Coaching Carousal Part 2012-01: The Pendulum Swings Back

Trickle Down?
Not one of the six coaches released/replaced during the regular season (defined here as 10/15/2011 through 2/29/2012) coached in the power conferences, a sharp break with the trend dating to 2007 (and earlier?). Of the six who were replaced, all but the first (Northern Arizona's Mike Adras resigned unexpectedly on December 9 during an NCAA probe of possible program violations) appeared to be at the overt initiative of the administration, with losing records and flagging fan interest cited as the catalysts for change. Those who lament the path taken by the mid/low majors of the Division I basketball world should at least acknowledge that those programs are subject to the same pressures (revenue, TV exposure, fan/alumni pressure to compete...) as the power conference programs. Adopting the same course of action as step #1 to remediate and set a new course should come as no surprise. The break in the high-to-mid pattern comes at the end of the season. Given the damage to the brand sustained with an embarrassing mid-year termination, high major programs often look outside of the institution for a prestige hire to repair that damage. Nonpower conference program ADs tend to evaluate the progress made during the season and in a number of cases promote the interim selection (almost always an assistant coach) who engineered the recovery. Of the six individuals who stepped in as interim hires last season, three were promoted to the first chair while two others hired someone outside of the program. Northern Arizona has yet to resolve Dave Brown's status, but it seems likely at this point that the Lumberjacks will open Fall Practice 2012 with a new head coach hired outside of the program.

Winning Isn't Everything...Tickets Sales & Tournament Bids Are
That may sound crazy to the Arkansas-Pine Bluffs and Elons of the Division I world, but a 60.3% winning percentage was not good enough to save Doug Wojcik's job. Having logged a 140-92 record in seven seasons at Tulsa, Wojcik's teams had a series of badly timed losses combined with no NCAA bids (or CUSA championships) which convinced Tulsa AD Ross Parmley that it was time for a change. Fans, chastised by Wojcik more than once during his tenure, did not raise the hue and cry in the wake of his dismissal last March. Fan apathy and/or declines in ticket revenue/attendance were reasons cited in the dismissals of Mike Davis at UAB and Chris Lowery at Southern Illinois, though both had compiled winning records while heading up those programs. Unmet expectations, measured by NCAA bids, regression from prior (or historic) success or the even the team's conference record were variously cited in the dismissal announcements of Bruce Webber at Illinois, Doc Sadler at Nebraska and Ron Everhart at Duquesne.

An A-10 Digression
For Baron and Everhart in particular the fire/retain paradigm was more complicated than a single step-back season or year-end slump. Baron, a curmudgeonly 57 year old had clashed repeated with the Rhode Island fan-base during his 11 year tenure in Kingston, RI. A succession of late season collapses with no NCAA bid to show coupled with late off season recruiting sprees (always triggered when early recruits asked out of their LOIs in April or May) left a bitter taste for fans that even four consecutive 20 game winning seasons could not mask. The recession of 2008 worked in Baron's favor, placing enough pressure on Rhode Island's operating budget to discourage AD Thorr Bjorn from mounting an buyout initiative. Oddly, this season seemed to mark a turnaround in recruiting and Baron's efforts to put the program on the path to sustained success. The freshman class, recruited early, managed to get to campus intact and two very promising transfers, Andre Malone and Billy Baron (yes the coach's son) cleared the NCAA-mandated waiting period and joined the team late in December. Baron rekindled in season controversy by tossing senior guard Jamal Wilson, the team's leading scorer, off the team in late December even as the Runnin Rams were staggering to a horrific 1-11 start. The loss tally reached 23 as the season closed March 3. Eight years removed from a honeymoon with the Rhody fan-base, and with non-public money pledged to underwrite a buyout, Baron was released hours after Rhode Island's season-ending loss to Massachusetts.

Duquesne fans breathed a sigh of relief when Coach Ron Everhart pulled his name from the Penn State coaching search last May. Coming off a 19-13 season that included a post season turn in the CBI, fans expected a better outcome (despite the graduation of overachiever Damion Saunders) for the program than the 15-16 run in 2011-12. Everhart had his defenders, but the fan-base, possibly still digesting the bombshell that three sophomores, headlined by T.J. McConnell, intended to transfer, took Everhart's dismissal with relative calm. In an email to the Duquesne Board of Trustees AD Greg Amodio wrote

...We reached the conclusion that this kind of performance was impossible under his leadership due to uneven recruiting, large turnovers among his student athletes and coaching staff, an overall average win-loss record and a losing record in the A-10, poor performance in close games, the predictable collapse of our teams late in the season, and a general disorganization and lack of communication that is clear to those close to the program...

as the principal reasons for Everhart's dismissal. T.J. McConnell's transfer (he will go to Arizona) might have been a big blow to the continued success of the program, but of the 30 ball players (freshmen and transfers) recruited during the Everhart Era, fully 46.7% left the program before exhausting their eligibility, placing extraordinary pressure on the staff to rebuild the roster virtually every season. Everhart, who has won over 500 Division I games over an 18 year career that has included stops at McNeese State and Northeastern in addition to Duquesne, has developed a reputation for resurrecting down-and-out programs, and will no doubt land a job (much as Jim Baron has...) in this cycle.

By the Numbers
Mike Adras' resignation was the first of 36 openings in this cycle (to April 16). Look for 42-48 openings in this off season, which despite perceptions, is about average since 2007-08. Consistent with historic trends, the administration initiated 13 of the 16 openings (81.3%) created before Selection Sunday, an overwhelming number that dropped to seven of 16 openings (43.8%) created during the NCAA Tournament. The coaches have seized control of the process since Kentucky was crowned champion, creating four of the six (67.7%) post tournament openings. Expect that trend to continue through the Spring Signing Period (May 16 this season). Seven jobs (18.4% of the total made available -- if Rick Pitino's leak about son Richard's pending job at Florida International comes to pass) continue to be filled by interim coaches. Northern Arizona closed out the longest job hunt so far (125 days) on Thursday (4/12) when they hired Memphis Assistant Coach Jack Murphy. The Flagstaff, Arizona school went with a native son, as Murphy started as a student manager at Arizona under legendary coach Lute Olsen, filling a number of jobs in the Wildcat program over an eight year period before moving on as a scout for the Denver Nuggets and later an Assistant Coach under Josh Pastner (another former coach in the Arizona program) at Memphis.

Random Thoughts After First Friday

As I Was Scanning the Scoreboard, Twitter, Messageboards, etc
A progessional obligation kept me away from the TV set (ie ESPN) as Division I resumed with a vengance Friday night. Though the season "started" with a dribble of games -- mostly campus site games for early season invitational tournaments -- Friday brought a whopping 131 games. I have not checked to see if all those games involved two D I opponents, we can guess that nearly 246 of Division I's 348 teams (69.5%) saw action. After streaming the Villanova-Monmouth game (a 106-70 rout) I started a wider search for comments/scores. Sifting through the scoring summaries and catching a few tweets, I found a handful of games that caught my eye...

What a Difference a Year Makes (part 1)
Big 5 fans followed the progress of Saint Joseph's freshmen class from a very uneven start in 2010-11 to a brief florish close the season. Western Kentucky, a Sun Belt Conference power over the years, thumped the Hawks 98-70 to open last season at the Hagan. This season the Hawks opened in Western Kentucky and returned the favor as they beat the Hilltoppers by 11, 72-61 in Bowling Green, KY. Guards Carl Jones and Langston Galloway did their thing (16 and 19 points respectively with three assists and five steals), but not seeing sophomore forward Ron Roberts in the starting lineup was a bit surprising (Hofstra transfer Halil Kanacevic got the nod and logged eight minutes before fouling out). Roberts did get a 31 minute run, recording his first double-double of the season -- 10 points and 11 rebounds. The really good news was C. J. Aiken's 35 minutes. The 6-9 center blocked five shots, scored 12 points, and drew only three fouls. Coach Martelli's charges will see Georgia Tech Thursday night in the Charleston Classic. This will be a reunion of sorts, as the Yellow Jackets are now coached by former Dayton head coach Brian Gregory. It should be a great opportunity for the Hawks to draw some national attention.

