2010-11 Preview -- South Florida Bulls

Too Busy for the Details?
After surging to a 9-9 conference record in 2010, the highest conference win total since joining the Big East in 2006, the Bulls have some rebuilding to do. Coach Stan Heath has to replace an entire back court (typically the strong point of Heath-coached teams). The Bulls bring in a nice mix of 'new' (true freshmen) and 'old' (transfers & JUCOs), but it will take time (more than one season).  Prognosis -- A 4th quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance
The Bulls' record tracks with returning minutes, suggesting the players under Heath do improve over time. Most of the minutes/points returning come from the front court -- as noted by the (much) higher percentage of returning offensive rebounds than returning three pointers made.

	Returning...
	2011	2010	2009
%Min	42.0	62.9	55.0
%Pts	24.9	65.2	64.4
%FGM	37.9	66.1	55.7
%3FGM	24.8	66.2	66.9
%OReb	60.9	47.5	44.8
%DReb	46.1	57.6	45.1
%TReb	50.8	54.1	45.0

Dominique Jones, currently playing for the Mavericks, took 30% of the Bulls' shots while he was on the floor (and he was on the court a lot, logging over 90% of the off guard minutes in 2010). That is a very large offensive role to replace, especially since a single guard-in-waiting (transfer Anthony Crater) from the 2010 roster returns for 2011. Troubling too given the Bulls' rise in conference standing coincided with a marked improvement in their offense...mostly departed with DoJo (see According to Pomeroy... table below).

	According to Pomeroy...
	2009-10		2008-09		2007-08
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
BE Off Eff	103.5	11	93.6	14	98.4	13
BE Def Eff	109.2	12	106.3	10	108.6	14
BE Off eFG%	47.2	14	43.5	16	46.6	14
BE Off FTRate	43.2	1	31.2	8	39.2	4
BE Off TO%	18.8	9	18.6	8	19.6	9
BE Off Reb%	36.1	T7	34.5	8	33.8	7
BE Def eFG%	50.4	13	48.8	6	50.1	10
BE Def Reb%	36.1	11	34.5	11	34.6	12

South Florida's offensive efficiency improved enough in 2010 to lift the Bulls out of the Big East's 4th quartile and into the NIT. The offense looks for points inside the arc (USF scored 57.7% and 24.4% of their points from 2FGAs and FTMs respectively, good for a #33 -- out of 347 -- ranking per Ken Pomeroy) either converting 2FGAs or getting to the free throw line. While offensive rebounding and turnovers have remained constant over the past three seasons, the Bulls converted field goal attempts marginally better in 2010 than 2009, and got to the line more. Defensive rebounding (defense overall actually) continued to be anemic despite the succession of well-regarded low post bigs featured in Bulls' lineups since 2006.

	For the Record...
	2009-10			2008-09			2007-08
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	20	13	0.606	9	22	0.290	12	19	0.387
Big East	9	9	0.500	4	14	0.222	3	15	0.167
Post Season?	NIT Rnd #1			BET Rnd #1			NA

How far back does South Florida slide? The scoring percentages suggest a 2-3 win season, but I suspect Caoch Heath has other plans. The offense will most likely move closer to the basket and balance a bit better between front court and back court scoring.

The Bulls' Nucleus
Coach Stan Heath's biggest task this season will be developing South Florida's reshaped back court, composed largely of entering freshmen, JUCOs, and with a several returning rotation players (Noriega and Crater) into an effective offensive unit. The new elements have to work with the more experienced front court trio of Gus Gilchrist, Jared Famous and Toarlyn Fitzpatrick. Several will have to take up the offensive role assigned to DoJo, there is a plethora of guards (seven in all, in the range of 5-11 to 6-6) to choose from, mostly two or so will collectively cover the points provided by Jones.

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
Jarrid Famous	71.4	102.0	20.8	19.4	52.7	12.2	1.11	50.6
Toarlyn Fitzpatrick	54.8	85.5	15.1	13.8	41.0	9.4	0.88	43.6
Augustus Gilchrist	38.1	104.8	25.3	24.6	52.4	9.3	1.16	54.5
Anthony Crater	33.8	80.9	11.5	11.3	38.1	1.6	0.79	25.4

Gilchrist and Dominique Jones were a significant "inside/less inside" threat last season. DoJo maybe gone, but Gilchrist is back. If he can stay healthy, he should have a large and positive impact on the offense, as the #1 or #2 option. The task for Coach Heath is to develop an outside threat and most probably at least one more consistent offensive option. Fitzpatrick had a typical freshman season. He should improve with experience. With offensive rebounding rates in the range of 9.3 to 12.2, all three of the front court players are keepers. Coach Heath should be able to find time for each.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Jarrid Famous	71.4	16.9	3.8	20.4	2.2	1.0
Toarlyn Fitzpatrick	54.8	14.0	3.2	23.3	4.4	1.7
Augustus Gilchrist	38.1	14.6	4.2	20.0	3.4	0.5
Anthony Crater	33.8	6.7	13.3	24.9	0.5	2.6

Note the turnover rates for Famouns, Fitzpatrick and Gilchrist -- all were in the range of 20% or more. Cut down on the turnovers alone and each would increase by 5% - 7% on offensive efficiency. Anthony Crater, the Ohio State transfer who accounted for 33.8% of the playing time in a backcourt position last season, will most likely start at pg, though like Famous, Fitzpatrick and Gilchrist, he will have to limit his turnovers to be effective. Other returnees include sophomore deep bench guards Shaun Noriega who logged 68 minutes in 20 games last season and Mike Burwell who logged 92 minutes in 19 games.

Significant Additions
Coach Heath brings in a mix of true freshmen (2), transfers (1) and JUCOs (3); five of the six are guards. Among the freshmen, the coach's own son, 5-11 Jordan Heath, a point guard out of Tampa Prep is a walk-on. The other is 6-0, 200 pound LaVonte Dority of Edwin G. Foreman, Chicago. The last three guards, all JUCOs include 6-0 185 pound Shadrick Haynes, out of Lackawanna College, 6-5 195 pound Hugh Robertson, from Tallahassee CC and (possibly the most intriguing...) Jawanza Poland, a 6-4, 195 off guard who sat last season for Hutchinson CC after transferring in from Cowley College in Wichita, Kansas. Poland has not played organized (collegiate) ball in over 18 monthes. Count him very ready to get things going. Ron Anderson, a 6-8 255 pound bfc transferred in from Kansas State in 2009, has sat his year per the NCAA rules, and will be available at the beginning of this season. Anderson has two years of eligibility remaining.

Explode If...
1. Gilchrist can have a breakout season, but the Bulls will need more to match (or come close to) last season's nine conference wins. Someone from the back court or wing (Haynes? Poland?) will have to combine with a consistent third scoring option if opposing defenses are to be kept off balance. The third option won't have to be the same player each game, but between Famous, Crater, Robertson and Anderson, some combination will most likely have to contribute nine-tem points each game.
2. Find a perimeter game from among the new players. South Florida converted three point attempts at an attrocious 28.3% rate (all play) last season, ranking them #338 out of 347 in Division 1. Gilchrist and Famous should be able to keep defenses honest, but someone has to convert long-range attemtps consistently.
3. Rebounding is an area where significant improvement will translate immediately into more efficient defense. Despite having length and low post mass, the Bulls consistently ranked in the bottom third of the conference for defensive rebounding.


