Coaching Carousal Part 2013-01: A Record Job Market?

A Big Turnover This Off Season...Probably
When the talking heads turn their attention to the Division I head coaching job market, most will declare that this off season will see the highest level of coaching turnover since the 60 created in the 2007 off season. And they will be right, but for the wrong reasons. Most will focus on a few of highly visible "tall trees" (UCLA & USC) but will miss the forest of vacancies created all around those two. Through the end of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament Division I coaching vacancies totaled 29. Between regular season vacancies and those created during Championship Week(s) -- 24 total before Selection Sunday -- hint that the total number of vacancies this cycle will range from 57 to 75, certainly above the average (50) for the last five seasons, with the potential to eclipse the total created in 2007. The sheer number of early vacancies, and not a much anticipated musical chairs effect generated by the UCLA and USC (and...Minnesota & Northwestern!?) job searches, will drive the numbers.

The West Coast Housing Market is About to Get a Shot in the Arm...
In addition to UCLA and USC, three other California colleges, Cal State Fullerton, Cal State Northridge (two UCLA assistants, Scott Garson and Phil Matthews, among five others, rumored to be in the mix) and San Jose are also looking for new coaches. The turnover will not be limited to the five fired head coaches, 23 staff members, ranging from assistant/associate coaches to operations directors are also updating their resumes. How many will be retained will be decided by the incoming head coach...but expect the attrition to be very high, probably four or fewer will be retained.

The View Atop the Food Chain...
National media attention has focused on the four power conference jobs, Minnesota, Northwestern, Southern California and UCLA. Looking closely, when the higher profile and salary scale are balanced against the challenges, the Athletic Directors at each school have a selling job ahead. After promoting from within for much of it's 108 years, Northwestern has looked to outside and floated from "brand names" like Kevin O'Neil (yes, that Kevin O'Neil), Harold Olsen, Tex Winters and Bill Foster to eccentrics like Ricky Byrdsong to "system guys" like Bill Carmody. Carmody brought the Princeton Offense and a 92-25 career record with him, and the administration stayed with him through 13 seasons. But Carmody's experiment yielded only five winning seasons and a 192-210 record. 192 wins might be second to Dutch Lonborg's 236 (1927-1950) wins, and his 0.478 winning percentage was better than his seven immediate predecessors (dating to 1963). The candidate pool appears surprisingly wide. Athletic Director Jim Phillips has assembled a to-do list, according to various sources, that includes longtime Duke assistant Chris Collins along with head coaches Dr. John Giannini (La Salle), Bryce Drew (Valparaiso), Dave Paulsen (Bucknell), Ben Jacobson (Northern Iowa), Bob McKillop (Davidson) and Brett Reed (Lehigh) to interview. I suspect that beyond Giannini and Paulsen, who have professional connections to Phillips, the real field consists of Collins and (maybe) Drew. The Chicago Tribunes' Teddy Greenstein thinks Collins and Drew, despite drawbacks, would generate the most buzz. Collins has a pocket full of recommendations from media types, most of whom draw paychecks from ESPN and have openly lobbied for their guy on air and via twitter. If their voices prevail, Phillips will revert to "buzz" and pick Collins. Caveat Emptor -- of the 10 head coaches (all fired) to prowl the Welsh Arena sidelines between the legendary Lonberg and Bill Carmody, only two, Kevin O'Neil and Tex Winters, went on to head another Division I program.

Wracked by an academic scandal whose punishment included vacating the school's only Final Four appearance, Minnesota gave Don Monson of Gonzaga seven-plus seasons to rebuild the program. The rebuilding project stalled, but the Golden Gophers caught lightening in a bottle when Orlando (Tubby) Smith, head coach of Division I's premier program, the Kentucky Wildcats, decided he was tired of stoking the outsized egos of an out of control fan-base and the unrealistic expectations of it's Athletic Director, and took his approach to basketball to the Twin Cities. Smith compiled a 124-81 record (a 0.617 winning percentage) and earned three NCAA bids, while running a squeaky clean program. Tubby, despite an 85 year old (renovated twice) arena and seriously out-of-date practice facilities, was building something in the Twin Cities...just not fast enough. Athletic Director Norwood Teague, Virginia Commonwealth's former AD, thanked Smith for his contribution as he showed him the door early Monday. Teague, most likely rattled by media reports that Virginia Commonwealth coach Shaka Smart would be courted hard by UCLA Athletic Director Dan Guerrero (and most likely USC's AD Pat Haden), decided to eat Smith's 2.5 million dollar buyout and rely on his prior relationship with Smart to make up for lost time. Smart has to feel a bit lonely because he is the only candidate in Minnesota's pool right now. That could spell bad news for Teague, because someone, Shaka Smart or not, will have to blow the whistle next October 15 to start the fall practice in that old basketball practice facility and get whoever is on the roster ready to play basketball in Williams Arena.

Faced with mounting evidence of a massive payoff scandal in their football program that could result in death penalty-level sanctions, Southern California's then AD, in a gesture meant to show the NCAA that the USC Athletics Department would re-establish control over that outlaw program, threw then basketball coach Tim Floyd out the window. Floyd landed at Texas El Paso. USC's AD of the past two years, Pat Haden, is still trying to decide where to take the Trojans next. Haden dismissed the program's cleanup crew, Kevin O'Neil, in January, and turned to Tom Cantu to finish out the 2013 season. Haden's list -- after Pittsburgh's Jamie Dixon signed his annual extension (that takes his tenure at Pitt through the 2023 season) -- includes a collection of young head coaches (Shaka Smart, Josh Pastner of Memphis and Buzz Williams of Marquette) and Mark Hopkins, longtime assistant coach to Syracuse's Jim Boeheim, who has ties to the Southern California area. The problem? USC's "One Shining Moment" was Henry Bibby's tenure (specifically the 2000-01 season) and since the John Wooden Era in Westwood, the Trojans are perennially the second (or third) best ticket in Los Angeles in the months between the Rose Bowl and Spring Practice. Whoever takes the job will have to compete with Sean Miller (Arizona) and UCLA for the area's best recruits. Interviews I would have loved to be a "Fly on the Wall" for in this cycle has to be Haden's interview with Texas El Paso's Tim Floyd (yes, that) Tim Floyd).

The object of a prolonged media feeding frenzy for the past two years, Ben Howland's time in Westwood was over even before the season began. Despite taking the UCLA program to three consecutive Final Fours -- a feat unmatched since John Wooden -- Howland and the Bruin fan-base were headed to a divorce on grounds of (mutual) alienation of affection, with a 3.5 million dollar buyout to Howland. The candidate pool -- high profile youngish coaches for the most part -- includes Smart, Butler's Brad Stevens, Florida's Billy Donovan, Villanova's Jay Wright, pro coach Mike Brown, Washington's Lorenzo Romer and Marquette's Buzz Williams. While each offers a quality resume, a few (Williams, Stevens and Wright) are puzzling. The others might want to consider that Howland and Steve Lavin, the last two to pace the Pauley Pavilion sidelines (both fired) combined to win 378 games over their collective 17 years in Westwood. Lavin earned six NCAA bids, advanced to four Sweet Sixteens and a Regional Final in his seven year tenure and failed to win at least 20 games only once. But he was fired in favor of Ben Howland, who earned seven NCAA bids, advanced to three Final Fours, won 30 or more games three times and turned in two losing seasons (not this season) before being fired at the end of his tenth year. In the thirteen seasons before he took UCLA to it's first Final Four, coaching legend John Wooden won 247 games, earned three NCAA bids and advanced to the Sweet Sixteen (but no farther) each time. Given the total circumstances, Smart or Brown (or Romer) make the most sense for the Bruins.