Oops, Wrong First Impressions...
An extremely enthusiastic tweet from Chris DiSano of College ChalkTalk about Rhode Island's freshman forward Jon Holton (and a follow up about senior guard Jamal Wilson's awesome 38 point outburst) sent me on a search for the Rhodi-George Mason boxscore. The game went into overtime with the Runnin' Rams dropping a two point (90-92) decision on the road. My first check on possessions had the game (overtime included) at around 92 possessions. I was wrong (I'll blame the unofficial box score for that...yeah, that's the ticket, it was the unofficial box score...), the calculation from the official box score puts the possessions at 87...which means my first thought -- Rhode Island needs more offense -- was off base. The Runnin' Rams gave up 1.06 points per possession to the Patriots, and handed the CAA another win over the A-10 (a problem come Selection Sunday). Granted Coach Baron is going to have a reliable second and third option, Wilson is not going to shoot 13-22 (1-2, 12-20) to go with an 11-12 from the line every night, but he has options now in his front court with senior Orion Outerbridge and sophomore Nikola Malesevic if the two forwards can exercise better judgement on their three point attempts. Combined they hit 3-14 from beyond the arc (nine points on 14 attempts), while shooting a combined 4-8 inside (eight points on eight attempts). Wilson by the way, posted a 61.4% eFG with a 1.39 PPWS, both will be noted elsewhere when I file my first report. Holton will need to work on his shot (2-11 from the field, 7-10 from the line), but he will see minutes because he is a rebounding monster -- he snagged a stunning 34.7% of the available defensive rebounds when he was on the court. URI might be able to get a bit more offense when Auburn transfer Andre Malone and Virginia transfer Billy Baron become eligible late next month. For now Coach Baron may have to rely on freshman Mike Powell to handle the point guard duties. For Powell GMU was something of a baptism of fire as he shot an underwhelming 3-11 from the field while handing out six dimes (nearly negated by five turnovers).

Wow, What a Difference...(part 2)
Saint Louis fans suffered through a multitude of basketball-related problems in 2010-11. I wondered going into the season how the Billikens would react to the log jam in the back court and whether they would find an offense to go their their lock-down defense (the Billikens were ranked #47 by Ken Pomeroy last season). Majerus is not reputed to be an especially "user friendly" coach, so losing one or more of the freshmen back court players before the season started would not have been too surprising (sophomore Christian Salecich did transfer out during the summer). The Bills struggled against the Carleton Ravens on their Canadian Tour this summer, losing red shirt junior guard Kwamain Mitchell at the end of their fourth exhibition, not the best sign going into the fall semester. Friday night they demolished Tennessee State of the Ohio Valley Conference, 71-37 (yup, the defense is back) before 6,400+ fans at Chaifetz. My numbers (unadjusted) show a 61 possession game (typical of Majerus), which means the defense is in mid-season form -- they held Tennessee State to a measly 0.60 points per possession), but the offense is still a work in progress. Mitchell started and coupled a horrific 3-11 outing with 40% shot rate in his 27 minute (66.7% of the playing time) run. Mitchell will get better (or take a seat on the bench, Majerus is not the most patient coach) to be sure. Conklin, along with sophomores Mike McCall and Jordair Jett compensated with very efficient shooting nights (combined they went 10-15 from the field). Limiting a team to 37 points is impressive. Saint Louis is headed off to the 76 Classic later this month, with a matchup versus Villanova a distinct possibility.

Speaking of Defensive Showcases
Buzz Williams' Marquette squad shut down Mount St. Mary's Friday night too, handing the Mountaineers a 54 point loss (91-37) to open the season. The offensive/defensive display was impressive, as the two played for about 71 possessions, thereby scoring about 1.28 points per possession, while limiting Mount St. Mary's to 0.58 PPP. The starting five Jae Crowder, Chris Otule, Darius Johnson-Odom, Vander Blue and Junior Cadougan (note the three guards?) did a nice job of distributing shots and possessions, which reminded me a bit of the Syracuse team from 2010. Blue in particular struggled late last season, but had an efficient outing (a 62.5% eFG on 5-8 shooting from the field, which computes to a 1.25 PPWS). Cadougan struggled a bit with his shot (4-9, 44.4% eFG), but made his double-double the hard way, 10 points to go with 10 dimes in 24 minutes of play.

Amidst the Blowouts
The Big East finished off their eight opponents -- home games all -- Friday night by an average of 25.3 points. Two exceptions to the exhibition of BCS muscle-flexing came in Morgantown and Piscataway. True West Virginia led from the opening tip, but Coach Bob Huggins' squad had to withstand a furious closing rush by the Golden Eagles to perserve a 78-71 win. The Scarlet Knights, like West Virginia, broke on top early, but needed free throws at the end to hold off Big Green. Coach Mike Rice's squad struggled on offense, converting possessions-to-points at a 0.98 rate (about 62.7 possessions). The shot conversion (50.0% eFG%) was fine, but turnovers (a 25%+ rate) undermined the effort. A 40.9% assist rate was not especially impressive either. If this is a representative game (at least until the freshmen catch up), expect the front court, powered by junior Dane Miller and sophomore Gilvyda Baruta to provide the points. Among the freshmen two guards, Jerome Seagears and Eli Carter posted nine points apiece on relatively efficient shooting. West Virginia played a predictably high 73 possession game with seniors Kevin Jones and Darryl Bryant providing a good deal of the offense. Surprisingly the staff started freshman Jabari Hinds at the point, and the 5-11 spark plug did not disappoint, scoring nine points to go with five assists. Freshman forward Miles Keaton also got the starting nod (a message to Kevin Noreen?) and snagged two rebounds and five steals in 21 minutes of play.

Signs of the Off Season 2011-05 -- ESPN Feeds the Basketball Jones

Break Out Your Track Shoes, We Are Running a Marathon
Irene dominated the headlines going into the weekend, but thanks to the basketball-focused crew at Rush the Court, ESPN's Friday release of a preliminary Marathon Day lineup and schedule did not go completely unnoticed. The Marathon is scheduled for Tuesday November 15 and will include 19 NCAA Division 1 games (17 men and two women), to be broadcast over four outlets (ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN3.com and ESPNU), over (at least) a 25 hour period. In addition the World Wide Leader promises a one hour "College GameDay" to be broadcast at 6pm, as the teaser to the feature games, Duke vs. Michigan State (at 7pm) and Kentucky vs Kansas (at 9pm).

In keeping with the tradition, ESPN will kick off the basketball festival with a midnight game, this year's honors going to Washington State and Gonzaga (the second consecutive marathon in which a West Coast Conference team opens against a BCS conference team), which will be followed by eight consecutive games, all broadcast on ESPN and ESPN3.com. The games will suspend for the season's first "Game Day" feature. To capitalize on the prime time slots, the WWW will resume at 7:00pm with (at least) five more games distributed via their ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN3.com and ESPNU outlets, each to begin at the top of the hour. The action begins at midnight 11/15 with a PAC-12/WCC matchup on the West Coast. St. Mary's makes the marathon for the second consecutive year, though in a less desirable 2am slot, as the Gaels play Northern Iowa of the Missouri Valley Conference. The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors make their annual appearance at 4am when they host South Alabama of the Sun Belt Conference, before the coverage moves to the East Coast to pick up the Drexel (CAA) versus Rider (MAAC) game at 6am.

Winners & Losers
The womens' game is a big winner with two games carried on the secondary outlets in the late afternoon hours. Leading off the women's slate is a Louisville-Texas A&M game at 4pm, followed by the second game, which will overlap the Game Day feature on ESPN. The Tennessee-Miami game should draw a fair amount of attention, as Tennessee's Pat Summitt will coach her first regular season game on the heels of her diagnosis of early-onset Alzheimer’s disease.

ESPN-sponsored early season invitationals -- should be a big winner. ESPN has invested heavily in the November (Thanksgiving-based) early season invitational tournaments, and the preliminary (campus-based) rounds for those tournaments have been fodder for the marathon feeding frenzy, with a handful of made-for-tv matchups in the prime-time slots. While ESPN has often gone to the non-BCS conferences for opponents (versus BCS opponents) to fill the off-hours slots, this marathon seems to rely heavily on the ESPN-sponsored invitationals, as the network will showcase seven of the preliminary games in the CBE Classic, the NIT Tip-Off, EA Sports Maui Invitational and the Legends Classic. The NIT Tip-Off will show four games alone. Those early season invitationals should get a good deal of free publicity during the games. If that does not boost ticket sales, it will at least put those teams in front of the public and media. In addition to the invitationals, ESPN has also put together three made-for-tv matchups using State Farm as the sponsor.Those three games straddle the primetime viewing slots and feature perennial powers Duke, Florida, Kentucky and Kansas (men) along with Miami and Tennessee (women).

