Penn Post Game -- Closing Out

They Were on Fire, and Then...
There were times in the first half when it appeared, Big 5 game/rivalry or not, Villanova was going to sweep Penn right out of the Pavilion. The 'Cats opened with a 12-4 run in the game's first five minutes on their way to a 73-65 win over their Big 5 rival. The score understated the Wildcats' domination...

	Score	Poss	PPP	eFG%	TO%
Penn	4	8	0.50	33.3	25.0
Villanova	12	8	1.50	75.0	0.0

The teams were on track for a 32 possession half and a 64 possession game...with a score of 96-32 Villanova. Numbers too good to be sustained...and the skeptics were not disappointed. Not before Villanova doubled the score on Penn, 32-16 near the 3:00 mark of the first half. The Wildcats took a solid 18 point lead, 38-20, into the intermission.

"I thought it was important (with Maalik Wayns out with two first half fouls) that we did not let him (Penn point guard Zack Rosen) get started..." Coach Wright asserted in the post game press conference, "...because once he gets going, it's really tough to stop him..." This served as the explanation for Penn's point guard Zack Rosen's second half explosion. Going into the half with six points on 2-4 (0-1, 2-3) from the floor and 2-2 from the line, Penn's preseason favorite to take Player of the Year honors in the Big 5 used the time to gather himself, and returned to the floor to record 17 more points as he engineered the Quakers' second half rush to close the gap. Though they fell short, Penn whittled a deficit that bulged to 18 early in the half down to four with 0:15 left to play. Rosen's three pointer (one of seven they managed to convert after shooting 0-7 in the first half) brought the Quakers to 65-69, but they could get no closer as the young Wildcats hit their free throws to push the margin back out to eight.

With Maalik Wayns on the bench
Zack Rosen schools Achraf Yacoubou (24) in first half action

The bloggers over at VUHoops.com focus on Villanova's nine game winning streak over Penn and how the squad converted at the line to bring home the win in their piece, "9 Straight for Cats Over Quakers". The Nova Blog noted Penn's second half rally in "Villanova Holds Off Penn's..." and how the Wildcats preserved the win. The University site posted the AP wire story and the official boxscore. The breakdown by halves

Opponent	Penn
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	33.1	33.4	66.5
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	114.8	104.8	109.8		60.4	134.8	97.8
eFG%	62.1	28.8	46.4		29.2	66.1	50.0
TORate	21.2	12.0	16.5		24.2	12.0	18.1
OR%	33.3	35.0	34.3		16.7	33.3	24.2
FTA/FGA	17.2	92.3	52.7		33.3	16.1	23.6
FTM/FGA	6.9	76.9	40.0		25.0	12.9	18.2
ARate	60.0	71.4	63.6		14.3	58.8	45.8
Blk%	10.3	3.8	7.3		4.2	6.5	5.5
Stl%	9.0	8.7	8.9		9.1	3.1	6.1
PPWS	1.21	0.94	1.06		0.72	1.35	1.06
2FG%	47.4	46.2	46.9		46.7	55.6	51.5
3FG%	60.0	7.7	30.4		0.0	53.8	31.8
FT%	40.0	83.3	75.9		75.0	80.0	76.9
%2FG	47.4	34.3	41.1		70.0	44.4	52.3
%3FG	47.4	8.6	28.8		0.0	46.7	32.3
%FT	5.3	57.1	30.1		30.0	8.9	15.4

Half Time Adjustments
The pace was dictated by Villanova and remained consistent through both halves. Penn's marked, half-over-half improvement on offense (or Villanova's defensive lapse if you wish) was graphic and led by the turnaround on their outside shooting. The Wildcats kept their points per possession rate north of one (1.048 PPP) on the strength of their offensive rebounding, dramatic drop in turnovers and the large number of times they got to the line. From Zack Rosen's post game comments, "...I don't know where our confidence was...we want to go out and play with anybody, no matter who it is...and do what we do. I think in the second half we did what we did..." Indeed, the Quakers hit 7-13 from beyond the arc, One of the minor surprises is how Penn, which racked up a staggering 27 personal fouls managed to keep their entire rotation eligible for play. Three Quakers, Rosen, forward Henry Brooks and forward/center Cameron Gunter picked up four fouls apiece while four others had three fouls apiece. Five of Penn's 18 rostered players are 6-8 and taller. They struggled to block out Mouphtao Yarou, sending the junior forward to the line for 12 free throw attempts.

Notes & Observations
1. About Villanova's defense -- "We gotta learn we have to play 40 minutes...it's hard (to maintain defensive intensity), but good teams do that...when you're young...when you get a lead...the place you rest is on defense. When you're a veteran...and you're going to rest, you do it on offense" -- Coach Jay Wright

2. Maalik Wayns picked up his second foul with nine minutes left in the first half and sat for the balance of the period. He took no shots in the first half, dished two dimes, racked up a steal and committed two turnovers before retiring to the bench. Urged at the half to shoot more, the junior's line at the finish was 11 points on 2-4 (1-2 from beyond the arc, 1-2 inside) shooting from the field and 6-6 at the line.

Maalik Wayns' three pointer in the second half
helped staunch a Quaker comeback

3. With Wayns on the bench and Rosen on the loose, the staff with limited options turned to freshmen Ty Johnson and Achraf Yacoubou to pick up Wayns' minutes and they did not disappoint. Johnson logged 15 minutes as he manned the point, recording six points while providing three assists to two turnovers. The freshman grabbed a rebound and was credited with a steal. Yacoubou was a bit less productive offensively, but he did dish two dimes while committing one turnover in an 18 minute stint.

4. Yarou racked up a double-double, 21 points and 11 rebounds in 33 minutes of action. The Quakers did not have a player, or combination of players who could contain Yarou.

Ty Johnson directs the Wildcats late in the first half

5. With the win, the latest in a streak of nine (as reported by VUHoops.com), Villanova now holds a 39-14 edge over Penn in their Big 5 series. This is the least competitive of the head-to-head series within the Big 5.

Penn's Coach Jerome Allen directs the Quakers
from the sidelines

Roster Moves
The staff used an eight man rotation against Penn, the shallowest this season, as junior forward/center Maurice Sutton dislocated his right thumb in practice this week. He is expected to miss between two and three weeks. Do not look for him before the Big East season. Freshman forward Markus Kennedy collided with JayVaughn Pinkston in practice and sustained a shoulder injury. Coach Wright hopes he will be ready Tuesday for the Missouri game in Madison Square Garden.

Top Fifteen Big 5 Value Add Returning Players

The City Series
Pulling out the five Division 1 schools that make up the Big 5 from the spreadsheet sent to me by from Cracked Sidewalks poster bamamarquettefan1, I was able to sort them down to find the 15 returning players with the highest Value Add rating. I doubt the top five are next season's All-Big 5 First Team (they are good players, but Big 5 tradition mitigates against four players from the same team -- even a Final Four team -- being named to the first team...), the pool is large enough to suggest most of the First and Second All-Big 5 Teams will probably come from the list below. From highest to lowest...

