On Second Thought -- Plotting Trendlines for Big East Teams (pt 2)

Through the Middle Section of the Conference
While there is something appealing about taking the conference by quartiles -- Big East observers have only another year or two for that approach -- I decided to look at the teams in three parts, taking about five teams with each look. The decision was not random, as the trendlines for teams grouped in this way, highlights a number of common elements...similar records & progressions. As in "Second Thoughts: Part 1" I have highlighted those (six this time...) teams discussed in this post in the year-end conference standings:

	W	L	Pct.
Pittsburgh	15	3	0.833
Notre Dame	14	4	0.776
Syracuse	12	6	0.667
Louisville	12	6	0.667
St. John's	12	6	0.667
Cincinnati	11	7	0.611
West Virginia	11	7	0.611
Georgetown	10	8	0.556
Connecticut	9	9	0.500
Villanova	9	9	0.500
Marquette	9	9	0.500
Seton Hall	7	11	0.389
Rutgers	5	13	0.278
Providence	4	14	0.222
South Florida	3	15	0.167
Cincinnati	1	17	0.056

(T6 #6) Cincinnati

Multiple intersecting trendlines suggest...

Third order polynomial trendlines tend to resist wild gyrations, which makes them a good tool for identifying "long term" trends. Cincinnati's season, per the trendline, suggests a mild slump around games 5 through 12, and indeed the Bearcats' record through that seven game stretch was 3-4 (they finished 11-7 and secured the #6 seed in the BET). Coach Mick Cronin, possibly the conference's strongest hot seat candidate going into the season, secured his tenure (at least in the near term) with a team performance that exceeded preseason expectations. An especially strong 5-1 finish of the conference regular season featured wins over Louisville, Marquette and twice over Georgetown, NCAA invitees all. The lone loss through that run was Connecticut, the team which also eliminated Cincinnati in the second round of the NCAA Tournament (and went on to win the National Championship).

(T9 #9) Connecticut

Ahhh, A double helix, perhaps?

The Huskies offer one of the more interesting trendlines from the conference season. Like many teams that finished in this middle third of the conference. Connecticut's trendlines suggest a team that was "evolving" as the season progressed. What sets Connecticut's trendlines apart from the usual in season slump is the suggestion the source of the "pause" was defense. Note the adjusted offensive trendline shows no signs of regressing through the season. The Huskies were one of two squads whose offense (adjusted for the competition) appeared to improve (no regression) over the course of the season.

(8 #8) Georgetown

A curved double intersection like Cincinnati's, but...

The adjusted chart suggests Coach John Thompson's squad peaked around the time of the Villanova game (game 9 on the chart), and then declined through the end of the season. The Hoyas finishd the 2011 season on a four game losing streak that began with the last two games of the conference season and continued through the Wednesday round in the Big East Tournament, culminating with their second consecutive first round of the NCAA Tournament. Junior guard Chris Wright missed three of the games through that stretch, but the chart suggests the offense was in full decline well before Wright missed games. Note the second intersection in the chart, around game 14, was an eight point loss (70-78) to Connecticut. The Huskies also eliminated the Hoyas in New York City exactly three weeks later.

(T9 #11) Marquette

Slump & recovery...

The adjusted chart suggests a decline/slump through much of the season, as Coach Buzz Williams' program bottomed out around the Georgetown game (game #12), then began a slow rebound through the end of the regular season. The Golden Eagles did finish the regular season on a two game losing streak, one that may well have put their NCAA bid on a bubble going into New York City. Marquette rebounded nicely however, running to the Sweet Sixteen where they fell, 81-63, to North Carolina.

(T9 #10) Villanova

The season-long slump?

The season-long decline of the Wildcats' offensive efficiency is clearer in the adjusted efficiency chart. Many of my post game analysis pointed to defensive lapses (also indicated in the trendlines), but the chart hints strongly the offensive decline was persistent and steady throughout the conference season. Stepping back a bit, the decline, from just under 120 (118?) down to about 101, was dramatic for an 18 game stretch. Unlike other teams in this group, there was no rebound...

(T6 #7) West Virginia

No double intersection here either

The trendlines suggest that West Virginia's offensive slump was well timed. The Mountaineers' record from games three through nine was 6-1, with an eye popping 89.9 adjusted defensive efficiency that masked a 10% decline in offensive efficiency during that time period. Coach Bob Huggins' squad finished the conference regular season with an 11-7 conference record (tied for #6 with Cincinnati, earning the 'Eers a #7 seed for the Big East Tournament). West Virginia earned a #5 seed to the NCAA Tournament and lost in the second round to Final Four-bound Kentucky.

