Guest Contributor Ray Floriani -- The Jimmy V Classic

by Ray Floriani

New York City – The annual Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden gave us two interesting games. In the opener, Missouri had a little too much of everything in defeating Villanova 81-71.

Pre-game national anthem

The pace and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Villanova	69	103
Missouri	69	117

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Villanova	51	17	36	22
Missouri	50	23	36	12

Jay Wright makes a point

Villanova coach Jay Wright watched all seven of Missouri’s previous games on tape. What he saw was a well coached, veteran team that defends and simply was a challenging task for his young Wildcats. “We were hoping to grind it out, keep it close near the end and possibly steal one,” Wright said.

Villanova trailed by double digits most of the second half but did close late to get it to a one possession game. Each time Villanova was unable to get any closer. The culprit was turnovers, untimely turnovers.

The Wildcats entered the game with a commendable 19% TO rate. Missouri, which exerts pressure in a half court setting forced Villanova into a 22% rate. That proved significant as Villanova shot well, got to the line and hit the boards hard. Transition points were crucial also as the Big Twelve representatives owned a 24-8 edge in fast break points.

Wildcats placed five players in double figures. Their points and Manley totals are as follows:

		Manley
	Pts	Eff.
Maalik Wayns	14	13
Darrun Hilliard	13	8
Dom Cheek	12	14
Mouphtaou Yarou	11	14
JayVaughn Pinkston	10	12

• Maalik Wayns canned three treys in the stretch. He added 9 assists but did commit five turnovers. Yarou is a nice player inside but needs help. Pinkston did some fine work in the lane. He is still coming around as Wright noted “he (Pinkston) is rusty.” The Villanova mentor noted Pinkston not only sat out suspended last year but worked nine hours a day and was able to get little gym time for himself. Hilliard is a freshman with a nice shooting stroke. Cheek does a good job in the open floor.

• Marcus Denmon led all scorers with 28 points. The Missouri guard was 6 of 10 from the floor. Kim English added 15 while Ricardo Ratliffe scored 17 points while grabbing 11 boards. Ratliffe proved it’s quality not quantity. He is Missouri’s only legitimate big man but the 6-8 senior forward is very effective.

• Learning experience. Wright and several of his Villanova players echoed that sentiment following the game. “we’ll learn from this,” Cheek said. “We’ll watch the tape, get back to practice and just get better.”

View of court from
upper press box

• Spent the first half recording possessions longhand. Came up with 34 per team, the same as the formula yielded off the box score. Missouri led 42-29 at the break with a noticeable 125-85 advantage in offensive efficiency.

• Missouri is 8-0. Villanova is now 5-3 with a Saturday game at Temple next on tap.

Marquette vs. Washington
The night cap of the V saw Marquette edge Washington 79-77 in a game settled on the last possession. The pace and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Marquette	74	107
Washington	71	109

One of those rare occurrences, Washington won the efficiency battle but not the won-lost ‘war’. Huskies had a 46-28% lead in offensive rebounding percentage. Interestingly, Marquette had the edge 31-7% in free throw rate. Usually teams ‘owning’ the glass get to the line more.

A reason Marquette visited the line (27 to 10 in free throw attempts) more was their ability to attack the basket. They led 10-0 in fast break points and penetrated well.

The scoreboard tells the story of game two

Marquette coach Buzz Williams is a tempo free advocate who discussed Washington’s efficiency in the post game press conference. Williams is a stickler in preaching the value and numerical meaning of a possession to his players. Little surprise that Marquette had an outstanding 14% TO rate, as opposed to the 23% of the Huskies.

Jae Crowder (18 points) hit one three all night. It was the deciding basket for Marquette as a Washington attempt pon the next possession missed at the buzzer.

The leading scorers and Manley numbers:

		Manley
	Pts	Eff.
Darius Johnson-Odom (MU)	23	17
Terrence Ross (WU)	19	24

• Marquette’s Jae Crowder had a Manley Efficiency of 17 along with his 18 points.

• Chris Otule of Marqueete went out with a knee injury after the first two minutes. The 6-11 junior averages just over 5 p[oints per game but Williams felt his loss was significant in Marquette’s defending Washington’s ball screens.

• Marquette is 8-0, Washington is now 4-3.

• Huskies are spending a few more days in New York. They will take in a movie, two plays then on Saturday face Duke back at Madison Square Garden.

Villanova was the only schol to bring cheerleaders.
Here Ray is enjoying the company

Penn Post Game -- Closing Out

They Were on Fire, and Then...
There were times in the first half when it appeared, Big 5 game/rivalry or not, Villanova was going to sweep Penn right out of the Pavilion. The 'Cats opened with a 12-4 run in the game's first five minutes on their way to a 73-65 win over their Big 5 rival. The score understated the Wildcats' domination...

	Score	Poss	PPP	eFG%	TO%
Penn	4	8	0.50	33.3	25.0
Villanova	12	8	1.50	75.0	0.0

The teams were on track for a 32 possession half and a 64 possession game...with a score of 96-32 Villanova. Numbers too good to be sustained...and the skeptics were not disappointed. Not before Villanova doubled the score on Penn, 32-16 near the 3:00 mark of the first half. The Wildcats took a solid 18 point lead, 38-20, into the intermission.

"I thought it was important (with Maalik Wayns out with two first half fouls) that we did not let him (Penn point guard Zack Rosen) get started..." Coach Wright asserted in the post game press conference, "...because once he gets going, it's really tough to stop him..." This served as the explanation for Penn's point guard Zack Rosen's second half explosion. Going into the half with six points on 2-4 (0-1, 2-3) from the floor and 2-2 from the line, Penn's preseason favorite to take Player of the Year honors in the Big 5 used the time to gather himself, and returned to the floor to record 17 more points as he engineered the Quakers' second half rush to close the gap. Though they fell short, Penn whittled a deficit that bulged to 18 early in the half down to four with 0:15 left to play. Rosen's three pointer (one of seven they managed to convert after shooting 0-7 in the first half) brought the Quakers to 65-69, but they could get no closer as the young Wildcats hit their free throws to push the margin back out to eight.

With Maalik Wayns on the bench
Zack Rosen schools Achraf Yacoubou (24) in first half action

The bloggers over at VUHoops.com focus on Villanova's nine game winning streak over Penn and how the squad converted at the line to bring home the win in their piece, "9 Straight for Cats Over Quakers". The Nova Blog noted Penn's second half rally in "Villanova Holds Off Penn's..." and how the Wildcats preserved the win. The University site posted the AP wire story and the official boxscore. The breakdown by halves

Opponent	Penn
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	33.1	33.4	66.5
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	114.8	104.8	109.8		60.4	134.8	97.8
eFG%	62.1	28.8	46.4		29.2	66.1	50.0
TORate	21.2	12.0	16.5		24.2	12.0	18.1
OR%	33.3	35.0	34.3		16.7	33.3	24.2
FTA/FGA	17.2	92.3	52.7		33.3	16.1	23.6
FTM/FGA	6.9	76.9	40.0		25.0	12.9	18.2
ARate	60.0	71.4	63.6		14.3	58.8	45.8
Blk%	10.3	3.8	7.3		4.2	6.5	5.5
Stl%	9.0	8.7	8.9		9.1	3.1	6.1
PPWS	1.21	0.94	1.06		0.72	1.35	1.06
2FG%	47.4	46.2	46.9		46.7	55.6	51.5
3FG%	60.0	7.7	30.4		0.0	53.8	31.8
FT%	40.0	83.3	75.9		75.0	80.0	76.9
%2FG	47.4	34.3	41.1		70.0	44.4	52.3
%3FG	47.4	8.6	28.8		0.0	46.7	32.3
%FT	5.3	57.1	30.1		30.0	8.9	15.4

Half Time Adjustments
The pace was dictated by Villanova and remained consistent through both halves. Penn's marked, half-over-half improvement on offense (or Villanova's defensive lapse if you wish) was graphic and led by the turnaround on their outside shooting. The Wildcats kept their points per possession rate north of one (1.048 PPP) on the strength of their offensive rebounding, dramatic drop in turnovers and the large number of times they got to the line. From Zack Rosen's post game comments, "...I don't know where our confidence was...we want to go out and play with anybody, no matter who it is...and do what we do. I think in the second half we did what we did..." Indeed, the Quakers hit 7-13 from beyond the arc, One of the minor surprises is how Penn, which racked up a staggering 27 personal fouls managed to keep their entire rotation eligible for play. Three Quakers, Rosen, forward Henry Brooks and forward/center Cameron Gunter picked up four fouls apiece while four others had three fouls apiece. Five of Penn's 18 rostered players are 6-8 and taller. They struggled to block out Mouphtao Yarou, sending the junior forward to the line for 12 free throw attempts.

