Preview -- West Virginia

Off Script...
#8 Villanova hosts West Virginia University Saturday at noon in a game that will decide who keeps pace with Pittsburgh (at the top of the Big East standings) and Notre Dame, currently the sole #2 in the conference. Both teams have taken circuitous routes to this place. The Wildcats thought they would go nine (at least) deep with their blue ribbon sophomore class progressing nicely, but pushed by their two freshmen recruits, James Bell and JayVaughn Pinkston. Bell, feared at one point to lose the season, has rehabbed and gets a few minutes each game. Pinkston, out on discipline issues, should rejoin the team next season. The Sophomore Progress Report is mixed, with the jury still out on several well regarded players. For West Virginia, the major action has been off the court. ...

Common Opponents...
...Conference opponents only for common foes, as the two teams run in different D1 "circles". Villanova fills a large part of it's OOC dance card with Philadelphia teams (the Big 5), while West Virginia has similar local rivals centered in the greater Pittsburgh metro area (Robert Morris, Duquesne). Of their conference opponents, good luck trying to decypher what has gone on before. +30 versus Providence? -15 on the road?! That both teams sport a 4-2 record against that common slate is strange indeed. The absence of a discernable treand confirms what those who have watched the games this season suspect -- the Big East, as has most of the power conferences this year, is having a chaotic, wide open race for most of the conference tournament seeds so far...

	Nova		WVU
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
South Florida	W (A)	+12	W (H)	+10
Georgetown	L (H)	-3	W (A)	+6
Providence	L (A)	-15	W (H)	+30
Louisville	W (H)	+14	L (A)	-1
Cincinnati	W (H)	+11	W (A)	+11
Marquette	W (H)	+5	L (A)	-5

West Virginia's best OOC win was a three point victory over Vanderbilt (SEC, 15-6, 3-4, RPI #24), a win that looks better to the RPI than Ken Pomeroy. Pomeroy values the 'Eers win over Duquesne (A-10, 15-5, 8-0 #28 Kenpom) a bit more. Best conference wins include the 65-59 road win at Georgetown (17-5, 6-4, RPI #5) and at home versus Cincinnati (16-3, 3-3, RPI #35), a convincing 15 point win. Their single loss, a 12 point loss at Pittsburgh earlier this week, did little to diminish their tournament resume.

Villanova's marquee out of conference win is still the Temple University (A-10, 16-5, 6-2, RPI #35) game, a four point decision, in December. The Wildcats' best win overall was their 11 point road victory over Syracuse (17-4, 6-4, RPI #16) in conference play last month. Villanova's worst loss, a 15 point spanking at the hands of Providence (BE 14-9, 3-7, RPI #99) also last month. Other losses in conference play include a two point loss to UConn in Storrs and a three point home loss to Georgetown last weekend...

Lineups, Rotations...
...The team that takes the court Saturday is surely not the one envisioned by Coach Bob Huggins in the weeks before Fall Practice. David Nyarsuk and Noah Cottrill are no longer in the program, though Nyarsuk may be in Morgantown next season. Of the two Cottrill was more likely to have an impact this season, but, recently suspended (for the second time since last September) guard Casey Mitchell aside, Coach Huggins has a pool of seven players among whom he typically allocates starts and playing time. Should Mitchell's second indefinite suspension this season be lifted by game time, the senior 6-4, 220 pound guard will probably start alongside junior Darryl Bryant (6-2, 195 pounds), a back court pairing the WVU staff has used in nearly 17 of the Mountaineers' 22 games this season. Red shirt senior Joe Mazzulla (6-2, 200 pounds) will come off the bench to sub in at the point when either Bryant or Mitchell sits. Sophomore wing Dalton Pepper (6-5, 230 pounds) will see minutes, most likely more than 10, at various points in the game. The wing has seen his minutes decline slightly since the start of conference play, but this is a home-coming game of sorts for the Pennsbury graduate. Look for the staff to tab senior 6-7 215 pound forward John Flowers and 6-8, 260 pound junior forward Kevin Jones to start in two of the three forward spots. The fifth starter will go to the player with who best fits the game plan and has probably practiced/played well lately. Senior forward Cam Thoroughman, one more of a seemingly endless supply of 6-7 forwards (Coach Huggins loves 'tweeners) has gotten the nod lately, but the staff has also tabbed (the recently departed) Dan Jennings and (6-9, 270 pound) sophomore Deniz Klicli for starts in the last six games. The spot does not appear to be nailed down yet. If Coach Huggins goes deeper than eight, expect to see Jonnie West (fifth year senior) first.

Coach Wright juggled the lineup for the Wildcats' home game with Marquette. Adjusting the starting line-up he had used in Villanova's first 21 games, the Coach decided to continute starting the three seniors, Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes and Antonio Pena, but pair Fisher and Stokes in the back court even as he left Pena at the #4. Coach Wright tabbed the fourth "regular" starter, sophmore center Mouphtaou Yarou for the #5, but decided to start sophomore Isaiah Armwood at the #3 and bring sophomore point guard Maalik Wayns off the bench early. While the change up may well have been to confound Marquette specificially with a match-up problem, having two 6-0 guards side-by-side can be problematic on defense, espeically one that relies so heavily on man defense with switching principles. The bench was short for the Warriors, limited largely to Wayns and spot appearances by freshman James Bell, and sophomores Dom Cheek & Maurice Sutton. The Marquette game marked a departure in the usual Villanova rotation, those three typically see playing times range between 10 and 20 minutes.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
Expect a modest clash of pace, as Villanova looks for a possession or so more than the Division 1 average (67.5) while West Virginia typically plays for three or so possessions less than the D1 average. Pomeroy projections suggest the two teams will settle for something in between (about 65 possessions), but in five of Villanova's last six games the 'Cats have had fewer than the projected possessions. This one might yield a game barely in the 60s, which would spell trouble for Villanova, as it would suggest the 'Cats are getting few points in transition. A "Four Factors" comparison when West Virginia has the ball...