2010-11 Preview -- Cincinnati Bearcats

Too Busy for the Details?
Going into the 2010 season, the Bearcats' motto could well have been "The Future is Now!". A senior volume scorer, an impact (volume scoring) freshman #3 and a low post offensive rebounding machine (highly efficient put-back scorer) would start with a deep pool from which to draw a variety of mix-and-match looks for the rotation. The 'Nati Nation had good reason to anticipate an ascension to the upper division (if not the elite level) of the Big East and a long-anticipated return to the Division 1 conversation. While Coach Cronin has upped the program's win total in each of his first four seasons, 2010 fell short of expectations, and the coach has to be nervous as he enters his fifth season. The Bearcats have a shallower squad with many of the same problems and challenges that plagued them in the 2007, 2008 and 2009 seasons -- a glaring lack of shot and scoring efficiency. Prognosis -- A 3rd quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2011	2010	2009
%Min	52.8	77.9	45.5
%Pts	50.4	77.5	51.3
%FGM	51.2	78.0	49.8
%3FGM	44.5	79.8	69.7
%OReb	62.3	61.5	36.4
%DReb	52.5	71.3	35.5
%TReb	55.9	67.6	35.8

Coach Cronin's approach to offense shows the influence of his former mentor, Coach Bob Huggins, currently coaching at West Virginia. Coach Cronin's approach is similar to what we saw with West Virginia last season -- a long front court whose offense relies on put-backs from misses on the perimeter and lane. The returning numbers suggest a rebuilding year at what for Coach Cronin at least, has to be a most inconvenient time (as if there is ever a convenient time to rebuild...). The good news is that most of that rebounding will be back, but as the stats below suggest, there is only Yancy Gates in the front court to finish (when he is in the game) the possession.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2009-10		2008-09		2007-08
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Big East ORtg	100.4	12	104.6	11	98.1	14
Big East eFG%	48.2	10	48.9	10	98.1	14
Big East OR%	36.1	T5	35.6	6	35.2	4
Big East DR%	69.7	1	65.6	10	69.1	4

The roster and rankings within the conference provide insight to Coach Cronin's recruiting and game strategy. Rebounding and low post control are a high priority, playmaking apparently is a lower priority, and that appears to feed Cincinnati's inability to score consistently and efficiently. Offensive workhorses Deonta Vaughn, Yancy Gates and Lance Stephenson for example, tend to be volume scorers -- they require a lot of shots/touches to put points on the board. The Bearcats' more efficient scorers, recently re-instated Rashad Bishop and (graduated in 2009) Mike Williams tend to see fewer touches and scoring opportunities. A good playmaking point guard who can distribute would be a blessing to the offense.

	For the Record...
	2009-10			2008-09			2007-08
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	19	16	0.543	18	14	0.563	13	19	0.406
Big East	7	11	0.389	8	10	0.444	8	10	0.444
Post Season?	NIT Rnd #2			BET Rnd #1			CBI Rnd #1

2010 yielded the best post season bid and deepest run (two games) of the Cronin Era, but many expected a four letter tournament bid, a possibly that all but died when Cincinnati stumbled to a 2-7 Big East regular season finish. The mini-run to the Big East Tournament quarterfinals was little more than a teaser for the fans. The issue was virtually settled when 'Nati dropped a four point overtime home decision to Marquette on February 21.

The Bearcats' Nucleus
As Coach Cronin sifts through the roster during the off season, his biggest task will be to find scorers (note the plural), efficient ones. Yancy Gates is a start, but the bfc has to stay in the game (literally and figuratively) and remember he has teammates.

On Offense
Player	Min%	ORtg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
Y Gates	62.8	106.9	21.3	22.7	52.2	11.0	1.07	30.3
C Wright	44.2	88.6	21.1	19.6	40.6	3.4	0.87	35.6
Dion Dixon	36.8	96.4	19.6	20.1	39.6	6.0	0.90	33.8
I Thomas	36.0	94.0	19.9	18.8	41.1	11.1	0.89	58.9
L Davis	30.7	82.1	17.5	20.0	36.7	4.3	0.87	10.2
J Parker	24.1	111.2	17.4	16.4	55.5	6.8	1.14	40.2
D Wilks	23.9	105.2	18.4	19.7	56.1	10.5	1.11	13.3

Yancy Gates excepted, the table above illustrates the Bearcat dilemna. The returners were largely third or fourth options on offense last season. Those (again Gates excepted) who did shoot (Davis & Dixon) did not convert efficiently enough to become offensive threats, and those who showed promise (Wilks and Parker) did not see the floor much. The door is open for rising sophomore Jaquon Parker, but can he pair with Gates and convert (when the attention is on him...) enough to carry the team? Dixon, Davis and Wilkes are far enough along in their collegiate careers for the fans to know a breakout-type season is not realistic (but not impossibie...that's what makes them fans). Significant growth will come from Parker and/or Ibrahima Thomas, an enigma who transferred from Oklahoma State after frustrating Travis Ford for half a season. Or a newcomer.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Yancy Gates	62.8	15.2	7.4	15.1	3.7	1.3
Cashmere Wright	44.2	8.8	20.9	23.4	0.0	2.4
Dion Dixon	36.8	8.5	13.2	17.5	0.4	1.8
Ibrahima Thomas	36.0	22.4	2.6	14.7	4.1	1.1
Larry Davis	30.7	7.3	9.7	21.9	0.3	1.6
Jaquon Parker	24.1	17.2	14.7	19.0	0.3	1.6
Darnell Wilks	23.9	11.3	9.1	21.0	3.6	1.2

The defensive rebounding (DR%) confirms that a low post presence is still in place -- the Bearcats will get their share of rebounds. Crossing the assist rate (Ast%) with the possession and shot rates (Poss% and Shot% above) suggests the squad is loaded with Indians, but where are the chiefs? Where will the shots and scoring (farther out than five feet...) come from? Filling out the returnees on roster, Anthony McClain, Eddie Tyree, Alex Eppensteiner, along with red shirt Sean Kilpatrick will provide depth.

