Big East Previews -- Links & Thoughts

Links...
Pico Dulce over at the east coast bias blog conducted his second roundtable of the 2011 season, graciously allowing all of the participating bloggers (there were about 19 of us, at least one from every Big East team...) to repudiate our earlier projections and rewrite history based on the OOC results so far. Pico asked about each blogger's team, the surprise team(s) so far, the disappointing team(s) through this point in the OOC and which players were exceeding expectations and which were not and how the order of finish in conference play. He was kind enough to compile the results and organize a series of posts...
Part 1 -- Team Expectations
Part 2 -- Surprise Team
Part 3 -- Most Disappointing Team
Part 4 -- Players Who Surprise; Players Who Disappoint
Part 5 -- A Revised(?) Order of Finish
The answers were very interesting and worth the time it takes to read through.


Brian Lerner over at the Hoya Prospectus blog published an offense/defense aerial of the conference on the eve of conference play along with a few observations on the comparative efficiencies so far. In addition Brian, in an effort to assess the home/away schedules through the front end of conference play, compiled a rough estimate of strength of schedule. Brian's Big East Preview is a must-read for those who want some context for the first month of play.

Luke Winn of Sports Illustrated reworked his annual "Warning List of Pretenders and Contenders". A compilation not limited to Big East teams, but Winn's premise and conclusions are always a conversation starter, especially when the team you love is identified as a pretender, a sentiment many in the Nova Nation remember from last season. Winn added an Andy Glockner-inspired metric, the Adjusted Scoring Margin, (a variant on John Gasaway's efficiency differential, except that Glockner then ranks the teams to identify the elite scoring margins, etc.) Big East teams mentioned in Winn's article include Connecticut (bad news), Notre Dame (maybe bad news), West Virginia (historical reference), Syracuse (good news) and Louisville (a sleeper). The good news for Villanova's faithful I guess is that no news is good news.


...and Thoughts
ECB Expectations -- The Pitt-UConn game last night (Monday) did not refute the Huskies' progress this season, but it does point to the weakness Luke Winn identified -- if UConn's offense is not on, their defense will probably not keep them in many games this season, and that is a departure from the best of the Connecticut teams. If ESPN's announcing crew dwelt long on Walker's scoring capabilities, they were slow to recognize and analyze UConn's lack of ball and shot distribution, especially at the end of the game, when an option #2 would have been greatly appreciated. I have Connecticut finishing somewhere between #9 and #12 in conference play. While UConn's 8-0 start, with wins over Michigan State and Kentucky are impressive and a #9-#12 finish strong hints at a losing record, I still believe this team's ceiling is about 0.500, which is pretty much where Pomeroy has them now. Winn summed up Notre Dame nicely too. If the Irish can put some defense on the floor they will be very good. The question has always been how much defense they will play.

ECB Surprise Players -- Given Cincinnati's success in the OOC, tabbing Cashmire Wright is no coincidence. The Bearcats have been in dire need of a distributing point guard, imagine had Wright been given the room/incentive to blossom last season. I am surprised Darius Odom-Johnson is struggling. While he appears to have his 2 point shot, his three point conversion is down, as are his assists.

Brian's Aerials -- One encouraging development this season has been Villanova's defensive development. A standard of the teams from 2005 through 2009 (with a few exceptions), the ability to disrupt what the opponent wants to do offensively is an important element if the team is to succeed. Compare Brian's aerials from 2008-09, 2009-10 and this season. This season's defense is farther along than either of the prior seasons. This is a promising development.

Signs of the 2010 Off Season #1 -- Where in the World is...

Ogo Adegboye? -- St. Bonaventure's returning point guard was named to Great Britain's National Team in June and play in the Eurobasket Tournament that begins August 8. Adegboye will return to the Bonnies in September and resume his studies in the fall semester.

Lavoy Allen? -- Temple's rising senior forward is in Las Vegas, invited to join the USA Select Team that will help prepare the USA National Team for the World Basketball Festival, a four-day series of exhibitions, August 12-15, in New York City. The National Team will also play a series of exhibitions the following week -- two games in Spain (August 21 & 22) followed by a third game, versus Greece, in Athens, Greece, on August 25. The USA National Team is scheduled to compete with 23 other teams, in the FIBA World Championship for Men, to be held Aug. 28-Sept. 12 in Ankara, Istanbul, Izmir and Kayseri, Turkey.

