Atlantic 10 Tournament Efficiencies

A Tournament Grows in Brooklyn
The first tournament championship at the Barclay's Center concluded on Sunday as Saint Louis beat Virginia Commonwealth 62-57 and led five A-10 teams (Butler, La Salle, Saint Louis, Temple and VCU) into the NCAA tournament. Five bids (more than the ACC, SEC or ?) matches the conference's all-time high from the 1997 and 1998 tournaments -- the hey days of John Calipari and John Chaney. The format used this season brought the top 12 conference teams to a neutral site (the Barclay's Center) for four days of basketball. Seeds #5 through #12 paired off Thursday, with winners facing seeds #1 through #4 in Friday's quarter-finals. The four survivors (Butler vs. Saint Louis and Massachusetts vs. Virginia Commonwealth) played Saturday with the winners playing the Finals on Sunday.

By the Numbers
I decided to plot the possessions and offensive/defensive efficiencies (points per possession) for the 12 teams:

		Points		Poss	Efficiecies
Team	Gms	For	Agst	Gme	Off	Def	Diff
Saint Louis	3	201	168	69	0.971	0.812	0.159
VCU	3	210	203	71	0.991	0.958	0.033
Butler	3	198	192	66	1.000	0.970	0.030
Massachusetts	3	218	217	73	0.995	0.991	0.005
Saint Joseph's	2	137	139	62	1.114	1.130	-0.016
Xavier	1	57	58	52	1.096	1.115	-0.019
George Washington	1	72	77	74	0.973	1.041	-0.068
Temple	1	74	79	70	1.057	1.129	-0.071
Richmond	1	63	68	57	1.105	1.193	-0.088
Charlotte	2	123	135	64	0.961	1.055	-0.094
Dayton	1	67	73	64	1.047	1.141	-0.094
La Salle	1	58	69	64	0.906	1.078	-0.172

The sample is far too small for conclusions, but there are a few things that jumped out:

1. Defense Prevailed -- the Billikens' offense was uneven and not partcularly efficient as they generated 1.04 points per possession versus Charlotte Friday and a low of 0.939 versus VCU on Sunday, but their defense was solid throughout the three game stretch. The same could be noted for VCU, Butler and Massachusetts, the four teams to advance to the semi-finals.
2. Butler showed some offense -- The Bulldogs had a shootout with Dayton on Thursday as both teams posted offensive efficiencies of 1.14 and 1.05 respectively (Dayton's offensive efficiency is Butler's defensive efficiency). Brad Stevens' squad lowered their defensive efficiency below the 1.00 mark in their next two games, though their offense declined slightly versus La Salle as well. Fatigue played a role perhaps, as their outing versus eventual winner Saint Louis saw the Bulldogs' productively crater at 0.800 points per possession, well below their two +1.0 outings. If Rotnei Clarke can get some rest between games and freshman Kellen Dunham has any gas left in the tank (and Andrew Smith can stay out of foul trouble and...) the Bulldogs are poised for a run to the second weekend (at least).
3. One game samples can't tell us much -- but La Salle's showing gives me pause. Temple, (NCAA) bid in hand ran into a very motivated Chaz Williams-led Massachusetts squad, but the Explorers served up a very uncompetitive offering versus a Butler squad that featured an overworked Rotnei Clarke. Dr. John Giannini's game plan may have been to run Clarke all over the arena, but after competing for the first half, La Salle seemed content to hang on the perimeter and chuck threes. The Explorers are, at best mediocre two point defenders, which may work to their advantage versus their first NCAA opponent, Boise State. Or it may not.
4. UMass' showing was strong if unsuccessful -- the Minutemen, especially senior guard Chaz Williams, were motivated to run the table and grab the A-10's automatic bid, but they clearly ran out of gas in their third game (in three days) versus VCU. Notable that they held the Rams to miserly 0.947 points per possession in a losing effort Saturday afternoon. After posting >1.0 points per possession against George Washington and Temple, coach Derek Kellogg's squad collapsed under VCU's pressure. If they can avoid a first round letdown in the NIT, UMass should be strong and experienced enough to duplicate their 2012 NIT run, get back to Madison Square Garden and allow Williams to close out his career on a winning note.

VCU to Wreak HAVOC in Philadelphia?

The End of a Most Irregular Season
The Media Day buzz was the unusual strength of the Atlantic 10 and the possibilities for at least five (if not more) bids to the NCAA. Charlotte and charter member Temple would take their curtain calls as Butler and Virginia Commonwealth took the measure of their new conference and their future conference mates. What a difference 10 weeks makes. Temple departs to an athletic association that only recently settled on American 12 as their new brand, a shell of the former Big East. The Catholic 7 (nee Big East), having stripped the American 12 of their last vestages of basketball legitimacy, borrow a leaf from the ACC and appear to have raided the Atlantic 10 of two of their more better basketball members...if rumors are to be believed. The conference maker was clearly thinking TV Storyline when he made the last game of the regular season and matchup between the best of the two departing and entering teams. Hosted by the departing team of course.

Does Temple Need this More Than Virginia Commonwealth?
Yes. Like their City Series Mates, the Owls are at the tailend of a roller coaster season that has three of Philadelphia's Big 5 on everyone's "Last Eight" (In or Out) List. Flattened by Duke on a neutral court, they went on to take a baffling loss to Canisius (at home no less) before they bounced back with a win over then #3 Syracuse. They opened their conference schedule with a loss to Xavier and played 0.500 ball in conference before a second baffling (and truly damaging) home loss to Duquesne seemed to get them focused. No more margin for error, the Owls have rattled off six straight to put themselves back on the NCAA bubble and in the hunt for a #3 seed to the Atlantic 10 Tournament next weekend (the scnearios are complicated, see below).

How VCU Can Lose This Game
I am heading down to Philadelphia to cover the Virginia Commonwealth - Temple game tomorrow for another publication, and those who tune in (12:00 noon CBS) might want to keep track of Temple's turnovers. I know I will. Virginia Commonwealth's HAVOC defense works to force turnovers, and the Rams tend to win when the HAVOC is effective. The Rams the best turnover rate in Division I (29.1%) and in Atlantic 10 conference games (about 25%). Following the adage "offense flows from defense", the Rams' ability to convert at the offensive end tends to follow that defensive turnover rate. When they don't force turnovers their shot conversion rate tends to suffer. VCU is 7-5 in the twelve games where their offensive eFG% is less than 50%. But more tellingly, if they cannot force turnovers they tend to lose outright. The Rams are 3-6 in games when their opponents lose less than 25% of their possessions. That includes every loss VCU has taken so far this season, with six of those games coming away from Verizon Wireless Arena (their home court). The Owls tend to value the ball/their possessions, logging the third lowest turnover rate in the conference. But the Owls also do not seem bothered when they do have a relatively sloppy game, as they are 6-0 when they lose 20% or more of their possessions on turnovers (they have never turned over 25% or more of their possessions). The Owls win when their conversion rate (eFG%) is 50.0% or better. The Rans have allowed 50% or better in 15 of their games this season, half of their outings. Stats were gathered from Ken Pomeroy's website. Pomeroy by the way, favors the Rams in this one.

Sorting Out the Seeds
Saint Louis' win over La Salle means the Billikens can do no worse than a tie (with VCU) for the regular season title and a #1 seed in Brooklyn. Virginia Commonwealth gets the #2 seed win or lose versus Temple, with La Salle's seed (#3 or #4) left to the result of the Temple/VCU game. Should Temple beat VCU, the Owls end up in a at least a two way tie with La Salle and a threeway tie should Butler beat Xavier tonight. Tie breakers -- both two with La Salle and three with La Salle and Butler -- favor Temple by virtue of their win over Saint Louis (three way). La Salle would take the #4 seed and Butler plays Thursday with the #5.

