Coaching Carousal Part 2013-02: On the Banks

Trenton New Jersey Makes the World Takes
I remember seeing that slogan on a sign whenever I took the old Pennsylvania Railroad back and forth to college...an out of state school of course. New Jersey may be rated the best place to raise a child in the US, but every September the recently graduated high school class joins a tidal wave of 18-24 year olds who leave the state to pursue their education anywhere but in New Jersey. Successive recessions dating back to the Telecommunications Crash of 1999 and 9-11 have stemmed the tide slightly, but the truth everyone involved in secondary and higher education in the state knows is that the Garden State exports a much higher percentage of their college age students than any other state in the union. And that has been true for at least the last 50 years. The University of Delaware and the state colleges in Virginia have balanced their budgets with the tuition/room and board checks of New Jersey parents; even as New Jersey athletes have been recruited to the rosters of football and basketball powerhouses (and a number of the lesser lights) all across Division I. Persuading those athletes to play for "State U" is the perpetual challenge for Rutgers.

If You Build It...Will They Come?
The Scarlet Knights joined the Big East for football in 1991 and have compiled a 117-151 record over that time. The program under Greg Schiano (11 years, 68-67) turned around a dreadful first decade of BCS football (two coaches, 40-80) to produce seven bowl teams in his last eight seasons in New Brunswick. His successor, Kyle Flood, took a 9-3 team to the Russell Athletic Bowl and lost. The men's football team has consistently earned post season play under Schiano and Flood, not so for the men's basketball team. Though the program earned a Final Four berth under Tom Young (239-116, 0.673) in 1976, the next 37 years and six coaches yielded four bids -- the last in 1991, four years before joining the Big East in all sports.

Rutgers Athletic Directors going back to Fred Gruninger have vacillated between candidates with Rutgers/New Jersey roots (Kevin Bannon, Fred Hill, Craig Littlepage, Bob Wenzel) and those from outside of the Rutgers community and state (Tom Young, Gary Waters, Mike Rice for example). While not uniformly successful (see Mike Rice), the outsiders have produced better records, compiling a combined 362-242 (0.599, four NCAA bids) while the homies combined for a 257-335 (0.434, two NCAA bids) record.

Mike Rice's termination, the seventh consecutive termination going back to Tom Young, put the program back on the market. Lacking a sitting Athletic Director (Tim Pernetti was also fired/resigned as a result of the Rice Scandal), interim AD Carl Kirschner decided to first fill the basketball coaching vacancy before finding a successor to Pernetti. The field appears to have narrowed to another insider/outsider pair, with NBA assistant coach Eddie Jordan, captain of Rutgers' 1976 Final Four squad opposite La Salle University head coach Dr. John Giannini. Jordan, strongly endorsed by NBA Commissioner (and Rutgers graduate) David Stern has connections in the NBA and over eight years of head coaching experience (with three different franchises) at the pro level, he has yet to manage his first collegiate program. Dr. Giannini, a native of Chicago educated at North Central University (Napierville, Illinois), North Texas and the University of Illinois, has 23 years of head coaching experience with stops at Rowan University (Glassboro, New Jersey), Maine and La Salle University. His specialty is building programs. Jordan is the favorite to be named later this week.

ESPN's Brett McMurphy reports that Rutgers has indeed hired Jordan.

Who Put On the Brakes?
My earlier projection of 50-60 now appears too high. While I believed the number of low and mid-major openings would drive the total to the 50+ range, the absence of a "domino effect" among the high-major schools applies a braking effect on the number of openings created to date. The UCLA firing for example brought Steve Alford of New Mexico to the Bruins, but the Lobos promoted assistant coach Craig Neal to the first chair, effectively snuffing the expected chain reaction initiated by Ben Howland's termination and limiting the domino effect to two openings total created by that termination. Firings at power conference schools -- Minnesota, Northwestern, Rutgers, Southern California, Texas Tech and UCLA so far this cycle -- should have the kind of multiplier effect that would create between 6 and 11 additional openings, accounting for between 12 and 17 total vacancies. Even though Rutgers is still open and the chain reaction from Southern California has not concluded, the total number of openings generated from those six original terminations is four, a very small multiplier effect that translates into 10 total vacancies (rather than the 12-17 anticipated). The multiplier effect is so small that only three more assistant coaching vacancies have been created to boot. True, Rutgers may trigger another head coaching opening or two, but if the Scarlet Knights opt for Eddie Jordan, that hire will have no effect on head coaching in Division 1 programs. Even if the Scarlet Knights turn to Dr. Giannini, the multiplier/domino effect overall will be still be smaller than expected. Given the total of vacancies to date is 41 (with 29 hired through April 16), expect no more than about 55 before the first Fall Practice.

On Second Thought -- Plotting Trendlines for Big East Teams (pt 1)

What Funny Shapes Can Teach Us...
I liked tj's original post on mapping Michigan State's efficiency trends during the 2008 season when I read read it years ago, mapping the trend over time could be useful. The graph itself however was visually busy; the trendlines got lost as MSU's offensive and defensive efficiencies (points per possession scored and allowed) gyrated, game-by-game. Which leads us to the real problem of measuring team efficiency over a series of games (in conference out of conference, through a tournament, etc.) -- adjusting the performance to account for the competition. The conference regular season, which offered a more balanced schedule than a composite out of conference slate of opponents, should be a better context for judging performance over time. The bloggers over at Maize-Colored Glasses Blog put together an outstanding set of alphabetically correct posts that mapped each Big Ten team's trends over the course of conference play. I was so impressed with the methodologies described in the "Polynomial-centric Recap: Part 1" that I decided to apply the method (unadjusted and adjusted) for a similar look at the Big East. I describe the techniques later in this post. From the bottom up, (alphabetically correct of course) the conference's last five teams shared some features. The conference standings/seeds for the Big East Tournament:

