Rising Seniors -- Eight to Watch

What I Am Looking For
Last March's "All-Big East'rs" Ashton Gibbs, Darius Odom-Johnson and Kris Joseph won't make this list. Neither will Kevin Jones or Tim Abromaitis. Everybody knows them, and everyone will have them on their "Best in" or "Top" list in the next two and a half months. The Big East coaches and AP writers will vote them to a variety of "All" preseason teams. They have already been a bullet on ESPN's "Keys to the Game" pre-game analysis, and will probably continue their bullet status this season. They made their marks during their freshmen or sophomore or junior seasons. Those "name" guys decided to come back and most will reap the rewards of returning to finish their education and eligibility. But every season a Hilton Armstrong, or an Andy Rautins, a Jon Wallace or a Dante Cunningham lands in the national press (and picks up a post season Big East award or two) seemingly out of nowhere. Invisible to many except their team's fans, these seniors tend to start somewhere back in that freshman pack, or labor in the vinyards of a low ranking team, but unlike their classmates, they (and their team?) improve quietly every season. By Pomeroy's classification system they may start as a "Role", "Limited Role" or even "Invisible" player, and grow into a "Major" player or "Go-to Guy" over the course of their four years. Pomeroy discusses growth "probabilities" in "Putting Individual Efficiency into Perspective" over at The Basketball Prospectus in 2007. These guys tend to push at the upper limit of their growth curve each season. The Jon Wallaces and Orinze Onuakus -- are drawing a good share of the minutes at their position going into their senior seasons and they are drawing somewhere between 18% - 20% of the possessions when they are on the floor. They may lurk off the MSM's radar, but their coaches and teammates know who they are, look for them on the floor...and trust them with the ball.

			On Offense...
Player	School	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shot	PPWS
Jae Crowder	MU	68.8	120.1	19.8	22.6	1.13
Dion Dixon	'Nati	66.8	112.7	22.4	24.6	1.08
Chris Smith	'Ville	63.8	110.0	19.7	18.9	1.12
Yancy Gates	'Nati	67.2	108.8	22.9	24.3	1.07
Jason Clark	GTown	76.1	107.4	20.5	22.1	1.20
Nasir Robinson	Pitt	54.8	103.5	21.9	20.5	1.10
Scott Martin	NDU	73.0	101.0	18.5	20.1	1.03
Jordan Theodore	Hall	75.0	98.6	22.8	20.3	1.05

Dion Dixon fits the profile, each season (except for Lance Stevenson's single year in the Queen City...) his role with the Bearcats has grown. Securing 22.4% of the possessions and just under a quarter of the shots last season should have put Dixon on an "All" team if not for a slew of seniors (with better name recognition?) ahead of him in line. And also a Bearcat or two who drew conference and media attention. For Cincinnati to rub shoulders with the conference elites (seeds #1-#4) in 2012, Dixon and Gates (and rising sophomre Sean Kirkpatrick along with a few others...) will have to have very good seasons. And while we are in southeastern Ohio, Yancy Gates is another name that will appear on a preseason list or two. Gates, whose self-made demons held him back for a couple of seasons made significant strides last season. This time around the forward/center should do even better. vbtn is firmly in the pro-Gates Line this preseason. Marquette's Jae Crowder is another Buzz Williams JUCO/transfer the fourth year coach has a habit of pulling out of thin air (or so it seems). Two seasons of conference play may not be enough to turn heads among the conference's large media following, but every one of Marquette's conference opponents know they will have to account for him in their gameplans. Given Coach Pitino's penchant for stockpiling players are certain positions, Chris Smith has been victimized a bit by competition with rising junior Mike Mara and fellow rising senior Kyle Kuric. If Smith, whose shot and possession rates (Shot% & Poss%) are on the high side of "role player" will probably need more playing time and opportunities to score to grow into a major contributor or significant contributor level player. Preston Knowles is gone, but freshman Wayne Blackshear will press him for playing time at the #2. .

			Four Factors...
						FTA
Player	School	%Min	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FGA
Jae Crowder	MU	68.8	54.9	9.5	8.6	38.3
Dion Dixon	'Nati	66.8	49.1	5.1	13.0	38.4
Chris Smith	'Ville	63.8	53.4	6.7	18.9	33.6
Yancy Gates	'Nati	67.2	51.7	9.3	12.7	42.0
Jason Clark	GTown	76.1	57.2	4.7	21.0	25.9
Nasir Robinson	Pitt	54.8	54.8	9.5	19.8	54.3
Scott Martin	NDU	73.0	49.1	4.0	16.8	32.0
Jordan Theodore	Hall	75.0	47.5	2.6	22.4	33.6

An offensive rebounding rate of 9.3 and higher is a Top 500 ranking per Ken Pomeroy -- Gates, Crowder and Pittusburgh's small forward Nasir Robinsin are reasons their teams rank in the upper half of the conference for rebounding. Robinson's offensive rating is hurt by his turnovers (and lack of playing time due to an absent three point shot?) a byproduct of his close-to-the-basket play, but with more mobile front court mates and versatile forwards, Robinson should see more time this season. Crowder's and Gate's lack of turnovers, despite their play in the front court is encouraging, especially when considered with their offensive rebounding, each presents some strong scoring opportunities for their teams. For Jordan Theodore to garner more favorable recognition in the conference, he will need to dampen his turnover rate, as will Georgetown wing Jason Clark, whose outstanding shot efficiency (eFG% -- 57.2%) is tempered by his tendency to lose the ball.

		Miscellaneous...
Player	School	Ast%	DR%	Blk%	Stl%
Jae Crowder	MU	11.4	18.7	3.3	2.7
Dion Dixon	'Nati	15.0	8.3	0.1	2.4
Chris Smith	'Ville	18.0	13.3	0.4	2.0
Yancy Gates	'Nati	10.3	21.1	5.1	1.8
Jason Clark	GTown	11.7	11.2	0.7	2.9
Nasir Robinson	Pitt	10.5	13.7	0.4	1.2
Scott Martin	NDU	12.2	13.8	1.0	1.0
Jordan Theodore	Hall	30.4	8.6	0.2	2.5

Scott Martin had to sit a year as a Purdue transfer. The rising senior suffered an injury on the eve of the 2010 season, and came into 2011 off of a two year layover. Though he was rusty last season, as his rebounding suggested, and fitting into a rotation that had Ben Hansbrough and Tim Abromaitis available offensively no doubt limited his scoring oppportunities, Scott has another year to condition and as Hansbrough has graduated, should see a larger role in Notre Dame's offense. Theordore's assist rate is impressive and his defensive rebounding rate is not too shabby for a point guard. Now if he can get the turnovers under control and improve his shooting, the Hall will benefit immensely in conference play.

