Departures -- Louisville Thru Pittsburgh

The Clearing Fog...Part 2 of 4
Before attempting to predict the shape of teams (and the conference) going into next season, I want to catalog the departures (graduating seniors, transfers and NBA draft hopefuls) and then consider the impact the departing players (and coaches) will have on the offense and defense of each program. If I have overlooked or misclassified anyone, please let me know. Identifying academic casualties will have to come later; schools are reluctant to make official announcements about grades (privacy issues), and summer school has yet to run it's course.

Louisville

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Reginald Delk	SR	G	Grad
Edgar Sosa	SR	PG	Grad
Jerry Smith	SR	G	Grad
Samardo Samuels	SO	F	NBA-In

In addition to solid rotation player Reginald Delk, the Cardinals lose three starters from the squad that finished 20-13 (11-7) and went to the NCAAs (eliminated in the first round, 77-62, by California). Were Edgar Sosa and Coach Pitino ever on the same page? Fans may debate whether Sosa is addition by subtraction, but there is near unanimous opinion that Samuels to the draft will hurt the front court. Jerry Smith never seemed to get on track in 2010. I will leave to Louisville fans to speculate whether his and Terrence Jennings' arrest in Jeffersonville, IN proved to be the "one too many distraction" for the team. Terrence Jennings will have the best opportunity to show what he can do in the low post next season, as will rising sophomore Payton Silva at the point. To this point the veterans have been complement players to two very talented classes (2009 and 2010); the staff will no doubt look for leaders from among those who will return next season. Coach Pitino brought in long-time friend and one-time assistant Ralph Willard to reshape the Cardinals' defense. Next season may be the best opportunity to see if the veteran pair still have their touch.

Marquette

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Maurice Acker	SR	G	Grad
David Cubillan	SR	G	Grad
Lazar Hayward	SR	F	Grad
Yousoupha Mbao	FR	C	Trans

Acker and Cubillan have been servicable rotation players, each of whom has had a good game or two to remember in years to come. But Lazar Hayward is a huge loss for the Golden Eagles, as virtually every game last season was a big game for him. Marquette may well continue to be plagued by the absence of a Big East-level low post player, but they will be well stocked with back court players and wings. Coach Buzz Williams has had two very (and, I have to confess, for me very unexpectedly) good seasons. He is a favorite, to fans of Marquette, the administration, and to fans of Big East basketball. The style is constant motion and energetic; Williams has players who will play that style again next season.

Notre Dame

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Tim Andree	SR	F	Grad
Ben Hansbrough	SR	G	Grad
Luke Harangody	SR	F	Grad
Tory Jackson	SR	G	Grad
Jonathan Peoples	SR	G	Grad

Tim Andree emerged to have a solid senior season, while Hanbrough and Peoples were both solid rotation contributors. Tory Jackson and Luke Harangody, four year starters will be hard to replace. Harangody was the Big East POY in 2009, but returned to lead the Irish (with teammate Jackson at the point) back to the NCAAs after a year in the NIT. Coach Mike Brey listened to offers from Oregon in April, but will return to South Bend to retool the team for next season. During his tenure at Notre Dame, Coach Brey has fashioned Notre Dame into one of the most consistently efficient offenses, and toughest home court opponents in the Big East. Expect it again next season.

Pittsburgh

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Chase Adams	SR	G	Grad
Jermaine Dixon	SR	G	Grad

Adams transferred in from Centenary late in August. While Coach Dixon worked him into the rotation, he was, as was understood at the time of his transfer, more an insurance policy than an impact player. Jermaine Dixon was a well regarded contributor, mostly on the wing. Gilbert Brown and others will be available next season. Coach Dixon continues to be one of the "most dropped" names whenever a BCS coaching position opens, and this off season was no different, as ADs from DePaul to Oregon "checked" with him before moving on to their eventual choices. Coach Dixon has a lot returning next season.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Breaking Down Two Seton Hall Games

by Ray Floriani

NEWARK, NJ - In the space of four days Seton Hall came up with two note worthy Big East wins at the Prudential Center.
First the Louisville game won by the Hall 80-77 on Thursday : In a 68 possession (Louisville 69 SHU 66) possession game, the Efficiency and Factors:

	Off		FTA
	Eff	eFG%	FGA	OReb%	TO%
Louisville	112	49	22	45	17
Seton Hall	121	57	31	47	20

Both teams had a high efficiency on the offensive end. Louisville has had some problems on the defensive end. The effort defense wise, was not a stellar effort by the Hall but they did do a nice job limiting post threat Samardo Samuels to just nine points. Edgar Sosa led the Cardinals with 15 points.

