According to Glockner...Villanova's Out of Conference Slate

What's In a Name?
Sport Illustrated columnist Andy Glockner joined a growing list of talkig heads who have come to dispise -- and publicly admonish offenders -- those BCS "powerhouses" who pad their win totals with out of conference cupcakes. Long a problem recognized by the NCAA come tournament selection time (whose 24 wins are "better"?) and fans who have to sit through a 21st century equivalent of Christians vs. Lions for nearly two monthes, the topic "Who Has the Softest Out of Conference Schedule?" has letely become a favorite preseason preview topic. While the Selection Committee uses RPI and SOS metrics to determine how challenged a particular team might have been during the season, Glockner puts together a quick list (sort of a "You know you've scheduled a cupcake if..." test) of names to be avoided when scheduling an opponent. According to Glockner, "...Generally speaking, your team has scheduled a too-easy home win if the opponent's name has:

1) Any type of punctuation mark (ampersand, apostrophe, hyphen, period)
2) Any in-state directional notation
3) Any State that is not actually named for a state
4) Any name of a religion in it
5) Any affiliation with the SWAC, which is 2-213 over the past six seasons vs. teams in BCS conferences...(and the MEAC corollary mentioned later in his article

While Glockner takes Cincinnati and Louisville to task and gives Syracuse and Connecticut (dis)Honorable Mentions, he passes on Villanova. The Nova Nation is notorious for giving the program a hard time about the Wildcats' OOC, but how does Villanova's schedule stand up to the "Glockner Test"?

The 'Cats Score...
Big 5 opponent Saint Joseph's makes the list due to their apostrophe, though truth be told the Hawks should be better this season than their 11-22 record from 2011. Villanova will travel to the Hagan rather than the Palestra, for this game, removing any "location" advantage the 'Cats might have expected. Villanova's first round opponent in the 76 Classic, UC Riverside qualifies under Rule #2 (directional notation, in this case "Riverside"). The balance of the 76 field (no team ranked in the top 25 RPI from 2011, four teams #36-#82 in 2011, three teams ranked #125-#175 in 2011) is a bit underwhelming as well, but given the loss of seniors Fisher, Stokes and Pena, the remaining six opponents in the field are hardly pushovers for this season's squad. But UC Riverside, ranked at #259 in 2011 (RPI) is clearly the lowest seed in the field. Other possible qualifiers include American. Though the Eagles were ranked (a not too shabby) #127 last season, would being named after a country (a people?) qualify under #3? Probably not. Some Nova fans might wonder if Temple is named after a religion (rule #4). I am going to go with a No on that, especially since the Owls are one of the teams favored to win the Atlantic-10 Conference this season and went to the NCAAs in 2011 (and advanced farther in the field than the Wildcats).

Glockner's Score...
With an apostrophe school (that they take on the road) coupled with an assigned "directional" opponent, Villanova's OOC would seem to relatively cupcake-free. Long time Big 5 fans know that the 'Cats have had their way lately with La Salle and Penn, and that the presence of Boston University on the schedule was a nod to since-departed former Assistant Coach Pat Chambers (look for Penn State next season?), but those three, along with Temple and Saint Joseph's, were scheduled for reasons not related to roughage (traditions and Villanova family ties, etc.). Given the Wildcats return 44% of the minutes and 43% of the points scored from 2011, the slate of OOC opponents assembled will most likely yield two -- probably more -- losses going into conference play.

Coaching Carousal: Part 2011-04: Effects, Hits, Misses & Numbers

Effects -- Butterfly, Ripple or Domino?
When Villanova's Assistant Coach Chris Walker accepted a similar position on Billy Gillispie's Texas Tech staff back in April (announced formally only last week) Villanova Coach Jay Wright seized the opportunity to reorganize his staff. Though the process took just under two months and affected three coaches and two positions, Coach Wright's first step, completed in just over two weeks brought Navy Head Coach Billy Lange back to the Mainline as an Associate Head Coach. Lange, in his second stint on Coach Wright's staff, has taken an increasingly well-traveled road of head coach in a non-BCS program to assistant in a BCS program, the second to do so this off season alone. Lange's exit triggered a three job shift among D1 head coaching positions Villanova (Assoc. HC) <-- (Lange) Navy (HC) <-- (DeChellis) Penn State (HC) <-- (Chambers)Boston University (HC) <-- ?. The shift was unusual for the timing, coming so late in the cycle, but even more so for the number of head coaching positions opened, initiated by a head coach-to-assistant shift. Last season the Patriot League was ranked 24th of 32 D1 conferences by by Ken Pomeroy, the level where one would expect a coach to be named from a pool of assistant/associate coaches, rather than BCS-level head coaches. The circumstances of DeChellis' situation in Happy Valley played a large role in his decision to take a pay cut and change jobs. Clearly this was not the Butterfly Effect at work. Juwan Staten was slated to transfer from Dayton to Penn State prior to DeChellis' move, but instead signed with West Virginia, is an example of the Butterfly Effect (especially if he hits a shot that eliminates Villanova from the 2013 BET for example). The quick movement diagram (above) illustrates the moves as a chain reaction that typifies the Domino Effect, but given the number of coaches associated with the Philadelphia coaching fraternity, I would also suggest there was a Ripple Effect involved. Would Pat Chambers considered a BCS-level job this late in the cycle had it been located in Washington state? Would Penn State have looked at Chambers if Happy Valley were located in upper Minnesota? The influence exerted by the six D1 coaches coaches at Philadelphia schools (Drexel, La Salle, Penn, Saint Joseph's, Temple and Villanova) extends beyond the Delaware Valley and the state of Pennsylvania (to Madison, Wisconsin actually).

