Showing posts with label North Carolina State. Show all posts
Showing posts with label North Carolina State. Show all posts

Saturday, November 26, 2011

The 2011 Legends Classic -- 4 Takaways

After I Got a Few Hours' Sleep Between Monday and Wednesday...
After blogging the Legends Classic Saturday and Monday night, I drove home to write the recap for RTC, sleep for an hour or two before embarking on a 24 hour juggling marathon of personal, professional and avocational responsibilities. Having an hour to actually sit and think...would probably put me to sleep. So before I think too long...

1. Entertaining & Exciting != High Quality & Excellent -- The fans who came out (mostly attached to the schools, which is a shame, these were very entertaining games) were treated to a four game set that included an overtime period between Oregon State and Texas Saturday, necessitated by an Oregon State make on the next-to-last possession of regulation (O State had not held the lead for more than one possession for the previous 32 mintues). Jared Cunningham sank two free throws to force the overtime period. Two other games featured the possible win or tie by the team holding the ball at the end of regulation. Nerve wracking for the winners and very exciting for those who came out to watch. The fourth game, by the way, was decided by seven points (three possessions), saw five lead changes and a tie in the last six minutes of play...hardly a snooze. So why does exciting not always equal excellent? The four games averaged 42.5 fouls (that is 21 fouls per team) and 35.8 turnovers (or nearly 18 per team per game). Each game seemed to have several stretches where both teams turned the ball over on successive possessions, leading to several sequences where the ball would change hands four-to-six times with teams exchanging "one-and-done" possessions, or possibly not taking a shot at all. Television timeouts, which seemed to stretch innocuous fouls into 2-3 minute huddle sessions, brought several promising runs to a screeching halt which fatally disrupted any attempts at a game flow. But the runs, taken by all four teams at various times, coupled with some impressive individual performances and wild end-of-regulation play sequences were strong redeeming qualities. Yes I'd do this again. In a heartbeat.


NC State's Richard Howell dunks
at the end of a run out
in State's loss to Vanderbilt


2. Vanderbilt Can Win Without Festus Ezeli (or Even Johnny Jenkins?!). Oregon State Cannot Without Jared Cunningham -- Coach Kevin Stallings put speculation about the impact of no Ezeli to bed quickly, and the subject of the post game interviews refocused on how Vanderbilt played rather than how they would have played. The Commodores downed two good -- not great -- teams from power conferences. Teams expected to finish in the upper division of their respective conferences, though not to seriously challenge for the top spots in their respective conferences. Given the competition, that Vanderbilt won both games speaks well for the Commodores' depth and poise. They bested middling teams from other power conferences without their starting center who was the team's #3 scorer and #2 rebounder (#1 offensive rebounder) speaks to the talent level that is now available. That is the basic talent level that will sustain them through SEC play. Ezeli, when he rehabilitates and rejoins the squad, will most likely make a difference as to whether the 'Dores finish #5 or #3 (or higher...) this season. His absence will not determine whether the squad has a winning or losing season. Opposing coaches spoke of Vanderbilt's experience in post game pressers, but invariably they mentioned senior wing Jeffrey Taylor, before junior guard John Jenkins, the leading SEC scorer last season.

Can the same be said for Oregon State? Coach Craig Robinson asserted to the assembled press that his team "...have quite a bit of character...", and "...[Jared Cunningham]'s a marked man now. We expect Jared to understand that help [his teammates] get involved...he affects the game even when he is not scoring 35 points a game...". While forward Devon Collier and pg Ahme Starks led the scoring against Vanderbilt, the Beavers' scoring is largely in those three teammates' hands. Though he had seven steals, the Beavers needed more than nine points from the junior off guard against Vanderbilt. Cunningham will need to post more than nine points per game to boost the Beaver's chances in Pac-12 play.


