The Atlantic 10 Tournament: Six Takeaways

Eleven Games, Four Days, One Winner...
...16 winners actually. The entire Atlantic 10 Conference won as Commissioner Bernadette McGlade made the decision to switch the conference tournament site from Atlantic City (every inch the gracious host for the last six years) to the brand new Barclay's Center just across the Brooklyn Bridge from Madison Square Garden. The Big East have their Garden Party, but the A-10, five of whose members garnered NCAA bids on Sunday evening offered a host of interesting matchups for their four day Coming Out Party last weekend. Covering the tournament for another publication, I was able to enjoy four terrific days of basketball as the Barclay's Center debuted as a conference tournament venue.

1. "Our whole style of play is to get the other team rattled" -- Shaka Smart after his team lost to Saint Louis in the A-10 Tournament Final. On the strength of their HAVOC defense the Rams were able to climb out of a 45-32 hole and close to 46-45. VCU used a combination of a full court press and half court traps to force the normally unflappable Billikens to turnover the ball without a shot, and quickly convert those turnovers into points at the other end. The Bills, like Temple the weekend before, exhaled, posted a big (usually Loe or Dwayne Evans) along the middle of the back court and swung the ball inbound to the opposite side from the inbounder. Once in, the ball handler (usually Jett or Mitchell) would draw the second defender and then to the big posted in that middle zone. Press broken, Saint Louis had to insure not to pass to a forward posted too close to the sideline or midcourt line, which would inevitably draw the second VCU defender for a trap. How many tournament teams have the experience and ball handling skill to counter the Rams' press? Akron for example (VCU's next opponent) has a freshman and sophomore oriented squad that turns over 20% of their possessions without a field goal attempt. The Zips will be in for a long night Thursday...

2. Saint Louis Will be a Tough Out -- "...they have all of the ingredients of a team that can make a run in the NCAA Tournament: They are very well coached; they have older guys that don't get rattled; they're good inside; they're good outside and they defend" -- Shaka Smart after the A-10 Tournament Final. The Billikens drew a #4 seed Sunday, giving them #12 seed New Mexico State, the 24-10 winner of the Western Athletic Conference championship in the opening round on Thursday in San Jose, California. Both Saint Louis and New Mexico State have been there before, but the Billikens having advanced to the field of 32 last time, are ready to go farther.

3. The Atlantic 10 is a Very Deep Conference -- The conference matched it's all-time high for NCAA bids with five Sunday, but also advanced three teams, Charlotte, Massachusetts and Saint Joseph's, to the NIT which kicks off Tuesday (tonight). Richmond, eliminated in a controversial opening round match with Charlotte Thursday, will try to improve it's 18-14 in the CBI Tournament. Xavier, which had it's NCAA run stopped at seven consecutive this season and was snubbed for the NIT, passed on a CBI invitation. Had the Musketeers accepted, the conference would have had 10 of 16 members playing after Brooklyn.

4. Saint Joseph's Has a Hard Time Coming Back -- Coach Phil Martelli's Hawks squad was the conference coaches' favorite going into the season. Well stocked at all five positions, the Hawks have the option to "go big" with Aiken, Kanacevic, Roberts and a backcourt of Jones and Galloway, or "go small" by starting sophomore Chris Wilson beside Galloway and Jones, and bringing Aiken (or Roberts) in off the bench. Blessed with that flexibility, the Hawks nevertheless need to take the lead and control the game flow to insure a successful outcome. Of their 13 losses this season only three were by six or fewer points (ie 1-2 possessions), leaving this observer with the impression that, given their offensive system requires multiple screens and/or picks to develop a shot opportunity, falling behind poses a larger than usual obstacle to putting points on the board quickly. Although they cut Virginia Commonwealth's 10 point half-time lead to three (and then back to four) Friday night, the Hawks were effectively out of the game when they fell behind by 13 after Halil Kanacevic picked up an offensive foul (change of possession) and a technical with 11:22 left in the second half. The Rams added two more 90 seconds later, pushing their lead out to 15. Though the Hawks finished with a 36-24 run, they were not really in it, trailing by double digits with 94 seconds left and by at least two possessions, until Langston Galloway nailed a three point attempt with 13 seconds left to cut the deficit five. The play that netted center Papa Ndao his eighth three of the season took nine seconds to develop. Facing a Saint John's team (in the Battle of the SJUs?) in the first round of the NIT, the Hawks will have to guard the shot and control the boards to insure the Johnnies don't jump ahead quickly on them.

5. The Subway and Schedule Gave the Media Choices -- The media turnout Saturday was larger than I remember in Atlantic City. By starting their first semi-final game at noon and their second second semi-final before 5:00 pm, the Atlantic 10 was able to draw the considerable New York City media (not to mention filmmaker Spike Lee) to Brooklyn (and back to Manhattan) before the Big East Championship Final tipped off at 9:00 pm. The A-10 started their Women's Championship game at 7:00 pm and drew the media and fan following typical for women's basketball -- a brilliant counter scheduling move by the A-10. Las Vegas, by hosting the Mountain West, the Western Athletic and the West Coast Conference, has established a presence in Division I basketball, but the Big Apple, by hosting both the Big East and the A-10 tournaments simultaneously, gave fans an outstanding Championship Week experience.

6. Saint Louis Won the War, but VCU Won the Battle...of the Bands -- College basketball bands tend to be miniature versions of the mammoth marching bands that serenade BCS football teams. Virginia Commonwealth is not terribly different, though the Rams, like several school bands, augment their normally brass and drum-heavy sound with a couple of electric guitars and performed several half-play half-sing/chant musical offerings. What set the Rams apart was the physicality of their performance. The tuba players danced as the rest of the rather large contingent of musicians danced, bopped and bounced as they played some of their more exuberant numbers. Well known offerings like "Thriller" were given a different, brassier, edgier treatment by the VCU band which often, by simply changing the beat or adding syncopation, lent a very different (and refreshing) musical interpretation to the number. A second place to the La Salle band, which consistently lent a bouncy, funky interpretation to their music, which seems a good deal closer to the temperament of Philadelphia than their A-10 brethren, Saint Joseph's and Temple.

Random Thoughts After First Friday

As I Was Scanning the Scoreboard, Twitter, Messageboards, etc
A progessional obligation kept me away from the TV set (ie ESPN) as Division I resumed with a vengance Friday night. Though the season "started" with a dribble of games -- mostly campus site games for early season invitational tournaments -- Friday brought a whopping 131 games. I have not checked to see if all those games involved two D I opponents, we can guess that nearly 246 of Division I's 348 teams (69.5%) saw action. After streaming the Villanova-Monmouth game (a 106-70 rout) I started a wider search for comments/scores. Sifting through the scoring summaries and catching a few tweets, I found a handful of games that caught my eye...

What a Difference a Year Makes (part 1)
Big 5 fans followed the progress of Saint Joseph's freshmen class from a very uneven start in 2010-11 to a brief florish close the season. Western Kentucky, a Sun Belt Conference power over the years, thumped the Hawks 98-70 to open last season at the Hagan. This season the Hawks opened in Western Kentucky and returned the favor as they beat the Hilltoppers by 11, 72-61 in Bowling Green, KY. Guards Carl Jones and Langston Galloway did their thing (16 and 19 points respectively with three assists and five steals), but not seeing sophomore forward Ron Roberts in the starting lineup was a bit surprising (Hofstra transfer Halil Kanacevic got the nod and logged eight minutes before fouling out). Roberts did get a 31 minute run, recording his first double-double of the season -- 10 points and 11 rebounds. The really good news was C. J. Aiken's 35 minutes. The 6-9 center blocked five shots, scored 12 points, and drew only three fouls. Coach Martelli's charges will see Georgia Tech Thursday night in the Charleston Classic. This will be a reunion of sorts, as the Yellow Jackets are now coached by former Dayton head coach Brian Gregory. It should be a great opportunity for the Hawks to draw some national attention.

