Penn Post Game -- Closing Out

They Were on Fire, and Then...
There were times in the first half when it appeared, Big 5 game/rivalry or not, Villanova was going to sweep Penn right out of the Pavilion. The 'Cats opened with a 12-4 run in the game's first five minutes on their way to a 73-65 win over their Big 5 rival. The score understated the Wildcats' domination...

	Score	Poss	PPP	eFG%	TO%
Penn	4	8	0.50	33.3	25.0
Villanova	12	8	1.50	75.0	0.0

The teams were on track for a 32 possession half and a 64 possession game...with a score of 96-32 Villanova. Numbers too good to be sustained...and the skeptics were not disappointed. Not before Villanova doubled the score on Penn, 32-16 near the 3:00 mark of the first half. The Wildcats took a solid 18 point lead, 38-20, into the intermission.

"I thought it was important (with Maalik Wayns out with two first half fouls) that we did not let him (Penn point guard Zack Rosen) get started..." Coach Wright asserted in the post game press conference, "...because once he gets going, it's really tough to stop him..." This served as the explanation for Penn's point guard Zack Rosen's second half explosion. Going into the half with six points on 2-4 (0-1, 2-3) from the floor and 2-2 from the line, Penn's preseason favorite to take Player of the Year honors in the Big 5 used the time to gather himself, and returned to the floor to record 17 more points as he engineered the Quakers' second half rush to close the gap. Though they fell short, Penn whittled a deficit that bulged to 18 early in the half down to four with 0:15 left to play. Rosen's three pointer (one of seven they managed to convert after shooting 0-7 in the first half) brought the Quakers to 65-69, but they could get no closer as the young Wildcats hit their free throws to push the margin back out to eight.

With Maalik Wayns on the bench
Zack Rosen schools Achraf Yacoubou (24) in first half action

The bloggers over at VUHoops.com focus on Villanova's nine game winning streak over Penn and how the squad converted at the line to bring home the win in their piece, "9 Straight for Cats Over Quakers". The Nova Blog noted Penn's second half rally in "Villanova Holds Off Penn's..." and how the Wildcats preserved the win. The University site posted the AP wire story and the official boxscore. The breakdown by halves

Opponent	Penn
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	33.1	33.4	66.5
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	114.8	104.8	109.8		60.4	134.8	97.8
eFG%	62.1	28.8	46.4		29.2	66.1	50.0
TORate	21.2	12.0	16.5		24.2	12.0	18.1
OR%	33.3	35.0	34.3		16.7	33.3	24.2
FTA/FGA	17.2	92.3	52.7		33.3	16.1	23.6
FTM/FGA	6.9	76.9	40.0		25.0	12.9	18.2
ARate	60.0	71.4	63.6		14.3	58.8	45.8
Blk%	10.3	3.8	7.3		4.2	6.5	5.5
Stl%	9.0	8.7	8.9		9.1	3.1	6.1
PPWS	1.21	0.94	1.06		0.72	1.35	1.06
2FG%	47.4	46.2	46.9		46.7	55.6	51.5
3FG%	60.0	7.7	30.4		0.0	53.8	31.8
FT%	40.0	83.3	75.9		75.0	80.0	76.9
%2FG	47.4	34.3	41.1		70.0	44.4	52.3
%3FG	47.4	8.6	28.8		0.0	46.7	32.3
%FT	5.3	57.1	30.1		30.0	8.9	15.4

Half Time Adjustments
The pace was dictated by Villanova and remained consistent through both halves. Penn's marked, half-over-half improvement on offense (or Villanova's defensive lapse if you wish) was graphic and led by the turnaround on their outside shooting. The Wildcats kept their points per possession rate north of one (1.048 PPP) on the strength of their offensive rebounding, dramatic drop in turnovers and the large number of times they got to the line. From Zack Rosen's post game comments, "...I don't know where our confidence was...we want to go out and play with anybody, no matter who it is...and do what we do. I think in the second half we did what we did..." Indeed, the Quakers hit 7-13 from beyond the arc, One of the minor surprises is how Penn, which racked up a staggering 27 personal fouls managed to keep their entire rotation eligible for play. Three Quakers, Rosen, forward Henry Brooks and forward/center Cameron Gunter picked up four fouls apiece while four others had three fouls apiece. Five of Penn's 18 rostered players are 6-8 and taller. They struggled to block out Mouphtao Yarou, sending the junior forward to the line for 12 free throw attempts.

Notes & Observations
1. About Villanova's defense -- "We gotta learn we have to play 40 minutes...it's hard (to maintain defensive intensity), but good teams do that...when you're young...when you get a lead...the place you rest is on defense. When you're a veteran...and you're going to rest, you do it on offense" -- Coach Jay Wright

2. Maalik Wayns picked up his second foul with nine minutes left in the first half and sat for the balance of the period. He took no shots in the first half, dished two dimes, racked up a steal and committed two turnovers before retiring to the bench. Urged at the half to shoot more, the junior's line at the finish was 11 points on 2-4 (1-2 from beyond the arc, 1-2 inside) shooting from the field and 6-6 at the line.

Maalik Wayns' three pointer in the second half
helped staunch a Quaker comeback

3. With Wayns on the bench and Rosen on the loose, the staff with limited options turned to freshmen Ty Johnson and Achraf Yacoubou to pick up Wayns' minutes and they did not disappoint. Johnson logged 15 minutes as he manned the point, recording six points while providing three assists to two turnovers. The freshman grabbed a rebound and was credited with a steal. Yacoubou was a bit less productive offensively, but he did dish two dimes while committing one turnover in an 18 minute stint.

4. Yarou racked up a double-double, 21 points and 11 rebounds in 33 minutes of action. The Quakers did not have a player, or combination of players who could contain Yarou.

Ty Johnson directs the Wildcats late in the first half

5. With the win, the latest in a streak of nine (as reported by VUHoops.com), Villanova now holds a 39-14 edge over Penn in their Big 5 series. This is the least competitive of the head-to-head series within the Big 5.

Penn's Coach Jerome Allen directs the Quakers
from the sidelines

Roster Moves
The staff used an eight man rotation against Penn, the shallowest this season, as junior forward/center Maurice Sutton dislocated his right thumb in practice this week. He is expected to miss between two and three weeks. Do not look for him before the Big East season. Freshman forward Markus Kennedy collided with JayVaughn Pinkston in practice and sustained a shoulder injury. Coach Wright hopes he will be ready Tuesday for the Missouri game in Madison Square Garden.

La Salle Post Game -- Big 5 Parity?