Hits & Misses...Last Year's List
Marshon Brooks exploded offensively and became one of the few bright spots (along with a win over Villanova...) in Providence's otherwise lackluster season. Brooks was named to the All-Big East First Team, along with "vbtn Watch List" mate Dwight Hardy from St. John's (who also took home the Big East's "Most Improved Player" award). Most of the Johnnies' limelight however, shone on "vbtn Watch List" member DJ Kennedy, who hit a runner at the buzzer against Pittsburgh in the Garden that put St. John's back into the Top 25 (and sealed their invitation to the Dance?). A season-ending injury three weeks later sidelined Kennedy and took a bit of wind out of the Red Storm. Rick Jackson and Brad Wannamaker made the All-Big East Second Team, with Jackson earning the "Defensive Player" award and Wannamaker honored with the conference's "Sportsmanship" award. Though Chris Wright was named to the All-Big East Third Team, the Hoyas' season sputtered at the end, giving Wright no opportunities for heriocs. The same can be said for Villanova's Antonio Pena, also named to the "vbtn Watch List". Though the bfc started the entire season, the Wildcats looked in vain for low post offense when their perimeter players were slowed (or sidelined) with nicks and dents. The Wildcats were trapped in a death spiral as the regular season slipped into the post season. Scoop Jardine decided to take all of his eligibility and return for a fifth year. Gilbert Brown had a decent season, though he did not have the breakthrough that fans predicted each of the four seasons he spent with the Panthers. Caught covering Butler's Shawn Vanzant late in their second round game, Brown could not prevent Vanzant's pass to Adam Smith whose bucket put Butler up for good, and sent Pittsburgh home in the first weekend.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Providence at Seton Hall

by Ray Floriani
NEWARK, NJ - Seton Hall left little doubt from the opening tap of this one. The Pirates defeated Providence 81-71 at the Prudential Center on Sunday. The Pace and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Providence	79	90
Seton Hall	81	100

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Providence	50	32	27	24
Seton Hall	45	26	26	14

Warmups at the Rock

The field goal mark of the Friars is a bit deceptive as Seton Hall played very good defense. Providence shot 4 of 19 beyond the arc . Inside they were 21 of 35, a 60% rate. A fair percentage of those came in the stretch with the Hall holding a double digit lead and in command of the contest. Marshon Brooks, Providence’s outstanding scorer, registered 20 points. Brooks however shot 8 of 17 from the floor. Credit some good defense on the part of Jeff Robinson for that.

The Hall ‘D’ (some pressure, some man and zone in half court) was rooted in PC’s 24% turnover rate as the Pirates forced 19 turnovers. Brooks alone committed 9 of them. “Turnovers were definitely our downfall,” Providence coach Keno Davis said. “Credit Seton Hall’s defense for that.” Davis also felt the Hall defense prevented his club from getting any offensive continuity in half court.

Pirates received a number of contributions in this victory. Herb Pope was a force inside with a game high 23 points, 11 rebounds in 31 minutes. It’s safe to say the junior forward is in full playing shape.

Robinson was effective inside, out and on the break. He posted 20 points 6 boards. Jeremy Hazell gave a solid 10 point 6 assist effort. The senior guard constantly looked to feed teammates often passing up a shot in the process. Jordan Theodore gave a respectable 11 point, 4 assist outing.

Seton Hall lost several games earlier in the season because of the inability to put together a 40 minute effort. That was not the case today. Some late game Providence pressure got the margin to nine but the Hall regrouped to seal the verdict.

A young team, Providence received fine performances from two talented sophomores. Center Bilal Dixon, a Jersey City native, had a 17 point, 10 rebound day. Vincent Council, had a twenty point, five assist showing at the guard spot.

PC coach Keno Davis

Numbers
Providence is 13-9 (2-7 Big East). Seton Hall improves to 10-12 (4-6). Providence host South Florida Wednesday at the ‘Dunk’. Friars defeated Louisville and Villanova in their last two games at their home facility. Pirates visit West Virginia on Wednesday a place coach Kevin Willard ‘fondly’ remembers from his playing days at Pitt and the traditional ‘backyard brawl’. “They guy (Mountaineer mascot) with the rifle drives me crazy,” Willard said. Actually, the Mountaineer defense is of paramount concern. “Coach Bob Huggins gets his teams to defend as well as anyone in the country,” Willard said. Regardless, the Hall will journey to Morgantown with a better mindset than a week or two ago. “Winning is great,” Willard said, “it’s a good feeling.”

About an hour after the game
a quiet street outside the Rock

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Rutgers at Seton Hall

by Ray Floriani
NEWARK, NJ - Opportunity lost.
That is the theme looking back on Seton Hall's week. There was a chance for the upset of Georgetown that slipped away. Yesterday, the in-state rival visited the 'Rock' and the Hall could have used a victory to try to get some momentum. It wasn't to be as Rutgers exited the Prudential Center 66-60 victors.

Outside the Rock the streets are busy
prior to game time

The efficiency numbers:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Rutgers	67	99
Seton Hall	67	90

Hall fans wave their towels

Pace definitely favored Rutgers as Seton Hall was more inclined to get this into a high octane affair. Usually games start fast and gradually settle into the regular pace. The first four minutes of this one however saw the tempo set and dictated. After four minutes the Hall led 5-4 and had 6 possessions (83 OE) to Rutgers 5 (80 OE).

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Rutgers	50	25	30	19
Seton Hall	38	12	30	16

Lights out for Seton Hall introductions

Outside of turnover rate and an even mark in OREB percentage, Seton Hall trailed significantly in the other two factors. A 6 of 27 shooting performance severely affected the eFG mark. Pirates shot 17 of 41 (41%) from two point range which was not exactly lighting it up. Rutgers, on the other hand, showed inside strength going 22 of 43 (51%) from inside the arc.

Seton Hall hit the offensive glass as the Pirates had a 12-10 edge in those 'raw' rebounding numbers. Unfortunately some of the best efforts on put backs were unrewarded as Seton Hall had trouble finishing in the paint. That was one of the reasons Rutgers built a double digit first half lead.

Game action captured from a number of rows off the floor.

Rutgers led 31-23 at the half. The lead hit double digits early second half. Seton Hall trimmed the deficit but never got this to a one possession affair. Outside of a brief Seton Hall lead early in the game, Rutgers was in command.

Dane Miller was listed on the box score as a guard. The 6-7 sophomore swingman for the Scarlet Knights, was a tough matchup for the Pirates. Miller scored a team high 17 points while adding 10 rebounds. He was 7 of 13 (0 for 1 from three) from the field. Miller has the ability to be a factor in half court and transition scenarios. At the other end Miller was no slouch with 3 blocked shots and 8 of those rebounds on the defensive end. About the only area he was deficit was the charity stripe (3 of 7).

A good all around effort was provided by Gilvydas Biruta, Rutgers' freshman forward. The 6-8 Biruta played 22 minutes scoring 12 points and pulling down a game high 11 rebounds (6 on the offensive end).

Herb Pope had a solid 20 point, 16 board, 3 blocked shots effort for the Pirates in 37 minutes. A positive indication that the 68 junior forward is now in full form and game condition.

Hall put four players in double figures but it was a deceptive number performance wise. Pope led all players in scoring and rebounding. Jordan Theodore had 11 point but twice as many turnovers 94) as assists (2). Jeremy Hazell scored 15 points. The Hall senior guard had the opportunities as he attempted 21 shots hitting just 6 (29%). Jeff Robinson checked in with a dozen points and he too had a generous amount of chances, hitting just 5 of 14 (36%).

Rivalry?
The star Ledger had a great pre-game piece on the whole idea of the Seton Hall-Rutgers rivalry. The whole premise is the respective coaches Mike Rice of Rutgers and Kevin Willard of Seton Hall can't and shouldn't obsess on sweeping these games. Seeing the big picture in moving up the Big East ladder is more important. While the coaches and players want to win, the reality is it is a game, or two, as part of an 18 game Big East schedule. It has also been noted when the day comes and the two schools are in the conference's upper echelon, then the rivalry will gain fruition.

Regardless, you have the two Garden State Big East members about 30 miles apart. The different institutional backgrounds, the State University of New Jersey and the Catholic University of New Jersey. The fans, though love it. They light up the chat rooms, fuel the pre and post game talk and genuinely exercise those bragging rights should their school, rooting interest or alma mater get that win. While the respective coaches and players eye that 'big picture' and say otherwise, getting a win in this series has to be a little special and significant.

Numbers
Rutgers is 12-7 (3-4 in the Big East. Seton Hall drops to 8-12 (2-6). Doesn't get easier the Hall's next one is at Syracuse on Tuesday. Rutgers, suddenly on a two game Big east win streak, visits Cincinnati on Wednesday. Former Rutgers assistant Darren Savino, now an aide to Mick Cronin at Cincy, will face his former club. Attendance was 8,929.

No rivalry?
Evelyn (L) and Amanda (R) show proudly display the towel.

