Guest Contributor: Pico Dulce -- St. John's Scouting Report

Pico Dulce of Rumble in the Garden blog ran off a scouting report on the Red Storm...

Starting Five & Rotation Notes
Dwight Hardy G 6'2" and listed at 195 (which I don't believe) - he has a lot of nicknames and takes a lot of shots for the Red Storm. He's become very accurate in the last month. You may heave heard something about him.

Paris Horne G 6'3" - an ace defender, and finally able to use his combination of athleticism - strength and speed, defensive agility and leaping ability - to help the team win in ways that don't show up on the scoreboard.

DJ Kennedy G/F 6'5" - a tenacious dirty-work player who will pick up rebounds and is a dangerous defender in the Red Storm's press and in transition defense.

Dwayne Polee II F 6'7" - a long freshman getting his feet wet with a number of starts, he has a developing jump shot.

The Red Storm go maybe 8 deep, with forwards Justin Burrell and Sean Evans logging time in the post, along with point guard Malik Boothe.

Justin Burrell is 6'8" and looks like a basketball player. Half the time, he plays like a basketball player; he's been motivated and focused recently, so his active brand of basketball - physical, strong, and liable to catch a Technical foul - will be on display.

Sean Evans, the Philly native, has re-blossomed into a bit of a low-post force. He's doing a lot more right now than he did in the previous 3 seasons, not breaking off of the offense to make dribble moves that go nowhere (I hope he was breaking off of the plan. If that was the plan, well...). Evans can bang in the paint and hold his space.

Malik Boothe is all of 5'9" but he has been a defensive sparkplug. No quarter asked, none given. He's happy to try and pull the ball right out of another players' hands, passes decently, and is much better at making an end-of-shot-clock jumper or drive than in the past.

Defense First
St. John's whole system is based off of their defensive pressure. It's not constant; they press off of made shots, generally, and the press tends to slow teams down a bit, restricting transition opportunities. At times, they will crank it up with Paris Horne and Malik Boothe guarding ballhandlers close; there will be traps around halfcourt at times. When the press is broken, there is often an open 3-pointer waiting to happen.

In the halfcourt, the Red Storm mostly play a matchup zone. Some games it looks better than others, and they give up a number of three-pointers in the zone - for periods of the game. Late in the game, they tend to better identify developing threats and mark them well. Even with the open threes, the zone is effective. The Red Storm spring traps in the corners to force turnovers or passes that lead to turnovers. The team reacts well in the zone, forcing cross-court passes that can get a little wild.

On Offense
On offense the team moves the ball up quickly to test the defense. Off of misses and of turnovers, DJ Kennedy will likely be in the middle, looking for a streaking Justin Brownlee or Paris Horne going to the basket; sometimes Kennedy's the recipient of those passes. Dwight Hardy is often guarded, and gets many of his points off of a screen-and-roll and a dribble. He's become awesome at attacking a little bit of daylight for a drive and layup/ foul or a mid-range jump shot.

His job as point guard is in name only; he gets to handle the ball because he's uniquely able to take advantage of small breakdowns in the defense. But his ability to attack draws defenders; he'll pass the ball off, and get it back when he's better able to attack his man.

Vulnerabilities & Conclusion
The Red Storm have been susceptible to size for much of the season; Justin Brownlee is less effective against bigger defenders, though he is using his offensive versatility more than in the past. But the team has trouble scoring on longer, taller teams like Cincinnati; expect them to have some struggles against Yarou and Pena if they can't coax those two out of the paint. The forwards have shown a willingness to pass out of trouble (and to rotate to places to accept passes when their teammates are in trouble), and they look more effective, even if the shots aren't falling. Justin Burrell has shown signs of being a creative post player once more, so there's a chance that he might be able to go to work on Villanova.

Overall, the Johnnies are playing smart, smart basketball. I don't think they'll win - but that's mainly because I'm a pessimist. The team is really clicking despite their weaknesses, and they've become a real joy to watch.

greyCat Notes...Pico is absolutely correct about his last point -- this Johnnies team has been fun to watch. I caught them at the Garden for the Notre Dame and Pittsburgh games this season and the team has taken a 180 degree turn from 2010 and earlier editions. This is a very dangerous St. John's team.

On Dwayne Polee -- when asked in the Pitt post game presser about next season's team, Coach Steve Lavin suggested that getting starts and minutes this season for Polee would pay dividends next season as he would be one of the experienced players the staff could rely on to bring next season's freshmen along.

Catch Pico's "5 Questions..." features with VUHoops.com (they discuss indispensable players, the bigs turnover problems and "Jay Wright to..." rumors) and Nova Blog (they explore confidence issues, Mo Sutton's suspensions, futures for Corey Fisher, etc.) over at Rumble in the Garden. Pico has also combined material from his "5 Questions for..." features with a scouting report I sent over yesterday and produced an entertaining breakdown of the Wildcats and Johnnies game tomorrow.

Post Game: Pittsburgh at St. John's -- We're Baaack!

Red Storm Rising
For two hours the cheers rolled down to the court like thunder as #4 Pittsburgh and St. John's traded buckets and defensive stops. The house exploded when the Johnnies retook the lead 58-56 on Dwight Hardy's second free throw, but the Pittsburgh fans responded in kind when Travon Woodall knocked down Pittsburgh's only three pointer of the afternoon that did not come from the hand of Ashton Gibbs. The Red Storm brought the ball up and called timeout. 0:11 left and a one point game, Dwight Hardy drove to the lane passing Gilbert Brown, he had to move left and down to the baseline. Brown shadowed him, staying between the guard and the basket, but Hardy piroetted (Coach Lavin's words...) past the Panther forward and Brown let him go, believing the vaunted Pitt lane defense behind him would rotate over to cover the guard. No help came, but Hardy had driven too far, and positioned under the basket, had lost his clear shot. Laying his arm out he flipped the ball up with an underhand motion. The ball bounced tentatively on the edge of he rim before dropping through. The Garden exploded, sending a wall of sound down to the court. 60-59 St. John's. "...a tough shot...give (him) credit for making the shot" said Jamie Dixon after the game.