Notes & Observations
1. About Villanova's defense -- "We gotta learn we have to play 40 minutes...it's hard (to maintain defensive intensity), but good teams do that...when you're young...when you get a lead...the place you rest is on defense. When you're a veteran...and you're going to rest, you do it on offense" -- Coach Jay Wright

2. Maalik Wayns picked up his second foul with nine minutes left in the first half and sat for the balance of the period. He took no shots in the first half, dished two dimes, racked up a steal and committed two turnovers before retiring to the bench. Urged at the half to shoot more, the junior's line at the finish was 11 points on 2-4 (1-2 from beyond the arc, 1-2 inside) shooting from the field and 6-6 at the line.

Maalik Wayns' three pointer in the second half
helped staunch a Quaker comeback

3. With Wayns on the bench and Rosen on the loose, the staff with limited options turned to freshmen Ty Johnson and Achraf Yacoubou to pick up Wayns' minutes and they did not disappoint. Johnson logged 15 minutes as he manned the point, recording six points while providing three assists to two turnovers. The freshman grabbed a rebound and was credited with a steal. Yacoubou was a bit less productive offensively, but he did dish two dimes while committing one turnover in an 18 minute stint.

4. Yarou racked up a double-double, 21 points and 11 rebounds in 33 minutes of action. The Quakers did not have a player, or combination of players who could contain Yarou.

Ty Johnson directs the Wildcats late in the first half

5. With the win, the latest in a streak of nine (as reported by VUHoops.com), Villanova now holds a 39-14 edge over Penn in their Big 5 series. This is the least competitive of the head-to-head series within the Big 5.

Penn's Coach Jerome Allen directs the Quakers
from the sidelines

Roster Moves
The staff used an eight man rotation against Penn, the shallowest this season, as junior forward/center Maurice Sutton dislocated his right thumb in practice this week. He is expected to miss between two and three weeks. Do not look for him before the Big East season. Freshman forward Markus Kennedy collided with JayVaughn Pinkston in practice and sustained a shoulder injury. Coach Wright hopes he will be ready Tuesday for the Missouri game in Madison Square Garden.

Santa Clara Post Game: The Learning Curve

What the Zebras Give, They Take Away
The first half ended with Villanova going to the line for three of their last five possessions. Down 28-32 when Jordan Akwenuke fouled Mouphtaou Yarou on yet another low post entry pass to send Yarou to the line. Villanova's center converted 2-2, as did Dominic Cheek on the Wildcats' next possession. The score tied at 32, the teams exchanged two empty trips apiece as the clock slipped below 0:30 Bronco guard Brandon Clark fouled Cheek on a three point attempt. The junior wing stepped to the line and sank all three attempts. Back the other way with three ticks left freshman Darrun Hilliard fouled Santa Clara point guard Evan Roquemore in the midst of a desparation three. To the line with 0:0.2 on the clock, Roquemore managed to get the Broncos two more points before the half, and Villanova retired to the locker room with a one point, 35-34 lead.

Not able to pull away in the second half, the Wildcats nevertheless had the ball and a five point lead, 64-59, with 0:57 left. Villanova was not only unable to convert their next two possessions, but they compounded the problem by putting Roquemore on the line for Santa Clara's corresponding two possessions. The second trip to the foul line was especially frustrating because Villanova's defense had denied the Broncos a clean look for a tieing three point attempt. With 10 seconds left on the clock Santa Clara Coach Kerry Keating had called time when the Bronco's first three point play had broken down. Thinking they had a foul to give, the Villanova staff instructed Hilliard to foul with seven ticks left. The scoreboard may have said five fouls (even the refereeing crew told the Villanova bench the wrong foul count), but the scorer's book said six, and Hilliard's foul-to-give put Roquemore back on the line where he dropped both and cut the lead to one, 65-64. Hilliard could not find an open player at mid-court, and forgetting he could run the baseline, dumped the inbound to JayVaughn Pinkston who was the outlet. The forward gathered the ball, but was fouled instantly by guard Raymond Cowells, thus putting the freshman, who had converted three of four free throw attempts to that point, on the line with the game hanging. Pinkston missed the front end, and stepped between Yannik Atanga and Roquemore to intercept the pass. He made contact with Roquemore with 0:04 on the clock and put Roquemore back on the line shooting one-and-one. Roquemore converted twice to claim the win for Santa Clara.

The Villanova blogosphere and messageboards have dissolved into a tasty ragou of factions and differing opinions. The bloggers over at VUHoops.com offered a critical recap that provided readers with an opportunity to comment. Those readers generated 206 comments, which spanned the spectrum from absolute disgust to wait and see. The blogger wisely abstained from grading the performances, though the title, "Sloppy Cats Bucked by Broncos" implies an opinion of sorts. The Nova Blog chose to accentuate the positive in their recap, "Things Aren't As Bad...". The University site posted the AP wire story and the official boxscore. The breakdown by halves

Opponent	Santa Clara
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	32.5	31.3	63.8
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	107.7	92.6	100.3		104.6	99.0	101.8
eFG%	45.8	48.1	47.1		60.0	50.0	55.0
TORate	18.5	25.5	21.9		18.5	16.0	17.2
OR%	28.6	35.0	32.4		7.7	13.3	10.7
FTA/FGA	58.3	29.6	43.1		20.0	24.0	22.0
FTM/FGA	54.2	11.1	31.4		16.0	24.0	20.0
ARate	60.0	36.4	47.6		58.3	50.0	54.5
Blk%	0.0	0.0	0.0		4.0	4.0	4.0
Stl%	3.1	9.4	6.2		0.0	9.7	4.7
PPWS	1.14	0.94	1.04		1.24	1.11	1.18
2FG%	47.1	38.9	42.9		42.9	55.6	47.8
3FG%	28.6	44.4	37.5		54.5	31.3	40.7
FT%	92.9	37.5	72.7		80.0	100.0	90.9
%2FG	45.7	48.3	46.9		35.3	32.3	33.8
%3FG	17.1	41.4	28.1		52.9	48.4	50.8
%FT	37.1	10.3	25.0		11.8	19.4	15.4

Half Time Adjustments
The pace was slow for Villanova, but consistent with Santa Clara's offensive style of play. The Broncos are a perimeter oriented team (POT), that uses motion to find open three point scoring opportunities, which may take time to develop. Stymied by the Bronco's zone defense early in the first half, Villanova found the adjustment after 5-7 minutes, and looked for Yarou to flash to the key for a pass. When he caught it, the center could then reverse the ball or turn and shoot. Shooting was extremely effective as Yarou converted 4-7, most from that spot, and went to the free throw line several times as well. Santa Clara bigs collected seven personals in the first half. Though that play was available in the second half, Yarou's hit only 3-6, with Markus Kennedy only able to convert 1-6 in a similar situation.