Last Laughs...
That collective snicker heard out of the Nova Nation Monday night when the sports ticker ran the Temple/Penn score (Temple 73-67 in overtime), the favor was returned Tuesday when Villanova needed an extra five minutes to beat La Salle, 76-69, as the two Philadelphia schools opened the Big 5 portion of their seasons. It was not a pretty game, marred by a combined 33 turnovers (20 committed by the Wildcats), 41 fouls (30 committed by La Salle) and sub 40% shooting from the field (Villanova 35.2%, La Salle 37.1%). Down by 10 at the 1:17 mark of the first half, the Wildcats used the next 2:45 for an 11-0 run to take their second lead of the game, 32-31 at the 18:31 mark of the second half. The last 18 minutes of regulation saw seven lead changes and six ties, as the longtime rivals built leads of up to five points as the half wound down. La Salle's senior wing Earl Pettis tied the game at 50 with a three point conversion at the 6:30 mark of regulation, and the Explorers took the lead on their next possession (a layup by sophomore guard Sam Mills) and used the next 5:08 to build a five point lead (61-56). With 1:22 left the Wildcats mounted one last offensive rush. Maalik Wayns hit a long jumper to bring the 'Cats to within two (59-61), then Wayns fouled to force an inbound play. Freshman guard Darrun Hilliard picked off Earl Pettis' inbound pass to Taylor Dunn, bolted to the bucket for the layup that knotted the game, for the eighth time, at 61, with less than a minute in the half. Hilliard stepped up to block a Taylor Dunn jumper, the deflection going to junior wing Dom Cheek, who passed to Wayns for a runout. Wayns missed the layup and the teams went into overtime. The Wildcats controlled the game virtually from the overtime tip-off, converting 2-2 at the free throw line (sophomore James Bell) on their second overtime possession. The Explorers tied once (at 63) at the 2:45 mark of overtime, but could do no more as the 'Cats closed out the period with a 13-6 run.

The University site posted their AP wire story. The official website also posted the boxscore, thank heaven. The breakdown by halves

Opponent	La Salle
	1st	2nd	OT	Game
Pace	36.7	31.3	10.4	78.4
	Offense					Defense
	1st	2nd	OT	Game		1st	2nd	OT	Game
Rating	70.8	112.0	144.6	97.0		81.7	96.0	86.7	88.1
eFG%	30.4	44.2	50.0	38.9		48.1	40.6	37.5	42.9
TORate	38.1	12.8	19.3	25.5		21.8	12.8	9.6	16.6
OR%	42.1	33.3	33.3	37.5		0.0	33.3	37.5	22.2
FTA/FGA	69.6	57.7	200.0	75.9		23.1	15.6	0.0	15.7
FTM/FGA	52.2	46.2	200.0	63.0		19.2	12.5	0.0	12.9
ARate	57.1	30.0	50.0	42.1		70.0	50.0	0.0	50.0
Blk%	0.0	11.5	11.5	5.6		7.7	6.3	6.3	7.1
Stl%	10.9	12.9	12.9	12.7		10.9	3.2	3.2	6.4
PPWS	0.85	1.06	1.54	1.03		1.04	0.87	0.75	0.92
2FG%	63.6	36.8	100.0	48.4		31.3	47.6	33.3	39.1
3FG%	0.0	42.9	25.0	17.4		50.0	18.2	33.3	33.3
FT%	75.0	80.0	100.0	82.9		83.3	80.0	0.0	81.8
%2FG	53.8	40.0	13.3	39.5		33.3	66.7	66.7	52.2
%3FG	0.0	25.7	20.0	15.8		50.0	20.0	33.3	34.8
%FT	46.2	34.3	66.7	44.7		16.7	13.3	0.0	13.0

It's Beginning to Look A Lot Like Christmas
If I highlighted the good numbers with green and the disappointing numbers with red, the table above would take on the look of a Christmas card (actually a Valentine's Day card, not a whole lot of good news here), but instead I will use a Christmas-neutral yellow to highlight the four factors numbers that were critical to shaping the outcome. Converting shots at a 38.9% clip is a recipe for a loss, especially when your opponent is converting at a rate 4% greater (42.9%). Not until the overtime period, when Dr. Giannini's squad was most likely exhausted (three Explorers logged more than 40 minutes to Villanova's one), did Villanova convert at a 50% efficiency. Combined with a 25.5% turnover rate makes the win almost impossible. How did the 'Cats counter? They dominated the boards. Dominated might be an understatement, as the Villanova outrebounded La Salle by 15 (50-35). Offensively, the 'Cats grabbed 37.5% of their own misses, providing them with 15 more scoring opportunities. Defensively, Villanova grabbed nearly 78% of La Salle misses -- including a very impressive 100% defensive rebounding rate in the first half -- denying the Explorers the chance to "net out" Villanova's scoring advantage. Though La Salle took 16 more field goal attempts, Villanova held a 41-11 free throw attempt edge on 30 La Salle personal fouls. Freshman center Steve Zack fouled out in 18 minutes, while freshman starting forward, Jerrell Wright logged four fouls in 12 minutes of play. In all one Explorer (Zack) was DQ'd, while four others (Wright, plus Mills, Dunn and senior forward Devon White) played with four fouls. The 'Cats held a 34-9 margin in converted free throws, enough for the win.

Notes & Observations
1. The staff continues to show a four guard staring lineup, using Wayns at the point with Bell playing the "#4" and Hilliard and Cheek rotating between the #2 and the #3. Versus Monmouth Hilliard received a fairly short run, but versus La Salle the freshman logged an upper classman-like 34 minutes. Both the rotation was deeper (11 players to 10 used by Dr. Giannini) and the time more evenly distributed (one player with >40 minutes vs. three for La Salle) than the Explorers, but the regular rotation is clearly not carved in stone. Junior foward Maurice Sutton, an afterthought for the European Tour and Monmouth game (he logged five minutes in that 36 point romp last Friday) caught four very important overtime minutes versus La Salle. The junior was credited with a blocked shot and two defensive rebounds during his run. JayVaughn Pinkston picked up another 20 of playing time, while fellow freshman forward/center Markus Kennedy had only 10 minutes of time. Observers have suggested Kennedy is the "more ready" of the two, but the staff apparently likes what they see in Pinkston a bit more.
2. Among the starters, Wayns (36% Shot%, 36.3% Poss%) and Bell (26.3% Shot%, 27.7% Poss%) were the offensive engines. Neither was efficient, converting their shots at 37.5% and 41.7% respectively. Both however, redeemed themselves at the free throw line, using their converted free throws (Wayns was 10-10; Bell 5-6) to push their PPWS (points per weighted shot) above the 1.00 threshold. For Wayns, despite his horrific 5-16 shooting (though he did hit a crucial three point attempt at the 1:10 mark of regulation to cut La Salle's lead to a managable two), managed a number of heady plays at crunch time. He fouled with under 45 seconds left after La Salle broke Villanova's press. With fouls to give it forced an inbound play, thus setting the table for Hilliard's end-game heroics.
3. Mouphtaou Yarou and Cheek among the starters, along with Pinkston from the rotation, form a second/third option for scoring. Among the first/second/third options, only Yarou with a 57.1% eFG%, was efficient. Given Yarou's 19.4% Shot Rate, the guards will have to find him more often if the big is to have an impact on offense. Hilliard, with a 66.7% eFG%, was nearly invisible (statistically) on offense. His crucial conversion, a tying layup with under a minute to play, was the most obvious of several timely conversions.
4. Offensive boards came complements of Yarou (11.3%) and Kennedy (22.5% on limited minutes). Bell (8.9%) and Cheek (8.2%) are following that tradition of rebounding Villanova guards. On the defensive boards, again Yarou (31.2%) led the way with Wayns(!) following (18.7%), Pinkston (15.0%), Cheek (12.2%), Kennedy (10.0%) and Sutton (28.6% -- very limited minutes). The Explorers lack a dominant rebounder; Zack and Williams are not experienced enough yet.