Significant Additions
The Bearcats will add to their reputation as a front court power this season by adding a power forward, 6-8 210 pound #4 Justin Jackson and 6-10 225 pound Kelvin Gaines to the roster. Both are from Arlington Country Day School in Florida. Scout, Inc rates Jackson (the better regarded of the two) #86 overall in the class and #22 among power forwards in the class, citing his motivation as a strong asset. If rebounding and inside play were a weakness for Cincinnati, these two would be great additions. Both will no doubt get long looks on the Bearcats' Labor Day weekend tour of Canada.

Coach Cronin reunited with a former assistant and former Rutgers Assistant Darrin Savino, when he added the old hand to his staff in July. Savino, who was the lead recruiter for Rutgers Head Coach Fred Hill during Hill's four year tenure, helped Hill assemble a series of talented entering classes for the Scarlet Knights, will help Cronin recruit in metropolitan New York and throughout the country.

Explode If...
1. Cashmere Wright grows into the lead guard job this season and proves to be a much more effective floor general and much better scorer than he was last season. Wright will have to shoot better, dish more assists and cut down (a lot) on the turnovers. Modest mprovement would not surprise, freshmen who record offensive ratings in the high 80s for example, is more common than one might imagine. For the Bearcats to make a big jump in the conference however, Wright would have to improve a lot.
2. Ibrahima Thomas decides he really wants to play basketball, and be very, very mean when he is on the floor. Thomas has shown skill and flashes of skilled play. But little aggression or instinct for scoring.
3. Parker, Dixon and Davis (and Kilpatrick?) form a efficient and prolific rotation for the off guard and wing forward spots. Wilkes and maybe Jackson will fill the #4 spot in the rotation, but they will most likely need relief.

Implode If...
1. The staff cannot find/develop an effective leader who can direct the offense. Everyone who prepares for the Bearcats knows Gates will be the go-to guy on offense. If the squad cannot find another two players who can step up, take the ball and make a play, the game plan versus Cincinnati will be to shut down Gates, block off the low post passing lanes and wait for him to lose his temper and foul (and head to the bench).
2. Going into last season more than a few analysts (ahhh, that includes me) wondered if a senior and a heralded freshman could develop an effective attack without stepping on each other's toes. The answer for the most part was yes. There are egos on this team too. Will Gates be able to share the limelight with Thomas or Parker or a freshman like Jackson? If the chemistry is not right, there are not a lot of alternatives.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
The cupcake count for Cincinnati's out of conference (OOC) schedule is pretty high, hopefully Coach Cronin will use it to work out any kinks the staff discovered/uncovered during their Labor Day Tour of Canada (links to my possession-based, post game analysis for the first two games are in the Further Readings Section of this post). The two biggest challenges should be Dayton at a semi-home venue (US Bank Arena in Cincinnati) on November 27 and Oklahoma at the a-not-really-neutral Ford Center in Oklahoma City on December 18. The Flyers should be in the hunt for the A-10 title this season, though they have shown a tendency to struggle away from the UD Arena. Oklahoma, ripped by turmoil in the 2010 campaign managed to finish five games under 0.500. The Sooners' prospects this season are even worse, as most project them to finish in the Big 12's lower division, closer to the bottom than the mid-point. A 12-0 record through December 23 would have to be a big confidence builder going into the Big East season. Cincinnati's last OOC opponent, Xavier, is the filling in a hard early conference season sandwich. The Cross Town Shootout (scheduled for Fifth Third this season) will take place between a home game with Seton Hall and a road game at Villanova. The Hall, like Cincinnati, looks to this season to gain some upward mobility in the conference, so this will be an early season test for both programs. The winner gains an important tie-breaker advantage (should it come to that) for seeding in the Big East Tournament. 3-0 through that stretch is unrealistic, even 2-1 would be another confidence builder for the program. But 1-2 or 0-3 is more probable. The five games that run from the middle of January to the end of the month will set the tone for the Bearcats' prospects in conference. The Bearcats take a three game road trip with stops at Syracuse, Notre Dame and St. John's before returning home to face Rutgers and West Virginia. West Virginia and Syracuse are pegged as First Quartile teams, so taking either (especially Syracuse on the road) is a stretch. Rutgers however, generally thought to be a Fourth Quartile team should be beatable. The last two, Notre Dame and St. John's, are (like the Bearcats) slated to finish somewhere in the middle of the conference, and Cincinnati has to win one, preferably both, to establish it's place in the pecking order. West Virginia on 1/29 is the nineth game in the conference schedule. If 'Nati has a 5-4 or better record at that point, Coach Cronin would have every reason to be optimistic for the season. 0-9 is very unlikely. A 3-6 record, a distinct possibility, would make for a steep hill to climb in the last half of the conference schedule.

Further Reading
Cincinnati - McGill post game analysis.
Cincinnati - Carleton post game analysis.

