Rising Juniors -- Nine to Watch

What We Are Looking For
The Big East Conference made this job a lot more difficult back in 2007 when they increased the size of their season-ending "All-Big East...Team"s from five (the traditional number) to eleven. Toss in the three or so Honorable Mentions, and the number of recognized players goes to 25 or so, up from the 15 - 18 most conferences recognize (three "All" Teams, not including a Freshman/Rookie Team, plus two - three Honorable Mentions). The Big East switched back in 2008-09, giving me another seven to eight players to consider for this list. Using Pomeroy's classification system as a guide, I am scouting the "Role" or "Significant Contributor" player, someone who took about 16%-23% of their team's possessions last season, but could grow into a "Major Contributor" or "Go-to Guy" player over the course of the course of next season -- though most probably won't. Pomeroy discusses growth "probabilities" in "Putting Individual Efficiency into Perspective" over at The Basketball Prospectus back in 2007. One thing about these players is clear -- they tend to push at the upper limit of their growth curve each season.

			On Offense...
Player	Coll	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	PPWS
Kevin Jones	WVU	81.2	124.6	18.5	21.5	1.18
Jeff Robinson	Hall	50.1	118.8	19.1	20.9	1.14
Terrence Jennings	LVL	31.6	116.1	18.3	18.6	1.22
Kris Joseph	Cuse	69.6	111.1	19.6	18.4	1.14
Jordan Theodore	Hall	64.5	109.5	19.1	17.7	1.04
Darius Johnson-Odom	MU	73.1	107.0	22.9	24.2	1.16
Yancy Gates	'Nati	62.8	106.9	21.3	22.7	1.07
Augustus Gilchrist	USF	38.1	104.8	25.3	24.6	1.16
Darryl Bryant	WVU	55.0	102.7	23.9	21.4	1.00

The list contains the last member of the Big East's All-Rookie Team from 2009 still in school, Cincinnati's Yancy Gates. Every one else from that team has departed for life in the pros. Gates, whose time with the Bearcats has featured an off-and-on relationship with Head Coach Mick Cronin, found himself, more often than not, the 3^rd last season, and that step back allowed him to trade efficiency for usage, a common trade-off. With seniors Deonta Vaughn and Steven Toyloy graduated, and Lance Stephenson gone in the draft last June, the opportunity to step forward and play a major role in the fate of this team this season is there -- if Gates can stay out of foul trouble (he averaged about 3.8 fouls per 40 minutes last season, per Ken Pomeroy) and maintain or enhance his efficiency even as he takes a larger share of the possessions and shots. The offensively challenged Bearcats (a recurring theme in Coach Cronin's tenure), will have to look to a committee of veteran players, centered on Gates no doubt (and freshman pf Justin Jackson?), to make up for the departed offense. With the spotlight on senior Da'Sean Butler and All Big East Devin Ebanks, more than a few observers missed 6-8 250 lb bfc Kevin Jones, yet he played a crucial role in Coach Huggins' Four Forwards Offense. Though guard-like duties fell to Butler and one of Truck Bryant (see below) or Joe Mazzulla if they were available, Jones proved to be extremely efficient in a just-out-of-the-limelight "Role" player status. Jones was the 3^rd option on offense, but like Gates, two of the bigger options ahead of him last season, Butler and Ebanks, have moved on. Coach Huggins recognized his value, playing Jones a whopping 81% of the time in 2010. Jones' teammate Darryl Bryant should see his possession and shot rates climb this season as well. Bryant, whose effectiveness may have been compromised by personal and health issues in 2010, has the potential to see his role in the offense expand to "Major Contributor" (Poss% 25%-28%) levels, but will have to improve his shot conversion and limit his turnover rate, if he expects to see his efficiency (and playing time) climb. Seton Hall's Jeff Robinson is one of four JUCO/transfers on this list. Times change -- there was a point in time when transfer "stars" were so rare they often drew special attention from the media and coaching staffs. Though he did not qualify for play until the end of the Fall 2009 Semester, Robinson was so effective during the conference portion of the Hall's schedule that he sent starter Robert Mitchell to the bench. Robinson, along with teammates Herb Pope (also a transfer) & Jeremy Hazell, flirted briefly with the NBA draft, but (all) decided to return to South Orange for another season. Recruited by departed coach Bobby Gonzalez, Robinson is a 'tweener, who has the size of a #2/#3 with the skill set of a slasher. He will see even more floor time this season if his defensive rebounding matched his offensive board work (see below). Robinson's teammate and fellow "Watch List"er Jordan Theodore should see a larger role in the offense now that Eugene Harvey and Keon Lawrence have moved on. Theodore has much the same conversion deficiency as Truck Bryant, but without the turnovers and other baggage Bryant may carry.

			Four Factors...
						FTA
Player	Coll	%Min	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
Kevin Jones	WVU	81.2	57.6	12.0	10.9	28.5
Jeff Robinson	Hall	50.1	54.3	9.2	8.5	35.0
Terrence Jennings	'Ville	31.6	61.7	13.6	17.4	34.8
Kris Joseph	Cuse	69.6	50.8	7.7	18.2	59.8
Jordan Theodore	Hall	64.5	47.5	3.0	16.2	37.8
Darius Johnson-Odom	MU	73.1	56.4	2.0	18.1	28.7
Yancy Gates	'Nati	62.8	52.2	11.0	15.1	30.3
Augustus Gilchrist	USF	38.1	52.4	9.3	20.0	54.5
Darryl Bryant	WVU	55.0	42.4	2.7	21.6	56.0

A summer ago Coach Rick Pitino tabbed Terrence Jennings "the key" to Cardinal success in 2010. Though he brought energy to the line-up, Jennings was unable to develop a tandem playing relationship with Samardo Samuels, and found himself behind the more heralded bfc in the rotation. Though Jennings offered efficient scoring and a dominant rebounding presence, especially on the offensive boards, he did not establish much more than a "role" presence on offense. Sam-Sam moved on to the NBA this past June, and ready or not, he has passed the low post baton onto Jennings. Pomeroy's 50% confidence interval suggests Jennings should grow into a "Major Contributor" role this season (in the range of 21%-24% of the possessions/shots), but given the personnel loss, should Jennings blow up, a "Significant Contributor" role, something just north of 25% is possible. As a high-end "Role Player", Jennings has shown he can be very efficient (111.8-116.1); if he can maintain his efficiency level while expanding his role in the offense, he will definitely make an All-Big East Team or two. Then if he is around in the summer of 2011, I will not be able to include him on my Rising Seniors "Watch" List. Kris Joseph is yet another example of how team work was so successful for Syracuse last season. Distribution -- of possessions and shots among the players on the floor -- was atypical for a F1 team, but extremely effective for the Orange. Joseph's Poss% and Shot% put him at the upper edge of "Role Player". Johnson, Rautins and Onuaku have moved on, and given Kris' growth in role and efficiency over the past two seasons, he is on track to become a "Major Contributor" next season. Usage growth has gone hand-in-hand with improvement of efficiency, a good sign for Joseph and Syracuse in 2011.