Notes & Observations
1. A 28.6% conversion rate for three point attempts in the first half, and a 38.9% two point conversion rate in the second half worked to keep Villanova's eFG% below 50% for both halves. Recognizing what the defense will give earlier might have made a difference going into the half-time. Taking advantage of a loose zone early in the second half helped to build a modest lead through the first few minutes. Santa Clara recognized Wayns' tendency to drive the lane with late game possessions and defensed the play well, despite Villanova setting the second screen. Who was available to take a pass at that point?

2. Maalik Wayns took over 30% of the possessions and 24% of the available shots when he was on the floor. Those numbers allow the other members on the floor a larger role than setting screens and grabbing rebounds, but dishing only three dimes to four turnovers continues to eat into his efficiency. Wayns' eFG% was a modest 50%, accounting for a 10 point contribution to the offense.

3. Yarou emerged as a legitimate primary scoring option in this game. The Santa Clara front court contingent was outclassed when matched with Yarou. The junior went 7-13 from the field and 5-7 from the line to post an eFG% of 53.8% with a 1.16 PPWS, the best on the team among those who logged 50% or more playing time and 20% or more Shot%. Yarou also corralled 10.7% of the available offensive rebounds, a strong number for low post players.

4. A possible hint of minute distribution and player rotation to come, the staff used 10 players again, but only seven saw more than 10 minutes of PT. Bell and Yarou drew >30 minutes, while Wayns, limited by foul trouble in the first half, drew 29.

5. The turnover rate among the freshmen (and Wayns...) was high, with Ty Johnson losing 49% of his possessions, followed by Pinkston (37%), (Wayns...29%) and Hilliard (26%). Kennedy lost only 13% of his possessions, a strong number considering he plays in the low post. Given the inbounds play that put Pinkston on the line with 6 seconds to go, the staff intends to use the freshmen extensively (do they have a choice?) and in critical, end game situations.

Perimeter Oriented Teams...
Santa Clara offers a typical profile for a team that looks to generate it's offense from the outside in. The Broncos show some obvious clues by their point distribution (50.8% from three point conversions), but the more subtle clues are present even if they did not convert as efficiently as they did. Note the offensive rebounding rate (10.7%) and free throw rate (FTA/FGA -- free throws to field goal attemtps -- 22.0%), both of which hint strongly that the Broncos avoid contact while scoring their points. The pace, possessions per game, also hint at a POT, the Broncos rely on a variety of screens and ball reversals to set up their scorers.

Saint Louis Post Game: Deja Vu

Take Me Home, Country Roads
The first seven possessions went like clockwork, 13 points on 5-8 shooting with three made three point field goals as Villanova jumped out to a 13-5 lead on St. Louis. Then the Billinkens calmed down and began to work their offensive sets. The game tightened up as the Bills took a 12-10 run over the next six minutes to trim two points off of the Wildcats' lead. Then Mouphtao Yarou headed to the bench with his sesond foul of the half, and the wheels fell off of the wagon. Coach Rick Majerus' squad launched a 22-10 onslaught over the last 9:30 of the first period that wiped out Villanova's lead and sent Saint Louis into the lock room with a four point, 38-34 lead. And firm control on the game.

Watching Villanova's defense try to trap and press St. Louis reminded me of a badly played game of keep-away. By the mid point of the second half the relative youth (and indiscipline?) of the Wildcats showed with a series of flairing elbows and flagrant foul calls. Walking a fine line between tough, Big East defense and chippy basketball, the 'Cats found themselves under an unwelcomed refereeing microscope. The irony was that Villanova's offense was not terrible, as in lose-the-game terrible. With a 52.9% eFG% and turnover rate of 18.5%, how could Villanova be losing, and by double digits (the game was in the second half...) at that? The game reminded me of the West Virginia teams under John Beilein. Most of the time the Wildcats got much of what they wanted offensively, but would still lose to a Mountaineer team that understood what plays to run to exploit the Wildcats' help defense. As Blue and White defenders collapsed on the Billiken with the ball driving the lane (or at the elbow), the pass would go into the area just vacated by the "help" defender...to a Billiken flashing to the basket or set for a quick three. The Bills converted 14 of 27 three point attempts, far, far to high for any opponent to overcome. It was a game where high rebounding numbers and low turnover rates were marginalized by the extraordinary efficiency offered by the other team.

The bloggers over at VUHoops.com offered a brief recap with player grades while the Nova Blog posted a recap followed by a detailed player critique later. The University site posted their AP wire story. The official boxscore is also posted. The breakdown by halves

Opponent	St. Louis
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	32.4	31.9	64.3
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	105.1	106.5	105.8		117.5	131.6	124.5
eFG%	56.3	50.0	52.9		68.5	60.4	64.7
TORate	15.5	21.9	18.7		12.4	9.4	10.9
OR%	6.7	37.5	22.6		0.0	31.3	17.2
FTA/FGA	41.7	25.0	32.7		7.4	83.3	43.1
FTM/FGA	29.2	21.4	25.0		3.7	54.2	27.5
ARate	75.0	30.8	52.0		64.3	41.7	53.8
Blk%	4.2	7.1	5.8		0.0	4.2	2.0
Stl%	6.1	9.3	7.7		0.0	6.3	3.2
PPWS	1.18	1.09	1.13		1.36	1.25	1.30
2FG%	56.3	52.4	54.1		45.5	53.8	50.0
3FG%	37.5	28.6	33.3		56.3	45.5	51.9
FT%	70.0	85.7	76.5		50.0	65.0	63.6
%2FG	52.9	64.7	58.8		26.3	33.3	30.0
%3FG	26.5	17.6	22.1		71.1	35.7	52.5
%FT	20.6	17.6	19.1		2.6	31.0	17.5

Half Time Adjustments
An anemic 6.7% offensive rebounding rate in the first half was "corrected" to 37.5% in the second half. Realistically that was probably the only way to boost an already good 56.3% eFG%. Ironically the rebounding improved -- but the conversion rate still dropped. A 52.9% eFG% coupled with a 1.13 PPWS should be good enough offensively to chalk up the win. The Billikens however, sliced up Villanova's defense to the tune of a 64.7% eFG% and 1.30 PPWS, numbers that should draw a comment from Ken Pomeroy and others who track those numbers. Villanova's "help defense" was it's own worst enemy in this game. And the frustration manifested by a number of second half chippy fouls (and Darrun Hilliard's quick exit after his fourth foul) suggests the players knew their best efforts were useless to shut down the offense they faced.

Notes & Observations
1. The assist rate drop from first to second half (75.0 to 30.8) is clear evidence that the offense went away from dribble drive to one-on-one breakdown as a response to being down double digits for much of the perod.

2. Maalik Wayns took a whopping 44% of the shots when he was in the game. Given he played 87.5% of the available minutes at one of the guard positions, his high shooting percentage was not a distortion of the minutes. His 49% possession rate, however, tends to reduce Villanova's offense to one dimension. Stop Wayns and the Wildcats stall.

3. James Bell emerged as a legitimate second option on offense. The sophomore wing took 26.5% of the shots when he was on the floor, with a comparable percentage of the possessions. Now one (or both?) of Mouphtaou Yarou or Dominic Cheek must establish themselves as legitimate second/third scoring options. For Yarou that means staying in the game (and game flow). For Cheek it means shooting/scoring more consistently.

4. The staff used a 10 man rotation again. Minute distribution ranged from five (Ty Johnson to 35 (Wayns) minutes, with eight drawing 10 or more minutes.

