Maalik Wayns Named to Wooden Award Watch List

The Bob Cousy Award
The Villanova Athletic Department and the Los Angeles Athletic Club made simultaneous announcements this afternoon that junior point guard Maalik Wayns had been named to the 2011 Preseason Wooden Award Watch List. Maalik follows in the footsteps of Corey Fisher, Scottie Reynolds and Randy Foye, Villanova guards who have been named to the Watch List in previous preseasons. A total of 10 players (two each from Connecticut and Syracuse) were named to the list released earlier this afternoon. They include...

Player	Pos	Class	School
Jeremy Lamb	F	So	Connecticut
Alex Oriakhi	F/C	Jr	Connecticut
Peyton Siva	PG	Jr	Louisville
Darius Johnson-Odom	G	Sr	Marquette
Tim Abromaitis	F	GS	Notre Dame
Ashton Gibbs	PG	Sr	Pittsburgh
Scoop Jardine	G	Sr	Syracuse
Kris Joseph	F	Jr	Syracuse
Maalik Wayns	PG	Sr	Villanova
Kevin Jones	F	Sr	West Virginia

The Big East contingent is, as usual, contains a large portion of senior & 5th year nominees. Abromaitis, along with DJO, Gibbs, Jardine, Jones, Siva and Joseph have all been named to conference teams (or honorable mentions) in 2011. Jeremy Lamb, named to the conference Rookie Team, played on the U19 team that competed for the U19 World Championship last summer in Latvia.

Other Nominees of Interest
From the Atlantic-10 Conference, Andrew Nicholson (St. Bonaventure) and Tu Holloway (Xavier) were also recognized.

Congratulations Maalik
& all of the nominees

2010-11 Preview -- West Virginia Mountaineers

Too Busy for the Details?
West Virginia finished the 2010 Big East season strong, running the table at Madison Square Garden and brushing their first three NCAA opponents by nine or better points. Putting down the Kentucky Wildcats, 73-66, in the East Regional the Mountaineers punched their ticket to the second Final Four in the program's history. Their loss to eventual champion Duke in the semi-final was overshadowed by the uncertainty surrounding senior Da'Sean Butler, injured during the game, who appeared prepared to play at the next level once his days in Morgantown were done. Coach Huggins will see his back court return intact and hopefully healthier in 2011 than 2010. Casey Mitchell and Deniz Kilicli should be aclimated to the West Virginia system. Can the Mountaineers make it two consecutive Final Fours? They have a good starting point.  Prognosis -- A 1st quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2011	2010	2009
%Min	55.9	82.9	58.8
%Pts	52.3	66.0	62.2
%FGM	52.5	81.7	60.0
%3FGM	56.8	62.3	64.8
%OReb	51.9	92.3	65.2
%DReb	48.5	87.3	60.0
%TReb	49.8	89.2	61.7

Returning points, considering the losses include four year players Da'Sean Butler and Wellington Smith, along with Devin Ebanks, is surprisingly close to returning minutes. The points can be replaced as there are several Mountaineer bballers ready to step up.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2009-10		2008-09		2007-08
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
BE Off Eff	112.4	2	106.3	8	107.4	4
BE Def Eff	100.3	3	98.1	3	99.6	4
BE Eff Diff	12.1	1	8.2	6	7.8	4
BE Def eFG	48.2	5	47.7	3	50.2	11
BE Def TOv	20.1	5	20.9	3	21.7	3
BE Def OReb	32.9	T4	32.1	5	31.3	5
BE Def FTA/FGA	43.7	14	39.7	13	37.7	8

The defensive numbers have remained fairly "steady" over the past three seasons, though the Mountaineers are becoming (note their FGA/FGA for defense) far more physical defenders than they were under John Beilein. In the transition from John Beilein's finesse-oriented style of offense and defense, the Bob Huggins squads have not developed a "signature" defensive feature. They do not excel at shot defense, nor at rebounding (remarkable considering their offensive rebounding), nor for forcing turnovers. The uptick in allowing opponents to get to the line, taken here as an indication of more physical play, is the only noticeable difference in defensive play over the last three season. If the defense is largely nondescript (physical play excepted), the same cannot be said for the offense...

Care to guess Bob Huggins' first season?