The BCS Conferences -- setting aside the women's games for a moment, the "conference count" based on ESPN's announcement...

Conference	No.	Teams
Big XII	4	Baylor, Kansas, Ok St., Texas
Pac-12	3	Cal. Stanford, Wash St.
ACC	2	Duke, Va. Tech
Big Ten	2	Mich. St., Ohio State
Big East	2	Syracuse, WVU
SEC	2	Florida, Kentucky
West Coast	2	Gonzaga, St. Mary's
Ohio Valley	2	Austin Peay, Morehead St.
Atlantic 10	1	Rhode Island
Mount. West	1	San Diego St.
Missouri Valley	1	No. Iowa
CUSA	1	Memphis
CAA	1	Drexel
West. Athl.	1	Hawaii
Sun Belt	1	So. Alabama
Atl. Sun	1	Belmont
Southern	1	Coll. of Charleston
MAAC	1	Rider
MAC	1	Kent St.
SWAC	1	Ark. Pine Bluff
TBDs	3	Opponents unannounced

If the Atlantic Coast Conference, the SEC (or the Big East for that matter) did not get many teams in the marathon, at least Duke pulled a prime-time slot on ESPN. Kentucky and Florida kick off in prime-time, with the Wildcats on ESPN and the Gators on ESPN2. Syracuse on the other hand will televise on ESPN3.com with an unannounced opponent and unknown time slot. Three opponents, all in the early season invitational field, were not announced Friday.

California, Tennessee & Kentucky -- California placed four teams in the marathon field while the Volunteer and Blue Grass states had three apiece. Of the other 47 states, Ohio and Washington supplied two teams apiece, while 28 states have no team in the field. Notable exclusions among the states...Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Wisconsin, Arizona and Maryland.

Northeastern Basketball -- appears to be one of the losers this time around. While the northeast pulled down the 6am slot again (Drexel at Rider -- will Ray Floriani be able to get to Rider that early?), the marathon moves south and west for the 8am and 10am games. Drexel is the only major city-based team in the northeast corredore (Boston-New York City-Philadelphia-Baltimore-Washington DC) to place a team in the marathon. Four northeast teams, Rider (6am versus Drexel), West Virginia (10am) Rhode Island (4pm from Texas) and Syracuse (TBD), in addition to Drexel, made the marathon field.

Dove Entrails & Tea Leaves -- Pythagoreas, Minutes and Points in the A-10

The Problem with Crystal Balls
As an expression (for the sake of clarety...), the process of determining how a team will do in the next season looks something like this...

How Team A will do this season = How Team A did last season - Team A players lost + Team A players gained + Team A intangibles

The Pythagorean Winning Percentage provides one of the best measures of how a team did in previous seasons. We can use a deductive approach to analyzing how the departed players will affect the next squad by looking at who is coming back, and what they bring. Incorporating new players into the mix is about the toughest part of the process...next to accurately assessing the impact of the intangibles of course. Taking a look at the first two elements (how Team A did and who Team A will bring back) is the start of the process, and once I have those two elements,it is easier to see how the last two could affect their performance and standing next season. Comparing each teams overall Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) against the average of the conference (about 54.5, the Atlantic 10 is a very good conference), then doing the same for returning minutes (based on rosters through early August) and plotting the differences to a grid provides a clear indication of where each team sits compared to the rest of the conference. I have been partial to returning minutes because I think it provides a good sense of the relative maturity of different squads, but returning points has value, and so I decided to plot a second grid with points in place of minutes, as those who check out the second chart below. Can points tell us something that minutes might not? Compare Xavier's position in the tables below...

The X-axis returning percentage of minutes (above) and returning percentage of points (below). PWP is the Y-axis. For the PWP/Returning Minutes chart above, the axis intersect at (54.5,66.4), while for the PWP/Returning Points chart below, the intersection is (54.5,66.7).

.

A quick look and the two seem to virtually identical. A closer look uncovers a few differences worth exploring.

No Surprises Here
Temple and (sometimes) Xavier plot to the (upper left) above average quadrant for returning points and for the Musketeers, just below the average line for minutes returned (> average PWP, < average returning minutes), but the Muskies jump above the X-axis (average of returning scoring) in the second table -- a quick visual on the "value of Tu Holloway". For the past three seasons these two programs have turned the A-10 regular season into a duet. Those concerned about the X-men's minutes (ie experience) next season can relax, the program has learned to level the year-to-year ebb and flow of talent through the judicious application of red shirts and transfer eligibility rules. Coach Mack has Brad Releford, a rising junior sniper, Justin Martin, a red shirt (partial qualifier) freshman and Travis Taylor (transfer from Monmouth University) in reserve from last season, ready to step into the rotation for 2012. And even as I write, Isaiah Philmore, a transfer from Towson, will practice this season and be ready to step in 2013. Excellent programs can do that.

Coach Dunphy has not established that cushion for his Owl program, but every season a rotations/role player seems to step up and have a great year. Juan Fernandez and Ryan Brooks blossomed in 2010, while Scootie Randall and Khalif Wyatt did the same in 2011.

Testing Common Wisdom
Mature/experienced teams improve over their prior performances. That saw will be tested in 2012 as 2011 bottom-dwellers Fordham and Charlotte return squads that lost a combined 25 games in conference competition last season. Charlotte's fall from grace in 2011 (the 49ers returned higher-than-average minutes from a squad that posted a greater-than-average PWP from 2010) can be attributed to the education of rookie coach Alan Major. The transition from assistant to head coach, especially when a change of program is part of the transiton, can be bumpy -- Dayton fans take note. Coach Major brings in a large class rookie this season, which may be counter productive when installing new offensive/defensive systems. Coach Tom Pecora's Fordham squad showed improvement in his first season at Rose Hill, but the squad needs an infusion of A-10 level talent to establish momentum. Will he find them among the six new faces (freshmen) coming in for 2012?

For Saint Louis, Saint Joseph's, George Washington and St. Bonaventure however, the old saw may work out in 2012. Coach Mark Schmidt put the Bonnies on an upward trajectry when he took over in 2008. A-10 Player of the Year candidate Andrew Nicholson is a major reason, but Coach Schmidt has surrounded him with solid talent. Coach Mike Lonergan's hire last April places George Washington in a position similar to Charlotte's in 2011; a new coach taking charge of an experienced squad. Having seven years at the helm of Vermont gives Coach Lonergan an advantage the Major did not have however. Early season games against Syracuse, Georgia, UAB and Kansas State should give fans a good idea of where the program stands going into conference play. Coach Phil Martelli brought in a consensus conference-best class in 2011. Better yet, the class appears to be headed back to Hawk Hill for 2012 along with most of the eligible returnees, which ought to break Saint Joseph's two year run of 20 game losing seasons. Coach Rick Majerus' four year tenure at Saint Louis has been marked with a revolving door roster and a badly timed setback in 2011. 2012 should mark a substantial turnaround for the Billikens as they return nearly all of their (young) 2011 roster and suspended clutch guard Kwamain Mitchell. Should Coach Majerus' health hold up, the Billikens should have a hand in the conference race in 2012 and beyond.

When anticipating who would plot to the (lower left) "below average" on both factors quadrant, I thought the two last place teams, Charlotte and Fordham would be the strongest candidates. Both, it turns out, return more than average for minutes and points next season. The teams that did plot to the lower left quadrant are La Salle and Massachusetts, the teams that finished #9 and #10 respectively in 2011 conference play. The Explorers had a good balance of senior leadership and young talent, but was plagued with inconsistent play throughout the season. Some changes to the roster (especially when the freshman backcourt rotation -- Tyreek Duren, Sam Mills and Cole Stefan stay for another season) may benefit La Salle's prospects in 2012 (not to mention Dr. Giannini's job security).

For UMass however, the problem is inherent to the Dribble Drive Motion offensive system implemented by Coach Derek Kellogg. The DDM relies on a dynamic lead guard to either score via penetration or (when the situation calls for it...) get the ball to someone who can. The system needs reliable secondary scorers who can catch and and penetrate or shoot from the outside (when needed) and athletic front court players who can rebound and put back should the shooter's attempt miss. If the squad (especially that lead guard) not recognize and exploit/convert the scoring opportunities, the principal ball handler becomes a volume scorer. Since Gary Forbes' senior season (2008 -- Travis Ford's last as Coach in Amherst), Kellogg's lead guards (Ricky Harris and Anthony Gurley) typically take 30% or more of the possessions and shots, but the offense does not convert those possessions efficiently enough to win consistently. The problem in 2011 is that the scoring alternatives, Jesse Morgan and Freddie Riley had lower offensive (points per possession) ratings than Gurley. Those two and Chaz Williams, a 5-9 Hofstra transfer, will be next up as lead guard/scorer in the system.