When the Mountaineers have the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
'Eer O	49.1	19.3	41.4	41.3
Wildcat D	44.7	19.1	28.0	33.9

The Mountaineer offense is ranked #24 according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report, one of the near elites in Division 1. Coach Huggins' squad rebounds their misses among the very best in D1. Coach Huggins' offensive strategy is fairly straightforward, toss the ball at the basket and then rely on those athletic forwards to get the rebound and score on putback opportunities. They get to the line well, (41.3% of their FGAs, ranked #98 in D1), which suggests those rebounding battles can get physical. Perimeter defense has been a source of handwringing for the Nova Nation, but they will most likely not have to worry Saturday, West Virginia three point shooting falls in the bottom quarter of three point shooting, though frankly their two point attempt conversions are among the top third of Division 1. They are among the elites at covering the offensive boards, thereby giving themselves second chance opportunities. This mtachup is crucial for Villanova, as the Wildcats are among the elites for defensive rebounding. In two losses of their four losses, the Wildcats were unable to control the defensive boards, allowing their opponents to gather >35% of their misses. This should be a good benchmark for the Villanova front court and staff game planning. Holding West Virginia to the D1 average would be a huge boost, but that struggle beneath the boards could well test the Wildcats' depth at the forward spots. While West Virginia is good at getting to the line, they are an average team at converting those opportunities. Villanova has become particulary good at defending the shot, their eFG% defense is ranked #26 in D1. If Villanova starts Armwood but struggles to contain West Virginia's offensive rebounding in the first half, look for the type of half-time adjustment that might call for more bodies to crash the boards. That would however, diminish fast break opportunities. With poor three point shooting, Villanova's staff may feel that having both Wayns and Fisher together in the back court may be less risky than having both in against Marquette (a much stronger three point shooting squad). The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus West Virginia's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	49.9	17.7	36.1	44.1
'Eer D	44.0	20.2	35.6	34.8

The Eer's adjusted defense is 89.8, ranked #18, among the elites for Division 1. They are very strong shot defenders (excellent at defending the three and above average defending the two), but are only "above average" (ranked in the upper 1/3 of D1) at keeping their opponents off the line and merely average at forcing turnovers. The Mountaineers are not good defensive rebounders, a weakness which contrasts sharply with a Villanova offensive strength. Though the difference in rebounding rates is relatively small (about 0.5), it suggests Villanova should have a good day rebounding their misses. And that would be very good given the Mountaineers' outstanding shot defense. Another key indicator for West Virginia's defense however is fouling -- they don't. For Villanova, used to netting 25% or more of their points at the line may well have to find another source for posting points, assuming they cannot coax more fouls out of Coach Huggins' squad.

Want to Beat West Virginia? Then...
Shooting is always critical, make them miss and convert your own, but...
1. Couple their misses with poor(er) rebounding. West Virginia can survive a shooting day (eFG%) in the 40s if they rebound their misses strongly, but they cannot survive a shooting day in the 30s, irrespective of their rebounding. West Virginia is 1-2 when shooting in their eFG% is <40%. The only time they won (South Florida), their opponent shot even worse than they did. If the Moutaineers are shooting in the 40s, then limit their offensive boards to the Division 1 average (about 33%). In games where they shot in the 40s and rebounded in the 30s they went 1-1.
2. Convert your shots. Sounds easy, no? Make them miss and hit your own. Like their offense, combine shooting (eFG%) and offensive rebounding. In games where their opponents converted at 50% or higher (eFG%), WVU is 2-3. In games where opponents convert at 40% (but less than 50%) and rebound at Villanova's average or better, the 'Eers are 1-2.
3. Get to the line. In games where WVU's opponents have an FT Rate (FTA/FGA) of 36.8 or higher (Villanova's rate is 44.1), they have gone 3-5.

Finally...
...Villanova lost back-to-back games in the Wells Fargo Center as they staggered to the finish last season. The games, played two weeks apart (with a Pavilion game in between) were against Connecticut and West Virginia. Before that, the Wildcats lost to Notre Dame after they lost to Syracuse (with a trip to Pittsburgh in between). Pomeroy is calling this one for the 'Cats, 65 possessions and a four point winning margin, with a 66% degree of certainty.

2010-11 Preview -- West Virginia Mountaineers

Too Busy for the Details?
West Virginia finished the 2010 Big East season strong, running the table at Madison Square Garden and brushing their first three NCAA opponents by nine or better points. Putting down the Kentucky Wildcats, 73-66, in the East Regional the Mountaineers punched their ticket to the second Final Four in the program's history. Their loss to eventual champion Duke in the semi-final was overshadowed by the uncertainty surrounding senior Da'Sean Butler, injured during the game, who appeared prepared to play at the next level once his days in Morgantown were done. Coach Huggins will see his back court return intact and hopefully healthier in 2011 than 2010. Casey Mitchell and Deniz Kilicli should be aclimated to the West Virginia system. Can the Mountaineers make it two consecutive Final Fours? They have a good starting point.  Prognosis -- A 1st quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2011	2010	2009
%Min	55.9	82.9	58.8
%Pts	52.3	66.0	62.2
%FGM	52.5	81.7	60.0
%3FGM	56.8	62.3	64.8
%OReb	51.9	92.3	65.2
%DReb	48.5	87.3	60.0
%TReb	49.8	89.2	61.7

