Pittsburgh #01 Post Game: GameDay

Philadelphia BBallers
"Best GameDay ever" seemed to be the consensus from ESPN's announcing crews. Indeed Villanova put on a great series of events which consumed the better part of the day leading up to the 9:00 pm game. Was the host exhausted from the hosting responsibilities by game time? Or are those older alums and FOPs who sit in the lower stands are as quiet as many (especially students and younger alums consigned to the upper stands) whisper they are? The fans packing the Pavilion seemed subdued, even as the Wildcats took control of the game early. The game was competitive through the first 25 minutes. Villanova took a four point lead (27-23) into the half, and continued to nurse a three point lead through the first 3-4 minutes of the second half, but hard fouls on sophomore center Mouphtaou Yarou brought hard words exchanged between Yarou and Pitt forward Nasir Robinson. As sophomore forward Isaiah Armwood stepped in to lead Yarou away from the potential confrontation he threw his arm (closed hand) around Yarou in an exaggerated motion that caught Robinson square in the face. Armwood did not look at Robinson either before or as he led Mouph away, and without instant replay one would be hard pressed to know whether the gesture was accidental or deliberate. The technical on Armwood negated an opportunity for Villanova to build on their lead at the line while hanging another foul on the Panthers. Pitt managed to erase Villanova's lead and was flirting with a 10 point edge when Corey Fisher grabbed a Gilbert Brown missed three point attempt and started a one man fast break. Brad Wanamaker wrapped himself around Fisher as the Villanova guard raced into the lane, effectively killing the break and forcing the senior to go to the line to get the points. More words were exchanged, this time between Robinson and Fisher. Double technical. Fisher's fourth. And what could have been two shots and the ball became a wash. Distracted, with two of their three senior leaders on the bench and the third hobbled with a rolled ankle, the Wildcats muddled around another four minutes before mustering a final rush in the game's last 3+ minutes. A refocused Villanova squad pressed and ran for those last possessions and managed to narrow the losing margin to three.

The Athletic Department website posted the official boxscore and the AP wire story, "No. 9 Wildcats Fall to No. 4 Pitt, 57-54" (yes, that really was the score, not a typo). The breakdown by halves...

Opponent:		University of Pittsburgh
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	30.6	29.3	59.9
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	88.3	92.1	90.2		75.3	116.0	95.2
eFG%	40.4	37.5	39.0		32.1	52.8	40.2
TORate	16.4	23.9	20.0		19.6	13.6	16.7
OR%	26.7	52.9	40.6		35.0	16.7	28.1
FTA/FGA	26.9	54.2	40.0		28.6	122.2	65.2
FTM/FGA	23.1	37.5	30.0		17.9	83.3	43.5
ARate	30.0	37.5	33.3		44.4	44.4	44.4
Blk%	7.7	4.2	6.0		14.3	11.1	13.0
Stl%	9.9	14.2	12.0		9.7	6.6	8.2
PPWS	0.92	0.89	0.91		0.72	1.20	0.95
2FG%	45.0	40.0	42.9		39.1	61.5	47.2
3FG%	16.7	22.2	20.0		0.0	20.0	10.0
FT%	85.7	69.2	75.0		62.5	68.2	66.7
%2FG	66.7	44.4	55.6		78.3	47.1	59.6
%3FG	11.1	22.2	16.7		0.0	8.8	5.3
%FT	22.2	33.3	27.8		21.7	44.1	35.1

"The Pittsburgh game may make paint drying seem like a speed sport." -- a quote from my West Virginia post game analysis, but the teams in this game actually had 16.7% more possessions. The game was dominated by defense, with Villanova's collapse on the inside in the second half the difference. Lacking a steady "senior" hand from minutes 32-36 was crucial to the stalled comeback.

Those Eight Minutes...
Armwood's technical was called at the 16:22 mark of the second half. The immediate fallout was Gilbert Brown's two made free throws, which, offset by Yaour's two made free throws, maintained Villanova's three point advantage. Brown missed a three point attempt just as the first four minute segment of the second half closed, but that was misleading, as the next eight minutes saw Pitt outscore Nova by a 17-4 margin. Looking at the possession-based numbers, those eight minutes were indeed ugly...

	Shooting					Turnovr		Ast.			Poss.
	FGM	FGA	eFG%	FTM	FTA	No.	Pct.	No.	Pct.	Pts.	No.	ppp
Pittsburgh	6	7	78.6	4	7	0	0.0	3	50.0	17	11	1.55
Villanova	2	11	18.1	0	0	4	40.0	0	0.0	4	10	0.40

Scoring four points in 10 possessions might be the worst efficiency of the season. While the 'Cats dominated the boards during the period, limiting Pitt to several one shot trips, the combination of turnovers (four) and ice cold shooting negated strong offensive (57.1%) and defensive (100%) rebounding numbers through the eight minute segment. This was a physical game, with hard fouls given with the dual purpose of stopping a scoring play or grab a rebound and to intimidate the home team and take them out of their comfort zone. Surprisingly aggressive behavior which the referees seemed to ignore. Against the 'Cats it worked this time.

Records, Next Up...
Villanova's records stand at 19-6 overall and 7-5 in conference (wow, it really has been a bad week). The Wildcats lost ground to Pitt, Notre Dame & Louisville (they have a tie breaker advantage over Louisville). The Panthers solidify their hold on first place and a high NCAA seed, with a 23-2 record overall, 11-1 record in conference play. Villanova takes another mid-week run out to New Jersey to play Seton Hall, followed by a swing out to Chicago to play DePaul. Pittsburgh returns home to host South Florida in a mid-week game, then travels to New York for a game with St. John's on Saturday.

2010-11 Preview -- Pittsburgh Panthers

Too Busy for the Details?
The 2009 Panthers made me a Jamie Dixon believer. Picking the Panthers to finish in hte second quartile in 2010 was a positive expression of faith, or so I thought. The 2011 edition has four returning starters, three very experienced rotation players and a boatload of promising newcomers. Returning players will be pushed by the freshmen early. Keeping everyone happy may be Coach Dixon's toughest job.  Prognosis -- A 1st quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2011	2010	2009
%Min	84.4	42.5	66.1
%Pts	79.7	48.2	48.7
%FGM	85.4	31.7	72.6
%3FGM	84.5	46.7	44.0
%OReb	92.6	24.4	82.9
%DReb	87.0	36.4	76.8
%TReb	88.7	32.1	79.1

A #3 finish in conference while returning only 42.5% of the minutes and so little of the rebounding is surprising for a Big East team, but a testimony to the resilience of the Pittsburgh program under Coach Dixon. The Panthers can stockpile and develop the talented stream of recruits they attract each year without regressing much in regular season play. The Panthers have won the conference regular season and tournaments under Coach Dixon. The next hurdle to clear is the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2009-10		2008-09		2007-08
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
BE Pace	62.3	16	66.8	9	64.2	12
BE Off Eff.	109.3	6	117.7	1	109.2	3
BE Def Eff.	103.4	5	101.6	5	104.7	11
BE Def eFG%	46.3	2	49.0	7	50.9	13
BE Def TOv%	15.3	15	17.1	12	19.2	10
BE Def Reb%	66.0	7	71.9	1	66.2	10
BE Def FTR%	35.6	6	33.7	8	31.7	5

