Atlantic 10 Tournament Efficiencies

A Tournament Grows in Brooklyn
The first tournament championship at the Barclay's Center concluded on Sunday as Saint Louis beat Virginia Commonwealth 62-57 and led five A-10 teams (Butler, La Salle, Saint Louis, Temple and VCU) into the NCAA tournament. Five bids (more than the ACC, SEC or ?) matches the conference's all-time high from the 1997 and 1998 tournaments -- the hey days of John Calipari and John Chaney. The format used this season brought the top 12 conference teams to a neutral site (the Barclay's Center) for four days of basketball. Seeds #5 through #12 paired off Thursday, with winners facing seeds #1 through #4 in Friday's quarter-finals. The four survivors (Butler vs. Saint Louis and Massachusetts vs. Virginia Commonwealth) played Saturday with the winners playing the Finals on Sunday.

By the Numbers
I decided to plot the possessions and offensive/defensive efficiencies (points per possession) for the 12 teams:

		Points		Poss	Efficiecies
Team	Gms	For	Agst	Gme	Off	Def	Diff
Saint Louis	3	201	168	69	0.971	0.812	0.159
VCU	3	210	203	71	0.991	0.958	0.033
Butler	3	198	192	66	1.000	0.970	0.030
Massachusetts	3	218	217	73	0.995	0.991	0.005
Saint Joseph's	2	137	139	62	1.114	1.130	-0.016
Xavier	1	57	58	52	1.096	1.115	-0.019
George Washington	1	72	77	74	0.973	1.041	-0.068
Temple	1	74	79	70	1.057	1.129	-0.071
Richmond	1	63	68	57	1.105	1.193	-0.088
Charlotte	2	123	135	64	0.961	1.055	-0.094
Dayton	1	67	73	64	1.047	1.141	-0.094
La Salle	1	58	69	64	0.906	1.078	-0.172

The sample is far too small for conclusions, but there are a few things that jumped out:

1. Defense Prevailed -- the Billikens' offense was uneven and not partcularly efficient as they generated 1.04 points per possession versus Charlotte Friday and a low of 0.939 versus VCU on Sunday, but their defense was solid throughout the three game stretch. The same could be noted for VCU, Butler and Massachusetts, the four teams to advance to the semi-finals.
2. Butler showed some offense -- The Bulldogs had a shootout with Dayton on Thursday as both teams posted offensive efficiencies of 1.14 and 1.05 respectively (Dayton's offensive efficiency is Butler's defensive efficiency). Brad Stevens' squad lowered their defensive efficiency below the 1.00 mark in their next two games, though their offense declined slightly versus La Salle as well. Fatigue played a role perhaps, as their outing versus eventual winner Saint Louis saw the Bulldogs' productively crater at 0.800 points per possession, well below their two +1.0 outings. If Rotnei Clarke can get some rest between games and freshman Kellen Dunham has any gas left in the tank (and Andrew Smith can stay out of foul trouble and...) the Bulldogs are poised for a run to the second weekend (at least).
3. One game samples can't tell us much -- but La Salle's showing gives me pause. Temple, (NCAA) bid in hand ran into a very motivated Chaz Williams-led Massachusetts squad, but the Explorers served up a very uncompetitive offering versus a Butler squad that featured an overworked Rotnei Clarke. Dr. John Giannini's game plan may have been to run Clarke all over the arena, but after competing for the first half, La Salle seemed content to hang on the perimeter and chuck threes. The Explorers are, at best mediocre two point defenders, which may work to their advantage versus their first NCAA opponent, Boise State. Or it may not.
4. UMass' showing was strong if unsuccessful -- the Minutemen, especially senior guard Chaz Williams, were motivated to run the table and grab the A-10's automatic bid, but they clearly ran out of gas in their third game (in three days) versus VCU. Notable that they held the Rams to miserly 0.947 points per possession in a losing effort Saturday afternoon. After posting >1.0 points per possession against George Washington and Temple, coach Derek Kellogg's squad collapsed under VCU's pressure. If they can avoid a first round letdown in the NIT, UMass should be strong and experienced enough to duplicate their 2012 NIT run, get back to Madison Square Garden and allow Williams to close out his career on a winning note.

Dove Entrails & Tea Leaves -- Pythagoreas, Minutes and Points in the A-10

The Problem with Crystal Balls
As an expression (for the sake of clarety...), the process of determining how a team will do in the next season looks something like this...

How Team A will do this season = How Team A did last season - Team A players lost + Team A players gained + Team A intangibles

The Pythagorean Winning Percentage provides one of the best measures of how a team did in previous seasons. We can use a deductive approach to analyzing how the departed players will affect the next squad by looking at who is coming back, and what they bring. Incorporating new players into the mix is about the toughest part of the process...next to accurately assessing the impact of the intangibles of course. Taking a look at the first two elements (how Team A did and who Team A will bring back) is the start of the process, and once I have those two elements,it is easier to see how the last two could affect their performance and standing next season. Comparing each teams overall Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) against the average of the conference (about 54.5, the Atlantic 10 is a very good conference), then doing the same for returning minutes (based on rosters through early August) and plotting the differences to a grid provides a clear indication of where each team sits compared to the rest of the conference. I have been partial to returning minutes because I think it provides a good sense of the relative maturity of different squads, but returning points has value, and so I decided to plot a second grid with points in place of minutes, as those who check out the second chart below. Can points tell us something that minutes might not? Compare Xavier's position in the tables below...

The X-axis returning percentage of minutes (above) and returning percentage of points (below). PWP is the Y-axis. For the PWP/Returning Minutes chart above, the axis intersect at (54.5,66.4), while for the PWP/Returning Points chart below, the intersection is (54.5,66.7).

.

A quick look and the two seem to virtually identical. A closer look uncovers a few differences worth exploring.

No Surprises Here
Temple and (sometimes) Xavier plot to the (upper left) above average quadrant for returning points and for the Musketeers, just below the average line for minutes returned (> average PWP, < average returning minutes), but the Muskies jump above the X-axis (average of returning scoring) in the second table -- a quick visual on the "value of Tu Holloway". For the past three seasons these two programs have turned the A-10 regular season into a duet. Those concerned about the X-men's minutes (ie experience) next season can relax, the program has learned to level the year-to-year ebb and flow of talent through the judicious application of red shirts and transfer eligibility rules. Coach Mack has Brad Releford, a rising junior sniper, Justin Martin, a red shirt (partial qualifier) freshman and Travis Taylor (transfer from Monmouth University) in reserve from last season, ready to step into the rotation for 2012. And even as I write, Isaiah Philmore, a transfer from Towson, will practice this season and be ready to step in 2013. Excellent programs can do that.