Starks (#3) & Collier (#44) are not enough
if the Beavers are to finish
in the Pac-12's top 3


3. Should Coach Barnes Test His Team for ADHD? -- Counting the two halves of each game separately, Texas "lost" the last four minutes three out of four times (four out of five if you count the Oregon State overtime Saturday). What happened? In the first half of their semi-final versus Oregon State, the Long Horns had just outscored the Beavers 14-7 from the 7:59 mark to the 4:00 mark. From there to the end of the half however the Horns managed eight points on eight possessions, for a 1.00 points per possession rate. The Beavers scored 10 point in eight possessions, good for a 1.25 ppp. Though the Horns retained a five point edge going into the intermission, they had Beavers on the ropes at the 4:00 minute mark, and let them go. The second half of Saturday's game followed a pattern similar to the first half, the Horns again established an edge going into the last four minutes (complements of a 13-6 scoring edge from the 11:50-4:00 mark), but lost focus again, scoring six points in their last eight possessions (0.75 ppp) to Oregon State's 12 points over eight possessions (1.50 ppp). The Horns shot 3-9 from the floor and 9-12 from the line in those two four minute slices, with no assists. Coach Robinson's squad shot 6-14 (with six assists) and 7-8 from the line.

Monday night's Consolation Game with North Carolina State had a similar pattern emerge with respect to "the last four", at least in the first half. Up by 13 at the 4:00 minute mark, the Horns scored their last five points in the half using six possessions (0.83 ppp), shooting 1-6 from the field with a single assist and 2-4 from the line.


NC State Coach Mark Gottfried can only watch
as Texas center Alexis Wangmene stuffs a putback
in first half of the Consolation Game


The Wolfpack scored eight points on seven possessions (1.14 ppp) on 1-2 shooting from the field (on an assist) and 5-6 from the line. Coach Barnes identified fouling as one of the areas the staff had to continue to address with the young team. J'Covan Brown's technical (and fifth foul) as a reaction to his fourth foul became a central theme in the post game presser. Coach Rick Barnes, reflecting on Brown offered "...That's where he gotta grow up. He's been in the program for three years and he's at different role now where these guys are looking for a lot from him...and he just can't do that. This has happened too much and sooner or later he's going to have to figure out that's what's going to keep him from where he wants to be and more importantly, it's a team game, and...he's got to realize it is not about him, there's more to it than scoring points...there's a lot that goes into being a part of a basketball team" Speaking with that gentle Southeastern drawl that tends to soothe the untrained Yankee ear, the coach continued "...he's come a long way...but he's, he ought to have it figured out by now...". In response to a later question about the impact of the technical on the team, Barnes responded "...I'm concerned for J'Covan. We're going to be fine. We've got enough guys who will work...the concerning part is for him. He's a junior, he's been here long enough and he ought to know...but for the team, if he doesn't do what he needs to do we'll move without him. We don't want to do that...everyone likes him...he's worked harder than he's ever worked in his life...but there's more to it...there's a mental side to it; there's a team component side to it...". Acknowledging that the technical "put them back on their heels..." was a mild statement.


Texas Coach Rick Barnes responded
to reporters' questions
but did he have any answers?


Leading 65-52 when Brown was T'ed up, the Horns could score only nine points on their last 16 possessions of the game (0.56 ppp), going 2-12 (no assists) from the field and 5-7 from the line. The Wolfpack scored 21 points on their last 16 possessions (1.56 ppp), converting 6-9 (four assists) from the field to go with 7-11 from the line.


Missing Saturday's semi-final with a rolled ankle
Wolfpack forward Scott Wood
provided outside scoring to complement State's inside game


4. Three For the Post Season? -- I left the 2010 Legends convinced that three of the four teams would play in the post season somewhere (in a tournament that starts with an "N"). Three did, though I was surprised at the details. I am not sure if three of the four teams I saw Saturday and Monday will go to the post season this time. Tournament winner Vanderbilt is the easy pick, assuming they do not hit anymore "Ezeli Bumps" (see Notre Dame's Tim Abromaitis), but which among the others will draw a bid? If Oregon State, the other finalist Monday does finish in the top 3/4 of the Pac-12 they will probably be tabbed. The win over Texas would help if there is any doubt, but Jared Cunningham has to show up. The Texas squad was not impressive, especially in the second loss to North Carolina State. But then neither was Michigan last season, and the Wolverines managed a bid as Coach Beilein's squad did mature and gel as the season progressed. North Carolina State did not impress in their semi-final game with Vanderbilt, but C. J. Leslie was back for his first game and Scott Wood was a DNP. The wing was solid, even on a shaky ankle, in the Wolfpack's win over Texas. And Leslie looked more comfortable than in his first game. Project (by Ken Pomeroy subscription) to tie for sixth in the Atlantic Coast Conference this season, North Carolina has an experienced squad. With Mark Gottfried at the helm and a staff that includes Bobby Lutz and Rob Moxley, the Wolfpack is better prepared to succeed than any of the past five years.