Oops, Wrong First Impressions...
An extremely enthusiastic tweet from Chris DiSano of College ChalkTalk about Rhode Island's freshman forward Jon Holton (and a follow up about senior guard Jamal Wilson's awesome 38 point outburst) sent me on a search for the Rhodi-George Mason boxscore. The game went into overtime with the Runnin' Rams dropping a two point (90-92) decision on the road. My first check on possessions had the game (overtime included) at around 92 possessions. I was wrong (I'll blame the unofficial box score for that...yeah, that's the ticket, it was the unofficial box score...), the calculation from the official box score puts the possessions at 87...which means my first thought -- Rhode Island needs more offense -- was off base. The Runnin' Rams gave up 1.06 points per possession to the Patriots, and handed the CAA another win over the A-10 (a problem come Selection Sunday). Granted Coach Baron is going to have a reliable second and third option, Wilson is not going to shoot 13-22 (1-2, 12-20) to go with an 11-12 from the line every night, but he has options now in his front court with senior Orion Outerbridge and sophomore Nikola Malesevic if the two forwards can exercise better judgement on their three point attempts. Combined they hit 3-14 from beyond the arc (nine points on 14 attempts), while shooting a combined 4-8 inside (eight points on eight attempts). Wilson by the way, posted a 61.4% eFG with a 1.39 PPWS, both will be noted elsewhere when I file my first report. Holton will need to work on his shot (2-11 from the field, 7-10 from the line), but he will see minutes because he is a rebounding monster -- he snagged a stunning 34.7% of the available defensive rebounds when he was on the court. URI might be able to get a bit more offense when Auburn transfer Andre Malone and Virginia transfer Billy Baron become eligible late next month. For now Coach Baron may have to rely on freshman Mike Powell to handle the point guard duties. For Powell GMU was something of a baptism of fire as he shot an underwhelming 3-11 from the field while handing out six dimes (nearly negated by five turnovers).

Wow, What a Difference...(part 2)
Saint Louis fans suffered through a multitude of basketball-related problems in 2010-11. I wondered going into the season how the Billikens would react to the log jam in the back court and whether they would find an offense to go their their lock-down defense (the Billikens were ranked #47 by Ken Pomeroy last season). Majerus is not reputed to be an especially "user friendly" coach, so losing one or more of the freshmen back court players before the season started would not have been too surprising (sophomore Christian Salecich did transfer out during the summer). The Bills struggled against the Carleton Ravens on their Canadian Tour this summer, losing red shirt junior guard Kwamain Mitchell at the end of their fourth exhibition, not the best sign going into the fall semester. Friday night they demolished Tennessee State of the Ohio Valley Conference, 71-37 (yup, the defense is back) before 6,400+ fans at Chaifetz. My numbers (unadjusted) show a 61 possession game (typical of Majerus), which means the defense is in mid-season form -- they held Tennessee State to a measly 0.60 points per possession), but the offense is still a work in progress. Mitchell started and coupled a horrific 3-11 outing with 40% shot rate in his 27 minute (66.7% of the playing time) run. Mitchell will get better (or take a seat on the bench, Majerus is not the most patient coach) to be sure. Conklin, along with sophomores Mike McCall and Jordair Jett compensated with very efficient shooting nights (combined they went 10-15 from the field). Limiting a team to 37 points is impressive. Saint Louis is headed off to the 76 Classic later this month, with a matchup versus Villanova a distinct possibility.

Speaking of Defensive Showcases
Buzz Williams' Marquette squad shut down Mount St. Mary's Friday night too, handing the Mountaineers a 54 point loss (91-37) to open the season. The offensive/defensive display was impressive, as the two played for about 71 possessions, thereby scoring about 1.28 points per possession, while limiting Mount St. Mary's to 0.58 PPP. The starting five Jae Crowder, Chris Otule, Darius Johnson-Odom, Vander Blue and Junior Cadougan (note the three guards?) did a nice job of distributing shots and possessions, which reminded me a bit of the Syracuse team from 2010. Blue in particular struggled late last season, but had an efficient outing (a 62.5% eFG on 5-8 shooting from the field, which computes to a 1.25 PPWS). Cadougan struggled a bit with his shot (4-9, 44.4% eFG), but made his double-double the hard way, 10 points to go with 10 dimes in 24 minutes of play.

Amidst the Blowouts
The Big East finished off their eight opponents -- home games all -- Friday night by an average of 25.3 points. Two exceptions to the exhibition of BCS muscle-flexing came in Morgantown and Piscataway. True West Virginia led from the opening tip, but Coach Bob Huggins' squad had to withstand a furious closing rush by the Golden Eagles to perserve a 78-71 win. The Scarlet Knights, like West Virginia, broke on top early, but needed free throws at the end to hold off Big Green. Coach Mike Rice's squad struggled on offense, converting possessions-to-points at a 0.98 rate (about 62.7 possessions). The shot conversion (50.0% eFG%) was fine, but turnovers (a 25%+ rate) undermined the effort. A 40.9% assist rate was not especially impressive either. If this is a representative game (at least until the freshmen catch up), expect the front court, powered by junior Dane Miller and sophomore Gilvyda Baruta to provide the points. Among the freshmen two guards, Jerome Seagears and Eli Carter posted nine points apiece on relatively efficient shooting. West Virginia played a predictably high 73 possession game with seniors Kevin Jones and Darryl Bryant providing a good deal of the offense. Surprisingly the staff started freshman Jabari Hinds at the point, and the 5-11 spark plug did not disappoint, scoring nine points to go with five assists. Freshman forward Miles Keaton also got the starting nod (a message to Kevin Noreen?) and snagged two rebounds and five steals in 21 minutes of play.

According to Glockner...Villanova's Out of Conference Slate

What's In a Name?
Sport Illustrated columnist Andy Glockner joined a growing list of talkig heads who have come to dispise -- and publicly admonish offenders -- those BCS "powerhouses" who pad their win totals with out of conference cupcakes. Long a problem recognized by the NCAA come tournament selection time (whose 24 wins are "better"?) and fans who have to sit through a 21st century equivalent of Christians vs. Lions for nearly two monthes, the topic "Who Has the Softest Out of Conference Schedule?" has letely become a favorite preseason preview topic. While the Selection Committee uses RPI and SOS metrics to determine how challenged a particular team might have been during the season, Glockner puts together a quick list (sort of a "You know you've scheduled a cupcake if..." test) of names to be avoided when scheduling an opponent. According to Glockner, "...Generally speaking, your team has scheduled a too-easy home win if the opponent's name has:

1) Any type of punctuation mark (ampersand, apostrophe, hyphen, period)
2) Any in-state directional notation
3) Any State that is not actually named for a state
4) Any name of a religion in it
5) Any affiliation with the SWAC, which is 2-213 over the past six seasons vs. teams in BCS conferences...(and the MEAC corollary mentioned later in his article

While Glockner takes Cincinnati and Louisville to task and gives Syracuse and Connecticut (dis)Honorable Mentions, he passes on Villanova. The Nova Nation is notorious for giving the program a hard time about the Wildcats' OOC, but how does Villanova's schedule stand up to the "Glockner Test"?