Returning points, considering the losses include four year players Da'Sean Butler and Wellington Smith, along with Devin Ebanks, is surprisingly close to returning minutes. The points can be replaced as there are several Mountaineer bballers ready to step up.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2009-10		2008-09		2007-08
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
BE Off Eff	112.4	2	106.3	8	107.4	4
BE Def Eff	100.3	3	98.1	3	99.6	4
BE Eff Diff	12.1	1	8.2	6	7.8	4
BE Def eFG	48.2	5	47.7	3	50.2	11
BE Def TOv	20.1	5	20.9	3	21.7	3
BE Def OReb	32.9	T4	32.1	5	31.3	5
BE Def FTA/FGA	43.7	14	39.7	13	37.7	8

The defensive numbers have remained fairly "steady" over the past three seasons, though the Mountaineers are becoming (note their FGA/FGA for defense) far more physical defenders than they were under John Beilein. In the transition from John Beilein's finesse-oriented style of offense and defense, the Bob Huggins squads have not developed a "signature" defensive feature. They do not excel at shot defense, nor at rebounding (remarkable considering their offensive rebounding), nor for forcing turnovers. The uptick in allowing opponents to get to the line, taken here as an indication of more physical play, is the only noticeable difference in defensive play over the last three season. If the defense is largely nondescript (physical play excepted), the same cannot be said for the offense...

Care to guess Bob Huggins' first season?

The transition from efficient shot selection to offensive rebounding is remarkable. While the current coach may have carried over much of the Beilein offensive playbook, the shift from working the defense to free a shooter (usually on the perimeter) and snag a high-percentage shot to controlling the boards for the second-chance opportunity is striking. Note that West Virginia hovered on the boundary separating the first and second quartiles (#3 down to #5) while making this offensive transition. Can the Mountaineers improve their Big East standing? The data would suggest they cannot get much better at offensive rebounding. With turnovers and FTA/FGA fluctuating from season-to-season, eFG% (shooting efficiency) would have to improve for West Virginia to maintain their place at the table in the first quartile. In an offense where efficient shot making predominates, turnovers may play a more important role than offensive rebounding.

	For the Record...
	2009-10			2008-09			2007-08
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	31	7	0.816	23	12	0.657	26	11	0.703
Big East	13	5	0.722	10	8	0.556	11	7	0.611
Post Season?	NCAA Rnd #5			NCAA Rnd #1			NCAA Rnd #3

The Mountaineer's Nucleus
When Coach Bob Huggins runs his first practice, he will look on a squad composed nearly entirely of players he (and Assistant Coach Billy Hahn) recruited. Ironically, the squad is not much longer than those assembled by John Beilein, but they faster and more athletic.

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
Kevin Jones	81.2	124.6	18.5	21.5	57.6	12.0	1.18	28.5
Darryl Bryant	55.0	102.7	23.9	21.4	42.4	2.7	1.00	56.0
Joe Mazzulla	38.5	91.5	15.2	10.0	37.5	2.1	0.87	76.2
John Flowers	35.4	102.5	14.6	12.6	48.5	6.1	0.98	50.0
Casey Mitchell	18.5	102.8	24.3	33.3	41.5	5.4	0.80	15.6
Cam Thoroughman	16.8	91.2	12.4	6.0	50.0	9.0	1.05	109.1
Dalton Pepper	14.8	112.5	20.3	27.8	47.2	4.4	0.98	12.2

Look for juniors Kevin Jones and Truck Bryant to function as first and second scoring options when they are on the floor. They should be augmented by back court/wing players Casey Mitchell and Dalton Pepper, two of the most efficient rotation players last season. If they increase their time without reducing their usage (Poss%) or sacrificing efficiency (ORtg), they should be able to make up for the departed offense. West Virginia fans who look to senior John Flowers for a big step up will be disappointed. Flowers will get minutes, and the senior has provided better efficiency than (say) Joe Mazzulla, but Flowers has not provided more than limited role player-type offense in his previous three seasons, and will not grow much beyond that level this season either. An "X Factor" player going into this season is sophomore forward/center Deniz Kilicli, a Turk who sat for an NCAA-mandated 23 games last season. Should the Turk improve his rebounding (his shot efficiency, 51.2% eFG%, compared favorably with other members of the squad), he will see (a lot) more floor time in 2011.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Kevin Jones	81.2	13.0	7.2	10.9	3.1	1.1
Darryl Bryant	55.0	7.7	25.2	21.6	0.1	1.8
Joe Mazzulla	38.5	11.2	26.5	28.0	0.2	2.5
John Flowers	35.4	13.5	15.5	20.2	6.0	2.4
Casey Mitchell	18.5	7.5	9.9	10.7	0.0	2.2
Cam Thoroughman	16.8	10.5	11.6	34.8	1.8	1.2
Dalton Pepper	14.8	4.7	15.1	9.4	0.5	1.1

Not a good sign when the point guard is the second-most efficient defensive rebounder. Jones is a great offensive rebounder, but has to get better on the defensive glass. And someone from Pepper, Kilicli and Flowers will have to improve greatly if the West Virginia is to stay among the conference elites in defense.

Significant Additions
The Mountaineers' entering class, on the small (in number) size, has been steadily reduced. A single player, 6-10, 235 pound Kevin Noreen out of Minneapolis, MN is available. Noah Cottrill, a 6-3, 195 scoring machine, was suspended indefinitely in late October. Red shirt freshman Kenny Ross, a 6-0 175 pound guard, may see some rotation minutes.

Explode If...
1. Pepper, Kilicli and Mitchell can efficienctly replace the departed scoring.
2. The Mountaineers can take better care of the ball. Turnovers were not a drag on the offense last season, but should Coach Huggins' squad reduce their turnover rate (17.2% in conference play last season) by another 4% (which would rank them in the top 2-3 in conference) they could get another 2-3 field goal attempts per game in the bargain.
3. Bryant improves his shot conversion efficiency to "average". The guard was terrible last season, converting just 37.7% of his 2 point attempts and 31.5% of his 3 point attempts.

