Dove Entrails & Tea Leaves -- Pythagoreas, Minutes and Points in the A-10

The Problem with Crystal Balls
As an expression (for the sake of clarety...), the process of determining how a team will do in the next season looks something like this...

How Team A will do this season = How Team A did last season - Team A players lost + Team A players gained + Team A intangibles

The Pythagorean Winning Percentage provides one of the best measures of how a team did in previous seasons. We can use a deductive approach to analyzing how the departed players will affect the next squad by looking at who is coming back, and what they bring. Incorporating new players into the mix is about the toughest part of the process...next to accurately assessing the impact of the intangibles of course. Taking a look at the first two elements (how Team A did and who Team A will bring back) is the start of the process, and once I have those two elements,it is easier to see how the last two could affect their performance and standing next season. Comparing each teams overall Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) against the average of the conference (about 54.5, the Atlantic 10 is a very good conference), then doing the same for returning minutes (based on rosters through early August) and plotting the differences to a grid provides a clear indication of where each team sits compared to the rest of the conference. I have been partial to returning minutes because I think it provides a good sense of the relative maturity of different squads, but returning points has value, and so I decided to plot a second grid with points in place of minutes, as those who check out the second chart below. Can points tell us something that minutes might not? Compare Xavier's position in the tables below...

The X-axis returning percentage of minutes (above) and returning percentage of points (below). PWP is the Y-axis. For the PWP/Returning Minutes chart above, the axis intersect at (54.5,66.4), while for the PWP/Returning Points chart below, the intersection is (54.5,66.7).

.

A quick look and the two seem to virtually identical. A closer look uncovers a few differences worth exploring.

No Surprises Here
Temple and (sometimes) Xavier plot to the (upper left) above average quadrant for returning points and for the Musketeers, just below the average line for minutes returned (> average PWP, < average returning minutes), but the Muskies jump above the X-axis (average of returning scoring) in the second table -- a quick visual on the "value of Tu Holloway". For the past three seasons these two programs have turned the A-10 regular season into a duet. Those concerned about the X-men's minutes (ie experience) next season can relax, the program has learned to level the year-to-year ebb and flow of talent through the judicious application of red shirts and transfer eligibility rules. Coach Mack has Brad Releford, a rising junior sniper, Justin Martin, a red shirt (partial qualifier) freshman and Travis Taylor (transfer from Monmouth University) in reserve from last season, ready to step into the rotation for 2012. And even as I write, Isaiah Philmore, a transfer from Towson, will practice this season and be ready to step in 2013. Excellent programs can do that.

Coach Dunphy has not established that cushion for his Owl program, but every season a rotations/role player seems to step up and have a great year. Juan Fernandez and Ryan Brooks blossomed in 2010, while Scootie Randall and Khalif Wyatt did the same in 2011.

Testing Common Wisdom
Mature/experienced teams improve over their prior performances. That saw will be tested in 2012 as 2011 bottom-dwellers Fordham and Charlotte return squads that lost a combined 25 games in conference competition last season. Charlotte's fall from grace in 2011 (the 49ers returned higher-than-average minutes from a squad that posted a greater-than-average PWP from 2010) can be attributed to the education of rookie coach Alan Major. The transition from assistant to head coach, especially when a change of program is part of the transiton, can be bumpy -- Dayton fans take note. Coach Major brings in a large class rookie this season, which may be counter productive when installing new offensive/defensive systems. Coach Tom Pecora's Fordham squad showed improvement in his first season at Rose Hill, but the squad needs an infusion of A-10 level talent to establish momentum. Will he find them among the six new faces (freshmen) coming in for 2012?

For Saint Louis, Saint Joseph's, George Washington and St. Bonaventure however, the old saw may work out in 2012. Coach Mark Schmidt put the Bonnies on an upward trajectry when he took over in 2008. A-10 Player of the Year candidate Andrew Nicholson is a major reason, but Coach Schmidt has surrounded him with solid talent. Coach Mike Lonergan's hire last April places George Washington in a position similar to Charlotte's in 2011; a new coach taking charge of an experienced squad. Having seven years at the helm of Vermont gives Coach Lonergan an advantage the Major did not have however. Early season games against Syracuse, Georgia, UAB and Kansas State should give fans a good idea of where the program stands going into conference play. Coach Phil Martelli brought in a consensus conference-best class in 2011. Better yet, the class appears to be headed back to Hawk Hill for 2012 along with most of the eligible returnees, which ought to break Saint Joseph's two year run of 20 game losing seasons. Coach Rick Majerus' four year tenure at Saint Louis has been marked with a revolving door roster and a badly timed setback in 2011. 2012 should mark a substantial turnaround for the Billikens as they return nearly all of their (young) 2011 roster and suspended clutch guard Kwamain Mitchell. Should Coach Majerus' health hold up, the Billikens should have a hand in the conference race in 2012 and beyond.

When anticipating who would plot to the (lower left) "below average" on both factors quadrant, I thought the two last place teams, Charlotte and Fordham would be the strongest candidates. Both, it turns out, return more than average for minutes and points next season. The teams that did plot to the lower left quadrant are La Salle and Massachusetts, the teams that finished #9 and #10 respectively in 2011 conference play. The Explorers had a good balance of senior leadership and young talent, but was plagued with inconsistent play throughout the season. Some changes to the roster (especially when the freshman backcourt rotation -- Tyreek Duren, Sam Mills and Cole Stefan stay for another season) may benefit La Salle's prospects in 2012 (not to mention Dr. Giannini's job security).

For UMass however, the problem is inherent to the Dribble Drive Motion offensive system implemented by Coach Derek Kellogg. The DDM relies on a dynamic lead guard to either score via penetration or (when the situation calls for it...) get the ball to someone who can. The system needs reliable secondary scorers who can catch and and penetrate or shoot from the outside (when needed) and athletic front court players who can rebound and put back should the shooter's attempt miss. If the squad (especially that lead guard) not recognize and exploit/convert the scoring opportunities, the principal ball handler becomes a volume scorer. Since Gary Forbes' senior season (2008 -- Travis Ford's last as Coach in Amherst), Kellogg's lead guards (Ricky Harris and Anthony Gurley) typically take 30% or more of the possessions and shots, but the offense does not convert those possessions efficiently enough to win consistently. The problem in 2011 is that the scoring alternatives, Jesse Morgan and Freddie Riley had lower offensive (points per possession) ratings than Gurley. Those two and Chaz Williams, a 5-9 Hofstra transfer, will be next up as lead guard/scorer in the system.

Programs versus Teams
2012 should provide an opportunity to see which Coach Chris Mooney has built at Richmond during his tenure. The Spiders graduated a substantial percentage of their scoring and minutes over the past two seasons, but have a deep roster from which to draw. If the rotation players step forward (as Justing Harper did in 2011), the team should not take a large step back from their performance over the past two seasons. Can the same be said for Duquesne and Rhode Island, two other programs that played to the conference tournament quarter finals in 2011? The Runnin' Rams' Coach Jim Baron has had to scramble the past few off seasons to fill out his roster. Though he had early commitments, all too often they did not make it to campus, and the Rhode Island mentor had to rummage through JUCO lists and AAU rosters going late into July. This past season the needs were identified, those expected to return -- Akeem Richmond excepted -- will and the signees are all coming in as well. Those stitched together rosters produced three consecutive post season runs, but Coach Baron has never had so small a returning nucleus to start the season. Though transfers Billy Baron (the coach's son) and Andre Malone won't be available until after the fall semester, early season games at Texas and with regional rivals Boston College and Providence might provide a hing about Rhode Island's fortunes in 2012. Duquesne's Coach Ron Everhart has adjusted his gameplan to exploit the advantages a smaller, more mobile squad can provide. The frantic pace (#13 in D1 per Ken Pomeroy) caught unsuspecting teams off guard which, enabled the Dukes to earn a bye bid to the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament and a post season spot in the CBI field in 2011. Coach Everhart will have a couple of taller players to replace Damian Saunders and Bill Clark, but will they be as efficient?