Certainly in keeping with the offensive philosophy, but perhaps consistent with the staff's preference for larger, longer front court players, Pitt executes one of the more deliberate offenses in the conference. While #16 is on the low side (that spot is usually reserved for perimeter-oriented DePaul, Georgetown or West Virginia under John Beilein) it may be attributed to evolving roles in the offense and many opponents' difficulty developing scoring opportunities against Pitt's defense. The revelation is that Pittsburgh does not have an "elite" defense. Pace plays a strong role in opponents' low scores. Though he used the Atlantic 10 conference to frame his point, contributor Ray Floriani illustrated in his article over at College Chalktalk that the differential between a team's offensive and defensive efficiency often determines where it ranks within the conference. A point Pittsburgh makes year in and year out. Defensive efficiency may serve as Pitt's "floor" while their offense might be their "ceiling", but it is the difference that determines their rank. And they consistently rank in the upper division, often among the best in the Big East.

The defensive numbers are not, as I expected, dominating at all. Their defensive rebounding rate in 2009 hinted at how tough they could be at that end of the floor, but taken as a whole over the three seasons, there is no single signature statistic that identifies a "Pittsburgh Defense".

	For the Record...
	2009-10			2008-09			2007-08
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	25	9	0.735	31	5	0.861	27	10	0.730
Big East	13	5	0.722	15	3	0.833	10	8	0.556
Post Season?	NCAA Rnd #2			NCAA Rnd #4			NCAA Rnd #2

The Panthers' Nucleus
Coach Jamie Dixon's biggest task this season will be keeping everyone healthy and focused on the staff's objectives. Freshman season is over for the front court, time to see how good they really can be. Gary McGhee is a solid presence whose lack of speed will not throw Pittsburgh's offensive or defensive systems out of synch. Coach Dixon's style of play places a premium on ball control, pace and physical play. Fans fondly refer to the Panther defense as a boa constictor, and McGhee and Taylor can guarantee that the lane will be crowded and closed to most half court sets and pesky 6-0 guards who venture into the lane.

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
Ashton Gibbs	84.7	116.2	21.4	26.1	49.4	1.5	1.12	38.7
Brad Wanamaker	79.6	105.8	24.7	21.0	48.0	6.3	1.08	57.8
Nasir Robinson	61.0	97.0	18.2	17.7	50.8	9.9	1.00	31.6
Gary McGhee	59.1	109.3	16.0	14.1	62.3	12.1	1.24	53.6
Travon Woodall	49.4	93.1	19.6	17.3	44.5	1.6	0.96	29.7
Gilbert Brown	39.3	110.9	23.2	23.5	56.0	4.7	1.19	50.3
Dante Taylor	34.1	115.0	16.2	14.4	58.4	16.1	1.18	68.5

McGhee will never be the #1 option on offense, but the junior center will always get his share of points from putbacks and the occasional low post entry pass. Dante Taylor is also an exceptional offensive rebounder, and will complement McGhee well as a second, (slightly) speedier low post presence. Both are very efficient, in part because they know when to take their shot and when to pass the ball out to the perimeter. Gilbert Brown has been a four (five?) year enigma for the Panthers. Athletic and talented, between injuries, academic problems and inconsistency his flashes have brought smiles to the staff, media and fans, while his game-to-game level of play brings head shakes and heartburn. This is his last chance to impress, and Pittsburgh could have a 38 or 39 game season if he does.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Ashton Gibbs	84.7	7.7	11.8	10.0	0.3	1.4
Brad Wanamaker	79.6	14.0	31.3	21.3	0.9	2.3
Nasir Robinson	61.0	16.0	13.4	20.9	1.4	1.0
Gary McGhee	59.1	20.3	4.9	21.7	7.5	0.6
Travon Woodall	49.4	11.1	31.8	27.2	1.1	1.7
Gilbert Brown	39.3	10.9	17.9	17.9	1.0	1.3
Dante Taylor	34.1	15.4	1.8	14.8	4.4	2.0

Areas for improvement for guards/wings Travon Woodall and Bradley Wanamaker include turnovers. Each gets enough possesions (19.6 and 24.7 respectively) that turnover rates above 20% can drag down Pitt's offensive efficiency. J.J. Richardson, a 6-7, 235 pound forward and walk-on senior Nick Rivers round out the returning players.

Significant Additions
This year's entering class features recruits at both back court spots and the wing. All are very good, but they, along with a handful of red shirt players from 2010, will be have to be integrated into an already deep rotation. Among the players entering, J.J. Moore might be the most higly regarded. The 6-5, 200 pound wing who prepped at the South Kent School in Connecticut will see minutes behind Gil Brown. Moore scored the team-high as a starter against the Ireland National Team last August. A good start to his career as a Panther. Point guard-in-waiting is Isaiah Epps, a 6-2, 160 pound lead guard out of Plainfield, NJ by way of Hargrave Military Academy did not take the Ireland Tour last summer, but he should definitely see minutes in the back court roatation in 2011. 6-7, 200 pound forward Aron Nwankwo from Baltimore, Maryland and 6-4, 200 pound sg Cameron Wright from Cleveland, Ohio also made the Ireland Tour and took advantage of the structured practice and exhibition games. Both should see a few minutes in the early season. If Pittsburgh's Ireland Tour last August is any indication, the 6-9 225 pound red shirt freshmen Talib Zanna and his wing teammate Lamar Patterson, a 6-5 220 pound wing from Lancaster, Pennsylvania by way of St. Benedict's in New Jersey, will definitely see regular minutes in the front court rotation this season.

Explode If...
Define explode. Regular season conference title? And Big East Tournament Champion? A #1 seed in the NCAA's? Elite Eight? Final Four?
1. The team is deep enough to sustain an injury/absence or two from just about any position in the rotation and not miss a beat (almost, see below). The squad has to practice and play hard, but play together.