Departures -- Cincinnati Thru Georgetown

The Clearing Fog...Part 1 of 4
I do not understand how, with the air thick with rumors (and news) of coaching changes, underclassmen putting in for the NBA draft or of transferring, analysts can make a projection of next season's Top 25. Even if the roster is inert -- staff and players stay in place and no new faces in the rotation for next season -- player development and life altering events remain the variables in the team dynamics.

The deadline has passed for pulling out of the NBA draft, and (for now) all head coaching positions in the Big East are staffed. A pause, to enumerate those departed and consider the changes, may in order. I have listed the losses to each team (seniors and NBA draft hopefuls, academic casualties and late-breaking coaching turnovers may affect each team's standing.

Cincinnati

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Lance Stephenson	FR	F	Draft-In
Steve Toyloy	SR	C	Grad
Deonta Vaughn	SR	G	Grad

Vaughn and Toyloy were known, but the loss of Stephenson, especially after he announced he would return for his sophomore year, was surprising and a frankly disappointing. Vaughn was a scoring point guard who tended to be more efficient when someone else (Jamal Warren for example) ran the point and let him come off screens. Cashmire Wright should get a long look at the #1, but someone (or a combination of someones) will have to supply the instant offense that Vaughn and Stephenson did last season. Coach Mick Cronin finished his fourth season and touts a 61-68 (0.473) record, with two trips to the (non-NCAA) post season to show for his tenure. Any in the Bearcat Nation looking for a speedy bounce back from the aftermath of Huggins/Kennedy have to be disappointed now.

Connecticut

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Jerome Dyson	SR	G	Grad
Gavin Edwards	SR	F/C	Grad
Alex Hornat	SR	F	Grad
Jonathan Mandeldove	SR	C	Grad
Stanley Robinson	SR	F	Grad

The first time in three (off) seasons the program has not had an early entry into the NBA draft...a good sign. The second time in the past four seasons the Huskies have not made the NCAAs either...a bad sign. The program is under investigation over the Nate Miles recruitment. The specifics, though undisclosed, have warranted the (additional) expense of a Kansas City law firm that specializes in NCAA-related offenses, retained to represent the program as they work to answer the charges. The fees, according published reports, will exceed $300,000. Coach Calhoun, who has missed games in each of the last three seasons, has recently signed a new contract that promises to keep him in Storrs through the 2014 season. Though he will be 73 in that contract's last year, the new contract was welcomed as a sign to potential recruits, that the long-time coach expects to continue. Whispers from the staff suggest the senior losses are addition by subtraction, and Coach Calhoun raved about the incoming class, generally regarded as second in the conference to Syracuse's, at a recent press conference.

DePaul

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Mac Koshwal	JR	F/C	Draft-In
Will Walker	SR	G	Grad

Walker and Koshwal were the team's most reliable/prolific scorers. The Demons come through a tumultuous season, one that saw five year head Coach Jerry Wainwright fired in December, and the interim coach, Terry Webster, not retained when Clemson Head Coach Oliver Purnell, took over in early April. Reaction to Oliver's hire and Webster's termination was (at best...) very mixed, with some area Public League coaches appreciative of early telephone contact, and AAU coaches unhappy about Webster's fate. Purnell's offense system is very different from Wainwright's, hopefully DePaul's administration and fan-base are not expecting a quick recovery.

Georgetown

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Greg Monroe	SO	C	Draft-In

The Hoyas have no graduating seniors and lose Greg Monroe to the NBA draft. Coach Thompson signed a contract extension last season, and though Georgetown took an unexpected quick exit from the NCAAs (97-83 first round loss to #14 seed Ohio University), continues to have the confidence of the administration and fans. The Hoyas are penciled into a few preseason Top 25s and a watch list or two.

Cincinnati Post Game: Road Games

Fifth Third
The Cincinnati home court has been kind to Villanova since the Bearcats joined the Big East. The Wildcats are 2-1 in conference games since 2006. Those tempted to lay this at (Cincinnati Coach) Mick Cronin's feet should think again. Villanova's first win came against interrem coach Andy Kennedy. The 'Cats are 2-1 versus Cronin, but consider the trainwreck the former Murray State had to clean up.

The Official website has an AP wire story, a few post game notes and the box score. The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Cincinnati
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	29.8	38.5	68.3
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	103.9	119.6	112.7		103.9	109.2	106.9
eFG%	52.1	67.5	59.1		43.5	45.7	44.7
TORate	20.1	15.6	17.6		16.8	10.4	13.2
OR%	42.9	0.0	25.0		41.2	36.4	38.5
FTA/FGA	41.7	125.0	79.5		12.9	48.6	31.8
FTM/FGA	25.0	95.0	56.8		12.9	28.6	21.2
ARate	50.0	81.8	66.7		41.7	50.0	46.2
Blk%	4.2	5.0	4.5		0.0	8.6	4.5
Stl%	17.4	7.9	12.0		9.7	5.1	7.1
PPWS	1.08	1.44	1.27		0.94	0.98	0.96
2FG%	38.5	60.0	47.8		50.0	55.6	52.8
3FG%	45.5	50.0	47.6		23.1	23.5	23.3
FT%	60.0	76.0	71.4		100.0	58.8	66.7
%2FG	32.3	26.1	28.6		58.1	47.6	52.1
%3FG	48.4	32.6	39.0		29.0	28.6	28.8
%FT	19.4	41.3	32.5		12.9	23.8	19.2

