Pittsburgh vs. Connecticut Post Game -- Another Look at Connecticut's Win

Just Your Average Conference Tournament Quarter Final
The 19,375 fans in the Garden for the afternoon quarterfinal session, depending on the team affiliation, may have disappointed with one -- or both -- game outcomes, but they could not have been disappointed with the effort given by any of the four teams. There is something special about games like these, played at a very high level and with great effort. Ray Floriani has graciously shared his experiences at the tournament and his insights into the play each day (his latest contribution, "Big East Tournament, Day 3" is above), looks at the Syracuse vs. St. John's game, so I thought I might breakdown the box score of the Connecticut vs. Pittsburgh game to get an idea of how the Huskies took down the tournament #1 seed (and the conference's most consistent team).

The breakdown by halves...

	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	33.0	27.8	60.8
	Connecticut				Pittsburgh
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	121.4	129.5	125.1		124.4	118.7	121.8
eFG%	56.0	40.9	47.4		68.0	58.3	63.3
TORate	12.1	7.2	9.5		20.7	16.1	18.1
OR%	30.8	56.3	44.8		22.2	46.2	36.4
FTA/FGA	60.0	30.3	43.1		32.0	25.0	28.6
FTM/FGA	48.0	27.3	36.2		28.0	20.8	24.5
ARate	38.5	15.4	26.9		46.7	41.7	44.4
Blk%	12.0	0.0	5.2		8.0	0.0	4.1
Stl%	3.0	3.2	4.8		17.8	8.0	13.6
PPWS	1.25	0.95	1.09		1.42	1.23	1.33
2FG%	52.4	48.0	50.0		55.0	44.4	50.0
3FG%	50.0	12.5	25.0		80.0	66.7	72.7
FT%	80.0	90.0	84.0		87.5	83.3	85.7
%2FG	55.0	66.7	60.5		53.7	48.5	51.4
%3FG	15.0	8.3	11.8		29.3	36.4	32.4
%FT	30.0	25.0	27.6		17.1	15.2	16.2

The pace was more to Pittsburgh's preference than Connecticut's, though the Huskies have played seven games (total) within 4 possessions of the calculated 60 possessions (59 per Ken Pomeroy), posting a 5-2 record in those games. The numbers that really caught my eye (green highlighted above) had to do with shot conversion and rebounding. Note Connecticut was "outshot" 63.3% to 47.4% but kept the score close and actually won! Converting at a rate 15% better than your opponent and losing is the kind of stat that puts deep lines on a coach's face. Three keys to understanding how UConn negated that Pittsburgh advantage can be found with a harder look at the table...offensive rebounding, turnovers & free throw shooting. By grabbing 44.8% of their misses and keeping turnovers to 9.5% (about half of Pitt's turnover rate), the Huskies gave themselves a 58-49 advantage in field goal attempts. Nine additional shots, particularly when the conversion rate drags down to the 40s, (partly a feature of Kemba Walker's tendency to volume shoot, the guard was 8-22 from the field, a 36.4% eFG%) can be crucial. Connecticut nearly matched Pitt's field goals (26 vs. 27). Getting to the free throw line has been crucial for Connecticut, especially since the Huskies' offense works hard to convert from the low post (UConn's 3-to-2 FGA ratio is just over 3:1) and get to the line. Note Connecticut's FTA/FGA was 43.1%, another 15% advantage over Pittsburgh, and surprising given Pitt's emphasis on scoring from the low post as well. The Panthers, given Gary McGhee's foul problems, no doubt shifted to a perimeter attack to offset the center's absence from the low post. Connecticut's point distribution is a bit light on points from beyond the arc. Despite the announcing crew reminiscing about UConn shooters of the past, UConn's generally looks beyond the arc for only 20%-25% of their points. Points from the line however, at 27.6%, is on the mark for the best Connecticut teams. The rebounding numbers are particularly surprising. Pittsburgh is #2 in the conference (to West Virginia) for offensive rebounding and #1 for defensive rebounding. Both teams dominated the defensive boards, but yielded that advantage to half time adjustments. Nevertheless Connecticut's offensive rebounding rate was over twice what Pitt usually allows, while the Panthers were held to an offensive rebounding rate 2% lower than they usually get in conference.