			KenPom		Value
Name	College	Rank	ORtg	DRtg	Off Add	Def Sub	Total
K Wyatt	Temple	107	114.1	95.4	2.54%	-1.72%	4.26%
R Moore	Temple	115	105.2	96.8	2.43%	-1.64%	4.07%
S Randall	Temple	122	122.7	97.0	2.86%	-1.08%	3.94%
Galloway	St. Joseph's	126	113.9	108.6	3.86%	0.00%	3.86%
Jefferson	Temple	182	105.0	95.7	1.11%	-2.01%	3.12%
Z Rosen	Pennsylvania	212	110.8	106.3	2.93%	0.00%	2.93%
M Yarou	Villanova	222	107.0	97.2	1.93%	-0.96%	2.89%
C Jones	St. Joseph's	237	104.1	111.0	2.78%	0.00%	2.78%
M Wayns	Villanova	252	103.8	99.1	2.67%	0.00%	2.67%
M Eric	Temple	362	101.0	94.5	0.56%	-1.50%	2.06%
R Roberts	St. Joseph's	648	104.4	110.0	1.15%	0.00%	1.15%
D Cheek	Villanova	654	100.6	98.0	0.75%	-0.40%	1.15%
Fernandez	Temple	710	96.8	98.0	0.46%	-0.58%	1.04%
T Duren	La Salle	717	102.7	108.7	1.02%	0.00%	1.02%
C Stefan	La Salle	837	117.1	110.7	0.81%	0.00%	0.81%

One number systems like Value Add (Sub) are valuable because they can, via rankings, promote discussion about players who might not easily come to mind when thinking "best" or "best 5 (15)". A list like this should stimulate discussion about the best players in Philadelphia, and given the ranking, I have spent a few days thinking about the players from Temple and Saint Joseph's going into next season. As a Villanova fan I would not swap Mouphtaou Yarou or Maalik Wayns for any of the players ranked above them in this list, but that four players from Temple are ranked #1, #2, #3 and #5 is a credit to Coach Fran Dunphy's ability to recruit to North Broad and rebuild the Owl program. While Coach Dunphy was recognized as a good program manager and game planner during his tenure at Penn, the whispers when he moved over as Coach John Chaney's successor were whether he could recruit players for a conference as competitive as the Atlantic-10. Temple's record over the past four seasons, coupled with a listing like this should silence those voices.

Observations...
1. That Khalif Wyatt made the top 12 is hardly surprising, after all he was honored as the Atlantic-10's Sixth Man in 2011; that he is the highest rated returning player however, did get my attention. Though I have followed Temple (and La Salle and St. Joseph's) with more interest over the past two seasons, I did not believe Wyatt was the impact player suggested by the ranking. Temple placed four players among the top five -- and from my time at the Atlantic-10 Tournament last March, I believe Scootie Randall's injury and absence from the tournament influenced Temple's inability to beat Richmond in the semi-final game. Ramone Moore was, unlike Wyatt, a regular rotation player (and starter) through the entire season.
2. Zach Rosen's spot on the list is no surprise at all. Health allowing, the senior should again make the First Team All-Ivy and All-Big 5. Having an opportunity to play a second season with fifth year senior Tyler Bernardini should give Penn the best backcourt in the Ivy League next season and one that will challenge the backcourts of the other Big 5 teams -- all five of the schools will boast sterling backcourts.
3. Langston Galloway, cited four times by the A-10 as Rookie of the Week and honored with a spot on that conference's All-Rookie Team certainly belongs on this list. For the curious, CJ Aiken, another rising sophomore from Hawk Hill, was ranked #16 on the list. Having a third rising sophomore, Ronald Roberts among the top 15 certainly bodes well for Coach Martelli's squad going into 2012.
4. La Salle's contribution to the top 15, Tyreke Duren and Cole Stefan are, like Galloway and Roberts, rising sophomores. Both are guards, suggesting that the competition for "best backcourt" in the City Series in 2012, will be very competitive. Note at Sam Mills, another guard, was ranked #25, behind two other returning Explorers, forward Devon White and wing Earl Pettis.

About the Defense -- Value (Sub)
A feature of the Value Add (Sub) system is that bamamarquettefan1 combined individual statistics -- steals, defensive rebounds & blocked shots -- with team-wide statistics (Ken Pomeroy's defensive rating, to create a defensive "value" -- Value (Sub) component that he calculated for each player ranked in his system. For those defensive elements for which no individual stats were available, he eleminated the individual defensive elements (shot blocks, steals, defensive rebounds, etc.) from each team's (Pomeroy's) defensive rating, allocated that remaining value (about 72% of the team's defensive rating) according to minutes played (Min% per Pomeroy) and then "added" the individual elements with that value to compute a Value (Sub) for each player. Unlike a plus/minus approach which tallies the points for and against for each time sequence a particular player is on the court (and by indirection assess offensive and defensive "value" by presence), this system relies heavily (about 72% of the weight of the "Sub" value) on the "team" element -- that part for which no direct stats are compiled. A number of the returning Big 5 players (seven in the top 15) contributed 0.0% beyond "normal" team defense, to their team. This was, according to bamamarquettefan1, is not unusual. Because the individual defensive stats -- defensive rebounding, steals and blocked shots (weighted in that order) -- are tallied and converted for each player, a player who contributes "below" his team's average for two categories (or even one if he is significantly below average for either defensive rebounding or steals) will compute to a 0.0% Value (Sub). Six of the seven players (Ronald Roberts excepted) are guards. Lacking defensive rebounding and blocked shots (traditionally not strong areas for backcourt and wing players), that should not surprise.

Villanova - Temple Pregame

I received a note from Aaron Bracy over at Philahoops.com about tonight's game. Aaron will be at the game tonight and plans to send live updates to his blog (see above) and to twitter. Hopefully the reception is good and Aaron will be able to convey the excitement from inside the Pavilion.

Why aren't the Big 5 games all played at the Palestra anymore?
While Villanova has taken a good deal of the heat for "breaking up" the Big 5, the problems with the Palestra have been well documented over the years. The lighting is poor, the facilities are antiquated and Penn pockets all revenues from concessions. Aside from the ticket sales, the other four schools raise little revenue from playing at the Palestra (and have to pay Penn "rent" for privilege of playing there). As Aaron noted, the seating capacities at both Villanova's and Temple's campus arenas is greater than 1/2 of the gate at the Palestra. Plus each gets the benefit of a home court advantage in alternating years, something Villanova typically cannot count on at the Palestra, even when the 'Cats played their "big name" guests there in the 1960s and 1970s. The truth is each school alternates as the "host team" in the series (this year Villanova hosts) and has the choice of site, so if Temple wanted to keep up the tradition, they could schedule their matches with Villanova (and all other Big 5 rivals) at the Palestra.