The transition from efficient shot selection to offensive rebounding is remarkable. While the current coach may have carried over much of the Beilein offensive playbook, the shift from working the defense to free a shooter (usually on the perimeter) and snag a high-percentage shot to controlling the boards for the second-chance opportunity is striking. Note that West Virginia hovered on the boundary separating the first and second quartiles (#3 down to #5) while making this offensive transition. Can the Mountaineers improve their Big East standing? The data would suggest they cannot get much better at offensive rebounding. With turnovers and FTA/FGA fluctuating from season-to-season, eFG% (shooting efficiency) would have to improve for West Virginia to maintain their place at the table in the first quartile. In an offense where efficient shot making predominates, turnovers may play a more important role than offensive rebounding.

	For the Record...
	2009-10			2008-09			2007-08
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	31	7	0.816	23	12	0.657	26	11	0.703
Big East	13	5	0.722	10	8	0.556	11	7	0.611
Post Season?	NCAA Rnd #5			NCAA Rnd #1			NCAA Rnd #3

The Mountaineer's Nucleus
When Coach Bob Huggins runs his first practice, he will look on a squad composed nearly entirely of players he (and Assistant Coach Billy Hahn) recruited. Ironically, the squad is not much longer than those assembled by John Beilein, but they faster and more athletic.

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
Kevin Jones	81.2	124.6	18.5	21.5	57.6	12.0	1.18	28.5
Darryl Bryant	55.0	102.7	23.9	21.4	42.4	2.7	1.00	56.0
Joe Mazzulla	38.5	91.5	15.2	10.0	37.5	2.1	0.87	76.2
John Flowers	35.4	102.5	14.6	12.6	48.5	6.1	0.98	50.0
Casey Mitchell	18.5	102.8	24.3	33.3	41.5	5.4	0.80	15.6
Cam Thoroughman	16.8	91.2	12.4	6.0	50.0	9.0	1.05	109.1
Dalton Pepper	14.8	112.5	20.3	27.8	47.2	4.4	0.98	12.2

Look for juniors Kevin Jones and Truck Bryant to function as first and second scoring options when they are on the floor. They should be augmented by back court/wing players Casey Mitchell and Dalton Pepper, two of the most efficient rotation players last season. If they increase their time without reducing their usage (Poss%) or sacrificing efficiency (ORtg), they should be able to make up for the departed offense. West Virginia fans who look to senior John Flowers for a big step up will be disappointed. Flowers will get minutes, and the senior has provided better efficiency than (say) Joe Mazzulla, but Flowers has not provided more than limited role player-type offense in his previous three seasons, and will not grow much beyond that level this season either. An "X Factor" player going into this season is sophomore forward/center Deniz Kilicli, a Turk who sat for an NCAA-mandated 23 games last season. Should the Turk improve his rebounding (his shot efficiency, 51.2% eFG%, compared favorably with other members of the squad), he will see (a lot) more floor time in 2011.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Kevin Jones	81.2	13.0	7.2	10.9	3.1	1.1
Darryl Bryant	55.0	7.7	25.2	21.6	0.1	1.8
Joe Mazzulla	38.5	11.2	26.5	28.0	0.2	2.5
John Flowers	35.4	13.5	15.5	20.2	6.0	2.4
Casey Mitchell	18.5	7.5	9.9	10.7	0.0	2.2
Cam Thoroughman	16.8	10.5	11.6	34.8	1.8	1.2
Dalton Pepper	14.8	4.7	15.1	9.4	0.5	1.1

Not a good sign when the point guard is the second-most efficient defensive rebounder. Jones is a great offensive rebounder, but has to get better on the defensive glass. And someone from Pepper, Kilicli and Flowers will have to improve greatly if the West Virginia is to stay among the conference elites in defense.

Significant Additions
The Mountaineers' entering class, on the small (in number) size, has been steadily reduced. A single player, 6-10, 235 pound Kevin Noreen out of Minneapolis, MN is available. Noah Cottrill, a 6-3, 195 scoring machine, was suspended indefinitely in late October. Red shirt freshman Kenny Ross, a 6-0 175 pound guard, may see some rotation minutes.

Explode If...
1. Pepper, Kilicli and Mitchell can efficienctly replace the departed scoring.
2. The Mountaineers can take better care of the ball. Turnovers were not a drag on the offense last season, but should Coach Huggins' squad reduce their turnover rate (17.2% in conference play last season) by another 4% (which would rank them in the top 2-3 in conference) they could get another 2-3 field goal attempts per game in the bargain.
3. Bryant improves his shot conversion efficiency to "average". The guard was terrible last season, converting just 37.7% of his 2 point attempts and 31.5% of his 3 point attempts.