Caveat Emptor
Consider that...
1. The rosters are still taking shape. In the past week La Salle fans learned that South Carolina transfer Ramone Galloway was granted a waiver to play immediately (headline announcement on the front page of the team's web site), while (not publicly acknowledged...) rising sophomore Cole Stefan left the program and the school. Some schools (Rhode Island for example) tend to delay announcements on academic probation. And injuries can strain resources (see Xavier and Temple early in 2011) or derail a season (La Salle in 2010).
2. Fans may have their favorites for preseason Rookie of the Year, but predicting the impact of any freshman is tricky, involving both talent and opportunity...with a large helping of luck.
3. Of the last five new conference coaches, Xavier's Chris Mack (hard to believe he will enter his third year as a head coach in 2012) has had the easiest path -- credit the solid program he inherited when Sean Miller moved on to Arizona. What can the struggles of Tom Pecora, a successful veteran coach charged with rebuilding Fordham and Alan Major, an Ohio State Assistant Coach whose first bite at the head coaching apple came at Charlotte suggest to us about Archie Miller and Mike Lonergan's first season at Dayton and George Washington respectively? Miller takes over a light roster and has to find bodies just to cover the next season. Combined with his lack of head coaching experience the Flyers will most likely struggle to match 2011's 7-9 conference mark. Lonergan, an experienced hand at Vermont, steps into a deeper and stronger roster. How drastically he moves the squad to his offensive and defensive systems and how hard he pushes the current roster to get there will probably influence how enthusiastically the roster responds.

Wash, Rinse, Repeat (pt 2) -- The 2012 Atlantic-10 Home and Away Slate

Flipping 2011 Home/Away Opponents
In addition to carrying the mirror opponents (home/away series opponents) from 2011, the Atlantic-10 schedule maker reversed the venues for the single game opponents. Charlotte visited Duquesne, Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, Saint Louis and Temple in 2011. The 49ers will host those teams as single game opponents in 2012. Does this balance their schedule over the two season period? Remember that virtually no teams return their entire rosters season-over-season. The average of returning minutes in the A-10 next season (to this point) is about 66%.

Home & Away According to Pythagoreas & Seed...
I decided to take the average of the home and away Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) -- conference games only -- for each team's set of opponents. I excluded mirror opponents (covered in the previous post) for this the compilation to focus on those match-ups that would not allow a return engagement (in the 2012 regular season). I also took the average A-10 conference tournament seed for each set of opponents, to determine if each team was facing an "average" set of opponents in the home or away setting -- the conference has 14 members, the "average seed" is 7.5...

	Non-Mirror Opps.
	Home		Away
Team	PWP	Seed	PWP	Seed
Charlotte	0.522	4.9	0.358	7.8
Dayton	0.341	7.4	0.531	6.8
Duquesne	0.319	9.3	0.614	6.6
Fordham	0.438	6.5	0.587	6.8
George Washington	0.526	7.3	0.565	8.5
La Salle	0.436	6.8	0.488	7.1
Massachusetts	0.334	9.3	0.711	6.3
Rhode Island	0.555	7.8	0.546	8.4
Richmond	0.370	9.1	0.710	7.4
Saint Joseph's	0.236	8.8	0.691	4.6
St. Bonaventure	0.538	6.8	0.555	8.5
Saint. Louis	0.477	5.5	0.379	7.9
Temple	0.557	7.9	0.553	9.5
Xavier	0.497	8.0	0.500	9.0
Avg.	0.439	7.5	0.556	7.5
Std.	0.099	1.3	0.103	1.2

As the table suggests, there is a sharp contrast in the PWPs among visiting teams and hosts. George Washington, Rhode Island, St. Boanventure and Temple appear to have the strongest slate of non-mirror opponents, and Temple looks as if their slate of road opponents may be marginally easier than their slate of visitors (though the Owls did catch a huge break on their mirror opponents). Looking over the PWPs for road games, it appears that Massachusetts, Richmond and Saint Joseph's have their work cut out for them. For the Minutemen and Spiders, this could be problematic, as the UMass returns 60% of their 2011 scoring (points) and Coach Chris Mooney's squad returns just over 31% of theirs.
Different Strategies for Different Circumstances
A common wisdom approach to scheduling strategy might want to schedule the stronger opponents into the home arena, thereby using the home court advantage to maximum effect, while taking the weaker opponents on the opponents' home court with the notion they could be beaten in either location. For teams whose objective is to break out of the conference's lower division (or cellar...) however a counter intuitive strategy might be the better choice. Hosting weaker opponents would maximize the chances of winning conference games, while conceding the road loss to the conference's stronger teams. Very few coaches would embrace a strategy that concedes losses even before the season even starts, but as a practical approach to accumulating wins, programs like Charlotte and Fordham have few options, at least until they rebuild their programs. How do the non-mirror match-ups compare when looking at those two different approaches?

Looking for Wins...Any Wins
Rookie Coach Archie Miller may have caught a break from the schedule maker. Dayton graduated All Conference forward Chris Wright, while also losing freshmen Juwan Staten (West Virginia) and Brandon Spearman (Indian Hills CC) to transfer. The depleted Flyers return 58.4% of their minutes and 58% of their scoring. Drawing hosting duties for Charlotte, George Washington, La Salle, Massachusetts and Rhode Island without having to return the favor. Rhode Island at this point, is in line to return less than 25% of their 2011 minutes in 2012. Miller should be able to post a winning home record among these five opponents. The seed versus PWP spread for the opponents visiting the UD Arena in 2012 is interesting, about average for seed, but a comparatively low road PWP. The spread suggests those teams did not travel well in 2011.

Richmond, like Rhode Island, will have only 40% of 2011's minutes available going into 2012, a (mirrors excluded) home slate of Dayton, Fordham, La Salle (again!), Massachusetts (ditto!) and Temple should help build some confidence (and post wins) for the Spiders of tomorrow. Their (non-mirror) road slate however, should be a bit more challenging -- Duquesne, Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure, Saint Louis and Xavier. Should Coach Mooney's squad post a winning record versus those five, Richmond will be in a good position for post season consideration.

Massachusetts slumped at the end of their 2011 conference schedule, dropping their last regular season game to winless (in conference play) Fordham and then losing their A-10 first round game to Dayton. Lining up Charlotte, Fordham, Saint Louis, St. Bonaventure and Xavier for home dates should help to establish a winning home record in conference play. True as visitors the Minutemen will be hard pressed to win more than one game from their road slate -- Dayton, Duquesne, George Washington, Richmond and Temple -- but if they hosted those five would they win more than (say...) two?

Fordham's home slate -- Charlotte, Dayton, George Washington, La Salle and Xavier -- should provide the Rams with a few more winning opportunities than their road slate -- Duquesne, Massachusetts, Richmond, Saint Joseph's and Saint Louis. Returning a nucleus of Chris Gaston, Branden Frazier and Alberto Estwick provides Coach Tom Pecora with an opportunity to up Fordham's conference win total in 2012.

Making a Statement
St. Bonaventure has bettered their conference record in each of Coach Mark Schmidt's four seasons, finishing in the upper division 2011. With Andrew Nicholson a rising senior in 2012, the future maybe now, and the Bonnies drew a fairly balanced (in a PWP sense...) slate of (non-mirror) home and away opponents. Assembling a winning record at both home and on the road against those opponents would certainly serve notice the Bonnies are back, and probably put them in the conversation for a post season bid, preferably to a tournament whose name starts with an "N".

On paper George Washington appears ready to shop for more permanent digs in the A-10's upper division. Next season's (non-mirror) home and away slate seems fairly balanced per the average PWP (and note the average seed is consistent with the PWP). The question is whether new Coach Mike Lonergan can motivate the squad to perform in the face of a challenging road slate.

Temple drew the only slate that would fit the bill for an elite team -- face better teams (Dayton, Duquesne, George Washington, Massachusetts and Xavier) at home, lesser teams (Charlotte, Rhode Island, Richmond, St. Bonaventure and Saint Louis) on the road. The seed versus PWP contrast for the road opponents suggests that lineup, like George Washington's, were stronger in front of the home crowd than on the road.

Counter Programming?
On the heels of an unexpectedly good (slump at season's end excepted) season, Duquesne would probably have been better served with a stronger slate of visiting teams than Fordham, La Salle, Massachusetts, Richmond and Saint Joseph's. While there may be a measure of home crowd entertainment value in running up the score on Fordham or Massachusetts, but wide margins may (again?) obscure weaknesses in the Duke program.

Xavier drew a surprisingly balanced slate of single game opponents for both home (Fordham, George Washington, La Salle, Massachusetts and Temple) and the road (Duquesne, Rhode Island, Richmond, Saint Joseph's and St. Bonaventure). Note the home slate has an average seed within the standard deviation, while the road slate seed is just below the range established by the standard deviation (suggesting the Musketeers' hosts are better at home than on the road).

