Mia Culpa, Mia Maxima Culpa, 2011

Confessions & Observations...
I am a bit late with the previews this time around. The preseason was pre-empted with news and speculation about team movements among three BCS conferences and two-to-three nonBCS conferences, a process that seemed at times to take all of the oxygen out of the room. An especially distressing development as I was again reminded of the miniscule impact basketball had on the calculus of movement. Time to take a quick review of last season...

	2010-11 Actual					Proj.
Team	W	L	Pct	Seed	Qtl	Qtl
Cincinnati	11	7	0.611	7	2	3
Connecticut	9	9	0.500	9	3	3
DePaul	1	17	0.056	16	4	4
Georgetown	10	8	0.556	8	2	1
Louisville	12	6	0.667	4	1	2
Marquette	9	9	0.500	11	3	2
Notre Dame	14	4	0.778	2	1	3
Pittsburgh	15	3	0.833	1	1	1
Providence	4	14	0.222	14	4	4
Rutgers	5	13	0.278	13	4	4
Seton Hall	7	11	0.389	12	3	3
St. John's	12	6	0.667	5	2	2
South Florida	3	15	0.167	15	4	4
Syracuse	12	6	0.667	4	1	2
Villanova	9	9	0.500	10	3	1
West Virginia	11	7	0.611	6	2	1

Through a Looking Glass Darkly...
Ugh. It was a great season for the conference, as the Big East pulled down 11 invitaitons to the NCAA post season tournament, a record high for a conference, and with 68.8% of the members drawing bids, a record for post season money earned. Too bad the conference struggled in tournament play, moving only Marquette as far as the Sweet Sixteen last March. Though talk throughout the season centered on the notion that 11 bids were possible, I was a bit late to the party. I believed that the teams not invited would have to absorb a large number of losses (to insure most of the conference would have at least a 0.500 record) while those likely to draw the bids would have to split amongst themselves. Insuring the "perfect storm", the balance of Division I would have to relatively poor by comparison. It seems Division I was accomodating (unexpectedly) -- consider Butler, despite an unsteady 3-4 start that included a loss to Evansville, nevertheless ran to a consecutive Final Four, upsetting Pittsburgh before falling to #9 ranked (in conference play) Connecticut in the Championship Game. Within the Big East, sorting out the teams doomed to struggle was far easier than identifying the teams that would succeed.

Misses Mostly...
If I predicted the fourth quartile to the team, I missed pretty badly elsewhere. Of the four teams projected for first quartile finishes (Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Villanova and West Virginia), two (Georgetown and West Virgnia) finished in the second quartile while one (sigh, Villanova) fell all the way to the third quartile. I did manage to identify one second quartile finisher correctly (Cincinnati, though I would not have guessed they would finish higher than Villanova) to go with two third quartile finishers (Connecticut! -- right answer, wrong reason -- and Seton Hall). Notre Dame, a third quartile team in my projection ran to an excellent 14-4 record to finish #2, good for a BET bye seed and first quartile finish. I correctly placed half of the conference (within a quartile), but missed by two quartiles on two teams. Ouch.

What's Next
I decided to revert to a quartile-by-quartile preview, providing thumbnails of each team projected to finish in that specific quartile. The quartile previews will be posted over the course of this week. Other projects took time normally devoted to preparing the team-by-team previews, and I anticipated the addition of Texas Christian would preclude another oppportunity to preview the conference by fourths. Correct answer again, but for the wrong reason.

Signs of the Offseason 2011-08 -- Conference Realignment: Big East Agonistes

We Have All Been Here Before?
New York Times sportswriter Pete Thamel reports that the Big East Presidents will hold a conference call on Monday October 10. This will be the second conference call in three days and the third time in eight days that the Presidents of the 14 remaining schools have huddled over the future of the conference. Thamel suggests the agenda will include raising the exit fee. As reported by VUHoops.com, the fees will settle "...in the 10 million dollar range". Neither VUHoops.com nor Thamel anticipate that any invitations will be acted on during the meeting. Denver Post sportswriter Mark Kiszla reports that Air Force is preparing to move to the Big East, the announcement scheduled for (possibly) the end of October. The Falcons will play football in the Big East while moving their other sports (basketball included) to the Missouri Valley Conference.

Here and There...
Tom Luicci of the Star Ledger is reporting that the Big East, in addition to the military academies, is also courting Boise State of the Mountain West Conference. The Broncos could help the conference retain their automatic qualifier status in the BCS system. Like the Air Force, the Boise State invitation is for football only. The Broncos would have to find a home for their other sports. Unconfirmed by Boise State, file this one among the Rumors for the time being.

In the immediate aftermath of Syracuse and Pittsbughs announced exit Connecticut President Susan Herbst seemed more involved in pursuing an exit strategy rather than raising the conference standard and rallying the disheartened among the Big East members. That task was left to Louisville AD Tom Jurich and basketball coach Rick Pitino. The very public lobbying of the Atlantic Coast Conference conducted by several Connecticut newspapers came to nothing when ACC Commissioner John Swofford indicated in September 28 interviews that the conference is "...very settled" at 14 members. Boston Globe sportswriter Mark Blaudschun offered another explanation for the ACC expansion today however. While virtually all of the movement for the past two years has been to build revenue streams on football programs, Blaudschun suggested the ACC move to snap up Syracuse and Pittsburgh was motivated by basketball, and the Big Easts recent surge to the head of the class. Raiding the Big East to grab two of the conferences most successful basketball programs was, Blaudschun reports, was meant to apease basketball powers North Carolina and Duke, both of whom felt the 2004 raid which brought Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College into the conference further diluted the basketball side of their conference. Connecticut Blaudschun asserts, was left out at the behest of regional rival Boston College who was still unhappy at the lawsuits filed when the Eagles left in 2004. What goes around comes around...

H/T: VUHoops.com & Pete Thamel

Inside-Outside in the Big East, 2011 Into 2012

Pelton vs Pomeroy And Other Issues
Keven Pelton, currently an author for The Basketball Prospectus developed the stat as a shorthand for determining where (and how often...) a player tended to take his shots, either inside or outside of the three point line. The formula,

Inside = (FTA - 3FGA) / Minutes

weighs free throw attempts against three point attempts to determine the tendency of the player, or in the case of this post the team, to take those FGAs from beyond the arc. Dividing by minutes played implicitely measures the frequency of the outside shot. I have multiplied the result by 100 to develop a more readable stat. Ken Pomeroy introduced a modified version of Pelton's stat with his 2007 Preview of the Big 12 Conference with the explanation "...Inside is a knock off of Kevin Pelton's stat which attempts to quantify where a players shots come from...". Pomeroy's formula

Inside = (FTA - 3FGA) / FGA * 100

uses the difference of free throws attempts from three point attempts as a proportion of total field goal attempts. The underlying assumption is that because perimeter-oriented teams (POTs as defined by John Gasaway) take larger proportions of their FGAs beyond the arc, they are less likely to get to the free throw line to compensate for any missed FGAs, or and ones that come as bonuses for being fouled but making the shot anyway. Teams that shoot a lot of threes do not tend to get a lot of trips to the charity stripe.

