Guest Contributor Ray Floriani -- Preseason NIT Finals

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY -- The shot chart the last eight minutes of the game showed Syracuse with nine field goals, Kris Joseph hitting five of them. The senior forward was instrumental in the Syracuse's 69-63 victory over Stanford in the Pre-Season NIT championship at Madison Square Garden.

The court at Madison Square Garden

The scores:

Consolation Game...
Virginia Tech	59		57	Oklahoma State

Championship Game...
Syracuse	69		63	Stanford

The possessions and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Stanford	69	91
Syracuse	72	96

Beside Joseph, the victory was predicated on good old full court pressure defense. The Cardinal had an eight point lead with under seven minutes to go and appeared to be in control. Syracuse then went into the press that forced turnovers, created quick scores and accelerated the pace. As Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim pointed out, Stanford was doing a great job controlling the clock with possessions in the 30-35 second range. Down eight that late , it would have been very difficult to come back if the possessions continued at that pace.

Joseph had a game high 18 points, earning Most Outstanding Player honors. Those five field goals in the latter eight minutes came from varying areas. There was a three pointer, two mid range jumpers and two closely defended penetrations in the paint.

MVP Kris Joseph of Syracuse

Syracuse did have an eFg percentage of 51%. Regardless, Boeheim feels his offense or improvement of it, is priority one. The Orange were guilty of 21 turnovers, an extremely high 29% TO rate. The Cardinal struggled even greater in that area with 24 turnovers and an astounding 35% TO mark.

Johnny Dawkins' Pac 12 representatives did pound the boards with a 50% offensive rebounding percentage. Syracuse was close behind with 47% led by Fab Melo with 5 offensive boards, and the versatile Joseph adding four.

Syracuse -- specifically Jim Boeheim -- fans

Stanford's Josh Owens a 14 points per game scorer, struggled with a 4 point (2 of 7 shooting) performance in 31 minutes.

A satisfying tournament for Syracuse. Not only due to taking home the championship but facing two good teams, Virginia Tech in the semis and Stanford in the final. In the latter contest, how Syracuse pulled it out was very gratifying. Now, it's back to the offensive 'drawing board'.

Coaches Johnny Dawkins and Jim Boeheim post game

The consolation gave us a hard fought one possession contest.

The pace and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Oklahoma State	56	102
Virginia Tech	61	97

Two major keys here. Travis Ford's teams like to get out and push the pace. Virginia Tech favors a half court environment and Seth Greenberg's group dictated tempo. Oklahoma State entered the game averaging 72 possessions and were held to 16 less than their norm. On the afternoon, Oklahoma state was limited to two fast break points.

Other big factor was the offensive glass. Virginia Tech started slow looking at an 8-0 deficit after the first four minutes. The Hokies continued to work inside and gradually wore down the Cowboys. Virginia Tech had a 48-37% advantage in offensive rebounding percentage. Dorian Finney-Smith, a 6-8 forward, did appreciable damage for tech with 8 offensive rebounds.

Tech, interestingly, only shot 35% eFG percentage. Given their rebounding edge and a tidy 18% TO rate, it's not a huge surprise they were able to pull this contest out and exit MSG with that well earned split.

The Honors (with their final game Manley efficiency):

MOP	Kris Joseph, Syracuse	22
All Tournament Team:	Dion Waiters, Syracuse	10
	C. J. Fair, Syracuse	12
	Aaron Bright, Stanford	13
	Erick Green, Virginia Tech	11

Markel Brown of Oklahoma State was not selected to the All-Tournament team but did lead the consolation game scorers with 19 points. His Manley efficiency checked in at an impressive 23 (largely due to the sophomore guard's 10 rebounds).

'Stat Stuffer' Melo
Fab Melo, Syracuse's sophomore center drew praise for his play in the final. The seven-footer played 32 minutes and scored 6 points (3 of 6 shooting) with 9 rebounds, 3 blocks and 3 steals. His final Manley efficiency, a very commendable 16. Second on the Orange in the championship game.

Street view from the pressroom,
New York on Black Friday

Maalik Wayns Named to Wooden Award Watch List

The Bob Cousy Award
The Villanova Athletic Department and the Los Angeles Athletic Club made simultaneous announcements this afternoon that junior point guard Maalik Wayns had been named to the 2011 Preseason Wooden Award Watch List. Maalik follows in the footsteps of Corey Fisher, Scottie Reynolds and Randy Foye, Villanova guards who have been named to the Watch List in previous preseasons. A total of 10 players (two each from Connecticut and Syracuse) were named to the list released earlier this afternoon. They include...

Player	Pos	Class	School
Jeremy Lamb	F	So	Connecticut
Alex Oriakhi	F/C	Jr	Connecticut
Peyton Siva	PG	Jr	Louisville
Darius Johnson-Odom	G	Sr	Marquette
Tim Abromaitis	F	GS	Notre Dame
Ashton Gibbs	PG	Sr	Pittsburgh
Scoop Jardine	G	Sr	Syracuse
Kris Joseph	F	Jr	Syracuse
Maalik Wayns	PG	Sr	Villanova
Kevin Jones	F	Sr	West Virginia

The Big East contingent is, as usual, contains a large portion of senior & 5th year nominees. Abromaitis, along with DJO, Gibbs, Jardine, Jones, Siva and Joseph have all been named to conference teams (or honorable mentions) in 2011. Jeremy Lamb, named to the conference Rookie Team, played on the U19 team that competed for the U19 World Championship last summer in Latvia.

Other Nominees of Interest
From the Atlantic-10 Conference, Andrew Nicholson (St. Bonaventure) and Tu Holloway (Xavier) were also recognized.

Congratulations Maalik
& all of the nominees

Syracuse Post Game: Streaks

Bombs Away!
Both Villanova and Syracuse entered the game eager to break the streak each had begun with their last outing. A streak of the losing kind. For both the number stood at one and neither wanted to see it go to two. Villanova played to their offensive and defensive numbers in the first half, establishing an 11 point (40-29) lead going into the intermission. The last 20 minutes, an offensive festival for both (or a clinic on how to deconstruct the other team's defense?), saw the two Top 10 teams match point-for-point to the end of the game, ended at 83-72, with Villanova's 11 point first half cushion intact.