Coach Dunphy has not established that cushion for his Owl program, but every season a rotations/role player seems to step up and have a great year. Juan Fernandez and Ryan Brooks blossomed in 2010, while Scootie Randall and Khalif Wyatt did the same in 2011.

Testing Common Wisdom
Mature/experienced teams improve over their prior performances. That saw will be tested in 2012 as 2011 bottom-dwellers Fordham and Charlotte return squads that lost a combined 25 games in conference competition last season. Charlotte's fall from grace in 2011 (the 49ers returned higher-than-average minutes from a squad that posted a greater-than-average PWP from 2010) can be attributed to the education of rookie coach Alan Major. The transition from assistant to head coach, especially when a change of program is part of the transiton, can be bumpy -- Dayton fans take note. Coach Major brings in a large class rookie this season, which may be counter productive when installing new offensive/defensive systems. Coach Tom Pecora's Fordham squad showed improvement in his first season at Rose Hill, but the squad needs an infusion of A-10 level talent to establish momentum. Will he find them among the six new faces (freshmen) coming in for 2012?

For Saint Louis, Saint Joseph's, George Washington and St. Bonaventure however, the old saw may work out in 2012. Coach Mark Schmidt put the Bonnies on an upward trajectry when he took over in 2008. A-10 Player of the Year candidate Andrew Nicholson is a major reason, but Coach Schmidt has surrounded him with solid talent. Coach Mike Lonergan's hire last April places George Washington in a position similar to Charlotte's in 2011; a new coach taking charge of an experienced squad. Having seven years at the helm of Vermont gives Coach Lonergan an advantage the Major did not have however. Early season games against Syracuse, Georgia, UAB and Kansas State should give fans a good idea of where the program stands going into conference play. Coach Phil Martelli brought in a consensus conference-best class in 2011. Better yet, the class appears to be headed back to Hawk Hill for 2012 along with most of the eligible returnees, which ought to break Saint Joseph's two year run of 20 game losing seasons. Coach Rick Majerus' four year tenure at Saint Louis has been marked with a revolving door roster and a badly timed setback in 2011. 2012 should mark a substantial turnaround for the Billikens as they return nearly all of their (young) 2011 roster and suspended clutch guard Kwamain Mitchell. Should Coach Majerus' health hold up, the Billikens should have a hand in the conference race in 2012 and beyond.

When anticipating who would plot to the (lower left) "below average" on both factors quadrant, I thought the two last place teams, Charlotte and Fordham would be the strongest candidates. Both, it turns out, return more than average for minutes and points next season. The teams that did plot to the lower left quadrant are La Salle and Massachusetts, the teams that finished #9 and #10 respectively in 2011 conference play. The Explorers had a good balance of senior leadership and young talent, but was plagued with inconsistent play throughout the season. Some changes to the roster (especially when the freshman backcourt rotation -- Tyreek Duren, Sam Mills and Cole Stefan stay for another season) may benefit La Salle's prospects in 2012 (not to mention Dr. Giannini's job security).

For UMass however, the problem is inherent to the Dribble Drive Motion offensive system implemented by Coach Derek Kellogg. The DDM relies on a dynamic lead guard to either score via penetration or (when the situation calls for it...) get the ball to someone who can. The system needs reliable secondary scorers who can catch and and penetrate or shoot from the outside (when needed) and athletic front court players who can rebound and put back should the shooter's attempt miss. If the squad (especially that lead guard) not recognize and exploit/convert the scoring opportunities, the principal ball handler becomes a volume scorer. Since Gary Forbes' senior season (2008 -- Travis Ford's last as Coach in Amherst), Kellogg's lead guards (Ricky Harris and Anthony Gurley) typically take 30% or more of the possessions and shots, but the offense does not convert those possessions efficiently enough to win consistently. The problem in 2011 is that the scoring alternatives, Jesse Morgan and Freddie Riley had lower offensive (points per possession) ratings than Gurley. Those two and Chaz Williams, a 5-9 Hofstra transfer, will be next up as lead guard/scorer in the system.

Programs versus Teams
2012 should provide an opportunity to see which Coach Chris Mooney has built at Richmond during his tenure. The Spiders graduated a substantial percentage of their scoring and minutes over the past two seasons, but have a deep roster from which to draw. If the rotation players step forward (as Justing Harper did in 2011), the team should not take a large step back from their performance over the past two seasons. Can the same be said for Duquesne and Rhode Island, two other programs that played to the conference tournament quarter finals in 2011? The Runnin' Rams' Coach Jim Baron has had to scramble the past few off seasons to fill out his roster. Though he had early commitments, all too often they did not make it to campus, and the Rhode Island mentor had to rummage through JUCO lists and AAU rosters going late into July. This past season the needs were identified, those expected to return -- Akeem Richmond excepted -- will and the signees are all coming in as well. Those stitched together rosters produced three consecutive post season runs, but Coach Baron has never had so small a returning nucleus to start the season. Though transfers Billy Baron (the coach's son) and Andre Malone won't be available until after the fall semester, early season games at Texas and with regional rivals Boston College and Providence might provide a hing about Rhode Island's fortunes in 2012. Duquesne's Coach Ron Everhart has adjusted his gameplan to exploit the advantages a smaller, more mobile squad can provide. The frantic pace (#13 in D1 per Ken Pomeroy) caught unsuspecting teams off guard which, enabled the Dukes to earn a bye bid to the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament and a post season spot in the CBI field in 2011. Coach Everhart will have a couple of taller players to replace Damian Saunders and Bill Clark, but will they be as efficient?

