Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Champions Classic Recap

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY -- A very attractive way to start the season. The first Madison Square Garden doubleheader, in the newly renovated arena, featured four 'Fortune 500' programs. The Scores:

Duke	74		69	Michigan State
Kentucky	75		65	Kansas

The under card (Duke vs. Michigan State) was a drag-it-out two and a half hour affair. Duke opened a double digit lead in the second half but had to withstand a late Michigan State surge. The Blue Devils never lost the lead in the stretch and gave coach Mike Krzyzewski his 903rd win, a mark that broke his mentor Bobby Knight's record.

#903 in the books
Coach K meets the press

Possession and efficiency:

	Duke	Mich. St.
Possessions	72	80
Offensive Efficiency	103	86

Why eFG is important (to really know what is happening). Duke shot 41% from the floor. Not a very good showing. Calculating their eFG the Blue Devils were 56%. Quite a difference. The breakdown shows Duke was 7 of 18 (39%) from two point range but 10 of 21 (48%) from three. The hottest hand belonged to Andre Dawkins, 6 of 10 beyond the arc, en route to a game high 26 points.

Blue Devil ft rate (ftm/fga) was off the charts. Duke was 30 of 41 from the line giving them a FTR of 77%. Thirty free throws made to 17 field goals made for the Blue Devils. It was that type of night.

Duke's Ryan Kelly was impressive. He scored 14 points in 30 minutes with perfection as a shooter. Kelly was 3 of 3 from the field (2 for 2 from three) and 6 for 6 from the charity stripe. The 6-11 junior also did a fine defensive job on Draymond Green of Michigan State. Green scored 10 points but committed 5 turnovers and shot 4 of 15 from the field.

Michigan State was paced by sophomore guard Keith Appling with 22 points. Appling provided the offensive surge allowing the Spartans to make a late run.

The Spartans still must assess and address the turnovers situation. They had 21 for a ridiculously high 26% TO rate. "Duke's defense pressures you," Michigan State coach Tom Izzo said. "But some of those turnovers were our own doing."

Numbers also included 19,979. That was the attendance -- a sellout.

Kentucky players take the floor
getting well wishes
from their adoring fans

The Over Card
The Kentucky-Kansas battle was the proverbial tale of two halves. The Wildcats did a lot of good things defensively but the story of the game was their explosion on the offensive end. The following chart breaks down the efficiencies of the halves and ultimately the game.

	Efficiency by...
	1st	2nd	Game
Kentucky	76	121	99
Kansas	80	100	90

The final possession total saw Kentucky with 76 and Kansas 72. A rather brisk pace indeed. Wildcats had a 25% turnover rate but did shoot the ball well (58$ eFG percentage) while limiting Kansas to a paltry 37% mark. Doron Lamb led Kentucky with 17 points and was 3 of 5 beyond the arc. Wildcats used some good ball movement the second half to give perimeter shooters some uncontested looks. Tyshawn Taylor of Kansas led all scorers with 22 points. Taylor penetrated well and got to the line. The junior guard did his damage on the line going 15 of 17. From the field he was only 3 of 13. Kansas, in fact, did a good job of penetrating but had virtually no mid-range or deep perimeter game to speak of.

John Calipari's club shared the wealth as five Kentucky players were in double figures. In addition , 56% of their 26 field goals were assisted.

Block Party...
Kentucky rejected 13 Jayhawk attempts with 6-10 freshman Anthony Davis leading the way with 7. The blocked shots doesn't even consider the attempts not sent back but altered.

The season is underway.
Ray and the Kansas cheerleaders
in the first shot of the season

Surfing and Thinking...

Josh Harrellson's East Region Performance
Dan Hanner's blog over at the RealGM site is becoming a frequent stop for me these days. Dan chooses his topics well and always makes for an interesting read. I found his post weekend piece, "The Final Four is Set", very interesting given his computed offensive ratings for the Kentucky Wildcats based on the four tournament games played through last weekend. Freshman point guard Brandon Knight has an offensive rating of 95.7, taking 32% of the team possessions ("Jordanesque"), while junior. The PTBs named the All-East Region Team at the end of the Regional Finals Sunday, and as noted by Ray Floriani the five named to the team were...

Brandon Knight, Kentucky -- All-East MVP
Josh Harrellson, Kentucky
DeAndre Liggins, Kentucky
Tyler Zeller, North Carolina and
Harrison Barnes, North Carolina

While I thought the PTBs had the right five players, I disagreed about the MVP. No slight intended to Brandon Knight, who sent Ohio State home Friday night on a jumper with 9.5 seconds left in regulation. Knight also scored 31 points in 74 minutes of play. A tremendous effort, all the more impressive given he is a freshman. I thought however, that junior forward Josh Harrellson, named to the All-Region Team along with his teammate, was the most valuable player on the Kentucky squad that weekend. Harrellson recorded a double-double against Ohio State. The junior was something of a Dutch Boy for Kentucky during the game's 20 minutes, supplying 12 of Kentucky's 30 first half points on 6-8 shooting. During the first 16½ minutes of the game Kentucky's forward was a perfect 5-5 as he, along with Darius Miller supplied 17 of the Wildcats' first 25 points, as the two teams struggled for control of the game. Harrellson paced Kentucky with a double-double, recording 10 rebounds to go with his 17 point performance. After going 6-8 (and 0-0 from the line) in the first half, Harrellson was a perfect 1-1 and 3-3 from the line. Though Knight and Doron Lamb started much faster in the North Carolina game on Sunday contributing eight points apiece through the first half, Harrellson again provided the Wildcats offense with teeth, scoring 10 points on 3-4 shooting from the field and 4-6 scoring from the line through the first 20 minutes. He finished with 12 points and eight rebounds.