Implode If...
1. With a very talented and deep squad, the problem is finding a role and playing time for all of the important parts. Friction between the younger and older members of the squad could undermine squad cohesion. The staff will have to look for the signs and defuse early.
2. The team has been identified early and widely as "the team to beat", both in the conference and nationally. Unlike 2010, they will sneak up on no one. Can the team adjust to life continuously in the limelight? The expectations can be difficult to meet sometimes, and different teams react in different ways.
3. Depth is good, but the two positions where an extended absence of the starter could prove to be relatively more difficult to overcome immediately would be at the point where Ashton Gibbs starts and the low post where Gary McGhee rules. The team is well-stocked at both positions, but Gibbs and McGhee have emerged as leaders. Replacements can make up the stats, but developing the leadership characteristics from either the replacements or other members of the squad (Brown? Wannamaker?) may take a bit longer.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
If the Panthers are indeed in the hunt for the Big East title this season they will start fast and keep going. As pod hosts for the 2K Sports Classic/Coaches vs Cancer Invitational, Pitt should, despite the fact that advancing to Madison Square Garden is automatic, sweep the three game preliminary set. Of the three, Rhode Island will be the most challenging opponent, as the Rams are projected to finish in the upper division of the A-10 Conference this season. Two BCS opponents, Maryland followed by either Illinois or Texas (most likely the 'Horns) will be waiting for Pitt in MSG. The top team in the Big East should be able to take any combination of the three. Coach Dixon's squad drew Tennessee in the Big East-SEC Challenge. The Panther will host the Vols, on December 11 in downtown Pittsburgh, as the featured matchup for a double header that includes a Rutgers-Auburn game. If Villanova faces Tennessee in the NIT Tip-Off, analysts will have a nice common opponent comparison to chew on in the month before conference play commences. Unlike earlier seasons, Coach Dixon will clear the traditional local rivalry games (Duquesne and Robert Morris) before the start of conference play. 12-0 going into their Connecticut game on 12/27 ought to have Pittsburgh in the AP Top 5. 11-1 might bruise Panther pride, but would no impact on the conference race or title prospects (regular or BET). A 9-3 record (or worse, given the competition) would bring a torrent of "What's Wrong With Pittsburgh/the Big East?" stories.

The schedule maker dealt Pittsburgh South Florida, Villanova and Backyard Brawl rival West Virginia as 2011 mirrors. The trio may be one of the tougher draws based on last season's Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP), but the Panthers should log no worse than a 4-2 record (sweep USF, draw with 'Nova & WVU). A 4 game run that stretchs through 10 days starting in the second week in January, should provide an early hint about the Panthers' prospects. Pitt opens the run by hosting Marquette, then takes a road trip to DC for a game with Georgetown and returns to Steel Town for two games in 48 hours, versus Seton Hall and Syracuse. Georgetown has been previewed as a First Quartile team by most publications, the road game, set in that context, and with four days of preparation, should be even more difficult. A 4-0 record through that sequence, coming on the heels of a 2-0 start (Connecticut and Providence) would definitely put Pitt in the conversation about #1 seeds (for the NCAA). If the Panthers can break even on a two game road trip through Morgantown and Philadelphia in early February they should be in a good position to close the season with no worse than the top see in the Big East Conference. Their 2/12 date with Villanova, the backend of that road trip, will be the featured event in ESPN's College GameDay Series. Should things go badly on the Mainline, Pittsburgh will have the opportunity to return the favor in their season-closing match with Villanova at the Petersen on March 5. Split that series with Villanova and have those two end the season #1/#2 in conference and the ink and electronic media will tout the probable rubber match in the Garden a week later. And both are probably looking at #1 seeds on Selection Sunday.

Further Reading
I tracked player and team efficiencies during the Panthers' Ireland Tour last month, and provided a few post game breakdowns of the team's performance. Only the first game box score gave a hint about how much time each player logged, so it was the only game where I could devevelop possession-based statistics for each player who logged time in the game...
The Panthers' first win over the Irish Natioal Team
Pittsburgh's win over a collection of players from four Southern Ireland professional clubs.
Pittsburh's second win over the Irish National Team
The Panthers' win over the Dart Killister club. Dart Killister is one of the better teams in the Ireland Premier League. After rolling over the first three teams, Pitt found the last three teams a bit more challenging.
Pittsburgh's win over the Melbourne Tiger, an Australian professional team in Ireland for a summer festival and tune-up for their season.
The Panthers' win over the English National Team. An odd game statistically, as the English shot more efficiently and got to the line more than the Panthers. The game difference came down to turnovers and rebounding, two areas where Pitt really separated themselves from the Brits.

Ireland 2010 -- Panthers Maul Tigers 92-76, to Go 5-0

The Melbourne Tigers
The Panthers beat the Tigers of Melbourne, Australia, 92-76 at the Odyssey Arena in Belfast, Northern Ireland, running their string on the Ireland Tour to 5-0. The Melbourne Tigers, a four time champion in the Australian Premier (professional) league played a front line that featured 7-0 Utah graduate Luke Nevil and several 6-8 players who gave Pittsburgh all they could handle through the first two quarters. The Tigers, as physical as they were tall, put bodies on the younger Panthers in a contest that on paper resembled a Big East game. In all 50 fouls, including two technical fouls, one apiece assessed to each team, were called over the course of four quarters. Pittsburgh squad was paced by rising seniors Gilbert Brown and Ashton Gibbs, who scored 15 points apiece. Pitt's official athletic website carries wire story game recap which highlights some of the play-by-play, and the official boxscore which lacks player minutes. The scoring by quarters...

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
Pittsburgh	25	20	28	19	92
Melbourne Tigers	18	28	9	20	76

The Panthers upped their "won quarter" mark to 14, and took a seven point lead into the second quarter when the Tigers struck back, launching a 27 point outburst in the last 7:58 of the second quarter to outscore Pitt by 10, 27-17, and take a one point lead into the half. In another first for this tour, the Pittsburgh squad found itself on the underside of the score at the end of a quarter. Using their patented third quarter blitz, Pitt dropped a 28-9 scoring blitz of it's own on Melbourne, retook the lead, and established a working lead going into the game's remaining quarter. With a 19 point lead in hand, the Panthers "lost" the fourth quarter by a single point, 19-20, marking that as only the third quarter (out of 20) that Pitt failed to win. 19-20, to close out the game. This game was played for just under 80 possessions (79.8), became the second highest possession game on the tour so far. The efficiencies and Oliver's four factors:

						FTA
	Pace	ORtg	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA	PPWS
Pittsburgh	79.8	115.3	51.3	18.8	40.0	34.7	1.05
Melbourne Tigers		95.3	49.2	12.5	21.3	55.9	1.02

A review of the score hints the game was not close (a 16 point margin of victory for Pitt), but a quick comparison of each team's shot efficiency (eFG% and PPWS) (51.3 vs 49.2 and 1.05 vs 1.02) say the game was closer than the score suggests. Checking the free throw (FTA/FGA) and turnover (TO%) rates, and one might think the Panthers were on the short end of this score. The game changer, the most critical factor, it turns out, was the rebounding. The margin on offense in particular (40.0 vs 21.3) allowed Pittsburgh multiple scoring opportunities on each possession, while denying Melbourne the same. A check on the raw numbers from the box score confirms, Pittsburgh took 75 FGAs to Melbourne's 59. The Panthers used that 16 FGA differential to take eight more two point attempts and eight more three point attempts than the Tigers. Both teams may have had nearly the same conversion rate for 3FGAs (6-14 vs 9-22), but more rebounds translated into more attempts and more conversions. Pitt enjoyed a similar conversion bulge for two pointers, 25 vs 20, and that differential was enough to compensate for the additional free throws that the Australians were able to take.