Housekeeping
The total vacancies from the 2011-12 season was 50, with UMBC head coach Randy Monroe's surprise resignation three days before the start of fall practice, the "official" last vacancy created. Commentators last March/April projected a "down year" for the coaching job market, but 50 is average for the period 2007-2012. I include Saint Louis in the vacancies for this season. Although Coach Rick Majerus took a medical leave last August, the stated intent (though few who saw the coaching legend in 2011-12 believed it would happen) was to return to the bench for the 2013-14 season. His resignation in November of 2012 was the confirmation that his career was indeed over. For the nose counters, the period between the end of the NCAA Tournament and the Spring Signing Period will provide important clues for the final count. Vacancies created during the NCAA Tournament (already at five) should be the single largest number created for the cycle; combined with the Spring Signing Period total, the number should be about 1.5 to 2 times the number created during the season and immediate post season (the conference tournament, but before Selection Sunday) period. Should it come to pass, the number by the third week in May would be between 50 and 62.

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Inside-Outside in the Big East, 2011 Into 2012

Pelton vs Pomeroy And Other Issues
Keven Pelton, currently an author for The Basketball Prospectus developed the stat as a shorthand for determining where (and how often...) a player tended to take his shots, either inside or outside of the three point line. The formula,

Inside = (FTA - 3FGA) / Minutes

weighs free throw attempts against three point attempts to determine the tendency of the player, or in the case of this post the team, to take those FGAs from beyond the arc. Dividing by minutes played implicitely measures the frequency of the outside shot. I have multiplied the result by 100 to develop a more readable stat. Ken Pomeroy introduced a modified version of Pelton's stat with his 2007 Preview of the Big 12 Conference with the explanation "...Inside is a knock off of Kevin Pelton's stat which attempts to quantify where a players shots come from...". Pomeroy's formula

Inside = (FTA - 3FGA) / FGA * 100

uses the difference of free throws attempts from three point attempts as a proportion of total field goal attempts. The underlying assumption is that because perimeter-oriented teams (POTs as defined by John Gasaway) take larger proportions of their FGAs beyond the arc, they are less likely to get to the free throw line to compensate for any missed FGAs, or and ones that come as bonuses for being fouled but making the shot anyway. Teams that shoot a lot of threes do not tend to get a lot of trips to the charity stripe.

A comparison of where the team took it's shots last season with where the returning players took their shots last season should provide a hint about the basic offensive orientation of each team going into fall practice. I added the returning minutes to give the reader a sense of whether the returning contingent can be expected to replace the departed offense. A team that returns a nucleus of players whose offensive orientation is unrepresentative of the coach's historic offensive philosophy could present the coaching staff with a choice -- to adapt the offense to the strengths offered by the nucleus of returning players, or encourage the nucleus to develop the offensive skill set of the departed squad members...or hope the freshmen come through.

	Ret.	Pelton		Pomeroy
	Min%	2011	2012	2011	2012
Cincinnati	59.2	1.30	3.15	4.69	10.41
Connecticut	61.7	1.33	0.35	4.57	1.36
DePaul	73.6	1.27	3.53	4.44	11.58
Georgetown	48.5	-0.98	-2.44	-3.70	-10.67
Louisville	71.4	-3.19	-2.85	-10.82	-10.86
Marquette	62.0	5.12	4.82	18.15	16.87
Notre Dame	54.4	1.72	0.40	6.50	1.56
Pittsburgh	57.3	4.29	1.99	15.70	7.12
Providence	79.1	1.29	1.08	4.13	3.91
Rutgers	47.8	0.83	5.71	3.04	20.56
Seton Hall	46.2	-0.56	2.43	-1.90	8.40
South Florida	58.2	1.91	-0.10	7.49	-0.34
St. John's	4.8	5.37	4.10	20.08	17.33
Syracuse	81.9	1.21	-0.85	4.29	-2.98
Villanova	52.3	2.49	5.65	9.07	22.79
West Virginia	39.3	2.06	3.40	7.45	10.06

A positive number indicates the team more likely took the FGA inside the arc; a negative number indicates they more likely took the shot outside of the three point line. The greater the value, the greater the tendency for either inside or outside play. A value of 0.0 suggests the team did not prefer one over the other.

Same old, same old?
That those returning to play the 2012 season for Louisville, Marquette and Providence show about the same tendency as the 2011 squad(s) is no surprise. Each of those programs returns a substantial proportion of the minutes (and points...) from last season. The rather large change in tendency for DePaul and Syracuse (and even to some degree, Connecticut) however, suggests those squads lost influential contributors from their offensives, contributors significant enough to change the character of the squad's offense going into 2012. Those are roles that Demon, Orange and Huskie staffers are going to have to replace somehow.

Focusing on Pomeroy's Inside stat for a second, I developed a three year look (combined with the Inside stat for the returning squad members) to see if there were any trends. Do teams become more "inside" oriented or "outside" oriented over time?

	Pomeroy for...
Team	2009	2010	2011	2012
Cincinnati	-7.44	-0.77	4.69	10.41
Connecticut	22.59	22.70	4.57	1.36
DePaul	-1.35	-1.64	4.44	11.58
Georgetown	5.50	6.83	-3.70	-10.67
Louisville	-6.40	-3.93	-10.82	-10.86
Marquette	10.78	-0.21	18.15	16.87
Notre Dame	-8.45	3.64	6.50	1.56
Pittsburgh	3.41	13.63	15.70	7.12
Providence	4.32	-1.90	4.13	3.91
Rutgers	-0.17	-0.66	3.04	20.56
Seton Hall	2.32	3.51	-1.90	8.40
South Florida	12.79	18.55	7.49	-0.34
St. John's	3.13	2.13	20.08	17.33
Syracuse	6.19	5.99	4.29	-2.98
Villanova	9.94	9.43	9.07	22.79
West Virginia	1.89	4.84	7.45	10.06

The lime highlight connotes a new coach's first first year. Regime change may explain large year-to-year adjustments for Marquette and Providence when looking at the second year for Keno Davis (Providence) and Buzz Williams (Marquette).