Numbers...Next...
Connecticut, 24-9, advances to meet Syracuse 26-6, 79-72 winners over St. John's in the second quarter final game, tomorrow in the first semi-final game. Pittsburgh, 27-5 overall, will wait to see if they can hold on to their #1 seed (likely, especially if Notre Dame fails to run the table) and find out where they will open their NCAA run next week.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Big East Tournament, Day 3

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY - The action, recap and assorted numbers of importance from day three.

Outside the rain soaked Garden in the afternoon

The scores...

Team	Score			Team
UConn	76		74	Pittsburgh
Syracuse	79		73	St. John's
Notre Dame	89		51	Cincinnati
Louisville	81		56	Marquette

between doubleheaders, quiet time

Game of the Day:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Syracuse	71	111
St. John's	70	104

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Syracuse	50	34	45	21
St. John's	51	26	47	27

Game was tied at 68 with two minutes left. In the stretch Syracuse made the plays and came up with the stops. Last two minutes saw six possessions each. Syracuse had an 11-5 advantage. That is an offensive efficiency 'lead' of 183-83. When St. John's was trailing and fouled to extend the game, the Orange canned 5 of 6 from the charity stripe.

Good signs for the Orange: Brandon Triche, playing well down the stretch, led the way with 22 points. Triche was 4 of 10 from three and 8 of 8 on the foul line. Fab Melo, the seven foot freshman, also playing well of late, scored 12 points and had 4 boards.

Dwight Hardy led St. John's with 22 points as well. Hardy was 9 of 17 from the floor and had 5 turnovers.

The turnover rate was not awful for Syracuse. The Orange committed a total of 19 but an encouraging note. Only three were after halftime.

Virtually every statistical category was close or near even. Again the difference was Syracuse converting on offense and coming up with defensive stops. Especially the last two minutes.

Steve Lavin meets the press

Notes
UConn had a 129-128 edge in offensive efficiency the first game. Pitt shot an eFG% mark of 63%. On the other end, UConn had an outstanding 10% TO rate and an OReb percentage of 52%.

Ashton Gibbs of Pitt led the way with 27 points, hitting 6 of 7 from three. Kemba Walker had 24 points and the game winner to put UConn in the semis against Syracuse.

Notre Dame had an off the chart 146 efficiency against Cincinnati. Irish defense only yielded 86, not too bad. Game was 60 possessions. Versatility showed as ND shot 8 of 16 from three point range the first half. In the first 8 minutes of the final half, six of the Irish 8 field goals were in the paint.

The final game of the night saw a rout on the scoreboard and in efficiency. Louisville had the offensive efficiency gain 119-85. Cards attempted 48% of their shots beyond the arc. Many of the treys came in transition as they enjoyed a 57% eFG% percentage. They shot 13 of 31 (42%) from three. Mike Marra, a 22 point scorer for Louisville in relief was a perfect 1 for 1 from two point range. The sophomore guard went a red hot 6 of 10 from three.

Marquette, once again cared for the ball with an 18% TO rate. Shooting however, was another story. A 3 of 15 showing beyond the arc contributed to a 33% eFG performance and a trip home.

yours truly and Notre Dame cheerleaders

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Big East Tournament, Day 2

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY - The action, recap and assorted numbers of importance from day two.

the Garden is packed!

The scores...

Team	Score			Team
UConn	79		62	Georgetown
St. John's	65		63	Rutgers
Cincinnati	87		61	South Florida
Marquette	67		61	West Virginia

Coverage in person was limited to the evening session. No need to remind anyone but the burning issue of the day was centered around the conclusion of the Rutgers-St.John's contest. Also, to little surprise, officiating was very much in the conversation.