	W	L	Pct.
Pittsburgh	15	3	0.833
Notre Dame	14	4	0.776
Syracuse	12	6	0.667
Louisville	12	6	0.667
St. John's	12	6	0.667
Cincinnati	11	7	0.611
West Virginia	11	7	0.611
Georgetown	10	8	0.556
Connecticut	9	9	0.500
Villanova	9	9	0.500
Marquette	9	9	0.500
Seton Hall	7	11	0.389
Rutgers	5	13	0.278
Providence	4	14	0.222
South Florida	3	15	0.167
DePaul	1	17	0.056

(16 #16) DePaul

Not an ironic commentary on DePaul's season...honest

I rechecked the numbers and calculations when the fish appeared. The unadjusted trendlines look much the same. Coach Oliver Purnell will bring the program along next season, but seeing offense and defense move in such a symmetrical way throughout the entire season suggests (perhaps) that some nights his young Blue Demon squad got it and other nights not at all. The late season "fish tail" was probably a morale-induced slump. More experienced players should make a difference.

(14 #14) Providence

It was the defense...again

Throughout the Tim Welsh and Keno Davis Eras the Friars have been a Notre Dame Lite -- good offense but little defense. This season was no exception, and Marshon Brooks alone could not carry the team night-in and night-out. Lack of progress no doubt the catalyst that led to Davis' departure, Ed Cooley has been charged to turn things around. One common trait of the teams in the fourth quartile is that the defensive efficiency trendline never falls below the team's offensive efficiency trendline. Though everyone of the four team that finished #13 through #16 won at least one game, winning was neither prevalent (all had winning percentages <0.400) nor sustained for any period of the conference season.

(13 #13) Rutgers

An end of season rally...

The unadjusted trendline suggests the Rutgers players were "getting it" -- Coach Mike Rice's system as the season progressed. Though the Scarlet Knights went 1-3 through the last four games, the defense appears to have stabilized even as their offensive efficiency improved. Note that by the 18th game (a season-ending, 74-75 loss to Providence), trendlines for offensive and defensive efficiency seem poised to cross. And the Knights went on to win their next game, 76-70 in overtime over Seton Hall in the Tuesday night round of the Big East Tournament. The trendline chart adjusted for the competition however suggests something a bit different...

...or a modest slump?

Providence and DePaul, teams that finished #14 and #16 respectively, were Rutgers' last two regular season opponents. The Knights' performance (a 1-1 record on games with margins of +3 and -1 points), coupled with the "fish tail" curve of the trendlines suggest that the team was slumping more than rallying, as the season drew to a close. The win over Seton Hall, an instate rival with whom the Scarlet Knights drew 1-1 on the season, does not refute the trend. It will be interesting to see what Coach Rice does with a squad made up largely of players he recruited.

(12 #12) Seton Hall

The trendlines are consistent with a losing record...

The trendlines converge and cross just before the end of the season (for the curious, game #14 for the Pirates was Villanova). The wave motion is similar to South Florida's (see below), but unlike the teams that finished #13 - #16, the trendline for the Pirates' offensive efficiency crossed to the north of their defensive efficiency trendline, an element the Hall held in common with the other 11 members who finished in the upper three quartiles.

Coach Willard's system was beginning to work

The Hall's last two regular season games, both wins, over St. John's and Marquette, were a huge boost for the adjusted numbers. The Johnnies were seeded #5 in the Big East Tournament and managed to draw a #6 seed in the NCAA Tournament, while Marquette finished the Big East regular season with a 9-9 record, drew a #11 seed in the NCAA Tournament and ran to the Sweet Sixteen.

(15 #15) South Florida

The wave pattern?

Having finished #9, drawing an NIT bid and losing Dominique Jones all in 2010, the Bulls were poised for a rebuilding year, and 2011 lived down to those expectations. The wave pattern (the adjusted version above is consistent with the unadjusted trendlines), which features the trendline for defensive efficiency always above the offensive efficiency trendline, by (more or less) a consistent margin, throughout the conference season. With a 3-15 conference record (10-23 overall) and a cumulative conference record of 51-77 in 4 seasons, I wonder, lacking a clear sign of improvement next season, how much longer Coach Stan Heath will pace the sidelines in Tampa.

Methods & Sources
I used Ken Pomeroy's website, specifically each Big East team's gameplan pages, as the data source for each team's offensive and defensive efficiencies for each conference game played (many thanks to Ken Pomeroy for providing this invaluable resource for the past eight seasons). I plotted the data points for offense and defense and then applied a third order polynomial to map the trend line. Those charts are captioned as "Unadjusted" in this and subsequent posts. The conference average for points per possession in 2011 (conference games only) was 1.037. I adjusted each team's offensive and defensive points per possession for each game using the formulas documented by the Maize-Colored Glasses Blog...
offensive adjustment -- (100 x points per possession)/(1-(opponents average points per possession allowed - conference-wide average points per game allowed)). Given the Big East average points per possession was 1.037, that simplified the adjustment to (100 x points per possession)/(opponents average points per possession allowed - 0.037)
defensive adjustment -- (100 x points per possession allowed)/(opponents average points per possession - 0.037)
A strong defensive effort against Notre Dame would be properly weighted versus a strong defensive effort against DePaul.