The Palestra made a good deal of sense in the 1950s. The point shaving scandals that touched many teams which had scheduled their games in Madison Square Garden and "pro" arenas controlled by the Ned Irish ring (like the Philadelphia Convention Center). Villanova, unhappy with some of the scheduling practices at the downtown arena, had stopped playing there (and playing the three city schools who scheduled most of their games there) after the 1939 season. Eager for access to a larger facility however, the school opened negotiations with Penn for the use of the Palestra for their higher profile opponents. Penn agreed and Villanova scheduled a number of games during the 1950 season. The experiment was a success and Villanova continued to expand their Palestra schedule during the early 1950s...even scheduling double headers with Penn as co-host. Interestingly, the two schools did not play each other until the Big 5 contracts were signed and a City Series officially inaugurated. The Palestra was chosen because it was located on Penn's campus, and because it had a seating capacity comparable to the Convention Center. The 20,000 seat modern facilities would wait for another two decades.

Villanova and Saint Joseph's played several of their games at the Spectrum in the 1980s, but after several large gates, interest dwindled, and the schools returned to their on campus (or for Saint Joseph's, the Palestra) facilities.

If Villanova wins tonight, they will win their third City Series title in four years. The Wildcats are 22-2 in their last 24 Big 5 games, their last loss came at the hands of Temple last (played in the Liacouras Center). For more pregame information, try VU Hoops.com and Philahoops.com.

I will have the usual recap and breakdown by halves after the game.

Balancing an Unbalanced Schedule -- A10 Conference Opponents 2011

Conference Match-ups, Agendas & Objectives
In the days before 14 and 16 team super conferences, a typical conference had no less than eight and no more than 10 members. The "regular conference" season consisted of each team playing every other conference member twice, once at home and once on the road (at the other member's home). These were often referred to as "balanced schedules" because (at least in theory) each team played every other team in the least and most favorable circumstances. As 11 and larger conferences became the norm schedule makers were faced with the challenge (or opportunity?) to develop schedules that met objectives other than "balance" (each team plays every other team twice, etc.). The schedules invariably involve play at least one game with every other team in the conference, and often two (mirror) games with one or more opponents. The mirror games provide the conference with opportunities to...
1. Develop attractive TV packages. Conference elites are matched to provide good TV story lines and interest beyond conference/team fan-bases. The 2006 Big East mirrors (the first season with 16 teams) matched Connecticut, Louisville and Villanova in a mini-round robin that was supposed to settle the #1, #2 and #3 seeds for the Big East Tournament. Louisville however lost three starters to injury and was hammered by their mirror opponents.
2. Preserve traditional rivalries. As Chris De Santis over at College Chalk Talk pointed out in his article "Win, lose or draw: A look at the A-10 pairings..." from last month, "... schools and coaches are not allowed to request partners. Schools are permitted to 'protect' one rival...", which allows Dayton and Xavier (cited by Chris) to renew their annual series, even as the conference's Big 5 Trio (La Salle, Saint Joseph's and Temple) typically have multiple home-away games, with the game that counts in the City Series (until recently) played in the "neutral" Palestra (Penn's home court).
3. Limit travel. The northeastern-based conferences (the Atlantic 10 & Big East in particular) have very large footprints. For the A10 Conference, which relies largely on D1 basketball to underwrite the varsity championships awarded by the conference in 21 separate (men's and women's) sports, stretches across eight states and the District of Columbia, from New England, south to Charlotte, North Carolina and west to St. Louis, Missouri, travel expenses are a considerable part of the Athletic Department budget. Biasing toward nearby opponents for mirror games can limit travel, especially during the winter months.

Atlantic 10 Announces Conference Opponents...Early?
Having covered the A10 for Rush the Court last season, a posted note over at Soft Pretzel Logic drew my attention. A bit early for schedule announcements perhaps, but I thought with more than a season's worth of comparative data, and a history of fair predictive capabilities using the Pythagorean Winning Percentage (among other stats), I wanted to see if applying a few quantitative measures might provide insight into the match-ups and how the regular season might play out. I also wanted to try out a variation of the Pythagorean Winning percentage that filtered for home games only and away games only.

The Mirrors -- Welcome to the A10 Alan Major
Reviewing the mirrors, it occurred to me that travel and distance may have been a criteria, since mirror games account for 37.5% of the conference schedule. Richmond has George Washington and Charlotte (and a Philadelphia-based team). Rhode Island has Massachusetts, a Philadelphia-based team and St. Bonaventure. Dayton has X, St. Louis and Duquesne, and so on. I averaged Pomeroy's adjusted efficiency ratings, and sorted from the highest Pythagorean winning percentage (most difficult -- on average -- opponents) to lowest (least difficult -- on average -- opponents) the match-ups sorted out in a decidedly "unbalanced" way...

	Pythag WP
	Mirrors	Repeats?
Charlotte	0.826	Same as 2009
St. Louis	0.805	Day & Duq
Xavier	0.789	Dayton only
Fordham	0.781	URI & Bona
Saint Joseph's	0.773	TU & UMass
Duquesne	0.752	Same as 2009
Dayton	0.748	Same as 2009
La Salle	0.703	Same as 2009
George Washington	0.701	Same as 2009
Richmond	0.621	Char & GWU
Massachusetts	0.613	Same as 2009
St. Bonaventure	0.509	Duq & FU
Rhode Island	0.419	FU & UMass
Temple	0.384	LSU & SJU
Average	0.673

Pomeroy's conference-wide average for the A10 last season was 0.7114, so 0.673 suggests the schedule maker came fairly close to balancing the mirrors conference-wide, but the standard deviation (0.139...) from most difficult (Charlotte) to easiest (Temple),suggests that travel may have taken priority over balance. Temple's Fran Dunphy will no doubt include this schedule maker on his Christmas card list for 2011, as all of Temple's mirror opponents, Fordham, La Salle and Saint Joseph's, are not only very close but, having logged a collective conference record of 9-39, struggled in conference play. I have no doubt (regression to the mean...) that Fordham will be good enough to win at least one conference game next season. I suspect it won't be one of those games with Temple. Perhaps the scheduler believes the 55 year old City Series rivalry between La Salle, Saint Joseph's and Temple will make their games with Temple more competitive than the Hawks' and Explorer's collective 9-23 record suggest. The large number of all-repeat mirrors is surprising -- six conference teams (43% of the conference members) will play the same three opponents as 2009. If the bias is distance, the repeats make sense. Tannenwald's lamented "...Still, I wonder if someone in Newport News could have figured out a way to get all the Big 5 teams to play each other twice." could be solved by the three Big 5 Brethren without the active intervention of the schedule maker if each used their single "protected opponent" option (per Chris DiSano) in a round robin fashion. La Salle "protects" Saint Joseph's; Saint Joseph's "protects" Temple; Temple "protects" La Salle.