Hits & Misses?
The ACC saw an unusually high (four) number of vacancies this off season, 50% of the attrition can be attributed to terminations at Georgia Tech (Paul Hewitt) and North Carolina State (Sidney Lowe). Both coaches were on the hot seat going into the 2011 season. Interestingly, feedback about Paul Hewitt's and Sidney Lowe's replacements (Brian Gregory and Mark Gottfried repsectively) is (charitably at best) mixed. By general knowledge, Georgia Tech, with a large buyout on Hewitt's contract and huge capital expenses (facilities related) looming, may have been reluctant to go after a namebrand coach. North Carolina State AD Debbie Yow apparently believed a whispering campaign limited her pool of available replacements after she fired five year veteran Sidney Lowe, making Mark Gottfried, himself fired (in mid-season no less) from his last job (Alabama), the most attractive of the available candidates. She seemed to conveniently forget that the Wolfpack faithful practically ran off Lowe's predessessor Herb Sendak, and after a very public search marked by an embarrassing series of courtships and rejections, then AD Lee Fowler settled on Sidney Lowe, an NCSU graduate who was unable to translate consistently good recruiting into an NCAA bid in any of his five seasons at State. Sendak, with less attractive recruits, managed an NCAA bid in each of his last five seasons in Raleigh. Do the numbers support or contradict media perceptions that Gregory and Gottfried were basically misses? I dusted off Dan Hanner's Average Efficiency Margin method to compare the ex-coach and his successor...

	Average Adj.
Coach/Team/Yr	Offense	Defense	Diff.
P. Hewitt, Ga Tech/2004-2011	109.1	91.4	+17.7
B. Gregory, Dayton/2004-2011	104.7	94.7	+10.0

Those seeking an explanation for Tech's selection of Gregory -- beyond expense -- cannot look to an efficiency margin better than Hewitt's. Though Dayton's ex-coach boasts a positive double digit margin through his last seven seasons, it is well off (see above) Paul Hewitt's efficiency margin (in fact Hewitt's efficiency margin was better -- by 8.4 points per 100 possessions -- than Jim Larranaga, the GMU Coach whose move to Miami created the opening at George Mason). Fans at both Georgia Tech and Dayton shared a similar view of their respective former coaches -- good recruiters who seemed to do less with more. Hopefully each will find greater acceptance (and success) at their next stop.

Though Coach Gottfried had a ten year run in Tuscaloosa, Ken Pomeroy provides data for only six of those years (2003-08). I decided to compare the last five years of Lowe's and Gottfried's tenure at their respective schools. Though Lowe never made the NCAA tournament, Gottfried did in three of his last five years at Alabama (2003 -- Elite Eight, 2004 -- Round of 32, 2005 -- first round)...

	Average Adj.
Coach/Team/Yr	Offense	Defense	Diff.
S. Lowe, NCSU/2007-11	109.7	98.1	+11.7
M. Gottfried, Alabama/2004-08	115.5	96.0	+19.5

Gottfried might be the D1 coaching equivalent of Wally Pipp. The Crimson Tide of 2007 and 2008 had slumped from the high-water mark of 2003, the circumstances of Gottfried's "resignation" and the enthrusiasm surrounding Anthony Grant's early success have certainly combined to allow the Crimson Tide faithful to quickly forget about Gottfried's accomplishments. Being the third of three schools in the Research Triangle will be a challenge, but the circumstances at North Carolina State (public institution, football-centric) are similar to those at Alabama. Gottfried should do well there.

Radford Selects Jones, Boston University is on the Clock...
Despite speculation that focused on several former head coaches, the search to replace Brad Greenburg at Radford University settled quickly on the usual suspects -- assistant coaches from higher-level conferences within the region. 27 days into the search, Athletic Director Robert Lineburg introduced Mike Jones, an assistant coach at Virginia Commonwealth University out of the Colonial Athletic Association (CAA) as Radford's sixth Division 1 men's basketball coach.