Offensive points per possession for each team (ordered by PPP Scored):

		PPP
	Team	Scored
1	Notre Dame	1.130
2	Pittsburgh	1.105
3	Marquette	1.103
4	Syracuse	1.078
5	Villanova	1.077
6	West Virginia	1.049
7	Louisville	1.034
8	Cincinnati	1.030
9	Georgetown	1.026
10T	St. John's	1.022
10T	Connecticut	1.022
12	Providence	1.010
13	Rutgers	1.009
14	South Florida	0.972
15T	Seton Hall	0.958
15T	DePaul	0.958

Defensive points per possession for each team (ordered by fewest points per possession allowed):

		PPP
	Team	Allowed
1	Pittsburgh	0.960
2	Louisville	0.967
3	Cincinnati	0.981
4	Seton Hall	0.987
5	Syracuse	0.989
6	St. John's	1.001
7T	West Virginia	1.004
7T	Connecticut	1.004
9	Georgetown	1.037
10	Notre Dame	1.055
11	Villanova	1.062
12	Marquette	1.070
13	Rutgers	1.082
14	South Florida	1.094
15	Providence	1.111
16	DePaul	1.172

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Louisville at Rutgers

by Ray Floriani

PISCATAWAY NJ - Sometimes things like this happen. You prepare, have good , productive practices and are ready mentally and physically. And you literally lay an egg. That was the case as Louisville defeated Rutgers 55-37 at the Rutgers Athletic Center.

Pre-game warmups at the RAC

The efficiencies:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Louisville	60	92
Rutgers	61	61

The all important first four minutes do not always send a portend of what might transpire. Tonight, the first four was on the money. The game’s complexion was dictated very early in that juncture before the first media time out.

At the 16 to go mark, Louisville had a 5-0 lead. The Cardinals had 7 possessions, two ending in turnovers but did knock down a two and three pointer and had a 71 offensive efficiency. On the other side, Rutgers came up totally empty. The result of their 6 possessions:

1. Turnover
2. Turnover
3. Turnover
4. Missed FGA
5. Missed FGA
6. 0 for 2 from the line.

Even a trip to the charity stripe yielded nothing. A bad sign for Mike Rice & co. Rutgers did not get on the scoreboard until Gilvydas Biruta scored in close with 5:11 gone in the game.

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Louisville	46	16	26	20
Rutgers	32	21	24	30

The First Four Revisited
The opening four minutes of the second half, Rutgers fared better with 6 points on 6 possessions (100 efficiency). The Cardinals had four points on their first five possessions (80 efficiency). Rutgers only trimmed two points off the Louisville lead. On the other hand a better start the second half gave added optimism. Trailing by 19 with three minutes left the opening half, the Scarlet Knights had gotten the deficit to a manageable dozen with 16 minutes remaining.

Self Destruction
Whenever the Scarlet Knights looked to make a run the final half, an open shot would not fall or another unforced turnover would rear its ugly head. Rutgers had a 30% TO rate. Credit Louisville defense, but a number of those 18 turnovers were Rutgers own undoing.

The Second Half Was Better
But not by much. The efficiencies in Rutgers case were consistently poor on the offensive end. The aspect allowing them to get within striking distance was defense. The defensive efficiency imposed on Louisville the second twenty minutes allowed Rutgers to keep Rick Pitino pacing the sidelines. But that offense…

	Halves
	1st	2nd	Game
Louisville	100	82	92
Rutgers	59	62	61

opening tip from the press box vantage point.
A great view.

Louisville had the distinction of finishing the game with a better percentage from three than two point range. The Cardinals were 11 of 29 (38%) beyond the arc and 7 of 22 (32%) inside from two point range.

Preston Knowles paced the Louisville attack with 14 points (4 of 9 from three). Kyle kuric added 11 points on 3 of 7 from downtown. Terrence Jennings had a respectable 8 point 4 rebound showing inside.

Knowles and Kuric were both ‘crowd silencers’ for Louisville. Just when it appeared Rutgers might be headed for a run, one of the two would knock down a trey and silence the Scarlet Knight faithful and increase the Cardinal lead.

Rutgers was led by Gilvydas Birutas with 12 points 6 rebounds. The hard working freshman forward was a bright spot on an evening when nothing seemed to click for the Scarlet Knights.

Notes
Louisville is 21-7 and 10-5 in the Big East. Cards have won 20 games now for nine straight seasons. Rutgers falls to 13-14 (4-11). Louisville hosts Pitt on Sunday while Rutgers hosts west Virginia the same afternoon. Attendance was 5,633. Among the attendees was Howard ‘Garf” Garfinkel of Five Star Camp fame.

"If we beat ourselves (18 turnovers)
there is no way we wan beat a team like Louisville
or any team in the Big East for that matter" - Rutgers coach Mike Rice

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Rutgers at Seton Hall

by Ray Floriani
NEWARK, NJ - Opportunity lost.
That is the theme looking back on Seton Hall's week. There was a chance for the upset of Georgetown that slipped away. Yesterday, the in-state rival visited the 'Rock' and the Hall could have used a victory to try to get some momentum. It wasn't to be as Rutgers exited the Prudential Center 66-60 victors.

Outside the Rock the streets are busy
prior to game time

The efficiency numbers:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Rutgers	67	99
Seton Hall	67	90

Hall fans wave their towels

Pace definitely favored Rutgers as Seton Hall was more inclined to get this into a high octane affair. Usually games start fast and gradually settle into the regular pace. The first four minutes of this one however saw the tempo set and dictated. After four minutes the Hall led 5-4 and had 6 possessions (83 OE) to Rutgers 5 (80 OE).

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Rutgers	50	25	30	19
Seton Hall	38	12	30	16

Lights out for Seton Hall introductions

Outside of turnover rate and an even mark in OREB percentage, Seton Hall trailed significantly in the other two factors. A 6 of 27 shooting performance severely affected the eFG mark. Pirates shot 17 of 41 (41%) from two point range which was not exactly lighting it up. Rutgers, on the other hand, showed inside strength going 22 of 43 (51%) from inside the arc.