Caveat Emptor
Consider that...
1. The rosters are still taking shape -- at this point it appears that Saint Louis will return 92.8% of their minutes from the 2011 season (plus Kwamain Michell). Last June the Billikens were projected to return 82.7% of their minutes, but only 54% were on the roster when the season started. There are a variety of reasons why players, post NBA draft deadline, do not return to school, and every Atlantic-10 team has lost experienced minutes in June and later in the off season.
2. Timing can make a difference -- Duquesne ran up an 8-0 record through the first half of their 2011 A-10 slate against teams that finished the season with a collective 50-78 (0.391) conference record. Only two of those teams (Temple and George Washington) finished on the upside of 0.500 in their conference games.
3. Coaching changes can affect team dynamics, or not -- Charlotte's Alan Major had a rough rookie season as head coach, while rookie head coach Chris Mack's Xavier squad won the Atlantic-10 regular season title in 2010. George Washington's Coach Lonergan has six years of experience directing Vermont's program (and seven directing D3 Catholic University) before taking over at George Washington; the Colonials should show improvement over their 2011 conference record (health providing...). Dayton's Archie Miller, a long-time assistant, but looking at his first season in charge of a Division 1 program, may have problems matching departed coach Brian Gregory's 7-9 record.

On Second Thought -- Plotting Trendlines for Atlantic 10 Teams (pt 3)

Slumps and Surges...
The tie that binds the three Atlantic-10 teams featured in this post is the offensive efficiency trendline. Irrespective of where the offensive efficiency was in relation to the the defensive efficiency trendline, the team spent some part of the season "under water", only to have the offensive efficiency trendline emerge on top by the end of conference play. The conference standings/seeds for the Atlantic 10 Tournament with the featured teams highlighted:

	W	L	Pct.
Xavier	15	1	0.938
Temple	14	2	0.875
Richmond	13	3	0.813
Duquesne	10	6	0.625
George Washington	10	6	0.625
Rhode Island	9	7	0.563
St. Bonaventure	8	8	0.500
Dayton	7	9	0.438
Massachusetts	7	9	0.438
La Salle	6	10	0.375
St. Louis	6	10	0.375
Saint Joseph's	4	12	0.250
Charlotte	2	14	0.125
Fordham	1	15	0.063

As the standings above show, two of the teams posted losing records in conference play. In fact George Washington and Saint Louis were eliminated in the first round of the conference tournament and did not appear in the quarter finals in Atlantic City. Adding to George Washington's woes, the Colonials were not invited to any post season tournament either.

George Washington

The team learned how to play as the season progressed

Going into the 2011 season Coach Karl Hobbs knew he would not have the four seniors (and red shirt post grad guard Travis King) available. He could draw consolation however in a promising freshman (Nemanja Mikic), a few returning players who showed promise (Tony Taylor and David Pellom), but best of all, Lasan Kromah, the team leader for three point shooting and steals as a freshman in 2010. Kromah was named conference Rookie of the Week three times during his freshman campaign, and would surely be the offensive centerpiece for the 2011 campaign. Until he was injured in a preseason scrimmage with North Carolina State on October 30. Coach Hobbs literally had to retool the offense on the eve of the season, and that process went on for much of the 2011 campaign. Truly the proto-type of a team that got better as the season progressed, the Colonials logged a tepid 7-6 out of conference record, but managed a 5-5 record 10 games into the conference season, that 10th game was a four point loss (65-69) to Richmond on February 9. GW went 5-1 in the last six conference games, beating Rhode Island and Dayton in the process, to finish 10-6 (17-13 overall). Given the obstacles, this had to be one of Coach Hobbs' better coaching jobs, but a change in the Athletic Directorship at season's end resulted in Hobbs' termination in late April. Vermont's Mike Lonergan takes the helm of a team with experience and talent. Assuming no defections, Coach Lonergan should do well next season.

La Salle

Chemistry problems?

As the chart suggests, the Explorers dropped their first four conference games. Coach John Giannini, dissatisfied with sophomore center Aaric Murray's effort during a 26 minute stint in the conference opener at George Washington, suspended the sophomore for the second game (against Richmond), which La Salle lost by 19, 87-68. La Salle however, dropped two more conference games (interrupted by a win over Big 5 rival Penn) before they kicked off a three game winning run at Rhode Island. If Dr. Giannini's squad went 6-6 over the last 12 conference games, why the clear separation between offensive and defensive efficiencies which indicates the team operated "under water" for most of the conference season? The margin of wins and losses, coupled with the unexpected turns taken via the adjusted efficiencies explains the gap. Of their six conference wins, four were by five or less, with their wins over Massachusetts (21) and Fordham (26) at the end of the season the only double digit wins in conference play. The point margins in their 10 losses varied from -2 to -38, with half by double digits (and three by 20 or more). The wins over Massachusetts and Fordham account for the end of the season surge. The Explorers avenged their 21 point loss to St. Bonaventure with a road win in the first round of the A-10 Conference Tournament, but they lost the quarter final round to Temple by 20, 96-76 to close out their season. Aaric Murray announced his transfer on March 24, but Dr. Giannini has a number of very promising guards slated to return for the 2012 season.

Saint Louis

Another season, another unseasoned team...

Suspensions to two players just after the open of the Fall Practice dealt a blow to the Billikens' prospects in the 2011 season. Like Coach Hobbs at George Washington, Coach Rick Majerus has to retool on the fly, and St. Louis forged a lackluster 5-8 record before they began conference play. Ranked #346 among D1 programs in experience (by Ken Pomeroy) in 2010, the Bills were set to move up in 2011, but those suspensions (coupled with two off season transfers) pushed Coach Majerus' squad back down to #339 (again per Ken Pomeroy). The playing time distribution (he relied heavily on freshman guards Jordair Jett and Mike McCall, and gave freshmen center Rob Loe and wing Dwayne Evans more playing time than sophomores Cody Ellis, Cory Remekun and Christian Salecich). The efficiency trendlines are classic Majerus as tight defense and flagging offense (until the team "gets it") reflects youth on the squad. The late season "surge" was due more to several outstanding defensive outings (St. Louis held Charlotte, Duquesne and Dayton to 56 or fewer points, while an out of conference opponent, Chicago State, scored 52 points) rather than a surging offense. 2011 did not bring a repeat of the Bills' Fabulous February of 2010 (a 7-1 run to close out their A-10 slate and bring their conference record to 10-4), as they logged a 3-4 record in conference games to start March with a 5-9 conference record. For 2012, one of the suspended players will most likely return to play his senior season, but the other, along with transfer Christian Salecich, has decided to move on.

Coaching Carousal, Part 2011-03

The Tipping Point...
In the three-plus weeks since Connecticut cut down the nets and ended the 2011 season, 13 coaching positions were filled even as three more head opened up. Even more notable, of the three which opened up, two were at the initiative of the current head coach, a strong signal that the momentum in cycle has begun to wind down. Dane Fife became the latest in a growing trend of low-major coaches who abandon the first chair to take an assistant job at a high-major when he left IPFW for a spot on Tom Izzo's staff at Michigan State. 25 years old when tabbed to lead the then independent IPFW in 2005, Fife led the Mastodons into the Summit League in his third season at the helm. A historic 0.218 program after three Division 1 seasons, Fife led IPFW to a 0.357 winning percentage his first season (12-18), and bettered that mark in each of his next five. The Mastodons logged an 18-12 record (0.600) last season and perhaps Fife felt it was time to move on. Division 2 (and lower level) head coaches traditionally take assistant positions to move up the ladder, have successful head coaches voluntarily leave their positions to take assistant jobs may be another piece in a growing body of evidence of the gap between BCS-level programs and nonBCS-level programs.

The timestamp on Dana O'Neil's ESPN feature, "Old Coaching Assumption Fading", was barely 10 days old when Jim Larranaga, cited by O'Neil as an early trend-setter, exchanged the familiar surroundings of the program he built at George Mason to lead Miami and work in the ACC on April 23. Put O'Neil at the end of a line of disappointed observers that no doublt includes Providence (Larranaga's alma mater, twice rebuffed when they came to court after his 2006 Final Four run) AD Bob Driscoll and anyone who bet money that Kansas State's Frank Martin would suceed the departed Frank Haith as the Hurricanes' most likely next coach (not to mention Martin himself perhaps?).

