2011-12 Preview -- Fourth Quartile

A Casting Call...
The four teams that make up the Big East's bottom quartile share a common feature -- they have talent, just not enough of it. DePaul, Providence and Rutgers have each replaced their head coach and staff within the last 18 months. South Florida will most likely follow suit next spring. The Demons, Friars and Knights were in various stages of decomposition when their Athletic Directors forced a change of direction. DePaul and Rutgers are in Year Two of their rebuilding process, while Ed Cooley is just getting started. The challenges have to be daunting.

	2010-11 Season
	Overall			Big East			BET	Post
Team	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	Seed	Seasn?
DePaul	7	24	0.226	1	17	0.056	16	BET
Providence	15	17	0.468	4	14	0.222	14	BET
Rutgers	15	17	0.468	5	13	0.278	13	BET
South Florida	10	23	0.303	3	15	0.167	15	BET

Together these teams matched Pittsburgh's conference win total. Lacking 11 bid-worthy teams this season, expect these four to do better in the win column...by a combined two or three wins.

Team Thumbnail (in 300 words...more or less)
DePaul -- The Purnell Era, Year Two
Coach Oliver Purnell has a pair of solid stars in Cleveland Melvin and Brandon Young. Those two, both sophomores, will be the pillars around which he will rebuild the Blue Demon program. Cleveland (14.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg) who was named Conference Rookie of the Year last March, will anchor the front court, while Young (30.4 mpg, 12.6 ppg, 3.7 apg), who made the All-Rookie First Team along with Cleveland, will man the point and anchor the back court. Returning guards/wings starting off guard Jeremiah Kelly, Edwind McGhee and Joe Belcaster will be joined by 5-11 JUCO Worrel Clahar and freshmen Charles McKinney (a 6-3 local from suburban Evanston who prepped at Quality Education Academy in North Carolina). Baltimore native Macari Brooks was a NCAA Clearing House casualty. Front court veterans include 2010-10 starting center Krys Faber and sophomore forward Moses Morgan. Junior Tony Freeland will red shirt this season after surgey to stabilize his right shoulder. Joining Freeland as a red shirt will be Montray Clemons, another Baltimore native who ruptured the patellar tendon in his left knee in late October. Entering freshmen Jamee Crockett and transfer Donnavan Kirk (when he is eligible after the Autumn quarter) will round out the forward rotation, with freshman Derrell Robertson pushing Fabers in the low post. In the wake of the roster shakeup (Clemons, Freeland and Macari), DePaul's new basektball blog, Under the El posted a a breakdown of Purnell's rotations for his last three Clemson teams to assess whether DePaul's suddenly shallow(er) rotation would torpedoe Purnell's timetable to implement his high-pressure offensive and defensive system. There are (still) enough bodies, but are they athletic and conditioned well enough to withstand an 18 game conference schedule?

The Blue Demons' 2010-11 offensive efficiency (points per possession scored) was low (about 0.95), but they turned in an especially porous defensive efficiency (opponents' points per possession) of 1.17 in conference play. Handing out the highest points per possession in conference play did not by itself condemn the Demons to their 1-17 record, but the resulting difference margin (offensive efficiency - defensive efficiency) was, at -0.214, nearly double that of the next nearest conference team. Purnell's charges will have to work on field goal defense (cut into their opponents' conversion rate) and turnovers (get them up, something Clahar was particularly adept at doing) this season. The thin rotation may be especially vulnerable at the end of the season when DePaul will host Providence and Seton Hall within a fortnight to close out the regular season. The Friars and Pirates (along with guests St. John's and South Florida near midseason) are the best candidates for wins. Will the Blue Demons have enough gas in the tank to take them? Progress in 2011-12 will be measured in a smaller efficiency margin (and one or two additional wins).

Providence -- Ed Cooley! Come on Down!!!
The Keno Davis Era ended on an especially flat 1-8 note. Providence Athletic Director Robert Callahan, with a much clearer idea of what he wanted as a head coach, turned to Rhode Island native Ed Cooley, a five year veteran head coach who resurrected the Fairfield program, and closed out this search three weeks earlier than his 2008 search (which brought Davis to Friartown in the first place). Without Marshon Brooks to supply 788 points this season, where will Cooley turn for the points? The best of the lot is returning guard Vincent Council, with guards Bryce Cotton and Gerard Coleman providing second and third scoring options. The roster lists 13 players, but of the 11 who checked into the Assumption College exhibition game, five shot a combined 0-3 with none of those five, despite averaging over seven minutes apiece, attempting more than a single field goal. The shallow rotation was even shallower with the news that junior forward Kadeem Batts was a DNP versus Assumption -- coach's decision (indefinite suspension it turns out, that could run into the regular season) -- and freshman guard Kiwi Gardner was ruled academically ineligible by the NCAA (Providence will appeal). True Coach Cooley decided to go with a revamped front court, starting two freshmen, red shirt Brice Kofane (6-8, 205 lbs) and LaDontae Henton (6-6, 220 lbs, Lansing, MI) and bringing junior Bilal Dixon in off the bench (Dixon scored 13 points in 22 minutes, on a very efficient 71.4% eFG% and 1.32 PPWS). But the overall offensive efficiency, an anemic 0.97 points per possession (PPP), was masked by the 13 point winning margin (64-51). The other disquieting note was rebounding, Coach Cooley's squad grabbed a meager 25% of their own misses, while Assumption was able to take a second chance shot on 35% of their misses. Those numbers will kill Providence in conference play.

The South Padre Island Invitational field will pit both Iowa State and Northern Iowa against the Friars could be cause for Thanksgiving (and optimism) should Providence sweep those two on a neutral court. Most of Providence's regional opponents (Holy Cross, Rhode Island and Boston College) will come to the Dunkin Donuts Center this season, an advantage for the home team to be sure. Drawing South Florida as a mirror is small consolation for the Syracuse/Georgetown combination (will the Hoyas hold up on the road?). Hosting Rutger and Seton Hall may offer the best possibilities for additional wins if the Friars' lack of depth is not exposed by early February.

Rutgers -- Meet the All New Scarlet Knights
Second year coach Mike Rice recruited a whopping seven man class, which means the 2011-12 season should begin a total makeover process for the Scalet Knight program. The changes begin appropriately enough at the #1, with newcomers Myles Mack, a 5-9 All-State player out of St. Anthony's will take the point, probably backed by senior Tyree Graham, a JUCO who took a red shirt last season. Sophomore Austin Carroll will be pushed at the off guard by newcomer combo guards Eli Carter, a 6-2 prep who committed to St. Bonaventure before taking a fifth year at Brewster Academy in New Hampshire, and Jerome Seagears (6-3, 175 lbs), who prepped in Maryland. The front court may have to wait a while for the "names" to make an impact. Kadeem Jack enrolled last January and took a red shirt to practice with the team. Jack was injured just before fall practice and after surgery to his right foot will require 3-4 months of rehabilitation. Kansas State transfer Wally Judge (6-9, 245 lbs) will sit this season per NCAA transfer rules. In the meantime, returning sophomore Gilvydas Biruta, an All-Conference Rookie Teamer from 2011 will make due with junior Austin Johnson and a pair of freshmen, 6-8 Derrick Randall and 6-9 Greg Lewis. Look for freshman Malick Kone, an athletic 6-5 guard/forward to join a wing rotation that includes junior All-Conference prospect (and most likely starter) Dane Miller and sophomore Mike Poole. Rice has bodies this season, Carter or Seagears can move over to the point should Mack falter; Lewis and Randall will pick up minutes they would not get if Jack and Judge were available. The learning curve may prove to be the squad's greatest challenge. The Scarlet Knights' 2011 conference defense was porous, allowing 1.08 points per possession. Shot defense (a generous 49.7% eFG%), rebounding (allowed opponents a 35.5% rate on their missed field goals) and fouling (51.1% FTA/FGA) the three areas that need improvement.