Seton Hall hit the offensive glass as the Pirates had a 12-10 edge in those 'raw' rebounding numbers. Unfortunately some of the best efforts on put backs were unrewarded as Seton Hall had trouble finishing in the paint. That was one of the reasons Rutgers built a double digit first half lead.

Game action captured from a number of rows off the floor.

Rutgers led 31-23 at the half. The lead hit double digits early second half. Seton Hall trimmed the deficit but never got this to a one possession affair. Outside of a brief Seton Hall lead early in the game, Rutgers was in command.

Dane Miller was listed on the box score as a guard. The 6-7 sophomore swingman for the Scarlet Knights, was a tough matchup for the Pirates. Miller scored a team high 17 points while adding 10 rebounds. He was 7 of 13 (0 for 1 from three) from the field. Miller has the ability to be a factor in half court and transition scenarios. At the other end Miller was no slouch with 3 blocked shots and 8 of those rebounds on the defensive end. About the only area he was deficit was the charity stripe (3 of 7).

A good all around effort was provided by Gilvydas Biruta, Rutgers' freshman forward. The 6-8 Biruta played 22 minutes scoring 12 points and pulling down a game high 11 rebounds (6 on the offensive end).

Herb Pope had a solid 20 point, 16 board, 3 blocked shots effort for the Pirates in 37 minutes. A positive indication that the 68 junior forward is now in full form and game condition.

Hall put four players in double figures but it was a deceptive number performance wise. Pope led all players in scoring and rebounding. Jordan Theodore had 11 point but twice as many turnovers 94) as assists (2). Jeremy Hazell scored 15 points. The Hall senior guard had the opportunities as he attempted 21 shots hitting just 6 (29%). Jeff Robinson checked in with a dozen points and he too had a generous amount of chances, hitting just 5 of 14 (36%).

Rivalry?
The star Ledger had a great pre-game piece on the whole idea of the Seton Hall-Rutgers rivalry. The whole premise is the respective coaches Mike Rice of Rutgers and Kevin Willard of Seton Hall can't and shouldn't obsess on sweeping these games. Seeing the big picture in moving up the Big East ladder is more important. While the coaches and players want to win, the reality is it is a game, or two, as part of an 18 game Big East schedule. It has also been noted when the day comes and the two schools are in the conference's upper echelon, then the rivalry will gain fruition.

Regardless, you have the two Garden State Big East members about 30 miles apart. The different institutional backgrounds, the State University of New Jersey and the Catholic University of New Jersey. The fans, though love it. They light up the chat rooms, fuel the pre and post game talk and genuinely exercise those bragging rights should their school, rooting interest or alma mater get that win. While the respective coaches and players eye that 'big picture' and say otherwise, getting a win in this series has to be a little special and significant.

Numbers
Rutgers is 12-7 (3-4 in the Big East. Seton Hall drops to 8-12 (2-6). Doesn't get easier the Hall's next one is at Syracuse on Tuesday. Rutgers, suddenly on a two game Big east win streak, visits Cincinnati on Wednesday. Former Rutgers assistant Darren Savino, now an aide to Mick Cronin at Cincy, will face his former club. Attendance was 8,929.

No rivalry?
Evelyn (L) and Amanda (R) show proudly display the towel.

Preview -- Rutgers #01

Old Faces, New Beginnings
Rutgers and Villanova will open their Big East seasons in a noon game on Sunday January 2 at the Pavilion on Villanova's Main Line campus. Each squad returns most of their rosters from 2010, so there will be many familiar faces on both sides of the ball. A new/old face will belong to Mike Rice, in his first season as Rutgers' head coach. Right face, wrong context, as Rice came over from Robert Morris University, the school that took Villanova to overtime as a #15 seed in the 2010 NCAA Tournament. The Colonials bowed, by 3 points, after a very spirited 45 minutes of play. This will be Coach Rice's first trip to the Pavilion as a head coach...

	Nova		Rutgers
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
St. Joseph's	W (H)	+9	L (A)	-6
Marist	W (H)	+37	W (H)	+16
Monmouth	W (A)	+40	W (A)	+23

The Knight's best OOC win was a 16 point victory over Miami FL (ACC, 11-3, RPI #26). Their worst loss came at the hands of North Carolina (ACC, 9-4, RPI #21), a 23 point spanking at Madison Square Garden four days before their Big East opener at Villanova. The outcome is actually a step back from their 14 point 2009 loss (81-67) to the Tar Heels. ...

Lineups, Rotations...
...Coach Rice hit the recruiting trail even before he unpacked his bags. Most of the commitments however, will not be seen until next fall. In the meantime, he found a player or two to round out this season's roster, and maybe contribute more than scout team minutes. The Scarlet Knight back court will most likely feature seniors James Beatty (6-2, 190 lbs), a JUCO who joined the Knights for the 2010 season, and Mike Coburn (6-0, 185 lbs), who has started off and on though his four year career. Sophomore wing Dane Miller (6-7, 215 lbs), gives Rutgers a 'tweener who can play in either the back court or front court as the need arises. The front court will feature red shirt senior Jonathan Mitchell (6-7, 225 lbs), a transfer from Florida and High School teammate of Mike Coburn, who will play the #4, and Gilvydas Biruta (6-8, 230 lbs), a freshman out of St. Benedict's in Newark, NJ.

Coach Rice uses a nine man rotation, look for freshman guard/forward Mike Poole (6-5, 190 lbs), sophomore bfc Austin Johnson (6-8, 250 lbs), fifth year senior forward Robert Lumpkin (6-7, 215 labs) and freshman guard Austin Carroll (6-3, 200 lbs) to log minutes, double digits for each would not be surprising. In that group, Poole is the scorer.