Marquette's Darius Johnson-Odom
meets the media

Game of the Day -- Marquette & West Virginia
The pace and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Marquette	61	110
West Virginia	61	100

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Marquette	52	33	31	16
West Virginia	49	22	28	21

Outstanding care of the ball by Marquette. Overall they had 10 turnovers. West Virginia had 13 but many were the variety of which you pay. Not just throwing the ball out of bounds but leading to an opposition score. Marquette had a 16-7 edge in points off turnovers. Not a huge difference but significant in a two possession game as this.

Defense was a big part, as noted, of Marquette's second half surge. West Virginia led 36-29 at the break but was held to a 78 offensive efficiency. The last eight minutes the Mountaineers managed two field goals. Both by John Flowers and one on an offensive rebound.

Offensively Junior Cadougan broke down the WVU defense by dribble penetration. The Marquette sophomore guard finished (15 points) and was able to find teammates, distributing 5 assists.

West Virginia coach Bob Huggins did a good job mixing defenses. Thought going to a late game 1-3-1 was a good move as it showed Marquette a different look. The 'look' appealed to Darius Johnson-Odom who buried two key three pointers that gave Buzz Williams' club 'separation'. Suffice to say Huggins was back in a man following that second three pointer.

The three was a big weapon for West Virginia. They shot better from beyond the arc than for the game overall.

	FG	Pct.
3 FGs	10-22	46%
Overall	20-51	39%

Kevin Jones paced the Mountaineers with 15 points. The 6-8 junior enjoyed the perimeter hitting 3 of 4. Jones shot 5 of 9 in total. Interestingly his two point percentage (2 of 5 for 40%) significantly trailed the 755 (3 of 4) he hit from downtown.

Cincinnati coach Mick Cronin

Notes
All right, here's the take on game two. Saw the replays but as a long time official (23 years) will only say the crew had a lot to discuss in their post game evaluation.

UConn enjoyed a healthy 115-94 efficiency advantage in the win over Georgetown. Kemba Walker of UConn had a game high 28 points and an impressive Manley efficiency of 28. Walker contributed more rebounds (6) than assists (3). UConn, a solid 17% TO rate. Georgetown, a 24% rate (having point guard Chris Wright out of the lineup is a significant setback) that did not help matters.

Rutgers had a notable 45% OReb percentage. The Scarlet Knights had a better TO rate (22%) than St. John's (24%). Damage was done as the Red Storm (still can't stand that name) had a 19-8 lead in points off turnovers.

Dwight Hardy paced St. John's with 17 points. Hardy was only 5 of 17 from the floor (0-3 from three) but did go 7-9 from the line.

Cincinnati shot 64% from two point range, holding South Florida to a 37% mark from the same area. Bulls lost point guard Anthony Crater (a familiar name to Villanova faithful) late in the first half due to an injury. South Florida trailed by 8 at the half but was routed the final 20 minutes. Coach Stan Heath did not blame the final half meltdown to Crater's absence. But it didn't help.

Both clubs did show good care of the ball. Cincinnati's TO rate was 18%, South Florida checked in at 17%. Bearcats dominated inside with a 40% OREB percentage (South Florida was 28%) and a 36-22 edge in points in the paint.

Yancy Gates of Cincy scored a game high 25 points an 10n of 11 shooting from the floor. The 6-9 junior did not attempt a three, no need to and had an excellent Manley efficiency of 28 (1.22 per minute eff.), in 23 minutes.

Augusts Gilchrist WAS South Florida's inside presence with 16 points 5 rebounds. Sophomore guard Shaun Noriega scored 12 points. Noriega has a nice touch and loves the trey. He was 4 of 7 beyond the arc and 0 for 2 from two point range.

Tomorrow, the quarterfinals. This should be 'feast week', at any rate the Madness truly continues.