Like many Saturday noon games, the crowd was slow to assemble, and if the cheers during the line up announcement was louder than usual, the cheer that greeted Hardy's first (and only) three pointer, the response to a Gary McGhee put back of Travon Woodall's runner that had put Pitt up 2-0 from the tip, was several decibels above the line up announcement, and a precusor of the support to come. Pittsburgh's pregame notes described Madison Square Garden as the Panthers "home away from home", and touted Pitts 26-11 record in the building since 2001, but the cheer that filled the arena after Hardy's long jumper left no doubt the players in home whites were indeed the home team. With Hardy's bucket the Johnnies opened a 14-5 run that stunned Division 1's #4 team and left them reeling through much of the first half. Physical, deliberate defense-oriented play characterized the first half, with Pittsburgh trailing by margins as high as nine. Facing a hostile and active road crowd seemed to unnerve the Panther squad and their head coach, Jamie Dixon, who drew a technical with 5:05 left in the first half. And the referee crew too seemed affected as they closed the half with a series of bizarre calls that put two technicals on St. John's (one on Coach Steve Lavin and another on guard DJ Kennedy), and gave the Panthers four straight free throw attempts, the ball and a one point lead with 0:25 on the clock. The 27-26 score held through the end of the half.

The breakdown by halves...

	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	31.5	29.4	60.9
	St. John's				Pittsburgh
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	82.6	115.7	98.6		85.7	108.9	96.9
eFG%	52.6	40.5	46.3		45.7	60.9	53.3
TORate	31.8	10.2	21.6		23.7	28.7	26.3
OR%	22.2	33.3	26.7		27.3	28.6	28.1
FTA/FGA	47.4	109.5	80.0		52.2	26.1	39.1
FTM/FGA	31.6	81.0	57.5		26.1	17.4	21.7
ARate	66.7	62.5	64.7		77.8	58.3	66.7
Blk%	4.3	0.0	2.5		8.7	0.0	4.3
Stl%	14.8	3.3	11.6		8.9	18.0	13.0
PPWS	1.12	1.06	1.09		0.94	1.24	1.08
2FG%	43.8	41.2	42.4		40.0	61.5	50.0
3FG%	66.7	25.0	42.9		37.5	40.0	38.9
FT%	66.7	73.9	71.9		50.0	66.7	55.6
%2FG	53.8	41.2	46.7		44.4	50.0	47.5
%3FG	23.1	8.8	15.0		33.3	37.5	35.6
%FT	23.1	50.0	38.3		22.2	12.5	16.9

The pace was Pittsburgh's all the way. Neither team managed more than six points on fast break opportunities. Ashton Gibbs' third foul -- he grabbed DJ Kennedy after the St. John's guard picked Travon Woodall's pocket and was closing in as a one man fast break -- was the favored tactic to prevent the easy, close in buckets. Gibbs, whose return to the Pittsburgh rotation was overshadowed by the loss, scored a game 26 points 8-14 (6-9, 2-4) and 4-4 shooting for a remarkable 67.9% eFG% and 1.64 PPWS.

Halftime Adjustments
Both teams did a great job holding the other to <1.00 point per possession through the first half (divide the ratings in table above by 100). Though the pace did not change (it became even more deliberate), both teams scored afar more easily. For Pittsburgh, points came through field goal conversion as suggested by their 60.9% eFG% (12-23 from the field). St. John's by contrast had a field goal conversion rate reminiscent of last season, but compensated with reduced turnovers (turnover rate was 10.2%) and trips to the line (their FTA rate was 109.5%), which outnumbered their field goal attempts.

Notes and Observations
1. Johnnies' guard, and Pittsburgh native DJ Kennedy, a graduate of the famed Schenley High School, picked up three fouls in the first half -- the third a technical after the guard made a face in response to his second foul call -- and played only eight minutes in the second half. Kennedy, who scored 11 points picked up his fourth foul less than two minutes into the second half, and sat for much of the second frame, taking one of St. John's most consistent scoring threats off the floor.
2. Rehabbed Ashton Gibbs was the only Pittsburgh player to score more than 10 points. Gary McGhee, saddled with his fourth foul at the 10 minute mark of the second half and forced to sit for nearly seven minutes, scored seven points. Nasir Robinson and Travon Wooodall, both also carrying four fouls, scored six points.
3. St. John's remarkably matched Pitt on the boards, snagging 31 loose balls. Dixon used a rotation of Talib Zanna, Lamar Patterson and Dante Taylor with Robinson and McGhee. Dixon's problem was rebounding versus scoring. With McGhee and Robinson he had scorers, but the tandem seemed less effective on the boards than Taylor with McGhee. Taylor grabbed five boards in 19 minutes of play to Robinson's two boards in 29 minutes.
4. St. John's was paced by Dwight Hardy who scored 19 points in 32 minutes of play. Other double digit Johnnies included the foul plagued Kennedy (11 points) and Justin Burrell, whose size and length posed a match-up problem for Pitt. Burrell, who logged 34 minutes of play off the bench hit 15 points and pulled down eight rebounds.

Lucky Charms?
"Yes! Every time we credential you, we win!" was St. John's SID's response to Rush the Court's request for courtside access to run a live blog when Pittsburgh visited St. John's at Madison Square Garden.

Because This is a Villanova Blog...
The St. John's staff wore suits, no ties, and white running shoes to the game. This has become the preferred attire since the Coaches vs. Cancer "shoeless" game last month. Coach Lavin was asked if he was assuming a Louie Carnesecca-like superstition given the Johnnies' recent run of good games. "No" he replied and talked about realizing how much more relaxed he was without the tie. When asked if he was really willing to concede the "Best Dressed Big East Coach" battle to Villanova's Jay Wright, Lavin chuckled "Jay Wright is George Clooney" he replied, confessing "I am attracted to Jay Wright. And my wife knows I am attracted to Jay Wright..." The laughter that rolled through the room was easy and genuine. The winning team's press conference is always more fun.

Earlier in the presser Justin Burrell was asked about tension in the St. John's huddle at the under five minute timeout with the Johnnies down two. What plays were discussed the forward was asked. "None" he replied. "The coach told us to enjoy ourselves". The response begged for a followup, and to Lavin, who entered the room and took the podium after Burrell and Hardy departed, this was the first topic touched. "A matter of miscommunication..." replied Lavin "They were obviously down as the guys on the court walked over to the huddle...I decided to try to lift their spirits rather than go over specific plays..." His next lines brought back memories of Coach Massimino's now famous "pasta" half time speech during the Wildcats' Regional Final versus North Carolina. "...I told them to enjoy the moment. Here they were, playing the game they love, with their best friends, in front of their fans in Madison Square Garden. It does not get better than this...go out and enjoy playing the game..."

Numbers...Next...
Pittsburgh takes their third loss of the season and second in conference play, putting their record at 24-3 and 12-2 respectively. The Panthers' road trip continues with a stop in Morgantown, WV to face the 'Eers on Thursday. St. John's record now stands at 17-9 overall and 9-5 in conference play.