Implode If...
1. Reduction in the number of players available. The exact reason does not really matter, health or discipline failings can net the same result, and the squad has suffered both, and NCAA sanctions as well, over the past three seasons. At least five different players have had at least six run-ins that resulted in loss of game time. The coach does not have a deep enough squad this season to sustain efficiency should another player or two have to sit.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
West Virginia will rely on the 2010 Puerto Rico Tip-Off field to provide some credibility to their out of conference (OOC) schedule. Their first round opponent will be Davidson (Southern Conference), with either Nebraska (Big 12) or Vanderbilt (SEC -- most likely) to follow. High majors bracketed in the other half of the field include North Carolina (ACC -- a possible third opponent), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt powerhouse) and Minnesota (Big Ten -- possible fourth opponent). Puerto Rico comes early (November 18 through November 21), so the trip to Miami for a December 4 game is, local rivals Robert Morris and Duquesne aside, their sternest test before the Big East schedule. WVU does have two additional OOC games after conference play begins -- a made-for-TV matchup with Purdue (1/16) and traditional in state rival Marshall (1/19). If the Mountaineers are 11-0/10-1 (a reasonable expectation) when they meet St. John's on 12/29, they will ranked in the national polls and probably in line for a very good (#3 or better) seed in the NCAAs. 8-3 (or worse) and West Virginia fans will be pining for the days of Da'Sean Butler and Devin Ebanks.

West Virginia's mirrors, Backyard Brawl rival Pittsburgh, Louisville and DePaul, are a good, representative mix of the conference. Given the Coliseum's intimidation factor, the 'Eers should be able to wring a 4-2 or even 5-1 record from that trio. Noting the Coliseum as an advantage, hosting St. John's, Notre Dame and Seton Hall should translate into Ws for Coach Huggins' squad and provide a tie-breaker edge with teams that may well challenge for position in conference standings. The Johnnies and Pirates visit fairly early in the conference season. The Mountaineers open the conference season with a five game slate before they take a two game "OOC break". Those five games include a home opener against St. John's (welcome to the Big East Steve Lavin!), followed by a three game road trip (WVU's longest road run) that takes the squad out to the midwest (Marquette and DePaul) with a chaser in DC (Georgetown) and then a home game against Providence. Sporting a 3-2 conference record before hosting Purdue would be par for the course (but a bit disappointing?). Anything less should be cause for concern, though not surprising if their OOC record was (say) 8-3 or poorer. The last half of the schedule, on paper, is tougher than the first, so keeping the losses to one or two is important. The far turn features a road trip to Philadelphia and a meeting with Villanova. That game is followed by both Backyard Brawl games and a trip to Syracuse. If WVU has 10-11 conference wins going into the home stretch, they will be in very good shape as they have a trip to Piscataway and a date with Rutgers, followed by a two game homestand that features Connecticut and Louisville. A 3-0 run to close out the conference schedule (combined with the 10-11 wins going in) would put West Virginia in line for a #3/#4 seed in the Big East Tournament.

Rising Juniors -- Nine to Watch

What We Are Looking For
The Big East Conference made this job a lot more difficult back in 2007 when they increased the size of their season-ending "All-Big East...Team"s from five (the traditional number) to eleven. Toss in the three or so Honorable Mentions, and the number of recognized players goes to 25 or so, up from the 15 - 18 most conferences recognize (three "All" Teams, not including a Freshman/Rookie Team, plus two - three Honorable Mentions). The Big East switched back in 2008-09, giving me another seven to eight players to consider for this list. Using Pomeroy's classification system as a guide, I am scouting the "Role" or "Significant Contributor" player, someone who took about 16%-23% of their team's possessions last season, but could grow into a "Major Contributor" or "Go-to Guy" player over the course of the course of next season -- though most probably won't. Pomeroy discusses growth "probabilities" in "Putting Individual Efficiency into Perspective" over at The Basketball Prospectus back in 2007. One thing about these players is clear -- they tend to push at the upper limit of their growth curve each season.

			On Offense...
Player	Coll	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	PPWS
Kevin Jones	WVU	81.2	124.6	18.5	21.5	1.18
Jeff Robinson	Hall	50.1	118.8	19.1	20.9	1.14
Terrence Jennings	LVL	31.6	116.1	18.3	18.6	1.22
Kris Joseph	Cuse	69.6	111.1	19.6	18.4	1.14
Jordan Theodore	Hall	64.5	109.5	19.1	17.7	1.04
Darius Johnson-Odom	MU	73.1	107.0	22.9	24.2	1.16
Yancy Gates	'Nati	62.8	106.9	21.3	22.7	1.07
Augustus Gilchrist	USF	38.1	104.8	25.3	24.6	1.16
Darryl Bryant	WVU	55.0	102.7	23.9	21.4	1.00