The Cancun Challenge slate facing Rutgers is hardly overpowering. Illinois State is projected to finish in the MVC's lower division, while Illinois and Richmond are a year away from their peaks. Losing to any of the three (or two of the three) would suggest the Scarlet Knights will be on track to settle into the bottom of the conference. Florida will be the Scarlet Knights' marquee out of conference matchup. Beating the Gators would be great, but keeping it close is more realistic. Rutgers drew Seton Hall, Notre Dame and West Virginia as mirror opponents; a 3-3 record would be great, a sign the Knights may well finish out of the bottom quartile, but 2-4 or 1-5 might be more realistic. 0-6 would be a strong suggestion Rice's team is more than a year away. Among the conference visitors this season, DePaul, Villanova and St. John's offer the best opportunities for a win. Among the road conference opponents, South Florida and Providence are possible wins. To get out of the bottom quartile, Rutgers would need at least 5-6 wins. One or two from the mirrors, combined with two or three from the home slate would still require the Knights to take a game or two on the road...a very narrow margin of error.

South Florida -- the Perpetual Rebuilding Project
Counting the additions to the 2011-12 roster, Coach Stan Heath has coached 38 players in his five years in Tampa. Of the 38 players (a thirty-ninth, Brock Martino is a transfer from South Alabama who will sit this season), 19 played a single season for Heath, the average "stay" being 1.7 seasons. This season's squad will average 2.0 seasons with the coach, but even chalking the eight who left or finished after Heath's first season (three graduated or exhausted their eligibility and five transferred) to "housekeeping", that still leaves 30 players in four seasons, or just under eight new players each season, way too much turnover to establish a stable program. Of the 13 players on this season's roster, six were JUCO (three) or transfers (three). The Bulls' front court will feature two returning starters from last season, August Gilchrist (28.4 MPG, 14.4 PPG, 6.0 RPG) and Ron Anderson (22.5 MPG, 7.0 PPG, 6.4 RPG), both transfers. Gilchrist who sat a year at (and never suited up for) Maryland, will team with Anderson who transferred in from Kansas State after one season. This is the last season for both. Junior Toarlyn Fitzpatrick (14.2 MPG, 4.3 PPG, 4.1 RPG) will rejoin the rotation. Newcomers include Arizona State transfer Victor Rudd and freshman center Jordan Omogbehin. Senior (two year walkon) Alberto Damour will see a few minutes. A rotation of returners, Jawanza Poland (27.0 MPG, 9.1 PPG, 1.06 SPG), Shaun Noriega (16.5 MPG, 6.4 PPG) and Hugh Robertson (30.1 MPG, 8.3 PPG, 1.8 APG) will man the wings with help from newcomer Victor Rudd from Arizona State. Look for JUCO Blake Nash (6-0, 185 lbs) to get first crack at the point, with bench player LaVonte Dority and true freshman Anthony Collins (6-1, 175 lbs) to back him up. Heath has to solve problems on both sides of the ball. While the defense yielded a horrible 1.09 points per possession, the offense countered with a very anemic 0.97 points per possession of it's own. Heath needs points on offense, as their 46.0% eFG% conversion rate in conference play would suggest. The Bulls must also staunch a 22.5% turnover rate in conference play was the highest in the conference. A good point guard should help, so if Nash struggles, the Bulls may well flounder.

An out of conference slate that includes a VCU rematch (in Richmond, VA) and three road games, two with power conference opponents (Kansas and Auburn) and non-BCS Southern Mississippi of CUSA, is not overwhelming, but should offer the Bulls faithful a chance to see their team compete against solid competition. VCU and Kansas should contend for conference honors (and may well return to the NCAAs), while Auburn and Southern Mississippi will finish in lower halves of their respective conferences. Beating the Jayhawks or Rams would force a re-evaluation, but losing to the Tigers or Golden Eagles could foretell a pattern that should play out in the conference season. The Bulls drew Pittsburgh, Providence and Villanova as conference mirrors which, Pitt aside, could have raised interesting prospects for Heath's program. 0-6 would be a disaster, but 2-4 might be the ceiling, with the Bulls dropping two to the Panthers, and either splitting with the other two or sweeping one of Villanova or Providence. 1-5 is a real possibility, especially if South Florida cannot stop the bleeding on either side of the ball. Among the conference teams they host, the best opportunities for wins would include Rutgres, Seton Hall and St. John's, all of whom they see before the third week in January. Picking through the road slate, DePaul offers the best opportunity for a win, which suggests a ceiling of maybe five conference wins. The Bulls could collect fewer.

Most Likely to...(and why):
Move up a Quartile -- Rutgers. Coach Rice's recruiting has been energetic, but few would know it given the job (and headlines) done by St. John's Steve Lavin. If the veterans produce and the freshmen get with the program (and do not develop a case of freshman fatigue), look for the Scarlet Knights to surprise a few teams and close out with a florish. The greatest uncertainty continues to be depth and whether the players they have can be competitive in the Big East Conference.

To Draw #16 Seed... -- South Florida It is tough to win when the roster turns overs as much as the Bulls' has the past few seasons. Coach Heath's tendency to favor JUCOs and transfers (too often problem children...) over freshmen trades quick wins for a stable roster that offered freshmen players the opportunity to develop.

Mia Culpa, Mia Maxima Culpa, 2011

Confessions & Observations...
I am a bit late with the previews this time around. The preseason was pre-empted with news and speculation about team movements among three BCS conferences and two-to-three nonBCS conferences, a process that seemed at times to take all of the oxygen out of the room. An especially distressing development as I was again reminded of the miniscule impact basketball had on the calculus of movement. Time to take a quick review of last season...