Implode If...
1. Reduction in the number of players available. The exact reason does not really matter, health or discipline failings can net the same result, and the squad has suffered both, and NCAA sanctions as well, over the past three seasons. At least five different players have had at least six run-ins that resulted in loss of game time. The coach does not have a deep enough squad this season to sustain efficiency should another player or two have to sit.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
West Virginia will rely on the 2010 Puerto Rico Tip-Off field to provide some credibility to their out of conference (OOC) schedule. Their first round opponent will be Davidson (Southern Conference), with either Nebraska (Big 12) or Vanderbilt (SEC -- most likely) to follow. High majors bracketed in the other half of the field include North Carolina (ACC -- a possible third opponent), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt powerhouse) and Minnesota (Big Ten -- possible fourth opponent). Puerto Rico comes early (November 18 through November 21), so the trip to Miami for a December 4 game is, local rivals Robert Morris and Duquesne aside, their sternest test before the Big East schedule. WVU does have two additional OOC games after conference play begins -- a made-for-TV matchup with Purdue (1/16) and traditional in state rival Marshall (1/19). If the Mountaineers are 11-0/10-1 (a reasonable expectation) when they meet St. John's on 12/29, they will ranked in the national polls and probably in line for a very good (#3 or better) seed in the NCAAs. 8-3 (or worse) and West Virginia fans will be pining for the days of Da'Sean Butler and Devin Ebanks.

West Virginia's mirrors, Backyard Brawl rival Pittsburgh, Louisville and DePaul, are a good, representative mix of the conference. Given the Coliseum's intimidation factor, the 'Eers should be able to wring a 4-2 or even 5-1 record from that trio. Noting the Coliseum as an advantage, hosting St. John's, Notre Dame and Seton Hall should translate into Ws for Coach Huggins' squad and provide a tie-breaker edge with teams that may well challenge for position in conference standings. The Johnnies and Pirates visit fairly early in the conference season. The Mountaineers open the conference season with a five game slate before they take a two game "OOC break". Those five games include a home opener against St. John's (welcome to the Big East Steve Lavin!), followed by a three game road trip (WVU's longest road run) that takes the squad out to the midwest (Marquette and DePaul) with a chaser in DC (Georgetown) and then a home game against Providence. Sporting a 3-2 conference record before hosting Purdue would be par for the course (but a bit disappointing?). Anything less should be cause for concern, though not surprising if their OOC record was (say) 8-3 or poorer. The last half of the schedule, on paper, is tougher than the first, so keeping the losses to one or two is important. The far turn features a road trip to Philadelphia and a meeting with Villanova. That game is followed by both Backyard Brawl games and a trip to Syracuse. If WVU has 10-11 conference wins going into the home stretch, they will be in very good shape as they have a trip to Piscataway and a date with Rutgers, followed by a two game homestand that features Connecticut and Louisville. A 3-0 run to close out the conference schedule (combined with the 10-11 wins going in) would put West Virginia in line for a #3/#4 seed in the Big East Tournament.

Rising Sophomores -- Nine to Watch

The Big East All-Rookie Team Isn't Here
While the five players (Lance Stephenson, Alex Oriakhi, Vincent Council, Dane Miller, Brandon Triche and Maalik Wayns) named to the All-Rookie Team were impact players, only Rookie of the Year, Lance Stephenson, decided to jump into the NBA draft last June. While Pomeroy's classification system is a great guide, taking into account the pool has a single season of Division 1 experience, I broadened the parameters a bit to scout the the "Limited Role" up and into the "Major Contributor" player, someone who took about 13%-25% of their team's possessions last season. Considering freshmen are more often in the rotation rather than the starting line-up, I also decided to look for players who may have logged as little as 12% of the available playing time on the theory that if they played behind an All-Team starter/senior, they will most likely see a much larger percentage of the playing time this season. The low-end possession guys ("Role" players) most likely will not grow into a "Major Contributor" or "Go-to Guy" player next season, but, if their role (possessions and shots) does grow next season, the chances of playing themselves into a "Major" or "Go-to Guy" role by their Junior season is pretty good. Pomeroy discusses growth "probabilities" in "Putting Individual Efficiency into Perspective" over at The Basketball Prospectus back in 2007. One thing about these players is clear -- they tend to push at the upper limit of their growth curve each season.

			On Offense...
Player	Coll	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	PPWS
Mookie Jones	Cuse	12.8	118.2	22.4	27.9	1.26
Dante Taylor	Pitt	34.1	115.0	16.2	14.4	1.18
Dalton Pepper	WVU	14.8	112.5	20.3	27.8	0.98
Rakeem Buckles	'Ville	27.2	112.0	18.6	16.1	1.15
Jaquon Parker	'Nati	24.1	111.2	17.4	16.4	1.14
Hollis Thompson	GTown	48.8	111.0	13.2	13.8	1.15
Dominic Cheek	Nova	33.5	109.9	18.2	19.5	1.07
Mouphtaou Yarou	Nova	23.7	109.3	16.3	12.9	1.23
Peyton Siva	'Ville	26.1	94.6	23.1	17.2	1.12