New Coaches, New Systems?
The large swing for St. John's (+2.13 to +20.08), when combined with the very high percentage of returning minutes/scoring from 2010 to 2011 (89.5% and 91% respectively) provide more proof (on the off chance that the Johnnies' record and advancement to the NCAAs last season was not enough...) that Coach Lavin did dramatically overhaul the offense with the same nucleus as 2010. The job facing the St. John's staff for 2012 will be daunting. And ignore the projected 2012 inside stat, that is basically Malik Stith, the only returning veteran in 2012. While it is tempting to attribute Seton Hall's decisive move to the outside (+3.51 to -1.90) to the philosophy of Head Coach Kevin Willard (and I have no doubt that Willard, whose first head coaching job came at Iona of the MAAC, is a bit more perimeter oriented than his predessor), the graduation of John Garcia and Nunu Harvey, two players (one front court and one back court) who tended to take it to the rim when they wanted to score. Willard recruited Patrik Auda, who took more threes in one season than Garcia did in his career, as a front court replacement. Chalk the decisive shift inside for DePaul (-1.64 to +4.44) to a coach who would not tolorate the slew of bad habits (lazy shot selection, "me first/me next" approach to offense) the Demons have developed lately. Not to mention Coach Purnell went out and signed a very nice front court player in Cleveland Melvin who managed to score efficiently while taking just over 26% of the possessions and over 30% of the team shots when he was on the court.

To project where the Friars will find their offense I looked at Coach Ed Cooley's last three seasons at Fairfield. With each succeeding season Cooley's squads "moved inside"; the 2011 Fairfield squad had an Inside stat of 17.16, decidedly more inside than Providence's 4.13. Factor in a (much) lower pace and an uncharacteristic emphasis on defense (both hallmarks of Cooley coached Fairfield squads), and the Friar Nation is in for something completely different this winter. Let's hope the fans embrace the new look offense and playing style.

Quick Hits
Since winning the National Championship back in 2004 Connecticut became (along with Pittsburgh under Coach Jamie Dixon) one of the most "inside oriented" teams in the Big East. Last season's pronounced shift towards the "outside" was uncharacteristic of the Huskies. The additional shift to the outside shown in the returning squad members reflects the loss of Kemba Walker, who despite some prolific shooting from beyond the arc (the junior took 227 three point attempts), was primarily an inside scorer, who posted an 11.9 Inside stat (Pomeroy's inside expression). Walker's departure was partly mitigated by the loss of Jamal Coombs-McDaniel, the foward who posted a remarkable -14.7 Inside stat, despite playing the #3/#4. If freshman Andre Drummond logs a lot of playing time and has any impact on the offense (beyond rebounding), look for the Huskies to post a 2012 Inside stat closer to 20 than 0.

Don't count on Syracuse becoming a POT (Perimeter Oriented Team) this season. The shift outside no doubt the void left by Rick Jackson, but the staff will find a body to fill that (offensive) role. Notice the inside stat did not vary by much from 2009-2011. Coach Boeheim has been doing this long enough to know what he is looking for offensively, and someone or some combination of players in the front court rotation will provide that element this season.

Villanova's Inside stat has been among the most consistent in the conference from 2009-2011, even steadier than Pittsurgh's or Connecticut's (two very Inside-oriented teams). That dramatic shift to the inside reflected by the returning players? Not to worry, as the returning players for 2011 showed a similar dramatic turn to the inside. And that projected re-orientation did not come to pass, despite the fact that the incoming freshmen (James Bell and JayVaughn Pinkston) played a far smaller role in the offense than anticipated (James was injured for part of the season and Pinkston, suspended for the school year before the first tip off, saw no playing time at all). If indeed the veterans are expected to produce the outside firepower necessary to rebalance the Inside stat (back towards) 9, the responsibility will fall to Dominic Cheek and Maalik Wayns. As much as I would like to think those two can step into the role, I suspect this year's Wildcats will have to -- uncharacteristically since Scottie Reynolds' freshman years -- look to freshmen (like Archaf Yacoubou and Ty Johnson for example) to contribute early and often.

Louisville's persistent migration to the outside in the period 2009-11 is the byproduct of the loss of Samardo Samuels. Despite great reviews coming into the Cardinal program out of high school, Terrence Jennings had no significant impact. Count on a more mature Gorgui Dieng and maybe Stephen Van Tresse to help rebalance the offense.

Dove Entrails, Tea Leaves, Returning Minutes & Scoring...and Pythagoreas

Projectioning the Future by Looking Back?
The Big East conference rosters are still shaking out, but most questions at this point concern entering freshmen, not returning players. The Pythagorean Winning Percentage was employed as an analytic tool by a number of bloggers in the runnup to the 2010 and 2011 seasons with varying degrees of success. The Vegas Watch guys (the previous linked article) kind of winged it after running the numbers, I have used a slightly different approach. I pulled the Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) as computed by Ken Pomeroy, computing the conference-wide average for PWP, and from other sources I pulled the 2011 stats for all players. I then computed averages for (all tracked player stats, among them...) returning minutes & points scored, and then mapped the teams into one of four quadrants based on whether they had an above/below average PWP (overall PWP for the season) and above/below average returning minutes. I performed the same for PWP and returning scoring.

The method was a useful, but hardly a perfect predictor for the 2010 and 2011 seasons. For the curious, click here to see the 2010 chart. [Note -- that chart was current through early August of 2009. After I posted the analysis, Rutgers dismissed Cory Chandler, and removing his 2009 contributions from Rutgers' list of returning minutes remapped the Scarlet Knights into the red quadrant. West Virginia reinstated suspended guards Joe Mazzulla and Truck Bryant before the beginning of Fall Practice. The addition of the two guards' 2009 contributions repositioned West Virginia farther into "the above average" quadrant, reinforcing perceptions that the Mountaineers would be one of the co-favorites to win the conference in 2010.] and here to see the 2011 chart (a quiet preseason for conference roster moves).

Thoughts on the 2010 & 2011 Charts
Of the three squads which mapped into the "above average" quadrant (Above Average PWP, Ret Mins) on the 2010 chart, two -- Georgetown and West Virginia -- logged better 2010 conference records than 2009, posting a net gain of 6 wins. Villanova, the third "green" team, posted the same record record (13-5) and finished #4 again. One team in the "below average" quadrant (Providence) took a giant step back in 2010 (4-14) from their 2009 (10-8) record, while the other, Rutgers, earned two more wins and moved up one spot (#15 to #14) in the conference standings even as the Scarlet Knights sidestepped a crashing Providence.

The quadrants going into the 2011 season showed Pittsburgh, Georgetown and Villanova in the "above average" quadrant. Pitt bettered their already high standings by going 15-3 (2 wins better than 2010). The Hoyas pushed, posting another 10-8 conference record (and an #8 seed in the conference tournament), while the Wildcats took a large step back, posting a -4 conference wins over their 2010 record. All three teams earned NCAA bids in a post season that saw a record 11 Big East teams earn bids. Villanova joined with Notre Dame as the only schools from the "above average" who failed to equal their previous season's performance.