Implode If...
1. The players do not mesh. The back court, JUCOs and true freshmen, were assembled in the monthes after last April. Poland, Haynes, Robertson and Crater have had only fall practice together as a full squad. At the very least the out of conference should be interesting.
2. Off court distractions seem to be an annual recurring theme with the program. While most seem to be silly scrapes resulting from not thinking things through, player-on-player incidents, the type that can destroy team cohesion, have also happened.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
The out of conference (OOC) schedule is light on above "The Red Line" opponents, counting a maybe Texas Tech (South Padre Island Invitational, possible second round opponent...) have two. Auburn, visiting Tampa (a home-away agreement perhaps?) is heavy with newcomers, including their coach, and projected by many to finish at the bottom of the SEC Western Division, will probably not help the Bulls' RPI. There are however, a number of below The Red Line opponents who can nick up South Florida's record going into conference play. Chief culprits -- Brigham Young (Mountain West Conference) and Southern Mississippi (Conference USA), both of whom are expected to make the NCAAs in 2011. The Golden Eagles will open the Bulls' season at the Sun Dome, while the Cougars are the Bulls' first round opponent at South Padre Island. A second tier of below-the-Red-Liners includes Colonial Athletic Association members Virginia Commonwealth and James Madison, considered the class of the CAA, traditional rival Central Florida (CUSA, and with a new coach) and possibly West Coast Conference member St. Mary's. The Gaels will most likely not dance in the 2011 post season, but Coach Randy Bennett brings back three starters from the team that ran to the Sweet Sixteen. Sporting a record of 10-3 or better going into their conference opener (a road game against Seton Hall) would be bode well for Bull prospects, but not realistic.

Breaking down the Bulls' 9-9 2010 record, the key was holding serve (6-3) at home, while taking a few road games. Matching that win total may be a stretch without Jones, but if Coach Heath can coax five wins out of the conference schedule, South Florida can escape the fourth quartile for the second consecutive season. Drawing DePaul, Providence and Pittsburgh was definitely a mixed blessing. The Panthers will dominate while the Friars will struggle, so the mirror break will come with DePaul. The Demons will be sitting ducks on the road, but Oliver Purnell should have them playing better at home. Drawing that game late in the season may help USF, especially if they are within striking distance of five (or better wins). The five game stretch from the middle of January to early February should be a good predictor for the season, as that draw contains four winnable games: Providence at home (1/16), Rutgers (1/20, road), a trip to Morgantown (1/23, an improbable win), DePaul (1/27, at home) and closing out at Providence (2/2). If they can win four out of that run the chances of having five wins going into the BET are very good.

Departures -- Providence Thru South Florida

The Clearing Fog...Part 3 of 4
Attrition through the first eight (alphabetically speaking) teams was primarily graduation/end of eligibility. If Lance Stephenson, Greg Monroe and Samardo Samuels left early for the NBA, Stanley Robinson & Jerome Dyson, Edgar Sosa, Luke Harangody and Lazar Hayward finished out their college eligibility and helped their teams earn NCAA invitations. The teams in this, the third (alphabetically speaking) share a common thread of loss through transfer, draft and dismissal.

Providence

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Sharaud Curry	SR	G	Grad
Ray Hall	SR	C	Grad
Johnnie Lacy	FR	G	Transf
Brian McKenzie	SR	G	Grad
Russ Permenter	JR	F	Transf
Jamine Peterson	JR	F	Dismsd
James Still	FR	F	Suspd

The Friars, without the inside presence provided by the Class of 2009, struggled to a 12-19 (4-14) record last season. Coach Davis sacrificed scouting and preparation time for teaching fundamentals and installing his system. Ray Hall, Brian McKenzie and Sharaud Curry's departures were known (and no doubt planned for), but losing two transfers who each spent a single season in the program, given they were Davis' recruits, is troubling. It is one thing to clean out your predessors' recruits, quite another to see players you invested time and effort to recruit to the school and program, leave so quickly. Lacy and Still were arrested after allegedly assaulting another Providence student in early April. Lacy, who had previously announced his intent to transfer, was, along with power forward James Still, suspended pending the school's investigation. Still's status remains "suspended" for the time being. Jamine Peterson was dismissed last week after an undisclosed violation of team rules. Greedy's departure, unanticipated, was painful given his emergence last season as the team's leading scorer and rebounder. Coming on the heals of the April incident are making Davis' early years reminiscent of his predessor's first years.

Rutgers

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Patrick Jackson	SO	F	Transf
Hamady Ndiaye	SR	C	Grad
Mike Rosario	SO	G	Transf

The Fred Hill Experiment in Piscataway is over. His departure was not enough to deter all-purpose scorer Mike Rosario from transferring to Florida where he will sit next season before resuming play in 2012. Robert Morris head coach Mike Rice has stepped in and assembled a staff for next season. Rice has picked up a few recruits in the last two weeks and has, in the long run, a good opportunity to build a program at Rutgers. But in the short run, the Scarlet Knights will be hard pressed to replace N'Diaye and Rosario.

Seton Hall

Player	Class	Pos	Status
John Garcia	5 SR	F/C	Grad

The Pirate list is dominated by the names not present, rather than John Garcia, a good, but often injured center, whose eligibility ran out last season. Head Coach Bobby Gonzalez will not be back. He was fired following the Pirates' first round loss to Texas Tech in the NIT. Iona Head Coach Kevin Willard hired in early April, has a staff in place and several recruits in the fold already. After a brief flirtation with the NBA draft, prolific scorer Jeremy Hazell and mobile forward Jeff Robinson decided to give the South Orange school another season. Herb Pope, a talented if erratic, #4 continues to rehabilitate from a collapse (and subsequent hospitalization) during a pre-draft workout. He too pulled his name from the draft pool and will, pending a recovery, return to the Hall next fall.

South Florida

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Chris Howard	SR	G	Grad
Dominique Jones	JR	G	NBA-In
Ryan Kardok	SR	G	Grad
Mike Mercer	SR	G	Grad
Alex Rivas	SR	C	Grad

Jones, co-winner of the Big East Rookie of the Year in 2008 and named to the Big East All First Team last March, will be missed. Chris Howard, once he was healthy, started for four seasons, dishing 485 (or so) assists over his career. He averaged 10.3 points per game in 35.8 minutes in his senior season. Mike Mercer, a Georgia transfer played a single season for the Bulls (plus four games in 2009 before he was injured), logging 944 minutes in 33 games. Advertised as a prolific scorer, he never found the groove with the Tampa school, averaging 9.2 points per game while hitting 20% of his 3 point attempts. Alex Rivas, a JUCO with two years of eligibility, was a fixture in the rotation who provided rebounding and depth.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: At the Big East Tournament Day 2

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY - Georgetown and Syracuse have staged some epic battles. In fact they have met twelve times in Big East Tournament play. Tomorrow will be 13 as Georgetown defeated South Florida 69-49 to open the second round at Madison Square Garden. The four factors and efficiency in a 62 possession contest:

			FTM
	ORtg	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
South Florida	80	30	29	41	20
Georgetown	111	52	14	33	16

Defense was the key for the Hoyas. South Florida 33% from two point range. The Bulls were 0 for 8 from three against DePaul but USF coach Stan Heath said he has shooters and they would have to hit a few or more from the perimeter against the Hoyas. The Bulls were 1 of 10 beyond the arc and did not hit a three until 20 seconds remained and the game was in hand.