The minutes for Mookie Jones of Syracuse are light, very, very light...but check out his Offensive Rating and Possessions -- he scores about 1.18 points when he is the player who finishes the possession. His possession rate (%Poss) suggests he is comfortable with the ball, combined with a shot rate (%Shot -- when he is on the court that is roughly the percentage of shots he takes) indicates he can be assertive in the Orange's offensive sets. Why is his %Shot higher than his %Poss (for a #3, one would assume they should be pretty close)? Scarce minutes (12.8%) can create strange impressions and situations for the freshman player. Jones did not see large stretches of time, but rather two-five minutes bursts. A more consistent workout would probably bring down his offensive efficiency and shot rate, but probably not his possession rate, and as will be seen in the "Miscellaneous Table" below, his assist rate was pretty strong (for a freshman wing), which enhanced his offensive efficiency. At 6-7, 220 pounds, he played behind Wesley Johnson and Andy Rautins, in a loose rotation with Kris Joseph and James Southerland. If learning Syracuse's favored 2-3 zone is the price for getting to the floor, then Jones should make that a priority this summer and fall. If he can quadruple his playing time and maintain those efficiency stats, the Orange won't fall very far in 2011. Dante Taylor was one of those late blooming but hotly contested recruits coming into Pittsburgh in the fall of 2009. The freshman front court player struggled to find his place last season, but posted some pretty impressive efficiency numbers for the minutes he played, certainly good enough to draw an Honorable Mention for Breakout Player this season from Josh Reed over at Basketball Prospectus. More a #4 than a #5, the key to Taylor's sophomore season may lie in whether Taylor has developed enough face-the-basket offense (and defense) and whether Coach Dixon can work a legitimate #4 into the Panthers' offense and defense -- the team has tended to go with 'tweeners and #3s playing up a position since Chris Taft left. If Pittsburgh's Ireland Tour early in August is a good indication, the staff will have a hard time keeping Taylor on the bench. While his offense was a bit inconsistent, I took note of his rebounding and offense in Second Irish National Team game and in the Dart Killister Club game played during the Dublin portion of their tour. Injuries and slow recoveries to the Mountaineers' point guards last season forced Coach Huggins to improvise a sort of Four Forwards Offense that put the onus for making plays on the shoulders of those four forwards (primarily Devin Ebanks, Da'Sean Butler, Kevin Jones & Wellington Smith), which in turn left freshman Dalton Pepper searching for a role. Primarily a perimeter player, Pepper had been very effective as a catch-and-shoot wing who drove occasionally when he played at Pennsbury. With an offense that emphasized a more "make your own" and score off the rebound approach, Pepper had no one to get him the ball. Truck Bryant will be back, as will red shirt Joe Mazzulla, both will -- hopefully -- be healthier than last season. Ebanks and Butler have moved on, and Coach Huggins will most likely revert to a more traditional line-up. Pepper is a good size for a wing (6-5, 215 pounds), and should he pick up his rebounding and attack the basket more, should see his minutes increase this season.

The large difference in minutes for the players can make this more tricky than later classes. If a rising senior with very efficient numbers has drawn about 12% of the available minutes through his career, it is safe to say there was (efficiency aside) an issue, that went unresolved for the first three years of his collegiate career, that most likely limited his minutes. An issue that will not be resolved going into his senior season. With freshmen, possibly overwhelmed or intimidated by the transition, playing behind upper classmen (for whatever reason), can obscure a freshman's eventual role on the team and in the coach's system. Probably one reason why many observe a "Sophomore Jump" in (sometimes) the unlikeliest players.

			Four Factors...
						FTA
Player	Coll	%Min	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
Mookie Jones	Cuse	12.8	63.2	6.3	16.8	19.4
Dante Taylor	Pitt	34.1	58.4	16.1	14.8	68.5
Dalton Pepper	WVU	14.8	47.2	4.4	9.4	12.2
Rakeem Buckles	'Ville	27.2	52.9	15.5	20.8	47.7
Jaquon Parker	'Nati	24.1	55.5	6.8	19.0	40.2
Hollis Thompson	GTown	48.8	56.6	5.3	17.7	32.0
Dominic Cheek	Nova	33.5	50.4	10.0	14.9	40.6
Mouphtaou Yarou	Nova	23.7	58.3	12.7	25.6	56.7
Peyton Siva	'Ville	26.1	54.0	1.6	33.3	46.6

Rakeem Buckles was effective in limited play in 2010. The freshman has the dimensions of a #3, but the slashing style that works well in transition or when attacking the basket directly. His competition for playing time, mostly wing-type #3s, can hit the outside shot, a skill that Buckles has yet to demonstrate consistently. Should the staff decide rebounding and getting to the line will take precedent next season, Buckles will catch quite a few of the minutes left behind by Jerry Smith and Reggie Delk. If the staff wants an outside threat that Buckles cannot provide, they may turn to rising junior Jared Swopshire. A few might have hoped that having very well regarded Seattle point guard Payton Siva on the roster would provide the staff with a viable alternative should senior point Edgar Sosa have difficulty staying on script. Siva however had his own problems. His solid assist rate (below -- 29.3%) only partly offset his extremely high turnover rate (see above -- 33.3%). Freshmen Elisha Justice and Russ Smith will most likely form a back court/pg rotation with Siva, but clearly the the rising sophomore will be the lead guard for next season's Cardinal team. Jaquon Parker formed a point guard tandem with fellow Cincinnati freshman Cashmire Wright. An off guard out of high school (), Parker made the transition to pair with Wright and leave Vaughn and Stephenson to operate on the wing. The plan was only modestly successful for Cincinnati, but Parker (and Wright) will be back to try again in 2011, this time they will have Yancy Gates, but not Vaughn and Stephenson. Parker very efficiently converted possessions to points last season, and functioning at the high-end "Role Player" level in the Cincinnati offense provides Parker with the possibility of growing into a "Significant Contributor" next season.