Despite assertions that Boston University's search for Chamber's replacement would only take days, the process is now two weeks old with interim head coach Brian Daly (Assistant Coach under Chambers), announced June 3, holding down the fort. The post-Chambers press announcement candidate pool was an eclectic mix of ex-head coaches (Al Skinner), high-ranking assistant/associate head coaches (Mike Jarvis II & Orlando Vandross -- both of whom deny being contacted for interviews -- along with media favorite Richard Pitino, son of Louisville head coach and former Terrier head coach, Rick Pitino) and local sports names (Walter McCarty, former Celtic & Louisville assistant coach & former BU player Scott Spinelli) among others. When BU Athletic Director Mike Lynch fired 15 year veteran Dennis Wolff in March of 2009 he hired a search firm and took just under a month (26 days) to select and deliver Pat Chambers. Lynch did not initiate the process this time, did not hire a search firm and named Daly very quickly when Chambers left. Given how late in the cycle the opening was created, I would not be surprised if Daly leads the Terriers through the next season with the interim label attached to his title. Nor would I be surprised if Lynch tabs a head coach in the next week or so. I would be surprised, given Boston University's competitive standing in the American East Conference, if Lynch names a replacement after the start of the July recruiting period.

By the Numbers...
A single vacancy has been created since the last Coaching Carousal post, a bit unusual for me to post so quickly. The Villanova connection was too tempting to pass on however. The ebb and flow to this point...

		Vacancies
Period	Date	No.	Pct.
Regular Season*	02/26/11	2	3.6%
Conf. Tourn.**	03/14/11	18	32.7%
NCAA Tourn.	04/07/11	23	41.8%
Spring Sign	05/18/11	9	16.4%
Post Spr. Sign	Today...	3	5.5%
n = 55

* Regular season ending was arbitrary; I used the start of the earliest conference tournaments to mark the transition from regular season to post season play.
** Selection Sunday, March 14 this year, marks the end of conference tournaments & the beginning of post season program evaluations.

Turnover peaked during the NCAA tournament, typical given that most vacancies are initiated by the employer and conference tournaments and the NCAAs (and NIT, CBI, CIT, etc) mark the end of the season for viturally all of the Division 1 programs. 55 vacancies mark 2011 as the third busiest since 2002. Projecting a few more openings is not unreasonable, though the vacancy will be created by exigent circumstances (coaches behaving badly for example), with the AD either conducting a very quick (days, not weeks) search or tabbing an interim. 57? 58? Stay tuned.

The 2010 NIT Tip-Off -- a Second Look

Mixing in Pomeroy
As ESPN and other media outlets were pushing the invitational tournament out the door last August I posted an overview and quick analysis of the NIT Tip-Off Tournament, Villanova's early season invitational tournament. In the past two weeks the first round matchups have been officially announced and additional statistical data has been developed (primarily by Ken Pomeroy & the folks at the Basketball Prospectus), so it seems appropriate to revisit the NIT field and review the pod matchups.

The Field -- a Quick Review
Recall the field, sorted by region, with the host team listed first as it appeared in my Auguat post:

(North) Villanova	Big East		(South) Tennessee	SEC
Boston University	Am. East		Arkansas State	Sun Belt
George Washington	A-10		Belmont	Atl. Sun
Marist	MAAC		Missouri State	MVC
(East) Wake Forest	ACC		(West) UCLA	Pac-10
Hampton	MEAC		Nevada	WAC
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA		Pacific	Big West
Winthrop	Big South		Pepperdine	WCC

My overview/analysis relied heavily on 2010 season-ending possession-based stats from Ken Pomeroy's web site. In the past week (or so) the Basketball Prospectus has published it's preview for the season, a work that provides a preview for all 345 D1 teams. Ken Pomeroy has also released his Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) and project "starting" offensive and defensive efficiencies for every team in D1. So, armed with new numbers, it is time to take another look at the field.

For each pod site, I have given the revised possession-based information for each team.

The East Region
The NIT folks locked up the pod hosts over a year ago. I have to think this would have made more sense for the 2012 or 2013 tournament, after Wake Forest's new head coach Jeff Bzdelik had time to settle in and assemble "his" team. The teams are paired according to their first round games (Wake vs Hamption and Virginia Commonwealth vs Winthrop)...

	2011 Projected
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
Wake Forest	70.1	104.2	98.3	0.6603
Hampton	66.7	90.1	99.4	0.2456
VCU	68.0	109.9	96.1	0.8234
Winthrop	65.2	93.5	99.3	0.3335

The preponderance of previews project a lower division ACC conference finish for the Deacons. While Wake Forest will take their first round game (versus Hampton) by a comfortable margin (according to Pomeroy -- and to a very high degree of confidence too), but they have to pray that Winthrop will upset Virginia Commonwealth, as a second round match-up with Shaka Smart's VCU squad is the upset special for this tournament. A "log5 take" on the second round match-up between the Deacons and Rams suggests a Rams win to a 70.6% certainty. While I did not factor for home court advantage, Joel Coliseum cannot match New Mexico's Pit for intimidation, and even the Pit would be hard pressed to overcome a 2-to-1 log5 winning margin. Yikes. The pod losers will be routed to a consolation bracket to be hosted at the campus of one of the losing schools. Maybe Wake will host one of the consolation sites.

West Region
UCLA's rebuilding job is apparent by the PWP (as computed by Pomeroy). Which (again) points to the problem of locking up the pod hosts a year or more in advance of the tournament...