	2010-11 Actual					Proj.
Team	W	L	Pct	Seed	Qtl	Qtl
Cincinnati	11	7	0.611	7	2	3
Connecticut	9	9	0.500	9	3	3
DePaul	1	17	0.056	16	4	4
Georgetown	10	8	0.556	8	2	1
Louisville	12	6	0.667	4	1	2
Marquette	9	9	0.500	11	3	2
Notre Dame	14	4	0.778	2	1	3
Pittsburgh	15	3	0.833	1	1	1
Providence	4	14	0.222	14	4	4
Rutgers	5	13	0.278	13	4	4
Seton Hall	7	11	0.389	12	3	3
St. John's	12	6	0.667	5	2	2
South Florida	3	15	0.167	15	4	4
Syracuse	12	6	0.667	4	1	2
Villanova	9	9	0.500	10	3	1
West Virginia	11	7	0.611	6	2	1

Through a Looking Glass Darkly...
Ugh. It was a great season for the conference, as the Big East pulled down 11 invitaitons to the NCAA post season tournament, a record high for a conference, and with 68.8% of the members drawing bids, a record for post season money earned. Too bad the conference struggled in tournament play, moving only Marquette as far as the Sweet Sixteen last March. Though talk throughout the season centered on the notion that 11 bids were possible, I was a bit late to the party. I believed that the teams not invited would have to absorb a large number of losses (to insure most of the conference would have at least a 0.500 record) while those likely to draw the bids would have to split amongst themselves. Insuring the "perfect storm", the balance of Division I would have to relatively poor by comparison. It seems Division I was accomodating (unexpectedly) -- consider Butler, despite an unsteady 3-4 start that included a loss to Evansville, nevertheless ran to a consecutive Final Four, upsetting Pittsburgh before falling to #9 ranked (in conference play) Connecticut in the Championship Game. Within the Big East, sorting out the teams doomed to struggle was far easier than identifying the teams that would succeed.

Misses Mostly...
If I predicted the fourth quartile to the team, I missed pretty badly elsewhere. Of the four teams projected for first quartile finishes (Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Villanova and West Virginia), two (Georgetown and West Virgnia) finished in the second quartile while one (sigh, Villanova) fell all the way to the third quartile. I did manage to identify one second quartile finisher correctly (Cincinnati, though I would not have guessed they would finish higher than Villanova) to go with two third quartile finishers (Connecticut! -- right answer, wrong reason -- and Seton Hall). Notre Dame, a third quartile team in my projection ran to an excellent 14-4 record to finish #2, good for a BET bye seed and first quartile finish. I correctly placed half of the conference (within a quartile), but missed by two quartiles on two teams. Ouch.

What's Next
I decided to revert to a quartile-by-quartile preview, providing thumbnails of each team projected to finish in that specific quartile. The quartile previews will be posted over the course of this week. Other projects took time normally devoted to preparing the team-by-team previews, and I anticipated the addition of Texas Christian would preclude another oppportunity to preview the conference by fourths. Correct answer again, but for the wrong reason.

The Big East Conference 2012 -- Home & Road Opponents

Who Drew a Short Straw?
Most of the commentary about conference opponents has devolved into a recitation of the opposing slate laced with opinions (with a heavy reliance on memory and recollection...) of whether this player is returning, that recruit will make an impact and the other team was good/bad or will be better/worse than they were last season. With the many of the the "summer report" cycle winding down, many of the academic casualties going into the fall semester still unannounced, the NCAA Clearing House yet to process many in the incoming class, there is more speculation than fact available when looking at the home-away slates...

Maters of Their Domains?
Win the home games -- one of the first rules of conference play, comes into play every season. Running the home slate will not guarantee a top finish in conference play (think of Louisville's 9-0 record at the Yum! last season; the Cards still finished in a three-way tie for third and took the #4 seed at Madison Square Garden), but doing just better than 0.500 will not get your team into the bye seeds (think Villanova's #9 seed on a 5-4 home record). If your team is expected to challenge for a bye seed, which suggests your favorites ought to be able to go toe-to-toe with the conference heavyweights (...which would suggest your team is one of the conference heavyweights...), then common sense would dictate that the toughest opponents should come to visit. On homecourt your guys have the high ground. On the other hand, you your team is struggling for respectability, and a place in the post season conversation, then running up a big home court record (and taking your lumps on the road...) would be the better strategy...assuming your guys can keep it respectable on the road. Excluding the mirrors (I looked at those pairings in an earlier post), which teams got a draw that works for their strategy? I looked at home opponents...

	Opps	Ret.
Team	PWP	Min%	Comments
Seton Hall	0.448	0.491	'Ville, NDU & Pitt!
DePaul	0.441	0.645	Not a good draw for needs
St. John's	0.421	0.631	Thrown into the deep end?
Syracuse	0.414	0.519	What they want
Connecticut	0.408	0.494	A puzzle?
Rutgers	0.396	0.556	'Nati & Cuse
Marquette	0.387	0.476	A rebuilding year?
Notre Dame	0.380	0.687	A lot of routs in South Bend
Georgetown	0.369	0.556	RU, USF & PC...
Louisville	0.366	0.538	Swap Rutgers for 'Nati?
West Virginia	0.363	0.612	'Vill & 'Nati toughest
Providence	0.362	0.547	Host the Huskies
South Florida	0.352	0.432	Favorable for Bulls?
Cincinnati	0.337	0.678	Returning mins high
Villanova	0.331	0.661	See above
Pittsburgh	0.330	0.486	Cincinnati and...?!

The table orders the conference by average Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) of the non-mirror visiting teams. I also averaged that slate's returning minutes, to give myself an idea of whether each team would face a home slate with personnel similar to the personnel they faced in 2011. The conference average for returning minutes next season (as of July...) is 56.1%. The results brought a few surprises.

One of the more interesting questions is where Connecticut will fit in 2012. The Huskies, who finished #9 in the conference last season with a 4-5 road record, and will not have the services of Kemba Walker (or Jamal Coombs-McDaniels) next season, remain an enigma. Georgetown, Louisville and Villanova may count themselves lucky in that they get to host a sophomore-dominated squad next season without having to take a rematch in Storrs. St. John's, which returns all of 4.8% of their 2011 minutes (and 3.7% of their scoring), is another wildcard. Coach Steve Lavin will have an extremely talented -- but extremely young -- roster to mold. The Red Storm sported a relatively modest 0.333 road PWP last season, even lower than their 4-5 record would suggest. But given the virtual makeover for 2012, even 0.333 may be an overstatement. Will Marquette, Pittsburgh and Seton Hall regret not drawing the Johnnies at the Garden as a swap for say Notre Dame, Syracuse and Cincinnati (repsectively)? Though most expect Pittsburgh to contend again next season (Jamie Dixon has the best conference record of any Big East coach over the past five seasons), the Panthers cannot look to a favorable schedule mix as a boost. Of their non-mirror visitors, Cincinnati (0.447), Georgetown (0.425) and Villanova (0.405) have the highest road PWPs in 2011 conference games. Of those three, only the Bearcats return more than the conference average for minutes next season. For Cincinnati, the high percentage of returning minutes, combined with high percentage of returning scoring from their visitors will make matching their 2011 conference home record (6-3) a challenge. If the Bearcats want to move into the conference elites however, they will have to dominate that slate.

...And On the Road
The road strategy reverses for those aspiring to bye bids -- take the weakest teams in their buildings. For those struggling in conference play, opportunities to win are maximized at home, so take the conference elites on the road and hope to stem the bleeding in the low double digits...

