Rutgers 02 Post Game: Trap Games

1.25 ppp...and They Lost?!
Up five with 0:11 left, everyone in the RAC had to know that Rutgers would need two possessions. James Beaty hit a three pointer four seconds into the possession, leaving Villanova with the ball and six seconds to kill. They could not play keep away for six seconds as Dane Miller fouled Corey Fisher with five seconds left. The senior guard hits both free throws and it is over, but the Fish could only convert one, leaving Rutgers with the task of getting down the floor and setting up a three point attempt with six seconds left. Jon Mitchell hit the shot with less than a second showing, but worse, Fisher was called for a foul on the converted shot. To line went Mitchell where he gave Rutgers their first lead since the 18:00 mark of the first half. And a miracle win. And a few questions hanging.

The Villanova blogosphere is subdued tonight, whether questions about the unexpected loss or simply distracted by Saturday's GameDay it is hard to tell. VUHoops.com posted their trademark recap with player/team grades. The Nova Blog also posted a recap that gave a good deal of credit for the win. The Athletic Department website posted the official boxscore and the AP wire story, "No. 9 Villanova Stunned by Rutgers...". The breakdown by halves...

Opponent:		Rutgers University
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	27.8	33.1	60.9
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
eFG%	58.7	72.5	65.1		41.1	67.2	54.4
TORate	18.0	21.2	19.7		18.0	9.1	13.1
OR%	36.4	36.4	36.4		47.1	31.3	39.4
FTA/FGA	34.8	95.0	62.8		21.4	51.7	36.8
FTM/FGA	34.8	60.0	46.5		17.9	34.5	26.3
ARate	83.3	50.0	66.7		45.5	62.5	55.6
Blk%	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0
Stl%	10.8	12.5	11.7		14.4	5.9	9.7
PPWS	1.31	1.41	1.36		0.91	1.36	1.15
2FG%	56.3	63.6	59.3		45.5	50.0	47.5
3FG%	42.9	55.6	50.0		16.7	63.6	47.1
FT%	100.0	63.2	74.1		83.3	66.7	71.4
%2FG	51.4	34.1	42.1		71.4	36.7	49.4
%3FG	25.7	36.6	31.6		10.7	42.9	31.2
%FT	22.9	29.3	26.3		17.9	20.4	19.5

Another game that suggests the "Shoot 'em up" game strategy is moving to the scrap heap of history. At 60/61 possessions, this is another "well below the D1 mean", low possession game played by Villanova.

Records, Next Up...
Villanova's records stand at 19-5 overall and 7-4 in conference. The Wildcats lost another game to conference-leader Pitt, and to second place Notre Dame who beat Louisville. Rutgers ups it's record to 13-11 and 4-8 in conference play, moving into a tie with Seton Hall for 12^th place. Villanova returns to campus to play Pittsburgh in an ESPN-driven GameDay at the Pavilion. Rutgers continues their home-stand as they host Seton Hall next Saturday (2/13).

Preview -- Rutgers #01

Old Faces, New Beginnings
Rutgers and Villanova will open their Big East seasons in a noon game on Sunday January 2 at the Pavilion on Villanova's Main Line campus. Each squad returns most of their rosters from 2010, so there will be many familiar faces on both sides of the ball. A new/old face will belong to Mike Rice, in his first season as Rutgers' head coach. Right face, wrong context, as Rice came over from Robert Morris University, the school that took Villanova to overtime as a #15 seed in the 2010 NCAA Tournament. The Colonials bowed, by 3 points, after a very spirited 45 minutes of play. This will be Coach Rice's first trip to the Pavilion as a head coach...

	Nova		Rutgers
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
St. Joseph's	W (H)	+9	L (A)	-6
Marist	W (H)	+37	W (H)	+16
Monmouth	W (A)	+40	W (A)	+23

The Knight's best OOC win was a 16 point victory over Miami FL (ACC, 11-3, RPI #26). Their worst loss came at the hands of North Carolina (ACC, 9-4, RPI #21), a 23 point spanking at Madison Square Garden four days before their Big East opener at Villanova. The outcome is actually a step back from their 14 point 2009 loss (81-67) to the Tar Heels. ...