Post Game: Syracuse at Seton Hall

Just When You Thought it Was Time to Turn Off the Lights
While setting up my computer for the RTC Live Blog I looked up and realized the Hall had opened the upper bowl of the Prudential Center (known locally as "The Rock") for this game. This is the first time I recall seeing the curtains retracted for a Seton Hall game, and it gave the arena a very different look and feel from the arena floor. There were 10,862 fans in attendance and for the first 35 minutes I was not sure who had bought more tickets -- Otto's Army or the Pirate Crew. The roar that went up with 2:18 to play in the game, Jordan Theodore had just hit his second free throw to cut Syracuse's lead to two, told me The Rock was Seton Hall's House today.

Syracuse beat Seton Hall 61-56 in a game that was not decided until the 0:16 mark of the second half. Separated by a single point, 20-19 Syracuse, at the half, the Orange spent the first seven minutes of the second half on an 18-9 run that secured them a double digit lead. Though they survived several pushes by the Pirates over the next eight minutes, the Pirates had one last, sustained push that translated into an 11-2 run that cut the Orange lead to two, 55-53 with just over two minutes left. The Orange hung on, outscoring the Pirates 6-3 over the last two minutes, to secure the win. Pirate forward Jeff Robinson paced all scorers with 17 points to go with his 14 rebounds. Pirate forward Herb Pope also recorded a double-double, scoring 14 points while snagging 20 rebounds. Point guard Brandon Triche and forward Kris Joseph paced the Orange with 15 points apiece. The breakdown by halves...

	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	34.3	33.3	67.6
	Seton Hall				Syracuse
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	55.4	111.1	82.8		58.3	123.1	90.2
eFG%	22.9	45.3	33.6		32.6	72.5	51.2
TORate	11.7	27.0	18.8		26.7	12.4	19.2
OR%	24.0	64.7	40.5		16.7	25.0	20.6
FTA/FGA	11.4	28.1	19.4		43.5	130.0	83.7
FTM/FGA	8.6	25.0	16.4		21.7	60.0	39.5
ARate	50.0	61.5	57.1		57.1	66.7	63.2
Blk%	13.0	3.0	7.5		0.0	0.0	0.0
Stl%	3.0	7.2	8.7		11.9	9.3	10.6
PPWS	0.51	1.02	0.77		0.72	1.27	1.01
2FG%	44.4	43.5	43.9		40.0	63.6	50.0
3FG%	0.0	33.3	11.5		12.5	55.6	35.3
FT%	75.0	88.9	84.6		50.0	46.2	47.2
%2FG	84.2	54.1	64.3		60.0	34.1	42.6
%3FG	0.0	24.3	16.1		15.0	36.6	29.5
%FT	15.8	21.6	19.6		25.0	29.3	27.9

A Defensive First Half
Seton Hall Coach Kevin Willard had tried to beat Syracuse's fabled 2-3 zone by first shooting over it. The effort yielded zero points as the Pirate back court and wings (principally Jordan Theodore, Jamel Jackson and Fuquan Edwin) shot a combined 0-13 in the first half. The second approach, to press the Orange, crash the defensive boards and simply outrun the Syracuse coverage to score before the Orange could set up the zone was a bit more successful...the emphasis on a bit. While the Pirates scored six fast break points, Pope, Edwin, Lawrence and Robinson all missed chippies within three feet of the basket. Defense kept the Hall in the first half, after shooting an abysmal 30.4% from the field they seemed lucky to be down by only one. The Orange however had their own problems. Despite scoring seven points in the game's first three minutes (to the Hall's 2), SHU's defensive switches, combined with Syracuse's uncharacteristcally sloppy ball handling, stalled the Orange offense. The Hall's very physical play, a defensive strategy that translated into eight first half fouls, including three on Jeff Robinson, distracted the Cuse, and though it put them on the line for 10 free throw attempts, the Orange were able to convert only five times.

Half Time Adjustments
With the shot conversions stone cold, Willard decided to crash the offensive boards, sending at times even the guards to secure second chance opportunities. The strategy was a double-edged sword. Note from the table above that the Hall secured a phenomenal 64.7% of their second half misses, but note also how Syracuse's own shot conversion improved significantly as well. With four, sometimes five players on the board, there was no one back to set up the defensive should the Orange secure the rebound. Willard also put Lawrence at the point and moved Theodore (and Eniel Polynice when Theodore rested) to the off guard position. Lawrence, more a penetrater than a step back jump shooter, passed the ball around the perimeter to locate a seam in the zone, and if one of the forwards could set a pick at the top of the key, turn the corner and penetrate the lane. When he met doubed defenders Lawrence would find a forward (Pope or Robinson) flashing along the baseline and pass. When the Orange adjusted, Lawrence would pass to Pope at the foul line and let Pope decide to shoot or pass to a forward (often Robinson) at the baseline. While the strategy definitely stretched the Orange zone, the defensive effort to rebound often left one of Syracuse's perimeter players (often Triche or Jardine) open to shoot the three or penetrate the lane.

Numbers...Next...
Syracuse extends their winning streak to 16 and their conference record improves to 3-0. The Orange will face a resurgent St. John's squad in the Garden Wednesday. Seton Hall falls to 7-9 overall and 1-3 in conference play. The Pirates travel to Chicago to play DePaul on Wednesday.

I will be in the Pavilion Sunday, to cover Cincinnati at Villanova for RTC Live. Look for the link to the chat on Rush the Court's front page. Hope to hear from you.

Preview -- Syracuse at Seton Hall

Inconvenient Timing...
...but is there ever a good time for a visit from the Orange? First year coach Kevin Willard is about to find out why fans love the Big East (and the conference coaches hate it) -- there is never an off night. With players sidelined and those available still seeming to be on holiday, the Pirates nevertheless host the Syracuse Orange Saturday at the Rock. Syracuse is ranked #4 nationally, and puts a 15 game winning streak and a 2-0 Big East record on the line. Questions about who would step into the roles vacated by Wes Johnson, Andy Rautins and Arinze Onuaku have been pushed to the back burner (winning streaks have a habit of doing that) as the current roster has stepped up to mold their own style of play -- somewhere on the good side of the "me next" teams of 2006-2009 and the win-by-committee approach favored last season -- and risen to the top again early in conference play. If the Pirate faithful do not look back wistfully to the maelstrom of former Coach Bobby Gonzalez, it is only because those days especially the last ones, were excruciatingly painful. Give Coach Willard another few weeks and an injury or two more, and a few may well break out in a chorus of "Auld Lang Syne". Watching a new coach try to motivate an experienced (but set in their ways?) roster can be painful, and the Pirate Crew are feeling the pain right now.

	Hall		Cuse
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Cornell	W (H)	+24	W (H)	+20

Not much to compare via common opponents, but the Cornell result is interesting. The Hall came off a road loss to Temple and pummeled the Big Red. Both teams scored in the same neighborhood against the common opponent. Of course the Hall had a healthy Jeremy Hazell. The Oranges' best OOC win was a 14 point victory (72-58) over Michigan State (Big Ten, 9-4, RPI #35) in Madison Square Garden last month. Their best overall win to date was their last game is a 70-58 (+12) win over conference mate Notre Dame (13-2, 2-1, RPI #12). The Orange won the Legends Classic (covered by Rush the Court Live) over the Thanksgiving Weekend. The Pirates' best outing is their 64-55 win over conference mate South Florida (6-10, 0-3, RPI #102). Their loss to Arkansas in the Big East-SEC Challenge (SEC, 10-4, RPI #142) was painful.

