Fisher Name Cousey Finalist

The Basketball Hall of Fame announced the finalist for the Bob Cousey Award for 2011 earlier this week. Corey Fisher, along with 19 other Division 1 point guards was listed among the finalists. The winner will be announced April 4. Others from the Big East include Scoop Jardine of Syracuse, Kemba Walker of Connecticut and Chris Wright of Georgetown.

Congratulations to Corey
and the other finalists!

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Georgetown at Seton Hall

by Ray Floriani

NEWARK, NJ - Forget another miserable day of snow, ice and slush. These games are what make Winter enjoyable, or at least bearable. Georgetown edged Seton Hall 80-75 in entertainingly competitive Big East meeting at the Prudential Center.

Outside the Rock
post game

Efficiencies for the game:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Georgetown	69	116
Seton Hall	68	110

Both teams opt for a low to mid sixties pace. The tempo was a little faster because of the Hall's transition game, more on that later.

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Georgetown	58	29	40	22
Seton Hall	47	16	42	12

A very good offensive performance (shooting wise) was offset by Georgetown's occasionally sloppy play that resulted in an over the limit TO rate. On the other side the Hall took great care of the ball but was not as strong from the field. The pirates were 2 of 12 from three. In addition they were a subpar 11 of 18 from the charity stripe. That 61% free throw mark was significant.

The Rock from the baseline

A Quick Start
At the half the Hall trailed 38-31. They came out the second half and went on a 21-7 tear over the first 8 minutes to built a seven point lead. The Pirates got out and ran, made a number of shots in transition and by converting, were able to utilize their full court pressure to speed the Hoyas up and force turnovers. Seton Hall coach Kevin Willard naturally was pleased with the 8 minute start but did add that better free throw shooting following that run, could have increased the lead more.

Poise
The home team is on a game altering run. The crowd is ecstatic and you are facing your second conference road game in four days. The time was ripe to fold. Georgetown did not and maintained composure when needed most.

At the Big East media day coach John Thompson III said he is not really involved in tempo-free breakdowns. In a distant way he is. Thompson noted that when Seton Hall was building their lead, each time out, he reminded his club the time left and what they could do. "We know as a team over the given minutes just what we can accomplish in that time," Thompson said. "And there was a lot of time remaining."

Pope Fouled Out.
Herb pope had a solid 16 point 9 rebound effort for the Hall. He fouled out late in the game, a significant juncture, as Georgetown's Julian Wright (11 points 6 rebounds) was defended by a smaller Jeff Robinson.

Freeman
Austin Freeman showed why he was chosen pre-season Big east Player of the Year. The Georgetown senior guard scored a game high 28 points on 10 of 13 shooting. Freeman produced when needed most. "He is a fun player to watch," Willard said of Freeman. "He hit some big shots in the stretch but he is fun to watch the way he moves without the ball." And what he does when it is in his possession.

Final Numbers
Georgetown improved to 14-5 and 3-4 in the Big East. Seton Hall is 8-11 (2-5). Jeff Robinson led the Hall with 15 points. Jordan Theodore had a strong 17 point , 6 assist outing. Jeremy Hazell had 15 points. Hazell shot 5 of 16 from the floor and Willard pointed out his senior guard will need a few weeks to 'get his legs back' following a good two month layoff due to the injury.

Classic Response
With roughly 10 seconds to go the Hall trailed by three and Theodore hit a corner jumper near the Hall bench. It was clearly a two. So much so the officials did not even need a monitor to verify. Willard was asked his thoughts on the shot. "It definitely was a two (pointer)," he said. "If I thought it was a three and the officials called it a two I might have acted like my predecessor," he said jokingly before adding," I'll probably get a phone call in the morning on that one."

John Thompson III, flanked by
(Left to Right) Austin Freeman and Chris Wright
Not pictured Julian Vaughn

greyCat's comments
The first half at 32 possessions, was a more typical pace for the two teams. Seton Hall struggled to a 0.95 points per possession efficiency (0.95 * 100 = 95.1 rating) while Georgetown scored about a 1.17 points per possession (1.167 * 100 = 116.7). Considering their shooting efficiency (66.7% eFG%) the Hoyas should have been up by more than seven points (38-31), but they did not value the ball as a 21.5% turnover rate atests, and, given a paltry 27.3% offensive rebounding rate, were limited to one shot only on many possessions.

With the clock at 4:00 in the second half and the home team with a five point lead, Georgetown began to chew into the lead for the final time. They switched Clark on Jeremy Hazell ("...no one person can guard him...too crafty...too talented..." -- John Thompson) and tightened the defense one more time. Of the last series of possessions for each team...

Team	FGM	FGA	FTM	FTA	Pts.	Poss.	ppp
Georgetown	3	3	9	10	15	8	1.88
Seton Hall	2	7	1	3	5	8	0.63

The Hoyas implemented a "deny Hazell the ball" defense, to the point where, up three pionts with 5 ticks left on the clock, Thompson decided to put Keon Lawrence on the line rather than risk a 3 point attempt by Jeremy Hazell. When debating the risks that a might entail if Lawrence made the first but missed the second, Thompson gave the go ahead "because Julian promised me he would get the rebound".

Corey Fisher Named to 2011 Wooden Award Watch List

The Los Angeles Athletic Club released their official John R. Wooden Award preseason Top 50 Candidates list. The compilation is based on last season's individual performance and the candidates' team records. The LAAC release identifies these 50 as the early frontrunners for the Wooden Award. While several Big Ten "returning candidates" received specific mention, the Big East placed seven on the list, tied for third (with the Big 12) among the conferences (10 from the Big Ten, eight from the ACC). Of interest to Big East fans:

Corey Fisher, Villanova
Austin Freeman, Georgetown
Ashton Gibbs, Pittsburgh
Jeremy Hazell, Seton Hall
Kris Joseph, Syracuse
Brandon Triche, Syracuse
Kemba Walker, Connecticut

Of interest to Big 5 fans:

Lavoy Allen, Temple
Corey Fisher, Villanova

Of interest to A-10 fans:

Lavoy Allen, Temple
Kevin Anderson, Richmond
Chris Wright, Dayton

Congratulations to Corey
& all of the Wooden Award List Nominees!

2010-11 Preview -- Georgetown Hoyas

Too Busy for the Details?
Georgetown may have lost All-Big East First Team forward Greg Monroe, but they return virtually everyone else on the squad that recovered to 10-8 record after 2009's disastrous 7-11 finish. The squad looked very strong through much of January, lost it's focus after thrashing Villanova on February 3, but recovered in March to take the last regular season game and then run to the Big East Tournament Finals where they lost on the last possession to West Virginia. Just when everything seemed to be back on track the Hoyas dropped another head scratcher, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament no less, to Ohio University. The 2011 squad is among the most experienced in the Big East, and should be in a position to learn from last season's ups and downs. If they can control the boards like the teams of 2007 and 2008, they will run through the conference...and the NCAA field.  Prognosis -- A 1st quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2011	2010	2009
%Min	82.2	68.5	43.7
%Pts	77.8	67.7	46.9
%FGM	77.5	70.1	45.4
%3FGM	96.2	46.6	62.1
%OReb	73.1	70.6	32.5
%DReb	65.7	69.4	46.8
%TReb	67.7	69.8	43.0

As dominant a player as Greg Monroe could be on occasion, the gap between returning minutes and returning points (and returning FGMs, etc.) is a pretty modest 4%. For those who wonder, with so many wings and backcourt veterans returning, whether the offense will "migrate" to the perimeter, returning 3FGM% suggests the Hoyas will indeed take their game outside. But that may not be true if Julian Vaughn and freshman Nate Lubick become very productive (and therefore more attractive offensive options).