The 'Cats Score...
Big 5 opponent Saint Joseph's makes the list due to their apostrophe, though truth be told the Hawks should be better this season than their 11-22 record from 2011. Villanova will travel to the Hagan rather than the Palestra, for this game, removing any "location" advantage the 'Cats might have expected. Villanova's first round opponent in the 76 Classic, UC Riverside qualifies under Rule #2 (directional notation, in this case "Riverside"). The balance of the 76 field (no team ranked in the top 25 RPI from 2011, four teams #36-#82 in 2011, three teams ranked #125-#175 in 2011) is a bit underwhelming as well, but given the loss of seniors Fisher, Stokes and Pena, the remaining six opponents in the field are hardly pushovers for this season's squad. But UC Riverside, ranked at #259 in 2011 (RPI) is clearly the lowest seed in the field. Other possible qualifiers include American. Though the Eagles were ranked (a not too shabby) #127 last season, would being named after a country (a people?) qualify under #3? Probably not. Some Nova fans might wonder if Temple is named after a religion (rule #4). I am going to go with a No on that, especially since the Owls are one of the teams favored to win the Atlantic-10 Conference this season and went to the NCAAs in 2011 (and advanced farther in the field than the Wildcats).

Glockner's Score...
With an apostrophe school (that they take on the road) coupled with an assigned "directional" opponent, Villanova's OOC would seem to relatively cupcake-free. Long time Big 5 fans know that the 'Cats have had their way lately with La Salle and Penn, and that the presence of Boston University on the schedule was a nod to since-departed former Assistant Coach Pat Chambers (look for Penn State next season?), but those three, along with Temple and Saint Joseph's, were scheduled for reasons not related to roughage (traditions and Villanova family ties, etc.). Given the Wildcats return 44% of the minutes and 43% of the points scored from 2011, the slate of OOC opponents assembled will most likely yield two -- probably more -- losses going into conference play.

Dove Entrails & Tea Leaves -- Pythagoreas, Minutes and Points in the A-10

The Problem with Crystal Balls
As an expression (for the sake of clarety...), the process of determining how a team will do in the next season looks something like this...

How Team A will do this season = How Team A did last season - Team A players lost + Team A players gained + Team A intangibles

The Pythagorean Winning Percentage provides one of the best measures of how a team did in previous seasons. We can use a deductive approach to analyzing how the departed players will affect the next squad by looking at who is coming back, and what they bring. Incorporating new players into the mix is about the toughest part of the process...next to accurately assessing the impact of the intangibles of course. Taking a look at the first two elements (how Team A did and who Team A will bring back) is the start of the process, and once I have those two elements,it is easier to see how the last two could affect their performance and standing next season. Comparing each teams overall Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) against the average of the conference (about 54.5, the Atlantic 10 is a very good conference), then doing the same for returning minutes (based on rosters through early August) and plotting the differences to a grid provides a clear indication of where each team sits compared to the rest of the conference. I have been partial to returning minutes because I think it provides a good sense of the relative maturity of different squads, but returning points has value, and so I decided to plot a second grid with points in place of minutes, as those who check out the second chart below. Can points tell us something that minutes might not? Compare Xavier's position in the tables below...

The X-axis returning percentage of minutes (above) and returning percentage of points (below). PWP is the Y-axis. For the PWP/Returning Minutes chart above, the axis intersect at (54.5,66.4), while for the PWP/Returning Points chart below, the intersection is (54.5,66.7).

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A quick look and the two seem to virtually identical. A closer look uncovers a few differences worth exploring.

No Surprises Here
Temple and (sometimes) Xavier plot to the (upper left) above average quadrant for returning points and for the Musketeers, just below the average line for minutes returned (> average PWP, < average returning minutes), but the Muskies jump above the X-axis (average of returning scoring) in the second table -- a quick visual on the "value of Tu Holloway". For the past three seasons these two programs have turned the A-10 regular season into a duet. Those concerned about the X-men's minutes (ie experience) next season can relax, the program has learned to level the year-to-year ebb and flow of talent through the judicious application of red shirts and transfer eligibility rules. Coach Mack has Brad Releford, a rising junior sniper, Justin Martin, a red shirt (partial qualifier) freshman and Travis Taylor (transfer from Monmouth University) in reserve from last season, ready to step into the rotation for 2012. And even as I write, Isaiah Philmore, a transfer from Towson, will practice this season and be ready to step in 2013. Excellent programs can do that.

Coach Dunphy has not established that cushion for his Owl program, but every season a rotations/role player seems to step up and have a great year. Juan Fernandez and Ryan Brooks blossomed in 2010, while Scootie Randall and Khalif Wyatt did the same in 2011.

Testing Common Wisdom
Mature/experienced teams improve over their prior performances. That saw will be tested in 2012 as 2011 bottom-dwellers Fordham and Charlotte return squads that lost a combined 25 games in conference competition last season. Charlotte's fall from grace in 2011 (the 49ers returned higher-than-average minutes from a squad that posted a greater-than-average PWP from 2010) can be attributed to the education of rookie coach Alan Major. The transition from assistant to head coach, especially when a change of program is part of the transiton, can be bumpy -- Dayton fans take note. Coach Major brings in a large class rookie this season, which may be counter productive when installing new offensive/defensive systems. Coach Tom Pecora's Fordham squad showed improvement in his first season at Rose Hill, but the squad needs an infusion of A-10 level talent to establish momentum. Will he find them among the six new faces (freshmen) coming in for 2012?

For Saint Louis, Saint Joseph's, George Washington and St. Bonaventure however, the old saw may work out in 2012. Coach Mark Schmidt put the Bonnies on an upward trajectry when he took over in 2008. A-10 Player of the Year candidate Andrew Nicholson is a major reason, but Coach Schmidt has surrounded him with solid talent. Coach Mike Lonergan's hire last April places George Washington in a position similar to Charlotte's in 2011; a new coach taking charge of an experienced squad. Having seven years at the helm of Vermont gives Coach Lonergan an advantage the Major did not have however. Early season games against Syracuse, Georgia, UAB and Kansas State should give fans a good idea of where the program stands going into conference play. Coach Phil Martelli brought in a consensus conference-best class in 2011. Better yet, the class appears to be headed back to Hawk Hill for 2012 along with most of the eligible returnees, which ought to break Saint Joseph's two year run of 20 game losing seasons. Coach Rick Majerus' four year tenure at Saint Louis has been marked with a revolving door roster and a badly timed setback in 2011. 2012 should mark a substantial turnaround for the Billikens as they return nearly all of their (young) 2011 roster and suspended clutch guard Kwamain Mitchell. Should Coach Majerus' health hold up, the Billikens should have a hand in the conference race in 2012 and beyond.

When anticipating who would plot to the (lower left) "below average" on both factors quadrant, I thought the two last place teams, Charlotte and Fordham would be the strongest candidates. Both, it turns out, return more than average for minutes and points next season. The teams that did plot to the lower left quadrant are La Salle and Massachusetts, the teams that finished #9 and #10 respectively in 2011 conference play. The Explorers had a good balance of senior leadership and young talent, but was plagued with inconsistent play throughout the season. Some changes to the roster (especially when the freshman backcourt rotation -- Tyreek Duren, Sam Mills and Cole Stefan stay for another season) may benefit La Salle's prospects in 2012 (not to mention Dr. Giannini's job security).