Villanova has used the same starting five -- Corey Fisher and Maalik Ways will split the point duties with Fisher shifting to the off guard when the staff wants to push the ball up the floor. Corey Stokes, who has found consistency with his outside shot and emerged as the scoring leader to this point in the season will take the third guard spot, playing mostly on the wing. The front court positions will be manned by Antonio Pena and Mouphtaou Yarou. Pena is a senior who has started off and on, for the past three seasons, mostly on for the past two. Villanova's rotation can go to 11, but nine, the of players who logged time versus Temple on Thursday, is more typical, espeically in a closely contested game. Freshman wing James Bell, whose rehabilitation has proceeded very well, sophomores Dominic Cheek, Maurice Sutton and Isaiah Armwood logged time in the Temple game. Cheek and Armwood saw 16 and 14 minutes apiece, while Sutton and Bell logged a bit less time.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
Rutgers plays a slightly higher-than-average possession game (68.5 possessions, adjusted according to Ken Pomeroy's Rutgers Team Page -- the D1 average is 67.3), while Villanova prefers a pace just slightly higher. Neither team would be uncomfortable with a faster pace, and though Pomeroy projects 67 possessions, 70+ should not surprise. A "Four Factors" comparison when Rutgers has the ball...

When Rutgers has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Knight O	49.6	17.9	32.9	31.1
Wildcat D	42.4	19.0	25.0	30.8

RU's offense ranks, according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report, in the middle of Division 1 (a bit more than one standard deviation from the mean). Rutgers two problems in converting possessions into points comes from weak offensive rebounding (they do not get more than the average for second chance points) and they do not get to the line much. Their shot conversion rates are...average, not terrible, but not elite either. The S. Knights' biggest weakness comes at the line, they do not shoot free throws particularly well. Rutgers does not want to be in a close game that may have to be decided at the line. Villanova has become particulary good at defending the shot, their eFG% defense is ranked #12 in D1. Granted the OOC slate to this point has not featured strong shooting teams, but the difference here suggests a long afternoon for the Scarlet Knights, particularly if they do not start out strong, as the Wildcats are also very strong defensive rebounders (ranked #9). If the Knights miss their shots, they will most likely not get many second chances. The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus Rutgers' defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	50.1	16.9	35.3	42.7
Knight D	45.3	25.2	29.6	38.8

The Knights adjusted defense is 95.4, ranked #84 for Division 1, definitely among the top third of the division. They are credible shot defenders (good at defending both the two and the three, but ranked among the elite at defending the two), and enhance that strength with a very strong turnover rate, typically causing opponents to lose a quarter of their possessions without a shot. When opponents miss, the Scarlet Knights are likely to net the rebound, another significant improvement over last season's squad. Rebounding under Villanova's basket is a strength-to-strength match up that could prove to be critical to the outcome of the game.

Want to Beat Rutgers? Then...
The most significant determinates for this matchup include shooting and rebounding. And it is not close...
1. Hit your shots -- oddly more important than defending their shooting. The S. Knights have lost every game where they have allowed their opponents to post an eFG% of 55.6% or better, and have won every game where they limited their opponents to 48.7 or worse. Villanova averages 50.1%, and has shot better than 48% eFG in nine of their 12 games. Stokes and company may shoot below that 55.6% threshold, but they will not shoot 48% or less.
2. Control the offensive boards. Rutgers grabs 32.9% of their misses, and is 4-3 when they grab a lower percentage. They are 1-2 when they have grabbed less than 28% of their misses. Villanova typically limits opponents to 25%, and has limited opponents to fewer than 32% of their misses in nine of their 12 games.
3. Control the defensive boards. When Rutgers is 1-3 when limited to <28% of their misses. Villanova typically limits their opponents to 25.1% of their misses. Rutgers typically grabs 32.9% of their misses. Villanova has yielded that high a percentage of their opponents' offensive boards only three times. The 'Cats are 9-0 when limiting opponents to 32% or less.

Finally...
...Rutgers' defense is good, but the 'Cats have faced better this season. After the big game with Temple (elite defense, good offense) the fans can only hope that Villanova has had time to refocus and prepare for the Scarlet Knights.

I will be live blogging the game for Rush the Court tomorrow. Drop by and chat if you have the chance.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: North Carolina at Rutgers (at MSG)

by Ray Floriani
NEW YORK CITY - A featured game with North Carolina at Madison Square Garden closed the books on Rutgers non-conference schedule. Unfortunately for the Scarlet Knights, the 78-55 loss left some questions needing resolution with Big East play just days away.

Pre-game warmups
about an hour prior to the tip

Pace & Efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
North Carolina	76	103
Rutgers	76	72

North Carolina enjoys a brisk pace in the seventies while Rutgers is a mid-sixties tempo team. UNC forced the pace and kept the advantage through the duration.

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
North Carolina	56	15	31	21
Rutgers	38	17	17	21

Roy Williams and the Tar Heels huddle

Observations:
The First Four
As noted many times the first four minutes of each half can set the tone for the game. They did last night. North Carolina got out to a 7-2 lead after those first few minutes. A five point advantage with 16 minutes to play the first half is not a huge mountain to scale. But the character of the game was set. UNC established a fast tempo. A tempo they wanted. Even Rutgers coach Mike Rice noted that his club got caught up in the fast pace, rushed things and failed to cash in on early opportunities.

Defense.
UNC mentor Roy Williams said his defense has been sporadic this year. Tonight it was on. The TO rate and Rutgers eFG mark are exhibits A and B. UNC also rejected 7 shots with 6-10 sophomore John Henson leading the way with four.