	According to Pomeroy...
	2009-10		2008-09		2007-08
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
BE O Rtg	109.7	7	101.4	12	104.3	8
BE O eFG%	56.2	1	51.0	7	52.7	3
BE O Reb%	30.0	T14	34.1	9	31.2	13
BE D Rtg	103.5	6	102.9	7	93.1	2
BE D eFG%	49.9	9	49.1	8	42.5	1
BE Opp Reb%	32.9	T4	36.7	12	32.0	6

When the Hoyas went to the Final Four (2007) their Big East conference (only) offensive rating was a super 115.6, the best in conference, while their defensive rating was a good (but not great) 98.6, good for #5. The Hoyas can scrape by with an above (but not by much) average defense, but they cannot do well with an unproductive offense. For the offense to work Georgetown needs efficient shot conversion (eFG%). Offensive rebounding does not hurt (in 2007 they were ranked #1 in the conference), but efficient shot conversion is essential.

	For the Record...
	2009-10			2008-09			2007-08
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	23	11	0.676	16	15	0.516	28	6	0.824
Big East	10	8	0.556	7	11	0.389	15	3	0.833
Post Season?	NCAA Rnd #1			NIT Rnd #1			NCAA Rnd #2

Georgetown has had a bumpy ride since their 2007 Final Four season. That run yielded a few nice recruiting classes. Returning the program to the Elite Eight-level is the next step.

The Hoyas' Nucleus
Coach Thompson can look to a nice distribution of experience and talent this season. The problem is depth among his veterans -- they are good, but the squad is not (and has never been under JT3) a Noah's Ark with two at every position. Thompson should have the luxury of being able to work the large freshmen class into the mix and give them time to learn his system.

On Offense
Player	Min%	ORtg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
Chris Wright	87.8	111.7	23.2	24.4	52.6	2.1	1.14	35.7
Jason Clark	83.6	111.3	16.0	16.8	60.6	4.6	1.25	24.3
Austin Freeman	83.5	119.8	21.5	25.3	60.2	3.7	1.27	25.3
Julian Vaughn	56.6	104.3	19.3	17.9	58.4	9.9	1.17	34.2
Hollis Thompson	48.8	111.0	13.2	13.8	56.6	5.3	1.15	32.0
Jerrelle Benimon	25.8	83.1	11.1	7.0	40.9	7.8	1.06	63.6
Henry Sims	14.0	83.8	16.0	10.3	50.0	7.2	0.95	88.5

The nucleus of this team, for better or worse, will be Freeman, Wright, Vaughn and Jason Clark. Hollis Thompson should have a good year and those five, along with Jerrelle Benimon (who should also improve over his freshman season efficiency numbers and see more playing time) will see the floor far more than any of the freshmen...if all goes well.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Chris Wright	87.8	8.0	22.6	16.5	0.8	2.5
Jason Clark	83.6	9.5	10.5	21.9	0.6	2.6
Austin Freeman	83.5	8.8	14.4	15.3	0.7	1.6
Julian Vaughn	56.6	13.8	12.1	23.6	7.0	0.8
Hollis Thompson	48.8	9.4	8.5	17.7	2.3	2.8
Jerrelle Benimon	25.8	12.5	5.4	35.1	3.1	1.2
Henry Sims	14.0	17.0	6.2	33.3	6.9	0.9

The key stat is Assist Rate (Ast%)...Chris Wright has a 22.6 rate and will have to maintain it this season. But that is not enough. When the low post and/or the wing players are shoing nearly as many assists as the pg, the GTown faithful know the offense is getting good ball movement and the points should follow easily.

Significant Additions
Coach Thomspon brings in a recruiting class that ranks in the top 3 for the conference. The brightest star in the group is Nate Lubick, a 6-9, 225 pound #4 out of Southborough, Massachusetts. Lubick is ranked #12 at the power forward position, and #48 overall by Scout, Inc. According to Scout, Lubick has a large repetoire of low post moves which when combined with jumpers that he can take off of both ball and down screens, suggest he has the kind of skill set that will fit well with Georgetown's variation on the Princeton Offense. 6-2, 175 pound point guard Markel Starks is, ranked at #75 (by Scout), the second Top 100 player in the class. He should get a good year as Chris Wright's understudy. Moses Abraham, a 6-9, 240 pound center and Aaron Bowen, who at 6-5 and 185 pounds, is something of a Hollis Thomspon-type wing player. Abraham is a long range project who may, if he shows progress, consign Henry Sims to a deep spot on the bench.

Explode If...
1. The Hoyas play as a team. For a change. Georgetown has some excellent talent, and when that talent played to their level, even if they did not play as a team, the Hoyas could win, but when the talent did not play well, the team failed. Early season "head scratching" losses happen when players are learning their roles within Coach Thompson's offensive (and defensive) structure. Late season flameouts occur when players are tired of playing with each other. This team should have fewer stress points in the lineup, and ought to enjoy playing together more than Hoya teams of the past two seasons. The team has had great parts, but the whole has not greater than the sum of those parts.
2. Either Jason Clark or Julian Vaughn has a breakout season. Clark's sophomore possession and shot rate improved marginally over the numbers he posted his freshman season, even as his playing time increased dramatically and his (offensive) efficiency improved. He needs to maintain or continue to improve his efficiency even as he takes a larger role in the Hoya offense. The ceiling (about 95% confidence) is around 24%, a "Significant Contributor" to borrow Pomeroy's label. To break out, Clark would have to push beyond that ceiling, into the 25% or 26% range. Vaughn, a Florida transfer in 2009 who received a waiver to play immediately (in the 2009 season), has improved his possession and shot rates, even as his playing time even as his efficiency improved over the past two seasons. The Georgetown system works best when the Hoyas have the kind of bfc who can provide a low post presence and dominate the offensive boards. Vaughn, whose offensive ceiling (95% confidence) is borderline "Major Contributor" (Pomeroy's label again) may be the more promising prospect given team needs.
3. Both Clark and Vaughn play to their 95% confidence ceiling. Again, team play.

Implode If...
1. Injuries take any of Freeman, Wright, Clark or Vaughn out of the line-up for an extended period of time. The Hoyas are not deep, even with the entering class. The staff is not, beyond Lubick, looking for a missing piece among the rookies. Should Vaughn (or Sims?!) emerge as a low post force, Lubick's impact may be smaller than anticipated.
2. Freeman and Wright each have terrible seasons. The two wings need to be efficient to draw attention and defense out to the perimeter. If the defense collapses into the paint, Vaughn and Lubick will have no room to manuever, nor rebound.
3. Chemistry seemed to be a problem in 2009, and proved to be a huge drag on the squad. The program, whose offense requires a lot of work as a unit, may be more sensitive to the dynamic of a larger recruiting class that requires the team mix different personalties and playing styles while learning to work together.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
The Hoyas always seem to have a "Huh!?" game or two early in the season, and their opener at Old Dominion may be a prime candidate. A road trip to Charleston for the Classic (and a matchup with either Charlotte or NCSU) followed by another road game in not-really-neutral Kansas City, Missouri (to face the Missouri Tigers) closes out November. An early December road game at Temple, an A-10 Tournament Champion and NCAA invitee two seasons running should be the Hoyas best early test. Emerge unbeaten from that schedule, and Georgetown will have a nice spot in the AP Top 10 going into the Big East season.