Forward Kris Joseph, back from an injury that sidelined him for Syracuse's loss to Pittsburgh, scored his game-high 23 points on 8-15 overall shooting, and 3-5 from the line. Senior Forward/Center Rick Jackson recorded a double-double (16 points and 15 rebounds) in the losing cause. Villanova was paced by sophomore guard Maalik Wayns, who scored 21 points on 6-11 shooting and 5-5 from the line in a nice bounce-back from his performance in Storrs Monday. The two Coreys, Stokes and Fisher, scored 16 points apiece, while senior forward Antonio Pena, the fourth Wildcats to score 10 or more points, chipped in 10 points and a team-high seven rebounds in the winning effort.

The blogosphere registered a few post games, including "postgame -- Villanova 83 Syracuse 72" from the Nova Blog and VUHoops.com posted their recap with a poll for player grades. Best I can tell the polls are still open, so go over and vote if you are inclined. All's quiet in the Orange blogosphere, a commentary-less series of videos from the Troy Nunes...blog (complemented by a commentary on 3 pointers) and some post game musings from Otto's Army excepted. The Athletic Department website posted the official boxscore and the AP wire story, "No. 7 Wildcats Overpower No. 3 Syracuse, 83-72", led off with Villanova's three point "zone busting" shooting, and followed with the crowd size. There are a handful of good quotes from Corey Fisher as well. The breakdown by halves...

Opponent:		Syracuse University
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	33.9	32.2	66.1
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	118.1	133.6	125.7		85.6	133.6	109.0
eFG%	72.0	50.0	61.0		46.3	55.7	51.6
TORate	20.7	9.3	15.8		25.8	20.7	24.2
OR%	11.1	43.8	32.0		25.0	61.1	44.1
FTA/FGA	16.0	80.0	48.0		22.2	17.1	19.4
FTM/FGA	16.0	72.0	44.0		14.8	11.4	12.9
ARate	64.3	45.5	56.0		80.0	41.2	55.6
Blk%	14.8	4.0	12.0		7.4	2.9	4.8
Stl%	5.7	3.2	6.3		8.6	5.9	7.3
PPWS	1.49	1.25	1.35		0.97	1.14	1.06
2FG%	50.0	57.1	53.8		29.4	63.2	47.2
3FG%	61.5	27.3	45.8		50.0	31.3	38.5
FT%	100.0	90.0	91.7		66.7	66.7	66.7
%2FG	30.0	37.2	33.7		34.5	55.8	47.2
%3FG	60.0	20.9	39.8		51.7	34.9	41.7
%FT	10.0	41.9	26.5		13.8	9.3	11.1

Green highlighting identifies the good elements of Villanova's game yesterday, while red highlighting identifies elements that are below the levels the team has played to to date. Pace was the second surprise. I believed the 'Cats would push at every opportunity, preventing the Orange from getting into the 2-3 zone. 66.1 possessions is a pace Syracuse should have wanted -- it suggests Villanova would have to score out of offensive sets, and not transition. The box score confirms the Wildcats scored four points (only -- all in the second half) on fast breaks, with two coming on Maurice Sutton's jam at the end of the game.

Same Result, Two Paths
The yellow highlighting on the teams' second half ratings and four factors shows how the same efficiency can be attained by different means. Both teams scored 43 points on (about) 32 possessions, but each employed different methods to attain their result. Villanova did not convert shots as efficiently as the Orange (50.0% vs. 55.7% eFG% above), but the Wildcats limited turnovers (9.3% vs. 20.7%) and got to the line more frequently (80.0% vs. 17.1%). Though the Orange "won" in two of the four categories (offensive rebound rate -- 61.1% vs. 43.8% -- was the second category), those two were not enough to outscore the 'Cats in the second half and cut into their first half lead.

8 Minutes & 43 Seconds of the First Half...
At the 14:43 mark of the first half with the score 9-7 Syracuse, the Wildcats put on a run of nearly nine minutes during which they outscored the Orange 27-11 and built a 14 point lead (34-20) on 14 possessions...

	FGM	FGA	FTM	FTA	Pts	Poss	PPP	OReb	TO
Villanova	9	12	2	2	27	14	1.93	0	1
Syracuse	4	9	1	2	11	13	0.85	0	3

The best sequence of possessions for Villanova in the game (1.93 points per possession equates to a 193.0 offensive rating), but actually typical for the entire first half for Syracuse (see "By Halves" table at top). Villanova was a deadly 6-7 from beyond the arc, scoring 21 of the 27 points in the run from that distance, including two streaks of 3-3 from beyond the arc. Though the Orange would outscore the Wildcats 9-6 to close out the first half, they would play virtually the entire second half from a 6-to-14 point hole, sustaining a single rally that cut Villanova's lead to four only once, at the 2:41 mark of the second half.

Records, Next Up...
Villanova upped it's to 17-2 overall, 5-1 in conference, remaining a single game off of Pittsburgh's pace. The Wildcats play their third consecutive road game next Wednesday at Providence. Syracuse dropped it's second game running, putting the Orange at 18-2 overall, and 5-2 in conference play. The Orange will host Seton Hall on Tuesday.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Syracuse at St. John's

by Ray Floriani
NEW YORK CITY- It had the billing of a conference showdown. Fourth ranked and undefeated Syracuse visiting a St. John's team, once again starting to get local attention. In the end the Orange showed why they are a top five team and national contender, posting a 76-59 over St. John's at Madison Square Garden.

Thanks Mother Nature!

Both teams entered in the mid-sixty possession range. Syracuse ignited their transition, found open floor opportunities and especially the latter part of the first half and the entire second, attacked the basket.

Outside MSG on a chilly night

The efficiency numbers:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Syracuse	70	109
St. John's	71	83

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Syracuse	66	9	32	29
St. John's	39	26	30	23

The Garden, media time out

Interestingly both teams entered with a TO rate under 20%. That was not the case tonight. The two clubs struggled with turnovers. The Syracuse number was exceptionally high. But when you limit the opposition to 39% eFG percentage, that is something of a trade off.