Both teams attempted 25 free throws and the Hall had the higher FT rate hitting 17 to the 14 of Louisville. Again the charity stripe is another sore spot for the Cards per coach Rick Pitino.

Hall had a balanced effort with five players in double figures and was led by Jeremy Hazell with 25 points. Hazell played a strong all around game as he added 5 rebounds and defended well.

Hall led by 13 with just under five minutes to play and barely held off the visitors as they closed strong taking advantage of several late Pirate turnovers.

Not a vintage Louisville team that is expected to play deep into March but a nice win over a Rick Pitino team, “that fights to the end,” per Gonzalez.

Seton Hall vs Pitt
On Sunday afternoon, Seton Hall defeated ninth ranked Pitt 64-61.

The factors and efficiency in a 66 possession (Pitt 66 SHU 65) game.

	Off		FTA
	Eff	eFG%	FGA	OReb%	TO%
Pitt	92	39	41	49	30
Seton Hall	99	46	21	26	15

Interesting that Gonzalez felt this was a slower game than the Louisville one. It was by about two possessions. The difference was more perception as Louisville and the Hall got out on occasion and ran. The Pitt game was a classic ‘grind it out’ half court affair.

Hall eventually beat Pitt at their own game with solid defense. It’s evident in the effective field goal mark and TO rate. Panthers had 20 TOs despite the Hall not full court pressing.

Ashton Gibbs of Pitt led all scorers with 23 points. Gibbs was 14 of 14 from the line and only 4 of 15 from the field.

Herb Pope was a huge factor inside. He had the touches shooting 8 of 12 finishing with a team high 19 points 9 boards.

Panthers, to no surprise, were tough on the boards. Raw figures saw a 39-25 rebounding edge, 16-8 on the offensive glass. Their board work was a major factor that kept them in and allowed them to battle back from an eleven point first half and eight point second half deficit.

Jeremy Hazell was limited to 16 minutes with foul trouble. He finished with 9 points and made a few big plays in the stretch.

Win was first over a top ten team during Gonzalez’s tenure. It capped a big momentum sweep as the Hall now faces South Florida, Villanova and Pitt their next three games, all on the road.

Pitt is 15-4 (5-2). Seton Hall improved to 12-6 (3-4).

The first minute:
A cue regarding tempo and interestingly, what was to transpire.

1. Hazell missed shot.
2. Pitt turnover
3. Theodore 10 foot jumper.
4. Foul Hazel… (possession continued)
2-0 SHU

“We need a better understanding of how to play. We are trying to get better but still have improvements to make.” - Pitt coach Jamie Dixon

“This is a great win. What Jamie Dixon ha done at Pitt is off the charts. I really think our West Virginia and Syracuse games earlier helped us win this game.” - Seton Hall coach Bobby Gonzalez

Music Trivia.
Yours truly is pretty good on 60s and 70s songs. In the Hall they had an area where you guess the song and win. The song listened to was an easy one, ‘Moondance’ by Van Morrison. The prize, a small box of valentine candy.

Name That Tune

Preview 2009-10 -- Louisville Cardinals

Too Busy for the Details?
Steady or down? Losing both Terrence Williams and Earl Clark in one NBA draft is a blow no matter how much talent the roster boasts. Coach Pitino returns a talented (if headstrong and inconsistent) point guard and center (more consistent and amenable to coaching), along with veteran wings. The cupboard is not exactly bare, but important parts of the offense have to be replaced, and someone has to step up. Another talented class is coming in and should be able to contribute early and often. If the Cardinals will be able to concentrate on basketball this season, all should be go well. Maybe. Prognosis -- A 1st quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance
Coach Pitino has had the Cardinals operating at a very high level over the past 3 seasons. This is the lowest starting point since 2006, their first season in the Big East, the year after their last Final Four run.

	Returning...
	2010	2009	2008
%Min	54.8	73.8	82.4
%Pts	55.2	69.6	89.4
%FGM	55.0	67.8	90.3
%3FGM	51.5	93.4	86.4
%OReb	60.0	55.3	93.0
%DReb	38.7	71.3	86.8
%TReb	45.5	66.5	89.0

It is tempting to conclude the Cardinals will struggle next season, just as they did in 2006, but consider that 2006 squad suffered injuries to David Padgett and Juan Palacios just before the beginning of fall practice. Both were hobbled and marginally effective through much of the season (Padgett took surgery in February, virtually conceding the season was a washout).