5. St. Louis was paced by sophomore guard Jordair Jett who came off of the bench to score 19 points on 7-8 (2-2, 5-6) shooting from the floor and 3-6 from the line. Kwamain Mitchell (32.1% Shot%), Cody Ellis (23.5% Shot%) and Rob Loe (43.6% Shot%) were, along with Jett, the offensive mainstays for St. Louis. Mitchell did not convert efficiently however, and Loe played only nine minutes (taking five field goal attempts in that time span).

Up Next... -- Santa Clara will face Villanova in the 3rd place game on Sunday.

UC Riverside Post Game: Opening Strong

The Burn Offense is Alive and Well...in Riverside, California
While it might seem far fetched that a basketball team can create a 25 point winning margin on just 58 (plus or minus 1?) possessions, that is precisely what Villanova did in their first round game with University of California Riverside of the 76 Classic in Anaheim, California. Looking at last season's kenpom ratings this would make some sense, the Wildcats obtained the highest rating among the eight schools invited to participate; UC Riverside had the lowest. Two things happened on the way to the first round...first, the balance of the field was not seeded in the anticipated 1-8, 2-7, 3-6, 4-5 fashion that one might have expected, and second, the kenpom ratings changed to reflect games played this season, and Villanova fell to #3 according to the kenpom system. The field was seeded to insure an "East-West" game for the finals. The only team in Villanova's bracket not from the Mississippi or east was UC Riverside, the team most likely to lose their first round game. All of the teams in the other bracket come from west of the Mississippi River Valley, Oklahoma, clearly a "southwestern" team is the most easterly team in the bracket. Villanova dismantled UC Riverside 71-46 in the most decisive game so far in the Wildcats' the 2011-12 schedule. The final will feature an East-West match.

The Highlanders held onto the lead for over 10 minutes in the first half. The shot clock, not a hot shooting hand or control of the offensive boards was the key. The Highlanders typically took 20-30 seconds off the clock before they took a field goal attempt. The Wildcats would more often than not gather the defensive rebound and respond with a shot (often a miss) anywhere from four to twenty seconds into the shot clock. That tactic, to "shorten" the game by burning the clock, is an often employed strategy by an overmatched underdog. It makes sense too; by limiting the scoring opportunities the underdog can, in theory, keep the score close, maximizing the impact of high reward offensive tactics like the three point attempt. By the 11 minute mark however, the Highlanders, overmatched on height, had no more fouls to give, and the Wildcats' offense began to grind them down. Freshman off guard Darrun Hilliard hit a three at the 9:30 mark putting Villanova up by one 15-14, and the Wildcats were not headed again. Once on top, the 'Cats took a 17-2 run to close out the half...and the game.

The bloggers over at Nova Blog and VUHoops.com attributed UC Riverside's 11 minute lead to hot shooting (the Highlanders) and sloppy play (the Wildcats), both of which were true. Sort of. UC Riverside did score in their first three possessions (which consumed over two minutes on the game clock), but those seven points were half of their entire point production through the first 11 minutes of the half. It took the Highlanders another nine minutes to scored their next seven points. And seven more minutes to score their next two (and last of the half) points. Villanova did go an appalling 2-9 from the field while they were down on the Highlanders, but stayed within contact by shooting 6-6 from the line. While the Highlanders committed seven fouls (putting the 'Cats in the bonus) with a single turnover over that time period, the 'Cats committed four fouls and one turnover by contrast. The University site posted their AP wire story. The official boxscore is also posted. The breakdown by halves

Opponent	UC Riverside
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	30.0	28.3	58.3
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	106.7	137.6	121.7		53.4	105.8	78.9
eFG%	41.7	53.0	48.2		25.0	45.8	35.0
TORate	13.3	14.1	13.7		23.3	24.7	24.0
OR%	27.8	64.7	45.7		28.6	42.9	34.3
FTA/FGA	58.3	12.1	31.6		26.9	33.3	30.0
FTM/FGA	50.0	12.1	28.1		11.5	33.3	22.0
ARate	62.5	31.3	41.7		33.3	10.0	18.8
Blk%	0.0	6.1	3.5		3.8	4.2	4.0
Stl%	0.0	7.2	3.5		9.9	6.9	8.5
PPWS	1.04	1.12	1.08		0.55	1.08	0.81
2FG%	30.8	48.1	42.5		31.3	47.1	39.4
3FG%	36.4	50.0	41.2		10.0	28.6	17.6
FT%	85.7	100.0	88.9		42.9	100.0	73.3
%2FG	25.0	66.7	47.9		62.5	53.3	56.5
%3FG	37.5	23.1	29.6		18.8	20.0	19.6
%FT	37.5	10.3	22.5		18.8	26.7	23.9

Half Time Adjustments
Villanova broke on top in the first because, though their eFG% was poor enough to be down at the half, was better than the Highlanders...shot defense. The Wildcats took care of the ball (see turnover rate) while forcing turnovers by UC Riverside. Second half stats show improved (reflected in the score margins, which ranged as high as 30 late in the second period, ultimately settling in at 25) shot efficiency (eFG%) coupled with much better offensive rebounding rates, even as the Wildcats continued to care for the ball (see turnover rate). The half-over-half steep drop in free throw rate (FTA/FGA) is most likely a reflection of the Highlanders' foul difficulties -- their bigs had to be careful, which may also account for the dramatic increase in Villanova's offensive rebounding rate (24.8 to 64.7).

Notes & Observations
1. The staff appears to have fixed on the starting five, using Maalik Wayns at the point with Darrun Hilliard and Dom Cheek rounding out the back court/wing sports, with James Bell playing the "#4" and Mouphtaou Yarou at the #5. The staff called the numbers for a total of 10 players who were alloted playing time ranging from eight minutes (freshman Ty Johnson again) up to 35 minutes (Wayns). Freshman Achraf Yacoubou drew a modestly surprising 20 minutes, due most likely to Bell's foul problems. Freshman JayVaughn Pinkston played for 17 minutes while fellow freshman Markus Kennedy drew 12 minutes.
2. Yarou and Wayns asserted themselves as hoped for. Yarou scored a double-double on 11 points and 10 rebounds. Wayns chipped in a game-high 23 points while the 'Cats had two others, Hilliard (12 points) and Bell (12 points) who also notched double digit minutes. Bell's 12 points were scored in 13 minutes of play, all that could be safely allocated given his foul problems.

3. A crucial and welcomed stat is the point distribution, highlighted in green above. Though Villanova shooters were hitting their three point attempts at a 50% clip, but the guards did not drop out to the arc and start jacking threes. Note points from two point attempts in the second half was 66%, and overall threes accounted for under 30% of the point production. Given the point margin was +20 through much of the second half the back court showed discipline and good judgement by not stepping back taking threes. They also insured that a cold streak would not let the Highlanders back into the game.

4. Wayns took about 40% of the possessions and 38% of the shots when he was on the court. This time he combined high usage with high efficiency, for the kind of production that will earn him some national attention. I have just about accepted the idea that he will be a volumn shooter, not a role I would like to see. Against programs like UC Riverside however, it works. He draws (defensive) attention, which should benefit second and third scoring options like Hilliard, Yarou and Yacoubou, both of whom took between 11% and 21% of the shots. Bell took a surprising 31% of the shots, but consider how little time he actually logged.

5. UC Riverside was paced by Daymond Cowlah, who scored 10 points on 4-7 (2-4 from threes, 2-3 from inside the arc). Team-high rebounding was shared by T.J. Burke and Elliot Berry.