Lineups, Rotations...
...Coach Rice hit the recruiting trail even before he unpacked his bags. Most of the commitments however, will not be seen until next fall. In the meantime, he found a player or two to round out this season's roster, and maybe contribute more than scout team minutes. The Scarlet Knight back court will most likely feature seniors James Beatty (6-2, 190 lbs), a JUCO who joined the Knights for the 2010 season, and Mike Coburn (6-0, 185 lbs), who has started off and on though his four year career. Sophomore wing Dane Miller (6-7, 215 lbs), gives Rutgers a 'tweener who can play in either the back court or front court as the need arises. The front court will feature red shirt senior Jonathan Mitchell (6-7, 225 lbs), a transfer from Florida and High School teammate of Mike Coburn, who will play the #4, and Gilvydas Biruta (6-8, 230 lbs), a freshman out of St. Benedict's in Newark, NJ.

Coach Rice uses a nine man rotation, look for freshman guard/forward Mike Poole (6-5, 190 lbs), sophomore bfc Austin Johnson (6-8, 250 lbs), fifth year senior forward Robert Lumpkin (6-7, 215 labs) and freshman guard Austin Carroll (6-3, 200 lbs) to log minutes, double digits for each would not be surprising. In that group, Poole is the scorer.

Villanova has used the same starting five -- Corey Fisher and Maalik Ways will split the point duties with Fisher shifting to the off guard when the staff wants to push the ball up the floor. Corey Stokes, who has found consistency with his outside shot and emerged as the scoring leader to this point in the season will take the third guard spot, playing mostly on the wing. The front court positions will be manned by Antonio Pena and Mouphtaou Yarou. Pena is a senior who has started off and on, for the past three seasons, mostly on for the past two. Villanova's rotation can go to 11, but nine, the of players who logged time versus Temple on Thursday, is more typical, espeically in a closely contested game. Freshman wing James Bell, whose rehabilitation has proceeded very well, sophomores Dominic Cheek, Maurice Sutton and Isaiah Armwood logged time in the Temple game. Cheek and Armwood saw 16 and 14 minutes apiece, while Sutton and Bell logged a bit less time.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
Rutgers plays a slightly higher-than-average possession game (68.5 possessions, adjusted according to Ken Pomeroy's Rutgers Team Page -- the D1 average is 67.3), while Villanova prefers a pace just slightly higher. Neither team would be uncomfortable with a faster pace, and though Pomeroy projects 67 possessions, 70+ should not surprise. A "Four Factors" comparison when Rutgers has the ball...

When Rutgers has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Knight O	49.6	17.9	32.9	31.1
Wildcat D	42.4	19.0	25.0	30.8

RU's offense ranks, according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report, in the middle of Division 1 (a bit more than one standard deviation from the mean). Rutgers two problems in converting possessions into points comes from weak offensive rebounding (they do not get more than the average for second chance points) and they do not get to the line much. Their shot conversion rates are...average, not terrible, but not elite either. The S. Knights' biggest weakness comes at the line, they do not shoot free throws particularly well. Rutgers does not want to be in a close game that may have to be decided at the line. Villanova has become particulary good at defending the shot, their eFG% defense is ranked #12 in D1. Granted the OOC slate to this point has not featured strong shooting teams, but the difference here suggests a long afternoon for the Scarlet Knights, particularly if they do not start out strong, as the Wildcats are also very strong defensive rebounders (ranked #9). If the Knights miss their shots, they will most likely not get many second chances. The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus Rutgers' defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	50.1	16.9	35.3	42.7
Knight D	45.3	25.2	29.6	38.8

The Knights adjusted defense is 95.4, ranked #84 for Division 1, definitely among the top third of the division. They are credible shot defenders (good at defending both the two and the three, but ranked among the elite at defending the two), and enhance that strength with a very strong turnover rate, typically causing opponents to lose a quarter of their possessions without a shot. When opponents miss, the Scarlet Knights are likely to net the rebound, another significant improvement over last season's squad. Rebounding under Villanova's basket is a strength-to-strength match up that could prove to be critical to the outcome of the game.