	2011 Projected
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
UCLA	66.3	111.5	95.1	0.8617
Pepperdine	67.1	98.3	101.1	0.4474
Nevada	68.7	98.5	104.3	0.3405
Pacific	62.6	105.6	98.7	0.6846

I wrote in the August post that the pod scheduler would resist the temptation to schedule by name and match-up Nevada with UCLA in the first (rather than second) round. No one listens to me anyway. The Pacific-Nevada game should be pretty good, but the Wolfpack is much depleted, and though they are "officially" the #8 seed in the tournament field, they will not survive Pacific. This pod could be the second "most likely" second round upset in the tournament if it comes to a UCLA-Pacific match. Pacific is not favored (at this point -- that could change based on early games...), theirs and UCLA's PWPs hint at a close second round game with UCLA holding a 74.2% certainty of winning. Should seed holds through the first round however, UCLA has to be heavily favored to brush aside any challenge from the Wolfpack.

South Region
The revised numbers turned Tennessee's pod into the most challenging of the field, though the Vols remain the strong favorite...

	2010 Adjusted
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
Tennessee	68.3	110.4	90.9	0.9028
Belmont	69.3	105.0	96.7	0.7191
Missouri St.	65.5	109.2	96.4	0.8085
Arkansas St.	67.0	97.5	99.0	0.4571

I observed in August the Belmont-Missouri State game would most likely be the best of the tournament...in the first round anyway. Tennessee, it turns out, will face Belmont in the first round, while Missouri State drew Arkansas State. Both the Bears and Red Wolves return substantial percentages of their 2010 minutes and points, but Pomeroy calls the Missouri State-Arkansas State game for Missouri State (by 11 points) to an 84% "certainty" (that's pretty strong). Tennessee takes their game (according to the log5 forumula) game with Belmont (by 12 points) to a 87% certainty. I was a little surprised Coach Bruce Pearl did not take Arkansas State as their first round opponent, but Belmont will help the Vols' RPI more than Arkansas State. The second round game should go to the Vols also, with a log5 calculated certainty of 68.7% (cannot adjust until games are played), Wake-VCU aside, this is probably the most competitive second round game involving a pod host.

North Region
The games are scheduled for the Pavilion, a shame since they may have been able to sellout the Well Fargo Center (or whatever they are calling the Wach this season), but probably could not get the facility for two consecutive days...

	2010 Adjusted
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
Villanova	70.3	114.0	93.5	0.9079
Marist	65.9	94.0	104.3	0.2316
George Washington	67.0	102.2	97.2	0.6398
Boston University	68.3	103.0	99.9	0.5853

The first round match-ups will pit Villanova against Marist, with George Washington, the A-10's representative in this tournament, matched with Boston University. The Wildcats are favored (log5 formula) with a 98% certainty (a 25+ point margin), probably the most decisive first round in the tournament. The GW-BU game will be more competitive (probably the most competitive game of the first round), with Pomeroy (and log5) favoring George Washington by a point, at 56%. 56% is not quite toss-up territory, but very close as suggested by the computed one point margin. Should seed hold, expect Villanova and GWU will face off for the second round and pod win, with Villanova favored to an 84.3% certainty. That would be the least competitive second round game in the field.

The Semi-Finals and Beyond
The official bracket confirms the committee is looking for a Tennessee - Villanova final. Villanova was seeded #1 in the field, while Tennessee is seeded #2. Villanova will meet #4 seed UCLA while Tennessee drew #3 seed Wake Forest (hmmm). Virginia Commonwealth, should the Rams upset Wake, will draw Tennessee, which ought to be a good matchup for the favored Vols. Staying with Pomeroy's preseason PWP, Tennessee is projected to win with a confidence of 66.7%. Neutral site computations are a bit easier. Expect a last update with some log5 projections after the pod winners are settled.

Further Reading...
My August "Too Early" post.
The Official NIT Tip Off Site
Other Early Season Invitationals with teams, dates and sites. From CBS.

The 2010 NIT Tip-Off -- A Too Early Look at the Field

Filling Out the Field
News about early season invitationals for the 2011 season have been leaking out in dribs and drabs for the past two months. The NIT Tip Off, operated by the Metropolitan Intercollegiate Basketball Association, owners and operators of the post season NIT, was inaugurated in 1985 as a counter move to the dwindling prospects for post season event (and later purchased by the NCAA as part of the settlement of MIBA's anti-trust law suit against the NCAA). From the first season, the event attracted a field of the top schools, and continues to do so every season. A move to the pod schedule format a number of years ago gives the tournament's preliminary round(s) a look and feel similar to a number of TV and impresario backed events like the Paradise Jam, the Legends Classic among others. Like the Legends Classic, the preliminary rounds are hosted at four separate sites -- the four top seeds. Unlike the Legends however, the pod hosts, heavily favored by high-major status and home court advantage, must win in order to advance to the Championship rounds (semi and finals) in New York City. The pod hosts for this edition of the tournament are Villanova (North), Tennessee (South), Wake Forest (East) and UCLA (West). The pod rounds (the preliminary rounds) will match the host and three invited teams to two games at the host site. First round winners at each pod site will play a second round game to determine who advances to New York City for the semi-final round. The three teams at each site who do not advance to New York City will play two additional Consolation Round games at site of the three highest seeded teams.