6. Coach Jay Wright, as noted by VUSports.com, logged win #350 for his career.

Delaware Post Game -- The Juniors

On the Other Hand
In the 78-59 blowout Villanova handed Delaware in late December of last season, a few Blue Hens got a bit chippy at the end. Playing before a mellow crowd in the undersold Wells Fargo Center did not provide the electricity usually associated with Philadelphia's downtown pro venue. Maybe it was the disappointment or maybe it was the fact that the game was uncompetitive virtually from the tip-off, but the Blue Hens, staff and players were unhappy with the experience and made no effort to hide it. This season the game was completely different. The game was scheduled earlier (by a month), the venue a more intimate Pavilion on Villanova's campus and the contest much, much closer. The Hens had a year to focus their frustration and the results showed last night as Delaware still lost by double digits, 79-69, but went down fighting (figuratively speaking), holding the margin to the 8-10 range from the 35:00 mark in. Blue Hen guard Devon Saddler recorded the game-high 27 points on 10-26 (3-10, 7-16) shooting from the court and 2-4 from the line. 'Cat guards Maalik Wayns and Dominic Cheek notched 21 points apiece, team-high for the host.

The Wildcats took the first 5:52 to jump out to a 14-5 lead, in a tease that hinted at another 20+ win. The flow ground to a halt for the next 5:52 however, as the Blue Hens outscored Nova by a 4-1 margin on an ugly sequence that featured four points on eight possessions by Delaware and one point on seven possessions by Villanova. Though the 'Cats took a 14 point edge into the half-time break, the margin was based on a Villanova 8-3 run in the last 2:21 of the half. The second half featured a 16-6 Delaware run in the first 4:34, and while the two teams did not fall into another high-possession low-scoring funk, the Wildcats were not able to sustain a scoring run that could create the separation necessary to demoralize the Blue Hens. The teams hovered at the ten point margin for much of the last three minutes of play.

My last paragraphs echo the disappointment registered by the bloggers over at VUHoops.com and The Nova Blog, both of whom felt the winning margin should have been greater than 10 points. We should probably shut up; no point in giving Coach Monte Ross more bulletin board material. The University site posted their AP wire story. The official boxscore indicates that Throw Your V's Up blog can tally this one in the 0>10 "Home" column. The blog features an excellent breakdown on how the Wildcats performed in close games last season. The breakdown by halves

Opponent	Delaware
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	33.3	32.6	65.9
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	114.2	125.7	119.9		72.1	138.0	104.7
eFG%	51.9	58.6	55.4		37.9	58.3	49.2
TORate	15.0	15.3	15.2		24.0	15.3	19.7
OR%	27.8	42.9	34.4		30.0	50.0	39.5
FTA/FGA	51.9	27.6	39.3		13.8	8.3	10.8
FTM/FGA	37.0	24.1	30.4		6.9	8.3	7.7
ARate	75.0	66.7	70.4		70.0	64.7	66.7
Blk%	3.7	3.4	3.6		6.9	5.6	6.2
Stl%	3.0	12.6	7.6		18.2	6.0	12.1
PPWS	1.13	1.25	1.19		0.78	1.20	1.01
2FG%	53.3	57.9	55.9		50.0	52.9	51.5
3FG%	33.3	40.0	36.4		15.4	42.1	31.3
FT%	71.4	87.5	77.3		50.0	100.0	71.4
%2FG	42.1	53.7	48.1		66.7	40.0	49.3
%3FG	31.6	29.3	30.4		25.0	53.3	43.5
%FT	26.3	17.1	21.5		8.3	6.7	7.2

Half Time Adjustments
Villanova's first half can be traced to efficient shot (eFG% ) conversion, and tight defense. Note Delaware's 37.9% eFG% (nerves?) combined with low offensive rebounding (30%) and high turnover rate (24%). The Hens had few shot opportunities, and when they shot they neither converted nor did they get many second chances. If Villanova was not as dominant as they were versus Monmouth, they nevertheless converted well, rebounded their misses and did not turn the ball over much. Notice the second half collapse of Villanova's defense. The Blue Hens managed to score 45 points on just over 32 possessions. Last season that would have killed Villanova.

Notes & Observations
1. The staff started four guards for the fourth straight game (last exhibition plus three regular season games), using Wayns at the point with Bell playing the "#4" and Darrun Hilliard along with Dominic Cheek rotating between the #2 and the #3. Hilliard logged 27 minutes last night, down slightly from the tighter La Salle game. The staff shows a lot of confidence in the freshman, keeping him in the game when the score is closer. A total of 10 players were used, alloted playing time ranging from three minutes (freshman Ty Johnson) up to 36 minutes (Wayns). The three junior starters logged an average of 33.3 minutes apiece, as opposed to the other seven players who average 14.3 minutes apiece...remember Hilliard got 24 of those minutes, while freshman JayVaughn Pinkston played for another 19 minutes.
2. Among the junior starters, Yarou stepped into the "offensive engine" role, taking over 30% of the possessions and 33% of the shots in a very un "Guard U"-like performance. Wayns stepped back and worked on setting up the team a bit more (28% assist rate) while taking about 28% of the possessions and 24% of the shots. His efficiency exploded. Cheek (24% Shot%, 23% Poss%) logged numbers consistent with prior games, again suggesting his role will grow this season and he responded with another efficient scoring night (62.5% eFG%). Yarou was not as efficient, most likely due to turnovers (he had two). Pinkston, the other front court option, had a night of growing pains, going 0-6 from the field with two turnovers.
3. Rebounding was an issue for the first time this season as the 'Cats were outrebounded, 34-36, by the Hens. Note the table above, the big letdown was in the second half, where Villanova allowed Delaware to grab 50% of the Blue Hen misses, about 17% more than the Division I average, and 20% more than usual for Villanova.

La Salle Post Game -- Big 5 Parity?

Last Laughs...
That collective snicker heard out of the Nova Nation Monday night when the sports ticker ran the Temple/Penn score (Temple 73-67 in overtime), the favor was returned Tuesday when Villanova needed an extra five minutes to beat La Salle, 76-69, as the two Philadelphia schools opened the Big 5 portion of their seasons. It was not a pretty game, marred by a combined 33 turnovers (20 committed by the Wildcats), 41 fouls (30 committed by La Salle) and sub 40% shooting from the field (Villanova 35.2%, La Salle 37.1%). Down by 10 at the 1:17 mark of the first half, the Wildcats used the next 2:45 for an 11-0 run to take their second lead of the game, 32-31 at the 18:31 mark of the second half. The last 18 minutes of regulation saw seven lead changes and six ties, as the longtime rivals built leads of up to five points as the half wound down. La Salle's senior wing Earl Pettis tied the game at 50 with a three point conversion at the 6:30 mark of regulation, and the Explorers took the lead on their next possession (a layup by sophomore guard Sam Mills) and used the next 5:08 to build a five point lead (61-56). With 1:22 left the Wildcats mounted one last offensive rush. Maalik Wayns hit a long jumper to bring the 'Cats to within two (59-61), then Wayns fouled to force an inbound play. Freshman guard Darrun Hilliard picked off Earl Pettis' inbound pass to Taylor Dunn, bolted to the bucket for the layup that knotted the game, for the eighth time, at 61, with less than a minute in the half. Hilliard stepped up to block a Taylor Dunn jumper, the deflection going to junior wing Dom Cheek, who passed to Wayns for a runout. Wayns missed the layup and the teams went into overtime. The Wildcats controlled the game virtually from the overtime tip-off, converting 2-2 at the free throw line (sophomore James Bell) on their second overtime possession. The Explorers tied once (at 63) at the 2:45 mark of overtime, but could do no more as the 'Cats closed out the period with a 13-6 run.