Half-time Adjustments
At (roughly) 30 possessions apiece, the first half looked a little like the first half at Syracuse...without the defensive meltdown. The second half pace, 38.5 (call it 39), was closer to Pomeroy's predicted pace of 72. Tied at 31, each team arrived at that common score by very different routes, as illustrated nicely by the table above. The Wildcats hit their shots (especially from the outside, which, at 48.4%, accounted for nearly half of their points), secured rebounds and got to the line. They also turned the ball over too much. The Bearcats did not shoot particularly well, but did rebound their misses and did not turn over the ball. Lack of defensive board presence was unusual in that both team suffered that deficiency in the first half. Cincinnati corrected (on both boards) in the second half, Villanova did not.

Notes & Observations
1. Although Reynolds came on in the second half, he stepped back overall, as the focal point of the offense. The staff matched big-for-big, as Juniors Pena and Stokes stepped into the dominant offensive roles when they were on the court. Tone took 24.8% of the available shots, while Stokes launched 32.7% of the shots when he played. Each played just under 66% of the available minutes at their positions, enough time to establish an offensive presence. Pena was prolific in his shot, but struggled a bit from the field, hitting on 42.9%, but Stokes was a bomber, hitting three of six from beyond the arc and finishing twice around the basket for an eFG% of 72.2%, very good for the number of shots he took. Reynolds, Fisher and Yarou blitzed the Bearcats as secondary scoring options. Each posted an eFG% of better than 70.0% while taking between 17.3% (Fisher) and 18.8% (Reynolds) of the available shots when they were on the floor. A solid offensive performance coming from all five of those players. The balance of the rotation had shooting success ranging from none (Armwood, Cheek & Wayns...literally none, zero) to great (Redding posted an 80.0% eFG% taking 13% of the shots). Overall the offensive production was very balanced, with six players scoring 10 or more points (and none scoring more than 17).
2. Mouphtaou Yarou started his second consecutive game, while logging more than 20 minutes for the third consecutive game. He has averaged 9 points, 5.3 rebounds and 2 blocks per game over the three games. The staff appears to be getting him ready for a larger role.
3. The starting lineup for Cincinnati and Syracuse included Pena, Reynolds, Fisher, Redding and Yarou. This contingent logged 67% of the playing time. The amount of time allocated to the starters has remained in the mid-60s through much of the season (both OOC and Big East), though it appears to fluctuate slightly based on fouls (not really a problem with Cincinnati) and sooring margins. The rotation totaled 10 players, with eight logging 10 or more minutes.
4. For the fifth game running Corey Stokes has put the ball on the deck and driven to the basket at least once. Known as a catch-and-shoot (with a not very strong handle) perimeter player when he first came to the Mainline, Stokes has developed the knack for recognizing when to shoot and when to drive. He caught a nice entry pass in the low post and finished against the Bearcats, a move nowhere in his skill set two seasons ago.
5. Rebounding was a concern going into the season, but by late January it appeared the Wildcats had the matter under control. If the last seven games are an indication, the situation may be less secure than it appeared in January. The Wildcats have held their opponent to less than 32% of their misses only twice over the last seven games, compiling a 4-3 record during that span. They have failed to corral 33% or more of their own misses twice over those same seven games. This may be one reason Yarou is seeing more playing time now, as the freshman has snagged 21 rebounds over that period.
6. The Wildcats are 6-3 in Big East road games this season.

Ref Notes
John Cahill, Bryan Kersey and (gasp!) Michael Stephens worked the game, whistling the teams for a combined 47 fouls, a bit higher than the Wildcats' average for the season. This was the fourth Villanova game this season in which Micheal Stephens refereed and a technical was assessed. This time the "T"s went to two players, Antonio Pena and Yancy Gates, instead of the bench. The frequency of fouls and number of free throws were not outside of the "normal" range (high or low) for Villanova away games.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: MSG Double Header

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY - St.John’s broke into the Big East win column with a 52-50 victory over Cincinnati at Madison Square Garden. In the nightcap of the doubleheader, Dayton defeated Fordham 74-58 in an Atlantic Ten matchup.

The efficiency and factors in a 63 possession game.

	Off		FTA
	Eff	eFG%	FGA	OReb%	TO%
Cincinnati	79	42	21	44	33
St.John’s	83	39	21	29	19

Cincinnati is athletic but did not look to run, press and do anything similar to push the pace. They are a team with good size that is comfortable in the half court setting. The Bearcats’ size allowed them to enjoy a note worthy rebounding edge on the offensive glass. They had a 42-30 overall margin in the rebounding department. They also had a 34-24 scoring advantage in points in the paint.

St.John’s capitalized on turnovers. They forced the opposition into a high TO rate (21 overall) and on the evening outscored Cincinnati 20-10 on points off turnovers. Neither team shot very well but St.John’s did hit five three pointers (5 of 19 for 26%) while Cincinnati was a goose egg, 0 for 12 on the night.