Of the three "below average" quadrant (less than average PWP and less than average returning minutes) teams, South Florida crashed as suggested, posting -6 conference wins from 2010 to 2011. Rutgers replaced their coach, and made no progress (granted it was a more difficult go in conference play), earning an identical 5-13 record and #13 seed, while Providence also held steady with a 4-14 record and #14 finish. The Friars fired their coach at the end of the season.

Among the programs with winning PWPs, but below average returning minutes (there were six teams), Syracuse, West Virginia and Marquette gave back wins, between them seven total, while Notre Dame, Connecticut and Louisville gained wins -- seven actually (no attempt here to suggest a correlation between the two groups) -- with the Irish producing the biggest gain with 4 wins, but the Huskies won the war, taking the National Championship even though they finished #9 in the conference. Of the four teams that plotted into the "low PWP/high Ret. Minutes" quadrant, St. John's fired their coach and improved dramatically (+6 wins), DePaul fired their coach and had a push (one win each of the 2010 & 2011 seasons). Seton Hall fired their coach and lost ground (-2 wins over 2010), while Cincinnati did not fire their coach and picked up 4 wins (chemistry and maturity perhaps?).

The conference average for returning minutes is down from last season (56% from 62%), as is the PWP (82% down to 66% -- additional evidence that the conference was more challenging last season?); If the PWP drop is predictive, the 2012 edition of the Big East will be a bit easier than the 2011 edition, whether the 2012 mid/end of season aerials will show a different, a greater distribution of teams to the "high or low" quadrants...take with a grain of salt. Out of curiosity, I decided to plot the teams using Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP -- overall again) and scoring, that is, percentage of returning points. Of the 16 teams plotted, only one (Connecticut) mapped to a different quadrant..."The Value of Kemba Walker"?

Hints About 2012
If the trend for teams in the upper right quadrant (Villanova and Notre Dame excepted) is an improved (or at worst, the same) record over the previous season, the six teams (a very large number for that quadrant, by the way) are in for a collective good year. Indeed, that Pitt, Louisville, Cincinnati and Syracuse are on track for good seasons does not contradict the consensus of preseason projections so far. Marquette and UConn are surprises...for only a moment. Buzz Williams has been consistently under valued by the press and fans from schools other than Marquette. I expect the Warriors will earn another NCAA bid next March, marking every year in Williams' tenure that they have danced. Despite some early off season waffling from Coach Jim Calhoun, the coach with the conference's second longest tenure will be back for his 26th season. If last season's run to the National Championship rekindled the coach's enthusiasm, the recent retirement of Athletic Director Jeff Hathaway did nothing to dampen it. The loss of Kemba Walker noted, Jeremy Lamb's performance in the U19 World Championship Tournament in July should give UConn fans reason to believe their team will have scorers to step in.

Rutgers and Seton Hall have mapped to the lower left (below average) quadrant. If the trend (Rutgers in 2010 excepted) holds, those two will continue to struggle in the conference's lower division (if not the bottom quartile) for another season. What to make of St. John's and Georgetown? Villanova's season-ending swoons in 2010 and 2011 caught most of the media (and fan) attention. Few beyond the Hoya Faithful have noticed that Georgetown suffered through a 5-6 ending in 2010 that included a first round loss in the NCAA Tournament, and that 2011's end was an even more disheartening 1-6 skid that included a first round NCAA exit for the second consecutive post season. The Johnnies' remarkable Big East season cloud the memories of the struggles in Coach Lavin's earliest days as the Red Storm mentor. The veteran coach had an experienced and very hungry group of seniors to work with, a luxury he won't have in 2012. Late 2011 post game pressers touched repeatedly on prospects in the year after Dwight Hardy and DJ Kennedy, and even the coach acknowleged 2012 would be one long learning curve. Mid/late conference season may be an interesting time for Red Storm fans, but the early parts of 2012 will probably have a few hard-to-watch affairs.

Programs in the "Above/Below" Quadrants
How does Notre Dame, which has mapped into the below average for returning minutes continue to maintain an above average PWP? Coach Mike Brey seems to have a constant stream of transfers to mix with red shirts and true freshmen nearly every season. Ben Hansbrough, Scott Martin and (eligible in 2013) Garrick Sherman out of Michigan State. While a few schools have been adverse to accepting transfers (not to mention JUCOs), having an experienced player practice for two semesters with the squad (even though they have less eligibility than a true freshman) before taking the court can give the squad a strong replacement with no noticible on-the-court learning curve. Although the 12 programs mapped into the lower right quadrant (below average returning minutes, above average PWP) in the 2010 and 2011 seasons have fared well in conference play, which may bring comfort to members of the Nova Nation and fans of the Mountaineers. Both must replace minutes and scoring from classes graduated in 2011. While West Virginia can count on rising seniors and a steady supply of transfers and JUCOs to fill out the squad. Villanova however, has a squad heavy with juniors and freshmen, and on the heels of last season's late season struggles, may find it harder to maintain a winning program in 2012.

The upper left quadrant has been something of a coach's coffin corner. Of the six programs that mapped to that quadrant in 2010 and/or 2011, four were about to replace, or had just replaced their head coaches. Cincinnati's Mick Cronin dodged that bullet, but will South Florida's Stan Heath escape a second time (the Bulls were there in 2010)? Providence has mapped into the quadrant in 2012, but the Friars replaced Keno Davis in the 2011 off season, which means five of the seven programs to map there have replaced their coaches since 2009.

Things We Know We Don't Know
Villanova and Georgetown's experiences in 2010 and 2011 suggest that chemistry may be undervalued when looking at a stats-based projection. Fans overvalue the impact of incoming freshmen, and the media does too, but with virtually no statistical history with the team, freshmen are ignored in these charts -- immunizing these charts from the hype. Yes there are impact freshmen (Carmelo Anthony, Luke Harangody, DeJuan Blair), but enough to affect more than one or two conference teams in a season? I feel largely the same about JUCOs, though they do bring more collegiate-level experience with them, they tend to play support, rather than impact roles, for any destination team. Maybe this season, with St. John's having immediate need roles for Nurideen Lindsey and God’s Gift Achiuwa (having lost over 95% of their minutes from 2011...), those two may have an impact approaching the level fans anticipate annually in other programs. Properly assessing the value of transfers however, has proven to be the bigger challenge. Unlike the true freshmen and JUCOs -- most recognize (on some level) they have a learning curve to overcome -- the impact of red shirt freshmen and transfers are unrepresented by charts like the ones used here over the past three off seasons. Those players often find their way into the regular rotation early, because the coaching staff has had a year to observe and work with the player. Coaches develop confidence in the player which is not measured/reflected in a statistical database. Teams this season that will put potential impact transfers out on the floor include South Florida (Victor Rudd) and Marquette (Jamil Wilson -- Buzz Williams again).

