As the latest winter storm builds over Philadelphia (real snow, not an obscure reference to the aftermath of the Georgetown loss), the Wildcats take their leave and travel to the hinterlands of Indiana, where they will engage the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame University at the Joyce Center, the sixth program whose season is "on the brink". Notre Dame, losing only senior front court player Rob Kurz, was a consensus preseason choice to finish among the Big East's double-bye teams. The Irish did not disappoint, rolling through their OOC schedule to a late December 8-2 record, the two hiccups (North Carolina, Ohio State) more or less understandable. Their Big East season has been a very different story as Notre Dame stumbled to a 7-9 record so far (15-12 overall), that featured a nasty 7 game losing streak (6 in conference, the last to the PAC 10's UCLA). Their loss to Connecticut Saturday gurantees the Irish will finish with, at best, a .500 conference record. Villanova and Notre Dame have played 30 games in a series that dates back to 1970. Nova leads 16-14...
Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
Notre Dame (15-12, 7-9, RPI #40) pulled out of their 7 game skid with a 33 point thumping of Louisville. That 90-57 win was the opening game in the current 4-2 run to close out the season. An RPI-based comparison will highlight Villanova and Notre Dame's body of work this season...
Notre Dame's worst loss is to St. John's -- the Johnnies (RPI #145) handed the Irish a 71-65 road loss on 1/3/09. ...
Lineups, Rotations...
...Notre Dame's starting lineup has not changed this season. Senior Zach Hillesland's (6-9, 233lbs) status aside, head coach Mike Brey has started junior bf Luke Harangody (6-8, 251lbs) in the front court, with senior guards Ryan Ayers (6-7, 210lbs) and Kyle McAlarney (6-0, 195lbs) on the wing. Junior Tory Jackson (5-11, 193lbs) will run the point. Coach Brey has used an 8 man rotation for most games -- the next three are sophomore guard Ty Nash (6-8, 220lbs), junior guard Jon Peoples (6-3, 215lbs) and senior bf/c Luke Zeller (6-10, 235lbs). Who starts in Hillesland's spot, should rumors be true, will depend on what skill set Coach Brey wants to bring to the start of the game. Hillesland is a good rebounder and passer, but does not demand "his shot" often.
Villanova's staff has settled on the starting lineup of Dante Cunningham along with Shane Clark in the front court, and Dwayne Anderson on the wing with Scottie Reynolds and Reggie Redding in the back court. These 5 have started the last 7 games (Senior Night excepted). It is a safe to expect the run continue with the Georgetown game. Clark and Anderson have skills sets that have provem to be a good complement to Dante's own front court skills. While more than a few of the Nova faithful held their breath when Clark first started, he has proven to be extremely effective on the boards, and an efficient 4th (or so) option on offense. He has made offensive rebounding his specialty, and DePaul game aside, has done a masterful job getting the 'Cats 2nd (and 3rd) chances. Reggie Redding has had a series of strong outings lately, the time invested in his development appears to be generating returns. The Coreys, Fisher and Stokes will see time in the back court (Fish) and wing (Stokes), and given that Monroe and Summers have developed into a solid front court, I would also expect to see Antonio Pena get time as well.
By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
With an adjusted tempo of 68.6, Notre Dame games run nearly 2 possessions above the D1 average (66.7). Lately the 'Cats appear to do better running rather than walking. Expect the pace for this game to go into the 70s. Irish teams under Coach Mike Brey have developed a reputation for potent offenses; this edition carries on that tradition with a ranking of #5 (overall, #2 among Big East teams) for offensive efficiency (118.3 adjusted, per Ken Pomeroy). Note the 'Cats are ranked 7th in the Big East, #28 (113.5) overall. Comparing the elements that most influence Notre Dame's rating with Villanova's defensive factors...