Home & Away Opponents -- Different Strategies & Circumstances
An elite conference team would most likely want to host their single meeting with other elite teams, and take the weakest conference opponents on the road if possible. For those teams a higher Pythagorean WP for home opponents would make sense. A team struggling to break the conference upper division however would most likely prefer to have it most "beatable" opponents at home and largely concede games with the elite teams by taking them on the road. An "activist" scheduler might want to use home-road game pairings to "rebalance" the schedule from the mirror games, and give a truer picture of the relative strengths/weaknesses of the members. Or the conference may simply flip the home-away opponents from the previous season (home opponents become road opponents, etc.)...

Team	Home	Away
Charlotte	0.210	0.680
Dayton	0.391	0.538
Duquesne	0.499	0.424
Fordham	0.320	0.681
George Washington	0.439	0.639
La Salle	0.309	0.706
Massachusetts	0.518	0.554
Rhode Island	0.436	0.710
Richmond	0.415	0.532
Saint Joseph's	0.406	0.551
St. Bonaventure	0.369	0.739
St. Louis	0.233	0.538
Temple	0.463	0.659
Xavier	0.314	0.616
Average	0.380	0.612
StDev	0.090	0.087

I used the raw efficiencies to calculate a Pythagorean winning percentage for home and away games. Charlotte will host Dayton, Fordham, La Salle, Saint Joseph's and Massachusetts next season, in addition to their mirrors. Of that group, only Dayton had a Pythagorean Winning Percentage above 0.500 for it's conference road games last season. The 49'ers road slate by contrast, will be fairly challenging, as they face Duquesne, Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, St. Louis and Temple (in addition to their mirror), all of whom, excluding St. Bonaventure, had a >0.500 Pythagorean winning percentage in their home conference games. Massachusetts drew the most challenging set of guests (Dayton, Duquesne, George Washington, Richmond and Temple -- 0.518), though Duquesne (Charlotte, George Washington, Rhode Island, Temple and Xavier -- 0.499) and Temple (Charlotte, Rhode Island, Richmond, St. Bonaventure and St. Louis -- 0.463) It does not appear the schedule maker simply flip home and road games however, as only Dayton, Duquesne and La Salle have no repeat home/road opponents. Every other team has at least one (Rhode Island has four, George Washington, St. Louis and Xavier have three) repeat home/away opponent. For the teams that will compete for top seeds in Atlantic City next March (Dayton? Richmond? St. Louis? Temple? Xavier?) the strong guest/weak host match-ups are not there, though for teams that may celebrate a middle seed in Atlantic City (Fordham? La Salle? St. Bonaventure?) the weak guest/strong host match-ups appear to be in place.

Limitations, Exclusions & Exceptions...
The conference received three bids to the NCAA Tournament, two bid to the NIT (both Rhode Island and Dayton advanced to the Final Four, Dayton won) and three bids to the CBI (St. Louis advanced to the Finals), a good (but not great...) season relative to the conference's history. Regression to the mean suggests that Temple, Xavier and Richmond will not be quite as good, nor Fordham and La Salle quite as bad. Sequence matters too, La Salle was better in December, when Ruben Guillandeaux, Yves Mekongo Mbala and Kimmani Barrett were healthy, than in February.

Thanks to Jonathan Tannenwald over at Soft Pretzel Logic for his post on the A10's home/away opponents for next season late last month. Jon's interest, largely all matters Big 5, writes for Philly.com and blogs about Big 5 and Ivy League sports.

Rivalries

We come from St. Olaf, we sure are the real stuff.
Our team is the cream of the colleges great.
We fight fast and furious, our team is injurious.
Tonight Carleton College will sure meet its fate.
Um Yah Yah! Um Yah Yah!
- St. Olaf College fight song

Gasoline...and a Match?
No question the students of St. Olaf consider the (Carlton College) Knights their rival. While I believe the animosity is mutual, I have yet to find a reciprocal set of lyrics in a Carleton fight song. That may be due, however, to the Carleton student body's obsession with securing ownership of a stolen bust of German philosopher Carl Schiller. The Villanova Wildcat's fight song does not single out a particular opponent. Nor as far as I can tell, have any opponents honored the 'Cats with a fight song reference.

Over on the Nova Nation message boards this past spring the subject wandered from rivals to lopsided series. The consensus was that Rutgers might be Villanova's goat, but I was not sure the series was "substantial" enough to warrant the term rivalry. I did however, wonder about that series and others, knowing there has been a long (and one or two) lopsided series among Nova's Big 5 rivals, not to mention a gem or two buried in the history books, after all, Villanova has records going back to 1921. I decided to take a look at the 2008-09 Media Guide...

Familiarity Breeds...(Contempt)?
I began with the thirty or so schools that Villanova has played most. Two facts were apparent as I surveyed the list
1. A few series stretch back to Villanova's earliest days as an NCAA program.
2. Not a lot of games were played in any series. The St. John's series, for example (most games played with Villanova), logs 101 games as of 2009 in a series that goes back 88 (or so) seasons. Oregon over in the PAC-10 conference for example, played (through 2006) 323 games with cross state rival Oregon State (a series that dates back to 1903), and 275 and 266 games with interstate rivals Washington and Washington State respectively (again, both series date back to the early 1990s). Long conference affiliations with Stanford, UCLA and USC have produced series that number 122 (from 1920), 96 (from 1937) and 95 (from 1956) respectively. Big Ten rivals, those in the SEC and the Big 12 have routinely logged series numbers similar Oregon (and their PAC-10 conference mates).

The lack of games is a feature common to many schools in the Northeast. Unlike their counterparts west of the Appalachian Mountains, teams of the Northeast did not affiliate through conferences until relatively late. Until the mid/late 1970s (when CBS paid very large broadcast fees to the NCAA for the exclusive rights to broadcast the tournament, but insisted that all invitees had to accept), most series among Northeastern schools were negotiated as a series of individual home-n-away contracts. Arrangements like the Philadelphia City Series (the Big 5) and the St. Bonventure-Niagara-Canisius (the Little 3) series were the exception, not the rule. Consequently many programs from the Northeast show a similar pattern to their series -- a small number of longstanding (frequently played) series, usually about 1/3 of the school's "most often played" list, with about half of that list made of up schools whose series boasts less than 40 games over 8 or more decades.