On Second Thought -- Plotting Trendlines for Big East Teams (pt 2)

Through the Middle Section of the Conference
While there is something appealing about taking the conference by quartiles -- Big East observers have only another year or two for that approach -- I decided to look at the teams in three parts, taking about five teams with each look. The decision was not random, as the trendlines for teams grouped in this way, highlights a number of common elements...similar records & progressions. As in "Second Thoughts: Part 1" I have highlighted those (six this time...) teams discussed in this post in the year-end conference standings:

	W	L	Pct.
Pittsburgh	15	3	0.833
Notre Dame	14	4	0.776
Syracuse	12	6	0.667
Louisville	12	6	0.667
St. John's	12	6	0.667
Cincinnati	11	7	0.611
West Virginia	11	7	0.611
Georgetown	10	8	0.556
Connecticut	9	9	0.500
Villanova	9	9	0.500
Marquette	9	9	0.500
Seton Hall	7	11	0.389
Rutgers	5	13	0.278
Providence	4	14	0.222
South Florida	3	15	0.167
Cincinnati	1	17	0.056

(T6 #6) Cincinnati

Multiple intersecting trendlines suggest...

Third order polynomial trendlines tend to resist wild gyrations, which makes them a good tool for identifying "long term" trends. Cincinnati's season, per the trendline, suggests a mild slump around games 5 through 12, and indeed the Bearcats' record through that seven game stretch was 3-4 (they finished 11-7 and secured the #6 seed in the BET). Coach Mick Cronin, possibly the conference's strongest hot seat candidate going into the season, secured his tenure (at least in the near term) with a team performance that exceeded preseason expectations. An especially strong 5-1 finish of the conference regular season featured wins over Louisville, Marquette and twice over Georgetown, NCAA invitees all. The lone loss through that run was Connecticut, the team which also eliminated Cincinnati in the second round of the NCAA Tournament (and went on to win the National Championship).

(T9 #9) Connecticut

Ahhh, A double helix, perhaps?

The Huskies offer one of the more interesting trendlines from the conference season. Like many teams that finished in this middle third of the conference. Connecticut's trendlines suggest a team that was "evolving" as the season progressed. What sets Connecticut's trendlines apart from the usual in season slump is the suggestion the source of the "pause" was defense. Note the adjusted offensive trendline shows no signs of regressing through the season. The Huskies were one of two squads whose offense (adjusted for the competition) appeared to improve (no regression) over the course of the season.

(8 #8) Georgetown

A curved double intersection like Cincinnati's, but...

The adjusted chart suggests Coach John Thompson's squad peaked around the time of the Villanova game (game 9 on the chart), and then declined through the end of the season. The Hoyas finishd the 2011 season on a four game losing streak that began with the last two games of the conference season and continued through the Wednesday round in the Big East Tournament, culminating with their second consecutive first round of the NCAA Tournament. Junior guard Chris Wright missed three of the games through that stretch, but the chart suggests the offense was in full decline well before Wright missed games. Note the second intersection in the chart, around game 14, was an eight point loss (70-78) to Connecticut. The Huskies also eliminated the Hoyas in New York City exactly three weeks later.

(T9 #11) Marquette

Slump & recovery...

The adjusted chart suggests a decline/slump through much of the season, as Coach Buzz Williams' program bottomed out around the Georgetown game (game #12), then began a slow rebound through the end of the regular season. The Golden Eagles did finish the regular season on a two game losing streak, one that may well have put their NCAA bid on a bubble going into New York City. Marquette rebounded nicely however, running to the Sweet Sixteen where they fell, 81-63, to North Carolina.

(T9 #10) Villanova

The season-long slump?

The season-long decline of the Wildcats' offensive efficiency is clearer in the adjusted efficiency chart. Many of my post game analysis pointed to defensive lapses (also indicated in the trendlines), but the chart hints strongly the offensive decline was persistent and steady throughout the conference season. Stepping back a bit, the decline, from just under 120 (118?) down to about 101, was dramatic for an 18 game stretch. Unlike other teams in this group, there was no rebound...

(T6 #7) West Virginia

No double intersection here either

The trendlines suggest that West Virginia's offensive slump was well timed. The Mountaineers' record from games three through nine was 6-1, with an eye popping 89.9 adjusted defensive efficiency that masked a 10% decline in offensive efficiency during that time period. Coach Bob Huggins' squad finished the conference regular season with an 11-7 conference record (tied for #6 with Cincinnati, earning the 'Eers a #7 seed for the Big East Tournament). West Virginia earned a #5 seed to the NCAA Tournament and lost in the second round to Final Four-bound Kentucky.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: NCAA East Region Semi-Finals

by Ray Floriani

NEWARK, NJ - Probably fitting with a city of Newark's long history there will be a regional final between two programs with a lengthy, stored tradition of their own. Kentucky will face North Carolina Sunday for the right to go to Houston.

The Nasto's stand at the Fanfest.
Received a complimentary reginette (it is very good) from the staff.

The scores...

Team	Score			Team
North Carolina	81		63	Marquette
Kentucky	62		60	Ohio State

The game one pace and possessions saw the Tar Heels stepped things up and dictate a tempo more in their favor. Only a strong second half salvaged any offensive efficiency for Marquette. At intermission their OE was an almost unprintable 44.

Marquette players at the anthem

The pace and efficiency:

tr>td>North Carolina

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Marquette	73	86
69	117

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Marquette	48	24	41	25
North Carolina	51	19	48	10

A tale of two halves. A first half 19-0 run by the Tar Heels basically opened up the game and was a deciding factor. Marquette trailed 40-15 at the half. In addition they had 12 turnovers, 6 field goals, zero assists and a 35% TO rate. The second half they shot and defended better but never seriously challenged North Carolina. That 25 point spot midway was too much to overcome.

the packed Rock

North Carolina owned a 29-15 edge in points off turnovers, the damage done mostly the first half. They also outscored Marquette 46-32 in points in the paint. In somewhat of a stat oddity, Marquette led 42-5 in bench points. Two reasons. Non-starters, Davante Gardner (16 points) and Jae Crowder (11) were two of Marquette's better point producers. Secondly, Roy Williams used a short, in numbers, rotation with six players getting 21 or more minutes.

Buzz Williams in the post game press conference
More questions than answers...

The Second Game
Game two, no surprise in the pace. These teams were content to grind this one out.

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Kentucky	59	105
Ohio State	60	100

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Kentucky	52	25	26	19
Ohio State	38	29	39	12

The obligatory cheer shot.
Yours truly with the North Carolina cheer squad

Brandon Knight was 2 for 10 when he tried to come off a pick and roll, was defended, and opted for a mid-range jumper instead. The shot found the bottom of the net and proved to be the difference in the Kentucky victory. The late season maturity of Knight cannot be measured statistically. On the game he was 3 of 10 (1 of6 from three) for nine points. But in the stretch the freshman guard stepped up to hit a big trey before the game winner. Don't forget, he scored two points, again the game decider in the first round win over Princeton. With Knight, it's quality not quantity.

Kentucky was hit hard on the offensive glass. Normally they give up a 30% OREB percentage to their opposition. Ohio State put up above average numbers on the offensive glass, largely due to Jared Sullinger's 8 offensive boards.

The Wildcats, though , compensated with a strong showing on defense, limiting turnovers and having Brandon Knight on the floor in the clutch.