The list contains the last member of the Big East's All-Rookie Team from 2009 still in school, Cincinnati's Yancy Gates. Every one else from that team has departed for life in the pros. Gates, whose time with the Bearcats has featured an off-and-on relationship with Head Coach Mick Cronin, found himself, more often than not, the 3^rd last season, and that step back allowed him to trade efficiency for usage, a common trade-off. With seniors Deonta Vaughn and Steven Toyloy graduated, and Lance Stephenson gone in the draft last June, the opportunity to step forward and play a major role in the fate of this team this season is there -- if Gates can stay out of foul trouble (he averaged about 3.8 fouls per 40 minutes last season, per Ken Pomeroy) and maintain or enhance his efficiency even as he takes a larger share of the possessions and shots. The offensively challenged Bearcats (a recurring theme in Coach Cronin's tenure), will have to look to a committee of veteran players, centered on Gates no doubt (and freshman pf Justin Jackson?), to make up for the departed offense. With the spotlight on senior Da'Sean Butler and All Big East Devin Ebanks, more than a few observers missed 6-8 250 lb bfc Kevin Jones, yet he played a crucial role in Coach Huggins' Four Forwards Offense. Though guard-like duties fell to Butler and one of Truck Bryant (see below) or Joe Mazzulla if they were available, Jones proved to be extremely efficient in a just-out-of-the-limelight "Role" player status. Jones was the 3^rd option on offense, but like Gates, two of the bigger options ahead of him last season, Butler and Ebanks, have moved on. Coach Huggins recognized his value, playing Jones a whopping 81% of the time in 2010. Jones' teammate Darryl Bryant should see his possession and shot rates climb this season as well. Bryant, whose effectiveness may have been compromised by personal and health issues in 2010, has the potential to see his role in the offense expand to "Major Contributor" (Poss% 25%-28%) levels, but will have to improve his shot conversion and limit his turnover rate, if he expects to see his efficiency (and playing time) climb. Seton Hall's Jeff Robinson is one of four JUCO/transfers on this list. Times change -- there was a point in time when transfer "stars" were so rare they often drew special attention from the media and coaching staffs. Though he did not qualify for play until the end of the Fall 2009 Semester, Robinson was so effective during the conference portion of the Hall's schedule that he sent starter Robert Mitchell to the bench. Robinson, along with teammates Herb Pope (also a transfer) & Jeremy Hazell, flirted briefly with the NBA draft, but (all) decided to return to South Orange for another season. Recruited by departed coach Bobby Gonzalez, Robinson is a 'tweener, who has the size of a #2/#3 with the skill set of a slasher. He will see even more floor time this season if his defensive rebounding matched his offensive board work (see below). Robinson's teammate and fellow "Watch List"er Jordan Theodore should see a larger role in the offense now that Eugene Harvey and Keon Lawrence have moved on. Theodore has much the same conversion deficiency as Truck Bryant, but without the turnovers and other baggage Bryant may carry.

			Four Factors...
						FTA
Player	Coll	%Min	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
Kevin Jones	WVU	81.2	57.6	12.0	10.9	28.5
Jeff Robinson	Hall	50.1	54.3	9.2	8.5	35.0
Terrence Jennings	'Ville	31.6	61.7	13.6	17.4	34.8
Kris Joseph	Cuse	69.6	50.8	7.7	18.2	59.8
Jordan Theodore	Hall	64.5	47.5	3.0	16.2	37.8
Darius Johnson-Odom	MU	73.1	56.4	2.0	18.1	28.7
Yancy Gates	'Nati	62.8	52.2	11.0	15.1	30.3
Augustus Gilchrist	USF	38.1	52.4	9.3	20.0	54.5
Darryl Bryant	WVU	55.0	42.4	2.7	21.6	56.0