The University site posted their AP wire story. The official website also posted the boxscore, thank heaven. The breakdown by halves

Opponent	La Salle
	1st	2nd	OT	Game
Pace	36.7	31.3	10.4	78.4
	Offense					Defense
	1st	2nd	OT	Game		1st	2nd	OT	Game
Rating	70.8	112.0	144.6	97.0		81.7	96.0	86.7	88.1
eFG%	30.4	44.2	50.0	38.9		48.1	40.6	37.5	42.9
TORate	38.1	12.8	19.3	25.5		21.8	12.8	9.6	16.6
OR%	42.1	33.3	33.3	37.5		0.0	33.3	37.5	22.2
FTA/FGA	69.6	57.7	200.0	75.9		23.1	15.6	0.0	15.7
FTM/FGA	52.2	46.2	200.0	63.0		19.2	12.5	0.0	12.9
ARate	57.1	30.0	50.0	42.1		70.0	50.0	0.0	50.0
Blk%	0.0	11.5	11.5	5.6		7.7	6.3	6.3	7.1
Stl%	10.9	12.9	12.9	12.7		10.9	3.2	3.2	6.4
PPWS	0.85	1.06	1.54	1.03		1.04	0.87	0.75	0.92
2FG%	63.6	36.8	100.0	48.4		31.3	47.6	33.3	39.1
3FG%	0.0	42.9	25.0	17.4		50.0	18.2	33.3	33.3
FT%	75.0	80.0	100.0	82.9		83.3	80.0	0.0	81.8
%2FG	53.8	40.0	13.3	39.5		33.3	66.7	66.7	52.2
%3FG	0.0	25.7	20.0	15.8		50.0	20.0	33.3	34.8
%FT	46.2	34.3	66.7	44.7		16.7	13.3	0.0	13.0

It's Beginning to Look A Lot Like Christmas
If I highlighted the good numbers with green and the disappointing numbers with red, the table above would take on the look of a Christmas card (actually a Valentine's Day card, not a whole lot of good news here), but instead I will use a Christmas-neutral yellow to highlight the four factors numbers that were critical to shaping the outcome. Converting shots at a 38.9% clip is a recipe for a loss, especially when your opponent is converting at a rate 4% greater (42.9%). Not until the overtime period, when Dr. Giannini's squad was most likely exhausted (three Explorers logged more than 40 minutes to Villanova's one), did Villanova convert at a 50% efficiency. Combined with a 25.5% turnover rate makes the win almost impossible. How did the 'Cats counter? They dominated the boards. Dominated might be an understatement, as the Villanova outrebounded La Salle by 15 (50-35). Offensively, the 'Cats grabbed 37.5% of their own misses, providing them with 15 more scoring opportunities. Defensively, Villanova grabbed nearly 78% of La Salle misses -- including a very impressive 100% defensive rebounding rate in the first half -- denying the Explorers the chance to "net out" Villanova's scoring advantage. Though La Salle took 16 more field goal attempts, Villanova held a 41-11 free throw attempt edge on 30 La Salle personal fouls. Freshman center Steve Zack fouled out in 18 minutes, while freshman starting forward, Jerrell Wright logged four fouls in 12 minutes of play. In all one Explorer (Zack) was DQ'd, while four others (Wright, plus Mills, Dunn and senior forward Devon White) played with four fouls. The 'Cats held a 34-9 margin in converted free throws, enough for the win.

Notes & Observations
1. The staff continues to show a four guard staring lineup, using Wayns at the point with Bell playing the "#4" and Hilliard and Cheek rotating between the #2 and the #3. Versus Monmouth Hilliard received a fairly short run, but versus La Salle the freshman logged an upper classman-like 34 minutes. Both the rotation was deeper (11 players to 10 used by Dr. Giannini) and the time more evenly distributed (one player with >40 minutes vs. three for La Salle) than the Explorers, but the regular rotation is clearly not carved in stone. Junior foward Maurice Sutton, an afterthought for the European Tour and Monmouth game (he logged five minutes in that 36 point romp last Friday) caught four very important overtime minutes versus La Salle. The junior was credited with a blocked shot and two defensive rebounds during his run. JayVaughn Pinkston picked up another 20 of playing time, while fellow freshman forward/center Markus Kennedy had only 10 minutes of time. Observers have suggested Kennedy is the "more ready" of the two, but the staff apparently likes what they see in Pinkston a bit more.
2. Among the starters, Wayns (36% Shot%, 36.3% Poss%) and Bell (26.3% Shot%, 27.7% Poss%) were the offensive engines. Neither was efficient, converting their shots at 37.5% and 41.7% respectively. Both however, redeemed themselves at the free throw line, using their converted free throws (Wayns was 10-10; Bell 5-6) to push their PPWS (points per weighted shot) above the 1.00 threshold. For Wayns, despite his horrific 5-16 shooting (though he did hit a crucial three point attempt at the 1:10 mark of regulation to cut La Salle's lead to a managable two), managed a number of heady plays at crunch time. He fouled with under 45 seconds left after La Salle broke Villanova's press. With fouls to give it forced an inbound play, thus setting the table for Hilliard's end-game heroics.
3. Mouphtaou Yarou and Cheek among the starters, along with Pinkston from the rotation, form a second/third option for scoring. Among the first/second/third options, only Yarou with a 57.1% eFG%, was efficient. Given Yarou's 19.4% Shot Rate, the guards will have to find him more often if the big is to have an impact on offense. Hilliard, with a 66.7% eFG%, was nearly invisible (statistically) on offense. His crucial conversion, a tying layup with under a minute to play, was the most obvious of several timely conversions.
4. Offensive boards came complements of Yarou (11.3%) and Kennedy (22.5% on limited minutes). Bell (8.9%) and Cheek (8.2%) are following that tradition of rebounding Villanova guards. On the defensive boards, again Yarou (31.2%) led the way with Wayns(!) following (18.7%), Pinkston (15.0%), Cheek (12.2%), Kennedy (10.0%) and Sutton (28.6% -- very limited minutes). The Explorers lack a dominant rebounder; Zack and Williams are not experienced enough yet.

Big 5 Notes
1. Dr. Giannini has never beaten Villanova, going 0-8 in his tenure at La Salle. Coach Wright is 10-1 versus La Salle in his 11 year run at Villanova.
2. As part of the Big 5 series dating back to 1955, Villanova holds a 30-23 edge over La Salle.

Monmouth Post Game -- King Rice's Debut

Opening Night
Monmouth cashiered 13 year head coach Dave Calloway last spring, the culmination of a frustrating five year run of sub 0.500 seasons. Calloway's successor, King Rice, racked up 19 years through four stops before picking up the reins at Monmouth. His first order of business was fulfilling a return date obligation to Villanova, the result of a (nearly...) Christmas Eve game at Monmouth last season. The Wildcats' downed the Hawks in 36 point, 106-70 rout highlighted by a career-high 27 points by junior wing Dominic Cheek, nearly matched by a career-high 24 points by junior center Mouphtaou Yarou. The 106 point outburst was the second most scored in opening night game, a distinction I am sure Rice will remember.

The University site posted their AP wire story. The official website also posted the boxscore, thank heaven. The breakdown by halves

Opponent	Monmouth
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	37.8	41.9	79.6
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	145.7	121.8	133.1		90.1	85.9	87.9
eFG%	61.8	65.6	63.6		50.0	34.8	42.2
TORate	18.5	21.5	20.1		21.2	19.1	20.1
OR%	58.8	31.3	45.5		21.1	26.9	24.4
FTA/FGA	41.2	37.5	39.4		19.4	51.5	35.9
FTM/FGA	38.2	28.1	33.3		9.7	39.4	25.0
ARate	64.7	57.9	61.1		57.1	77.8	65.2
Blk%	14.7	9.4	12.1		6.5	6.1	6.3
Stl%	13.3	9.6	11.3		7.9	14.3	11.3
PPWS	1.35	1.35	1.35		1.00	0.88	0.93
2FG%	52.9	62.5	58.5		73.3	22.2	45.5
3FG%	47.1	50.0	48.0		18.8	33.3	25.8
FT%	92.9	75.0	84.6		50.0	76.5	69.6
%2FG	32.7	58.8	45.3		64.7	22.2	42.9
%3FG	43.6	23.5	34.0		26.5	41.7	34.3
%FT	23.6	17.6	20.8		8.8	36.1	22.9

This one is very simple -- just a sea of green (positive stats) on both sides of the ball. If there is room for improvement, look to the Hawks' first half shot efficiency (eFG%), a strong 50% based entirely on an 11-14 two point conversion rate, and largely offset by a brutal 3-15 three point conversion rate. A 51.5% free throw rate (FTA/FGA) in the second half may well be credited to a lead that fluctuated between 20 and 40 points through virtually the entire second half. Especially strong on the night, offensive shot efficiency and rebounding -- at both ends of the court.