A comparison of where the team took it's shots last season with where the returning players took their shots last season should provide a hint about the basic offensive orientation of each team going into fall practice. I added the returning minutes to give the reader a sense of whether the returning contingent can be expected to replace the departed offense. A team that returns a nucleus of players whose offensive orientation is unrepresentative of the coach's historic offensive philosophy could present the coaching staff with a choice -- to adapt the offense to the strengths offered by the nucleus of returning players, or encourage the nucleus to develop the offensive skill set of the departed squad members...or hope the freshmen come through.

	Ret.	Pelton		Pomeroy
	Min%	2011	2012	2011	2012
Cincinnati	59.2	1.30	3.15	4.69	10.41
Connecticut	61.7	1.33	0.35	4.57	1.36
DePaul	73.6	1.27	3.53	4.44	11.58
Georgetown	48.5	-0.98	-2.44	-3.70	-10.67
Louisville	71.4	-3.19	-2.85	-10.82	-10.86
Marquette	62.0	5.12	4.82	18.15	16.87
Notre Dame	54.4	1.72	0.40	6.50	1.56
Pittsburgh	57.3	4.29	1.99	15.70	7.12
Providence	79.1	1.29	1.08	4.13	3.91
Rutgers	47.8	0.83	5.71	3.04	20.56
Seton Hall	46.2	-0.56	2.43	-1.90	8.40
South Florida	58.2	1.91	-0.10	7.49	-0.34
St. John's	4.8	5.37	4.10	20.08	17.33
Syracuse	81.9	1.21	-0.85	4.29	-2.98
Villanova	52.3	2.49	5.65	9.07	22.79
West Virginia	39.3	2.06	3.40	7.45	10.06

A positive number indicates the team more likely took the FGA inside the arc; a negative number indicates they more likely took the shot outside of the three point line. The greater the value, the greater the tendency for either inside or outside play. A value of 0.0 suggests the team did not prefer one over the other.

Same old, same old?
That those returning to play the 2012 season for Louisville, Marquette and Providence show about the same tendency as the 2011 squad(s) is no surprise. Each of those programs returns a substantial proportion of the minutes (and points...) from last season. The rather large change in tendency for DePaul and Syracuse (and even to some degree, Connecticut) however, suggests those squads lost influential contributors from their offensives, contributors significant enough to change the character of the squad's offense going into 2012. Those are roles that Demon, Orange and Huskie staffers are going to have to replace somehow.

Focusing on Pomeroy's Inside stat for a second, I developed a three year look (combined with the Inside stat for the returning squad members) to see if there were any trends. Do teams become more "inside" oriented or "outside" oriented over time?

	Pomeroy for...
Team	2009	2010	2011	2012
Cincinnati	-7.44	-0.77	4.69	10.41
Connecticut	22.59	22.70	4.57	1.36
DePaul	-1.35	-1.64	4.44	11.58
Georgetown	5.50	6.83	-3.70	-10.67
Louisville	-6.40	-3.93	-10.82	-10.86
Marquette	10.78	-0.21	18.15	16.87
Notre Dame	-8.45	3.64	6.50	1.56
Pittsburgh	3.41	13.63	15.70	7.12
Providence	4.32	-1.90	4.13	3.91
Rutgers	-0.17	-0.66	3.04	20.56
Seton Hall	2.32	3.51	-1.90	8.40
South Florida	12.79	18.55	7.49	-0.34
St. John's	3.13	2.13	20.08	17.33
Syracuse	6.19	5.99	4.29	-2.98
Villanova	9.94	9.43	9.07	22.79
West Virginia	1.89	4.84	7.45	10.06

The lime highlight connotes a new coach's first first year. Regime change may explain large year-to-year adjustments for Marquette and Providence when looking at the second year for Keno Davis (Providence) and Buzz Williams (Marquette).

New Coaches, New Systems?
The large swing for St. John's (+2.13 to +20.08), when combined with the very high percentage of returning minutes/scoring from 2010 to 2011 (89.5% and 91% respectively) provide more proof (on the off chance that the Johnnies' record and advancement to the NCAAs last season was not enough...) that Coach Lavin did dramatically overhaul the offense with the same nucleus as 2010. The job facing the St. John's staff for 2012 will be daunting. And ignore the projected 2012 inside stat, that is basically Malik Stith, the only returning veteran in 2012. While it is tempting to attribute Seton Hall's decisive move to the outside (+3.51 to -1.90) to the philosophy of Head Coach Kevin Willard (and I have no doubt that Willard, whose first head coaching job came at Iona of the MAAC, is a bit more perimeter oriented than his predessor), the graduation of John Garcia and Nunu Harvey, two players (one front court and one back court) who tended to take it to the rim when they wanted to score. Willard recruited Patrik Auda, who took more threes in one season than Garcia did in his career, as a front court replacement. Chalk the decisive shift inside for DePaul (-1.64 to +4.44) to a coach who would not tolorate the slew of bad habits (lazy shot selection, "me first/me next" approach to offense) the Demons have developed lately. Not to mention Coach Purnell went out and signed a very nice front court player in Cleveland Melvin who managed to score efficiently while taking just over 26% of the possessions and over 30% of the team shots when he was on the court.

To project where the Friars will find their offense I looked at Coach Ed Cooley's last three seasons at Fairfield. With each succeeding season Cooley's squads "moved inside"; the 2011 Fairfield squad had an Inside stat of 17.16, decidedly more inside than Providence's 4.13. Factor in a (much) lower pace and an uncharacteristic emphasis on defense (both hallmarks of Cooley coached Fairfield squads), and the Friar Nation is in for something completely different this winter. Let's hope the fans embrace the new look offense and playing style.

Quick Hits
Since winning the National Championship back in 2004 Connecticut became (along with Pittsburgh under Coach Jamie Dixon) one of the most "inside oriented" teams in the Big East. Last season's pronounced shift towards the "outside" was uncharacteristic of the Huskies. The additional shift to the outside shown in the returning squad members reflects the loss of Kemba Walker, who despite some prolific shooting from beyond the arc (the junior took 227 three point attempts), was primarily an inside scorer, who posted an 11.9 Inside stat (Pomeroy's inside expression). Walker's departure was partly mitigated by the loss of Jamal Coombs-McDaniel, the foward who posted a remarkable -14.7 Inside stat, despite playing the #3/#4. If freshman Andre Drummond logs a lot of playing time and has any impact on the offense (beyond rebounding), look for the Huskies to post a 2012 Inside stat closer to 20 than 0.

Don't count on Syracuse becoming a POT (Perimeter Oriented Team) this season. The shift outside no doubt the void left by Rick Jackson, but the staff will find a body to fill that (offensive) role. Notice the inside stat did not vary by much from 2009-2011. Coach Boeheim has been doing this long enough to know what he is looking for offensively, and someone or some combination of players in the front court rotation will provide that element this season.