	According to Pomeroy...
	2008-09		2007-08		2006-07
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Overall ORtg	113.4	31	115.2	32	116.0	29
Overall DRtg	84.2	2	84.1	5	88.4	16
Big East ORtg	106.3	7	105.9	6	107.0	2
Big East DRtg	92.4	1	91.4	1	94.7	2
Four Factors -- Overall
All Off. eFG%	52.7	49	53.1	45	49.9	176
All Off. TOv%	19.7	138	20.2	126	19.2	66
All Off. OReb%	34.6	102	33.5	145	37.1	53
All Off. FTA/FGA	31.4	294	36.5	175	37.2	150
All Def. eFG%	44.3	12	44.0	7	45.5	23
All Def. TOv%	23.0	43	21.2	155	22.5	86
All Def. OReb%	31.7	124	30.6	79	33.8	185
All Def. FTA/FGA	30.2	40	33.4	105	45.5	302
Four Factors -- Big East
BE Off. eFG%	52.9	3	52.7	1	50.2	7
BE Off. TOv%	19.7	12	18.9	8	16.4	2
BE Off. OReb%	33.8	10	30.2	15	33.0	8
BE Off. FTA/FGA	31.2	9	38.2	6	22.1	11
BE Def. eFG%	44.8	2	44.3	2	46.3	4
BE Def. TOv%	21.8	1	20.5	5	22.4	1
BE Def. OReb%	33.7	9	29.1	2	34.9	12
BE Def. FTA/FGA	31.3	6	32.1	6	40.7	13
Miscellanious
All Gms Cons	23.7	300	18.6	104	18.5	84
All Gms Luck	+.061	23	-.065	297	-.054	278

Valuing quick, lighter-weight but athletic, prototypic wing guard-type forwards may be a reason why the Cardinals consistently rank higher in the conference for generating defensive turnovers and shot defense. The preference has it's weaknesses -- ranking in the conference for offensive rebounding, for example, is relatively low. The key to improve an already top of the conference ranking in defense (beyond bringing back long time friend and defensive guru Ralph Willard) may be to improve (even more) an average defensive rebounding rate. And couple that with a better offensive rebounding rate. Samuels and Jennings should have the tools to do that in 2010.

	For the Record...
	2008-09			2007-08			2006-07
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	31	6	0.838	27	9	0.750	24	10	0.706
Big East	16	2	0.889	16	2	0.889	13	3	0.813
Post Season?	NCAA/Rnd 4			NCAA/Rnd 4			NCAA/Rnd 2

The Cardinals have, along with Pitt put together a terrific 3 year run, consistently competing for a bye seed (like Pitt, often the top seed) in the Big East Tournament. The previews are mixed, Jay Bilas sees a second quartile finish. Maybe, but how big a step back?

The Cardinal's Nucleus
Louisville may have lost nearly ½ of their minutes (and points, over ½ of their rebounds, etc.), but they bring back a point guard and their center, two places to start rebuilding.

On Offense
Player	Min%	ORtg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTR%
Samuels	62.6	107.8	23.5	20.6	57.8	1.21	11.4	58.5
Smith	52.9	118.8	15.8	16.9	63.1	1.28	3.0	33.3
Sosa	49.4	97.5	22.0	21.3	48.1	1.03	1.4	27.7
Knowles	41.7	112.9	16.9	21.0	56.3	1.12	5.3	9.9
Jennings	26.5	111.8	18.0	16.5	59.4	1.17	15.1	51.0
Swopshire	13.5	80.8	18.8	16.9	41.0	0.88	7.8	34.0
Goode	10.8	109.5	13.1	13.1	48.4	1.03	9.8	25.8
Delk	10.3	114.7	14.7	16.8	51.3	1.04	3.7	23.7

Given that senior Jerry Smith has not grown beyond the 3rd/4th option on offense (though flying under the radar, he has been extremely efficient when he does take that shot), it is very unlikely his role, even with the vacuum created by Clark's and William's exits, will expand much this season. Though he logged few minutes, Terrence Jennings' Poss% & Shot%, coupled with his ORtg, suggest a larger role. Even with a little degradation to his shooting/ORtg, Jennings would be on the high side for offensive efficiency (ie he would "pull the offense up"). Swopshire, like Jennings, hovers at the edge of "regular player" status in the offense, but unlike Jennings, has not been able to translate his opportunities efficiently into points.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Samardo Samuels	62.6	10.1	7.6	20.9	5.4	1.4
Jerry Smith	52.9	8.0	11.1	16.8	0.4	3.0
Edgar Sosa	49.4	6.2	21.8	23.6	0.4	2.2
Preston Knowles	41.7	8.2	10.8	13.8	0.5	3.3
Terrence Jennings	26.5	11.6	3.8	16.3	13.7	2.3
Jared Swopshire	13.5	15.1	6.0	27.5	1.5	1.7
George Goode	10.8	14.1	7.5	16.4	12.7	2.5
Reginald Delk	10.3	7.8	14.9	10.3	4.0	1.5