2010-11 Preview -- St. John's Red Storm

Too Busy for the Details?
Given much the same squad as the team entering the 2010 season, there is the temptation to simply cut and paste last season's preview, but this season there is something different...the coaching staff. Can Coach Lavin solve the 32 minute problem? For the past three seasons the Red Storm Nation has debated whether the stalled progress is due to the players (not Big East-level personnel) or the staff (not Big East-level personnel). This year we find out. I am betting it was the staff.  Prognosis -- A 2nd quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2011	2010	2009
%Min	89.5	93.4	64.2
%Pts	90.3	95.1	28.2
%FGM	90.8	96.7	57.7
%3FGM	92.1	97.9	26.1
%OReb	87.8	93.1	77.4
%DReb	87.5	95.2	72.4
%TReb	87.6	94.4	74.0

Coach Roberts brought in a very large freshmen class in the fall of 2007. While large entering classes were common in Queens during the Roberts Era, the class of 2011 was unusual; it stayed around (and was reasonably healthy) for more than one season. The staff added JUCOs Dwight Hardy and Justin Brownlee in 2009-10 and both return this season, giving head coach Steve Lavin a deep and experienced squad for his inaugural season.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2009-10		2008-09		2007-08
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Off Eff. Overall	106.2	98	100.9	181	98.0	215
eFG% Overall	47.3	238	46.2	284	45.8	313
FTA/FGA Overall	31.6	307	37.2	158	35.0	215
Pt. Dist. 3FGA Overall	25.7	207	18.7	330	25.3	256
3FGM% Overall	33.4	205	29.9	319	33.3	243
3FGA/2FGA Overall	29.5	251	24.4	328	29.0	289
Def Eff. Overall	92.8	51	96.5	77	93.2	50

The problem is not defense, as the Johnnies have consistently ranked in the top 20% nationally (or better -- see Def Eff. Overall above) in each of the past three seasons. Indeed, tough in-your-face defense was always a trademark of Norm Roberts' Red Storm squads. The offense is inside-oriented (see Pt. Dist. 3FGA in table above), though the inside/outside stat (Pomeroy's formula), at 2.13, would suggest something more balanced, a notion that is however, an illusion. Note the numbers for FTA/FGA Overall in the table above. "Inside play" almost always involves contact (and trips to the line). The Johnnies tooks a lot of 2 point field goal attempts, but they did not force the issue and get to the line from that offense. Defenses did not foul much because they knew what St. John's was going to do and when they would do it.

	For the Record...
	2009-10			2008-09			2007-08
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	17	16	0.515	16	18	0.471	11	19	0.367
Big East	6	12	0.333	6	12	0.333	5	13	0.278
Post Season?	NIT Rnd #1			CBI Rnd #1			NA

Last season's progress was typical of the Norm Roberts teams -- small and very measured. Though the rotation went 8-10 deep with players who logged two years together, the Red Storm could not escape the conference's fourth quartile.

The Red Storm's Nucleus
Coach Steve Lavin inherits an enigma in the form of a squad from Coach Roberts. Generally recognized as talented and tough (though Doug Gottlieb, ESPN's resident contrarian would disagree -- sorry subscription), the question is whether they are collectively talented enough and skilled enough to compete and win on most nights in the Big East. While many observers contend this cohort struggled with a very loose style of game management, others (like Gottlieb) suspect it might be the players...

On Offense
Player	Min%	ORtg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
D.J. Kennedy	77.4	110.4	25.8	23.5	52.3	6.2	1.15	49.0
Paris Horne	69.3	101.1	18.4	20.9	49.1	4.8	0.99	19.4
Malik Boothe	60.3	89.9	15.3	11.7	42.3	1.5	0.95	46.3
Sean Evans	51.9	95.4	21.1	20.0	46.0	14.2	0.95	34.5
Dwight Hardy	48.1	102.4	23.7	28.0	50.6	2.2	1.06	22.8
Justin Brownlee	44.4	106.3	20.3	23.6	47.8	9.9	1.00	15.3
Justin Burrell	41.4	100.5	19.4	19.2	47.4	6.6	1.04	35.9
Malik Stith	26.3	73.2	15.3	13.6	29.0	2.5	0.64	29.0
Dele Coker	18.7	99.1	11.3	9.7	62.9	8.9	1.14	37.1

Nearly half of the squad (Kennedy, Boothe, Horne, Coker, Evans and Burrell) begin their fourth season together. Though classified as seniors, Hardy and Brownlee transferred in last season (and counter to the trend, stayed), while red shirt sophomore Quincy Roberts and (true) sophomore Malik Stith log their second year in Queens. The offense is wing/front court oriented, with DJ Kennedy taking just over 25% of the possessions (and just under 24% of the shots) when he is on the court. He is also the most efficient player on the squad. Odd because the most prolific shooter often draws the most attention from the defense and tends to be less efficient than his "overlooked" teammates. As players entering their second season with the Red Storm, Justin Brownlee and Dwight Hardy can (potentially) develop larger roles. Hardy was often brought in specifically to shoot in 2010, a role that naturally drew defensive attention (and skewed his Shot% a bit higher than it probably would have been had he logged more time). The challenge for both will be to become even more efficient with their possessions/shots.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
D.J. Kennedy	77.4	16.3	21.5	18.6	2.2	2.2
Paris Horne	69.3	7.7	10.9	15.2	1.3	1.8
Malik Boothe	60.3	7.8	20.9	28.0	0.4	2.3
Sean Evans	51.9	17.9	6.3	18.6	1.4	1.7
Dwight Hardy	48.1	8.0	8.7	15.5	0.3	1.8
Justin Brownlee	44.4	18.1	10.7	12.6	3.9	2.3
Justin Burrell	41.4	19.2	8.6	18.6	2.5	1.1
Malik Stith	26.3	5.0	19.0	24.7	0.0	1.7
Dele Coker	18.7	12.6	2.3	23.5	10.1	2.2

The point guards, Malik Stith and Malik Boothe were remarkably inefficient. While neither was an effective scorer, the root cause was turnovers (see TO% above). Little wonder the two guards played so small a role in the offense for the past two seasons. Unfortunately this the staff has no fresh face to remediate this area in 2011.

Significant Additions
Dwayne Polee. See all those names in the table above? The 6-7, 193 pound forward out of Westchester HS, California is probably more athletic than most of the current front court rotation, but if he is not "Big East ready", will see only limited minutes this season. Check this space next pre-season -- Coach Lavin will have 10 roster spots to fill, and has garnered weekly write-ups this fall with 2011-12 signings.