Villanova's Inside stat has been among the most consistent in the conference from 2009-2011, even steadier than Pittsurgh's or Connecticut's (two very Inside-oriented teams). That dramatic shift to the inside reflected by the returning players? Not to worry, as the returning players for 2011 showed a similar dramatic turn to the inside. And that projected re-orientation did not come to pass, despite the fact that the incoming freshmen (James Bell and JayVaughn Pinkston) played a far smaller role in the offense than anticipated (James was injured for part of the season and Pinkston, suspended for the school year before the first tip off, saw no playing time at all). If indeed the veterans are expected to produce the outside firepower necessary to rebalance the Inside stat (back towards) 9, the responsibility will fall to Dominic Cheek and Maalik Wayns. As much as I would like to think those two can step into the role, I suspect this year's Wildcats will have to -- uncharacteristically since Scottie Reynolds' freshman years -- look to freshmen (like Archaf Yacoubou and Ty Johnson for example) to contribute early and often.

Louisville's persistent migration to the outside in the period 2009-11 is the byproduct of the loss of Samardo Samuels. Despite great reviews coming into the Cardinal program out of high school, Terrence Jennings had no significant impact. Count on a more mature Gorgui Dieng and maybe Stephen Van Tresse to help rebalance the offense.

The Big East Conference 2012 -- Home & Road Opponents

Who Drew a Short Straw?
Most of the commentary about conference opponents has devolved into a recitation of the opposing slate laced with opinions (with a heavy reliance on memory and recollection...) of whether this player is returning, that recruit will make an impact and the other team was good/bad or will be better/worse than they were last season. With the many of the the "summer report" cycle winding down, many of the academic casualties going into the fall semester still unannounced, the NCAA Clearing House yet to process many in the incoming class, there is more speculation than fact available when looking at the home-away slates...

Maters of Their Domains?
Win the home games -- one of the first rules of conference play, comes into play every season. Running the home slate will not guarantee a top finish in conference play (think of Louisville's 9-0 record at the Yum! last season; the Cards still finished in a three-way tie for third and took the #4 seed at Madison Square Garden), but doing just better than 0.500 will not get your team into the bye seeds (think Villanova's #9 seed on a 5-4 home record). If your team is expected to challenge for a bye seed, which suggests your favorites ought to be able to go toe-to-toe with the conference heavyweights (...which would suggest your team is one of the conference heavyweights...), then common sense would dictate that the toughest opponents should come to visit. On homecourt your guys have the high ground. On the other hand, you your team is struggling for respectability, and a place in the post season conversation, then running up a big home court record (and taking your lumps on the road...) would be the better strategy...assuming your guys can keep it respectable on the road. Excluding the mirrors (I looked at those pairings in an earlier post), which teams got a draw that works for their strategy? I looked at home opponents...

	Opps	Ret.
Team	PWP	Min%	Comments
Seton Hall	0.448	0.491	'Ville, NDU & Pitt!
DePaul	0.441	0.645	Not a good draw for needs
St. John's	0.421	0.631	Thrown into the deep end?
Syracuse	0.414	0.519	What they want
Connecticut	0.408	0.494	A puzzle?
Rutgers	0.396	0.556	'Nati & Cuse
Marquette	0.387	0.476	A rebuilding year?
Notre Dame	0.380	0.687	A lot of routs in South Bend
Georgetown	0.369	0.556	RU, USF & PC...
Louisville	0.366	0.538	Swap Rutgers for 'Nati?
West Virginia	0.363	0.612	'Vill & 'Nati toughest
Providence	0.362	0.547	Host the Huskies
South Florida	0.352	0.432	Favorable for Bulls?
Cincinnati	0.337	0.678	Returning mins high
Villanova	0.331	0.661	See above
Pittsburgh	0.330	0.486	Cincinnati and...?!

The table orders the conference by average Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) of the non-mirror visiting teams. I also averaged that slate's returning minutes, to give myself an idea of whether each team would face a home slate with personnel similar to the personnel they faced in 2011. The conference average for returning minutes next season (as of July...) is 56.1%. The results brought a few surprises.

One of the more interesting questions is where Connecticut will fit in 2012. The Huskies, who finished #9 in the conference last season with a 4-5 road record, and will not have the services of Kemba Walker (or Jamal Coombs-McDaniels) next season, remain an enigma. Georgetown, Louisville and Villanova may count themselves lucky in that they get to host a sophomore-dominated squad next season without having to take a rematch in Storrs. St. John's, which returns all of 4.8% of their 2011 minutes (and 3.7% of their scoring), is another wildcard. Coach Steve Lavin will have an extremely talented -- but extremely young -- roster to mold. The Red Storm sported a relatively modest 0.333 road PWP last season, even lower than their 4-5 record would suggest. But given the virtual makeover for 2012, even 0.333 may be an overstatement. Will Marquette, Pittsburgh and Seton Hall regret not drawing the Johnnies at the Garden as a swap for say Notre Dame, Syracuse and Cincinnati (repsectively)? Though most expect Pittsburgh to contend again next season (Jamie Dixon has the best conference record of any Big East coach over the past five seasons), the Panthers cannot look to a favorable schedule mix as a boost. Of their non-mirror visitors, Cincinnati (0.447), Georgetown (0.425) and Villanova (0.405) have the highest road PWPs in 2011 conference games. Of those three, only the Bearcats return more than the conference average for minutes next season. For Cincinnati, the high percentage of returning minutes, combined with high percentage of returning scoring from their visitors will make matching their 2011 conference home record (6-3) a challenge. If the Bearcats want to move into the conference elites however, they will have to dominate that slate.

...And On the Road
The road strategy reverses for those aspiring to bye bids -- take the weakest teams in their buildings. For those struggling in conference play, opportunities to win are maximized at home, so take the conference elites on the road and hope to stem the bleeding in the low double digits...

	Opps	Ret.
Team	PWP	Min%	Comments
Louisville	0.710	0.484	St. John's & WVU skew mins
Notre Dame	0.706	0.471	Johnnies, Hoyas & Hall
Villanova	0.692	0.449	Johnnies, Hoyas & RU skew
DePaul	0.683	0.525	What Demons need?
Providence	0.679	0.503	Good for need?
Georgetown	0.666	0.616	'Ville, Pitt & Cuse Oh my!
South Florida	0.643	0.653	DPU only road softie...
Rutgers	0.620	0.627	Matches bubble strategy
Pittsburgh	0.620	0.633	UConn, NDU & Cuse
Seton Hall	0.616	0.654	Cuse & Nova
Marquette	0.612	0.650	Irish, Orange & 'Eers
Syracuse	0.593	0.487	Good match to need
West Virginia	0.580	0.553	Cuse & Huskies
St. John's	0.567	0.555	If team struggles...ouch
Cincinnati	0.558	0.521	A good match for need
Connecticut	0.521	0.596	Tailored to need?

I calculated the PWP for road games (conference only) for each team and averaged those road PWPs for each team's slate of opponents. Again mirrors have been excluded.