Significant Additions
The scouting services really like Peyton Siva, a 5-11 pg out of Seattle, Washington & 6-9, 205 lb Rakeem Buckles, a pf from Florida. Siva is ranked in a few Top 25, while Buckles comes in somewhere between 50 and 100. Siva will be a talent upgrade over departed Andre McGee, a good (not great) pg who took direction well (better than Sosa). Siva will definitely make the practices more intense and push senior Edgar Sosa, a sometime flashy New York City point who has landed in Coach Pitino's dog house a few times in the past 3 seasons, to either get with the program or sit on the bench. Buckles has a power forward's game in a small forward's body and is especially effective in transition. With a good handle and an inclination to take defenders off the dribble, he may remind Louisville fans of Earl Clark. The Cardinals also bring in 6-3 off guard Mike Marra and a 6-9 220 lb power forward, Stephan Van Treese, will add depth.


Explode If...
Despite a "down year piece" by ESPN's Mike Hume (you need a subscription), the Cardinals have enormous depth, particularly on the wing and en the front court. You can't blame Hume, teams that lose two NBA 1st round picks always suffer a hangover season, but how many have returned with as much in the tank at the Cardinals?
1. Coach Rick Pitino identified #4/#5 Terrence Jennings as the one who had to make progress for the Cardinals to succeed. Jennings is a monster offensive rebounder and if he can duplicate the effort under the opponent's basket the Cardinals will move a long way towards replacing Williams' and Clark's defense.
2. Peyton Silva provides good support to a newly focused (and "coachable"?) Edgar Sosa. The Cardinals will not need Sosa's shot as much as his ability to distribute and involve the wings and low post playes in the offense.

Implode If...
The potential for distraction can be measured by the noise surrounding the program. Louisville players have been challenged to focus through player tantrums, injuries and player-staff feuds (all with accompanying commentary by fans...). But the noise generated by the "Karen Sypher Incident" (in addition to the usual drama) may be the loudest in the Pitino Era. With a trial still to come (best case -- have it over and done before the middle of October), the worst days may yet come. Count on the road being brutal this season.
1. The Cards have to replace the defensive rebounding that departed with Clark and Williams. Samuels and Jennings were surprisingly light (defensive) rebounders last season. They will have to improve. A lot -- but others (whoever takes the #3 and #2) should pick up some of that responsibility -- as Williams did -- if Louisville is to maintain their defense.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
The Cardinals typically put together a decent, though not killer OOC slate, and this season they will face traditional (but resurgent?) foe Kentucky, SEC middling power Arkansas (Basketball Hall of Fame Showcase on a neutral court in St. Louis, MO), a road trip to Las Vegas to face the Runnin Rebs and a rematch with the Hilltoppers from Western Kentucky. Rebuilding has been the off season theme, but running the table, a possibility, would suggest the Cardinals will again dominate the conference again this season.

The seven conference games that follow Louisville's annual tilt with Kentucky should be interesting. The Cards travel to Providence to take on a rebuilding Friar team, then return home to host St. John's and Villanova. A two game road trip with stops at a possibly down Pittsburgh and resurgant Seton Hall is followed by a three game home-away-home sequence with Cincinnati, West Virginia (don't the 'Eers get all the luck?) and Connecticut. Standing 6-2 or better (the Cards open the season by hosting the Bulls -- a game they will no doubt be favored to win) would be very good news for the Cardinal Nation. 4-4 on the other hand, would suggest Louisville will have a lot of work to do in the latter part of the season.

25 Top PPWS Returning Players

True Shot or PPWS?
John Hollinger developed the True Shot statistic as a way of expressing a player's overall shooting capability with a single value. True Shot folds the player's free throw proficiency into his field goal efficiency (2FGA & 3FGA), expressing all three elements of shooting as a single number. If eFG% can, with a single number, provide a sense of the player's ability to convert field goal attempts (2s and 3s), True Shot provides a sense of a player's ability to convert field goal attempts into points, whether those points come with successful 2s, 3s or free throws. The specfic calculation varies slightly from DI to the NBA, and from author to author, the idea (and elements) however, remain the same. Points Per Weighted Shot (PPWS) is the same calculation with one difference -- True Shot calculations multiply the player's points scored by 50, while PPWS does not. True Shot then is expressed as an implied percentage (ie xx.x), while PPWS looks more like...well points per shot (ie x.xx). True Shot's advantage is that it provides a "normalized" representation of the conversion metric, consistent with eFG%, 3FGM%, and FTM%, which makes it easier to compare the values. I like PPWS because it can tell me at a glance how many points a player can score every time he takes a shot. He will either convert from the field, or at the line (or not). The PPWS calculation (for DI)...

