Thoughts on Villanova's Big East Schedule

The Big East unveiled the composite conference schedule this afternoon, just after releasing the conference television schedule.

Date	Opponent	H/A		Day	TV
28-Dec	West Virginia	A		Wed.
1-Jan	Marquette	A		Sun	ESPNU
5-Jan	South Florida	H		Thur
8-Jan	DePaul	H		Sun
11-Jan	Syracuse	H		Wed.	ESPN2
14-Jan	Cincinnati	A		Sat
18-Jan	Seton Hall	H		Wed.	ESPNU
21-Jan	St. John's	A		Sat	ESPNU
25-Jan	Louisville	A		Wed.	ESPN
28-Jan	Marquette	H		Sat	ESPN/ESPN2
5-Feb	Pittsburgh	A		Sun	ESPN
7-Feb	Providence	H		Tues
15-Feb	South Florida	A		Wed.	ESPN/ESPN2
18-Feb	Notre Dame	H		Sat	ESPNU
20-Feb	Connecticut	H		Mon	ESPN
25-Feb	Georgetown	A		Sat	CBS
1-Mar	Rutgers	A		Mon	ESPN/ESPN2
3-Mar	Cincinnati	H		Wed.	ESPN/ESPN2

The Good...
1. The Wildcats play a bit more than half of their schedule before February 1. Given how unkind February has been the past two seasons, that might be a blessing. In particular Villanova plays only three games in the first two weeks of that month.
2. Taking Notre Dame and Connecticut at home at the end of February should be good news, especially if the 'Cats are playing confidently. I suspect the Wildcats and Irish will be competing for the same seed in the Big East Tournament (and hopefully a Dance bid). I should be good to have the home court advantage under those circumstances.
3. 12 of Villanova's 18 conference games will be carried by an ESPN outlet or by CBS.

The Bad...
1. The Wildcats have three "extended" road trips of two games each. They may be spaced "symmetrically", at the beginning, near the middle and at the end, of the conference season, but that is hardly compensation for getting three of them.
2. Drawing St. John's in late January could prove to be a case of bad timing. The Johnnies will put a very inexperienced squad on the court next season. By mid/late January the freshmen should be "getting it", and still be fresh enough to take down some big names. I would have rather seen the 'Cats draw them early (late December/early January) before they acclimate to Coach Lavin's system, or late (late February/early March) when Freshman Fatigue has set in.
3. President's Day with Connecticut again? This is becoming a tradition. Unfortunately for Villanova, Connecticut has consistently gotten the better of the 'Cats on that day.

The Ugly...
1.Villanova has not had a lot of success when they start the conference season on the road. This season is especially unhelpful given the opponents are West Virginia and Marquette, two teams that will most likely compete with Villanova for spots in the top half of the conference. The Wildcats could very well start the Big East season staring up from an 0-2 hole.
2. The second extended road trip takes Villanova to St. John's first, then Louisville. As offered earlier, the Johnnies is scheduled into the one spot in the season when Lavin's Young Guns will most likely be hot. This could turn into the second o'fer road trip of the season.
3. Playing a road game at Rutgers. Not my favorite venue, especially after the collapse in Piscataway last season. I would much rather have seen this game rotated "back home" to the Pavilion this season. Coming as the second game, after Georgetown, in the Wildcats' last extended road trip is even worse. Those are two very "losable" games. The timing and sequence could make this very bad...and possibly the third o'fer road trip of the season.

Traditionally the key to a 0.500 or better conference season starts at home, the home team has to dominate. If the team harbors any hope of a better than 0.500 record, then they have to accumulate a winning record on the road. And it should be better than 5-4. Three difficult two game road trips could put the 'Cats in an 0-6 hole. Ouch.

The Big East Conference 2012 -- Home & Road Opponents

Who Drew a Short Straw?
Most of the commentary about conference opponents has devolved into a recitation of the opposing slate laced with opinions (with a heavy reliance on memory and recollection...) of whether this player is returning, that recruit will make an impact and the other team was good/bad or will be better/worse than they were last season. With the many of the the "summer report" cycle winding down, many of the academic casualties going into the fall semester still unannounced, the NCAA Clearing House yet to process many in the incoming class, there is more speculation than fact available when looking at the home-away slates...