Want to Beat Rutgers? Then...
The most significant determinates for this matchup include shooting and rebounding. And it is not close...
1. Hit your shots -- oddly more important than defending their shooting. The S. Knights have lost every game where they have allowed their opponents to post an eFG% of 55.6% or better, and have won every game where they limited their opponents to 48.7 or worse. Villanova averages 50.1%, and has shot better than 48% eFG in nine of their 12 games. Stokes and company may shoot below that 55.6% threshold, but they will not shoot 48% or less.
2. Control the offensive boards. Rutgers grabs 32.9% of their misses, and is 4-3 when they grab a lower percentage. They are 1-2 when they have grabbed less than 28% of their misses. Villanova typically limits opponents to 25%, and has limited opponents to fewer than 32% of their misses in nine of their 12 games.
3. Control the defensive boards. When Rutgers is 1-3 when limited to <28% of their misses. Villanova typically limits their opponents to 25.1% of their misses. Rutgers typically grabs 32.9% of their misses. Villanova has yielded that high a percentage of their opponents' offensive boards only three times. The 'Cats are 9-0 when limiting opponents to 32% or less.

Finally...
...Rutgers' defense is good, but the 'Cats have faced better this season. After the big game with Temple (elite defense, good offense) the fans can only hope that Villanova has had time to refocus and prepare for the Scarlet Knights.

I will be live blogging the game for Rush the Court tomorrow. Drop by and chat if you have the chance.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: North Carolina at Rutgers (at MSG)

by Ray Floriani
NEW YORK CITY - A featured game with North Carolina at Madison Square Garden closed the books on Rutgers non-conference schedule. Unfortunately for the Scarlet Knights, the 78-55 loss left some questions needing resolution with Big East play just days away.

Pre-game warmups
about an hour prior to the tip

Pace & Efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
North Carolina	76	103
Rutgers	76	72

North Carolina enjoys a brisk pace in the seventies while Rutgers is a mid-sixties tempo team. UNC forced the pace and kept the advantage through the duration.

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
North Carolina	56	15	31	21
Rutgers	38	17	17	21

Roy Williams and the Tar Heels huddle

Observations:
The First Four
As noted many times the first four minutes of each half can set the tone for the game. They did last night. North Carolina got out to a 7-2 lead after those first few minutes. A five point advantage with 16 minutes to play the first half is not a huge mountain to scale. But the character of the game was set. UNC established a fast tempo. A tempo they wanted. Even Rutgers coach Mike Rice noted that his club got caught up in the fast pace, rushed things and failed to cash in on early opportunities.

Defense.
UNC mentor Roy Williams said his defense has been sporadic this year. Tonight it was on. The TO rate and Rutgers eFG mark are exhibits A and B. UNC also rejected 7 shots with 6-10 sophomore John Henson leading the way with four.

Rutgers' Offense
Rutgers struggled all night to get an offensive rhythm. Jonathan Mitchell led all scorers with 20 points on 7 of 14 shooting. Other than Mitchell, a few nice Dane Miller (8 points) moves in the paint and Austin Johnson's 7 points, that was it for Rutgers.

Ball Movement...
...for North Carolina was outstanding. The first half the movement constantly found an open shooter on the perimeter. Their half court spacing allowed for penetration and/or kick outs to the perimeter. In transition they always seemed to make that extra pass. Williams was thrilled that none on the starters were in double figures. The leading scorers, sophomore guard Leslie McDonald (14 points) and junior guard Justin Watts (10 points) both came off the bench.

About Determination
Mike Rice frequently alluded to 'determination' in the presser. The Rutgers coach was clearly upset with his team's effort. A frustrating point per Rice was the occasion when a player missed a shot or made a bad play the effort would be missing on the defensive end. "We can't have that," Rice said. "We are about defense we always have to be ready to defend no matter what happened on the offensive end."