For UMass however, the problem is inherent to the Dribble Drive Motion offensive system implemented by Coach Derek Kellogg. The DDM relies on a dynamic lead guard to either score via penetration or (when the situation calls for it...) get the ball to someone who can. The system needs reliable secondary scorers who can catch and and penetrate or shoot from the outside (when needed) and athletic front court players who can rebound and put back should the shooter's attempt miss. If the squad (especially that lead guard) not recognize and exploit/convert the scoring opportunities, the principal ball handler becomes a volume scorer. Since Gary Forbes' senior season (2008 -- Travis Ford's last as Coach in Amherst), Kellogg's lead guards (Ricky Harris and Anthony Gurley) typically take 30% or more of the possessions and shots, but the offense does not convert those possessions efficiently enough to win consistently. The problem in 2011 is that the scoring alternatives, Jesse Morgan and Freddie Riley had lower offensive (points per possession) ratings than Gurley. Those two and Chaz Williams, a 5-9 Hofstra transfer, will be next up as lead guard/scorer in the system.

Programs versus Teams
2012 should provide an opportunity to see which Coach Chris Mooney has built at Richmond during his tenure. The Spiders graduated a substantial percentage of their scoring and minutes over the past two seasons, but have a deep roster from which to draw. If the rotation players step forward (as Justing Harper did in 2011), the team should not take a large step back from their performance over the past two seasons. Can the same be said for Duquesne and Rhode Island, two other programs that played to the conference tournament quarter finals in 2011? The Runnin' Rams' Coach Jim Baron has had to scramble the past few off seasons to fill out his roster. Though he had early commitments, all too often they did not make it to campus, and the Rhode Island mentor had to rummage through JUCO lists and AAU rosters going late into July. This past season the needs were identified, those expected to return -- Akeem Richmond excepted -- will and the signees are all coming in as well. Those stitched together rosters produced three consecutive post season runs, but Coach Baron has never had so small a returning nucleus to start the season. Though transfers Billy Baron (the coach's son) and Andre Malone won't be available until after the fall semester, early season games at Texas and with regional rivals Boston College and Providence might provide a hing about Rhode Island's fortunes in 2012. Duquesne's Coach Ron Everhart has adjusted his gameplan to exploit the advantages a smaller, more mobile squad can provide. The frantic pace (#13 in D1 per Ken Pomeroy) caught unsuspecting teams off guard which, enabled the Dukes to earn a bye bid to the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament and a post season spot in the CBI field in 2011. Coach Everhart will have a couple of taller players to replace Damian Saunders and Bill Clark, but will they be as efficient?

Caveat Emptor
Consider that...
1. The rosters are still taking shape. In the past week La Salle fans learned that South Carolina transfer Ramone Galloway was granted a waiver to play immediately (headline announcement on the front page of the team's web site), while (not publicly acknowledged...) rising sophomore Cole Stefan left the program and the school. Some schools (Rhode Island for example) tend to delay announcements on academic probation. And injuries can strain resources (see Xavier and Temple early in 2011) or derail a season (La Salle in 2010).
2. Fans may have their favorites for preseason Rookie of the Year, but predicting the impact of any freshman is tricky, involving both talent and opportunity...with a large helping of luck.
3. Of the last five new conference coaches, Xavier's Chris Mack (hard to believe he will enter his third year as a head coach in 2012) has had the easiest path -- credit the solid program he inherited when Sean Miller moved on to Arizona. What can the struggles of Tom Pecora, a successful veteran coach charged with rebuilding Fordham and Alan Major, an Ohio State Assistant Coach whose first bite at the head coaching apple came at Charlotte suggest to us about Archie Miller and Mike Lonergan's first season at Dayton and George Washington respectively? Miller takes over a light roster and has to find bodies just to cover the next season. Combined with his lack of head coaching experience the Flyers will most likely struggle to match 2011's 7-9 conference mark. Lonergan, an experienced hand at Vermont, steps into a deeper and stronger roster. How drastically he moves the squad to his offensive and defensive systems and how hard he pushes the current roster to get there will probably influence how enthusiastically the roster responds.

Wash, Rinse, Repeat (pt 2) -- The 2012 Atlantic-10 Home and Away Slate

Flipping 2011 Home/Away Opponents
In addition to carrying the mirror opponents (home/away series opponents) from 2011, the Atlantic-10 schedule maker reversed the venues for the single game opponents. Charlotte visited Duquesne, Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, Saint Louis and Temple in 2011. The 49ers will host those teams as single game opponents in 2012. Does this balance their schedule over the two season period? Remember that virtually no teams return their entire rosters season-over-season. The average of returning minutes in the A-10 next season (to this point) is about 66%.

Home & Away According to Pythagoreas & Seed...
I decided to take the average of the home and away Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) -- conference games only -- for each team's set of opponents. I excluded mirror opponents (covered in the previous post) for this the compilation to focus on those match-ups that would not allow a return engagement (in the 2012 regular season). I also took the average A-10 conference tournament seed for each set of opponents, to determine if each team was facing an "average" set of opponents in the home or away setting -- the conference has 14 members, the "average seed" is 7.5...

	Non-Mirror Opps.
	Home		Away
Team	PWP	Seed	PWP	Seed
Charlotte	0.522	4.9	0.358	7.8
Dayton	0.341	7.4	0.531	6.8
Duquesne	0.319	9.3	0.614	6.6
Fordham	0.438	6.5	0.587	6.8
George Washington	0.526	7.3	0.565	8.5
La Salle	0.436	6.8	0.488	7.1
Massachusetts	0.334	9.3	0.711	6.3
Rhode Island	0.555	7.8	0.546	8.4
Richmond	0.370	9.1	0.710	7.4
Saint Joseph's	0.236	8.8	0.691	4.6
St. Bonaventure	0.538	6.8	0.555	8.5
Saint. Louis	0.477	5.5	0.379	7.9
Temple	0.557	7.9	0.553	9.5
Xavier	0.497	8.0	0.500	9.0
Avg.	0.439	7.5	0.556	7.5
Std.	0.099	1.3	0.103	1.2

As the table suggests, there is a sharp contrast in the PWPs among visiting teams and hosts. George Washington, Rhode Island, St. Boanventure and Temple appear to have the strongest slate of non-mirror opponents, and Temple looks as if their slate of road opponents may be marginally easier than their slate of visitors (though the Owls did catch a huge break on their mirror opponents). Looking over the PWPs for road games, it appears that Massachusetts, Richmond and Saint Joseph's have their work cut out for them. For the Minutemen and Spiders, this could be problematic, as the UMass returns 60% of their 2011 scoring (points) and Coach Chris Mooney's squad returns just over 31% of theirs.
Different Strategies for Different Circumstances
A common wisdom approach to scheduling strategy might want to schedule the stronger opponents into the home arena, thereby using the home court advantage to maximum effect, while taking the weaker opponents on the opponents' home court with the notion they could be beaten in either location. For teams whose objective is to break out of the conference's lower division (or cellar...) however a counter intuitive strategy might be the better choice. Hosting weaker opponents would maximize the chances of winning conference games, while conceding the road loss to the conference's stronger teams. Very few coaches would embrace a strategy that concedes losses even before the season even starts, but as a practical approach to accumulating wins, programs like Charlotte and Fordham have few options, at least until they rebuild their programs. How do the non-mirror match-ups compare when looking at those two different approaches?