Texas freshman guard
Sterling Gibbs (#13) saw action in
the Consolation Game Monday


Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani -- Legends Classic

by Ray Floriani

East Rutherford, NJ - The attendance on both nights of the Ticketcity Legends Classic was, to put it politely, sparse. Too bad. There were four close games that got sloppy at times, remember it is not even Thanksgiving, but were not short on excitement coming down to the wire.


outside the Izod Center

The Scores:

Semifinal Games...
Vanderbilt86 79North Carolina State
Oregon State100 95Texas


Consolation Game...
North Carolina St.77 74Texas


Championship Game...
Vanderbilt64 62Oregon St.

We will look at the final evening's consolation and championship games from the Izod Center.

The possessions and efficiency:

Off.
Poss.Eff.
Texas67111
North Carolina St.68113

For the second straight night the Longhorns showed an efficiency that should win you a basketball game. But came up short. Unfortunately that was the case in each of Texas' games here. On Saturday they posted a gaudy 117 OE only to generously allow a 127 OE to Oregon State in that overtime affair. Both teams shot the ball well (Texas 52% eFG, NC State 50%) and cared for the ball rather well. Texas had a 19% TO rate while the Wolfpack of the ACC came in at 16%. Both numbers are what you would love to have in March, and are ecstatic about in November. Achilles heel for Texas, and it was noted by coach Rick Barnes, was the persistent fouling. NC State had an off the chart 75% FT rate. They shot 33 of 44 from the line.

NC state came back from 18 points down. They made the decisive run the latter part of the second half after Texas' J'Covan Brown fouled out. With the Texas lead guard exiled on fouls, the Longhorns were a different team. And one who could not hold off the surging Wolfpack.

Leading scorers:

Manley
PointsEfficiency
CJ Leslie, NCSU1713
Sparked Wolfpack off the bench each game
J'Covan Brown, Texas1717
Shot 7-14, 1 turnover & 7 assists


Championship Game

Off.
Poss.Eff.
Vanderbilt6993
Oregon State State7187

Resilience was the key. Vanderbilt by as much as nine but in a game with nine ties and lead changes, Oregon State was determined not to go away. The decision was sealed in the final seconds on a jumper by Vanderbilt's Brad Tinsley. Chalk it up to Oregon State's persistence coupled with Vanderbilt's 'bull in a china shop' care of the basketball. The Commodores were guilty of 22 turnovers, translated, a ridiculously high 32% TO rate. Oregon State wasn't much better with a 24% TO mark. The SEC representatives also outshot Oregon State from the field with a 54-45% eFG mark. In a one possession outcome that is a big factor.

John Jenkins' 14 points for Vanderbilt, included a huge three pointer in the stretch. Jared Cunningham of Oregon State, entered the game with a 26 ppg scoring average, was held to nine points but did have seven steals.

Vanderbilt is a very good club at this juncture. One would be safe to assume, they will be even better when 6-11 Festus Ezeli returns from a knee injury and rejoins the Commodores in a few weeks.

Leading Scorers:

Manley
PointsEfficiency
Devon Collier, Oregon St1925
John Jenkins, Vanderbilt146



Upper press view of the Izod Center court

Jenkins' Manley number was affected by 5 of 13 shooting from the field, no assists and three turnovers. Make no mistake though, Jenkins' came up big both nights for coach Kevin Stallings and Vanderbilt.


Official Jim Burr and Vanderbilt coach Kevin Stallings
share a lighter moment



MVPJohn Jenkins, Vanderbilt
All Tournament Team:C.J. Leslie North Carolina St.
Sheldon McClellan, Texas
Jared Cunningham, Oregon St.
Jeffrey Taylor, Vanderbilt



Vanderbilt raises the championship trophy



And Then There is...
--   Good officiating friend Guy Pagano, who lives in Northern New Jersey, worked the final with Jim Burr and Mike Stephens.

--   Had the pleasure of meeting and chatting with one of the tempo-free 'Gods', John Gasaway. John was covering with Basketball Prospectus colleague Andrew Cannon.