The sign says it all

How can Carolina have four losses?
As Roy Williams noted the last two years have seen about a dozen changes in personnel. This is still a young team that on days will look like this and others not nearly as good. Chalk it up to growing pains.

About Barnes
Highly touted freshman Harrison Barnes had 9 points and 3 rebounds in 22 minutes. Williams said, while the game results do not always bear it out, Barnes is making great strides daily in practice.

Dexter Strickland's uncle
grants an interview

Numbers.
Rutgers is 9-3 while North Carolina improved to 9-4. UNC was 11 of 17 (65%) from two point range the first half. Tar Heels cooled off a bit the last twenty minutes finishing at 46%. North Carolina enjoyed a monumental 38-13 edge in points off the bench. Sophomore guard Dexter Strickland, a Rahway, NJ native who starred at prep power St. Patrick's in Elizabeth, enjoyed his homecoming with a 9 point 3 rebound outing. Rutgers starts Big East play Sunday at Villanova.

Rutgers' Mike Rice meets the media

greyCat note -- Rush the Court will do a Live Blog from the Pavilion as both teams open their Big East seasons on Sunday.

2010-11 Preview -- Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Too Busy for the Details?
Year 20 of Rutgers rebuilding program begins with a new coach, the fourth of the rebuilding program. 20 years!? Yes, the Scarlet Knights, having won the Atlantic 10 Conference regular season advanced to the NCAA Tournament under (then coach) Bob Wenzel in 1991 with an at-large bid. New coach Mike Rice assumed control of a program whose fans were discouraged with a programs whose wins did not match the squads talent and roster was depleted by graduation and outbound transfers. If the effort he put into the first five months is any indication, Rice may well defy the trend and point the program in the right direction. In the 2011-12 season.   Prognosis -- An energetic 4th quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2011	2010	2009
%Min	59.9	52.5	85.5
%Pts	56.2	50.8	91.6
%FGM	53.6	54.2	91.3
%3FGM	59.2	47.9	93.0
%OReb	53.8	60.1	76.8
%DReb	55.2	57.1	81.9
%TReb	54.7	58.0	80.4

The returning numbers should be up across the board. Hamady N'diaye was the only graduating significant contributor, and the source of the large drop in rebounding. The attrition came through outbound transfers, a trend the new staff will hopefully be able to reverse.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2009-10		2008-09		2007-08
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
BE Off Eff	90.7	15	91.8	16	88.4	16
BE Def Eff	113.7	15	106.0	11	105.4	12
BE Eff Diff	-16.7	16	-14.6	15	-17.0	16
BE Off eFG%	47.6	12	45.0	13	45.2	15
BE Off TOv%	21.4	15	22.8	16	22.5	15
BE Off Reb%	34.3	10	33.3	12	28.2	16
BE Off FTR%	29.2	15	23.3	16	32.2	14

Running a multi-year double digit negative efficiency differential has to be put on the staff. A single season might be explained by a talent gap, but when the squad has All-Conference talent and the trend line barely moves, the staff is offering little by way of player development. Or the players are not listening. If his stint at Robert Morris is any indication Rutgers fans should see a more aggressive defense that forces turnovers and contests the defensive boards.

	For the Record...
	2009-10			2008-09			2007-08
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	15	17	0.469	11	21	0.344	11	20	0.355
Big East	5	13	0.278	2	16	0.111	3	15	0.167
Post Season?	BET Rnd #1			BET Rnd #1			NA

The Scarlet Knights' Nucleus
The cupboard may not have been picked bare, but the last season of the Fred Hill Era was another net minus for returning minutes, points and returnees in general. Coach Mike Rice will have an experienced (though maybe not quite All-Big East quality talent) back court, but he will to search for minutes, points and rebounds among his assembled front court. Recruiting/incoming players (see below) will have to help. Right now.