For Connecticut, Syracuse, De Paul and Providence, the slate matches the strategy pretty well. The Demons and Friars want wins, and conceding road games to the stronger teams in the conference in exchange for favorable home matchups should be cause for little concern. Each drew a challenging road slate that features Cincinnati and Notre Dame. The Huskies and Orange, by contrast, want their weakest opponents on the road, on the assumption they will beat them no matter where they play. Both feature road games with Rutgers, but other fourth quartile finishers are listed among each team's mirrors. Coach Calhoun's squad will see the Bulls, who sport the weakest 2011 home PWP this side of De Paul. Coach Boeheim drew De Paul, owner of the weakest home PWP last season. Syracuse also drew rebuilding St. John's. If the Storm struggles, this could prove to be a hidden bonus.

Exclusions, Exceptions...ie The Fine Print
The dynamics of a team are not especially predictable. It is rarely in a coach's (or school's) interests to disclose that half the squad does not want to play ball with the other half, or is planning to transfer at the end of the season. Injuries have derailed a team's season and a player's career, and yet remain among the wildcards. Players sometimes behave badly, the type of situation that most fans see far more clearly after the fact than before. All of those however are random and absolutely unknowable. The as yet uncharted elements that can impact a team's ability to successfully navigate their conference schedule...
1. Chronology & Sequence -- will the team draw the easier opponents earlier or later in the conference season? The distribution of "difficulty" might seem even in the preseason or early season, but unknowable events can strengthen or weaken slate as the season progresses. Villanova looked like a world beater eight games into their 2011 conference slate, having taken down Syracuse by double digits on the road, but four weeks later they could not beat South Florida on a neutral court.
2. Home/Away Distribution -- Though the conference tries to schedule no more than two consecutive away games, circumstances can make that impossible. A school may schedule an away out of conference opponent at the beginning or end of an away sequence, adding a level of difficulty (TV money can cloud judgement that way).
3. Youth vs. Maturity -- Common wisdom suggests freshmen-dominated squads "wear out" in the latter stages of the season. Balance that nugget with a countervailing common wisdom notion that freshmen progress as the season lengthens (think Jeremy Lamb here). How can we use that information when determining if the 'Eers (who return 39% of their minutes and 45% of their scoring) will be a better team to host than visit? How about St. John's, which returns 5% or their minutes and 4% of their scoring?

Thoughts on the Wildcats' Slate
The home-road slates are a mixed bag that would help if Villanova proves to be a bubble team next season. The 'Cats, who bring back 52% of their playing time and 47% of their scoring should benefit from drawing a comparatively weak home slate. Leaving out the mirrors, the 'Cats should be able to handle Seton Hall and De Paul, two teams they barely beat at the end of the 2011 season, not to mention Providence, a team that cleaned their clocks, all on the road last season. A youngr Connecticut squad (the Huskies swept the 'Cats in 2011) will visit as well. On the road, Pitt and Louisville will be tough unless everything falls into place for the 'Cats. Georgetown will depend as much on how well the new Hoyas gell as on the Wildcats' maturity. Villanova will revisit Rutgers, a team that beat them in overtime last season, and as been mentioned before, the enigmatic Johnnies will pose a challenge.

Signs of the Off Season, 2011-04 -- Where in the World is...?

Ogo Adegboye? -- St. Bonaventure's point guard graduated in May and returned to England as a member of the British National Team. And as a senior national team member he had time to cut an Addis advert (as the Brits would say...) for the 2012 Olympics to be held in London. Adegboye (wearing #6) and two teammates play a 3-on-3 game against rappers Snoop Dogg and Warren G and reigning world-champion triple jumper Phillips Idowu (a member of Great Britain's Olympic track team). The handiwork...

Reggie Redding? -- The former Villanova wing played for InterCollege ETHA Engomis in the Cyprus Premier League in 2010-11, and inked a new contract in mid-July to play with The Walter Tigers Tuebingen of the Bundesliga (German League) in 2011-12.

Beau Knight? -- The center on the University of the Redlands men's team that hosted Villanova on November 22, 2003 (and led the 'Cats 50-49 at the half) is a Broker Sales Associate with Trulia.com in San Francisco, California. Knight took time on June 9, 2011 to serve as a groomsman for his high school buddy Darren Buss, when Darren married Josephine (Joey) Bloomfield in Mount Tamalpais, California. Beau and his wife recently bought a house just outside of Los Gatos, California, where he went to high school.

Corey Fisher? -- The starting point guard for Villanova in 2011 collected his diploma in May and signed a contract with Antalya of the Büyüks,ehir Belediyesi, Turkey's premier league, for 2011-12. While he waits to ship out, Fisher has put some time in the Dyckman Summer League and made summer league headlines again July when his Ooh-Way team knocked off a star-studded Team Nike 66-61 on the courts at Monsignor Kett Park. Fisher led Ooh-Way with 17 points.

The La Salle University Explorers? -- The Atlantic 10 Conference and Big 5 member is back in Tom Gola Arena running full team practices for their August 6-9 tour through Ottawa Canada. The Explorers are slated to play the CIS champion Carleton University Ravens twice (August 6 & 9), sandwiching a game with the University of Ottawa Gee-Gees (August 7) and a squad of Carleton University alums (August 8) in between.

EZ Ed Pinckney? -- The star center on the 1985 National Champion Wildcat squad and current Assistant Coach with the Chicago Bulls is criss-crossing Europe this summer as an Assistant Coach for the Ukranian National Team, which is trying to qualify for the 2012 Olympic Games in London. Former Atlanta Hawks head coach Mike Fratello is the Ukrainian National Team Head Coach.

Ray Floriani? -- The veteran basketball writer and statistician is logging another summer in the Hamilton Park summer league, refereeing games in Jersey City, New Jersey. Ray also blogs about the WNBA (the Liberty sometimes play at the Rock in Newark), and files reports with the folks at Swish Appeal and on his own blog at Yesterday's Basketball.

Scottie Reynolds? -- Villanova's #2 all-time scorer finished the year with Springfield in the NBDL, and signed on to play with Talk 'n Text Tropang Texters of the Philippine Basketball Association, pending a successful tryout.

Susan Herbst? -- The University of Connecticut's President is packing her bags in preparation for an NCAA Presidential retreat in Indianapolis, Indiana, August 9-10. The retreat, sponsored by NCAA President Mark Emmett, will focus on continued expectations for student athlete academic success, fiscal sustainability in Division I and fortification of the integrity of the enterprise. 50 university presidents, four athletic directors and four conference commissioners will attend, thus refuting a rumor that the only other schools invited were Ohio State, Oklahoma, Auburn, Georgia Tech, Southern Cal and Tennessee.

USA Basketball U19 Team -- James Bell Named to the Squad

Final Cut
Rising sophomore wing James Bell was among the twelve named to the U19 men's squad that will represent the USA in the FIBA U19 World Championship Tournament, to be played in Valmiera, Liepaja and Riga Latvia from June 30-July 10 this year.

Jeremy Lamb of the Connecticut Huskies was also named to the final squad.

According to the press release, the team, which is charged with defending the gold medal won by the USA team in 2009, will leave for Europe June 24, and continue training in Lithuania June 25-28. Team USA will play two exhibition games in Lithuania, the first on June 26 versus the Lithuanian U20 National Team and then on June 28 versus the Lithuanian U19 National Team.