	Opps	Ret.
Team	PWP	Min%	Comments
Louisville	0.710	0.484	St. John's & WVU skew mins
Notre Dame	0.706	0.471	Johnnies, Hoyas & Hall
Villanova	0.692	0.449	Johnnies, Hoyas & RU skew
DePaul	0.683	0.525	What Demons need?
Providence	0.679	0.503	Good for need?
Georgetown	0.666	0.616	'Ville, Pitt & Cuse Oh my!
South Florida	0.643	0.653	DPU only road softie...
Rutgers	0.620	0.627	Matches bubble strategy
Pittsburgh	0.620	0.633	UConn, NDU & Cuse
Seton Hall	0.616	0.654	Cuse & Nova
Marquette	0.612	0.650	Irish, Orange & 'Eers
Syracuse	0.593	0.487	Good match to need
West Virginia	0.580	0.553	Cuse & Huskies
St. John's	0.567	0.555	If team struggles...ouch
Cincinnati	0.558	0.521	A good match for need
Connecticut	0.521	0.596	Tailored to need?

I calculated the PWP for road games (conference only) for each team and averaged those road PWPs for each team's slate of opponents. Again mirrors have been excluded.

For Connecticut, Syracuse, De Paul and Providence, the slate matches the strategy pretty well. The Demons and Friars want wins, and conceding road games to the stronger teams in the conference in exchange for favorable home matchups should be cause for little concern. Each drew a challenging road slate that features Cincinnati and Notre Dame. The Huskies and Orange, by contrast, want their weakest opponents on the road, on the assumption they will beat them no matter where they play. Both feature road games with Rutgers, but other fourth quartile finishers are listed among each team's mirrors. Coach Calhoun's squad will see the Bulls, who sport the weakest 2011 home PWP this side of De Paul. Coach Boeheim drew De Paul, owner of the weakest home PWP last season. Syracuse also drew rebuilding St. John's. If the Storm struggles, this could prove to be a hidden bonus.

Exclusions, Exceptions...ie The Fine Print
The dynamics of a team are not especially predictable. It is rarely in a coach's (or school's) interests to disclose that half the squad does not want to play ball with the other half, or is planning to transfer at the end of the season. Injuries have derailed a team's season and a player's career, and yet remain among the wildcards. Players sometimes behave badly, the type of situation that most fans see far more clearly after the fact than before. All of those however are random and absolutely unknowable. The as yet uncharted elements that can impact a team's ability to successfully navigate their conference schedule...
1. Chronology & Sequence -- will the team draw the easier opponents earlier or later in the conference season? The distribution of "difficulty" might seem even in the preseason or early season, but unknowable events can strengthen or weaken slate as the season progresses. Villanova looked like a world beater eight games into their 2011 conference slate, having taken down Syracuse by double digits on the road, but four weeks later they could not beat South Florida on a neutral court.
2. Home/Away Distribution -- Though the conference tries to schedule no more than two consecutive away games, circumstances can make that impossible. A school may schedule an away out of conference opponent at the beginning or end of an away sequence, adding a level of difficulty (TV money can cloud judgement that way).
3. Youth vs. Maturity -- Common wisdom suggests freshmen-dominated squads "wear out" in the latter stages of the season. Balance that nugget with a countervailing common wisdom notion that freshmen progress as the season lengthens (think Jeremy Lamb here). How can we use that information when determining if the 'Eers (who return 39% of their minutes and 45% of their scoring) will be a better team to host than visit? How about St. John's, which returns 5% or their minutes and 4% of their scoring?

Thoughts on the Wildcats' Slate
The home-road slates are a mixed bag that would help if Villanova proves to be a bubble team next season. The 'Cats, who bring back 52% of their playing time and 47% of their scoring should benefit from drawing a comparatively weak home slate. Leaving out the mirrors, the 'Cats should be able to handle Seton Hall and De Paul, two teams they barely beat at the end of the 2011 season, not to mention Providence, a team that cleaned their clocks, all on the road last season. A youngr Connecticut squad (the Huskies swept the 'Cats in 2011) will visit as well. On the road, Pitt and Louisville will be tough unless everything falls into place for the 'Cats. Georgetown will depend as much on how well the new Hoyas gell as on the Wildcats' maturity. Villanova will revisit Rutgers, a team that beat them in overtime last season, and as been mentioned before, the enigmatic Johnnies will pose a challenge.

Roster Moves -- After the NBA Draft Deadline

Outbound Undergraduates
The Spring Signing Period is over, and the deadline for undergraduates to pull their names from the NBA draft has come and gone. The rosters of the Big East are hardly complete, but with the NBA draftees known and the first wave of outbound transfers identified, it seems a good time to pause and take stock of who (graduating seniors aside...) who else will not return to school in the fall. The Big East's undergraduate contribution to NBA draft list this time around seems light, and that is a good thing. The transfer list on the other hand, seems about as big as prior seasons (2009, when the economic uncertainties persuaded nearly everyone, coaches and players alike, to put "moving plans" on hold, excepted), depressingly so. The usual suspects (South Florida, Louisville, Georgetown) contribute their fair share to the outbound migration...

Connecticut

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Jamal Coombs-McDaniel	6-7	Forward	Soph.	Trans - TBD
Kemba Walker	6-0	Guard	Junior	NBA

Though a junior, most in the Huskie Nation believed this would be Kemba Walker's last season in Storrs. The dynamic guard did not disappoint, delivering Coach Jim Calhoun a third National Championship before declaring for the NBA draft. If Walkers' departure was anticipated, Jamal Coombs-McDaniel's exit was not. Connecticut voluntarily surrendered a men's basketball scholarship as part of the penalty in the Nate Miles Affair. News in mid-May that their APR fell below the NCAA-mandated limit of 825 meant that the Huskies would yield two more next season. That leaves Coach Jim Calhoun with 10 scholarships to distribute next season. For a coach used to having a rotation of 10 or 11 players available, next season should be a very different experience. Losing Coombs-McDaniel, a rising junior who has been a contributor for two seasons, will hurt.

DePaul

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Michael Bizoukas	6-1	Guard	Junior	Missouri State

Michael Bizoukas is a red shirt junior holdover from the Coach Wainwright Era. A sometime starter over the course of his three seasons at DePaul, his role would most likely have been reduced as Coach Purnell brought in more players he took a more direct hand in recruiting. Bizoukas should be able to contribute right away at Missouri State,

Georgetown

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Vee Sanford	6-3	Guard	Soph.	Dayton
Jerrelle Benimon	6-7	Forward	Soph.	Trans - TBD

Though neither of the sophomores, forward Jerrelle Benimon and guard Vee Sanford were (per Ken Pomeroy) significant contributors to the Hoya offense, the loss of both is yet another example of an ongoing problem at Georgetown in the Coach Thompson Era -- the outbound transfer of many supporting players. A too short bench has come back to bite the Hoyas at times in the last three seasons. The Hoyas anticipate having 12 scholarship players available in 2012, with five of those players incoming freshmen. An untimely injury or two can expose the squad.