Georgetown takes a trip to St. John's and then returns home to face West Virginia and Pittsburgh back-to-back in early January, in what might be the hardest three game set the Hoyas will have in the regular season. If Georgetown is 5-0 in conference play on 1/13, they should have the momentum to go up to Villanova near the end of January undefeated in conference play. A pair of three game sets at the back end of the season may be the make-or-break for Georgetown. The first (and greater challenge) begins with the road game with the Orange on 2/9 that could easily be featured during ESPN's Rivalry Week. The Hoyas return home to host the Golden Eagles, and take to the road for a game in Storrs, Connecticut. 2-1 may be likely, but 3-0 would confirm the Hoyas are back. If Cincinnati is hot this season, Georgetown's two games in just over two weeks could prove to be a curse. The Syracuse game (in Washington) sandwhiched between the 'Nati games will not. If Georgetown is playing for the #1 seed in the Big East Tournament, those last three games may not be especially troublesome for the Hoyas. But as before, 2-1 is a distinct possibility, with the Syracuse game the spoiler.

Dayton in Crunch Time, 2010

Dayton and Pythagoras
One of the interesting story lines in the Atlantic-10 Conference last season was the Dayton Flyers' "failure to launch". Through much of the out of conference schedule the Flyers won the games they were expected to win though they were not dominant in those wins. Playing a 37 game schedule, the Flyers participated in 13 games decided by five points or less, and logged an underwhelming 4-9 record in those games. This viewer's lofty expectations were shared by an array of 2010 preseason predictions, and justified (to a modest degree) by the Flyers' 0.971 Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP), as computed by Ken Pomeroy, who ranked the Flyers #26 in Division 1. I wondered, based on Pomeroy's log5 predictive model, whether the Flyers met expectations with those results (ie if they were expected to win, did they win, and if they were expected to lose, did they lose?). The table below suggests that the team in fact "under performed", as many felt they had...

	Result
	Expected	Actual
Win	9	4
Lose	4	4

Of the nine close games they were "supposed" to win (Georgia Tech -- yes, Pythagoras looks at points for and point against, not conference affiliations -- Towson, George Mason, Rhode Island, Saint Joseph's, both St. Louis games, Duquesne and Mississippi), they only won four (Tech, Towson, Mason and Ole' Miss), and of the four they were "supposed" to lose (New Mexico, both Xavier games and Richmond)...well, they did not exceed expectations. The results become even more interesting when broken out by (rough) chronology -- Out of Conference (early season), A-10 Conference games and the post season (A-10 Conference Tournament & NIT). The Flyers' record...

	W	L	Pct.
Out of Conference	3	1	0.750
A-10 Regular Season	0	7	0.000
Post Season	1	1	0.500

What Happened to Dayton?
Staff Writer Doug Harris from the Dayton Daily News penned a long and thoughtful analysis piece that settled on three explanations...
1. The Seniors Did Not Step Up -- for whatever reason (injuries perhaps?) seniors Rob Lowery, Marcus Johnson, London Warren and Kurt Huelsman in particular, did not see their games progress from their junior to the senior seasons. And that brought the team up short in tight games.
2. The Dynamic Was "Off" -- Saint Joseph's coach Phil Martelli wondered if the loss of A-10 All-Sixth Man Charles Little may have thrown the dynamics on the squad off just enough to come up short in close games.
3. The Coach Got It Wrong -- Coach Gregory's substitution pattern and game management had caused distractions that ultimately undermined the team effort. Ok, there were four reasons, sort of...
4. Dumb Darn (Buzzard) Luck -- Harris seemed to settle on this one, just stupid individual game circumstances coupled with random bad breaks.

While all were plausible (ok maybe not the luck one, at least not the variation Harris posited), how many were verifiable using stats and the play-by-play logs? I decided to look at all 13 games decided by five or fewer points. I took note of the score at the 5:00 minute mark, and then charted the plays (and the Flyer players) from that point to the end of the game (note in the first St. Louis game the Flyers and Billikens had to play two overtime periods to decide the contest)...

@5:00	Ahead	Behind	Tied
Overall	5	7	1
A-10 Only	2	4	1

I looked at Oliver's Four Factors for the last five minutes (and the two OTs) of the seven close A-10 regular season conference games, and teased out a few hints on what did and did not happen. But I also discovered a paradox that begged to be resolved...

					FTA
	Eff.	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Offense	105.8	45.7	16.2	24.3	42.5
Defense	104.5	46.4	12.8	24.3	101.3

How could the Flyers be 0-7 when their offensive efficiency (105.8) in the last five minutes of those games was greater than their defensive efficiency, 104.5 (Dayton's defensive efficiency is their opponents' offensive efficiency)? In three of those seven games the Flyers' offensive efficiency was excellent -- good enough to bury any opponent had it been sustained for a game, or even a half -- against Xavier (it was 127.1) on 1/16, Saint Joseph's (156.4) on 1/23 and St. Louis (142.9) on 3/6. The problem in each game however, is that at the 5:00 minute mark, the hole the Flyers had to dig themselves out of was pretty deep. The Flyers were -6 against Xavier (they lost by 4), -9 to Saint Joseph's (they lost by 1) and -9 to St. Louis (they lost by 5). Among the four factors, the numbers that stand out are the Flyers' offensive rebounding rate (24.3%), the defensive turnover rate (12.8%) and the defensive eFG% (46.4%), none of which was characteristic of Dayton's overall A-10 stats. Their opponent's FTA/FGA rate (101.3%) may be well above their A-10 average (41.9%), but consider that the team that is down typically fouls to gain possession, a higher than usual FTA/FGA rate would not surprise. The Flyers' conference offensive rebounding rate was 36.8% however, over 12% higher than their rate in the last five minutes of those seven close games. Juggling the rotation to put shooters (as opposed to rebounders) might explain the significant drop, but one of the Flyers' best offensive rebounders, sophomore wing Chris Johnson, logged about the same amount of time, yet had a 7% decline in his offensive rebounding rate (see below). Rob Lowery and Chris Wright aside (see below), just about everyone else in the "5:00 minute" rotation saw their offensive rebounding decline over their numbers from the first 35 minutes.

The Flyers Crunch Time Rotation -- Who Got the Ball?
I wanted to know who was handling the ball and taking the shots at the end of close games. Given that seven of Dayton's eight conference losses were by five or fewer points, their 0.792 PWP in conference games was a striking contradiction of their 8-8 conference record. What happened during conference play? While I compiled those "5:00 minute" stats for all 13 games, I decided to focus on those seven Atlantic-10 games in particular and look at who took the possessions and shots during crunch time...

								FTA
	Min%	Poss%	Shot%	PPWS	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
C Wright	97.7	22.4	21.5	1.23	53.8	12.8	6.0	53.8
C Johnson	65.8	36.7	44.1	0.77	33.3	3.8	0.0	16.7
M Johnson	59.5	21.4	16.3	1.00	50.0	0.0	41.0	0.0
L Warren	59.0	6.5	2.7	2.07	100.0	0.0	0.0	400.0
P Williams	56.0	9.5	8.6	1.52	100.0	0.0	24.5	66.7
R Lowery	53.6	43.7	33.1	1.27	54.5	9.3	22.3	45.5
K Huelsman	44.9	14.0	7.2	0.68	0.0	0.0	41.6	100.0
M Perry	32.0	27.5	25.2	0.60	30.0	0.0	14.8	0.0
D Searcy	22.9	15.4	14.1	1.54	100.0	0.0	0.0	200.0

With a few exceptions, the time allocation was fairly consistent with the Flyers' overall playing time. If preseason All-American nominee Chris Wright saw his playing jump to 98% of the possible time (up from 70.8%), no one should be surprised. A few of the seniors, Rob Lowry and London Warren saw their Min% increase modestly as well, though seniors Mickey Perry and Kurt Huelsman saw their proportion of the playing time decline slightly. The staff benched the deeper rotation players in favor of the more experienced players (and Chris Wright and Chris Johnson). The reallocation of possessions and shots however, was far more drastic. The calculation I used estimates a players proportion of possessions and shots by the amount of time the player was on the court. Since Wright was almost always on the court (he missed just over a minute in Dayton's loss to Duquesne), his relatively modest allocation of touches and shots can be explained by his enormous allocation of time -- Wright pretty much played consistently within the Dayton system. While he did take the second highest number of field goal attempts during his playing time (13), he did not take over any of those A-10 games.