	Record				Series
Team	Gms	W	L	Pct.	First	Last	Span
St. John's (NY)	101	43	58	0.426	1923	2009	86
Seton Hall	96	60	36	0.625	1921	2009	88
Providence	83	49	34	0.590	1936	2009	73
Temple	81	42	39	0.519	1921	2008	87
Boston College	77	53	24	0.688	1946	2006	60
Georgetown	66	27	39	0.409	1922	2009	87
St. Joseph's	66	42	24	0.636	1921	2008	87
Syracuse	64	30	34	0.469	1946	2009	63
Connecticut	59	32	27	0.542	1941	2009	68
Pittsburgh	59	32	27	0.542	1960	2009	49
La Salle	58	32	26	0.552	1934	2008	74
Pennsylvania	56	39	17	0.696	1922	2008	86
Duquesne	50	25	25	0.500	1923	1994	71
St. Bonaventure	39	21	18	0.538	1925	1979	54
West Virginia	38	20	18	0.526	1938	2009	71
Princeton	37	22	15	0.595	1943	1991	48
Rutgers	32	24	8	0.750	1932	2009	77
Notre Dame	31	17	14	0.548	1970	2009	39
Niagara	30	20	10	0.667	1923	2008	85
Canisius	29	20	9	0.690	1926	1994	68
Muhlenburg	28	18	10	0.643	1923	1961	38
Loyola MD	24	20	4	0.833	1927	1983	56
Rider	24	23	1	0.958	1936	2006	70
Miami (FL)	23	13	10	0.565	1992	2004	12
Bucknell	22	14	8	0.636	1927	2007	80
Scranton	22	18	4	0.818	1927	1965	38
North Carolina St	22	10	12	0.455	1930	2007	77
St. Francis PA	21	19	2	0.905	1940	2000	60
Manhattan	20	9	11	0.450	1922	2002	80
Xavier	20	16	4	0.800	1952	2006	54

It comes as no surprise that all of the top 12 "most played" teams are current (green) or former (red) members of the Big East Conference or Big 5 (yellow) affiliates. No coincidence that the first twelve teams listed have a current or past affiliation with the Big East Conference or participates in the Philadelphia City Series (the Big 5). The influence of conference is apparent in the Miami (FL) series, a matchup that began and ended with Miami's "just about a decade" membership in the Big East. The teams have not maintained the series, indeed given the distances, the differences in student bodies and institutional missions (and histories), the lack of contact should not surprise.

For Auld Lang Syne...
Villanova's list still reflects a bit of basketball history from the 1940s and 1950s. Muhlenburg and Scranton were early opponents who the Wildcats played more regularly during the late 1930s and throughout the 1940s. This was the same time period when Al Severance, concerned about the growing influence of gamblers in Madision Square Garden and the Philadelphia Convention Center, eschewed playe dates in those venues in favor of campus-based play dates. The consequence was the loss of those opponents (St. John's, Temple, La Salle and St. Joseph's) who used those facilities as a "second" home court. The Muhlenburg Mules were hardly a step down in competition however, having been NIT participants several times during the 1940s. Both Scranton and Muhlenburg left Division 1 during the 1950s/60s as the conferences they belonged to reclassified to D3 and D2 respectively. Villanova and Penn agreed to play a number of double headers in Penn's on campus arena, the Palestra, for the 1950 season. The experiment was successful enough to to catch the eye and interest of the three other city schools, and serve as the precursor to the Big 5. The Dukes, Bonnies, Purple Eagles and Griffens shared a rivalry with the Wildcats that in most cases date back to the earliest days of the program. Those series were sustained over the course of decades, and especially for the Dukes and Bonnies, were competitive throughout. Changing conference affiliations and the growth of D1 basketball spelled the end to those annual matches.

Competitors & Goats
I resorted Villanova's 30 Most Played Opponents (below) by Villanova's series winning percentage. This is one of the few tables where, from a competitive standpoint, being in the middle is better than being at either end...

	Record				Series
Team	Gms	W	L	Pct.	First	Last	Span
Rider	24	23	1	0.958	1936	2006	70
St. Francis PA	21	19	2	0.905	1940	2000	60
Loyola MD	24	20	4	0.833	1927	1983	56
Scranton	22	18	4	0.818	1927	1965	38
Xavier	20	16	4	0.800	1952	2006	54
Rutgers	32	24	8	0.750	1932	2009	77
Pennsylvania	56	39	17	0.696	1922	2008	86
Canisius	29	20	9	0.690	1926	1994	68
Boston College	77	53	24	0.688	1946	2006	60
Niagara	30	20	10	0.667	1923	2008	85
Muhlenburg	28	18	10	0.643	1923	1961	38
St. Joseph's PA	66	42	24	0.636	1921	2008	87
Bucknell	22	14	8	0.636	1927	2007	80
Seton Hall	96	60	36	0.625	1921	2009	88
Princeton	37	22	15	0.595	1943	1991	48
Providence	83	49	34	0.590	1936	2009	73
Miami (FL)	23	13	10	0.565	1992	2004	12
La Salle	58	32	26	0.552	1934	2008	74
Notre Dame	31	17	14	0.548	1970	2009	39
Connecticut	59	32	27	0.542	1941	2009	68
Pittsburgh	59	32	27	0.542	1960	2009	49
St. Bonaventure	39	21	18	0.538	1925	1979	54
West Virginia	38	20	18	0.526	1938	2009	71
Temple	81	42	39	0.519	1921	2008	87
Duquesne	50	25	25	0.500	1923	1994	71
Syracuse	64	30	34	0.469	1946	2009	63
North Carolina St	22	10	12	0.455	1930	2007	77
Manhattan	20	9	11	0.450	1922	2002	80
St. John's (NY)	101	43	58	0.426	1923	2009	86
Georgetown	66	27	39	0.409	1922	2009	87

Interesting that those series where Villanova holds the greatest advantage are the least frequently played. I was surprised to see Villanova held an advantage that large over Xavier. While the two schools played 11 games in the 1950s and 1960s, the last regular season game was the 1973 season-ending matchup at Xavier. The last two meetings were a post season tilt during Villanova's NIT championship run in 1994 and a Wildcat loss to the X-men at the 2006 Paradise Jam. That Rutgers is Villanova's least competitive Big East opponent (South Florida, with 3 losses excepted) is hardly surprising, but Penn, a Top 25 All Time ranked program as Villanova's easiest (by far) Big 5 opponent should trigger a few head scratches.