Caveat Emptor
Consider that...
1. The rosters are still taking shape. In the past week La Salle fans learned that South Carolina transfer Ramone Galloway was granted a waiver to play immediately (headline announcement on the front page of the team's web site), while (not publicly acknowledged...) rising sophomore Cole Stefan left the program and the school. Some schools (Rhode Island for example) tend to delay announcements on academic probation. And injuries can strain resources (see Xavier and Temple early in 2011) or derail a season (La Salle in 2010).
2. Fans may have their favorites for preseason Rookie of the Year, but predicting the impact of any freshman is tricky, involving both talent and opportunity...with a large helping of luck.
3. Of the last five new conference coaches, Xavier's Chris Mack (hard to believe he will enter his third year as a head coach in 2012) has had the easiest path -- credit the solid program he inherited when Sean Miller moved on to Arizona. What can the struggles of Tom Pecora, a successful veteran coach charged with rebuilding Fordham and Alan Major, an Ohio State Assistant Coach whose first bite at the head coaching apple came at Charlotte suggest to us about Archie Miller and Mike Lonergan's first season at Dayton and George Washington respectively? Miller takes over a light roster and has to find bodies just to cover the next season. Combined with his lack of head coaching experience the Flyers will most likely struggle to match 2011's 7-9 conference mark. Lonergan, an experienced hand at Vermont, steps into a deeper and stronger roster. How drastically he moves the squad to his offensive and defensive systems and how hard he pushes the current roster to get there will probably influence how enthusiastically the roster responds.

Wash, Rinse, Repeat (pt 2) -- The 2012 Atlantic-10 Home and Away Slate

Flipping 2011 Home/Away Opponents
In addition to carrying the mirror opponents (home/away series opponents) from 2011, the Atlantic-10 schedule maker reversed the venues for the single game opponents. Charlotte visited Duquesne, Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, Saint Louis and Temple in 2011. The 49ers will host those teams as single game opponents in 2012. Does this balance their schedule over the two season period? Remember that virtually no teams return their entire rosters season-over-season. The average of returning minutes in the A-10 next season (to this point) is about 66%.

Home & Away According to Pythagoreas & Seed...
I decided to take the average of the home and away Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) -- conference games only -- for each team's set of opponents. I excluded mirror opponents (covered in the previous post) for this the compilation to focus on those match-ups that would not allow a return engagement (in the 2012 regular season). I also took the average A-10 conference tournament seed for each set of opponents, to determine if each team was facing an "average" set of opponents in the home or away setting -- the conference has 14 members, the "average seed" is 7.5...

	Non-Mirror Opps.
	Home		Away
Team	PWP	Seed	PWP	Seed
Charlotte	0.522	4.9	0.358	7.8
Dayton	0.341	7.4	0.531	6.8
Duquesne	0.319	9.3	0.614	6.6
Fordham	0.438	6.5	0.587	6.8
George Washington	0.526	7.3	0.565	8.5
La Salle	0.436	6.8	0.488	7.1
Massachusetts	0.334	9.3	0.711	6.3
Rhode Island	0.555	7.8	0.546	8.4
Richmond	0.370	9.1	0.710	7.4
Saint Joseph's	0.236	8.8	0.691	4.6
St. Bonaventure	0.538	6.8	0.555	8.5
Saint. Louis	0.477	5.5	0.379	7.9
Temple	0.557	7.9	0.553	9.5
Xavier	0.497	8.0	0.500	9.0
Avg.	0.439	7.5	0.556	7.5
Std.	0.099	1.3	0.103	1.2

As the table suggests, there is a sharp contrast in the PWPs among visiting teams and hosts. George Washington, Rhode Island, St. Boanventure and Temple appear to have the strongest slate of non-mirror opponents, and Temple looks as if their slate of road opponents may be marginally easier than their slate of visitors (though the Owls did catch a huge break on their mirror opponents). Looking over the PWPs for road games, it appears that Massachusetts, Richmond and Saint Joseph's have their work cut out for them. For the Minutemen and Spiders, this could be problematic, as the UMass returns 60% of their 2011 scoring (points) and Coach Chris Mooney's squad returns just over 31% of theirs.
Different Strategies for Different Circumstances
A common wisdom approach to scheduling strategy might want to schedule the stronger opponents into the home arena, thereby using the home court advantage to maximum effect, while taking the weaker opponents on the opponents' home court with the notion they could be beaten in either location. For teams whose objective is to break out of the conference's lower division (or cellar...) however a counter intuitive strategy might be the better choice. Hosting weaker opponents would maximize the chances of winning conference games, while conceding the road loss to the conference's stronger teams. Very few coaches would embrace a strategy that concedes losses even before the season even starts, but as a practical approach to accumulating wins, programs like Charlotte and Fordham have few options, at least until they rebuild their programs. How do the non-mirror match-ups compare when looking at those two different approaches?

Looking for Wins...Any Wins
Rookie Coach Archie Miller may have caught a break from the schedule maker. Dayton graduated All Conference forward Chris Wright, while also losing freshmen Juwan Staten (West Virginia) and Brandon Spearman (Indian Hills CC) to transfer. The depleted Flyers return 58.4% of their minutes and 58% of their scoring. Drawing hosting duties for Charlotte, George Washington, La Salle, Massachusetts and Rhode Island without having to return the favor. Rhode Island at this point, is in line to return less than 25% of their 2011 minutes in 2012. Miller should be able to post a winning home record among these five opponents. The seed versus PWP spread for the opponents visiting the UD Arena in 2012 is interesting, about average for seed, but a comparatively low road PWP. The spread suggests those teams did not travel well in 2011.

Richmond, like Rhode Island, will have only 40% of 2011's minutes available going into 2012, a (mirrors excluded) home slate of Dayton, Fordham, La Salle (again!), Massachusetts (ditto!) and Temple should help build some confidence (and post wins) for the Spiders of tomorrow. Their (non-mirror) road slate however, should be a bit more challenging -- Duquesne, Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, Saint Louis and Xavier. Should Coach Mooney's squad post a winning record versus those five, Richmond will be in a good position for post season consideration.

Massachusetts slumped at the end of their 2011 conference schedule, dropping their last regular season game to winless (in conference play) Fordham and then losing their A-10 first round game to Dayton. Lining up Charlotte, Fordham, Saint Louis, St. Bonaventure and Xavier for home dates should help to establish a winning home record in conference play. True as visitors the Minutemen will be hard pressed to win more than one game from their road slate -- Dayton, Duquesne, George Washington, Richmond and Temple -- but if they hosted those five would they win more than (say...) two?

Fordham's home slate -- Charlotte, Dayton, George Washington, La Salle and Xavier -- should provide the Rams with a few more winning opportunities than their road slate -- Duquesne, Massachusetts, Richmond, Saint Joseph's and Saint Louis. Returning a nucleus of Chris Gaston, Branden Frazier and Alberto Estwick provides Coach Tom Pecora with an opportunity to up Fordham's conference win total in 2012.