Shooting in Stadiums vs Shooting in Arenas
Kevin Pelton over at Basketball Prospectus looked at the conversion data for arenas versus stadia for the regional finals in 2009 and 2010. His findings...no appreciable difference -- and that is especially true for three point attempts.

Coincidence? I Think Not
Pete Thamel over at the New York Times broke a story on Friday (April 1...) that featured ex-UConn player (who never made it onto the court) Nate Miles who reversed an earlier stand of non-cooperation with the NCAA's investigation of recruiting improprieties by refuting denials of specific knowledge made in writing by Jim Calhoun and Tom Moore late last fall. Thamel has a history of "good timing" on his breaking news. His expose of then-Seton Hall coach Bobby Gonzalez's bad coaching behavior on the eve of the Big East Tournament in 2010 managed to distract the program during a late season push for an NCAA bid. Though Thamel has made John Calipari's management of the Kentucky program something of a personal project, it was FOXSports who broke the second edition of the Bilal Batley saga earlier today. Just to level the playing field for UConn and Kentucky I suppose. Allegations that Batley, while in a non-coaching position on Kentucky's staff, assisted several players on the court resulted in his resignation last fall. Earlier today FOXSports alleged that Batley also made impermissible contacts with recruits, the kind of no-no that got Kelvin Sampson fired at Indiana (and censored at Oklahoma) and put Connecticut (along with several more serious violations) in hot water with the NCAA last fall.

NCAA East Region -- How the East Was Won

By the Numbers...
This was supposed to be a match-up of stud freshmen guards, Kendall Marshall for North Carolina versus Brandon Knight for Kentucky, but though Knight took the pg spot on the All-Region team and the Region MVP award, it was not the Kentucky freshman who drew his UNC counterpart on defense. That task went to junior DeAndre Liggins who received a rare start over freshman Doron Lamb, one of several Friday-to-Sunday adjustments Kentucky Coach John Calipari made as preparation for the Regional Final. When the final buzzer sounded Kentucky had earned the last ticket to Houston, affirmed by their 76-69 win over the University of North Carolina. How did the highest remaining seed (a #2, OSU having fallen Friday night) get sent home? The breakdown by halves...

	First		Second		Total
Pace	36.1		36.8		72.9
	Kentucky				North Carolina
	First	Second	Total		First	Second	Total
Rating	105.4	103.3	104.3		83.2	106.0	94.7
eFG%	56.7	61.5	58.9		40.0	51.6	46.0
TORate	16.6	21.7	20.4		24.5	24.8	26.1
OR%	22.2	31.3	26.5		31.6	29.4	30.6
FTA/FGA	23.3	34.6	28.6		26.7	21.9	24.2
FTM/FGA	13.3	23.1	17.9		20.0	18.8	19.4
ARate	64.3	53.8	59.3		63.6	37.5	48.1
Blk%	3.3	7.1	8.9		10.0	6.3	8.1
Stl%	10.9	7.3	13.1		16.3	9.9	13.0
PPWS	1.14	1.26	1.19		0.89	1.10	1.00
2FG%	42.1	46.7	44.1		39.1	65.2	52.2
3FG%	54.5	54.5	54.5		28.6	11.1	18.8
FT%	57.1	66.7	62.5		75.0	85.7	80.0
%2FG	42.1	36.8	39.5		60.0	76.9	69.6
%3FG	47.4	47.4	47.4		20.0	7.7	13.0
%FT	10.5	15.8	13.2		20.0	15.4	17.4

The possession-based stats confirm what everyone who watched knew -- though the game was played at a pace comfortable for the Tar Heels, Coach Roy Williams' North Carolina squad had a terrible first half. UNC's first half offense encountered three problems...
1. Turnover rate of 24.5%, the first half provided fewer scoring opportunities than expected for an offense that typically yields 1.12 points per possession.
2. Field goal attempts did not fall -- note the highlighted (yellow) eFG%; 40.0% is not fatal, but coupled with a
3. A surprisingly modest offensive rebound rate meant that misses on the first try ended tallied as empty trips. The rebounding fall off was all the more surprising given the presence of John Henson and Tyler Zeller, two players ranked (#90 & #235 respectively) in Ken Pomeroy's Top 500 Offensive Rebounders.

The Wildcats took an eight point cushion (38-30) into the intermission, and North Carolina spent much of the second half in a four-to-eleven point limbo, their runs slowed by multiple empty trips...uncharacteristic for the Tar Heels this season.

Neutralizing the Front Court Edge
Coach Calipari, from the post game press conference:

What we were doing with Zeller was we were meeting him early so he couldn't bury you under the basket...the second thing we did on the right side facing the court, if he's on that side we were going to trap big to big. The left side we were digging guards, they were digging down, that's what we tried to do...

Through much of the first half the gameplan worked. Zeller was limited under the basket (when he managed to get position, he was effective) as Harrellson was effective shunting him to one side of the lane or the other. And when he faded to the right side...

Tyler Zeller (44) doubled by Josh Harrellson (55 - right)
and Terrence Jones (3 - left). Zeller does not have a clear pass to
John Henson, whose left arm is visible
above Harrellson's head. Unlike Marquette's Davante Gardener Friday,
Jones moved decisively to double Zeller. The pass was picked off

The Wildcats were also helped immensely by Henson's absence. The junior forward was whistled for his second foul at 10:07 of the first half. To that point Henson had five rebounds (1-4), and Coach Williams decided to leave him in. The gamble backfired as Henson was tagged with his third foul about 3:30 minutes (and two rebounds) later. Henson sat for the balance of the first half (about 6:39 minutes) and played for about four minutes of the second half before picking up foul number four. Henson returned to the bench for about nine more minutes before Coach Williams had to put him back in. Henson fouled out with less than 20 seconds on the clock, but the sophomore, who logged nearly 1,000 minutes during the season and played for 32 minutes Friday against Marquette, played just 24 minutes against Kentucky. He gathered nine rebounds and scored four points in his 24 minutes of playing time, versus 12 rebounds, 14 points and five blocks versus Marquette. For the season, Henson averaged 10.1 rebounds and 11.7 points per outing.