Congratulations to James Bell, Jeremy Lamb
& the ten named to the final squad.

Roster Moves -- After the NBA Draft Deadline

Outbound Undergraduates
The Spring Signing Period is over, and the deadline for undergraduates to pull their names from the NBA draft has come and gone. The rosters of the Big East are hardly complete, but with the NBA draftees known and the first wave of outbound transfers identified, it seems a good time to pause and take stock of who (graduating seniors aside...) who else will not return to school in the fall. The Big East's undergraduate contribution to NBA draft list this time around seems light, and that is a good thing. The transfer list on the other hand, seems about as big as prior seasons (2009, when the economic uncertainties persuaded nearly everyone, coaches and players alike, to put "moving plans" on hold, excepted), depressingly so. The usual suspects (South Florida, Louisville, Georgetown) contribute their fair share to the outbound migration...

Connecticut

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Jamal Coombs-McDaniel	6-7	Forward	Soph.	Trans - TBD
Kemba Walker	6-0	Guard	Junior	NBA

Though a junior, most in the Huskie Nation believed this would be Kemba Walker's last season in Storrs. The dynamic guard did not disappoint, delivering Coach Jim Calhoun a third National Championship before declaring for the NBA draft. If Walkers' departure was anticipated, Jamal Coombs-McDaniel's exit was not. Connecticut voluntarily surrendered a men's basketball scholarship as part of the penalty in the Nate Miles Affair. News in mid-May that their APR fell below the NCAA-mandated limit of 825 meant that the Huskies would yield two more next season. That leaves Coach Jim Calhoun with 10 scholarships to distribute next season. For a coach used to having a rotation of 10 or 11 players available, next season should be a very different experience. Losing Coombs-McDaniel, a rising junior who has been a contributor for two seasons, will hurt.

DePaul

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Michael Bizoukas	6-1	Guard	Junior	Missouri State

Michael Bizoukas is a red shirt junior holdover from the Coach Wainwright Era. A sometime starter over the course of his three seasons at DePaul, his role would most likely have been reduced as Coach Purnell brought in more players he took a more direct hand in recruiting. Bizoukas should be able to contribute right away at Missouri State,

Georgetown

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Vee Sanford	6-3	Guard	Soph.	Dayton
Jerrelle Benimon	6-7	Forward	Soph.	Trans - TBD

Though neither of the sophomores, forward Jerrelle Benimon and guard Vee Sanford were (per Ken Pomeroy) significant contributors to the Hoya offense, the loss of both is yet another example of an ongoing problem at Georgetown in the Coach Thompson Era -- the outbound transfer of many supporting players. A too short bench has come back to bite the Hoyas at times in the last three seasons. The Hoyas anticipate having 12 scholarship players available in 2012, with five of those players incoming freshmen. An untimely injury or two can expose the squad.

Louisville

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Terrence Jennings	6-10	Forward	Junior	NBA
George Goode	6-8	Forward	Junior	Trans - TBD

Though he played behind Samardo Samuels for two seasons and he did not have the impact season he might have wanted, junior forward Terrence Jennings declared for the NBA draft and will not return to Louisville next season. The status of red shirt junior George Goode however is less clear. Early in the off season the forward was linked with rising sophomore Russ Smith as a pair who would follow Assistant Coach Steve Masiello to Manhattan College, play immediately (5th year senior) and finish out his career in the MAAC. With the normally chaotic scholarship situation at Louisville (right now they have 12 "on scholarship", with two more "verbals" on tap...that does not include the three walk-ons) even more up in the air this off season, is it possible that Goode might be back? Stay tuned...



Marquette

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Reggie Smith	6-0	Guard	Frosh.	UNLV
Erik Williams	6-7	Forward	Soph.	Sam Houston State

Freshman Reggie Smith had already settled in a UNLV before the start of the spring semester. Forward Erik Williams is another story. The Texan was little used during most of the season, accumulating about 11% of the available minutes at the #4 per Ken Pomeroy. Williams did earn 11 starts over the course of the season, though Cracked Sidewalks points out that "...Buzz Williams decided to start Williams at the beginning of each half in nine of MU's final 10 games to reduce Jae Crowder's penchant for foul trouble. During that stretch, only once did Williams log more than 10 minutes -- the home blowout of Providence -- and he failed to score in half of those contests...". A homecoming of sorts, Williams should find a larger offensive role at Sam Houston State. And Coach Buzz Williams will continue to draw Texas players up to Milwaukee.

Notre Dame

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Carleton Scott	6-8	Forward	Junior	NBA

Limited to a role player and having an additional year of eligibility available, Carleton Scott nevertheless threw his lot with the NBA draft this spring. Noted for defensive rebounding and scoring inside the arc, as a veteran contributor Scott will be missed. But it could have been worse, Coach Brey and the Notre Dame faithful can look forward to one last season from fifth year senior Tim Abromaitis.

Pittsburgh

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
J.J. Richardson	6-7	Forward	Soph.	Houston

Though he tore up the courts in the Panthers' Irish Tour last summer, JJ Richardson had difficulty carving his niche in the rotation with sophomore Dante Taylor, junior Nasir Robinson and red shirt freshman Talib Zanna ahead of him. A native of Texas, Richardson decided to go home and try again with Houston.

Seton Hall

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Anali Okoloji	6-8	Forward	Frosh.	George Mason
Ferrakohn Hall	6-8	Forward	Soph.	Memphis

Sophomore Ferrakohn Hall was a reluctant recruit dating back to his freshman season, the tumultuous last season for Coach Bobby Gonzalez. Persuaded to try another season, Hall lasted a semester and decided to transfer back home, finding a place in Coach Josh Pastner's Memphis program. Anali Okoloji was an early recruit for current Coach Kevin Willard, but freshman forward saw only spot minutes playing behind fellow freshman Patrik Auda.

South Florida

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Mike Burwell	6-6	Guard	Soph.	Towson
Shedrick Haynes	6-0	Guard	Junior	Tarleton St.

Like St. John's under former coach Norm Roberts, the South Florida program is acquiring a turnstile-like quality. The latest outbound transfers include sophomore guard Mike Burwell and JUCO Shedrick Haynes. Though he appeared in 31 of the Bulls' 33 games (and started five), Burwell logged a total of 251 minutes, averaging about eight minutes per appearance. Haynes appeared in 25 games, averaging about six minutes per appearance. Both should see more playing time at their next stop. Coach Stan Heath has replacements lined up already.

St. John's

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Dwayne Polee	6-7	Forward	Frosh.	Trans - TBD
Quincy Roberts	6-5	Guard	Soph.	Trans - TBD

From viturally his first week on the job, St. John's Coach Steve Lavin has been shaking up the recruiting trail, compiling an impressive list of signees. While most understood that his very large 2010 senior class would require a large incoming 2011-12 class to replace them, few expected to see even more roster spots created by outbound transfers. Sophomore guard Quincy Roberts showed flashes in his freshman season, but an injury sidelined him in Coach Norm Roberts' last season, and the red shirt sophomore appeared in four games in the 2011 season, so his transfer is not a surprise. Freshman Dwayne Polee was one of the players the Red Storm staff consciously groomed for leadership going into the 2012 season. One of the few returning players with starting responsibilities in 2011, Polee seemed to be a player the staff looked to to form the nucleus of the next generation of St. John's teams.