Big 5 Notes
1. Dr. Giannini has never beaten Villanova, going 0-8 in his tenure at La Salle. Coach Wright is 10-1 versus La Salle in his 11 year run at Villanova.
2. As part of the Big 5 series dating back to 1955, Villanova holds a 30-23 edge over La Salle.

Villanova's Returning Players Using Value Add (and Sub)

The Value Add System
Cracked Sidewalks poster bamamarquettefan1 introduced his Offensive Impact stat back on May 1 with a list of the 100 best offensive players in the Big East as a preparation for a more comprehensive offensive stat (Value Add) which he explained in his May 10 post over at Cracked Sidewalks. Offensive Value Add and Defensive Value Sub (explained in his May 17 post also at Cracked Sidewalks) is the latest in a long time movement that uses a single (all encompassing) expression to develop "a number" which describes every player's value to his team, and by inference, a metric that can be used to compare players of different teams. Unlike John Hollinger's PER system, this one is not a straight-line formula. Like the Plus/Minus system, Value Add (Value Sub) defines an individual's value relative to the team on which he plays. Rather than track time on the court to produce an estimate of the points produced and allowed, Value Add (Value Sub) uses possession-based stats developed by Ken Pomeroy and after calculating the offensive impact the player had, calculates that impact versus a hypothetical replacement player. After building the model for an offensive value, bamamarquettefan1 then introcuded an expression to determine the defensive value of each Division 1 player. Like Oliver and others however, bamamarquettefan1 is, after accounting for individual "defensive" stats (blocked shots, steals, defensive rebounds...) is reduced to allocating the balance of the defensive credit (stops/missed field goals, etc.) according to time played (Min% per Ken Pomeroy).

Villanova's Returning Players
After an email exchange, bamamarquettefan1 was gracious enough to share his spreadsheet with me, and I am very happy to credit Cracked Sidewalks and bamamarquettefan1 for the material. Villanova's six returning players...

			------Value------			National
	ORtg	DRtg	Off Add	Def Sub	Total	Rank
Mouphtaou Yarou	107.0	97.2	1.93%	-0.96%	2.89%	222
Maalik Wayns	103.8	99.1	2.67%	0.00%	2.67%	252
Dominic Cheek	100.6	98.0	0.75%	-0.40%	1.15%	654
Maurice Sutton	97.6	96.7	0.19%	-0.46%	0.65%	944
James Bell	114.3	98.6	0.54%	-0.03%	0.57%	1009
Isaiah Armwood	95.4	98.1	0.16%	-0.29%	0.46%	1091

Observations (about Villanova's returning roster)
1. Identifying Mouphtaou Yarou and Maalik Waynes as the two best returning players was not surprising, but the order is...a little. I think most fans would agree with the order -- as a longer term projection (but not last season). If accurate, then thoughts of a post junior season exit for Yarou might be in order.
2. Given that James Bell was injured for the first five games of the season and was used sparingly for the next four (and irregularly after that), his ranking has to encourage optimism for his sophomore season.
3. Is Dom Cheek the victim of relative expectations? The rising junior was certainly not the only sophomore who disappointed last season, but his struggles as the team faded in February seemed more obvious than the other sophomores. I would love to see him have a breakout season as a junior.
4. Clearly for both Maurice Sutton and Isaiah Armwood, the contribution is on defense, not offense. The statistics confirm what the eyes have told us.

Guest Contributor: Pico Dulce -- St. John's Scouting Report

Pico Dulce of Rumble in the Garden blog ran off a scouting report on the Red Storm...

Starting Five & Rotation Notes
Dwight Hardy G 6'2" and listed at 195 (which I don't believe) - he has a lot of nicknames and takes a lot of shots for the Red Storm. He's become very accurate in the last month. You may heave heard something about him.

Paris Horne G 6'3" - an ace defender, and finally able to use his combination of athleticism - strength and speed, defensive agility and leaping ability - to help the team win in ways that don't show up on the scoreboard.

DJ Kennedy G/F 6'5" - a tenacious dirty-work player who will pick up rebounds and is a dangerous defender in the Red Storm's press and in transition defense.

Dwayne Polee II F 6'7" - a long freshman getting his feet wet with a number of starts, he has a developing jump shot.

The Red Storm go maybe 8 deep, with forwards Justin Burrell and Sean Evans logging time in the post, along with point guard Malik Boothe.

Justin Burrell is 6'8" and looks like a basketball player. Half the time, he plays like a basketball player; he's been motivated and focused recently, so his active brand of basketball - physical, strong, and liable to catch a Technical foul - will be on display.

Sean Evans, the Philly native, has re-blossomed into a bit of a low-post force. He's doing a lot more right now than he did in the previous 3 seasons, not breaking off of the offense to make dribble moves that go nowhere (I hope he was breaking off of the plan. If that was the plan, well...). Evans can bang in the paint and hold his space.

Malik Boothe is all of 5'9" but he has been a defensive sparkplug. No quarter asked, none given. He's happy to try and pull the ball right out of another players' hands, passes decently, and is much better at making an end-of-shot-clock jumper or drive than in the past.

Defense First
St. John's whole system is based off of their defensive pressure. It's not constant; they press off of made shots, generally, and the press tends to slow teams down a bit, restricting transition opportunities. At times, they will crank it up with Paris Horne and Malik Boothe guarding ballhandlers close; there will be traps around halfcourt at times. When the press is broken, there is often an open 3-pointer waiting to happen.

In the halfcourt, the Red Storm mostly play a matchup zone. Some games it looks better than others, and they give up a number of three-pointers in the zone - for periods of the game. Late in the game, they tend to better identify developing threats and mark them well. Even with the open threes, the zone is effective. The Red Storm spring traps in the corners to force turnovers or passes that lead to turnovers. The team reacts well in the zone, forcing cross-court passes that can get a little wild.