Dominique Jones of USF led all scorers with 21 points but he did not get help as Georgetown , as noted, defended very well. South Florida did win the battle of the boards with an 18-11 edge on the glass.

Hoya band battles Seton Hall band

Their turnover rate was too high especially for a game of this pace. Jones had 6 of USF’s 12 turnovers but the outstanding junior guard was virtually the only player on his team taking a consistent offensive initiative.

USF had an edge on the foul line. Chalk it up to stiff ling Hoya defense that at times got a little too aggressive. Jason Clark and Greg Monroe both scored 16 points as John Thompson III’s club had a balanced attack.

Georgetown had a 32-28 edge in scoring in the paint. Not a big surprise as USF struggled from the perimeter, even on fifteen footers.

“I’m pleased with our focus. When they (South Florida) made a run early second half we didn’t get frustrated” - John Thompson III

Out for a stroll on the Garden floor

Preview 2009-10 -- South Florida Bulls

Too Busy for the Details?
Coach Stan Heath heads into his 3rd season at the helm in Tampa with a decent nucleus of returning players -- the centerpiece of which is junior 3rd Team All-Big East Dominique Jones -- and a mixed bag of JUCOs and true freshman to fill out the roster. Jones is a good player to build a team around, but if the prolific scorer is called on to carry this team, the 2009-10 season will be remembered by the South Florida faithful as a disappointment. The Bulls will improve on their 2009 4-14 Big East record/#14th place finish, the only question is how much. Prognosis -- A 4th quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2010	2009	2008
%Min	70.9	55.0	55.1
%Pts	71.6	56.4	52.8
%FGM	69.8	55.7	50.4
%3FGM	67.5	66.9	39.6
%OReb	58.4	44.8	57.4
%DReb	65.9	45.1	55.1
%TReb	63.3	45.0	55.8

The 2010 edition of the Bulls will be the most experienced squad South Florida has fielded since they joined the Big East in 2006. Coach Heath will return starters at the #1, #2, #4 and #5. There are no rehabbing red shirts for the first time in 2 - 3 seasons. And the Bulls have some Big East-level talent returning in the form of Dominique Jones who made the All Rookie team in 2008 and was an All-Big East Honorable Mention last season.

	According to Pomeroy...
	2008-09		2007-08		2006-07
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Overall ORtg	100.6	84	106.5	108	101.5	168
Overall DRtg	98.1	112	97.4	99	96.9	91
Big East ORtg	93.6	14	93.6	16	92.5	14
Big East DRtg	106.3	10	106.3	14	106.4	14
Four Factors -- Overall
All Off. eFG%	44.8	318	48.8	207	49.3	200
All Off. TOv%	19.6	121	20.0	108	24.9	317
All Off. OReb%	34.5	105	35.2	83	35.2	101
All Off. FTA/FGA	34.9	206	43.0	27	47.7	7
All Def. eFG%	47.2	83	48.7	113	47.5	72
All Def. TOv%	17.6	318	18.3	302	19.7	245
All Def. OReb%	34.9	263	33.1	177	33.4	161
All Def. FTA/FGA	37.7	208	33.9	117	31.7	73
Four Factors -- Big East
BE Off. eFG%	43.5	16	46.6	14	47.3	10
BE Off. TOv%	18.6	8	19.6	9	23.8	16
BE Off. OReb%	34.5	8	33.8	7	32.6	9
BE Off. FTA/FGA	31.0	10	39.2	4	44.3	1
BE Def. eFG%	48.8	6	50.1	10	49.6	11
BE Def. TOv%	16.7	14	16.2	14	16.6	14
BE Def. OReb%	34.5	11	34.6	12	34.8	11
BE Def. FTA/FGA	34.9	10	38.4	9	31.9	7
Miscellanious
All Gms Cons	21.7	232	21.3	204	26.7	327
All Gms Luck	-.066	306	-.108	335	-.073	305

That blip in the overall offensive rating in 2007-08 was Kentrell Gransberry, the Bulls' 6-11 center transfer (from LSU) who led the team for 2 seasons before moving on. Coupled with (then freshman) Dominique Jones, the pair provided Coach Heath with a very good inside-out attack. Conference play last season saw South Florida continually plagued by an inability to convert possessions into points -- see their Big East offensive rating of 93.6 -- largely due to shooting. Note Four Factors offensive stats that show the Bulls ranked in the middle of the conference in turnovers, offensive rebounds and getting to the free throw line...and at the bottom for field goal conversion (eFG%). Dominique Jones is a tremendous offensive threat, but he is the only weapon in the Bulls' 2009 arsenal. And everyone in the conference knows it. The guy would be even more effective if USF had a consistent low post threat (think Gransberry here), or someone (else) on the wing who could stick it consistently (maybe Mike Mercer?).

	For the Record...
	2008-09			2007-08			2006-07
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	9	22	0.290	12	19	0.387	12	18	0.400
Big East	4	14	0.222	3	15	0.167	3	13	0.188
Post Season?	BET/Rnd 1			No			No

The Bulls' Nucleus
Coach Stan Heath will bring back a decent collection of players for 2010, the best squad he has had since arriving in Tampa. It only took him 3 seasons, but he finally has a big or two to go with his wing gunner. And a point guard who can get them the ball.

On Offense
Player	Min%	ORtg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTR%
Jones	93.3	104.3	28.8	29.8	47.7	1.03	5.8	37.1
Howard	84.9	92.1	17.9	15.1	41.8	0.92	2.8	46.5
Gilchrist	48.5	87.6	27.3	30.4	43.3	0.91	7.7	31.4
Sanchez	43.0	89.8	15.6	12.9	53.3	1.09	8.5	51.1
Leemow	39.0	71.9	11.4	11.7	30.3	0.63	1.4	14.5

Note that of the returning members of the squad, only #2 guard Dominque Jones had an ORtg >100. Jones was pretty much the offensive show. He drew "Go-to Guy" level shots and possessions as the Bulls stuttered when Jones was cold. Coach Heath has worked to bring a few more scoring options onto the Bull's roster this season.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Dominique Jones	93.3	10.9	28.7	15.6	1.1	2.3
Chris Howard	84.9	10.0	26.4	23.5	0.5	2.0
Augustus Gilchrist	48.5	12.9	5.4	16.2	4.2	0.7
Alex Rivas Sanchez	43.0	21.0	1.3	27.5	3.0	2.1
Justin Leemow	39.0	7.7	15.2	24.0	0.2	2.4

The Bulls will need defensive rebounding if they are to compete effectively in the Big East. Gilchrist, more a #4 than a #5, was a below average defensive rebounder last season. He will no doubt get better with experience alone, but the Bulls will need more immediate help with their opponent's misses. Sanchez and Howard have to cut down on their turnovers if they expect to see the court much this season, as possible upgrades will be available off the bench.