Maters of Their Domains?
Win the home games -- one of the first rules of conference play, comes into play every season. Running the home slate will not guarantee a top finish in conference play (think of Louisville's 9-0 record at the Yum! last season; the Cards still finished in a three-way tie for third and took the #4 seed at Madison Square Garden), but doing just better than 0.500 will not get your team into the bye seeds (think Villanova's #9 seed on a 5-4 home record). If your team is expected to challenge for a bye seed, which suggests your favorites ought to be able to go toe-to-toe with the conference heavyweights (...which would suggest your team is one of the conference heavyweights...), then common sense would dictate that the toughest opponents should come to visit. On homecourt your guys have the high ground. On the other hand, you your team is struggling for respectability, and a place in the post season conversation, then running up a big home court record (and taking your lumps on the road...) would be the better strategy...assuming your guys can keep it respectable on the road. Excluding the mirrors (I looked at those pairings in an earlier post), which teams got a draw that works for their strategy? I looked at home opponents...

	Opps	Ret.
Team	PWP	Min%	Comments
Seton Hall	0.448	0.491	'Ville, NDU & Pitt!
DePaul	0.441	0.645	Not a good draw for needs
St. John's	0.421	0.631	Thrown into the deep end?
Syracuse	0.414	0.519	What they want
Connecticut	0.408	0.494	A puzzle?
Rutgers	0.396	0.556	'Nati & Cuse
Marquette	0.387	0.476	A rebuilding year?
Notre Dame	0.380	0.687	A lot of routs in South Bend
Georgetown	0.369	0.556	RU, USF & PC...
Louisville	0.366	0.538	Swap Rutgers for 'Nati?
West Virginia	0.363	0.612	'Vill & 'Nati toughest
Providence	0.362	0.547	Host the Huskies
South Florida	0.352	0.432	Favorable for Bulls?
Cincinnati	0.337	0.678	Returning mins high
Villanova	0.331	0.661	See above
Pittsburgh	0.330	0.486	Cincinnati and...?!

The table orders the conference by average Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) of the non-mirror visiting teams. I also averaged that slate's returning minutes, to give myself an idea of whether each team would face a home slate with personnel similar to the personnel they faced in 2011. The conference average for returning minutes next season (as of July...) is 56.1%. The results brought a few surprises.

One of the more interesting questions is where Connecticut will fit in 2012. The Huskies, who finished #9 in the conference last season with a 4-5 road record, and will not have the services of Kemba Walker (or Jamal Coombs-McDaniels) next season, remain an enigma. Georgetown, Louisville and Villanova may count themselves lucky in that they get to host a sophomore-dominated squad next season without having to take a rematch in Storrs. St. John's, which returns all of 4.8% of their 2011 minutes (and 3.7% of their scoring), is another wildcard. Coach Steve Lavin will have an extremely talented -- but extremely young -- roster to mold. The Red Storm sported a relatively modest 0.333 road PWP last season, even lower than their 4-5 record would suggest. But given the virtual makeover for 2012, even 0.333 may be an overstatement. Will Marquette, Pittsburgh and Seton Hall regret not drawing the Johnnies at the Garden as a swap for say Notre Dame, Syracuse and Cincinnati (repsectively)? Though most expect Pittsburgh to contend again next season (Jamie Dixon has the best conference record of any Big East coach over the past five seasons), the Panthers cannot look to a favorable schedule mix as a boost. Of their non-mirror visitors, Cincinnati (0.447), Georgetown (0.425) and Villanova (0.405) have the highest road PWPs in 2011 conference games. Of those three, only the Bearcats return more than the conference average for minutes next season. For Cincinnati, the high percentage of returning minutes, combined with high percentage of returning scoring from their visitors will make matching their 2011 conference home record (6-3) a challenge. If the Bearcats want to move into the conference elites however, they will have to dominate that slate.

...And On the Road
The road strategy reverses for those aspiring to bye bids -- take the weakest teams in their buildings. For those struggling in conference play, opportunities to win are maximized at home, so take the conference elites on the road and hope to stem the bleeding in the low double digits...

	Opps	Ret.
Team	PWP	Min%	Comments
Louisville	0.710	0.484	St. John's & WVU skew mins
Notre Dame	0.706	0.471	Johnnies, Hoyas & Hall
Villanova	0.692	0.449	Johnnies, Hoyas & RU skew
DePaul	0.683	0.525	What Demons need?
Providence	0.679	0.503	Good for need?
Georgetown	0.666	0.616	'Ville, Pitt & Cuse Oh my!
South Florida	0.643	0.653	DPU only road softie...
Rutgers	0.620	0.627	Matches bubble strategy
Pittsburgh	0.620	0.633	UConn, NDU & Cuse
Seton Hall	0.616	0.654	Cuse & Nova
Marquette	0.612	0.650	Irish, Orange & 'Eers
Syracuse	0.593	0.487	Good match to need
West Virginia	0.580	0.553	Cuse & Huskies
St. John's	0.567	0.555	If team struggles...ouch
Cincinnati	0.558	0.521	A good match for need
Connecticut	0.521	0.596	Tailored to need?

I calculated the PWP for road games (conference only) for each team and averaged those road PWPs for each team's slate of opponents. Again mirrors have been excluded.