Making a Statement
St. Bonaventure has bettered their conference record in each of Coach Mark Schmidt's four seasons, finishing in the upper division 2011. With Andrew Nicholson a rising senior in 2012, the future maybe now, and the Bonnies drew a fairly balanced (in a PWP sense...) slate of (non-mirror) home and away opponents. Assembling a winning record at both home and on the road against those opponents would certainly serve notice the Bonnies are back, and probably put them in the conversation for a post season bid, preferably to a tournament whose name starts with an "N".

On paper George Washington appears ready to shop for more permanent digs in the A-10's upper division. Next season's (non-mirror) home and away slate seems fairly balanced per the average PWP (and note the average seed is consistent with the PWP). The question is whether new Coach Mike Lonergan can motivate the squad to perform in the face of a challenging road slate.

Temple drew the only slate that would fit the bill for an elite team -- face better teams (Dayton, Duquesne, George Washington, Massachusetts and Xavier) at home, lesser teams (Charlotte, Rhode Island, Richmond, St. Bonaventure and Saint Louis) on the road. The seed versus PWP contrast for the road opponents suggests that lineup, like George Washington's, were stronger in front of the home crowd than on the road.

Counter Programming?
On the heels of an unexpectedly good (slump at season's end excepted) season, Duquesne would probably have been better served with a stronger slate of visiting teams than Fordham, La Salle, Massachusetts, Richmond and Saint Joseph's. While there may be a measure of home crowd entertainment value in running up the score on Fordham or Massachusetts, but wide margins may (again?) obscure weaknesses in the Duke program.

Xavier drew a surprisingly balanced slate of single game opponents for both home (Fordham, George Washington, La Salle, Massachusetts and Temple) and the road (Duquesne, Rhode Island, Richmond, Saint Joseph's and St. Bonaventure). Note the home slate has an average seed within the standard deviation, while the road slate seed is just below the range established by the standard deviation (suggesting the Musketeers' hosts are better at home than on the road).

Caveat Emptor
Consider that...
1. The rosters are still taking shape -- at this point it appears that Saint Louis will return 92.8% of their minutes from the 2011 season (plus Kwamain Michell). Last June the Billikens were projected to return 82.7% of their minutes, but only 54% were on the roster when the season started. There are a variety of reasons why players, post NBA draft deadline, do not return to school, and every Atlantic-10 team has lost experienced minutes in June and later in the off season.
2. Timing can make a difference -- Duquesne ran up an 8-0 record through the first half of their 2011 A-10 slate against teams that finished the season with a collective 50-78 (0.391) conference record. Only two of those teams (Temple and George Washington) finished on the upside of 0.500 in their conference games.
3. Coaching changes can affect team dynamics, or not -- Charlotte's Alan Major had a rough rookie season as head coach, while rookie head coach Chris Mack's Xavier squad won the Atlantic-10 regular season title in 2010. George Washington's Coach Lonergan has six years of experience directing Vermont's program (and seven directing D3 Catholic University) before taking over at George Washington; the Colonials should show improvement over their 2011 conference record (health providing...). Dayton's Archie Miller, a long-time assistant, but looking at his first season in charge of a Division 1 program, may have problems matching departed coach Brian Gregory's 7-9 record.

Wash, Rinse, Repeat -- The 2012 Atlantic-10 Conference Pairs

The Flip Side of 2011
Though at least one fan blog hinted at the pairings for the 2012 Atlantic-10 Conference regular season back on June 1, the conference did not officially release the pairings until June 6. Rather than build the conference mirror opponents and home/away games from scratch for 2012 (or roughly based on the 2011 conference results), the schedulemaker apparently decided to keep the 2011 mirror opponents and flip each team's 2011 home and away opponents for 2012 -- Saint Louis played Fordham, George Washington, Richmond, St. Bonaventure and Temple on the road in 2011, so they will host those teams at Chaifetz Arena in 2012. Was this a backhanded attempt at a balanced (over a two year period) schedule? For those interested in the complete listing, visit the Conference announcement here.

Fair and Balances?
I had noted last June when looking over the Atlantic-10 conference pairings that a balanced schedule may be only one of many objectives a conference schedulemaker may have satisfy...and a lower priority objective at that. Since the conference kept the same mirror opponents for 2012 as 2011 for each team, I decided to take the average of the conference Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) for each team's mirros and compare them. Mirror games constitute 37.5% of each team's 16 game schedule. These pairings can provide a team with a big advantage (or a huge challange)...

	Mirror Opponents
	PWP	Team
Charlotte	0.735	GWU, Rich, XU
St. Louis	0.726	Day, Duq, XU
Dayton	0.724	Duq, SLU, XU
Saint Joseph's	0.670	Mass, Rich, TU
Fordham	0.612	URI, Bonas, TU
La Salle	0.582	GWU, Mass, TU
Duquesne	0.475	Day, Bonas, SLU
St. Bonaventure	0.453	Duq, Ford, URI
George Washington	0.438	Char, LSU, Rich
Xavier	0.380	Char, Day, SLU
Massachusetts	0.353	LSU, URI, SJU
Rhode Island	0.308	Ford, Mass, Bonas
Richmond	0.305	Char, GWU, SJU
Temple	0.208	Ford, LSU, SJU
Avg.	0.498
Std. Dev..	0.171

"Protecting" a rival clearly still holds for the coming season, as Xavier and Dayton will renew their in state rivalry, Temple will face both Big 5 rivals (La Salle and Saint Joseph's), while Massachusetts and Rhode Island will extend their regional (New England) rivalry with another home & away series this season. Travel appears to have played a role as well, as Charlotte, Richmond and George Washington have all managed another season with mirror games. Television match-ups, Xavier/Dayton aside, appears to be a minor consideration. Looking at the average of the PWPs, it may seem the schedule maker created a "balanced" set of mirrors conference-wide, the standard deviation (and a visual inspection of the list highest to lowest) would strongly suggest otherwise.

Notes & Observations
A blend of regional rivals may help Charlotte's travel budget, but George Washington was stronger than anticipated last season, and with new coach Mike Lonergan at the helm in place of the departed Karl Hobbs combined with the return of well regarded (but red shirted last season) Lasan Kromah, the Colonials should be an even tougher challange in 2012. The Spiders lost Kevin Anderson and Justin Harper (and Dan Geriot), but Coach Chris Mooney has a deep squad at Richmond, which suggests the 49ers will again post a losing record in these six games.