Eric Devendorf? -- The former Syracuse wing spent his first year as a professional in New Zealand where he helped his Wellington Saints team win the NZBL Championship on July 1. Devo then signed with the Melbourne Tigers of Australia Basketball. The Tigers are taking a preseason tour through Europe and China before starting their season in October. One of their European stops will be Ireland where they are scheduled to play the Pittsburgh Panthers on Friday August 6. Some things never change.

Pico Dulce? -- The Blogger-in-chief for The East Coast Bias and columnist for The Johnny Jungle's "Calm Before the Storm" series is in Chicago, putting together off season roundtables about the Big East -- check out Roundtable #2, Part 1 here. Parts #2 and #3 to follow. Pico also penned an excellent possession-based comparison of Steve Lavin's UCLA teams with those of Norm Roberts' St. John's teams. One of the better reads this summer, required reading for those who are wondering where Lavin will take the Johnnies next season.

Jason Donnelly? -- The Villanova assistant coach has been on the recruiting trail this month. That trail led through Morgantown, WV last weekend, where West Virginia University hosted the West Virginia Jam Fest where he caught a game or two of 2012 prospect Ricardo Ledo and 2011 prospect Alex Murphy (son of Boston College player Jay Murphy).

Ray Floriani? -- The veteran basketball writer and statistician is logging another summer in the Hamilton Park summer league, refereeing games in Jersey City, New Jersey, and filing reports with the folks at Hoopville and College Chalktalk.

Markus Kennedy? -- Good question actually. The Villanova commit has decided to do a prep year, the question is...where? A return to Winchendon Prep is out of the question, which leaves one of the two remaining candidates, Brewster Academy (NH) and NIA Prep (NJ) as the most likely destination. Given that AAU teammate Naadir Tharpe is Brewster's pg, the New Hampshire Academy may have the inside track.

Kevin McKenna? -- The three year head coach at Indiana State resigned June 14 to take an Assistant Coaching job on (newly hired) Dana Altman's staff at Oregon. McKenna becomes the fourth "below the Red-Line" head coach to take an "above the Red-Line" assistant coaching job this off season.

DJ Newbill? -- The Philadelphia guard (Strawberry Mansion) was set to enter Marquette in Milwaukee, Wisconsin in September, but the Big East school abruptly withdrew it's scholarship offer to make room for Jamil Wilson, a rising sophomore sf and Wisconsin native, who transferred out of Oregon at the end of the 2010 season. Newbill is headed to Hattisburg, Mississippi, wher he will enroll in Southern Mississippi and play the point for Larry Eustachy's Golden Eagles. Despite the uncertainty (and change of venue) Newbill will be a Golden Eagle next season after all.

Reggie Redding? -- Villanova's all-purpose wing/forward went undrafted after a number of tryouts, including one with the Philadelphia 76ers. The Villanova graduate celebrated his 22^nd birthday (July 18), by signing to play for Intercollege Etha Engomis in the Cyprus A Division, and will head over to Cyprus to play for them next season. Congratulations Reggie and Happy Birthday.

Scottie Reynolds? -- Villanova's #2 All-Time Scorer went undrafted in June, but has been in Las Vegas playing NBA Summer League games for the Phoenix Sun's team. The guard may well sign with that NBA club, according to Arn Tellum, his agent. Scottie was ranked #8, with 4.7 assists per game in Summer League action.

Pitt Panthers? -- The Big East team hit the gym this week, running a series of supervised practices in preparation for their summer tour of Ireland, July 29 through August 9.

Maalik Wayns? -- Villanova's rising sophomore guard is staying in Philadelphia working out on campus (taking summer classes?) and playing summer ball with teammates Dominic Cheek, Maurice Sutton, Antonio Pena, Isiaih Armwood, Corey Stokes, Mouphtao Yarou and the Wildcats' newest walk-on player, Dallas Ouano, in the Hank Gathers Division of the Sonny Hill League. The games, normally played in Temple University's venerable McGonigal Hall, have been moved to Charles Audenreid High School, 32^nd and Tasker Streets in Philadelphia. Rumors have Cheek, Wayns and Yarou scoring a lot of points in their games so far.