For Connecticut, Syracuse, De Paul and Providence, the slate matches the strategy pretty well. The Demons and Friars want wins, and conceding road games to the stronger teams in the conference in exchange for favorable home matchups should be cause for little concern. Each drew a challenging road slate that features Cincinnati and Notre Dame. The Huskies and Orange, by contrast, want their weakest opponents on the road, on the assumption they will beat them no matter where they play. Both feature road games with Rutgers, but other fourth quartile finishers are listed among each team's mirrors. Coach Calhoun's squad will see the Bulls, who sport the weakest 2011 home PWP this side of De Paul. Coach Boeheim drew De Paul, owner of the weakest home PWP last season. Syracuse also drew rebuilding St. John's. If the Storm struggles, this could prove to be a hidden bonus.

Exclusions, Exceptions...ie The Fine Print
The dynamics of a team are not especially predictable. It is rarely in a coach's (or school's) interests to disclose that half the squad does not want to play ball with the other half, or is planning to transfer at the end of the season. Injuries have derailed a team's season and a player's career, and yet remain among the wildcards. Players sometimes behave badly, the type of situation that most fans see far more clearly after the fact than before. All of those however are random and absolutely unknowable. The as yet uncharted elements that can impact a team's ability to successfully navigate their conference schedule...
1. Chronology & Sequence -- will the team draw the easier opponents earlier or later in the conference season? The distribution of "difficulty" might seem even in the preseason or early season, but unknowable events can strengthen or weaken slate as the season progresses. Villanova looked like a world beater eight games into their 2011 conference slate, having taken down Syracuse by double digits on the road, but four weeks later they could not beat South Florida on a neutral court.
2. Home/Away Distribution -- Though the conference tries to schedule no more than two consecutive away games, circumstances can make that impossible. A school may schedule an away out of conference opponent at the beginning or end of an away sequence, adding a level of difficulty (TV money can cloud judgement that way).
3. Youth vs. Maturity -- Common wisdom suggests freshmen-dominated squads "wear out" in the latter stages of the season. Balance that nugget with a countervailing common wisdom notion that freshmen progress as the season lengthens (think Jeremy Lamb here). How can we use that information when determining if the 'Eers (who return 39% of their minutes and 45% of their scoring) will be a better team to host than visit? How about St. John's, which returns 5% or their minutes and 4% of their scoring?

Thoughts on the Wildcats' Slate
The home-road slates are a mixed bag that would help if Villanova proves to be a bubble team next season. The 'Cats, who bring back 52% of their playing time and 47% of their scoring should benefit from drawing a comparatively weak home slate. Leaving out the mirrors, the 'Cats should be able to handle Seton Hall and De Paul, two teams they barely beat at the end of the 2011 season, not to mention Providence, a team that cleaned their clocks, all on the road last season. A youngr Connecticut squad (the Huskies swept the 'Cats in 2011) will visit as well. On the road, Pitt and Louisville will be tough unless everything falls into place for the 'Cats. Georgetown will depend as much on how well the new Hoyas gell as on the Wildcats' maturity. Villanova will revisit Rutgers, a team that beat them in overtime last season, and as been mentioned before, the enigmatic Johnnies will pose a challenge.

The Big East's 2012 Mirrors

Pairing Up for 2012
Looks like the Big East schedule maker earned his (her?) pay, as the pairs for 2012 do indeed reflect changes based on the 2011 conference results and the coaches poll taken in May. The 2012 release was actually a bit later in the off season than the 2011 schedule. Though I have been writing about other events over the last 2+ weeks, I developed a profile of each team's home, away and mirror opponents, looking for a moment to review the results and post an analysis. Mirror games constitute 33% of each team's 18 game schedule. These pairings can provide a team with a an advantage (or disadvantage) in conference standing. And a make or break should a team find itself on the bubble...

		BET	Mirror
	PWP	Seed	Opponents
Connecticut	0.611	6.0	NDU, SHU, Cuse
West Virginia	0.610	5.3	NDU, Pitt, RU
Rutgers	0.575	7.0	NDU, SHU,WVU
Cincinnati	0.563	8.7	MU, St. John's, Nova
DePaul	0.555	6.7	Ville, St. John's, SHU
Louisville	0.551	7.0	DPU, Pitt, Cuse
Marquette	0.549	8.0	Nati, GTown, Nova
South Florida	0.543	8.3	Pitt, PC, Nova
Pittsburgh	0.504	8.3	Ville, USF, WVU
Syracuse	0.487	8.7	UConn, Ville, PC
Notre Dame	0.485	9.7	UConn, RU, WVU
Villanova	0.476	10.7	Nati, MU, USF
Providence	0.468	9.0	GTown, USF, Cuse
Georgetown	0.467	10.0	MU, PC, St. Johns
St. John's	0.399	10.0	Nati, DPU, GTown
Seton Hall	0.307	12.7	UConn, DPU, RU
Average	0.509	8.5
Std Dev.	0.080	1.89

Note the table contains each team's mirrors. I averaged the Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) and Big East Tournament seed for each team's mirror opponents.