Kentucky forward Josh Harrellson (55) found Justin Knox (25)
an easier assignment.

The First Five Minutes
From Josh Harrellson's post game comments...

...the first five minutes of each half really dictates the game. You always want to come out and play strong and...we played aggressive, played together as a team and that really dictates what's going to happen throughout the first half...I think we did a good job coming out and dictating the whole game and running our stuff and keeping them out of their basketball game.

A breakdown of the box score confirms the senior forward assertion...

	Pts	Poss	ppp	eFG%
North Carolina	6	9	0.67	37.5%
Kentucky	11	9	1.22	64.3%

The Wildcats had a five point advantage coming out of those first five minutes of the game. They stretched it by three more points over the last 15 minutes of the first half. The Tar Heels managed to drop another point behind the Wildcats over the first five minutes of the second half, setting the score at 47-38. And through the balance of the second half the 'Heels managed to outscore the 'Cats 31-28, but it was too little too late. Throughout the second half North Carolina was able to regain the offensive advantage, knotting the score at 67 at the 3:18 mark, but when they needed a stop on Ketucky's next possession, they could not get it. Brandon Knight hit a three point shot 20 seconds later to put the Wildcats on top for good. Through the end of the game, Kentucky outscored North Carolina 9-2, scoring on four of those last five possessions.

The Back Benchers
When asked about getting the starting nod over freshman Doron Lamb, junior DeAndre Liggins seemed nonchalant, "It wasn't...(a) big deal to me. Coach say he is going to start me, no disrespect to Doron...we play six guys, so it doesn't matter. And Doron came out and hit some shots for us to help us out..." The motivation for starting the game with Kentucky's best defensive player on the floor was intended as a game changer, but Liggins, at 6-6 often found himself guarding a taller wing, rather than the assignment he drew Sunday -- UNC's freshman guard Kendall Marshall. "...DeAndre was going to pick up the ball to try to slow down Marshall, because if Marshall had his way I thought it would be a problem..." Calipari explained, "Because I think he's (Marshall) changed their team and I think he's a terrific basketball player. And I thought that DeAndre could stunt off of him and stunt and dig into the post. And just try to bother him..." Calipari finished with a modest "...I don't know if it did (work)...", but the 6-3 Marshall shot converted 2-10 from the field, including a brutal 1-5 from beyond the arc. Although he managed to dish eight dimes, Marshall also had three turnovers. Liggins, Harrellson and Darius Miller combined to go 12-24 from the field, including 4-7 from the three point line to score 35 of Kentucky's 76 points.

Miller (1) hits a jumper over Harrison Barnes (40)
in the 2nd half two of the eventual 11 points he scored

Calipari refered to Josh Harrellson's conditioning along with Miller and Liggins' improvement over the course of the season, several times on Friday, and returned to the topic four times in the Sunday press conference

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: NCAA East Region Finals

by Ray Floriani

NEWARK, NJ - Kentucky is Final Four bound and headed to Houston. The Newark Regional final gave us another classic forty minutes of drama and capped off a great weekend at the Prudential Center. The Wildcats outlasted North Carolina 76-69 on Sunday to advance.

outside the Rock
about 80 minutes prior to tip

The pace and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Kentucky	69	110
North Carolina	71	97

Carolina fans outside the Rock

The tempo was more in line to North Carolina’s favor. The Tar Heels are a low seventy possession club while Kentucky is in the low to mid sixties. Regardless, a little quicker tempo was not detrimental to the Wildcats. The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Kentucky	59	18	27	20
North Carolina	46	19	31	18

One small section of the Kentucky contingent

Kentucky came out the aggressor. Probably surprising their opponents a bit as they looked to run. It was all part of a plan to establish a good start. As senior center Josh Harrellson said, “...the first four or five minutes set the tone for the game. We wanted a good start...“ They got it as the Wildcats had a 9-4 lead at the 16 minute mark. Both teams had 7 possessions so the ‘first four’ efficiency read:

	Eff.
Kentucky	129
North Carolina	57

Kentucky was not planning to get into an all out transition game. Coach John Calipari always made sure their was good spacing, to prevent quick opposition outlets and transition, by the Wildcats on any shots. Calipari knew Carolina would get breaks, he just wanted to limit the damage done. UNC scored 12 points in transition. From Kentucky’s viewpoint. Mission accomplished.

The Kentucky defense was had an above average performance. The 97 efficiency and a 46% eFG mark are exhibit’s a and B. Wildcats built a 38-30 half time lead, largely on forcing UNC into a 24% TO rate. The second half, saw the Tar Heels care for the ball a lot better with a 12% rate and only 4 possessions of giving up the ball.

DeAndre Liggins drew a starting assignment for his defense. The sophomore guard’s main task was to contain UNC lead guard Kendall Marshall, especially in not allowing him to stop him from igniting the break. Liggins did the job and on his own behalf hit a huge three that increased UK’s lead to four with just under a minute remaining.

Kentucky sign sums it up

Once again John Calipari used a short, in numbers, rotation. Eight players appeared and six logged 25 or more minutes. The Kentucky mentor said on Friday, during his UMass days the late Jack Leaman convinced him smaller rotations were the best. The reasoning was the more players you use the talent tends drops off. A limited rotation gives those players more playing time and allows them to get better.