What About the Seniors?
If Wright was playing within the offense, much as he did during the other 35 minutes, the same cannot be said for senior Rob Lowery, nor for sophomore Chris Johnson, both of whom took (to use Ken Pomeroy's terminology) Go-To Guy level possessions and shots. Perhaps these were the result of set plays drawn up by the staff, or maybe the players were winging it in crunch time, but for Lowery, the larger role seems, on paper, justified. The senior converted his FGAs at a 54.5% rate, well above most of his fellow seniors, not to mention Chris Wright and Chris Johnson. If Perry and Huelsman's contributions were limited by coaching decision, what of Marcus Johnson and London Warren? Both received larger portions of the playing time, consistent with a strategy that would try to put experienced players on the floor when possessions mattered. Neither Warren nor Marcus Johnson however, seemed to shoulder more responsibility for offensive production. Indeed Warren seemed content to dish assists and go to the line for free throws, rather than take field goal attempts. Marcus Johnson's decision to take fewer possessions (and shots) may well have derived from an untimely high turnover rate (41.0), combined with a conversion efficiency, 50%, that was only slightly better than his overall conversion rate of 48.4%. Late game turnovers have a habit of being amplified over early game turnovers. His defensive rebounding rate, coupled with a 4.4% steal rate, no doubt made a case for keeping him in for defensive purposes. Warren had a very good 21.2% assist rate, but became invisible for shooting, taking only 2.7% of the available shots, as opposed to the very modest 10.3% he took overall.

What About the Coach?
On average Coach Gregory did make 9.1 substitutions in the seven A-10 losses, while he averaged about 8.3 substitutions in the other six games. A closer look however shows that in two of the seven A-10 losses Coach Gregory made 15 (Xavier on 1/16) and 17 (St. Louis 2/13). The traditional rivalry with Xavier, coupled with the fact that it was the first close conference game the Flyers played, may explain why the coach committed 15 substitutions in five minutes (there were no player DQs from fouls). The St. Louis game should be put in perspective -- there were two overtimes in addition to the last five minutes of regulation. 17 substitutions in 15 minutes should not be too disruptive for a squad's rhythm. Setting those two games aside, the Flyer staff substituted an average of 6.4 times, with a standard deviation of 1.4 (ie he subbed just over once per minute in the lasst five minutes of the other games, and did not vary the number of substitutions much from close A-10 game to A-10 game).

	Min%	Ast%	DR%	Stl%
Chris Wright	97.7	5.7	11.9	1.3
Chris Johnson	65.8	0.0	24.7	0.0
Marcus Johnson	59.5	7.3	15.6	4.4
London Warren	59.0	21.2	11.8	2.2
Paul Williams	56.0	0.0	16.6	0.0
Rob Lowery	53.6	56.0	0.0	2.4
Kurt Huelsman	44.9	0.0	15.5	0.0
Mickey Perry	32.0	52.1	14.5	0.0
Devin Searcy	22.9	0.0	0.0	0.0

What About the Chemistry?
Sometimes a single incidnt can influence perceptions about a player or a team. Rob Lowery's meltdown at the end of (yet another) close Xavier game in the Atlantic-10 Conference quarter-finals may have shaped attitudes about his contributions, particularly when the game was on the line. Not only was his shot efficiency (eFG%) better when the game was on the line, he tended to take more shots (proportionally) when the stakes rose. His assist rate (Ast% in the table above -- 56.0%) and offensive rebounding rate (9.3%) suggest that he did not see himself simply as a scorer and shooter at crunch time. His two major detractors, based on the play-by-play, were a bad habit of turning over the ball (22.3%, lower actually than his overall 27.3% rate), and that technical he drew against Terrell Holloway in Atlantic City. None of the theories noted Chris Johnson's rather large, and largely inefficient, role in the offense. Johnson's proportion of the minutes increased in crunch time, clearly he had the confidence of the coaching staff. He was second in time only to Chris Wright, but his inability to convert efficiency in the clutch however seems to have been largely overlooked by fans and staff. His strongest virtue at crunch time was that he did not turn the ball over. But his tendency to shoot (he took nearly 50% of the available shots when he was on the floor in the last five minutes; he took the most FGAs, 18, of any Flyer player in those seven conference games, and 13 of those shots were three point attempts.

What About Luck?
No question the Flyers were unlucky, but was it dumb bad luck or something that can be quantified? Comparing a teams' record with it's Pythagorean Winning Percentage can provide a standard measure, especially when you do it for all 347 Division 1 teams. At -.108, the Flyers ranked #340 out of 347. They were very unlucky compared to their Division 1 counterparts (and the unluckiest team in the A-10). The good news for the Flyers -- teams with bad luck one season tend to rebound the next. With a PWP of .9170, the Flyers should win between 10 and 12 conference games next season.

Why This Matters in 2011
While it is tempting to put 2010 in the rear view mirror, the Flyers are returning the two players who logged the highest proportion of crunch time minutes. Chances are very good those two will see the largest proportion of crunch time minutes again in 2011. Chris Johnson, as useful as he was for defensive rebounding will have to do better with his shot. Paul Williams and Devin Searcy will most likely get long looks in Fall practice, but it is unlikely that the staff will give the green light to entering freshmen Juwan Staten (pg) or Brandon Spearman (sg) to take 33.1% (much less 44%) of the available shots.

Rising Seniors -- Nine to Watch

What I Am Looking For
Austin Freeman won't make this list. Neither will Jimmy Butler nor Tim Abromaitis. They are names already; they made one of the "All Big East" Teams last March. Everybody knows them, and everyone will have them on their "Best in" or "Top" list in the next three months. They are already a bullet on ESPN's "Keys to the Game" pre-game analysis, and will probably continue their bullet status this season. They made their marks during their freshmen or sophomore or junior seasons. Those "name" guys decided to come back and...
a. Finish their education;
b. Improve their draft status;
c. Help their team win a Big East Championship/NCAA Championship;
d. Savor one last year of...before heading out into the world to earn a living;
e. All of the above.

Corey Fisher, Jeremy Hazell and the other recognized junior and senior players, veterans all, make the Big East Conference the best conference for watching basketball. But every season a Hilton Armstrong, or an Andy Rautins, a Jon Wallace or a Dante Cunningham lands in the national press (and picks up a post season Big East award or two) seemingly out of nowhere. Invisible to many except their team's fans, these seniors tend to start somewhere back in that freshman pack, or labor in the vineyards of a low ranking team, but unlike their classmates, they (and their team?) improve quietly every season. By Pomeroy's classification system they may start as a "Role", "Limited Role" or even "Invisible" player, and grow into a "Major" or "Go-to Guy" player over the course of their four years. Pomeroy discusses growth "probabilities" in "Putting Individual Efficiency into Perspective" over at The Basketball Prospectus back in 2007. These guys tend to push at the upper limit of their growth curve each season. The Jon Wallaces and Orinze Onuakus -- are drawing a good share of the minutes at their position going into their senior seasons and they are drawing somewhere between 18% - 20% of the possessions when they are on the floor. They may lurk off the MSM's radar, but their teammates know who they are, look for them on the floor...and trust them with the ball.