The Field
Four of the six above the "Red Line" conferences, the ACC, Big East, Pac-10 and SEC, are represented and will host the four sites for the preliminary rounds. The 12 "visiting" teams are drawn from conferences generally local to each pod site. The field, sorted by region, with the host team listed first:

(North) Villanova	Big East		(South) Tennessee	SEC
Boston University	Am. East		Arkansas State	Sun Belt
George Washington	A-10		Belmont	Atl. Sun
Marist	MAAC		Missouri State	MVC
(East) Wake Forest	ACC		(West) UCLA	Pac-10
Hampton	MEAC		Nevada	WAC
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA		Pacific	Big West
Winthrop	Big South		Pepperdine	WCC

The teams are listed alphabetically within each region. The field definitely has a "bi-coastal" flavor, as the Big East, ACC and Pac-10 have many members located along the Atlantic and Pacific coastal region. Note however that the conference affiliation for each of the three "guests" in those three pods also have strong representation along the left and right coastlines. A product no doubt, related to the host sites. I wanted a bit more detail about the participants in each of the preliminary round sites, so tracked down RPI, won-loss records and returning minutes/points from the team sites, and some possession-based stats from Ken Pomeroy's web site. For each pod site, I have given the record information, followed by the possession-based information.

The East Region
The breakdown suggests this could be a very interesting mini-tournament. In the same way that throwing a party in the middle of a remodeling project is interesting...

	2010 Season			2011 Returning
	RPI	W	L	Mins.	Pts.
Wake Forest	39	19	10	32.9	34.1
Hampton	283	14	18	66.8	59.1
VCU	136	22	9	82.7	85.3
Winthrop	160	17	13	69.7	73.9

Pod hosting for a team with an RPI (2010) of #39 makes good sense. Looking no farther, one could tease out a seed arrangement that would have Wake Forest play Hampton and Virginia Commonwealth (VCU) play Winthrop (of the Big South Conference) in their first round game. Consider however that Wake hired Jeff Bzdelik barely four months ago, and the former Colorado (of the Big 12) coach has had to replace over 65% of his minutes and points from last season's squad. And wait, it gets worse...

	2010 Adjusted
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
Wake Forest	69.9	106.5	91.4	0.852
Hampton	67.5	94.3	99.2	0.358
VCU	68.9	113.5	96.1	0.870
Winthrop	65.4	89.5	95.7	0.316

Coach Bzdelik's Colorado struggled during his tenure, but pace and adjusted offensive efficiency were about the same as Wake's over the same period...but Wake Forest had a much better defense. VCU on the other hand appears to be in pretty good shape. I was a little surprised by the Rams' strong Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP), but the squad did win the post season CBI Tournament to close out the 2010 season. All things equal (while checking out Wake's and VCU's PWP), I would favor Wake by just under whatever they get for home court advantage. VCU's coach, Shaka Smart, however, enters his second season as head coach with over 80% of his squad's minutes and over 85% of their points coming back. Coach Bzdelik may not be able to run full practices with his squad until mid October, but I have to think he is breaking down VCU film now. This could be a very bumpy beginning to his tenure at Wake.

West Region
Like Wakes' Coach Bzdelik, UCLA's coach, Ben Howland, has something of a rebuilding job in 2011, so the timing for accepting an NIT Tip-Off hosting job is interesting...

	2010 Season			2011 Returning
	RPI	W	L	Mins.	Pts.
UCLA	137	14	18	53.4	52.3
Nevada	73	19	12	21.5	12.3
Pacific	128	20	11	66.4	70.5
Pepperdine	303	6	23	99.6	100.0

This region also looks like the host will attempt to entertain while undertaking an rebuilding project. Based on RPI alone, one would think the match-ups would be Nevada versus Pepperdine and UCLA versus Pacific in the first round. Since UCLA hosts however, they get to pick their cupcake, so I suspect the Bruins will take the Wave, while Nevada and Pacific play the under-card match. This West however, is almost as muddy as the East. Nevada may have the better RPI, but second year Coach David Carter faces a rebuilding job even more extensive as Wake's Coach Bzdelik. Presumptive top seed? No actually. In fact the Wolfpack may have a tough time getting by the Tigers in the first round (assuming they are matched with Pacific). Pacific, coached by 24 year veteran Bob Thomason (21 years at Pacific), returns nearly 2/3 of the Tigers' 2010 minutes and over 70% of their points.