Observations
When developing the schedule, the conference polls the coaches for their conference ranking, as usually a first step to organize the conference into tiers. ESPN and CBS will typically weigh in with ideas for televized games and the conference has a standing commitment (which varies from year-to-year) to maintain traditional rivalries. Coaches poll results are not made public until Basketball Media Day (usually the third week in October), though occasionally a coach may reveal parts of his ballot early. On paper the objective of the mirrors is balance (the mix of mirrors should produce a "middling opponent"), the potential for more TV eyeballs can leave that

While the conference schedule maker preserved a few of historic rivalries ("The Backyard Brawl" -- Pittsburgh and West Virginia, "The Battle of New Jersey" -- Rutgersand Seton Hall...), others have been put on hiatus...for next season anyway. Cincinnati's and Louisville's annual home-and-home dating back to their CUSA (and Metro Conference?) days is gone. And the Orange Nation and Hoya Faithful seem torn between apoplexy and mild indifference (not a strong opponent) that Georgetown and Syracuse will meet only once (in the Dome) in 2012. The single game drew (generally unfavorable) reactions from several mainstream media sources. Syracuse travels well, probably the best in the conference, encountered severe problems getting tickets, above the visiting team allotment, to the Verizon Center (Georgetown's home court) for last season's game as the Hoya Athletic Department made a concerted effort to sell out the arena to the Georgetown fanbase.

Connecticut seems to have drawn the short straw for mirros next season, appropriate given their National Championship (not to mention Big East Tournament title) in 2011. Given that Coach Calhoun can anticipate about 60.8% of his 2011 minutes back in 2012 (the conference average right now is 56%), perhaps it is justice. Or maybe not, as the Huskies will return only 53% of their scoring. Among the Huskies' mirrors Notre Dame brings back 49% of their minutes (ouch...), Seton Hall brings back 61% and Syracuse brings back nearly 71%. The Orange have to be favored for the regular season title next season; the Hall will return Herb Pope and Jordan Theordore. Despite Notre Dame's lack of experience next season, the Huskies hardly have a walk over in their mirror slate.

Seton Hall's favorable draw (from a PWP standpoint...) may go unexploited given the Pirates lost Jeremy Hazell, Jeff Robinson, Eniel Polynice (graduation/exhausted eligibility) and Jamel Jackson (transfer). They do bring back enough that should Patrik Auda make progress and the bigs recruited by Coach Willard develop, the Pirates could go 3-3 against that slate.

St. John's presents and interesting case study for next season. The Johnnies return <5% (not a typo) of the minutes from the 2011 squad that stormed back into the conference elites with a 12-6 conference record (good for a threeway tie for third place, though the Johnnies took the #5 seed in the BET). Advice to the Johnnies' mirrors (Cincinnati, DePaul and Georgetown) -- get them early (before they gel) or late (freshman fatigue).

If, as I suspect, the Cardinals, Panthers and (mostly) the Orange are the class of the conference, Louisville's Coach Rick Pitino may again be barking at the schedule maker. Louisville is slated to meet both Syracuse and Pittsburgh next season (that is four ready-for-TV matchups), while Syracuse and Pittsburgh will meet only once (at the Dome). The Orange do have to face Connecticut, while the Panthers drew traditional foe West Virginia, as their second mirror. The Mountaineers bring back all of 33.9% of their minutes for 2011, however. The Backyard Brawl may well turn out to be less competitive than previous seasons.

Expect DePaul to improve their record next season, but Coach Oliver Purnell's squad has struggled against the better competition offered in their mirror draw. The opponents they drew, on paper, look like one of the more competitive sets in the conference going into this season. The Blue Demons will better their 1-15 conference record from 2011, but do not be shocked/disappointed if they go 0-6/1-5 against Louisville, St. John's and Seton Hall. 2-4 would be very good; 3-3 a signal that DePaul is ready to compete in the conference.

Many in the Nova Nation looked at Villanova's slate as a step back from some of the elite draws the program has gotten in the past 4-5 seasons. This particular mixed bag of mirrors could easily put the Wildcat at 5-1 or 1-5. Those three posted a collective conference record of 19-35, but all three should be better by the start of the season. The Wildcats have had success (outside of the Big East Tournament...) against Marquette, butthat could change. Expect South Florida to post a better record than 2011. Cincinnati has played tough at home but faltered on the road.