Notes
1. For the fourth straight game Coach Dixon used his entire squad, going 14 deep, but used a starting line-up that may well start the first game of this season. Tonight the back court consisted of rising junior Ashton Gibbs and rising senior Bradley Wanamaker. Rising junior Gary McGhee anchored the center, while rising senior Gil Brown and red shirt freshman Talib Zanna played the #3 and #4 respectively.
2. The Gibbs-Wanamaker tandem was effective logging eight assists against four turnovers, but it was the rising senior Gilbert Brown, looking more like a point forward with each game, who dished a game-high six assists against zero turnovers. Both Wanamaker and Gibbs scored double-digit points, Gibbs (along with Gilbert Brown) logging a team-high 15 points. But both guards required volume shooting to get their numbers, going a combined 9-24 (3-12, 6-12) and 4-5 to post their combined 25 points. Off guard and point back up Travon Woodall shot a very efficient 75% eFG%, going 5-8 (2-3, 3-5) from the field while passing out four assists (versus two turnovers).
3. 11 of the 14 players who saw action scored points, six posting double-digit points. Two of the three who did not score (all freshmen) did not take an FGA.
4. Four Panthers, all front court players, were tagged with four fouls. There were no DQ's recorded.
5. Eric Devondorf, late of Syracuse University and recent signee to the Melbourne Tigers, did not play. Indeed, the former Orange wing was not in the city at all.

Next
The English National Team will be Pitt's last opponent of the 2010 Ireland Tour. The two teams face-off Saturday at 5:00 (Ireland Time) in the Odyssey Arena, Belfast. The team will return to the USA Sunday, August 8.

Ireland 2010 -- Pitt Downs Dart Killister 88-62, Goes to 4-0

Dart Killister is Good
The University of Pittsburgh downed the Dart Killister Club Team, 88-62 at Dublin City University, as the Panthers closed out the Dublin leg of their three city Irish Tour. While Pittsburgh ran their record to 4-0, Dart Killister was the closest game of the tour so far. You can find the official boxscore (lacking player minutes again) and an AP-style game recap/story if you click on the links. The recap provides a good description of the scoring runs. Gilbert Brown (per the article) received the game ball for his performance (14 points). The scoring by quarters...

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
Pittsburgh	19	20	20	29	88
Dart Killister	16	14	20	12	62

The game was "off script" early as Dart Killister jumped out to a 14-9 lead early in the first quarter. The Panthers closed the quarter out with a 10-2 run, but Dart Killister kept it close throughout the second quarter, conceding only another six points before the half. Pitt was on the good side of a 39-30 score at the mid-point. That third quarter blitz which has become something of a tour staple in Pittsburgh's first three games, did not materialize. Worse, the 20-20 draw marked the first time through three games (and the first quarter of the fourth game -- 13 quarters) that Pitt did not "win" the quarter. Still holding a nine point lead (59-50) going into the fourth quarter Coach Dixon's squad put the pedal down and blew out a 29-12 scoring margin to put the game away, 88-62. This game was played for over just over 80 possessions (80.2), about 14 possessions higher than the pace shown by Jamie Dixon-coached teams. The efficiencies and Oliver's four factors:

						FTA
	Pace	ORtg	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA	PPWS
Pittsburgh	80.2	109.7	49.3	24.9	53.8	30.6	1.36
Dart Killister		77.3	47.2	29.9	19.4	37.7	1.00

Was the score close because of a breakdown on Pitts' offense or defense (or both)? The ORtg's (109.7 vs 77.3) say Pitt's offense had problems. The Panthers' eFG%, 49.3 -- the first time it was below 54.0 on the tour -- suggest their shots were not dropping. A quick check of the box score shows the first half (quarters 1 & 2) were especially brutal as the Panthers went 16-38 overall (and 0-3 on three pointers). Dart Killister had problems of their own, as suggested by their 77.3 ORtg. While their shooting, inefficient, but not significantly worse than Pittsburgh's (47.2 vs Pitts' 49.3), but they were largely limited to one field goal attempt (if they got it) per trip, as their offensive rebounding, 19.4, meant they would get a second chance on about one in five misses. While Pitt did not shoot much better, they had the benefit, by virtue of grabbing nearly 1 in 2 of their misses, of several tries before relinquishing the ball to a Dart Killister defender. Dart Killister's turnover rate, 29.9 further cut into their shooting opportunities. .

Notes
1. The rotation again went 14 deep, as the staff started freshmen Cameron Wright and Lamar Patterson along side veterans Nasir Robinson, Dante Taylor (who logged his second double-double of the tour) and Travon Woodall (who dished a team-high, tied with Brad Wannamaker) five assists to go with his four points.
2. Dart Killister's Jermaine Turner scored a game-high 27 points while two Panthers, Dante Taylor and Gilbert Brown tied for the team-high 14 points in leading Pittsburgh. Brown notched double digit points in both Dublin matches.
3. As the OR%s suggest, Pittsburgh crushed their Irish opponents for the fourth straight game. The raw numbers (21-29-50 vs 7-18-25) are telling. Nasir Robingson (3-2-5), Dante Taylor (6-4-10) and Talib Zanna (3-1-4) were particularly effective on the offensive boards.

Next
Pittsburgh will take another day to see the sights, after a morning practice, and use early Friday to travel to Belfast for the last leg of their tour. The Panthers will play the Melbourne (Australia) Tigers at the Odyssey Arena in Belfast Friday night (8:30pm Ireland time). The Melbourne Tigers recently signed Eric Devendorf of Syracuse University, who completed his first season of pro ball in New Zealand in June in what promises to be an interesting reunion of sorts for the Big East players.

Ireland 2010 -- Pitt Rolls, 110-61, Over Team Ireland

Twice in Three Days
The University of Pittsburgh met the Irish National Team for the second time, this time on the court at Dublin City University, and swept their series with Team Ireland with a convincing 110-61 score. This brings the Panthers' Irish Tour record to 3-0. The Pittsburgh basketball site has the official boxscore (they included player minutes this time) and a game recap/story. The recap includes some of the action, and identifies a few elements to the Panther win. The scoring by quarters...

	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Total
Pittsburgh	23	27	36	24	110
Team Ireland	15	16	11	19	61

Pittsburgh has controlled every game from virtually the opening tip to the final buzzer. Rolling out to a 19 point lead at the end of the half (second quarter), Pittsburgh decisively won the third quarter 36-11 to put the game out of reach. They then put on cruise control for the fourth quarter, and run out the time. The pattern has been the same -- a spurt in the second quarter puts the Panthers in control going into the half, and a furious third quarter puts the game out of reach. It will be interesting to see if the pattern holds against Division 1 opponents come the regular season (BEWARE THE FIRST 10 MINUTES OF THE SECOND HALF!). Consistent with their first game with the Irish National Team, the game was played for over 70 possessions (), very much out of character for the deliberate and disciplined pace shown by Jamie Dixon-coached teams. The efficiencies and Oliver's four factors:

						FTA
	Pace	ORtg	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA	PPWS
Pittsburgh	76.2	144.5	59.0	15.8	74.2	29.5	1.25
Team Ireland		80.1	34.9	13.1	17.6	49.2	0.79

Pitt's offensive efficiency, 144.5 shows a healthy differential from their defensive efficiency of 80.1, even better than their first game differential with Team Ireland. Their shot conversion efficiency (eFG%) was the best on the tour so far. The Panthers were for the most part, in character -- they dominated the boards (OR% of 74.2 vs 17.6), limited turnovers (15.8) and developed a high yield for their shots, scoring 1.25 points for every FGA they took. About the only out of character element was free throws. The Panthers got to the charity stripe about once for every field goal attempts, well below their Division rate (about 3 times for every 10 field goal attempts). Extremely large scoring margins combined with a very large rotation most likely explain the lack of low post physical play and lane penetration by the guards.

