Marquette #03

The Wildcats meet the Warriors in the 2pm quarter final game in this season's Big East Tournament. Villanova is seeded #4, earning the pass to the quarter final round by virtue of their 7-2 run through the last ½ of their Big East regular season schedule. The Warriors earned the #5 seed based on a 10-6 record. They started very strongly, running out to a 9-0 record before limping home with a 3-6 consclusion.

Previous Meetings...
The Wildcats and Warriors split their two games this season, both teams winning on their home courts. The Warriors won in Milwaukee, 79-72, on January 1, but the Wildcats broke back, taking the game played at the Pavilion 102-84, on February 10. The teams played the first game for 72 possessions and the second game for 77 possessions. Both games were played well above the D1 average for possessions (about 66-67).

Lately...
The biggest news since their February 10 meeting was Dom James' season-ending injury. James, a four year starter, broke his foot early in Marquette's February 25 game versus Connecticut. Marquette lost that game and the three that followed, their losing run broken when they smashed St. John's yesterday, 74-45. Marquette's Offensive & Defensive Ratings going into the Connecticut game were 114.3/96.8, producing an efficiency differential of .175 (very good). The Warriors' ratings put them in the Top 5 for both offense and defense in the conference. In the 5 games since James' injury Marquette has limped along with ratings at 108.0/108.8, the efficiency differential is -.009, not promising. Their game versus St. John's erased a much larger offense/defense gap. Marqutte's major area of weakness, absent James, is shot efficiency (eFG%). In the four games since his injury they have nearly switched their offensive eFG% with their defensive eFG%.

Pomeroy, Pythagoras...
The log5 probabilities show Villanova has a 56.4% chance of taking this game. The teams will probably play for about 70 possessions, slightly above the D1 average, but well below the pace of their last game. Looking at offensive/defensive efficiencies post James is not promsing for Marquette. My calculations suggest the Wildcats will take this game by a double digit margin. If the Wildcats score 80 points they should win.

What Others Say
Looking around for more previews? Try...
Rob Lowe over at Cracked Sidewalks. Rob gives a stats-first analysis with keys to the game. Rob also links to a good many Villanova blogs at the end of his review.
The PDN's Mike Kern slapped together a a quickie preview, mostly from "Staff and wire reports", according to the banner. Guess he was on his way out the door to catch the Owls game. He did put a good deal more time and effort in on a focus piece on senior forward Dwayne Anderson. If you can read only one Mike Kern story today, read the one about Dwayne...