			On Offense...
Player	School	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shot	PPWS
Marshon Brooks	PC	66.2	113.9	22.8	25.9	1.10
Scoop Jardine	Cuse	55.6	113.6	22.6	20.7	1.15
Antonio Pena	Nova	61.9	112.3	20.3	18.1	1.22
Chris Wright	GTown	87.8	111.7	23.2	24.4	1.14
Gilbert Brown	Pitt	39.3	110.9	23.2	23.5	1.19
D.J. Kennedy	John's	77.4	110.4	25.8	23.5	1.15
Rick Jackson	Cuse	65.7	108.6	19.6	19.0	1.16
Brad Wanamaker	Pitt	79.6	105.8	24.7	21.0	1.08
Dwight Hardy	John's	48.1	102.4	23.7	28.0	1.06

Marshon Brooks fits the profile, each season his role with the Friars has, for the most part, grown. Securing 22.5% of the possessions and over a quarter of the shots last season would put Brooks on an "All" team if his team finished 0.500 or better in conference play. The Friars didn't, and Brooks will probably put in his last season playing for a team that may well post fewer than the four "W"s they earned in conference play in 2010. Pitt's Gilbert Brown is another outlier. I set 40% as the cutoff for consideration this season, largely on the notion that if the player had not been able to draw that many minutes, there must be some other coach-player issue at work. Brown actually logged about 58.8% of the PT as soon as he became academically eligible. His numbers through what was obviously the toughest part of Pittsburgh's schedule were impressive. Each season Brown has faced a challenge putting in an entire season, and when he could (his sophomore season) there was a logjam at his spot. If he can stay healthy, this might well be the payout year for those among the Pitt faithful who did not falter. Everyone knows Chris Wright out of Georgetown already, but this is one reason I prefer the more traditional, five player "All Team" recognition. Had the voters had 22 slots (instead of 15) to fill, Wright would definitely made it. Rush the Court's Zach Hayes ranks Wright #9 on his Big East Top 20 list. After a red shirt year (injury), and a prolonged un-mentored "orientation" sophomore season Wright's role and efficiency has improved each season. I was not sure about Villanova's Antonio Pena, while his shooting efficiency stats are strong (and his offensive rebounding rate is outstanding) his "share" of shot taking is a little light at 18.1%. That the staff tended to limit his minutes in tight games is not reassuring either. But Pena is a senior, and Villanova's staff tend to hand a good deal of responsibility to their upperclassmen. 'Tone is a solid player who can be very good (when he holds onto the ball). Maybe he needs a little faith...in himself.

			Four Factors...
						FTA
Player	School	%Min	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
Marshon Brooks	PC	66.2	53.1	6.5	14.9	23.1
Scoop Jardine	Cuse	55.6	53.4	1.9	21.4	39.5
Antonio Pena	Nova	61.9	57.7	10.4	20.4	61.4
Chris Wright	GTown	87.8	52.6	2.1	16.5	35.7
Gilbert Brown	Pitt	39.3	56.0	4.7	17.9	50.3
D.J. Kennedy	John's	77.4	52.3	6.2	18.6	49.0
Rick Jackson	Cuse	65.7	59.1	12.7	21.2	34.1
Brad Wanamaker	Pitt	79.6	48.0	6.3	21.3	57.8
Dwight Hardy	John's	48.1	50.6	2.2	15.5	22.8

Check out Rick Jackson's offensive rebounding rate (OR%). The "average" varies by position, and offensive systems can emphasize offensive rebounding (Villanova's) or de-emphasize it (Michigan) depending on the priorities set by the staff. According to Ken Pomeroy 21.4 was the highest in Division 1, 12.8 is Top 100 and 8.7 is Top 500. In any system 10 is very good, and Jackson grabbed 12.7% of the offensive boards when he was in the game. For both Jackson and teammate Scoop Jardine (and Pitt's Brad Wannamaker and Villanova's Pena...) was turnovers. In a low possession system (Pitt/Wannamaker) that can be a killer. For Jardine the redeeming attribute was his assist rate (Top 50 per Pomeroy); for Jackson, it was his rebounding, at both ends of the court.

		Miscellaneous...
Player	School	Ast%	DR%	Blk%	Stl%
Marshon Brooks	PC	10.1	9.8	1.7	2.7
Scoop Jardine	Cuse	32.5	7.2	0.3	3.0
Antonio Pena	Nova	7.5	21.0	2.3	2.2
Chris Wright	GTown	22.6	8.0	0.8	2.5
Gilbert Brown	Pitt	17.9	10.9	1.0	1.3
D.J. Kennedy	John's	21.5	16.3	2.2	2.2
Rick Jackson	Cuse	11.2	16.5	8.2	2.2
Brad Wanamaker	Pitt	31.3	14.0	0.9	2.3
Dwight Hardy	John's	8.7	8.0	0.3	1.8

St. John's duo DJ Kennedy and Dwight Hardy labored long and hard last season. Kennedy has been a Johnny for three seasons, and worked every season to put the Red Storm into the conferences' upper division. Hardy transferred in, sat a season and will play his second and final season in Queens. St. John's fans have valued Kennedy's scoring efficiency and hustle, while lamenting his (occasional) lapses in situational judgement. The problem may be correctable if, with that last timeout in a game, the staff sends the squad back out with a play that has a good chance of success.

Hits & Misses...Last Year's List
A few of last summer's "Nine to Watch" seniors had very good years. Andy Rautins and Orinze Onuaku (& Wes Johnson, &...everyone involved, everyone involved) led the Orange to the top of the conference as the entire team had a breakout season. An untimely injury to Onuaku, their anchor in the low post, derailed what might have been a deep NCCAA Tournament run. Pittsburgh's Jermaine Dixon increased his possession and shot rates dramatically, but his efficiency crashed, and his minutes declined through the season. Villanova's Reggie Redding returned from his fall suspension, and assumed much the same role his senior season as he did his junior season. He finished with about the same percentage of possessions, shots (role player status) and offensive rating (104). The Wildcats were good, but did not appear to get better as they moved through the season. Reggie is playing in Cyprus. Stanley Robinson's role in Connecticut's offense did grow significantly, as the senior took more possessions and shots in the Husky offense. He improved his offensive rating in the process, but as a whole the team stepped back to an 18-16 record and, for the second time in five seasons, NIT status. Robinson was taken by the Orlando Magic in the second round of the NBA draft. Stix Mitchell watched his role with the Pirates disappear when Jeff Robinson became eligible and took an increasingly large role in the Hall's offense and defense. By the end of the season Robinson (and freshman Ferrakon Hall) took most of the available minutes at the #3. Seton Hall's record improved and they received an NIT bid after losing in the quarter-final round of the Big East Tournament. After a Big East Tournament post game outburst however, Mitchell was dismissed from the team, and did not play in the NIT.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: At the NIT -- The Last Waltz?

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY - It was championship number three. Dayton defeated North Carolina 79-68 to win the 73rd NIT at Madison Square Garden. The Flyers previously won in 1962 and ‘68.

Madison Square Garden, NYC
The skies may have been Carolina Blue...
...but the sun shined on Dayton

The factors and numbers from a 70 (UNC 72 Dayton 68) possession game:

			FTM
	ORtg	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
North Carolina	94	49	13	27	21
Dayton	116	58	17	32	16

Dayton had an outstanding offensive showing but the staples of defense and poise were crucial for the Atlantic Ten representatives. The Tar Heels were solid from the perimeter shooting 8 of 20 (40%) from beyond the arc. Junior forward Will graves did appreciable damage with a game high 25 points punctuated with a 7 of 13 performance from downtown. In the stretch when Dayton finally achieved game winning separation, the percentages from the perimeter caught up with UNC, a 26% three point shooting team in four prior NIT contests. Flyers did a significant job inside the arc limiting the Tar Heels to a 44% (18 of 41) night on two point field goals.