Duquesne and Xavier account for Dayton's high PWP average for 2011, but Coach Rick Majerus returns over 90% of the minutes from the Bills' 2011 squad, and also bring back suspended Kwamain Mitchell, an All-Conference player in 2010. If Duquesne can regain their early 2011 momentum, Dayton may be hard pressed to come away from that six game set with even one win.
Xavier's mirrors seem to be a good balance of rivals and travel, but Saint Louis may be a tougher opponent this time around.

St. Bonaventure may benefit from a down year at Rhode Island and continued slow progress at Fordham. Like Xavier, the Bonnies appear to have drawn a traditional rivals schedule (Fordham and Duquesne) with travel (Rhode Island) as a consideration too. Coach Schmidt's squad went 4-2 against those three in 2011, and, given the 25% returning minutes at Kingston in 2012, may do even better in 2012.

Massachusetts, like St. Bonaventure, earned a 4-2 record against their mirror opponents in 2011, but if Saint Joseph's, the beneficiary of a an above average percentage of returning minutes (69%), improves as anticipated, Coach Derek Kellogg may be pressed to repeat that record in 2012. For a coach already feeling a bit of heat, that may well be the tipping point in his tenure.

Coach Jim Baron will see only 24% of his 2011 minutes return for 2012, so even with a rather light set of mirror opponents, the Runnin' Rams may take a step back from their 2011 3-3 mirror record.

Temple's 6-0 mirror record last season was due, in large measure, to the weakness of their three opponents who managed a collective 11-37 record in conference play last season. Collectively Fordham, La Salle and Saint Joseph's will absolutely improve their record next season, but expect Coach Fran Dunphy's squad to post another 6-0 record versus those three. That is a huge advantage when putting together a conference record.

On Second Thought -- Plotting Trendlines for Atlantic 10 Teams (pt 1)

Under Water...
After I worked through the Big East 2011 season, I wanted to employ 3rd order polynomial trendlines to look at the Atlantic 10 conference season. I wanted to see how the trend line patterns might be similar and disimilar for BCS and non-BCS conference. The quick report is that there is little-to-no difference. But there is a quirk or two which gives me pause to think. The conference standings/seeds for the Atlantic 10 Tournament:

	W	L	Pct.
Xavier	15	1	0.938
Temple	14	2	0.875
Richmond	13	3	0.813
Duquesne	10	6	0.625
George Washington	10	6	0.563
Rhode Island	9	7	0.611
St. Bonaventure	8	8	0.500
Dayton	7	9	0.438
Massachusetts	7	9	0.438
La Salle	6	10	0.375
St. Louis	6	10	0.375
Saint Joseph's	4	12	0.250
Charlotte	2	14	0.125
Fordham	1	15	0.063

I have highlighted the teams featured in this post. Following posts, one (or two perhaps) to examine the teams that showed slumps/surges through the conference season, and a last post that will examine those teams who clearly (from the trendlines...) dominated in conference play, will cover all 14 conference teams.

Fordham

The gap between defense and offense suggests the Rams have a long road ahead

The Rams finished the season on a high note, the first conference win in 31 tries (over two seasons), in Coach Tom Pecora's first season. The program however has quite a distance to travel to even ascend to the middle of the conference pack. Progress for the next season will still be taken in measured steps -- a two or three win conference season, and hopefully a far narrower gap between the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies. Though Fordham won it's last game of the conference season, thereby breaking their 31 game losing run in conference play, the offensive trendline suggests their offense stalled (and defense slipped) through the last 2-4 games of the season. Those losses came against other struggling/slumping conference members. The gap suggests what the rest of the conference knows, Fordham last season was simply not competitive. The coaching may have been more savvy, but until the staff can surround Brandon Frazier and Chris Gaston with a solid cast, the Rams will continue to struggle in conference play.

Charleston

Another rookie Coach...another rookie season

Rookie Coach Alan Major took a largely intact squad that came within 1-2 wins of a post season bid in 2010, and registered a net -9 wins in 2011, -7 in conference play. Despite promising out of conference wins versus Tennessee and at Georgia Tech (both of whom fired their coaches at the end of the season) the 49ers sustained an offensive/defensive gap through much of the conference season second only to Fordham. Interesting perhaps, but certainly not good news to the 49er Nation, is how the trendlines moved in the same direction -- though the offense showed improvement through the last quarter of the season, the defense underperformed at an alarming rate.

Saint Joseph's

An end of season rally...

The freshmen will become sophomores, but the direction of the offensive trendline of 2011, like the closing win-loss rally through the end of the season (2-1 in the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament -- not captured in the graph) suggest there is more than simply another season of experience to count on going into the 2012 season. The next task for the staff is the team defense, often the more difficult of the two parts of the game, to both teach and implement. If the trendlines suggest direction, the Hawks should be better in 2012.

Massachusetts

Curves in the same direction...all season long

Having multiple teams whose offensive efficiency trendline (raw or adjusted) that does not cross over their defensive efficiency trendline seems to be common, somewhere between one in four or one in five conference teams generate third order polynomial trendlines that show this behavior. The anomaly of the Minutemen is that the trendline belies their won-loss record -- 7-9 -- the type of record that would suggest a rally at some point in the season (beginning, middle, end?) that would allow the offensive efficiency trendline to cross the team's defensive efficiency trendline. Strange indeed that though Coach Derek Kellogg's squad was a mere -2 to the won-loss margin and they opened the season with a 5-2 record through seven games, the squad never logged more than two consecutive wins through the 16 game season, and lost their first two conference games by a combined margin of -45 points. Through the last nine conference games, Massachusetts recorded a 2-7 record that consisted of two losing streaks of three and four games each. I have not developed enough trendlines to determine how common the Massachusetts trend is among conferences, BCS and non-BCS alike, but I suspect it is relatively rare. The same direction of the trendlines suggest that though the Minutemen did win 43.8% of their games, the wins were neither dominant, nor strung together in a sustained run.

Atlantic 10 Tournament -- log5 Through the Quarter Finals

Two Rounds
A quick log5 calculation for the first round games Tuesday and the quarter finals on Friday...