Significant Additions
Looking at his 3rd season in Tampa, Coach Heath's recruiting has not quite shifted away from "tryout mode" to something more selective. After bringing in 6 players for the 2008-09 season (3 of whom will be with the team going into this season), he will bring in another 6 new players, including a single JUCO (6-11, 240lb #5, Jarrid Famous), a single transfer (6-1, 170 lb #1 Anthony Crater moving over from Ohio State) who will be eligible at the end of the fall semester to back up senior Chris Howard, and 4 true freshmen, 2 of whom, 6-6 #2/#3 Mike Burwell from East Brunswick, NJ by way of Kent Prep and 6-5, 225lb, #3 Jordan Dumars, son of NBA player Joe Dumars, who, if he doesn't draw much PT, will certainly get local ink. The last two, locals #2 guard 6-4 Shaun Noriega and 6-8 #4 Toarlyn Fitzpatrick, fill out the class.

Famous will provide the low post presence missing since Kentrell Gransberry took his game to the NBA's D-League at the end of the 2008 season. Burwell, a 5th year senior was the leading scorer at Kent Prep, taking a good many shots from beyond the arc. If Burwell and Famous are as effective in the Big East as they were at their previous stops, junior scorer Dominique Jones should really be able to operate. Absent an inside threat in 2009 (and having reviewed 2008 USF game films of Jones' very prolific freshman campaign), opposing defenses tended to concentrate on shutting Jones down, and did so fairly effectively. Georgia transfer Mike Mercer, eligible to play in 2009, but dismissed from the team in January 2009, was reinstated in late August by Coach Heath. Mercer played 125 minutes scoring 34 points in his very short, 4 games career with the Bulls.

Explode If...
1. Famous, Sanchez & Gilchrist can provide effective low post presence. The Bulls need a credible threat in the paint -- Howard should be able to deliver the ball, but can one of the 3 finish?
2. One, preferably more than one of Mercer (best bet?), Leemow, Shaun Noriaga or Mike Burwell finds his shooting eye. More threats, inside and outside will make Jones more effective. It's called synergy.

Implode If...
Chemistry/discipline problems or catastrophic injuries aside, it is difficult to see this program falling. After all, it's not very far from #14 to #16. The Bulls won a record (for their time in the Big East) 4 conference games last season. This squad should have more Big East-level talent and be deeper than 2009 (or 2008 for that matter). 1. Opponents key on Jones and no one else can convert field goals. Not very likely given Mercer and Gilchrist, both of whom are not bashful about putting up shots.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
The Bulls face an early season test as they open the season hosting Virginia of the ACC in Tamps. Part of an effort to upgrade their schedule, the Bulls will also face Kent State in late November. After Virginia they will participate in the 2009 Charleston Classic, facing Southern Conference power Davidson in the first round. The second round game will pit them opposite the winner/loser of the South Carolina/La Salle game. The La Salle team is expected to challenge for a top spot in the A10 conference and a possible post season bid this season, while South Carolina earned an NIT bid for their work last season. A couple of wins in this early schedule will definitely boost the Bull's RPI/SOS (not to mention their confidence) going into conference play.

After opening in Louisville on 12/30, the Bulls return to Tampa to host Notre Dame (on Tuesday 1/6/2010), this tilt should provide a clue about their season. The Irish do not travel well, suffered an unexpected early season road loss to St. John's in 2009, and lost to the Bulls in Tampa back in 2006-07. Can it happen again? The Bulls' two game homestand in late January (Seton Hall on 1/28, followed by Pitt on 1/31) may be a good barometer. Win either or both, or at the very least make them competitive, and the South Florida fan-base will have reason for optimism. With home games against Rutgers (1/16), Cincinnati (2/16), St. John's (2/20) and Providence (2/27), the opportunities for 5 or more wins are in place for the Bulls. Combine with road games against a few programs expected to be in down cycles (Providence -- 1/23; Marquette -- 2/13; DePaul -- 3/2), and improvement on their 2009 finish is possible. The three game sequence in mid-February (@Marquette -- 2/13; home with Cincinnati -- 2/16 & St. John's -- 2/20) should yield at least one win, with 3-0 or 2-1 being very strong indicators that the Bulls are ready to run.

Signs of the 2009 Off Season #2 -- International Teams

After a few early roster adjustments the USA Basketball organization has announced the preliminary rosters for this summer's teams. The USA will enter a team in the World University Games, to be held in July 2 - 12 in Belgrade, Serbia. Twenty four teams, manned by students currently enrolled in a college or university, will compete for gold, silver and bronze. Tryouts, to be held at the Olympic Training Center in Colorado Springs, Colorado between June 16-24, according to a USA Basketball press release. Corey Fisher is one of 16 college players invited to compete for one of the 12 available roster spots. Other Big East players invited to tryout include Da'Sean Butler (wing, West Virginia), Lazar Hayward (forward, Marquette) and Dominique Jones (guard, South Florida). Hayward and Butler are rising seniors, Fisher and Jones are rising juniors. Bo Ryan of Wisconsin will serve as head coach, with two assistants to be announced later.

USA Basketball will also field a U19 team for this summer's World Championship Tournament, to be held in New Zealand July 2 - 11/12. Seventeen players will compete, according to the USA Basketball press release, for 12 roster spots during trials to be held at the US Olympic Training Center in Colorado Springs, Colorado, June 16-18. The team will depart for New Zealand on June 25. Villanova recruit Dom Cheek, a veteran of the U18 team that competed in Argentina in the summer of 2008, has been invited to tryout. Another Villanovan, Maalik Wayns, had to decline an invitation earlier due to a minor knee injury. Other Big East players invited to tryout include Kemba Walker (pg, Connecticut), also a veteran of the 2008 U18 team and Darryl "Truck" Bryant (guard, West Virginia). The team will be coached by Jamie Dixon, Pittsburgh head coach. Dixon will be assisted by Chris Lowery, head coach at Southern Illinois and Matt Painter, head coach at Purdue. ESPN's Andy Katz provides thumbnails on each invitee in a 5/27/09 entry in his blog.

Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim will chair the selection committee for both teams.

Congratulations to Dom and Corey and all of the Big East players invited to participate!

Preview -- South Florida

The Wildcats and Bulls have their one game this season in Tampa on Saturday. In a made-by-conference series, Villanova leads 2-0. Hopefully the Wildcats can stay on their run...

Common Opponents, Good Wins, Bad Losses...
The 'Cats and Bulls faced two common opponents so far, Niagara was an OOC opponent, and Louisville was a conference opponent:

	Nova		USF
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Niagara	W (H)	+15	L (H)	-15
Louisville	L (H)	-1	L (H)	-14

South Florida (Big East, 7-11, RPI #150) has had few notably good wins or notably bad losses. Their best win was against Northeastern (CAA, 12-6, RPI #64). The most damaging loss to date would have to be the 26 point loss versus Oral Roberts (Summit, 8-11, RPI #155)...