		Miscellaneous...
Player	Coll	Ast%	DR%	Blk%	Stl%
Mookie Jones	Cuse	13.0	10.0	2.4	3.8
Dante Taylor	Pitt	1.8	15.4	4.4	2.0
Dalton Pepper	WVU	15.1	4.7	0.5	1.1
Rakeem Buckles	'Lville	7.8	18.7	1.5	2.3
Jaquon Parker	'Nati	14.7	17.2	0.3	1.6
Hollis Thompson	GTown	8.5	9.4	2.3	2.8
Dominic Cheek	Nova	5.8	10.9	2.1	1.6
Mouphtaou Yarou	Nova	6.7	14.7	7.8	0.9
Peyton Siva	'Lville	29.3	6.9	0.6	5.2

Hollis Thompson, Georgetown's (eventual?) replacement for Jeff Green and DeJuan Summers, logged the highest percentage of playing time among the nine rising sophomores listed here, but his offensive impact, undeniably efficient, was nevertheless at the low-end of the "Limited Role" level in the Hoya offense. Prospects for dramatic growth (to say, "Major Contributor" level) are limited, probability and players ahead of him in the rotation the primary culprits. But given the loss of Greg Monroe, the prospects for Thompson to step into a high-end "Role Player" are fairly reasonable. Villanova had a tremendous class of freshmen in 2010. Maalik Wayns, a point guard, was voted to the Big East All-Rookie Team, the third Villanova lead guard recognized by the conference. Wing Dominic Cheek was a high-end "Role Player" last season, but with the loss of Regie Redding and Scottie Reynolds last spring, Cheek might be the primary candidate to step into Redding's minutes and spot on the floor, and grow his role in the offense as the staff works to distribute the offensive load carried for four seasons by Reynolds. #5 Mouphtao Yarou saw his development side tracked by illness early in the season. After he was cleared to play, Yarou returned to the rotation, and his minutes steadily grew through the end of the season. Yarou was an outstanding offensive rebounder who could finish consistently -- if he didn't lose the ball. Improving his defensive rebounding and cutting down on turnovers should be high on his To-Do List this summer and fall.

What About...?
Ater Majok and Jerrelle Benimon were very efficient, but virtually "Invisible" in their respective offenses. According to Pomeroy (with a large body of evidence to back it up) neither is likely to jump up to "Significant Contributor" level this season. Looking at possession rate, the same could be said of Austin Johnson. Isaiah Armwood and Ferrakohn Hall are also efficient, but suffer from the lack of a role in their respective team's (Villanova and Seton Hall) offense. Both face the additional hurdle of having players in front of them in the rotation.

Hits and Misses...Last Season's "Rising Sophomores"
Rutgers' Greg Echnique injured his eye early in the season, and after rehabbing for nearly a month, decided to transfer. He selected Creighton and enrolled for their Spring 2010 semester, beginning the mandetory one year waiting period. He should be ready to play for the Blue Jays at the conclusion of the 2010 fall semester, just in time for Creighton's Missouri Valley Conference season. The Pittsburgh point guard Ashton Gibbs started all 34 games, averaging 34.5 minutes per game. Gibbs was named to the All-Big East Second Team in March 2010. Terrence Jennings had modest increases in his playing time, Offensive Rating and shot percentage (%Shot), but did not work his way into the starting line-up, nor see his offensive role grow substantially over the course of the 2010 season. He remained a "Role Player", but I have him back on the "Watch List" as a rising Junior. Also back on the "Watch List" are Kevin Jones of West Virginia, Gus Gilchrist out of South Florida and Kris Joseph of Syracuse. All increased their playing time, efficiency, possessions and shot percentage. Joseph and Jones grew their possessions to the high-end of the "Role Player" level, and should make the move into "Significant Contributor" level roles in their team's offenses. Gilchrist was hobbled early by an ankle injury early in the 2010 season, but after his return to the Bulls' rotation, he managed to "grow" his role to "Major Contributor" level. Basketball Prospectus contributor Josh Reed tabbed Gilchrist the Big East 2011 breakout candidate last June. Cincinnati's Dion Dixon found himself between Lance Stephenson and Deonta Vaughn and lacking a clear role. The off guard's possession and shot rate stayed about the same (high-end "Role Player"), but his efficiency and minutes crashed. If he wants a larger role in the Bearcat offense, he will need to dramatically improve his shot conversion efficiency. Georgetown's Jason Clark saw his minutes and efficiency increase in 2010, but his role within the Hoya offense remained fairly close to where it was his freshman season -- "Role Player". Chris Wright on the other hand, saw his minutes and offensive efficiency improve over the 2009 season. His role also grew modestly, from a low-end "Significant Contributor" to a high-end "Significant Contributor", but not quite the impact that the Hoya faithful anticipated. Like Gus Gilchrist, West Virginia guard Truck Bryant had to overcome an injury (after his return from a three month suspension). Bryant's role grew marginally (to a high-end "Significant Contributor" role), even as his efficiency declined.

2011 To Watch Lists
Rising Seniors to Watch
Rising Juniors to Watch

Preview 2009-10 -- West Virginia Mountaineers

Too Busy for the Details?
Returning 65.9% of a squad that finished #7 in the conference last season before a disappointingly early exit from the NCAAs, hopes are very high for the Mountaineers, with many pegging West Virginia as the #1 or #2 team in the conference. This would be a tremendous development for Coach Bob Huggins, a West Virginia alum who returned to Morgantown 2 seasons ago when John Beilein took the Michigan job. Huggins and staff have incorporated the strengths of Beilein's "Flying Circus" squad into a more inside, power basketball-focused offensive system. This could be, despite the loss of senior Alex Ruoff, a breakout season for the 'Eers...if they can get consistent play from their backcourt. Prognosis -- A 1st quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance
Coach Huggins gets a double bonus this season -- this season's squad will have the most "Huggins-oriented" make up of any squad he has had at Morgantown, and it is the most experienced Mountaineer squad he has managed in his short tenure.