I was surprised that Notre Dame's eFG% was not higher (they are ranked #113 overall, #9 in the Big East). The Irish are more efficient at converting 3FGAs (39.3, #25 by Ken Pomeroy) -- that scales to a 59.3% for 2s -- than 2FGAs (46.4%, #238, also per Pomeroy). The Wildcats, committed to limiting conversions inside the arc, are currently holding opponents to a 45.5% 2FGA conversion rate. Their "shut down the inside" bias could, if not adjusted for the competition, work against the Wildcats in this game. The Irish are a bit more inclined than the average D1 team, to take an outside shot -- about 33.9% of their FGAs come from beyond the arc (#143). Who would take those shots? McAlarney 1st and foremost, followed by (using percentage of 3FGAs/FGAs) Ayers (68.6%) and then Zeller (67.1%). Each is relatively accurate too, Ayers converting at a 41.3%, Zeller at a less accurate 34.4%. Notre Dame excels at turnovers -- they don't. They are ranked #1 by Pomeroy at low turnover rates (13.7, just over 1 in 8 possessions lost). Tory Jackson is ranked #203 in Pomeroy's top 500 for assist rate; he will set the table and either McAlarney or Harangody will finish. Between them, those two took nearly 1 of every 2 FGAs taken (45.5%) when they are on the floor together. They form a classic inside (Harangody) - outside (McAlarney) combination. Harangody, last season's BE POY takes 33.2% of the possessions and 34.3% of the shot when he is on the court. McAlarney takes 19.4% of the possessions and 21.3% of the shots. Each has about the same assist rate (15.0 & 16.4 respectively), suggesting they look for their own shot first, but do pass to the open man. Four of five in Notre Dame's starting lineup are ranked in the upper half of the conference for assists, according to Ken Pomeroy. Behind Harangody and McAlarney, Luke Zeller, Jackson and Ayers wait for their shots. Peoples, Nash and Hillesland play more limited roles in the offense, tending to defer to others on the court, each has an assist rate of about 10% or higher (15.2, 9.8 & 15.5 respectively). Nash, Peoples, Hillesland and Zeller along with Harangody take care of the boards. If Luke Harangody does not have the offensive rebound, look for Nash, Hillesland, Peoples or Zeller to have it.
The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus Notre Dame's defense:
The eFG% contrast suggests the 'Cats shoot a bit better than the Irish, and Notre Dame does not defend the shot quite as well as Villanova. Notre Dame defeds the 3FGA (33.3, #119) better than the 2FGA (48.3, #197). Do not expect another turnover-impeded performance from the Wildcats; Notre Dame ranks #343 (out of #344) in defensive turnover rates. The Irish will rebound however. If Notre Dame is average on the offensive boards, they are decidedly better at defensive rebounding. Expect Harangody (ranked #13 with a tremendous 26.6% rebounding rate) to lead, complemented by Nash, Hillesland and Zeller to give Clark, Anders, Cunningham and Pena all they can handle for 2nd chance opportunities...
Want to Beat Notre Dame? Then...
The leading indicator is again shot efficiency. On both sides of the ball.
1. Contest their shots -- the 'Cats have given a few poor shooting teams very big nights (Rutgers). Holding down their scoring efficiencies would provide a big step to winning this game as this appears to the strongest factor for winning and losing. When Notre Dame shoots to less than their eFG% (50.7) or lower, they have gone 4-10. When held to Nova's defensive eFG% or lower, they are 2-8.
2. Hit your shots -- When the Wildcats have an eFG% of 50.0 or better they are 16-1.
3. Limit their 2nd Chance Opportunities -- the Irish are average offensive rebounders, Harangody's outstanding individual numbers (11.7, #148) notwithstanding. When held to that rebounding rate Notre Dame is 4-9.
4. Limit turnovers -- the Irish do not force turnovers, on defense, so if the 'Cats can limit their turnover rate to less than Notre Dame's defensive rate (14.7), their chances improve. Notre Dame is 7-9 when opponents turn it over at less than their rate. When the 'Cats have turned it over at 19.2 (their rate) or less, they have gone 12-1. Notre Dame is 11-11 when their opponents turn it over at Villanova's rate.