Decisions.
Cincinnati had a three point lead with under 20 seconds to play. On two straight possessions they threw the ball away. Following those turnovers they fouled a jump shooter both times. Dwight Hardy of St.John’s went to the line both times and converted to make the difference. On Cincinnati’s final possession, down two, they opted for a three point attempt despite not hitting one all night.

Hardy led all scorers with 19 points. Cincinnati was paced by sophomore forward Yancy Gates with 12 points. Lance Stephenson the highly touted freshman from Cincinnati returned home and had a less than spectacular outing, 7 points in 37 minutes.

St.John’s bench had a 39-16 scoring edge, largely due to Hardy’s 19 points. Red Storm is 11-5 (1-3 Big East) while Cincinnati falls to 11-6 (2-3).


"Every time you win at the Garden it’s awesome. Every time you win a Big East game it’s awesome because it’s hard. Very, very hard." - St. John’s coach Norm Roberts



Dayton at Fordham
The second game saw a low 70 pace, Dayton (71) and Fordham (70) possessions.

	Off		FTA
	Eff	eFG%	FGA	OReb%	TO%
Dayton	104	59	10	23	21
Fordham	83	39	35	21	21

With turnover and rebounding rates relatively close the field goal shooting went a long way toward determining overall efficiency in this contest. Dayton actually attempted more threes than Fordham but the Flyers took care of business in the paint. Dayton was 8 of 20 from three (40%) and 22 of 38 (57%) from two point range. Fordham Shot 6 of 17 (35%) beyond the arc and was 11 of 34 (32%) from two point range.

Dayton depth and experience were evident as they not only had a 37-13 edge in bench scoring but ten players played at least 10 minutes. The Flyers have a deep rotation especially at the guard spot.

Fordham was competitive and it was a one possession game with 16 minutes to go. Dayton then went on a run and was never challenged. Again, the product of not just having talent but veteran players as well.

Free throw rate was deceptive. Fordham shot 26 (18 of 26) free throws to Dayton’s 11 (6 of 11) . Again it wasn’t due to Fordham getting inside that much. Count it more in the area of Dayton getting a little sloppy and committing careless fouls with the issue well at hand.

Brenton Butler of Fordham led all scorers with 20 points. Chris Gaston and Alberto Estwick added 10 each. Dayton had three players in double figures led by sophomore forward Luke Fabrizius who came off the bench to score 13 points. Once again the depth factor.

The first minute. Always shot chart every game but after Ken Pom’s article in Basketball Prospectus regarding the first minute, I am starting to break down those initial 60 seconds. In the Dayton- Fordham game the first minute went as follows:

1. Dayton 1st possession - three point field goal by Chris Johnson.
2. Fordham turnover.
3. Dayton fouled on transition layup attempt , both free throws made.
4. Fordham begins possession, minute ends -- Dayton 5, Fordham 0

Lawrence Frank sighting.
Had a chance to meet and talk with the former NJ Nets coach who had a front row seat behind the Cincy and Dayton benches. We discussed officiating and youth basketball. I am a big proponent of having youth teams only press on a limited basis. Let them learn half court and fundamentals first. Frank shares the same opinion and added how too many young players , on defense, are taught to locate the offense with their bodies rather than getting to a space. A very interesting 10 minute chat.

Dayton is 13-3 (2-0 A-10) while Fordham falls to (2-13, 0-3).

“We are getting there. I think we are playing hard even at the end of a game.” - Fordham interim coach Jared Grasso

“It was a great opportunity to play in Madison Square Garden. It’s something we talked about all week long.” - Dayton coach Brian Gregory

Preview 2009-10 -- Cincinnati Bearcats

Too Busy for the Details?
Coach Cronin returns a solid nucleus of players, including combo guard Deonta Vaughn, center Steven Toyloy, bf/c Yancy Gates and wing Rashad Bishop. Red shirt freshman Cashmire Wright should be ready to take over the ball handling responsibilities that will allow Deonta Vaughn to roam and find the open area. To that mix add Top 15 recruit Lance Stephenson out of New York City -- assuming he clears the NCAA Clearing House (among others), and, if the Bearcats can shake off memories of their season-closing 4 game slide, this squad should be ready to make a big (upward) move. Prognosis -- A 2nd quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance
The 3 year table (below) is a great illustration of the effect of JUCOs. A good deal of experience available every other year, but a disquieting underachievement with that experience. The returning minutes this season come less from transferring juniors (or JUCO seniors) who bring a single season of DI experience to the table, but rather sophomores (1 year) and true juniors and seniors (2-3 years of experience).