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
Jonathan Mitchell	82.1	104.0	18.3	23.4	48.1	4.7	1.02	13.5
Dane Miller	68.5	90.3	23.5	21.1	45.2	9.6	0.95	38.9
James Beatty	63.7	104.0	13.7	12.1	56.1	2.3	1.12	15.7
Mike Coburn	53.2	92.5	22.1	18.2	45.4	2.8	0.99	46.3
Austin Johnson	27.5	101.4	14.7	10.5	51.9	8.2	1.14	88.5

Some might wonder if Rutgers teams of the past had Big East-level players. That did not seem to be the problem in the last three seasons, as the staff signed and delivered all-state players in both the 2009 and 2010 season. Unfortunately a few transferred out before exhausting their eligibility. With Mike Rosario off to GatorLand, Patrick Jackson gone to Kent State and Hamady N'diaye graduated, sophomore forward Dane Miller and senior forward Jon Mitchell are the two most active returning offensive options. Transfer pg James Beatty was relatively efficient (see his 104.0 offensive rating), but nearly invisible in the offense (note his 13.7% possession and 12.1% shot rates), despite loggin about 60% of the minutes with the squad. He will probably see a jump just because Rosario is gone, but will have to be more assertive this season, if the Scarlet Knights are to see production from their backcourt spots. Look for Mike Coburn a 6-0 185 pound senior who appeared in all 32 games last season (starting in 15) to continue to log regular minutes in the rotation.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Jonathan Mitchell	82.1	14.9	9.2	13.2	0.7	1.5
Dane Miller	68.5	13.6	19.0	24.4	3.5	2.0
James Beatty	63.7	6.4	26.8	27.9	0.2	3.0
Mike Coburn	53.2	5.8	31.4	26.6	0.1	1.9
Austin Johnson	27.5	11.9	9.3	24.5	1.8	1.0

6-8 sophomore Austin Johnson was squarely in the rotation behind (at first) Greg Enchenique (since transferred to Creighton) and Hamady N'Diaye (graduated), appearing in 32 games for an average of 11.0 per game. While he showed an ability to be efficient (freshmen can have offensive ratings in the high 80s and still show promise their sophomore season), logging a 101.4, note that Johnson, like Beatty, was not the first or second (or third or fourth) option on offense when he was on the court. N'Diaye and Enchenique are gone, if the Knights are to show any low post offense Johnson will have to provide it.


Significant Additions
Coach Rice unpacked his bags, picked his staff and hit the recruiting trail. He has replenished the roster with six players (five new, one a returnee) for the 2010-11 season. Impressive to be sure, but next season's incoming group will be even better. 6-8, 230 pound Gilvydas Biruta is probably the best-regarded among the true freshmen. Biruta signed with Coach Hill, but Rice worked hard to sell Biruta on Rutgers a second time. Ranked #35 nationally among pfs, Biruta has a Big East body, a Euro-style shooter's touch from the outside, but also the ability to close and finish in the low post. Rice will definitely find something for him to do on the court. He should be a strong paint companion to Johnson. Biruta played for Dan Hurley's Grey Bees at St. Benedict's Prep in Newark, NJ. Fellow Grey Bee Mike Poole, a 6-6 195 pound sf joined Biruta in New Brunswick, and should see regular minutes on the wing for the Scarlet Knights this season. Coach Rice added an additional wing when post graduate Robert Lumpkin, a well-traveled 6-7 215 pound wing out of Washington DC who played two seasons for New Mexico State after transferring in from Kilgore College in Texas. Lumpkin will add experience to the wing positions. Coach Rice also gathered two guards, 6-3 185 true freshman Austin Carroll, a Brewster Academy graduate who will provide some perimeter shooting and another journeyman, 6-1 190 pound junior transfer Tyree Graham who left Texas Tech at the end of the fall semester of his freshman year. Graham surfaced at Brunswick Community College in North Carolina where he played the 2009-10 season for Coach Walter Shaw. Carroll is described by scouting services as a good complementary player, Carroll will probably see minutes in the back court rotation. Graham, described as competitive, will contribute points and assists next season, pending complete rehabilitation of his torn ACL. The returnee is Charlie Rigoglioso, a fourth year junior who transferred (out) to Moravian College after his freshman season (2007-08), and after one season at the small Pennsylvania college, back (in) to Rutgers where he sat (per NCAA rules) for the 2009-10 season. Rugoglioso is a walk-on who will provide depth in the backcourt and some game experience in practice.