PPWS = Pts / ((0.475 * FTA) + FGA)

Want the True Shot? Just multiply Pts by 50 before dividing. For True Shot, anything above 60 is very good, while 50 is the threshold for "good". By the same token, a PPWS of 1.20 or greater is very good, below 1.00, and the player is not at all efficient at converting his field goal opportunities. Freshmen will typically have PPWSs ranging from the mid 80s to the high 90s, though some of the best will record PPWSs > 1.00 (see Greg Monroe below -- a PPWS of 1.22).

Top Guns
I have listed (about) 25 Big East players, returning for 2010, who recorded the highest PPWSs in 2009. The player had to log => 40% of the time in his position. I included the player's eFG%, field goal attempts (FGA), 3 point attempts (3PA), free throw attempts (FTA), minutes (MIN), points (PTS) and percentage of available shots taken while the player was in the game. The players highlighted in dark green were the focal points (to use Ken Pomeroy's term, the "Go-to Guys") for their team's offense. Light green suggests a prominent (but not overwhelming -- per Pomeroy a "Major" or a "Significant" Contributor) role, a player who may share the 1st option on offense role with another player, or one who is the 2nd option on offense.

Player	Team	MIN	%Min	PPWS	%Shot	eFG%	FGA	FTA	3PA	PTS
J Smith	Ville	785	52.9	1.28	16.9	63.1	195	65	131	289
Butler	MU	687	48.9	1.22	10.8	51.4	107	112	4	196
Monroe	GTown	958	76.0	1.22	20.8	57.6	250	150	6	393
N'Diaye	RU	745	58.0	1.22	10.8	58.7	109	79	1	179
Clark	GTown	568	45.1	1.22	16.1	57.0	115	36	50	161
Jackson	Cuse	839	53.4	1.21	18.3	62.3	223	77	1	315
Samuels	Ville	929	62.6	1.21	20.6	57.8	282	165	1	436
Onuaku	Cuse	1017	64.8	1.21	18.1	66.7	267	124	0	393
Wanamaker	Pitt	683	47.4	1.18	13.9	54.2	143	71	59	208
Stokes	Nova	868	56.9	1.18	21.5	55.2	268	66	182	352
Garcia	Hall	803	62.0	1.17	13.7	60.6	165	56	0	225
Freeman	GTown	913	72.5	1.15	21.7	53.4	249	102	85	343
Wright	GTown	1021	81.0	1.15	22.0	53.7	282	116	96	387
Hayward	MU	1109	78.9	1.14	27.2	53.0	435	133	148	570
Knowles	Ville	619	41.7	1.12	21.0	56.3	192	19	111	226
Hazell	Hall	1161	89.7	1.12	31.6	52.3	550	204	290	726
Reynolds	Nova	1223	80.2	1.12	23.9	48.9	420	205	215	578
Echenique	RU	909	70.7	1.11	15.0	50.8	185	122	1	270
Fisher	Nova	925	60.6	1.10	22.3	48.0	296	162	94	410
Walker	UConn	907	61.5	1.10	18.1	49.8	234	123	48	321
Rautins	Cuse	1059	67.4	1.10	21.6	53.3	332	45	279	387
Sanchez	USF	535	43.0	1.09	12.9	53.3	92	47	0	125
Koshwal	DPU	1026	77.7	1.08	20.0	52.7	298	134	2	391
Pena	Nova	652	42.7	1.08	14.2	48.1	133	89	1	189
Vaughn	Nati	1146	88.5	1.07	24.1	49.0	399	120	240	488
Robinson	UConn	696	47.2	1.07	19.4	51.3	192	63	23	237
Brooks	PC	696	52.5	1.07	26.4	50.9	279	79	128	338

Providence's Marshon Brooks and Corey Stokes out of Villanova will get more recognition when they are logging more minutes. For Brooks, playing in a rotation with (senior) Weymini Efejuku and (sophomore) Brian McKenzie last season, the door is wide open as the Friars lost 3 starters and McKenzie aside, the team has few bench players when the Class of 2009 moved on. Coach Davis has some replacements coming in, but a shallow bench leaves few to challenge him for the starter's nod. Stokes will play in front of freshman Dominic Cheek, but expect Cheek, and when he returns, senior Reggie Redding, to push Stokes for time. Lazar Hayward, fresh off of a bronze medal (a teammate of Corey Fisher on the USA team) run at the World University Games this past summer, will get as much offensive responsibility as he can handle when he takes the court for Marquette. With the departure of the 3 Amigos and front court player Dwight Burke, Hayward is the only experienced volume scorer returning this season. Marquette will have a handful of JUCOs and true freshmen to compete for the vacated starting spots, but the newcomers will initially complement Hayward's offense. Jeremy Hazell's Pirates will have something they have not had in a few seasons -- legitimate 2nd and 3rd scoring options to draw some of the defensive attention that Hazell has drawn. Hazell will most likely scale back (or at least stay about where he is) his shooting, but with more space to work in, expect him to become even more efficient at scoring. Between them Louisville's wings, Jerry Smith and Preston Knowles have accounted for over 93% of the minutes, converting shot to points very efficiently as 3rd/4th options in the offense, complements of the attention Williams and Clark drew from opposing defenses. The Cardinals may need more from these two in 2010. Whether they play together or in sequence, they will most likely be expected to take more liberties with their shooting.