Looking for Wins...Any Wins
Rookie Coach Archie Miller may have caught a break from the schedule maker. Dayton graduated All Conference forward Chris Wright, while also losing freshmen Juwan Staten (West Virginia) and Brandon Spearman (Indian Hills CC) to transfer. The depleted Flyers return 58.4% of their minutes and 58% of their scoring. Drawing hosting duties for Charlotte, George Washington, La Salle, Massachusetts and Rhode Island without having to return the favor. Rhode Island at this point, is in line to return less than 25% of their 2011 minutes in 2012. Miller should be able to post a winning home record among these five opponents. The seed versus PWP spread for the opponents visiting the UD Arena in 2012 is interesting, about average for seed, but a comparatively low road PWP. The spread suggests those teams did not travel well in 2011.

Richmond, like Rhode Island, will have only 40% of 2011's minutes available going into 2012, a (mirrors excluded) home slate of Dayton, Fordham, La Salle (again!), Massachusetts (ditto!) and Temple should help build some confidence (and post wins) for the Spiders of tomorrow. Their (non-mirror) road slate however, should be a bit more challenging -- Duquesne, Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, Saint Louis and Xavier. Should Coach Mooney's squad post a winning record versus those five, Richmond will be in a good position for post season consideration.

Massachusetts slumped at the end of their 2011 conference schedule, dropping their last regular season game to winless (in conference play) Fordham and then losing their A-10 first round game to Dayton. Lining up Charlotte, Fordham, Saint Louis, St. Bonaventure and Xavier for home dates should help to establish a winning home record in conference play. True as visitors the Minutemen will be hard pressed to win more than one game from their road slate -- Dayton, Duquesne, George Washington, Richmond and Temple -- but if they hosted those five would they win more than (say...) two?

Fordham's home slate -- Charlotte, Dayton, George Washington, La Salle and Xavier -- should provide the Rams with a few more winning opportunities than their road slate -- Duquesne, Massachusetts, Richmond, Saint Joseph's and Saint Louis. Returning a nucleus of Chris Gaston, Branden Frazier and Alberto Estwick provides Coach Tom Pecora with an opportunity to up Fordham's conference win total in 2012.

Making a Statement
St. Bonaventure has bettered their conference record in each of Coach Mark Schmidt's four seasons, finishing in the upper division 2011. With Andrew Nicholson a rising senior in 2012, the future maybe now, and the Bonnies drew a fairly balanced (in a PWP sense...) slate of (non-mirror) home and away opponents. Assembling a winning record at both home and on the road against those opponents would certainly serve notice the Bonnies are back, and probably put them in the conversation for a post season bid, preferably to a tournament whose name starts with an "N".

On paper George Washington appears ready to shop for more permanent digs in the A-10's upper division. Next season's (non-mirror) home and away slate seems fairly balanced per the average PWP (and note the average seed is consistent with the PWP). The question is whether new Coach Mike Lonergan can motivate the squad to perform in the face of a challenging road slate.

Temple drew the only slate that would fit the bill for an elite team -- face better teams (Dayton, Duquesne, George Washington, Massachusetts and Xavier) at home, lesser teams (Charlotte, Rhode Island, Richmond, St. Bonaventure and Saint Louis) on the road. The seed versus PWP contrast for the road opponents suggests that lineup, like George Washington's, were stronger in front of the home crowd than on the road.

Counter Programming?
On the heels of an unexpectedly good (slump at season's end excepted) season, Duquesne would probably have been better served with a stronger slate of visiting teams than Fordham, La Salle, Massachusetts, Richmond and Saint Joseph's. While there may be a measure of home crowd entertainment value in running up the score on Fordham or Massachusetts, but wide margins may (again?) obscure weaknesses in the Duke program.

Xavier drew a surprisingly balanced slate of single game opponents for both home (Fordham, George Washington, La Salle, Massachusetts and Temple) and the road (Duquesne, Rhode Island, Richmond, Saint Joseph's and St. Bonaventure). Note the home slate has an average seed within the standard deviation, while the road slate seed is just below the range established by the standard deviation (suggesting the Musketeers' hosts are better at home than on the road).

Caveat Emptor
Consider that...
1. The rosters are still taking shape -- at this point it appears that Saint Louis will return 92.8% of their minutes from the 2011 season (plus Kwamain Michell). Last June the Billikens were projected to return 82.7% of their minutes, but only 54% were on the roster when the season started. There are a variety of reasons why players, post NBA draft deadline, do not return to school, and every Atlantic-10 team has lost experienced minutes in June and later in the off season.
2. Timing can make a difference -- Duquesne ran up an 8-0 record through the first half of their 2011 A-10 slate against teams that finished the season with a collective 50-78 (0.391) conference record. Only two of those teams (Temple and George Washington) finished on the upside of 0.500 in their conference games.
3. Coaching changes can affect team dynamics, or not -- Charlotte's Alan Major had a rough rookie season as head coach, while rookie head coach Chris Mack's Xavier squad won the Atlantic-10 regular season title in 2010. George Washington's Coach Lonergan has six years of experience directing Vermont's program (and seven directing D3 Catholic University) before taking over at George Washington; the Colonials should show improvement over their 2011 conference record (health providing...). Dayton's Archie Miller, a long-time assistant, but looking at his first season in charge of a Division 1 program, may have problems matching departed coach Brian Gregory's 7-9 record.

Wash, Rinse, Repeat -- The 2012 Atlantic-10 Conference Pairs

The Flip Side of 2011
Though at least one fan blog hinted at the pairings for the 2012 Atlantic-10 Conference regular season back on June 1, the conference did not officially release the pairings until June 6. Rather than build the conference mirror opponents and home/away games from scratch for 2012 (or roughly based on the 2011 conference results), the schedulemaker apparently decided to keep the 2011 mirror opponents and flip each team's 2011 home and away opponents for 2012 -- Saint Louis played Fordham, George Washington, Richmond, St. Bonaventure and Temple on the road in 2011, so they will host those teams at Chaifetz Arena in 2012. Was this a backhanded attempt at a balanced (over a two year period) schedule? For those interested in the complete listing, visit the Conference announcement here.

Fair and Balances?
I had noted last June when looking over the Atlantic-10 conference pairings that a balanced schedule may be only one of many objectives a conference schedulemaker may have satisfy...and a lower priority objective at that. Since the conference kept the same mirror opponents for 2012 as 2011 for each team, I decided to take the average of the conference Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) for each team's mirros and compare them. Mirror games constitute 37.5% of each team's 16 game schedule. These pairings can provide a team with a big advantage (or a huge challange)...

	Mirror Opponents
	PWP	Team
Charlotte	0.735	GWU, Rich, XU
St. Louis	0.726	Day, Duq, XU
Dayton	0.724	Duq, SLU, XU
Saint Joseph's	0.670	Mass, Rich, TU
Fordham	0.612	URI, Bonas, TU
La Salle	0.582	GWU, Mass, TU
Duquesne	0.475	Day, Bonas, SLU
St. Bonaventure	0.453	Duq, Ford, URI
George Washington	0.438	Char, LSU, Rich
Xavier	0.380	Char, Day, SLU
Massachusetts	0.353	LSU, URI, SJU
Rhode Island	0.308	Ford, Mass, Bonas
Richmond	0.305	Char, GWU, SJU
Temple	0.208	Ford, LSU, SJU
Avg.	0.498
Std. Dev..	0.171

"Protecting" a rival clearly still holds for the coming season, as Xavier and Dayton will renew their in state rivalry, Temple will face both Big 5 rivals (La Salle and Saint Joseph's), while Massachusetts and Rhode Island will extend their regional (New England) rivalry with another home & away series this season. Travel appears to have played a role as well, as Charlotte, Richmond and George Washington have all managed another season with mirror games. Television match-ups, Xavier/Dayton aside, appears to be a minor consideration. Looking at the average of the PWPs, it may seem the schedule maker created a "balanced" set of mirrors conference-wide, the standard deviation (and a visual inspection of the list highest to lowest) would strongly suggest otherwise.