Saturday, November 19, 2011

A Look at the Legends Classic

Breaking Out the log5...
I noticed Ken Pomeroy ran a few log5 calculations for destination invitationals running this weekend. The four teams competing in the Legends Championship Bracket this weekend were not included, so I decided to run the numbers and see who is favored. Note, the log5 calculation is an exercise in conditional probability, not a Nostradamus-inpired quatrain. log5 measures probabilities of a set of outcomes relative to each other, and should not, therefore, be taken as an absolute prediction of the future...but hey, it's fun and I am going to be doing a live blog for Rush the Court, so this is a good preparation for the double header (Vanderbilt vs. North Carolina State at 6:30, followed by Texas vs. Oregon State at about 8:30) on Saturday night and the playoff round (winners vs. winners, losers vs. losers) on Monday night.

FinalChamp
Texas78.820.8
Vanderbilt67.518.1
No. Carolina State32.52.2
Oregon State21.20.03

Though Vanderbilt is the only ranked team (#20 in the Coaches Poll) in the field, Texas, by virtue of the easier semi final opponent, gets a slight nod in the final. Counter intuitive no doubt, but with the NCAA-mandated seven game suspension of Vandy's 6-11 scoring and rebounding machine Festus Ezeli, the Long Horns might be the favored choice...on potential anyway.

How They Got Here (Secaucus, New Jersey)
Though some (mostly birds migrating North in the spring and South in the fall...) might believe the Meadowlands of New Jersey is an exotic destination, the Legends is not a "destination" tournament like the Old Spice Classic or Paradise Jam. Each team headed to the IZOD Center for Saturday's showdown hosted two teams in preliminary play. Unlike the NIT Tip-Off however, the host, who may not be a preliminary round winner, advances to the Championship Bracket in Secaucus.

Texas breezed by Boston University 82-46 on 11/13, then down Rhode Island by 10, 100-90, on 11/15. Vanderbilt lost their first preliminary round game, 58-71, to Cleveland State on 11/13, but beat Bucknell 80-68, on 11/15. North Carolina State hammered Morehead State 91-61 on 11/13, then squeaked by Princeton 61-58 on 11/14. The last team in the Championship bracket, Oregon State, barely broke a sweat disposing of Division II West Alabama, 93-60, then faced a slightly tougher test as they downed Hofstra by 10, 82-72 on 11/16.

Vanderbilt versus North Carolina State
The Commodores bring a junior and senior dominated squad to the IZOD. Even with Ezeli sidelined, the 'Dores will start five upperclassmen, starting with senior point guard Brad Tinsley and SEC scoring champion John Jenkins in the back court. Senior Jeffrey Taylor will start at the wing, while seniors (and New Jersey native) Lance Goulbourne and Steve Tchiengang will start as duel forwards. Stallings has used between 10 and 12 players in each of the Commodores' first three games, though he felt the reserves were effective only in Vandy's last game (versus Bucknell). First year (at Raleigh) coach Mark Gottfried will counter with experienced starters, CJ Leslie's NCAA-mandated suspension should be completed by the Vanderbilt game. If he does not start at the #3/#4 he will come off the bench pretty quickly. Sophomore Lorenzo Brown will start at the point with freshman CJ Williams at the #2. The front court spots will be filled by junior Scott Wood, with two of Richard Howell, Leslie, DeShawn Painter or Jordan Vendenberg, the last two considered legitimate centers. Though Gottfried emptied the bench in the Wolfpack's only blowout (a 30 point win over Morehead State), he seems more comfortable with his first eight-to-nine players.

Texas versus Oregon State
The Long Horns lost their entire starting lineup in the off season, but Coach Rick Barnes has earned his reputation as one of the Big 12's strongest recruiters. Barnes has junior J'Coven Brown, a McDonald's All American as a high schooler, available to start this season. Senior Alexis Wangmene has started twice at the $4/#5, with three of his prized freshmen, Jon Holmes, Myck Kabongo and Julien Lewis starting and giving the Horns a three guard/two forward lineup. Barnes used a nine and ten man rotation in Texas' two games, suggesting that a few more members of his seven man freshman class (Sterling Gibbs, Sheldon McClellan and Jaylen Bond) will get regular minutes for the time being. Barnes has also called senior Clint Chapman's number often. Coach Craig Robinson has settled into his starting five, starting with Jared Cunningham at the off guard and Ahmed Starks at the point. Both Cunningham and Starks have 1-2 years of experience. Juniors Joe Barton and Angus Brandt will hold down the #4/#5 spots, with sophomore Devon Collier at the #3. Kevin McShane (senior forward), Roberto Nelson (sophomore guard), Calle Barton (true freshman, guard) and Eric Moreland (red shirt freshman, forward) saw minutes in each Oregon State's games so far.