Lineups, Rotations...
...Coach Stan Heath has brought in quite a few players in the past 20 or so monthes. Nowhere is the challenge of integrating these parts more obvious than in the starting lineup. For the 18 games played to date, the Bulls have used no less than 10 different starting lineups. That includes three different lineups in their first six Big East games.

In the front court Coach Heath has his choice of freshman transfer Gus Gilchrist (6-10, 235lbs) or junior Alex Rivas-Sanchez (6-10, 230lbs) to man the low blocks. Gilchrist has, since his appeal to play was granted in mid-December, conistently drawn minutes, whether or not he starts. Heath can draw from a pool of tweeners that includes seniors Mobolaji Ajayi (6-9, 225lbs) and Aris Williams (6-9, 235lbs) and freshmen Mitch Emory (6-6, 205lbs) and Eladio Espinosa (6-7, 220lbs) to man the #4/#5 spots. Lately (the Big East season...), Coach Heath has platooned Ajayi with Espinosa or Williams and Gilchrist. Gilchrist and Williams started the Bull's last game (the second DePaul game). Whether they start or come off the bench, Ajayi and Williams draw double digit minutes, even as Eladio's minutes seem to fluxuate in a range of 9 to 26 minutes (most often double digits). Gilchrist started as soon as he was eligible (the Niagara game), but despite being rotated in and out of the starting lineup, has managed to consistently draw minutes in the range of 15 to 32 minutes ever since. Sanchez's playing time by contrast, has fluxuated widely from game to game and Emory has played in a single game this season.

The back court is a bit easier, as Coach Heath will start sophomore Dominique Jones (6-4, 205lbs) and... two of senior transfer Jesus Verdejo (6-4, 205lbs), red shirt junior Chris Howard (6-3, 200lbs) and freshman Justin Leemow (6-1, 175lbs). Howard is an experienced point guard with a pass first mentality. He is ranked in Ken Pomeroy's Top 500 for assists and is second on the team (behind Jones) for assists. Leemow has appeared in all 18 of the Bull's games, but has logged only 25.3% of the playing time available for a guard position. Jones (91.4), Verdejo (86.3) and Howard (79.3) have logged large blocks of time. Freshmen guards BJ Daniels (6-1, 212lbs) and Gaby Belardio (6-2, 180lbs) are available when Coach Heath wants to dip deeper into his bench. Both have appeared in about 10 games this season.

Dante Cunningham, Antonio Pena, Dwayne Anderson and Scottie Reynolds will start for the Wildcats. The last spot will go to one of the Coreys (Fisher or Stokes) or Reggie Redding. Shane Clark, his wrist secured in a flexible cast for the Connecticut game, will see time as well. Cunningham had foul trouble against the Huskies, playing a total of 14 minutes, easily his season low. Anderson and Stokes had efficient scoring that night, the problem is they played relative small roles in the offense, taking only about 1 in 6 available shots when they were in the game. Pena logged a strong game on the boards versus the Huskies; the 'Cats will need him to do the same against the Bulls.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
USF plays for about 63.1 possessions, ranking it among the lowest of the down tempo teams in D1. Their (adjusted) offensive/defensive rating, 106.2/97.5 suggests they play pretty good offense and pretty "average" defense. A look at the "numbers underneath" give us an idea of how they do it.

When South Florida has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Bull O	46.2	20.5	37.0	39.5
Wildcat D	45.1	22.2	29.6	37.0

Expect a battle under the Bull's basket. Nova is performing at a near elite (ranked according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report (#53) level while rebounding their own misses is one of the several (according to the same Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report) offensive skills (at which they excel - ranked #52) which the Bulls have employed to mask their shooting deficiencies this season. Bull shot making is very mediocre (I am being kind here), ranked at #257 by Ken Pomeroy. There is no special deficiency (unless you count free throws, which the Bulls have converted at a 60.2% rate), as South Florida is ranked in the mid 200s for FGM% in both 2s (45.6/#247) and 3s (31.8/#248). Offensive rebounding, combined with getting to the line, have helped the Bulls compensate for their inability to score consistently with their first FGA of their possession. Dominique Jones generates a good deal of the offense, with his shot% at 28.6 and offensive rating at 109.2, but as his eFG% (at 48.5) & PPWS (1.08) suggest, he has no consistent inside threat in the form of a Kentrall Gransberry to draw some defensive attention. He is taking a lot of the shots as he was last season, but this time they are not dropping because he is drawing a good deal of the defensive attention. Gus Gilchrist, eligible since mid-December, will be up to speed...next season. He and Jesus Verdejo nearly match Jones in shot% (28.0 & 27.7 respectively), but are no more efficient (eFG%s of 47.4 & 48.8 respectively) and considerably less accurate (PPWSs of 0.98 & 0.97 respectively) -- the monkey on their collective backs it seems, is the free throw line. Gilchrist hits at a 51.7% rate while Verdejo converts 64.4% of his FTAs. Turnovers should be interesting because the 'Cats are pretty good (not great) at forcing turnovers while the Bulls seem no better than average (ranked #) for valuing the ball. The weak link may well be Chris Howard, whose individual turnover rate 24.0 is just barely on the good side of his assist rate (25.1). Howard in fact is notably good at setting up his teammates, but his good work is undermined by the turnovers.
The "Four Factors" look at Villanova's offense versus USF's defense:

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	50.7	18.1	36.3	41.0
Bull D	45.6	18.8	35.8	41.4

Note the matchups when Villanova has the ball are mirror reverses -- where Villanova excels USF fails, and where Nova struggles, the Bulls excel. Such is the state of shooting, as the Wildcats slide towards the middle of D1 (ranked #105) while the Bulls hover at near-elite levels (ranked #57). The Wildcats would do well to take their chances on the inside against Gilchrist (or Williams...Verdejo...Ajayi), as USF seems particularly good at defending the 3. The Bulls struggle to rebound defensively, do not tend to force turnovers and do not keep opponents off the line. While their numbers suffer from having faced Pittsburgh, Louisville and Syracuse, three of the Big East's stronger offensive squads, the Wildcat's prospects clearly hang on their ability to score against the Bulls front line, or generate second and third chance opportunities...

Want to Beat the Bulls? Then...
Shooting dominates as a critical factor for both squads. But for USF, Nova's turnovers can affect the outcome. Villanova appears to be sensitive effectively limiting opponent's second chance points
1. Defend their shooting -- When the Bull's eFG% was 41.4 or less they went 1-7.
2. Hit your shots -- The conversion rate seems a bit low, but when USF's opponents have shot 44.0 or better (eFG%) the Bulls record has been 2-10. Nova's record when they have converted at 44.0 or better is 13-2.
3. Value the ball -- The Bull's are 2-8 when their opponents have a TO% of 20.5 or less. The Wildcats have had a TO% that high or higher in 7 games so far.
4. Limit their 2nd chances -- The Bulls rebound about 37.0% of their misses. When Nova allows an OR% that high they have gone 1-2. The Bulls are 2-7 when they have been held to that rebounding rate or lower.

Finally...
...Coach Heath appears to be running a kind of extended team tryout for the #3, #4 and #5 spots. While he is asking Jones to do more (even distribute the ball in addition to score), he needs consistent second and third options on offense. The Bulls can defend, but shooting presents a challenge for them. Coach Wright has settled on a rotation that goes (foul trouble or blow out excepted) of between 8 and 9 players.