Signs of the Offseason 2011-06 -- Conference Realignment: Sunday Afternoon in Washington

They Were Not There for the Fall Foliage
The Hartford Courant sports writer Dom Amore has been sending out tweets since 10:00 am this morning about the Big East President's meeting in Washington. After a fortnight that started with the SEC and Texas A∓M formalizing their new relationship and rumors surrounding the two Oklahoma schools, along with Texas and Texas Tech in negotiations with the Pac-12 conference, the conference realignment shifted dramatically east last weekend with the simultaneous announcements by the Atlantic Coast Conference, Pittsburgh and Syracuse that the Panthers and Orange had applied to and been accepted by the ACC for full membership. The conference, staggered by the exit of a second charter member along with a 30 year, multiple conference title holder in basketball tried an initial, football members only meeting in New York City. That the Tuesday night meeting ended in chaos and acrimony strengthened a feeling throughout Division 1 athletics that the conference was taking a last gasp as a player in the BCS football mix. Amore reported (tweeted) that the conference meeting broke up after the projected 3:00 pm deadline. He added the following tweets as part of a post meeting press conference with Big East Commissioner John Marinatto....

1. West Virginia's President did not storm out, as had been rumored around 2pm.
2. BE Presidents voted unanimously to pursue discussions with schools that have expressed interest in joining.
3. Reference to football membership -- "military academies fit the profile".
4. UConn's President Susan Herbst was "terrific in the meeting" and promised to work to strengthen the conference.
5. Presidents will consider bylaws changes to "strengthen the conference" -- up the exit fees.
6. Texas Christian University's President attended and reaffirmed their intent to join the conference next season. According to Commissioner Marinatto, TCU "never wavered" during a very stressful week.

As an observation Amore added that Marinetto apparently felt this was a more positive meeting than the one Tuesday in NYC. "The shock has worn off". Amore followed wth a blog post that indicated the focus for new members will be football playing schools (membership not clear), with a profile that values "high academic standards and strong athletic performance,".

What About Villanova?!
The tweets and Commissioner Marinatto's comments suggest that no invitations were extended today. This leaves fans of Villanova, Temple, East Carolina, Central Florida and Memphis in something of a fog. The Big East Conference issued an official press release shortly after Commissioner Marinatto's press conference ended. Interesting to note that the Presidents were unanimous in authorizing "the Commissioner to aggressively pursue discussions with a select number of institutions that have indicated a strong interest in joining the BIG EAST Conference..." but were not unanimous about "...considering changes to the Conference’s governing bylaws to further solidify the membership of the Conference...". A strong ongoing commitment to the conference is crucial as the conference negotiates with the Air Force and Navy about football-only membership. Those two, rumored to be close to throwing in with the Big East in the days before Syracuse and Pittsburgh defected, were said to be wavering about a membership invitation due to the chaos of the past week. Hopefully the wording will give Commissioner Marinatto the authority to push ahead and successfully close out negotiations with the service academies while working through applications submitted by other institutions.

According to Glockner...Villanova's Out of Conference Slate

What's In a Name?
Sport Illustrated columnist Andy Glockner joined a growing list of talkig heads who have come to dispise -- and publicly admonish offenders -- those BCS "powerhouses" who pad their win totals with out of conference cupcakes. Long a problem recognized by the NCAA come tournament selection time (whose 24 wins are "better"?) and fans who have to sit through a 21st century equivalent of Christians vs. Lions for nearly two monthes, the topic "Who Has the Softest Out of Conference Schedule?" has letely become a favorite preseason preview topic. While the Selection Committee uses RPI and SOS metrics to determine how challenged a particular team might have been during the season, Glockner puts together a quick list (sort of a "You know you've scheduled a cupcake if..." test) of names to be avoided when scheduling an opponent. According to Glockner, "...Generally speaking, your team has scheduled a too-easy home win if the opponent's name has:

1) Any type of punctuation mark (ampersand, apostrophe, hyphen, period)
2) Any in-state directional notation
3) Any State that is not actually named for a state
4) Any name of a religion in it
5) Any affiliation with the SWAC, which is 2-213 over the past six seasons vs. teams in BCS conferences...(and the MEAC corollary mentioned later in his article

While Glockner takes Cincinnati and Louisville to task and gives Syracuse and Connecticut (dis)Honorable Mentions, he passes on Villanova. The Nova Nation is notorious for giving the program a hard time about the Wildcats' OOC, but how does Villanova's schedule stand up to the "Glockner Test"?

The 'Cats Score...
Big 5 opponent Saint Joseph's makes the list due to their apostrophe, though truth be told the Hawks should be better this season than their 11-22 record from 2011. Villanova will travel to the Hagan rather than the Palestra, for this game, removing any "location" advantage the 'Cats might have expected. Villanova's first round opponent in the 76 Classic, UC Riverside qualifies under Rule #2 (directional notation, in this case "Riverside"). The balance of the 76 field (no team ranked in the top 25 RPI from 2011, four teams #36-#82 in 2011, three teams ranked #125-#175 in 2011) is a bit underwhelming as well, but given the loss of seniors Fisher, Stokes and Pena, the remaining six opponents in the field are hardly pushovers for this season's squad. But UC Riverside, ranked at #259 in 2011 (RPI) is clearly the lowest seed in the field. Other possible qualifiers include American. Though the Eagles were ranked (a not too shabby) #127 last season, would being named after a country (a people?) qualify under #3? Probably not. Some Nova fans might wonder if Temple is named after a religion (rule #4). I am going to go with a No on that, especially since the Owls are one of the teams favored to win the Atlantic-10 Conference this season and went to the NCAAs in 2011 (and advanced farther in the field than the Wildcats).

Glockner's Score...
With an apostrophe school (that they take on the road) coupled with an assigned "directional" opponent, Villanova's OOC would seem to relatively cupcake-free. Long time Big 5 fans know that the 'Cats have had their way lately with La Salle and Penn, and that the presence of Boston University on the schedule was a nod to since-departed former Assistant Coach Pat Chambers (look for Penn State next season?), but those three, along with Temple and Saint Joseph's, were scheduled for reasons not related to roughage (traditions and Villanova family ties, etc.). Given the Wildcats return 44% of the minutes and 43% of the points scored from 2011, the slate of OOC opponents assembled will most likely yield two -- probably more -- losses going into conference play.

Dove Entrails & Tea Leaves -- Pythagoreas, Minutes and Points in the A-10

The Problem with Crystal Balls
As an expression (for the sake of clarety...), the process of determining how a team will do in the next season looks something like this...

How Team A will do this season = How Team A did last season - Team A players lost + Team A players gained + Team A intangibles

The Pythagorean Winning Percentage provides one of the best measures of how a team did in previous seasons. We can use a deductive approach to analyzing how the departed players will affect the next squad by looking at who is coming back, and what they bring. Incorporating new players into the mix is about the toughest part of the process...next to accurately assessing the impact of the intangibles of course. Taking a look at the first two elements (how Team A did and who Team A will bring back) is the start of the process, and once I have those two elements,it is easier to see how the last two could affect their performance and standing next season. Comparing each teams overall Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) against the average of the conference (about 54.5, the Atlantic 10 is a very good conference), then doing the same for returning minutes (based on rosters through early August) and plotting the differences to a grid provides a clear indication of where each team sits compared to the rest of the conference. I have been partial to returning minutes because I think it provides a good sense of the relative maturity of different squads, but returning points has value, and so I decided to plot a second grid with points in place of minutes, as those who check out the second chart below. Can points tell us something that minutes might not? Compare Xavier's position in the tables below...

The X-axis returning percentage of minutes (above) and returning percentage of points (below). PWP is the Y-axis. For the PWP/Returning Minutes chart above, the axis intersect at (54.5,66.4), while for the PWP/Returning Points chart below, the intersection is (54.5,66.7).

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A quick look and the two seem to virtually identical. A closer look uncovers a few differences worth exploring.