Only Karl Hobbs, the George Washington University head coach dismissed unexpectedly on April 25, was an employer-initiated move. The circumstances of Hobbs' dismissal were typical of a post season evaluation, and so seemed strange coming more than a month after the GWU men played their last basketball game. That Hobbs was fired by Patrick Nero less than a week after Nero was designated the successor to Athletic Director Jack Kvancz, and more than eight weeks before Nero will take up the day-to-day duties as AD, strongly hints that Nero's first personnel move was decided before he was hired, and therefore by others in the GWU administration. Why the quick trigger for Hobbs? The key may well be Jim Larranaga's move to Miami -- Vermont head coach Mike Lonergan has been featured prominently on George Mason Athletic Director Tom O'Connor's short list. Nero, whose previous job was Commissioner of the American East Conference -- of which Vermont is a member -- may emerge as the point man to bring Lonergan to Foggy Bottom. Should Lonergan prove to be the target for both programs (other overlapping targets for those two include Jeff Capel, released in March from Oklahoma), the 2011 edition of the Coaching Carousal may have a bidding war should both programs go full bore for either Capel or Lonergan. Andy Katz may believe that George Mason is the better situation, but as a member in the best non-BCS conference (the A-10) in Division 1, a renovated arena in the nation's capital and access to a top 10 media market and a few good coaches in the past two decades (Tom Penders, Mike Jarvis) George Washington can offer a higher profile.

Best Hires? Worst Hires?!
If the talking heads have no clear favorite for "Best Hire" (Ed Cooley to Providence, Sidney Johnson to Fairfield and Cuonzo Martin to Tennessee are drawing most of the approving nods...), a (negative) consensus is about Frank Haith, Missouri's choice to succeed the departed (for Arkansas) Mike Anderson. Adapting Dan Hanner's efficiency margin comparison method for the two coaches, even as we allow for different schools and conferences, might give us a hint at expectations for the Missouri fan-base...

	Average Adj.
Coach	Offense	Defense	Diff.
Anderson, Mizzou 2007-11	113.6	92.7	+20.8
Haith, Miami 2007-11	112.5	96.7	+15.8

While Anderson appears to have the edge (good news for the Arkansas fan-base?), Haith does not appear to be an unreasonable choice. A comparison of styles (using Ken Pomeroy's coaching resume feature) can perhaps give Missouri fans an idea of what to expect...

			Offense
Coach	Year	Pace	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FTRATE
Mike Anderson, Missouri	2009	71.3	52.8	34.3	16.0	36.6
Frank Haith, Miami	2008	67.4	49.2	36.1	19.0	39.1

Anderson's version of "40 Minutes of..." is much in evidence at Mizzou, and Arkansas fans, who enjoyed three Final Fours, including a National Championship under Anderson's mentor Nolan Richardson, should recognize (and appreciate) the style. Haith ran a more deliberate offense, that compensated for less efficient shot (fewer transition points most likely) converson (and a slightly higher turnover rate) with more aggressive offensive rebounding and lane work (the 'Canes got to the line more).

	Defense
Coach	eFG%	OR%	TO%	FTRATE
Anderson, Missouri	46.4	34.5	24.8	39.9
Haith, Miami	47.0	34.2	20.3	35.4

The defensive snapshot of their "best" season suggests that Anderson's defense was more aggressive (note the turnover rate and free throw rate, both higher than Haith's Miami squad, and frankly much higher than the Division 1 average). Neither squad excelled at rebounding, and were about the same for shot defense as well (Haith's squad was ranked #47 in 2008, Anderson's #53 in 2009). Both coaches seemed to favor guards and 'tweener type wing players, and Haith should find a familiar skill set on the Missouri squad next season. Missouri's playing style next season will be more deliberate than Mizzou saw under Anderson, but with a similar set of players, Haith should be able to make his system work (or not...) fairly early next season.


By the Numbers...
In the last Coaching Carousal post I suggested a floor of about 40 vacancies in this cycle. The total to date (fall practice to today) is 46. If the cycles over the last four off seasons is a good indication, the ceiling will probably be around 50 (48-53), as those unforeseen circumstances ("The things we know we don't know...") will acount for another 1 - 7 vacancies after the Spring signing period. The spate of coaching carousal articles this week (see Davis over at SI, Katz at ESPN for example...) hint that the cycle is winding down, yet in seasons past -- even setting aside 2009 (a very unusual off season for coaching changes) -- the cycle has continued into July and even into late August once or twice. The cycle picked up quickly between the end of the regular season and Selection Sunday, and spiked dramatically during the NCAA tournament. The NCAA Tournament is always the peak, but the period between the end of the tournament and the close of the spring signing period (the third week in May) is often as busy as the period between the end of the regular season and Selection Sunday. The average number of vacancies per season (season opening to fall practice of the following year) over the period 2000-2010 is 47.8 -- clearly the 46 vacancies to date means this season will, at worst be an "average" year in the cycle.

A Smaller Turnover in the post Tournament Period?
If the post tournament period period seems less hectic, consider that at this point in the cycle vacancies are created less from ADs firing coaches and more from coaches switching positions. The "fuel" that drives the carousal after the NCAAs is generally provided by the coaching fraternity, and indeed the coaches do account for 66% of the new vacancies since the crowning of the National Champions. BCS vacancies typically drive the carousal by triggering a chain reaction of coaching searches to replace coaches who move up the Division 1 food chain. Of the eight 2011 BCS coaching vacancies (Arkansas, Georgia Tech, Miami-FL, Missouri, North Carolina State, Oklahoma, Providence and Texas Tech), two (NCSU & Texas Tech) were filled by currently unemployed ex-coaches (Mark Gottfried and Billy Gillispie respectively), three (Georgia Tech, Oklahoma and Providence) were filled by low/mid-major coaches whose departure triggered at most one other vacancy (Providence <-- Fairfield <-- Princeton), while the remaining three (Arkansas, Missouri and Miami) were part of the same chain reaction, initiated when Arkansas fired John Pelphrey on March 13 (Arkansas <-- Missouri <-- Miami <-- George Mason...for now). Given the pool of candidates George Washington and George Mason have to work with (compete over), expect no more than two additonal vacancies to be opened from their searches.

The 2010 NIT Tip-Off -- A Look at the Winston-Salem and DC Pods

A Tale of Two Consolation Pods
A coincidence perhaps, or an ingrained part of the New York City-centric history of the NIT, but two of the three consolation pods (and the Championship Bracket) will be played in states along the Atlantic seaboard. Consistent with the protocol for (real) tournaments, pod play will dominate the early part of Thanksgiving Week, Monday and Tuesday nights, yielding the late week spotlight to the games of the Championship Bracket. The Semi-final will be played Wednesday night, with the Final (and Third Place game) scheduled for Friday night.

The Washington DC Pod
The two "North" pod 1-1 finishers, Boston University (NEC) and George Washington University (A-10 -- the pod host) will square off against Nevada, a 21 game winner and NIT team last season, and the Pirates of Hampton University (MEAC). Asking GW to take the hosting responsibilities was a nice touch. Although the A-10 representative lost their primary scorer Lasan Kromah just before the tournament, they have a renovated facility in the nation's capital. Nothing says Thanksgiving like a holiday in the nation's capital. And the Colonials have a brand new Daktronics scoreboard in their renovated on campus arena.

 

Washington DC
	Adjusted
Team	Pace	Adj Off	Adj Def	PWP
George Washington	67.4	102.4	97.6	0.635
Boston University	68.6	103.9	100.3	0.600
Hampton	66.7	88.1	96.8	0.254
Nevada	69.7	98.9	103.0	0.386

Breakdown of the Monday night games...

	log5	Pace	Margin
Boston University	81.5	67.3	10+
Hampton	18.5

Of Villanova's four opponents this season, Boston University has played the Wildcats tightest. Matt Griffen, Jake O'Brien and John Holland should have a good night at the Terriers take this by double digits. The overcard will feature GW and their WAC guests from Nevada

	log5	Pace	Margin
Nevada	26.6	69.5
George Washington	73.4		@7?

Pomeroy's Pythagorean Winning Percentages are still heavily influenced by Pomeroy's preseason calibration, so Lasan Kromah's loss is still not reflected in the offensive/defensive efficiencies. Coach Karl Hobbs will look to veterans Tony Taylor, Joseph Katuka, Aaron Ware and red shirt Jabari Edwards to fill in the gaps left by Kromah. Hopefully the sophomore will recover soon.

The former North Pod teams will swap guests for their Tuesday night games...

	log5	Pace	Margin
Nevada	29.5	70.4
Boston University	70.5		@5-6?

This promises to be the highest possession game of the pod, with both teams geared to shoot early in the possession. Nevada however is in danger of finishing this tournament 0-4, as neither of these games looks close.

	log5	Pace	Margin
Hampton	16.4	66.4
George Washington	83.6		10+?

Hampton, though sporting a 1-1 record out of the East Pod (they beat Winthrop in their second round game at Winston-Salem), Hampton brings the lowest PWP to this pod. Too bad they were not matched with Nevada, not possible because the other two teams played in the first round of pod play. It might be a bit ugly to watch, but it would be closer than any of the four scheduled games.