Explode If...
1. The staff can teach the guards how to reduce turnovers and distribute the ball. If Boothe and Stith can (drastically) improve their shooting and reduce their turnovers, the offense would easily improve 7% or better with little change elsewhere.
2. Learn how to close out opponents. Using fresh offensive schemes will help initially. The trick will be to continue to diversify the offense, adding new elements as the season progresses.
3. The low post play improves. Sean Evans rebounds very well, but has not finished consistently (eFG% 46.0) and does not get to the line enough (FTR% -- FTA/FGA 34.5, in the low range for a bfc). Dele Coker have been practically invisible in the offense the past two seasons, as his Poss% in the table above suggests (about 12%), but his efficient shot conversion (eFG5 was 62.9; PPWS was 1.14) was sabotaged (offensive efficiency was 99.1) by a very high turnover rate (23.5).

Implode If...
While it is difficult to see how a group that has played together as much as this squad could implode, injuries have historically distracted the squad and sidelined the more efficient scorers and leaders at crucial times (Justin Burrell is sidelined 4-6 weeks to start this season). The fans and players are ready to see a much better result this season, let's hope they can weather any early disappointments/surprises.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
The Coach will make his debut on the road (versus the WCC's Saint Mary's), the price I guess, for one of the first slots in ESPN's Basketball Marathon (11/16 into 11/17), and probably the sternest test of the out of conference schedule (OOC) -- outside of Gaels no opponent is projected to finish higher than the middle of their respective conference -- before the Holiday Festival. The Johnnies will meet Davidson and possibly Northwestern in the Holiday Festival before opening the Big East season in Morgantown, WV. Running the OOC table is probably optimistic, but more than one loss would have to be a disappointment, as the Johnnies will have to rely on their conference schedule (late season meetings with Duke and UCLA excepted) for the numbers to put them in the conversation for an NCAA bid.

Of St. John's mirrors, (Cincinnati, Georgetown and Notre Dame), the Hoyas are expected to dominate (though a front court matchup with Julian Vaughn and Sean Evans might be interesting), but the Bearcats and Irish will compete for a spot in the second quartile. The Red Storm will have to beat them to gain advantage in a tie-breaker. The first six games will be crucial, typical of a zero-tolerance Big East schedule. After West Virginia, the Johnnies play Providence (A), Georgetown (H), Notre Dame (A), Syracuse (H) and their closeout with Notre Dame (H). 3-3 would be good, fewer than two wins would be very bad for their chances of finishing out in the upper division. While two of the projected top teams are lodged in the last five games, a motivated St. John's squad should be able to go no worse than 2-3 (but hopefully 3-2 or better) against that slate (Pittsburgh, DePaul and South Florida at home, Villanova and Seton Hall on the road).

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: St. John's at Rutgers

by Ray Floriani

PISCATAWAY, NJ - Seizing the momentum of Saturday’s win over Notre Dame, Rutgers scored an impressive 84-72 victory over St.John’s at the RAC on Tuesday.

In a 69 possession game, the Efficiency and Factors:

	Off		FTA
	Eff	eFG%	FGA	OReb%	TO%
St.John’s	104	48	19	34	16
Rutgers	122	64	25	44	23

The first minute gave us little indication of what was in store:

1. Rutgers wins tape misses 12 footer.
2. St.John’s : Paris Horne hits three pointer
3. Rutgers in possession as minute ends.
3-0 St.John’s

Actually the first minute did tell us something, St.John’s would be shooting jump shots a good percentage of the evening.

Rutgers coach Fred Hill did not even mention the dreaded TO factor. No need. Shooting is a remedy that cures many woes. The Scarlet Knight 122 offensive efficiency was largely due to the gaudy 64% eFG percentages. Rutgers shot 31 of 55 from the floor (56%) which included 8 of 15 (53%) beyond the arc. Credit good ball movement, making that extra pass and several transition opportunities for the outstanding efficiency.

Mike Rosario had another huge game. He scored 18 the first half against ND and had 21 the first twenty minutes tonight. Rosario was 13 of 22 (3 of 5 from three) on the night. The Rutgers soph led all scorers with 33 points while adding 5 boards. Most impressive was the face he did not attempt to force the issue and passed up shots in favor of teammates with better looks.

Jonathan Mitchell added 18 points 6 boards and had two huge field goals to stem a late game St.John’s run. Hamady Ndiaye was dominant in the paint. The Rutgers senior center scored 19 points, grabbed 9 boards and rejected 9 shots. As Fred Hill noted who would have thought three years ago the day would come that Ndiaye would post these numbers in a Big East game. There is no stat for altered shots. Too bad because Ndiaye had a Bill Russell style mark on the game.

DJ Kennedy led St. John’s with 27 points, shooting (5 of 9 from three), which allowed the Storm to make a late run. Overall, St.John’s was forced into a jump shooting game. No surprise as that has been the script for them this season. The two main inside players for St. John’s are Sean Evans and Justin Burrell. Evans scored 11 but mostly on put backs or baseline drives. Burrell added 10 with four of his five field goals from 12-15 feet. The Storm lack a true classic and consistent post up threat.

Beside offensive efficiency credit Rutgers with good old fashioned hustle. The offensive rebounding percentage stat is a testament to that. In raw numbers Rutgers won the battle of the glass 38-28.

Credit Hill for utilizing a 2-3 zone as part of the defensive game plan. Rutgers used mostly man to man defense but the 2-3 helped rebounding, created transition opportunities and forced St.John’s to lose movement on offense and settle for jump shots.

Sharing the ball. Rutgers assisted on 58% (18 assists on 31 FGM) of their field goals. St.John’s had 11 assists on their 27 (41%) field goals which suggests a more off the dribble shooting approach. From an offensive standpoint it was simply an impressive night for Fred Hill’s club.

St. John’s is 12-9, 2-7 in Big East while Rutgers is 11-11, 2-8. Both clubs are back in action Saturday. Rutgers visits Louisville while St. John’s hosts West Virginia at Madison Square Garden.

“I’m disappointed. We didn’t make plays. We didn’t take away their (Rutgers) strengths and we missed opportunities.” - St. John’s coach Norm Roberts

“The kids have been working really hard. We have had a tough stretch and they (players) never stopped believing. Now they are getting rewarded.” - Rutgers coach Fred Hill

The RAC in the 1^st half

Guest Contributor Pico Dulce: Preview of Villanova at St. John's

Villanova travels to Madison Square Garden on Saturday to play the St. John's Red Storm. Pico Dulce of the east coast bias and Johnny Jungle Blogs shares his thoughts about the St. John's Red Storm and what the Wildcats can expect when they tip off at noon.

Things you should know about St. John’s:

The fans have found the team frustrating in Big East play. Personally, I believe people’s expectations were pretty high for a team that won 6 conference games (and a Big East tournament game) last year, beating the lame, the weak, and Notre Dame and Georgetown, who played like a little bit of both. St. John’s scored about .11 points per possession less than their opponents last year, and returned the same core. Familiarity breeds greater efficiency in college ball, but that’s a huge gap to make up – even if the name stars left the league. So far this year, the team is .5 points per possession below their opponents.