The View From Here
Expect Vandy and Texas to meet in the finals Monday, with the States, North Carolina and Oregon to meet in the consolation game. Of the underdogs, Gottfried's Wolfpack might have the better shot at an upset, as Vandy has a habit of unexpectedly freezing up on occasion. CJ Leslie might be the unknown factor Saturday, but the 'Dores are very deep and experienced, with or without Ezeli. I will be running a live blog courtside for Rush the Court, starting around 6:30 Saturday night. Drop by for a courtside perspective if you have the time.

Friday, June 17, 2011

Coaching Carousal: Part 2011-04: Effects, Hits, Misses & Numbers

Effects -- Butterfly, Ripple or Domino?
When Villanova's Assistant Coach Chris Walker accepted a similar position on Billy Gillispie's Texas Tech staff back in April (announced formally only last week) Villanova Coach Jay Wright seized the opportunity to reorganize his staff. Though the process took just under two months and affected three coaches and two positions, Coach Wright's first step, completed in just over two weeks brought Navy Head Coach Billy Lange back to the Mainline as an Associate Head Coach. Lange, in his second stint on Coach Wright's staff, has taken an increasingly well-traveled road of head coach in a non-BCS program to assistant in a BCS program, the second to do so this off season alone. Lange's exit triggered a three job shift among D1 head coaching positions Villanova (Assoc. HC) <-- (Lange) Navy (HC) <-- (DeChellis) Penn State (HC) <-- (Chambers)Boston University (HC) <-- ?. The shift was unusual for the timing, coming so late in the cycle, but even more so for the number of head coaching positions opened, initiated by a head coach-to-assistant shift. Last season the Patriot League was ranked 24th of 32 D1 conferences by by Ken Pomeroy, the level where one would expect a coach to be named from a pool of assistant/associate coaches, rather than BCS-level head coaches. The circumstances of DeChellis' situation in Happy Valley played a large role in his decision to take a pay cut and change jobs. Clearly this was not the Butterfly Effect at work. Juwan Staten was slated to transfer from Dayton to Penn State prior to DeChellis' move, but instead signed with West Virginia, is an example of the Butterfly Effect (especially if he hits a shot that eliminates Villanova from the 2013 BET for example). The quick movement diagram (above) illustrates the moves as a chain reaction that typifies the Domino Effect, but given the number of coaches associated with the Philadelphia coaching fraternity, I would also suggest there was a Ripple Effect involved. Would Pat Chambers considered a BCS-level job this late in the cycle had it been located in Washington state? Would Penn State have looked at Chambers if Happy Valley were located in upper Minnesota? The influence exerted by the six D1 coaches coaches at Philadelphia schools (Drexel, La Salle, Penn, Saint Joseph's, Temple and Villanova) extends beyond the Delaware Valley and the state of Pennsylvania (to Madison, Wisconsin actually).

Hits & Misses?
The ACC saw an unusually high (four) number of vacancies this off season, 50% of the attrition can be attributed to terminations at Georgia Tech (Paul Hewitt) and North Carolina State (Sidney Lowe). Both coaches were on the hot seat going into the 2011 season. Interestingly, feedback about Paul Hewitt's and Sidney Lowe's replacements (Brian Gregory and Mark Gottfried repsectively) is (charitably at best) mixed. By general knowledge, Georgia Tech, with a large buyout on Hewitt's contract and huge capital expenses (facilities related) looming, may have been reluctant to go after a namebrand coach. North Carolina State AD Debbie Yow apparently believed a whispering campaign limited her pool of available replacements after she fired five year veteran Sidney Lowe, making Mark Gottfried, himself fired (in mid-season no less) from his last job (Alabama), the most attractive of the available candidates. She seemed to conveniently forget that the Wolfpack faithful practically ran off Lowe's predessessor Herb Sendak, and after a very public search marked by an embarrassing series of courtships and rejections, then AD Lee Fowler settled on Sidney Lowe, an NCSU graduate who was unable to translate consistently good recruiting into an NCAA bid in any of his five seasons at State. Sendak, with less attractive recruits, managed an NCAA bid in each of his last five seasons in Raleigh. Do the numbers support or contradict media perceptions that Gregory and Gottfried were basically misses? I dusted off Dan Hanner's Average Efficiency Margin method to compare the ex-coach and his successor...