Brandon Knight did not wait until the final minutes to be a factor. The Kentucky freshman led all scorers with 22 points and continuously hit a number of big shots. Knight was 7 of 18 from the floor including 5 of 7 beyond the arc. Knight earned tournament Most Outstanding Player accolades. Good case could have been made for Josh Harrellson. The Kentucky senior center scored 12 points, grabbed 8 rebounds and had 4 assists. His hard work battling Jared Sullinger on Friday was good a reason as any that Kentucky was on the floor Sunday.

the faithful stat girl
who gave us updated box scores
every media time out

Harrison Barnes scored 18 points and hit a succession of big shots, especially the second half, that prevented Kentucky from pulling away.

Kentucky attempted 39% of their shots from three point range. It was a case of taking what the defensive gives as Calipari noted North Carolina jammed the middle. The outside shot was there. Kentucky took it and made it, a blistering 55% (12 of 22) from downtown. By contrast, the Wildcats shot 15 of 34 (44%) from two point range.

North Carolina shot 50% (24 of 48) from two point range but was an icy 3 of 18 (19%) from three. To little surprise, Tar Heels enjoyed a 40-24 edge in points in the paint. The Top 5 Manley performers:

	Manley
	Efficiency
Tyler Zeller, UNC	30
Josh Harrellson, UK	21
Brandon Knight, UK	20
Dexter Strickland, UNC	15
Darius Miller, UK	14

For Zeller, another outstanding .833 efficiency per minute showing. In 36 minutes the junior forward scored a team high 21 points with 9 rebounds and four blocked shots.

Harrison Barnes wound up with an 11 efficiency. Barnes did score 18 points but was 7 of 19 from the floor.

Notes
North Carolina finishes 29-8, Kentucky is an identical 29-8 and not finished yet. Attendance was 18,278. The All-Tournament team:

Josh Harrellson, Kentucky - Tireless inside both nights.
DeAndre Liggins, Kentucky - Came up big defensively and hit the ‘dagger’ in the last minute.
Harrison Barnes, North Carolina - Explosive, played well both contests. Just could not deliver that last minute on Sunday.
Tyler Zeller, North Carolina - Effective and dangerous inside both games.
Brandon Knight, Kentucky (MOP) - Hit the game winner Friday and a number of big ones Sunday.

Predicated on defense.
Kentucky held Ohio state to a 100 efficiency and North Carolina 97. Both outstanding defensive numbers. The eFG numbers given up by the wildcats were 38% (Ohio State) and 46% (Norh Carolina). Something to keep in mind next weekend in Houston.

Taking an analysis break to pose with the UK cheerleaders

NCAA East Region -- Looking Ahead While Looking Back

What have We Learned?
Five hours of basketball matching the four best teams in the East Region leaves the fans in Newark looking at the last two standing in a field of sixteen that included five regular season conference champions, the Big Ten Tournament champion and #1 team in Division 1, the the Southeast Conference Tournament Champion. The evening started with a gutty, but doomed comeback attempt by Marquette that was the very personification of their coach, and as the clock struck midnight in New Jersey, Ohio State, the third #1 seed in this tournament, fell and a Kentucky team as paradoxical as it is young, stepped up to be the last contender, opposite North Carolina, for the last ticket to Houston.

X's and O's, Lacking Jimmys and Joes?
Marquette's Head Coach Buzz Williams approached the dais in the interview room on Thursday to Meet the Press..."What did you say? I was joining you on what?" he asked the moderator in an accent that was neither "true Southern" nor "true Western", the drawl and twang spoken and understood best in the northern and eastern corners of Texas and eastern Oklahoma. "The dais". "How do you spell it?". "D-a-i-s" and as the assembled media chuckled, Buzz slipped comfortably into an Awwww Shucks personna I suspect he assumes everyone east of the Mississippi believes folks from Texas and Oklahoma to be. On the third question however he slipped ever so temporarily out of that role. In response to a question about how the Golden Eagles would deal with the Tar Heels' athletes, Buzz threw off another self-deprecating line about not knowing. Perhaps his ego got the better of him at that point however, and in a slightly lower tone he rattled off a series of statistics that confirmed to anyone paying attention, that he had given the problem of besting North Carolina quite a lot of thought. "I think our offense has to help our defense, similar to how we had play against Syracuse...". If North Carolina took only two more possessions per game than Marquette, the Golden Eagles scored more efficienctly. Smart offense "Live ball turnovers end up being dunks...quick long shots end up being dunks...", would limit North Carolina breakouts and keep Marquette defenders in front of North Carolina runners...

Marquette's Coach Buzz Williams Can Only Watch
As North Carolina deconstructs his defense

I doubt that any of the 17,000+ assembled fans, a cohort that included a healthy sample of Marquette gold, anticipated the 40-15 Tar Heel blitz that blew the Golden Eagles out of the tournament. As Ray Floriani noted (Semi-Finals Recap), Marquette converted at a nightmarish, 0.44 points per possession, rate. To comeback, Marquette would need more than an offensive blitz of their own, they would also have to shut the Heel offense down as well. Extremely difficult to do both without active cooperation by the opponent. Offensively, the Golden Eagles made a game run that saw them post 48 points of their own, but defensively they made no progress at all, yielding 41 points, one more than in the first half, to the UNC juggernaut. Who, outside of the Tar Heel back court, can shutdown the Tar Heel front court?

North Carolina's Runnin' Frontcourt
"I love the way (Roy) Williams uses Barnes" shouted the writer next to me midway through the first half "he can play him anywhere from the #2 to the #4, with his length and speed...". Indeed, all three of the Tar Heel front court starters, 6-8 freshman Harrison Barnes, 6-10 sophomore John Henson and 7-0 Tyler Zeller are fast enough to play to play one spot down while long enough to play one spot up, covering anywhere from the #2 to the #5. If Roy Williams wants to go taller he can move Barnes into the back court (wing) -- as the freshman's 3-7 shooting from beyond the arc hints -- and insert a beefier front court player. Or move Barnes to the low post and...