		Miscellaneous...
Player	Coll	Ast%	DR%	Blk%	Stl%
Kevin Jones	WVU	7.2	13.0	3.1	1.1
Jeff Robinson	Hall	3.4	12.9	2.1	1.4
Terrence Jennings	'Ville	5.8	15.3	10.2	2.5
Kris Joseph	Cuse	10.2	13.7	1.6	2.8
Jordan Theodore	Hall	22.4	6.4	0.9	3.2
Darius Johnson-Odom	MU	17.0	9.2	0.6	1.8
Yancy Gates/td>	'Nati	7.4	15.2	3.7	1.3
Augustus Gilchrist	USF	4.2	14.6	3.4	0.5
Darryl Bryant	WVU	25.2	7.7	0.1	1.8

The log-jam in Marquette's back court going into the 2009-10 season was big enough to convince senior Maurice Acker to forego his spot on the roster and concentrate on completing his studies. With two transfers (one a returning native son), a true, and much heralded, local freshman and second returning senior combo guard, it was easy to see why Ackers thought to stand aside. I had to wonder where a second promising transfer, Darius Johnson-Odom, would fit. Preseason injuries to Cadougan (who later returned to play 12 games at the end of the season) and Johnson-Odom were enough to bring Acker back to the squad where he had a very good senior campaign (ranked #1 in conference for assist-to-turnover ratio and #1 for 3FGM%). A quickly recovered Johnson-Odom completed the accidental back court, becoming a fixture alongside a combination of Acker, Cubillan and/or Buycks. He proved to be a good combo guard, sliding over to the off guard where could find his shot (eFG% -- 56.4%) both inside and outside (ranked #7 in conference for 3 pointers made) when Acker manned the #1, and then over to the lead guard spot when Cubillan or Buycks came in. Johnson-Odom had a respectable (per Ken Pomeroy), though not Top 500 assist rate, suggesting he will move back and forth in the Buzz Williams' back court again this season. Normally I cut off candidates at about the 40% Mins line, but (like Louisville's Terrence Jennings...) Augustus Gilchrist made an good argument for setting that guideline aside. Gus completed his first year in Tampa by showing the Bulls' faithful that he could be a dominant (though inefficient) front court presence when he saw the court. Efficiency, under the right circumstances, could be improved, so 2010 held serious promise for the Bulls and Gilchrist. An early December ankle sprain sidelined him until mid-February. He returned to help the Bulls close out their Big East regular season with a four game winning streak. Many assumed the 6-10 235 pound player would man the low post, but he seems to want to play more on the perimeter than the low blocks. Not a dominant defensive rebounder, Gus has shown he can block a shot when needed and dominate on the offensive boards. Over the past two seasons South Florida fans have seen enough to be excited about Gilchrist's potential. He made significant strides in shot and possession-to-point efficiency. If the big guy can manage to log an entire season with the Tampa school, his expected possession and shot rates this season could well land him in "Major Contributor" role in the Bulls' offense. With Jones departed for the NBA, and a number of new guards coming in to replenish Coach Heath's severely depleted back court, Gilchrist should become an "early and often" offensive option.

What About...?
DePaul's Devin Hill and Jeremiah Kelly were too inefficient with their shots last season, logging eFG%s in the low 40s. Greg Monroe's exit leaves a lot of shots and possessions to divvy up among the remaining (and entering) Hoyas. But Henry Sims, who entered as a freshman with Monroe (and was by some, better regarded), who saw his sophomore minutes diminish relative to his freshman season, would seem to be a poor candidate for a significant portion of those possessions/shots. His possession rate, 16%, may have grown modestly over his freshman rate (14.5), but there is a small probability that more than another 4%-5% will come his way (assuming he gets more minutes). Jason Clark, another Hoya who may potentially benefit (possessions and shots) from Greg Monroe's good fortune, made the "Freshmen Watch" list last August, and did increase his efficiency. But his role, as measured by possessions and shots, did not grow at all. Coach Thompson did not, even with a dominant low post presence like Monroe, experiment much with a rotation that put three under 6-5 guards on the floor at the same time. Lacking Monroe, I have to think Coach Thompson would be even less inclined to give that line-up extended run this season.

Hits and Misses...Last Season's "Rising Juniors"
Jimmy Butler and Austin Freeman drew "All-Big East"-level recognition (an Honorable Mention & 2^nd Team) and so are disqualified from consideration this off season -- remember we are looking for the guys just off the radar (congratulations to both). DePaul's Mac Koshwal declared for the draft again last April, went undrafted, but played for the Pistons in the NBA Summer League. Pitt's Brad Wanamaker, St. John's DJ Kennedy and Syracuse's Rick Jackson saw their efficiency and roles improve over the course of the 2010 season. For Wanamaker and Jackson, the efficiency improvement was good, but the growth in roles was comparatively small. Given Syracuse's relatively even distribution of touches and shots expect to see Jackon's role grow (modestly probably) again this season. Kennedy's role grew considerably, bordering on "Go-to Guy"-level possessions. Yet the rising senior drew no accolades from the conference. So I put him back on the Watch List (Rising Seniors) again this season. Louisville's Preston Knowles saw his role grow (possessions went from 16.9% to 21.9%), but his efficiency diminished (112.9 to 103.2), a more common phenomena than the both move in the same direction. Corey Stokes, Sean Evans and Marshon Brooks saw their roles remain about the same, while their efficiencies either declined (Evans) or increase (Stokes and Brooks). Brooks, like Kennedy, is pulling down near "Go-to Guy"-level possession and shot rates, so (like Kennedy) I put him back on the watch list. Stokes on the other hand drew middling "Role Player"-level possessions and shots in 2010, much as he had in 2009. There is a ceiling in the low 20s, but if he is going much higher, he will have to buck the trend.

Watch Lists by Class

Rising Seniors

Deconstructing West Virginia -- The Four Forwards Offense

Missing Pieces
The strong start is not surprising; the Mountaineers were projected as either the #1 or the #2 in the Big East by virtually every MSM analyst...not to mention the Big East coaches. Though a few previews were out before Mazzulla and Bryant were re-instated to the program (both had been suspended for unrelated incidents in the spring and summer of 2009), I suspect virtually everyone familiar with West Virginia and Coach Huggins assumed the coach would have both back in uniform for the start of fall practice, the late spring recruitment of JUCO off guard Casey Mitchell (out of Chipola College) notwithstanding. And the Coach matched expectations as both were available by October 15. Mazzulla's rehab has gone more slowly than anticipated, but the back up point guard has played in all but the 1st game of the season. Bryant's injury prior to the Mississippi game (during the Cleveland State game? The origins & extent are ambiguous) however, was not anticipated and has complicated Coach Huggins' rotation in the last 4 games they have played.

Four Forwards and a Wing
Coach Huggins unveiled the unusual lineup for the Mississippi game, while suggesting Bryant was dinged and less efficient. He has used the same 5, John Flowers, Devin Ebanks, Wellington Smith, Da'Sean Butler (the wing...) and Kevin Jones. Both Bryant and Mazzulla remain in the rotation, injuries & rehabilitation notwithstanding, but with altered minutes as the tables below show.