	Pythag.	Prob. Thru
Team	Win %	Rnd 1	Quart.
Temple	0.8797		0.747
Xavier	0.8872		0.727
Duquesne	0.8322		0.715
Richmond	0.8483		0.603
George Washington	0.5479	0.664	0.130
Dayton	0.6475	0.670	0.127
Rhode Island	0.6182	0.503	0.113
St. Louis	0.6158	0.497	0.111
St. Bonaventure	0.5729	0.583	0.090
La Salle	0.4893	0.417	0.048
Saint Joseph's	0.3801	0.336	0.037
Massachusetts	0.4746	0.330	0.034

The value of a bye seed, any bye seed, is clear. Three extra days of rest, the decreased exposure to injury risk and the additional preparation time are all benefits from a season well-played. The probabilities for Temple, Xavier, Duquesne and Richmond provide a quantitative sense of the advantage. The probabilities for the semi-finals and finals will emphasize the built in advantages of the bye seeds.

Quick Thoughts
1. Though Richmond has the better Pythagorean Winning Percentage than Duquesne, the Spiders drew two of the tougher quarter final opponents, Rhode Island & St. Louis. The probability is based on the Pythagorean Winning Percentage, while the seed is determined by the conference won-loss record...and tie breakers.
2. Dayton, which travels to Massachusetts is the "upset special" of the first round. The caveat emptor however, is that while UMass has struggled lately, the Minutemen are riding a three game losing streak, the Flyers are also on a three game skid, and do not travel well (-0.047, ranked #9 in the conference) to boot. The pressure however, is on Dayton to make a run in the tournament, and the road starts at Massachusetts.
3. The Rhode Island - St. Louis first round game appears to be the "toss up special". The Runnin' Rams are on a two game slide (after a decent, 5-2 February), but the Billikens' net efficiency away from Chaifetz, -0.096, is worse than Dayton's, and Coach Rick Majerus' squad is ranked #339 out of 345 in experience, per Ken Pomeroy, another factor when assessing the Billikens' chances for getting to Atlantic City. St. Louis is six games under 0.500. Unless St. Louis runs the table in the conference tournament, their season ends with the next loss.

On Second Glance...
Ken Pomeroy over at the Basketball Prospectus has completed the brackets for the A-10 among others. Check it out if you have a chance. He apparently is planning to compute the log5 for a number of conference tournaments this week.

Returning Minutes and PWP -- the A-10 Going Into 2011

How Many Bids?
Though speculation at the midpoint of the Atlantic 10's 2010 regular conference season had as many as five, teams "in" or "right side of the bubble" for the NCAA Tournament, only three (Richmond, Temple and Xavier) were eventually invited. Seeded at #5 (Temple), #6 (Xavier) and #7 (Richmond), two of the three exited quickly, but Xavier did manage to go to the Sweet Sixteen where they bowed out to Kansas State after two overtimes. I developed an aerial that mapped the offensive and defensive efficiencies of the conference back in July which strongly suggested the conference had a number of very competitive teams last season. In addition to the three NCAA-bound teams, the conference also sent two to the NITs where Rhode Island ran to the semi-final round (eliminated by North Carolina) and Dayton won it all (beating North Carolina). Two were also invited to the CBI post season tournament, and ironically both were eliminated by the same VCU team that won the championship. George Washington was eliminated in the first round, while St. Louis eliminated three teams (Indiana State, Wisconsin-Green Bay and Princeton) before being eliminated by VCU in the championship series (0-2 in best of three). The aerial below maps returning minutes for the 2011 season each team's overall Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) as determined by their play throughout the season against the conference averages for both. The table below lists the schools alphabetically, with percentage of returning minutes and PWP, along with the difference between the school's percentages and the average for the conference.

	Pct. (n * 100)			Difference (n-Avg)
Team	Min.	PWP		Min.	PWP
Charlotte	72.7	70.7		+7.8	+3.3
Dayton	50.3	91.7		-14.6	+24.6
Duquesne	73.7	56.2		+8.8	-11.1
Fordham	53.2	14.0		-11.7	-53.3
George Washington	75.3	66.5		+10.4	-0.8
La Salle	49.9	52.2		-19.0	-15.1
Massachusetts	78.5	52.1		+13.6	-15.2
Rhode Island	60.7	82.6		-4.2	+15.2
Richmond	68.9	87.5		+4.0	+20.2
Saint Joseph's	53.5	49.4		-11.4	-18.3
St. Bonaventure	58.1	59.6		-6.8	-7.7
St. Louis	82.7	74.4		+17.8	+7.1
Temple	65.9	92.2		+1.0	+25.9
Xavier	69.3	93.7		+4.4	+26.4
Average	64.9	67.3
Std Dev	11.40	22.24

The Atlantic-10's conference-wide PWP average, 67.3, reflects a good out of conference winning percentage versus all opponents. The conference may schedule it's share of cupcakes, but with a conference representative in virtually every early season invitational tournament, not to mention annual home-away series with teams from most of the five "above the red line" conferences, the average PWP is a fair reflection of where the conference ranks in the D1 pecking order. As preparation for a longer look at the A-10's prospects going into the 2011 season, I decided to map each team's PWP and percentage of returning minutes into a scatter chart...

And judging from the distribution of the teams, I would suggest the answer to ESPN's lead-in question (rhetorical most likely, for the headlines) to their Summer Shootaround article (posed again above -- "How many bids?") is "At least as many as 2010, but if not more, then most certainly better seeds" -- if there are no surprises. The scatter chart shows five teams in to the upper right quadrant, where teams that return more than the conference average for minutes and had a higher than conference average PWP last season, are mapped. While the scatter chart is no guarantee of results (everyone still has to play the games, that's the fun of the season, right?), it is a visual that can provide a quantitative perspective as a counterpart to the flurry of predictions. In "above the Red Line" conference, teams in the upper right quadrant generally perform at or better than the previous season (conference record, rank), while teams in the lower left (returning minutes and last season's PWP less than the conference average, a double hit that suggests performance will lag) generally perform at or below their previous season's conference record/rank. The distribution also suggests competition in the Atlantic-10 will be tough next season as so many winning teams return large percentages of their playing time -- teams that won last season return players who know how to win. Questions of talent aside, that should indicate it will be even more difficult for freshmen-led teams to break through next season. There are a number of questions with particular programs...