On Offense
On offense the team moves the ball up quickly to test the defense. Off of misses and of turnovers, DJ Kennedy will likely be in the middle, looking for a streaking Justin Brownlee or Paris Horne going to the basket; sometimes Kennedy's the recipient of those passes. Dwight Hardy is often guarded, and gets many of his points off of a screen-and-roll and a dribble. He's become awesome at attacking a little bit of daylight for a drive and layup/ foul or a mid-range jump shot.

His job as point guard is in name only; he gets to handle the ball because he's uniquely able to take advantage of small breakdowns in the defense. But his ability to attack draws defenders; he'll pass the ball off, and get it back when he's better able to attack his man.

Vulnerabilities & Conclusion
The Red Storm have been susceptible to size for much of the season; Justin Brownlee is less effective against bigger defenders, though he is using his offensive versatility more than in the past. But the team has trouble scoring on longer, taller teams like Cincinnati; expect them to have some struggles against Yarou and Pena if they can't coax those two out of the paint. The forwards have shown a willingness to pass out of trouble (and to rotate to places to accept passes when their teammates are in trouble), and they look more effective, even if the shots aren't falling. Justin Burrell has shown signs of being a creative post player once more, so there's a chance that he might be able to go to work on Villanova.

Overall, the Johnnies are playing smart, smart basketball. I don't think they'll win - but that's mainly because I'm a pessimist. The team is really clicking despite their weaknesses, and they've become a real joy to watch.

greyCat Notes...Pico is absolutely correct about his last point -- this Johnnies team has been fun to watch. I caught them at the Garden for the Notre Dame and Pittsburgh games this season and the team has taken a 180 degree turn from 2010 and earlier editions. This is a very dangerous St. John's team.

On Dwayne Polee -- when asked in the Pitt post game presser about next season's team, Coach Steve Lavin suggested that getting starts and minutes this season for Polee would pay dividends next season as he would be one of the experienced players the staff could rely on to bring next season's freshmen along.

Catch Pico's "5 Questions..." features with VUHoops.com (they discuss indispensable players, the bigs turnover problems and "Jay Wright to..." rumors) and Nova Blog (they explore confidence issues, Mo Sutton's suspensions, futures for Corey Fisher, etc.) over at Rumble in the Garden. Pico has also combined material from his "5 Questions for..." features with a scouting report I sent over yesterday and produced an entertaining breakdown of the Wildcats and Johnnies game tomorrow.

Saint Joseph's Post Game -- Holy War, 2010-11

Holy...Difference of Opinion?
The Hawks of Saint Joseph's held the lead over the Wildcats of Villanova for the first 4:30 of the game, relinquishing the lead briefly to regain it at the 13:53 mark. They would hold it for only 30 seconds more before releasing it for the last time. For the next 33 and half minutes the question was only by how much the Wildcats would win. The answer turned out to be 11, as Villanova won 71-60 and ran their Big 5 record to 2-0 for 2010-11. The Wildcats took a 10 point lead into the break, Mouphtaou Yarou missed a layup at the 0:01 mark that would have given the 'Cats an even dozen.

The second half saw the Wildcats push the lead out to 20 at the 6:38 mark and then go a stone-cold 1-6 from the field with three turnovers to let Saint Joseph's nibble away at the margin on 5-8 shooting.

Mike over at VUhoops.com did the honors with a brief recap. Chris at the Nova Blog ran an open thread, but truth be told even the VUSports Bench Warmers board did not draw many comments. Villanova Viewpoint Publisher has yet to recap, but he did post a detailed history of the series as a preview for tonight's game. Fact over at the Fact on Villanova blog had a completely different take on the series. It is valued only by the over 50 crowd (I confess I did not know the Villanova Viewpoint Publisher was that old...).

The official website posted the official boxscore and the AP wire story, which for the first time in memory offered a mild criticism of the effort with "...Villanova won despite another lousy shooting night and a lackadaisical performance down the stretch. It shot 39 percent, including 7 for 23 on 3s...". The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Saint Joseph's University
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	33.9	28.8	62.7
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	112.2	114.6	113.3		82.7	111.1	95.7
eFG%	44.4	43.1	43.8		46.6	48.4	47.5
TORate	11.8	24.3	17.6		20.7	10.4	16.0
OR%	39.1	61.9	50.0		22.2	40.0	31.6
FTA/FGA	19.4	41.4	29.2		10.3	12.5	11.5
FTM/FGA	16.7	27.6	21.5		3.4	3.1	3.3
ARate	64.3	90.9	76.0		33.3	38.5	36.0
Blk%	13.9	13.8	13.8		3.4	9.4	6.6
Stl%	2.9	7.0	4.8		12.0	3.5	8.0
PPWS	0.97	0.95	0.96		0.92	0.94	0.93
2FG%	43.5	42.1	42.9		50.0	40.0	44.7
3FG%	30.8	30.0	30.4		27.3	41.7	34.8
FT%	85.7	66.7	73.7		33.3	25.0	28.6
%2FG	52.6	48.5	50.7		64.3	50.0	56.7
%3FG	31.6	27.3	29.6		32.1	46.9	40.0
%FT	15.8	24.2	19.7		3.6	3.1	3.3

The "good" stats get some green highlighting while the "bad" ones get the red treatment. I will go over a few of the high and low points below, but the stat that caught my attention at the break and into the second half (I tracked possessions and Oliver's Four Factors for 10 minutes into the second half) was the pace. At just under 34 possessions for the half the two teams appeared on track (more or less) to get Pomeroy's projected 71 possessions for the game. The second half often yields a few more possessions than the first, especially if the team that is down is capable or pushing the pace. 28-29 possessions was well below the anticipated pace, but consistent with Villanova's very short bench (see Roster Moves at the end) and a strong desire to keep the regular rotation resh at the end of the game. The other stats that jumpted out after the game was the poor shot conversion rate (eFG%) relative to the offensive rating for the team (the Rating -- divide by 100 to compute the points per possession). The paradox is the comparision of those two numbers -- the 'Cats converted shots very poorly "...lousy shooting...", but the nevertheless very strong offensive rating. The heart of the system is shot conversion, so what gives? The next two most important stats, turnover rate and offensive rebounding, are very strong.

Notes & Observations
1. Low PPWSs for the Cats suggest the team was not converting shots nor getting to the line consistently. The low eFG% confirms the low conversion rate, and the lower than expected FTA/FGA in the first half confirms when the 'Cats did not convert from the field, the refs were not bailing them out.
2. The Wildcats had four squad members in double digits, with Corey Stokes leading the team with 19 points on 6-15 (3-9, 3-6) and 2-2 shooting. The senior guard also snagged eight rebounds and accounted for a steal, a block, a dime and an assist.
3. Senior forward Antonio Pena logged his eighth double-double as a Villanovan (and first this season), scoring 14 points on 7-9 (7-9, 0-0) and 0-1 shooting while gathering 14 rebounds (3-11-14) in 34 minutes of play.
4. The second half assist rate (percentage of made field goals came through an assist) was over 90%, extremely high and a radical departure from the days of the "take 'em" offense.