Turnovers, those forced by Dayton, was a significant factor. Brian Gregory’s club forced 10 first half TOs (a 26% rate) en route to a 45-32 halftime lead. Carolina cared for the ball better the final twenty minutes (only 5 turnovers) which helped get them back in it. A 7-0 opening run the first two minutes after intermission was very significant as well.

In the end that Dayton offensive efficiency was supported by a creditable 35% from three and of greater note, 62% (18 of 29) from two point range as the Flyers attacked the basket with a vengeance.

At the half UNC enjoyed a 38%-21% edge in offensive rebounding percentage. Dayton hit the boards harder the second half limiting the Tar Heels to two offensive boards the final 20 minutes and securing the edge on the offensive glass.

The double figure scorers and efficiency. The Martin Manley and NBA efficiency model adds points, rebounds, made shots, blocked shots, steals, and assists while subtracting turnovers and missed shots.

		Efficiency
Dayton	Pts.	Rtg	Min.
Marcus Johnson	20	16	0.533
Chris Johnson	14	18	1.06
Chris Wright	14	21	0.750
Paul Williams	16	17	0.654

		Efficiency
North Carolina	Pts.	Rtg	Min.
Will Graves	25	17	0.567
Deon Thompson	13	18	0.581
Larry Drew II	12	11	0.333
Tyler Zeller	11	5	0.217

Dayton numbers were solid across the board. Chris Johnson’s efficiency per minute metric was on a ’superstar’ level. Johnson added 9 boards in a 17 minute outing that was limited due to a hip injury suffered in the game. Drew II of UNC had 8 assists but his 6 turnovers were detrimental. Tyler Zeller, the tar Heels 7-foot soph who came on strong in the NIT, scored in doubles but his efficiency was hurt by a shutout in the rebounding department in a 23 minute evening.

Not in the box score. Deon Thompson set an NCAA record in the final. It was the UNC senior’s 152nd career game breaking the record shared by Kentucky’s Wayne turner (1996-99) and Walter Hodge of Florida (2006-09).

Not in the Box Score Part Two. Dayton led 17-8 in second chance points. A key stat considering rebounding was a Flyer concern entering the final.

The last...waltz? With talk of NCAA expansion to 96 teams the idea the NIT might have seen its last tournament was a topic of discussion. Both coaches felt the NIT being phased out would be unfortunate. As Brian Gregory said, “Dayton built its national brand name (years ago) here in the NIT at Madison Square Garden.”

Dayton is tempo free. Dayton assistant Jon Borovich said the Flyers study tempo free statistics closely. “Coach (Brian) Gregory will bring them up in staff meetings citing turnover rates and points per possession,” Borovich said before Tuesday’s semifinal. “We chart possessions on the bench as a staff and points per possession and other (tempo free) stats we pay close attention to.”

All Tournament...
Delroy James	Rhode Island
Will Graves	North Carolina
Deon Thompson	North Carolina
Marcus Johnson	Dayton
Most Outstanding Player - Chris Johnson Dayton

“You can’t measure heart and this team had the biggest heart of any team I coached” - Dayton coach Brian Gregory

“We just didn’t finish the job….I thought Brian’s (Gregory) team was so active, you just have to congratulate them.” - UNC coach Roy Williams

Dayton players greet their fans

The Fans. “It was like a home game,” Gregory said,” our fans are absolutely great and we put them through a lot this year.” Dayton players truly appreciated their outstanding and passionately devoted followers. Part of the celebration saw the players recognize the band and cheerleaders for their great support. They then went into the stands at the Garden to personally say thanks to their fans. The exclamation point on a wonderful night for Dayton and its faithful.

Flyer squad poses with
the Dayton Cheering Squad

Preview 2009-10 -- Georgetown Hoyas

Too Busy for the Details?
From #1 in 2008 to #12 in 2009, (back to) #? in 2010? Anyone feel the need for some Dramamine? Coach Thompson will bring back a sophomore and junior dominated squad for 2010. The Hoyas will finish higher than they did in 2009 -- they bring back most of their points, minutes and rebounding. The entering class does not promise any missing (or last) pieces; everything is already in the program. The challenge was to bring them back, having lost #4 DaJuan Summers who would have been a senior this season. Prognosis -- A 2nd quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2010	2009	2008
%Min	68.7	43.7	78.2
%Pts	67.9	46.9	74.9
%FGM	70.1	45.4	74.8
%3FGM	46.6	62.1	80.9
%OReb	70.6	32.5	77.5
%DReb	69.6	46.8	72.3
%TReb	69.9	43.0	74.0

The Hoyas lost a lot of returning minutes going into the 2009 season. Had Summers taken his senior season the returning minutes would have been >80%, providing Georgetown with the kind of experience that they had going into the 2008 season. But that did not come to pass. Of particular interest is the absence of 3 point shooting, that outside threat has historically worked to Georgetown's advantage when the Princeton Offense was a well oiled machine.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2008-09		2007-08		2006-07
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Overall ORtg	111.2	45	117.2	18	124.8	2
Overall DRtg	91.1	22	86.4	6	89.3	20
Big East ORtg	101.4	12	104.5	8	111.4	1
Big East DRtg	102.9	7	93.1	2	95.3	4
Four Factors -- Overall
All Off. eFG%	53.0	41	56.8	4	57.0	4
All Off. TOv%	21.6	247	21.2	192	22.0	213
All Off. OReb%	33.5	148	33.8	132	40.2	8
All Off. FTA/FGA	41.9	41	34.2	237	36.6	164
All Def. eFG%	45.9	40	42.0	1	44.1	10
All Def. TOv%	21.6	98	18.9	279	19.3	267
All Def. OReb%	36.2	292	32.8	157	33.9	191
All Def. FTA/FGA	33.3	102	36.0	163	32.1	78
Four Factors -- Big East
BE Off. eFG%	51.0	7	52.7	2	56.9	1
BE Off. TOv%	22.3	14	21.9	14	22.3	14
BE Off. OReb%	34.1	9	31.2	13	39.8	3
BE Off. FTA/FGA	34.6	7	37.5	7	28.6	5
BE Def. eFG%	49.1	8	42.5	1	45.2	3
BE Def. TOv%	20.9	4	19.7	8	19.9	7
BE Def. OReb%	36.7	12	32.0	6	33.4	8
BE Def. FTA/FGA	38.4	12	40.6	12	19.8	2
Miscellanious
All Gms Cons	27.5	340	22.1	238	22.1	233
All Gms Luck	-.113	339	+.021	96	+.001	55

Turnovers aside, the Hoya's 2006-07 four factors profile is probably as close to ideal for the Princeton Offense as a team can get. Despite very average defensive numbers in conference play in both 2007 and 2008, the Hoyas maintained their status as an elite team. 2009's stepback defensively came in shot defense and defensive rebounding.

	For the Record...
	2008-09			2007-08			2006-07
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	16	15	0.516	28	6	0.824	30	7	0.811
Big East	7	11	0.389	15	3	0.833	13	3	0.813
Post Season?	NIT/Rnd 1			NCAA/Rnd 2			NCAA/Rnd 5

I believed the Hoyas would have difficulty earning a third consecutive BET bye seed in 2009. The squad's youth, especially when taken in the context of the conference's overall maturity, coupled with the loss of specific skills offered by Roy Hibbert (rebounding & scoring efficiency) and Jon Wallace (perimeter offense), would weigh heavily against them. I did not anticipate a losing conference record however.