When Does a Series Become a Rivalry?
1. Locality isn't required, but it helps -- St. Olaf and Carleton are both located in Northfield, MN. Bragging rights for Northfield may seem like small stakes, but in the dead of winter Northfield may seem like the universe. It is only 15 miles from Bethlehem, PA (Lehigh) to Easton, PA (Lafayette College). Is New England big enough for both Providence and Boston College (I gave preference to a conference mate). Notre Dame and USC have managed to stoke a (football) rivalry that stretches halfway across the continent, but it has to be easier if the rival is across town (like USC & UCLA; Cincinnati & Xavier) or within traveling distance (Seton Hall & Rutgers).
2. Contending for something of value raises the stakes -- and the passions. Villanova and Georgetown contended for a National Championship 24 years ago. That single game has become a reference point for both teams (especially when they meet and both squads are contending for conference honors), but the passion has not been sustained over the decades. Like many "failed relationships", it may be a matter of bad timing -- the Hoyas have tended to be down when the 'Cats are up, and visa versa (most of the time). Despite a promising, 7-6 pre-Big East start to their series, Villanova has compiled a passion-dampening 0.409 winning percentage against the Hoyas (worst of any of their Big East conference mates). The Thompsons have been heck on the Wildcats.
3. Sibling Rivalries -- are often the most heated. Our Civil War generated passions for a century after its conclusion, quite unlike World War II, after which the US entered into alliances with Germany, Italy and Japan within a decade after the conclusion of hostilities. Both Carleton College and St. Olaf are ranked in the Top 50 among Liberal Arts colleges (Carleton holds the decided edge in rankings, which may explain why St. Olaf makes the direct reference while Carleton students feign greater interest in a dead German philosopher) and draw their students from the same ethnic groups and geographic areas. The same generally holds for the "L"s in Pennsylvania. The Temple-Villanova series may be, based on winning percentages, the most closely contested of all of the Big 5 series, but it is the Villanova-St. Joseph's series that carries the name "Holy War". A socio-economic breakdown of St. Joes's and Nova's student bodies shows that those two schools draw from largely the same groups in largely the same geographic areas of the Middle Atlantic region. Nothing stings like the taunts from your brother (or sister).

Preview -- La Salle

The Explorers are next up in the Wildcat's Big 5 round robin. The Villanova-La Salle series dates back to 1934, with the Wildcats holding a 31-24 edge. Villanova's second most competitive series among the Big 5 schools, has lately become an extended Wildcat run. The 'Cats are currently on a 6 game run versus the Explorers, which is one more than the 5 game losing streak the Explorers put on the Wildcats back in the 1970s. Can Villanova keep the run going...

What Others Say...
... Blue Ribbon gives the backcourt a B-, the frontcourt a B+ and the bench/depth a B. The A10's conference blog, College Chalk Talk projected La Salle to finish 7th in their conference this season. The preview, authored by frequent guest contributor Ray Floriani, provides an in depth rundown of the roster. With an eye to the Villanova - La Salle clash on Sunday, Ray published an interview with Explorer Coach John Giannini just last week. The BRY projected a 5th place finish...

So Far...
...La Salle (A10, 4-3, RPI #135) has more good losses -- a 4 point loss to Florida State (ACC 8-1 RPI #9) and an 8 point loss to Connecticut (BE, 9-0, RPI #12) for example -- than good wins. Their best win so far is a 6 point road win over the Hartford Hawks (NEC, 3-7, RPI #231).

Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
...La Salle will start a duo of juniors, Kimini Barrett (6-6, 190lbs) and Yves Mekongo Mbala (6-7, 210lbs) along side sophomore Jerrell Williams (6-8, 210lbs) in their forward spots. Note that like Villanova the Explorers do have a true #5; they will play one of Williams or junior Vernon Goodridge (6-9, 230lbs) in the paint. Barrett and Mbala equally inclined to shoot and take an occasional 3FGA. According to the preview posted on La Salle's official website, Barrett has had the hot hand lately, scoring double digit points in 5 of the Explorer's games this season. Coach Giannini has rounded out the Explorer's rotation with Jerrell's twin brother Terrell (6-8, 210lbs) and senior Paul Johnson (6-6, 195lbs).

Villanova will likely start Cunningham, Pena and Anderson, the three they started for the St. Joseph's game on Thursday. Anderson is working himself back into game shape, having sat out the Wildcats first six games and logging only 27 minutes in 2 appearances in the 3 games that preceded his start against St. Joseph's. Dante has recorded 2 double-doubles this season. Shane Clark has not started this season, but has posted an efficient 54.1% eFG averaging 17.1 minutes per game. He has not however established himself as more than the 4th option on offense. Corey Stokes can slide over to the #3, while Frank Tchuisi has logged minutes against some of the weaker opponents earlier in the season.

Backcourt vs backcourt...
...Expect the Explorers to go with their veteran backcourt juniors, high scoring Rodney Green (6-5, 190lbs) and pg Ruben Guillandeaux (6-5, 195lbs). Green and Guillandeaux have logged a large chunk of the available time so far, Green playing nearly 90% of the available minutes at the #2. Guillandeaux has taken nearly 64.3% of the available minutes in the other backcourt spot. The balance of the rotation/minutes have gone to senior Darryl Partin (6-4, 180lbs) or (more likely...) one of the wing forwards (Barrett or Johnson). The La Salle preview projects the game as a Green/Reynolds shootout, but clearly the forwards Barrett and Mbala are capable of picking up the slack should Green falter.

The Wildcats will start Scottie Reynolds and Corey Stokes, with Reynolds playing the #1. The rotation will bring in Fisher and Redding early and often, most likely rotating one of the forwards (Pena? Anderson?) to give Villanova a smaller and quicker lineup.

La Salle By the Numbers...
The Explorer program's RPI has cycled from the low 100s to the mid 200s over the past five seasons. There is a good deal of optimism that they are in a up swing now. La Salle is a lower than average pace team this season (66.1 possessions, adjusted, via Ken Pomeroy's La Salle Scout Page which ranks the Explorers #232 out of approx. 343 - the current average for pace is 67.8). A Four Factors matchup of La Salle's offense and Nova's defense looks like this...

When La Salle has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Explorer O	48.7	22.1	36.9	30.8
Wildcat D	44.8	23.2	28.3	35.5

The matchup of note will be on the boards. La Salle makes up for anemic shooting efficiency by rebounding misses. Defensive rebounding has been a Villanova strength however. Nova guards, notably Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher, have been more aggressive on the boards this season (with a few exceptions). La Salle's shot efficiency (eFG%) is ranked a very average (for D1) #164 right now. Nova's shot defense is ranked #58. The Explorer's defense versus Nova's offense looks like this...

When Villanova has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Wildcat O	52.2	18.8	39.4	33.9
Explorer D	47.0	16.8	30.6	35.8

Several stats on this end provide hints on how this game could go. Nova's 53.3 eFG% looks impressive (it is, the 'Cats are ranked #54...) but know that the 'Cats have posted eFGs of 46 and 42 in three of their last four games. The efficiency is inflated by opponents like Houston Baptist. But the Explorers are not especially good at defending the field goal -- they are ranked #119, with 3 point defense (36.7%, #255) the culprit...a big game for Corey Stokes perhaps? Punching the ball inside to Cunningham may not be the recipe for success at the Gola Arena as La Salle has been very good at defending the 2FGA (43.6%, #68). Both teams are aggressive on the boards. The 'Cats typically get about 40% of their misses (39.4, #34), while the Explorers are noted for denying opponents those boards (30.6, #90). Dante has been the leader at grabbing offensive boards, as he goes, so go the 'Cats. Villanova has been pretty good at getting to the line (evidenced by their effort against St. Joseph's last week), while La Salle has been very average (ranked #160) at keeping opponents off the line.