Syracuse kept close watch on St. John's guard Dwight Hardy. He scored 12 points but was 4 of 15 from the floor.

St. John's got inside of the patented Syracuse 2-3 early. Eventually adjustments are made and when the Red Storm was forced to take more perimeter looks they had no answer shooting 2 of 12 from beyond the arc.

Brandon Triche and Kris Joseph did the offensive damage for Syracuse. Triche scored 15 and was effective inside or beyond the arc. The sophomore guard was 6 of 11 from the floor including 3 of 6 from three. Joseph netted 18 points on 8 of 11 shooting and added 5 boards.

Rick Jackson had another solid effort that is distinguishing him as one of the conference's better interior players. Jackson enjoyed a double-double with 12 points 10 rebounds.

Syracuse led 36-32 in points in the paint as most of the Red Storm points were produced there or on the line. Orange held a notable 12-4 edge in transition points.

Jim Boeheim of Syracuse praised his club's defensive effort, especially when the offense took time getting in gear.

Steve Lavin of St. John's was pleased with some of the things the Red Storm did, controlling the first 12 minutes and building a seven point lead. 'Sustain', was the key word as Lavin noted you need a 40 minute effort when battling a number four ranked team with the talent of Syracuse.

Syracuse shot 5 of 8 from the line compared to St. John's 15 of 20. You can't foul what you can't catch. Orange had a number of transition opportunities the second half and were able to get great open inside looks even in half court. As a result, fewer trips to the line

Numbers
Syracuse improved to 17-0 (4-0 Big East). St. John's is still a very respectable 10-5 (3-2). Syracuse had four players in double figures led by Kris Joseph with 18 points. Attendance was 14,440. St. John's was led by Justin Brownlee with 13 points. Dwayne Polee II was the only Storm starter to shoot over 50% from the floor. The freshman forward scored 7 points on 3 of 4 shooting. A good turnout following a storm that dropped 10-15 inches in the tri-state area.

Steve Lavin discusses the game with the media

2010-11 Preview -- Syracuse Orange

Too Busy for the Details?
The returning numbers look better than they did going intothe 2010 season...the Orange finished #1 in the conference (regular season) and pulled down a #1 seed in the NCAAs. How can they do better than that? They can't. A solid nucleus is back (but not the senior leadership from last season) and the Orange have the preseason conference ROY, but they will not equal the conference win total nor the finish of 2010. But they can come close.  Prognosis -- A 2nd quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance
Funny how things work out. A far more talented team returned in 2009, but could not do what the Orange of 2010 achieved. Having Wes Johnson practice with the team for an entire year (NCAA transfer rule) certainly made his transition into Coach Boeheim's system a good deal smoother than a (however talented...) freshman or a JUCO. One of those facets I think is overlooked when considering the impact of a newcomer.

	Returning...
	2011	2010	2009
%Min	55.9	44.1	72.5
%Pts	41.7	44.1	49.5
%FGM	53.0	45.1	70.7
%3FGM	38.9	45.3	49.5
%OReb	57.3	47.1	82.9
%DReb	51.0	47.3	72.5
%TReb	53.0	47.2	75.9

Returning a higher percentage of the minutes, field goals made and rebounds (both ends of the court) than last season, but still comparatively low versus other Big East teams. Can the Orange replace scoring and perimeter shot making for the second season running? The 14% difference between returning minutes and returning points scored is a point of concern. Given the role of Wes Johnson and Andy Rautins in the offense, it is more likely that a committee (rather than 1-2 players) will have to step into that role in the offense. Returning players accounted for some very efficient scoring last season, the potential for a larger role in the offense is high, but newcomers will have to step into several critical areas of the offense and defense.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2009-10		2008-09		2007-08
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Off Eff Conf	110.9	4	109.9	4	103.7	9
Def Eff Conf	99.2	1	101.7	6	102.0	6
Eff Diff Conf	11.7	2	8.2	7	1.7	8
Off eFG Conf	53.7	2	54.5	2	50.4	7
Off TOv Conf	20.6	14	20.2	13	21.2	13
Off OReb Conf	38.3	3	35.6	5	36.7	3
Off FTA/FGA Conf	41.2	7	34.9	6	44.8	2

John Gasaway over at the Basketball Prospectus did a great job of using the stats to show why Syracuse had a great season and I would strongly recommend the reader spend the $10 (more or less) to download the 2010-11 (digital) edition and read the excellent analysis provided for all of the 345 Division I teams. The dramatic improvement of the defense (largely Coach Boeheim's trademark 2-3 zone) is clearly the driver that brought the Orange (back) into the conference elite. The guru formerly known as the Big Ten Wonk did a tremendous job breaking down the defensive numbers (Dean Oliver's four factors played a large role...), but he did leave a crumb or two for me to chew on offensively, and share with the reader. While not "the explanation" for why the Orange did so well, something to consider when Syracuse is working the other side of the ball. Shot efficiency improved from 2008 to 2009, the crucial element for the Orange's two rank jump. While Syracuse maintained their #4 rank from 2009 to 2010, the methods employed to maintain that rank varied. Note shot efficiency (eFG) rank stayed constant even though the actual number declined very slightly. The Orange saw an increase (also modest) in their turnover rate (TOv) and a rather dramatic rise in their ability to get to the free throw line (even though they dropped one rank there as well). The improvement in offensive rebounding (credit to Onuaku and Jackson here) offset the declines elsewhere, suggesting that for the Cuse, offensive rebounding was relatively important. Getting to the line to finish a possession, and nabbing the offensive miss to keep the possession alive more than offset the decline in shot conversion and the modes rise in turnovers. Maintaining a dominant defense will be critical to success in 2011. Offensively, can the Orange improve on their turnovers and shoot better than they did in 2010? A backslide in either will have to be offset by an improvement in offensive rebounding (or getting to the line even more...). Both of those stats however, may be, given the players, pretty close to their "ceiling" already.

	For the Record...
	2009-10			2008-09			2007-08
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	30	5	0.857	28	10	0.737	21	14	0.600
Big East	15	3	0.833	11	7	0.611	9	9	0.500
Post Season?	NCAA Rnd #3			NCAA Rnd #3			NIT Rnd #3

The Orange Nucleus
Coach Jim Boeheim had a tremendous squad to coach last season, one he obviously enjoyed working with. Syracuse will return starters and contributors in both the front and back courts; the question is whether a combination of the returnees and newcomers can duplicate the chemistry and replace the scoring (and rebounds) from last season.