I was a bit surprised to see no less than 4 Hoyas, Greg Monroe, Jason Clark, Austin Freeman and Chris Wright, among the 25 (27 actually, I used 1.07 as the cutoff point for list), about 1/8 of the list then comes from a single team. With four players (3 starters) drawing a PPWS of 1.07 or better, how could Georgetown have a raw offensive rating (per Ken Pomeroy) of just 106.4? The guys over at the Hoya Prospectus Blog partially answered that question in their August 14 post on turnovers during conference play. Of the 4 on the PPWS list, only Freeman appeared to value the ball. Monroe and Clark were worse than the team average, while point guard Chris Wright with a turnover rate of 22%, was just below the team's average of 23% for conference play. That 23% turnover rate ranked the Hoyas #14 among conference teams. Ouch.

Connecticut at Louisville -- What Happened?!

That Connecticut won at Louisville last night may not (John Gasaway, Louisville fans & a large contingent of the Nova Nation aside) have been a big surprise, after all the Huskies were just installed in the #1 spot in both polls earlier in the day. The margin of the win however, was shocking. Maybe breaking the game down into halves will show something interesting...

Teams	UConn/Ville
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	37.1	29.6	66.7
	Connecticut				Louisville
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	103.4	101.2	102.4		69.4	84.8	76.2
eFG%	53.8	40.0	47.1		39.1	37.5	38.3
TORate	29.9	16.9	24.1		29.4	23.7	26.9
OR%	41.7	38.9	40.0		28.6	47.6	38.1
FTA/FGA	38.5	56.0	47.1		3.1	3.1	3.1
FTM/FGA	38.5	40.0	39.2		3.1	3.1	3.1
ARate	64.3	30.0	50.0		45.5	36.4	40.9
Blk%	11.5	24.0	17.6		6.3	9.3	7.8
Stl%	21.8	10.1	16.6		10.7	6.8	9.0
PPWS	1.24	0.95	1.09		0.80	0.77	0.79