Notes & Observations
A blend of regional rivals may help Charlotte's travel budget, but George Washington was stronger than anticipated last season, and with new coach Mike Lonergan at the helm in place of the departed Karl Hobbs combined with the return of well regarded (but red shirted last season) Lasan Kromah, the Colonials should be an even tougher challange in 2012. The Spiders lost Kevin Anderson and Justin Harper (and Dan Geriot), but Coach Chris Mooney has a deep squad at Richmond, which suggests the 49ers will again post a losing record in these six games.

Duquesne and Xavier account for Dayton's high PWP average for 2011, but Coach Rick Majerus returns over 90% of the minutes from the Bills' 2011 squad, and also bring back suspended Kwamain Mitchell, an All-Conference player in 2010. If Duquesne can regain their early 2011 momentum, Dayton may be hard pressed to come away from that six game set with even one win.
Xavier's mirrors seem to be a good balance of rivals and travel, but Saint Louis may be a tougher opponent this time around.

St. Bonaventure may benefit from a down year at Rhode Island and continued slow progress at Fordham. Like Xavier, the Bonnies appear to have drawn a traditional rivals schedule (Fordham and Duquesne) with travel (Rhode Island) as a consideration too. Coach Schmidt's squad went 4-2 against those three in 2011, and, given the 25% returning minutes at Kingston in 2012, may do even better in 2012.

Massachusetts, like St. Bonaventure, earned a 4-2 record against their mirror opponents in 2011, but if Saint Joseph's, the beneficiary of a an above average percentage of returning minutes (69%), improves as anticipated, Coach Derek Kellogg may be pressed to repeat that record in 2012. For a coach already feeling a bit of heat, that may well be the tipping point in his tenure.

Coach Jim Baron will see only 24% of his 2011 minutes return for 2012, so even with a rather light set of mirror opponents, the Runnin' Rams may take a step back from their 2011 3-3 mirror record.

Temple's 6-0 mirror record last season was due, in large measure, to the weakness of their three opponents who managed a collective 11-37 record in conference play last season. Collectively Fordham, La Salle and Saint Joseph's will absolutely improve their record next season, but expect Coach Fran Dunphy's squad to post another 6-0 record versus those three. That is a huge advantage when putting together a conference record.

Top Fifteen Big 5 Value Add Returning Players

The City Series
Pulling out the five Division 1 schools that make up the Big 5 from the spreadsheet sent to me by from Cracked Sidewalks poster bamamarquettefan1, I was able to sort them down to find the 15 returning players with the highest Value Add rating. I doubt the top five are next season's All-Big 5 First Team (they are good players, but Big 5 tradition mitigates against four players from the same team -- even a Final Four team -- being named to the first team...), the pool is large enough to suggest most of the First and Second All-Big 5 Teams will probably come from the list below. From highest to lowest...

			KenPom		Value
Name	College	Rank	ORtg	DRtg	Off Add	Def Sub	Total
K Wyatt	Temple	107	114.1	95.4	2.54%	-1.72%	4.26%
R Moore	Temple	115	105.2	96.8	2.43%	-1.64%	4.07%
S Randall	Temple	122	122.7	97.0	2.86%	-1.08%	3.94%
Galloway	St. Joseph's	126	113.9	108.6	3.86%	0.00%	3.86%
Jefferson	Temple	182	105.0	95.7	1.11%	-2.01%	3.12%
Z Rosen	Pennsylvania	212	110.8	106.3	2.93%	0.00%	2.93%
M Yarou	Villanova	222	107.0	97.2	1.93%	-0.96%	2.89%
C Jones	St. Joseph's	237	104.1	111.0	2.78%	0.00%	2.78%
M Wayns	Villanova	252	103.8	99.1	2.67%	0.00%	2.67%
M Eric	Temple	362	101.0	94.5	0.56%	-1.50%	2.06%
R Roberts	St. Joseph's	648	104.4	110.0	1.15%	0.00%	1.15%
D Cheek	Villanova	654	100.6	98.0	0.75%	-0.40%	1.15%
Fernandez	Temple	710	96.8	98.0	0.46%	-0.58%	1.04%
T Duren	La Salle	717	102.7	108.7	1.02%	0.00%	1.02%
C Stefan	La Salle	837	117.1	110.7	0.81%	0.00%	0.81%

One number systems like Value Add (Sub) are valuable because they can, via rankings, promote discussion about players who might not easily come to mind when thinking "best" or "best 5 (15)". A list like this should stimulate discussion about the best players in Philadelphia, and given the ranking, I have spent a few days thinking about the players from Temple and Saint Joseph's going into next season. As a Villanova fan I would not swap Mouphtaou Yarou or Maalik Wayns for any of the players ranked above them in this list, but that four players from Temple are ranked #1, #2, #3 and #5 is a credit to Coach Fran Dunphy's ability to recruit to North Broad and rebuild the Owl program. While Coach Dunphy was recognized as a good program manager and game planner during his tenure at Penn, the whispers when he moved over as Coach John Chaney's successor were whether he could recruit players for a conference as competitive as the Atlantic-10. Temple's record over the past four seasons, coupled with a listing like this should silence those voices.

Observations...
1. That Khalif Wyatt made the top 12 is hardly surprising, after all he was honored as the Atlantic-10's Sixth Man in 2011; that he is the highest rated returning player however, did get my attention. Though I have followed Temple (and La Salle and St. Joseph's) with more interest over the past two seasons, I did not believe Wyatt was the impact player suggested by the ranking. Temple placed four players among the top five -- and from my time at the Atlantic-10 Tournament last March, I believe Scootie Randall's injury and absence from the tournament influenced Temple's inability to beat Richmond in the semi-final game. Ramone Moore was, unlike Wyatt, a regular rotation player (and starter) through the entire season.
2. Zach Rosen's spot on the list is no surprise at all. Health allowing, the senior should again make the First Team All-Ivy and All-Big 5. Having an opportunity to play a second season with fifth year senior Tyler Bernardini should give Penn the best backcourt in the Ivy League next season and one that will challenge the backcourts of the other Big 5 teams -- all five of the schools will boast sterling backcourts.
3. Langston Galloway, cited four times by the A-10 as Rookie of the Week and honored with a spot on that conference's All-Rookie Team certainly belongs on this list. For the curious, CJ Aiken, another rising sophomore from Hawk Hill, was ranked #16 on the list. Having a third rising sophomore, Ronald Roberts among the top 15 certainly bodes well for Coach Martelli's squad going into 2012.
4. La Salle's contribution to the top 15, Tyreke Duren and Cole Stefan are, like Galloway and Roberts, rising sophomores. Both are guards, suggesting that the competition for "best backcourt" in the City Series in 2012, will be very competitive. Note at Sam Mills, another guard, was ranked #25, behind two other returning Explorers, forward Devon White and wing Earl Pettis.