Lineups, Rotations...
...Coach Willard uses an eight man rotation (if a nineth man checks in, it is Anali Okoloji, a 6-8 freshman front court project who shows a lot of enthusiasm), with junior point guard Jordan Theodore (6-0, 174 lbs), along with senior off guard Keon Lawrence (6-2, 177 lbs), freshman wing Fuquan Edwin (6-6, 205 lbs) at the #3, senior Jeff Robinson (6-6, 230 lbs) at the #4 and senior Herb Pope (6-8, 236 lbs) at the #5. Lawrence got the nod over senior transfer Jamel Jackson (6-3, 202 lbs) in the Pirates last outing (a 73-54 loss to Louisville), and it appears Coach Willard will try the senior guard again. Jackson will come off the bench, along with fifth year senior Eniel Polynice (6-5, 220 lbs), who decided to play his last season of D1 ball in South Orange. Patrik Auda (6-9, 225 lbs), a freshman Euro-style #4 will probably come off the bench early to spell Pope or lend more height to the front court.

Coach Jim Boeheim has not tinkered with his starting five, opening with 15 wins for the 3rd time in his 35 year tenure at Syracuse has made him a bit conservative perhaps? Sophomore Branden Triche (6-4, 205 lbs) will start at the point, with junior Scoop Jardine (6-2, 190 lbs) at the #2, junior Kris Joseph (6-7, 210 lbs) at the #3, senior Rick Jackson (6-9, 240 lbs) at the #4 and freshman Fab Melo (7-0, 244 lbs) at the #5. The first to sit will be Melo, and when he does (about five or so minutes into the first half), Coach Boeheim will call one of four numbers for his substition. Generally freshman Dion Waiters (6-4, 215 lbs) gets an early nod, with sophomore forward James Southerland (6-8, 210 lbs), freshman forward CJ Fair (6-8, 204 lbs) or (if Boeheim wants to maintain Melo's heighth along the back line) freshman center Baye Moussa Keita (6-10, 213 lbs) getting the nod. Though 15 games those five have drawn minutes (except Providence, where Fair was a DNP) even in the tight games. If the scoring margin goes beyond 20 or so, look for another four as many as four additional players to check in, led by sophomore forward Mookie Jones (6-8, 220 lbs) who has averaged double digit minutes in eight games this season.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
...Syracuse tends to play for 67.9 possessions, just above the D1 average of 67.8 (adjusted according to Ken Pomeroy's Syracuse Team Page), while Seton Hall prefers to run -- 69.9 (see the Hall's page at Ken Pomeroy's site). Neither team should be uncomfortable with a higher possession rate, and though Pomeroy's 69 possession projection does not surprise, 70+ would not be shocking. A "Four Factors" comparison when Syracuse has the ball...

When Syracuse has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Orange O	53.4	16.3	37.0	38.8
Pirate D	44.4	21.1	30.3	33.3

The Orange have one of the elite offenses nationally, ranked #11, according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report. Syracuse is strong shooting the ball (see their eFG%, ranked #45) and getting second chance opportunities, while they are just average (considering the size and athleticism of their front court, surprising) at getting to the line. Their true strength is turnovers -- they don't. The Hall's defense, while not "elite" is rated strongly (#43) by Pomeroy. Shooting and shot defense (the Hall is ranked #45 in shot defense) should be a strength-on-strength match-up for the two teams. If the Cuse can convert easily, the Hall may have trouble keeping up, and if the Pirates can shut down Orange scoring, look for fewer transition points and more half-court offensive schemes. If Seton Hall can force turnovers, so much the better, as that would negate an Orange advantage. The "Four Factors" look at Seton Hall's offense versus Syracuse's defense:

When Seton Hall has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Pirate O	45.8	18.1	29.8	32.6
Orange D	44.0	22.2	30.4	27.1

The Pirates' lack of offense is central to team woes on the court. Adjusted offense is 103.2 (per Ken Pomeroy), ranked #113 for Division 1. While among the top third of the division, they have problems scoring at crucial times during games, and have suffered through scoring droughts.

Want to Beat Syracuse? Then...
Post it on the web as soon as you figure it out. There are 12 Big East coaches very eager to get that information.
1. Slow it down, take away transition scoring opportunities. When possessions are low(er), the score is close(r). Make Syracuse pass the ball in a half-court set for a few possessions to disrupt their rhythm. Against John Beilein's relatively inexperienced Michigan team, the Orange were held to 61 possessions in a three point (53-50) win.
2. Make them miss. Shooting in college ball, like the NBA, is the strongest single determinant for victory. In the five games where the Orange have shot efficiency (eFG%) held to less than 47% their offensive efficiency was 98.6 and their margin of victory was 7.4 points. In the 10 games where they have converted at better than 47% their offensive efficiency is 121.5 with a margin of victory of 21.4 points.
3. Get physical. Syracuse's FTA/FGA rate is 38.8, at #158 they are ranked close to the mean of Division 1. They convert free throws at a fairly mediocre 66.3% (ranked #243, the bottom third in D1). In the three games where their FTA rate > 50%, their margin of victory is 8.4 points. Overall their average margin of victory is 16.9 points.

Want to Beat Seton Hall? Then...
Make them miss. It is that simple. In games where Seton Hall's eFG% is < 44%, the Pirates are 0-8. In games where the Hall's eFG% is 44.7% or higher they are 7-0. Night and day.

Finally...
...The Orange travel very well. I expect the house will be closer to 65%-35% Seton Hall, unless the fan-base is too discouraged to turn out (hopefully that will not happen). A win would certainly reverse a too long trend of Syracuse wins at Seton Hall (in the last 10 games, the margin is 8-2 Syracuse, 1-4 on the Hall's home court) and re-energize the squad. A competitive showing (Pomeroy projects an eight point Syracuse win), would suggest there are more wins than anticipated in the schedule.

I will be live blogging the game for Rush the Court tomorrow at noon. Drop by and chat if you have the chance.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Dayton & Richmond at Seton Hall

by Ray Floriani
NEWARK, NJ- Christmas week brought a 'tour of the Atlantic Ten' to the Prudential Center. Seton Hall hosted Dayton on Wednesday and Richmond Sunday. Both games saw the Pirates enjoy half time leads only to be reeled in and out played the final twenty minutes. And both losses left Pirate coach Kevin Willard pondering the Hall's immediate future.

Dayton

69

Seton Hall

65

The Rock under lights

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Dayton	37	34	41	16
Seton Hall	44	16	33	14

The Hall led 40-26 at the break and appeared to be in full control. The all important first four minutes of the second half saw Dayton get out to an 11-6 advantage. With 16 minutes to play the margin was suddenly a manageable nine points. Dayton also scored four field goals, with three coming in the paint. A point of concern Hall coach Kevin Willard referred to after the contest.

Willard also had a concern about the rebounding. Dayton was tough on the boards and attacked the glass as OREB percentage shows. Matt Kavanaugh, a 6-9 sophomore, epitomized the Flyer effort coming off the bench for a team high 15 points while adding 7 rebounds.

Four Pirates were in double figures led by Jeff Robinson's 15 points. Jordan Theodore scored 13 points with 5 assists but greater defensive attention on the part of the Dayton guards in that final half, saw Theodore wind up shooting 5 of 13 from the floor.

Dayton had 70 possessions with a 99 OE. The Hall matched the offensive efficiency (OE) with 99 on 66 possessions. Those final twenty minutes Brian Gregory's club clearly set the pace with a 123-71 OE advantage.

Victorious Flyrs greet their fans

Richmond

69

Seton Hall

61

Snow is great for Winter scenes
not so for driving...

Efficiencies for the game:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Richmond	66	105
Seton Hall	68	90

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Richmond	52	18	27	17
Seton Hall	43	15	39	21

Richmond Coach Chris Mooney
fields questions from reporters

Observations
The Hall led 35-30 at the half but was unable to close the issue. This was a point discussed by coach Kevin Willard after the Dayton game as well as after this one. Seton Hall is simply unable to sustain the effort the full forty minutes. That is a point that must be addressed and altered for the Hall to start winning games of this nature against formidable opposition.

Willard was concerned that as the offense lagged the second half, the defense followed. Entering the game the Hall's defensive efficiency was a very creditable 89. This afternoon, it was 16 above average.