Roster Moves
Sophomore Maurice Sutton is walking with a boot on his right ankle. Official word is that it is sprained, but speculation is that it is fractured. Sophomore Isaiah Armwood was DNP due to back spasms, while freshmen JayVaughn Pinkston was DNQ again. Freshman James Bell warmed up, and followed his minute or two of action in the Tennessee game with 11 minutes of play, off the bench, against the Hawks. Pinkston is apparantly somewhere in an appeals process for his assault citations, though rumors persist that he is done for the year. The rotation tonight was seven players, with everyone of them receiving at least 10 minutes.

Marist Post Game -- Offensive Distribution

Streaks
Villanova, designated as the "North Region Pod Site" for the 2010 NIT Tip-Off hosted the Red Foxes of Marist University in first round action Tuesday night at the Pavilion on the Mainline campus. They were not very good hosts as they crushed the Red Foxes 84-47 and ran their Pavilion winning streak to 37 consecutive games. For Marist, a team that logged a 1-29 record last season, this was no way to open their 2011 campaign.

The Wildcats took a 3-0 lead two minutes in on a Corey Stokes three pointer, and the two teams "played tag" for the next four minutes. Villanova retook the lead for good on a Maalik Wayns three point jumper at the 13 minute mark of the first period. Fueled by a 16-1 run in the middle of the first period, the 'Cats stretched the lead to 15 points, 24-9, before the Red Foxes broke back with a 10-4 run to trim Nova's lead to eight points. The 'Cats broke back with a 8-2 run before Marist guard Anell Alexis hit a three pointer to close out the half, leaving Villanova with an 11 point lead, 36-25 going into the locker room. Villanova used the first 10 minutes of the second half to take a 19-10 run and pad their lead out to 20. Marist offered resistance, but steadily surrendered points as Villanova spent the last 10 minutes padding the lead. Marist failed to score at all in the last five minutes as the 'Cats tallied the last 16 points of the game and bringing the total to 88-47.

VUhoops.com has posted a quick recap, "Villanova Mauls Marist" with the results of their Closest to the Pin contest. Chris over at The Nova Blog used his report, "postGame: Villanova 84, Marist 47 " to complement the team on their strong showing after a less-than-stellar performance in the Bucknell game. Chris gave a hat tip to sophomores Dom Cheek and Maurice Sutton, citing Sutton's numbers in detail. Both Chris and Ed '77 mentioned that five Wildcats, Maalik Wayns (game-high 17 points), Dom Cheek (15), Maurice Sutton (13), Mouphtaou Yarou (10) and Corey Fisher (10) logged double digit points.

The official website also posted the boxscore and an AP wire story. The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Marist
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	34.5	34.1	68.6
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	104.4	140.9	122.5		72.5	64.6	68.6
eFG%	37.5	67.2	50.8		33.9	27.6	30.7
TORate	11.6	14.7	13.1		23.2	20.6	21.9
OR%	44.0	25.0	37.8		28.6	27.3	27.9
FTA/FGA	33.3	31.0	32.3		32.1	20.7	26.3
FTM/FGA	25.0	31.0	27.7		21.4	20.7	21.1
ARate	66.7	64.7	65.5		62.5	57.1	60.0
Blk%	11.1	0.0	6.2		10.7	13.8	12.3
Stl%	2.9	11.3	7.1		11.7	9.1	10.4
PPWS	0.86	1.44	1.12		0.77	0.69	0.73
2FG%	42.9	52.2	47.7		35.7	27.8	31.3
3FG%	20.0	83.3	38.1		21.4	18.2	20.0
FT%	75.0	100.0	85.7		66.7	100.0	80.0
%2FG	50.0	50.0	50.0		40.0	45.5	42.6
%3FG	25.0	31.3	28.6		36.0	27.3	31.9
%FT	25.0	18.8	21.4		24.0	27.3	25.5

The pace was consistent from half to half. I suspect 34 possessions per half (about 30 - 36 field goal attempts with 5 - 10 offensive rebounds and fewer than five turnovers each half) is Villanova's "preferred pace". The average timespan to run an offensive set (or two) would be about 19 seconds (about 68 possesions in 20 minutes). If the Wildcats follow the pattern described by Ken Pomeroy back in 2009, the earlier in the possession they get a shot off, the higher the efficiency (more likely they are to post points).

Half Time Adjustments
The red highighted stats suggest the Wildcat's offense started slowly. While a 104 offensive efficiency (about 1.04 points per possession) is above the 100 mark, but well below the 110+ efficiency typically posted by Villanova's offense. Half-over-half, the only stepback was offensive rebounding (OR%); the Wildcats dominated the boards early on, but did not contest as successfully, despite Marist's drop off in conversion efficiency in the second half.

Player	%Min	Poss%	Shot%	PPWS	eFG%
Pena, Antonio	57.5	27.1	24.1	0.95	44.4
Yarou, Mouphtaou	50.0	23.5	21.5	1.27	57.1
Wayns, Maalik	72.5	27.5	23.3	1.29	63.6
Fisher, Corey	80.0	22.8	17.3	0.89	27.8
Stokes, Corey	80.0	25.5	19.2	0.80	40.0
Wooten, Russell	2.5	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.0
Cheek, Dominic	55.0	22.0	28.0	1.44	75.0
Sutton, Maurice	55.0	26.0	16.8	1.43	50.0
Armwood, Isaiah	47.5	14.7	9.7	0.67	33.3

The seniors did not log 90% of the available minutes at their positions, a good sign. Fisher, Stokes and Pena would be worn out by March.

Notes & Observations
1. The striking stat is possession rate (Poss% above). Note how virtually everyone who logged playing time 50.0% and above logged Possessions in the 20% range. Pena, Wayns and Stokes were "Major Contributors", while the others were all "Significant Contributors". The profile is similar to that developed by Syracuse last season. The offense can be difficult to defend if all five players on the court are nearly equally capable of scoring. Note the shot rates (Shot%) were, like the Poss%, very close.
2. Compare each player's Shot%, eFG% & PPWS above. Pena and Sutton excepted, the players who had problems converting tended to shoot less as well, a good sign. Not shown but worth noting, Fisher, Wayns and Pena logged assist rates above 20%, Fisher's assist rate was 33.0 for this game, well above the rate he posted in the Bucknell game. Pena apparently recognized he had problems and looked for teammates when the defense closed. His rate, 23.7, is comparable to a point guard. Evidence of a well coordinated "helping" offense.
3. Neither Bucknell nor Marist have notably efficient offenses. While the 'Cats were able to hold both well below the 1.0 point per possession threshold, only stronger competition will show how solid the defense can be.