The Hoya's Nucleus

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTR%
Wright	81.0	107.8	21.9	22.0	53.7	1.15	1.2	41.1
Monroe	76.0	110.8	23.3	20.8	57.6	1.22	8.8	60.0
Freeman	72.5	115.2	19.5	21.7	53.4	1.15	5.2	41.0
Clark	45.1	100.3	17.2	16.1	57.0	1.22	7.2	31.3
Mescheriakov	25.3	81.5	15.5	16.0	43.0	0.89	4.7	21.9
Sims	21.8	90.5	14.5	15.1	42.3	0.90	7.9	32.7
Vaughn	20.9	88.6	18.1	13.9	45.7	0.96	11.3	47.8

Summers (departed), Wright and Monroe formed the "offensive engine" for the Hoyas. With Summers' exit, who will step into that role? Monroe may have a few more touches in him, but if Georgetown is reduced to an inside/outside duo (Wright-Monroe), they will give away those aspects of the Princeton Offense (simultaneous, multiple inside/outside scoring threats) most responsible for it's efficiency. Austin Freeman seems poised to assume a larger role, but a versatile wing/forward, in the mold of Jeff Green or Summers would be most helpful...Jason Clark anyone?

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Chris Wright	81.0	9.5	25.1	20.4	0.3	2.1
Greg Monroe	76.0	16.7	18.8	21.3	5.1	3.7
Austin Freeman	72.5	11.3	14.6	13.9	0.6	1.8
Jason Clark	45.1	10.0	9.0	29.1	1.1	2.2
Nikita Mescheriakov	25.3	8.2	7.8	27.5	0.7	1.7
Henry Sims	21.8	13.2	5.7	20.2	6.3	1.8
Julian Vaughn	20.9	12.1	14.2	29.8	7.4	1.4

The Hoyas need to find defensive rebounds. Among the returning players, only Greg Monroe was ranked in Pomeroy's Top 500. For a program that boasted 2 sometimes 3 top 500 rebounders (a Top 100 in 2006), 2009 was a big step back.

Significant Additions
With no gaping holes to fill and no inbound transfers this season, it comes as no surprise the incoming true freshmen (three of them) are not Top 10/50 types. Of the three, 6-7, 190 lb 5th year #3 Hollis Thompson has received the widest recognition. Hollis enrolled in the Spring 2009 and participated in practices during the last season. 6-2 #2 guard Vee Sanford and 6-7, 200 lbs Jerrelle Benimon, a #4 out of Fauquier H.S. (VA) will have time to learn Coach Thompson's system.

Explode If...
As the 2009 season wound down the bloggers over at Hoya Prospectus launched an indepth exploration of why the Hoyas' season went South. While definative conclusions were few, they did examine 6 different (statistical) aspects of the Hoyas' game, "Pace and Turnovers", "Shooting" (efficient conversion), "Shot Selection", "Free Throw Defense" (not as strange as it sounds, it was actually a preamble to luck and experience...), "More Luck" and "Experience and Depth". The bloggers did not develop a structured narrative for what happened to Georgetown. Of the series, the first two were the most enlightening. They, when combined with a largely overlooked (but in my opinion, one of the best posts written on the blog) entry titled "The Problem of Rebounding", probably explain what happened to Georgetown. During the 2007 season Ken Pomeroy identified one of Georgetown's enduring paradoxes -- that the Hoyas, running a low possession offensive system (the Princeton Offense) and somewhat prone to turnovers were, nevertheless, one of the most efficient offensive teams in DI ball. In the 2 seasons since their Final Four appearance the bloggers observed the Hoya's increasing pace (possessions per game), even as their offensive efficiency declined (slightly at first, a good deal more last season). The key to efficient offensive possessions was their offensive rebounding. The Hoyas were able to parlay missed FGAs into a second 35 second period, usually long enough to reset their offense and take advantage of what they learned about the defense in their last offensive sequence. Given enough 2nd chances, they were able to convert. As their offensive rebounding declined (with no appreciable increase in their field goal shooting percentages), their pace increased and offensive efficiency declined. To right the ship, the Hoyas will have to begin with rebounding.
1. Monroe, a top 500 rebounder at both ends of the floor needs to become a top 100 rebounder. Sims, when he hits the floor, will have to embrace the mission as well. The Hoyas excelled when at least two players were ranked in Pomeroy's top 500 for rebounding (with one of the ranked players higher...much higher). The third rebounding monster will most likely have to come from a guard spot -- Austin Freeman, Jason Clark possibly -- or Nikita Mescheriakov (or Hollis Thompson?) a forward.
2. Consistent 3 point shooting departed with Jon Wallace in 2008. Jesse Sapp and DaJuan Summers took responsibility for that part of the Hoya offense in 2009, but with mixed results as both had conversion rates in the mid-high 30s. The mantle will pass to some combination of Mescheriakov, Clark, Freeman and Wright, a quartet whose accuracy ranged from the mid 20s to the mid 30s. The group will have to add about 10 points to their completion percentage.
3. The person holding the ball in the Princeton Offense ideally should have three options -- pass to one of two cutters or take the shot himself. The key is to have the player best able to score the points take the shot. It is no coincidence that in their best seasons Georgetown had 2 players -- one usually a forward -- ranked in the top 500 in Ast%...with a third player just outside of that ranking. Point guard Chris Wright had an assist rate of 25% (maybe too high!?), with the next highest just outside the top 500 ranking. The issue is not the number of assists, but rather the distribution/frequency of assists. If Chris Wright understands that his job is not to find the shooter and get him the ball, but rather to "set the table" -- that is, initiate the offense, -- then run his pattern, thus allowing the offense sequence run out with each player who holds the ball decide to pass or take the shot, the offensive system play to it's strength.

Implode If...
The Hoyas rolled into Storr on December 29th to open their Big East season. They were 10-1 and the Huskies were 11-0. Georgetown throttled UConn 74-63, and seemed to be on their way. Even through the next 2½ weeks, the Hoyas maintained a 12-4 record (a home loss to Pitt and 2 road losses, one to Duke and the other to Notre Dame) with Monroe joining Wright in the top 500 for assist rates, and guard/forward Austin Freeman hovering just below at 16. Then the well oiled machine fell apart as they went 4-11 the rest of the way, as Monroe's assist rate declined to 18.8 while Freeman slumped to 14.6. Given there were no injuries or dismissals due to academics or discipline, the collapse was especially odd. What causes a season to turn on a dime? What caused the Hoya season to turn in 3 weeks?
1. They cannot control the offensive or defensive boards. Offensive boards will allow them to compensate for average shooting without being penalized too severely for turnovers. Defensive rebounding can depress the opponent's score, especially if they are a poor shooting team.
2. Don't distribute the ball. Don't get the ball to the player with the best chance to score.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
Georgetown under Coach Thompson has usually had a What?!!?? game or two in the OOC, so a mediocre outing early will most likely not be a clear indication of how they are progressing. Their game versus Washington in the John Wooden Classic, should be a good early bellweather. Playing on a Pac-10 court, the Huskies, winners of the regular season Pac-10 title last season, will not exactly have a homecourt advantage, but it will be pretty close. A good showing in Los Angeles, if coupled with a win over Butler, a well coached program out of the Horizon League, will surely be an early indication that the Hoyas are moving in the right direction.

