On Second Thought -- Plotting Trendlines for Big East Teams (pt 2)

Through the Middle Section of the Conference
While there is something appealing about taking the conference by quartiles -- Big East observers have only another year or two for that approach -- I decided to look at the teams in three parts, taking about five teams with each look. The decision was not random, as the trendlines for teams grouped in this way, highlights a number of common elements...similar records & progressions. As in "Second Thoughts: Part 1" I have highlighted those (six this time...) teams discussed in this post in the year-end conference standings:

	W	L	Pct.
Pittsburgh	15	3	0.833
Notre Dame	14	4	0.776
Syracuse	12	6	0.667
Louisville	12	6	0.667
St. John's	12	6	0.667
Cincinnati	11	7	0.611
West Virginia	11	7	0.611
Georgetown	10	8	0.556
Connecticut	9	9	0.500
Villanova	9	9	0.500
Marquette	9	9	0.500
Seton Hall	7	11	0.389
Rutgers	5	13	0.278
Providence	4	14	0.222
South Florida	3	15	0.167
Cincinnati	1	17	0.056

(T6 #6) Cincinnati

Multiple intersecting trendlines suggest...

Third order polynomial trendlines tend to resist wild gyrations, which makes them a good tool for identifying "long term" trends. Cincinnati's season, per the trendline, suggests a mild slump around games 5 through 12, and indeed the Bearcats' record through that seven game stretch was 3-4 (they finished 11-7 and secured the #6 seed in the BET). Coach Mick Cronin, possibly the conference's strongest hot seat candidate going into the season, secured his tenure (at least in the near term) with a team performance that exceeded preseason expectations. An especially strong 5-1 finish of the conference regular season featured wins over Louisville, Marquette and twice over Georgetown, NCAA invitees all. The lone loss through that run was Connecticut, the team which also eliminated Cincinnati in the second round of the NCAA Tournament (and went on to win the National Championship).

(T9 #9) Connecticut

Ahhh, A double helix, perhaps?

The Huskies offer one of the more interesting trendlines from the conference season. Like many teams that finished in this middle third of the conference. Connecticut's trendlines suggest a team that was "evolving" as the season progressed. What sets Connecticut's trendlines apart from the usual in season slump is the suggestion the source of the "pause" was defense. Note the adjusted offensive trendline shows no signs of regressing through the season. The Huskies were one of two squads whose offense (adjusted for the competition) appeared to improve (no regression) over the course of the season.

(8 #8) Georgetown

A curved double intersection like Cincinnati's, but...

The adjusted chart suggests Coach John Thompson's squad peaked around the time of the Villanova game (game 9 on the chart), and then declined through the end of the season. The Hoyas finishd the 2011 season on a four game losing streak that began with the last two games of the conference season and continued through the Wednesday round in the Big East Tournament, culminating with their second consecutive first round of the NCAA Tournament. Junior guard Chris Wright missed three of the games through that stretch, but the chart suggests the offense was in full decline well before Wright missed games. Note the second intersection in the chart, around game 14, was an eight point loss (70-78) to Connecticut. The Huskies also eliminated the Hoyas in New York City exactly three weeks later.

(T9 #11) Marquette

Slump & recovery...

The adjusted chart suggests a decline/slump through much of the season, as Coach Buzz Williams' program bottomed out around the Georgetown game (game #12), then began a slow rebound through the end of the regular season. The Golden Eagles did finish the regular season on a two game losing streak, one that may well have put their NCAA bid on a bubble going into New York City. Marquette rebounded nicely however, running to the Sweet Sixteen where they fell, 81-63, to North Carolina.

(T9 #10) Villanova

The season-long slump?

The season-long decline of the Wildcats' offensive efficiency is clearer in the adjusted efficiency chart. Many of my post game analysis pointed to defensive lapses (also indicated in the trendlines), but the chart hints strongly the offensive decline was persistent and steady throughout the conference season. Stepping back a bit, the decline, from just under 120 (118?) down to about 101, was dramatic for an 18 game stretch. Unlike other teams in this group, there was no rebound...

(T6 #7) West Virginia

No double intersection here either

The trendlines suggest that West Virginia's offensive slump was well timed. The Mountaineers' record from games three through nine was 6-1, with an eye popping 89.9 adjusted defensive efficiency that masked a 10% decline in offensive efficiency during that time period. Coach Bob Huggins' squad finished the conference regular season with an 11-7 conference record (tied for #6 with Cincinnati, earning the 'Eers a #7 seed for the Big East Tournament). West Virginia earned a #5 seed to the NCAA Tournament and lost in the second round to Final Four-bound Kentucky.

Performance Versus Expectation -- Big East Coaches in the NCAA Tournament

Evaluating Post Season Performance...
Neil Paine over at Sports Reference/College Basketball triggered a spirited discussion earlier this week when he (a little frustrated with early exits by Pittsburgh & Texas) posted examination of the underperforming and overachieving coaches from the "64 Team Era" (1985 and forward). His first look considered the expectation of winning in the team's (and coach's) last game of each tournament in which they played, a method that used the difference in seed to determine the probability for a win. His second method, using Peter Tiernan's Performance Against Seed Expectation (PASE) is a method I have used in the last few tournaments to measure conference performances (see Dan Hanner's Day 2 piece over at RealGM.com for progress this season...not good for the Big East, someone -- or two -- will have to make a deep run to bring the conference in line with expectations). While Paine's "Best" and "Worst" lists were interesting (two former Villanova coaches make the lists...one in the Best and the other in the Worst...I leave it to the reader to speculate, or link and remove all doubt), I wanted to know how the current group of coaches were doing...

		NCAA Record
Team	Coach	App	W	L	Pct.	PASE	Diff.
Connecticut	Jim Calhoun	17	45	14	0.759	38.5	6.5
Syracuse	Jim Boeheim	22	40	21	0.656	37.0	3.0
Villanova	Jay Wright	7	12	7	0.632	10.6	1.4
West Virginia	Bob Huggins	4	7	4	0.636	5.7	1.3
Louisville/PC	Rick Pitino	6	11	6	0.647	9.8	1.3
Marquette	Buzz Williams	3	3	2	0.600	2.9	0.1
Cincinnati	Mick Cronin	1	1	1	0.500	1.2	-0.2
St. John's	Steve Lavin	1	0	1	0.000	1.2	-1.2
Georgetown	John Thompson III	5	7	5	0.583	8.8	-1.7
Notre Dame	Mike Brey	7	5	7	0.417	7.3	-2.3
Pittsburgh	Jamie Dixon	11	8	8	0.579	15.6	-4.6

I decided to apply PASE data to the NCAA record each coach compiled -- while heading Big East programs -- to see how they ranked. I sorted by most successsful to least successful. Both Jim Calhoun and Buzz Williams are highlighted in green because the record book for 2011 is, at this writing, still subject to revision (Calhoun's latest win, a 74-67 win over San Diego State is noted here). Results of games will not, however, diminish their standings versus their Big East brethren. Note that Rick Pitino has NCAA games while at Providence in addition to his run at Louisville. I counted both as part of his total (but not those NCAA tournaments he participated in as Coach of Boston University, Kentucky and pre-Big East Louisville -- I applied the same to Bob Huggins -- his Cincinnati record was not considered here.). Lack of tournament appearances while helming a Big East program explains why Stan Heath (South Florida), Oliver Purnell (DePaul) and Mike Rice (Rutgers) are not listed, though all have appearances with previous programs.