		MIN	FG	FGA	FTM	FTA	3PM	3PA	PTS	AST	TO	STL	PF	A:TO	eFG%	PPWS
Bryant	Thru Clev.	27.3	3.0	8.4	3.0	4.1	1.6	4.5	10.6	4.3	2.4	1.3	2.6	1.8:1	45.5	1.03
Mazzulla	Thru Clev.	8.9	0.4	0.8	0.6	1.5	0.0	0.0	1.4	1.6	0.8	0.6	1.3	2.2:1	50.0	0.94
Bryant	After Clev.	16.0	1.8	5.3	1.3	2.3	0.5	1.0	5.3	2.3	2.5	0.0	1.3	0.9:1	38.1	0.83
Mazzulla	After Clev.	12.3	0.3	1.0	0.7	1.3	0.0	0.0	1.3	1.0	2.0	1.0	2.7	0.5:1	33.3	0.82

The table shows the per game averages for Bryant and Mazzulla, for the first 8 games (Loyola through Cleveland State) and the last 4 (Mississippi through Purdue). Bryant's decline in efficiency (and time) is consistent with the idea that he is injured, but a forward (Ebanks) took about 8 of the 12 minutes vacated by Bryant -- Joe Mazzulla's additional 4 minutes per game is an understatement...he only played 1 minute at Purdue. The declining shot accuracy is misleading -- the 4 forwards plus Kevin Jones could make that up (see table below) -- the assist decline, expressed in part through the declining assist-to-turnover ratio, is an area of concern. A recent article cited Bryant's shooting woes as an initial reason for the move to "The Four Forwards", and a look at some of the possession-based stats suggests the move did boost shooting efficiency...but at a cost

	Offense				Defense
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTR	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTR
Thru Clev. St.	53.0	18.8	42.4	39.0	48.7	29.0	28.9	38.8
After Clev St.	54.0	24.1	40.6	27.2	47.3	11.7	30.0	33.9

WVU managed to tweak their eFG% by a point, but they also bumped their turnover percentage (turnovers per 100 possessions) up by about 6 points. The toll for playing an off guard at the #1? While shooting efficiency was affected at both sides of the ball, note that so too were turnovers and rebounding. In the latter 2 cases the affect was adverse. Most interesting is that in general shooting is recognized as the most important factor in offensive and defensive efficiency, when the full effect of turnovers and rebounding are weighed against the improvement in shot making and defense, the overall impact was negative (see table below).

		Efficiency
	Pace	Off	Def	Diff
Thru Clev. St.	66.1	115.6	87.7	0.280
After Clev St.	65.8	106.6	106.7	-0.001

The stepback was significant enough to produce a net negative in efficiency differentials, also reflected (slightly) in the game results over those four games. West Virginia did go 3-1 over that stretch, but while they beat Mississippi by 10, they took Marquette by a single point and had to go to overtime to subdue the Hall. And of course they lost to Purdue in West Lafayette. The experiment was short lived. Injuries, lack of confidence, whatever, Coach Huggins started Bryant against Rutgers. The sophomore logged 20 minutes even as his junior backup spelled him for 15 more. The two pgs managed to score 19 points (Bryant had 15) and dish 7 assists to 1 turnover (Mazzulla had 5 assists to 0 turnovers). And the Mountaineers won 86-52.

Preview 2009-10 -- West Virginia Mountaineers

Too Busy for the Details?
Returning 65.9% of a squad that finished #7 in the conference last season before a disappointingly early exit from the NCAAs, hopes are very high for the Mountaineers, with many pegging West Virginia as the #1 or #2 team in the conference. This would be a tremendous development for Coach Bob Huggins, a West Virginia alum who returned to Morgantown 2 seasons ago when John Beilein took the Michigan job. Huggins and staff have incorporated the strengths of Beilein's "Flying Circus" squad into a more inside, power basketball-focused offensive system. This could be, despite the loss of senior Alex Ruoff, a breakout season for the 'Eers...if they can get consistent play from their backcourt. Prognosis -- A 1st quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance
Coach Huggins gets a double bonus this season -- this season's squad will have the most "Huggins-oriented" make up of any squad he has had at Morgantown, and it is the most experienced Mountaineer squad he has managed in his short tenure.

	Returning...
	2010	2009	2008
%Min	65.9	58.8	53.8
%Pts	63.5	59.2	56.4
%FGM	66.7	60.0	57.0
%3FGM	41.6	64.8	52.8
%OReb	88.2	65.2	52.8
%DReb	77.1	60.0	58.9
%TReb	81.2	61.7	57.0

Losing Alex Ruoff hurts, especially with outside shooting (note the 41.6% returning %3FGM above), but much of the rest of West Virginia's offense and defense returns intact as Coach Huggins works to balance his outside threats (Butler & the newcomers Mitchell and Pepper) with inside 'tweeners like Smith, Ebanks, Jones and Flowers (& the newcomers Kilicli & Jennings).

	According to Pomeroy...
	2008-09		2007-08		2006-07
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Overall ORtg	115.3	18	116.7	21	118.3	13
Overall DRtg	89.1	14	90.4	24	94.0	57
Big East ORtg	106.3	8	107.4	4	106.2	4
Big East DRtg	98.1	3	99.6	4	103.4	12
Four Factors -- Overall
All Off. eFG%	48.5	193	51.4	112	54.7	17
All Off. TOv%	17.9	42	16.1	6	17.0	10
All Off. OReb%	40.8	5	34.6	99	30.2	270
All Off. FTA/FGA	35.9	190	36.6	171	28.2	320
All Def. eFG%	46.6	61	48.0	80	49.3	131
All Def. TOv%	23.3	33	22.6	76	23.8	39
All Def. OReb%	31.6	119	30.7	80	35.2	251
All Def. FTA/FGA	38.4	222	39.7	237	28.8	33
Four Factors -- Big East Only
BE Off. eFG%	47.5	12	48.2	10	53.9	2
BE Off. TOv%	17.4	5	14.8	1	17.3	3
BE Off. OReb%	37.7	3	33.0	9	24.8	16
BE Off. FTA/FGA	29.2	13	40.1	3	30.3	13
BE Def. eFG%	47.7	3	50.2	11	51.6	14
BE Def. TOv%	20.9	3	21.7	3	21.1	4
BE Def. OReb%	32.1	5	31.3	5	35.9	14
BE Def. FTA/FGA	39.7	13	37.7	8	34.8	10
Miscellanious
All Gms Cons	25.3	327	27.1	333	24.2	295
All Gms Luck	-.075	311	-.025	203	+.015	122

Possibly a reflection of the change in coaching styles, the Mountaineers rank for the 2nd season running, near the bottom of DI for Luck and Consistency. A troubling trend that hints the Mountaineers may struggle unexpectedly at times and could well post a won-loss record lower than the squad's Pythagorean Winning Percentage would suggest.

	For the Record...
	2008-09			2007-08			2006-07
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	23	12	0.657	26	11	0.703	27	9	0.750
Big East	10	8	0.556	11	7	0.611	9	7	0.563
Post Season?	NCAA/Rnd 1			NCAA/Rnd 3			NIT/Champ

The Mountaineer's Nucleus
Coach Huggins will bring back Ebanks & Butler, two of West Virginia's 3 top scorers from 2009. Losses from the #5 spot (little used Josh Sowards and Dee Proby both transferred out) have thinned the front court, but Coach Huggins, not a big fan of the space eater-type low post player, will go with quartet of 'tweeners who range from 6-7 to 6-9, and tip the scales from 215 to 250 or so. A handful of those 'tweeners are returnees -- Butler, Smith, Jones, Flowers & Thoroughman.