Herb Pope is still rounding into condition. The Pirates' junior forward did give a nice 9 point 12 rebound (team leading) effort in 28 minutes. Pope seems to be attacking the glass more aggressively the last two outings. A good sign.

Hall did a good job forcing the pace and getting in the lane against the Richmond defense, especially the first half. Willard noted that defensive letdowns in the second half hindered the offense. "It's hard to run when you are waiting for the ball to get through the net," he said.

Hall had three in double figures. Once again Jeff Robinson had an active 17 point 10 board effort. Jordan Theodore scored 15 points while Fuquan Edwin added a dozen.

Edwin's added minutes and the experience the freshman swingman is getting are a silver lining in the Jeremy Hazell injury.

Willard said an early January decision will be made regarding Hazell's return or medical red shirt. "We will do what benefits Jeremy the best," Willard said.

Richmond's OREB percentage margin is 25-29%. Simply they are -4 in the percentage margin (their minus that of the opposition). Hall enjoyed a healthy advantage in that area and had a 16-7 edge in second chance points.

Justin Harper led all scorers with 24 points. Richmond's 6-9 senior forward is effective inside or on the perimeter. Harper hit 6 of 8 from three and added a team high 8 rebounds.

Richmond entered with a 44% two point field goal percentage defense. Seton Hall shot an outstanding 68% from two the first half. Pirates cooled off, credit Richmond's defense, the second half finishing with a 41% mark for the contest.

The Final Five Minutes:
Taking a cue from Chris DiSano's "Ice Water in the Veins" article on College Chalktalk last season, is a possession breakdown showing how Mooney's club sealed the deal in the stretch.

Seton Hall led 59-57 with five minutes remaining. The results of those last possessions...

Poss	Richmond	Seton Hall
1.	field goal (Harper 2pt)	turnover
2.	field goal (Harper 3pt)	Miss (defensive reb)
3.	field goal (Garrett 2pt)	turnover
4.	Miss (defensive reb)	field goal (Robinson 2pt)
5.	field goal (Anderson 2pt)	Miss (defensive reb)
6.	field goal (Anderson 3pt)	Miss (defensive reb)
Total	12 points	2 points
PPP	2.00	0.33

Final Numbers
Seton Hall is 6-6, Richmond improves to 10-3. South Florida visit's the Rock on Tuesday to open Big East play. Willard reemphasized that "we have to make plays at the end of the game. Plays on the defensive end."

Hall finished 1-4 against A-10 opposition. They defeated UMASS on the road while losing at Temple, to Xavier on a neutral court and Dayton and Richmond at home. "In all our losses this season," Willard said, "we had a chance to win. We were right in the game."

Post game outside a snowy Rock

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Longwood at Seton Hall

by Ray Floriani
NEWARK, NJ - Coming off an impressive win at UMass on Saturday, Seton Hall made it two straight with a 78-51 win over Longwood at the Prudential Center.

Outside the Rock
on a very chilly night

Pre-Game Shootaround:
Longwood, an independent, entered the game with a 3-7 record. Thy average a brisk 78 possessions per game with an efficiency margin, -7, what you would expect of a team with their record. On offense their efficiency is 104, on the opposite end the defensive efficiency is a problematic 111. Despite their fast pace their TO rate is only 19%.

Seton Hall, at 4-4 comes off an outstanding offensive effort, a 104-79 win on Saturday at UMASS. Their OE of 127 in that game was a season high. The Hall averages 71 possessions per game with a healthy +8 efficiency margin (100 on offense and 92 on defense). Kevin Willard's group has also valued the ball with an impressive 18% turnover rate.

Pace & Efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Longwood	73	70
Seton Hall	73	107

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Longwood	45	12	10	30
Seton Hall	46	20	36	12

Turnover rates were discussed pre-game and the Hall took excellent care of the ball offensively while forcing the Lancers into an uncharacteristically poor turnover-plagued evening. The Pirates took advantage of those Longwood mistakes, enjoying a 28-8 edge in points off turnovers.

Flagman during a time out

Observations:
Several are called but one was 'chosen' -- Running the break the player we want to see in possession of the ball is Jordan Theodore. He sees the floor, can orchestrate the pace of the break and has the ability to dish to the right cutter or finish if needed.

With Jeremy Hazell out coach Kevin Willard has asked Theodore to be more of a scoring point guard. The last two outings the 6-foot junior scored a career high 24 in the Arkansas loss then followed up with a 17 point 8 assists outing at UMASS. Coming into tonight's game Theodore's usage was 19% and he attempted 16% of the Pirate shots. All while averaging 12.4 points per game, the leader among the active squad (Hazell's 24.0 average still paces the club).

Herb Pope, 4 points in 14 minutes -- tried to get more involved offensively. He had a few nice moves wind up with shots rimming and falling out. Conditioning is still an issue as Pope tries to 'get his legs' and become more a factor in the offense.

Defense -- Longwood had a few easy looks the first half. Antwan Carter, the Lancers' 6-6 center, was played from behind in the post and had a lot of opportunities on the blocks. Carter finished with a team leading fifteen points but teammate contributions were few and far between.

Turnovers Feed Fast Breaks -- forced turnovers helped fuel the Hall break as the Pirates went on a tear in the latter part of the half and opened a 46-29 lead at intermission. The second half the pirates were never really threatened. Longwood did cut the deficit to nine roughly midway through the final half. The last 12 minutes the Lancers scorer 8 points and the Hall ran away with it.

Let Your Light so Shine -- a noticeable bright spot was the play of Fuquan Edwin. The freshman swingman scored a career high 17 points while adding 9 boards. Against the Longwood zone, Edwin was able to get inside the gaps of the zone and attack on the baseline. "Fu (Edwin) is understanding what a good shot is and what isn't," Seton Hall coach Kevin Willard said. "We want him to be a slasher than shoot threes not the other way around."

Patrik Auda's nine point effort has also to encourage Pirate fans. The 6-9 Pirate freshman was coming off a 10 point performance at UMass. "We call Patrik our All-American practice player," Willard said. "He kills them in practice then goes into a passing game out there. He is a good compliment to who we have on the floor and he (Auda) is starting to understand what we need from him."

Having players as Auda and Edwin continue to gain experience and fins a comfortable role will only pay dividends come Big East play.

Keep Shooting -- Longwood was 5 of 21 from three. No problem per coach Mike Gillian. Entering the game 35% of the Lancer offense came from downtown. Gillian wants his team to fire away. He would like the shots to go in, If they don't keep shooting. "The three helps us a great deal," he said. "Just taking them opens up the inside for Carter and spreads the defense for penetration. We will keep shooting them (threes)." And for their sake, making more than the 24% they shot tonight.

Longwood mentor Mike Gillian
explains his three point shooting theory

Finishing:
Longwood is 3-8, Seton Hall 5-4. Edwin and Theodore shared the game scoring honors with 17 points each.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: St. Peter's versus Seton Hall

by Ray Floriani

NEWARK, NJ - The two teams entered the Monday night game at the Prudential Center with personnel issues. Seton Hall was able to get through theirs en route to a 69-49 win over St.Peter’s.

Pre-Game Shootaround
The Pirates came in averaging a brisk 71 possessions per contest. St.Peter’s, a decidedly more deliberate 63 possessions per. Early in the season a team as Seton Hall may have glowing efficiency numbers due to a mild schedule. That is not the case here as December is two days away and the Pirates have played Temple and a few other formidable teams in the Paradise Jam.

	Efficiencies
	Off.	Def.
St. Peter's	80	95
Seton Hall	96	91

The defense of St.Peter’s is respectable but as was the case a year ago, Coach John Dunne’s club is just struggling to score points. A 24% TO rate and 42% eFG percentage are not exactly helping the cause.