Cincinnati cheerleaders

BET South Florida Post Game -- Illusions

That Last Minute Was a Doozy
Up 49-33 at the half, the Wildcats appeared to have shot their way out of the nasty 4-6 run over their last 10 games, which included a four game losing streak. Though Mouphtaou Yarou took a bad spill and left the game at the 4:58 mark of the first half, but even with that bad turn of events, the Wildcats seemed to have the boards and game flow under control. The second half reversal, one which saw the Bulls outscore the Wildcats by 17, 37-20, and win by a point on Anthony Crater's coast-to-coast run with 0:05 on the clock...was stunning.

The Athletic Department website posted the official boxscore and the AP wire story, "Villanova Falls Just Short...". The breakdown by halves...

Opponent:		University of South Florida
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	28.5	27.1	55.6
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	172.2	73.7	124.1		115.9	136.4	125.9
eFG%	72.2	22.2	52.2		52.1	52.2	52.1
TORate	14.1	18.4	16.2		10.5	18.4	14.4
OR%	63.6	25	40.7		29.4	46.7	37.5
FTA/FGA	37.0	77.8	53.3		54.2	69.6	61.7
FTM/FGA	37.0	66.7	48.9		33.3	56.5	44.7
ARate	37.5	0.0	30.0		60.0	45.5	52.4
Blk%	3.7	0.0	2.2		12.5	8.7	10.6
Stl%	10.4	7.8	9.2		3.5	10.5	7.0
PPWS	1.54	0.81	1.22		1.09	1.21	1.15
2FG%	60.0	30.8	46.4		41.7	52.9	48.3
3FG%	58.3	0.0	41.2		41.7	33.3	38.9
FT%	100.0	85.7	91.7		61.5	81.3	72.4
%2FG	36.7	40.0	37.7		30.3	48.6	40.0
%3FG	42.9	0.0	30.4		45.5	16.2	30.0
%FT	20.4	60.0	31.9		24.2	35.1	30.0

Fast or Slow? Good Offense = Good Defense?
A few posters in the 'Nova Nation wanted to know why the 'Cats "took the air our of the ball" in the second half. The two halves however showed the number of possessions varied by one -- maybe two -- between the two halves. Ex Wake Forest head coach Dino Gaudio suggested at one point that Coach Wright wanted to slow the game down, win big and do some confidence building for a squad that, at this point, must be seeing shadows. Pomeroy shows this game as one of the three lowest possession games this season. Villanova scorched the Bulls for 1.72 points per possession in the first half (the 172.2 in the Rating row, first half column is points per 100 possessions...). That conversion rate was unsustainable over the course of a 40 minute game for any team not named Notre Dame. The overlooked number -- 115.9 -- was South Florida's conversion rate, about 1.16 points per possession. That is a reasonable offensive output, about 0.13 points above the conference average, and tells the reader the 'Cats were ahead by virtue of an unsustainable offensive outburst, not because they had throttled the offensively challenged Bulls, nor because they a produced combination of good offense and good defense. The Bulls' shot conversion rate (eFG%) was, at apporoximately 52% for each half, consistent over the course of the game. By cutting down on turnovers and getting after their misses in the second half, the Bulls were able to hang with the 'Cats and chip away at the lead Villanova built in the first half.

Numbers...Next
For South Florida, Villanova becomes win number 10 in a 10-22 (so far) season. The Bulls face Cincinnati in Round #2 of the Big East Tournament. Villanova's record drops to 21-11, as the seniors, most from metropolitan New York City, play their last game in Madison Square Garden. The Wildcats wait for Selection Sunday to find out where they play next.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Big East Tournament, Day 1

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY - Day one in the books. Already a surprise of note.

Outside MSG early morning

The scores...

Team	Score			Team
UConn	97		71	DePaul
Rutgers	76	OT	70	Seton Hall
South Florida	70		69	Villanova
Marquette	87		66	Providence

Interesting how the opener and nightcap left little drama. The middle games held the most excitement. Decided to focus on a game of the day. At press row as Seton Hall-Rutgers was being played out I was certain this was it. A few hours later the opinion might have been altered. At any rate I will stay with that as greyCat will probably ring in and do a more thorough analysis of the latest Villanova setback.