Half Time Adjustments...
A few obvious observations first -- this was clearly a defensive struggle and Louisville was not in the game at all. The Huskies secured a 12 point lead by the half, and then tacked another 5 point cushion on that lead for the 2nd half re-enforces assertions that the Cardinals were not ready to play, at least on offense. Connecticut is the #2 ranked offense in the Big East; they demonstrated it in the 1st half by converting their FGAs efficiently (eFG% -- 53.8) and dominating on their boards (OR% -- 41.7). They undermined that offensive display by losing 3 in 10 of their possessions (without a corresponding FGA). Credit the Cardinals defense (ranked #1 in the Big East in conference play per John Gasaway's article over at the Basketball Prospectus. Credit the Cardinal defense for shutting down UConn's shooters in the second half. Though the Huskies cut into their turnover rate significantly half-over-half, their ORtg declined in the face of their inability to continue to convert FGAs into points (eFG% fell to 40.0). I was surprised by a few stats, which I have highlighted in green...
1. The 2nd half was sloooow. The teams played for 37.1 possessions in the 1st half -- that put them on track for a game of 74 possessions, a bit high, but not startling for two squads which usually play for 68 - 70 (or more) possessions. The 2nd half was played at a pace that only Georgetown (or DePaul) could like, something just south of 60 possessions. As an average, the game worked out to 66.7, about where Connecticut has played this season. Who took the air out of the ball? Probably Connecticut. Louisville as the underdog going into the last 20 minutes, would have looked for more not fewer possessions and scoring opportunities. Pushing the pace then slowing down without triggering a significant variation in their offensive is pretty impressive.
2. Rebounding Misses. Both teams did a good job of getting 2nd chance opportunities (though neither converted especially well). Defensive rebounding? As the other side of that coin, it is obvious that neither did well at all, though the Huskies were nominally better. The Cardinal's best defensive rebounders, Earl Clark and Terrence Williams, were well below season numbers. The Cardinals got better value from Andre McGee, Jared Swopshire and Terrence Jennings (with limited minutes).
3. Shots are Important to UConn. A good study in the relative importance of Oliver's four factors can be had by reviewing the half-over-half changes in eFG%, TO%, OR% and FTA/FGA & FTM/FGA relative to each team's efficiency rating. Connecticut's ORtg declined by 2% even though the team cut their turnover rate, and remained more or less steady in FTM/FGA (up @2.5 points) and offensive rebounding (down @1.5). Their decline in shooting pushed their ORtg down.
4. Louisville Values Rebounds. Check Lousiville's four factors. Note that FTM/FGA remained even half-over-half, while eFG% declined slightly. Yet their ORtg rose sharply, by >15.0. Credit a modest decline in their turnover rate (@6 points), and more importantly, the steep increase in offensive rebounding (@19 points). Going into the game Louisville was ranked #132 in eFG% with an eFG% of 49.9. When your shooting does not efficiently translate into points, you have to value 2nd chance opportunities.
5. The Blockers Got Blocked. Connecticut has the reputation as the shot blocking team in the Big East (indeed nationally), complements of a long tradition of dominant big men. Hasheem Thabeet, the latest in that line, was credited with 4 blocks versus the Cardinals. Yet the Huskies had over 1 in 6 of their FGAs blocked by the Cards. In the second half alone that number was nearly 1 in 4.
6. The Cards Need Williams. I have not been a big fan of "TWill", but he delivered last night. In a big way. He took 42% of the team's FGAs when he was on the floor, and converted at a very efficient 65.8%, well above his team's eFG% (an appaling 38.3%). Everywhere except on the boards Williams performed to his season averages.
7. Smith, Clark & Samuels Were MIA. I have no doubt the Cardinal postmortems will no doubt point to lack of point production from Jerry Smith, Earl Clark and Samuels as contributing factors for the Cardinal defeat. Those three took 20 FGAs between them, and converted twice. For Samuels and Smith, the numbers are even more curious, as those two took only 4 shots in their (combined) 39 minutes of play. Credit a Husky game plan that must have targeted both for lockdown. Credit Rick Pitino with finding Preston Knowles and Terrence Jennings, as those two went 6-9 and posted very impressive eFG% (75.0 & 67.7) and PPWS (1.50 & 1.33) numbers. Too bad Pitino did not play them earlier.

Big East Rookies -- 10 15 To Watch

Samuels and Monroe were named Big East co-ROYs on Media Day back in October, but there will be a team of eleven (including an ROY) that will be named in March. I wanted, as the regular season gets underway, to take a look at number of players who will no doubt be under consideration for the All Rookie Team. I suspect Monroe and Samuels are heavy favorites to take the year-end honor as well, but should either or both falter, the next in line is most likely among the 15 others listed below:

							FTA	FTM
Player	Coll.	Pos.	Min%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	FGA	FGA
Mike Rosario	RU	G	79.6	32.5	53.5	1.15	24.2	21.0
G Echenique	RU	F	73.6	21.2	63.1	1.26	89.2	53.8
S Samuels	Ville	C	70.0	26.8	55.9	1.22	71.0	51.6
Greg Monroe	GTU	F/C	68.9	22.9	57.6	1.27	100.0	72.7
K Walker	Conn	G	64.9	15.8	56.5	1.30	74.2	62.9
D Bryant	WVU	G	59.0	23.2	52.1	1.15	45.4	35.1
J Kelly	DPU	G	54.1	14.9	44.6	0.93	18.5	12.3
Devin Ebanks	WVU	F	54.0	19.4	46.7	0.97	56.0	29.3
Yancy Gates	Nati	F	50.7	35.7	59.1	1.19	22.2	13.1
Kris Joseph	Cuse	F	46.5	15.1	50.9	0.98	48.1	18.5
Q Roberts	SJ	G	44.1	16.1	51.0	1.09	26.9	21.2
Jason Clark	GTU	G	44.0	12.3	51.7	1.27	69.0	65.5
E Espinosa	USF	F	34.8	12.1	52.4	1.10	81.0	47.6
Ashton Gibbs	Pitt	G	28.4	18.1	58.5	1.23	26.8	22.0
Gus Gilchrist	USF	C	27.9	26.0	37.5	0.80	36.5	19.2
N Robinson	Pitt	F	24.2	10.6	47.4	0.94	36.8	15.8
J Swopshire	Ville	F	20.5	17.6	50.0	1.03	50.0	27.3

[Note -- all data, except for PPWS was drawn from individual Team pages from ESPN's website]

Some Housekeeping...
The players are sorted by playing time, under the assumption that those who play more probably (according to their head coaches...) that which their respective teams need, be it scoring, rebounding, defense, etc. I then sorted (within playing time) by field goal efficiency, though to properly gauge a player's role with respect to team offense, looking next at Shot% may make more sense. Some of the players listed are starting games and logging 25+ minutes per game while others are playing somewhere in the 15-20 minute range. What most have in common is efficient scoring (see eFG% and PPWS, most are >50.0 and >1.05 respectively) while simultaneously taking a large enough percentage of the shots when they are on the floor to be considered a 1st, 2nd or 3rd option on offense.