Justin Knox (25) and Harrison Barnes (40) finish at the rim

...let him go to the cup. John Henson has the length to play the #4, but can also fade to the perimeter and take a three point attempt...

Though he missed the shot this time
forward John Henson (31) has the
requisite form to hit from that distance

The sophomore "utility" front court player logged a double-double (14 & 12) while switching between Jae Crowder and Jimmy Butler on defense.

Note the eye contact between Henson (31 holding the ball)
who gathers the rebound as guard Dexter Strickland (1 far left)
prepares to sprint the length of the floor. The guard finished at the rim

At 7-0 Tyler Zeller can also dominate on the backboards, but is comfortable facing the basket as he shoots. His 1.18 PPWS on 10-19 shooting from the field (all two point attempts) and 7-8 from the line suggest he can be accurate. The Euro-style forward logged a double-double (27 & 12) while dishing four assists and gathering three steals.

Marquette's freshman Davante Gardiner (42) uses his
arms and legs to box out Zeller (44) effectively
A physical player may be needed to neutralize
Zeller's length and mobility

Who the ?/#@!$#$! Is That Player?
From Coach John Calipari's 1:00 am post game press conference...

I think it was November he (#55 Kentucky forward Josh Harrellson) twittered some stuff about me, and I about threw him off the team...I thought better of it and...said, 'You are going to condition for 30 minutes before every practice and then you are going to practice or you can quit.' He worked so hard and all of a sudden his body changed. It's not what I did, it's what he did. His body changed. The extra work got his skills better. And it also got him to think differently. I tell players all the time, if you're going to do the same thing over and over and then expect a different result, that's the definition of insanity. You have to change, your habits, your work habits, your mentality...

Ohio State Coach Thad Matta pleads ineffectually
for a miss as Harrellson releases
his free throw attempt. No such luck Coach

When everyone else on the Kentucky squad was still warming to the task of shutting down Jared Sullinger's Party in the USA, Harrellson's 12 first half points kept Kentucky in the game. The senior supplied ½ of Kentucky's made field goals before the intermission, offsetting a huge advantage (12 vs. 4 made FTs) the Buckeyes gathered at the free throw line. Harrellson finished with 17 points and 10 rebounds, just a tick behind OSU's stud Jared Sullinger's 21 and 17.

OSU's Jared Sullinger (00 left) and UK's Josh Harrellson (55 right)
exchange play lists as they separate under the OSU basket?

The Myth of Youth
Kentucky's heralded freshmen class, Terrence Jones, Brandon Knight and Doron Lamb went a combined 8-25 (5-12, 3-13) and 2-2 from the line to contribute 23 points to the Wildcats' winning effort, while veterans Harrellson, DeAndre Liggins and 6-7 sophomore guard Darius Miller combined for 39 points on 14-23 (1-5, 13-18) shooting and 10-12 from the line. Brandon Knight hit the game winner, a jumper from 12 feet with 9.5 seconds left in regulation. "...they are not freshman anymore at this point..." -- John Diebler, Ohio State.

(Left to right) Brandon Knight (fr), Josh Harrellson (sr) & DeAndre Liggins (jr) break curfew...in front of a roomful of witnesses no less

Between them, these two programs have won 12 National Championships. Can Kentucky keep up with North Carolina? Can Liggins, Jones, Eloy Vargas (6-11 junior) and Harrellson neutralize the Tar Heel front court? The two teams met earlier this season, North Carolina taking a two point decision 75-73 (in a 76 possession game) in Chapel Hill in December. The teams have met 33 times, North Carolina holding an 22-11 edge, and twice in the NCAAs, again North Carolina holding a 2-0 edge.

Ray Floriani and I will be live from the Rock as Rush the Court will host live blogs from San Antonio, TX and Newark, NJ tomorrow.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: NCAA East Region Semi-Finals

by Ray Floriani

NEWARK, NJ - Probably fitting with a city of Newark's long history there will be a regional final between two programs with a lengthy, stored tradition of their own. Kentucky will face North Carolina Sunday for the right to go to Houston.

The Nasto's stand at the Fanfest.
Received a complimentary reginette (it is very good) from the staff.

The scores...

Team	Score			Team
North Carolina	81		63	Marquette
Kentucky	62		60	Ohio State

The game one pace and possessions saw the Tar Heels stepped things up and dictate a tempo more in their favor. Only a strong second half salvaged any offensive efficiency for Marquette. At intermission their OE was an almost unprintable 44.

Marquette players at the anthem

The pace and efficiency:

tr>td>North Carolina

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Marquette	73	86
69	117

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Marquette	48	24	41	25
North Carolina	51	19	48	10

A tale of two halves. A first half 19-0 run by the Tar Heels basically opened up the game and was a deciding factor. Marquette trailed 40-15 at the half. In addition they had 12 turnovers, 6 field goals, zero assists and a 35% TO rate. The second half they shot and defended better but never seriously challenged North Carolina. That 25 point spot midway was too much to overcome.

the packed Rock

North Carolina owned a 29-15 edge in points off turnovers, the damage done mostly the first half. They also outscored Marquette 46-32 in points in the paint. In somewhat of a stat oddity, Marquette led 42-5 in bench points. Two reasons. Non-starters, Davante Gardner (16 points) and Jae Crowder (11) were two of Marquette's better point producers. Secondly, Roy Williams used a short, in numbers, rotation with six players getting 21 or more minutes.

Buzz Williams in the post game press conference
More questions than answers...

The Second Game
Game two, no surprise in the pace. These teams were content to grind this one out.