Something I strongly believe: this team is improved. “Improve” is a far cry from “contend”, and the fans are upset about not contending. Rightfully so; 6 years, with any extra leniency for the moral high ground and better relationships with AAU players, is a long time for fans to watch a team struggle to get near .500 on the season. And coming off another loss where the Red Storm seemed to have a chance, and once again lose it in a flurry of poor play, defensive breakdowns, and the usual scoring drought… things aren’t going well.

St. John’s has a lot of depth – and now Anthony Mason Jr. is back. So 10 guys will see court time in most games. The team’s point guards are not scorers; the points come generally from a plethora of wing players. Style-wise, you’ll see a lot of ball screens with the occasional off-ball screen for a shooter; St. John’s doesn’t pick and roll much, the screens are intended to give the ballhandler a clearer look at the basket. Defensively, there will be some token pressure and the occasional zone look, but the team is best – and usually – in the halfcourt man with bigs coming out to bother opposing ballhandlers.

The closest thing to an alpha dog player for St. John’s is DJ Kennedy, who will go to the basket in crucial midgame situations; his jump shot is vastly improved, his drives are crafty, and his rebounding is solid. At the end of games, Dwight Hardy has been the guy; he can drive and shoot the 3-pointer. Against smaller teams, Justin Brownlee and Sean Evans are solid rebounders and can score off the dribble… or make mistakes off the dribble. Paris Horne is a scoring threat from the outside; when he drives to the hoop he never seems to get the call. Justin Burrell has been more aggressive in looking for his shot. Anthony Mason Jr. hasn’t been crisp with the jump shot yet, but contributes with rebounding and length on defense.

Speaking of defense, Dele Coker has made some strides this year in playing without fouling, rebounding better (I am surprised he wasn’t credited with any boards against U Conn, he was positioned well on the glass and boxed out) and swatting shots. Burrell and Justin Brownlee can block some shots as well. Paris Horne is considered the team’s tough perimeter defender, but DJ Kennedy can defend well.

Thanking Pico for his thoughts, I want to add that I will be at the Garden, hosting a live blog for the folks at Rush the Court. After you open the game thread on your favorite message board, open a second tab, come over to Rush the Court and contribute to the commentary and dialog live from the game.

Preview 2009-10 -- St. John's Red Storm

Too Busy for the Details?
The Johnnies return 93% of their minutes. They return all 5 starters. They bring in 2 JUCOs, 2 High Schoolers who could be missing pieces, and they bring back a red shirt 5th year senior. They also bring back an accumulated 25 losses in the last 2 season of Big East play, balanced against 11 wins. The losses, it seems, may have made a stronger impression so far. Back in 2007 the Red Storm was climbing out of the crater left by Mike Jarvis' 2004 meltdown, but Norm Robert's program lost ground in 2008 as Roberts, with the passing of a modest but productive class, had to integrate a small battalion of players, with candidates at virtually every position. The freshmen of 2008 are juniors in 2010. The direction of wins is favorable, the preponderance of returning minutes, scoring and rebounding are all favorable. In every season it seems that (at least) one program takes a big, 8 or so standing jump. Will St. John's be the program that takes the Big Jump, or one that makes another small, but positive adjustment? Prognosis -- A 3rd quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2010	2009	2008
%Min	93.4	64.2	43.6
%Pts	97.1	55.7	39.5
%FGM	96.7	57.7	39.2
%3FGM	97.9	26.1	47.9
%OReb	93.1	77.4	38.6
%DReb	95.2	72.4	42.3
%TReb	94.4	74.0	41.2

Backsliding with the decline of minutes (changeover of players) is fairly common in all but deep, stable elite programs. The 6 game swing downward swing (2 fewer wins, 4 more losses as the Big East added two more games to the conference schedule) in 2008 is troubling. 2009 produced a modest 2 game swing (+1 win, -1 loss). The very high percentage in returning minutes, points and rebounds suggest St. John's will improve -- the question is how large a swing will this class of juniors produce?

	According to Pomeroy...
	2008-09		2007-08		2006-07
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Overall ORtg	100.9	181	98.0	215	103.0	150
Overall DRtg	96.5	77	93.2	50	95.2	74
Big East ORtg	94.3	13	90.1	15	92.9	13
Big East DRtg	105.2	9	102.2	8	101.5	11
Four Factors -- Overall
All Off. eFG%	46.2	284	45.8	313	47.4	259
All Off. TOv%	21.8	251	22.6	266	21.5	185
All Off. OReb%	37.9	27	33.2	155	32.1	219
All Off. FTA/FGA	37.2	158	35.0	215	34.5	211
All Def. eFG%	50.2	220	49.5	151	47.1	57
All Def. TOv%	20.6	146	21.7	135	19.9	235
All Def. OReb%	32.0	137	31.6	111	35.6	269
All Def. FTA/FGA	35.5	155	40.3	248	33.1	97
Four Factors -- Big East Only
BE Off. eFG%	44.9	14	44.1	16	45.7	14
BE Off. TOv%	22.4	15	22.7	16	20.6	11
BE Off. OReb%	37.3	4	31.8	12	30.8	14
BE Off. FTA/FGA	36.8	5	37.3	9	27.2	16
BE Def. eFG%	53.3	15	52.6	15	49.9	13
BE Def. TOv%	19.7	7	21.0	4	18.5	11
BE Def. OReb%	31.0	2	28.5	1	33.2	7
BE Def. FTA/FGA	34.6	9	39.0	10	31.6	6
Miscellanious
All Gms Cons	26.1	336	21.5	212	25.4	320
All Gms Luck	-.008	160	-.022	197	+.030	77

Not obvious from the Offensive/Defensive Efficiency tables (above -- Big East games only) is the large gap between the #12 ranked Hoyas (101.4) and the #13 ranked Johnnies (94.3). That -7.1 (points per 100 possessions) forms a chasm between the #1 - #12 ranked teams and those ranked #13 - #16, suggesting there was quite a separation between teams in the upper 3 quartiles and those in the 4th quartile. While the Johnnies have made modest year-over-year improvement in their offensive efficiency, they continue to function well below the conference average, especially eFG% and TOv%. Red Storm players had problems converting possessions into points -- they lose the ball a lot but even when they shoot, chances are less than 50% that it will produce points. Strong ratings in rebounding (the silver lining...they do get relatively more 2nd chance opportunities than their Big East counterparts) and getting to the free throw line (suggests a good part of their offense comes in the paint) are overwhelmed when balanced against shooting and turnovers. Middle of the conference defensive rankings for forcing turnovers (TOv%) and rebounding (OReb%) were undermined by terrible shot defense. Compounding the their shot defense woes, Red Storm players tended to foul as well -- a symptom of "late to the shooter" shot defense? Red Storm opponents may have had relatively fewer 2nd chance scoring opportunities, but since they converted at an effective rate >50%, the value of the Johnnies' defensive rebounding was somewhat diminished.