A summer ago Coach Rick Pitino tabbed Terrence Jennings "the key" to Cardinal success in 2010. Though he brought energy to the line-up, Jennings was unable to develop a tandem playing relationship with Samardo Samuels, and found himself behind the more heralded bfc in the rotation. Though Jennings offered efficient scoring and a dominant rebounding presence, especially on the offensive boards, he did not establish much more than a "role" presence on offense. Sam-Sam moved on to the NBA this past June, and ready or not, he has passed the low post baton onto Jennings. Pomeroy's 50% confidence interval suggests Jennings should grow into a "Major Contributor" role this season (in the range of 21%-24% of the possessions/shots), but given the personnel loss, should Jennings blow up, a "Significant Contributor" role, something just north of 25% is possible. As a high-end "Role Player", Jennings has shown he can be very efficient (111.8-116.1); if he can maintain his efficiency level while expanding his role in the offense, he will definitely make an All-Big East Team or two. Then if he is around in the summer of 2011, I will not be able to include him on my Rising Seniors "Watch" List. Kris Joseph is yet another example of how team work was so successful for Syracuse last season. Distribution -- of possessions and shots among the players on the floor -- was atypical for a F1 team, but extremely effective for the Orange. Joseph's Poss% and Shot% put him at the upper edge of "Role Player". Johnson, Rautins and Onuaku have moved on, and given Kris' growth in role and efficiency over the past two seasons, he is on track to become a "Major Contributor" next season. Usage growth has gone hand-in-hand with improvement of efficiency, a good sign for Joseph and Syracuse in 2011.

		Miscellaneous...
Player	Coll	Ast%	DR%	Blk%	Stl%
Kevin Jones	WVU	7.2	13.0	3.1	1.1
Jeff Robinson	Hall	3.4	12.9	2.1	1.4
Terrence Jennings	'Ville	5.8	15.3	10.2	2.5
Kris Joseph	Cuse	10.2	13.7	1.6	2.8
Jordan Theodore	Hall	22.4	6.4	0.9	3.2
Darius Johnson-Odom	MU	17.0	9.2	0.6	1.8
Yancy Gates/td>	'Nati	7.4	15.2	3.7	1.3
Augustus Gilchrist	USF	4.2	14.6	3.4	0.5
Darryl Bryant	WVU	25.2	7.7	0.1	1.8

The log-jam in Marquette's back court going into the 2009-10 season was big enough to convince senior Maurice Acker to forego his spot on the roster and concentrate on completing his studies. With two transfers (one a returning native son), a true, and much heralded, local freshman and second returning senior combo guard, it was easy to see why Ackers thought to stand aside. I had to wonder where a second promising transfer, Darius Johnson-Odom, would fit. Preseason injuries to Cadougan (who later returned to play 12 games at the end of the season) and Johnson-Odom were enough to bring Acker back to the squad where he had a very good senior campaign (ranked #1 in conference for assist-to-turnover ratio and #1 for 3FGM%). A quickly recovered Johnson-Odom completed the accidental back court, becoming a fixture alongside a combination of Acker, Cubillan and/or Buycks. He proved to be a good combo guard, sliding over to the off guard where could find his shot (eFG% -- 56.4%) both inside and outside (ranked #7 in conference for 3 pointers made) when Acker manned the #1, and then over to the lead guard spot when Cubillan or Buycks came in. Johnson-Odom had a respectable (per Ken Pomeroy), though not Top 500 assist rate, suggesting he will move back and forth in the Buzz Williams' back court again this season. Normally I cut off candidates at about the 40% Mins line, but (like Louisville's Terrence Jennings...) Augustus Gilchrist made an good argument for setting that guideline aside. Gus completed his first year in Tampa by showing the Bulls' faithful that he could be a dominant (though inefficient) front court presence when he saw the court. Efficiency, under the right circumstances, could be improved, so 2010 held serious promise for the Bulls and Gilchrist. An early December ankle sprain sidelined him until mid-February. He returned to help the Bulls close out their Big East regular season with a four game winning streak. Many assumed the 6-10 235 pound player would man the low post, but he seems to want to play more on the perimeter than the low blocks. Not a dominant defensive rebounder, Gus has shown he can block a shot when needed and dominate on the offensive boards. Over the past two seasons South Florida fans have seen enough to be excited about Gilchrist's potential. He made significant strides in shot and possession-to-point efficiency. If the big guy can manage to log an entire season with the Tampa school, his expected possession and shot rates this season could well land him in "Major Contributor" role in the Bulls' offense. With Jones departed for the NBA, and a number of new guards coming in to replenish Coach Heath's severely depleted back court, Gilchrist should become an "early and often" offensive option.

What About...?
DePaul's Devin Hill and Jeremiah Kelly were too inefficient with their shots last season, logging eFG%s in the low 40s. Greg Monroe's exit leaves a lot of shots and possessions to divvy up among the remaining (and entering) Hoyas. But Henry Sims, who entered as a freshman with Monroe (and was by some, better regarded), who saw his sophomore minutes diminish relative to his freshman season, would seem to be a poor candidate for a significant portion of those possessions/shots. His possession rate, 16%, may have grown modestly over his freshman rate (14.5), but there is a small probability that more than another 4%-5% will come his way (assuming he gets more minutes). Jason Clark, another Hoya who may potentially benefit (possessions and shots) from Greg Monroe's good fortune, made the "Freshmen Watch" list last August, and did increase his efficiency. But his role, as measured by possessions and shots, did not grow at all. Coach Thompson did not, even with a dominant low post presence like Monroe, experiment much with a rotation that put three under 6-5 guards on the floor at the same time. Lacking Monroe, I have to think Coach Thompson would be even less inclined to give that line-up extended run this season.