Finally...
...It is the last week of the semester and every under achieving team in the Big East (like every under achieving student) senses the urgency that comes with each diminishing chance. Notre Dame really needs this game. At 7-9 they have to run the table (and do a bit of work in the BET) to work themselves back into the NCAA discussion. Do the Wildcats feel the same urgency? Is pulling a #3 seed and drawing the Philadelphia pod for the 1st weekend incentive enough?
Per Ken Pomeroy's Villanova Team Page, this game should go for about 70 possessions (both team's comfort zone), with Nova dropping a 1 point decision. Pomeroy's degree of certainty (43%) is just below a "comfortable" margin of certainty, and coupled with the margin, 1 point, suggests this could be a 1-2 possession game.
Roster Notes...
Notre Dame front court player Zach Hillesland is out according to a Chicago Tribune report with a severe sternum bruise sustained Saturday against Connecticut.
Other Previews...
The guys at IBBW have a good preview with keys to the game.
Pete over at Let's Go Nova stresses how much Notre Dame wants this game.
Tim at Nova News provides a good many facts about Notre Dame, then gives his prediction (you will have to follow the link and read for yourself).
The anonymous blogger over at the NBE Report writes a detailed preview and provides links to more commercials or ink previews (mostly from midwest papers). Which is which? Hint...the ones underlined twice take you to resume writers and gaming sites.
Fact over at Fact on Villanova Sports writes an essay listing everything he hates about Notre Dame. And a few things he likes. And then he gives a prediction.
For a glimpse at a Notre Dame take on the game, visit the Black and Green Blog, where the blogger writes a concise summary of the important elements.
Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
Notre Dame (15-12, 7-9, RPI #40) pulled out of their 7 game skid with a 33 point thumping of Louisville. That 90-57 win was the opening game in the current 4-2 run to close out the season. An RPI-based comparison will highlight Villanova and Notre Dame's body of work this season...
| vs RPI | Conference | ||||||
| RPI | 1-50 | 51-100 | >100 | Overall | Home | Away | |
| Notre Dame | 68 | 3-10 | 1-1 | 13-1 | 7-9 | 5-2 | 2-7 |
| Villanova | 16 | 5-6 | 4-0 | 14-0 | 11-5 | 6-2 | 5-3 |
Notre Dame's worst loss is to St. John's -- the Johnnies (RPI #145) handed the Irish a 71-65 road loss on 1/3/09. ...
Lineups, Rotations...
...Notre Dame's starting lineup has not changed this season. Senior Zach Hillesland's (6-9, 233lbs) status aside, head coach Mike Brey has started junior bf Luke Harangody (6-8, 251lbs) in the front court, with senior guards Ryan Ayers (6-7, 210lbs) and Kyle McAlarney (6-0, 195lbs) on the wing. Junior Tory Jackson (5-11, 193lbs) will run the point. Coach Brey has used an 8 man rotation for most games -- the next three are sophomore guard Ty Nash (6-8, 220lbs), junior guard Jon Peoples (6-3, 215lbs) and senior bf/c Luke Zeller (6-10, 235lbs). Who starts in Hillesland's spot, should rumors be true, will depend on what skill set Coach Brey wants to bring to the start of the game. Hillesland is a good rebounder and passer, but does not demand "his shot" often.