West Virginia

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Dan Jennings	6-8	Forward	Soph.	Trans - TBD
Dalton Pepper	6-5	Guard	Soph.	Temple

The subject of frequent transfer rumors in his freshman year, Dalton Pepper finally pulled the trigger after the 2011 season. At one time recruited by virtually all of Philadelphia's Division 1 teams, Pepper's eventual decision to cast his lot with Coach Fran Dunphy and his Temple Owls is entirely reasonable. Fellow sophomore Dan Jennings appeared in 14 games last season, starting in four. Jennings was most active in the Mountaineers' out of conference schedule, but left the bench two minutes into the second half of West Virginia's South Florida game and did not appear in any game after. Will he be missed? Not much according to Coach Bob Huggins.

On Second Thought -- Plotting Trendlines for Big East Teams (pt 2)

Through the Middle Section of the Conference
While there is something appealing about taking the conference by quartiles -- Big East observers have only another year or two for that approach -- I decided to look at the teams in three parts, taking about five teams with each look. The decision was not random, as the trendlines for teams grouped in this way, highlights a number of common elements...similar records & progressions. As in "Second Thoughts: Part 1" I have highlighted those (six this time...) teams discussed in this post in the year-end conference standings:

	W	L	Pct.
Pittsburgh	15	3	0.833
Notre Dame	14	4	0.776
Syracuse	12	6	0.667
Louisville	12	6	0.667
St. John's	12	6	0.667
Cincinnati	11	7	0.611
West Virginia	11	7	0.611
Georgetown	10	8	0.556
Connecticut	9	9	0.500
Villanova	9	9	0.500
Marquette	9	9	0.500
Seton Hall	7	11	0.389
Rutgers	5	13	0.278
Providence	4	14	0.222
South Florida	3	15	0.167
Cincinnati	1	17	0.056

(T6 #6) Cincinnati

Multiple intersecting trendlines suggest...

Third order polynomial trendlines tend to resist wild gyrations, which makes them a good tool for identifying "long term" trends. Cincinnati's season, per the trendline, suggests a mild slump around games 5 through 12, and indeed the Bearcats' record through that seven game stretch was 3-4 (they finished 11-7 and secured the #6 seed in the BET). Coach Mick Cronin, possibly the conference's strongest hot seat candidate going into the season, secured his tenure (at least in the near term) with a team performance that exceeded preseason expectations. An especially strong 5-1 finish of the conference regular season featured wins over Louisville, Marquette and twice over Georgetown, NCAA invitees all. The lone loss through that run was Connecticut, the team which also eliminated Cincinnati in the second round of the NCAA Tournament (and went on to win the National Championship).

(T9 #9) Connecticut

Ahhh, A double helix, perhaps?

The Huskies offer one of the more interesting trendlines from the conference season. Like many teams that finished in this middle third of the conference. Connecticut's trendlines suggest a team that was "evolving" as the season progressed. What sets Connecticut's trendlines apart from the usual in season slump is the suggestion the source of the "pause" was defense. Note the adjusted offensive trendline shows no signs of regressing through the season. The Huskies were one of two squads whose offense (adjusted for the competition) appeared to improve (no regression) over the course of the season.

(8 #8) Georgetown

A curved double intersection like Cincinnati's, but...

The adjusted chart suggests Coach John Thompson's squad peaked around the time of the Villanova game (game 9 on the chart), and then declined through the end of the season. The Hoyas finishd the 2011 season on a four game losing streak that began with the last two games of the conference season and continued through the Wednesday round in the Big East Tournament, culminating with their second consecutive first round of the NCAA Tournament. Junior guard Chris Wright missed three of the games through that stretch, but the chart suggests the offense was in full decline well before Wright missed games. Note the second intersection in the chart, around game 14, was an eight point loss (70-78) to Connecticut. The Huskies also eliminated the Hoyas in New York City exactly three weeks later.

(T9 #11) Marquette

Slump & recovery...

The adjusted chart suggests a decline/slump through much of the season, as Coach Buzz Williams' program bottomed out around the Georgetown game (game #12), then began a slow rebound through the end of the regular season. The Golden Eagles did finish the regular season on a two game losing streak, one that may well have put their NCAA bid on a bubble going into New York City. Marquette rebounded nicely however, running to the Sweet Sixteen where they fell, 81-63, to North Carolina.

(T9 #10) Villanova

The season-long slump?

The season-long decline of the Wildcats' offensive efficiency is clearer in the adjusted efficiency chart. Many of my post game analysis pointed to defensive lapses (also indicated in the trendlines), but the chart hints strongly the offensive decline was persistent and steady throughout the conference season. Stepping back a bit, the decline, from just under 120 (118?) down to about 101, was dramatic for an 18 game stretch. Unlike other teams in this group, there was no rebound...

(T6 #7) West Virginia

No double intersection here either

The trendlines suggest that West Virginia's offensive slump was well timed. The Mountaineers' record from games three through nine was 6-1, with an eye popping 89.9 adjusted defensive efficiency that masked a 10% decline in offensive efficiency during that time period. Coach Bob Huggins' squad finished the conference regular season with an 11-7 conference record (tied for #6 with Cincinnati, earning the 'Eers a #7 seed for the Big East Tournament). West Virginia earned a #5 seed to the NCAA Tournament and lost in the second round to Final Four-bound Kentucky.

Surfing and Thinking...

Josh Harrellson's East Region Performance
Dan Hanner's blog over at the RealGM site is becoming a frequent stop for me these days. Dan chooses his topics well and always makes for an interesting read. I found his post weekend piece, "The Final Four is Set", very interesting given his computed offensive ratings for the Kentucky Wildcats based on the four tournament games played through last weekend. Freshman point guard Brandon Knight has an offensive rating of 95.7, taking 32% of the team possessions ("Jordanesque"), while junior. The PTBs named the All-East Region Team at the end of the Regional Finals Sunday, and as noted by Ray Floriani the five named to the team were...

Brandon Knight, Kentucky -- All-East MVP
Josh Harrellson, Kentucky
DeAndre Liggins, Kentucky
Tyler Zeller, North Carolina and
Harrison Barnes, North Carolina

While I thought the PTBs had the right five players, I disagreed about the MVP. No slight intended to Brandon Knight, who sent Ohio State home Friday night on a jumper with 9.5 seconds left in regulation. Knight also scored 31 points in 74 minutes of play. A tremendous effort, all the more impressive given he is a freshman. I thought however, that junior forward Josh Harrellson, named to the All-Region Team along with his teammate, was the most valuable player on the Kentucky squad that weekend. Harrellson recorded a double-double against Ohio State. The junior was something of a Dutch Boy for Kentucky during the game's 20 minutes, supplying 12 of Kentucky's 30 first half points on 6-8 shooting. During the first 16½ minutes of the game Kentucky's forward was a perfect 5-5 as he, along with Darius Miller supplied 17 of the Wildcats' first 25 points, as the two teams struggled for control of the game. Harrellson paced Kentucky with a double-double, recording 10 rebounds to go with his 17 point performance. After going 6-8 (and 0-0 from the line) in the first half, Harrellson was a perfect 1-1 and 3-3 from the line. Though Knight and Doron Lamb started much faster in the North Carolina game on Sunday contributing eight points apiece through the first half, Harrellson again provided the Wildcats offense with teeth, scoring 10 points on 3-4 shooting from the field and 4-6 scoring from the line through the first 20 minutes. He finished with 12 points and eight rebounds.