Rutgers' Offense
Rutgers struggled all night to get an offensive rhythm. Jonathan Mitchell led all scorers with 20 points on 7 of 14 shooting. Other than Mitchell, a few nice Dane Miller (8 points) moves in the paint and Austin Johnson's 7 points, that was it for Rutgers.

Ball Movement...
...for North Carolina was outstanding. The first half the movement constantly found an open shooter on the perimeter. Their half court spacing allowed for penetration and/or kick outs to the perimeter. In transition they always seemed to make that extra pass. Williams was thrilled that none on the starters were in double figures. The leading scorers, sophomore guard Leslie McDonald (14 points) and junior guard Justin Watts (10 points) both came off the bench.

About Determination
Mike Rice frequently alluded to 'determination' in the presser. The Rutgers coach was clearly upset with his team's effort. A frustrating point per Rice was the occasion when a player missed a shot or made a bad play the effort would be missing on the defensive end. "We can't have that," Rice said. "We are about defense we always have to be ready to defend no matter what happened on the offensive end."

The sign says it all

How can Carolina have four losses?
As Roy Williams noted the last two years have seen about a dozen changes in personnel. This is still a young team that on days will look like this and others not nearly as good. Chalk it up to growing pains.

About Barnes
Highly touted freshman Harrison Barnes had 9 points and 3 rebounds in 22 minutes. Williams said, while the game results do not always bear it out, Barnes is making great strides daily in practice.

Dexter Strickland's uncle
grants an interview

Numbers.
Rutgers is 9-3 while North Carolina improved to 9-4. UNC was 11 of 17 (65%) from two point range the first half. Tar Heels cooled off a bit the last twenty minutes finishing at 46%. North Carolina enjoyed a monumental 38-13 edge in points off the bench. Sophomore guard Dexter Strickland, a Rahway, NJ native who starred at prep power St. Patrick's in Elizabeth, enjoyed his homecoming with a 9 point 3 rebound outing. Rutgers starts Big East play Sunday at Villanova.

Rutgers' Mike Rice meets the media

greyCat note -- Rush the Court will do a Live Blog from the Pavilion as both teams open their Big East seasons on Sunday.

2010-11 Preview -- Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Too Busy for the Details?
Year 20 of Rutgers rebuilding program begins with a new coach, the fourth of the rebuilding program. 20 years!? Yes, the Scarlet Knights, having won the Atlantic 10 Conference regular season advanced to the NCAA Tournament under (then coach) Bob Wenzel in 1991 with an at-large bid. New coach Mike Rice assumed control of a program whose fans were discouraged with a programs whose wins did not match the squads talent and roster was depleted by graduation and outbound transfers. If the effort he put into the first five months is any indication, Rice may well defy the trend and point the program in the right direction. In the 2011-12 season.   Prognosis -- An energetic 4th quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2011	2010	2009
%Min	59.9	52.5	85.5
%Pts	56.2	50.8	91.6
%FGM	53.6	54.2	91.3
%3FGM	59.2	47.9	93.0
%OReb	53.8	60.1	76.8
%DReb	55.2	57.1	81.9
%TReb	54.7	58.0	80.4

The returning numbers should be up across the board. Hamady N'diaye was the only graduating significant contributor, and the source of the large drop in rebounding. The attrition came through outbound transfers, a trend the new staff will hopefully be able to reverse.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2009-10		2008-09		2007-08
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
BE Off Eff	90.7	15	91.8	16	88.4	16
BE Def Eff	113.7	15	106.0	11	105.4	12
BE Eff Diff	-16.7	16	-14.6	15	-17.0	16
BE Off eFG%	47.6	12	45.0	13	45.2	15
BE Off TOv%	21.4	15	22.8	16	22.5	15
BE Off Reb%	34.3	10	33.3	12	28.2	16
BE Off FTR%	29.2	15	23.3	16	32.2	14

Running a multi-year double digit negative efficiency differential has to be put on the staff. A single season might be explained by a talent gap, but when the squad has All-Conference talent and the trend line barely moves, the staff is offering little by way of player development. Or the players are not listening. If his stint at Robert Morris is any indication Rutgers fans should see a more aggressive defense that forces turnovers and contests the defensive boards.

	For the Record...
	2009-10			2008-09			2007-08
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	15	17	0.469	11	21	0.344	11	20	0.355
Big East	5	13	0.278	2	16	0.111	3	15	0.167
Post Season?	BET Rnd #1			BET Rnd #1			NA

The Scarlet Knights' Nucleus
The cupboard may not have been picked bare, but the last season of the Fred Hill Era was another net minus for returning minutes, points and returnees in general. Coach Mike Rice will have an experienced (though maybe not quite All-Big East quality talent) back court, but he will to search for minutes, points and rebounds among his assembled front court. Recruiting/incoming players (see below) will have to help. Right now.