Roster Notes
1. The freshmen (James Bell and JayVaughn Pinkston) continue to be DNP.
2. Fifth year senior Russell Wooten appeared for a minute at the end of the game.

NIT Second Round
Villanova will face Boston University in a second round game on Wednesday at 8:00pm. BU, beat George Washington of the Atlantic-10 Conference 76-67 in their first round game. The Nova/BU winner will advance to the tournament semi-final in Madison Square Garden November 24th. GWU and Marist will face off in the consolation game Wednesday at 5:30pm. Both games Wednesday to be played in the Pavilion.

Bucknell Post Game -- Efficiency

Opening Night
The Wildcats hosted Coach Wright's alma mater Bucknell last night in their first game of the 2010-11 season. The 'Cats were not gracious hosts, as they defeated the Bison 68-52 at the Pavilion on Villanova's campus. The 'Cats tussled with the Bison for most of the first half, building a double digit lead around the 5:00 minute mark. They maintained that distance (but not much more) going into the half with a 12 point lead, 28-16.

Ah, what a difference a year (or so) makes. The ink media beat virtually the entire Villanova blogosphere to press with Bernard Fernandez's "Fisher's 24 leads Villanova over Bucknell". And in case you forgot it was Philadelphia coverage, the phillynews.com editors headlined the story comment section with the question "Do you think Villanova is overrated?" Care to guess whose school's fan commented first? The University site posted their AP wire story, even as Ed '77 over at VUHoops.com slept. Refreshed this morning, Ed posted his recap, with a theme similar to philly.com's Fernandez -- but an attitude far less negative. Justin over at Nova Basketball Report.com checked in with "Bucknell Thoughts" which, true to the title, was more a thought/reaction piece than a straight-up news report/recap. Chris over at The Nova Blog filed last (well, second to last technically) with his reaction piece. And someone needs to get a memo to Fact on Villanova Sports -- THE SEASON STARTED LAST NIGHT!!!

The official website also posted the boxscore, thank heaven. The breakdown by halves

Opponent	Bucknell
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	32.4	31.9	64.2
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	86.5	125.6	105.9		49.4	113.0	81.0
eFG%	44.0	56.3	50.9		28.0	51.6	41.1
TORate	27.8	9.4	18.7		27.8	9.4	18.7
OR%	33.3	38.9	36.1		11.1	22.2	16.7
FTA/FGA	32.0	18.8	24.6		8.0	19.4	14.3
FTM/FGA	24.0	12.5	17.5		8.0	12.9	10.7
ARate	55.6	60.0	58.3		66.7	84.6	78.9
Blk%	0.0	6.3	3.5		4.0	9.7	7.1
Stl%	6.3	0.0	3.2		9.1	3.0	6.1
PPWS	0.97	1.15	1.07		0.62	1.06	0.87
2FG%	33.3	60.0	46.7		28.6	35.0	32.4
3FG%	40.0	35.3	37.0		18.2	54.5	36.4
FT%	75.0	66.7	71.4		100.0	66.7	75.0
%2FG	35.7	45.0	41.2		50.0	38.9	42.3
%3FG	42.9	45.0	44.1		37.5	50.0	46.2
%FT	21.4	10.0	14.7		12.5	11.1	11.5

Half Time Adjustments
First game (first half?) jitters are probably the reason for the inefficient offense (86.5, or about 0.865 points per possesion) which, according to the table above (see red highlight by 2FG% & TO%), seemed attributable to poor inside shooting and turnovers, but the 12 point lead came from Bucknell's inability to convert possessions to points (or some very good defense from Villanova? Check the defensive blocks and steals). Villanova's poor shot efficiency (44.0) was salvaged by two Corey Stokes three point buckets (and one apiece from Cheek and Fisher), otherwise it would have been lower. The second half offensive explosion was good (complements of much improved shooting from Fisher among others), but the step back on defense, allowing the Bison to convert at a 1.13 rate, was a step back, apparently a let up on the perimeter defense (note how Bucknell's three point conversion rate jumped from 18.2 to 54.5, half-over-half). A more competitive first half could have spelled trouble in the second half. Though Bucknell did cut Villanova's cushion to single digits several times around the halfway mark of the second half, seven was the closest they came, and the 'Cats pushed it out to 10 or better with 6:00 to go and never looked back. The distribution of possessions was interesting, especially in light of questions about how involved the front court will be in the offense. By my count about half of the Villanova blogosphere were upset that the guards tried to force the ball into the paint too much, while the half were upset tha the guards did not get the ball to the front court enough...huh?

Player	%Min	Poss%	Shot%	PPWS	eFG%	OR%
Pena, Antonio	77.5	8.9	9.1	1.00	50.0	7.2
Yarou, Mouphtaou	57.5	23.8	15.3	1.02	40.0	9.7
Wayns, Maalik	85.0	42.6	31.0	0.89	40.0	3.3
Fisher, Corey	90.0	29.3	31.2	1.29	62.5	0.0
Stokes, Corey	90.0	19.9	21.4	1.00	50.0	0.0
Cheek, Dominic	57.5	15.6	15.3	1.10	50.0	19.3
Sutton, Maurice	17.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.0
Armwood, Isaiah	25.0	11.2	7.0	2.00	100.0	11.1

The low post anomaly is in part explained when one compares shot and possession numbers for Yarou and Pena. Yarou took a healthy percentage of the available possessions (23.8), but shot poorly and turned the ball over (misdirected entry passes?). Pena by contrast was invisible on the offensive end, though efficient when he got the ball (compare eFG% and turnovers TO% for Pena and Yarou), rebounding excepted. But the possession rate that really jumps out is Wayns'. 41% is off the charts. While as one blogger observed, Wayns turned the ball over a few times, that does not account entirely for his inefficiency. Check out his eFG% (basically a single stat that represents his shot efficiency). Ouch, last night was not his best effort. His assist rate is high (I wonder how many were passes to Fisher and how many of Fisher's assists were to Wayns...), and clearly blunts the negative impact of his turnovers, but he cannot give up one in four of his possessions without a shot night-in and night-out.