No Surprises Here
Temple and (sometimes) Xavier plot to the (upper left) above average quadrant for returning points and for the Musketeers, just below the average line for minutes returned (> average PWP, < average returning minutes), but the Muskies jump above the X-axis (average of returning scoring) in the second table -- a quick visual on the "value of Tu Holloway". For the past three seasons these two programs have turned the A-10 regular season into a duet. Those concerned about the X-men's minutes (ie experience) next season can relax, the program has learned to level the year-to-year ebb and flow of talent through the judicious application of red shirts and transfer eligibility rules. Coach Mack has Brad Releford, a rising junior sniper, Justin Martin, a red shirt (partial qualifier) freshman and Travis Taylor (transfer from Monmouth University) in reserve from last season, ready to step into the rotation for 2012. And even as I write, Isaiah Philmore, a transfer from Towson, will practice this season and be ready to step in 2013. Excellent programs can do that.

Coach Dunphy has not established that cushion for his Owl program, but every season a rotations/role player seems to step up and have a great year. Juan Fernandez and Ryan Brooks blossomed in 2010, while Scootie Randall and Khalif Wyatt did the same in 2011.

Testing Common Wisdom
Mature/experienced teams improve over their prior performances. That saw will be tested in 2012 as 2011 bottom-dwellers Fordham and Charlotte return squads that lost a combined 25 games in conference competition last season. Charlotte's fall from grace in 2011 (the 49ers returned higher-than-average minutes from a squad that posted a greater-than-average PWP from 2010) can be attributed to the education of rookie coach Alan Major. The transition from assistant to head coach, especially when a change of program is part of the transiton, can be bumpy -- Dayton fans take note. Coach Major brings in a large class rookie this season, which may be counter productive when installing new offensive/defensive systems. Coach Tom Pecora's Fordham squad showed improvement in his first season at Rose Hill, but the squad needs an infusion of A-10 level talent to establish momentum. Will he find them among the six new faces (freshmen) coming in for 2012?

For Saint Louis, Saint Joseph's, George Washington and St. Bonaventure however, the old saw may work out in 2012. Coach Mark Schmidt put the Bonnies on an upward trajectry when he took over in 2008. A-10 Player of the Year candidate Andrew Nicholson is a major reason, but Coach Schmidt has surrounded him with solid talent. Coach Mike Lonergan's hire last April places George Washington in a position similar to Charlotte's in 2011; a new coach taking charge of an experienced squad. Having seven years at the helm of Vermont gives Coach Lonergan an advantage the Major did not have however. Early season games against Syracuse, Georgia, UAB and Kansas State should give fans a good idea of where the program stands going into conference play. Coach Phil Martelli brought in a consensus conference-best class in 2011. Better yet, the class appears to be headed back to Hawk Hill for 2012 along with most of the eligible returnees, which ought to break Saint Joseph's two year run of 20 game losing seasons. Coach Rick Majerus' four year tenure at Saint Louis has been marked with a revolving door roster and a badly timed setback in 2011. 2012 should mark a substantial turnaround for the Billikens as they return nearly all of their (young) 2011 roster and suspended clutch guard Kwamain Mitchell. Should Coach Majerus' health hold up, the Billikens should have a hand in the conference race in 2012 and beyond.

When anticipating who would plot to the (lower left) "below average" on both factors quadrant, I thought the two last place teams, Charlotte and Fordham would be the strongest candidates. Both, it turns out, return more than average for minutes and points next season. The teams that did plot to the lower left quadrant are La Salle and Massachusetts, the teams that finished #9 and #10 respectively in 2011 conference play. The Explorers had a good balance of senior leadership and young talent, but was plagued with inconsistent play throughout the season. Some changes to the roster (especially when the freshman backcourt rotation -- Tyreek Duren, Sam Mills and Cole Stefan stay for another season) may benefit La Salle's prospects in 2012 (not to mention Dr. Giannini's job security).

For UMass however, the problem is inherent to the Dribble Drive Motion offensive system implemented by Coach Derek Kellogg. The DDM relies on a dynamic lead guard to either score via penetration or (when the situation calls for it...) get the ball to someone who can. The system needs reliable secondary scorers who can catch and and penetrate or shoot from the outside (when needed) and athletic front court players who can rebound and put back should the shooter's attempt miss. If the squad (especially that lead guard) not recognize and exploit/convert the scoring opportunities, the principal ball handler becomes a volume scorer. Since Gary Forbes' senior season (2008 -- Travis Ford's last as Coach in Amherst), Kellogg's lead guards (Ricky Harris and Anthony Gurley) typically take 30% or more of the possessions and shots, but the offense does not convert those possessions efficiently enough to win consistently. The problem in 2011 is that the scoring alternatives, Jesse Morgan and Freddie Riley had lower offensive (points per possession) ratings than Gurley. Those two and Chaz Williams, a 5-9 Hofstra transfer, will be next up as lead guard/scorer in the system.

Programs versus Teams
2012 should provide an opportunity to see which Coach Chris Mooney has built at Richmond during his tenure. The Spiders graduated a substantial percentage of their scoring and minutes over the past two seasons, but have a deep roster from which to draw. If the rotation players step forward (as Justing Harper did in 2011), the team should not take a large step back from their performance over the past two seasons. Can the same be said for Duquesne and Rhode Island, two other programs that played to the conference tournament quarter finals in 2011? The Runnin' Rams' Coach Jim Baron has had to scramble the past few off seasons to fill out his roster. Though he had early commitments, all too often they did not make it to campus, and the Rhode Island mentor had to rummage through JUCO lists and AAU rosters going late into July. This past season the needs were identified, those expected to return -- Akeem Richmond excepted -- will and the signees are all coming in as well. Those stitched together rosters produced three consecutive post season runs, but Coach Baron has never had so small a returning nucleus to start the season. Though transfers Billy Baron (the coach's son) and Andre Malone won't be available until after the fall semester, early season games at Texas and with regional rivals Boston College and Providence might provide a hing about Rhode Island's fortunes in 2012. Duquesne's Coach Ron Everhart has adjusted his gameplan to exploit the advantages a smaller, more mobile squad can provide. The frantic pace (#13 in D1 per Ken Pomeroy) caught unsuspecting teams off guard which, enabled the Dukes to earn a bye bid to the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament and a post season spot in the CBI field in 2011. Coach Everhart will have a couple of taller players to replace Damian Saunders and Bill Clark, but will they be as efficient?

Caveat Emptor
Consider that...
1. The rosters are still taking shape. In the past week La Salle fans learned that South Carolina transfer Ramone Galloway was granted a waiver to play immediately (headline announcement on the front page of the team's web site), while (not publicly acknowledged...) rising sophomore Cole Stefan left the program and the school. Some schools (Rhode Island for example) tend to delay announcements on academic probation. And injuries can strain resources (see Xavier and Temple early in 2011) or derail a season (La Salle in 2010).
2. Fans may have their favorites for preseason Rookie of the Year, but predicting the impact of any freshman is tricky, involving both talent and opportunity...with a large helping of luck.
3. Of the last five new conference coaches, Xavier's Chris Mack (hard to believe he will enter his third year as a head coach in 2012) has had the easiest path -- credit the solid program he inherited when Sean Miller moved on to Arizona. What can the struggles of Tom Pecora, a successful veteran coach charged with rebuilding Fordham and Alan Major, an Ohio State Assistant Coach whose first bite at the head coaching apple came at Charlotte suggest to us about Archie Miller and Mike Lonergan's first season at Dayton and George Washington respectively? Miller takes over a light roster and has to find bodies just to cover the next season. Combined with his lack of head coaching experience the Flyers will most likely struggle to match 2011's 7-9 conference mark. Lonergan, an experienced hand at Vermont, steps into a deeper and stronger roster. How drastically he moves the squad to his offensive and defensive systems and how hard he pushes the current roster to get there will probably influence how enthusiastically the roster responds.