Efficiencies for the game:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
St. Peter's	65	75
Seton Hall	64	108

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
St. Peter's	35	28	27	23
Seton Hall	46	12	36	8

‘Personnel’ issues dealt with Jeremy Hazell and Wesley Jenkins. Hazell broke his wrist at the Paradise Jam and missed the Pirate losses to Xavier and Clemson. “Jeremy’s injury affected us all ,” Seton Hall coach Kevin Willard said. “But from a coaching standpoint you make adjustments. The players were devastated. They were not used to playing without him (Hazell). It was like they expected to see him come down and hit a three. It took some adjusting.” A period of practice after the Virgin Islands tournament helped the team adapt to not having Hazell, who was playing outstanding before getting injured. Willard said Hazell will see another specialist Wednesday. If surgery is not required he will be back in five weeks.

Seton Hall Coach Kevin Willard
fields questions from reporters

Wesley Jenkins injured his knee in a Fall pickup game. A torn ACL was feared. It turned out the injury was not as severe and no surgery was needed. Jenkins’ first game was Saturday against LIU. “We probably played him more than we should have,” St.Peter’s coach John Dunne said. “The knee was fine but his game conditioning wasn’t up to par.“ In the LIU game, Jenkins (played 29 minutes scoring 13 points) was needed to pull out the St.Peter’s win. In the Seton Hall game Jenkins logged 20 minutes scoring three points and grabbing a team leading six rebounds. "It’s a game conditioning thing for Wesley,” Dunne said. “He is still rounding into form."

Observations
The pace of the game actually benefited both teams. Entering the game the Hall was a uptempo. With Hazell’s injury the Pirates are more half court or as Willard says, “a grind it out team.” Willard scrapped a few sets and added several new ones during the days between Paradise Jam and St. Peter’s. He’s looking to get more scoring opportunities for Herb Pope, Jordan Theodore and Jeff Robinson.

St.Peter’s should improve offensively but right now without Jenkins at full strength, they struggle to manufacture points. Ryan Bacon, a 6-7 senior forward, was the Peacocks’ only double figure scorer with 13 points. Bacon can score inside but is averaging just over 7 PPG. He is using only 9% of the team’s possessions. The problem here is mostly foul trouble which has saddled his effectiveness in the young season. Without fouling as a problem tonight, Bacon logged 27 minutes and used 14% of the St.Peter’s possessions.

Willard was pleased with the 5 turnovers by Seton Hall which gave them an outstanding TO rate.

To get an offensive spark, Willard brought Theodore off the bench. He discussed the role with the Pirate junior who was happy with it. “Coming into the game Jordan gives us energy and a lift,” Willard said. “Also the defense gets caught off guard with his style.” To Willard, starting is not the big thing. Playing time and contributions are key and Theodore logged 25 minutes, tying Pope and Robinson in that category.

St.Peter’s zoned, 2-3 or 3-2 the whole night. Hall seemed more comfortable attacking (not just settling for jump shots) as the night wore on.

Final Bookkeeping
Hall is 3-3 while St.Peter’s falls to 2-4. Theodore (11) and Robinson (10) led the Hall in scoring.

Saw Brian Nash, former St.Bonaventure and Seton Hall assistant who most recently headed up the St.Francis(NY) program. Nash is going to games and practices these days with an eye on getting back on the sidelines. Hopefully one of the great guys in the game gets his wish.

Pregame Drills at The Rock

Seton Hall Post Game -- Kevin Willard's Home Opener

by Ray Floriani
NEWARK , NJ -- Pre-game shoot around. Cornell defeated Albany 65-61 on Friday. The game was a 59 possession affair with Cornell holding a 110-102 edge in offensive efficiency.

The Rock on a beautiful Indian Summer day

Seton Hall’s loss to Temple (62-56), also on Friday, saw the Pirates in a 72 possession contest. Defense was the key, as Temple enjoyed an 86-78 edge over the Hall in offensive efficiency. Another stat that stands out is the Seton Hall defense that forced the Owls into a 25% turnover rate. Could just hear Temple coach Fran Dunphy address that one in team meetings.

One game does not a season nor a tendency make. But going into the noon matchup at the Prudential Center on Sunday, it was certain pace and defense would be keys. Could Kevin Willard’s club impose its will and force Cornell into a faster tempo? Also, could the Big Red handle Seton Hall’s defensive pressure and not become unglued.

On both counts the Big Red came up on the short end en route to a 92-68 pasting by the Hall.

The possession count saw Cornell at 79 and Seton Hall 78. By the half the possession totals were about 40 each. Comfortable for the Pirates to handle, not what Cornell wanted however.

The offensive efficiency was also significantly different (see green highlight below).

Opponent	Seton Hall vs Cornell
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	40.3	38.3	78.6
	Seton Hall				Cornell
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Efficiency	124.1	109.8	117.1		86.9	86.3	86.6
eFG%	44.6	58.9	50.8		44.2	37.1	40.2
TORate	12.4	26.1	19.1		22.3	15.7	19.1
OR%	52.4	35.7	45.7		18.8	29.2	25.0
FTA/FGA	48.6	42.9	46.2		73.1	22.9	44.3
FTM/FGA	45.9	32.1	40.0		46.2	20.0	31.1
ARate	57.1	64.3	60.7		70.0	50.0	59.1
Blk%	5.4	7.1	6.2		11.5	5.7	8.2
Stl%	5.1	5.2	5.1		9.8	5.3	7.6
PPWS	1.10	1.25	1.16		1.00	0.85	0.92
2FG%	45.0	52.9	48.6		58.3	40.0	45.9
3FG%	29.4	45.5	35.7		21.4	20.0	20.8
FT%	94.4	75.0	86.7		63.2	87.5	70.4
%2FG	36.0	42.9	39.1		40.0	60.6	50.0
%3FG	30.0	35.7	32.6		25.7	18.2	22.1
%FT	34.0	21.4	28.3		34.3	21.2	27.9

The Four Factors are highlighted in yellow above.

Cornell coach Bill Courtney was concerned about offensive rebounding and turnovers. The Turnover rate (TOrate in table above) by totals is the same (15) but by the half (a 50-35 Hall lead) the figures for that metric were 12.4 and 22.3 (highlighted in acqua green above).

Another significant note at intermission was how the Hall easily handled the Ivy visitors on the offensive glass. The final total is significant enough but the first 20 minutes with a 52-19% edge in offensive rebounding percentage.

Notables...
Impressed with the game of Jeremy Hazell. If you can produce a ‘quiet’ (game high) 28 points, the Hall senior did so. He shot 8 of 11 from the floor, 8 of 8 from the line and added two assists. Every shot was in the continuity of the offense and at times he passed up on good looks to set up a teammate with a closer opportunity.

Liked the three out two in and four out one in sets of Kevin Willard. Offensively it gave the players freedom while featuring good ball and player movement. Defensively the Pirates pressed the entire first half but were more half court defensively the final twenty minutes.

Cornell was paced by 6-9 senior Aaron Osgood with 19 points. He used his body well to get to the line but had one of the strangest stat lines. Osgood was 5 of 7 (71%) from the field an 8 of 16 (50%) from the line.

Cornell will not see teams as big and deep as Seton Hall on a nightly basis. Still, the Big Red need a consistent complimentary scorer to help Osgood as well as better board work. Cornell hoisted 24 three point attempts, hitting only 5 (21%). That’s something that might happen in Ivy play if Osgood does not get a teammate to share the scoring load with him.

Using the 'Manley' Efficiency to compare the leading scorers gives us the following...

			Efficiency
	Pts	Mins	Rating	per Min
Hazell, SHU	28	28	27	0.964
Osgood, Cor	19	26	13	0.500

Hazell’s efficiency (adding FGM, FTM, REBS, Assists, Blocks, steals and points while subtracting missed shots) is virtually off the charts on a per minute basis. He just missed cracking that 1.000 figure which is outstanding. That’s the type game he had.

Both teams are now 1-1 on the young campaign.