Average Adj.
Coach/Team/YrOffenseDefenseDiff.
P. Hewitt, Ga Tech/2004-2011109.191.4+17.7
B. Gregory, Dayton/2004-2011104.794.7+10.0

Those seeking an explanation for Tech's selection of Gregory -- beyond expense -- cannot look to an efficiency margin better than Hewitt's. Though Dayton's ex-coach boasts a positive double digit margin through his last seven seasons, it is well off (see above) Paul Hewitt's efficiency margin (in fact Hewitt's efficiency margin was better -- by 8.4 points per 100 possessions -- than Jim Larranaga, the GMU Coach whose move to Miami created the opening at George Mason). Fans at both Georgia Tech and Dayton shared a similar view of their respective former coaches -- good recruiters who seemed to do less with more. Hopefully each will find greater acceptance (and success) at their next stop.

Though Coach Gottfried had a ten year run in Tuscaloosa, Ken Pomeroy provides data for only six of those years (2003-08). I decided to compare the last five years of Lowe's and Gottfried's tenure at their respective schools. Though Lowe never made the NCAA tournament, Gottfried did in three of his last five years at Alabama (2003 -- Elite Eight, 2004 -- Round of 32, 2005 -- first round)...

Average Adj.
Coach/Team/YrOffenseDefenseDiff.
S. Lowe, NCSU/2007-11109.798.1+11.7
M. Gottfried, Alabama/2004-08115.596.0+19.5

Gottfried might be the D1 coaching equivalent of Wally Pipp. The Crimson Tide of 2007 and 2008 had slumped from the high-water mark of 2003, the circumstances of Gottfried's "resignation" and the enthrusiasm surrounding Anthony Grant's early success have certainly combined to allow the Crimson Tide faithful to quickly forget about Gottfried's accomplishments. Being the third of three schools in the Research Triangle will be a challenge, but the circumstances at North Carolina State (public institution, football-centric) are similar to those at Alabama. Gottfried should do well there.

Radford Selects Jones, Boston University is on the Clock...
Despite speculation that focused on several former head coaches, the search to replace Brad Greenburg at Radford University settled quickly on the usual suspects -- assistant coaches from higher-level conferences within the region. 27 days into the search, Athletic Director Robert Lineburg introduced Mike Jones, an assistant coach at Virginia Commonwealth University out of the Colonial Athletic Association (CAA) as Radford's sixth Division 1 men's basketball coach.

Despite assertions that Boston University's search for Chamber's replacement would only take days, the process is now two weeks old with interim head coach Brian Daly (Assistant Coach under Chambers), announced June 3, holding down the fort. The post-Chambers press announcement candidate pool was an eclectic mix of ex-head coaches (Al Skinner), high-ranking assistant/associate head coaches (Mike Jarvis II & Orlando Vandross -- both of whom deny being contacted for interviews -- along with media favorite Richard Pitino, son of Louisville head coach and former Terrier head coach, Rick Pitino) and local sports names (Walter McCarty, former Celtic & Louisville assistant coach & former BU player Scott Spinelli) among others. When BU Athletic Director Mike Lynch fired 15 year veteran Dennis Wolff in March of 2009 he hired a search firm and took just under a month (26 days) to select and deliver Pat Chambers. Lynch did not initiate the process this time, did not hire a search firm and named Daly very quickly when Chambers left. Given how late in the cycle the opening was created, I would not be surprised if Daly leads the Terriers through the next season with the interim label attached to his title. Nor would I be surprised if Lynch tabs a head coach in the next week or so. I would be surprised, given Boston University's competitive standing in the American East Conference, if Lynch names a replacement after the start of the July recruiting period.

By the Numbers...
A single vacancy has been created since the last Coaching Carousal post, a bit unusual for me to post so quickly. The Villanova connection was too tempting to pass on however. The ebb and flow to this point...