According to calculations, this game should go for about 61 possessions (South Florida's comfort zone), with the 'Cats taking a 5 point decision. If the possessions are that low, Nova should be able to win if they score at least 65 points.

Eye Candy From 08/12/27

Perpetual Tryouts?
Reviewing the South Florida box scores over the past two seasons reminded me of baseball spring training. This season alone Coach Heath has employed 9 different starting lineups for the Bulls' first twelve games. His rotation ranged from 8 (3 games, Virginia, UCF & UAB, relatively close losses all) to 12 (5 consecutive games, from Niagara to Oral Roberts), though double digit minutes are typically given to only 7 - 9 of those players. Heath has tackled the additional challenge of integrating 2 transfers into the USF rotation in the runnup to the Big East season. The shuffling rotation has to confuse the players; it sure has confused me.

The Accidental Co-ROY
Which brings me to Dominique Jones, the quite unexpected Big East Co-ROY from the 2007-08 season. Largely off the grid for the Media Day both he and Pitt's DeJuan Blair made their noise during Pitt's and USF's OOC slate. If Blair had the benefit of a national media debut versus Duke in December, Jones was quietly racking up ROY of the Week kudos from the Big East front office. Running against previous trends that largely discounted outstanding performances from freshmen of lower division teams, Jones' string of 20+ and 30+ point games could not be ignored. Benefitting from the spring tryout atmosphere last season, Jones appears to be the victim this season. Heath moved him out of the starting lineup at one point to make room for Georgia transfer Mike Mercer, an experiment that lasted two games; indeed after pulling down consecutive starts and logging 25+ minutes in several games that followed, Mercer has disappeared altogether in the Bulls' last two games (injury? Coach's decision?). Jones meanwhile has slowly re-emerged, and his performance against Iona last night suggests he may be back for the season. The box scores said a lot, but the table below ought highlight how remarkable his shooting performance really was:

Mins	Pts	FGM	FGA	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS
38	36	12	16	36.7	35.1	96.9	1.98

Jones played 95% of the minutes at his position, which means his possession/shot percentages are very close to the team-wide stats. Jones took fully 1/3 of the Bulls' FGAs, and (no wonder they continued to feed him...) hit at a far better rate than his teammates. His PPWS of 1.98 suggests he was close to scoring the equivalent of a 2FGM every time he released an FGA. He was 7-9 from beyond the arc, and 5-6 from the line, numbers well above his season-long averages.

Big East Freshmen: The 2008 All-Rookie Team

Why would I want to revisit last season's rookies so far removed from last season...well a few of these ten (minus Donta Greene -- departed for the NBA) will be team leaders next season. But even those returning to "well stocked" teams will be expected to show progress over their freshman production. I put together 2 tables, the first looks at possession-based offensive numbers (Poss%, Shot%, ORtg, eFG% and FTRate), along with PPWS, a stat thats gives us an idea of how effective a player is once he gets his shot off. Besides, these were, in the opinion of the press and conference coaches, the eleven best freshmen in the conference, and I was curiuous to see if the numbers supported those opinions.

Player	Coll	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shot	eFG%	PPWS	FTRate
Greene	Cuse	89.2	105.4	23.2	28.2	50.5	1.07	25.5
Flynn	Cuse	88.5	112.9	21.7	22.7	52.6	1.13	34.1
Jones	USF	87.1	111.3	24.0	25.9	53.0	1.15	42.1
Burrell	SJU	78.5	84.4	22.5	23.0	42.9	0.95	33.3
Koshwal	DPU	78.0	101.2	20.3	18.2	50.0	1.05	43.1
Hazell	Hall	67.0	111.7	20.4	24.6	51.1	1.09	28.1
Blair	Pitt	64.6	109.2	24.4	22.2	53.7	1.12	47.6
Freeman	GTown	63.5	115.0	18.4	20.2	60.3	1.25	21.9
Tucker	DPU	56.8	107.4	28.1	31.7	51.1	1.07	28.0
Chandler	RU	54.7	87.6	31.3	31.6	46.6	0.96	34.1
Fisher	Nova	53.1	94.1	25.5	27.5	42.3	0.93	26.9

Statistics were drawn from Ken Pomeroy's web site, the last update (usually the April 7 version) of each team's "Scouting Report" Page. Click on the College beside any player to scroll to his college's Scouting Report.

The players are ordered by playing time (percentage of available minutes they actually played). While playing times may have varied greatly, note that possessions and shots (ie role within their respective team's offense...) showed a good deal less variaton. Virtually everyone of them was a first (Chandler, Tucker), second or third option on offense. Austin Freeman's possessions may seem light compared to the others, but consider that Georgetown had a very balanced offense last season -- Freeman's Poss% and Shot% numbers were almost identical to senior Jon Wallace's numbers. Compared to the 2007 All Big East Rookie Team, the 2008 edition seemed a bit less efficient offensively as well. Of the three whose ORtgs were <100, Rutgers' Corey Chandler and St. John's Justin Burrell seemed conspicuously out of place -- I cannot recall finding a player on an All conference team with an ORtg < 90. Consider the circumstances of each however. St. John's, like Rutgers a "scoring challenged" team in 2007, lost a good deal of it's scoring punch in the off season with graduations and transfers. Going into the season with a class of 7 freshmen to fill out the roster around a couple of upper classmen, the Johnnies found themselves starting the season without their best returning scorer, Anthony Mason Jr. Li'l Mase ended up missing a total of eight games over the course of the season, and Burrell, the most heralded of the incoming class, shouldered a good deal of the scoring burden, quite possibly more than he may have taken on had Mason been healthy in November. Burrell, who finished the season as the Johnnies high scorer, drew a good deal of attention from opposing defenses throughout the season. Corey Chandler of Rutgers faced a similar situation going into the season. Though no significant contributor on the Scarlet Knight's roster was injured, there was actually no "significant contributor" on the roster in the first place. Rutgers, lacking a go-to guy since Quincy Douby entered the NBA draft early in the 2007 off season, had limped through Coach Fred Hill Jr's inaugural season with a team offense (ORtg) ranked at #291 out of 336 in 2006-07. Forward JR Inman took more shots and scored more points, but Chandler, despite missing 3 games near the mid-point of the Big East regular season, drew a good deal of attention from the defenses. He was very capable of having a big night, as many Wildcat fans know all too well.

I grouped the rebounding and some of the defensive stat together for the table below. Anyone having trouble understanind why Mac Koshwal was on the Rookie Team need look no farther than his OR% and DR% for an answer...