Hits and Misses...Last Season's "Rising Juniors"
Jimmy Butler and Austin Freeman drew "All-Big East"-level recognition (an Honorable Mention & 2^nd Team) and so are disqualified from consideration this off season -- remember we are looking for the guys just off the radar (congratulations to both). DePaul's Mac Koshwal declared for the draft again last April, went undrafted, but played for the Pistons in the NBA Summer League. Pitt's Brad Wanamaker, St. John's DJ Kennedy and Syracuse's Rick Jackson saw their efficiency and roles improve over the course of the 2010 season. For Wanamaker and Jackson, the efficiency improvement was good, but the growth in roles was comparatively small. Given Syracuse's relatively even distribution of touches and shots expect to see Jackon's role grow (modestly probably) again this season. Kennedy's role grew considerably, bordering on "Go-to Guy"-level possessions. Yet the rising senior drew no accolades from the conference. So I put him back on the Watch List (Rising Seniors) again this season. Louisville's Preston Knowles saw his role grow (possessions went from 16.9% to 21.9%), but his efficiency diminished (112.9 to 103.2), a more common phenomena than the both move in the same direction. Corey Stokes, Sean Evans and Marshon Brooks saw their roles remain about the same, while their efficiencies either declined (Evans) or increase (Stokes and Brooks). Brooks, like Kennedy, is pulling down near "Go-to Guy"-level possession and shot rates, so (like Kennedy) I put him back on the watch list. Stokes on the other hand drew middling "Role Player"-level possessions and shots in 2010, much as he had in 2009. There is a ceiling in the low 20s, but if he is going much higher, he will have to buck the trend.

Watch Lists by Class

Rising Seniors

Seton Hall - West Virginia -- Home for the Holidays

The Boys Are Back in Town...
A game in Newark, NJ, scheduled the day after Christmas for a team from West Virginia may sound like a hardship. But temper that first impulse, for 6 of West Virginia's 16 rostered players (Da'Sean Butler, Devin Ebanks, Kevin Jones, Darryl Bryant, Danny Jennings and Wellington Smith) a game at the Rock is practically a home game. They played their High School ball in and around New York City, Long Island or New Jersey. This was more like "Home for the Holidays" than "Long Strange Trip". And those 6 made the most of the chance to play in front of family and friends as they collectively shot 25-51 (7-18, 18-33) and 18-23 -- that is 83.6% of the Mountaineers' FGAs (and 81.6% of the team's 3FGAs). The six players accounted for 75 of West Virginia's 90 points (83.3%).

In the first half it did not appear that Seton Hall was getting any rebounds at all. Indeed the splits indicate the Pirates snagged <25% of their misses, but gave VWU 31.6% of their's, better than the D1 average (about 33%). The Pirates' 1st half problems derived from their inability to stop West Virginia from converting shots. Indeed, WVU's eFG% was 50.0%, based on a 50% conversion rate for 2s, and a 33% conversion rate for 3s. Very consistent. Seton Hall implemented a press to exploit WVU's lack of point guard skills on the floor (note that both Mazzulla and Bryant had dings. Though both played & logged about 62.5% of the minutes at the #1, neither was particularly effective offensively & even less so defensively). The Mountaineers had a 1st half turnover rate of 15.8, when combined with their 2nd half turnover rate (13.8), suggests the Hall's press was ineffective.

Half-time Adjustments
Coach Gonzalez appeared to have solved a few of the Hall's 1st half deficiencies, namely on the boards. But he failed to find a good strategy for the press. But the Hall's conversion efficiency (eFG%) remained flat at 43.1% for both halves. Improvements came from getting to the line and controlling their offensive boards better (up to 37.5%, from 23.1%), and getting to the line more. Converting at the line became very problematic however. The game was lost at the line in fact. While WVU had a free throw conversion rate of 72.7% (24 of 33), the Pirates could muster no better than 48% (16 of 33). Even merely matching WVU's conversion rate would have translated into a win.