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Kentucky	59	105
Ohio State	60	100

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Kentucky	52	25	26	19
Ohio State	38	29	39	12

The obligatory cheer shot.
Yours truly with the North Carolina cheer squad

Brandon Knight was 2 for 10 when he tried to come off a pick and roll, was defended, and opted for a mid-range jumper instead. The shot found the bottom of the net and proved to be the difference in the Kentucky victory. The late season maturity of Knight cannot be measured statistically. On the game he was 3 of 10 (1 of6 from three) for nine points. But in the stretch the freshman guard stepped up to hit a big trey before the game winner. Don't forget, he scored two points, again the game decider in the first round win over Princeton. With Knight, it's quality not quantity.

Kentucky was hit hard on the offensive glass. Normally they give up a 30% OREB percentage to their opposition. Ohio State put up above average numbers on the offensive glass, largely due to Jared Sullinger's 8 offensive boards.

The Wildcats, though , compensated with a strong showing on defense, limiting turnovers and having Brandon Knight on the floor in the clutch.

Notes
Attendance was 18,343...North Carolina was led by Tyler Zeller with 27 points 12 boards. John Henson teamed with Zeller to form a tough inside game. Henson added 14 points, a dozen rebounds and 5 blocks...Marquette finishes at 22-15.…Marquette's perimeter threat Darius Johnson-Odom struggled through a 2 of 9 shooting night finishing with 7 points…Jared Sullinger led all scorers in game two with 21 points…Josh Harrellson paced Kentucky with 17...Some Manley numbers:

	Manley
	Efficiency
Tyler Zeller, UNC	35
Josh Harrellson, UK	27
Jared Sullinger OSU	26
DeAndre Liggins, UK	21
John Henson, UNC	20
Harrison Barnes, UNC	20
Davante Gardiner, Marquette	17

On a per minute basis, Zeller's efficiency was an off the charts 1.30. Zeller played 27 minutes. Jimmy Butler of Marquette had a solid 16 efficiency. Johnson-Odom struggled, as noted, with a -2 metric. Kentucky's Brandon Knight had only a 4 efficiency. No complaints, I'm sure, from coach Cal, given the outcome.

The Rock about 1:30 am after a long but enjoyable evening

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: NCAA East Region From the Rock

by Ray Floriani

NEWARK, NJ - In this piece we will look at that efficiency margins of the four teams in the Newark Regionals. Efficiency margin is the difference between offensive and defensive efficiency. Obviously, the larger the number the better.

Yours truly, the coffee 'addict'
A Newark favorite near the Rock

Among the four schools, Ohio State is the leader in EM (efficiency margin). The numbers:

	Efficiency
Team	Off.	Def.	Net
Ohio State	121	98	+28
Kentucky	114	96	+18
North Carolina	107	94	+13
Marquette	111	101	+10

Looking at the first two rounds of the tournament, Ohio State is still the leader with a very impressive number. The average EM of the four through two rounds:

	EM
	Avg.
Ohio State	+49.0
Marquette	+12.0
North Carolina	+10.0
Kentucky	+7.5

Downtown Newark, Broad Street on Thursday

Ohio state was +50 in their first round win over 16 seed UTSA. Buckeyes, expected to be challenged by George Mason were +48 in the second round rout over the Patriots.

Kentucky, Marquette and North Carolina's EM were affected by close contests. John Calipari's club was +3 in that squeaker over Princeton in round one. Carolina's narrow win over Washington in round two saw the Heels post a +4.

Ohio state's Jared Sullinger signing autographs after practice

Marquette had two tough games en route to Newark. Their win over Syracuse was a +6 EM. The Xavier game in round one, was competitive ( a 66-55 Marquette decision) but their EM was a healthy +18.

The NCAA tournament provides tougher competition and sterner tests, even in the early rounds. Ohio State, given their numbers, enters the Prudential Center playing at a very high level on both ends of the floor.

The rock during UNC practice

Got to chat with Marquette assistant Scott Monarch. Head coach Buzz Williams and the Marquette staff buy into and use tempo-free statistics a great deal. We discussed the cutoff rate (20%) of turnover rate or percentage. Monarch agreed Marquette's TO rate was too high 22% against Syracuse. The deciding factor though, was the Orange's TO problems with a 28% showing. At any rate, always great to discuss tempo-free with a fellow follower of the study.

Looking towards the Rock from Branford Place
A church, one of Newark's many historic buildings,
is in the foreground

greyCat adds -- Both Ray and I will be covering the East Region Friday night and Sunday. I will be a panelist for the Live Blog event over at Rush the Court Ray and I will provide post game analysis over here at Villanova by the Numbers. Drop in to the Live Blog tomorrow night & check back here for post game thoughts on the East Region.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: A Quick Recap of West Virginia & Kentucky

by Ray Floriani

LYNDHURST, NJ - Kentucky is 'Brick City' bound. The Wildcats punched their ticket to the Newark Regional with a hard fought 71-63 victory over West Virginia on Saturday. The numbers:

		Off.
Team	Poss.	Off.
West Virginia	63	100
Kentucky	62	116

* Post game, Mountaineer coach Bob Huggins felt the difference was shooting from the floor. Kentucky did have a 54-48% advantage in the eFG percentage. But the big difference was the play of Brandon Knight. The Wildcat freshman, with the game winner against Princeton on Thursday, came up big with 30 points. Knight was 9 of 10 from the line and helped John Calipari's club ice the game down the stretch.

Knight scored two and had a -1 Manley rating against Princeton. Today he had the complete effort with the aforementioned 30 points and a 21 Manley efficiency rating. It very much needed.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Celebrating the Madness

by Ray Floriani

HACKENSACK, NJ - 'March Madness' needs no explanation. Hooters needs little introduction. The famed eating, drinking, casual establishment with the world famous dance team style attired 'Hooters Girls' is a natural for sports fans. In March the establishment literally 'takes it up a notch'.