Programs versus Teams
2012 should provide an opportunity to see which Coach Chris Mooney has built at Richmond during his tenure. The Spiders graduated a substantial percentage of their scoring and minutes over the past two seasons, but have a deep roster from which to draw. If the rotation players step forward (as Justing Harper did in 2011), the team should not take a large step back from their performance over the past two seasons. Can the same be said for Duquesne and Rhode Island, two other programs that played to the conference tournament quarter finals in 2011? The Runnin' Rams' Coach Jim Baron has had to scramble the past few off seasons to fill out his roster. Though he had early commitments, all too often they did not make it to campus, and the Rhode Island mentor had to rummage through JUCO lists and AAU rosters going late into July. This past season the needs were identified, those expected to return -- Akeem Richmond excepted -- will and the signees are all coming in as well. Those stitched together rosters produced three consecutive post season runs, but Coach Baron has never had so small a returning nucleus to start the season. Though transfers Billy Baron (the coach's son) and Andre Malone won't be available until after the fall semester, early season games at Texas and with regional rivals Boston College and Providence might provide a hing about Rhode Island's fortunes in 2012. Duquesne's Coach Ron Everhart has adjusted his gameplan to exploit the advantages a smaller, more mobile squad can provide. The frantic pace (#13 in D1 per Ken Pomeroy) caught unsuspecting teams off guard which, enabled the Dukes to earn a bye bid to the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament and a post season spot in the CBI field in 2011. Coach Everhart will have a couple of taller players to replace Damian Saunders and Bill Clark, but will they be as efficient?

Caveat Emptor
Consider that...
1. The rosters are still taking shape. In the past week La Salle fans learned that South Carolina transfer Ramone Galloway was granted a waiver to play immediately (headline announcement on the front page of the team's web site), while (not publicly acknowledged...) rising sophomore Cole Stefan left the program and the school. Some schools (Rhode Island for example) tend to delay announcements on academic probation. And injuries can strain resources (see Xavier and Temple early in 2011) or derail a season (La Salle in 2010).
2. Fans may have their favorites for preseason Rookie of the Year, but predicting the impact of any freshman is tricky, involving both talent and opportunity...with a large helping of luck.
3. Of the last five new conference coaches, Xavier's Chris Mack (hard to believe he will enter his third year as a head coach in 2012) has had the easiest path -- credit the solid program he inherited when Sean Miller moved on to Arizona. What can the struggles of Tom Pecora, a successful veteran coach charged with rebuilding Fordham and Alan Major, an Ohio State Assistant Coach whose first bite at the head coaching apple came at Charlotte suggest to us about Archie Miller and Mike Lonergan's first season at Dayton and George Washington respectively? Miller takes over a light roster and has to find bodies just to cover the next season. Combined with his lack of head coaching experience the Flyers will most likely struggle to match 2011's 7-9 conference mark. Lonergan, an experienced hand at Vermont, steps into a deeper and stronger roster. How drastically he moves the squad to his offensive and defensive systems and how hard he pushes the current roster to get there will probably influence how enthusiastically the roster responds.

Wash, Rinse, Repeat (pt 2) -- The 2012 Atlantic-10 Home and Away Slate

Flipping 2011 Home/Away Opponents
In addition to carrying the mirror opponents (home/away series opponents) from 2011, the Atlantic-10 schedule maker reversed the venues for the single game opponents. Charlotte visited Duquesne, Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, Saint Louis and Temple in 2011. The 49ers will host those teams as single game opponents in 2012. Does this balance their schedule over the two season period? Remember that virtually no teams return their entire rosters season-over-season. The average of returning minutes in the A-10 next season (to this point) is about 66%.

Home & Away According to Pythagoreas & Seed...
I decided to take the average of the home and away Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) -- conference games only -- for each team's set of opponents. I excluded mirror opponents (covered in the previous post) for this the compilation to focus on those match-ups that would not allow a return engagement (in the 2012 regular season). I also took the average A-10 conference tournament seed for each set of opponents, to determine if each team was facing an "average" set of opponents in the home or away setting -- the conference has 14 members, the "average seed" is 7.5...

	Non-Mirror Opps.
	Home		Away
Team	PWP	Seed	PWP	Seed
Charlotte	0.522	4.9	0.358	7.8
Dayton	0.341	7.4	0.531	6.8
Duquesne	0.319	9.3	0.614	6.6
Fordham	0.438	6.5	0.587	6.8
George Washington	0.526	7.3	0.565	8.5
La Salle	0.436	6.8	0.488	7.1
Massachusetts	0.334	9.3	0.711	6.3
Rhode Island	0.555	7.8	0.546	8.4
Richmond	0.370	9.1	0.710	7.4
Saint Joseph's	0.236	8.8	0.691	4.6
St. Bonaventure	0.538	6.8	0.555	8.5
Saint. Louis	0.477	5.5	0.379	7.9
Temple	0.557	7.9	0.553	9.5
Xavier	0.497	8.0	0.500	9.0
Avg.	0.439	7.5	0.556	7.5
Std.	0.099	1.3	0.103	1.2

As the table suggests, there is a sharp contrast in the PWPs among visiting teams and hosts. George Washington, Rhode Island, St. Boanventure and Temple appear to have the strongest slate of non-mirror opponents, and Temple looks as if their slate of road opponents may be marginally easier than their slate of visitors (though the Owls did catch a huge break on their mirror opponents). Looking over the PWPs for road games, it appears that Massachusetts, Richmond and Saint Joseph's have their work cut out for them. For the Minutemen and Spiders, this could be problematic, as the UMass returns 60% of their 2011 scoring (points) and Coach Chris Mooney's squad returns just over 31% of theirs.
Different Strategies for Different Circumstances
A common wisdom approach to scheduling strategy might want to schedule the stronger opponents into the home arena, thereby using the home court advantage to maximum effect, while taking the weaker opponents on the opponents' home court with the notion they could be beaten in either location. For teams whose objective is to break out of the conference's lower division (or cellar...) however a counter intuitive strategy might be the better choice. Hosting weaker opponents would maximize the chances of winning conference games, while conceding the road loss to the conference's stronger teams. Very few coaches would embrace a strategy that concedes losses even before the season even starts, but as a practical approach to accumulating wins, programs like Charlotte and Fordham have few options, at least until they rebuild their programs. How do the non-mirror match-ups compare when looking at those two different approaches?

Looking for Wins...Any Wins
Rookie Coach Archie Miller may have caught a break from the schedule maker. Dayton graduated All Conference forward Chris Wright, while also losing freshmen Juwan Staten (West Virginia) and Brandon Spearman (Indian Hills CC) to transfer. The depleted Flyers return 58.4% of their minutes and 58% of their scoring. Drawing hosting duties for Charlotte, George Washington, La Salle, Massachusetts and Rhode Island without having to return the favor. Rhode Island at this point, is in line to return less than 25% of their 2011 minutes in 2012. Miller should be able to post a winning home record among these five opponents. The seed versus PWP spread for the opponents visiting the UD Arena in 2012 is interesting, about average for seed, but a comparatively low road PWP. The spread suggests those teams did not travel well in 2011.

Richmond, like Rhode Island, will have only 40% of 2011's minutes available going into 2012, a (mirrors excluded) home slate of Dayton, Fordham, La Salle (again!), Massachusetts (ditto!) and Temple should help build some confidence (and post wins) for the Spiders of tomorrow. Their (non-mirror) road slate however, should be a bit more challenging -- Duquesne, Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, Saint Louis and Xavier. Should Coach Mooney's squad post a winning record versus those five, Richmond will be in a good position for post season consideration.

Massachusetts slumped at the end of their 2011 conference schedule, dropping their last regular season game to winless (in conference play) Fordham and then losing their A-10 first round game to Dayton. Lining up Charlotte, Fordham, Saint Louis, St. Bonaventure and Xavier for home dates should help to establish a winning home record in conference play. True as visitors the Minutemen will be hard pressed to win more than one game from their road slate -- Dayton, Duquesne, George Washington, Richmond and Temple -- but if they hosted those five would they win more than (say...) two?