	For the Record...
	2008-09			2007-08			2006-07
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	16	18	0.471	11	19	0.367	16	15	0.516
Big East	6	12	0.333	5	13	0.278	7	9	0.438
Post Season?	CBI/Rnd 1			No			BET/Rnd 1

The Johnnies' Nucleus
Coach Roberts will have another season to work with the colossal class he brought in back in 2007. Though he lost 2 players from 2008, neither was a starter/critical member of the Johnnies 2009 rotation. The question is how much progress will this group of players make during the season, and whether, from among the returning bench/rotation players or the newcomers, he will find the players who can address some of St. John's historical weaknesses.

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
D.J. Kennedy	86.2	106.1	21.2	20.1	45.6	5.5	1.05	56.2
Paris Horne	83.7	105.8	21.8	25.9	50.8	4.8	1.05	20.9
Sean Evans	68.6	96.7	21.9	21.1	51.4	11.7	1.04	44.6
Malik Boothe	61.8	81.8	17.0	13.9	37.6	2.2	0.84	34.5
Justin Burrell	60.4	90.5	21.3	19.9	45.9	5.4	1.00	50.6
Q Roberts	47.2	85.3	17.9	18.3	41.3	4.1	0.90	22.3
Rob Thomas	28.9	108.8	23.0	25.4	51.1	16.0	1.04	42.6
Dele Coker	22.7	85.4	16.4	14.9	46.2	9.1	0.99	26.2

Additional offensive "output" has to come either from the players who dressed last season (or for Mason, the season before), or from new players. Looking at the veterans, improvement/growth from Quincy Roberts will come anyway. Kennedy, Evans, Burrell will have to become more efficient even as they become more prolific. If Coker, Boothe, Burrell and Roberts cut down on turnovers, each would improve his offensive efficiency. The team could use an accomplished point guard. A pretty tall task, not impossible, but difficult.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Kennedy	86.2	16.9	17.7	17.4	1.3	2.6
Horne	83.7	6.3	14.1	16.2	1.6	2.8
Evans	68.6	17.6	5.0	20.3	1.1	2.2
Boothe	61.8	8.6	24.7	31.0	0.3	2.7
Burrell	60.4	15.0	6.4	23.7	3.2	0.8
Roberts	47.2	11.1	11.0	26.3	0.5	1.8
Thomas	28.9	13.0	1.8	10.5	2.4	2.0
Coker	22.7	16.1	4.5	30.3	1.7	10.9

Kennedy, Evans and Coker form a good corps of defensive rebounders, even if there is no dominant defensive rebounder. Coker has a noticibly good block percentage, but is hampered with a 30% turnover rate. He gives away 3 of every 10 possessions he gets.

Significant Additions
Coach Roberts brings in only 4 recruits this season, a departure from past practice when the staff brought in jumbo recruiting classes only to turn out 2 - 4 players the next off season. Hopefully with a bit more discrimination at the front end of the process that practice will stop. The incoming class numbers 2 JUCOs and 2 true freshmen. Between the JUCOs, 6-2 #2 guard Dwight Hardy out of Indian Hills CC in Iowa will most likely get early and often minutes. Hardy hit 3s at a 45.3% clip while playing at Indian Hills, so he will bring some much needed outside shooting to Queens. Although the Johnnies return 93% of their 3FGMs from last season, this was a problem area for their offense. Hardy will help. 6-7 #3 Justin Brownlee joins a crowded wing contengient, and will compete with Evans, Kennedy and Mason for minutes. Between the freshmen, 5-11 point guard Malik Stith might get the early look. Most scouting services did not see much upside to Stith's game, and St. John's aside, most of the DI interest came from mid-majors (Tulsa, George Mason and Winthrop). But observers are nearly unanimous that Stith has an exceptional handle, and is very mobile with the ball in his hands. Turnovers are an area of concern (especially with the Johnnies' pg of record, Malik Boothe), and Stith may be able to address that problem. He will most likely back up Boothe at the point. 6-4 #2 guard Omari Lawrence injured his shoulder severely in the summer of 2008 and having to take time for surgery and rehabilitation, was off the AAU circuit at that (for him and the other members of the Class of 2009) critical time. A heavier (and stronger) Lawrence scraped off the rust for last winter's High School season. Lawrence will have to find his place in an off guard rotation that will include 2009 starter Paris Horne (a junior), JUCO Dwight Hardy and sophomore Quincy Roberts.

Explode If...
1. Coach Roberts finds a healthy and reliable point guard. Malik Boothe was having a rough season when he went out with an injury. Who knows, had he remained healthy he may have worked through the problems by the end season. Roberts, Horne and Edmonson all had their turns and problems. Wing DJ Kennedy functioned as a make shift point forward, leading the team in assists by season's end. Although St. John's is offense-challenged, finding a reliable ball handler who can run the offense and distribute the ball well would allow the staff to overlook a lack of point production.
2. One (or better two or more) of Quincy Roberts, Paris Horne, Dwight Hardy or Omari Lawrence (or Anthony Mason) provides consistent offense from beyond the arc. The Johnnies took 24.2% of their FGAs (Big East games only) from beyond 20-9 last season, possibly the lowest of any team not named Connecticut. There was a reason...they connected on only 30.9% of the 3s they took. A more consistent threat from outside will also make interior scoring easier.
3. The team cuts down (significantly) on their turnovers. While Boothe was the principal culpret, the front court (Burrell, Evans and Coker in particular) had high individual turnover rates. Fewer turnovers translate into more opportunities to shoot.

Implode If...
The team has problems with turnovers and outside shooting. These are weaknesses, not fatal flaws, so St. John's may pick up another win or so relative to the conference even if the current roster fails to address them. The nucleus of this team has gone through the conference wars together two years running -- chemistry should not be an issue now. Short of a catastrophic series of injuries or external disruptions, the team's floor should be no worse than a loss over last season. But these guys should be able to move up this season.


Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
With match-ups against Siena (MAAC champion, NCAA participant) and Temple (A10 champion, NCAA participant) in the Philly Hoop Group Classic, followed by a road trip to Duke and a face-off against Georgia in the Big East-SEC Challenge, Johnnies fans will have a pretty good idea whether this St. John's team will compete in the Big East this season. Going 4-0 through that competition is not realistic (but a real confidence booster should it come to pass), but 3-1 would be a clear indication the Red Storm is ready to move up in the conference. Even a competitive 2-2 would mean progess over last season.