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
Kris Joseph	69.6	111.1	19.6	18.4	50.8	7.7	1.14	59.8
Rick Jackson	65.7	108.6	19.6	19.0	59.1	12.7	1.16	34.1
Scoop Jardine	55.6	113.6	22.6	20.7	53.4	1.9	1.15	39.5
Brandon Triche	53.4	106.5	20.8	18.5	58.0	3.8	1.19	41.0
Mookie Jones	12.8	118.2	22.4	27.9	63.2	6.3	1.26	19.4
DaShonte Riley	11.2	90.0	11.6	6.6	60.0	6.4	1.14	73.3

Note the Poss% above -- having five efficient players (ORtgs >105) with Poss% in the range of (high-end) Role Player and (low-end) Significant Contributor (Ken Pomeroy's ratings) is a bit unusual. There is "growth" for all, though looking at Possession rates for Johnson (21.4), Rautins (19.0) and Onuaku (19.2), as Gasaway points out in his preview/analysis is a bit deceptive given that Johnson and Rautins saw far more court time than anyone else on the squad. That difference leaves a modest possessions vacuum that a committee (most likely) will have to cover. Many previewers tab forward Kris Joseph as the strongest breakout candidate, but note that junior guard Scoop Jardine and junior bfc Rick Jackson will most likely be called on early (given their seniority) to step up. Sophomore point guard Brandon Triche will most likely earn more time if he can cut down on his turnover rate, high enough to negate his good assist rate. Sophomore Mookie Jones showed (in albeit very limited minutes) the highest efficiency/usage numbers on the squad, but, like the possession-based stats of Rautins and Johnson, probably distorted by (in Jones' case) the comparatively small amount of playing time. He should see more minutes in 2011, but will face stiff competition from the other returning front court players (and the freshmen). Among the post Midnight Madness casualties, DaShonte Riley may red shirt this season, pending the results of foot surgery announced at Syracuse Media Day. The injury is not tracable to a specific incident, may go back to last season. Riley could expect to see his minutes expand with the departure of Arinze Onuaku, but should he decide to sit and rehabilitate this season, Jackson and two freshmen (see below) can expect to fill the gap.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Kris Joseph	69.6	13.7	10.2	18.2	1.6	2.8
Rick Jackson	65.7	16.5	11.2	21.2	8.2	2.2
Scoop Jardine	55.6	7.2	32.5	21.4	0.3	3.0
Brandon Triche	53.4	5.3	21.7	25.7	0.3	2.3
Mookie Jones	12.8	10.0	13.0	16.8	2.4	3.8
DaShonte Riley	11.2	11.4	10.2	36.9	11.1	0.7

Everyone of the returning players listed has a double digit assist rate, unusual and a strong sign of the "share and share alike" philosophy in 2010. While the turnover rates were also a bit high (especially freshman point guard Brandon Triche and low post reliever DaShonta Riley), but given the strong efficiency ratings, those turnovers were not a significant drag on Syracuse's overall offensive efficiency (best in conference). Among the other rotation/bench players returning, sophomore front court player James Southerland, Nick Resavy (a Junior), Griffin Hoffmann a sophomore guard, Matt Lyde-Cajust -- a sophomore forward and junior guard Brandon Reese.

Significant Additions
The Orange faithful will see seven new faces at various times this season, six of which belong to freshmen and one to a Division II transfer. Both Fab Melo, a 7-0, 240 pound center "imported" from Brazil and 6-4, 215 pound Dion Waiters figure to make the earliest and most favorable impressions. Expect Melo to start alongside Rick Jackson, giving the Orange one of the tallest (and more block-forward) front courts in the conference. When Waiters is in the back court with either Triche or Jardine, expect him to take the off guard role in the offense. Noted as a scorer, Waiters will have to supply some of the three point firepower provided for (four of the past five years) by Rautins. The wing will see CJ Fair compete with Jones, and Joseph for minutes on the wing. The 6-7, 195 #3 tore an ACL in the summer of his (HS) junior year, and is still developing as a player. More an athlete and transition scorer than a set shooter or low post player, he will be valued for his ability to crash the glass and put back. Well regarded but nevertheless a work in progress, 6-11 210 pound Senegal native Baye Moussa Keita will most likely follow Arinze Onuaku's development path and show shot blocking and rebounding skills before he assumes a more assertive role in the offense. 5-10 point guard Nolan Hart out of Albany, NY and 6-4 back court player Russ DeRemer, son of a Syracuse rower, round out the true freshmen. Junior transfer Matt Tomaszewski, a 6-8 215 pound #3/#4 who logged two seasons at the University of Tampa before coming in and sitting for hte 2009-10 season. He will have two years of eligibility beginning this season and should provide even more front court depth.

Explode If...
1. Find a replacement for Andy Rautins and Arinze Onuaku. Though unacknowledged, the Cuse that played through the first three rounds of the NCAAs was not the team that swept through the Big East (and their out of conference schedule). The two senior leaders anchored the squad, set the tone and provided a lot of confidence to the other five players who made up the "regular" rotation. Onuaku's absence was obvious from the first round on. Both seniors took (at different times) red shirt seasons for injuries, and so were associated with the program for five, rahter than four seasons. They saw good and bad times and set, along with Johnson, an example for unselfish play. Statistically replacing Rautins' threes, Johnson's driving scores and Onuaku's rebounds will not be as difficult as replacing their leadership.
2. Kris Joseph and Rick Jackson have great seasons. Both have shown the abilty to score efficiently in (relatively) smaller offensive roles. They will have to "grow" those roles from (about) a 19% possession rate to about 24% while still able to score efficiently. Jackson, outstanding on the offensive glass is merely very good for defensive boards. He will have to, despite Fab Melo's presence contribute more on toward defensive rebounds as well.
3. Fab Melo and Dion Waiters (and CJ Fair) live up to preseason expectations.

