Saturday, March 12, 2011

Atlantic 10 Tournament -- Revised log5, Post Quarter Finals

To the Finals
A quick log5 recalculation now that Friday's quarter finals leave only four teams in the field...

Pythag.Prob. Thru
TeamWin %Semito Win
Saint Joseph's0.46320.2710.004

If Temple's probabilities seem a bit low, look at the Owls' probabilities relative to the rest of the field. Coach Dunphy's team emerges as the strongest among the four. While Dayton might have the strongest probability of making it to the Finals (the Flyers' probabilities of beating Saint Joseph's is 72.9%). As Hawks' Coach Phil Martelli said in last night's post game press conference, "The Hawk never dies...we were just -- we were circling...And now we've been able to soar a bit", and it appears that Duquesne's team, eliminated 93-90 in overtime against Saint Joseph's, would have to agree. It will be interesting to see how the Flyers cope with this young, and becoming more confident with each game, squad.

The other semi-final, #3 seed Richmond versus #2 seed Temple will be a more traditional matchup. Temple won in Philadelphia during the season and Richmond's perimeter players, Justin Harper and Kevin Anderson, shot a combined 4-14 in their 55-45 win over Rhode Island Friday night. They will need to do better against Temple Saturday. Temple however, is not without problems of their own. Coach Dunphy lost two more players in the season's final weeks, Michael Eric is out for the season, and Scootie Randall is day-to-day with a foot problem. Dunphy did not need the junior as the Owls beat cross town rival La Salle by 20, 96-76, on Friday night. The Owls, who played with a seven man rotation for much of the game, will need him soon.

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