Notes
1. The rotation went 14 deep, and while the recap suggests the minutes were distributed evenly (more or less), the PT ranged from Dante Taylor's team-high 21 minutes to three minutes for one of the freshmen. The starters, Gilbert Brown (who started at the #2), Ashton Gibbs, J.J. Moore, Gary McGhee and J.J. Richardson had 43.9% of the playing time.
2. Four of the starters, JJ Moore, Gilbert Brown, JJ Richardson and Ashton Gibbs, along with rising junior Nasir Robinson scored double-digit points. Moore was the high scorer for the second straight game, this time notching 14 points on 6-12 (1-2, 5-10) and 1-2 shooting.
3. Gibbs, Brown, Robinson and JJ Richardson had particularly efficient outings, combining volume scoring with efficient shooting. Each scored double digit points while posting eFGs >57.0.
4. Brown dished a team-high five assists to go with his 12 points.
5. While the Panthers crushed the Irish National Team on the boards, only rising sophomore Dante Taylor grabbed, who grabbed a game-high 10 rebounds, gathered more than eight boards. This was truly a team effort, as all 14 players had at least one defensive board, and 13 of 14 players grabbed at least one offensive board.

Next
Pittsburgh will play one more game in Dublin, again at Dublin City University, tomorrow, when they face the Dart Killester Club Team. Dart Killester won the North Conference of the Ireland Super League (the premier league in Ireland), 13-5.

Rising Seniors -- Nine to Watch

What I Am Looking For
Austin Freeman won't make this list. Neither will Jimmy Butler nor Tim Abromaitis. They are names already; they made one of the "All Big East" Teams last March. Everybody knows them, and everyone will have them on their "Best in" or "Top" list in the next three months. They are already a bullet on ESPN's "Keys to the Game" pre-game analysis, and will probably continue their bullet status this season. They made their marks during their freshmen or sophomore or junior seasons. Those "name" guys decided to come back and...
a. Finish their education;
b. Improve their draft status;
c. Help their team win a Big East Championship/NCAA Championship;
d. Savor one last year of...before heading out into the world to earn a living;
e. All of the above.

Corey Fisher, Jeremy Hazell and the other recognized junior and senior players, veterans all, make the Big East Conference the best conference for watching basketball. But every season a Hilton Armstrong, or an Andy Rautins, a Jon Wallace or a Dante Cunningham lands in the national press (and picks up a post season Big East award or two) seemingly out of nowhere. Invisible to many except their team's fans, these seniors tend to start somewhere back in that freshman pack, or labor in the vineyards of a low ranking team, but unlike their classmates, they (and their team?) improve quietly every season. By Pomeroy's classification system they may start as a "Role", "Limited Role" or even "Invisible" player, and grow into a "Major" or "Go-to Guy" player over the course of their four years. Pomeroy discusses growth "probabilities" in "Putting Individual Efficiency into Perspective" over at The Basketball Prospectus back in 2007. These guys tend to push at the upper limit of their growth curve each season. The Jon Wallaces and Orinze Onuakus -- are drawing a good share of the minutes at their position going into their senior seasons and they are drawing somewhere between 18% - 20% of the possessions when they are on the floor. They may lurk off the MSM's radar, but their teammates know who they are, look for them on the floor...and trust them with the ball.

			On Offense...
Player	School	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shot	PPWS
Marshon Brooks	PC	66.2	113.9	22.8	25.9	1.10
Scoop Jardine	Cuse	55.6	113.6	22.6	20.7	1.15
Antonio Pena	Nova	61.9	112.3	20.3	18.1	1.22
Chris Wright	GTown	87.8	111.7	23.2	24.4	1.14
Gilbert Brown	Pitt	39.3	110.9	23.2	23.5	1.19
D.J. Kennedy	John's	77.4	110.4	25.8	23.5	1.15
Rick Jackson	Cuse	65.7	108.6	19.6	19.0	1.16
Brad Wanamaker	Pitt	79.6	105.8	24.7	21.0	1.08
Dwight Hardy	John's	48.1	102.4	23.7	28.0	1.06

Marshon Brooks fits the profile, each season his role with the Friars has, for the most part, grown. Securing 22.5% of the possessions and over a quarter of the shots last season would put Brooks on an "All" team if his team finished 0.500 or better in conference play. The Friars didn't, and Brooks will probably put in his last season playing for a team that may well post fewer than the four "W"s they earned in conference play in 2010. Pitt's Gilbert Brown is another outlier. I set 40% as the cutoff for consideration this season, largely on the notion that if the player had not been able to draw that many minutes, there must be some other coach-player issue at work. Brown actually logged about 58.8% of the PT as soon as he became academically eligible. His numbers through what was obviously the toughest part of Pittsburgh's schedule were impressive. Each season Brown has faced a challenge putting in an entire season, and when he could (his sophomore season) there was a logjam at his spot. If he can stay healthy, this might well be the payout year for those among the Pitt faithful who did not falter. Everyone knows Chris Wright out of Georgetown already, but this is one reason I prefer the more traditional, five player "All Team" recognition. Had the voters had 22 slots (instead of 15) to fill, Wright would definitely made it. Rush the Court's Zach Hayes ranks Wright #9 on his Big East Top 20 list. After a red shirt year (injury), and a prolonged un-mentored "orientation" sophomore season Wright's role and efficiency has improved each season. I was not sure about Villanova's Antonio Pena, while his shooting efficiency stats are strong (and his offensive rebounding rate is outstanding) his "share" of shot taking is a little light at 18.1%. That the staff tended to limit his minutes in tight games is not reassuring either. But Pena is a senior, and Villanova's staff tend to hand a good deal of responsibility to their upperclassmen. 'Tone is a solid player who can be very good (when he holds onto the ball). Maybe he needs a little faith...in himself.