Tip game one. start of the 'marathon'

Game of the Day -- Rutgers & Seton Hall
The pace and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Rutgers	74	103
Seton Hall	77	91

Both teams scored one field goal in overtime. Rutgers got to the line and capitalized. Defensively they also were able to get key stops. The OT efficiency and pace. Score was tied at 64 after regulation.

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Rutgers	12	100
Seton Hall	13	46

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Rutgers	52	48	26	19
Seton Hall	46	19	27	21

The offensive rebounding rates were close. The other factor getting you to the line is points in the paint. Seton Hall held a 32-26 edge there. The free throw disparity can be traced to Seton Hall trailing in OT and fouling late to extend the game. The other sign was 43% of the Hall attempts were from three point range. Rutgers took 32% of their FGAs beyond the arc.

Amber (L) and Reyna (R) of Seton Hall

Other stats were rather close. Even two point shooting, Rutgers checked in at 50% and the Hall was 47%. Probably the only separation was an intangible of toughness. Not saying the Hall did not have it but Rutgers weathered some adversity to regroup and get back in it. Rutgers trailed by 8 late the first half. Scarlet Knights also saw the pirates Jeremy Hazell hit a potentially momentum changing trey that tied the score just before the buzzer.

Hazell, led all scorers with 27 points. Rutgers’ Jonathan Mitchell paced his club with 25. Game saw three Seton Hall players and one from Rutgers foul out.

Recurring theme seen in the Dayton, Richmond and a few other contests : the Hall had a lead of significance but couldn’t build or sustain. And eventually lost the lead and the game.

Rutgers improved to 15-16 while the Hall finished 13-18.

Kevin Willard, Jeremy Hazell and Jeff Robinson
could only ponder what might have been

Notes
UConn imposed its will getting an 81 possession game against DePaul. Huskies held a significant 121-88 offensive efficiency advantage. Thy also did a job inside holding DePaul to 33% two point shooting.

Scoreboard tells it all

Villanova-South Florida was a mid fifty possession affair. My calculations had the Wildcats with a 128-123 OE gain. As noted it is rare to ‘win’ and OE and lose the game. Twice I have seen Villanova do that this season. Coincidence or just rotten luck?

In a low seventies possession nightcap, Marquette was all over PC with in OE, 116-93. Both teams did have outstanding TO rates as the Friars were 14% and Marquette 16%. Buzz Williams’ club got off to a great start and never looked back. Providence’s efficiency the first four minutes? Zero. They did not score until over five minutes were gone and Marquette had a double digit lead. And counting...

Yours truly with South Florida dance team

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: At the Big East Day 1

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY - The first round of the Big East tournament concluded with three top seeds advancing. The only upset was St. John’s over UCONN in a surprisingly lopsided contest. The scores:

Team	Score		Team	Score
South Florida	58		DePaul	49
St. John’s	73		UConn	51
Seton Hall	109		Providence	106
Cincinnati	69		Rutgers	68

The game of the night. An easy one Seton Hall’s 109-106 win over Providence. And we did not forget the ’OT’, this was a regulation game. The numbers in an 88 possession ’track meet’.

			FTM
	ORtg	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Seton Hall	124	58	46	33	14
Providence	121	51	33	47	16

The Hall led by 29 (76-47) with just over thirteen and a half minutes to play. Providence coach Keno Davis simply implored his team to plat hard to the end. Once the deficit was a manageable 12-14 the Friars used a press that forced a few turnovers. A few threes went down. The Friars hit the offensive glass with a vengeance. In the final minutes it was a two possession game.

Seton Hall had a high free throw rate but did miss 14 from the line (31-45). Jeff Robinson missed a pair with seven seconds to go. The Friars had a great look from three but Duke Mondy missed and Eugene Harvey grabbed the miss as time expired.