Wash, Rinse, Repeat (pt 2) -- The 2012 Atlantic-10 Home and Away Slate

Flipping 2011 Home/Away Opponents
In addition to carrying the mirror opponents (home/away series opponents) from 2011, the Atlantic-10 schedule maker reversed the venues for the single game opponents. Charlotte visited Duquesne, Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, Saint Louis and Temple in 2011. The 49ers will host those teams as single game opponents in 2012. Does this balance their schedule over the two season period? Remember that virtually no teams return their entire rosters season-over-season. The average of returning minutes in the A-10 next season (to this point) is about 66%.

Home & Away According to Pythagoreas & Seed...
I decided to take the average of the home and away Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) -- conference games only -- for each team's set of opponents. I excluded mirror opponents (covered in the previous post) for this the compilation to focus on those match-ups that would not allow a return engagement (in the 2012 regular season). I also took the average A-10 conference tournament seed for each set of opponents, to determine if each team was facing an "average" set of opponents in the home or away setting -- the conference has 14 members, the "average seed" is 7.5...

	Non-Mirror Opps.
	Home		Away
Team	PWP	Seed	PWP	Seed
Charlotte	0.522	4.9	0.358	7.8
Dayton	0.341	7.4	0.531	6.8
Duquesne	0.319	9.3	0.614	6.6
Fordham	0.438	6.5	0.587	6.8
George Washington	0.526	7.3	0.565	8.5
La Salle	0.436	6.8	0.488	7.1
Massachusetts	0.334	9.3	0.711	6.3
Rhode Island	0.555	7.8	0.546	8.4
Richmond	0.370	9.1	0.710	7.4
Saint Joseph's	0.236	8.8	0.691	4.6
St. Bonaventure	0.538	6.8	0.555	8.5
Saint. Louis	0.477	5.5	0.379	7.9
Temple	0.557	7.9	0.553	9.5
Xavier	0.497	8.0	0.500	9.0
Avg.	0.439	7.5	0.556	7.5
Std.	0.099	1.3	0.103	1.2

As the table suggests, there is a sharp contrast in the PWPs among visiting teams and hosts. George Washington, Rhode Island, St. Boanventure and Temple appear to have the strongest slate of non-mirror opponents, and Temple looks as if their slate of road opponents may be marginally easier than their slate of visitors (though the Owls did catch a huge break on their mirror opponents). Looking over the PWPs for road games, it appears that Massachusetts, Richmond and Saint Joseph's have their work cut out for them. For the Minutemen and Spiders, this could be problematic, as the UMass returns 60% of their 2011 scoring (points) and Coach Chris Mooney's squad returns just over 31% of theirs.
Different Strategies for Different Circumstances
A common wisdom approach to scheduling strategy might want to schedule the stronger opponents into the home arena, thereby using the home court advantage to maximum effect, while taking the weaker opponents on the opponents' home court with the notion they could be beaten in either location. For teams whose objective is to break out of the conference's lower division (or cellar...) however a counter intuitive strategy might be the better choice. Hosting weaker opponents would maximize the chances of winning conference games, while conceding the road loss to the conference's stronger teams. Very few coaches would embrace a strategy that concedes losses even before the season even starts, but as a practical approach to accumulating wins, programs like Charlotte and Fordham have few options, at least until they rebuild their programs. How do the non-mirror match-ups compare when looking at those two different approaches?

Looking for Wins...Any Wins
Rookie Coach Archie Miller may have caught a break from the schedule maker. Dayton graduated All Conference forward Chris Wright, while also losing freshmen Juwan Staten (West Virginia) and Brandon Spearman (Indian Hills CC) to transfer. The depleted Flyers return 58.4% of their minutes and 58% of their scoring. Drawing hosting duties for Charlotte, George Washington, La Salle, Massachusetts and Rhode Island without having to return the favor. Rhode Island at this point, is in line to return less than 25% of their 2011 minutes in 2012. Miller should be able to post a winning home record among these five opponents. The seed versus PWP spread for the opponents visiting the UD Arena in 2012 is interesting, about average for seed, but a comparatively low road PWP. The spread suggests those teams did not travel well in 2011.

Richmond, like Rhode Island, will have only 40% of 2011's minutes available going into 2012, a (mirrors excluded) home slate of Dayton, Fordham, La Salle (again!), Massachusetts (ditto!) and Temple should help build some confidence (and post wins) for the Spiders of tomorrow. Their (non-mirror) road slate however, should be a bit more challenging -- Duquesne, Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, Saint Louis and Xavier. Should Coach Mooney's squad post a winning record versus those five, Richmond will be in a good position for post season consideration.

Massachusetts slumped at the end of their 2011 conference schedule, dropping their last regular season game to winless (in conference play) Fordham and then losing their A-10 first round game to Dayton. Lining up Charlotte, Fordham, Saint Louis, St. Bonaventure and Xavier for home dates should help to establish a winning home record in conference play. True as visitors the Minutemen will be hard pressed to win more than one game from their road slate -- Dayton, Duquesne, George Washington, Richmond and Temple -- but if they hosted those five would they win more than (say...) two?

Fordham's home slate -- Charlotte, Dayton, George Washington, La Salle and Xavier -- should provide the Rams with a few more winning opportunities than their road slate -- Duquesne, Massachusetts, Richmond, Saint Joseph's and Saint Louis. Returning a nucleus of Chris Gaston, Branden Frazier and Alberto Estwick provides Coach Tom Pecora with an opportunity to up Fordham's conference win total in 2012.

Making a Statement
St. Bonaventure has bettered their conference record in each of Coach Mark Schmidt's four seasons, finishing in the upper division 2011. With Andrew Nicholson a rising senior in 2012, the future maybe now, and the Bonnies drew a fairly balanced (in a PWP sense...) slate of (non-mirror) home and away opponents. Assembling a winning record at both home and on the road against those opponents would certainly serve notice the Bonnies are back, and probably put them in the conversation for a post season bid, preferably to a tournament whose name starts with an "N".

On paper George Washington appears ready to shop for more permanent digs in the A-10's upper division. Next season's (non-mirror) home and away slate seems fairly balanced per the average PWP (and note the average seed is consistent with the PWP). The question is whether new Coach Mike Lonergan can motivate the squad to perform in the face of a challenging road slate.

Temple drew the only slate that would fit the bill for an elite team -- face better teams (Dayton, Duquesne, George Washington, Massachusetts and Xavier) at home, lesser teams (Charlotte, Rhode Island, Richmond, St. Bonaventure and Saint Louis) on the road. The seed versus PWP contrast for the road opponents suggests that lineup, like George Washington's, were stronger in front of the home crowd than on the road.

Counter Programming?
On the heels of an unexpectedly good (slump at season's end excepted) season, Duquesne would probably have been better served with a stronger slate of visiting teams than Fordham, La Salle, Massachusetts, Richmond and Saint Joseph's. While there may be a measure of home crowd entertainment value in running up the score on Fordham or Massachusetts, but wide margins may (again?) obscure weaknesses in the Duke program.

Xavier drew a surprisingly balanced slate of single game opponents for both home (Fordham, George Washington, La Salle, Massachusetts and Temple) and the road (Duquesne, Rhode Island, Richmond, Saint Joseph's and St. Bonaventure). Note the home slate has an average seed within the standard deviation, while the road slate seed is just below the range established by the standard deviation (suggesting the Musketeers' hosts are better at home than on the road).

Caveat Emptor
Consider that...
1. The rosters are still taking shape -- at this point it appears that Saint Louis will return 92.8% of their minutes from the 2011 season (plus Kwamain Michell). Last June the Billikens were projected to return 82.7% of their minutes, but only 54% were on the roster when the season started. There are a variety of reasons why players, post NBA draft deadline, do not return to school, and every Atlantic-10 team has lost experienced minutes in June and later in the off season.
2. Timing can make a difference -- Duquesne ran up an 8-0 record through the first half of their 2011 A-10 slate against teams that finished the season with a collective 50-78 (0.391) conference record. Only two of those teams (Temple and George Washington) finished on the upside of 0.500 in their conference games.
3. Coaching changes can affect team dynamics, or not -- Charlotte's Alan Major had a rough rookie season as head coach, while rookie head coach Chris Mack's Xavier squad won the Atlantic-10 regular season title in 2010. George Washington's Coach Lonergan has six years of experience directing Vermont's program (and seven directing D3 Catholic University) before taking over at George Washington; the Colonials should show improvement over their 2011 conference record (health providing...). Dayton's Archie Miller, a long-time assistant, but looking at his first season in charge of a Division 1 program, may have problems matching departed coach Brian Gregory's 7-9 record.