	2010 Adjusted
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
UCLA	65.6	105.8	99.2	0.679
Nevada	70.0	111.4	101.3	0.749
Pacific	61.9	104.3	96.3	0.714
Pepperdine	66.7	95.0	109.3	0.167

Looking past the first round games, a Pacific--UCLA match-up would put two teams with very similar profiles head-to-head. They have similar offensive and defensive efficiencies (Pacific is actually a bit better). Coach Howland has no problem with a slightly lower possession rate, should Pacific control the tempo. And again, Pacific's Pythagorean Winning Percentage is higher than UCLA's. Should the Bruins and Tigers survive the first round, this second round match may come down to the Pauley Pavilion's intimidation factor. Will the Tigers be able to filter out the distractions and focus on the game? Pacific's Coach Thomason has a 15-9 record versus Nevada, a 5-2 record versus and incredibly, a 0-0 record versus UCLA.

South Region
Tennessee is probably in the best spot as one of the host sites...

	2010 Season			2011 Returning
	RPI	W	L	Mins.	Pts.
Tennessee	14	25	8	57.1	51.0
Arkansas St.	202	15	14	92.2	92.9
Belmont	135	19	12	80.9	76.6
Missouri St.	90	20	12	89.3	94.6

The RPI-based first round would most likely pit Tennessee against Arkansas State, and Missouri State against Belmont, with the winners -- Tennessee and Missouri State -- facing off for the trip to the Big Apple. The Vols return over half of their minutes (57.1%) and points (51.0%)...just barely, but how challenging, despite the high percentage of returning minutes and points, would either Belmont or Arkansas State be to either the SEC or the Missouri Valley school? As for the second round game, looking just at the table above, it would seem to be at least as competitive as either the East or West Region/pod. But looks can be deceiving...

	2010 Adjusted
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
Tennessee	68.7	108.9	88.5	0.916
Arkansas St.	67.5	97.7	100.5	0.420
Belmont	70.2	101.9	97.9	0.615
Missouri St.	65.5	110.8	98.7	0.792

On paper a first round match-up of Belmont and Missouri State may be the best of the three that would be played over the two days. Both return substantial portions of their squad's minutes and points. While pace can be overblown at times, the nearly five possession difference between the Missouri State and Belmont could be trouble. If Belmont is behind, the Bruins might chafe at the Bears' more deliberate pace. Or if the Bears are beind, they may struggle to stay with the Bruins. In either case, the Vols' pace falls between the Bruins and Bears, so the Vols should have little trouble adjusting if the other team controls the pace.

North Region
Many of the details are sketchy at this point. The dates for the preliminary rounds, and for Villanova, even the site -- will this be moved to the Wells Fargo (nee Wachovia) Center downtown, or will the 'Cats host this on campus at the Pavilion? The Wells Fargo Center would make sense...

	2010 Season			2011 Returning
	RPI	W	L	Mins.	Pts.
Villanova	11	25	8	66.0	62.5
Boston University	144	21	14	43.5	50.9
George Washington	148	16	15	75.3	70.9
Marist	334	1	29	93.9	97.0

Villanova has a connection to each of the other teams in the pod. Boston U Coach Patrick Chambers was an Associate Head Coach at Villanova just two seasons ago. The Terriers were a last minute addition to the Puerto Rico Tip-Off field last November. Though BU has a lot of minutes to replace from last season's squad, I doubt the Wildcats and Terriers will be matched in the first round. That first round opponent will most likely be the Red Foxes of Marist. Head Coach Chuck Martin did stints as an assistant for Bruiser Flint at Drexel, and at St. John's under (former) Coach Norm Roberts. Marist was the destination for former Villanova center Casiem Drummond, who later moved on to Georgetown College in Division 2. While some in the 'Nova Nation may not be happy about Marist's 334 RPI, with 92% of the Red Fox 2010 minutes returning, chances are good Marist will finish with a higher RPI this season.

	2010 Adjusted
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
Villanova	72.4	116.6	94.0	0.923
Boston University	71.2	104.0	97.4	0.679
George Washington	68.2	102.6	96.6	0.665
Marist	64.0	88.1	111.2	0.064

The first round match-ups here therefore, will most likely be Villanova and Marist, with George Washington, the A-10's representative in this tournament, matched with Boston University. Should seed hold, expect Villanova and GWU to face off for the second pod win. For the past three or so pre-seasons Villanova and George Washington have waived the second NCAA-sanctioned exhibition game in favor of an opportunity to conduct a closed scrimmage with each other. Coach Hobbs and Wright are extremely familiar with the other's personnel and style of play (and coaching). I suspect if the 'Cats (and Colonials) participate in a closed scrimmage this pre-season it will not be with each other.

The Semi-Finals and Beyond
I suspect, should the pod hosts' hold through the preliminary rounds, that Villanova and Tennessee will the match-up the NIT would want for the final. The semi-final then would match Villanova with either Wake Forest or UCLA, with Tennessee getting the other.

Further Reading...
The Official NIT Tip Off Site
The Tip-Off Brakets (.pdf format)
Other Early Season Invitationals with teams, dates and sites. From CBS.