			Four Factors...
						FTA
Player	School	%Min	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
Marshon Brooks	PC	66.2	53.1	6.5	14.9	23.1
Scoop Jardine	Cuse	55.6	53.4	1.9	21.4	39.5
Antonio Pena	Nova	61.9	57.7	10.4	20.4	61.4
Chris Wright	GTown	87.8	52.6	2.1	16.5	35.7
Gilbert Brown	Pitt	39.3	56.0	4.7	17.9	50.3
D.J. Kennedy	John's	77.4	52.3	6.2	18.6	49.0
Rick Jackson	Cuse	65.7	59.1	12.7	21.2	34.1
Brad Wanamaker	Pitt	79.6	48.0	6.3	21.3	57.8
Dwight Hardy	John's	48.1	50.6	2.2	15.5	22.8

Check out Rick Jackson's offensive rebounding rate (OR%). The "average" varies by position, and offensive systems can emphasize offensive rebounding (Villanova's) or de-emphasize it (Michigan) depending on the priorities set by the staff. According to Ken Pomeroy 21.4 was the highest in Division 1, 12.8 is Top 100 and 8.7 is Top 500. In any system 10 is very good, and Jackson grabbed 12.7% of the offensive boards when he was in the game. For both Jackson and teammate Scoop Jardine (and Pitt's Brad Wannamaker and Villanova's Pena...) was turnovers. In a low possession system (Pitt/Wannamaker) that can be a killer. For Jardine the redeeming attribute was his assist rate (Top 50 per Pomeroy); for Jackson, it was his rebounding, at both ends of the court.

		Miscellaneous...
Player	School	Ast%	DR%	Blk%	Stl%
Marshon Brooks	PC	10.1	9.8	1.7	2.7
Scoop Jardine	Cuse	32.5	7.2	0.3	3.0
Antonio Pena	Nova	7.5	21.0	2.3	2.2
Chris Wright	GTown	22.6	8.0	0.8	2.5
Gilbert Brown	Pitt	17.9	10.9	1.0	1.3
D.J. Kennedy	John's	21.5	16.3	2.2	2.2
Rick Jackson	Cuse	11.2	16.5	8.2	2.2
Brad Wanamaker	Pitt	31.3	14.0	0.9	2.3
Dwight Hardy	John's	8.7	8.0	0.3	1.8

St. John's duo DJ Kennedy and Dwight Hardy labored long and hard last season. Kennedy has been a Johnny for three seasons, and worked every season to put the Red Storm into the conferences' upper division. Hardy transferred in, sat a season and will play his second and final season in Queens. St. John's fans have valued Kennedy's scoring efficiency and hustle, while lamenting his (occasional) lapses in situational judgement. The problem may be correctable if, with that last timeout in a game, the staff sends the squad back out with a play that has a good chance of success.

Hits & Misses...Last Year's List
A few of last summer's "Nine to Watch" seniors had very good years. Andy Rautins and Orinze Onuaku (& Wes Johnson, &...everyone involved, everyone involved) led the Orange to the top of the conference as the entire team had a breakout season. An untimely injury to Onuaku, their anchor in the low post, derailed what might have been a deep NCCAA Tournament run. Pittsburgh's Jermaine Dixon increased his possession and shot rates dramatically, but his efficiency crashed, and his minutes declined through the season. Villanova's Reggie Redding returned from his fall suspension, and assumed much the same role his senior season as he did his junior season. He finished with about the same percentage of possessions, shots (role player status) and offensive rating (104). The Wildcats were good, but did not appear to get better as they moved through the season. Reggie is playing in Cyprus. Stanley Robinson's role in Connecticut's offense did grow significantly, as the senior took more possessions and shots in the Husky offense. He improved his offensive rating in the process, but as a whole the team stepped back to an 18-16 record and, for the second time in five seasons, NIT status. Robinson was taken by the Orlando Magic in the second round of the NBA draft. Stix Mitchell watched his role with the Pirates disappear when Jeff Robinson became eligible and took an increasingly large role in the Hall's offense and defense. By the end of the season Robinson (and freshman Ferrakon Hall) took most of the available minutes at the #3. Seton Hall's record improved and they received an NIT bid after losing in the quarter-final round of the Big East Tournament. After a Big East Tournament post game outburst however, Mitchell was dismissed from the team, and did not play in the NIT.

Ireland 2010 -- Pittsburgh Defeats the Irish National Team 99-54

The Runnin' Panthers?
The University of Pittsburgh opened their tour of Ireland with a 99-54 drubbing of the Irish National Team before 1,650 fans in Neptune Stadium, in Cork, Ireland. Team Ireland led 6-2 in the first quarter, but were stunned by a 15-0 run and never recovered. The Pittsburgh basketball site has the official boxscore and game recap/story. For those interested in following the daily comings and goings of the team, the site also provides a daily blog of the tour.

The game was played for a slightly surprising 74.1 possessions, well above the Panthers' 62.9 possessions from the 2010 season (consistent with previous seasons pace), and more consistent with an exhibition game. The efficiencies and Oliver's four factors:

	Off		FTA
	Eff	eFG%	FGA	OReb%	TO%
Pittsburgh	133.7	65.7	23.9	60.7	29.7
Irish National Team	72.9	39.3	19.6	27.6	21.6

Probably the best predictor of the result was the nearly identical allocation of minutes among the players (see below). Had the Irish offered much resistence, Coach Dixon no doubt would have allocated a few more minutes to the starters. The offensive efficiency, field goal efficiency (eFG%) and offensive rebounding numbers were predictable. A team accustomed to winning most of their board battles in the Big East handled the Irish National Team easily. The FTA/FGA was low, about 18.9 points below their 42.8% of 2010. The product of an unusually high 3FGA/2FGA ratio (35.8% vs 2010's 29.1%) possibly, or more likely the point spread through much of the second half -- Pitt led by 12, 48-36, at half-time, but blew the game open in the third quarter, outscoring Team Ireland 24-10. Putting up another 27 fourth quarter points, and Pitt outscored Ireland in the second half to the tune of 51-18, a truly overwhelming performance. With scoring that disparate, there was no reason to force the issue and get to the line. The Panthers' 29% turnover rate is the one sour note on the contest, but consider that the staff reached very deep into the bench and no doubt mixed player combinations to the point where unfamiliar pairings had to work together. The very large leads throughout the second half may have encouraged a more relaxed attitude about possessions, or a bit more creative playmaking. As the table below suggests, the problem appears to have centered on only a handful of players.

							FTA
Player	%Min	Poss%	Shot%	ORtg	eFG%	PPWS	FGA
Nasir Robinson	45.0	16.4	13.3	156.7	100.0	1.88	75.0
Gilbert Brown	45.0	34.1	39.8	116.7	83.3	1.71	16.7
Gary McGhee	45.0	13.8	10.0	120.1	66.7	1.55	66.7
Brad Wanamaker	47.5	28.3	18.9	165.5	83.3	1.74	33.3
Ashton Gibbs	47.5	43.7	47.1	99.8	56.7	1.13	0.0
Travon Woodall	45.0	32.3	19.9	69.4	50.0	1.00	0.0
Dante Taylor	45.0	18.5	16.6	112.5	60.0	1.11	60.0
Talib Zanna	45.0	17.3	13.3	99.1	75.0	1.50	0.0
Lamar Patterson	45.0	36.4	26.5	81.7	43.8	0.86	37.5
J.J. Richardson	45.0	4.8	6.6	207.0	100.0	2.05	50.0
Nick Rivers	45.0	6.9	6.6	31.2	0.0	0.00	0.0

While it is silly to draw broad conclusions based on a single exhibition game (or tour for that matter), possession and shot rates suggest what most Pitt observers have been saying since the end of the 2010 season -- that the offense will run through junior point guard Ashton Gibbs and senior forward Gilbert Brown. This was the fourth consecutive off season in which Pitt observers have predicted a "break out" year for the athletic forward. Maybe they are right this time. Luke Harangody racked up possession and shot rates in the 33%-35% range last season, presenting problems for Notre Dame's offense. Look for Gibbs' and Brown's possession and shot rates to drop as the tour goes on. And next season, something in the 27-29% range, provided Brown holds to those same efficiency numbers (and Gibbs can elevate his a bit) will earn both players conference (and most likely national) recognition. A look at the assist rates and rebounding...