Half Time Adjustments
If the Wildcats' scorching offense, responsible for nearly 1.5 points per possession, cooled off a bit in the second half, the 'Cats were able to turn up their defense, holding the Hawks to an even tighter 0.86 points per possession defense, down over 0.024 points per possession over their first half. Those looking for a clue on the relative importance of shot efficiency (eFG%) versus the other three factors -- offensive rebounding rate (OR%), turnover rate (TO%) and defensive fouling (FTA/FGA) can come to only one conclusion -- that the eFG% is the strongest determinant of the defensive efficiency rating. Though Monmouth registered improved numbers in turnovers, rebounding and getting to the line, their conversion efficiency declined due entirely to the dramatic decline in shot efficiency (eFG%).


Notes & Observations
1. A worrisome 40% possession rate by point guard Maalik Wayns was much lower versus the Hawks (25.2%), accompanied by an improved offensive efficiency rating for the junior point guard (109.7).
2. The staff emptied the bench, running all 12 rostered players through the game at one point or another. The juniors and James Bell logged at least 60% of the allocated time, with JayVaughn Pinkston getting a 21 minutes run (53.5% of the available minutes on the wing).
3. Markus Kennedy's promising outing lasted a too brief 16 minutes, due no small part to the four fouls he picked up...that's about one every four minutes.

Rising Juniors -- Nine to Watch

What We Are Looking For
Lance Stephenson is gone, he did not make it to his sophomore year. You will not find Peyton Siva on this list (Big East Honorable Mention last season) -- too high profile. Not Jamal Coombs-McDaniels nor Mookie Jones, nor Dalton Pepper, nor Isaiah Armwood either, as all have transferred to other schools. The All-Conference Teams have tended to be senior-heavy for the past few seasons (which may be a backhanded way to explain the transfers), so quite a few rising juniors could be on this list...if they had stayed. The nine listed below should all see their roles expand as the upper classmen have moved on. Using Pomeroy's classification system as a guide, I am scouting the "Role" or "Significant Contributor" player, someone who took about 16%-23% of their team's possessions last season, but could grow into a "Major Contributor" or "Go-to Guy" player over the course of the course of next season -- though most probably won't. Pomeroy discusses growth "probabilities" in "Putting Individual Efficiency into Perspective" over at The Basketball Prospectus back in 2007. One thing about these players is clear -- most pushed to the upper limit of their growth curve each of the last two seasons.

			On Offense...
Player	Coll	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	PPWS
Dante Taylor	Pitt	36.4	124.9	16.4	16.5	1.22
Hollis Thompson	GTown	57.9	123.1	16.1	19.2	1.29
Alex Oriakhi	UConn	71.4	113.1	18.1	17.4	1.07
Shaun Noriega	So Fla	40.7	109.4	18.4	24.1	1.12
Brandon Triche	Cuse	71.6	107.5	21.4	21.8	1.10
Mouphtaou Yarou	Nova	60.1	107.0	19.7	18.4	1.08
Cashmere Wright	Nati	63.3	105.3	22.3	19.2	1.08
Travon Woodall	Pitt	53.8	105.1	19.9	18.3	0.98
Dominic Cheek	Nova	46.9	100.6	17.1	19.2	0.96

Dante Taylor was one of those heralded high school recruits that everyone fought over back in the summer of 2009. Pitt won the sweepstakes and Taylor, along with classmate -- but now rising sophomore -- Talib Zanna was the heir apparent to DeJuan Blair and Aaron Gray. No one thought much about an off-the-radar transfer back then named Gary McGhee. McGhee improved every season he was at Pitt and became the low post mainstay over the next three seasons. Defensive rebounding may be one reason Taylor could not move McGhee out of the starting lineup (see the "Miscellaneous" table below...or maybe his penchant for picking up fouls?), but McGhee is gone this season, so Taylor and Zanna (and freshman Klem Birch) will divvy up McGhee's minutes. The way will not get much clearer for the 6-9 player, but he will have to control the fouling and work on his defensive rebounding. At 5-11 out of Seton Hall Prep, Travon Woodall was regarded as the one "Most Likely to Suceed"...Levance Fields at the point. Woodall took a red shirt his freshman year, Ashton Gibbs went on to lead the U19 Men's Team to a World Championship in 2009 and Woodall's role became back up to Gibbs. Tray's minutes, offensive rating and role within the offense has progressed each of the past two seasons. With Gibbs nailing three pointers at a 49% clip, I would not be surprised to see Coach Dixon play Woodall and Gibbs in tandem, with the red shirt junior taking the point and allowing Gibbs to roam. If Woodall can improve his outside shot and assists (that should not be hard since he has Gibbs, Taylor and Nasir Robinson to pass to), the Panthers will not miss a beat. The Hoyas will return less than half of their minutes (48%) and an even smaller percentage of their scoring (42%). Expect larger offensive roles for virtually all of the returning players, especially Hollis Thompson. Though the 6-7 rising junior has two years of experience, he actually enrolled at Georgetown in the spring of 2009 and practiced with the team that semester. The 6-7 wing has seen his minutes and role grow modestly even as his offensive rating (top table) exploded. With the graduation of Austin Freeman and Chris Wright look for Thompson (and rising senior Jason Clark) get more touches and scoring opportunities...and attention from the defense. If Thompson can maintain (or even improve) his offensive efficiency with a larger role, the Hoyas should have a very nice resume to present to the Selection Committee next March.

			Four Factors...
						FTA
Player	Coll	%Min	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
Dante Taylor	Pitt	36.4	61.6	17.0	12.3	46.4
Hollis Thompson	GTown	57.9	63.0	6.7	13.3	26.5
Alex Oriakhi	UConn	71.4	50.7	14.5	12.7	45.7
Shaun Noriega	So Fla	40.7	52.7	1.8	15.0	24.4
Brandon Triche	Cuse	71.6	50.0	4.3	19.9	30.6
Mouphtaou Yarou	Nova	60.1	49.8	13.4	16.0	57.2
Cashmere Wright	Nati	63.3	48.3	1.3	22.9	47.9
Travon Woodall	Pitt	53.8	42.9	1.3	21.3	44.0
Dominic Cheek	Nova	46.9	43.6	7.5	15.2	28.0