Chris Wright? -- The rising senior forward joined A10 conference mate Lavoy Allen, Las Vegas. Wright was also invited to join the USA Select Team and help prepare Team USA for the FIBA World Championships to be held later this summer.

Jay Wright? -- Villanova's head coach is in Las Vegas working as a Co-head Coach of the USA Select Team, along with Washington's Lorenzo Romer. The USA Select Team, co-coached by Wright and Romer will help prepare the USA National Team for the FIBA World Championship. Five Big Ten players were invited to join the team, the largest number of any D1 conference. Two players, Scoop Jardine and Kemba Walker will represent the Big East.

Joseph Young? -- Providence's incoming freshman guard says he does not want to go to Providence after all. Citing an ill aunt, Young's father has requested a release from his son's NLI, which to this point, Coach Davis has refused. Unlike the much publicized Walter Pitchford-DePaul standoff (which was resolved late last week when DePaul formally released Pitchford), which was triggered when DePaul fired Jerry Wainwright, the coach Pitchford had signed on to play for, the coaching change that may be the motivator for Young's request occured at the University of Houston, where the elder Young was rehired by the Cougars' new head coach, James Dickey. If Young (the younger) does indeed ignore the NLI and go to Houston, he will have to pay his own way and sit the first year and lose a year of eligibility.

Guest Contributor Pico Dulce: Preview of Villanova at St. John's

Villanova travels to Madison Square Garden on Saturday to play the St. John's Red Storm. Pico Dulce of the east coast bias and Johnny Jungle Blogs shares his thoughts about the St. John's Red Storm and what the Wildcats can expect when they tip off at noon.

Things you should know about St. John’s:

The fans have found the team frustrating in Big East play. Personally, I believe people’s expectations were pretty high for a team that won 6 conference games (and a Big East tournament game) last year, beating the lame, the weak, and Notre Dame and Georgetown, who played like a little bit of both. St. John’s scored about .11 points per possession less than their opponents last year, and returned the same core. Familiarity breeds greater efficiency in college ball, but that’s a huge gap to make up – even if the name stars left the league. So far this year, the team is .5 points per possession below their opponents.

Something I strongly believe: this team is improved. “Improve” is a far cry from “contend”, and the fans are upset about not contending. Rightfully so; 6 years, with any extra leniency for the moral high ground and better relationships with AAU players, is a long time for fans to watch a team struggle to get near .500 on the season. And coming off another loss where the Red Storm seemed to have a chance, and once again lose it in a flurry of poor play, defensive breakdowns, and the usual scoring drought… things aren’t going well.

St. John’s has a lot of depth – and now Anthony Mason Jr. is back. So 10 guys will see court time in most games. The team’s point guards are not scorers; the points come generally from a plethora of wing players. Style-wise, you’ll see a lot of ball screens with the occasional off-ball screen for a shooter; St. John’s doesn’t pick and roll much, the screens are intended to give the ballhandler a clearer look at the basket. Defensively, there will be some token pressure and the occasional zone look, but the team is best – and usually – in the halfcourt man with bigs coming out to bother opposing ballhandlers.

The closest thing to an alpha dog player for St. John’s is DJ Kennedy, who will go to the basket in crucial midgame situations; his jump shot is vastly improved, his drives are crafty, and his rebounding is solid. At the end of games, Dwight Hardy has been the guy; he can drive and shoot the 3-pointer. Against smaller teams, Justin Brownlee and Sean Evans are solid rebounders and can score off the dribble… or make mistakes off the dribble. Paris Horne is a scoring threat from the outside; when he drives to the hoop he never seems to get the call. Justin Burrell has been more aggressive in looking for his shot. Anthony Mason Jr. hasn’t been crisp with the jump shot yet, but contributes with rebounding and length on defense.

Speaking of defense, Dele Coker has made some strides this year in playing without fouling, rebounding better (I am surprised he wasn’t credited with any boards against U Conn, he was positioned well on the glass and boxed out) and swatting shots. Burrell and Justin Brownlee can block some shots as well. Paris Horne is considered the team’s tough perimeter defender, but DJ Kennedy can defend well.

Thanking Pico for his thoughts, I want to add that I will be at the Garden, hosting a live blog for the folks at Rush the Court. After you open the game thread on your favorite message board, open a second tab, come over to Rush the Court and contribute to the commentary and dialog live from the game.