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
Jonathan Mitchell	82.1	104.0	18.3	23.4	48.1	4.7	1.02	13.5
Dane Miller	68.5	90.3	23.5	21.1	45.2	9.6	0.95	38.9
James Beatty	63.7	104.0	13.7	12.1	56.1	2.3	1.12	15.7
Mike Coburn	53.2	92.5	22.1	18.2	45.4	2.8	0.99	46.3
Austin Johnson	27.5	101.4	14.7	10.5	51.9	8.2	1.14	88.5

Some might wonder if Rutgers teams of the past had Big East-level players. That did not seem to be the problem in the last three seasons, as the staff signed and delivered all-state players in both the 2009 and 2010 season. Unfortunately a few transferred out before exhausting their eligibility. With Mike Rosario off to GatorLand, Patrick Jackson gone to Kent State and Hamady N'diaye graduated, sophomore forward Dane Miller and senior forward Jon Mitchell are the two most active returning offensive options. Transfer pg James Beatty was relatively efficient (see his 104.0 offensive rating), but nearly invisible in the offense (note his 13.7% possession and 12.1% shot rates), despite loggin about 60% of the minutes with the squad. He will probably see a jump just because Rosario is gone, but will have to be more assertive this season, if the Scarlet Knights are to see production from their backcourt spots. Look for Mike Coburn a 6-0 185 pound senior who appeared in all 32 games last season (starting in 15) to continue to log regular minutes in the rotation.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Jonathan Mitchell	82.1	14.9	9.2	13.2	0.7	1.5
Dane Miller	68.5	13.6	19.0	24.4	3.5	2.0
James Beatty	63.7	6.4	26.8	27.9	0.2	3.0
Mike Coburn	53.2	5.8	31.4	26.6	0.1	1.9
Austin Johnson	27.5	11.9	9.3	24.5	1.8	1.0

6-8 sophomore Austin Johnson was squarely in the rotation behind (at first) Greg Enchenique (since transferred to Creighton) and Hamady N'Diaye (graduated), appearing in 32 games for an average of 11.0 per game. While he showed an ability to be efficient (freshmen can have offensive ratings in the high 80s and still show promise their sophomore season), logging a 101.4, note that Johnson, like Beatty, was not the first or second (or third or fourth) option on offense when he was on the court. N'Diaye and Enchenique are gone, if the Knights are to show any low post offense Johnson will have to provide it.


Significant Additions
Coach Rice unpacked his bags, picked his staff and hit the recruiting trail. He has replenished the roster with six players (five new, one a returnee) for the 2010-11 season. Impressive to be sure, but next season's incoming group will be even better. 6-8, 230 pound Gilvydas Biruta is probably the best-regarded among the true freshmen. Biruta signed with Coach Hill, but Rice worked hard to sell Biruta on Rutgers a second time. Ranked #35 nationally among pfs, Biruta has a Big East body, a Euro-style shooter's touch from the outside, but also the ability to close and finish in the low post. Rice will definitely find something for him to do on the court. He should be a strong paint companion to Johnson. Biruta played for Dan Hurley's Grey Bees at St. Benedict's Prep in Newark, NJ. Fellow Grey Bee Mike Poole, a 6-6 195 pound sf joined Biruta in New Brunswick, and should see regular minutes on the wing for the Scarlet Knights this season. Coach Rice added an additional wing when post graduate Robert Lumpkin, a well-traveled 6-7 215 pound wing out of Washington DC who played two seasons for New Mexico State after transferring in from Kilgore College in Texas. Lumpkin will add experience to the wing positions. Coach Rice also gathered two guards, 6-3 185 true freshman Austin Carroll, a Brewster Academy graduate who will provide some perimeter shooting and another journeyman, 6-1 190 pound junior transfer Tyree Graham who left Texas Tech at the end of the fall semester of his freshman year. Graham surfaced at Brunswick Community College in North Carolina where he played the 2009-10 season for Coach Walter Shaw. Carroll is described by scouting services as a good complementary player, Carroll will probably see minutes in the back court rotation. Graham, described as competitive, will contribute points and assists next season, pending complete rehabilitation of his torn ACL. The returnee is Charlie Rigoglioso, a fourth year junior who transferred (out) to Moravian College after his freshman season (2007-08), and after one season at the small Pennsylvania college, back (in) to Rutgers where he sat (per NCAA rules) for the 2009-10 season. Rugoglioso is a walk-on who will provide depth in the backcourt and some game experience in practice.

Explode If...
Explode is a relative term. A good season for Rutgers would be to avoid the conference cellar and take a game or two they weren't supposed to win. Winning more than 12 games would be a good beginning for Coach Rice, but somewhere near or just outside the 95% confidence interval given the state of the program and squad.
1. Absolutely everything comes together for Mike Coburn and James Beatty...and Dane Miller proves to be the kind of impact player who can put the team on his back and win night in and night out. And Biruta makes Rice look like a genius for spotting talent.

Implode If...
1. Mid-major coaches tend to neglect conditioning when they move up to BCS coaching jobs. Older coaches like George Blaney never quite understood why their teams broke down (literally) in February (Blaney figured it out when he joined Coach Calhoun's staff at UConn, but he missed it completely when he headed the Seton Hall program). The younger guys have an understanding that some conditioning is required, but they usually underestimate the extent and commitment until their practices and routines begin to wear down their squad. Watch the headlines and notices through February, if members of the Scarlet rotation start showing up with nicks and dings, know the squad will be dog-tired by March. The schedule maker left a couple of "treats" at the end of Rutgers' regular season, but if the squad is spent, Rutgers may drop those otherwise winnable games.
2. This is Coach Rice's first BCS season, and no one really knows how he will handle the pressure. If the Scarlet Knights go into an extended slump (losing say, eight or ten games at a pop), the coach will struggle to keep the players focused and in the game.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
Though he coaches in a power conference, old habits are hard to break. Coach Rice has his Scarlet Knights on the road for six of Rutgers 12 out of conference games. Robert Morris may have had to live out of a suitcase in November and December, but Rutgers does not. Most of the travel is actually reasonable given the commitments, whether it is a good method to prepare for the Big East season is a debate for another day. The Knights will return a date with traditional New Jersey rival Princeton to open the season, take three games at home (one against Miami of the ACC), then travel down the Jersey Pike to the Palestra to play Saint Joseph's in the Philly Hoop Group Classic Championship round. Back to the RAC for two more games, then out to Pittsburgh for the Big East-SEC Invitational match with Auburn. Another home date with Green Knights of FDU, and back on the road to Monmouth to play in the Hawks' new arena. Back to the RAC to host St. Peter's, then off to Madison Square Garden to close out their three game contract with North Carolina. 9-3 would be a reasonable record going into their Big East schedule, though an upset one way or another could yield eight or ten wins.