Performances, Good & Bad
That the Deans of the Conference Jim Calhoun and Jim Boeheim top the list should be no surprise. Each has had a long and successful run at their respective schools (Connecticut and Syracuse respectively). Boeheim's total does not, by the way, include his NCAA record pre-1985, probably a good thing for the record shown here. The Orange mentor's net wins versus PASE yo-yo'd around zero from 1985 to 1990, when it plunged into the negatives through 1995. Like Dixon, Boeheim's teams logged strong conference records during that period, keeping the wolves at bay. With his adoption of the 2-3 zone (and continued strong recruiting) his net versus PASE, revived reaching a peak +7.7 in 2004, the tournament after Carmelo Anthony and his only National Championship. Thanks no doubt to the Devendorf and Harris years among others, his net has again dipped as his team underperformed in four of the last five NCAA tournaments in which they participated. Jamie Dixon comes out at the bottom of this list, a paradox given the Panthers' undeniable success during the regular season and in the Big East Tournament. The Pitt fan-base excoriated him over their latest tournament loss, but a more level-headed Athletic Administration has to know he is a tremendous leader for the program and will get to the Final Four sooner or later. Dixon has made the tournament each of his eight seasons at Pitt, but it seems drawing the "inside seeds" (#2, #3, etc.) are killing him. Notre Dame's Mike Brey also under performs, but unlike Dixon, his teams have also performed inconsistently during conference play. Brey's Big East record is better than his overall. Like several other coaches (Jay Wright, Jim Calhoun & John Thompson for example), Brey coached at Delaware in a non-BCS conference, before moving over to Notre Dame, and has a few 0'fer tournament appearances on his resume. Those low seed "almost" games against high-seeded (BCS conference?) opponents probably caught Notre Dame's eye, but close doesn't count on the record book. Those wondering what happened to John Thompson III's Georgetown program should note that since the Hoya's Final Four run in 2007, they have missed the tournament completely one post season (2009), and have notched net negative appearances in the three tournaments they have appeared in. First round losses in 2010 & 2011 in particular are brutal for the program. Leaving out their CUSA records, both Rick Pitino and Bob Huggins have posted positive nets so far. Pitino however, benefits from his previous stint at Providence College. His 1987 run to the Final Four as a #6 seed started him out on his run at Louisville (in the Big East) with a +2.8 net. His first three NCAA appearances with Louisville as a CUSA entrant produced a +1.4 net, solely on the Cardinals' run to the Final Four in 2005 as a #4 seed. Louisville fans who have become nervous with Pitino's results lately have a quantitative value on which to hang their hats -- a -1.5 net versus PASE since Louisville joined the Big East.

What About Coach Wright?
Villanova's coach, like Thompson, benefits from not adding his -0.423 to his Big East record. The Wildcats struggled to make the Dance under Coach Wright, but once they broke through, in 2005, they have compiled an impressive seven consecutive trips since. Like Thompson, Coach Wright's last two appearances have put a drag on his wins versus PASE net, accounting for a net -2.02 in those two appearances.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: A Quick Recap of West Virginia & Kentucky

by Ray Floriani

LYNDHURST, NJ - Kentucky is 'Brick City' bound. The Wildcats punched their ticket to the Newark Regional with a hard fought 71-63 victory over West Virginia on Saturday. The numbers:

		Off.
Team	Poss.	Off.
West Virginia	63	100
Kentucky	62	116

* Post game, Mountaineer coach Bob Huggins felt the difference was shooting from the floor. Kentucky did have a 54-48% advantage in the eFG percentage. But the big difference was the play of Brandon Knight. The Wildcat freshman, with the game winner against Princeton on Thursday, came up big with 30 points. Knight was 9 of 10 from the line and helped John Calipari's club ice the game down the stretch.

Knight scored two and had a -1 Manley rating against Princeton. Today he had the complete effort with the aforementioned 30 points and a 21 Manley efficiency rating. It very much needed.

West Virginia Post Game: Scoring Droughts

Shot Defense?
West Virginia was up 10-6 when guard Darryl "Truck" Bryant picked up his second foul at the 13:30 mark of the first half. The guard, having missed a three point attempt on West Virginia's previous possession went straight at the bucket with the idea of making it 12-6 West Virginia, ran over Corey Fisher and picked up the charge. Coach Bob Huggins sat him, and Villanova West Virginia, two minutes into a shooting drought that lasted seven more minutes, missed another 12 field goal attempts over their next 11 possessions while Villanova launched a 14-2 run to overtake the Mountaineers and build a six point lead with nearly six minutes left in the half. The Wildcats closed out the half with another 12-7 run, taking a 30-19 lead into the locker room. Villanova defense or West Virginia offense? "Look, they (Villanova) are a Top 20 team, maybe a Top 5 team" responded Coach Huggins "...but we have to make shots...Jones made some shots...Bryant made some shots...but we need others to make shots". And the Moutaineers had a second dry run through nearly eight minutes of the second half. Having nibbled two points off of Villanova's lead (47-40) and with just over 11 minutes left in the game, West Virgninia went 1-11 and 1-4 from the line over an eight minut stretch as Villanova blew the game open with a 17-3 run that made the score 64-43 with just over three minutes left.

The Villanova blogosphere has several post game contributions. VUHoops.com posted their usual recap with player/team grades. The Nova Blog also posted a recap that echoed Coach Wright's sentiments about Villanova's back court ("I would not trade them for anyone"). The Moutaineer blogosphere is quiet tonight, Smoking Musket Blog posted an open thread for the game, but no recap yet. The Athletic Department website posted the official boxscore and the AP wire story, "No. 12 Villanova Tops No. 25 West Virginia, 66-50". The breakdown by halves...

Opponent:		West Virginia University
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	25.6	25.3	50.9
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	117.1	142.3	129.6		74.2	122.5	98.2
eFG%	48.1	80.0	62.0		30.0	53.6	42.5
TORate	19.5	11.9	15.7		19.5	15.8	17.7
OR%	53.3	33.3	45.8		35.0	45.0	40.0
FTA/FGA	23.1	45.0	32.6		20.0	25.0	22.6
FTM/FGA	19.2	20.0	19.6		16.0	3.6	9.4
ARate	27.3	64.3	48.0		83.3	76.9	78.9
Blk%	15.4	0.0	8.7		0.0	3.6	1.9
Stl%	3.9	4.1	4.0		11.8	11.4	11.6
PPWS	1.04	1.48	1.24		0.69	0.99	0.85
2FG%	42.1	76.9	56.3		18.8	56.3	37.5
3FG%	42.9	57.1	50.0		33.3	33.3	33.3
FT%	83.3	44.4	60.0		80.0	14.3	41.7
%2FG	53.3	55.6	54.5		31.6	58.1	48.0
%3FG	30.0	33.3	31.8		47.4	38.7	42.0
%FT	16.7	11.1	13.6		21.1	3.2	10.0

Green and red are used again here to highlight elements that were above or below season-long performance levels. While it seems the team stopped defending in the second half, remember each was dealing with half-time adjustments. Villanova may appear to have called off the dogs in the second half, but remember they had a nine point leading going into the intermission, and had an outstanding offensive half, which mitigated their own lapses. This game is more evidence that the "Shoot 'em up" game strategy is giving way to a more traditional motion offense promoted by Coach Wright when he first took the reins at Villanova. At 50/51 possessions, this is the lowest possession game played by Villanova this season. Recaps in the ink and electronic media may touch on West Virginia's lowest point total of the season, but consider the Mountaineers had 50/51 possessions with which to work. WVU produced an offensive efficiency similar to their outing against Duquesne and better then their (point per possession) yield versus Seton Hall, South Florida and Louisville -- they are 3-1 in the four games cited -- their failing was defense. They simply could not contain/control Corey Fisher, Maalik Wayns, Antonio Pena and Mouphtaou Yaour. Continuing with a theme raised in the past few post game pieces, this marks the sixth of the last seven games in which the team has played for fewer than projected (per Ken Pomeroy -- see "Schedule" section on the Team Page) possessions. The deviation, (-14 or a whopping 12% below projected) is far larger than previous differences. As mentioned in the Marquette post game analysis, when we couple more minutes for Mouphtaou Yarou & his pairing with Antonio Pena and the additional time for Isaiah Armwood, with a more deliberate pace and we are watching this team transition to a more deliberate, half-court friendly style of play. The Pittsburgh game may make paint drying seem like a speed sport.