Notes and Observations
1. Jeremy Hazell scored a career-high 41 points on 14-33 and 9-12 shooting. His eFG% was a disappointing 48.5% with a 1.06 PPWS, good, but not great numbers. Hazell took 34% of the Hall's possessions (a very large percentage) and over 42% of the squad's shots, when he was on the floor. Both numbers are high for anyone not named Michael Jordan, but Coach Gonzalez seemed to have made peace with the idea that Hazell would consume a lot of the Pirate's possessions and shots this season.
2. Keon Lawrence and Jeff Robinson 2 recently re-instated players, had comparatively quiet games. Lawrence scored no points in 7 minutes of action, while Robinson scored 5 points in 19 minutes.
3. Coach Huggins played his 4 forward (plus a guard) starting lineup for 79.1% of the available minutes (in contrast with Coach Gonzalez's 65.9% usage). The high percentage suggests the game was close (it was), but also lacking point guard level ball handling skills was not a point of vulnerability.
4. "No one in the Big East can score faster than Jeremy Hazell. Everyone knows that..." -- Coach Huggins.

Rising Sophomores -- Ten to Watch

The Big Jump
Common wisdom says the prime-time players (who don't jump to the league after their freshmen seasons...) take the biggest leap in their development during their sophomore season. I am not sure there is a single rule that dictates when a player makes his greatest strides. Some, like Dante Cunningham (Villanova, Class of 2009) and Hilton Armstrong (UConn, Class of 2006), see their roles grow with each season, but take the biggest (it seems) spurt in their senior season. Others make an impact their freshman seasons, but never seem to develop beyond that season (Edgar Sosa? Mike Nardi? Darryl Hill?). Like other "10 to Watch" postings, I am not listing All Big East Freshman Teamers, everyone knows who they are and will be watching/reporting on their every game. These overlooked ten might be on the threshold of a breakout season, or more likely solidify a starting spot on their team's roster. These players have a Big East season under their belts. They survived, put up some good (but not stud) numbers and are looking at opportunities to step into major roles with their teams this coming season.

On Offense...
Player	Team	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTR%
A Gibbs	Pitt	25.9	117.5	18.2	20.8	58.1	1.20	1.9	17.1
K Jones	WVU	48.1	113.6	16.7	19.5	50.3	1.02	10.7	23.7
Jennings	Ville	26.5	111.8	18.0	16.5	59.4	1.17	15.1	51.0
Echenique	RU	70.7	108.6	16.8	15.0	50.8	1.11	12.2	65.9
C Wright	GTown	81.0	107.8	21.9	22.0	53.7	1.15	1.2	41.1
D Dixon	Nati	54.1	104.1	19.2	20.5	45.4	0.98	6.4	33.3
Bryant	WVU	63.7	102.6	21.9	21.3	47.9	1.05	1.6	35.7
J Clark	GTown	45.1	100.3	17.2	16.1	57.0	1.22	7.2	31.3
K Joseph	Cuse	29.2	88.2	16.3	15.5	46.1	0.91	7.0	50.5
Gilchrist	USF	48.5	87.6	27.3	30.4	43.3	0.91	7.7	31.4

Ashton Gibbs and Terrence Jennings did not see the floor much at the start of the season. Gibbs was behind senior pg Levance Fields and sophomore Brad Wanamaker, while Jennings found Samardo Samuels and Earl Clark in front of him. Both worked themselves into the rotation by season's end. Jennings logged about 38% of the minutes at his position during the Big East season, while Gibbs spent July playing lead guard for his coach in the U19 World Championship Tournament in New Zealand, making up ground on the playing time he missed last season. Gibbs gained valuable experience he will be able to use early next season. He will split time and responsibilities with rising junior Brad Wanamaker and red shirt freshman Travon Woodall. Rutgers' Greg Echenique, efficient but under utilized on offense last season, will benefit from a distributor like transfer James Beatty at the point. Having a reliable 2nd and 3rd option on offense will work to All Big East Rookie teammate Mike Rosario's benefit, even if the gunner gets a few less touches. Darryl "Truck" Bryant is on this list even though he is currently suspended. Bryant, arrested twice within a one week period in June for (serious) traffic offenses, was suspended by Coach Bob Huggins, but has continued to live (and workout) in the Morgantown area over the summer. His 102.7 offensive rating is on the right side of 100, combined with possessions and shot percentages (%Poss and %Shot) above 21 suggest he can produce points (via shooting or assists) efficiently. His assist rate (Ast% -- 21.2) was top 400, though undermined by his high turnover rate (TO% -- 22.2) in a typically freshman sort of way. Given a full season that should improve (and help his ORtg, not to mention his team, considerably). Given both he and red shirt junior Joe Mazzulla (suspended in May, pending resolution on an unrelated assault charge), are both listed on West Virginia's latest roster, odds are excellent both will be re-instated before the season, if not by the Fall practice in mid-October.