Quotables...
Cornell coach Bill Courtney on playing without injured point guard Chris Wroblewski: “Without him we are a point guard by committee. He’s got experience and really without him out there we are like the Peanuts character Linus without a blanket.”

Seton Hall coach Kevin Willard on getting the first win. “It’s nice getting that first win now. At my last school (Iona) it took seven tries before getting that first one.”

Coach Kevin Willard greets the media

Chalk another for your VBTN contributor. Yours truly won the ring. Pre-game rounds I made the walk around the Rock and came across a Pirate trivia booth. Question one: "What is Kevin Willard’s alma mater?"

“Easy, “ I replied, “Pitt.” Very good replied the gentleman with the Pirate blue ‘test’ sheet. Thought question two, the final one, would get tougher but it was a virtually given. “What is Shaheen Holloway’s alma mater?”

"Simple, Seton Hall" (could have added that I knew his high school alma mater) was St. Pat’s (NJ). The Prize was a special one a replica of the 1989 (a team I covered a number of times) NCAA runner up championship ring.

Ray poses with
Seton Hall cheerleaders Stephanie (L) and Reyna (R)
as he displays the '89 runner up ring

A few (more) thoughts...
The change was obvious from the pre-game warmups. Under the direction of a staff member, the entire squad assembled near the press section and performed their stretching routine together, as a single unit. Ray noted the 4-out 1-in and 3-out 2-in motion sets Coach Willard has installed in the offense. The appearance of an organized offense is only the most obvious benefit.
1. If Hazell's performance is a good measure, the other, more subtle benefit, lies in sharing the possessions and shots. A look at individual possessions and shots...

	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS
Jeremy Hazell	24.8	24.2	90.9	1.89
Herb Pope	32.2	32.1	45.8	1.00
Jeff Robinson	22.7	22.4	75.0	1.62
Jordan Theodore	32.3	14.0	40.0	1.27

The Pirates' fortunes rise and fall with these four. Hazell, Pope and Robinson are the first three offensive options (Theodore will usually have a higher possession than shot rate given his tendency to pass-first at the point). The relatively even distribution of possessions and shots is important, and given that Hazell did not dominate either stat suggests he is, as Ray asserts, playing within an offensive scheme, rather than free lancing. The offensive sets encourage the other squad members to engage in the offense, rather than watch Hazell and "wait their turn".
2. Ray pointed out that while the Hall did not win their game at Temple, they did post a defensive efficiency of 0.862 (or 86.2/100 possessions), while in the Cornell game that efficiency was 0.866 (86.6/100 possessions). The Hall's problem last season was defense. Keeping opponents under 0.9 is a great start (even when you lose, which with the Pirates' offense, won't happen often).
3. Seton Hall also rearranged the Rock, putting the press behind the basket at the visitor's end of the arena. The students (previously seated in the current press area) has been moved behind the visitors bench. The "Press Row" seating now accommodates honored/special guests. The students were engaged throughout the game, standing, chanting and cheering the Pirates on. I am sure that was something of a distraction to the visitors.
4. The football passes, Pope-to-Hazell on consecutive possessions brought the entire Rock to it's feet (press row and the Cornell bench excepted) with approval. Pope and Hazell executed perfectly, giving the Cornell defense no chance of stopping them.
-- greyCat

2010-11 Preview -- Seton Hall Pirates

Too Busy for the Details?
Bobby Gonzalez's "high risk, high reward" experiment has been extended (more or less) for another year...minus the chief architect. The new head coach had a scare in his first month as one of his best players, Herb Pope, collapsed after a workout and spent more than a month in the hospital. The silver lining is that Pope seems to have recovered and that incident may have played a small role in bringing the other two NBA Draft defectors (Jeremy Hazell and Jeff Robinson) back into the fold. That reconciliation means the new head coach takes over a program stocked with veteran talent (however temperamental) at nearly every position. Is talent with little discipline enough to win in this conference? If Willard can get this team to work together...the prognosis that follows is too low.  Prognosis -- A 3rd quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2011	2010	2009
%Min	78.2	75.8	51.9
%Pts	88.5	83.4	49.5
%FGM	79.5	83.9	51.1
%3FGM	87.6	83.6	45.0
%OReb	77.9	73.5	58.5
%DReb	78.5	73.5	50.1
%TReb	78.3	73.5	53.0

Herb Pope will return and contribute this season. The junior #4 had declared for the NBA draft (along with teammates Jeff Robinson and Jeremy Hazell) but collapsed during an on campus workout. A hospital stay convinced the transfer that another season might re-establish his value for the draft. In a stroke of luck for coach Kevin Willard, Pope, Hazell and Robinson all decided to return to the South Orange school and try to improve on their 2010 record. If these guys had a high Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) out of last season, the signs would all point toward a much better outcome this season. Of course if they had that PWP, Bobby Gonzalez would probably still be coach.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2009-10		2008-09		2007-08
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
BE Eff.Diff	-1.8	10	-4.7	11	-5.7	11
be Off Eff	106.0	10	103.1	10	103.3	10
BE Def Eff	107.8	11	107.7	12	109.0	12
BE OReb%	33.2	12	29.5	15	30.8	14
BE DReb%	36.2	12	43.5	16	38.8	15

One of the more interesting paradoxes of the Pirates under Coach Gonzalez is the lack of progress on offense, despite having one of the best shooters in the conference. The "Future is Now" strategy of 2010 produced a modest uptick on defense. Just enough to get the Hall to the 0.500 plateau in conference play and an NIT bid. Coach Willard has an experienced squad, and if he can get this group to rebound defensively (both boards actually), then the Hall may cross that line that separates the upper and lower halves of the conference.

	For the Record...
	2009-10			2008-09			2007-08
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	19	13	0.594	17	15	0.531	17	15	0.531
Big East	9	9	0.500	7	11	0.389	7	11	0.389
Post Season?	NIT Rnd #1			BET Rnd #2			BET Rnd #1

The staff upgraded the schedule last season to include A-10 champion (and NCAA #5 seed) Temple along with ACC middle weight Virginia Tech. The Hall still improved their record. A few more schedule upgrades are offered this season (see below). If SHU can step up their record yet again, another post season tournament should come to them.

The Pirates' Nucleus
Coach Willard steps into an ideal situation. He has talent and experience at nearly every position. These Pirates reached the 0.500 mark in conference play last season, so they know they can win in the Big East. Can the staff set the goals and keep them focused?

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
Jeremy Hazell	78.0	116.0	26.5	31.6	51.7	3.6	1.10	29.4
Herb Pope	73.8	99.2	23.2	21.0	47.2	13.4	0.96	35.8
Jordan Theodore	64.5	109.5	19.1	17.7	47.5	3.0	1.04	37.8
Jeff Robinson	50.1	118.8	19.1	20.9	54.3	9.2	1.14	35.0
Keon Lawrence	35.9	85.0	16.2	16.8	30.3	4.1	0.69	16.5
Jamel Jackson	25.6	114.0	18.7	24.5	53.4	2.1	1.08	11.4
Ferrakohn Hall	23.5	114.7	10.8	10.3	59.8	5.3	1.17	43.1

Keon Lawrence struggled last season, but having a run-in with the law just before the first game of the season and getting suspended (for nearly two months) just days before playing the first "real" game in almost a year can do that. Lawrence seemed a step behind or a second slow all spring. Jeff Robinson, eligible as of last January on the other hand, is poised for a very strong season. He finished as a high-end "Role Player" (see Ken Pomeroy for more details on this classification system). The ceiling for Robinson is somewhere near the border of "Major Player". The question is where the additional possessions will come from (hello Jeremy Hazell). Robinson, Lawrence and bfc Herb Pope were all part of the "High Risk; High Reward" strategy Coach Gonzalez persued as he recruited these transfers to jumpstart the Seton Hall program. Lawrence (a high-volume scorer for his two seasons at Missouri) has brought little since his re-instatement, Pope was generally positive (if you overlook his NIT game versus Texas Tech and the most recent rumor that he signed a pro contract to play in Turkey proved false), while Robinson has a very productive conference season (his eligibility began at the end of the fall 2009 semester). Senior Jeremy Hazell has led the team in scoring virtually since his freshman season. An All-Rookie Teamer, promoted to the All-Conference Second Team last season (his junior year) and named to the preseason All-Conference First Team, the senior can help this team tremendously if he includes his teammates in the offense. His shooting numbers, a 51% eFG%, an offensive rating of 116.0 when taking over 3 in 10 shots when he is logging time is impressive -- until you consider the team's overall offensive rating is only 111.5. Hazell ended 1 in 4 team possesions, but had an assist rate of less than 10%. His numbers on defense (a defensive rebounding rate of 7.8 is low, even for a guard/wing).