With something of a break out season in 2011 (offensive efficiency if not offensive role), Alex Oriakhi will most definitely make more than a few Break Out/Watch lists in the next two months. Kemba Walker has moved on to the NBA (if the lock out ever ends...), so the scoring should be a bit more distributed throughout the Husky squad. Entering freshman Andre Drummond might be grabbing headlines, but don't be fooled, credible talk of a repeat National Championship will rest far, far more on the shoulders of Oriakhi, Jeremy Lamb and Shabazz Napier. The hottest seat in the Big East going into this season has to belong to South Florida's head coach Stan Heath. Shaun Noriega joined an off guard rotation that included JUCOs Jawanza Poland, Hugh Robertson and Shedrick Haynes that scrambled to replace the large scoring gap created with the departure of Dominic Jones. The Bulls' revolving door continues as Haynes left at the end of the season. Though Poland took most of the minutes, Noriega, with his 37% three point conversion rate, carved a role for himself on the perimeter. Poland's numbers were not that impressive, so the opening is there, if the local star (Noriega graduated North Port HS, about 85 miles south of the Tampa-based USF campus) can step up his defense and convert more consistently from inside the arc. Bringing in Lance Stephenson for a single season back in 2010 was costly to some of the other players on the roster. To make room for Stephenson, the Bearcats had to shift Rashad Bishop and Dion Dixon around, a move that Bishop in particular had difficulty with (he was suspended near the end of the 2010 season and not re-instated until late August 2010, in time for Cincinnati's exhibition tour in Canada). One of the other casualties (by indirection) was Cashmire Wright. The red shirt freshman (missed the 2009 season with an ACL) would have formed a back court rotation with then-senior Deonta Vaughn and Sean Kirkpatrick. Kirkpatrick took a red shirt and Wright played more back up to Vaughn, rather than in tandem with Vaughn. The point was pushed a bit by Kirkpatrick in 2011, but managed to up his minutes, offensive rating, assist rate and shot efficiency even shot rate stalled. Note his possession rate was well within the 95% certainty area (ie, he did not push the envelop) even though Vaughn graduated and Stephenson moved off to the NBA. Wright's role (possession and shot rates) should "grow" another 1-3% next season.

		Miscellaneous...
Player	Coll	Ast%	DR%	Blk%	Stl%
Dante Taylor	Pitt	4.3	17.5	4.9	0.5
Hollis Thompson	GTown	6.2	16.1	2.0	2.0
Alex Oriakhi	UConn	2.5	18.2	5.6	0.8
Shaun Noriega	So Fla	6.1	5.0	1.4	1.0
Brandon Triche	Cuse	18.5	6.2	0.3	1.7
Mouphtaou Yarou	Nova	3.4	20.7	4.7	1.1
Cashmere Wright	Nati	31.5	9.8	0.3	3.3
Travon Woodall	Pitt	28.6	10.5	0.3	2.2
Dominic Cheek	Nova	7.0	13.0	1.3	2.4

Coming off of a promising freshman year, expectations were sky-high for Dominic Cheek. The rising junior's sophomore season mirrored the team's...unfortunately. Losing senior Corey Stokes left a large opening for Cheek to step into, albeit a year early. Cheek had difficulty, reflected in the decline of his offensive and shot efficiencies. The team as a whole struggled as well. Mouphtaou Yarou by cotrast, struggled his freshman season. Sidelined with a touch of Hepatitis B, the then-freshman did not get back into the lineup until the eve of February, more than half a season later than hoped for. His minutes and role grew in 2011, but his offensive rating and shot efficiency (eFG%) took a hit -- greater visibility draws greater (defensive) attention. Both are keys to the Wildcats' prospects in 2012. If they develop the Nova Nation should be happy with the results. Both Cheek and Yarou, along with point guard Maalik Wayns, were scoring leaders for Villanova on their European Tour this summer. Cheek in particular took a large portion of the shots (29.2%) while managing to convert very efficiently, highlighed by a 34 point outing versus the Israeli National Team. Yarou continued to dominate on the boards even as he stepped up his scoring, a good sign despite the Wildcats' disappointing 1-4 tour record. Syracuse had a tremendous year in 2010, despite losing some 2+ year mainstays in the program. The success of 2010 obscured the lingering problems at point guard, one of the starting position left up for grabs with the departure of Jonny Flynn. Coach Beoheim claimed that Brandon Triche would step in and the Orange would not lose a beat. And indeed in 2010 that appeared to be true, though in truth it was more "point by committee", with Andy Rautins and a brace of wing/front court players setting the table for each other. Oh, and Scoop Jardine, who after a red shirt year returned with what appears to be a more determined inclination to fit into Boeheim's system. 2011 brought Dion Waiters, a talented (if edgy) addition to the back court who was supposed to push Trich (and Jardine) for time at the point. Triche nevertheless improved his minutes, possession and shot rates (even if his efficiency numbers went sideways). Triche will likely not be pushed aside by wings Trevor Cooney or Michael Carter-Willliams (Waiters and Jardine, hampered with some bad habits may not fair as well). Like Woodall and Wright, Triche will probably have a solid season that will see his role within the Orange offense grow (but not explode). He should be a reliable and consistent (and "Major"?) contributor/leader going into his senior season.

What About...?
Marquette's big center, Chris Otule has the requisite minutes and efficiency for this list, but the rising junior (though I am a Buzz Williams fan) finds himself in a program that relies on speed and mobility to score. For Otule to carve a larger role for himself the guards would have to stop long enough to attempt low post entry passes, and I am not sure that play is in the Marquette playbook. He was not a dominant enough defensive rebounder (very good offensive rebounding numbers though) to motivate his coach to define an offensive role (beyond rebound and put back) for him. By season's end Otule was being pushed hard by freshman Devante Gardiner, a 6-9 low post player with a more polished offensive repertoire. Vincent Council (& Duke Mondy), Bilal Dixon (& Kadeem Batts) are members of that large Providence class recruited by Keno Davis in his second season. Davis is gone, and with the changeover to Ed Cooley, expect a lower tempo, more inside scoring and a larger emphasis on defense. That should benefit Batts and Dixon, two wing/forwards (think Fairfield's front court pair Anthony Johnson and Mike Evanovich here). Cooley may, however, choose to stay with the guard/outside oriented, high tempo offense run by Davis (and Tim Welsh before Davis), which should translate into more touches/shots for Council and/or Mondy.

Hits and Misses...Last Season's "Rising Juniors"
Kevin Jones had a great season and made the All Big East Honorable Mention team. Darius Johnson-Odom was named to the All Conference Second Team while Kris Joseph made the All-Conference Third Team. Cincinnati's bfc Yancy Gates led the team in minutes played, points scored (tied with Dion Dixon), rebounds and blocked shots. Gates was invited to tryout for the World University Games men's squad in July. Point guard Darryl Bryant saw his minutes hold steady even as his role in the Mountaineer offense grew marginally. His efficiency dropped slightly (though he maintained a top 500 standing on assists) as increasingly it seems he will become a volume scorer. The same can be said of Jordan Theordore. The Hall's point saw his minutes and offensive role grow, but his efficiency crashed (too many turnovers) even has his scoring efficiency did not improve. Theodore and Bryant will return to lead their teams for one more season. Among the front court players, Gus Gilchrist, Jeff Robinson, Kris Joseph and Terrence Jenningsall saw their minutes grow dramatically. Gilchrist became a "Go-to Guy" for the offense-challenged Bulls, but saw his offensive efficiency crash, a very common outcome when a player's role expands beyond the "Role Player" level. As the individual becomes more visible offensively, he also draws more defensive attention. Joseph was on everyone's "break out candidate" short list. And though the small forward saw his minutes and role in the offense grow even as he maintained relatively efficient shot conversion, his offensive efficiency decline modestly (111 down to 108). Robinson's minutes may have increased, but his role with respect to the team did not. Eligiblity exhausted, he left the program at the end of the 2011 season. Jennings was a well-regarded recruit when he joined the Cardinals in 2009 as part of a class that included Samardo Samuels. Even though many regarded the bfc as equivalent to Samuels, his inability to win more playing time from Samuels, or produce consistently enough to allow Coach Pitino to entertain Twin Tower schemes, Jennings remained firmly behind Samuels on the depth chart until the (then sophomore) jumped to the NBA in 2010. Though his role grew minimally (high-end role player to low-end major contributor), his efficiency declined, and as an appropo ending to a head scratching career at Louisville, the junior (against all advice...) jumped into the NBA draft. And went undrafted.