Villanova's staff has settled on the starting lineup of Dante Cunningham along with Shane Clark in the front court, and Dwayne Anderson on the wing with Scottie Reynolds and Reggie Redding in the back court. These 5 have started the last 7 games (Senior Night excepted). It is a safe to expect the run continue with the Georgetown game. Clark and Anderson have skills sets that have provem to be a good complement to Dante's own front court skills. While more than a few of the Nova faithful held their breath when Clark first started, he has proven to be extremely effective on the boards, and an efficient 4th (or so) option on offense. He has made offensive rebounding his specialty, and DePaul game aside, has done a masterful job getting the 'Cats 2nd (and 3rd) chances. Reggie Redding has had a series of strong outings lately, the time invested in his development appears to be generating returns. The Coreys, Fisher and Stokes will see time in the back court (Fish) and wing (Stokes), and given that Monroe and Summers have developed into a solid front court, I would also expect to see Antonio Pena get time as well.
By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
With an adjusted tempo of 68.6, Notre Dame games run nearly 2 possessions above the D1 average (66.7). Lately the 'Cats appear to do better running rather than walking. Expect the pace for this game to go into the 70s. Irish teams under Coach Mike Brey have developed a reputation for potent offenses; this edition carries on that tradition with a ranking of #5 (overall, #2 among Big East teams) for offensive efficiency (118.3 adjusted, per Ken Pomeroy). Note the 'Cats are ranked 7th in the Big East, #28 (113.5) overall. Comparing the elements that most influence Notre Dame's rating with Villanova's defensive factors...
| When Notre Dame has the ball... | ||||
| FTA | ||||
| eFG% | TO% | OR% | FGA | |
| Irish O | 50.7 | 13.7 | 33.1 | 26.4 |
| Wildcat D | 47.1 | 21.9 | 30.8 | 36.7 |
I was surprised that Notre Dame's eFG% was not higher (they are ranked #113 overall, #9 in the Big East). The Irish are more efficient at converting 3FGAs (39.3, #25 by Ken Pomeroy) -- that scales to a 59.3% for 2s -- than 2FGAs (46.4%, #238, also per Pomeroy). The Wildcats, committed to limiting conversions inside the arc, are currently holding opponents to a 45.5% 2FGA conversion rate. Their "shut down the inside" bias could, if not adjusted for the competition, work against the Wildcats in this game. The Irish are a bit more inclined than the average D1 team, to take an outside shot -- about 33.9% of their FGAs come from beyond the arc (#143). Who would take those shots? McAlarney 1st and foremost, followed by (using percentage of 3FGAs/FGAs) Ayers (68.6%) and then Zeller (67.1%). Each is relatively accurate too, Ayers converting at a 41.3%, Zeller at a less accurate 34.4%. Notre Dame excels at turnovers -- they don't. They are ranked #1 by Pomeroy at low turnover rates (13.7, just over 1 in 8 possessions lost). Tory Jackson is ranked #203 in Pomeroy's top 500 for assist rate; he will set the table and either McAlarney or Harangody will finish. Between them, those two took nearly 1 of every 2 FGAs taken (45.5%) when they are on the floor together. They form a classic inside (Harangody) - outside (McAlarney) combination. Harangody, last season's BE POY takes 33.2% of the possessions and 34.3% of the shot when he is on the court. McAlarney takes 19.4% of the possessions and 21.3% of the shots. Each has about the same assist rate (15.0 & 16.4 respectively), suggesting they look for their own shot first, but do pass to the open man. Four of five in Notre Dame's starting lineup are ranked in the upper half of the conference for assists, according to Ken Pomeroy. Behind Harangody and McAlarney, Luke Zeller, Jackson and Ayers wait for their shots. Peoples, Nash and Hillesland play more limited roles in the offense, tending to defer to others on the court, each has an assist rate of about 10% or higher (15.2, 9.8 & 15.5 respectively). Nash, Peoples, Hillesland and Zeller along with Harangody take care of the boards. If Luke Harangody does not have the offensive rebound, look for Nash, Hillesland, Peoples or Zeller to have it.