If the Johnnies are to move up, the first 5 conference games pose an excellent opportunity to set out boundaries. After opening on the road at Georgetown, St. John's returns home to host Providence, then on the road again to Connecticut, and a homeward swing for two games -- against Cincinnati and DePaul. The road games might be tough, but the home stands opponents are beatable (Cincinnati also wants to make a statement -- this could be a bellweather game for both programs). 3-2 or even 2-3 would be a promising beginning to the season. Moving up means holding at home while taking a few road games, so the Johnnies' next two road opponents, Pittsburgh and Rutgers, coming at near-mid season present possibly the best chance to determine if the Red Storm is indeed ready to move into the middle of the pack. The February home games, especially those against Seton Hall (2/17), Marquette (2/24) and Pittsburgh (a return date 2/27), are crucial to the Johnnies prospects, as all three will be direct competitors for the mid-conference seeds. Seton Hall, like St. John's, most likely will be nurturing aspirations at a 2nd quartile seed, so stakes hanging on the outcome of the February 17 game may be higher than a single win. The late season road games at South Florida (2/20) and DePaul (3/5) are also winnable, and could well solidify an upward move. If St. John's is looking for 8 - 10 wins, they will most likely have to go 4-2 at worst through their last 6 games.

Roster Moves -- Start of School Shuffle

Back to School
Keeping our fingers crossed there still have been no significant injuries reported. School is back in session and the players continue to workout individually or informally in small groups. And they continue to play unsupervised pickup games. Academic disqualifications have been announced and handled, becoming more a part of the fall planning cycle, rather than the reporting phase of the spring semester.

DePaul -- Freshman Tony Freeland, a 6-6 forward out of Los Angeles has run afoul of the NCAA clearing house and will enroll in the winter quarter (not the fall, as anticipated). Freeland is a Top 200 (or so) player who averaged 21.4 ppgs in his senior year at Freemont HS. The Blue Demons add 4 walk-on players, the result of an open tryout call to fill out the Blue Demon roster for 2009-10. DePaul, going into the season with 6 scholarship players, needs at least 4-5 more players to prepare properly. The staff now has enough bodies to put together a "scout squad" for game simulations. The 4 players, all guards (the tallest, 6-5 Ryan Siggins out of Archbishop Alter in Kettering, OH), include 3 freshmen and a mid-major transfer. 6-4 Jimmy Drew, a junior from Anna, Ill whose last stop was Southeast Missouri State, will sit out the year per NCAA rules, but can practice with the team. More details on the four (plus Freeland) is available via a Daily Herald story.

Marquette -- Maurice Acker decided to complete his eligibility at Marquette. As the number of available scholarships shrank in the face of the mega recruiting class of 2009 assembled to begin the post James/Matthews/McNeal Era, senior Maurice Acker, a transfer who played 2 seasons with the Amigos, decided to leave the team and concentrate on academics so he could complete his degree work in the fall semester. Acker's return may have been "the other shoe" in the early exit of Brett Roseboro episode. The staff has two pgs (a JUCO and a true freshman) lined up to replace Dom James, but Acker, a senior with 2 seasons of varsity experience at Marquette, might be able to bridge the time period it will take to get Johnson and Cadougan up to speed.

Rutgers -- Bouncing back from Coach Hill has decided to take a flyer on a Kosovar player, Muhamed Hasani. Using a recruiting connection from years ago (Slobodan "Boban" Savovic, a former guard at Eastside HS in Newark, NJ), Rutgers brought in a National Team player from Pristina, Kosovo to compete for the point guard spot with JUCO James Beatty, who committed to the Scarlet Knights back in June.

St. John's -- The only program in (sanctioned) action last week took casualties. The Johnnies, taking advantage of a "closing door" on Canadian Excursions, left rehabilitating 5th year senior Anthony Mason Jr. at home. Through the 1st day of play both junior Stanley Burrell and sophomore Quincy Roberts "dropped out" of the rotation. Though both received multiple starts and long stretches of playing time last season, neither had any minutes against Sunday's opponents, Carleton and Ottawa, despite the fact that both were much tougher opponents than Saturday's Quebec Province contingent. I have heard that Burrell may have fractured his hand and that Roberts was held out due to a concussion, though the Athletic Department has not commented on any of the players officially. If Burrell's injury is indeed a fracture, he may be held out through October. Roberts, Mason and Coker (left behind -- visa issues) will no doubt participate in full squad practices.

Seton Hall -- announced that Head Coach Bobby Gonzalez received a contract extension through 2014-15. Coach Gonzalez, at odds with AD Joe Quinlan several times over the past 2 seasons (Jerry Carino adds to the speculation with this blog post from 9/10), received a "vote of confidence" to counteract recruiting trail rumors. The timing, coming at the start of the fall in home visitation period, was not coincidential...according to his extended interview with Adam Zagoria.

West Virginia -- Suspended sophomore Darryl Bryant cleared another hurdle this week when a sympathetic Monogahela County Magistrate Court accepted a no contest plea to one of the three charges pending before it related to Bryant's July 4 hit-and-run traffic. The other 2 charges were dismissed as Bryant was also ordered to pay a $200 fine (and court costs). His June 21st hit-and-run charges were adjudicated in a Morgantown Court last month. A fine of $135 was accepted for a no contest plea, the other charges were also dropped. While the West Virginia University Athletic Department contends Bryant remains "suspended", I suspect the only question is "when", not "if" with respect to Bryant's return to the team.

Assessing the Impact
While no one thought Acker would develop into an All-Big East level player, he has become a solid rotation player for the Golden Eagles. His 3 point shooting is abysmal, but his assist-to-turnover ratio last season was better than 3:1. And he is one of the few point guards to post nearly as many steals as turnovers. Acker will provide leadership and maturity as the staff brings the newcomers up to speed. Acker's return may be the biggest "positive" among last week's roster moves. Justin Burrell's hand fracture is the biggest "negative". While the Johnnies have the deepest squad of the Roberts Era, Burrell has been their man in the middle for the last 2 seasons. And the low post is probably their thinnest spot on the court. Freeland's delay deprives DePaul of a scoring wing who can also rebound. While not projected as an impact player, deferring playing time to the the Big East schedule delays Freeland's development. The walk-ons will most likely see (collectively) little, if any, playing time. The biggest question mark -- Rutgers' Muhamed Hasani without a doubt. Coach Hill adds a Euro-trained pg (think high IQ here...) to his roster, which may pay dividends in practice.