If the teams play to their PWPs, expect BU and GW to finish the tournament with 3-1 records, while Hampton can console itself with a single win over Winthrop, Nevada would go winless. Brutal for the cross country trip.

The Winston-Salem Pod
If the Pythagorean Winning Percentage is an accurate measure, this is the weakest of the three consolation pods. The irony is that it is simultaneously the most diverse in terms of team strength. The pairings also virtually two nights of near blowout basketball with as the least competitive potential match-ups were made. Rank has it's privileges apparently.

 

Winston-Salem, NC
	Adjusted
Team	Pace	Adj Off	Adj Def	PWP
Belmont	70.6	107.1	95.9	0.780
Marist	66.5	91.8	105.1	0.175
Wake Forest (host)	71.9	101.2	99.6	0.545
Winthrop	65.0	91.3	97.6	0.319

Although Winthrop and Wake were grouped in the East Pod, they did not play. The organizers (and Wake as the pod host?) decided to match them this time around. Those two will trade off Belmont and Marist on Monday and Tuesday. Breakdown of the Monday night games...

	log5	Pace	Margin
Marist	5.6	69.2
Belmont	94.6		20+?

Marist is the weakest team in the field, and the log5 projection shows they will lose again Monday night. Heavily. Hopefully Coach Martin can use this experience to mature his squad and get them ready for MAAC play.

	log5	Pace	Margin
Winthrop	28.1	69.0
Wake Forest	71.9		@8?

Though seeded #3 and given hosting responsibilities in the preliminary round, Wake struggled with Hampton in their first round game, and fell to Virginia Commonwealth in the second round. Given pod host responsibilities again, the tournament organizers appear to want the Demon Deacons to have the best opportunity to finish with a 3-1 record as well. The Eagles represented the Big South Conference in the NCAAs last March, but coach Randy Peele, entering his fourth season at Winthrop, faces a rebuilding year. The Eagles started slow last season and managed to make the Dance, maybe they can again this season.

Tuesday night games...

	log5	Pace	Margin
Winthrop	11.6	67.6
Belmont	88.4		10+

On paper this is a near-blowout of the Big South representative by a lower ranked conference opponent. Belmont is good and will probably finish this tournament with a 3-1 record that includes a good loss to Tennessee (by nine points on the Vols' home court), and three blowout wins over lesser opponents. This would have to be a confidence builder for the Atlantic Sun Conference representative. The Nashville, TN school has to be favored to take the conference championship this season.

	log5	Pace	Margin
Marist	15.0	70.5
Wake Forest	85.0		@10+?

This should be good entertainment for the Deacon faithful, as they will watch their team in an up tempo game blowing out a lesser opponent. Hopefully they can hold onto that memory, as it might be the high point of their season.

The most interesting match-up of the pod is the one that will not be played -- Wake vs Belmont. For giggles I ran the log5 numbers for that game and came up with Belmont favored, 74.8-25.2, in a very high tempo game (about 74 possessions), with the Bears mauling the Deacons by double digits. It is a shame, because low majors get very few opportunities outside of invitational tournaments like this one (where the organizers have some say in the match-ups) to take a good shot at a power conference team. Maybe Wake ran the log5 numbers too, before they decided on the pairings.

NIT Season Tip-Off -- A Post Pod Look

The Field Sorts Out...
The four NIT pod sites completed their two round elimination games Monday through Wednesday (11/15-11/17), with the four teams that logged 2-0 records in the pod rounds advancing to New York City to settle matters on the floor of Madison Square Garden. The end of pod play does not, however spell the end of the tournament for the 12 teams that will not advance to New York. For those teams, the field has been reorganized, three teams were selected to host a second set of games and the remaining nine teams were assigned to the three pod sites. The redrawn field (Pod hosts listed first, other alphabetized) is:

New York City (NIT Champ)	Conf.		Winston-Salem, NC	Conf.
Tennessee	SEC #2		Wake Forest	ACC #3
UCLA	Pac-10 #4		Belmont	Atl. Sun
Villanova	Big East #1		Marist	MAAC
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA #5		Winthrop	Big South
Washington DC	Conf.		Springfield, MO	Conf.
George Washington	A-10 #7		Missouri State	MVC #6
Boston University	Am. East		Arkansas State	Sun Belt
Hampton	MEAC		Pacific	Big West
Nevada	WAC #8		Pepperdine	WCC

For all but New York City (the Championship bracket), the pod host is the first team listed under the pod location. The first eight teams were seeded by the NIT before the first pod. The original seed is listed for those teams after their conference affiliation. All pods except New York City are "consolation pods", so the rounds will not be single elimination, but rather two games scheduled against two of the other pod members. That explains why every pod has (at least) one pair of teams from the previous pod assignment. Those "paired teams" are not scheduled to play each other. Each team in the tournament, win or lose, is guaranteed four "unique" opponents.

What We Learned From the Pods
1. This is a "real tournament", even if it was seeded...strangely. Though designated a pod host and given a #3 seed in the field (of 16), Wake Forest still had to earn it's ticket to New York City and the Championship Bracket. And that the Demon Deacons could not do, as Virginia Commonwealth beat them by a convincing 21 points, 90-69 on Tuesday (11/17) and swiped the Deacons' ticket to Madison Square Garden. That could not have been fun for the Wake faithful. (Too) Many of the early season invitationals grant their pod hosts a pass to the "Championship Bracket" irrespective of whether they win their pod outright.
2. Nevada is officially rebuilding. The 2010 edition of the Wolfpack is gone and the perennial WAC powerhouse is something of a paper tiger, as the Pacific Tigers, followed by the Pepperdine Waves demonstrated on successive nights in West pod action. Pepperdine, which beat Nevada by a point, 76-75, won seven games (total) in 2010, and is projected to finish last in the West Coast Conference again this season. Nevada will play their consolation games in Washington DC.
3. George Washington will really miss Lasan Kromah. Announced on the eve of pod play, the sophomore guard and All A-10 Rookie Team player is out indefinitely with a sprained left foot. The Colonials dropped a nine point decision to Boston University (76-67), but blew Marist off the floor (79-59) the next night. A long recuperation period by the sophomore scorer is going to force Coach Karl Hobbs to lean on the other returning players (Tony Taylor, Joseph Katuka, Andre Ware, Jabari Edwards) to pick up a larger share of the offense. Projected (preseason) to finish around the middle of the Atlantic-10 Conference, a recuperation that stretches into conference play could really hurt the Colonials' chances to build on the progress last season.
4. Tennessee had a strong pod or really has some work to do. Probably both. The Volunteers dealt themselves Belmont (of the Atlantic Sun Conference) as their first round opponent, and managed a nine point win despite leading by only one, 77-76, with 0:36 left. The Vols scored the last eight points at the line, as the Bruins, who hit 7-22 from beyond the arc up to that point, missed a pair of three point attempts (and a two point attempt), could not rebound those misses and had to fall back on possession fouls to regain the ball. Against their second round opponent, Missouri State of the MVC, Tennessee managed to carry the day by four points. The game was a tug-of-war for the lead though the Vols pushed the bulge out to double digits once -- for some two minutes -- in the first half. The Bears took their last lead, 36-33, about five minutes into the second half, and though they could only hold it for a single possession, they were not, through the end of the game, more than two possessions away from a tie or lead. Maybe Tennessee's Bruce Pearl was distracted with other matters.

The Schedules...
The consolation pods will play out on Monday and Tuesday (11/22 & 11/23) of next week. The Championship Bracket is scheduled for Madison Square Garden. On Wednesday (11/24) the semi-finals will be played at 7:00 pm (Virginia Commonwealth vs Tennessee) and 9:00 pm (UCLA vs Villanova). The finals (and third place game) are scheduled for Friday, 2:00 pm (Third Place) and 5:00 pm (Championship).

What We Anticipate
From a log5 and offensive/defensive efficiencies perspective, it Wake's woes may not be over. And the same could be said for Tennessee. The Springfield Consolation Bracket could well be the strongest of the three consolation brackets, as two experienced West Coast teams tangle with two heartland squads in what might be a Bracket Buster Tournament in November. I will post break downs for each consolation bracket, along with the Championship Bracket later this weekend.

Further Reading...
The Official NIT Tip Off Site
The Consolation Brackets with sites, teams, dates and game times. Home team bolded.

The 2010 NIT Tip-Off -- a Second Look

Mixing in Pomeroy
As ESPN and other media outlets were pushing the invitational tournament out the door last August I posted an overview and quick analysis of the NIT Tip-Off Tournament, Villanova's early season invitational tournament. In the past two weeks the first round matchups have been officially announced and additional statistical data has been developed (primarily by Ken Pomeroy & the folks at the Basketball Prospectus), so it seems appropriate to revisit the NIT field and review the pod matchups.