Random Notes/Thoughts
1. The Wildcats used eight players, seven of whom received 10 or more minutes of playing time. The PT differential ranged from 36 (Antonio Pena -- not the first time the senior forward pulled down the most minutes) down to 19 (Dom Cheek who grabbed a team-high nine rebounds) was closer than the Marquette game. Four players Pena, Yarou, Stokes and Fisher logged 30 or more minutes, more evidence the staff is moving towards a "tournament/post season" mode of player rotation.

2. Maalik Wayns came off the bench for the second consecutive game. He was asked directly in the post game press conference about his feelings on the move, and the sophmore seemed to take the move in stride and look at the advantages. The Armwood-for-Wayns switch gives the starting five a very traditional, two guard, two forward and one center, look and feel.
3. Lost in the 16 point win is the lack of point production from the line. Gathering a total of nine points from free throws would normally set off alarm bells. The point distribution (see above -- 54.5%, 34.8% and 13.6% for two point, three point and free throw is dispropotionately high for threes and low for free throws. Consider however, that the Wildcats were 7-14 from beyond the arc, an unusually proficient 50%, even as they were 9-15 (60%) from the charity stripe. The total number of free throws was lower than average, but the 'Cats also missed many more chances than usual.

Records, Next Up...
Villanova's records stand at 19-4 overall and 7-3 in conference. The Wildcats lost no more ground to Pitt, and maintained pace with Notre Dame & Louisville (they have a tie breaker advantage over Louisville). West Virginia drops to 15-7 overall, 6-4 in conference play, and into a tie for seventh place with Connecticut. Villanova takes a mid-week run out to New Jersey to play Rutgers, before returning to campus to play Pittsburgh in an ESPN-driven GameDay at the Pavilion. West Virginia has a rendevouz of their own with Pitt, on one day's rest, at the Coliseum next Monday, then a second home date next Saturday with DePaul (2/13).

Preview -- West Virginia

Off Script...
#8 Villanova hosts West Virginia University Saturday at noon in a game that will decide who keeps pace with Pittsburgh (at the top of the Big East standings) and Notre Dame, currently the sole #2 in the conference. Both teams have taken circuitous routes to this place. The Wildcats thought they would go nine (at least) deep with their blue ribbon sophomore class progressing nicely, but pushed by their two freshmen recruits, James Bell and JayVaughn Pinkston. Bell, feared at one point to lose the season, has rehabbed and gets a few minutes each game. Pinkston, out on discipline issues, should rejoin the team next season. The Sophomore Progress Report is mixed, with the jury still out on several well regarded players. For West Virginia, the major action has been off the court. ...

Common Opponents...
...Conference opponents only for common foes, as the two teams run in different D1 "circles". Villanova fills a large part of it's OOC dance card with Philadelphia teams (the Big 5), while West Virginia has similar local rivals centered in the greater Pittsburgh metro area (Robert Morris, Duquesne). Of their conference opponents, good luck trying to decypher what has gone on before. +30 versus Providence? -15 on the road?! That both teams sport a 4-2 record against that common slate is strange indeed. The absence of a discernable treand confirms what those who have watched the games this season suspect -- the Big East, as has most of the power conferences this year, is having a chaotic, wide open race for most of the conference tournament seeds so far...

	Nova		WVU
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
South Florida	W (A)	+12	W (H)	+10
Georgetown	L (H)	-3	W (A)	+6
Providence	L (A)	-15	W (H)	+30
Louisville	W (H)	+14	L (A)	-1
Cincinnati	W (H)	+11	W (A)	+11
Marquette	W (H)	+5	L (A)	-5

West Virginia's best OOC win was a three point victory over Vanderbilt (SEC, 15-6, 3-4, RPI #24), a win that looks better to the RPI than Ken Pomeroy. Pomeroy values the 'Eers win over Duquesne (A-10, 15-5, 8-0 #28 Kenpom) a bit more. Best conference wins include the 65-59 road win at Georgetown (17-5, 6-4, RPI #5) and at home versus Cincinnati (16-3, 3-3, RPI #35), a convincing 15 point win. Their single loss, a 12 point loss at Pittsburgh earlier this week, did little to diminish their tournament resume.

Villanova's marquee out of conference win is still the Temple University (A-10, 16-5, 6-2, RPI #35) game, a four point decision, in December. The Wildcats' best win overall was their 11 point road victory over Syracuse (17-4, 6-4, RPI #16) in conference play last month. Villanova's worst loss, a 15 point spanking at the hands of Providence (BE 14-9, 3-7, RPI #99) also last month. Other losses in conference play include a two point loss to UConn in Storrs and a three point home loss to Georgetown last weekend...

Lineups, Rotations...
...The team that takes the court Saturday is surely not the one envisioned by Coach Bob Huggins in the weeks before Fall Practice. David Nyarsuk and Noah Cottrill are no longer in the program, though Nyarsuk may be in Morgantown next season. Of the two Cottrill was more likely to have an impact this season, but, recently suspended (for the second time since last September) guard Casey Mitchell aside, Coach Huggins has a pool of seven players among whom he typically allocates starts and playing time. Should Mitchell's second indefinite suspension this season be lifted by game time, the senior 6-4, 220 pound guard will probably start alongside junior Darryl Bryant (6-2, 195 pounds), a back court pairing the WVU staff has used in nearly 17 of the Mountaineers' 22 games this season. Red shirt senior Joe Mazzulla (6-2, 200 pounds) will come off the bench to sub in at the point when either Bryant or Mitchell sits. Sophomore wing Dalton Pepper (6-5, 230 pounds) will see minutes, most likely more than 10, at various points in the game. The wing has seen his minutes decline slightly since the start of conference play, but this is a home-coming game of sorts for the Pennsbury graduate. Look for the staff to tab senior 6-7 215 pound forward John Flowers and 6-8, 260 pound junior forward Kevin Jones to start in two of the three forward spots. The fifth starter will go to the player with who best fits the game plan and has probably practiced/played well lately. Senior forward Cam Thoroughman, one more of a seemingly endless supply of 6-7 forwards (Coach Huggins loves 'tweeners) has gotten the nod lately, but the staff has also tabbed (the recently departed) Dan Jennings and (6-9, 270 pound) sophomore Deniz Klicli for starts in the last six games. The spot does not appear to be nailed down yet. If Coach Huggins goes deeper than eight, expect to see Jonnie West (fifth year senior) first.