	Returning...
	2010	2009	2008
%Min	77.9	45.5	74.9
%Pts	77.5	51.3	82.1
%FGM	78.0	49.8	81.4
%3FGM	79.8	69.7	88.2
%OReb	61.5	36.4	74.7
%DReb	71.3	35.5	74.8
%TReb	67.6	35.8	74.8

Returning minutes are among the highest in the conference this season, giving observers and fans a reason to expect a move to the conference's upper division. On the offensive side of the ball everything is pointing up, returning points, field goals made and rebounds all suggest the Bearcats can expect to be even stronger this season. The defense has been a big problem in prior seasons, as Cincinnati has ranked near the bottom in overall defensive performance. Looking at Oliver's four factors, the problem areas have centered on shot defense (eFG%) and allowing opponents to get to the line. For all of their aggression, the Bearcats allowed opponents to take 4 free throw attempts for every 10 field goal attempts. That is uncomfortably close to a 1:2 ratio of FTAs to FGAs. The aggression did not produce many turnovers either. I expect defensive rebounding will be among the best next season, the key for the Bearcats will turn on whether they can step up their field goal defense (in conference...overall did not seem to be much of a problem), defensive rebounding and force turnovers.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2008-09		2007-08		2006-07
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Overall ORtg	107.6	78	104.6	132	103.7	139
Overall DRtg	97.9	104	95.3	72	97.2	98
Big East ORtg	102.9	11	98.1	14	96.1	12
Big East DRtg	110.4	15	103.1	8	106.3	16
Four Factors -- Overall
All Off. eFG%	48.4	197	47.1	275	45.9	292
All Off. TOv%	20.4	179	20.8	172	18.9	58
All Off. OReb%	40.0	10	35.0	89	35.3	95
All Off. FTA/FGA	30.3	311	32.8	258	29.7	310
All Def. eFG%	47.3	88	49.2	134	52.0	252
All Def. TOv%	18.8	268	18.1	307	22.4	91
All Def. OReb%	34.2	237	30.2	64	32.4	111
All Def. FTA/FGA	35.4	150	46.1	321	37.9	198
Four Factors -- Big East
BE Off. eFG%	48.9	10	47.1	12	45.2	15
BE Off. TOv%	18.5	7	20.9	12	20.0	7
BE Off. OReb%	35.6	6	35.2	4	34.4	7
BE Off. FTA/FGA	29.3	12	31.9	15	30.4	12
BE Def. eFG%	51.8	13	48.8	6	55.2	16
BE Def. TOv%	17.1	13	18.4	12	21.0	6
BE Def. OReb%	34.4	10	30.9	4	33.1	6
BE Def. FTA/FGA	40.8	15	48.5	14	30.6	12
Miscellanious
All Gms Cons	24.9	321	19.3	133	21.4	201
All Gms Luck	+.023	78	-.019	193	-.041	260

Losing a slew of JUCOs (and transfers) at the end of the 2008 season took a toll on the team's consistency in 2009 (not to mention the Bearcat's defensive showing in conference). The JUCOs & transfers recruited in the aftermath of the Huggins/Kennedy changeover were replaced last season with freshmen (and a JUCO center named Steven Toyloy), two of whom played significant minutes last season. The two season lifespan of JUCOs and transfers over the past 3 seasons is also reflected in the Bearcats' record...

	For the Record...
	2008-09			2007-08			2006-07
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	18	14	0.563	13	19	0.406	11	19	0.367
Big East	8	10	0.444	8	10	0.444	2	14	0.125
Post Season?	BET/Rnd 1			CBI/Rnd1			No

Had they taken their 1st round game in the BET (versus DePaul), the Bearcats may have worked themselves into a post season tournament (NIT? Most likely another tilt in the CBI) for the second post season running. Very desirable when trying to build a contending team.


The Bearcats' Nucleus
Coach Cronin will no doubt work this group of players for all they can produce offensively. The entire cohort could have used another consistent scorer...

On Offense
Player	Min%	ORtg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTR%
Vaughn	88.5	104.8	24.7	24.1	49.0	1.07	1.9	30.1
Bishop	64.8	96.6	14.8	14.1	45.9	0.93	5.0	17.0
Gates	57.5	103.1	24.6	28.2	48.0	0.99	13.6	27.1
Dixon	54.1	104.1	19.2	20.5	45.4	0.97	6.4	33.3
Davis	53.4	101.3	18.0	21.9	46.6	0.94	4.1	9.6
Toyloy	39.5	98.4	15.5	10.6	59.0	1.06	8.6	79.5

When the shot went up last season, you could bet that either Deonta Vaughn or Yancy Gates (if they are on the floor) was the last to touch it. And that was a problem as the Bearcats could have really used a 3rd (consistent) option. If the Bearcats entered the 2010 season status quo ante, either Dion Dixon or Larry Davis would be good candidates to step into that 3rd (and/or 4th) scoring option. Both, hovering 19+ percent of the possessions and 20+ Shot% last season, hovers at the boundary of "Regular Guy" status in the offense. The key will be shot accuracy, at hitting their shots consistently was a problem for both last season. Stephenson, should he pass muster with the NCAA, will dramatically change that dynamic.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Deonta Vaughn	88.5	10.9	27.3	23.1	0.0	2.3
Rashad Bishop	64.8	12.5	18.3	24.5	1.0	2.7
Yancy Gates	57.5	16.3	4.5	13.7	4.6	1.2
Dion Dixon	54.1	9.7	12.5	16.3	0.8	1.4
Larry Davis	53.4	5.7	14.0	17.2	0.6	1.8
Steve Toyloy	39.5	18.3	8.6	27.8	1.7	0.7