Notes
Attendance was 18,343...North Carolina was led by Tyler Zeller with 27 points 12 boards. John Henson teamed with Zeller to form a tough inside game. Henson added 14 points, a dozen rebounds and 5 blocks...Marquette finishes at 22-15.…Marquette's perimeter threat Darius Johnson-Odom struggled through a 2 of 9 shooting night finishing with 7 points…Jared Sullinger led all scorers in game two with 21 points…Josh Harrellson paced Kentucky with 17...Some Manley numbers:

	Manley
	Efficiency
Tyler Zeller, UNC	35
Josh Harrellson, UK	27
Jared Sullinger OSU	26
DeAndre Liggins, UK	21
John Henson, UNC	20
Harrison Barnes, UNC	20
Davante Gardiner, Marquette	17

On a per minute basis, Zeller's efficiency was an off the charts 1.30. Zeller played 27 minutes. Jimmy Butler of Marquette had a solid 16 efficiency. Johnson-Odom struggled, as noted, with a -2 metric. Kentucky's Brandon Knight had only a 4 efficiency. No complaints, I'm sure, from coach Cal, given the outcome.

The Rock about 1:30 am after a long but enjoyable evening

Performance Versus Expectation -- Big East Coaches in the NCAA Tournament

Evaluating Post Season Performance...
Neil Paine over at Sports Reference/College Basketball triggered a spirited discussion earlier this week when he (a little frustrated with early exits by Pittsburgh & Texas) posted examination of the underperforming and overachieving coaches from the "64 Team Era" (1985 and forward). His first look considered the expectation of winning in the team's (and coach's) last game of each tournament in which they played, a method that used the difference in seed to determine the probability for a win. His second method, using Peter Tiernan's Performance Against Seed Expectation (PASE) is a method I have used in the last few tournaments to measure conference performances (see Dan Hanner's Day 2 piece over at RealGM.com for progress this season...not good for the Big East, someone -- or two -- will have to make a deep run to bring the conference in line with expectations). While Paine's "Best" and "Worst" lists were interesting (two former Villanova coaches make the lists...one in the Best and the other in the Worst...I leave it to the reader to speculate, or link and remove all doubt), I wanted to know how the current group of coaches were doing...

		NCAA Record
Team	Coach	App	W	L	Pct.	PASE	Diff.
Connecticut	Jim Calhoun	17	45	14	0.759	38.5	6.5
Syracuse	Jim Boeheim	22	40	21	0.656	37.0	3.0
Villanova	Jay Wright	7	12	7	0.632	10.6	1.4
West Virginia	Bob Huggins	4	7	4	0.636	5.7	1.3
Louisville/PC	Rick Pitino	6	11	6	0.647	9.8	1.3
Marquette	Buzz Williams	3	3	2	0.600	2.9	0.1
Cincinnati	Mick Cronin	1	1	1	0.500	1.2	-0.2
St. John's	Steve Lavin	1	0	1	0.000	1.2	-1.2
Georgetown	John Thompson III	5	7	5	0.583	8.8	-1.7
Notre Dame	Mike Brey	7	5	7	0.417	7.3	-2.3
Pittsburgh	Jamie Dixon	11	8	8	0.579	15.6	-4.6

I decided to apply PASE data to the NCAA record each coach compiled -- while heading Big East programs -- to see how they ranked. I sorted by most successsful to least successful. Both Jim Calhoun and Buzz Williams are highlighted in green because the record book for 2011 is, at this writing, still subject to revision (Calhoun's latest win, a 74-67 win over San Diego State is noted here). Results of games will not, however, diminish their standings versus their Big East brethren. Note that Rick Pitino has NCAA games while at Providence in addition to his run at Louisville. I counted both as part of his total (but not those NCAA tournaments he participated in as Coach of Boston University, Kentucky and pre-Big East Louisville -- I applied the same to Bob Huggins -- his Cincinnati record was not considered here.). Lack of tournament appearances while helming a Big East program explains why Stan Heath (South Florida), Oliver Purnell (DePaul) and Mike Rice (Rutgers) are not listed, though all have appearances with previous programs.

Performances, Good & Bad
That the Deans of the Conference Jim Calhoun and Jim Boeheim top the list should be no surprise. Each has had a long and successful run at their respective schools (Connecticut and Syracuse respectively). Boeheim's total does not, by the way, include his NCAA record pre-1985, probably a good thing for the record shown here. The Orange mentor's net wins versus PASE yo-yo'd around zero from 1985 to 1990, when it plunged into the negatives through 1995. Like Dixon, Boeheim's teams logged strong conference records during that period, keeping the wolves at bay. With his adoption of the 2-3 zone (and continued strong recruiting) his net versus PASE, revived reaching a peak +7.7 in 2004, the tournament after Carmelo Anthony and his only National Championship. Thanks no doubt to the Devendorf and Harris years among others, his net has again dipped as his team underperformed in four of the last five NCAA tournaments in which they participated. Jamie Dixon comes out at the bottom of this list, a paradox given the Panthers' undeniable success during the regular season and in the Big East Tournament. The Pitt fan-base excoriated him over their latest tournament loss, but a more level-headed Athletic Administration has to know he is a tremendous leader for the program and will get to the Final Four sooner or later. Dixon has made the tournament each of his eight seasons at Pitt, but it seems drawing the "inside seeds" (#2, #3, etc.) are killing him. Notre Dame's Mike Brey also under performs, but unlike Dixon, his teams have also performed inconsistently during conference play. Brey's Big East record is better than his overall. Like several other coaches (Jay Wright, Jim Calhoun & John Thompson for example), Brey coached at Delaware in a non-BCS conference, before moving over to Notre Dame, and has a few 0'fer tournament appearances on his resume. Those low seed "almost" games against high-seeded (BCS conference?) opponents probably caught Notre Dame's eye, but close doesn't count on the record book. Those wondering what happened to John Thompson III's Georgetown program should note that since the Hoya's Final Four run in 2007, they have missed the tournament completely one post season (2009), and have notched net negative appearances in the three tournaments they have appeared in. First round losses in 2010 & 2011 in particular are brutal for the program. Leaving out their CUSA records, both Rick Pitino and Bob Huggins have posted positive nets so far. Pitino however, benefits from his previous stint at Providence College. His 1987 run to the Final Four as a #6 seed started him out on his run at Louisville (in the Big East) with a +2.8 net. His first three NCAA appearances with Louisville as a CUSA entrant produced a +1.4 net, solely on the Cardinals' run to the Final Four in 2005 as a #4 seed. Louisville fans who have become nervous with Pitino's results lately have a quantitative value on which to hang their hats -- a -1.5 net versus PASE since Louisville joined the Big East.

What About Coach Wright?
Villanova's coach, like Thompson, benefits from not adding his -0.423 to his Big East record. The Wildcats struggled to make the Dance under Coach Wright, but once they broke through, in 2005, they have compiled an impressive seven consecutive trips since. Like Thompson, Coach Wright's last two appearances have put a drag on his wins versus PASE net, accounting for a net -2.02 in those two appearances.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: NCAA East Region From the Rock

by Ray Floriani

NEWARK, NJ - In this piece we will look at that efficiency margins of the four teams in the Newark Regionals. Efficiency margin is the difference between offensive and defensive efficiency. Obviously, the larger the number the better.