			FGA
Player	TO%	Ast%	FTA	DReb%	Blk%	Stl%
Pena, Antonio	0.0	12.0	0.0	21.5	7.6	2.0
Yarou, Mouphtaou	34.2	0.0	40.0	24.2	10.2	0.0
Wayns, Maalik	25.8	39.0	26.7	9.8	0.0	0.0
Fisher, Corey	0.0	22.1	37.5	3.1	0.0	3.5
Stokes, Corey	8.7	11.4	0.0	15.4	0.0	1.7
Cheek, Dominic	0.0	0.0	20.0	9.7	0.0	0.0
Sutton, Maurice	0.0	23.8	0.0	63.5	0.0	0.0
Armwood, Isaiah	55.4	0.0	0.0	22.2	0.0	0.0

Notes & Observations
1. The Wildcats rebounded very well on both sides of the ball, for both halves. On the defensive side five players in particular, Pena, Yarou (expected), Stokes, Sutton and Amrwood all snagged rebounds at a very high rate. Sutton's number is distorted a bit by the relatively small amount of playing time he received. Offensive boards appear to be a strength for Yarou, Cheek and Armwood, though Pena again had a good night under his own basket. Nice to see a guard (Wayns) rebound under the offensive glass as well.
2. The seniors logged the most minutes, as one would expect. The magnitude however was a bit surprising as the Coreys pulled down 90% of the minutes and Tone took next most with 77.5%, large chunks indeed. The degree to which the freshmen Bell and Pinkston represented the "depth" of the squad was not obvious to me until I saw these playing time numbers. From the percentages, it is clear the "low post" rotation is comprised of Yarou (starter) with Sutton and Armwood available. Sutton drew more minutes than Armwood, and I suspect Armwood played more out of the paint (a #4) with either Pena (or Sutton/Yarou) shifting inside of him.
3. The backcourt/wing rotation was (again) pretty obviously the starters -- Fish, Wayns and Stokes -- with Cheek picking up minutes left by those three, plus some from front court players. This is probably the mix the fans will see this season, though I doubt the Coreys will consistently draw that much court time. They would be spent by mid February.

Roster Notes
1. Freshmen James Bell and JayVaughn Pinkston were DNP. Bell continues to rehabilitate from leg fractures, while Pinkston has a disciplinary matter to resolve. Hopefully both will address their problems directly and be back 100% in the near future.

2010-11 Preview -- Villanova Wildcats

Too Busy for the Details?
The 2010 season started off with a bang. Taking the Puerto Rico Tip-Off even after abruptly sending freshman Mouphtaou Yarou home for an eight week treatment, losing a single out of conference game to eventual A-10 champion (and Big 5 rival) Temple suggested great things were in store when the conference schedule was underway. The 'Cats ran out to a 20-1 (9-0 conference) record and a #2 ranking in the polls before the wheels fell off the wagon. A 4-6 finish and second round exit has not dampened the Nova Nation's enthusiasm for 2011. Will 2011 be the bounce back season, or another not-quite-there effort? The squad seems to be on the same page, and ready to prove 2010 was a fluke and not a trend.  Prognosis -- A 1st quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2011	2010	2009
%Min	66.0	63.1	90.6
%Pts	51.6	79.6	89.5
%FGM	63.5	57.1	89.6
%3FGM	50.8	81.4	86.0
%OReb	72.7	38.4	86.1
%DReb	65.9	50.7	90.9
%TReb	68.1	46.7	89.3

Though not quite the rebuilding job Coach Wright faced last fall, when the Coach had to replace all but one member of the front court rotation, the Wildcats will have to replace quite a few points (note the 14% difference between returning minutes and returning points). Don't let the (relatively) high rebounding percentages fool you, this season's squad will have to better last season's squad to control the boards as the class of 2009 had.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2009-10		2008-09		2007-08
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
BE Off Eff	112.3	3	110.0	3	100.3	12
BE Def Eff	103.9	8	101.0	4	100.2	5
BE Off eFG%	53.5	3	51.9	6	46.7	13
BE OReb%	37.0	T5	35.4	7	34.6	5
BE Off FTRate	34.5	2	44.9	1	37.4	8
BE Def eFG%	47.7	3	49.5	10	49.9	9
BE Def TOv%	20.3	4	21.8	2	22.8	2
BE DReb%	33.5	6	32.8	7	32.8	8
BE Def FTRate	53.0	16	39.7	13	51.4	16

The defensive numbers are more interesting going into this season because despite mediocre shot defense (see BE Def Eff and BE Def eFG% above, focus on conference rankings for a moment) the Wildcats nevertheless were a "first quartile" (or near first quartile) defensive unit. Until 2010. The strong improvement in shot defense was overlooked as Villanova's defensive efficiency dropped down to "mid conference" level. Strange right? The theories abounded in the 2011 previews. John Gasaway decried (follow on to his blog post during last season) the high foul rate, a subject he returned to in his preview in the 2011 College Basketball Prospectus (available now -- click on the link -- and a very good read), while Dan Hanner looks to defensive rebounding (in his conference preview) to explain the decline. Dan and the Wonk are certainly have good points to make, but defensive rebounding (by rank) actually improved last season and fouling on the defensive side of the ball has been a marker for Villanova defense (as many Rivals board posters have noted) for a number of years now. Compare the foul rate from 2008 to that of 2010...about the same. The Wildcats have to cut down on the fouling, but if we consider the foul rate difference (Off FTRate - Def FTRate), the fouling problem of 2010 becomes a bit clearer...

	2010	2009	2008
Off FTRate	34.5	44.9	37.4
Def FTRate	53.0	39.7	51.4
FTRate Diff	-18.8	5.2	-14.0

The FTRate difference was (only?) slightly worse than that of 2008, but the 2008 squad, even with poorer shot defense and defensive rebounding, had a (slightly) stronger defensive ranking than the 2010 squad. The difference? Turnover rates and that difference (an admittedly hastily assembled metric that only crudely measures the advantage given opponents). Turnover rates have declined across D1 last season, even as shot defense improved.

One of the less explored topics in the Big East is the increase in offensive rebounding. Not only does it offset bad shooting (compare Villanova's offensive offensive efficiency, eFG% and OReb% for 2008 above), but it can provide a bump for offensive efficiency because it "prolongs" the team's possession. Georgetown lived on good shooting but great offensive rebounding during Roy Hibbert's playing days.

The bounce-back pattern noted from 2008 to 2009 is promising as it could occur again in 2011.

	For the Record...
	2009-10			2008-09			2007-08
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	25	8	0.758	30	8	0.789	22	13	0.629
Big East	13	5	0.722	13	5	0.722	9	9	0.500
Post Season?	NCAA Rnd #2			NCAA Rnd #5			NCAA Rnd #3

The Wildcats' Nucleus
Coach Jay Wright will have a squad balanced in experience between his front court and back court, as the first fall practices give way to the regular season. There are a lot of points to replace, but at least three of the returning players, Cheek, Pena and Yarou are poised to "grow" into a "Significant Contributor" role with the squad. Wayns and Fisher are poised to grow into "Go-to Guy" (dominant) roles on offense. Providing the staff with many possibilities for where those points (and more) will come from. If the 2010 squad did not deliver rebounding in quite the volume as 2009, at least there are more returning players who should be better with experience.