Implode If...
1. Chemistry issues within the squad and individual agendas have historically given the Orange faithful squads whose whole was less than the sum of the individual parts. Last season was the diametric opposite and frankly a pleasure to watch (except when they were pansing the Wildcats in front of a national audience...). Hopefully the returning players learned the lesson and will continue the example this season.
2. Injuries. Though this is a deeper squad (and should run a deeper rotation than 2010), losing key players or a combination of several players from among Joseph, Jardine (who was lost for a season already), Jackson and Triche could spell big problems. Riley is already sidelined for at least some part of (if not the whole) season.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
Syracuse's first road trip will be a run down to Atlantic City, NJ for Thanksgiving Weekend at the Legends Classic. The three other teams in the field, Michigan (Syracuse's first opponent), and UTEP or Georgia Tech in the second game, will provide national exposure and experience on a neutral court, but not much by way of competition. The challenge of the out of conference (OOC) will come December 7 in Madison Square (the Jimmy V Classic) against Michigan State. This should be a great game as the Sparten back court should match up well against the Cuse rotation. Something of a baptism of fire for Dion Waiters and Triche/Jardine. 13-0 (hardly pie-in-the-sky) would put the Orange squarely on the national radar going into Big East play. Anything short of 11-2 would suggest a tougher go through the conference than many previews foresee.

Mirrors dealt to the Cuse this time around include traditional rival Georgetown, Villanova (third time in four seasons) and traditional whipping boy, Seton Hall. Play with the Hoyas and Pirates should be very interesting, because preseason projections have clustered those three, and for those who put the Orange in the first quartile, Villanova (and Georgetown?) would be head-to-head quartile rivals. Against Seton Hall, Syracuse will have to continue to dominate to maintain the upper hand in any head-to-head comparisons. Ditto for Georgetown and Villanova. Going 6-0 would be quite a season, but a very remote possibility. 4-2 would be a positive result, though 3-3 might be more realistic. Opening the Big East regular season with a two game homestand (hosting Providence and Notre Dame) should put the Orange up 2-0. The last seven games in January should be telling for Syracuse's prospects. The Orange take to the road for two games, Seton Hall and St. John's...in Queens (Coach Lavin's no fool), return home to host Cincinnati, run down to Pittsburgh for a date with the Panthers (very important, their only meeting with Pitt), back to the Carrier Dome for another two game homestand (Villanova and closeout with mirror Seton Hall) and finally back on the road for three games, the first with Marquette. Going 4-3 or better is mandatory if the Orange harbor visions of finishing in the first quartile (five or fewer losses are typical for double bye teams), because the backend of their schedule will have them play the Hoyas twice, host West Virginia and face Louisville and Villanova on the road. That run in Frebruary will most likely yield a minimum of two losses, and quite possibly one or two additional.

Corey Fisher Named to 2011 Wooden Award Watch List

The Los Angeles Athletic Club released their official John R. Wooden Award preseason Top 50 Candidates list. The compilation is based on last season's individual performance and the candidates' team records. The LAAC release identifies these 50 as the early frontrunners for the Wooden Award. While several Big Ten "returning candidates" received specific mention, the Big East placed seven on the list, tied for third (with the Big 12) among the conferences (10 from the Big Ten, eight from the ACC). Of interest to Big East fans:

Corey Fisher, Villanova
Austin Freeman, Georgetown
Ashton Gibbs, Pittsburgh
Jeremy Hazell, Seton Hall
Kris Joseph, Syracuse
Brandon Triche, Syracuse
Kemba Walker, Connecticut

Of interest to Big 5 fans:

Lavoy Allen, Temple
Corey Fisher, Villanova

Of interest to A-10 fans:

Lavoy Allen, Temple
Kevin Anderson, Richmond
Chris Wright, Dayton

Congratulations to Corey
& all of the Wooden Award List Nominees!

Rising Juniors -- Nine to Watch

What We Are Looking For
The Big East Conference made this job a lot more difficult back in 2007 when they increased the size of their season-ending "All-Big East...Team"s from five (the traditional number) to eleven. Toss in the three or so Honorable Mentions, and the number of recognized players goes to 25 or so, up from the 15 - 18 most conferences recognize (three "All" Teams, not including a Freshman/Rookie Team, plus two - three Honorable Mentions). The Big East switched back in 2008-09, giving me another seven to eight players to consider for this list. Using Pomeroy's classification system as a guide, I am scouting the "Role" or "Significant Contributor" player, someone who took about 16%-23% of their team's possessions last season, but could grow into a "Major Contributor" or "Go-to Guy" player over the course of the course of next season -- though most probably won't. Pomeroy discusses growth "probabilities" in "Putting Individual Efficiency into Perspective" over at The Basketball Prospectus back in 2007. One thing about these players is clear -- they tend to push at the upper limit of their growth curve each season.

			On Offense...
Player	Coll	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	PPWS
Kevin Jones	WVU	81.2	124.6	18.5	21.5	1.18
Jeff Robinson	Hall	50.1	118.8	19.1	20.9	1.14
Terrence Jennings	LVL	31.6	116.1	18.3	18.6	1.22
Kris Joseph	Cuse	69.6	111.1	19.6	18.4	1.14
Jordan Theodore	Hall	64.5	109.5	19.1	17.7	1.04
Darius Johnson-Odom	MU	73.1	107.0	22.9	24.2	1.16
Yancy Gates	'Nati	62.8	106.9	21.3	22.7	1.07
Augustus Gilchrist	USF	38.1	104.8	25.3	24.6	1.16
Darryl Bryant	WVU	55.0	102.7	23.9	21.4	1.00