Finally...
...The numbers favor Villanova, but losing to Texas, followed by a very close scrape with St. Joseph's and now going on the road (to the Gola Arena on the La Salle campus) to play the Explorers may be enough to throw the 'Cats off. Two losses within a 6 day period would be a blow to the team's expectations for the season, but very possible given the difficulties handling the 'Horns and Hawks.

It is a bit telling that Coach Wright settled into a 9 man rotation against the Texas, with only seven players getting ten or more minutes. In the closely contested St. Josesph's game (with the Wildcats behind for much of both halves), the staff shortened the bench to 8 players, giving each more than 10 minutes. That is a Big East/post season rotation. Those eight players (Anderson, Clark, Fisher, Pena, Redding, Reynolds and Stokes) drew minutes ranging from 36 (Reynolds) down to 13 (Redding), the staff clearly showing Clark, Fisher and Redding as a "second line". If the game is competitive throughout, expect (as in the St. Joseph's game) to see a good deal of Reynolds, Cunningham and Anderson. If the game is well under control (which would be a surprise to me) expect to see more of Clark and Redding, with spot duty to Tchuisi and walk-on Jason Colenda.

Both teams tend to play below the D1 average pace (67.8), so expect this to be another deliberate game, with scores in the 50s-70s. Crunching offensive/defensive ratings I get a win for the Wildcats with the margin in the low-mid double digits. But this is the Big 5...

The 2008 Philly Classic

While scanning a message board last week I ran across a thread that linked to a story posted on Jeff Goodman's Good 'n Plenty Blog. The Villanova-related nugget was located near the bottom of post (why don't some of the Gang of 500 do their Big East Roundup stories in reverse alphabetical order once in awhile?), "Big East Offseason Roundup". Goodman located the field (and dates) for the 2008 Philly Classic, the exempt tournament that Villanova was rumored to have committed to play in for the 2008-09 season. Although Goodman posted last Thursday, I held off on this because the field had been the subject of an Aprils Fools joke on the Penn State athletic department website. The prankster formatted an official-looking announcement that identified (along with Penn State and Villanova...) Duke as one of the eight participating teams. The "announcement" was pulled later that day, but rumors of a Villanova-Duke game persisted for weeks afterward. I have not been able to independently confirm the field that Goodman announced, so the actual field may have other changes before the season opens in November. Goodman list, sorted by RPI, turns out to be:

		Record			Ranking
Team	Conf.	W	L	Pct.	RPI	KenPom
Villanova	BE	22	13	0.629	51	43
Rhode Island	A10	21	12	0.636	107	82
Niagara	MAAC	19	10	0.655	116	153
Penn State	B10	15	16	0.484	157	108
Hartford	AE	18	16	0.529	177	245
Towson	CAA	13	18	0.419	235	229
Monmouth	NEC	7	24	0.226	295	301
NJIT	Indy	0	29	0.000	341	341

Like last season, this year's tournament field has a decidedly local flavor, as all teams are located in the Northeast and New England. While the Palestra no doubt offers the tournament a certain historical cachet, lack of a television contract and a venue with large seating capacity have probably worked to hold down the tournament budget, which in turn has probably worked to limit the pool of potential participants. According to discussions during last year's tournament, the hosting responsibilities will rotated among members of the Big 5.

The original exempt tournaments of the 1980s and 1990s, brought 8 teams to a host facility and played 4 games over a 4 - 5 day period. The Philly Classic follows the format favored by later exempt tournaments like the Legends Classic (and the CBE, etc.). The eight team field will play two rounds at host school locations before coming into Philadelphia to play the last 2 rounds, to be played at the Palestra, over the 4 day Thanksgiving Weekend. Unlike the Legends format results from the preliminary rounds will not affect the seeding of the later rounds. In the inaugural Philly Classic, the organizers seeded the higher ranked (by RPI?) teams, along with Big 5 host Penn, together in the "Independence Bracket", while the other four teams were seeded in the "Liberty Bracket". Liberty Bracket teams played Independence Bracket teams in the preliminary games. Six of the eight preliminary round games were hosted by Independence Bracket teams. If the organizers decide to use the same format for this year's Classic, expect Villanova, Rhode Island, Penn State and Niagara to be bracketed together for the Friday and Sunday games, while Hartford, Monmouth, Towson and NJIT will be bracketed together for their last two rounds.

I think the 2 preliminary round teams that would do the least violence to Villanova's SOS would be Hartford and Towson. Too bad the 'Cats played Hartford last season, a rematch with Leibovitz might be interesting (and given Leibovitz's tenure as an Assistant Coach at Temple) a great idea for local appeal in getting fans out to games in the other bracket...). Monmouth might be a good choice. The (Monmouth) Hawks were 7-24 last season with, like Villanova, a "senior-less" team. They are bound to improve this season. NJIT should be avoided, the Highlanders will be (at best...) only modestly better than last season. Even with improvement however, they will still have an RPI in the 300s.

A point of interest for Villanova fans is that two of the teams in the field, Penn State and Niagara, have former Wildcats on their rosters. Depending on the seeding and results of the first game in Philadelphia, Villanova may well face Andy Ott's (Penn State) and Bilal Benn's (Niagara) new teams. Andy Ott will not dress for any fall games, as he does not become eligible until the end of the fall semester. Nevertheless I am sure Ott and his former teammates will enjoy catching up on old times.

Preview -- La Salle Explorers

The Wildcats and Explorers renew their Big 5 rivalry on Saturday. The La Salle series, which stands at 29-26, is the second most competitive among Villanova's Big 5 rivalries. The Explorers may be 5 decades removed from their National Championship, but they have managed in each of the intervening decades, to find at least one very talented player to build a team around. Three of those players, Tom Gola (1954), Michael Brooks (1980) and Lionel Simmons (1990) have been honored as player of the year. They last earned a bid to the NCAAs in the 1991-92 season. The current 5-0 winning streak ties the longest consecutive Ws/Ls sequence in the rivalry history. One would have to go back to the early 1970s (1972-73 through 1976-77) Villanova's 5 game losing streak to find another streak of comparable longevity. A win this season would, like the win streak Villanova tied against Temple earlier in the month, would set another record...

What Others Say...
... Blue Ribbon gives the backcourt a B, the frontcourt a C and the bench/depth a B. A team whose freshmen promised to be the brightest lights last season are now sophomores, with another promising (but not as large...) group of freshmen to join them. The road will not be lonely.