About Charlotte
When a team that maps into the "Above Average" quadrant has a new coach, it almost always means their former coach moved on to (bigger and better...) things. Not so with the 49ers, who fired the winningest coach in their program's history and turn to a Thad Matta assistant coach to take up the program reins. The fan-base was supportive of AD Judy Rose's decision to terminate Bobby Lutz, and bring in Alan Major as his successor, a response that suggests the desire for change was widespread. That the program suffered no significant post succession transfer losses suggests the players are on board. If Bobby Lutz had moved on to another head coaching job (he landed on the Iowa State staff as an associate head coach, a situation that should benefit both Lutz and newbie Head Coach Fred Hoiberg) and Coach Major had head coaching experience (leading a winning program) before moving over to Charlotte, predicting good things for the 49ers in 2011 would be a no-brainer. As it is, arguments that Charlotte will finish in the A-10's upper division are persuasive. The key for Charlotte will be if Coach Major addresses the 49ers defense (their Achilles Heel last season), find a good successor to the point guard position and avoid the temptation to retool the offense (it was good in 2010).

Dayton & Rhode Island...Coming or Going?
Both teams performed well in the NIT, a tournament commonly believed to be a good stepping stone to the NCAA, especially for the teams that get to New York City. Both programs have, however, seen a good percentage of their rotation minutes (and points) move on. Rhode Island suffered a few disappointments on the recruiting trail, but Coach Jim Baron managed to recoup those losses with a number of mid and late summer recruits. While not a "returning Ram", Dan West does have a year of JUCO ball and should bring a few more points to the back court. Dayton faces a similar loss of (starting & rotation) minutes. Coach Gregory is known for his deep rotation, but having two stellar wings in Chris Johnson and Chris Wright, six additional returning squad members and an MVC transfer guard (Josh Parker from Drake) who practiced with the Flyers last season should make for a good bounce back. The Flyers have additional back court (where they lost quite a few minutes) in Juwan Staten, a freshman who, if recruiting gurus are correct, should be in the thick of the A-10 Rookie of the Year race this season (the Dagger Blog has a worthwhile interview with Staten, if you have the time).

The Situation in St. Louis
Most thought the Billikens dodged a bullet when local prosecutor Jennifer Joyce declined prosecution in a sexual assault case, but a University Judicial Committee has also heard the case and according to reports rendered a decision that the players have appealed. While details of the decision will not be announced until the players appeal has been adjudicated, rumors suggest that the Committee assessed a punishment that included a one year suspension, coupled with a ban from on-campus housing when the players return to school. A school suspension would render the players unavailable in 2011, a huge disruption to the Billiken program, which if true, would drop Coach Majerus' squad into the lower right quadrant with Dayton and Rhode Island.

Saint Joseph's Dream Class
Head Coach Phil Martelli brings the best incoming class of the conference to Hawk Hill this season. Will that group of freshmen be able to reverse the program's fortunes in 2011? They may well be, individually, better than the squad Coach Martelli put on the court last season, but with better competition the Hawks may be hard pressed to match their five conference win mark from 2010.

Observations...
...as I reviewed the table and chart a few points came to mind:
1. The standard deviation for returning minutes was just over 11%. The standard deviation for the PWP was nearly twice that of returning minutes, suggesting there is a rather large gap in the best and worst (as measured by PWP) in the conference. A quick check of the numbers shows that Fordham, at whose variance from the PWP average, -53.3, is more than twice the variance of Xavier's 23.4, the "best" PWP in the conference. Fordham, ranked #304 (out of 347 in Division 1) presents quite a challenge for new Head Coach Tom Pecora. These Rams went 0-16 last season, a mark Coach Pecora should be able to exceed. But Fordham will probably not be competitive for #13 place in the conference.
2. Although he has upped the Bonnies' number of conference wins each year of his tenure, if the conference is as tough as I expect next season, Coach Mark Schmidt may be hard pressed to improve that conference win total (7) in his fourth season in Olean.
3. Massachusetts and George Washington should be interesting conference story lines this season. Both return a lot of minutes in programs that have struggled of late. A more competitive conference race may mean neither team shows improvement in their respective conference won-loss records, though both could actually make progress. Crucial numbers to check would include efficiency differentials (offensive efficiency - defensive efficiency) per Ray Floriani's College Chalk Talk article about efficiency differentials. For the coaching staffs though, the statistic may be too esoteric for results-oriented Athletic Directors.
4. The conference returns an average of (about) 65% of their minutes in 2011, down very slightly from their 2010 returning minutes (about 67%). The standard deviation, at just over 11, was lower than 2010's 13, suggesting there is less variance going into 2011 than there was going into 2010.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Quarterfinals at the A10

by Ray Floriani

ATLANTIC CITY, NJ- Go with the favorites , The Atlantic Ten quarterfinals at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City saw three of the higher seeds move on to the semis. Fifth seed Rhode Island provided the only upset, a mild one, in the day/night action.

Quarterfinal Scores
Team	Score		Team	Score
Temple	69		St.Bonaventure	51
Rhode Island	63		St.Louis	47
Xavier	78		Dayton	73
Richmond	77		UMass	72

The game of the day was the 6:30 matchup between Dayton and Xavier. Two rivals in the conference post season tournament with Dayton fighting for it’s NCAA hopes, gave the potential for an intense ballgame. The pre-game buildup did not disappoint.

In a 75 possession game, the four factors:

			FTM
	ORtg	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Dayton	97	52	32	26	24
Xavier	104	45	66	41	24

Right from the tap this was a virtually frantic pace. Transition, three pointers, attacking the basket, physical play were the norm. Not a whole lot of half court sets , especially in the opening half. Dayton had a fifteen point lead with just under 12 minute to play. The Flyers could not hold off late charging Xavier , especially Terrell Holloway (22 points) and Jordan Crawford (20 points).

Offensive rebounding percentage told a significant story. In planning for this quarterfinal, Xavier coach Chris Mack emphasized rebounding as the priority. The Musketeers got the job done in resounding fashion.

The disparity in free throw rate can be attributed in part to Dayton’s late game fouling when they trailed and needed to get the ball back. A closer look can attribute part of that FT Rate advantage to the job Xavier did on the offensive glass. Second shots very often give better scoring opportunities and make the defense more susceptible to fouling. For the game Xavier shot better than Dayton from two point range. Xavier was 18 of 35 (51%) to Dayton’s 16 of 34 (47%). Again, offensive rebounding was a contributing factor.

Xavier's tempo-free grad assistants

Notes on the other contests. Richmond-UMass was a 71 possession game more to UMass’ liking. Richmond prevailed because they knocked down 11 treys (11-20) for a nice, 52% eFG percentage.

St. Louis had their 54 possession tempo, but Rhode Island did a great job on the defensive end. They forced the normally careful Billikens into a 24% Turnover rate and also enjoyed a marked 47-25 Offensive Rebounding percentage advantage.