Oh Canada! St. John's North Country Tour

A Very Quick Preview
The NCAA banned these excursions as this fall, St. John's, having signed the contract to play before the ban, is exempt. The Johnnies may be one of the last universities to head North to get an early start on season with an extended exhibition. St. John's is scheduled to play a pair of "double headers" with 4 CIS university squads, McGill University, University of Quebec at Montreal, Carleton University and Ottawa University, over a two day period. Though technically these games are not double headers (St. John's will travel from McGill to UQAM's gym on Saturday, and from Carlton's facility to Ottawa's on Sunday), the schedule is fairly strenuous, and the staff will be forced by circumstances, to reach deep into the bench to keep pace. Between the two days, Sunday's schedule should be the more challenging, as the Johnnies face the Carleton University Ravens, winners of the CIS Championship in 6 of the last 7 seasons. The CIS (Canadian Interuniversity Sports) is the Canadian counterpart to the NCAA, and like the NCAA, they sponsor a nationwide post season tournament to determine a "national" champion. Carleton's coach, Dave Smart, has coached the Canadian National team for a number of years, leading them in a number of international competitions. The Ravens have been a regular stop for high-major teams heading North for the Labor Day Weekend, Coach Smart's squad has faced Villanova and Louisville out of the Big East in prior tours, defeating Alabama and playing Illinois of the Big Ten very closely.

The University of Ottawa Gee Gees are most likely the second most difficult stop on the tour. The Gee Gees finished 2nd in their conference (the OUA - East Division...not sure about the OUA abbreviation) to Carleton last season, and placed 5th in the CIS Tournament. The Johnnies will face the Gee Gees about 6 hours (and a cross town trip) after they complete their game with Carleton. The University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM) Citadins (roughly translated, "townies" or "urbans") finished with an 8-8 record in their conference last season (the Quebec Conference), but did not compete in the CIS Tournament. McGill finished in a last place tie in the Quebec Conference in 2009, though the Redmen did have 17-15 record overall.

There is no reliable way to compare teams from the two organizations, but in the past Carleton has been described as a mid-major level program (RPI in the 70-110 range?), while the others scale down accordingly.

The Red Storm Beats...the Redmen?!
In an unusual case of nom deja vu (no pun intended...ok, maybe), the Red Storm defeated the McGill University Redmen, 90-55, this afternoon in Montreal. The game was competitive for the first quarter as the Redmen led the Red Storm 20-12, but St. John's turned on the burners in the second quarter to take a 52-26 lead into the locker room at the half. McGill never got back into it -- walk-on Kevin Clark was the last of 12 Red Storm players to whom the staff allocated minutes. McGill's website posted a recap of the game. Anthony Mason did not make the trip, the staff is playing it safe after he tweaked a hamstring in Thursdays practice. Only Dele Coker did not see action. Processing the box score (.pdf format) yielded these efficiency stats for the teams...

						FTA
Team	Pace	ORtg	eFG%	TOV	OR%	FGA	Ast%	Stl%	PPWS
St. John's	84.2	107.0	59.0	19.0	35.7	22.4	23.7	22.6	1.21
McGill	84.2	65.4	42.1	33.3	9.4	22.8	52.4	5.9	0.87

The pace, 84.2, tags this as an exhibition game. Among the high-majors, only North Carolina (and a few others) play routinely for that many possessions. Some of the good news...
1. The Red Storm logged an offensive rating of 107.0, one of the best offensive performances they have had in Coach Roberts' tenure. Check the PPWS -- at 1.21 the Johnnies were efficient from the floor, but also finished at the line when they were fouled.
2. Turnovers (TOV) and field goal efficiency (eFG%) showed improvement over last season.
3. Limiting McGill to an offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) of 65.4 is strong. It suggests that St. John's defended the shot well (indeed, note the Redmen's eFG% -- 42.1 is borderline stymied), provided very few 2nd chance opportunities (OR% of 9.4 is crushing on the defensive boards), and forced an extraordinarily high number of turnovers (TOV -- at 33.3 means McGill lost 1 in 3 possessions, most likely without getting a shot off).

A few areas of concern for the staff might include an offensive rebound rate of 35.7 and an assist rate of 23.7. In Big East snagging 35.7% of their misses would be very good, but given the Red Storm's absolute control of the defensive boards, I would have expected something over 40%, most likely in the range of 45-55. Strong shooting (except 3 pointers) may account for level of offensive rebounding. A "good" assist rate tends to depend on the type of offense the staff implements. Traditional half court sets and many (but not all) motion-oriented offenses rely on pick and roll, penetration and kick-out, or screens with catch-and-shoot plays. Frankly I am not familiar with the offense Coach Roberts runs. But whatever it is, it is not designed to have players shooting 18.8% from beyond the arc. The breakouts for the players...

							FTA
Players	Min%	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	ORtg	FGA	OR%	DR%
Hardy	65.0	18.9	23.0	40.0	0.80	77.3	0.0	0.0	4.8
Stith	65.0	11.7	6.9	66.7	1.54	140.5	200.0	5.5	24.0
Lawrence	57.5	18.0	18.2	42.9	0.86	68.7	0.0	6.2	21.7
Horne	52.5	14.2	17.1	75.0	1.50	143.7	0.0	0.0	17.9
Roberts	50.0	16.8	20.9	64.3	1.29	127.2	0.0	0.0	6.3
Brownlee	47.5	27.9	22.0	50.0	1.13	80.7	28.6	0.0	19.7
Kennedy	47.5	22.3	25.1	50.0	1.06	112.2	37.5	15.0	26.3
Boothe	37.5	24.0	15.9	100.0	1.84	132.0	75.0	9.5	16.7
Evans	35.0	28.7	34.1	50.0	1.00	94.8	0.0	30.6	35.7
Burrell	20.0	38.8	29.9	100.0	1.79	122.5	25.0	35.7	15.6
Thomas	17.5	18.5	25.6	66.7	1.33	147.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
Clark	5.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.0	NA	0.0	0.0

I sorted the table by Min%, though the starting lineup was Burrell, Boothe, Roberts, Horne and Kennedy, those five did not get the largest allocation of minutes. The starters in fact logged about 42% of total minutes, again consistent with exhibitions (particularly those which are over by half-time). Along with the familiar faces on offense (Burrell, Kennedy and Evans), it appears that JUCOs Dwight Hardy and Justin Brownlee will bring something to the table. Hardy however, will have to do better than 0-5 from 3 point range if the Johnnies offense is to have a credible perimeter game. Otherwise it just becomes too easy to concentrate on the front court players and shut the Reds' offense down.

The latest word from Montreal has St. John's beating UQAM by 40, 102-62. I will post the breakdown later.