is wider (25.9 down to 13.9), but again there are 4 who take about 20% of the shots when they are on the floor -- balanced enough to make defense a headache. I included DJ Kennedy and Sean Evans in my Ten to Watch. Paris Horne took 26% of the shots in 2009 when he was on the floor. Lack of other options, may have been one reason for his prolific shooting, though his ability to hit 51% of his FGAs inside the arc was most likely the other. If Horne can significantly improve on his 33% conversion rate from beyond the arc (while maintaining his 26% share of the shooting), he will make one of the All-Big East (not to mention my ooops list) teams next March. As of now however I am looking for candidates on the Red Storm squad who are most likely to "grow" their role in the offense, and Horne already takes a large share of it. Justin Burrell and Malik Boothe share a few of the same problems. They both logged a good number of minutes, but each has problems converting their FGAs into FGMs. Combined with high turnover rates (23.7 & 31.8 respectively -- see Pomeroy's St. John's Team Report), that leaves each with low (<100.0) offensive ratings (ORtg). For Burrell there is the additional problem of playing in the low post. St. John's under Norm Roberts has become known for physical play in the paint, and Burrell, with 4.7 fouls per 40 minutes (which goes with his 4.7 fouled per 40 minutes), continues the tradition. Villanova's Dante Cunningham had problems with being effective until he managed to control his fouling problem. The same may hold for Burrell. The "other forward" playing in tandem with Burrell, Sean Evans, made my list largely because he logged better numbers than Burrell. Whether shot efficiency, rebounding, even fouling, Evans posted more efficient numbers. Opponents may foul him less next season if he makes his free throws more consistently (51% is terrible, and very correctable). And if those opponents are less inclined to foul, Evans may convert more of his FGAs. Rob Thomas is the last of the Johnnies I considered. His numbers are good (%Poss -- 23.0; %Shot -- 25.4; ORtg -- 108.8; eFG% -- 51.1), but his minutes are low, especially relative to the other St. John's players in the rotation. Thomas, coming off a red shirt freshman season, logged far more minutes in 2009 than he did in 2008. He will get more in 2010. His numbers, very promising at 28.9% of the time at his position, will will really help the Johnnies if they stand up when his PT is doubled. Dele Coker, St. John's 7th rising junior, logged a modest 22.7% of the playing time at the #5. If the Burrell-Evans tandem continues to improve, Coker may see even less time next season.