Coach Wright juggled the lineup for the Wildcats' home game with Marquette. Adjusting the starting line-up he had used in Villanova's first 21 games, the Coach decided to continute starting the three seniors, Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes and Antonio Pena, but pair Fisher and Stokes in the back court even as he left Pena at the #4. Coach Wright tabbed the fourth "regular" starter, sophmore center Mouphtaou Yarou for the #5, but decided to start sophomore Isaiah Armwood at the #3 and bring sophomore point guard Maalik Wayns off the bench early. While the change up may well have been to confound Marquette specificially with a match-up problem, having two 6-0 guards side-by-side can be problematic on defense, espeically one that relies so heavily on man defense with switching principles. The bench was short for the Warriors, limited largely to Wayns and spot appearances by freshman James Bell, and sophomores Dom Cheek & Maurice Sutton. The Marquette game marked a departure in the usual Villanova rotation, those three typically see playing times range between 10 and 20 minutes.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
Expect a modest clash of pace, as Villanova looks for a possession or so more than the Division 1 average (67.5) while West Virginia typically plays for three or so possessions less than the D1 average. Pomeroy projections suggest the two teams will settle for something in between (about 65 possessions), but in five of Villanova's last six games the 'Cats have had fewer than the projected possessions. This one might yield a game barely in the 60s, which would spell trouble for Villanova, as it would suggest the 'Cats are getting few points in transition. A "Four Factors" comparison when West Virginia has the ball...

When the Mountaineers have the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
'Eer O	49.1	19.3	41.4	41.3
Wildcat D	44.7	19.1	28.0	33.9

The Mountaineer offense is ranked #24 according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report, one of the near elites in Division 1. Coach Huggins' squad rebounds their misses among the very best in D1. Coach Huggins' offensive strategy is fairly straightforward, toss the ball at the basket and then rely on those athletic forwards to get the rebound and score on putback opportunities. They get to the line well, (41.3% of their FGAs, ranked #98 in D1), which suggests those rebounding battles can get physical. Perimeter defense has been a source of handwringing for the Nova Nation, but they will most likely not have to worry Saturday, West Virginia three point shooting falls in the bottom quarter of three point shooting, though frankly their two point attempt conversions are among the top third of Division 1. They are among the elites at covering the offensive boards, thereby giving themselves second chance opportunities. This mtachup is crucial for Villanova, as the Wildcats are among the elites for defensive rebounding. In two losses of their four losses, the Wildcats were unable to control the defensive boards, allowing their opponents to gather >35% of their misses. This should be a good benchmark for the Villanova front court and staff game planning. Holding West Virginia to the D1 average would be a huge boost, but that struggle beneath the boards could well test the Wildcats' depth at the forward spots. While West Virginia is good at getting to the line, they are an average team at converting those opportunities. Villanova has become particulary good at defending the shot, their eFG% defense is ranked #26 in D1. If Villanova starts Armwood but struggles to contain West Virginia's offensive rebounding in the first half, look for the type of half-time adjustment that might call for more bodies to crash the boards. That would however, diminish fast break opportunities. With poor three point shooting, Villanova's staff may feel that having both Wayns and Fisher together in the back court may be less risky than having both in against Marquette (a much stronger three point shooting squad). The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus West Virginia's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	49.9	17.7	36.1	44.1
'Eer D	44.0	20.2	35.6	34.8

The Eer's adjusted defense is 89.8, ranked #18, among the elites for Division 1. They are very strong shot defenders (excellent at defending the three and above average defending the two), but are only "above average" (ranked in the upper 1/3 of D1) at keeping their opponents off the line and merely average at forcing turnovers. The Mountaineers are not good defensive rebounders, a weakness which contrasts sharply with a Villanova offensive strength. Though the difference in rebounding rates is relatively small (about 0.5), it suggests Villanova should have a good day rebounding their misses. And that would be very good given the Mountaineers' outstanding shot defense. Another key indicator for West Virginia's defense however is fouling -- they don't. For Villanova, used to netting 25% or more of their points at the line may well have to find another source for posting points, assuming they cannot coax more fouls out of Coach Huggins' squad.

Want to Beat West Virginia? Then...
Shooting is always critical, make them miss and convert your own, but...
1. Couple their misses with poor(er) rebounding. West Virginia can survive a shooting day (eFG%) in the 40s if they rebound their misses strongly, but they cannot survive a shooting day in the 30s, irrespective of their rebounding. West Virginia is 1-2 when shooting in their eFG% is <40%. The only time they won (South Florida), their opponent shot even worse than they did. If the Moutaineers are shooting in the 40s, then limit their offensive boards to the Division 1 average (about 33%). In games where they shot in the 40s and rebounded in the 30s they went 1-1.
2. Convert your shots. Sounds easy, no? Make them miss and hit your own. Like their offense, combine shooting (eFG%) and offensive rebounding. In games where their opponents converted at 50% or higher (eFG%), WVU is 2-3. In games where opponents convert at 40% (but less than 50%) and rebound at Villanova's average or better, the 'Eers are 1-2.
3. Get to the line. In games where WVU's opponents have an FT Rate (FTA/FGA) of 36.8 or higher (Villanova's rate is 44.1), they have gone 3-5.

Finally...
...Villanova lost back-to-back games in the Wells Fargo Center as they staggered to the finish last season. The games, played two weeks apart (with a Pavilion game in between) were against Connecticut and West Virginia. Before that, the Wildcats lost to Notre Dame after they lost to Syracuse (with a trip to Pittsburgh in between). Pomeroy is calling this one for the 'Cats, 65 possessions and a four point winning margin, with a 66% degree of certainty.

2010-11 Preview -- West Virginia Mountaineers

Too Busy for the Details?
West Virginia finished the 2010 Big East season strong, running the table at Madison Square Garden and brushing their first three NCAA opponents by nine or better points. Putting down the Kentucky Wildcats, 73-66, in the East Regional the Mountaineers punched their ticket to the second Final Four in the program's history. Their loss to eventual champion Duke in the semi-final was overshadowed by the uncertainty surrounding senior Da'Sean Butler, injured during the game, who appeared prepared to play at the next level once his days in Morgantown were done. Coach Huggins will see his back court return intact and hopefully healthier in 2011 than 2010. Casey Mitchell and Deniz Kilicli should be aclimated to the West Virginia system. Can the Mountaineers make it two consecutive Final Fours? They have a good starting point.  Prognosis -- A 1st quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2011	2010	2009
%Min	55.9	82.9	58.8
%Pts	52.3	66.0	62.2
%FGM	52.5	81.7	60.0
%3FGM	56.8	62.3	64.8
%OReb	51.9	92.3	65.2
%DReb	48.5	87.3	60.0
%TReb	49.8	89.2	61.7

Returning points, considering the losses include four year players Da'Sean Butler and Wellington Smith, along with Devin Ebanks, is surprisingly close to returning minutes. The points can be replaced as there are several Mountaineer bballers ready to step up.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2009-10		2008-09		2007-08
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
BE Off Eff	112.4	2	106.3	8	107.4	4
BE Def Eff	100.3	3	98.1	3	99.6	4
BE Eff Diff	12.1	1	8.2	6	7.8	4
BE Def eFG	48.2	5	47.7	3	50.2	11
BE Def TOv	20.1	5	20.9	3	21.7	3
BE Def OReb	32.9	T4	32.1	5	31.3	5
BE Def FTA/FGA	43.7	14	39.7	13	37.7	8

The defensive numbers have remained fairly "steady" over the past three seasons, though the Mountaineers are becoming (note their FGA/FGA for defense) far more physical defenders than they were under John Beilein. In the transition from John Beilein's finesse-oriented style of offense and defense, the Bob Huggins squads have not developed a "signature" defensive feature. They do not excel at shot defense, nor at rebounding (remarkable considering their offensive rebounding), nor for forcing turnovers. The uptick in allowing opponents to get to the line, taken here as an indication of more physical play, is the only noticeable difference in defensive play over the last three season. If the defense is largely nondescript (physical play excepted), the same cannot be said for the offense...

Care to guess Bob Huggins' first season?