Player	Coll	OR%	DR%	%Blk	%Stl
Donte Greene	Cuse	5.5	15.7	4.8	2.0
Jonny Flynn	Cuse	2.0	6.0	0.5	2.3
Dominique Jones	USF	4.5	10.0	0.8	2.6
Justin Burrell	SJU	6.6	15.8	2.4	0.8
Mac Koshwal	DPU	12.0	18.0	2.2	2.3
Jeremy Hazell	Hall	3.1	6.2	0.6	2.9
DeJuan Blair	Pitt	16.6	23.2	4.6	3.9
Austin Freeman	GTown	4.9	8.7	0.3	2.1
Dar Tucker	DPU	8.7	14.1	0.9	2.4
Corey Chandler	RU	6.2	9.5	1.9	3.9
Corey Fisher	Nova	1.6	8.0	0.0	2.8

Co-ROY Dominique Jones may have put up some gaudy numbers for the Bull's offense, but a look at the rebounding numbers for DeJuan Blair of Pittsburgh more than explains why he shared the ROY honors with Jones. DeJuan's OR% and DR% are Top 100 (#6 and #59 respectively), surprising when I realized he was also Top 500 offensively (ORtg). I confess when I first reviewed Blair's dimensions I doubted he would be tall enough and mobile enough to compete in the Big East. He proved to be both. No wonder Cassiem Diggs transferred out after a single season.

The Good Surprises...
DeJuan Blair & Dominique Jones (am I starting to sound like a broken record?). Blair may have had a local reputation coming into Pittsburgh, but he was under appreciated by media and fans nationally. His coming out party at Madison Square Garden, complements of Duke, was marred only by the season-long loss of Mike Cook. Blair went on to share ROY honors with South Florida's Dominique Jones. Something of a practice phenom, Jones got the starting nod over better known redshirt freshman Dante Curry and veteran Solomon Bozeman (both of whom subsequently transferred...) and scored 13 points in his first outing. Near the end of the Bull's out of confernce schedule Jones had a 3 game scoring jag of 30, 30 and 25 against Central Florida, Richmond and Alabama-Birmingham, respectively. That got everyone's attention. Jones went on to score 20 or more points, including a career high 31 against Seton Hall, during his inaugural Big East season. Accomplihsments may pale when measured against Blair and Jones, but Seton Hall's Jeremy Hazell was, for me at least, another pleasant surprise. I had expected Nutter and Laing, along with Harvey, to provide the offensive punch for the Pirates this past season. While the Seton Hall back court seemed crowded (and talented), Hazell proved there is always room on Coach Gonzalez's roster for a scorer.

The Bad Surprises...
While virtually no one tabbed McDonald's All American and Villanova freshman Corey Stokes as the preseason ROY (ok, maybe I did...), not making the All big East Rookie Team was a letdown. Despite some strong exhibition outings, as the season started, the freshman struggled to find his spot in the offense. Stokes adjusted, he learned to play Villanova Defense and began to come on at the season's end. Georgetown's Chris Wright, a very heavily recruited point out of DC, was injured just before the beginning of the Big East regular season and despite a series of post season appearances, ultimately appeared in less than ½ of the Hoyas games, logging < 300 minutes total. Despite some promising numbers (56.4 eFG%, 1.12 PPWS), Wright had virtually no impact on the team and the games he appeared in.

No Surprise (thankfully)...
Mac Koshwal and Dar Tucker, both out of DePaul, were as good as advertised. Unfortunately aside from senior Draelon Burns, the balance of Demons team was worse than advertised. As disappointing (maddenly inconsistent) as the 2007-08 Demons were Burns, Koshwal and Tucker were not. And that kept a season that was extremely disappointing and frustrating from becoming far, far, far worse. Though Syracuse's Jonny Flynn did not, as predicted by the preseason prognosticators, take share the ROY award with teammate Donte Greene, he was every bit as good as most thought he would be. And he will be back in 2008-09.

Vinny Pezzimenti Moment -- Week 16

Another "two steps back" week for the Wildcats. Two double digit losses, albeit to two of the better (read bye seed) teams in the Big East. Still, it would have been good to see the young cats be competitive in those games...

My Big East Blogger Poll for this week:

1 - Louisville
2 - Georgetown
3 - Notre Dame
4 - Connecticut
5 - Marquette
6 - Pittsburgh
7 - West Virginia
8 - Cincinnati
9 - Villanova
10 - Syracuse
11 - Seton Hall
12 - Providence
13 - DePaul
14 - St. John's
15 - South Florida
16 - Rutgers

Who's Up...Who's Down...
Georgetown and Louisville are set for The Showdown next Saturday. Each has run through the last part of their schedule without a hiccup. The Cardinals and Hoyas having kicked the Golden Eagles, the Huskies and Irish down to the next level (not far down, actually) are firmly established as exclusive owners of the Big East Penthouse. Their showdown, will set the #1 and #2 seeds for the Big East Tournament. As for the next three, Notre Dame, Connecticut and Marquette, all have have two games scheduled for next week, but the heavy lifting should be over. The Golden Eagles finish out against the Orange next Saturday (in the Dome), but take a break first against the (Just Plain) Eagles of Florida Gulf Coast on Tuesday evening. The timing of this game is odd, but maybe it's because the (Just Plain) Eagles are in great demand. According to Ken Pomeroy (Marquette Schedule Page), the Golden Eagles (that's Marquette) are favored by 38 points. Degree of certainty? Again according to Pomeroy, 100%. I can think of a few other Big East that would welcome a game with the (Just Plain) Eagles right about now. The Syacuse game will certainly not be a walk-over for Marquette, but the Orangemen are, to this point in the season, squarely in the Rugby scrum that has developed at the next level of the Big East. I did not change any of the rankings among those five as nothing "unusual" happened last week. If all goes as predicted (by Pomeroy and others...), those rankings will most likely hold, with the winner of Louisville at Georgetown taking #1 and the loser taking #2, into the Big East Tournament. I did not change the ranking of the #6 - #11 teams either, though I expect the next set of rankings will reflect some of the end of the season games next week. Pittsburgh travels to West Virginia to close out their home-away series with the 'Eers. The Panthers won in Pittsburgh by a point. The game, played tonight, should the most interesting game (outside of Washington DC) in the Big East this week.. The bottom quartile has, like the top quartile, pretty much settled in. With the Bulls win in Piscataway over the weekend, they pretty much settled who would take the last spot in the conference (Rutgers). St. John's did hold serve against Seton Hall on Saturday, and have managed, however briefly, to put themselves back into the conversation about the BET. The Johnnies are one of three teams at 5-11 going into the last two games, I did have DePaul & Providence swap places. All three will compete for the last two seeds in the BET. Given that collectively they will face Cincinnati, & Pittsburgh (DePaul), Connecticut, & Villanova (Providence) and Notre Dame & West Virginia (St. John's), teams that can win 1 will most likely be assured of a spot. For the others it comes down to tie-breakers.

This week's OWs...
Luke Harangody of Notre Dame got my vote this week, despite the fact that the Irish went 1-1 on the week. Harangody scored 64 points in two games, 40 against the Louisville Cardinals on Thursday, followed by 24 against the Blue Demons on Sunday. That was 64 points on 27-46 (3-5!, 24-41, 7-10) shooting. Amazing work. Haragody provided 47.1% of Notre Dame's offensive output for that game. He also pulled down 12 rebounds and dished 4 assists for that game. His efficiency numbers for the 2 game run were PPWS - 1.28 and 62.5, those are not as impressive as the raw score, until you realize he was providing something on the order of 50% of Notre Dame's offense. He was not the second/third option down the floor. It would be very difficult to make a stronger argument for Player of the Year for anyone other than Harangody. Also noteworthy was Joe Alexander's 49 point week. Joe put up 17 points against DePaul and 32 against Connecticut. The ROW was another old reliable, Dominique Jones of South Florida. Jones scored a combined 48 points against Rutgers (31 points on 9-17, 2-6, 7-11, 11-14) and Seton Hall (17 points on 6-17, 2-6, 4-11, 3-4) on 15-34 shooting. His PPWS (1.13) and eFG% (50.0) were impressive given (like Harangody...) the amount of the offense he provided (about 34% of the shooting), especially for a freshman.

