According to Glockner...Villanova's Out of Conference Slate

What's In a Name?
Sport Illustrated columnist Andy Glockner joined a growing list of talkig heads who have come to dispise -- and publicly admonish offenders -- those BCS "powerhouses" who pad their win totals with out of conference cupcakes. Long a problem recognized by the NCAA come tournament selection time (whose 24 wins are "better"?) and fans who have to sit through a 21st century equivalent of Christians vs. Lions for nearly two monthes, the topic "Who Has the Softest Out of Conference Schedule?" has letely become a favorite preseason preview topic. While the Selection Committee uses RPI and SOS metrics to determine how challenged a particular team might have been during the season, Glockner puts together a quick list (sort of a "You know you've scheduled a cupcake if..." test) of names to be avoided when scheduling an opponent. According to Glockner, "...Generally speaking, your team has scheduled a too-easy home win if the opponent's name has:

1) Any type of punctuation mark (ampersand, apostrophe, hyphen, period)
2) Any in-state directional notation
3) Any State that is not actually named for a state
4) Any name of a religion in it
5) Any affiliation with the SWAC, which is 2-213 over the past six seasons vs. teams in BCS conferences...(and the MEAC corollary mentioned later in his article

While Glockner takes Cincinnati and Louisville to task and gives Syracuse and Connecticut (dis)Honorable Mentions, he passes on Villanova. The Nova Nation is notorious for giving the program a hard time about the Wildcats' OOC, but how does Villanova's schedule stand up to the "Glockner Test"?

The 'Cats Score...
Big 5 opponent Saint Joseph's makes the list due to their apostrophe, though truth be told the Hawks should be better this season than their 11-22 record from 2011. Villanova will travel to the Hagan rather than the Palestra, for this game, removing any "location" advantage the 'Cats might have expected. Villanova's first round opponent in the 76 Classic, UC Riverside qualifies under Rule #2 (directional notation, in this case "Riverside"). The balance of the 76 field (no team ranked in the top 25 RPI from 2011, four teams #36-#82 in 2011, three teams ranked #125-#175 in 2011) is a bit underwhelming as well, but given the loss of seniors Fisher, Stokes and Pena, the remaining six opponents in the field are hardly pushovers for this season's squad. But UC Riverside, ranked at #259 in 2011 (RPI) is clearly the lowest seed in the field. Other possible qualifiers include American. Though the Eagles were ranked (a not too shabby) #127 last season, would being named after a country (a people?) qualify under #3? Probably not. Some Nova fans might wonder if Temple is named after a religion (rule #4). I am going to go with a No on that, especially since the Owls are one of the teams favored to win the Atlantic-10 Conference this season and went to the NCAAs in 2011 (and advanced farther in the field than the Wildcats).

Glockner's Score...
With an apostrophe school (that they take on the road) coupled with an assigned "directional" opponent, Villanova's OOC would seem to relatively cupcake-free. Long time Big 5 fans know that the 'Cats have had their way lately with La Salle and Penn, and that the presence of Boston University on the schedule was a nod to since-departed former Assistant Coach Pat Chambers (look for Penn State next season?), but those three, along with Temple and Saint Joseph's, were scheduled for reasons not related to roughage (traditions and Villanova family ties, etc.). Given the Wildcats return 44% of the minutes and 43% of the points scored from 2011, the slate of OOC opponents assembled will most likely yield two -- probably more -- losses going into conference play.

Oh Canada! -- A Look at Saint Louis' Exhibition Tour

The Billikens' Northern Country Sojourn
Coach Rick Majerus decided to cash in his foreign tour chip on a six day (August 22 - 27), five game tour of Ontario Province, Canada. The Billikens took benefit of the NCAA-sanctioned 10 days of off season practice to prepare for the tour, conducting 15 full-team practices on 10 separate days between August 1 and August 19. The Saint Louis Men's basketball website did post box scores for three of the five games, along with write-ups/recaps for virtually every game. Unfortunately those were pulled down at some point on September 1. I located a box score of the uncompleted game, the Billikens' fourth game, (their first game) against the Carleton University Ravens, on the Carleton University website. St. Louis compiled a 3-2 record for the five games, routing Windsor University (98-57), the University of Western Ontario (88-59) and the University of Ottawa Gee-Gees (80-61) before falling twice to Carleton University 80-56 and 78-73 on successive nights. While the Canadian teams that make up the CIS have been variously described as comparable to Division 2 or Division 3 NCAA teams, CIS Hoops blogger Marc Wacyk wrote a background piece for vbtn last September, which suggested the top CIS schools were probably comparable to mid-level Division 1 schools. The Carleton Ravens team that beat Saint Louis twice logged a 34-1 record last season on route to their seventh CIS Championship in the last nine years, and would probably rank somewhere in the #120-#200 range in the RPI. The Ravens were "fully stocked" for the Billikens, by the way, having the services of 6-6 guard Cole Hobin and 6-8 forward Tyson Hynes, both of whom played for the Silver medalist Canadian WUG team in China earlier in the month. Those were two players not available to Raven Coach Dave Smart when Carleton played St. Louis' conference mate La Salle back on August 9. I compiled the box scores to develop an "possess-based overview" of the tour...