The road theme continues into conference play as Rutgers opens on the road with one of their mirror opponents, Villanova. While January holds a few challenges (the opener at Villanova, Marquette and Georgetown at home), February could be make or break month. Beginning on January 29, and over the course of the next 30 days the Scarlet Knights host Pittsburgh, Villanova, Seton Hall, Louisville and West Virginia, interspersed with road trips to St. John's, Notre Dame, and Syracuse. As Hoops Heaven's Jerry Carino noted, Rutgers could easily go 0-8 in February. Granted they close out March with (winnable?) road games at DePaul and Providence, but by that time the squad may be mentally and physically, beaten to a pulp. If Rutgers is to avoid the last seed in the Big East Tournament, Coach Rice will have to find at least three, possibly four wins. The Scarlet Knights are mirrored this season with Providence, Seton Hall and Villanova. Sweeping Providence would establish the pecking order, but Rutgers will also have to beat South Florida (in the RAC on 1/20) and take another game. But among the home games, only USF which lost a lot of minutes and scoring from 2010, appears to be vulnerable, so the fourth win will have to come versus an opponent against whom Rutgers cannot expect to be favored (at least not at this point). Welcome to the Big East Coach Rice.

Departures -- Providence Thru South Florida

The Clearing Fog...Part 3 of 4
Attrition through the first eight (alphabetically speaking) teams was primarily graduation/end of eligibility. If Lance Stephenson, Greg Monroe and Samardo Samuels left early for the NBA, Stanley Robinson & Jerome Dyson, Edgar Sosa, Luke Harangody and Lazar Hayward finished out their college eligibility and helped their teams earn NCAA invitations. The teams in this, the third (alphabetically speaking) share a common thread of loss through transfer, draft and dismissal.

Providence

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Sharaud Curry	SR	G	Grad
Ray Hall	SR	C	Grad
Johnnie Lacy	FR	G	Transf
Brian McKenzie	SR	G	Grad
Russ Permenter	JR	F	Transf
Jamine Peterson	JR	F	Dismsd
James Still	FR	F	Suspd

The Friars, without the inside presence provided by the Class of 2009, struggled to a 12-19 (4-14) record last season. Coach Davis sacrificed scouting and preparation time for teaching fundamentals and installing his system. Ray Hall, Brian McKenzie and Sharaud Curry's departures were known (and no doubt planned for), but losing two transfers who each spent a single season in the program, given they were Davis' recruits, is troubling. It is one thing to clean out your predessors' recruits, quite another to see players you invested time and effort to recruit to the school and program, leave so quickly. Lacy and Still were arrested after allegedly assaulting another Providence student in early April. Lacy, who had previously announced his intent to transfer, was, along with power forward James Still, suspended pending the school's investigation. Still's status remains "suspended" for the time being. Jamine Peterson was dismissed last week after an undisclosed violation of team rules. Greedy's departure, unanticipated, was painful given his emergence last season as the team's leading scorer and rebounder. Coming on the heals of the April incident are making Davis' early years reminiscent of his predessor's first years.

Rutgers

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Patrick Jackson	SO	F	Transf
Hamady Ndiaye	SR	C	Grad
Mike Rosario	SO	G	Transf

The Fred Hill Experiment in Piscataway is over. His departure was not enough to deter all-purpose scorer Mike Rosario from transferring to Florida where he will sit next season before resuming play in 2012. Robert Morris head coach Mike Rice has stepped in and assembled a staff for next season. Rice has picked up a few recruits in the last two weeks and has, in the long run, a good opportunity to build a program at Rutgers. But in the short run, the Scarlet Knights will be hard pressed to replace N'Diaye and Rosario.

Seton Hall

Player	Class	Pos	Status
John Garcia	5 SR	F/C	Grad

The Pirate list is dominated by the names not present, rather than John Garcia, a good, but often injured center, whose eligibility ran out last season. Head Coach Bobby Gonzalez will not be back. He was fired following the Pirates' first round loss to Texas Tech in the NIT. Iona Head Coach Kevin Willard hired in early April, has a staff in place and several recruits in the fold already. After a brief flirtation with the NBA draft, prolific scorer Jeremy Hazell and mobile forward Jeff Robinson decided to give the South Orange school another season. Herb Pope, a talented if erratic, #4 continues to rehabilitate from a collapse (and subsequent hospitalization) during a pre-draft workout. He too pulled his name from the draft pool and will, pending a recovery, return to the Hall next fall.

South Florida

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Chris Howard	SR	G	Grad
Dominique Jones	JR	G	NBA-In
Ryan Kardok	SR	G	Grad
Mike Mercer	SR	G	Grad
Alex Rivas	SR	C	Grad

Jones, co-winner of the Big East Rookie of the Year in 2008 and named to the Big East All First Team last March, will be missed. Chris Howard, once he was healthy, started for four seasons, dishing 485 (or so) assists over his career. He averaged 10.3 points per game in 35.8 minutes in his senior season. Mike Mercer, a Georgia transfer played a single season for the Bulls (plus four games in 2009 before he was injured), logging 944 minutes in 33 games. Advertised as a prolific scorer, he never found the groove with the Tampa school, averaging 9.2 points per game while hitting 20% of his 3 point attempts. Alex Rivas, a JUCO with two years of eligibility, was a fixture in the rotation who provided rebounding and depth.