The transition from efficient shot selection to offensive rebounding is remarkable. While the current coach may have carried over much of the Beilein offensive playbook, the shift from working the defense to free a shooter (usually on the perimeter) and snag a high-percentage shot to controlling the boards for the second-chance opportunity is striking. Note that West Virginia hovered on the boundary separating the first and second quartiles (#3 down to #5) while making this offensive transition. Can the Mountaineers improve their Big East standing? The data would suggest they cannot get much better at offensive rebounding. With turnovers and FTA/FGA fluctuating from season-to-season, eFG% (shooting efficiency) would have to improve for West Virginia to maintain their place at the table in the first quartile. In an offense where efficient shot making predominates, turnovers may play a more important role than offensive rebounding.

	For the Record...
	2009-10			2008-09			2007-08
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	31	7	0.816	23	12	0.657	26	11	0.703
Big East	13	5	0.722	10	8	0.556	11	7	0.611
Post Season?	NCAA Rnd #5			NCAA Rnd #1			NCAA Rnd #3

The Mountaineer's Nucleus
When Coach Bob Huggins runs his first practice, he will look on a squad composed nearly entirely of players he (and Assistant Coach Billy Hahn) recruited. Ironically, the squad is not much longer than those assembled by John Beilein, but they faster and more athletic.

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
Kevin Jones	81.2	124.6	18.5	21.5	57.6	12.0	1.18	28.5
Darryl Bryant	55.0	102.7	23.9	21.4	42.4	2.7	1.00	56.0
Joe Mazzulla	38.5	91.5	15.2	10.0	37.5	2.1	0.87	76.2
John Flowers	35.4	102.5	14.6	12.6	48.5	6.1	0.98	50.0
Casey Mitchell	18.5	102.8	24.3	33.3	41.5	5.4	0.80	15.6
Cam Thoroughman	16.8	91.2	12.4	6.0	50.0	9.0	1.05	109.1
Dalton Pepper	14.8	112.5	20.3	27.8	47.2	4.4	0.98	12.2

Look for juniors Kevin Jones and Truck Bryant to function as first and second scoring options when they are on the floor. They should be augmented by back court/wing players Casey Mitchell and Dalton Pepper, two of the most efficient rotation players last season. If they increase their time without reducing their usage (Poss%) or sacrificing efficiency (ORtg), they should be able to make up for the departed offense. West Virginia fans who look to senior John Flowers for a big step up will be disappointed. Flowers will get minutes, and the senior has provided better efficiency than (say) Joe Mazzulla, but Flowers has not provided more than limited role player-type offense in his previous three seasons, and will not grow much beyond that level this season either. An "X Factor" player going into this season is sophomore forward/center Deniz Kilicli, a Turk who sat for an NCAA-mandated 23 games last season. Should the Turk improve his rebounding (his shot efficiency, 51.2% eFG%, compared favorably with other members of the squad), he will see (a lot) more floor time in 2011.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Kevin Jones	81.2	13.0	7.2	10.9	3.1	1.1
Darryl Bryant	55.0	7.7	25.2	21.6	0.1	1.8
Joe Mazzulla	38.5	11.2	26.5	28.0	0.2	2.5
John Flowers	35.4	13.5	15.5	20.2	6.0	2.4
Casey Mitchell	18.5	7.5	9.9	10.7	0.0	2.2
Cam Thoroughman	16.8	10.5	11.6	34.8	1.8	1.2
Dalton Pepper	14.8	4.7	15.1	9.4	0.5	1.1

Not a good sign when the point guard is the second-most efficient defensive rebounder. Jones is a great offensive rebounder, but has to get better on the defensive glass. And someone from Pepper, Kilicli and Flowers will have to improve greatly if the West Virginia is to stay among the conference elites in defense.

Significant Additions
The Mountaineers' entering class, on the small (in number) size, has been steadily reduced. A single player, 6-10, 235 pound Kevin Noreen out of Minneapolis, MN is available. Noah Cottrill, a 6-3, 195 scoring machine, was suspended indefinitely in late October. Red shirt freshman Kenny Ross, a 6-0 175 pound guard, may see some rotation minutes.

Explode If...
1. Pepper, Kilicli and Mitchell can efficienctly replace the departed scoring.
2. The Mountaineers can take better care of the ball. Turnovers were not a drag on the offense last season, but should Coach Huggins' squad reduce their turnover rate (17.2% in conference play last season) by another 4% (which would rank them in the top 2-3 in conference) they could get another 2-3 field goal attempts per game in the bargain.
3. Bryant improves his shot conversion efficiency to "average". The guard was terrible last season, converting just 37.7% of his 2 point attempts and 31.5% of his 3 point attempts.

Implode If...
1. Reduction in the number of players available. The exact reason does not really matter, health or discipline failings can net the same result, and the squad has suffered both, and NCAA sanctions as well, over the past three seasons. At least five different players have had at least six run-ins that resulted in loss of game time. The coach does not have a deep enough squad this season to sustain efficiency should another player or two have to sit.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
West Virginia will rely on the 2010 Puerto Rico Tip-Off field to provide some credibility to their out of conference (OOC) schedule. Their first round opponent will be Davidson (Southern Conference), with either Nebraska (Big 12) or Vanderbilt (SEC -- most likely) to follow. High majors bracketed in the other half of the field include North Carolina (ACC -- a possible third opponent), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt powerhouse) and Minnesota (Big Ten -- possible fourth opponent). Puerto Rico comes early (November 18 through November 21), so the trip to Miami for a December 4 game is, local rivals Robert Morris and Duquesne aside, their sternest test before the Big East schedule. WVU does have two additional OOC games after conference play begins -- a made-for-TV matchup with Purdue (1/16) and traditional in state rival Marshall (1/19). If the Mountaineers are 11-0/10-1 (a reasonable expectation) when they meet St. John's on 12/29, they will ranked in the national polls and probably in line for a very good (#3 or better) seed in the NCAAs. 8-3 (or worse) and West Virginia fans will be pining for the days of Da'Sean Butler and Devin Ebanks.

West Virginia's mirrors, Backyard Brawl rival Pittsburgh, Louisville and DePaul, are a good, representative mix of the conference. Given the Coliseum's intimidation factor, the 'Eers should be able to wring a 4-2 or even 5-1 record from that trio. Noting the Coliseum as an advantage, hosting St. John's, Notre Dame and Seton Hall should translate into Ws for Coach Huggins' squad and provide a tie-breaker edge with teams that may well challenge for position in conference standings. The Johnnies and Pirates visit fairly early in the conference season. The Mountaineers open the conference season with a five game slate before they take a two game "OOC break". Those five games include a home opener against St. John's (welcome to the Big East Steve Lavin!), followed by a three game road trip (WVU's longest road run) that takes the squad out to the midwest (Marquette and DePaul) with a chaser in DC (Georgetown) and then a home game against Providence. Sporting a 3-2 conference record before hosting Purdue would be par for the course (but a bit disappointing?). Anything less should be cause for concern, though not surprising if their OOC record was (say) 8-3 or poorer. The last half of the schedule, on paper, is tougher than the first, so keeping the losses to one or two is important. The far turn features a road trip to Philadelphia and a meeting with Villanova. That game is followed by both Backyard Brawl games and a trip to Syracuse. If WVU has 10-11 conference wins going into the home stretch, they will be in very good shape as they have a trip to Piscataway and a date with Rutgers, followed by a two game homestand that features Connecticut and Louisville. A 3-0 run to close out the conference schedule (combined with the 10-11 wins going in) would put West Virginia in line for a #3/#4 seed in the Big East Tournament.