On Offense
Player	Min%	ORtg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTRA
Butler	82.6	107.7	26.1	29.0	49.2	1.06	7.1	30.4
Ebanks	75.2	108.7	20.5	18.1	47.9	1.06	9.6	49.8
Bryant	63.7	102.6	21.9	21.3	47.9	1.05	1.6	35.7
Smith	53.3	104.4	15.8	15.0	43.6	0.94	10.2	37.6
Jones	48.1	113.6	16.7	19.5	50.3	1.02	10.7	23.7
Flowers	42.0	104.9	15.6	15.3	49.6	0.98	9.4	33.8
Thoroughman	21.7	94.0	13.1	7.1	43.8	0.92	14.0	68.8
Mazzulla	10.7	102.4	18.9	12.7	41.1	0.99	2.2	85.7

Bryant and Mazzulla were suspended from all basketball activities during the off season. The school however posted both to the preseason roster, and sure enough they were re-instated before the Fall practice (mid October). With Ebanks and Mazzulla reinstated, the Mountaineers will enter the season with a deep and experienced back court, including bodies (returning and entering) to man the #1 and #2. And the same goes for their front court.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stls%	Blk%
Da'Sean Butler	82.6	13.5	11.5	16.1	1.0	2.3
Devin Ebanks	75.2	20.2	17.4	18.7	2.6	1.7
Darryl Bryant	63.7	6.7	21.2	22.2	0.1	1.3
Wellington Smith	53.3	9.8	11.3	17.3	7.8	1.6
Kevin Jones	48.1	18.2	6.7	9.6	3.8	1.9
John Flowers	42.0	12.6	11.0	16.4	4.9	1.7
Cam Thoroughman	21.7	14.3	12.9	31.7	1.5	2.6
Joe Mazzulla	10.7	10.2	31.1	23.5	0.0	2.8

Bryant and Mazzulla are clearly the point guards (note their assist and turnover rates -- Ast% and TO% respectively), but the others are very good at distributing the ball. No one, Thoroughman excepted, is especially loose with the ball either.

Significant Additions
Coach Huggins continues to stock his squad with athletic forwards, consistent with teams/programs he built at Akron, Cincinnati and Kansas State, before coming to West Virginia. The incoming class, 3 Top 100 (ESPNU) ranked freshmen and the JUCO Player of the Year (also consistent with his recruiting practices), is a consensus top 2/3 class in the Big East. , if short of point guards. Casey Mitchell, a 6-4 SG out of Chipola Junior College, Florida will step into the wing spot vacated by Alex Ruoff. Mitchell was JUCO player of the year last season when he chipped in 20 ppg for Chipola. He will go a long way in filling the point void left by the departed Ruoff. He may take some ball handling responsibilities should Mazzulla and/or Bryant not be re-instated in 2009-10. Deniz Kilicli is a 6-9 Turkish import who will step into the #4/#5 and push Smith, Jones and Thoroughman for time. Kilicli played for the Turkish national team this past summer in the World University Games (Serbia), and was ranked #47 by ESPN/Scouts, Inc., in their 2009 Top 100. The NCAA, however, suspended him for West Virginia's first 20 games this season for play on a Turkish team that also employed a professional player. Strictly prohibited under NCAA rules. Dan Jennings, a 6-8, 225lb #4 out of St. Thomas More School in Connecticut (a name that should be familiar to Villanova fans), will compete for time in the low post. A physical player who likes to draw contact, Jennings was ranked #60 by ESPN/Scouts, Inc. Dalton Pepper is another name familiar to the Wildcat faithful. Pepper graduated from Pennsbury HS in Pennsylvania, was on Villanova's recruiting radar until he pulled the trigger for West Virginia in 2008. Pepper continues the "Philadelphia guard" tradition with physical play and rebounding to go with his shooting. Pepper is also rated in ESPN/Scout Inc.'s Top 100 (#96), and will compete with wing Da'Sean Butler for playing time. If Mazzulla & Bryant remain suspended through the beginning of the season look for Pepper to get a look at the #1.

Explode If...
1. Coach Huggins can solidify the point guard position. Having either (or both) of junior Joe Mazzulla and sophomore Darryl Bryant would be a huge step for the program. Both are fast, can slash into the lane and are strong enough to finish after contact. Mazzulla may be a bit rusty after taking a red shirt last season. The summer suspension may also have set him back. Bryant spent most of last season on the steep side of the learning curve. His shooting should be more accurate this season, which will be a big boon for the program.
2. Coach Huggins can find a productive rotation for the forward spots. One or more of Kilicli, Jennings or Smith (more likely) will spend time in the low post. Of the returning players Ebanks and Jones were the more productive on the boards. Kilicli or Jennings can get time if he can rebound.
3. A combination of (an improved) Ebanks, Bryant, Flowers and Jones, along with newcomers Casey Mitchell and/or Dalton Pepper surpasses Alex Ruoff's offensive production. The staff will no doubt give each a long look.
4. The 'Eers can figure out how to break on the high side of .500 on the road. Over the past 2 conference seasons West Virginia has gone 13-5 at home, and a far more modest 8-10 on the road. They went 7-2 at home, very close to the max. An 8-1 home record coupled with a 5-4/6-3 road record should seal a #1 seed in New York City next March.


Implode If...
The usual demons of injury & egos aside, Huggins' teams have often proven to be their own worst enemies. The first two seasons passed with only 2 - 3 distractions. Are Mazzulla and Bryant an anamoly or a hint of things to come.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
West Virginia will face Long Beach State in the first round of the 76 Classic. The second round opponent will be either Texas A&M or Clemson, with the third rond opponent coming from the other bracket...one of UCLA, Minnesota or Butler, most likely. 2-1 -- or better 3-0 -- should warm the hearts throughout the Mountaineer Nation. WVU will host (former Rutgers Coach) Gary Waters' Cleveland State Vikings, a team that upset Syracuse last season in the Carrier Dome, then face Ole Miss, coached by former Huggins' assistant Andy Kennedy. Going undefeated (or 9-1...) into the Big East regular season would be a strong signal the 'Eers are ready to contend for the Big East title. Their January/February leg contains three more OOC opponents, in-state rival Marshall, along with national powers Purdue and Ohio State -- both nationally televised games.

West Virginia jump starts their Big East season with a trip to Newark to face the Seton Hall Pirates at the Rock in what promises to be a good test. A run back to Morgantown for their home opener versus the Marquette Golden Eagles will be followed by a trip to Indiana to play Purdue. Marquette may be the breather in that run. A breather back home against Rutgers will be followed by a two game road trip, first to South Bend and the Fighting Irish, followed by a swing down to Tampa and a matchup with the Bulls. Those games should be a good barometer of how far the Mountaineers are progressing. Beating both the Irish (generally tough to do at the Joyce Center) and the Bulls could put WVU at 5-0 (or 4-1) going into a mini-homestand where they deal first with Syracuse and then their last two (before the NCAAs) OOC opponents (Marchall & Ohio State). 3-0 through that stand should have the 'Eers ranked in the top 10, especially if they are #1 in the Big East standings at that point. The real test for Coach Huggins' squad will come in the last 5 games of the regular season, as WVU will come off of another two game road trip (to Pittsburgh and then Providence) to host Seton Hall and close out their home-n-away series with the Pirates. The 'Eers travel to Storrs to close out their mirror games with the Huskies, and return home to face Cincinnati, then Georgetown. And then they finish with a road closer at Villanova. Note four of those five opponents are projected to finish in the top 6 of the conference, with a season-ending clash between the preseason #1 & #2 ranked teams. Irrespective of their record entering this last leg of the conference play (13-0? 12-1? 11-2?), it is very unlikely they will go 5-0. 4-1 is likely (not necessarily Villanova), even 3-2 (or 2-3?) would not be shocking.