Oasis in a Sea of Sand...
Rutgers had the defense last season, but Scarlet fans grew understandably weary with measuring success by the margin of defeat (and taking an occasional win against a Villanova or Pittsburgh). St. Anthony's Mike Rosario gave Rutgers their first New Jersey HS POY in a decade, and combined with St. Benedict's Greg Echenique, technically a junior who reclassified and cleared additional credits through the NCAA, provided the Knights with their best recruiting class in a long, long time. Coach Hill wasted no time getting these guys on the court. Both have logged twelve starts in twelve games (through games of 12/30/08) and more minutes than any other players on the Rutgers roster. Should Rosario pull Rutgers out of the cellar this season, I suspect he would, like Dominique Jones of South Florda last season, receive some consideration for the POY. As it is he will most likely have to settle for a unanimous selection to the All Rookie Team. Echenique, a player from Venezuela who enrolled at St. Benedict's two years ago to raise his profile for a possible D1 scholarship (and a college education) provides, when starting next to junior Hamady N'Diaye, a Twin Towers look for Rutgers. And some needed front court defesne and rebounding. Echenique also contributes about ?? points to the Rutgers offense.

Other Favorites...
Should the Samuels/Monroe pair falter then Connecticut's Kemba Walker or Cincinnati's Yancy Gates will be there to take the standard. Gates, like Rosario/Echenique has started virtually every game this season for the already front court-loaded Bearcats, while Walker logs quality minutes often the first player off the bench to mix in with junior pg AJ Price and senior combo guard Craig Austrie. I suspect head coach Jim Calhoun would love to start both Price and Walker, leaving to opponents to figure out who is running the offense. Gates is a DeJuan Blair-style big forward/center who scores and rebounds better than his dimensions would suggest. He, along with senior forward Mike Williams, leads the Bearcats for rebounding. Others who will get notice and are virtually certain to get votes include Darryl "Truck" Bryant from West Virginia. Bryant worked himself into the starting lineup and has stayed there for the last six games. The injury to junior point guard Joe Mazzulla, has put the ball in his hands as he has run the 'Eer team for Bob Huggins. St. John's Quincy Roberts has appeared in virtually every Johnnies game this season, and has started the last two games for Norm Robert's squad.

Late Comer...
South Florida's Gus Gilchrist's waiver application was approved by the NCAA and he has appeared in the last six Bull's games, starting 2 of them. Gilchrist is a work in progress (maybe not as far along as Gates or Blair from last season...), but the Bulls need him now.

Side by Side -- Monroe & Samuels

As the OOC is winding down, and in the pause before the Big East regular season kicks off, I wanted to look at some the of the preseason "All" selections to see how they were doing. In prior seasons the ROY selections in particular have not lived up to expectations (at least not immediately -- see Paul Harris up in Syracuse, he is really doing well this season...). Like last season, two freshmen were tabbed to share the honor. By this time last season it looked as if Jonny Flynn would live up to the hype, but Donte Greene was not having the Melo-level season everyone had foreseen. This season's co-honorees, Greg Monroe of Georgetown and Samardo Samuels of Louisville appear well on their way to impact seasons. A possessions-based comparison...

	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	OR%	DR%	FTRate	ARate	TORate	%Blks	%Stls
Samuels	111.5	25.4	22.1	54.8	12.4	12.3	70.2	7.5	17.7	5.3	1.8
Monroe	122.9	21.8	19.6	57.6	8.8	13.7	100.0	14.1	14.9	6.9	3.7

[Note -- Samuels' stats from Pomeroy's Louisville Scouting Report, while Monroe's stats are from Hoya Prospectus Blog. Thanks to both]

While it appears as if Monroe has won the efficiency battle, I would argue that Samuels has played a much larger (and more important) role for the Cardinals. Sam-Sam has assumed a "star-level" role in Louisville's offense, as his 25.4 possession and 22.1 shot rates suggest. While defensive rebounding is pretty much a wash, Samuel's 12.4 offensive rebounding rate is good for a #152 ranking. Monroe on the other hand gets to the line for each FGA he takes. That's #1 in D1 ball, and very impressive. I doubt that the voters who award the honors at season's end will be as amenable to splitting the award as the preseason voters. But going into the Big East season it looks like they are (still) dead even.