Yours truly, the coffee 'addict'
A Newark favorite near the Rock

Among the four schools, Ohio State is the leader in EM (efficiency margin). The numbers:

	Efficiency
Team	Off.	Def.	Net
Ohio State	121	98	+28
Kentucky	114	96	+18
North Carolina	107	94	+13
Marquette	111	101	+10

Looking at the first two rounds of the tournament, Ohio State is still the leader with a very impressive number. The average EM of the four through two rounds:

	EM
	Avg.
Ohio State	+49.0
Marquette	+12.0
North Carolina	+10.0
Kentucky	+7.5

Downtown Newark, Broad Street on Thursday

Ohio state was +50 in their first round win over 16 seed UTSA. Buckeyes, expected to be challenged by George Mason were +48 in the second round rout over the Patriots.

Kentucky, Marquette and North Carolina's EM were affected by close contests. John Calipari's club was +3 in that squeaker over Princeton in round one. Carolina's narrow win over Washington in round two saw the Heels post a +4.

Ohio state's Jared Sullinger signing autographs after practice

Marquette had two tough games en route to Newark. Their win over Syracuse was a +6 EM. The Xavier game in round one, was competitive ( a 66-55 Marquette decision) but their EM was a healthy +18.

The NCAA tournament provides tougher competition and sterner tests, even in the early rounds. Ohio State, given their numbers, enters the Prudential Center playing at a very high level on both ends of the floor.

The rock during UNC practice

Got to chat with Marquette assistant Scott Monarch. Head coach Buzz Williams and the Marquette staff buy into and use tempo-free statistics a great deal. We discussed the cutoff rate (20%) of turnover rate or percentage. Monarch agreed Marquette's TO rate was too high 22% against Syracuse. The deciding factor though, was the Orange's TO problems with a 28% showing. At any rate, always great to discuss tempo-free with a fellow follower of the study.

Looking towards the Rock from Branford Place
A church, one of Newark's many historic buildings,
is in the foreground

greyCat adds -- Both Ray and I will be covering the East Region Friday night and Sunday. I will be a panelist for the Live Blog event over at Rush the Court Ray and I will provide post game analysis over here at Villanova by the Numbers. Drop in to the Live Blog tomorrow night & check back here for post game thoughts on the East Region.

Marquette University Post Game: Milestones

1,000 Points and Counting
Trading buckets with Marquette, with just over a double digit lead, Corey Fisher took a rainbow pass and turned to drive the lane with 10:13 left in the game. He paused and elevated just outside of the foul line for what looked for all the world like a field goal attempt. At least that is what the two Marquette defenders thought as they converged on Fish. Fish however had other thoughts, and spotting Antonio Pena sweepping unguarded inside of the arc that separates two's from three's, the senior point guard lofted a pass to his classmate who took another step or two, caught the pass and elevated, seemingly in a single uninterrupted motion and launched a field goarl attempt of his own. Nothing but net as Villanova pushed the lead out to 14 for the second (and last) time in the half. Villanova's senior forward went on to score four more points in the game, bringing his total to 14. But points nine and ten counted as points 999 & 1,000 in Pena's career at Villanova. Though the Wildcats had half of the second period to play, Pena's milestone seemed to be the climax of the game. Marquette coach Buzz Williams called a timeout after Chris Otule's layup, and subbed in his "rebounding" team, Joe Fulce and Jae Crowder. Over the next two possessions the Warriors worked Villanova's lead back to single digits. By continuously substituting on nearly every possession change, the Marquette coach alternately called for presses on the Villanova guards and defensive board crashing against Villanova's bigs, and over the last seven minutes of the game managed to nibble down on Villanova's lead by one and two point chuncks. Double technicals on Isaiah Armwood and Jae Crowder, and a fifth foul on Crowder two minutes later -- with 2:29 still to play and Villanova up by six -- seemed to tilt the board advantage decisively back to Villanova, and the Wildcats preserved that edge, complements of 7-9 shooting from the line.

The Villanova blogosphere has gone about their business of reporting/commenting on the result. VUHoops.com posted two pieces in the hours since the game, their recap with player/team grades...and a bit of a comment with the headline "Another Close Call". The morning brought a more reflective piece from Frank, "The Morning After: Marquette". The Nova Blog also posted a morning after piece (which reminded me a bit of my undergraduate days many, many years ago) Nova...Pena...The Good, The Bad & The Ugly -- is this Chris' "movie period"? Throw Your V's Up continues to map scoring differentials as the game progresses. He maps the Marquette game and provides a number of astute observations about the players. The Marquette blogosphere has a few posts, led by the signature blog, Cracked Sidewalks. Tim Blair penned a Marquette-centric recap that laments the Warrors' defensive lapses. Ink journalist Tod Roziak penned a set of post game notes in his Golden Eagle Blog, as a complement to his newspaper game recap. The Athletic Department website posted the official boxscore and the AP wire story, "No. 12 Wildcats Tops Marquette, 75-70". The breakdown by halves...

Opponent:		Marquette University
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	31.8	33.3	65.2
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	106.8	123.0	115.1		78.6	135.0	107.4
eFG%	43.3	55.6	47.9		38.5	56.1	48.3
TORate	9.4	27.0	18.4		18.9	12.0	15.3
OR%	26.3	45.5	33.3		17.6	50.0	33.3
FTA/FGA	30.0	133.3	68.8		19.2	27.3	23.7
FTM/FGA	26.7	116.7	60.4		19.2	24.2	22.0
ARate	50.0	77.8	61.9		55.6	33.3	40.7
Blk%	3.3	5.6	4.2		11.5	0.0	5.1
Stl%	6.2	9.0	7.6		15.9	9.0	12.4
PPWS	0.99	1.39	1.18		0.88	1.21	1.07
2FG%	47.6	58.3	51.5		41.2	65.4	55.8
3FG%	22.2	33.3	26.7		22.2	14.3	18.8
FT%	88.9	87.5	87.9		100.0	88.9	92.9
%2FG	58.8	34.1	45.3		56.0	75.6	68.6
%3FG	17.6	14.6	16.0		24.0	6.7	12.9
%FT	23.5	51.2	38.7		20.0	17.8	18.6

Green and red are used again here to highlight elements that were above or below season-long performance levels. The table takes on the appearance of a bi-polar Christmas decoration, with "good" and "bad" delineated by halves. Both teams made half-time adjustments, and they, to varying degrees, met their objectives. Both teams emphasized defensive rebounding in the first half, and it worked as each limited the other to <30% of their missed field goal attempts. The adjustment towards offensive rebounding in the second half boosted each squad's numbers under their respective baskets, with the counter effect of giving away rebounds at the other end. Is the Nova Nation marking the passing of the "Shoot 'em up" game strategy? Five of the past six games the team has played for fewer than projected (per Ken Pomeroy -- see "Schedule" section on the Team Page) possessions and in three of the five games the "miscalculation" was by 5, an 8% deviation from the projection. The only game where the 'Cats were above the projection was Providence (and we remember how that went). Couple more minutes for Mouphtaou Yarou & his pairing with Antonio Pena with a more deliberate pace and we are watching this team transition to a more deliberate, half-court friendly style of play? The next few games, especially against Pittsburgh on 2/12, should tell. .