Departures -- St. John's Thru West Virginia

The Clearing Fog...Part 4 of 4
Unlike the 2009 off season, 2010 attrition from transfer and early NBA entry seems to be low and very school-specific. Of the 12 departures listed for these last four schools, only one is a transfer and two others are early entries in the NBA draft. All of the others are seniors, no small coincidence given that three of the four schools listed were the #1, #4 and #6 seeds in the BET.

St. John's

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Omari Lawrence	FR	G	Transf
Anthony Mason Jr.	RS SR	F	Grad

Heralded as an incoming recruit, Mason had a promising freshman campaign, but did not become the anticipated impact player after a series of injuries derailed his sophomore and junior seasons. 2010 was his fifth with the program, but even his re-introduction to the lineup was delayed this season with lingering injuries. He appeared in last 19 of the Johnnies' 33 games, starting 17 of them while averaging 24.7 minutes per game. Lawrence announced his intent to transfer in the middle of May. At 6-4 and 210 lbs, Lawrence found himself in competition with junior Paris Horne and JUCO Dwight Hardy for minutes last season. With the possible return of injured Quincy Roberts, those minutes will get tighter. An 11 day search process established to replace the fired Norm Roberts, tabbed Steve Lavin after several feelers and denials were processed. The administration had a list and worked through their options at a business-like pace. No signs of faltering or indecision/confusion in Queens. Coach Lavin moved with similar decisiveness as he put together his staff and pursued several late spring recruiting prospects. The competition for NYC bballers will increase over the next few years. Let's hope the bold moves translate into results on the court.

Syracuse

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Wesley Johnson	JR	F	NBA-In
Arinze Onuaku	SR	F	Grad
Andy Rautins	SR	G	Grad

The departures of Rautins and Onuaku were expected, even scheduled. Both took redshirts for injuries as underclassmen, and filled significant leadership roles for the team this season. The Orange may have several who may be ready to fill Onuaku's role, but Rautins' role, with his maturity and basketball IQ and deadly outside shot, may be more problematic. Coach Beoheim is the Dean of the Big East Coaching Fraternity. Despite several rebuffed initiatives to secure a line of succession back in the 2008 off season, there has been no word from Coach Boeheim about retirement. If he can repeat the 2010 season a few more times, he may never retire.

Villanova

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Reggie Redding	SR	G	Grad
Scottie Reynolds	SR	G	Grad
Russell Wooten	SR	F	Grad

I never understood how a player who took the Big East Rookie of the Year his freshman season (2007), was an All big East Team (1st, 2nd or 3rd) virtually every year he played, finished as the #2 scorer in Villanova history, only the second player to score more than 2,200 points in his career, was the #6 assist Villanova all-time leader, was named 1st All-American and Big 5 Player of the Year in his last season, could be so controversial, even after he played his last game for the Wildcats. Can the Nova Nation move on? Can the basketball program move on? Also departed is four year (off and on) starter Reggie Redding, who in a few ways was even more controversial than Reynolds. Which is a shame as both were, to all appearances, good players and even better people. Russell Wooten was a walk-on player and a fan favorite who saw minutes in out-of-reach games. Another member of Coach Wright's staff left to take a better job with another program. Despite off season job speculation that almost rivals the buzz surrounding Pitt's Jamie Dixon, the Coach is comfortable on the Main Line and intends to remain there...for the time being.

West Virginia

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Da'Sean Butler	SR	G/F	Grad
Devin Ebanks	SO	F	NBA-In
Wellington Smith	SR	F/C	Grad
Jonnie West	SR	F	Grad

Butler was arguably the Big East Player of the Year, especially during February. The Mountaineers advanced to the Final Four due to a team effort, led by the always-reliable Da'Sean Butler. Wellington Smith, a John Beilein-type (ie undersized and mobile) center, started all 38 games his senior season and logged 20+ minutes per game in a front court rotation of Kevin Jones, Devin Ebanks, John Flowers and Deniz Kilicli, all starters or regular substitutes. Ebanks' departure creates a need for front court help, something addressed with a late April signing. Jonnie West averaged 3.6 minutes per game in his 20 appearances last season. The program administration is solid and staying in place. Coach Huggins looks for all the world as if he has taken his last job. Morgantown is again a desirable destination for basketball talent.

Still Pending...
Ignoring for a moment the 900 pound gorilla, there is a "regular" ebb and flow to off season roster moves...
1. the coaching carousal -- the end of the spring signing period (May 19 this year) generally signals the end of the most active phase of coaching job turnovers among Division 1 schools. It is not in either party's interest to create (or take) a vacancy this "late" in the recruiting and hiring cycles. If any of the "untouched" positions turns over now, the catalyst will be a crisis -- life, health, propriety -- among the most likely causes. As Tim Welsh's tenure at Hofstra illustrates, these situations tend to develop and resolve quickly. Age may be a question with respect to Coach Boeheim, but given his attempts to develop a succession plan several seasons ago, I doubt he will would simply put in his papers and walk away. Especially now. Only Coach Calhoun at Connecticut has known health problems. Coach Pitino's moral crisis from the 2009 off season lingers, as the lady whose alleged extortion demands triggered his fall from grace is scheduled to go on trial this summer. The defendent's motion to change venues was denied, so Louisville (and the national press) may well mull the details and allegations one more time before the next school year. The Louisville program may be other shoes to drop, but most likely the worst has passed. Since 2007 (three cycles), the turnover rate after the Spring Signing period has ranged from 2% of the vacancies up to 18% of the vacancies, so expect a few more vacancies to open before Fall Practice.
2. Post regime house cleaning -- four coaching jobs turned over in the season/off season. The coaching jobs at DePaul and Rutgers have been "on the clock" for the past 2+ seasons; those programs have been bled dry by the prolonged process. Bobby Gonzalez almost casually turned over his rosters as players, exhibiting signs of burnout, routinely transferred to less stressful (lower major) programs. Omari Lawrence might be an early sign that some more of the St. John's roster will be heading out as Coach Lavin, alone among the new hires, is out of scholarships at this point.
3. Academic dismissals -- confidentially makes these difficult to keep track. Student-athletes on the brink often register for summer classes to clean up transcript/gpa problems. Summer school reports trickle out beginning in early July and running through late August. Given there is no Division 1 requirement or procedure for reporting and tracking academic qualifiers, we will not have a definite count of players until the rosters are published in September and October.

About That 900 Pound Gorilla...
Conference realignment speculation flew around the internet and in the national media just three weeks ago, but has largely died down in the wake of "no action" after the Big Ten ADs meeting last week did not result in any (public) offers. For the Big East programs that may receive invitations, the deadline to notify the conference of plans to withdraw pass at the end of June. Even should the Big Ten stage (and complete) a full-scale "ACC style" raid, the resulting realignment will happen after the 2010 basketball season.

Three Easy Pieces

Reflections on Coaches, by Sports Writers...
Most of that which I read these days is located on the internet. The writing ranges from straight reporting, to gossip (speculation and rumor), to analysis -- which seems to be rarely quantitative and too often laced with commentary. I have not found many good profile pieces, so when I ran across these, I felt a need to share. The approach allows the reader to get a bit closer to the subject, no mean feat considering each subject, celebrated for much of their respective careers, suffered (to varying degrees) a rather public fall from grace, and with that fall, a measure of controversy. Each homage was precipated by a specific event; something served as a catalyst to both motivate each writer to spark his own recollections and weave them into the narrative.