Shooting in Stadiums vs Shooting in Arenas
Kevin Pelton over at Basketball Prospectus looked at the conversion data for arenas versus stadia for the regional finals in 2009 and 2010. His findings...no appreciable difference -- and that is especially true for three point attempts.

Coincidence? I Think Not
Pete Thamel over at the New York Times broke a story on Friday (April 1...) that featured ex-UConn player (who never made it onto the court) Nate Miles who reversed an earlier stand of non-cooperation with the NCAA's investigation of recruiting improprieties by refuting denials of specific knowledge made in writing by Jim Calhoun and Tom Moore late last fall. Thamel has a history of "good timing" on his breaking news. His expose of then-Seton Hall coach Bobby Gonzalez's bad coaching behavior on the eve of the Big East Tournament in 2010 managed to distract the program during a late season push for an NCAA bid. Though Thamel has made John Calipari's management of the Kentucky program something of a personal project, it was FOXSports who broke the second edition of the Bilal Batley saga earlier today. Just to level the playing field for UConn and Kentucky I suppose. Allegations that Batley, while in a non-coaching position on Kentucky's staff, assisted several players on the court resulted in his resignation last fall. Earlier today FOXSports alleged that Batley also made impermissible contacts with recruits, the kind of no-no that got Kelvin Sampson fired at Indiana (and censored at Oklahoma) and put Connecticut (along with several more serious violations) in hot water with the NCAA last fall.

Pittsburgh vs. Connecticut Post Game -- Another Look at Connecticut's Win

Just Your Average Conference Tournament Quarter Final
The 19,375 fans in the Garden for the afternoon quarterfinal session, depending on the team affiliation, may have disappointed with one -- or both -- game outcomes, but they could not have been disappointed with the effort given by any of the four teams. There is something special about games like these, played at a very high level and with great effort. Ray Floriani has graciously shared his experiences at the tournament and his insights into the play each day (his latest contribution, "Big East Tournament, Day 3" is above), looks at the Syracuse vs. St. John's game, so I thought I might breakdown the box score of the Connecticut vs. Pittsburgh game to get an idea of how the Huskies took down the tournament #1 seed (and the conference's most consistent team).

The breakdown by halves...

	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	33.0	27.8	60.8
	Connecticut				Pittsburgh
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	121.4	129.5	125.1		124.4	118.7	121.8
eFG%	56.0	40.9	47.4		68.0	58.3	63.3
TORate	12.1	7.2	9.5		20.7	16.1	18.1
OR%	30.8	56.3	44.8		22.2	46.2	36.4
FTA/FGA	60.0	30.3	43.1		32.0	25.0	28.6
FTM/FGA	48.0	27.3	36.2		28.0	20.8	24.5
ARate	38.5	15.4	26.9		46.7	41.7	44.4
Blk%	12.0	0.0	5.2		8.0	0.0	4.1
Stl%	3.0	3.2	4.8		17.8	8.0	13.6
PPWS	1.25	0.95	1.09		1.42	1.23	1.33
2FG%	52.4	48.0	50.0		55.0	44.4	50.0
3FG%	50.0	12.5	25.0		80.0	66.7	72.7
FT%	80.0	90.0	84.0		87.5	83.3	85.7
%2FG	55.0	66.7	60.5		53.7	48.5	51.4
%3FG	15.0	8.3	11.8		29.3	36.4	32.4
%FT	30.0	25.0	27.6		17.1	15.2	16.2

The pace was more to Pittsburgh's preference than Connecticut's, though the Huskies have played seven games (total) within 4 possessions of the calculated 60 possessions (59 per Ken Pomeroy), posting a 5-2 record in those games. The numbers that really caught my eye (green highlighted above) had to do with shot conversion and rebounding. Note Connecticut was "outshot" 63.3% to 47.4% but kept the score close and actually won! Converting at a rate 15% better than your opponent and losing is the kind of stat that puts deep lines on a coach's face. Three keys to understanding how UConn negated that Pittsburgh advantage can be found with a harder look at the table...offensive rebounding, turnovers & free throw shooting. By grabbing 44.8% of their misses and keeping turnovers to 9.5% (about half of Pitt's turnover rate), the Huskies gave themselves a 58-49 advantage in field goal attempts. Nine additional shots, particularly when the conversion rate drags down to the 40s, (partly a feature of Kemba Walker's tendency to volume shoot, the guard was 8-22 from the field, a 36.4% eFG%) can be crucial. Connecticut nearly matched Pitt's field goals (26 vs. 27). Getting to the free throw line has been crucial for Connecticut, especially since the Huskies' offense works hard to convert from the low post (UConn's 3-to-2 FGA ratio is just over 3:1) and get to the line. Note Connecticut's FTA/FGA was 43.1%, another 15% advantage over Pittsburgh, and surprising given Pitt's emphasis on scoring from the low post as well. The Panthers, given Gary McGhee's foul problems, no doubt shifted to a perimeter attack to offset the center's absence from the low post. Connecticut's point distribution is a bit light on points from beyond the arc. Despite the announcing crew reminiscing about UConn shooters of the past, UConn's generally looks beyond the arc for only 20%-25% of their points. Points from the line however, at 27.6%, is on the mark for the best Connecticut teams. The rebounding numbers are particularly surprising. Pittsburgh is #2 in the conference (to West Virginia) for offensive rebounding and #1 for defensive rebounding. Both teams dominated the defensive boards, but yielded that advantage to half time adjustments. Nevertheless Connecticut's offensive rebounding rate was over twice what Pitt usually allows, while the Panthers were held to an offensive rebounding rate 2% lower than they usually get in conference.

Numbers...Next...
Connecticut, 24-9, advances to meet Syracuse 26-6, 79-72 winners over St. John's in the second quarter final game, tomorrow in the first semi-final game. Pittsburgh, 27-5 overall, will wait to see if they can hold on to their #1 seed (likely, especially if Notre Dame fails to run the table) and find out where they will open their NCAA run next week.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Big East Tournament, Day 2

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY - The action, recap and assorted numbers of importance from day two.

the Garden is packed!

The scores...

Team	Score			Team
UConn	79		62	Georgetown
St. John's	65		63	Rutgers
Cincinnati	87		61	South Florida
Marquette	67		61	West Virginia

Coverage in person was limited to the evening session. No need to remind anyone but the burning issue of the day was centered around the conclusion of the Rutgers-St.John's contest. Also, to little surprise, officiating was very much in the conversation.