Wash, Rinse, Repeat -- The 2012 Atlantic-10 Conference Pairs

The Flip Side of 2011
Though at least one fan blog hinted at the pairings for the 2012 Atlantic-10 Conference regular season back on June 1, the conference did not officially release the pairings until June 6. Rather than build the conference mirror opponents and home/away games from scratch for 2012 (or roughly based on the 2011 conference results), the schedulemaker apparently decided to keep the 2011 mirror opponents and flip each team's 2011 home and away opponents for 2012 -- Saint Louis played Fordham, George Washington, Richmond, St. Bonaventure and Temple on the road in 2011, so they will host those teams at Chaifetz Arena in 2012. Was this a backhanded attempt at a balanced (over a two year period) schedule? For those interested in the complete listing, visit the Conference announcement here.

Fair and Balances?
I had noted last June when looking over the Atlantic-10 conference pairings that a balanced schedule may be only one of many objectives a conference schedulemaker may have satisfy...and a lower priority objective at that. Since the conference kept the same mirror opponents for 2012 as 2011 for each team, I decided to take the average of the conference Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) for each team's mirros and compare them. Mirror games constitute 37.5% of each team's 16 game schedule. These pairings can provide a team with a big advantage (or a huge challange)...

	Mirror Opponents
	PWP	Team
Charlotte	0.735	GWU, Rich, XU
St. Louis	0.726	Day, Duq, XU
Dayton	0.724	Duq, SLU, XU
Saint Joseph's	0.670	Mass, Rich, TU
Fordham	0.612	URI, Bonas, TU
La Salle	0.582	GWU, Mass, TU
Duquesne	0.475	Day, Bonas, SLU
St. Bonaventure	0.453	Duq, Ford, URI
George Washington	0.438	Char, LSU, Rich
Xavier	0.380	Char, Day, SLU
Massachusetts	0.353	LSU, URI, SJU
Rhode Island	0.308	Ford, Mass, Bonas
Richmond	0.305	Char, GWU, SJU
Temple	0.208	Ford, LSU, SJU
Avg.	0.498
Std. Dev..	0.171

"Protecting" a rival clearly still holds for the coming season, as Xavier and Dayton will renew their in state rivalry, Temple will face both Big 5 rivals (La Salle and Saint Joseph's), while Massachusetts and Rhode Island will extend their regional (New England) rivalry with another home & away series this season. Travel appears to have played a role as well, as Charlotte, Richmond and George Washington have all managed another season with mirror games. Television match-ups, Xavier/Dayton aside, appears to be a minor consideration. Looking at the average of the PWPs, it may seem the schedule maker created a "balanced" set of mirrors conference-wide, the standard deviation (and a visual inspection of the list highest to lowest) would strongly suggest otherwise.

Notes & Observations
A blend of regional rivals may help Charlotte's travel budget, but George Washington was stronger than anticipated last season, and with new coach Mike Lonergan at the helm in place of the departed Karl Hobbs combined with the return of well regarded (but red shirted last season) Lasan Kromah, the Colonials should be an even tougher challange in 2012. The Spiders lost Kevin Anderson and Justin Harper (and Dan Geriot), but Coach Chris Mooney has a deep squad at Richmond, which suggests the 49ers will again post a losing record in these six games.

Duquesne and Xavier account for Dayton's high PWP average for 2011, but Coach Rick Majerus returns over 90% of the minutes from the Bills' 2011 squad, and also bring back suspended Kwamain Mitchell, an All-Conference player in 2010. If Duquesne can regain their early 2011 momentum, Dayton may be hard pressed to come away from that six game set with even one win.
Xavier's mirrors seem to be a good balance of rivals and travel, but Saint Louis may be a tougher opponent this time around.

St. Bonaventure may benefit from a down year at Rhode Island and continued slow progress at Fordham. Like Xavier, the Bonnies appear to have drawn a traditional rivals schedule (Fordham and Duquesne) with travel (Rhode Island) as a consideration too. Coach Schmidt's squad went 4-2 against those three in 2011, and, given the 25% returning minutes at Kingston in 2012, may do even better in 2012.

Massachusetts, like St. Bonaventure, earned a 4-2 record against their mirror opponents in 2011, but if Saint Joseph's, the beneficiary of a an above average percentage of returning minutes (69%), improves as anticipated, Coach Derek Kellogg may be pressed to repeat that record in 2012. For a coach already feeling a bit of heat, that may well be the tipping point in his tenure.

Coach Jim Baron will see only 24% of his 2011 minutes return for 2012, so even with a rather light set of mirror opponents, the Runnin' Rams may take a step back from their 2011 3-3 mirror record.

Temple's 6-0 mirror record last season was due, in large measure, to the weakness of their three opponents who managed a collective 11-37 record in conference play last season. Collectively Fordham, La Salle and Saint Joseph's will absolutely improve their record next season, but expect Coach Fran Dunphy's squad to post another 6-0 record versus those three. That is a huge advantage when putting together a conference record.

Top Fifteen Big 5 Value Add Returning Players

The City Series
Pulling out the five Division 1 schools that make up the Big 5 from the spreadsheet sent to me by from Cracked Sidewalks poster bamamarquettefan1, I was able to sort them down to find the 15 returning players with the highest Value Add rating. I doubt the top five are next season's All-Big 5 First Team (they are good players, but Big 5 tradition mitigates against four players from the same team -- even a Final Four team -- being named to the first team...), the pool is large enough to suggest most of the First and Second All-Big 5 Teams will probably come from the list below. From highest to lowest...

			KenPom		Value
Name	College	Rank	ORtg	DRtg	Off Add	Def Sub	Total
K Wyatt	Temple	107	114.1	95.4	2.54%	-1.72%	4.26%
R Moore	Temple	115	105.2	96.8	2.43%	-1.64%	4.07%
S Randall	Temple	122	122.7	97.0	2.86%	-1.08%	3.94%
Galloway	St. Joseph's	126	113.9	108.6	3.86%	0.00%	3.86%
Jefferson	Temple	182	105.0	95.7	1.11%	-2.01%	3.12%
Z Rosen	Pennsylvania	212	110.8	106.3	2.93%	0.00%	2.93%
M Yarou	Villanova	222	107.0	97.2	1.93%	-0.96%	2.89%
C Jones	St. Joseph's	237	104.1	111.0	2.78%	0.00%	2.78%
M Wayns	Villanova	252	103.8	99.1	2.67%	0.00%	2.67%
M Eric	Temple	362	101.0	94.5	0.56%	-1.50%	2.06%
R Roberts	St. Joseph's	648	104.4	110.0	1.15%	0.00%	1.15%
D Cheek	Villanova	654	100.6	98.0	0.75%	-0.40%	1.15%
Fernandez	Temple	710	96.8	98.0	0.46%	-0.58%	1.04%
T Duren	La Salle	717	102.7	108.7	1.02%	0.00%	1.02%
C Stefan	La Salle	837	117.1	110.7	0.81%	0.00%	0.81%

One number systems like Value Add (Sub) are valuable because they can, via rankings, promote discussion about players who might not easily come to mind when thinking "best" or "best 5 (15)". A list like this should stimulate discussion about the best players in Philadelphia, and given the ranking, I have spent a few days thinking about the players from Temple and Saint Joseph's going into next season. As a Villanova fan I would not swap Mouphtaou Yarou or Maalik Wayns for any of the players ranked above them in this list, but that four players from Temple are ranked #1, #2, #3 and #5 is a credit to Coach Fran Dunphy's ability to recruit to North Broad and rebuild the Owl program. While Coach Dunphy was recognized as a good program manager and game planner during his tenure at Penn, the whispers when he moved over as Coach John Chaney's successor were whether he could recruit players for a conference as competitive as the Atlantic-10. Temple's record over the past four seasons, coupled with a listing like this should silence those voices.