Roster Moves -- Late 2009 Off Season

Late Summer Edition
Keeping our fingers crossed there have been no injuries reported. We are coming into that part of the preseason though, school is coming back into session, squads continue to play unsupervised pickup games. The changes are more gains than losses right now, though one or two are a little surprising.

Marquette -- I am not sure the Marquette Athletic Department ever got around to "officially" announcing that freshman forward Brett Roseboro, a 6-9 forward out of Pennsylvania, signed in the fall of 2008 and on campus for part of the summer has transferred to St. Bonaventure. Since he did not enroll in classes the transfer rules should not apply. He will be available to play in the fall 2009.

Pittsburgh -- The Panthers announced on August 10 that they had picked up Centenary point guard Chase Adams, a 5-11 rising senior as a transfer. Centenary had voted to downgrade their program to DII, opening the door for outbound transfers who could have the one year wait period waived, as Adams did. Adams, more a bridge and insurance policy, as opposed to an impact player, will help the 2010 Panthers maintain the program as the staff waits for the arrival of (Class of 2010 recruits) Isaiah Epps and Cameron Wright to reinforce the current back court contingent of Ashton Gibbs, Brad Wanamaker, Jermaine Dixon and Travon Woodall. Pitt waited until the last Friday in August to announce that forward Gilbert Brown, their 6-6 junior guard/forward would not be eligible to play in their Fall 2009 games. Brown, on academic probation for the semester, will have to get his books & grades in order before he can be re-instated to the team.

Rutgers -- About a week after returning from touring Europe with a group of "East Coast All-Stars" guard Corey Chandler was abruptly dismissed from the Scarlet Knights team for violating Athletic Department policy, according to Head Coach Fred Hill. Heralded as Coach Hill's 1st big get, the former All-State performer was suspended briefly in the fall of 2008, and ran afoul of the staff after a heated phone call made in the spring of 2009. Chandler apologized for the indiscretion and all appeared well until this latest run in. Corey will finish his career at Binghamton, according to his High School coach. Chandler's exit, coupled with guard/forward Earl Pettis' transfer last May, leaves Rutgers shallow at the #2/#3 spots.

South Florida -- Bulls Head Coach Stan Heath re-instated senior guard Mike Mercer on Friday Augusst 21. Mercer, a transfer from Georgia was dismissed in January 2009 after his second arrest since transferring to South Florida. Coach Heath noted that Mercer had completed his course of study and fulfilled his requirements for graduation. Mercer will add depth to the #2/#3 spots this season.

Villanova -- Announced that rising senior guard Reggie Redding was suspended from games for the Fall 2009 semester. Redding, arrested on July 31 for possession of marijuana, will be able to go to class and practice with the team. If all goes well he should be eligible to play after December 18. The Wildcats will not have Redding available when they play in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off in November.

West Virginia -- Head Coach Bob Huggins re-instated rising senior point guard Joe Mazzulla for the fall 2009. Mazzulla, red shirted last season with an arm injury, had been suspended in April when he was arrested for assault on a woman. Mazzulla had been arrested in Pittsburgh the preceding summer for assault and disorderly conduct during a Pirates baseball game. The Mountaineers' second point guard, rising sophomore Darryl Bryant, remains on suspension following his second arrest for leaving the scene of accident in June.

Assessing the Impact
Roseboro, who attracted the Golden Eagles' attention when he shot up 4-5 inches over the summer of 2008, was considered more a project than an impact player. Adams will provide depth and experience for the Panther back court. Brown's loss will hurt...Brown. He had a minimal impact on the team in the course of his first 2 seasons. Chandler's value may be the most debatable in the group. Though he was not afraid to shoot -- Chandler takes another 14% of the Scarlet Knight's 3s with him -- he was not especially accurate. Mercer, if he finally plays to his potential, would have a great positive impact on the team play. Heath tended to play him or Jones in the 4 games in which Mercer appeared last season. Playing in tandem might make a difference for the Bulls. Heath seems to be a coach who likes guards and knows how to develop them. Redding's maturity and court vision (and IQ) will be missed, especially in Puerto Rico where the 'Cats may face the most demanding portion of their OOC. Restoring both point guards would have a tremendous impact on West Virginia's prospects in 2010. Without Mazzulla and Bryant the Mountaineers would still be very good, though relatively more vulnerable in ball handling situations. With both guards back they should have the depth and experience to be considered the team to beat in the Big East next season.

Rising Sophomores -- Ten to Watch

The Big Jump
Common wisdom says the prime-time players (who don't jump to the league after their freshmen seasons...) take the biggest leap in their development during their sophomore season. I am not sure there is a single rule that dictates when a player makes his greatest strides. Some, like Dante Cunningham (Villanova, Class of 2009) and Hilton Armstrong (UConn, Class of 2006), see their roles grow with each season, but take the biggest (it seems) spurt in their senior season. Others make an impact their freshman seasons, but never seem to develop beyond that season (Edgar Sosa? Mike Nardi? Darryl Hill?). Like other "10 to Watch" postings, I am not listing All Big East Freshman Teamers, everyone knows who they are and will be watching/reporting on their every game. These overlooked ten might be on the threshold of a breakout season, or more likely solidify a starting spot on their team's roster. These players have a Big East season under their belts. They survived, put up some good (but not stud) numbers and are looking at opportunities to step into major roles with their teams this coming season.

On Offense...
Player	Team	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTR%
A Gibbs	Pitt	25.9	117.5	18.2	20.8	58.1	1.20	1.9	17.1
K Jones	WVU	48.1	113.6	16.7	19.5	50.3	1.02	10.7	23.7
Jennings	Ville	26.5	111.8	18.0	16.5	59.4	1.17	15.1	51.0
Echenique	RU	70.7	108.6	16.8	15.0	50.8	1.11	12.2	65.9
C Wright	GTown	81.0	107.8	21.9	22.0	53.7	1.15	1.2	41.1
D Dixon	Nati	54.1	104.1	19.2	20.5	45.4	0.98	6.4	33.3
Bryant	WVU	63.7	102.6	21.9	21.3	47.9	1.05	1.6	35.7
J Clark	GTown	45.1	100.3	17.2	16.1	57.0	1.22	7.2	31.3
K Joseph	Cuse	29.2	88.2	16.3	15.5	46.1	0.91	7.0	50.5
Gilchrist	USF	48.5	87.6	27.3	30.4	43.3	0.91	7.7	31.4