Marquette's Darius Johnson-Odom
meets the media

Game of the Day -- Marquette & West Virginia
The pace and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Marquette	61	110
West Virginia	61	100

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Marquette	52	33	31	16
West Virginia	49	22	28	21

Outstanding care of the ball by Marquette. Overall they had 10 turnovers. West Virginia had 13 but many were the variety of which you pay. Not just throwing the ball out of bounds but leading to an opposition score. Marquette had a 16-7 edge in points off turnovers. Not a huge difference but significant in a two possession game as this.

Defense was a big part, as noted, of Marquette's second half surge. West Virginia led 36-29 at the break but was held to a 78 offensive efficiency. The last eight minutes the Mountaineers managed two field goals. Both by John Flowers and one on an offensive rebound.

Offensively Junior Cadougan broke down the WVU defense by dribble penetration. The Marquette sophomore guard finished (15 points) and was able to find teammates, distributing 5 assists.

West Virginia coach Bob Huggins did a good job mixing defenses. Thought going to a late game 1-3-1 was a good move as it showed Marquette a different look. The 'look' appealed to Darius Johnson-Odom who buried two key three pointers that gave Buzz Williams' club 'separation'. Suffice to say Huggins was back in a man following that second three pointer.

The three was a big weapon for West Virginia. They shot better from beyond the arc than for the game overall.

	FG	Pct.
3 FGs	10-22	46%
Overall	20-51	39%

Kevin Jones paced the Mountaineers with 15 points. The 6-8 junior enjoyed the perimeter hitting 3 of 4. Jones shot 5 of 9 in total. Interestingly his two point percentage (2 of 5 for 40%) significantly trailed the 755 (3 of 4) he hit from downtown.

Cincinnati coach Mick Cronin

Notes
All right, here's the take on game two. Saw the replays but as a long time official (23 years) will only say the crew had a lot to discuss in their post game evaluation.

UConn enjoyed a healthy 115-94 efficiency advantage in the win over Georgetown. Kemba Walker of UConn had a game high 28 points and an impressive Manley efficiency of 28. Walker contributed more rebounds (6) than assists (3). UConn, a solid 17% TO rate. Georgetown, a 24% rate (having point guard Chris Wright out of the lineup is a significant setback) that did not help matters.

Rutgers had a notable 45% OReb percentage. The Scarlet Knights had a better TO rate (22%) than St. John's (24%). Damage was done as the Red Storm (still can't stand that name) had a 19-8 lead in points off turnovers.

Dwight Hardy paced St. John's with 17 points. Hardy was only 5 of 17 from the floor (0-3 from three) but did go 7-9 from the line.

Cincinnati shot 64% from two point range, holding South Florida to a 37% mark from the same area. Bulls lost point guard Anthony Crater (a familiar name to Villanova faithful) late in the first half due to an injury. South Florida trailed by 8 at the half but was routed the final 20 minutes. Coach Stan Heath did not blame the final half meltdown to Crater's absence. But it didn't help.

Both clubs did show good care of the ball. Cincinnati's TO rate was 18%, South Florida checked in at 17%. Bearcats dominated inside with a 40% OREB percentage (South Florida was 28%) and a 36-22 edge in points in the paint.

Yancy Gates of Cincy scored a game high 25 points an 10n of 11 shooting from the floor. The 6-9 junior did not attempt a three, no need to and had an excellent Manley efficiency of 28 (1.22 per minute eff.), in 23 minutes.

Augusts Gilchrist WAS South Florida's inside presence with 16 points 5 rebounds. Sophomore guard Shaun Noriega scored 12 points. Noriega has a nice touch and loves the trey. He was 4 of 7 beyond the arc and 0 for 2 from two point range.

Tomorrow, the quarterfinals. This should be 'feast week', at any rate the Madness truly continues.

Cincinnati cheerleaders

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Big East Tournament, Day 1

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY - Day one in the books. Already a surprise of note.

Outside MSG early morning

The scores...

Team	Score			Team
UConn	97		71	DePaul
Rutgers	76	OT	70	Seton Hall
South Florida	70		69	Villanova
Marquette	87		66	Providence

Interesting how the opener and nightcap left little drama. The middle games held the most excitement. Decided to focus on a game of the day. At press row as Seton Hall-Rutgers was being played out I was certain this was it. A few hours later the opinion might have been altered. At any rate I will stay with that as greyCat will probably ring in and do a more thorough analysis of the latest Villanova setback.

Tip game one. start of the 'marathon'

Game of the Day -- Rutgers & Seton Hall
The pace and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Rutgers	74	103
Seton Hall	77	91

Both teams scored one field goal in overtime. Rutgers got to the line and capitalized. Defensively they also were able to get key stops. The OT efficiency and pace. Score was tied at 64 after regulation.

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Rutgers	12	100
Seton Hall	13	46

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Rutgers	52	48	26	19
Seton Hall	46	19	27	21

The offensive rebounding rates were close. The other factor getting you to the line is points in the paint. Seton Hall held a 32-26 edge there. The free throw disparity can be traced to Seton Hall trailing in OT and fouling late to extend the game. The other sign was 43% of the Hall attempts were from three point range. Rutgers took 32% of their FGAs beyond the arc.

Amber (L) and Reyna (R) of Seton Hall

Other stats were rather close. Even two point shooting, Rutgers checked in at 50% and the Hall was 47%. Probably the only separation was an intangible of toughness. Not saying the Hall did not have it but Rutgers weathered some adversity to regroup and get back in it. Rutgers trailed by 8 late the first half. Scarlet Knights also saw the pirates Jeremy Hazell hit a potentially momentum changing trey that tied the score just before the buzzer.

Hazell, led all scorers with 27 points. Rutgers’ Jonathan Mitchell paced his club with 25. Game saw three Seton Hall players and one from Rutgers foul out.

Recurring theme seen in the Dayton, Richmond and a few other contests : the Hall had a lead of significance but couldn’t build or sustain. And eventually lost the lead and the game.

Rutgers improved to 15-16 while the Hall finished 13-18.

Kevin Willard, Jeremy Hazell and Jeff Robinson
could only ponder what might have been

Notes
UConn imposed its will getting an 81 possession game against DePaul. Huskies held a significant 121-88 offensive efficiency advantage. Thy also did a job inside holding DePaul to 33% two point shooting.

Scoreboard tells it all

Villanova-South Florida was a mid fifty possession affair. My calculations had the Wildcats with a 128-123 OE gain. As noted it is rare to ‘win’ and OE and lose the game. Twice I have seen Villanova do that this season. Coincidence or just rotten luck?

In a low seventies possession nightcap, Marquette was all over PC with in OE, 116-93. Both teams did have outstanding TO rates as the Friars were 14% and Marquette 16%. Buzz Williams’ club got off to a great start and never looked back. Providence’s efficiency the first four minutes? Zero. They did not score until over five minutes were gone and Marquette had a double digit lead. And counting...

Yours truly with South Florida dance team