Fordham's home slate -- Charlotte, Dayton, George Washington, La Salle and Xavier -- should provide the Rams with a few more winning opportunities than their road slate -- Duquesne, Massachusetts, Richmond, Saint Joseph's and Saint Louis. Returning a nucleus of Chris Gaston, Branden Frazier and Alberto Estwick provides Coach Tom Pecora with an opportunity to up Fordham's conference win total in 2012.

Making a Statement
St. Bonaventure has bettered their conference record in each of Coach Mark Schmidt's four seasons, finishing in the upper division 2011. With Andrew Nicholson a rising senior in 2012, the future maybe now, and the Bonnies drew a fairly balanced (in a PWP sense...) slate of (non-mirror) home and away opponents. Assembling a winning record at both home and on the road against those opponents would certainly serve notice the Bonnies are back, and probably put them in the conversation for a post season bid, preferably to a tournament whose name starts with an "N".

On paper George Washington appears ready to shop for more permanent digs in the A-10's upper division. Next season's (non-mirror) home and away slate seems fairly balanced per the average PWP (and note the average seed is consistent with the PWP). The question is whether new Coach Mike Lonergan can motivate the squad to perform in the face of a challenging road slate.

Temple drew the only slate that would fit the bill for an elite team -- face better teams (Dayton, Duquesne, George Washington, Massachusetts and Xavier) at home, lesser teams (Charlotte, Rhode Island, Richmond, St. Bonaventure and Saint Louis) on the road. The seed versus PWP contrast for the road opponents suggests that lineup, like George Washington's, were stronger in front of the home crowd than on the road.

Counter Programming?
On the heels of an unexpectedly good (slump at season's end excepted) season, Duquesne would probably have been better served with a stronger slate of visiting teams than Fordham, La Salle, Massachusetts, Richmond and Saint Joseph's. While there may be a measure of home crowd entertainment value in running up the score on Fordham or Massachusetts, but wide margins may (again?) obscure weaknesses in the Duke program.

Xavier drew a surprisingly balanced slate of single game opponents for both home (Fordham, George Washington, La Salle, Massachusetts and Temple) and the road (Duquesne, Rhode Island, Richmond, Saint Joseph's and St. Bonaventure). Note the home slate has an average seed within the standard deviation, while the road slate seed is just below the range established by the standard deviation (suggesting the Musketeers' hosts are better at home than on the road).

Caveat Emptor
Consider that...
1. The rosters are still taking shape -- at this point it appears that Saint Louis will return 92.8% of their minutes from the 2011 season (plus Kwamain Michell). Last June the Billikens were projected to return 82.7% of their minutes, but only 54% were on the roster when the season started. There are a variety of reasons why players, post NBA draft deadline, do not return to school, and every Atlantic-10 team has lost experienced minutes in June and later in the off season.
2. Timing can make a difference -- Duquesne ran up an 8-0 record through the first half of their 2011 A-10 slate against teams that finished the season with a collective 50-78 (0.391) conference record. Only two of those teams (Temple and George Washington) finished on the upside of 0.500 in their conference games.
3. Coaching changes can affect team dynamics, or not -- Charlotte's Alan Major had a rough rookie season as head coach, while rookie head coach Chris Mack's Xavier squad won the Atlantic-10 regular season title in 2010. George Washington's Coach Lonergan has six years of experience directing Vermont's program (and seven directing D3 Catholic University) before taking over at George Washington; the Colonials should show improvement over their 2011 conference record (health providing...). Dayton's Archie Miller, a long-time assistant, but looking at his first season in charge of a Division 1 program, may have problems matching departed coach Brian Gregory's 7-9 record.

Wash, Rinse, Repeat -- The 2012 Atlantic-10 Conference Pairs

The Flip Side of 2011
Though at least one fan blog hinted at the pairings for the 2012 Atlantic-10 Conference regular season back on June 1, the conference did not officially release the pairings until June 6. Rather than build the conference mirror opponents and home/away games from scratch for 2012 (or roughly based on the 2011 conference results), the schedulemaker apparently decided to keep the 2011 mirror opponents and flip each team's 2011 home and away opponents for 2012 -- Saint Louis played Fordham, George Washington, Richmond, St. Bonaventure and Temple on the road in 2011, so they will host those teams at Chaifetz Arena in 2012. Was this a backhanded attempt at a balanced (over a two year period) schedule? For those interested in the complete listing, visit the Conference announcement here.

Fair and Balances?
I had noted last June when looking over the Atlantic-10 conference pairings that a balanced schedule may be only one of many objectives a conference schedulemaker may have satisfy...and a lower priority objective at that. Since the conference kept the same mirror opponents for 2012 as 2011 for each team, I decided to take the average of the conference Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) for each team's mirros and compare them. Mirror games constitute 37.5% of each team's 16 game schedule. These pairings can provide a team with a big advantage (or a huge challange)...

	Mirror Opponents
	PWP	Team
Charlotte	0.735	GWU, Rich, XU
St. Louis	0.726	Day, Duq, XU
Dayton	0.724	Duq, SLU, XU
Saint Joseph's	0.670	Mass, Rich, TU
Fordham	0.612	URI, Bonas, TU
La Salle	0.582	GWU, Mass, TU
Duquesne	0.475	Day, Bonas, SLU
St. Bonaventure	0.453	Duq, Ford, URI
George Washington	0.438	Char, LSU, Rich
Xavier	0.380	Char, Day, SLU
Massachusetts	0.353	LSU, URI, SJU
Rhode Island	0.308	Ford, Mass, Bonas
Richmond	0.305	Char, GWU, SJU
Temple	0.208	Ford, LSU, SJU
Avg.	0.498
Std. Dev..	0.171

"Protecting" a rival clearly still holds for the coming season, as Xavier and Dayton will renew their in state rivalry, Temple will face both Big 5 rivals (La Salle and Saint Joseph's), while Massachusetts and Rhode Island will extend their regional (New England) rivalry with another home & away series this season. Travel appears to have played a role as well, as Charlotte, Richmond and George Washington have all managed another season with mirror games. Television match-ups, Xavier/Dayton aside, appears to be a minor consideration. Looking at the average of the PWPs, it may seem the schedule maker created a "balanced" set of mirrors conference-wide, the standard deviation (and a visual inspection of the list highest to lowest) would strongly suggest otherwise.

Notes & Observations
A blend of regional rivals may help Charlotte's travel budget, but George Washington was stronger than anticipated last season, and with new coach Mike Lonergan at the helm in place of the departed Karl Hobbs combined with the return of well regarded (but red shirted last season) Lasan Kromah, the Colonials should be an even tougher challange in 2012. The Spiders lost Kevin Anderson and Justin Harper (and Dan Geriot), but Coach Chris Mooney has a deep squad at Richmond, which suggests the 49ers will again post a losing record in these six games.

Duquesne and Xavier account for Dayton's high PWP average for 2011, but Coach Rick Majerus returns over 90% of the minutes from the Bills' 2011 squad, and also bring back suspended Kwamain Mitchell, an All-Conference player in 2010. If Duquesne can regain their early 2011 momentum, Dayton may be hard pressed to come away from that six game set with even one win.
Xavier's mirrors seem to be a good balance of rivals and travel, but Saint Louis may be a tougher opponent this time around.

St. Bonaventure may benefit from a down year at Rhode Island and continued slow progress at Fordham. Like Xavier, the Bonnies appear to have drawn a traditional rivals schedule (Fordham and Duquesne) with travel (Rhode Island) as a consideration too. Coach Schmidt's squad went 4-2 against those three in 2011, and, given the 25% returning minutes at Kingston in 2012, may do even better in 2012.

Massachusetts, like St. Bonaventure, earned a 4-2 record against their mirror opponents in 2011, but if Saint Joseph's, the beneficiary of a an above average percentage of returning minutes (69%), improves as anticipated, Coach Derek Kellogg may be pressed to repeat that record in 2012. For a coach already feeling a bit of heat, that may well be the tipping point in his tenure.

Coach Jim Baron will see only 24% of his 2011 minutes return for 2012, so even with a rather light set of mirror opponents, the Runnin' Rams may take a step back from their 2011 3-3 mirror record.

Temple's 6-0 mirror record last season was due, in large measure, to the weakness of their three opponents who managed a collective 11-37 record in conference play last season. Collectively Fordham, La Salle and Saint Joseph's will absolutely improve their record next season, but expect Coach Fran Dunphy's squad to post another 6-0 record versus those three. That is a huge advantage when putting together a conference record.