Observations...
1. That Khalif Wyatt made the top 12 is hardly surprising, after all he was honored as the Atlantic-10's Sixth Man in 2011; that he is the highest rated returning player however, did get my attention. Though I have followed Temple (and La Salle and St. Joseph's) with more interest over the past two seasons, I did not believe Wyatt was the impact player suggested by the ranking. Temple placed four players among the top five -- and from my time at the Atlantic-10 Tournament last March, I believe Scootie Randall's injury and absence from the tournament influenced Temple's inability to beat Richmond in the semi-final game. Ramone Moore was, unlike Wyatt, a regular rotation player (and starter) through the entire season.
2. Zach Rosen's spot on the list is no surprise at all. Health allowing, the senior should again make the First Team All-Ivy and All-Big 5. Having an opportunity to play a second season with fifth year senior Tyler Bernardini should give Penn the best backcourt in the Ivy League next season and one that will challenge the backcourts of the other Big 5 teams -- all five of the schools will boast sterling backcourts.
3. Langston Galloway, cited four times by the A-10 as Rookie of the Week and honored with a spot on that conference's All-Rookie Team certainly belongs on this list. For the curious, CJ Aiken, another rising sophomore from Hawk Hill, was ranked #16 on the list. Having a third rising sophomore, Ronald Roberts among the top 15 certainly bodes well for Coach Martelli's squad going into 2012.
4. La Salle's contribution to the top 15, Tyreke Duren and Cole Stefan are, like Galloway and Roberts, rising sophomores. Both are guards, suggesting that the competition for "best backcourt" in the City Series in 2012, will be very competitive. Note at Sam Mills, another guard, was ranked #25, behind two other returning Explorers, forward Devon White and wing Earl Pettis.

About the Defense -- Value (Sub)
A feature of the Value Add (Sub) system is that bamamarquettefan1 combined individual statistics -- steals, defensive rebounds & blocked shots -- with team-wide statistics (Ken Pomeroy's defensive rating, to create a defensive "value" -- Value (Sub) component that he calculated for each player ranked in his system. For those defensive elements for which no individual stats were available, he eleminated the individual defensive elements (shot blocks, steals, defensive rebounds, etc.) from each team's (Pomeroy's) defensive rating, allocated that remaining value (about 72% of the team's defensive rating) according to minutes played (Min% per Pomeroy) and then "added" the individual elements with that value to compute a Value (Sub) for each player. Unlike a plus/minus approach which tallies the points for and against for each time sequence a particular player is on the court (and by indirection assess offensive and defensive "value" by presence), this system relies heavily (about 72% of the weight of the "Sub" value) on the "team" element -- that part for which no direct stats are compiled. A number of the returning Big 5 players (seven in the top 15) contributed 0.0% beyond "normal" team defense, to their team. This was, according to bamamarquettefan1, is not unusual. Because the individual defensive stats -- defensive rebounding, steals and blocked shots (weighted in that order) -- are tallied and converted for each player, a player who contributes "below" his team's average for two categories (or even one if he is significantly below average for either defensive rebounding or steals) will compute to a 0.0% Value (Sub). Six of the seven players (Ronald Roberts excepted) are guards. Lacking defensive rebounding and blocked shots (traditionally not strong areas for backcourt and wing players), that should not surprise.

On Second Thought -- Plotting Trendlines for Atlantic 10 Teams (pt 4)

Conference Elites
The three teams discussed in this post were the teams that topped the Atlantic-10 Conference last season. The teams share a common trait -- their offfensive efficiency trendlines started above their defensive efficiency trendlines (they were winning games) throughout the season. Each team lost at least one game, but even when more than one conference game was lost, that team did not sustain a losing streak of more than one game. The conference standings/seeds for the Atlantic 10 Tournament with the featured teams highlighted:

	W	L	Pct.
Xavier	15	1	0.938
Temple	14	2	0.875
Richmond	13	3	0.813
Duquesne	10	6	0.625
George Washington	10	6	0.625
Rhode Island	9	7	0.563
St. Bonaventure	8	8	0.500
Dayton	7	9	0.438
Massachusetts	7	9	0.438
La Salle	6	10	0.375
St. Louis	6	10	0.375
Saint Joseph's	4	12	0.250
Charlotte	2	14	0.125
Fordham	1	15	0.063

As the standings above show, all three teams earned first round byes, appearing first in the quarter finals in Atlantic City. And after Atlantic City, all three earned NCAA bids.

Richmond

Kenny Anderson's last season was the Spiders' best yet

Senior guard Kevin Anderson may not have had the kind of individual season in 2011 that one might expect from the returning Conference Player of the Year of 2010 (indeed, the A-10's 2011 POY went to Tu Holloway), but the team results were decidedly better. It appeared, about 10 games into the conference schedule, that the Spiders were headed to a "crossover" (a slump), but avoided that turn and put on an impressive run to end the season. Note the steep decline in the defensive efficiency trendline from games 10 (George Washington) through 16 (Duquesne), that movement is especially positive given the emphasis on defense in the post season setting. The Spiders went on to eliminate Rhode Island, Temple and finally Dayton to win the Atlantic-10 Conference Tournament, and though they earned a lowly #12 seed in the NCAA field, they survived the first weekend (wins over Vanderbilt and Morehead State) and ran to the Sweet Sixteen before being eliminated by Kansas in the Southwest Region. Rolling up a 13-2 record over their last 15 games, Richmond managed a program record 29 wins over their 37 game season. Coach Mooney turned aside overtures for BCS-level coaching jobs, and Richmond has tied him into a long term contract that should keep him for at least 5 more (or so) years.

Temple

Injuries caught up with the Owls

The preseason favorite to repeat as conference champion spent a good part of the season struggling to cover gaps in their lineup. A preseason injury to senior Craig Williams became a precursor of the season to come, as the forward was expected to miss only the first month or so of the season. Despite the prognosis, the senior suffered further injuries during rehabilitation, and never set foot on the court in 2011. Of those who did start the season, Juan Fernandez, the 2010 Atlantic-10 Tournament Most Valuable Player struggled at times in the out of conference portion of the season, and ultimately missed four conference games in January. The roster count going into 2010-11 was 11 (absent Craig Williams), so the margin for injury was extremely small. Freshman forward Anthony Lee sat out the season with a back injury, while Center Eric Michael tore a patella tendon February 17 and missed the rest of the season (six regular season conference games, Duke, two Atlantic-10 Conference Tournament games and two NCAA games). Meanwhile during the last portion of the regular season, Scootie Randall was also sidelined with a deeply bruised foot. The wing missed the last four regular season conference games (and Duke), and returned only for the NCAA games. Note the upturn (not a good turn) in the defense around game #13 (Saint Joseph's), which coincides with the simultaneous loss of Michael and Randall. The consolation is that the additional playing time allocated to Rahlir Jefferson, TJ DiLeo, Aaron Brown and Khalif Wyatt should pay dividends in 2012. The Owls lost their Atlantic-10 Conference Tournament semi-final game to Richmond (revenge for the Spiders who lost to the Owls in the 2010 Tournament final), but did eliminate Penn State in the first round of the NCAA before falling to San Diego State after two overtimes, in their second NCAA game.