	Ast%	OR%	DR%	TO%	Blk%	Stl%
Nasir Robinson	15.3	7.9	7.7	18.3	0.0	3.0
Gilbert Brown	0.0	7.9	15.3	17.6	0.0	0.0
Gary McGhee	0.0	15.9	7.7	21.7	0.0	3.0
Brad Wanamaker	71.2	0.0	7.3	10.1	0.0	8.5
Ashton Gibbs	36.2	0.0	7.3	6.5	0.0	2.8
Travon Woodall	26.5	0.0	0.0	37.1	0.0	9.0
Dante Taylor	0.0	31.7	38.3	0.0	0.0	0.0
Talib Zanna	0.0	31.7	38.3	34.7	0.0	0.0
Lamar Patterson	21.3	23.8	23.0	16.5	0.0	3.0
J.J. Richardson	0.0	0.0	7.7	0.0	0.0	3.0
Nick Rivers	5.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

The board domination is led by rising sophomores Dante Taylor and Talib Zanna, two front court players who had less impact than many expected their first year out. I will be interested to see how Coach Dixon works them into the rotation.

Next...
Pittsburgh will play the Southern Regional All-Stars in Neptune Stadium on Sunday, then travel to Dublin to continue their tour.

Roster Moves -- Late 2009 Off Season

Late Summer Edition
Keeping our fingers crossed there have been no injuries reported. We are coming into that part of the preseason though, school is coming back into session, squads continue to play unsupervised pickup games. The changes are more gains than losses right now, though one or two are a little surprising.

Marquette -- I am not sure the Marquette Athletic Department ever got around to "officially" announcing that freshman forward Brett Roseboro, a 6-9 forward out of Pennsylvania, signed in the fall of 2008 and on campus for part of the summer has transferred to St. Bonaventure. Since he did not enroll in classes the transfer rules should not apply. He will be available to play in the fall 2009.

Pittsburgh -- The Panthers announced on August 10 that they had picked up Centenary point guard Chase Adams, a 5-11 rising senior as a transfer. Centenary had voted to downgrade their program to DII, opening the door for outbound transfers who could have the one year wait period waived, as Adams did. Adams, more a bridge and insurance policy, as opposed to an impact player, will help the 2010 Panthers maintain the program as the staff waits for the arrival of (Class of 2010 recruits) Isaiah Epps and Cameron Wright to reinforce the current back court contingent of Ashton Gibbs, Brad Wanamaker, Jermaine Dixon and Travon Woodall. Pitt waited until the last Friday in August to announce that forward Gilbert Brown, their 6-6 junior guard/forward would not be eligible to play in their Fall 2009 games. Brown, on academic probation for the semester, will have to get his books & grades in order before he can be re-instated to the team.

Rutgers -- About a week after returning from touring Europe with a group of "East Coast All-Stars" guard Corey Chandler was abruptly dismissed from the Scarlet Knights team for violating Athletic Department policy, according to Head Coach Fred Hill. Heralded as Coach Hill's 1st big get, the former All-State performer was suspended briefly in the fall of 2008, and ran afoul of the staff after a heated phone call made in the spring of 2009. Chandler apologized for the indiscretion and all appeared well until this latest run in. Corey will finish his career at Binghamton, according to his High School coach. Chandler's exit, coupled with guard/forward Earl Pettis' transfer last May, leaves Rutgers shallow at the #2/#3 spots.

South Florida -- Bulls Head Coach Stan Heath re-instated senior guard Mike Mercer on Friday Augusst 21. Mercer, a transfer from Georgia was dismissed in January 2009 after his second arrest since transferring to South Florida. Coach Heath noted that Mercer had completed his course of study and fulfilled his requirements for graduation. Mercer will add depth to the #2/#3 spots this season.

Villanova -- Announced that rising senior guard Reggie Redding was suspended from games for the Fall 2009 semester. Redding, arrested on July 31 for possession of marijuana, will be able to go to class and practice with the team. If all goes well he should be eligible to play after December 18. The Wildcats will not have Redding available when they play in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off in November.

West Virginia -- Head Coach Bob Huggins re-instated rising senior point guard Joe Mazzulla for the fall 2009. Mazzulla, red shirted last season with an arm injury, had been suspended in April when he was arrested for assault on a woman. Mazzulla had been arrested in Pittsburgh the preceding summer for assault and disorderly conduct during a Pirates baseball game. The Mountaineers' second point guard, rising sophomore Darryl Bryant, remains on suspension following his second arrest for leaving the scene of accident in June.

Assessing the Impact
Roseboro, who attracted the Golden Eagles' attention when he shot up 4-5 inches over the summer of 2008, was considered more a project than an impact player. Adams will provide depth and experience for the Panther back court. Brown's loss will hurt...Brown. He had a minimal impact on the team in the course of his first 2 seasons. Chandler's value may be the most debatable in the group. Though he was not afraid to shoot -- Chandler takes another 14% of the Scarlet Knight's 3s with him -- he was not especially accurate. Mercer, if he finally plays to his potential, would have a great positive impact on the team play. Heath tended to play him or Jones in the 4 games in which Mercer appeared last season. Playing in tandem might make a difference for the Bulls. Heath seems to be a coach who likes guards and knows how to develop them. Redding's maturity and court vision (and IQ) will be missed, especially in Puerto Rico where the 'Cats may face the most demanding portion of their OOC. Restoring both point guards would have a tremendous impact on West Virginia's prospects in 2010. Without Mazzulla and Bryant the Mountaineers would still be very good, though relatively more vulnerable in ball handling situations. With both guards back they should have the depth and experience to be considered the team to beat in the Big East next season.

Big East Freshmen: Ten Six to Watch

Disclaimers, Exclusions & Disclosures...
Before I get to this year's potential break out players, I feel I ought to follow up on the list I put together going into last season. I identified this group of ten as players who, though overlooked for the Big East All Rookie Team (2007), could have a big impact on their teams in the 2007-08 season. Two of those players, Lazar Hayward and Earl Clark did indeed receive more recognition than their freshmen years. Hayward, a 6-6, 225lbs sophomore from Marquette was named to the Second Team All Big East, while speculation on whether he would declare for the NBA draft, followed Clark all season. Dwain Williams (PC), Larry Wright (St. John's) and Vernon Macklin (Georgetown) all saw their minutes grow as did their roles in their respective offenses. Each "progressed" from a role player-type player to a regular-type player. Solomon Bozeman (USF), Larry Wright and Lazar Hayward improved their shooting efficiency, while most maintained or saw their eFG%s decline slightly. Only Sololmon Bozeman saw a significant cut in minutes, though Jerry Smith (Louisville), David Cubillian (Marquette) and Larry Davis (Seton Hall) saw their roles (mostly role player-level involvement in their offenses) tread water or decline slightly. Qa'rraan Calhoun (St. John's) left school over the summer of 2007 while five others Solomon Bozeman (South Florida), Larry Davis (Seton Hall), Vernon Macklin (Georgetown), Dwain Williams (Providence) and Larry Wright (St. John's) transferred during the off season.