The list contains the last member of the Big East's All-Rookie Team from 2009 still in school, Cincinnati's Yancy Gates. Every one else from that team has departed for life in the pros. Gates, whose time with the Bearcats has featured an off-and-on relationship with Head Coach Mick Cronin, found himself, more often than not, the 3^rd last season, and that step back allowed him to trade efficiency for usage, a common trade-off. With seniors Deonta Vaughn and Steven Toyloy graduated, and Lance Stephenson gone in the draft last June, the opportunity to step forward and play a major role in the fate of this team this season is there -- if Gates can stay out of foul trouble (he averaged about 3.8 fouls per 40 minutes last season, per Ken Pomeroy) and maintain or enhance his efficiency even as he takes a larger share of the possessions and shots. The offensively challenged Bearcats (a recurring theme in Coach Cronin's tenure), will have to look to a committee of veteran players, centered on Gates no doubt (and freshman pf Justin Jackson?), to make up for the departed offense. With the spotlight on senior Da'Sean Butler and All Big East Devin Ebanks, more than a few observers missed 6-8 250 lb bfc Kevin Jones, yet he played a crucial role in Coach Huggins' Four Forwards Offense. Though guard-like duties fell to Butler and one of Truck Bryant (see below) or Joe Mazzulla if they were available, Jones proved to be extremely efficient in a just-out-of-the-limelight "Role" player status. Jones was the 3^rd option on offense, but like Gates, two of the bigger options ahead of him last season, Butler and Ebanks, have moved on. Coach Huggins recognized his value, playing Jones a whopping 81% of the time in 2010. Jones' teammate Darryl Bryant should see his possession and shot rates climb this season as well. Bryant, whose effectiveness may have been compromised by personal and health issues in 2010, has the potential to see his role in the offense expand to "Major Contributor" (Poss% 25%-28%) levels, but will have to improve his shot conversion and limit his turnover rate, if he expects to see his efficiency (and playing time) climb. Seton Hall's Jeff Robinson is one of four JUCO/transfers on this list. Times change -- there was a point in time when transfer "stars" were so rare they often drew special attention from the media and coaching staffs. Though he did not qualify for play until the end of the Fall 2009 Semester, Robinson was so effective during the conference portion of the Hall's schedule that he sent starter Robert Mitchell to the bench. Robinson, along with teammates Herb Pope (also a transfer) & Jeremy Hazell, flirted briefly with the NBA draft, but (all) decided to return to South Orange for another season. Recruited by departed coach Bobby Gonzalez, Robinson is a 'tweener, who has the size of a #2/#3 with the skill set of a slasher. He will see even more floor time this season if his defensive rebounding matched his offensive board work (see below). Robinson's teammate and fellow "Watch List"er Jordan Theodore should see a larger role in the offense now that Eugene Harvey and Keon Lawrence have moved on. Theodore has much the same conversion deficiency as Truck Bryant, but without the turnovers and other baggage Bryant may carry.

			Four Factors...
						FTA
Player	Coll	%Min	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
Kevin Jones	WVU	81.2	57.6	12.0	10.9	28.5
Jeff Robinson	Hall	50.1	54.3	9.2	8.5	35.0
Terrence Jennings	'Ville	31.6	61.7	13.6	17.4	34.8
Kris Joseph	Cuse	69.6	50.8	7.7	18.2	59.8
Jordan Theodore	Hall	64.5	47.5	3.0	16.2	37.8
Darius Johnson-Odom	MU	73.1	56.4	2.0	18.1	28.7
Yancy Gates	'Nati	62.8	52.2	11.0	15.1	30.3
Augustus Gilchrist	USF	38.1	52.4	9.3	20.0	54.5
Darryl Bryant	WVU	55.0	42.4	2.7	21.6	56.0

A summer ago Coach Rick Pitino tabbed Terrence Jennings "the key" to Cardinal success in 2010. Though he brought energy to the line-up, Jennings was unable to develop a tandem playing relationship with Samardo Samuels, and found himself behind the more heralded bfc in the rotation. Though Jennings offered efficient scoring and a dominant rebounding presence, especially on the offensive boards, he did not establish much more than a "role" presence on offense. Sam-Sam moved on to the NBA this past June, and ready or not, he has passed the low post baton onto Jennings. Pomeroy's 50% confidence interval suggests Jennings should grow into a "Major Contributor" role this season (in the range of 21%-24% of the possessions/shots), but given the personnel loss, should Jennings blow up, a "Significant Contributor" role, something just north of 25% is possible. As a high-end "Role Player", Jennings has shown he can be very efficient (111.8-116.1); if he can maintain his efficiency level while expanding his role in the offense, he will definitely make an All-Big East Team or two. Then if he is around in the summer of 2011, I will not be able to include him on my Rising Seniors "Watch" List. Kris Joseph is yet another example of how team work was so successful for Syracuse last season. Distribution -- of possessions and shots among the players on the floor -- was atypical for a F1 team, but extremely effective for the Orange. Joseph's Poss% and Shot% put him at the upper edge of "Role Player". Johnson, Rautins and Onuaku have moved on, and given Kris' growth in role and efficiency over the past two seasons, he is on track to become a "Major Contributor" next season. Usage growth has gone hand-in-hand with improvement of efficiency, a good sign for Joseph and Syracuse in 2011.

		Miscellaneous...
Player	Coll	Ast%	DR%	Blk%	Stl%
Kevin Jones	WVU	7.2	13.0	3.1	1.1
Jeff Robinson	Hall	3.4	12.9	2.1	1.4
Terrence Jennings	'Ville	5.8	15.3	10.2	2.5
Kris Joseph	Cuse	10.2	13.7	1.6	2.8
Jordan Theodore	Hall	22.4	6.4	0.9	3.2
Darius Johnson-Odom	MU	17.0	9.2	0.6	1.8
Yancy Gates/td>	'Nati	7.4	15.2	3.7	1.3
Augustus Gilchrist	USF	4.2	14.6	3.4	0.5
Darryl Bryant	WVU	25.2	7.7	0.1	1.8