This & That
1. The Wildcats used nine players, but only six received 10 or more minutes of playing time. The PT differential was stark. Maalik Wayns, the rotation player who received the smallest double digit allocation drew 27 minutes (tied with surprise starter Isaiah Armwood), while the next nearest in the rotation, James Bell, received four minutes. Dom Cheek and Mo Sutton, the last two off the bench, received more time in the second half than the first, earned two and three minutes respectively. The disparity in minutes seems strange given the minute distribution in games throughout the season, but Throw Your V's Up may have an explanation. In a look at the efficiency of the rotation, the blogger concluded the bench was extremely inconsistent. Staring at a 14 point advantage, the staff may have been thinking that it was time to give the bench some run, but at the game tightened quickly from the 10:13 mark in, the staff may have held off.
2. In a game that saw Antonio Pena became the 54^th player to score more than 1,000 points in his career, Corey Fisher scored his 1,500^th point, becoming the 25^th Villanova men's player to do so. Noted in the AP story at the top, Fisher, Stokes and Pena are the second trio of seniors in team history to pass the 1,000 point mark. Corey Stokes has scored 1,216 points through the Marquette game.
3. Sophomore Mouphtaou Yarou paced the team with a game-high 18 points, the first time the center scored game-high points in his college career. Mouph was a terrific 5-8 from the field (a 62.5% eFG%) and (even better...) 8-10 from the line, for a 1.41 PPWS. Jimmy Butler and Darius Odom-Johnson paced Marquette with 15 points apiece. Fish chipped in 17 points on 5-11 shooting (1-4 from 3, 4-7 from 2 -- a 50% eFG%) and 6-6 from the line for a 1.23 PPWS.

Records, Next Up...
Villanova's records stand at 18-4 overall and 6-3 in conference. Marquette drops to 14-9 overall, 5-5 in conference play. The Warriors are 5-5 in their last 10 games, 1-3 in their last four. Villanova readies for the last game in this home stand, as they host West Virginia on Saturday at the Wells Fargo Center. Marquette, having two more games to do on their road trip, takes a week off, and then swings South to Florida for a game with the South Florida Bulls next Wednesday (2/9), then north (relative to Florida) to visit Georgetown the following Saturday (2/13).

Guest Contributor: Ray Floriani -- Big East & A-10 Media Days

by Ray Floriani

New York City, NY -On Wednesday of last week the Big East held its media day at Madison Square Garden. The following day the Atlantic Ten hosted their event at the CBS College Sports studios at Chelsea Piers, about fifteen blocks south of MSG.

The dawn of a new season with the Big East media day at MSG

As a rule the media days are an opportunity to touch base with media colleagues and discuss the upcoming campaign with coaches who are in a much more relaxed state of mind, as opposed to handling a second straight loss with a road game looming in mid-January. On the flip side however is the fact that a lot of your quotes are of the generic brand. Such as "we will be ready to play every night...our seniors must step up...nothing is easy in this (fill in league name) conference..."

At both events I tried to get beyond that and discuss coaching concepts, such as preparing to play on the road, pre-season conditioning etc. Also took the opportunity to discuss tempo free statistics and study with Buzz Williams of Marquette and Chris Mack of Xavier.

Williams has been on the job as head coach of Marquette for two seasons. Already his penchant for organization and teaching the game are becoming widespread. We discussed the idea of game pace and the four factors. As he asked me to name and discuss them he wrote down the formulas in a notebook, in incredibly and painstakingly neat penmanship. We discussed turnover rate for awhile. The threshold, according to tempo free is 20%. At or above that figure for possessions ending in turnovers spells a below par offense. "An offense ending one fifth of their possessions throwing the ball away is awful...", Williams added. "At Marquette we pride ourselves on minimizing turnovers." A look at statistics in Big East games the last two years shows Williams is on the money.

	Turnover	Conference
Season	Rate	Rank
2010	14.8	second
2009	15.3	second

The Marquette mentor also said effective field goal percentage is a revealing stat. Simply, you are credited more for hitting a three point field goal attempt than a two point attempt. "Shooting well from three point range was definitely a strength for us last year", Williams admitted. Again, a breakdown of the Marquette field goal shooting for 2010 bears this out.

	Pct.
Two Point Shooting	42.3%
Three Point Shooting	39.3%
effective Field Goal (eFG%)	50.7%

Analytical, organized but not without a sense of humor. One writer asked how practice was going Williams replied, "on Friday I would have bought my team. By Saturday sold them. Monday the market was closed."

Chelsea Piers, site of the A-10 media day,
was in fact a pier along the Hudson

Thursday at the A-10 media day...
...the opportunity to discuss tempo free concepts with Chris Mack was a major objective. Last March at the conference quarterfinals in Atlantic City, we sat behind the Xavier bench as they battled Dayton. Each time out an assistant asked a question of two graduate assistants seated behind us. Turns out they were charting possessions and that information was utilized with the game in progress.

"We are definitely tuned into Kenpom (Ken Pomeroy) with what we do," Mack admitted. "We look and study his possession numbers and ranking on a weekly basis. We are very interested in seeing the numbers our opponents are putting up."

Mack knows the possession based formulas. During the game the staff will record possessions longhand to assure 100%, as opposed to 98% accuracy. "We will use the numbers in time outs," he said. "We definitely use them at the half to point things out and of course post game."

Mack is interested in pace of the game as well as offensive and defensive efficiency. He studies the four factors closely. "We look at our numbers and if we are deficient in an area as rebounding then we will look at the tape to see just why."

Mack also told of an interesting metric he terms a 'kill'. "Stops on the defensive end are very important to us," Mack said. "If we get three consecutive stops that is a kill. If we get seven kills in a game we are almost certain we will win."

The legions of tempo free followers are growing. Significantly, they are now entering college coaching staffs.

St.Bonaventure's Mark Schmidt (l)
and John Giannini of LaSalle (r)
share a lighter moment at the media day luncheon

A Villanova Aside...
...working on an informal survey of toughest places to play on the Big East road, I spoke with Jay Wright and Corey Fisher. Wright felt West Virginia, Syracuse and Pitt were the three toughest, "but for different reasons." Discussing further Wright noted it’s no coincidence all three locales have home teams with talented players. "Ultimately," he said, "players not buildings win games."

Villanova coach Jay Wright meets the media

On hearing the question Fisher smiled answering "Can I say Villanova?" Fisher went on to cast his 'vote' with Syracuse. "The crowd is huge and seems right on you," he said, "plus the arena is configured in a different way."