Giannini is entering the season with a promising collection of sophomores in Rodney Green, an Atlantic 10 All-Rookie Team selection last season, Kimmani Barrett and Yves Mekongo Mbala. With Sherman Diaz and Darnell Harris being the only seniors on the team, he is hoping the talented youngsters continue to mature. "The sophomores and freshmen make up the team that will play the next couple of years," said Giannini, who has four newcomers on his roster, including promising twin forwards Jerrell and Terrell Williams. "We are on a mission to win games, sharpen our skills and prove that (13th place) prediction wrong...That team will be good, very good," Giannini said. "This season is all about the growth of the freshmen and sophomores and this is the hardest working team I've had in 21 years of coaching."
- Brendan F. Quinn, The Bulletin, 1026/2007, "Owls, Explorers Hope To Join Hawks As Contenders"

The promising freshmen are sophomores now. They still have a nice mix of upper classmen who may well provide perspective and maturity to this group.

Why Everyone Believes...
...A run at the A10 championship is most likely out of the question, but the sophomores, Kimmani Barrett (guard, 6-6, 190lbs), Rodney Green (guard, 6-5, 190), Rubin Guillandeaux (guard, 6-6, 185) and Yves Mekongo-Mbala (forward, 6-6, 185) will get better, the incoming freshmen will provide depth and contribute to the overall success of the team. As the season progresses the group may be in a strong position to make some noise next season. Any damage they do this season will suggest what they can do next season.

So Far...
...After a 3-2 (promising...) start in November, La Salle took to the road in December and have gone 1-4. Those losses include Bucknell (Patriot League, 4-6, RPI #194), Morgan State (MEAC, 5-4, RPI #124), Mississippi (SEC, 11-0, RPI #11) and DePaul (Big East, 3-7, RPI #146). The lone December win came over Puerto Rico Mayaguez, a D2 school and host of the San Juan Tip Off Classic. The 'Cats and Explorers share a common opponent (so far) this year:

	VU		LS
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Bucknell	W	+6	L	-1

Admittedly not much to go on. Annual rivalries are even more difficult to predict because emotions usually run very high.

La Salle By the Numbers...
Over the past 5 years La Salle's RPI has ranged from a high of #104 (2005-06) to a low of #286 (2006-07). La Salle is a higher than average pace team this season (71.9 possessions, adjusted, via Ken Pomeroy's La Salle Scout Page which ranks the Explorers #79 out of approx. 343 - the current average for pace is 69.4). La Salle's 4 Factors for Offense and Defense look like this:

When La Salle...	eFG	Rnk	TOv	Rnk	OReb	Rnk	FRate	Rnk
...is on Offense	49.3	186	23.7	250	37.9	49	20.9	265
...is on Defense	48.6	131	18.1	325	32.2	130	34.2	137

The Explorers' overall Offensive rating (adjusted) is 99.4, ranked #189. In short La Salle is struggling to put points on the board. Their offensive rebounding percentage (37.9 -- #49) is very good and should mask their lack of accuracy shooting the ball. But they turn it over a bit too much (23.7, nearly 1 time in 4), and they don't get to the line often. Their lack of agression is apparent on defense as well. While La Salle appears to be foul prone (that may be a byproduct of the number of defeats -- late game fouling to regain a possession quickly. But the Explorers do not rebound the defensive glass as well as they do the offense, and they do not force turnovers.

Frontcourt vs frontcourt...
...Coach Giannini will start sophomore Yves Mekongo-Mbala, junior Paul Johnson (6-6, 195) and most likely freshman Jerrell Williams (6-8, 210). Also drawing consistent minutes in a frontcourt rotation are are senior Sherman Diaz (6-4, 190) and Jerrell Williams' twin brother Terrell, also a freshman (6-8, 210). Villanova will counter with 2+ year starter Dante Cunningham, most likely partnered with fellow junior Shane Clark. If this game is consistent with other December games, redshirt freshman Antonio Pena and Corey Stokes will also see time. Sophomore center Casiem Drummond, who played briefly against Temple and then missed the Hartford and Columbia games with some tendonitis, will most likely sit out this game as well. La Salle's tallest players are the Williams twins, Terrell and Jerrell, both of whom measure at 6-8.

Backcourt vs backcourt......Coming into the season Rubin Guillandeaux was tabbed as the point guard of the furture. Guillandeaux has only received small amounts of time. It is doubtful that he will start the Villanova game. Starting nods to to senior (& 1000 point scorer) Darnell Harris is starting along with Rodney Green and wingman Kimmani Barrett. Guillandeaux (6-6, 185) and freshman Kyle Griffin (6-3, 185) round out the regulars. Freshman Darryl Parton (6-4, 180) also gets a little bit of PT. The staff will counter with Big East rookie of the year winner Scottie Reynolds, along with (most likely...) Reggie Redding and freshmen Corey Fisher. Grant will also draw double digit minutes off the bench...

Final Thoughts...
...The Explorers will look to Darnell Harris, their senior sometime point guard, to supply the large measure of their offense. Indeed when he is on the court he will take (according to Pomeroy's La Salle Scout Page), about 25% of their FGAs. And that attempt will most likely come from behind the 3 point line. Harris is La Salles' most dangerous three point threat, but shares his role with Rodney Green who is decidely less efficient. Together they take about 47% of the touches and nearly 54% of La Salle's FGAs when they are on the court together. Harris & Green are the featured pieces in La Salle's backcourt-oriented offense. The 'Cats can expect to see 2 point attemtps from Barrett and Guillandeaux, both of whom contribute efficient scoring when they are on the court. Kyle Griffin also scores, though his efficiency may benefit from attention devoted to Barrett, Guillandeaux, Green and Harris. The frontcourt is there to rebound, block shots and get to the line. Mbala, Johnson, Jerrell Williams (and guard Kimmani Barrett) are all ranked in the Top 500 for offensive rebounding percentage (see side bar links for an explanation of possession-based stats). Those same three forwards and guard Rodney Green are ranked #200-#499 for defensive rebound percentage as well. If a shot is coming from the #4 or #5 position, it will most likely be taken by Jerrell Williams or Paul Johnson. Villanova's frontcourt should get one of it's biggest rebounding challenges from La Salle's frontcourt. It should be a good test going into Big East play.

Even though Villanova is on break the students and alums should be able to fill the Pav with fanatics. Played in those familiar confines (as opposed to the Palestra) should provide enough advantages for the 'Cats to take this game with a double digit margin. Any closer and fans will have to wonder whether the team will be able to stand the rigors of their Big East schedule. A win against La Salle would gurantee that Nova's February 4^th meeting with St. Joseph's(PA) would decide the Big 5 championship and put Villanova in line to win an unprecedented 4^th straight City Series. Ken Pomeroy gives the nod (95%) to Villanova and projects a +21 point margin of victory.