The log-jam in Marquette's back court going into the 2009-10 season was big enough to convince senior Maurice Acker to forego his spot on the roster and concentrate on completing his studies. With two transfers (one a returning native son), a true, and much heralded, local freshman and second returning senior combo guard, it was easy to see why Ackers thought to stand aside. I had to wonder where a second promising transfer, Darius Johnson-Odom, would fit. Preseason injuries to Cadougan (who later returned to play 12 games at the end of the season) and Johnson-Odom were enough to bring Acker back to the squad where he had a very good senior campaign (ranked #1 in conference for assist-to-turnover ratio and #1 for 3FGM%). A quickly recovered Johnson-Odom completed the accidental back court, becoming a fixture alongside a combination of Acker, Cubillan and/or Buycks. He proved to be a good combo guard, sliding over to the off guard where could find his shot (eFG% -- 56.4%) both inside and outside (ranked #7 in conference for 3 pointers made) when Acker manned the #1, and then over to the lead guard spot when Cubillan or Buycks came in. Johnson-Odom had a respectable (per Ken Pomeroy), though not Top 500 assist rate, suggesting he will move back and forth in the Buzz Williams' back court again this season. Normally I cut off candidates at about the 40% Mins line, but (like Louisville's Terrence Jennings...) Augustus Gilchrist made an good argument for setting that guideline aside. Gus completed his first year in Tampa by showing the Bulls' faithful that he could be a dominant (though inefficient) front court presence when he saw the court. Efficiency, under the right circumstances, could be improved, so 2010 held serious promise for the Bulls and Gilchrist. An early December ankle sprain sidelined him until mid-February. He returned to help the Bulls close out their Big East regular season with a four game winning streak. Many assumed the 6-10 235 pound player would man the low post, but he seems to want to play more on the perimeter than the low blocks. Not a dominant defensive rebounder, Gus has shown he can block a shot when needed and dominate on the offensive boards. Over the past two seasons South Florida fans have seen enough to be excited about Gilchrist's potential. He made significant strides in shot and possession-to-point efficiency. If the big guy can manage to log an entire season with the Tampa school, his expected possession and shot rates this season could well land him in "Major Contributor" role in the Bulls' offense. With Jones departed for the NBA, and a number of new guards coming in to replenish Coach Heath's severely depleted back court, Gilchrist should become an "early and often" offensive option.

What About...?
DePaul's Devin Hill and Jeremiah Kelly were too inefficient with their shots last season, logging eFG%s in the low 40s. Greg Monroe's exit leaves a lot of shots and possessions to divvy up among the remaining (and entering) Hoyas. But Henry Sims, who entered as a freshman with Monroe (and was by some, better regarded), who saw his sophomore minutes diminish relative to his freshman season, would seem to be a poor candidate for a significant portion of those possessions/shots. His possession rate, 16%, may have grown modestly over his freshman rate (14.5), but there is a small probability that more than another 4%-5% will come his way (assuming he gets more minutes). Jason Clark, another Hoya who may potentially benefit (possessions and shots) from Greg Monroe's good fortune, made the "Freshmen Watch" list last August, and did increase his efficiency. But his role, as measured by possessions and shots, did not grow at all. Coach Thompson did not, even with a dominant low post presence like Monroe, experiment much with a rotation that put three under 6-5 guards on the floor at the same time. Lacking Monroe, I have to think Coach Thompson would be even less inclined to give that line-up extended run this season.

Hits and Misses...Last Season's "Rising Juniors"
Jimmy Butler and Austin Freeman drew "All-Big East"-level recognition (an Honorable Mention & 2^nd Team) and so are disqualified from consideration this off season -- remember we are looking for the guys just off the radar (congratulations to both). DePaul's Mac Koshwal declared for the draft again last April, went undrafted, but played for the Pistons in the NBA Summer League. Pitt's Brad Wanamaker, St. John's DJ Kennedy and Syracuse's Rick Jackson saw their efficiency and roles improve over the course of the 2010 season. For Wanamaker and Jackson, the efficiency improvement was good, but the growth in roles was comparatively small. Given Syracuse's relatively even distribution of touches and shots expect to see Jackon's role grow (modestly probably) again this season. Kennedy's role grew considerably, bordering on "Go-to Guy"-level possessions. Yet the rising senior drew no accolades from the conference. So I put him back on the Watch List (Rising Seniors) again this season. Louisville's Preston Knowles saw his role grow (possessions went from 16.9% to 21.9%), but his efficiency diminished (112.9 to 103.2), a more common phenomena than the both move in the same direction. Corey Stokes, Sean Evans and Marshon Brooks saw their roles remain about the same, while their efficiencies either declined (Evans) or increase (Stokes and Brooks). Brooks, like Kennedy, is pulling down near "Go-to Guy"-level possession and shot rates, so (like Kennedy) I put him back on the watch list. Stokes on the other hand drew middling "Role Player"-level possessions and shots in 2010, much as he had in 2009. There is a ceiling in the low 20s, but if he is going much higher, he will have to buck the trend.

Watch Lists by Class

Rising Seniors

Rising Sophomores -- Ten to Watch

The Big Jump
Common wisdom says the prime-time players (who don't jump to the league after their freshmen seasons...) take the biggest leap in their development during their sophomore season. I am not sure there is a single rule that dictates when a player makes his greatest strides. Some, like Dante Cunningham (Villanova, Class of 2009) and Hilton Armstrong (UConn, Class of 2006), see their roles grow with each season, but take the biggest (it seems) spurt in their senior season. Others make an impact their freshman seasons, but never seem to develop beyond that season (Edgar Sosa? Mike Nardi? Darryl Hill?). Like other "10 to Watch" postings, I am not listing All Big East Freshman Teamers, everyone knows who they are and will be watching/reporting on their every game. These overlooked ten might be on the threshold of a breakout season, or more likely solidify a starting spot on their team's roster. These players have a Big East season under their belts. They survived, put up some good (but not stud) numbers and are looking at opportunities to step into major roles with their teams this coming season.