Vinny Pezzimenti Moment -- Week 14

Villanova had a "break even" week, going 1-1. The Georgetown road game went down to the last possession, while the 'Cats handled the Johnnies very easily at Madison Square Garden on Saturday night. Hopefully the 'Cats are pointed in the right direction and will put together a run that will insure last Saturday will not be their only appearance in the Garden this season...

My Big East Blogger Poll for this week:

1 - Louisville
2 - Georgetown
3 - Connecticut
4 - Notre Dame
5 - Marquette
6 - Pittsburgh
7 - West Virginia
8 - Cincinnati
9 - Syracuse
10 - Villanova
11 - De Paul
12 - Seton Hall
13 - St. John's
14 - Providence College
15 - South Florida
16 - Rutgers

Who's Up...Who's Down...
Georgetown had a rough week; they went down to the last possession with Villanova in a Big Monday match-up and then lost by 7 to the Orange at the Carrier Dome. Louisville meanwhile kept on rolling. After beating the Hoyas to take the top spot (in my opinion anyway) the weekend before last, the Cardinals rolled over the Blue Demons and went into the Dunkin Donuts Center to beat the Friars last weekend. Notre Dame dropped their head-to-head with Connecticut Wednesday, so I swapped their positions this week. The Irish did manage to get by Rutgers on Saturday. The Scarlet Knights, despite their 2-12 record, have given a few teams problems this season. Coach Calhoun has shortened his rotation considerably over the past nine games. He has not used more than 10 players in any one game, staying with 8 or 9 players in 6 of those 9 games. He as allocated double digit minutes to no more than 7 players (only in the first two games of the sequence) and has relied on a nucleus of 6 players (Adrien, Austrie, Price, Robinson, Thabeet and Wiggins), allocating double digit minutes to them exclusively in 4 of the past 5 games. As for the two arguably most heralded players in last year's entering class, he has not reinstated Jerome Dyson (suspended along with Doug Wiggins before the Indiana game on January 26), and severely reduced Curtis Kelly's minutes. Kelly has seen no PT in the past three games. It appears to be working as the Huskies are on a 9-0 run through last weekend. I also swapped Pittsburgh and Marquette, largely on the strength of the Warriors' win over the Panthers on Friday night. And the last swap based on head-to-head from last week was Villanova and Seton Hall -- the Pirates dropped two more games last week (to Marquette and then West Virginia on Sunday), extending their losing streak to five games. The pattern of having a dogfight over the last few spots in the BET, established in the first two seasons, appears to be holding this season as well. The bottom seven teams appear to form a cluster, and unless one of the "Top Nine" implodes in their last 4-6 games, it seems likely that the four left out of the BET this season will come from those "Bottom Six" (DePaul, Providence, Rutgers, St. John's, Seton Hall, South Florida and Villanova).

This week's OWs...
After considering two Cardinals (Williams and Padgett), and Fighting Irish guard (Tory Jackson), I decided to go with AJ Price of Connecticut as my POW. Williams & Padgett turned in great performances against DePaul and Providence. Williams scored 34 points on 13-24 shooting (but his 3-9 from beyond the arc continues to be a killer for him), notching an eFG of 60.4 with a PPWS of 1.22. Padgett scored 31 points on 12-15 shooting (eFG of 80.0 and a PPWS of 1.43 -- both eye catching numbers for efficient scoring). Jackson led the Irish to a 1-1 week by scoring 30 points on 12-23 shooting, good for an eFG of 63.0 and a PPWS of 1.24. Jackson also nabbed 17 rebounds, dished 14 assists and tallied 4 steals. AJ turned in two very strong games, the first turning back the Irish, the second an overtime road squeaker against South Florida. Price scored 49 points on 18-37 shooting, good for an eFG of 56.8 and a PPWS of 1.15. He grabbed 5 rebounds and 3 steals as well as passing for 16 assists. Price took 32.3% of the Huskies' FGAs when he was on the floor, clearly he is clearly the mover in the UConn offense. His shooting and leadership, coupled with Doug Wiggins' hot hand, appear to the reason the Huskies did not falter when Dyson was sent packing. The South Florida Bulls managed a win and a very close loss last week, and Dominique Jones was a crucial piece to the offense in both games. Jones turned in a 29 point performance as the Bull upset Syracuse, and then another 16 points in their overtime loss to Connecticut over the weekend. Jones notched a 51.8 eFG and a 1.22 PPWS.

Vinny Pezzimenti Moment: Week 12

Villanova's slide continued last week with two more losses posted against their record. The first, a road loss at Pittsburgh is not especially surprising with how the team has played on the road this Big East season (a lacklustre 1-4), but the home loss to Syracuse was disappointing given they had beaten the Orange on the road early last month and jumped out to a 10 point lead to start the game. Starting slow and having to play from behind has been a marker for the recent problems, so Saturday seemed (at least at the 10:00 minute mark of the first half) to be the day when they would stop the bleeding. Not so apparently...

My Big East Blogger Poll for this week:

1 - Georgetown
2 - Notre Dame
3 - Louisville
4 - Connecticut
5 - Marquette
6 - Pittsburgh
7 - West Virginia
8 - Seton Hall
9 - Syracuse
10 - Cincinnati
11 - Villanova
12 - DePaul
13 - Providence
14 - Rutgers
15 - St. John's
16 - South Florida

Player of the Week: AJ Price, Connecticut

Rookie of the Week: Dominique Jones, South Florida

Who's Up...Who's Down...
Georgetown extends their streak atop the Big East. Connecticut and Louisville move up on the strength of their wins, while Providence and South Florida (and Villanova...) are heading down (they keep losing).

This week's OWs...
AJ Price of Connecticut is my POW. AJ turned in two very good games against Louisville (20 points on 8-17 shooting, good for an eFG of 52.9 for the game) and then against Pittsburgh last weekend (21 points on 6-12 shooting, eFG of 54.2) Even though the South Florida Bulls lost twice last week Dominique Jones continues to tear up the court. Dominique turned in a 15 point performance in the Bull's loss to Marquette, and then 24 in their loss to St. John's last weekend.

Reynolds Makes CHN's All Big East December Team

Jeff Fox over at College Hoops Net put together an All December Big East Team. Looks like Scottie would man the point on this three guard team. He would run with DePaul's Draelon Burns (saw more than enough of Draelon last week...), South Florida's sensational freshman Dominique Jones, Notre Dame's Luke Harangody and Pittsburgh's super frosh DaJuan Blair (saw a lot of him last week too). Not a bad team at all. Interesting that the Wildcats faced two teams with hot players in their first week of Big East play.