	Returning...
	2010	2009	2008
%Min	65.9	58.8	53.8
%Pts	63.5	59.2	56.4
%FGM	66.7	60.0	57.0
%3FGM	41.6	64.8	52.8
%OReb	88.2	65.2	52.8
%DReb	77.1	60.0	58.9
%TReb	81.2	61.7	57.0

Losing Alex Ruoff hurts, especially with outside shooting (note the 41.6% returning %3FGM above), but much of the rest of West Virginia's offense and defense returns intact as Coach Huggins works to balance his outside threats (Butler & the newcomers Mitchell and Pepper) with inside 'tweeners like Smith, Ebanks, Jones and Flowers (& the newcomers Kilicli & Jennings).

	According to Pomeroy...
	2008-09		2007-08		2006-07
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Overall ORtg	115.3	18	116.7	21	118.3	13
Overall DRtg	89.1	14	90.4	24	94.0	57
Big East ORtg	106.3	8	107.4	4	106.2	4
Big East DRtg	98.1	3	99.6	4	103.4	12
Four Factors -- Overall
All Off. eFG%	48.5	193	51.4	112	54.7	17
All Off. TOv%	17.9	42	16.1	6	17.0	10
All Off. OReb%	40.8	5	34.6	99	30.2	270
All Off. FTA/FGA	35.9	190	36.6	171	28.2	320
All Def. eFG%	46.6	61	48.0	80	49.3	131
All Def. TOv%	23.3	33	22.6	76	23.8	39
All Def. OReb%	31.6	119	30.7	80	35.2	251
All Def. FTA/FGA	38.4	222	39.7	237	28.8	33
Four Factors -- Big East Only
BE Off. eFG%	47.5	12	48.2	10	53.9	2
BE Off. TOv%	17.4	5	14.8	1	17.3	3
BE Off. OReb%	37.7	3	33.0	9	24.8	16
BE Off. FTA/FGA	29.2	13	40.1	3	30.3	13
BE Def. eFG%	47.7	3	50.2	11	51.6	14
BE Def. TOv%	20.9	3	21.7	3	21.1	4
BE Def. OReb%	32.1	5	31.3	5	35.9	14
BE Def. FTA/FGA	39.7	13	37.7	8	34.8	10
Miscellanious
All Gms Cons	25.3	327	27.1	333	24.2	295
All Gms Luck	-.075	311	-.025	203	+.015	122

Possibly a reflection of the change in coaching styles, the Mountaineers rank for the 2nd season running, near the bottom of DI for Luck and Consistency. A troubling trend that hints the Mountaineers may struggle unexpectedly at times and could well post a won-loss record lower than the squad's Pythagorean Winning Percentage would suggest.

	For the Record...
	2008-09			2007-08			2006-07
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	23	12	0.657	26	11	0.703	27	9	0.750
Big East	10	8	0.556	11	7	0.611	9	7	0.563
Post Season?	NCAA/Rnd 1			NCAA/Rnd 3			NIT/Champ

The Mountaineer's Nucleus
Coach Huggins will bring back Ebanks & Butler, two of West Virginia's 3 top scorers from 2009. Losses from the #5 spot (little used Josh Sowards and Dee Proby both transferred out) have thinned the front court, but Coach Huggins, not a big fan of the space eater-type low post player, will go with quartet of 'tweeners who range from 6-7 to 6-9, and tip the scales from 215 to 250 or so. A handful of those 'tweeners are returnees -- Butler, Smith, Jones, Flowers & Thoroughman.

On Offense
Player	Min%	ORtg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTRA
Butler	82.6	107.7	26.1	29.0	49.2	1.06	7.1	30.4
Ebanks	75.2	108.7	20.5	18.1	47.9	1.06	9.6	49.8
Bryant	63.7	102.6	21.9	21.3	47.9	1.05	1.6	35.7
Smith	53.3	104.4	15.8	15.0	43.6	0.94	10.2	37.6
Jones	48.1	113.6	16.7	19.5	50.3	1.02	10.7	23.7
Flowers	42.0	104.9	15.6	15.3	49.6	0.98	9.4	33.8
Thoroughman	21.7	94.0	13.1	7.1	43.8	0.92	14.0	68.8
Mazzulla	10.7	102.4	18.9	12.7	41.1	0.99	2.2	85.7

Bryant and Mazzulla were suspended from all basketball activities during the off season. The school however posted both to the preseason roster, and sure enough they were re-instated before the Fall practice (mid October). With Ebanks and Mazzulla reinstated, the Mountaineers will enter the season with a deep and experienced back court, including bodies (returning and entering) to man the #1 and #2. And the same goes for their front court.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stls%	Blk%
Da'Sean Butler	82.6	13.5	11.5	16.1	1.0	2.3
Devin Ebanks	75.2	20.2	17.4	18.7	2.6	1.7
Darryl Bryant	63.7	6.7	21.2	22.2	0.1	1.3
Wellington Smith	53.3	9.8	11.3	17.3	7.8	1.6
Kevin Jones	48.1	18.2	6.7	9.6	3.8	1.9
John Flowers	42.0	12.6	11.0	16.4	4.9	1.7
Cam Thoroughman	21.7	14.3	12.9	31.7	1.5	2.6
Joe Mazzulla	10.7	10.2	31.1	23.5	0.0	2.8

Bryant and Mazzulla are clearly the point guards (note their assist and turnover rates -- Ast% and TO% respectively), but the others are very good at distributing the ball. No one, Thoroughman excepted, is especially loose with the ball either.