On Offense...
Player	Team	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTR%
A Gibbs	Pitt	25.9	117.5	18.2	20.8	58.1	1.20	1.9	17.1
K Jones	WVU	48.1	113.6	16.7	19.5	50.3	1.02	10.7	23.7
Jennings	Ville	26.5	111.8	18.0	16.5	59.4	1.17	15.1	51.0
Echenique	RU	70.7	108.6	16.8	15.0	50.8	1.11	12.2	65.9
C Wright	GTown	81.0	107.8	21.9	22.0	53.7	1.15	1.2	41.1
D Dixon	Nati	54.1	104.1	19.2	20.5	45.4	0.98	6.4	33.3
Bryant	WVU	63.7	102.6	21.9	21.3	47.9	1.05	1.6	35.7
J Clark	GTown	45.1	100.3	17.2	16.1	57.0	1.22	7.2	31.3
K Joseph	Cuse	29.2	88.2	16.3	15.5	46.1	0.91	7.0	50.5
Gilchrist	USF	48.5	87.6	27.3	30.4	43.3	0.91	7.7	31.4

Ashton Gibbs and Terrence Jennings did not see the floor much at the start of the season. Gibbs was behind senior pg Levance Fields and sophomore Brad Wanamaker, while Jennings found Samardo Samuels and Earl Clark in front of him. Both worked themselves into the rotation by season's end. Jennings logged about 38% of the minutes at his position during the Big East season, while Gibbs spent July playing lead guard for his coach in the U19 World Championship Tournament in New Zealand, making up ground on the playing time he missed last season. Gibbs gained valuable experience he will be able to use early next season. He will split time and responsibilities with rising junior Brad Wanamaker and red shirt freshman Travon Woodall. Rutgers' Greg Echenique, efficient but under utilized on offense last season, will benefit from a distributor like transfer James Beatty at the point. Having a reliable 2nd and 3rd option on offense will work to All Big East Rookie teammate Mike Rosario's benefit, even if the gunner gets a few less touches. Darryl "Truck" Bryant is on this list even though he is currently suspended. Bryant, arrested twice within a one week period in June for (serious) traffic offenses, was suspended by Coach Bob Huggins, but has continued to live (and workout) in the Morgantown area over the summer. His 102.7 offensive rating is on the right side of 100, combined with possessions and shot percentages (%Poss and %Shot) above 21 suggest he can produce points (via shooting or assists) efficiently. His assist rate (Ast% -- 21.2) was top 400, though undermined by his high turnover rate (TO% -- 22.2) in a typically freshman sort of way. Given a full season that should improve (and help his ORtg, not to mention his team, considerably). Given both he and red shirt junior Joe Mazzulla (suspended in May, pending resolution on an unrelated assault charge), are both listed on West Virginia's latest roster, odds are excellent both will be re-instated before the season, if not by the Fall practice in mid-October.

On Defense...
Player	Team	%Min	DR%	%Ast	TO%	%Blk	%Stls
Ashton Gibbs	Pitt	25.9	5.4	13.7	19.3	0.3	0.8
Kevin Jones	WVU	48.1	18.2	6.7	9.6	3.8	1.9
Terrence Jennings	Ville	26.5	11.6	3.8	16.3	13.7	2.3
Gregory Echenique	RU	70.7	20.6	4.5	16.8	8.1	1.5
Chris Wright	GTown	81.0	9.5	25.1	20.4	0.3	2.1
Dion Dixon	Nati	54.1	9.7	12.5	16.3	0.8	1.4
Darryl Bryant	WVU	63.7	6.7	21.2	22.2	0.1	1.3
Jason Clark	GTown	45.1	10.0	9.0	29.1	1.1	2.2
K Joseph	Cuse	29.2	11.9	6.1	20.2	1.8	3.7
Augustus Gilchrist	USF	48.5	12.9	5.4	16.2	4.2	0.7

At 6-10 and 235 pounds Gus Gilchrist drew a lot of attention last season. With nearly 28% of the possessions and taking (just) over 30% of the shots when he was on the floor, he was taking a "Go-to Guy"-level role in the Bulls offense. But he was not converting possessions into points very efficiently (about .88 points per possession, below the Bulls team .95 ppp). I got the feeling Gilchrist wanted to play more #4 than #5, and with Jarrid Famous, a classic back-to-the-basket type #5 to bolster returning rising senior Alex Sanchez at the #5, Gilchrist may be able to play facing the basket on offense. For a real break through season however, in addition to improving his shot selection (and accuracy) Gilchrist will have to step up his rebounding. Though he had another year of eligibility, DaJuan Summers moved on, handing Hoya wing Jason Clark one of those opportunities to blossom. Georgetown needs rebounding under both baskets -- something Clark did not demonstrate an instinct for last season. Cincinnati's Dion Dixon on the other hand, will face very stiff competition for minutes. With redshirt freshman Cashmire Wright taking the point, All-Big East Teamer Deonta Vaughn will most likely move out to the wing. Between Vaughn and incoming wing Lance Stephenson, Dixon will have to produce early and often to secure a spot in the Bearcat rotation. Kris Josephs' situation at Syracuse bears similarity to both Gibbs/Jennings and Clark/Dixon. Like Gibbs/Jennings Joseph did not draw a lot of minutes in 2009, but the Orange lost 3 starters in the off season, virtually guaranteeing that Joseph will draw an opportunity to compete for a larger role with the team. But Joseph will get competition from transfer Wesley Johnson, red shirt freshman Mookie Jones and true freshman James Southerland.


And Then There's...
The Big East All Freshmen Team, Yancy Gates, Kemba Walker, Greg Monroe, Samardo Samuels, Mike Rosario and Devin Ebanks, will no doubt have great seasons. If all goes as anticipated, a few (Greg Monroe? Devin Ebanks?) will likely put in for the NBA draft next June.

DePaul's Jeremiah Kelly will draw more duty at the point this season, now that senior Jabari Currie has moved on. Currie was hobbled with turnover problems for his entire career, that Kelly could not move past him last season was disappointing. When Malik Boothe was sidelined with injuries last season Quincy Roberts was one of several freshmen who stepped into the breech. Less than stellar shooting was further undermined by turnovers. This season Roberts will compete with 2 more freshmen and a transfer for playing time (not to mention 3 returning players) in the back court/wing. I have closed an eye to playing time for a handful of rising sophomores, but Louisville's Jared Swopshire & George Goode, Georgetown's Henry Sims and Pitt's Nasir Robinson have too little playing time to project comfortably. Sims has about 20+% PT at his spot, with Swopshire, Goode and Robinson far closer to 10% than 20%. Of the 3 Robinson most likely has the clearest path to a secure spot in his team's rotation, but how successful he will become is uncertain (from the numbers). His best path to the Panther rotation is rebounding. Pittsburgh finds itself in the same boat as Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette and Villanova, it's best rebounders have moved on and the staff will give high marks to the players who grab the loose balls.

Many thanks for Ken Pomeroy. His website is an invaluable source for individual possession-based stats.