Knowing very well the appeal of the NCAA will attract an added customer base, Hooters is running two promotions. One, a fund-raiser, is run in conjunction with the V Foundation for cancer research. For every 'like' they receive on their Facebook page between February 22 and April 6, Hooters will donate $1 to the V.

Hard at work watching games and writing
as Crystal (l) and Lauren (r) pay a visit.

The second promotion is a 'National Hooky Day', set for March 17th and 18th, the two days opening the NCAA Tournament in full force. The company or individual Hooters 'stores' were not condoning a fake absence from work or class, however. Rather, you can download a 'note' from 'Nurse Ashleigh' excusing you for your absence and allowing a free appetizer (cheese sticks, onion rings or pickles). The only stipulation was getting to Hooters when a tournament game was telecast which basically covered noon until midnight. And did not interfere with work or class schedules.

With their lineup of available TVs, all games aired at a particular time were available. Stopping in (after a walking workout) on Thursday, the games were closely followed with the Louisville, Temple and Kentucky drawing the most attention.

The only people I noticed in need of medical attention were those who had Louisville headed to the Final Four in their office pools. Shortly after Morehead State's Demonte Harper's trey found nothing but net, there were a few groans. Nurse Ashleigh would have had a few 'patients'.

(l-r) Heather, Crystal, Lauren and Nadia
and an advertisement featuring the ubiquitous Dick Vitale

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: BE-SEC 1st Night at the Garden

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY - Many times the game does not live up to the hype. Not last night. UConn-UK gave us everything. Intensity of March, a packed (15,000 plus) Garden, the first collegiate appearance in New York of Kentucky’s eminently praised freshman sensation John Wall and two marquee programs laying it all on the line in the feature contest of the SEC-Big east Challenge. Kentucky defeated UConn 64-61 in a game not decided until the last possession (two missed treys by the Huskies).

Possession numbers:
Went over calculations a few times but still had a three possession difference. Many times possessions are even sometimes they deviate by one or two. A difference of three is not a regular occurrence.

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Kentucky	71	90
UConn	67	91

Kentucky opened the first four minutes with a 12-0 run. During that stretch UCONN had more timeouts (2) than points (0). They never panicked and gradually got back in it. Transition opportunities fueled by some solid inside play allowed UConn to establish a run to take the lead.

UConn led 29-23 at the break but Kentucky opened strong and gradually rebuilt a slim lead. With a minute to go UConn led 61-60. With half a minute to go and the entire Garden knowing his number would be called, John Wall , UK’s marquee freshman, converted a conventional three point play for the ultimate margin of victory.

The four factors:

		FTM
	eFG%	FGA	OReb%	TO%
Kentucky	41	17	36	20
UConn	46	28	44	30

The UConn turnover rate stands out as absurdly high. The work on the offensive boards offset the turnovers to a degree for UCONN. A glaring figure on the stat sheet was UConn’s 14 of 24 from the line. A game breaker in a one possession affair as this.

Wall led all scorers with 25 points. He scored four of UK’s 5 field goals the last 8 minutes. Calipari quickly notes the signs of youth, 2 assists 7 turnovers. But for a highly touted frosh to come into a packed MSG, against an outstanding program, and will his team to win in crunch time speaks volumes of his ability and collective poise.

Patrick Patterson had a solid 16 point effort for the Wildcats. UCONN was led by Jerome Dyson with 17 points. Gavin Edwards continues to impress. A career 3 ppg scorer entering this season, the 6-10 senior came off the bench to contribute 16 points 8 rebounds.

The first game saw St.John’s earn a 66-56 victory over Georgia. Following the game Georgia coach Mark Fox commented, “I thought in the first half we played pretty well.” A breakdown at the half with St.John’s leading 28-25.

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
St. John's	31	90
Georgia	32	78

‘Pretty well’? The defensive efficiency of 90 can get you a fair amount of wins. Even there, St.John’s eFG percentage was 45% and the turnover rate was under 20%. Georgia defense was respectable the first twenty minutes, nothing great. The offense was ‘offensive’. A 78 OE is putrid. Even colleagues without calculators going while quotes were being scribbled, wondered about Fox’s assessment of the first twenty minutes.

For the game:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
St. John's	63	105
Georgia	63	89

The four factors:

		FTM
	eFG%	FGA	OReb%	TO%
St. John's	56	18	29	24
Georgia	40	32	32	22

St.John’s coach Norm Roberts cited ball pressure on the guards and a good defensive effort as keys. Turnover rate was largely due to some carelessness with the ball with a double digit lead in the waning minutes, something Roberts wants to address.

Dwight Hardy led St.John’s with 12 points. DJ Kennedy, Paris Horne and Sean Evans did not start due to being 3 minutes late for the team bus. The St.John’s trio all played 29-31 minutes and contributed.

Red Storm improved to 7-1 and a significant sign to date, they are beating the teams they should.

Trey Thompkins, a 6-10 soph, led all scorers with 19 points. He is the Bulldogs lone signature or go to player. It figures to be a long year in Athens, Georgia.

“This team has a nice will to win. We have to stop drinking the poison (listening to the hype) and just get better in practice.” - UK coach John Calipari

“(John) Wall is ‘all of that’ He’s a tremendous, tremendous player. He is a big time player.” - UConn coach Jim Calhoun

DeCourcy -- Fisher One of Top 10 Point Guards

Another dividend of the Final Four run last season? Or the extra exposure from the World University Games over the summer? According to Mike DeCourcy over at The Sporting News Villanova's Corey Fisher is the #9 point in DI ball. Says DeCourcy, "He should increase his 24.3-minute average. Others recognized include fellow Big East bballer Kemba Walker (#5) from UConn and former Big East bballer from Cincinnati (now at South Carolina), Devan Downey, who DeCourcy ranked at #4. DeCourcy also recognized freshmen John Wall (#2) and Abdul Gaddy (#7), who begin their DI careers at Kentucky and Washington respectively.