The Field -- a Quick Review
Recall the field, sorted by region, with the host team listed first as it appeared in my Auguat post:

(North) Villanova	Big East		(South) Tennessee	SEC
Boston University	Am. East		Arkansas State	Sun Belt
George Washington	A-10		Belmont	Atl. Sun
Marist	MAAC		Missouri State	MVC
(East) Wake Forest	ACC		(West) UCLA	Pac-10
Hampton	MEAC		Nevada	WAC
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA		Pacific	Big West
Winthrop	Big South		Pepperdine	WCC

My overview/analysis relied heavily on 2010 season-ending possession-based stats from Ken Pomeroy's web site. In the past week (or so) the Basketball Prospectus has published it's preview for the season, a work that provides a preview for all 345 D1 teams. Ken Pomeroy has also released his Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) and project "starting" offensive and defensive efficiencies for every team in D1. So, armed with new numbers, it is time to take another look at the field.

For each pod site, I have given the revised possession-based information for each team.

The East Region
The NIT folks locked up the pod hosts over a year ago. I have to think this would have made more sense for the 2012 or 2013 tournament, after Wake Forest's new head coach Jeff Bzdelik had time to settle in and assemble "his" team. The teams are paired according to their first round games (Wake vs Hamption and Virginia Commonwealth vs Winthrop)...

	2011 Projected
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
Wake Forest	70.1	104.2	98.3	0.6603
Hampton	66.7	90.1	99.4	0.2456
VCU	68.0	109.9	96.1	0.8234
Winthrop	65.2	93.5	99.3	0.3335

The preponderance of previews project a lower division ACC conference finish for the Deacons. While Wake Forest will take their first round game (versus Hampton) by a comfortable margin (according to Pomeroy -- and to a very high degree of confidence too), but they have to pray that Winthrop will upset Virginia Commonwealth, as a second round match-up with Shaka Smart's VCU squad is the upset special for this tournament. A "log5 take" on the second round match-up between the Deacons and Rams suggests a Rams win to a 70.6% certainty. While I did not factor for home court advantage, Joel Coliseum cannot match New Mexico's Pit for intimidation, and even the Pit would be hard pressed to overcome a 2-to-1 log5 winning margin. Yikes. The pod losers will be routed to a consolation bracket to be hosted at the campus of one of the losing schools. Maybe Wake will host one of the consolation sites.

West Region
UCLA's rebuilding job is apparent by the PWP (as computed by Pomeroy). Which (again) points to the problem of locking up the pod hosts a year or more in advance of the tournament...

	2011 Projected
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
UCLA	66.3	111.5	95.1	0.8617
Pepperdine	67.1	98.3	101.1	0.4474
Nevada	68.7	98.5	104.3	0.3405
Pacific	62.6	105.6	98.7	0.6846

I wrote in the August post that the pod scheduler would resist the temptation to schedule by name and match-up Nevada with UCLA in the first (rather than second) round. No one listens to me anyway. The Pacific-Nevada game should be pretty good, but the Wolfpack is much depleted, and though they are "officially" the #8 seed in the tournament field, they will not survive Pacific. This pod could be the second "most likely" second round upset in the tournament if it comes to a UCLA-Pacific match. Pacific is not favored (at this point -- that could change based on early games...), theirs and UCLA's PWPs hint at a close second round game with UCLA holding a 74.2% certainty of winning. Should seed holds through the first round however, UCLA has to be heavily favored to brush aside any challenge from the Wolfpack.

South Region
The revised numbers turned Tennessee's pod into the most challenging of the field, though the Vols remain the strong favorite...

	2010 Adjusted
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
Tennessee	68.3	110.4	90.9	0.9028
Belmont	69.3	105.0	96.7	0.7191
Missouri St.	65.5	109.2	96.4	0.8085
Arkansas St.	67.0	97.5	99.0	0.4571

I observed in August the Belmont-Missouri State game would most likely be the best of the tournament...in the first round anyway. Tennessee, it turns out, will face Belmont in the first round, while Missouri State drew Arkansas State. Both the Bears and Red Wolves return substantial percentages of their 2010 minutes and points, but Pomeroy calls the Missouri State-Arkansas State game for Missouri State (by 11 points) to an 84% "certainty" (that's pretty strong). Tennessee takes their game (according to the log5 forumula) game with Belmont (by 12 points) to a 87% certainty. I was a little surprised Coach Bruce Pearl did not take Arkansas State as their first round opponent, but Belmont will help the Vols' RPI more than Arkansas State. The second round game should go to the Vols also, with a log5 calculated certainty of 68.7% (cannot adjust until games are played), Wake-VCU aside, this is probably the most competitive second round game involving a pod host.

North Region
The games are scheduled for the Pavilion, a shame since they may have been able to sellout the Well Fargo Center (or whatever they are calling the Wach this season), but probably could not get the facility for two consecutive days...

	2010 Adjusted
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
Villanova	70.3	114.0	93.5	0.9079
Marist	65.9	94.0	104.3	0.2316
George Washington	67.0	102.2	97.2	0.6398
Boston University	68.3	103.0	99.9	0.5853

The first round match-ups will pit Villanova against Marist, with George Washington, the A-10's representative in this tournament, matched with Boston University. The Wildcats are favored (log5 formula) with a 98% certainty (a 25+ point margin), probably the most decisive first round in the tournament. The GW-BU game will be more competitive (probably the most competitive game of the first round), with Pomeroy (and log5) favoring George Washington by a point, at 56%. 56% is not quite toss-up territory, but very close as suggested by the computed one point margin. Should seed hold, expect Villanova and GWU will face off for the second round and pod win, with Villanova favored to an 84.3% certainty. That would be the least competitive second round game in the field.

The Semi-Finals and Beyond
The official bracket confirms the committee is looking for a Tennessee - Villanova final. Villanova was seeded #1 in the field, while Tennessee is seeded #2. Villanova will meet #4 seed UCLA while Tennessee drew #3 seed Wake Forest (hmmm). Virginia Commonwealth, should the Rams upset Wake, will draw Tennessee, which ought to be a good matchup for the favored Vols. Staying with Pomeroy's preseason PWP, Tennessee is projected to win with a confidence of 66.7%. Neutral site computations are a bit easier. Expect a last update with some log5 projections after the pod winners are settled.

Further Reading...
My August "Too Early" post.
The Official NIT Tip Off Site
Other Early Season Invitationals with teams, dates and sites. From CBS.

Returning Minutes and PWP -- the A-10 Going Into 2011

How Many Bids?
Though speculation at the midpoint of the Atlantic 10's 2010 regular conference season had as many as five, teams "in" or "right side of the bubble" for the NCAA Tournament, only three (Richmond, Temple and Xavier) were eventually invited. Seeded at #5 (Temple), #6 (Xavier) and #7 (Richmond), two of the three exited quickly, but Xavier did manage to go to the Sweet Sixteen where they bowed out to Kansas State after two overtimes. I developed an aerial that mapped the offensive and defensive efficiencies of the conference back in July which strongly suggested the conference had a number of very competitive teams last season. In addition to the three NCAA-bound teams, the conference also sent two to the NITs where Rhode Island ran to the semi-final round (eliminated by North Carolina) and Dayton won it all (beating North Carolina). Two were also invited to the CBI post season tournament, and ironically both were eliminated by the same VCU team that won the championship. George Washington was eliminated in the first round, while St. Louis eliminated three teams (Indiana State, Wisconsin-Green Bay and Princeton) before being eliminated by VCU in the championship series (0-2 in best of three). The aerial below maps returning minutes for the 2011 season each team's overall Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) as determined by their play throughout the season against the conference averages for both. The table below lists the schools alphabetically, with percentage of returning minutes and PWP, along with the difference between the school's percentages and the average for the conference.

	Pct. (n * 100)			Difference (n-Avg)
Team	Min.	PWP		Min.	PWP
Charlotte	72.7	70.7		+7.8	+3.3
Dayton	50.3	91.7		-14.6	+24.6
Duquesne	73.7	56.2		+8.8	-11.1
Fordham	53.2	14.0		-11.7	-53.3
George Washington	75.3	66.5		+10.4	-0.8
La Salle	49.9	52.2		-19.0	-15.1
Massachusetts	78.5	52.1		+13.6	-15.2
Rhode Island	60.7	82.6		-4.2	+15.2
Richmond	68.9	87.5		+4.0	+20.2
Saint Joseph's	53.5	49.4		-11.4	-18.3
St. Bonaventure	58.1	59.6		-6.8	-7.7
St. Louis	82.7	74.4		+17.8	+7.1
Temple	65.9	92.2		+1.0	+25.9
Xavier	69.3	93.7		+4.4	+26.4
Average	64.9	67.3
Std Dev	11.40	22.24

The Atlantic-10's conference-wide PWP average, 67.3, reflects a good out of conference winning percentage versus all opponents. The conference may schedule it's share of cupcakes, but with a conference representative in virtually every early season invitational tournament, not to mention annual home-away series with teams from most of the five "above the red line" conferences, the average PWP is a fair reflection of where the conference ranks in the D1 pecking order. As preparation for a longer look at the A-10's prospects going into the 2011 season, I decided to map each team's PWP and percentage of returning minutes into a scatter chart...