On Defense...
Player	Team	%Min	DR%	%Ast	TO%	%Blk	%Stls
Ashton Gibbs	Pitt	25.9	5.4	13.7	19.3	0.3	0.8
Kevin Jones	WVU	48.1	18.2	6.7	9.6	3.8	1.9
Terrence Jennings	Ville	26.5	11.6	3.8	16.3	13.7	2.3
Gregory Echenique	RU	70.7	20.6	4.5	16.8	8.1	1.5
Chris Wright	GTown	81.0	9.5	25.1	20.4	0.3	2.1
Dion Dixon	Nati	54.1	9.7	12.5	16.3	0.8	1.4
Darryl Bryant	WVU	63.7	6.7	21.2	22.2	0.1	1.3
Jason Clark	GTown	45.1	10.0	9.0	29.1	1.1	2.2
K Joseph	Cuse	29.2	11.9	6.1	20.2	1.8	3.7
Augustus Gilchrist	USF	48.5	12.9	5.4	16.2	4.2	0.7

At 6-10 and 235 pounds Gus Gilchrist drew a lot of attention last season. With nearly 28% of the possessions and taking (just) over 30% of the shots when he was on the floor, he was taking a "Go-to Guy"-level role in the Bulls offense. But he was not converting possessions into points very efficiently (about .88 points per possession, below the Bulls team .95 ppp). I got the feeling Gilchrist wanted to play more #4 than #5, and with Jarrid Famous, a classic back-to-the-basket type #5 to bolster returning rising senior Alex Sanchez at the #5, Gilchrist may be able to play facing the basket on offense. For a real break through season however, in addition to improving his shot selection (and accuracy) Gilchrist will have to step up his rebounding. Though he had another year of eligibility, DaJuan Summers moved on, handing Hoya wing Jason Clark one of those opportunities to blossom. Georgetown needs rebounding under both baskets -- something Clark did not demonstrate an instinct for last season. Cincinnati's Dion Dixon on the other hand, will face very stiff competition for minutes. With redshirt freshman Cashmire Wright taking the point, All-Big East Teamer Deonta Vaughn will most likely move out to the wing. Between Vaughn and incoming wing Lance Stephenson, Dixon will have to produce early and often to secure a spot in the Bearcat rotation. Kris Josephs' situation at Syracuse bears similarity to both Gibbs/Jennings and Clark/Dixon. Like Gibbs/Jennings Joseph did not draw a lot of minutes in 2009, but the Orange lost 3 starters in the off season, virtually guaranteeing that Joseph will draw an opportunity to compete for a larger role with the team. But Joseph will get competition from transfer Wesley Johnson, red shirt freshman Mookie Jones and true freshman James Southerland.


And Then There's...
The Big East All Freshmen Team, Yancy Gates, Kemba Walker, Greg Monroe, Samardo Samuels, Mike Rosario and Devin Ebanks, will no doubt have great seasons. If all goes as anticipated, a few (Greg Monroe? Devin Ebanks?) will likely put in for the NBA draft next June.

DePaul's Jeremiah Kelly will draw more duty at the point this season, now that senior Jabari Currie has moved on. Currie was hobbled with turnover problems for his entire career, that Kelly could not move past him last season was disappointing. When Malik Boothe was sidelined with injuries last season Quincy Roberts was one of several freshmen who stepped into the breech. Less than stellar shooting was further undermined by turnovers. This season Roberts will compete with 2 more freshmen and a transfer for playing time (not to mention 3 returning players) in the back court/wing. I have closed an eye to playing time for a handful of rising sophomores, but Louisville's Jared Swopshire & George Goode, Georgetown's Henry Sims and Pitt's Nasir Robinson have too little playing time to project comfortably. Sims has about 20+% PT at his spot, with Swopshire, Goode and Robinson far closer to 10% than 20%. Of the 3 Robinson most likely has the clearest path to a secure spot in his team's rotation, but how successful he will become is uncertain (from the numbers). His best path to the Panther rotation is rebounding. Pittsburgh finds itself in the same boat as Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette and Villanova, it's best rebounders have moved on and the staff will give high marks to the players who grab the loose balls.

Many thanks for Ken Pomeroy. His website is an invaluable source for individual possession-based stats.