Puerto Rico Tip Off -- What We Learned

PR Packing List...Sneakers? Check. Unis? Check. Basketballs? Check. Defense? Check. Offense? Offense?
I managed to catch the final of the Puerto Rico Tip Off on Sunday, the third time this season I have been able to catch a Villanova game. The competition, Mississippi, a more talented and athletic squad than the first two I saw (FDU and Penn), gave the Wildcats a more competitive game. I wanted to see the 'Cats play without Mouphtaou in the paint. I had broken down the box scores from the first two rounds and, absent Yarou, the numbers were not what I expected. The Villanova team that went to Philadelphia International was an offensive juggernaut, able to score outside and inside with ease. The defense was terrific, coming along well, but the squad's calling card was an offensive assault that threatened to score from (literally) anywhere on the court. The staff has an array of scorers who can pass it inside to the low post where any one of three players can finish, quick guards who can scrape by a high post screen and take it down the lane themselves, or a couple of artillery spotters whose range runs from the locker room door in. If Scottie's motor was still warming up, there were nine other players in the rotation who seemed not at all shy about taking the shot, and more often than not, able to finish the play.

According to KenPom & Oliver...
I compiled a "four factors" look at the field, as they performed in Puerto Rico. The data is sorted by won-loss record and then by efficiency difference (Defensive Rating subtracted from Offensive Rating).

		Offense					Defense					Eff.
	Pace	Rtg.	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTR	Rtg.	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FTR	Diff.
Villanova	75.7	96.5	43.2	23.1	39.8	54.7	88.5	45.1	24.0	24.3	48.8	8.0
Geo Tech	69.7	102.1	53.6	26.4	43.4	53.1	91.7	44.2	21.6	29.3	31.6	10.4
Mississippi	78.7	103.6	54.2	23.9	32.8	39.9	95.2	44.7	22.9	39.4	40.9	8.4
Kansas St.	71.7	110.0	51.0	19.9	40.4	72.0	107.5	53.1	21.4	31.0	52.7	2.5
Geo Mason	70.7	93.8	44.3	21.2	29.3	48.1	96.6	44.3	23.5	41.5	66.1	-2.8
Dayton	70.3	96.0	50.7	25.7	31.3	37.1	100.5	49.6	26.2	43.6	59.4	-4.5
Boston U.	72.7	95.1	39.7	19.1	29.4	58.2	106.5	52.3	18.3	31.1	55.9	-11.4
Indiana	75.3	90.2	43.1	21.5	31.9	42.5	100.8	46.5	22.9	38.2	50.2	-10.6
Average	73.1	98.4	47.5	22.6	34.8	50.7	98.4	47.5	22.6	34.8	50.7
Std Dev	3.0	6.0	5.2	2.5	5.2	10.6	6.2	3.4	2.1	6.4	10.0

For those curious about the stats used, check Ken Pomeroy's explanation. Since no team played even ½ of the field, and given early hour of the season, I am reluctant to use the weekend results to draw broad conclusions about what will happen in March (or February, or January, or...), but as a closed system & a twelve game sample played over a long weekend, I did find a few of the numbers and outcomes interesting.

Appearances Can Be Deceiving
Looking over the brackets when they were first announced, I thought Villanova's seed and draw looked a lot like the fuzzy end of a lollipop. George Mason is from the CAA, but the Patriots seemed to be a more difficult first round draw than Boston University, or even Indiana. Facing either Georgia Tech or Dayton in the 2nd round (win or lose) seemed to offer no reward for an upset in the other pairing. The opposite bracket teams however ended up with a better cumulative record (5-4 vs 4-5), Villanova's sweep, and Indiana's skid aside. The brackets split their 3rd round, crossover games(Villanova & Georgia Tech won, Dayton & Mason lost). Through the first two games of the season and a somewhat similar set of circumstances in 2008 (back court then instead of front court), it seemed Villanova had a scoring machine with certain defensive question marks. For those watching the games and breaking down the box scores though, the conclusion for this weekend is quite the opposite. Villanova took this tournament on the back of it's defense.

Virtually all four areas of Villanova's defense showed up last weekend. The Wildcats put up some very good shot defense numbers (eFG% under defense above) -- 3rd among the 8 teams and below the average for the tournament. Villanova forced turnovers (ranked 2nd in the field) while controlling the defensive boards. Their defensive rebounding was best in the field, and well above the average of the field. They did a credible job keeping their opponenets off of the free throw line, posting below the average numbers for free throw attempts per field goal attempts even as they were ranked 3rd in the field in that category. If the Wildcats did not win their George Mason game until their last possession, the Patriots had their worst rebounding day -- on both ends of the floor -- in 2010. Dayton may have been down 2 with less than 2 minutes to go, but the Flyers posted their worst shot conversion efficiency numbers of the tournament. And their rebounding, at both ends of the floor, was the also a team worst for the tournament -- by a large (7 - 10 points) margin. For Mississippi the story was much the same. The Rebs posted their worst turnover, shot conversion and offensive rebounding percentages of the tournament, indeed of the season.