About the Defense -- Value (Sub)
A feature of the Value Add (Sub) system is that bamamarquettefan1 combined individual statistics -- steals, defensive rebounds & blocked shots -- with team-wide statistics (Ken Pomeroy's defensive rating, to create a defensive "value" -- Value (Sub) component that he calculated for each player ranked in his system. For those defensive elements for which no individual stats were available, he eleminated the individual defensive elements (shot blocks, steals, defensive rebounds, etc.) from each team's (Pomeroy's) defensive rating, allocated that remaining value (about 72% of the team's defensive rating) according to minutes played (Min% per Pomeroy) and then "added" the individual elements with that value to compute a Value (Sub) for each player. Unlike a plus/minus approach which tallies the points for and against for each time sequence a particular player is on the court (and by indirection assess offensive and defensive "value" by presence), this system relies heavily (about 72% of the weight of the "Sub" value) on the "team" element -- that part for which no direct stats are compiled. A number of the returning Big 5 players (seven in the top 15) contributed 0.0% beyond "normal" team defense, to their team. This was, according to bamamarquettefan1, is not unusual. Because the individual defensive stats -- defensive rebounding, steals and blocked shots (weighted in that order) -- are tallied and converted for each player, a player who contributes "below" his team's average for two categories (or even one if he is significantly below average for either defensive rebounding or steals) will compute to a 0.0% Value (Sub). Six of the seven players (Ronald Roberts excepted) are guards. Lacking defensive rebounding and blocked shots (traditionally not strong areas for backcourt and wing players), that should not surprise.

On Second Thought -- Plotting Trendlines for Atlantic 10 Teams (pt 1)

Under Water...
After I worked through the Big East 2011 season, I wanted to employ 3rd order polynomial trendlines to look at the Atlantic 10 conference season. I wanted to see how the trend line patterns might be similar and disimilar for BCS and non-BCS conference. The quick report is that there is little-to-no difference. But there is a quirk or two which gives me pause to think. The conference standings/seeds for the Atlantic 10 Tournament:

	W	L	Pct.
Xavier	15	1	0.938
Temple	14	2	0.875
Richmond	13	3	0.813
Duquesne	10	6	0.625
George Washington	10	6	0.563
Rhode Island	9	7	0.611
St. Bonaventure	8	8	0.500
Dayton	7	9	0.438
Massachusetts	7	9	0.438
La Salle	6	10	0.375
St. Louis	6	10	0.375
Saint Joseph's	4	12	0.250
Charlotte	2	14	0.125
Fordham	1	15	0.063

I have highlighted the teams featured in this post. Following posts, one (or two perhaps) to examine the teams that showed slumps/surges through the conference season, and a last post that will examine those teams who clearly (from the trendlines...) dominated in conference play, will cover all 14 conference teams.

Fordham

The gap between defense and offense suggests the Rams have a long road ahead

The Rams finished the season on a high note, the first conference win in 31 tries (over two seasons), in Coach Tom Pecora's first season. The program however has quite a distance to travel to even ascend to the middle of the conference pack. Progress for the next season will still be taken in measured steps -- a two or three win conference season, and hopefully a far narrower gap between the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies. Though Fordham won it's last game of the conference season, thereby breaking their 31 game losing run in conference play, the offensive trendline suggests their offense stalled (and defense slipped) through the last 2-4 games of the season. Those losses came against other struggling/slumping conference members. The gap suggests what the rest of the conference knows, Fordham last season was simply not competitive. The coaching may have been more savvy, but until the staff can surround Brandon Frazier and Chris Gaston with a solid cast, the Rams will continue to struggle in conference play.

Charleston

Another rookie Coach...another rookie season

Rookie Coach Alan Major took a largely intact squad that came within 1-2 wins of a post season bid in 2010, and registered a net -9 wins in 2011, -7 in conference play. Despite promising out of conference wins versus Tennessee and at Georgia Tech (both of whom fired their coaches at the end of the season) the 49ers sustained an offensive/defensive gap through much of the conference season second only to Fordham. Interesting perhaps, but certainly not good news to the 49er Nation, is how the trendlines moved in the same direction -- though the offense showed improvement through the last quarter of the season, the defense underperformed at an alarming rate.

Saint Joseph's

An end of season rally...

The freshmen will become sophomores, but the direction of the offensive trendline of 2011, like the closing win-loss rally through the end of the season (2-1 in the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament -- not captured in the graph) suggest there is more than simply another season of experience to count on going into the 2012 season. The next task for the staff is the team defense, often the more difficult of the two parts of the game, to both teach and implement. If the trendlines suggest direction, the Hawks should be better in 2012.

Massachusetts

Curves in the same direction...all season long

Having multiple teams whose offensive efficiency trendline (raw or adjusted) that does not cross over their defensive efficiency trendline seems to be common, somewhere between one in four or one in five conference teams generate third order polynomial trendlines that show this behavior. The anomaly of the Minutemen is that the trendline belies their won-loss record -- 7-9 -- the type of record that would suggest a rally at some point in the season (beginning, middle, end?) that would allow the offensive efficiency trendline to cross the team's defensive efficiency trendline. Strange indeed that though Coach Derek Kellogg's squad was a mere -2 to the won-loss margin and they opened the season with a 5-2 record through seven games, the squad never logged more than two consecutive wins through the 16 game season, and lost their first two conference games by a combined margin of -45 points. Through the last nine conference games, Massachusetts recorded a 2-7 record that consisted of two losing streaks of three and four games each. I have not developed enough trendlines to determine how common the Massachusetts trend is among conferences, BCS and non-BCS alike, but I suspect it is relatively rare. The same direction of the trendlines suggest that though the Minutemen did win 43.8% of their games, the wins were neither dominant, nor strung together in a sustained run.

2011 Atlantic 10 Tournament -- 6 Takaways

Pausing at the End of the Regular Season
After blogging five of the seven games in the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Friday, Saturday and Sunday, I reflected on what I saw in March 2010 and what I saw in March of 2011. The drive home was interrupted by texts and calls on the seeds and regions for the NCAA, but as the phone traffic died down and the Garden State Parkway behaved, I had a chance to think about the conference, the venue and what might be coming next...

1. Atlantic City is a great venue for a tournament -- The A-10 Conference was an outstanding host and Boardwalk Hall, not under siege from an offshore Nor'Easter as it was the first weekend March of 2010, provided a dry and comfortable, fan friendly venue for a college game. The attendance relies heavily on the A-10 member fan-base. The games did not draw much by way of street traffic. That was a problem, as neither Richmond nor Dayton, the finalists, are within short-term traveling distance from Atlantic City, and therefore unable to get to Atlantic City for the Championship game. Attendance for the semi-final games which featured two Philadelphia schools, was 8,285. Attendance for the Championship game was 5,602. Put another 5,000 fans in the seats and the place would rock.

2. Dayton's Old Habits Are Hard to Break -- After "counter programming" for three rounds, Dayton fell back into their old pattern in the championship game. And lost. In the first three rounds the Flyers took an early lead over their opponents (Massachusetts, Xavier and Saint Joseph's) through a mix of three point shooting and fast breaks. During that three game run the Flyers' three point completion rate -- 50.9% -- was better than their two point completion rate, 47.0%, and they scored 17 fast break points in their quarter and semi final games. Against Richmond the Flyers returned to form, they fell behind early on the road and spent the rest of the game playing catch up. Their three point conversion rate, 21.4% was lower than average, but two fast break points was a killer, and gave proof that Richmond's defensive strategy, defend the three point line, limit offensive rebounds and stay in front of Dayton's forwards and guards, worked. Dayton is headed to the NIT for the second consecutive post season. They won it all last season, and it will be interesting to see if Coach Gregory's squad can maintain the focus necessary to make a run this post season.