Temple established a 56 possession tempo an was impressive in both phases of their offense. The Owls offensive efficiency was 127, the highest of any team in the quarterfinals, as Fran Dunphy’s club knocked down six treys and shot 60% (24 of 40) inside the arc.

Xavier is tempo free. Our press row seat behind the bench gave great close up insight. For the Dayton-Xavier game we were behind the Xavier bench. After each time out an assistant asked a quick question , of two young men seated behind us keeping charts, such as ‘how many post touches the last four minutes?’ Near the end of one time out I asked the two men if they were coaches. Turns out they are grad assistants and the one said, “we are breaking down offensive efficiency.” Naturally yours truly said it was thrilling to hear that. The legions of tempo free followers is growing.

“(Jordan) Crawford and (Terrell) Holloway made the plays we needed in the stretch.” - Xavier coach Chris Mack

“For 32 or so minutes we played pretty darn good. When we needed the key stops we didn’t get them.” - Dayton coach Brian Gregory.

Officials (Joe DeMayo center) confer
with coaches Brian Gregory of Dayton (L) and Xavier's Chris Mack (R) over a ruling

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Breaking Down Seton Hall vs Massachusetts

by Ray Floriani

NEWARK, NJ - Seton Hall improved to 7-0 with a resounding victory over UMass 86-68 at the Prudential Center. The loss dropped the Minutemen to 4-5. Even though the Hall lit the board up for nearly 90 points, the story of this game was defense. The first half numbers:

			Off.
	Score	Poss	Eff
UMass	19	39	49
Seton Hall	44	38	116

Seton Hall held UMass to 19% shooting from the floor including 0 for 12 from three. UMass did heat up in the second half, shooting 9 of 17 from three, but the issue was already well in hand with the Pirates enjoying leads, in the 20-30 point range. For the evening, it was an 80 possession game. No surprise as both clubs play in the 70s pace wise. The final efficiency saw Seton Hall with a comfortable 108-85 advantage The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG	FGA	OR%	TO%
UMass	35	20	38	20
Seton Hall	48	29	43	15

Ricky Harris and Anthony Gurley led UMass with 15 points each. The big story was the Hall’s Herb Pope. He spent the prior evening virtually up all night with an illness. By game day Pope was doubtful but after visiting the trainer started to feel a little better. Coach Bobby Gonzalez told Pope to raise his fist when he was tired and needed a substitution. The fist never raised as Pope played 32 minutes, leading all scorers with 22 points while adding 16 rebounds. The 6-8 sophomore even stepped out and hit 2-2 from three point range.

At this point the Hall is playing very well and will soon add Memphis transfer Jeff Robinson and reinstate Keon Lawrence. The area needing attention is free throw shooting. It was another subpar night from the line as the pirates shot 20 of 39. It didn’t make a difference last night but could in the one or two possession wars of the Big East.

"A lot of people talk about our non-conference schedule but we are doing what we should, score in the 80s and hold the opposition in the 60s." -- Seton Hall coach Bobby Gonzalez

"We want our big men involved. We had looks inside but just didn’t finish." -- UMass coach Derek Kellogg.

The Big East - A10 Challenge: Rhode Rage?

Dan Hanner, Georgetown graduate and resident of Minnesota authors the Yet Another Basketball Blog, a terrific source for information and analysis on D1 basketball. His December 14 post, "Early Season Cheat Sheet", takes stock of the 2007-08 season so far (he "Best Comeback" so far...to Villanova for the LSU game). Among the areas he highlights is the BCS - nonBCS matchups, and how they have played out to that point. While reading the section Mid Major Wins to Brag About, I could not help but notice the number of A10 - Big East games the A10 has taken this season. It reminded me of a post I wanted to develop about the large number of games the teams from the two conferences play against each other. Many, like Philadelphia's Big 5 series, which includes 3 A10 teams -- La Salle, St. Joseph's(PA) and Temple -- and Villanova from the Big East, are annual affairs whose histories stretch back decades (if not a century). While Hanner's list identified the A10 wins, it did not include all of the games teams from the two conferences have played to date. A complete list would include:

12/12 Cincinnati 59 Xavier 64 (R, -5)
12/23 DePaul 93 La Salle 88 (N, +5)
12/08 Louisville 65 Dayton 70 (H, -5)
11/11 Pittsburgh 69 St. Louis 58 (H, +11)
12/05 Pittsburgh 73 Duquesne 68 (A, +5)
12/29 Pittsburgh 55 Dayton 80 (A -25!)
11/15 Providence 66 Temple 64 (N, +2)
12/04 Providence 60 Rhode Island 77 (A, -17)
11/16 South Florida 67 Rhode Island 74 (H, -7)
11/13 Syracuse 72 St. Joseph's (PA) 69 (H, +3)
11/16 Syracuse 80 Fordham 63 (H, +17)
11/28 Syracuse 100 Massachusetts 107 (H, -7)
12/08 Syracuse 89 Rhode Island 91 (H, -2)
12/09 Villanova 101 Temple 93 (A, +8)
12/29 Villanova 71 La Salle 58 (H +13)
12/08 West Virginia 92 Duquesne 68 (H +24)

Which puts this "challenge" at 9-7 Big East. Individual records:

Team	W	L
Cincinnati	0	1
DePaul	1	0
Louisville	0	1
Pittsburgh	2	1
Providence	1	1
South Florida	0	1
Syracuse	2	2
Villanova	2	0
West Virginia	1	0

The Rhode Island Rams and Dayton Flyers are this year's giant killers, while the Big 5 contingent appears to be really struggling (currently 0-5). As for the traditional rivalries, Pittsburgh is the dominant team in Western Pennsylvania while Villanova would take their 3^rd straight Big 5 title should they defeat St. Joseph's(PA) in February. Should Georgetown beat the "other Rams" (Fordham) today (the Hoyas are well ahead in the second half), the Big East is guaranteed to maintain the upper hand this season. [Note -- the Hoyas did defeat the Rams 82-55, +27] The complete record for the A10 teams:

Team	W	L
Dayton	2	0
Duquesne	0	2
Fordham	0	1
La Salle	0	2
Massachusetts	1	0
Rhode Island	3	0
St. Louis	0	1
St. Joseph's(PA)	0	1
Temple	0	2
Xavier	1	0

Still to play...
12/31 Georgetown -- Fordham (H)
02/04 Villanova -- St. Joseph's(PA) (A)