Friday, March 6, 2009

Providence #02 Post Game -- the Class of 2009

Senior Night was 2 weeks ago. The appointed victem was Rutgers, and the Wildcats almost apologetically allowed the Scarlet Knights to linger well into the 2nd half, before too gently putting the Knights out into that gentle night. Tonight the Wildcats, Class of 2009, said goodbye to their home in the Pavilion. And they did in their new style, rushing the Providence College Friars out the door in an ungentlemanly fashion. The breakdown by halves...

 Offense Defense

Half Time Adjustments...
With the exception of 2FGM defense, the first half looked like a typical Villanova game -- defense was on, turnovers negate/balance loose shooting defense (note the Stl% under defense, the 'Cats gambled quite a bit on defense and forced a lot of turnovers). As the table above suggests, Nova's offensive efficiency was 113.2, above their adjusted efficiency (111.5), even as their defensive efficiency, 96.2, was not quite up to their adjusted efficiency (90.8), but still below 100, generally considered the dividing line between "good" and "bad" defense. The teams traded buckets and the lead...for 5 minutes. The 14:50 mark of the 1st half had the 'Cats in the lead, and while the Friars hung with them for the next 30 or so minutes, they did not look as if they would even retake the lead, much less take the game. The preview posted earlier noted that shooting efficiency (eFG%) and turnover rates (TORate) might serve as keys to a win (or loss). The red & green highlighted sections in the table (above) monitor how well Villanova performed in those and other categories, relative to season-long numbers. Red again dominates on the defensive side of the table, but mostly confind to the 2nd half numbers. Coming into the game Providence was the #45 ranked team for offensive efficiency (per Ken Pomeroy's Stats Page) with a rating of 111.0 (adjusted). The Wildcats managed to hold the Friars below their offensive efficiency, despite allowing them to convert 2 pointers to better than their average (52.5). The 'Cats did a better job on 3 point defense -- in the 1st half.

1. Scottie Reynolds again had a great game at the Friar's expense. He scored 29 points, converting at an eFG% rate of 88.5, and a PPWS of 1.65, all in 36 minutes of play. Scottie was murder from the field, hitting 9 of 13 FGAs (5-9, 4-4 3s/2s). The game did not come down to 1-2 possessions; the Friars did not implement a foul for possession strategy.
2. Dwayne Anderson recorded an "Eye Candy" type game, scoring 19 points in 17 minutes of play. Though logging only 43% of the minutes at the wing he put on a performance more typical of Dante, Scottie or Corey F, taking 39% of the available shots and hitting at a 77.3% (eFG%) clip. His PPWS was 1.59. His Pavilion Swan Song featured 7 rebounds (along with Dante he posted strong offensive rebounding percentages on a night when the Wildcat's rebounding was a little down), 3 assists, 1 block and 4 steals. He might be ready for the Big East Tournament.
3. The offense, based on Shot%, appears to have gone through Cunningham, Reynolds, Stokes and Anderson. Reynolds, Stokes and Anderson had very efficient nights. Dante was off just a little -- he has been drawing some attention from defenses lately.
4. The night was about sharing the limelight and the game -- a most appropriate closing for the class that has won more games (97 and counting...) than any other. In the game where this recorded the 1st 25 win regular season in 57 years all 8 members of the regular rotation scored points and grabbed rebounds. The team had a 74% assist rate, posting a 3.71:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Senior Frank Tchuisi also played for a minute, grabbing a board and scoring from the free throw line. The night was an outstanding example of team offense. Reggie Redding led the team with 11 assists.

Ref Notes
The crew was manned by veterans Karl Hess, Jamie Luckie and Mike Stuart. All three have run at two earlier Wildcat games this season. The two teams were whistled for a combined total of 42 fouls, high compared to the past few games, but well off the season high game run by the Jim Haney/Curtis Shaw/Michael Stephens crew (53 fouls). Both the home and visiting teams' fouls and free throws were within the standard deviation for Wildcat home games this season. The Wildcats have a 6-1 record when at least one from this crew was running the game.


Villanova Viewpoint Publisher said...

Hello, greyCat-

Once more, fine quantitative analysis... some thoughts...

I concur that it was great for Tchuisi to record a point in his final Pavilion game...

It was great to see the assist level so high, particularly from Redding (11)... On the 3.71-1 ratio of turnovers to assists, that you noted... I assume that's the highest ratio of the season for any one game...

What would you attribute as the cause for such a high number of assists? Particularly after the difficulty attaining assists in the Georgetown loss on Saturday, where we had nine assists and 20 turnovers?

Anderson's explosion would have been great news if he had played most of the game, but the fact that he did it in so few minutes is remarkable (just 17 minutes)... you noted the stat that Anderson played "43% of the minutes at the wing" - what would his typical percentage of minutes at the wing be?

Keep up the great work...

greyCat said...

Thanks for the note Publisher. A few following comments/reactions...

It was the highest assist-to-turnover ratio this season. The 'Cats appear to have warmed up with Notre Dame. They had an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.8 in their game with the Irish on Monday. They were also over 2:1 in their 2nd Marquette game. All were high paced (lots of possessions) games with a good number of points scored in transition. Note also that neither Notre Dame nor Providence have particularly good defensive turnover rates (according to Ken Pomeroy's Turnover Ranking). Notre Dame is ranked #343, while Providence is ranked #204.

Dwayne's ytd stats indicate he get 48% of the PT at his position (the #2/#3? It's hard to tell with these Wildcats), but remember he was out for the first month of the season. In games where he has appeared he has averaged about 25.5 minutes (or about 63.8% of the available minutes). For Big East games Dwayne has average 27.9 (nearly 70% of the minutes). 43% is definitely low.

Villanova Viewpoint Publisher said...

Hello, greyCat-

Thanks for the detailed reply... a couple of other notes, some from the preview:

1) Do you think that PC has a decent shot at an at-large bid, given the RPI that they have? Did they need to defeat 'Nova on the road, a win that would have bolstered their profile substantially for the Committee?

2) How much of a factor will Anderson be in New York and the NCAAs, given the explosion last night, on both the offense and defensive ends?

greyCat said...

I frankly prefer to deconstruct the brackets after they have been announced, to see what the Selection Committee was thinking as they put the field together. Dan Hanner over at Just Another Basketball Blog linked to a few bracketology sites just the other week. The one I have been using most often lately is Crashing the Dance. Those guys have Providence out right now. It appears that with an RPI of #69 they could use a win or two next week in New York City. One that gives them a neutral floor win (or two) against a Top 50/25 team. If it were up to me I would put them in. I thought they played Villanova tough at Providence, and they were in the game for the first 35 minutes.

Can't really tell what Dwayne will do next week, but the team has managed to consistently get a good game from 2 of Shane, Corey S and Dwayne. Some combination has supplied offense and defense (not necessarily the same combination of guys). Shane had several good games offensively lately. He is really putting some nice minutes together. His play was definitely disrupted by his foul situation on Thursday. I suspect all three know this will be the last BET for Shane and Dwayne, and they will give it their best.

This has been a terrific team, I have enjoyed watching them so much this season. Hopefully they will give us a few more.