And judging from the distribution of the teams, I would suggest the answer to ESPN's lead-in question (rhetorical most likely, for the headlines) to their Summer Shootaround article (posed again above -- "How many bids?") is "At least as many as 2010, but if not more, then most certainly better seeds" -- if there are no surprises. The scatter chart shows five teams in to the upper right quadrant, where teams that return more than the conference average for minutes and had a higher than conference average PWP last season, are mapped. While the scatter chart is no guarantee of results (everyone still has to play the games, that's the fun of the season, right?), it is a visual that can provide a quantitative perspective as a counterpart to the flurry of predictions. In "above the Red Line" conference, teams in the upper right quadrant generally perform at or better than the previous season (conference record, rank), while teams in the lower left (returning minutes and last season's PWP less than the conference average, a double hit that suggests performance will lag) generally perform at or below their previous season's conference record/rank. The distribution also suggests competition in the Atlantic-10 will be tough next season as so many winning teams return large percentages of their playing time -- teams that won last season return players who know how to win. Questions of talent aside, that should indicate it will be even more difficult for freshmen-led teams to break through next season. There are a number of questions with particular programs...

About Charlotte
When a team that maps into the "Above Average" quadrant has a new coach, it almost always means their former coach moved on to (bigger and better...) things. Not so with the 49ers, who fired the winningest coach in their program's history and turn to a Thad Matta assistant coach to take up the program reins. The fan-base was supportive of AD Judy Rose's decision to terminate Bobby Lutz, and bring in Alan Major as his successor, a response that suggests the desire for change was widespread. That the program suffered no significant post succession transfer losses suggests the players are on board. If Bobby Lutz had moved on to another head coaching job (he landed on the Iowa State staff as an associate head coach, a situation that should benefit both Lutz and newbie Head Coach Fred Hoiberg) and Coach Major had head coaching experience (leading a winning program) before moving over to Charlotte, predicting good things for the 49ers in 2011 would be a no-brainer. As it is, arguments that Charlotte will finish in the A-10's upper division are persuasive. The key for Charlotte will be if Coach Major addresses the 49ers defense (their Achilles Heel last season), find a good successor to the point guard position and avoid the temptation to retool the offense (it was good in 2010).

Dayton & Rhode Island...Coming or Going?
Both teams performed well in the NIT, a tournament commonly believed to be a good stepping stone to the NCAA, especially for the teams that get to New York City. Both programs have, however, seen a good percentage of their rotation minutes (and points) move on. Rhode Island suffered a few disappointments on the recruiting trail, but Coach Jim Baron managed to recoup those losses with a number of mid and late summer recruits. While not a "returning Ram", Dan West does have a year of JUCO ball and should bring a few more points to the back court. Dayton faces a similar loss of (starting & rotation) minutes. Coach Gregory is known for his deep rotation, but having two stellar wings in Chris Johnson and Chris Wright, six additional returning squad members and an MVC transfer guard (Josh Parker from Drake) who practiced with the Flyers last season should make for a good bounce back. The Flyers have additional back court (where they lost quite a few minutes) in Juwan Staten, a freshman who, if recruiting gurus are correct, should be in the thick of the A-10 Rookie of the Year race this season (the Dagger Blog has a worthwhile interview with Staten, if you have the time).

The Situation in St. Louis
Most thought the Billikens dodged a bullet when local prosecutor Jennifer Joyce declined prosecution in a sexual assault case, but a University Judicial Committee has also heard the case and according to reports rendered a decision that the players have appealed. While details of the decision will not be announced until the players appeal has been adjudicated, rumors suggest that the Committee assessed a punishment that included a one year suspension, coupled with a ban from on-campus housing when the players return to school. A school suspension would render the players unavailable in 2011, a huge disruption to the Billiken program, which if true, would drop Coach Majerus' squad into the lower right quadrant with Dayton and Rhode Island.

Saint Joseph's Dream Class
Head Coach Phil Martelli brings the best incoming class of the conference to Hawk Hill this season. Will that group of freshmen be able to reverse the program's fortunes in 2011? They may well be, individually, better than the squad Coach Martelli put on the court last season, but with better competition the Hawks may be hard pressed to match their five conference win mark from 2010.

Observations...
...as I reviewed the table and chart a few points came to mind:
1. The standard deviation for returning minutes was just over 11%. The standard deviation for the PWP was nearly twice that of returning minutes, suggesting there is a rather large gap in the best and worst (as measured by PWP) in the conference. A quick check of the numbers shows that Fordham, at whose variance from the PWP average, -53.3, is more than twice the variance of Xavier's 23.4, the "best" PWP in the conference. Fordham, ranked #304 (out of 347 in Division 1) presents quite a challenge for new Head Coach Tom Pecora. These Rams went 0-16 last season, a mark Coach Pecora should be able to exceed. But Fordham will probably not be competitive for #13 place in the conference.
2. Although he has upped the Bonnies' number of conference wins each year of his tenure, if the conference is as tough as I expect next season, Coach Mark Schmidt may be hard pressed to improve that conference win total (7) in his fourth season in Olean.
3. Massachusetts and George Washington should be interesting conference story lines this season. Both return a lot of minutes in programs that have struggled of late. A more competitive conference race may mean neither team shows improvement in their respective conference won-loss records, though both could actually make progress. Crucial numbers to check would include efficiency differentials (offensive efficiency - defensive efficiency) per Ray Floriani's College Chalk Talk article about efficiency differentials. For the coaching staffs though, the statistic may be too esoteric for results-oriented Athletic Directors.
4. The conference returns an average of (about) 65% of their minutes in 2011, down very slightly from their 2010 returning minutes (about 67%). The standard deviation, at just over 11, was lower than 2010's 13, suggesting there is less variance going into 2011 than there was going into 2010.

The 2010 NIT Tip-Off -- A Too Early Look at the Field

Filling Out the Field
News about early season invitationals for the 2011 season have been leaking out in dribs and drabs for the past two months. The NIT Tip Off, operated by the Metropolitan Intercollegiate Basketball Association, owners and operators of the post season NIT, was inaugurated in 1985 as a counter move to the dwindling prospects for post season event (and later purchased by the NCAA as part of the settlement of MIBA's anti-trust law suit against the NCAA). From the first season, the event attracted a field of the top schools, and continues to do so every season. A move to the pod schedule format a number of years ago gives the tournament's preliminary round(s) a look and feel similar to a number of TV and impresario backed events like the Paradise Jam, the Legends Classic among others. Like the Legends Classic, the preliminary rounds are hosted at four separate sites -- the four top seeds. Unlike the Legends however, the pod hosts, heavily favored by high-major status and home court advantage, must win in order to advance to the Championship rounds (semi and finals) in New York City. The pod hosts for this edition of the tournament are Villanova (North), Tennessee (South), Wake Forest (East) and UCLA (West). The pod rounds (the preliminary rounds) will match the host and three invited teams to two games at the host site. First round winners at each pod site will play a second round game to determine who advances to New York City for the semi-final round. The three teams at each site who do not advance to New York City will play two additional Consolation Round games at site of the three highest seeded teams.

The Field
Four of the six above the "Red Line" conferences, the ACC, Big East, Pac-10 and SEC, are represented and will host the four sites for the preliminary rounds. The 12 "visiting" teams are drawn from conferences generally local to each pod site. The field, sorted by region, with the host team listed first:

(North) Villanova	Big East		(South) Tennessee	SEC
Boston University	Am. East		Arkansas State	Sun Belt
George Washington	A-10		Belmont	Atl. Sun
Marist	MAAC		Missouri State	MVC
(East) Wake Forest	ACC		(West) UCLA	Pac-10
Hampton	MEAC		Nevada	WAC
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA		Pacific	Big West
Winthrop	Big South		Pepperdine	WCC

The teams are listed alphabetically within each region. The field definitely has a "bi-coastal" flavor, as the Big East, ACC and Pac-10 have many members located along the Atlantic and Pacific coastal region. Note however that the conference affiliation for each of the three "guests" in those three pods also have strong representation along the left and right coastlines. A product no doubt, related to the host sites. I wanted a bit more detail about the participants in each of the preliminary round sites, so tracked down RPI, won-loss records and returning minutes/points from the team sites, and some possession-based stats from Ken Pomeroy's web site. For each pod site, I have given the record information, followed by the possession-based information.