On Second Thought -- Plotting Trendlines for Atlantic 10 Teams (pt 2)

Badly Timed Slumps...
After developing the trendlines for all 14 teams of the Atlantic 10 Conference, two trends were obvious (a characteristic shared in common it would seem, with all conferences) -- those teams for whom the adjusted offensive efficiency trendline plotted above the adjusted defensive efficiency trendline, and remained there for the entire conference regular season, and those teams for whom the adjusted defensive efficiency trendline plotted above the adjusted offensive efficiency trendline and remained there throughout conference play. The former generally (but not always) finished at the bottom of the conference. The latter tended to dominate in conference play, finishing at the top of the conference. Those two trends however, account for about half the teams in the A10 (and seven of 16 teams in the Big East), but what of the others? Among the other seven Atlantic 10 teams two trends predominated -- either the offense declined as the conference season wore on, to the point that the defensive trendline crossed over or the offensive efficiency trendline rose through the latter part of the season (at least...). The first trend suggests the team was falling into a late season slump. The second trend, the team's offensive efficiency improved as the season progressed, suggests the players were "getting it" offensively (or the staff had begun to identify -- and play -- those players who were "getting it" offensively), but may have struggled with defense. The defensive efficiency trendline may (or may not) have crossed over the offensive trendline, but for three of those four teams (those three will be the subject of the next "On Second Thought..." post), the offensive efficiency trendline was above the defensive efficiency trendline by the end of conference play. This post will look at the four teams whose defensive efficiency trendlines were above their offensive efficiency trendlines by the end of conference play. The conference standings/seeds for the Atlantic 10 Tournament with the featured teams highlighted:

	W	L	Pct.
Xavier	15	1	0.938
Temple	14	2	0.875
Richmond	13	3	0.813
Duquesne	10	6	0.625
George Washington	10	6	0.625
Rhode Island	9	7	0.563
St. Bonaventure	8	8	0.500
Dayton	7	9	0.438
Massachusetts	7	9	0.438
La Salle	6	10	0.375
St. Louis	6	10	0.375
Saint Joseph's	4	12	0.250
Charlotte	2	14	0.125
Fordham	1	15	0.063

As the trendlines below illustrate, by season's end the defensive efficiency trendline had definitely crossed the offensive efficiency trendline for all four teams.

Dayton

The trendlines shadowed each other during the entire conference season

As suggested by the trendlines, the Flyers maintained a 0.500 record through most of conference play. If the dropped a (surprise) road game to Duquesne early in the season, they broke back later against the Dukes. They collapsed in the last three conference games however, sliding from a 7-6 record to finish 7-9. Despite a conference tournament mini-run, the Flyers' credentials qualified them for the NIT only. The defending champions from 2010, the Flyers went out in the first round, 94-84, to the College of Charleston. Coach Brian Gregory accepted the Georgia Tech coaching job in April.

Duquesne

A soft early schedule caught up with the Dukes?

Through much of the out of conference schedule, the Dukes racked up the kind of efficiency margins that drew the notice of notable stat geeks, an unimpressive schedule accepted. Through the first half of conference play, the preseason raves seemed justified, but as the Dukes' offensive trendline hints, there was trouble ahead. Though their 19 point win over Fordham (91-72) looks like their high water mark offensively, Coach Ron Everhart's squad did record an impressive 25 point win (84-59) over George Washington. But a corner had been turned, as Duquesne's offensive efficiency trended down through the last 10 games of the conference season. Though they hung on to qualify for a bye seed in Atlantic City, the Dukes were eliminated in an overtime quarter final game by Saint Joseph's. Duquesne was eliminated in the quarter final round of the CBI Tournament, 77-75, by Oregon of the Pac-10 Conference.

Rhode Island

Another end of season slump?

The "book" on Rhode Island in the Coach Baron Era is the team starts strong and fades by season end. The Runnin' Rams played a very competitive 83-75 game against Pittsburgh (in Pittsburgh) to open the season, and (despite several subsequent headscratching losses in their out of conference schedule), opened the conference season with a 5-3 record. Through the first eight games Rhode Island's offensive efficiency improved by 9 points (per 100 possessions). Though the offensive efficiency trendline continued to mark improvement, the rate slowed to approximately two points (per 100 possessions). Meanwhile, the defensive efficiency trendline slipped upward, putting the team "under water" in their last three games of the regular season (actually a 1-2 record). The Runnin' Rams recorded a 4-4 record over the last half of their conference slate to drop into a first round game to qualify for Atlantic City. Coach Baron's squad was invited to the CBI Tournament where they were eliminated 66-54 in the quarter final round by Central Florida of CUSA.

St. Bonaventure

Note the consistent improvement in offensive efficiency

Most Bonnies fans would not think of the 2011 season as a bust. The team had it's strongest showing since 2001-02, logging a >0.500 record with an 8-8 finish in the Atlantic 10. Coach Mark Schmidt's squad finished in the A10's upper division, a feat not accomplished since the 2001-02 season. Schmidt has matched or bettered the Bonnies win total each season he has directed the team, and with the CBI bid, this is the first post season for St. Bonaventure since their 2001-02 bid to the NIT. St. Bonaventure had two characteristics different from the other three teams...

1. The Bonnies' offensive efficiency improved throughout the 2011 conference season. The initial point (around 95) may seem low, but the Bonnies gradually improved that efficiency through the season, finishing at around 115, a versy strong finish.
2. The defense undermined the Bonnies' offensive progress, though that too was trending in the "right" direction by season's end.

The trendlines do not, however serve as a good predictor to St. Bonaventure's post season prospects. The Bonnies dropped their last two games of the season, an upset to La Salle allowed the Explorers to swipe their ticket to Atlantic City, and a first round loss to Central Florida knocked them out of the CBI. In all however, a season to build on for next year.

2011 Atlantic 10 Tournament -- 6 Takaways

Pausing at the End of the Regular Season
After blogging five of the seven games in the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Friday, Saturday and Sunday, I reflected on what I saw in March 2010 and what I saw in March of 2011. The drive home was interrupted by texts and calls on the seeds and regions for the NCAA, but as the phone traffic died down and the Garden State Parkway behaved, I had a chance to think about the conference, the venue and what might be coming next...

1. Atlantic City is a great venue for a tournament -- The A-10 Conference was an outstanding host and Boardwalk Hall, not under siege from an offshore Nor'Easter as it was the first weekend March of 2010, provided a dry and comfortable, fan friendly venue for a college game. The attendance relies heavily on the A-10 member fan-base. The games did not draw much by way of street traffic. That was a problem, as neither Richmond nor Dayton, the finalists, are within short-term traveling distance from Atlantic City, and therefore unable to get to Atlantic City for the Championship game. Attendance for the semi-final games which featured two Philadelphia schools, was 8,285. Attendance for the Championship game was 5,602. Put another 5,000 fans in the seats and the place would rock.

2. Dayton's Old Habits Are Hard to Break -- After "counter programming" for three rounds, Dayton fell back into their old pattern in the championship game. And lost. In the first three rounds the Flyers took an early lead over their opponents (Massachusetts, Xavier and Saint Joseph's) through a mix of three point shooting and fast breaks. During that three game run the Flyers' three point completion rate -- 50.9% -- was better than their two point completion rate, 47.0%, and they scored 17 fast break points in their quarter and semi final games. Against Richmond the Flyers returned to form, they fell behind early on the road and spent the rest of the game playing catch up. Their three point conversion rate, 21.4% was lower than average, but two fast break points was a killer, and gave proof that Richmond's defensive strategy, defend the three point line, limit offensive rebounds and stay in front of Dayton's forwards and guards, worked. Dayton is headed to the NIT for the second consecutive post season. They won it all last season, and it will be interesting to see if Coach Gregory's squad can maintain the focus necessary to make a run this post season.

3. Kevin Anderson was unstoppable -- When Richmond needed points, he got them, or found the teammate who would. The Tournament MVP scored 66 total points over three games, an average of 22.0 points per game. The senior point guard score 24 points on eight converted three pointers, 22 from 11 converted two pointers and 20 points from the free throw line.

4. Temple was too small and too shallow to win three games in three days -- They need to get Scootie Randall back. Coach Dunphy used a seven man rotation against Richmond, and La Salle (discounting one minute stints for Dutch Gaitley and Jake Godino). It was not enough against Richmond, as the Spiders outrebounded the Owls by six (42 to 36), but more importantly, limited the Owls to a very paltry 25.6% offensive rebounding rate (the Owls rebounded just over 25% of their missed field goal attempts). That rate declined over the halves, from 27.8% to 23.8%. Were the Temple rebounders tiring?