Vacancies
PeriodDateNo.Pct.
Regular Season*02/26/1123.6%
Conf. Tourn.**03/14/111832.7%
NCAA Tourn.04/07/112341.8%
Spring Sign05/18/11916.4%
Post Spr. SignToday...35.5%
n = 55

* Regular season ending was arbitrary; I used the start of the earliest conference tournaments to mark the transition from regular season to post season play.
** Selection Sunday, March 14 this year, marks the end of conference tournaments & the beginning of post season program evaluations.

Turnover peaked during the NCAA tournament, typical given that most vacancies are initiated by the employer and conference tournaments and the NCAAs (and NIT, CBI, CIT, etc) mark the end of the season for viturally all of the Division 1 programs. 55 vacancies mark 2011 as the third busiest since 2002. Projecting a few more openings is not unreasonable, though the vacancy will be created by exigent circumstances (coaches behaving badly for example), with the AD either conducting a very quick (days, not weeks) search or tabbing an interim. 57? 58? Stay tuned.

Saturday, May 22, 2010

Three Easy Pieces

Reflections on Coaches, by Sports Writers...
Most of that which I read these days is located on the internet. The writing ranges from straight reporting, to gossip (speculation and rumor), to analysis -- which seems to be rarely quantitative and too often laced with commentary. I have not found many good profile pieces, so when I ran across these, I felt a need to share. The approach allows the reader to get a bit closer to the subject, no mean feat considering each subject, celebrated for much of their respective careers, suffered (to varying degrees) a rather public fall from grace, and with that fall, a measure of controversy. Each homage was precipated by a specific event; something served as a catalyst to both motivate each writer to spark his own recollections and weave them into the narrative.

John Feinstein on Jim Valvano
Posted near the end of April on his blog, Feinstein on the Brink, John Feinstein's "Seventeen years later, Jim Valvano’s memory lives on" drew a number of internet comments & post-back links on other sites. I remember Valvano as a young and energetic coach who (literally) exploded onto the D1 stage when his Wolfpack, possibly the first Cinderella story of the NCAA Tournament (that CBS had the opportunity to sell a few ads on). Valvano became a a "good interview" and received a ton of publicity in the ensuing years. Villanova's 1985 win over Georgetown may have eclipsed Valvano's limelight, but as Feinstein suggests, Jimmy V was eager to be regarded as "more than a coach" by that time. Whenever I read about Valvano I cannot help but remember that both he and Mike Krzyzewski took up their ACC coaching jobs in the same year, 1980-81. Coach Valvano returned the Wolfpack to the NCAAs the next season, and won the National Championship the season after. Coach K did not return Duke to the NCAAs until 1984 (lost in the second round), and did not win his first National Championship until the 1990-91 season. Jimmy V built a personna and became a celebrity; Mike Krzyzewski built a program that became a dynasty.

Joe Posnanski on Bob Huggins
A Senior Writer at Sports Illustrated, Posnanski authors the Curiously Long Post blog, and posted "Huggs" near the end of March, about the time the Mountaineers won their regionals and moved on to the Final Four. Posnanski counts himself among those who are not Huggins fans, but penned a very readable and oddly endearing piece about the once controversial coach. West Virginia's run ended (rather badly at that) at the hands of Duke in the National Semi-Finals. Unlike a number of earlier character studies, Posnanski shows little interest in apologizing for Huggins, and strangely that approach makes Huggins a bit more sympathetic to the reader.

Dan Wetzel on Nolan Richardson
Wetzel wrote a loose, memory-laden review of Rus Bradburd's Forty Minutes of Hell: The Extraordinary Life of Nolan Richardson, an overdue look at the career of Arkansas' winningest basketball coach. Francis Schmidt (1923-29, 0.839) and Eddie Sutton (1976-1985, 0.776 -- yes, that Eddie Sutton) may have higher winning percentages, but neither stayed as long (17 years) nor won as many games. Wetzel has authored several books, and his skill is on display again in this book review. Unlike Feinstein and Posnanski, Wetzel moves his personal narrative to the background, allowing Bradburd to take the lead. Richardson, like Huggins (and Valvano?) has been at times a hard person to like. But always one to respect for his achievements. I was happy to hear he was back to coaching, this time in the pros -- the Tulsa Shock of the WBA.