Significant Additions
Ranked #12 in the Class of 2009, 6-5, 225lbs wing Lance Stephenson supplies what could be the missing piece to a Bearcat squad that struggled at times last season. Stephenson, a much heralded stud out of Abraham Lincoln HS on Coney Island, NYC brings confidence and credibility to Coach Cronin's squad. Stephenson will almost certainly play DI ball for a single season. And he will spend that season in Cincinnati. Given the tumult of the past 3 seasons, Cincinnati did not need a lot of replacements this season, so recruits Jaquon Parker, a 6-4 PG out of Suffolk, VA and Sean Kilpatrick, a 6-5 SG out of White Plains, NY (by way of Notre Dame Prep in Massachusetts), will have time to develop. If redshirt freshman Cashmire Wright does not develop as anticipated, Parker may see some playing time. Kilpatrick is an accomplished outside shooter who (I suspect) Cronin anticipated developing to eventually step into (Dion) Dixon and (Larry) Davis' wing spot. The addition of Stephenson should motivate the trio to work harder.

Explode If...
1. Lance Stephenson clears the NCAA (transcrips, finances, etc.) and blends into a team offense that will look for Vaughn 1st and Stephenson 2nd. "Born Ready" joins an established squad that is missing a consistent offensive option. This is not a squad built around him, but rather one he must fit into.
2. Toyloy and Gates cut down on turnovers under the Bearcat basket while and build up their rebounding presence their opponent's basket. Gates will have to learn to defer to Stephenson (and Vaughn) on offense, and wait his turn as the 3rd/4th option.
3. The Bearcat defense gets tougher, but cleaner. Cincinnati ranked near the bottom of the conference in shot defense (2FGAs especially), forcing turnovers and allowing opponents to get to the line. Points will come (one way or the other), but Bearcats have to stop their opponents.


Implode If...
If Stephenson does not play a minute in the Queen City this season, Cincinnati would still post a better record. The squad is experienced with several solid contributors ready to take the next step. With Stephenson the Bearcats can take a big jump...or a big fall. The question is how quickly (and how well) Coach Cronin can get this squad to play together. And play the game his way.

Crucial Runs
In the 3rd week of November the Bearcats will head to Hawaii, to play in the EA Maui Invitational, which will most likely provide them with their toughest tests in the OOC portion of the schedule. Cincinnati drew the Commodores of Vanderbilt in the 1st round, to be followed by either Maryland or host Chaminade. The Commordores, out of the SEC, return most of their minutes from 2009, including those posted by big man AJ Ogilvy, an Aussie who measures 6-10 and weighs in at 260 pounds. Vandy is projected by ESPN's Fran Fraschilla to finish 3rd in the SEC East and will surely be no worse than a bubble team. ESPN identified this matchup as one of the "10 Nonconference Games We Can't Wait To See" for good reason. Depending on the outcome the Bearcats will face Maryland, projected to be an upper tier team in the ACC this season (and Villanova's matchup in the BB&T Classic in December) or DII host Chaminade. 'Nati's 3rd round opponent will come from the pool of Arizona, Colorado, Gonzaga or Wisconsin. The likeliest candidates 'Zona or the Zags. Three solid games would be very encouraging. A 2-1 or better record against the field will bring some good press for the team. The Bearcat's cross-town game with the X-men will be one of those bellweather games in the OOC. Xavier, having lost Coach Sean Miller to Arizona in the off season, will most likely take a step back in 2010, providing Cincinnati with a good chance to beat a higher (lately) profile opponent. The Bearcats will also face traditional rival Miami of Ohio out of the MAC and the Red Hawks' conference mate, Toledo. Other tests include a road game with UAB out of Conference USA. While the Blazers, 22-12 in 2009, returns a fraction of minutes (and even less of the scoring) of that 22-10 team, they still hold the home court advantage. This one may have less to do with beating a fellow bubble team (and choking off the competition) as it does with winning in a hostile environment. How the team handles this test should, along with Maui and the local rivalries, give the Bearcat Nation some indication of how the squad will fare when the curtain rises in the Big East.

The 2+ week (12/30 - 1/16) stretch that opens the Big East regular season will be a good opportunity for the Bearcats to make a statement. They host Connecticut and Notre Dame as bookends to a run that includes road trips to Rutgers, Seton Hall and St. John's interspersed among home games with Pittsburgh and California State at Bakersfield. 7-0 would garner notice around the conference and in the national media, but at minimum if Cincinnati is to fulfill expectations for an upper division conference finish they will have to beat inferior squads (Rutgers, Cal State), even as they exploit the home court advantage against similarly regarded opponents (Pitt and Notre Dame). The east coast road swing through Seton Hall and St. John's should yield some insight on the pecking order for those three teams. Each program's fan-base has expectations for their squad, and should the Bearcats go 2-0 or even 1-1 (with competitive games) in that swing, their fans would have have to feel optimistic about the rest of the season. Cincinnati fans would have to feel good should their team go 5-2 through that stretch (4-2 in conference). The end of the Big East regular season also holds a tough run as the Bearcats journey to Morgantown to face West Virginia, return to Fifth Third to host the Wildcats, then hit DC for season closer with Georgetown. Cincinnati collapsed at the end of the 2009 season, dropping the last 4 games of the regular season, then tacking 1 last loss (BET) to the end of that dreadful run. If Cincinnati is on the bubble, that 3 game run could be a dream-killer.