Xavier

Led the conference from start to finish

Second year Coach Chris Mack, like Temple's Coach Dunphy, had to negotiate a rash of preseason/early season injuries that decimated the Musketeer squad through much of November. The Musketeers stumbled to a very unXavier-like out of conference record of 8-5 to start conference play. Pegged in the previews to finish anywhere from #2 to #4 in conference play, Coach Mack's squad led conference play from first tip to final buzzer, racking up an impressive 15-1 record in conference play. If Xavier's offensive efficiency showed a decline from games #6 (George Washington) to #14 (at Dayton), note their defense efficiency kept the margin more-or-less the same through that period. #1 seeded for the Atlantic-10 Tournament, the X-men were upset in the quarter-finals by old rival Dayton, and though seeded #6, they were surprisingly (again) eliminated from the NCAAs by a first round upset at the hands of Marquette.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: A Quick Recap of San Diego State & Temple

by Ray Floriani

LYNDHURST, NJ - A heartbreaker for Temple and Atlantic Ten fans in general. A continuation of a magical journey for the Aztecs. San Diego state defeated Temple 71-64 in two overtimes to advance to the Sweet Sixteen. The numbers:

		Off.
Team	Poss.	Off.
Temple	73	88
San Diego State	71	100

* Inside play was a major point in deciding this contest. Temple managed only 37% (19 of 52 ) from two point range. San Diego State, especially in the second OT, defended the lane very well. Granted, there were some easy shots missed by Temple during the game but the Aztecs did reject six Owl shots. The 6-9 Malcolm Thomas came up big for the Aztecs with 13 points,9 boards and 4 blocks. Ramone Moore scored 17 points but was the only player who shot the ball (7 of 12 from the floor) reasonably well for Fran Dunphy's club. Both teams had TO rates under the 20% mark. Temple checked in at 15%. San Diego State was 18%. Not very high but a few of their 13 miscues were of the type that could have cost them the game.

greyCat Note -- A preseaon favorite for the A-10 Title, the Owls overcame injuries to keep the chances alive. Eliminated in the A-10 semi-finals by eventual champion Richmond, Temple nevertheless went on to break Coach Dunphy's winless run in the NCAA Tournament when they beat Penn State on Thursday. Despite the loss on Saturday, Temple finished with a 26-7 record on the season, and with nearly all players (except All-Conference Lavoy Allen) returning next season, can look forward to another successful Big 5 and A-10 season.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Celebrating the Madness

by Ray Floriani

HACKENSACK, NJ - 'March Madness' needs no explanation. Hooters needs little introduction. The famed eating, drinking, casual establishment with the world famous dance team style attired 'Hooters Girls' is a natural for sports fans. In March the establishment literally 'takes it up a notch'.

Knowing very well the appeal of the NCAA will attract an added customer base, Hooters is running two promotions. One, a fund-raiser, is run in conjunction with the V Foundation for cancer research. For every 'like' they receive on their Facebook page between February 22 and April 6, Hooters will donate $1 to the V.

Hard at work watching games and writing
as Crystal (l) and Lauren (r) pay a visit.

The second promotion is a 'National Hooky Day', set for March 17th and 18th, the two days opening the NCAA Tournament in full force. The company or individual Hooters 'stores' were not condoning a fake absence from work or class, however. Rather, you can download a 'note' from 'Nurse Ashleigh' excusing you for your absence and allowing a free appetizer (cheese sticks, onion rings or pickles). The only stipulation was getting to Hooters when a tournament game was telecast which basically covered noon until midnight. And did not interfere with work or class schedules.

With their lineup of available TVs, all games aired at a particular time were available. Stopping in (after a walking workout) on Thursday, the games were closely followed with the Louisville, Temple and Kentucky drawing the most attention.

The only people I noticed in need of medical attention were those who had Louisville headed to the Final Four in their office pools. Shortly after Morehead State's Demonte Harper's trey found nothing but net, there were a few groans. Nurse Ashleigh would have had a few 'patients'.

(l-r) Heather, Crystal, Lauren and Nadia
and an advertisement featuring the ubiquitous Dick Vitale

2011 Atlantic 10 Tournament -- 6 Takaways

Pausing at the End of the Regular Season
After blogging five of the seven games in the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Friday, Saturday and Sunday, I reflected on what I saw in March 2010 and what I saw in March of 2011. The drive home was interrupted by texts and calls on the seeds and regions for the NCAA, but as the phone traffic died down and the Garden State Parkway behaved, I had a chance to think about the conference, the venue and what might be coming next...

1. Atlantic City is a great venue for a tournament -- The A-10 Conference was an outstanding host and Boardwalk Hall, not under siege from an offshore Nor'Easter as it was the first weekend March of 2010, provided a dry and comfortable, fan friendly venue for a college game. The attendance relies heavily on the A-10 member fan-base. The games did not draw much by way of street traffic. That was a problem, as neither Richmond nor Dayton, the finalists, are within short-term traveling distance from Atlantic City, and therefore unable to get to Atlantic City for the Championship game. Attendance for the semi-final games which featured two Philadelphia schools, was 8,285. Attendance for the Championship game was 5,602. Put another 5,000 fans in the seats and the place would rock.

2. Dayton's Old Habits Are Hard to Break -- After "counter programming" for three rounds, Dayton fell back into their old pattern in the championship game. And lost. In the first three rounds the Flyers took an early lead over their opponents (Massachusetts, Xavier and Saint Joseph's) through a mix of three point shooting and fast breaks. During that three game run the Flyers' three point completion rate -- 50.9% -- was better than their two point completion rate, 47.0%, and they scored 17 fast break points in their quarter and semi final games. Against Richmond the Flyers returned to form, they fell behind early on the road and spent the rest of the game playing catch up. Their three point conversion rate, 21.4% was lower than average, but two fast break points was a killer, and gave proof that Richmond's defensive strategy, defend the three point line, limit offensive rebounds and stay in front of Dayton's forwards and guards, worked. Dayton is headed to the NIT for the second consecutive post season. They won it all last season, and it will be interesting to see if Coach Gregory's squad can maintain the focus necessary to make a run this post season.

3. Kevin Anderson was unstoppable -- When Richmond needed points, he got them, or found the teammate who would. The Tournament MVP scored 66 total points over three games, an average of 22.0 points per game. The senior point guard score 24 points on eight converted three pointers, 22 from 11 converted two pointers and 20 points from the free throw line.

4. Temple was too small and too shallow to win three games in three days -- They need to get Scootie Randall back. Coach Dunphy used a seven man rotation against Richmond, and La Salle (discounting one minute stints for Dutch Gaitley and Jake Godino). It was not enough against Richmond, as the Spiders outrebounded the Owls by six (42 to 36), but more importantly, limited the Owls to a very paltry 25.6% offensive rebounding rate (the Owls rebounded just over 25% of their missed field goal attempts). That rate declined over the halves, from 27.8% to 23.8%. Were the Temple rebounders tiring?

5. Richmond's defense can win games -- Of defensive rebounding -- "...that's...not a tremendous strength of ours...this tournament was probably the most consistent we've every rebounded..." He went on to credit Darrius Garrett as their defensive stopped and principal rebounder. "...not a strength" is an understatement, the Spiders are ranked (per Ken Pomeroy) #291 (out of 345) for offensive rebounding, and a below average #195 for defensive rebounding. For the three games in Atlantic City, the Spiders' offensive rebounding rate rose to "above average" (the rank in the range of #147-#152) while defensive rebounding had the Spiders limited opponents to a 26.1% rebounding rate all season, would be ranked #5. That rebounding rate will win games. The defensive retooling, should it carry over into the NCAAs, should get the Spiders out of the first weekend.

6. Saint Joseph's...next year -- Their 6-5 finish to the season (after a 5-17 start) has assured a 17th season on Hawk Hill for Coach Phil Martelli...and raised expectations for next season? The veteran coach can look to a stable and productive backcourt pairing in Carl Jones and Langston Galloway that will be balanced with an inside presence in CJ Aiken, Ronald Roberts and Darius Quarles. The late season surge may be attributed to something as obvious as "We got tired of losing..." -- the sentiment expressed by a Saint Joseph's player in the Duquesne post game press conference, but the veteran coach will need more than the good feelings of a 6-5 finish going into next season. In addition to finding replacements for seniors Charoy Bentley and Idris Hilliard, Martelli has to hold this nucleus together through the off season. While Hawk faithful may feel recruiting errors have been the biggest program failing since the Hawks' 2004 run to the Elite Eight, holding onto and developing those players recruited has proven to be the bigger challenge.