Louisville

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Terrence Jennings	6-10	Forward	Junior	NBA
George Goode	6-8	Forward	Junior	Trans - TBD

Though he played behind Samardo Samuels for two seasons and he did not have the impact season he might have wanted, junior forward Terrence Jennings declared for the NBA draft and will not return to Louisville next season. The status of red shirt junior George Goode however is less clear. Early in the off season the forward was linked with rising sophomore Russ Smith as a pair who would follow Assistant Coach Steve Masiello to Manhattan College, play immediately (5th year senior) and finish out his career in the MAAC. With the normally chaotic scholarship situation at Louisville (right now they have 12 "on scholarship", with two more "verbals" on tap...that does not include the three walk-ons) even more up in the air this off season, is it possible that Goode might be back? Stay tuned...



Marquette

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Reggie Smith	6-0	Guard	Frosh.	UNLV
Erik Williams	6-7	Forward	Soph.	Sam Houston State

Freshman Reggie Smith had already settled in a UNLV before the start of the spring semester. Forward Erik Williams is another story. The Texan was little used during most of the season, accumulating about 11% of the available minutes at the #4 per Ken Pomeroy. Williams did earn 11 starts over the course of the season, though Cracked Sidewalks points out that "...Buzz Williams decided to start Williams at the beginning of each half in nine of MU's final 10 games to reduce Jae Crowder's penchant for foul trouble. During that stretch, only once did Williams log more than 10 minutes -- the home blowout of Providence -- and he failed to score in half of those contests...". A homecoming of sorts, Williams should find a larger offensive role at Sam Houston State. And Coach Buzz Williams will continue to draw Texas players up to Milwaukee.

Notre Dame

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Carleton Scott	6-8	Forward	Junior	NBA

Limited to a role player and having an additional year of eligibility available, Carleton Scott nevertheless threw his lot with the NBA draft this spring. Noted for defensive rebounding and scoring inside the arc, as a veteran contributor Scott will be missed. But it could have been worse, Coach Brey and the Notre Dame faithful can look forward to one last season from fifth year senior Tim Abromaitis.

Pittsburgh

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
J.J. Richardson	6-7	Forward	Soph.	Houston

Though he tore up the courts in the Panthers' Irish Tour last summer, JJ Richardson had difficulty carving his niche in the rotation with sophomore Dante Taylor, junior Nasir Robinson and red shirt freshman Talib Zanna ahead of him. A native of Texas, Richardson decided to go home and try again with Houston.

Seton Hall

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Anali Okoloji	6-8	Forward	Frosh.	George Mason
Ferrakohn Hall	6-8	Forward	Soph.	Memphis

Sophomore Ferrakohn Hall was a reluctant recruit dating back to his freshman season, the tumultuous last season for Coach Bobby Gonzalez. Persuaded to try another season, Hall lasted a semester and decided to transfer back home, finding a place in Coach Josh Pastner's Memphis program. Anali Okoloji was an early recruit for current Coach Kevin Willard, but freshman forward saw only spot minutes playing behind fellow freshman Patrik Auda.

South Florida

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Mike Burwell	6-6	Guard	Soph.	Towson
Shedrick Haynes	6-0	Guard	Junior	Tarleton St.

Like St. John's under former coach Norm Roberts, the South Florida program is acquiring a turnstile-like quality. The latest outbound transfers include sophomore guard Mike Burwell and JUCO Shedrick Haynes. Though he appeared in 31 of the Bulls' 33 games (and started five), Burwell logged a total of 251 minutes, averaging about eight minutes per appearance. Haynes appeared in 25 games, averaging about six minutes per appearance. Both should see more playing time at their next stop. Coach Stan Heath has replacements lined up already.

St. John's

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Dwayne Polee	6-7	Forward	Frosh.	Trans - TBD
Quincy Roberts	6-5	Guard	Soph.	Trans - TBD

From viturally his first week on the job, St. John's Coach Steve Lavin has been shaking up the recruiting trail, compiling an impressive list of signees. While most understood that his very large 2010 senior class would require a large incoming 2011-12 class to replace them, few expected to see even more roster spots created by outbound transfers. Sophomore guard Quincy Roberts showed flashes in his freshman season, but an injury sidelined him in Coach Norm Roberts' last season, and the red shirt sophomore appeared in four games in the 2011 season, so his transfer is not a surprise. Freshman Dwayne Polee was one of the players the Red Storm staff consciously groomed for leadership going into the 2012 season. One of the few returning players with starting responsibilities in 2011, Polee seemed to be a player the staff looked to to form the nucleus of the next generation of St. John's teams.

West Virginia

Player	Hgt	Pos	Class	Dest.
Dan Jennings	6-8	Forward	Soph.	Trans - TBD
Dalton Pepper	6-5	Guard	Soph.	Temple

The subject of frequent transfer rumors in his freshman year, Dalton Pepper finally pulled the trigger after the 2011 season. At one time recruited by virtually all of Philadelphia's Division 1 teams, Pepper's eventual decision to cast his lot with Coach Fran Dunphy and his Temple Owls is entirely reasonable. Fellow sophomore Dan Jennings appeared in 14 games last season, starting in four. Jennings was most active in the Mountaineers' out of conference schedule, but left the bench two minutes into the second half of West Virginia's South Florida game and did not appear in any game after. Will he be missed? Not much according to Coach Bob Huggins.

Early Season Invitational Tournaments -- 2011-12

Where the Big East Will Play Their Exempt Games
A post over at John Templon's new blog venture, Big Apple Buckets put me on to Blogging the Bracket's Early Season Invitational page. Chris Dobbertean has pulled together information about the fields for 20 tournaments, along with seven campus-only round robin multi-team events (MTEs) that appear to be in the process of forming fields that qualify for exempt tournament status.

	Tournament	Gms	Dates
Cincinnati	Round Robin Event?	4	TBD
Connecticut	Battle 4 Atlantis	3	Nov. 23-27
DePaul	Old Spice Classic	3	Nov. 24, 25 & 27
Georgetown	Maui Invitational	4	Nov. 21-23 (& campus)
Louisville	Round Robin Event?	4	TBD
Marquette	Paradise Jam	4	Nov. 18-21
Notre Dame	CBE Classic	4	Nov. 21-22 (& campus)
Pittsburgh	TBD	-	NA
Providence	South Padre Invitational	4	Nov. 25-26 (& campus)
Rutgers	Cancun Challenge	4	Nov. 14-19 (campus); Nov. 22-23
Seton Hall	Charleston Classic	3	Nov. 17, 18, 20
South Florida	Hall of Fame Tip-Off	4	Nov. 12, 14, 19-20
St. John's	Coaches vs. Cancer Classic	4	2 pod; Nov. 17, 18
Syracuse	NIT Tip-Off	4	Nov. 23, 25 (& campus)
Villanova	76 Classic	3	Nov. 24, 25 & 27
West Virginia	Las Vegas Classic	3	Christmas time?