						FTA
	Pace	PPP	eFG%	OR%	TOV%	FGA	PPWS
Offense	66.8	1.08	56.9	29.3	21.3	31.7	1.15
Defense		1.00	57.3	19.5	25.6	40.6	1.22

Note the data includes box scores from four of the five games. Saint Louis' record for those four games was 2-2. The pace is a bit deceptive as the Bills and their opponents logged 73 (Windsor), 65 (Ottawa), 64 (Carleton) and 64 (Carleton) -- adjusted for a 40 minute game -- in the four games. The pace in the last three games suggests the Bills were rounding into form for the season, as Majerus-coached teams are typically among the lowest 15% in Division 1. PPP is short for points per possession, an estimate (derived from "points scored/possession") of the possession-based rate at which the team scored or allowed, points. Explanations for the other stats can be found here on Pomeroy's explanation for his Team Pages. Look for his explanation for Oliver's Four Factors.

Mid-season Form?
Keeping in mind these were exhibition games, some of the numbers suggest St. Louis is farther along than they have been at the start of practice the past few seasons. If the pace suggests the team is settling into the deliberate offensive rhythm Coach Majerus prefers, the offensive production (1.08 ppp) has to be gratifying as well. Billiken teams since Majerus' arrival have been offensively challenged, frequently posting offensive ratings (ppp *100) of less than 100. In the team's best season offensively, 2009, they registered an Offensive Rating of 100.1. Shot efficiency, and Points per Weighted Shot (PPWS) indicate the team converts when they are able to get off an attempt. Of the other offensive stats, turnover rate (TOR%) is the most troubling. St. Louis, with a possession rate in the low 60s cannot turnover one-in-five possessions and continue to convert in a relatively efficient (>1.00 ppp) manner. Controlling turnovers will no doubt make the Fall Practice "To Do List" (second only to shot defense -- check out the eFG% under defense).

A glance at the defensive numbers suggests there is more work to do on that side of the ball. Especially troubling is the possession rate (1.00), the shot efficiency and PPWS, all of which suggest an uncharacteristically porous defense. The Billikens under Majerus have been "defense first" teams (typically posting defensive ratings in the 90.8 - 98.2 range -- about 0.91 - 0.98 points per possession) that limit opponents' scoring by closing out on the shooter, limiting second chance opportunities (OR%) and keeping opponents off the line.

A Look at the Players
Compiling stats for the individual players may be able to give us a sense of where the Billikens' offense will come from in 2012...

									FTA
	Min%	Poss%	Shot%	ORtg	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	TOV%	FGA
Mitchell	46.6	27.4	24.5	108.8	76.9	1.56	2.8	28.0	7.7
McCall	67.2	26.6	26.8	116.9	64.6	1.34	1.3	10.0	31.7
Loe	43.6	25.2	26.2	68.0	28.8	0.68	10.0	6.5	15.4
Jett	45.4	24.6	19.3	104.5	52.5	1.17	1.9	16.0	60.0
Conklin	45.4	23.8	20.3	92.5	61.9	1.21	7.6	23.1	38.1
Evans	63.0	23.3	19.5	100.1	50.0	1.11	6.9	21.9	39.3
Ellis	57.5	22.1	23.6	102.2	59.7	1.17	7.5	8.4	22.6
Remekun	38.7	17.4	11.3	103.4	60.0	1.25	11.2	21.1	110.0
Manning	26.6	15.7	11.5	101.1	28.6	0.94	9.8	0.0	142.9
Barnett	55.7	15.5	14.2	65.5	33.3	0.69	1.6	16.6	11.1
Glaze	10.3	6.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.00	0.0	0.0	0.0

Kyle Cassity, Jimmy Remke and Emmanuel Tselentakis logged no minutes on the trip. Brian Daly saw less than a minute in the last game (versus Carleton). The players are presented in order by the percentage of the possessions they took when they were on the court, which should give us an indication of each squad member's impact on the offense and game. The minutes played (Min%) is a secondary consideration.

Kwamain Mitchell showed the rust accumulated by a season's inactivity (see his turnover rate and possession rate, both are too high), but with more play he will again be a force in Atlantic-10 conference play. The red shirt junior was injured in the first Carleton game (which led to the game being called at the 36+ minute mark) and did not play in the fifth game. A follow up report indicated no fractures were detected in a post game examination in an Ottawa hospital. Follow up evaluations are expected. The possession and shot rates suggest St. Louis' offense will be initiated and driven by the back court (Mitchell, Mike McCall, Jordair Jett and A-10 ROY Dwayne Evans) with help from the wings (Cody Ellis and Brian Conklin). Among the front court/low post players Rob Loe was active, but plagued by horrible shooting run (6-26 ovreall, 3-13 on three's and an identical 3-13 for two point attempts) negated his offensive board work. John Manning and Cory Ramekun, the balance of the front court contingent, played limited roles in the offense (see Poss% and Shot%). Manning compensated for some horrible shooting by getting to the line (see his FTA/FGA), while Remekun posted high conversion rates (and the ability to get to the line to finish) in a limited offensive role. Both showed offensive rebounding ability, a virtue that should persuade Majerus to use them throughout the season.