Sophomore forward Jamine Peterson was outstanding for the Friars. He led all scorers with 38 points, added 16 rebounds and had 4 assists. Peterson logged 39 minutes and had 10 offensive boards, many of them during the Friar’s late game surge. Bilal Dixon, another sophomore forward, added 16 points , 12 boards for Providence.

Both teams placed five players in double figures. Herb Pope led the Hall with 27 points, 11 boards while Jordan Theodore had an excellent 21 point 6 assist night.

Turnover rate figures were very good for both teams given the rapid rate of the game. Several of Seton Hall’s dozen TOs were crucial as they came when Providence made that huge run. Friars also owned a 23-12 offensive board advantage as exemplified by the Offensive Rebound (OR%) percentage.

While the game was not the equal of last year’s 6 OT classic it will go down as one of the most memorable in Big East Tournament lore. It is the first time both teams cracked the century mark in regulation.

Providence finished 12-19 while the Hall improved to 19-11.

“It was kind of two different games. We got out and played great…with the three point line and 35 second shot clock the game is never safe today. The game is never over until that clock runs down.” - Seton Hall coach Bobby Gonzalez

“The last month we played a stretch of top ten and bubble teams. I am pleased though with the progress and improvement of our young players. We have a good nucleus here. “ - Providence coach Keno Davis

Seton Hall cheerleaders
can breathe easier and smile after the final buzzer sounded

Louisville #02 Post Game -- Villanova Defense

The first half was not pretty, but after a few lead exchanges the Wildcats seemed to break out on top with a cushion of 6-10 points they maintained through the end of the half, going into the locker room with an 8 point lead. A late rally by the Cardinals did not materialize as both of their bigs, Samardo Samuels and Terrence Jennings were hit with 2 fouls apiece. The second half, that is another story. The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Louisville
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	34.8	33.6	68.4
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	97.7	62.5	80.4		74.7	128.0	100.9
eFG%	48.1	32.0	40.4		40.4	63.6	53.4
TORate	31.6	35.7	33.6		31.6	11.9	21.9
OR%	47.1	35.0	40.5		25.0	33.3	28.9
FTA/FGA	33.3	32.0	32.7		26.9	15.2	20.3
FTM/FGA	29.6	20.0	25.0		19.2	3.0	10.2
ARate	81.8	42.9	66.7		87.5	64.7	72.0
Blk%	14.8	16.0	15.4		7.7	3.0	5.1
Stl%	14.6	20.7	17.6		11.3	6.0	8.7
PPWS	1.09	0.73	0.92		0.89	1.22	1.07
2FG%	41.2	27.8	34.3		23.1	50.0	38.7
3FG%	40.0	28.6	35.3		38.5	53.3	46.4
FT%	88.9	62.5	76.5		71.4	20.0	50.0
%2FG	41.2	47.6	43.6		23.1	41.9	34.8
%3FG	35.3	28.6	32.7		57.7	55.8	56.5
%FT	23.5	23.8	23.6		19.2	2.3	8.7

Half Time Adjustments
I am not going to use green and red on this one, another bi-polar Christmas card. The Wildcats built their 1st half lead with slightly better shooting (compare eFG%s) and complete domination of the boards -- on both ends of the floor. Louisville's 25.0% offensive rebounding rate translates into a 75% defensive rebounding rate for Villanova. Both teams lost about 3 in 10 of their possessions, negating any advantage either might have derived from pressing defense. Note also that both teams were close on possession loss through steals (Nova lost 14.6 vs Louisville loss of 11.3). Using the forced turnover stat discussed by contributor Ray Floriani early in February (forced TOs = Stls/TOs), 45.5% of the Wildcat's 1st half turnovers were forced, while they were able to force 36.4% of the Cardinal's turnovers. This is the second game running where the 'Cats have faced a different look after the break, and have not adjusted well to those changes. The Cardinal's 2nd half defense fit the profile of a good Villanova defensive effort -- a high turnover rate coupled with limiting offensive boards. The Cardinals also clamped down hard on the Wildcat's shooting, holding the 'Cats to <30.0% for both 2 and 3 point FGAs.