Notes & Observations1. The two tournaments noted with question marks are unconfirmed, but seem to have varying degrees of certainty per Dobbertean's post of 4/27/11. Cincinnati appears to have a two year commitment to an event named "Global Sports Shootout". This season the games will center on the Bearcats' homecourt at Fifth-Third. Louisville, per Dobbertean, is close to forming/hosting an MTE of it's own out of the KFC Center in Louisville, which makes sense as the arena is brand new and Louisville scheduled quite a few events there last season. Pittsburgh appears to be the only Big East team not committed to an invitational tournament at this time.
2. The Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament will premier this season. Set on Paradise Island, Bahamas, the tournament will feature a possible match-up of Connecticut and Massachusetts. Those two regional rivals have not played since December of 2005. The series, which spanned 100 years and 108 games, has been on "hiatus" for the past five years.
3. The Las Vegas Classic is also new this season, and, like the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii, will be played during the Christmas season, rather than over Thanksgiving. That tournament will also feature a campus-hosted preliminary round that will precede the final two rounds in Las Vegas. Three hosting teams (Baylor, Missouri State and West Virginia) are the only teams committed so far. The sponsors need to find five more teams to fill out the field.
4. Syracuse, a team (like Pittsburgh) with a reputation for staying close to home in the season's first two months, will, according to Dobbertean (via John Rothstein), participate in the NIT Tip-Off. The preliminary round(s) are hosted at a campus site (perfect for the Carrier Dome), with the semi-finals and finals at Madison Square Garden, and that fits Syracuse's preferences to a tee.
5. Villanova will participate in the 76 Classic in Anaheim, California over the Thanksgiving Weekend. The field...

Team	Conf		Team	Conf
Boston College	ACC		New Mexico	MWC
Oklahoma	Big 12		UC Riverside	Big West
Saint Louis	A-10		Santa Clara	WCC
Washington St.	PAC-10

Five teams in the field won 20 or more games in 2010, while Oklahoma will have a new coach. Featured coaches in the field include Saint Louis' Rick Majerus and Villanova's Jay Wright, both of whom have been to the Final Four.
6. Coming into May, the fields for only nine of the 20 tournaments listed at Blogging the Bracket are filled. Several of the campus + travel tournaments have yet to even fill out their "host" brackets, while several have identified half or less of their projected field. Commitments for these tournaments used to be given years in advance, and it was not uncommon for the field in the coming year to be announced at the end of the tournament. This off season there seem to be more than the usual number of open/available spots in a few of the more prestigious -- the Charleston Classic, the CvC Classic and the CBE for example -- which makes me wonder if the exempt tournament niche has reached the saturation point. The first wave of tournaments after exempt tournaments no longer needed to apply for waivers from the NCAA forced a number of the more exotic locations (Top of the World Shootout) out of the field. Will there be a similar shakeout in the next season or two?

On Second Thought -- Plotting Trendlines for Big East Teams (pt 1)

What Funny Shapes Can Teach Us...
I liked tj's original post on mapping Michigan State's efficiency trends during the 2008 season when I read read it years ago, mapping the trend over time could be useful. The graph itself however was visually busy; the trendlines got lost as MSU's offensive and defensive efficiencies (points per possession scored and allowed) gyrated, game-by-game. Which leads us to the real problem of measuring team efficiency over a series of games (in conference out of conference, through a tournament, etc.) -- adjusting the performance to account for the competition. The conference regular season, which offered a more balanced schedule than a composite out of conference slate of opponents, should be a better context for judging performance over time. The bloggers over at Maize-Colored Glasses Blog put together an outstanding set of alphabetically correct posts that mapped each Big Ten team's trends over the course of conference play. I was so impressed with the methodologies described in the "Polynomial-centric Recap: Part 1" that I decided to apply the method (unadjusted and adjusted) for a similar look at the Big East. I describe the techniques later in this post. From the bottom up, (alphabetically correct of course) the conference's last five teams shared some features. The conference standings/seeds for the Big East Tournament:

	W	L	Pct.
Pittsburgh	15	3	0.833
Notre Dame	14	4	0.776
Syracuse	12	6	0.667
Louisville	12	6	0.667
St. John's	12	6	0.667
Cincinnati	11	7	0.611
West Virginia	11	7	0.611
Georgetown	10	8	0.556
Connecticut	9	9	0.500
Villanova	9	9	0.500
Marquette	9	9	0.500
Seton Hall	7	11	0.389
Rutgers	5	13	0.278
Providence	4	14	0.222
South Florida	3	15	0.167
DePaul	1	17	0.056

(16 #16) DePaul

Not an ironic commentary on DePaul's season...honest

I rechecked the numbers and calculations when the fish appeared. The unadjusted trendlines look much the same. Coach Oliver Purnell will bring the program along next season, but seeing offense and defense move in such a symmetrical way throughout the entire season suggests (perhaps) that some nights his young Blue Demon squad got it and other nights not at all. The late season "fish tail" was probably a morale-induced slump. More experienced players should make a difference.

(14 #14) Providence

It was the defense...again

Throughout the Tim Welsh and Keno Davis Eras the Friars have been a Notre Dame Lite -- good offense but little defense. This season was no exception, and Marshon Brooks alone could not carry the team night-in and night-out. Lack of progress no doubt the catalyst that led to Davis' departure, Ed Cooley has been charged to turn things around. One common trait of the teams in the fourth quartile is that the defensive efficiency trendline never falls below the team's offensive efficiency trendline. Though everyone of the four team that finished #13 through #16 won at least one game, winning was neither prevalent (all had winning percentages <0.400) nor sustained for any period of the conference season.

(13 #13) Rutgers

An end of season rally...

The unadjusted trendline suggests the Rutgers players were "getting it" -- Coach Mike Rice's system as the season progressed. Though the Scarlet Knights went 1-3 through the last four games, the defense appears to have stabilized even as their offensive efficiency improved. Note that by the 18th game (a season-ending, 74-75 loss to Providence), trendlines for offensive and defensive efficiency seem poised to cross. And the Knights went on to win their next game, 76-70 in overtime over Seton Hall in the Tuesday night round of the Big East Tournament. The trendline chart adjusted for the competition however suggests something a bit different...

...or a modest slump?

Providence and DePaul, teams that finished #14 and #16 respectively, were Rutgers' last two regular season opponents. The Knights' performance (a 1-1 record on games with margins of +3 and -1 points), coupled with the "fish tail" curve of the trendlines suggest that the team was slumping more than rallying, as the season drew to a close. The win over Seton Hall, an instate rival with whom the Scarlet Knights drew 1-1 on the season, does not refute the trend. It will be interesting to see what Coach Rice does with a squad made up largely of players he recruited.

(12 #12) Seton Hall

The trendlines are consistent with a losing record...

The trendlines converge and cross just before the end of the season (for the curious, game #14 for the Pirates was Villanova). The wave motion is similar to South Florida's (see below), but unlike the teams that finished #13 - #16, the trendline for the Pirates' offensive efficiency crossed to the north of their defensive efficiency trendline, an element the Hall held in common with the other 11 members who finished in the upper three quartiles.