The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus Notre Dame's defense:
| When Villanova has the ball... | ||||
| FTA | ||||
| eFG% | TO% | OR% | FGA | |
| Wildcat O | 51.6 | 19.2 | 36.5 | 44.3 |
| Irish D | 48.8 | 14.7 | 30.6 | 26.8 |
The eFG% contrast suggests the 'Cats shoot a bit better than the Irish, and Notre Dame does not defend the shot quite as well as Villanova. Notre Dame defeds the 3FGA (33.3, #119) better than the 2FGA (48.3, #197). Do not expect another turnover-impeded performance from the Wildcats; Notre Dame ranks #343 (out of #344) in defensive turnover rates. The Irish will rebound however. If Notre Dame is average on the offensive boards, they are decidedly better at defensive rebounding. Expect Harangody (ranked #13 with a tremendous 26.6% rebounding rate) to lead, complemented by Nash, Hillesland and Zeller to give Clark, Anders, Cunningham and Pena all they can handle for 2nd chance opportunities...
Want to Beat Notre Dame? Then...
The leading indicator is again shot efficiency. On both sides of the ball.
1. Contest their shots -- the 'Cats have given a few poor shooting teams very big nights (Rutgers). Holding down their scoring efficiencies would provide a big step to winning this game as this appears to the strongest factor for winning and losing. When Notre Dame shoots to less than their eFG% (50.7) or lower, they have gone 4-10. When held to Nova's defensive eFG% or lower, they are 2-8.
2. Hit your shots -- When the Wildcats have an eFG% of 50.0 or better they are 16-1.
3. Limit their 2nd Chance Opportunities -- the Irish are average offensive rebounders, Harangody's outstanding individual numbers (11.7, #148) notwithstanding. When held to that rebounding rate Notre Dame is 4-9.
4. Limit turnovers -- the Irish do not force turnovers, on defense, so if the 'Cats can limit their turnover rate to less than Notre Dame's defensive rate (14.7), their chances improve. Notre Dame is 7-9 when opponents turn it over at less than their rate. When the 'Cats have turned it over at 19.2 (their rate) or less, they have gone 12-1. Notre Dame is 11-11 when their opponents turn it over at Villanova's rate.
Finally...
...It is the last week of the semester and every under achieving team in the Big East (like every under achieving student) senses the urgency that comes with each diminishing chance. Notre Dame really needs this game. At 7-9 they have to run the table (and do a bit of work in the BET) to work themselves back into the NCAA discussion. Do the Wildcats feel the same urgency? Is pulling a #3 seed and drawing the Philadelphia pod for the 1st weekend incentive enough?
Per Ken Pomeroy's Villanova Team Page, this game should go for about 70 possessions (both team's comfort zone), with Nova dropping a 1 point decision. Pomeroy's degree of certainty (43%) is just below a "comfortable" margin of certainty, and coupled with the margin, 1 point, suggests this could be a 1-2 possession game.
Roster Notes...
Notre Dame front court player Zach Hillesland is out according to a Chicago Tribune report with a severe sternum bruise sustained Saturday against Connecticut.
Other Previews...
The guys at IBBW have a good preview with keys to the game.
Pete over at Let's Go Nova stresses how much Notre Dame wants this game.
Tim at Nova News provides a good many facts about Notre Dame, then gives his prediction (you will have to follow the link and read for yourself).
The anonymous blogger over at the NBE Report writes a detailed preview and provides links to more commercials or ink previews (mostly from midwest papers). Which is which? Hint...the ones underlined twice take you to resume writers and gaming sites.
Fact over at Fact on Villanova Sports writes an essay listing everything he hates about Notre Dame. And a few things he likes. And then he gives a prediction.
For a glimpse at a Notre Dame take on the game, visit the Black and Green Blog, where the blogger writes a concise summary of the important elements.
2 comments:
I would really prefer if this wasn't a 1-2 possession game! :)
And it wasn't! An unexpectedly (but very welcomed) strong win over another bubble team. Notre Dame has been a disappointment to their fans this season, but this was a good confidence builder for the Wildcats. Hopefully they can return to Philadelphia and take care of business with the Friars Thursday.
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