Ref Notes
Jim Burr, John Cahill and Mike Roberts ran the crew on Friday night. They seemed to have a "let'em play" style for a good part of the game, calling a few in the low post (4 on Samuels and Jennings in the 1st half), but they seemed to ease up on the 2nd half as the Cardinals put the game away.

Next Up
The first round of the NCAAs, opponent to be named Sunday. Can't wait to see these 'Cats take the floor again.

Preview Louisville #02

The Wildcats, having survived a quarter-final thriller Thursday, now face the Cardinals of the University of Louisville in the 7pm semi-final game of the Big East Tournament. Villanova, seeded #4, earned the right to play Friday night by virtue of their 76-75 win over a James-less Marquette squad in the 2pm Thursday quarter-final game. The Cardinals earned the #1 seed by racking up a 16-2 record during the Big East regular season. They then eliminated the Providence Friars (from more than the Big East Tournament...) with a 73-55 thrashing in front of 19,000+ fans at Madison Square Garden.

Previous Meetings...
The Wildcats and Cardinals played a nearly dead even game, won (by a point) by Louisville when the 'Cats left the ball (literally...) on the rim as the clock expired. The game, played back on January 10 at the Wachovia (sorry, I can't remember who swallowed Wachovia last fall...) Center, was the 2nd Big East game for Louisville, but it launched them onto a "perfect" January. They went 8-0 through the month, not losing until they met Connecticut on February 2. After that loss, the Cardinals would lose only one more time, a good old fashioned road beat down at the hands of the Irish.

Pomeroy, Pythagoras...
The log5 probabilities show Villanova has a 37.7% chance of taking this game. The teams will probably play for about 71 possessions, 4-5 above the D1 average, about the pace of their last game. Looking at offensive/defensive efficiencies, My calculations suggest the Wildcats will lose this one by a 3 point margin. Louisville has athletic wings (Williams and Clark), and though they tend to run at about the D1 pace, they can keep up if need be (West Virginia).

What Others Say
Looking around for more previews? Try...
Grab a comfy chair and dig into Publisher's preview & background over at Villanova Viewpoint.
David over at Villanovan Sports Blog provides a recap of each team's season since they met in January.
Over at the New Big East Report the NBE Blogger posted a quick preview complete with generalizations about each squad and links to ticket sites in case you are motivated to get in for the game tonight.

Guest Contributor: Ray Floriani Late Night at the Big East Quarter Finals

NEW YORK CITY -- Scheduling limited yours truly to covering just the 9:30 quarterfinal game at the Big East Tournament. One Big east game is better than none I reasoned. Well, we nearly got two games and what turned out to be a memorable classic. Syracuse 127 UCONN 117 in six overtimes.

	1st	2nd	OT1	OT2	OT3	OT4	OT5	OT6	Final
Cuse	34	37	10	6	11	6	6	17	127
UConn	37	34	10	6	11	6	6	7	117

The tempo free numbers:

	Poss.	PPP	TO%	OR%	eFG%
Cuse	114	1.11	14	42	44
UConn	117	1.00	23	49	44

UConn coach Jim Calhoun noted the game came down to missed opportunities, largely the result of turnovers and poor free throw (24 of 42) shooting. Syracuse took good care of the ball and both teams were close in shooting from the floor. Jonny Flynn played 67 minutes and led the way with 34 points. Each team had four players foul out. A.J. Price (33 points 10 assists) and Stanley Robinson(28 points 14 boards) had superb games for the Huskies. The pair did not get consistent help from their teammates, another huge factor.

Other items of note:

Game tipped off at 9:40 p.m. and ended at 1:25 a.m. That is 3 hours 45 minutes, the longest Big East game ever.