False Positives & Other Thoughts
These were exhibition games, and had St. Louis finished with a 5-0 record tempered expectations would still be in order. Teams that beat Carleton do not always go on to have great seasons (ask St. John's...), but teams that lose to Carleton tend to struggle (see Illinois in 2008 among others...). That is the background we need to use when evaluating St. Louis' two losses to Carleton. Though the Bills put forth a better effort in the second game (1.07 ppp vs. 1.12 ppp for the Ravens), they still lost by five, 73-78. The second cautionary note (third if you count Kwamain Mitchell's injury in the first Carleton game) is defense. Majerus-coached teams do not give up points, but this Bills team ceded more than 1.00 ppp in both Carleton losses, and 0.93 to the Gee-Gees in game three. The team will have to do better to have the kind of season that will warrent post season consideration. Look for St. Louis to follow a traditional Majerus trajectory -- get better as the season progresses. If SI's Andy Glockner's survey of Luck is correct, 2012 is the season Billiken fans have been looking forward to ever since Majerus took the helm.

Big East Previews -- Links & Thoughts

Links...
Pico Dulce over at the east coast bias blog conducted his second roundtable of the 2011 season, graciously allowing all of the participating bloggers (there were about 19 of us, at least one from every Big East team...) to repudiate our earlier projections and rewrite history based on the OOC results so far. Pico asked about each blogger's team, the surprise team(s) so far, the disappointing team(s) through this point in the OOC and which players were exceeding expectations and which were not and how the order of finish in conference play. He was kind enough to compile the results and organize a series of posts...
Part 1 -- Team Expectations
Part 2 -- Surprise Team
Part 3 -- Most Disappointing Team
Part 4 -- Players Who Surprise; Players Who Disappoint
Part 5 -- A Revised(?) Order of Finish
The answers were very interesting and worth the time it takes to read through.


Brian Lerner over at the Hoya Prospectus blog published an offense/defense aerial of the conference on the eve of conference play along with a few observations on the comparative efficiencies so far. In addition Brian, in an effort to assess the home/away schedules through the front end of conference play, compiled a rough estimate of strength of schedule. Brian's Big East Preview is a must-read for those who want some context for the first month of play.

Luke Winn of Sports Illustrated reworked his annual "Warning List of Pretenders and Contenders". A compilation not limited to Big East teams, but Winn's premise and conclusions are always a conversation starter, especially when the team you love is identified as a pretender, a sentiment many in the Nova Nation remember from last season. Winn added an Andy Glockner-inspired metric, the Adjusted Scoring Margin, (a variant on John Gasaway's efficiency differential, except that Glockner then ranks the teams to identify the elite scoring margins, etc.) Big East teams mentioned in Winn's article include Connecticut (bad news), Notre Dame (maybe bad news), West Virginia (historical reference), Syracuse (good news) and Louisville (a sleeper). The good news for Villanova's faithful I guess is that no news is good news.


...and Thoughts
ECB Expectations -- The Pitt-UConn game last night (Monday) did not refute the Huskies' progress this season, but it does point to the weakness Luke Winn identified -- if UConn's offense is not on, their defense will probably not keep them in many games this season, and that is a departure from the best of the Connecticut teams. If ESPN's announcing crew dwelt long on Walker's scoring capabilities, they were slow to recognize and analyze UConn's lack of ball and shot distribution, especially at the end of the game, when an option #2 would have been greatly appreciated. I have Connecticut finishing somewhere between #9 and #12 in conference play. While UConn's 8-0 start, with wins over Michigan State and Kentucky are impressive and a #9-#12 finish strong hints at a losing record, I still believe this team's ceiling is about 0.500, which is pretty much where Pomeroy has them now. Winn summed up Notre Dame nicely too. If the Irish can put some defense on the floor they will be very good. The question has always been how much defense they will play.

ECB Surprise Players -- Given Cincinnati's success in the OOC, tabbing Cashmire Wright is no coincidence. The Bearcats have been in dire need of a distributing point guard, imagine had Wright been given the room/incentive to blossom last season. I am surprised Darius Odom-Johnson is struggling. While he appears to have his 2 point shot, his three point conversion is down, as are his assists.

Brian's Aerials -- One encouraging development this season has been Villanova's defensive development. A standard of the teams from 2005 through 2009 (with a few exceptions), the ability to disrupt what the opponent wants to do offensively is an important element if the team is to succeed. Compare Brian's aerials from 2008-09, 2009-10 and this season. This season's defense is farther along than either of the prior seasons. This is a promising development.