5. Richmond's defense can win games -- Of defensive rebounding -- "...that's...not a tremendous strength of ours...this tournament was probably the most consistent we've every rebounded..." He went on to credit Darrius Garrett as their defensive stopped and principal rebounder. "...not a strength" is an understatement, the Spiders are ranked (per Ken Pomeroy) #291 (out of 345) for offensive rebounding, and a below average #195 for defensive rebounding. For the three games in Atlantic City, the Spiders' offensive rebounding rate rose to "above average" (the rank in the range of #147-#152) while defensive rebounding had the Spiders limited opponents to a 26.1% rebounding rate all season, would be ranked #5. That rebounding rate will win games. The defensive retooling, should it carry over into the NCAAs, should get the Spiders out of the first weekend.

6. Saint Joseph's...next year -- Their 6-5 finish to the season (after a 5-17 start) has assured a 17th season on Hawk Hill for Coach Phil Martelli...and raised expectations for next season? The veteran coach can look to a stable and productive backcourt pairing in Carl Jones and Langston Galloway that will be balanced with an inside presence in CJ Aiken, Ronald Roberts and Darius Quarles. The late season surge may be attributed to something as obvious as "We got tired of losing..." -- the sentiment expressed by a Saint Joseph's player in the Duquesne post game press conference, but the veteran coach will need more than the good feelings of a 6-5 finish going into next season. In addition to finding replacements for seniors Charoy Bentley and Idris Hilliard, Martelli has to hold this nucleus together through the off season. While Hawk faithful may feel recruiting errors have been the biggest program failing since the Hawks' 2004 run to the Elite Eight, holding onto and developing those players recruited has proven to be the bigger challenge.

Onto the Post Season...
NCAA -- Three A-10 teams Xavier (#6, East Region), Temple (#7, West Region) and Richmond (#12, Southwest Region) were seeded in the NCAA field.
NIT -- A single team, the Dayton Flyers were offered a spot in the field of 32. The Flyers will host Charleston Tuesday night.
CBI -- Three teams are entered in the Gazelle Group's College Basketball Invitational Tournament and will play their first round games Wednesday. Rhode Island will host Miami (Oh), while St. Bonaventure will travel to Central Florida and Duquesne will travel to Montana.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: A Second Look at the A-10 Quarter Finals

by Ray Floriani

ATLANTIC CITY, NJ - A look and analysis of the other three quarterfinal games at Boardwalk Hall.

In front of Boardwalk Hall
between sessions

The scores...

Team	Score			Team
Dayton	68		67	Xavier
Saint Joseph's	93	OT	90	Duquesne
Temple	96		76	La Salle
Richmond	55		45	Rhode Island

Jim Baron instructing the Rams
during a time out

Story of Richmond and Rhode Island was defense. A 58 possession game, neither team hit 100 offensive efficiency. That is good defense, In this case Richmond's was better. Rhode Island posted an offensive efficiency of 78 while the victorious Spiders were 97.

Richmond didn't do it by forcing turnovers. Both clubs had solid TO rates (URI 17%, Richmond 11%). Rather it was the lockdown variety forcing URI into a 40% eFG showing. Richmond also avoided fouling as the Rams attempted only 8 field goals.

Kevin Anderson, Richmond's outstanding senior guard, led the way with 21 points. He shot only 5 of 15 from the floor but did hit a late trey that basically sealed the verdict. Anderson was also 8 of 9 from the line. The vintage Anderson performance we virtually take for granted.

The Spiders' Kevin Smith did not score. The senior forward took only two shots. In the course of his 34 minutes, Smith's presence was felt with contributions -- 7 rebounds, 4 assists, a block and two steals. Valuable contributions in a hard fought victory.

this Rhode Island shirt is 'classic'

La Salle's problems were turnovers and defense. The Explorers had an abysmal 29% TO rate on the offensive end. Defensively, they couldn't force much as Temple had only 6 TOs remarkable 8% rate. Staying with the defensive topic, La Salle gave up a too generous 60% eFG percentage to the Owls. Temple actually shot a slight percentage point better from three than two. They were 10 of 19 (53%) beyond the arc and 25 for 48 (52%) from two point range. Fran Dunphy's club simply shot the ball from all over with five players in double figures.

In a 75 possession game the efficiencies:

La Salle	101
Temple	130

Temple fan lets allegiance be known

As noted I'm sure many times in the past, 101 offensive efficiency can win games for you. Winning with a defense of 130? Almost impossible.

Ramone Moore led the way with 23 points due to his versatility on the perimeter and inside. Lavoy Allen had 14 points while adding a dozen rebounds. Dunphy praised the ability of Allen to get the ball inside and find open teammates against a collapsing defense. In this game, Allen was very effective in that capacity with a team leading 6 assists and only one turnover, which came on an offensive foul.

On La Salle's behalf, note they did shoot a 60% eFG percentage. And they did get individual performances of note from Aaric Murray (22 points) and Ruben Guillandeaux (17 points). But those turnovers, which Guillandeaux unfortunately led in that category with 6, and that (lack of) defense….

The previously mentioned Richmond-Rhody game was more deliberate. Duquesne-St.Joseph's was quite the opposite. The ending also featured a lower seed holding on for an overtime victory. The St.Joseph's guards Langston Galloway and Carl Jones combined for 38% of the Hawks field goal attempts. It was not all perimeter by any stretch as Ronald Robert (19 points) and Idris Hilliard (18 points) were vital contributors.

In the 80 possession game, St.Joseph's had the edge in offensive efficiency:

Saint Joseph's	116
Duquesne	111

The Four Factors were relatively even. The Hawks did have a slight advantage in EFG percentage. They shot 59% to Duquesne's 56%. Credit that to a better showing from beyond the arc. The Hawks were 8 of 16 (50%) to Duquesne's 9 of 21 (43%).

Freshman guard T.J. McConnell missed a last second shot which could have forced a second OT. He scored 15, hitting 6 of 10 from the field. McConnell paced the Dukes with four turnovers but on a bright note, also led the team with 5 steals.

Carl Jones of St.Joseph's led all scorers with 28 points. Jones also had the TO 'bug' setting the game standard with half a dozen.

Despite these two extreme examples of individual turnover extravagance, the TO rates in this one were not that bad.

Saint Joseph's	21%
Duquesne	19%

Duquesne's Damian Saunders tied Bill Clark for the team scoring lead with 21 points. Saunders also tied Lavoy Allen of Temple with the best Manley efficiency rating of the day, at 31. When overtime is a factor though, there is another consideration regarding the Manley. More on that next time.

yours truly with
the Dayton cheerleaders

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: A-10 Quarter Finals

by Ray Floriani

ATLANTIC CITY, NJ - The Atlantic Ten quarterfinals at Boardwalk Hall, gave us two outstanding afternoon games. Lower seeds pulled the upsets in both. The evening saw the higher seeds 'hold serve' with one blowout (Temple over LaSalle) followed by a close Richmond elimination of Rhode Island. Now, the game of the day. An easy one.
The scores...

Team	Score			Team
Dayton	68		67	Xavier
Saint Joseph's	93	OT	90	Duquesne
Temple	96		76	La Salle
Richmond	55		45	Rhode Island

Game of the Day:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Dayton	63	112
Xavier	61	106

Pace was moderate but to the eye seemed faster. That was due to both teams aggressively pushing the ball. The difference was, if the transition opportunity was not there, the offense shifted to half court mode. The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Dayton	60	16	40	23
Xavier	53	16	29	16

Dayton shot the ball well, aided by an 8 of 13 (62%) mark from three. Good thing they were on as the turnover rate cancelled almost a quarter of their possessions.

Rebounding was a pre-game priority and Brian Gregory's club responded well. Xavier did do damage in the lane however. They were 53% from two point range, enjoying a slight 32-28 edge in points in the paint.

Getting more into the 'numbers' approach, Dayton was swept by their in state rivals twice. Gregory emphasized that 70 of the 80 minutes, in the two games, Dayton was right there. The focus was on improving on those minutes they fell short rather than come in with the concern of facing a higher seeded opponent who swept you in the regular season.

Chris Johnson of Dayton led all with 10 rebounds. Johnson put together a nice showing with 12 points, an assist and two steals.