Onto the Post Season...
NCAA -- Three A-10 teams Xavier (#6, East Region), Temple (#7, West Region) and Richmond (#12, Southwest Region) were seeded in the NCAA field.
NIT -- A single team, the Dayton Flyers were offered a spot in the field of 32. The Flyers will host Charleston Tuesday night.
CBI -- Three teams are entered in the Gazelle Group's College Basketball Invitational Tournament and will play their first round games Wednesday. Rhode Island will host Miami (Oh), while St. Bonaventure will travel to Central Florida and Duquesne will travel to Montana.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: A Second Look at the A-10 Quarter Finals

by Ray Floriani

ATLANTIC CITY, NJ - A look and analysis of the other three quarterfinal games at Boardwalk Hall.

In front of Boardwalk Hall
between sessions

The scores...

Team	Score			Team
Dayton	68		67	Xavier
Saint Joseph's	93	OT	90	Duquesne
Temple	96		76	La Salle
Richmond	55		45	Rhode Island

Jim Baron instructing the Rams
during a time out

Story of Richmond and Rhode Island was defense. A 58 possession game, neither team hit 100 offensive efficiency. That is good defense, In this case Richmond's was better. Rhode Island posted an offensive efficiency of 78 while the victorious Spiders were 97.

Richmond didn't do it by forcing turnovers. Both clubs had solid TO rates (URI 17%, Richmond 11%). Rather it was the lockdown variety forcing URI into a 40% eFG showing. Richmond also avoided fouling as the Rams attempted only 8 field goals.

Kevin Anderson, Richmond's outstanding senior guard, led the way with 21 points. He shot only 5 of 15 from the floor but did hit a late trey that basically sealed the verdict. Anderson was also 8 of 9 from the line. The vintage Anderson performance we virtually take for granted.

The Spiders' Kevin Smith did not score. The senior forward took only two shots. In the course of his 34 minutes, Smith's presence was felt with contributions -- 7 rebounds, 4 assists, a block and two steals. Valuable contributions in a hard fought victory.

this Rhode Island shirt is 'classic'

La Salle's problems were turnovers and defense. The Explorers had an abysmal 29% TO rate on the offensive end. Defensively, they couldn't force much as Temple had only 6 TOs remarkable 8% rate. Staying with the defensive topic, La Salle gave up a too generous 60% eFG percentage to the Owls. Temple actually shot a slight percentage point better from three than two. They were 10 of 19 (53%) beyond the arc and 25 for 48 (52%) from two point range. Fran Dunphy's club simply shot the ball from all over with five players in double figures.

In a 75 possession game the efficiencies:

La Salle	101
Temple	130

Temple fan lets allegiance be known

As noted I'm sure many times in the past, 101 offensive efficiency can win games for you. Winning with a defense of 130? Almost impossible.

Ramone Moore led the way with 23 points due to his versatility on the perimeter and inside. Lavoy Allen had 14 points while adding a dozen rebounds. Dunphy praised the ability of Allen to get the ball inside and find open teammates against a collapsing defense. In this game, Allen was very effective in that capacity with a team leading 6 assists and only one turnover, which came on an offensive foul.

On La Salle's behalf, note they did shoot a 60% eFG percentage. And they did get individual performances of note from Aaric Murray (22 points) and Ruben Guillandeaux (17 points). But those turnovers, which Guillandeaux unfortunately led in that category with 6, and that (lack of) defense….

The previously mentioned Richmond-Rhody game was more deliberate. Duquesne-St.Joseph's was quite the opposite. The ending also featured a lower seed holding on for an overtime victory. The St.Joseph's guards Langston Galloway and Carl Jones combined for 38% of the Hawks field goal attempts. It was not all perimeter by any stretch as Ronald Robert (19 points) and Idris Hilliard (18 points) were vital contributors.

In the 80 possession game, St.Joseph's had the edge in offensive efficiency:

Saint Joseph's	116
Duquesne	111

The Four Factors were relatively even. The Hawks did have a slight advantage in EFG percentage. They shot 59% to Duquesne's 56%. Credit that to a better showing from beyond the arc. The Hawks were 8 of 16 (50%) to Duquesne's 9 of 21 (43%).

Freshman guard T.J. McConnell missed a last second shot which could have forced a second OT. He scored 15, hitting 6 of 10 from the field. McConnell paced the Dukes with four turnovers but on a bright note, also led the team with 5 steals.

Carl Jones of St.Joseph's led all scorers with 28 points. Jones also had the TO 'bug' setting the game standard with half a dozen.

Despite these two extreme examples of individual turnover extravagance, the TO rates in this one were not that bad.

Saint Joseph's	21%
Duquesne	19%

Duquesne's Damian Saunders tied Bill Clark for the team scoring lead with 21 points. Saunders also tied Lavoy Allen of Temple with the best Manley efficiency rating of the day, at 31. When overtime is a factor though, there is another consideration regarding the Manley. More on that next time.

yours truly with
the Dayton cheerleaders

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: A-10 Quarter Finals

by Ray Floriani

ATLANTIC CITY, NJ - The Atlantic Ten quarterfinals at Boardwalk Hall, gave us two outstanding afternoon games. Lower seeds pulled the upsets in both. The evening saw the higher seeds 'hold serve' with one blowout (Temple over LaSalle) followed by a close Richmond elimination of Rhode Island. Now, the game of the day. An easy one.
The scores...

Team	Score			Team
Dayton	68		67	Xavier
Saint Joseph's	93	OT	90	Duquesne
Temple	96		76	La Salle
Richmond	55		45	Rhode Island

Game of the Day:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Dayton	63	112
Xavier	61	106

Pace was moderate but to the eye seemed faster. That was due to both teams aggressively pushing the ball. The difference was, if the transition opportunity was not there, the offense shifted to half court mode. The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Dayton	60	16	40	23
Xavier	53	16	29	16

Dayton shot the ball well, aided by an 8 of 13 (62%) mark from three. Good thing they were on as the turnover rate cancelled almost a quarter of their possessions.

Rebounding was a pre-game priority and Brian Gregory's club responded well. Xavier did do damage in the lane however. They were 53% from two point range, enjoying a slight 32-28 edge in points in the paint.

Getting more into the 'numbers' approach, Dayton was swept by their in state rivals twice. Gregory emphasized that 70 of the 80 minutes, in the two games, Dayton was right there. The focus was on improving on those minutes they fell short rather than come in with the concern of facing a higher seeded opponent who swept you in the regular season.

Chris Johnson of Dayton led all with 10 rebounds. Johnson put together a nice showing with 12 points, an assist and two steals.

The Manley Efficiency leaders:

	Manley
	Eff.
C. Johnson, Dayton	22
Tu Holloway, Xavier	18
P. Williams, Dayton	14

Holloway of Xavier led all scorers with 23 points. He was 7 of 17 from the floor but did have five assists against just two turnovers.

Williams, a junior guard hit a few timely treys. He finished with 14 points, hitting 4 of 6 beyond the arc.

Xavier committed only 10 turnovers but Jamel McLean and Mark Lyons had four each.

Luke Fabrizius added 10 points in 15 minutes for the Flyers. The junior forward won't soon be forgotten in the annals of this rivalry as he canned two game winning free throws with 5.8 seconds left. Holloway's last second attempt from deep rimmed and Dayton was celebrating and semifinal bound.

Notes
Will be back with a follow up including a general look at the other three contests from the quarters. And, not to mention, pictures.

Xavier's Tu Holloway shows the disappointment
after the loss to Dayton