Significant Additions
Coach Huggins continues to stock his squad with athletic forwards, consistent with teams/programs he built at Akron, Cincinnati and Kansas State, before coming to West Virginia. The incoming class, 3 Top 100 (ESPNU) ranked freshmen and the JUCO Player of the Year (also consistent with his recruiting practices), is a consensus top 2/3 class in the Big East. , if short of point guards. Casey Mitchell, a 6-4 SG out of Chipola Junior College, Florida will step into the wing spot vacated by Alex Ruoff. Mitchell was JUCO player of the year last season when he chipped in 20 ppg for Chipola. He will go a long way in filling the point void left by the departed Ruoff. He may take some ball handling responsibilities should Mazzulla and/or Bryant not be re-instated in 2009-10. Deniz Kilicli is a 6-9 Turkish import who will step into the #4/#5 and push Smith, Jones and Thoroughman for time. Kilicli played for the Turkish national team this past summer in the World University Games (Serbia), and was ranked #47 by ESPN/Scouts, Inc., in their 2009 Top 100. The NCAA, however, suspended him for West Virginia's first 20 games this season for play on a Turkish team that also employed a professional player. Strictly prohibited under NCAA rules. Dan Jennings, a 6-8, 225lb #4 out of St. Thomas More School in Connecticut (a name that should be familiar to Villanova fans), will compete for time in the low post. A physical player who likes to draw contact, Jennings was ranked #60 by ESPN/Scouts, Inc. Dalton Pepper is another name familiar to the Wildcat faithful. Pepper graduated from Pennsbury HS in Pennsylvania, was on Villanova's recruiting radar until he pulled the trigger for West Virginia in 2008. Pepper continues the "Philadelphia guard" tradition with physical play and rebounding to go with his shooting. Pepper is also rated in ESPN/Scout Inc.'s Top 100 (#96), and will compete with wing Da'Sean Butler for playing time. If Mazzulla & Bryant remain suspended through the beginning of the season look for Pepper to get a look at the #1.

Explode If...
1. Coach Huggins can solidify the point guard position. Having either (or both) of junior Joe Mazzulla and sophomore Darryl Bryant would be a huge step for the program. Both are fast, can slash into the lane and are strong enough to finish after contact. Mazzulla may be a bit rusty after taking a red shirt last season. The summer suspension may also have set him back. Bryant spent most of last season on the steep side of the learning curve. His shooting should be more accurate this season, which will be a big boon for the program.
2. Coach Huggins can find a productive rotation for the forward spots. One or more of Kilicli, Jennings or Smith (more likely) will spend time in the low post. Of the returning players Ebanks and Jones were the more productive on the boards. Kilicli or Jennings can get time if he can rebound.
3. A combination of (an improved) Ebanks, Bryant, Flowers and Jones, along with newcomers Casey Mitchell and/or Dalton Pepper surpasses Alex Ruoff's offensive production. The staff will no doubt give each a long look.
4. The 'Eers can figure out how to break on the high side of .500 on the road. Over the past 2 conference seasons West Virginia has gone 13-5 at home, and a far more modest 8-10 on the road. They went 7-2 at home, very close to the max. An 8-1 home record coupled with a 5-4/6-3 road record should seal a #1 seed in New York City next March.


Implode If...
The usual demons of injury & egos aside, Huggins' teams have often proven to be their own worst enemies. The first two seasons passed with only 2 - 3 distractions. Are Mazzulla and Bryant an anamoly or a hint of things to come.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
West Virginia will face Long Beach State in the first round of the 76 Classic. The second round opponent will be either Texas A&M or Clemson, with the third rond opponent coming from the other bracket...one of UCLA, Minnesota or Butler, most likely. 2-1 -- or better 3-0 -- should warm the hearts throughout the Mountaineer Nation. WVU will host (former Rutgers Coach) Gary Waters' Cleveland State Vikings, a team that upset Syracuse last season in the Carrier Dome, then face Ole Miss, coached by former Huggins' assistant Andy Kennedy. Going undefeated (or 9-1...) into the Big East regular season would be a strong signal the 'Eers are ready to contend for the Big East title. Their January/February leg contains three more OOC opponents, in-state rival Marshall, along with national powers Purdue and Ohio State -- both nationally televised games.

West Virginia jump starts their Big East season with a trip to Newark to face the Seton Hall Pirates at the Rock in what promises to be a good test. A run back to Morgantown for their home opener versus the Marquette Golden Eagles will be followed by a trip to Indiana to play Purdue. Marquette may be the breather in that run. A breather back home against Rutgers will be followed by a two game road trip, first to South Bend and the Fighting Irish, followed by a swing down to Tampa and a matchup with the Bulls. Those games should be a good barometer of how far the Mountaineers are progressing. Beating both the Irish (generally tough to do at the Joyce Center) and the Bulls could put WVU at 5-0 (or 4-1) going into a mini-homestand where they deal first with Syracuse and then their last two (before the NCAAs) OOC opponents (Marchall & Ohio State). 3-0 through that stand should have the 'Eers ranked in the top 10, especially if they are #1 in the Big East standings at that point. The real test for Coach Huggins' squad will come in the last 5 games of the regular season, as WVU will come off of another two game road trip (to Pittsburgh and then Providence) to host Seton Hall and close out their home-n-away series with the Pirates. The 'Eers travel to Storrs to close out their mirror games with the Huskies, and return home to face Cincinnati, then Georgetown. And then they finish with a road closer at Villanova. Note four of those five opponents are projected to finish in the top 6 of the conference, with a season-ending clash between the preseason #1 & #2 ranked teams. Irrespective of their record entering this last leg of the conference play (13-0? 12-1? 11-2?), it is very unlikely they will go 5-0. 4-1 is likely (not necessarily Villanova), even 3-2 (or 2-3?) would not be shocking.