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
Corey Fisher	67.1	116.2	24.2	22.8	51.0	3.1	1.15	58.0
Corey Stokes	62.5	117.7	15.8	19.4	54.0	5.5	1.15	23.1
Antonio Pena	61.9	112.3	20.3	18.1	57.7	10.4	1.22	61.4
Maalik Wayns	37.2	102.8	23.3	24.0	48.3	2.3	1.09	40.0
Dominic Cheek	33.5	109.9	18.2	19.5	50.4	10.0	1.07	40.6
Isaiah Armwood	24.1	102.6	11.8	11.2	48.1	8.2	1.02	47.2
Mouphtaou Yarou	23.7	109.3	16.3	12.9	58.3	12.7	1.23	56.7
Maurice Sutton	20.1	83.1	13.9	10.4	41.5	12.0	0.89	53.7

Reviewing the numbers for Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes and Antonio Pena, it appears that Fisher may have little room for (usage) "growth" without a serious decline in his efficiency (ORtg). The Poss% ceiling for Pena may be somewhere around 25% (think a Cunningham-like role in the offense), while Stokes could grow into a consistent third option (Poss% around 20%) is possible, but little beyond that level. . The Basketball Prospectus acknowledged when assessing returning squad members, it undervalued those players who contributed were only modest minutes (Min% < 40%) to the game. Of the sophomore class, no question that Maalik Wayns, tabbed by Luke Winn as break out candidate, will definitely "grow" in the offense. Others have identified Dom Cheek as another breakout, but considering a 95% confidence interval, will probably grow to a "Major Contributor"-level role. He could be a strong second option on offense, especially if, when combined with Stokes, he hits from the outside. As an inside threat, projecting Mouphtaou Yarou as a budding star is probably a year off. The key for Mouph will be how much growth the fans see this season. If Mouph can get his Poss% rate up to about 20%+, he will be in good shape for 2012. Right now his upside is rebounding and shot blocking. Inside scoring will come Pena and guard penetration. A best scenario for Isaiah Armwood and Maurice Sutton would be usage growth to about 16-18% this season, which would position them nicely for another jump in 2012. If the 'Cats are going to gain dominance on the boards again this season, Armwood and Sutton (and Yarou and Pena) will have to step up.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Corey Fisher	67.1	8.7	27.5	17.3	0.8	2.6
Corey Stokes	62.5	11.8	6.1	14.6	2.0	1.4
Antonio Pena	61.9	21.0	7.5	20.4	2.3	2.2
Maalik Wayns	37.2	8.7	16.2	21.4	0.2	2.3
Dominic Cheek	33.5	10.9	5.8	14.9	2.1	1.6
Isaiah Armwood	24.1	13.4	3.1	18.9	4.0	2.2
Mouphtaou Yarou	23.7	14.7	6.7	25.6	7.8	0.9
Maurice Sutton	20.1	12.8	1.8	31.0	10.9	0.8

Significant Additions
The significance of the newcomers may be understood in time, but neither James Bell, a 6-5, 225 pound guard/forward born in Plainfield, NJ and raised in Orlando, Florida, and 6-7, 235 pound 'tweener Jayvaughn Pinkston, an alum of Curtis Sumpter's high school, Bishop Laughlin, in New York City, is considered a Top 10 recruit. Bell verballed in the summer of 2008, before he hit the recruiting radar. Fast and athletic, especially dangerous in transition, Bell is projected as a #3. A series of stress fractures in both legs have sidelined the freshman. Medical red shirt this season is a distinct possibility. Pinkston, New York State's McDonald's All-American used his strength to dominate in the low post for Bishop Loughlin. Pinkston should be able to contribute with rebounding and defensive duties early, but will most likely need to develop consistency in his shooting range, to contribute carve a playing role larger than spot minutes.

Explode If...
1. Fisher can dominate and be efficient. But Corey alone cannot push the 'Cats to the highest spot in the conference. Pena and Stokes will have to become even more efficient (and assertive in the offense). But one of the sophomores will have to have a breakout as well.
2. Get the defensive fouls under control. Gasaway's analysis has value. If his assertion that fouls cost the Wildcats points and ultimately games is a bit obvious, the underlying notion, that (late game possession fouls aside) excessive fouling benched needed players and allowed teams that should have had difficulty staying with the 'Cats to stick around.
3. Reestablish defensive dominance. Maintain shot defense while forcing turnovers (and getting rebounding under control). Had Villanova had the 2009 defense with the 2010 offense, they would have logged their second Final Four last April.

Implode If...
1. Team chemistry gets out of hand. There has been a good deal of speculation about how well last season's squad got along. The common wisdom suggests that everyone does not have to be bffs, but the key to great teams is that the players enjoy their time together and care about each other. Locker room drama is a rankings killer.
2. Improvement requires concentration and focus. Off court distractions are a momentum killer. The latest incident will not sabotage the season, but when considered as the latest in a string of embarrassing moments over the past two-plus seassons, a pattern of distracting incidents that can wear out a squad.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
The out of conference (OOC) schedule features (guaranteed) tilts with Top 25 (and Big 5 rival) Temple and Maryland, projected to finish in the middle of the ACC. The Big 5 series produces at least one scare per season for the Wildcats as a reminder that the national ratings can matter little in a local rivalry. The NIT Tip-Off (should Villanova survive pod play) offers at least one RPI booster in the field (Tennessee, UCLA) that gets to New York City.

The Wildcats drew Rutgers, Pittsburgh and Syracuse as mirrors. According to most projections, that means the 'Cats get two First Quartile opponents (and some relief from Rutgers). A 4-2 (or better) from that trio would be encouraging. 3-3 or worse would suggest the 'Cats will struggle this season, and projections from the Basketball Prospectus (12-4 and a fourth place finish) would be more accurate. The 2010 Big East schedule was back-loaded with most of the more challenging opponents lined up for the last three-plus weeks of the season. This season will be similar, as January's most challenging sequence will come near the end of the month with a six game run that starts after the Maryland game (1/15) and sees the Wildcats take three games in a row on the road (Connecticut on 1/17, Syracuse on 1/22 and Providence on 1/26) followed by a three game "Murder's Row" homestand that brings in Georgetown on 1/29, Marquette on 2/2 and West Virginia on 2/5. Villanova should be 4-0 (no worse than 3-1) going into those six games, and should emerge no worse than 9-1/8-2 to have a good chance to finish in the top 2/3 in conference. The last half (minus one) portion of the confernce schedule matches the 'Cats with Pittsburgh (home on 2/12 and on the road 3/5), Seton Hall (road 2/15), Syracuse (home 2/21), St. John's (home 2/26) and Notre Dame (road 2/28). The two game, season-ending road trip (Notre Dame and Pittsburgh) could be especially brutal should the Wildcats be riding a 4-4 record going in. Best case through the last eight games should be a 6-2/7-1 record.