The East Region
The breakdown suggests this could be a very interesting mini-tournament. In the same way that throwing a party in the middle of a remodeling project is interesting...

	2010 Season			2011 Returning
	RPI	W	L	Mins.	Pts.
Wake Forest	39	19	10	32.9	34.1
Hampton	283	14	18	66.8	59.1
VCU	136	22	9	82.7	85.3
Winthrop	160	17	13	69.7	73.9

Pod hosting for a team with an RPI (2010) of #39 makes good sense. Looking no farther, one could tease out a seed arrangement that would have Wake Forest play Hampton and Virginia Commonwealth (VCU) play Winthrop (of the Big South Conference) in their first round game. Consider however that Wake hired Jeff Bzdelik barely four months ago, and the former Colorado (of the Big 12) coach has had to replace over 65% of his minutes and points from last season's squad. And wait, it gets worse...

	2010 Adjusted
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
Wake Forest	69.9	106.5	91.4	0.852
Hampton	67.5	94.3	99.2	0.358
VCU	68.9	113.5	96.1	0.870
Winthrop	65.4	89.5	95.7	0.316

Coach Bzdelik's Colorado struggled during his tenure, but pace and adjusted offensive efficiency were about the same as Wake's over the same period...but Wake Forest had a much better defense. VCU on the other hand appears to be in pretty good shape. I was a little surprised by the Rams' strong Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP), but the squad did win the post season CBI Tournament to close out the 2010 season. All things equal (while checking out Wake's and VCU's PWP), I would favor Wake by just under whatever they get for home court advantage. VCU's coach, Shaka Smart, however, enters his second season as head coach with over 80% of his squad's minutes and over 85% of their points coming back. Coach Bzdelik may not be able to run full practices with his squad until mid October, but I have to think he is breaking down VCU film now. This could be a very bumpy beginning to his tenure at Wake.

West Region
Like Wakes' Coach Bzdelik, UCLA's coach, Ben Howland, has something of a rebuilding job in 2011, so the timing for accepting an NIT Tip-Off hosting job is interesting...

	2010 Season			2011 Returning
	RPI	W	L	Mins.	Pts.
UCLA	137	14	18	53.4	52.3
Nevada	73	19	12	21.5	12.3
Pacific	128	20	11	66.4	70.5
Pepperdine	303	6	23	99.6	100.0

This region also looks like the host will attempt to entertain while undertaking an rebuilding project. Based on RPI alone, one would think the match-ups would be Nevada versus Pepperdine and UCLA versus Pacific in the first round. Since UCLA hosts however, they get to pick their cupcake, so I suspect the Bruins will take the Wave, while Nevada and Pacific play the under-card match. This West however, is almost as muddy as the East. Nevada may have the better RPI, but second year Coach David Carter faces a rebuilding job even more extensive as Wake's Coach Bzdelik. Presumptive top seed? No actually. In fact the Wolfpack may have a tough time getting by the Tigers in the first round (assuming they are matched with Pacific). Pacific, coached by 24 year veteran Bob Thomason (21 years at Pacific), returns nearly 2/3 of the Tigers' 2010 minutes and over 70% of their points.

	2010 Adjusted
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
UCLA	65.6	105.8	99.2	0.679
Nevada	70.0	111.4	101.3	0.749
Pacific	61.9	104.3	96.3	0.714
Pepperdine	66.7	95.0	109.3	0.167

Looking past the first round games, a Pacific--UCLA match-up would put two teams with very similar profiles head-to-head. They have similar offensive and defensive efficiencies (Pacific is actually a bit better). Coach Howland has no problem with a slightly lower possession rate, should Pacific control the tempo. And again, Pacific's Pythagorean Winning Percentage is higher than UCLA's. Should the Bruins and Tigers survive the first round, this second round match may come down to the Pauley Pavilion's intimidation factor. Will the Tigers be able to filter out the distractions and focus on the game? Pacific's Coach Thomason has a 15-9 record versus Nevada, a 5-2 record versus and incredibly, a 0-0 record versus UCLA.

South Region
Tennessee is probably in the best spot as one of the host sites...

	2010 Season			2011 Returning
	RPI	W	L	Mins.	Pts.
Tennessee	14	25	8	57.1	51.0
Arkansas St.	202	15	14	92.2	92.9
Belmont	135	19	12	80.9	76.6
Missouri St.	90	20	12	89.3	94.6

The RPI-based first round would most likely pit Tennessee against Arkansas State, and Missouri State against Belmont, with the winners -- Tennessee and Missouri State -- facing off for the trip to the Big Apple. The Vols return over half of their minutes (57.1%) and points (51.0%)...just barely, but how challenging, despite the high percentage of returning minutes and points, would either Belmont or Arkansas State be to either the SEC or the Missouri Valley school? As for the second round game, looking just at the table above, it would seem to be at least as competitive as either the East or West Region/pod. But looks can be deceiving...

	2010 Adjusted
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
Tennessee	68.7	108.9	88.5	0.916
Arkansas St.	67.5	97.7	100.5	0.420
Belmont	70.2	101.9	97.9	0.615
Missouri St.	65.5	110.8	98.7	0.792

On paper a first round match-up of Belmont and Missouri State may be the best of the three that would be played over the two days. Both return substantial portions of their squad's minutes and points. While pace can be overblown at times, the nearly five possession difference between the Missouri State and Belmont could be trouble. If Belmont is behind, the Bruins might chafe at the Bears' more deliberate pace. Or if the Bears are beind, they may struggle to stay with the Bruins. In either case, the Vols' pace falls between the Bruins and Bears, so the Vols should have little trouble adjusting if the other team controls the pace.

North Region
Many of the details are sketchy at this point. The dates for the preliminary rounds, and for Villanova, even the site -- will this be moved to the Wells Fargo (nee Wachovia) Center downtown, or will the 'Cats host this on campus at the Pavilion? The Wells Fargo Center would make sense...

	2010 Season			2011 Returning
	RPI	W	L	Mins.	Pts.
Villanova	11	25	8	66.0	62.5
Boston University	144	21	14	43.5	50.9
George Washington	148	16	15	75.3	70.9
Marist	334	1	29	93.9	97.0

Villanova has a connection to each of the other teams in the pod. Boston U Coach Patrick Chambers was an Associate Head Coach at Villanova just two seasons ago. The Terriers were a last minute addition to the Puerto Rico Tip-Off field last November. Though BU has a lot of minutes to replace from last season's squad, I doubt the Wildcats and Terriers will be matched in the first round. That first round opponent will most likely be the Red Foxes of Marist. Head Coach Chuck Martin did stints as an assistant for Bruiser Flint at Drexel, and at St. John's under (former) Coach Norm Roberts. Marist was the destination for former Villanova center Casiem Drummond, who later moved on to Georgetown College in Division 2. While some in the 'Nova Nation may not be happy about Marist's 334 RPI, with 92% of the Red Fox 2010 minutes returning, chances are good Marist will finish with a higher RPI this season.

	2010 Adjusted
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
Villanova	72.4	116.6	94.0	0.923
Boston University	71.2	104.0	97.4	0.679
George Washington	68.2	102.6	96.6	0.665
Marist	64.0	88.1	111.2	0.064

The first round match-ups here therefore, will most likely be Villanova and Marist, with George Washington, the A-10's representative in this tournament, matched with Boston University. Should seed hold, expect Villanova and GWU to face off for the second pod win. For the past three or so pre-seasons Villanova and George Washington have waived the second NCAA-sanctioned exhibition game in favor of an opportunity to conduct a closed scrimmage with each other. Coach Hobbs and Wright are extremely familiar with the other's personnel and style of play (and coaching). I suspect if the 'Cats (and Colonials) participate in a closed scrimmage this pre-season it will not be with each other.

The Semi-Finals and Beyond
I suspect, should the pod hosts' hold through the preliminary rounds, that Villanova and Tennessee will the match-up the NIT would want for the final. The semi-final then would match Villanova with either Wake Forest or UCLA, with Tennessee getting the other.

Further Reading...
The Official NIT Tip Off Site
The Tip-Off Brakets (.pdf format)
Other Early Season Invitationals with teams, dates and sites. From CBS.