Player	Coll	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shot	eFG%	PPWS	FTRate
Gilbert Brown	Pitt	54.7	115.8	15.4	15.4	51.9	1.12	37.0
Corey Stokes	Nova	45.9	101.8	17.6	21.9	46.5	1.01	20.8
Chris Wright	GTown	20.2	100.1	22.1	19.9	56.4	1.12	32.9
D.J. Kennedy	John's	66.0	98.4	18.3	16.5	48.9	1.07	48.0
Rashad Bishop	Nati	58.0	97.3	15.1	14.7	45.7	0.99	32.2
Antonio Pena	Nova	48.4	95.4	21.5	18.8	47.5	1.05	52.5

Note that all possession-based stats come from the Scouting Report Pages for each team, located on Ken Pomeroy's website. Clicking on a player's team will link you to the corresponding Scouting Report.

Ten Six to Watch
Going over the numbers for this off season's rising sophomores, made me appreciate the depth of the class from last summer. The class this time around, below the All Big East Rookie Team and these six, seems thinner than last summer.
When Pittsburgh's Mike Cook went down with a season-ending ACL tear freshman Gilbert Brown joined a rotation with seniors Keith Benjamin and Ron Ramon to fill out the Panther attack on the wing. If Brown did not live up to the preseason press offered by Mike DeCourcy, he did post some pretty good numbers. Ramon and Benjamin are gone; even if Mike Cook's appeal for a 6^th year of eligibility is upheld, Brown will see even more minutes than last season.
The Villanova team will be much the same next season as it was last season. Only the now-transferred Malcolm Grant's minutes are available to divvy up. The perfect opportunity for a do-over that much heralded (when he entered last fall) swingman Corey Stokes ought to seize to his advantage. Stokes started strong in the Wildcat's exhibition games, but lost momentum as the regular season got under way. He came on strong at the end, gaining the starting job in Villanova's last four games. I make no apologies for my Villanova bias, but including the second Wildcat (forward Antonio Pena) in a rather small list is less favoritism and more a candidate who fits the profile as a capable player with an opportunity to contribute. When Casiem Drummond went to the bench with a foot fracture Pena stepped in on (very) short notice to pick up Drum's minutes. He did well, surging in the first few games, but "settling" as the Big East season kicked in and wore on. Pena seemed to tire at the end (freshman fatigue?), but maintained a presence in the offense (21.5% Poss%, 18.8% Shot%) and was a force on the boards. By way of comparison, rising senior Dante Cunningham posted his first double-double as a Wildcat nine games into his junior season (versus Hartford). Pena register his first double-double ten games later (2^nd Pittsburgh game). For Pena, becoming more efficient offensively involves not simply hitting a higher percentage of shots, it also means (more importantly?) cutting down on turnovers.
I am reluctant to name any St. John's player to this list...writing anything positive seems to condemn the player to transfer at the the next available opportunity. DJ Kennedy did have a very good freshman campaign, and though he was not named to the All BE Rookie Team should, despite new challenges from redshirt sophomore Rob Thomas, be even more effective next season. St. John's has developed a reputation for tough defense under head coach Norm Robert, and Kennedy's Stl% (2.8) is pretty good for a #2/#3, no doubt a stat that caught Coach Robert's attention. Kennedy rebounds well (compare his numbers to Pena's -- below), which ought to be a plus when deciding whether to give him more time next season.
Rashad Bishop worked himself into the starting lineup by the fourth game of last season, and despite an up and down season, managed to work himself back into the starting line up by the end of the season. Bishop averaged 5.4 points and 3.4 rebounds in about 23 minutes of play. Bishop's main competition for the #3 will continue to be fellow wings (and fellow sophomores...) Darnell Wilks and Alvin Mitchell, either of whom may well be the breakout (though Mitchell seems more likely than Wilks...) player next season.
Normally I would look for more minutes than Georgetown's Chris Wright has played before including an individual on the "...To Watch" List. Wright, a well regarded point guard going into last season, had a "donut" season (play in the beginning and end, injury in the middle). Despite some good scoring numbers Wright's ORtg is just over 100, most likely due to his turnovers. Jon Wallace has graduated and Jeremiah Rivers transferred. With no entering point guards this season, Wright will most likely team with Jesse Sapp; their only relief will come from fellow sophomore Omar Wattad, redshirt freshman Nikita Mescheriakov and incoming 2 time All-Met (Washington DC) guard Jason Clark.

Player	Coll	OR%	DR%	TORate	%Block	%Stls
Gilbert Brown	Pitt	5.4	10.4	15.8	1.3	1.8
Corey Stokes	Nova	3.1	12.4	15.7	0.6	1.3
Chris Wright	GTown	2.5	13.2	26.1	0.4	3.2
D.J. Kennedy	John's	8.1	17.8	23.0	1.4	2.8
Rashad Bishop	Nati	5.3	11.6	21.1	1.8	1.7
Antonio Pena	Nova	8.5	17.3	24.8	2.1	1.6

And Then There is...
John Flowers of West Virginia logged about 30% of the minutes at the #3 and posted an ORtg of 93.3 as a 2^nd/3^rd option on offense. Flowers played behind Da’Sean Butler. With Devin Ebanks and Kevin Jones coming in next season Flowers (and Butler...) will have some very competitive practices.
Preston Knowles of Louisville logged some impressive numbers playing about 20% of the minutes on the wing. Knowles played behind Jerry Smith (among others) while logging an eFG% of 57.6, yeildng an ORtg of 115.3. Like Smith, Knowles plugs into the offense as a sniper -- shooting enough from the outside to keep defenses honest, but not taking touches (Poss% 13.6) and scoring opportunities (Shot% 16.6) from the team's offensive headliners. Smith and Knowles will no doubt split time with transfer Reggie Delk and incoming Jared Swopshire. Coach Pitino tends to spread the playing time around, allowing each player a shot to stake his claim to the position.
Mike Davis was the first big off the bench to relieve the often injured John Garcia, a junior next year. Garcia was healthy all last season, the first full season he has been able to log at the Hall. Davis managed to post some very good numbers on the boards, especially on the offensive boards (OR% 10.4). Bob Gonzalez teams are back court-oriented, but as the 4/4 option he posted a very decent 108.7 ORtg on an eFG% of 47.1. Augustine Okosun transferred in the off season. That leaves incoming Melvyn Oliver (340lbs) from Mississippi Elite Christian as Davis' competition for Garcia's backup. If Garcia hits another run of bad health, Davis will most likely get the first crack at the starting line up.