Explode If...
Explode is a relative term. A good season for Rutgers would be to avoid the conference cellar and take a game or two they weren't supposed to win. Winning more than 12 games would be a good beginning for Coach Rice, but somewhere near or just outside the 95% confidence interval given the state of the program and squad.
1. Absolutely everything comes together for Mike Coburn and James Beatty...and Dane Miller proves to be the kind of impact player who can put the team on his back and win night in and night out. And Biruta makes Rice look like a genius for spotting talent.

Implode If...
1. Mid-major coaches tend to neglect conditioning when they move up to BCS coaching jobs. Older coaches like George Blaney never quite understood why their teams broke down (literally) in February (Blaney figured it out when he joined Coach Calhoun's staff at UConn, but he missed it completely when he headed the Seton Hall program). The younger guys have an understanding that some conditioning is required, but they usually underestimate the extent and commitment until their practices and routines begin to wear down their squad. Watch the headlines and notices through February, if members of the Scarlet rotation start showing up with nicks and dings, know the squad will be dog-tired by March. The schedule maker left a couple of "treats" at the end of Rutgers' regular season, but if the squad is spent, Rutgers may drop those otherwise winnable games.
2. This is Coach Rice's first BCS season, and no one really knows how he will handle the pressure. If the Scarlet Knights go into an extended slump (losing say, eight or ten games at a pop), the coach will struggle to keep the players focused and in the game.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
Though he coaches in a power conference, old habits are hard to break. Coach Rice has his Scarlet Knights on the road for six of Rutgers 12 out of conference games. Robert Morris may have had to live out of a suitcase in November and December, but Rutgers does not. Most of the travel is actually reasonable given the commitments, whether it is a good method to prepare for the Big East season is a debate for another day. The Knights will return a date with traditional New Jersey rival Princeton to open the season, take three games at home (one against Miami of the ACC), then travel down the Jersey Pike to the Palestra to play Saint Joseph's in the Philly Hoop Group Classic Championship round. Back to the RAC for two more games, then out to Pittsburgh for the Big East-SEC Invitational match with Auburn. Another home date with Green Knights of FDU, and back on the road to Monmouth to play in the Hawks' new arena. Back to the RAC to host St. Peter's, then off to Madison Square Garden to close out their three game contract with North Carolina. 9-3 would be a reasonable record going into their Big East schedule, though an upset one way or another could yield eight or ten wins.

The road theme continues into conference play as Rutgers opens on the road with one of their mirror opponents, Villanova. While January holds a few challenges (the opener at Villanova, Marquette and Georgetown at home), February could be make or break month. Beginning on January 29, and over the course of the next 30 days the Scarlet Knights host Pittsburgh, Villanova, Seton Hall, Louisville and West Virginia, interspersed with road trips to St. John's, Notre Dame, and Syracuse. As Hoops Heaven's Jerry Carino noted, Rutgers could easily go 0-8 in February. Granted they close out March with (winnable?) road games at DePaul and Providence, but by that time the squad may be mentally and physically, beaten to a pulp. If Rutgers is to avoid the last seed in the Big East Tournament, Coach Rice will have to find at least three, possibly four wins. The Scarlet Knights are mirrored this season with Providence, Seton Hall and Villanova. Sweeping Providence would establish the pecking order, but Rutgers will also have to beat South Florida (in the RAC on 1/20) and take another game. But among the home games, only USF which lost a lot of minutes and scoring from 2010, appears to be vulnerable, so the fourth win will have to come versus an opponent against whom Rutgers cannot expect to be favored (at least not at this point). Welcome to the Big East Coach Rice.