The Hoyas will be tested early in their Big East schedule, as they host Connecticut on 1/9 (their 4th game in the Big East regular season) to open a two game homestand that features Seton Hall as the encore. Georgetown then takes to the road for two games, first against the Wildcats and then the Panthers. 4-0 through that stretch would most likely put them at 7-0 (they open with a 3 game sequence that begins with a home game against St. John's and then a Mid-West road trip that takes them to DePaul and Marquette). A 5-2 or better start should be taken as good news by the Hoya fan-base. Their five game run to close out the season, three home games against Syracuse, Notre Dame and Cincinnati separated by road trips to Louisville and West Virginia will be difficult. But if the Hoyas are, like last season, out of gas at that point, that run will be brutal.

25 Top PPWS Returning Players

True Shot or PPWS?
John Hollinger developed the True Shot statistic as a way of expressing a player's overall shooting capability with a single value. True Shot folds the player's free throw proficiency into his field goal efficiency (2FGA & 3FGA), expressing all three elements of shooting as a single number. If eFG% can, with a single number, provide a sense of the player's ability to convert field goal attempts (2s and 3s), True Shot provides a sense of a player's ability to convert field goal attempts into points, whether those points come with successful 2s, 3s or free throws. The specfic calculation varies slightly from DI to the NBA, and from author to author, the idea (and elements) however, remain the same. Points Per Weighted Shot (PPWS) is the same calculation with one difference -- True Shot calculations multiply the player's points scored by 50, while PPWS does not. True Shot then is expressed as an implied percentage (ie xx.x), while PPWS looks more like...well points per shot (ie x.xx). True Shot's advantage is that it provides a "normalized" representation of the conversion metric, consistent with eFG%, 3FGM%, and FTM%, which makes it easier to compare the values. I like PPWS because it can tell me at a glance how many points a player can score every time he takes a shot. He will either convert from the field, or at the line (or not). The PPWS calculation (for DI)...

PPWS = Pts / ((0.475 * FTA) + FGA)

Want the True Shot? Just multiply Pts by 50 before dividing. For True Shot, anything above 60 is very good, while 50 is the threshold for "good". By the same token, a PPWS of 1.20 or greater is very good, below 1.00, and the player is not at all efficient at converting his field goal opportunities. Freshmen will typically have PPWSs ranging from the mid 80s to the high 90s, though some of the best will record PPWSs > 1.00 (see Greg Monroe below -- a PPWS of 1.22).

Top Guns
I have listed (about) 25 Big East players, returning for 2010, who recorded the highest PPWSs in 2009. The player had to log => 40% of the time in his position. I included the player's eFG%, field goal attempts (FGA), 3 point attempts (3PA), free throw attempts (FTA), minutes (MIN), points (PTS) and percentage of available shots taken while the player was in the game. The players highlighted in dark green were the focal points (to use Ken Pomeroy's term, the "Go-to Guys") for their team's offense. Light green suggests a prominent (but not overwhelming -- per Pomeroy a "Major" or a "Significant" Contributor) role, a player who may share the 1st option on offense role with another player, or one who is the 2nd option on offense.

Player	Team	MIN	%Min	PPWS	%Shot	eFG%	FGA	FTA	3PA	PTS
J Smith	Ville	785	52.9	1.28	16.9	63.1	195	65	131	289
Butler	MU	687	48.9	1.22	10.8	51.4	107	112	4	196
Monroe	GTown	958	76.0	1.22	20.8	57.6	250	150	6	393
N'Diaye	RU	745	58.0	1.22	10.8	58.7	109	79	1	179
Clark	GTown	568	45.1	1.22	16.1	57.0	115	36	50	161
Jackson	Cuse	839	53.4	1.21	18.3	62.3	223	77	1	315
Samuels	Ville	929	62.6	1.21	20.6	57.8	282	165	1	436
Onuaku	Cuse	1017	64.8	1.21	18.1	66.7	267	124	0	393
Wanamaker	Pitt	683	47.4	1.18	13.9	54.2	143	71	59	208
Stokes	Nova	868	56.9	1.18	21.5	55.2	268	66	182	352
Garcia	Hall	803	62.0	1.17	13.7	60.6	165	56	0	225
Freeman	GTown	913	72.5	1.15	21.7	53.4	249	102	85	343
Wright	GTown	1021	81.0	1.15	22.0	53.7	282	116	96	387
Hayward	MU	1109	78.9	1.14	27.2	53.0	435	133	148	570
Knowles	Ville	619	41.7	1.12	21.0	56.3	192	19	111	226
Hazell	Hall	1161	89.7	1.12	31.6	52.3	550	204	290	726
Reynolds	Nova	1223	80.2	1.12	23.9	48.9	420	205	215	578
Echenique	RU	909	70.7	1.11	15.0	50.8	185	122	1	270
Fisher	Nova	925	60.6	1.10	22.3	48.0	296	162	94	410
Walker	UConn	907	61.5	1.10	18.1	49.8	234	123	48	321
Rautins	Cuse	1059	67.4	1.10	21.6	53.3	332	45	279	387
Sanchez	USF	535	43.0	1.09	12.9	53.3	92	47	0	125
Koshwal	DPU	1026	77.7	1.08	20.0	52.7	298	134	2	391
Pena	Nova	652	42.7	1.08	14.2	48.1	133	89	1	189
Vaughn	Nati	1146	88.5	1.07	24.1	49.0	399	120	240	488
Robinson	UConn	696	47.2	1.07	19.4	51.3	192	63	23	237
Brooks	PC	696	52.5	1.07	26.4	50.9	279	79	128	338

Providence's Marshon Brooks and Corey Stokes out of Villanova will get more recognition when they are logging more minutes. For Brooks, playing in a rotation with (senior) Weymini Efejuku and (sophomore) Brian McKenzie last season, the door is wide open as the Friars lost 3 starters and McKenzie aside, the team has few bench players when the Class of 2009 moved on. Coach Davis has some replacements coming in, but a shallow bench leaves few to challenge him for the starter's nod. Stokes will play in front of freshman Dominic Cheek, but expect Cheek, and when he returns, senior Reggie Redding, to push Stokes for time. Lazar Hayward, fresh off of a bronze medal (a teammate of Corey Fisher on the USA team) run at the World University Games this past summer, will get as much offensive responsibility as he can handle when he takes the court for Marquette. With the departure of the 3 Amigos and front court player Dwight Burke, Hayward is the only experienced volume scorer returning this season. Marquette will have a handful of JUCOs and true freshmen to compete for the vacated starting spots, but the newcomers will initially complement Hayward's offense. Jeremy Hazell's Pirates will have something they have not had in a few seasons -- legitimate 2nd and 3rd scoring options to draw some of the defensive attention that Hazell has drawn. Hazell will most likely scale back (or at least stay about where he is) his shooting, but with more space to work in, expect him to become even more efficient at scoring. Between them Louisville's wings, Jerry Smith and Preston Knowles have accounted for over 93% of the minutes, converting shot to points very efficiently as 3rd/4th options in the offense, complements of the attention Williams and Clark drew from opposing defenses. The Cardinals may need more from these two in 2010. Whether they play together or in sequence, they will most likely be expected to take more liberties with their shooting.

I was a bit surprised to see no less than 4 Hoyas, Greg Monroe, Jason Clark, Austin Freeman and Chris Wright, among the 25 (27 actually, I used 1.07 as the cutoff point for list), about 1/8 of the list then comes from a single team. With four players (3 starters) drawing a PPWS of 1.07 or better, how could Georgetown have a raw offensive rating (per Ken Pomeroy) of just 106.4? The guys over at the Hoya Prospectus Blog partially answered that question in their August 14 post on turnovers during conference play. Of the 4 on the PPWS list, only Freeman appeared to value the ball. Monroe and Clark were worse than the team average, while point guard Chris Wright with a turnover rate of 22%, was just below the team's average of 23% for conference play. That 23% turnover rate ranked the Hoyas #14 among conference teams. Ouch.