Observations & Gross Generalizations
1. Georgia Tech's numbers coming out of the tournament are impressive, until you realize they posted 2/3s of those totals against George Mason and Boston University. The gaudiest of their numbers came compliments of a 22 point blowout of a Boston University team that was severely shot-challenged in that game. The Terrier's eFG% was 39.5, even as their offensive rebounding rate (OR%) was 21.8%, a very low rate indeed. Against the only experienced front court team they faced in the tournament, the Jackets' offensive only yielded 0.87 points per possession, despite strong offensive rebounding.
2. For newly minted head coach Pat Chambers and his Boston University squad, the tournament, despite the 1-2 finish, had some positive points. The Terriers dropped their opener to Kansas State by a respectable 10 points and beat high-major Indiana before being blown out (85-67) by Georgia Tech in the 5th place game. The Terriers are one of 3 teams expected to fight it out for the American East Conference bid to the NCAAs, and this tournament experience can only help.
3. Dayton has a lot of work to do, despite the lofty preseason reviews. The Flyers were a top 30 offensive rebounding and a top 75 defensive rebounding team last season, but were ineffective on the defensive boards in all three Puerto Rico games, and limited offensively in 2 of their 3 games. Dayton's defensive efficiency declined game-by-game through each round of the tournament, a troubling sign for Coach Gregory.
4. Indiana has a long way to go, despite strides by Coach Tom Crean in the off season. Crean is Indiana's 3rd head coach since Bob Knight's departure in 2000, each coaching turnover brings turmoil and distractions to the legendary program. While the Hoosiers were competitive their 2nd and 3rd round losses to Boston University (by 4 points) and George Mason (by 3 points), their 1st round blowout at the hands of Mississippi (18 points) suggests Coach Crean may have to recruit yet another outstanding class before the Hoosiers will have enough talent to turn the corner. This is supposed to be an up season for the Big Ten, so improvements may be unrecognized when the team record remains unchanged or only modestly changed from 2009.
5. The pace for the Villanova-Mississippi, at 85 possessions, was ridiculously high, exhibition-season high. Villanova has been playing games in the low-mid 70s, while the Rebels have been mid 70s into the low 80s. The game then, was played at Mississippi's pace. The Wildcats posted their best defensive "four factors" numbers of the tournament in that last game, especially heartening given Yarou's non-participation and uncertain medical status going forward. Despite having an incomplete rotation, and dealing with last minutes personnel changes, the squad responded well through the three games.

Puerto Rico Tip-Off Revisited -- 1st Round Games Announced

The organizers for the O'Reilly Auto Parts officially announced the 1st round game opponents and times, even as they posted a more detailed bracket (suitable for download). From the draw, it looks as if I was right on 3 of the 4 top seeds (and the top 2). Villanova (#1 seed), Kansas State (#2 seed) and Georgia Tech (I had the jackets as a #3, the organizers made them #4) were the good calls. The organizers opted for an all power conference upper bracket, giving the nod to the Rebels (Indiana would have been a hard stretch...), dropping consensus Top 25 (and A10 favorite?) Dayton to the #5 seed. The seeds then look like this:

Team	Seed
Villanova	1
Kansas State	2
Mississippi	3
Georgia Tech	4
Dayton	5
Indiana	6
Boston U	7
George Mason	8

The Big East designated again as the tournament host, so the Wildcats need pack only their home unis for the trip.

Puzzling that George Mason was chosen to play Villanova in the first round. Maybe there is some truth to rumors that Boston U and Villanova are negotiating a home game (for the Wildcats) for this season. There are still 2 TBD opponents in the Wildcat's 2009-10 schedule.

Coaching Carousal Part 3 -- 'Tis the Season...

As the three weeks between Thanksgiving and Christmas Eve witness the largest single period of retail sales, so the four weekends (plus) bookmarked by the end of conference tournaments (this week) and the National Championship Game (roughly 4 weekends and a day from now) will mark the largest upswing in turnovers ("resignation", "mutual agreement", "moving on", "more time with my loved ones" fired by any other name...) of D1 coaching jobs. If various mid-winter celebrations (Kwanzaa, Hanukkah, Christmas...) are the triggers for retail sales, so "Year-end Evaluations" that inevitably follow elimination from the post season tournament pool, combined with the little covered -- but nevertheless massive -- Job Fair that permeates the Final Four Weekend, have triggered this annual rite of early spring. The SEC for the second season running kicked off the turnover with 2 mid-season turnovers. Alabama's Mark Gottfried earned the dubious distinction of being this season's first D1 coach ousted, but thoughts that the economic downturn might limit the bleeding to a few southern land grant universities with, apparently fat wallets, were refuted yesterday when Boston University's Dennis Wolff, a 15 year veteran at BU who had compiled a 247-197 career record at the New England university, was, as reported by Hoops Weiss, dismissed Tuesday. Wolff's Terrier team finished 3rd in the American East Conference this season, compiling a 17-13 record in the process.

If the cyclical nature of D1 coaching turnovers, as described by Ken Pomeroy, holds (given the SEC mid-season dismissals, I have little hope that economics will play more than a marginal role in holding down the turnover rate...), this off season should see another decline in the number of coaching changes. Small consolation to Gottfried, Felton and Wolff.