John Feinstein on Jim Valvano
Posted near the end of April on his blog, Feinstein on the Brink, John Feinstein's "Seventeen years later, Jim Valvano’s memory lives on" drew a number of internet comments & post-back links on other sites. I remember Valvano as a young and energetic coach who (literally) exploded onto the D1 stage when his Wolfpack, possibly the first Cinderella story of the NCAA Tournament (that CBS had the opportunity to sell a few ads on). Valvano became a a "good interview" and received a ton of publicity in the ensuing years. Villanova's 1985 win over Georgetown may have eclipsed Valvano's limelight, but as Feinstein suggests, Jimmy V was eager to be regarded as "more than a coach" by that time. Whenever I read about Valvano I cannot help but remember that both he and Mike Krzyzewski took up their ACC coaching jobs in the same year, 1980-81. Coach Valvano returned the Wolfpack to the NCAAs the next season, and won the National Championship the season after. Coach K did not return Duke to the NCAAs until 1984 (lost in the second round), and did not win his first National Championship until the 1990-91 season. Jimmy V built a personna and became a celebrity; Mike Krzyzewski built a program that became a dynasty.

Joe Posnanski on Bob Huggins
A Senior Writer at Sports Illustrated, Posnanski authors the Curiously Long Post blog, and posted "Huggs" near the end of March, about the time the Mountaineers won their regionals and moved on to the Final Four. Posnanski counts himself among those who are not Huggins fans, but penned a very readable and oddly endearing piece about the once controversial coach. West Virginia's run ended (rather badly at that) at the hands of Duke in the National Semi-Finals. Unlike a number of earlier character studies, Posnanski shows little interest in apologizing for Huggins, and strangely that approach makes Huggins a bit more sympathetic to the reader.

Dan Wetzel on Nolan Richardson
Wetzel wrote a loose, memory-laden review of Rus Bradburd's Forty Minutes of Hell: The Extraordinary Life of Nolan Richardson, an overdue look at the career of Arkansas' winningest basketball coach. Francis Schmidt (1923-29, 0.839) and Eddie Sutton (1976-1985, 0.776 -- yes, that Eddie Sutton) may have higher winning percentages, but neither stayed as long (17 years) nor won as many games. Wetzel has authored several books, and his skill is on display again in this book review. Unlike Feinstein and Posnanski, Wetzel moves his personal narrative to the background, allowing Bradburd to take the lead. Richardson, like Huggins (and Valvano?) has been at times a hard person to like. But always one to respect for his achievements. I was happy to hear he was back to coaching, this time in the pros -- the Tulsa Shock of the WBA.

Seton Hall - West Virginia -- Home for the Holidays

The Boys Are Back in Town...
A game in Newark, NJ, scheduled the day after Christmas for a team from West Virginia may sound like a hardship. But temper that first impulse, for 6 of West Virginia's 16 rostered players (Da'Sean Butler, Devin Ebanks, Kevin Jones, Darryl Bryant, Danny Jennings and Wellington Smith) a game at the Rock is practically a home game. They played their High School ball in and around New York City, Long Island or New Jersey. This was more like "Home for the Holidays" than "Long Strange Trip". And those 6 made the most of the chance to play in front of family and friends as they collectively shot 25-51 (7-18, 18-33) and 18-23 -- that is 83.6% of the Mountaineers' FGAs (and 81.6% of the team's 3FGAs). The six players accounted for 75 of West Virginia's 90 points (83.3%).

In the first half it did not appear that Seton Hall was getting any rebounds at all. Indeed the splits indicate the Pirates snagged <25% of their misses, but gave VWU 31.6% of their's, better than the D1 average (about 33%). The Pirates' 1st half problems derived from their inability to stop West Virginia from converting shots. Indeed, WVU's eFG% was 50.0%, based on a 50% conversion rate for 2s, and a 33% conversion rate for 3s. Very consistent. Seton Hall implemented a press to exploit WVU's lack of point guard skills on the floor (note that both Mazzulla and Bryant had dings. Though both played & logged about 62.5% of the minutes at the #1, neither was particularly effective offensively & even less so defensively). The Mountaineers had a 1st half turnover rate of 15.8, when combined with their 2nd half turnover rate (13.8), suggests the Hall's press was ineffective.

Half-time Adjustments
Coach Gonzalez appeared to have solved a few of the Hall's 1st half deficiencies, namely on the boards. But he failed to find a good strategy for the press. But the Hall's conversion efficiency (eFG%) remained flat at 43.1% for both halves. Improvements came from getting to the line and controlling their offensive boards better (up to 37.5%, from 23.1%), and getting to the line more. Converting at the line became very problematic however. The game was lost at the line in fact. While WVU had a free throw conversion rate of 72.7% (24 of 33), the Pirates could muster no better than 48% (16 of 33). Even merely matching WVU's conversion rate would have translated into a win.

Notes and Observations
1. Jeremy Hazell scored a career-high 41 points on 14-33 and 9-12 shooting. His eFG% was a disappointing 48.5% with a 1.06 PPWS, good, but not great numbers. Hazell took 34% of the Hall's possessions (a very large percentage) and over 42% of the squad's shots, when he was on the floor. Both numbers are high for anyone not named Michael Jordan, but Coach Gonzalez seemed to have made peace with the idea that Hazell would consume a lot of the Pirate's possessions and shots this season.
2. Keon Lawrence and Jeff Robinson 2 recently re-instated players, had comparatively quiet games. Lawrence scored no points in 7 minutes of action, while Robinson scored 5 points in 19 minutes.
3. Coach Huggins played his 4 forward (plus a guard) starting lineup for 79.1% of the available minutes (in contrast with Coach Gonzalez's 65.9% usage). The high percentage suggests the game was close (it was), but also lacking point guard level ball handling skills was not a point of vulnerability.
4. "No one in the Big East can score faster than Jeremy Hazell. Everyone knows that..." -- Coach Huggins.

Roster Moves -- Discipline?

I came across this piece from Gary Parrish over at CBSSports.com. Ebanks has not played in any of West Virginia's games this season, the subject, according to Parrish, of a disciplinary move by head coach Bob Huggins. The staff (ie Huggins) will not disclose the reason for Ebank's benching nor the length of time his punishment will run. According to Parrish, Ebanks' punishment will end...when the coach feels he is needed. The Mountaineers are playing in the 76 Classic, an early season invitational tournament held in Anaheim, CA. The field includes West Virginia, Long Beach State, Clemson, Texas A&M, Butler, UCLA, Minnesota and Portland. With Clemson, Butler, UCLA and Long Beach State (complements of the 'Eers) having lost in the 1st round, Ebanks was brought in to play 30 minutes in WVU's 2nd round game versus Texas A&M. Ebanks scored 12 points and dished 4 assists as West Virginia won 73-66.

Preview -- West Virginia

The Wildcats take to the road and travel to Morgantown, West Virginia to tackle the Mountaineers of West Virginia University. The 'Cats are hot, riding the crest of a 6 game winning streak that has carried them to a 20-4 season record, and 8-3 in the Big East. The 'Eers have been part of the post season conversation since the season's start, but a sub .500 record in conference would take them off of the NCAA's Dance Card. Currently they sport a 16-8 overall record, and 5-6 in the Big East, largely due to a slate of opponents that has included 2 games with Pitt (both losses), Connecticut, and road games against Louisville, Syracuse and Georgetown. The Wildcats would love to take the streak out at least one more. West Virginia would love to even their Big East tally & add a Top 10 win to their tournament resume...

Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
Villanova and West Virginia typicall move in different OOC circles, but come conference time, especially at this point in the season, have a few more common conference opponents:

	Nova		West Va
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Seton Hall	W (A)	OT +4	W (A)	+26
Connecticut	L (A)	-6	L (H)	-6
Marquette	L (A)	-7	L (A)	-22
Marquette	W (H)	+18
Providence	W (A)	+3	W (H)	+27
South Florida	W (A)	+9	W (H)	+3
Pittsburgh	W (H)	+10	L (H)	-12
Pittsburgh			L (A)	-11
St. John's	W (H)	+21	W (H)	+23
Syracuse	W (H)	+17	L (A)	-13
Louisville	L (H)	-1	L (A)	-6

West Virginia's best OOC win was Ohio State (Big Ten, 17-5, RPI #22). Aside from OSU, they have a 6 wins versus Top 100 RPI teams, giving them a record of 6-2 versus Top 100 OOC teams. Their two losses came at the hands of Kentucky (SEC, 17-7, RPI #64) and Davidson (Southern Conf, 19-4, RPI #49). As the table above shows, WVU has good (Top 100) wins from the conference schedule -- Providence (#62) and Seton Hall (#90). ...

Lineups, Rotations...
...Coach Huggins lost athletic junior pg Joe Mazzulla (6-2, 200lbs) for the season in the Davidson game (game #8 on their schedule), and had to saddle freshman Darryl "Truck" Bryant (6-2, 200lbs) with a good deal of responsibility early. The balance of the lineup has pretty much been set from the beginning of the season. Huggins will start senior Alex Ruoff (6-6, 220lbs) alongside Bryant in the back court, with a trio of 'tweener forwards, juniors Da'Sean Butler (6-7, 225lbs), Wellington Smith (6-7, 225lbs) and freshman Devin Ebanks (6-9, 205lbs), in the front court. Playing time for the starters has gone up since the beginning of Big East play as Coach Huggins has tightened his rotation. Huggins allocated about 66% of the PT to his starting lineup for OOC play; the starter's run increased to just over 70% at the start of Big East play, rising to nearly 75% going into Friday's game. He has also trimmed his rotation over time, from about 11.5 down to just over 10. As for the playing time, expect between 8 and 7 players to get > 10 minutes. If the game is close Coach Huggins will tend to the lower range of the rotation.

One of sophomore John Flowers (6-7, 195lbs) or freshman Kevin Jones (6-8, 220lbs) will be first off the bench. Each has garnered double digit minutes in the past 4 or so games. Next? Expect to see redshirt sophomore Cam Thoroughman (6-7, 225lbs), who has appeared in nearly every West Virginia game this season. The deeper region of the bench holds red shirt junior Josh Sowards (6-7, 205ls), JUCO junior center Dee Proby (6-10, 240lbs) and sophomore guard Will Thomas (6-5, 210lbs), who tend to see the court when matters have already been settled.

The Nova staff will have to shuffle the lineup now that Dwayne Anderson's bone bruise will sideline the senior for (at least?) one game. Continuing the trend of the past 3-4 games, senior forward Shane Clark and junior swing man Reggie Redding will most likely start alongside junior Scottie Reynolds and senior forward Dante Cunningham. Each is generally playing more minutes than they were last month. One of the Coreys, either Fisher or Stokes, will most likely get the call for the last spot. Given the impact he has had when he entered the Providence, Marquette and Syracuse games, I suspect it will be Fisher, though the staff, looking at West Virginia's length, may opt for Stokes. Antonio Pena will most likely have his minutes increased as well.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
West Virginia plays for about 66.7 possessions, just a bit less than Villanova ('Cats adjusted pace is 68). This game will match WVU's #35 ranked offense against Villanova's #16 ranked defense, and Villanova's #23 offense against WVU's #6 ranked defense. A "Four Factors" comparison for when West Virginia has the ball...

When West Virginia has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
'Eer O	48.5	18.2	39.8	36.0
Wildcat D	45.5	21.8	30.1	38.9

WVU's offense is, according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report, very typical for D1 teams -- they take about 1/3 of their FGAs from beyond the arc, and earn their points (by percentage) in a "very average" manner. Just over 1 in 4 points (27.4%) come from beyond the arc, about 1 in 5 (20.1%) from the charity stripe, the balance earned from 2s. And yet, per Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report), they do it (quite) a bit better than the average D1 team, a paradox given the Mountaineer's very average shooting efficiency (eFG% ranked #183 -- see table above) & ability to get to the line. They convert about 48% of their 2s (ranked #185), but only 32.7% of their 3s (ranked #218) and 67% of their FTs (ranked #200), suggesting the WVU squad converts through persistence, rather than accuracy. They separate from the D1 pack through turnovers (they don't -- a carryover from the Beilein teams?) and offensive rebounding (they do, and very well). Grabbing those misses for 2nd chance opportunities can be very important for a team with very average at converting possessions into points. The Mountaineers' success at rebounding has been spotty though, good against most Big East opponents, but ineffective against Pittsburgh in their second game (about 11%, catastrophic for an average shooting team), Connecticut, Louisville and Syracuse. The 'Cats have been (with a few exceptions...) effective on the defensive boards, where even the guards are active. The WVU offense will go through 2 players, Bryant and Ruoff. One of those two has touched the ball before over 40% of WVU's FGMs. Both are ranked in Pomeroy's top 500 for assist rate. West Virginia limits turnovers because 3 of the 5 players most likely to take a shot (Butler, Ruoff and Jones) are also ranked in Pomeroy's top 500 as least likely to commit a turnover. The upper classmen, Ruoff and Butler, are the most efficient scorers on the squad, and they are 2 of the 3 players most likely to take a shot. Those two, along with the freshman Bryant, are also most likely to launch a 3. The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus WVU's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	52.0	18.6	36.6	43.6
'Eer D	45.4	25.5	32.1	40.9

Want to Beat West Virginia? Then...
The most significant determinate for this matchup is, like most of the earlier matchups, shooting. And it is not close...
1. Challenge their shooting, close down the inside & make them shoot 3s. WVU is 12-0 when they post an eFG% of 48.5 or better. When held to Nova's defensive eFG% (44.5) or less, the 'Eers are 3-8. Having played 7 games (3 against Big East teams) where they shot an eFG% < 40, it is clear West Virginia is capable of having very cold shooting nights.
2. Hit your own shots. While eFG$s of 60.0 or higher (Nova's last 2 games) are outliers, the 'Cats have had only one game (Louisville) where their eFG% was less than 46.4. In games where opponents have converted at 45.5 or higher, the Mountaineers have gone 4-6.
3. Value the ball, don't turn it over. Nova's turnover rate is 18.6 -- WVU's record when their opponent's turnover rate is Nova's or less, is 2-4. The 'Cats are 11-1 when they make their 18.6 turnover rate or lower.

Finally...
...Both teams feature 'tweener front court players who will man the low post, while guards & swingmen roam the wing probing for weaknesses and defensive breakdowns. Villanova will put a third guard (Reggie Redding, Corey Stokes...) out on the wing, while West Virginia will counter with a taller, forward-type player (Ebanks, Butler...). That matchup may be critical for determining who controls the boards off of West Virginia's basket. Ruoff, Butler and Bryant are WVU's 1st three options on offense, with Ruoff and Butler, wing men, the most efficient scorers on the team. Both are in the 6-6/6-7 range, and will present matchup problems for the 6-4/6-5 guards Nova will most likely put on them. Forcing Bryant to take even more offensive responsibilities might work to depress WVU's conversion efficiency. While Villanova's last three games have also been the team's best offensive outings, the 'Cats up to that point had not shown an affinity for a higher tempo game. It will be intersting to see if which squad shows up to play Friday.

Pomeroy projects the game to be played for 67 possessions (well within both team's comfort zones) with the 'Eers taking a 5 point decision. The 'Cats have exceeded those projections in 7 of their last 8 games.