Andy Rautins opened session six with a trey that ignited a decisive 8-0 Syracuse run. In the ’81 championship, the second longest Big East Tournament game, Andy’s dad Leo Rautins tipped in a shot to beat Villanova.

The PA announced signed off saying "drive home safely and good morning".

The pressroom ran out of coffee. Talk about having to tough it out.

About an hour earlier it looked like the game was over as Eric Devendorf drained a last second three that necessitated an official review. After huddling around the monitors for the replay, officials determined the shot was too late.

The Garden sound system operator had a sense of humor. Between overtimes after the band played, the operator ran tunes such as After Midnight (Eric Clapton), Late in the Evening (Paul Simon), Oh what a night (four seasons) and Wait until the Midnight Hour (Wilson Pickett)were selected.

Quote : "Over the years playing and coaching I’ve been involved in over a thousand games. But you couldn’t top this one." -- Syracuse Coach Jim Boeheim

A Log5 Look at the Big East Tournament

I was looking around to see if anyone had done the Log5 calculations for the Big East Tournament. Running the seeds out in 3 phases creates something of a challenge for the computation, but ends up with easier-to-understand results. It turns out John Gasaway (aka The Big Ten Wonk) over at the Basketball Prospectus recruited his friend (and former Basketball Prospectus contributor) Ken Pomeroy to run the numbers. I suspect the complications related to the tournament seeding "forced" John to move his Big East Tournament projections off to a blog posting, located under the title "Big East Tournament Preview: A Pomeroy Sighting". Note, the Log5 calculation is an exercise in conditional probability, not a Nostradamus-induced quatrain. It measures probabilities of a set of outcomes relative to each other, and should not, therefore, be taken as an absolute prediction of the future.

The Wonk explores a paradox in the computations in which Louisville has favorable computations in the quarter and semi finals, but Connecticut nevertheless has the strongest rating to win the final. The key, as Gasaway points out, is in the combination of opponents each will encounter on the way.

As proof of fallibility, consider that 2 of the dogs yesterday, DePaul and St. John's won out over their favored opponents (Cincinnati and Georgetown respectively). That popping noise in New York City yesterday was bursting bubbles.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: 1st Night at the BET

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY - I covered the evening session at the Big East Tournament. For Rutgers, it was simply an inability to hit shots. They defended well, holding Notre Dame star forward Luke Harangody to 7 points on 3 of 17 shooting. But Fred Hill’s team could not convert their available opportunities. "A microcosim of our season," Hill said.

	Score	Poss.	ppp	eFG%
Notre Dame	61	63	0.97	42
Rutgers	50	64	0.78	36

A 42% defensive eFG% will win you games...but not when you shoot 36%.

The second game was a "grind it out affair" according to Seton Hall’s Bobby Gonzalez. The tempo bears him out.

	Score	Poss.	ppp	TO%
Seton Hall	68	54	1.26	11
South Florida	54	53	1.03	19

Both teams took good care of the ball. The Hall’s superlative TO rate (TO%) plus a 57% eFG% (USF was 51%), contributed to the gaudy 1.26 PPP. Jeremy Hazell led all scorers with 23 points.

A True Pick'em?

I ran a log5 calculation using the Pythagorean Winning Percentages for Big East games only and came up with a probability of 54-46 in favor of Syracuse. When I ran a scoring/pace projection using Pomeroy's adjusted stats (season long) I have a pace of 74 possessions for the game with an adjusted score of 74-72 in favor of Villanova.

In both games Villanova had an offensive efficiency of about 102+. The difference was defense (or Syracuse offense if you are an Orange fan...). In the first game Nova's defensive efficiency was 89.4. In the second it was 122.0. Ouch. Which team shows up today?

Best of luck to the Wildcats!

[update at 4pm EDST] Apparently not! From a very quick look at the ESPN box scores it appears the 'Cats rained 3s and grabbed control of the boards. When the official box is posted I will be back with a few more thoughts. Georgetown is next!