Congratulations Corey!

Coaching Carousal Part 4: Butterfly Effect

Dominos -- Don Monson "Resigns" as a Gopher & Gregg Marshall Becomes the Head Shocker
Don Monson was the very successful Head Coach of the Gonzaga Bulldogs. The University of Minnesota needed a head coach and enticed Don Monson east in the 1998 off season. Monson coached at Minnesota for nearly 7 seasons, taking the Gophers to an NCAA in 2005 and 4 NITs. By 2006 however the AD wanted a change and Monson was tired enough to "resign" 7 games into the 2006 season. The AD named Monson's assistant Jim Molinari the interim coach and opened a quiet, season-long, coaching search. That administrative decision set in motion a sequence of coaching changes (commonly called the Coaching Carousal), which resembles the tumbling motion of domino tiles. Monson out; Tubby Smith leaves Kentucky to take the Minnesota job. Billy Gillispie leaves Texas A&M to take the Kentucky job. Mark Turgeon leaves Wichita State to take the TAMU job. Gregg Marshal leaves Winthrop to take the Wichita State job. Assistant Coach Randy Peele is promoted to the head coaching job. The Minnesota-->Kentucky-->TAMU-->Wichita State-->Winthrop sequence from the 2007 off season is one of the longer sequences in recent years, but a good illustration of the direct, A-to-B-to-C, nature of head coaches changing jobs. The longest head coaching sequence this off season, strangely enough, was triggered when Virginia fired Dave Leitao (former assistant at Connecticut and head coach at DePaul). That move set off two more head coaching changes, the second at Washington, when Tony Bennett moved over to take the Cavalier job, and at Portland State, when Ken Bone moved over to take the Wassou job. That 3 coach shift took just over 4 weeks to complete -- Leitao was fired on March 16; Viking Assistant coach Tyler Geving was promoted to the Head Coaching job on April 13.

Butterflies -- Billy Clyde Gets Fired & Born Ready Becomes a 'Cat (or a Tiger?)
Watching the recruiting process is a bit like watching a field of butterflies. Too many clustered around a single clump of clover and the others will drift off looking for another cluster. A single butterfly meanders off on a completely different course; four circle aimlessly as if lost or waiting. While few or none of them meander over to a particular part of the field in view. What influences the choices for butterflies? Ask a recruit why he chose a particular school and he may talk about anything from the location, the programs of study, the traditions (sports or otherwise), the opportunity to play, to go to the NCAA or even pursue a career in the NBA. Any given recruit might mention any combination of those reasons. Rarely does the recruit say his other choices were terrible. He wanted to go to the University of X but they didn't have a scholarship, or the coach was a feuding with his family/AAU coach/HS coach, and so on. Is D1 recruiting less predictable than the weather?

Coaches recruit the players. While an assistant coach may set up contact with the recruit and his family, the Head Coach often serves as the closer in the process. When the high schooler signs his (or her) National Letter of Intent (NLI), it is sent to the college/university where the Coach works. Coaches recruit players, but recruits "sign" to play for a school. Luke Winn's April 20 article for Sports Illustrated reviews the consequences of Billy Gillispie's firing from the University of Kentucky and John Calipari's much covered decision to take the job with the most obesssive fans in D1 basketball. Gillispie had a class of his own signed to play in the Blue Grass next season (not to mention the returning squad that featured Patrick Patterson and Jodie Meeks). Calipari left a handful of recruits at Memphis. As UK's recruits examined their options and waited to talk with Calipari, the Memphis recruits reviewed their options (and asked for their releases). SI's Andy Staples notes that recruits, particularly at mid-major schools, are pushing for side agreements to their NLI which, though not recognized by the NCAA, would allow them to be released should the coach leave for another job. Calipari's move affected more than the incoming classes at Kentucky and Memphis. Lance Stephenson, Scout Inc.'s #12 seemed bound for Kansas and Bill Self, but Caplipari's move meant Xavier Henry, a guard Self recruited hard during the fall and winter, was again "on the market". Self put Stephenson on hold while he pursued Henry, who he managed to sign last week. Meanwhile Maryland and St. John's, who had pursued Stephenson (as their 1st choice) through the same fall and winter, find they still have to wait on Stephenson. The self-styled "Born Ready" is still not ready to make a decision about college. Memphis and Arizona, both of whom lost coaches in the past month, are looking for late spring recruiting pickups.

Villanova fans remember Scottie Reynolds came to the Main Line as a result of spring coaching changes. Back in 2007 Mike Davis left Indiana (he eventually took the UAB job), and the Hoosiers hired Kelvin Sampson, then Head Coach at Oklahoma. Sampson had signed Scottie Reynolds out of Herndon, Viginia during the Fall signing period, but Reynolds was reluctant to go to Norman and play for an as yet unknown coach. He received his release and was pursued by Michigan and Villanova. Though he had been recruited the previous year by Michigan Head Coach Tommy Amaker, Reynolds chose Villanova and Coach Wright. He may well have been influenced by speculation that Amaker's job was in jeopardy. Amaker was fired the following off season, and currently heads up the men's basketball program at Harvard.

By the Numbers
With just under 2 weeks left in the Spring signing period, there have been a total of 26 vacancies. Through this time last off season there were 42 (of a 43 total vacancies). Projecting forward, there may be another 1-2 vacancies (all things equal...), most likely from circumstances unforeseen. Like the previous two offseasons, the period of heaviest turnover was during the NCAAs, where this season nearly 50% of the vacancies were created during the 3 week tournament.