Ashton Gibbs and Terrence Jennings did not see the floor much at the start of the season. Gibbs was behind senior pg Levance Fields and sophomore Brad Wanamaker, while Jennings found Samardo Samuels and Earl Clark in front of him. Both worked themselves into the rotation by season's end. Jennings logged about 38% of the minutes at his position during the Big East season, while Gibbs spent July playing lead guard for his coach in the U19 World Championship Tournament in New Zealand, making up ground on the playing time he missed last season. Gibbs gained valuable experience he will be able to use early next season. He will split time and responsibilities with rising junior Brad Wanamaker and red shirt freshman Travon Woodall. Rutgers' Greg Echenique, efficient but under utilized on offense last season, will benefit from a distributor like transfer James Beatty at the point. Having a reliable 2nd and 3rd option on offense will work to All Big East Rookie teammate Mike Rosario's benefit, even if the gunner gets a few less touches. Darryl "Truck" Bryant is on this list even though he is currently suspended. Bryant, arrested twice within a one week period in June for (serious) traffic offenses, was suspended by Coach Bob Huggins, but has continued to live (and workout) in the Morgantown area over the summer. His 102.7 offensive rating is on the right side of 100, combined with possessions and shot percentages (%Poss and %Shot) above 21 suggest he can produce points (via shooting or assists) efficiently. His assist rate (Ast% -- 21.2) was top 400, though undermined by his high turnover rate (TO% -- 22.2) in a typically freshman sort of way. Given a full season that should improve (and help his ORtg, not to mention his team, considerably). Given both he and red shirt junior Joe Mazzulla (suspended in May, pending resolution on an unrelated assault charge), are both listed on West Virginia's latest roster, odds are excellent both will be re-instated before the season, if not by the Fall practice in mid-October.

On Defense...
Player	Team	%Min	DR%	%Ast	TO%	%Blk	%Stls
Ashton Gibbs	Pitt	25.9	5.4	13.7	19.3	0.3	0.8
Kevin Jones	WVU	48.1	18.2	6.7	9.6	3.8	1.9
Terrence Jennings	Ville	26.5	11.6	3.8	16.3	13.7	2.3
Gregory Echenique	RU	70.7	20.6	4.5	16.8	8.1	1.5
Chris Wright	GTown	81.0	9.5	25.1	20.4	0.3	2.1
Dion Dixon	Nati	54.1	9.7	12.5	16.3	0.8	1.4
Darryl Bryant	WVU	63.7	6.7	21.2	22.2	0.1	1.3
Jason Clark	GTown	45.1	10.0	9.0	29.1	1.1	2.2
K Joseph	Cuse	29.2	11.9	6.1	20.2	1.8	3.7
Augustus Gilchrist	USF	48.5	12.9	5.4	16.2	4.2	0.7

At 6-10 and 235 pounds Gus Gilchrist drew a lot of attention last season. With nearly 28% of the possessions and taking (just) over 30% of the shots when he was on the floor, he was taking a "Go-to Guy"-level role in the Bulls offense. But he was not converting possessions into points very efficiently (about .88 points per possession, below the Bulls team .95 ppp). I got the feeling Gilchrist wanted to play more #4 than #5, and with Jarrid Famous, a classic back-to-the-basket type #5 to bolster returning rising senior Alex Sanchez at the #5, Gilchrist may be able to play facing the basket on offense. For a real break through season however, in addition to improving his shot selection (and accuracy) Gilchrist will have to step up his rebounding. Though he had another year of eligibility, DaJuan Summers moved on, handing Hoya wing Jason Clark one of those opportunities to blossom. Georgetown needs rebounding under both baskets -- something Clark did not demonstrate an instinct for last season. Cincinnati's Dion Dixon on the other hand, will face very stiff competition for minutes. With redshirt freshman Cashmire Wright taking the point, All-Big East Teamer Deonta Vaughn will most likely move out to the wing. Between Vaughn and incoming wing Lance Stephenson, Dixon will have to produce early and often to secure a spot in the Bearcat rotation. Kris Josephs' situation at Syracuse bears similarity to both Gibbs/Jennings and Clark/Dixon. Like Gibbs/Jennings Joseph did not draw a lot of minutes in 2009, but the Orange lost 3 starters in the off season, virtually guaranteeing that Joseph will draw an opportunity to compete for a larger role with the team. But Joseph will get competition from transfer Wesley Johnson, red shirt freshman Mookie Jones and true freshman James Southerland.


And Then There's...
The Big East All Freshmen Team, Yancy Gates, Kemba Walker, Greg Monroe, Samardo Samuels, Mike Rosario and Devin Ebanks, will no doubt have great seasons. If all goes as anticipated, a few (Greg Monroe? Devin Ebanks?) will likely put in for the NBA draft next June.

DePaul's Jeremiah Kelly will draw more duty at the point this season, now that senior Jabari Currie has moved on. Currie was hobbled with turnover problems for his entire career, that Kelly could not move past him last season was disappointing. When Malik Boothe was sidelined with injuries last season Quincy Roberts was one of several freshmen who stepped into the breech. Less than stellar shooting was further undermined by turnovers. This season Roberts will compete with 2 more freshmen and a transfer for playing time (not to mention 3 returning players) in the back court/wing. I have closed an eye to playing time for a handful of rising sophomores, but Louisville's Jared Swopshire & George Goode, Georgetown's Henry Sims and Pitt's Nasir Robinson have too little playing time to project comfortably. Sims has about 20+% PT at his spot, with Swopshire, Goode and Robinson far closer to 10% than 20%. Of the 3 Robinson most likely has the clearest path to a secure spot in his team's rotation, but how successful he will become is uncertain (from the numbers). His best path to the Panther rotation is rebounding. Pittsburgh finds itself in the same boat as Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette and Villanova, it's best rebounders have moved on and the staff will give high marks to the players who grab the loose balls.

Many thanks for Ken Pomeroy. His website is an invaluable source for individual possession-based stats.

Signs of the 2009 Off Season #2 -- International Teams

After a few early roster adjustments the USA Basketball organization has announced the preliminary rosters for this summer's teams. The USA will enter a team in the World University Games, to be held in July 2 - 12 in Belgrade, Serbia. Twenty four teams, manned by students currently enrolled in a college or university, will compete for gold, silver and bronze. Tryouts, to be held at the Olympic Training Center in Colorado Springs, Colorado between June 16-24, according to a USA Basketball press release. Corey Fisher is one of 16 college players invited to compete for one of the 12 available roster spots. Other Big East players invited to tryout include Da'Sean Butler (wing, West Virginia), Lazar Hayward (forward, Marquette) and Dominique Jones (guard, South Florida). Hayward and Butler are rising seniors, Fisher and Jones are rising juniors. Bo Ryan of Wisconsin will serve as head coach, with two assistants to be announced later.

USA Basketball will also field a U19 team for this summer's World Championship Tournament, to be held in New Zealand July 2 - 11/12. Seventeen players will compete, according to the USA Basketball press release, for 12 roster spots during trials to be held at the US Olympic Training Center in Colorado Springs, Colorado, June 16-18. The team will depart for New Zealand on June 25. Villanova recruit Dom Cheek, a veteran of the U18 team that competed in Argentina in the summer of 2008, has been invited to tryout. Another Villanovan, Maalik Wayns, had to decline an invitation earlier due to a minor knee injury. Other Big East players invited to tryout include Kemba Walker (pg, Connecticut), also a veteran of the 2008 U18 team and Darryl "Truck" Bryant (guard, West Virginia). The team will be coached by Jamie Dixon, Pittsburgh head coach. Dixon will be assisted by Chris Lowery, head coach at Southern Illinois and Matt Painter, head coach at Purdue. ESPN's Andy Katz provides thumbnails on each invitee in a 5/27/09 entry in his blog.

Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim will chair the selection committee for both teams.

Congratulations to Dom and Corey and all of the Big East players invited to participate!

Preview -- West Virginia

The Wildcats take to the road and travel to Morgantown, West Virginia to tackle the Mountaineers of West Virginia University. The 'Cats are hot, riding the crest of a 6 game winning streak that has carried them to a 20-4 season record, and 8-3 in the Big East. The 'Eers have been part of the post season conversation since the season's start, but a sub .500 record in conference would take them off of the NCAA's Dance Card. Currently they sport a 16-8 overall record, and 5-6 in the Big East, largely due to a slate of opponents that has included 2 games with Pitt (both losses), Connecticut, and road games against Louisville, Syracuse and Georgetown. The Wildcats would love to take the streak out at least one more. West Virginia would love to even their Big East tally & add a Top 10 win to their tournament resume...

Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
Villanova and West Virginia typicall move in different OOC circles, but come conference time, especially at this point in the season, have a few more common conference opponents:

	Nova		West Va
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Seton Hall	W (A)	OT +4	W (A)	+26
Connecticut	L (A)	-6	L (H)	-6
Marquette	L (A)	-7	L (A)	-22
Marquette	W (H)	+18
Providence	W (A)	+3	W (H)	+27
South Florida	W (A)	+9	W (H)	+3
Pittsburgh	W (H)	+10	L (H)	-12
Pittsburgh			L (A)	-11
St. John's	W (H)	+21	W (H)	+23
Syracuse	W (H)	+17	L (A)	-13
Louisville	L (H)	-1	L (A)	-6

West Virginia's best OOC win was Ohio State (Big Ten, 17-5, RPI #22). Aside from OSU, they have a 6 wins versus Top 100 RPI teams, giving them a record of 6-2 versus Top 100 OOC teams. Their two losses came at the hands of Kentucky (SEC, 17-7, RPI #64) and Davidson (Southern Conf, 19-4, RPI #49). As the table above shows, WVU has good (Top 100) wins from the conference schedule -- Providence (#62) and Seton Hall (#90). ...

Lineups, Rotations...
...Coach Huggins lost athletic junior pg Joe Mazzulla (6-2, 200lbs) for the season in the Davidson game (game #8 on their schedule), and had to saddle freshman Darryl "Truck" Bryant (6-2, 200lbs) with a good deal of responsibility early. The balance of the lineup has pretty much been set from the beginning of the season. Huggins will start senior Alex Ruoff (6-6, 220lbs) alongside Bryant in the back court, with a trio of 'tweener forwards, juniors Da'Sean Butler (6-7, 225lbs), Wellington Smith (6-7, 225lbs) and freshman Devin Ebanks (6-9, 205lbs), in the front court. Playing time for the starters has gone up since the beginning of Big East play as Coach Huggins has tightened his rotation. Huggins allocated about 66% of the PT to his starting lineup for OOC play; the starter's run increased to just over 70% at the start of Big East play, rising to nearly 75% going into Friday's game. He has also trimmed his rotation over time, from about 11.5 down to just over 10. As for the playing time, expect between 8 and 7 players to get > 10 minutes. If the game is close Coach Huggins will tend to the lower range of the rotation.

One of sophomore John Flowers (6-7, 195lbs) or freshman Kevin Jones (6-8, 220lbs) will be first off the bench. Each has garnered double digit minutes in the past 4 or so games. Next? Expect to see redshirt sophomore Cam Thoroughman (6-7, 225lbs), who has appeared in nearly every West Virginia game this season. The deeper region of the bench holds red shirt junior Josh Sowards (6-7, 205ls), JUCO junior center Dee Proby (6-10, 240lbs) and sophomore guard Will Thomas (6-5, 210lbs), who tend to see the court when matters have already been settled.

The Nova staff will have to shuffle the lineup now that Dwayne Anderson's bone bruise will sideline the senior for (at least?) one game. Continuing the trend of the past 3-4 games, senior forward Shane Clark and junior swing man Reggie Redding will most likely start alongside junior Scottie Reynolds and senior forward Dante Cunningham. Each is generally playing more minutes than they were last month. One of the Coreys, either Fisher or Stokes, will most likely get the call for the last spot. Given the impact he has had when he entered the Providence, Marquette and Syracuse games, I suspect it will be Fisher, though the staff, looking at West Virginia's length, may opt for Stokes. Antonio Pena will most likely have his minutes increased as well.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
West Virginia plays for about 66.7 possessions, just a bit less than Villanova ('Cats adjusted pace is 68). This game will match WVU's #35 ranked offense against Villanova's #16 ranked defense, and Villanova's #23 offense against WVU's #6 ranked defense. A "Four Factors" comparison for when West Virginia has the ball...

When West Virginia has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
'Eer O	48.5	18.2	39.8	36.0
Wildcat D	45.5	21.8	30.1	38.9

WVU's offense is, according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report, very typical for D1 teams -- they take about 1/3 of their FGAs from beyond the arc, and earn their points (by percentage) in a "very average" manner. Just over 1 in 4 points (27.4%) come from beyond the arc, about 1 in 5 (20.1%) from the charity stripe, the balance earned from 2s. And yet, per Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report), they do it (quite) a bit better than the average D1 team, a paradox given the Mountaineer's very average shooting efficiency (eFG% ranked #183 -- see table above) & ability to get to the line. They convert about 48% of their 2s (ranked #185), but only 32.7% of their 3s (ranked #218) and 67% of their FTs (ranked #200), suggesting the WVU squad converts through persistence, rather than accuracy. They separate from the D1 pack through turnovers (they don't -- a carryover from the Beilein teams?) and offensive rebounding (they do, and very well). Grabbing those misses for 2nd chance opportunities can be very important for a team with very average at converting possessions into points. The Mountaineers' success at rebounding has been spotty though, good against most Big East opponents, but ineffective against Pittsburgh in their second game (about 11%, catastrophic for an average shooting team), Connecticut, Louisville and Syracuse. The 'Cats have been (with a few exceptions...) effective on the defensive boards, where even the guards are active. The WVU offense will go through 2 players, Bryant and Ruoff. One of those two has touched the ball before over 40% of WVU's FGMs. Both are ranked in Pomeroy's top 500 for assist rate. West Virginia limits turnovers because 3 of the 5 players most likely to take a shot (Butler, Ruoff and Jones) are also ranked in Pomeroy's top 500 as least likely to commit a turnover. The upper classmen, Ruoff and Butler, are the most efficient scorers on the squad, and they are 2 of the 3 players most likely to take a shot. Those two, along with the freshman Bryant, are also most likely to launch a 3. The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus WVU's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	52.0	18.6	36.6	43.6
'Eer D	45.4	25.5	32.1	40.9

Want to Beat West Virginia? Then...
The most significant determinate for this matchup is, like most of the earlier matchups, shooting. And it is not close...
1. Challenge their shooting, close down the inside & make them shoot 3s. WVU is 12-0 when they post an eFG% of 48.5 or better. When held to Nova's defensive eFG% (44.5) or less, the 'Eers are 3-8. Having played 7 games (3 against Big East teams) where they shot an eFG% < 40, it is clear West Virginia is capable of having very cold shooting nights.
2. Hit your own shots. While eFG$s of 60.0 or higher (Nova's last 2 games) are outliers, the 'Cats have had only one game (Louisville) where their eFG% was less than 46.4. In games where opponents have converted at 45.5 or higher, the Mountaineers have gone 4-6.
3. Value the ball, don't turn it over. Nova's turnover rate is 18.6 -- WVU's record when their opponent's turnover rate is Nova's or less, is 2-4. The 'Cats are 11-1 when they make their 18.6 turnover rate or lower.