Coach Willard's system was beginning to work

The Hall's last two regular season games, both wins, over St. John's and Marquette, were a huge boost for the adjusted numbers. The Johnnies were seeded #5 in the Big East Tournament and managed to draw a #6 seed in the NCAA Tournament, while Marquette finished the Big East regular season with a 9-9 record, drew a #11 seed in the NCAA Tournament and ran to the Sweet Sixteen.

(15 #15) South Florida

The wave pattern?

Having finished #9, drawing an NIT bid and losing Dominique Jones all in 2010, the Bulls were poised for a rebuilding year, and 2011 lived down to those expectations. The wave pattern (the adjusted version above is consistent with the unadjusted trendlines), which features the trendline for defensive efficiency always above the offensive efficiency trendline, by (more or less) a consistent margin, throughout the conference season. With a 3-15 conference record (10-23 overall) and a cumulative conference record of 51-77 in 4 seasons, I wonder, lacking a clear sign of improvement next season, how much longer Coach Stan Heath will pace the sidelines in Tampa.

Methods & Sources
I used Ken Pomeroy's website, specifically each Big East team's gameplan pages, as the data source for each team's offensive and defensive efficiencies for each conference game played (many thanks to Ken Pomeroy for providing this invaluable resource for the past eight seasons). I plotted the data points for offense and defense and then applied a third order polynomial to map the trend line. Those charts are captioned as "Unadjusted" in this and subsequent posts. The conference average for points per possession in 2011 (conference games only) was 1.037. I adjusted each team's offensive and defensive points per possession for each game using the formulas documented by the Maize-Colored Glasses Blog...
offensive adjustment -- (100 x points per possession)/(1-(opponents average points per possession allowed - conference-wide average points per game allowed)). Given the Big East average points per possession was 1.037, that simplified the adjustment to (100 x points per possession)/(opponents average points per possession allowed - 0.037)
defensive adjustment -- (100 x points per possession allowed)/(opponents average points per possession - 0.037)
A strong defensive effort against Notre Dame would be properly weighted versus a strong defensive effort against DePaul.

Offensive points per possession for each team (ordered by PPP Scored):

		PPP
	Team	Scored
1	Notre Dame	1.130
2	Pittsburgh	1.105
3	Marquette	1.103
4	Syracuse	1.078
5	Villanova	1.077
6	West Virginia	1.049
7	Louisville	1.034
8	Cincinnati	1.030
9	Georgetown	1.026
10T	St. John's	1.022
10T	Connecticut	1.022
12	Providence	1.010
13	Rutgers	1.009
14	South Florida	0.972
15T	Seton Hall	0.958
15T	DePaul	0.958

Defensive points per possession for each team (ordered by fewest points per possession allowed):

		PPP
	Team	Allowed
1	Pittsburgh	0.960
2	Louisville	0.967
3	Cincinnati	0.981
4	Seton Hall	0.987
5	Syracuse	0.989
6	St. John's	1.001
7T	West Virginia	1.004
7T	Connecticut	1.004
9	Georgetown	1.037
10	Notre Dame	1.055
11	Villanova	1.062
12	Marquette	1.070
13	Rutgers	1.082
14	South Florida	1.094
15	Providence	1.111
16	DePaul	1.172

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Big East Tournament, Day 2

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY - The action, recap and assorted numbers of importance from day two.

the Garden is packed!

The scores...

Team	Score			Team
UConn	79		62	Georgetown
St. John's	65		63	Rutgers
Cincinnati	87		61	South Florida
Marquette	67		61	West Virginia

Coverage in person was limited to the evening session. No need to remind anyone but the burning issue of the day was centered around the conclusion of the Rutgers-St.John's contest. Also, to little surprise, officiating was very much in the conversation.

Marquette's Darius Johnson-Odom
meets the media

Game of the Day -- Marquette & West Virginia
The pace and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Marquette	61	110
West Virginia	61	100

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Marquette	52	33	31	16
West Virginia	49	22	28	21

Outstanding care of the ball by Marquette. Overall they had 10 turnovers. West Virginia had 13 but many were the variety of which you pay. Not just throwing the ball out of bounds but leading to an opposition score. Marquette had a 16-7 edge in points off turnovers. Not a huge difference but significant in a two possession game as this.

Defense was a big part, as noted, of Marquette's second half surge. West Virginia led 36-29 at the break but was held to a 78 offensive efficiency. The last eight minutes the Mountaineers managed two field goals. Both by John Flowers and one on an offensive rebound.

Offensively Junior Cadougan broke down the WVU defense by dribble penetration. The Marquette sophomore guard finished (15 points) and was able to find teammates, distributing 5 assists.

West Virginia coach Bob Huggins did a good job mixing defenses. Thought going to a late game 1-3-1 was a good move as it showed Marquette a different look. The 'look' appealed to Darius Johnson-Odom who buried two key three pointers that gave Buzz Williams' club 'separation'. Suffice to say Huggins was back in a man following that second three pointer.

The three was a big weapon for West Virginia. They shot better from beyond the arc than for the game overall.

	FG	Pct.
3 FGs	10-22	46%
Overall	20-51	39%

Kevin Jones paced the Mountaineers with 15 points. The 6-8 junior enjoyed the perimeter hitting 3 of 4. Jones shot 5 of 9 in total. Interestingly his two point percentage (2 of 5 for 40%) significantly trailed the 755 (3 of 4) he hit from downtown.

Cincinnati coach Mick Cronin

Notes
All right, here's the take on game two. Saw the replays but as a long time official (23 years) will only say the crew had a lot to discuss in their post game evaluation.

UConn enjoyed a healthy 115-94 efficiency advantage in the win over Georgetown. Kemba Walker of UConn had a game high 28 points and an impressive Manley efficiency of 28. Walker contributed more rebounds (6) than assists (3). UConn, a solid 17% TO rate. Georgetown, a 24% rate (having point guard Chris Wright out of the lineup is a significant setback) that did not help matters.

Rutgers had a notable 45% OReb percentage. The Scarlet Knights had a better TO rate (22%) than St. John's (24%). Damage was done as the Red Storm (still can't stand that name) had a 19-8 lead in points off turnovers.

Dwight Hardy paced St. John's with 17 points. Hardy was only 5 of 17 from the floor (0-3 from three) but did go 7-9 from the line.

Cincinnati shot 64% from two point range, holding South Florida to a 37% mark from the same area. Bulls lost point guard Anthony Crater (a familiar name to Villanova faithful) late in the first half due to an injury. South Florida trailed by 8 at the half but was routed the final 20 minutes. Coach Stan Heath did not blame the final half meltdown to Crater's absence. But it didn't help.

Both clubs did show good care of the ball. Cincinnati's TO rate was 18%, South Florida checked in at 17%. Bearcats dominated inside with a 40% OREB percentage (South Florida was 28%) and a 36-22 edge in points in the paint.

Yancy Gates of Cincy scored a game high 25 points an 10n of 11 shooting from the floor. The 6-9 junior did not attempt a three, no need to and had an excellent Manley efficiency of 28 (1.22 per minute eff.), in 23 minutes.