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Blk%	Stl%
Jeremy Hazell	78.0	7.8	9.2	8.0	0.5	2.6
Herb Pope	73.8	23.7	11.6	17.9	5.7	1.4
Jordan Theodore	64.5	6.4	22.4	16.2	0.9	3.2
Jeff Robinson	50.1	12.9	3.4	8.5	2.1	1.4
Keon Lawrence	35.9	10.1	16.7	16.8	2.8	1.5
Jamel Jackson	25.6	5.0	9.0	8.9	0.3	1.7
Ferrakohn Hall	23.5	12.4	3.7	13.5	2.1	1.8

On the defensive side, Jamel Jackson and Ferrakohn Hall are back, and while both had strong offensive numbers that no doubt reflected the "All Eyes on Hazell" offense, they will need to step up their defense (specifically rebounding). The senior has scored 1,789 points over his first three seasons, and is on track to be the third Pirate (first since Terry Dehere in 1993) to score 2,000 points in his collegiate career. If Hazell maintains last season's pace, expect him to get there before Christmas (NJIT? Dayton?). Junior Jordan Theodore has played behind graduated point guard Eugene Harvey for two seasons. While the junior does not have to be a scorer (between Pope, Hazell and Robinson there will be enough on the floor already), he does have to do a better job converting three point attempts. His 2009-10 numbers (27-74, 0.365) suggest he could be even more effective from the perimeter (passing into the low post, or scraping a defender on a high pick) if he can make the step back shot something for a defender to think about. Lawrence will most likely be his backup.

Significant Additions
Fifth year senior transfer (from Mississippi) Enil Polynice logged over 800 minutes for the Rebels in 2009-10, but was another volume shooter/scorer whose efficiency ratings (93.4 per Ken Pomeroy's Team Report) suggest that as a scorer he would be of little benefit to the Pirates. His assist rate (28.0) and playing time (as a percentage of the minutes at his position) give him a profile similar to the departed Harvey (though at 6-5 and 220 pounds, Polynice would fit better on the wing), and he may fill a role similar to Harvey's in the Hall offense. Of the four true freshmen joining the squad, 6-6 205 pound forward Fuquan Edwin out of Paterson Catholic (possibly the last class from that school), NJ, is the best regarded. Ranked by Scout, Inc. as #26 among #3s nationally, Edwin will compete with Jackson and Hall for time on the wing (if Robinson and Pope "slide up" a position), and may provide some needed rebounding. 6-9, 225 pound power forward Patrik Auda, one of two Pirate pickups from the Canarias Basketball Academy (Canary Islands, Spain), will probably see minutes this season as he brings accurate shooting out to the three point line to the table. The lefty is skilled but not athletic, so he may see spot duty next to (rather than in place of...) Pope. Aaron Geramipoor, a 6-11, 225 pound pf is a very long but light project. A year in the weight room and practicing his jumper, when combined with his great length (7-4 wing span...), will give SHU a good rebounder with scoring possibilities. 6-8 Anali Okoloji, a 210 pound prep student from Brooklyn, NY by way of the Impact Basketball Academy is a power forward with a handle. If he can rebound, he will probably see more time next season, playing one spot up from Edwin (at the #4) or one spot down from Hall (at the #3).

Explode If...
1. Coach Willard can persuade Jeremy Hazell to play defense. Good defense. Lacking consistent defense, Pirate games often went to the team that could score more consistently in the last 10 minutes. Keying on Hazell and defending his shot during that period was too easy for too many teams.
2. Jeff Robinson and Jordan Theodore hit the high-end of the efficiency usage band. Both convert possessions into points effectively, but right now they are high-end "Role Player" guys (possession/shot rate around 19%). They need to be high-end "Significant Contributor" guys (possession/shot rate around 24%) Hazell naturally draws defensive attention. Those guys have to get the ball and score enough to give those defenses someone else to think about.
3. Become an average, or just above average rebounding team. Moving up two positions in rebounding within the conference was a large reason for the Pirates' four game swing in conference play. They tend to shoot efficiently and value the ball, but they get relatively fewer second chance opportunities while surrendering relatively more rebounds to their opponents. Pope was a factor last season, someone among Robinson, Hall, Jackson, Edwin or Auda needs to step up and complement Pope.
Implode If...
In the face of enormous and numerous distractions in 2009-10 Seton Hall still managed to win 19 games total with nine coming in conference play. Only after a tumultuous week that included bad press going into the BET, the exceptionally poor handling of Stix Mitchell's press melt down and the (criminal) aftermath did the squad "crack" in the Texas Tech game. How could this season be more distracting and disheartening? Hopefully Coach Willard will not try to install a new offense and defense (ok, maybe not an entirely new offense), but will concentrate on improving what the players do well and developing schemes that amplify their strengths.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
The Hall faces an challenging out of conference schedule that starts with a road trip to Philadelphia to close out a home-away agreement with Temple (a consensus Top 20 team). Tilts with Alabama (followed by Iowa or Xavier) at the Paradise Jam, Big East/SEC Challenge opponent Arkansas (at Louisville), Dayton and Richmond, both of whom with contend for the A-10 title and should be in line for NCAA bids translates into the kind of slate SHU will have to play to draw some national attention. 11 or 12 wins going into conference play would be great -- but unrealistic. The numbers to follow will be defense and rebounding, if they show improvement, nine or ten wins is realistic and should give the Pirate faithful hopes for the conference season.

Reviewing SHU's mirror opponents -- Marquette Rutgers and Syracuse -- the Pirates can draw consolation (or confidence) from the knowledge that they should sweep Rutgers and have a solid chance to do no worse than split with Marquette and Syracuse, giving giving them a 4-2 leg up on the rest of their slate. Should they sweep Marquette, a tall order given those two games are backloaded on the schedule, the Pirates will most likely cross over to the upper division. Last season they recorded a 9-9 conference record by dominating at home, 6-3, while putting up an opposite, 3-6 away record. To at least match the nine win result this season, the Pirates would need two wins from an unusually tough road slate -- Cincinnati, DePaul, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh and West Virginia. Cincinnati, Louisville and DePaul are among the first five games they play, so they will have to start their season quickly. A 3-2 conference record going into Pittsburgh on January 15 would track with where the Pirates should be for a 9-9 season. Better than that (4-1?) would be a strong statement for Pirate prospects, as they should expect to collect another two or so wins (Rutgers? Providence?) through the end of January. A record of 2-3 or worse through the first five conference games would spell trouble, or at least that SHU would have to surprise a few folks at the backend of the schedule. The first two weeks of February present the Hall with a crucial four game run, starting with a road trip to Morgantown to face the Mountaineers on the 2/2. They return to the Rock to host UConn, then run down the Jersey Pike to play Rutgers and then home again to host Villanova (on 2/15). A 2-2 record is indicated by the ratings, a 3-1 record could scramble the rankings through the second quartile (especially if Coach Willard's crew sports a 6-4 record going into February...) and put the Hall in the conversation for an NCAA bid. If the Hall is hot, the last four games (two home and two away) would be for BET (and NCAA?) seed.