3. Kevin Anderson was unstoppable -- When Richmond needed points, he got them, or found the teammate who would. The Tournament MVP scored 66 total points over three games, an average of 22.0 points per game. The senior point guard score 24 points on eight converted three pointers, 22 from 11 converted two pointers and 20 points from the free throw line.

4. Temple was too small and too shallow to win three games in three days -- They need to get Scootie Randall back. Coach Dunphy used a seven man rotation against Richmond, and La Salle (discounting one minute stints for Dutch Gaitley and Jake Godino). It was not enough against Richmond, as the Spiders outrebounded the Owls by six (42 to 36), but more importantly, limited the Owls to a very paltry 25.6% offensive rebounding rate (the Owls rebounded just over 25% of their missed field goal attempts). That rate declined over the halves, from 27.8% to 23.8%. Were the Temple rebounders tiring?

5. Richmond's defense can win games -- Of defensive rebounding -- "...that's...not a tremendous strength of ours...this tournament was probably the most consistent we've every rebounded..." He went on to credit Darrius Garrett as their defensive stopped and principal rebounder. "...not a strength" is an understatement, the Spiders are ranked (per Ken Pomeroy) #291 (out of 345) for offensive rebounding, and a below average #195 for defensive rebounding. For the three games in Atlantic City, the Spiders' offensive rebounding rate rose to "above average" (the rank in the range of #147-#152) while defensive rebounding had the Spiders limited opponents to a 26.1% rebounding rate all season, would be ranked #5. That rebounding rate will win games. The defensive retooling, should it carry over into the NCAAs, should get the Spiders out of the first weekend.

6. Saint Joseph's...next year -- Their 6-5 finish to the season (after a 5-17 start) has assured a 17th season on Hawk Hill for Coach Phil Martelli...and raised expectations for next season? The veteran coach can look to a stable and productive backcourt pairing in Carl Jones and Langston Galloway that will be balanced with an inside presence in CJ Aiken, Ronald Roberts and Darius Quarles. The late season surge may be attributed to something as obvious as "We got tired of losing..." -- the sentiment expressed by a Saint Joseph's player in the Duquesne post game press conference, but the veteran coach will need more than the good feelings of a 6-5 finish going into next season. In addition to finding replacements for seniors Charoy Bentley and Idris Hilliard, Martelli has to hold this nucleus together through the off season. While Hawk faithful may feel recruiting errors have been the biggest program failing since the Hawks' 2004 run to the Elite Eight, holding onto and developing those players recruited has proven to be the bigger challenge.

Onto the Post Season...
NCAA -- Three A-10 teams Xavier (#6, East Region), Temple (#7, West Region) and Richmond (#12, Southwest Region) were seeded in the NCAA field.
NIT -- A single team, the Dayton Flyers were offered a spot in the field of 32. The Flyers will host Charleston Tuesday night.
CBI -- Three teams are entered in the Gazelle Group's College Basketball Invitational Tournament and will play their first round games Wednesday. Rhode Island will host Miami (Oh), while St. Bonaventure will travel to Central Florida and Duquesne will travel to Montana.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: A-10 Quarter Finals

by Ray Floriani

ATLANTIC CITY, NJ - The Atlantic Ten quarterfinals at Boardwalk Hall, gave us two outstanding afternoon games. Lower seeds pulled the upsets in both. The evening saw the higher seeds 'hold serve' with one blowout (Temple over LaSalle) followed by a close Richmond elimination of Rhode Island. Now, the game of the day. An easy one.
The scores...

Team	Score			Team
Dayton	68		67	Xavier
Saint Joseph's	93	OT	90	Duquesne
Temple	96		76	La Salle
Richmond	55		45	Rhode Island

Game of the Day:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Dayton	63	112
Xavier	61	106

Pace was moderate but to the eye seemed faster. That was due to both teams aggressively pushing the ball. The difference was, if the transition opportunity was not there, the offense shifted to half court mode. The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Dayton	60	16	40	23
Xavier	53	16	29	16

Dayton shot the ball well, aided by an 8 of 13 (62%) mark from three. Good thing they were on as the turnover rate cancelled almost a quarter of their possessions.

Rebounding was a pre-game priority and Brian Gregory's club responded well. Xavier did do damage in the lane however. They were 53% from two point range, enjoying a slight 32-28 edge in points in the paint.

Getting more into the 'numbers' approach, Dayton was swept by their in state rivals twice. Gregory emphasized that 70 of the 80 minutes, in the two games, Dayton was right there. The focus was on improving on those minutes they fell short rather than come in with the concern of facing a higher seeded opponent who swept you in the regular season.

Chris Johnson of Dayton led all with 10 rebounds. Johnson put together a nice showing with 12 points, an assist and two steals.

The Manley Efficiency leaders:

	Manley
	Eff.
C. Johnson, Dayton	22
Tu Holloway, Xavier	18
P. Williams, Dayton	14

Holloway of Xavier led all scorers with 23 points. He was 7 of 17 from the floor but did have five assists against just two turnovers.

Williams, a junior guard hit a few timely treys. He finished with 14 points, hitting 4 of 6 beyond the arc.

Xavier committed only 10 turnovers but Jamel McLean and Mark Lyons had four each.

Luke Fabrizius added 10 points in 15 minutes for the Flyers. The junior forward won't soon be forgotten in the annals of this rivalry as he canned two game winning free throws with 5.8 seconds left. Holloway's last second attempt from deep rimmed and Dayton was celebrating and semifinal bound.

Notes
Will be back with a follow up including a general look at the other three contests from the quarters. And, not to mention, pictures.

Xavier's Tu Holloway shows the disappointment
after the loss to Dayton

Atlantic 10 Tournament -- Revised log5, Post Quarter Finals

To the Finals
A quick log5 recalculation now that Friday's quarter finals leave only four teams in the field...

	Pythag.	Prob. Thru
Team	Win %	Semi	to Win
Temple	0.8797	0.564	0.505
Richmond	0.8496	0.436	0.378
Dayton	0.6986	0.729	0.051
Saint Joseph's	0.4632	0.271	0.004

If Temple's probabilities seem a bit low, look at the Owls' probabilities relative to the rest of the field. Coach Dunphy's team emerges as the strongest among the four. While Dayton might have the strongest probability of making it to the Finals (the Flyers' probabilities of beating Saint Joseph's is 72.9%). As Hawks' Coach Phil Martelli said in last night's post game press conference, "The Hawk never dies...we were just -- we were circling...And now we've been able to soar a bit", and it appears that Duquesne's team, eliminated 93-90 in overtime against Saint Joseph's, would have to agree. It will be interesting to see how the Flyers cope with this young, and becoming more confident with each game, squad.

The other semi-final, #3 seed Richmond versus #2 seed Temple will be a more traditional matchup. Temple won in Philadelphia during the season and Richmond's perimeter players, Justin Harper and Kevin Anderson, shot a combined 4-14 in their 55-45 win over Rhode Island Friday night. They will need to do better against Temple Saturday. Temple however, is not without problems of their own. Coach Dunphy lost two more players in the season's final weeks, Michael Eric is out for the season, and Scootie Randall is day-to-day with a foot problem. Dunphy did not need the junior as the Owls beat cross town rival La Salle by 20, 96-76, on Friday night. The Owls, who played with a seven man rotation for much of the game, will need him soon.