The Manley Efficiency leaders:

	Manley
	Eff.
C. Johnson, Dayton	22
Tu Holloway, Xavier	18
P. Williams, Dayton	14

Holloway of Xavier led all scorers with 23 points. He was 7 of 17 from the floor but did have five assists against just two turnovers.

Williams, a junior guard hit a few timely treys. He finished with 14 points, hitting 4 of 6 beyond the arc.

Xavier committed only 10 turnovers but Jamel McLean and Mark Lyons had four each.

Luke Fabrizius added 10 points in 15 minutes for the Flyers. The junior forward won't soon be forgotten in the annals of this rivalry as he canned two game winning free throws with 5.8 seconds left. Holloway's last second attempt from deep rimmed and Dayton was celebrating and semifinal bound.

Notes
Will be back with a follow up including a general look at the other three contests from the quarters. And, not to mention, pictures.

Xavier's Tu Holloway shows the disappointment
after the loss to Dayton

Atlantic 10 Tournament -- Revised log5, Post Quarter Finals

To the Finals
A quick log5 recalculation now that Friday's quarter finals leave only four teams in the field...

	Pythag.	Prob. Thru
Team	Win %	Semi	to Win
Temple	0.8797	0.564	0.505
Richmond	0.8496	0.436	0.378
Dayton	0.6986	0.729	0.051
Saint Joseph's	0.4632	0.271	0.004

If Temple's probabilities seem a bit low, look at the Owls' probabilities relative to the rest of the field. Coach Dunphy's team emerges as the strongest among the four. While Dayton might have the strongest probability of making it to the Finals (the Flyers' probabilities of beating Saint Joseph's is 72.9%). As Hawks' Coach Phil Martelli said in last night's post game press conference, "The Hawk never dies...we were just -- we were circling...And now we've been able to soar a bit", and it appears that Duquesne's team, eliminated 93-90 in overtime against Saint Joseph's, would have to agree. It will be interesting to see how the Flyers cope with this young, and becoming more confident with each game, squad.

The other semi-final, #3 seed Richmond versus #2 seed Temple will be a more traditional matchup. Temple won in Philadelphia during the season and Richmond's perimeter players, Justin Harper and Kevin Anderson, shot a combined 4-14 in their 55-45 win over Rhode Island Friday night. They will need to do better against Temple Saturday. Temple however, is not without problems of their own. Coach Dunphy lost two more players in the season's final weeks, Michael Eric is out for the season, and Scootie Randall is day-to-day with a foot problem. Dunphy did not need the junior as the Owls beat cross town rival La Salle by 20, 96-76, on Friday night. The Owls, who played with a seven man rotation for much of the game, will need him soon.

Atlantic 10 Tournament -- log5 Through the Quarter Finals

Two Rounds
A quick log5 calculation for the first round games Tuesday and the quarter finals on Friday...

	Pythag.	Prob. Thru
Team	Win %	Rnd 1	Quart.
Temple	0.8797		0.747
Xavier	0.8872		0.727
Duquesne	0.8322		0.715
Richmond	0.8483		0.603
George Washington	0.5479	0.664	0.130
Dayton	0.6475	0.670	0.127
Rhode Island	0.6182	0.503	0.113
St. Louis	0.6158	0.497	0.111
St. Bonaventure	0.5729	0.583	0.090
La Salle	0.4893	0.417	0.048
Saint Joseph's	0.3801	0.336	0.037
Massachusetts	0.4746	0.330	0.034

The value of a bye seed, any bye seed, is clear. Three extra days of rest, the decreased exposure to injury risk and the additional preparation time are all benefits from a season well-played. The probabilities for Temple, Xavier, Duquesne and Richmond provide a quantitative sense of the advantage. The probabilities for the semi-finals and finals will emphasize the built in advantages of the bye seeds.

Quick Thoughts
1. Though Richmond has the better Pythagorean Winning Percentage than Duquesne, the Spiders drew two of the tougher quarter final opponents, Rhode Island & St. Louis. The probability is based on the Pythagorean Winning Percentage, while the seed is determined by the conference won-loss record...and tie breakers.
2. Dayton, which travels to Massachusetts is the "upset special" of the first round. The caveat emptor however, is that while UMass has struggled lately, the Minutemen are riding a three game losing streak, the Flyers are also on a three game skid, and do not travel well (-0.047, ranked #9 in the conference) to boot. The pressure however, is on Dayton to make a run in the tournament, and the road starts at Massachusetts.
3. The Rhode Island - St. Louis first round game appears to be the "toss up special". The Runnin' Rams are on a two game slide (after a decent, 5-2 February), but the Billikens' net efficiency away from Chaifetz, -0.096, is worse than Dayton's, and Coach Rick Majerus' squad is ranked #339 out of 345 in experience, per Ken Pomeroy, another factor when assessing the Billikens' chances for getting to Atlantic City. St. Louis is six games under 0.500. Unless St. Louis runs the table in the conference tournament, their season ends with the next loss.

On Second Glance...
Ken Pomeroy over at the Basketball Prospectus has completed the brackets for the A-10 among others. Check it out if you have a chance. He apparently is planning to compute the log5 for a number of conference tournaments this week.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Rhode Island at Fordham

by Ray Floriani

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - Fordham's final Izod Center appearance for this season , was a less than memorable one. Rhode Island dominated the home standing Rams 90-58 in an Atlantic Ten Conference game on Saturday.

Outside the Izod Center
on a bright (Spring?) day

The efficiencies:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Rhode Island	75	120
Fordham	77	75

Both teams entered the game averaging 67 possessions. With a significant deficit for most of the game Fordham was not about to milk possessions. They needed more, not less. The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Rhode Island	58	18	14	20
Fordham	35	19	28	20

The above table does a fairly good job telling the story. Rhode Island dominated. They started on a 10-0 run and never looked back nor were seriously threatened. Free throw rate divides made free throws by field goal attempts. Fordham had twelve free throws and 67 FGA while also canned a dozen but attempted 67 field goals. That slight 'edge' by Fordham proved a bit trivial as Rhody enjoyed huge advantages in eFG and offensive rebounding percentages.

Pre-game captains conference
run by Brian O'Connell (c).
Flanking Brian are Gary Prager(L) and John Gwynn (R)

Synergy
Rhode Island coach Jim Baron made a point of how well his team shared the ball. Decided to run Synergy on both URI and Fordham. Synergy is a metric derived in this manner:

Synergy = FG PCT/(A/FGM)

The higher the number the better. Synergy is another metric to show how teams distribute the ball. The totals for this game:

Rhode Island	0.914
Fordham	0.848

Rhode Island's Synergy, as the numbers show, was near excellent.

The Manley Numbers...
...provide a good illustration of Rhode Island's complete effort. Taking a look at URI's and Fordham's two leading scorers...

Player, Team	Pts.	Eff.
Delroy James, URI	29	35
N. Malesevic, URI	13	20
Brenton Butler, For	12	3
Chris Gaston, For	10	7

URI-Fordham action at Izod

Rhody's outstanding forward Delroy James played 28 minutes and his efficiency per minute was a superlative 1.25. Breaking 100 on the per minute efficiency is excellent and of the not too frequent variety. Butler's 5 of 11 from the floor and one assist, 5 turnovers significantly affected the efficiency of Fordham's senior guard.

Chris Gaston did not start but played 27 minutes. Gaston was late for the team bus and Fordham coach Tom Pecora had the sophomore star sit out the opening minutes. A perimeter oriented team, Fordham never got the inside game going. By the time Gaston entered the contest, with about 6 minutes gone, Fordham was already looking at a double digit deficit. The result saw 26% of their field goal attempts from beyond the arc. Their two point shooting , 17 of 48 (35%) was subpar. Overall a long afternoon.

On the other end URI relentlessly attacked and frequently got good or uncontested opportunities in the paint. For Fordham it was a total breakdown on both ends of the floor.

'Dance Rhythm', the Fordham dance team
Were one of Fordham's bright spots

Notes
Rhode Island improved to 18-10 (9-5 in the A-10). Fordham fell to 6-20 and 0-14 in conference. Both teams committed 15 turnovers and had equal turnover rates. Rhode Island made Fordham play dearly for their miscues. URI enjoyed a 29-13 edge in points off turnovers.

Rhode Island finishes the A-10 regular season slate hosting George Washington Wednesday then traveling to St. Bonaventure on Saturday. Fordham wraps up at LaSalle Wednesday and home for UMass three days later.

"We will get back to work.
If we play as we are capable we can win our last two
against LaSalle and UMass."
-- Fordham coach Tom Pecora.