Augusts Gilchrist WAS South Florida's inside presence with 16 points 5 rebounds. Sophomore guard Shaun Noriega scored 12 points. Noriega has a nice touch and loves the trey. He was 4 of 7 beyond the arc and 0 for 2 from two point range.

Tomorrow, the quarterfinals. This should be 'feast week', at any rate the Madness truly continues.

Cincinnati cheerleaders

BET South Florida Post Game -- Illusions

That Last Minute Was a Doozy
Up 49-33 at the half, the Wildcats appeared to have shot their way out of the nasty 4-6 run over their last 10 games, which included a four game losing streak. Though Mouphtaou Yarou took a bad spill and left the game at the 4:58 mark of the first half, but even with that bad turn of events, the Wildcats seemed to have the boards and game flow under control. The second half reversal, one which saw the Bulls outscore the Wildcats by 17, 37-20, and win by a point on Anthony Crater's coast-to-coast run with 0:05 on the clock...was stunning.

The Athletic Department website posted the official boxscore and the AP wire story, "Villanova Falls Just Short...". The breakdown by halves...

Opponent:		University of South Florida
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	28.5	27.1	55.6
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	172.2	73.7	124.1		115.9	136.4	125.9
eFG%	72.2	22.2	52.2		52.1	52.2	52.1
TORate	14.1	18.4	16.2		10.5	18.4	14.4
OR%	63.6	25	40.7		29.4	46.7	37.5
FTA/FGA	37.0	77.8	53.3		54.2	69.6	61.7
FTM/FGA	37.0	66.7	48.9		33.3	56.5	44.7
ARate	37.5	0.0	30.0		60.0	45.5	52.4
Blk%	3.7	0.0	2.2		12.5	8.7	10.6
Stl%	10.4	7.8	9.2		3.5	10.5	7.0
PPWS	1.54	0.81	1.22		1.09	1.21	1.15
2FG%	60.0	30.8	46.4		41.7	52.9	48.3
3FG%	58.3	0.0	41.2		41.7	33.3	38.9
FT%	100.0	85.7	91.7		61.5	81.3	72.4
%2FG	36.7	40.0	37.7		30.3	48.6	40.0
%3FG	42.9	0.0	30.4		45.5	16.2	30.0
%FT	20.4	60.0	31.9		24.2	35.1	30.0

Fast or Slow? Good Offense = Good Defense?
A few posters in the 'Nova Nation wanted to know why the 'Cats "took the air our of the ball" in the second half. The two halves however showed the number of possessions varied by one -- maybe two -- between the two halves. Ex Wake Forest head coach Dino Gaudio suggested at one point that Coach Wright wanted to slow the game down, win big and do some confidence building for a squad that, at this point, must be seeing shadows. Pomeroy shows this game as one of the three lowest possession games this season. Villanova scorched the Bulls for 1.72 points per possession in the first half (the 172.2 in the Rating row, first half column is points per 100 possessions...). That conversion rate was unsustainable over the course of a 40 minute game for any team not named Notre Dame. The overlooked number -- 115.9 -- was South Florida's conversion rate, about 1.16 points per possession. That is a reasonable offensive output, about 0.13 points above the conference average, and tells the reader the 'Cats were ahead by virtue of an unsustainable offensive outburst, not because they had throttled the offensively challenged Bulls, nor because they a produced combination of good offense and good defense. The Bulls' shot conversion rate (eFG%) was, at apporoximately 52% for each half, consistent over the course of the game. By cutting down on turnovers and getting after their misses in the second half, the Bulls were able to hang with the 'Cats and chip away at the lead Villanova built in the first half.

Numbers...Next
For South Florida, Villanova becomes win number 10 in a 10-22 (so far) season. The Bulls face Cincinnati in Round #2 of the Big East Tournament. Villanova's record drops to 21-11, as the seniors, most from metropolitan New York City, play their last game in Madison Square Garden. The Wildcats wait for Selection Sunday to find out where they play next.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Big East Tournament, Day 1

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY - Day one in the books. Already a surprise of note.

Outside MSG early morning

The scores...

Team	Score			Team
UConn	97		71	DePaul
Rutgers	76	OT	70	Seton Hall
South Florida	70		69	Villanova
Marquette	87		66	Providence

Interesting how the opener and nightcap left little drama. The middle games held the most excitement. Decided to focus on a game of the day. At press row as Seton Hall-Rutgers was being played out I was certain this was it. A few hours later the opinion might have been altered. At any rate I will stay with that as greyCat will probably ring in and do a more thorough analysis of the latest Villanova setback.

Tip game one. start of the 'marathon'

Game of the Day -- Rutgers & Seton Hall
The pace and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Rutgers	74	103
Seton Hall	77	91

Both teams scored one field goal in overtime. Rutgers got to the line and capitalized. Defensively they also were able to get key stops. The OT efficiency and pace. Score was tied at 64 after regulation.

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Rutgers	12	100
Seton Hall	13	46

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Rutgers	52	48	26	19
Seton Hall	46	19	27	21

The offensive rebounding rates were close. The other factor getting you to the line is points in the paint. Seton Hall held a 32-26 edge there. The free throw disparity can be traced to Seton Hall trailing in OT and fouling late to extend the game. The other sign was 43% of the Hall attempts were from three point range. Rutgers took 32% of their FGAs beyond the arc.

Amber (L) and Reyna (R) of Seton Hall

Other stats were rather close. Even two point shooting, Rutgers checked in at 50% and the Hall was 47%. Probably the only separation was an intangible of toughness. Not saying the Hall did not have it but Rutgers weathered some adversity to regroup and get back in it. Rutgers trailed by 8 late the first half. Scarlet Knights also saw the pirates Jeremy Hazell hit a potentially momentum changing trey that tied the score just before the buzzer.

Hazell, led all scorers with 27 points. Rutgers’ Jonathan Mitchell paced his club with 25. Game saw three Seton Hall players and one from Rutgers foul out.

Recurring theme seen in the Dayton, Richmond and a few other contests : the Hall had a lead of significance but couldn’t build or sustain. And eventually lost the lead and the game.

Rutgers improved to 15-16 while the Hall finished 13-18.

Kevin Willard, Jeremy Hazell and Jeff Robinson
could only ponder what might have been

Notes
UConn imposed its will getting an 81 possession game against DePaul. Huskies held a significant 121-88 offensive efficiency advantage. Thy also did a job inside holding DePaul to 33% two point shooting.

Scoreboard tells it all

Villanova-South Florida was a mid fifty possession affair. My calculations had the Wildcats with a 128-123 OE gain. As noted it is rare to ‘win’ and OE and lose the game. Twice I have seen Villanova do that this season. Coincidence or just rotten luck?

In a low seventies possession nightcap, Marquette was all over PC with in OE, 116-93. Both teams did have outstanding TO rates as the Friars were 14% and Marquette 16%. Buzz Williams’ club got off to a great start and never looked back. Providence’s efficiency the first four minutes? Zero. They did not score until over five minutes were gone and Marquette had a double digit lead. And counting...

Yours truly with South Florida dance team