Finally...
...Both teams feature 'tweener front court players who will man the low post, while guards & swingmen roam the wing probing for weaknesses and defensive breakdowns. Villanova will put a third guard (Reggie Redding, Corey Stokes...) out on the wing, while West Virginia will counter with a taller, forward-type player (Ebanks, Butler...). That matchup may be critical for determining who controls the boards off of West Virginia's basket. Ruoff, Butler and Bryant are WVU's 1st three options on offense, with Ruoff and Butler, wing men, the most efficient scorers on the team. Both are in the 6-6/6-7 range, and will present matchup problems for the 6-4/6-5 guards Nova will most likely put on them. Forcing Bryant to take even more offensive responsibilities might work to depress WVU's conversion efficiency. While Villanova's last three games have also been the team's best offensive outings, the 'Cats up to that point had not shown an affinity for a higher tempo game. It will be intersting to see if which squad shows up to play Friday.

Pomeroy projects the game to be played for 67 possessions (well within both team's comfort zones) with the 'Eers taking a 5 point decision. The 'Cats have exceeded those projections in 7 of their last 8 games.

Big East Rookies -- 10 15 To Watch

Samuels and Monroe were named Big East co-ROYs on Media Day back in October, but there will be a team of eleven (including an ROY) that will be named in March. I wanted, as the regular season gets underway, to take a look at number of players who will no doubt be under consideration for the All Rookie Team. I suspect Monroe and Samuels are heavy favorites to take the year-end honor as well, but should either or both falter, the next in line is most likely among the 15 others listed below:

							FTA	FTM
Player	Coll.	Pos.	Min%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	FGA	FGA
Mike Rosario	RU	G	79.6	32.5	53.5	1.15	24.2	21.0
G Echenique	RU	F	73.6	21.2	63.1	1.26	89.2	53.8
S Samuels	Ville	C	70.0	26.8	55.9	1.22	71.0	51.6
Greg Monroe	GTU	F/C	68.9	22.9	57.6	1.27	100.0	72.7
K Walker	Conn	G	64.9	15.8	56.5	1.30	74.2	62.9
D Bryant	WVU	G	59.0	23.2	52.1	1.15	45.4	35.1
J Kelly	DPU	G	54.1	14.9	44.6	0.93	18.5	12.3
Devin Ebanks	WVU	F	54.0	19.4	46.7	0.97	56.0	29.3
Yancy Gates	Nati	F	50.7	35.7	59.1	1.19	22.2	13.1
Kris Joseph	Cuse	F	46.5	15.1	50.9	0.98	48.1	18.5
Q Roberts	SJ	G	44.1	16.1	51.0	1.09	26.9	21.2
Jason Clark	GTU	G	44.0	12.3	51.7	1.27	69.0	65.5
E Espinosa	USF	F	34.8	12.1	52.4	1.10	81.0	47.6
Ashton Gibbs	Pitt	G	28.4	18.1	58.5	1.23	26.8	22.0
Gus Gilchrist	USF	C	27.9	26.0	37.5	0.80	36.5	19.2
N Robinson	Pitt	F	24.2	10.6	47.4	0.94	36.8	15.8
J Swopshire	Ville	F	20.5	17.6	50.0	1.03	50.0	27.3

[Note -- all data, except for PPWS was drawn from individual Team pages from ESPN's website]

Some Housekeeping...
The players are sorted by playing time, under the assumption that those who play more probably (according to their head coaches...) that which their respective teams need, be it scoring, rebounding, defense, etc. I then sorted (within playing time) by field goal efficiency, though to properly gauge a player's role with respect to team offense, looking next at Shot% may make more sense. Some of the players listed are starting games and logging 25+ minutes per game while others are playing somewhere in the 15-20 minute range. What most have in common is efficient scoring (see eFG% and PPWS, most are >50.0 and >1.05 respectively) while simultaneously taking a large enough percentage of the shots when they are on the floor to be considered a 1st, 2nd or 3rd option on offense.

Oasis in a Sea of Sand...
Rutgers had the defense last season, but Scarlet fans grew understandably weary with measuring success by the margin of defeat (and taking an occasional win against a Villanova or Pittsburgh). St. Anthony's Mike Rosario gave Rutgers their first New Jersey HS POY in a decade, and combined with St. Benedict's Greg Echenique, technically a junior who reclassified and cleared additional credits through the NCAA, provided the Knights with their best recruiting class in a long, long time. Coach Hill wasted no time getting these guys on the court. Both have logged twelve starts in twelve games (through games of 12/30/08) and more minutes than any other players on the Rutgers roster. Should Rosario pull Rutgers out of the cellar this season, I suspect he would, like Dominique Jones of South Florda last season, receive some consideration for the POY. As it is he will most likely have to settle for a unanimous selection to the All Rookie Team. Echenique, a player from Venezuela who enrolled at St. Benedict's two years ago to raise his profile for a possible D1 scholarship (and a college education) provides, when starting next to junior Hamady N'Diaye, a Twin Towers look for Rutgers. And some needed front court defesne and rebounding. Echenique also contributes about ?? points to the Rutgers offense.

Other Favorites...
Should the Samuels/Monroe pair falter then Connecticut's Kemba Walker or Cincinnati's Yancy Gates will be there to take the standard. Gates, like Rosario/Echenique has started virtually every game this season for the already front court-loaded Bearcats, while Walker logs quality minutes often the first player off the bench to mix in with junior pg AJ Price and senior combo guard Craig Austrie. I suspect head coach Jim Calhoun would love to start both Price and Walker, leaving to opponents to figure out who is running the offense. Gates is a DeJuan Blair-style big forward/center who scores and rebounds better than his dimensions would suggest. He, along with senior forward Mike Williams, leads the Bearcats for rebounding. Others who will get notice and are virtually certain to get votes include Darryl "Truck" Bryant from West Virginia. Bryant worked himself into the starting lineup and has stayed there for the last six games. The injury to junior point guard Joe Mazzulla, has put the ball in his hands as he has run the 'Eer team for Bob Huggins. St. John's Quincy Roberts has appeared in virtually every Johnnies game this season, and has started the last two games for Norm Robert's squad.

Late Comer...
South Florida's Gus Gilchrist's waiver application was approved by the NCAA and he has appeared in the last six Bull's games, starting 2 of them. Gilchrist is a work in progress (maybe not as far along as Gates or Blair from last season...), but the Bulls need him now.