Ten Teams and the Conference, Three Questions Each, Part 5

The "skill camps" are quieting down and summer league is almost over. Teams are preparing for (or have just finished up) their European tour. Before our attention is consumed by the Olympics, a last few questions come to mind about Xavier and the Big East Conference going into the 2016-17 season...

Xavier
With the return of Trevon Bluiett, the X-men losses were limited to Jalen Reynolds and James Farr, two of Xavier's mainstays in the front court, along with wings Remy Abel (a senior) and Larry Austin who transferred to Vanderbilt. Coach Chris Mack anticipated the graduations of Farr and Abel, and knew Reynolds, a junior, would most likely depart at the end of the semester. He has most of those gaps covered by incoming freshmen (Eddie Ekiyor and Tyrique Jones) and transfer (RaShed Gaston).

1. Xavier's front court -- Who's got next? Mack lost seven years of experience with the simultaneous departures of James Farr and Jalen Reynolds. Although he has Sean O'Mara (6'10", 247 pounds), Tim Stainbrook (6'6", 200 pounds) and Kaiser Gates (6'8", 217 pounds) returning, he brought in Ekiyor and Jones with NLIs during the fall as insurance. When Jalen Reynolds made his departure official, Mack also signed Gaston, a fifth year senior out of Norfolk State in the MEAC. The front court starters in November will most likely be O'Mara at center with Gaston and Gates at the #3/#4 (and Bluiett playing up to the #3 at times). As the season goes on expect Ekiyor and Jones to find regular minutes in the rotation as well.

2. Is Edmond Sumner ready to take the next step? Despite a concussion that sidelined him for nearly two weeks at the beginning of conference play last season, Xavier point guard put together the kind of season that earned him five Freshman of the Week nods and one of three unanimous selections to the Big East Conference All-Freshman Team. His end-to-end speed and leaping ability kept opposing defenses off balance and gave the Musketeer offense an edge in transition. According to Sports Illistrated's Luke Winn, Sumner connected on 49.6% of layups and dunks while drawing 5.8 fouls per 40 minutes (with a 73% conversion rate at the line). Already beginning to fill out his 6'6" frame, Sumner's off season To Do List includes improving his jump shot (per Winn, Sumner was identified by multiple pro scouts as the guard with the highest ceiling, but his form on jumpers needed lots of work) where he completed only 29.7% of his two point attempts away from the basket and three point attempts where he converted 30.3% of his attempts. Better shot selection and higher completion rates next season will earn All-Conference First Team honors. Look for a second graduate transfer Malcolm Bernard, a 6'6" guard out of Florida A&M to push Sumner in fall practice.

3. Can Xavier get past the Sweet Sixteen? Since dropping Division 1 football and making basketball the center piece of their athletic programs, Xavier has pursued excellence with a commitment that borders on obsession. Over the past 33 seasons the Musketeers have earned 25 NCAA bids across four different conferences under six different head coaches. In the 44 previous seasons the Muskies earned a single NCAA bid (1961) on a run that ended in the first round. Consistency has been achieved, but Xavier continues to pursue excellence as their ceiling, the Regional Final (Elite Eight), has been reached only once, under coach Sean Miller (now at Arizona). Now that Villanova has won a National Championship, Xavier's recent performance is coming under the microscope. Mack's ceiling has been the Sweet Sixteen, reached three times in six tournament runs as coach at Xavier. As a member of the Big East, Mack has reached a single Sweet Sixteen (2015), and exited the 2016 tournament as a #2 seed, 66-63, on a last second corner three by #7 seed Wisconsin's Bronson Koenig. Xavier will get back to the NCAA tournament, though they may not draw another #2 seed. Sumner, Gates and Bluiett will all show improvement while Myles Davis will continue to provide the experience that anchors the back court. If the front court comes together expect a seed from #2 to #4 which carries a good chance to be among the last 16 teams in the tournament. Match-ups matter here, a good draw would put them back in the hunt.


The Big East Conference
The conference had its most successful season in close to a decade. The conference sent five members (50%) to the NCAAs, while Creighton advanced three rounds into the NIT field before being eliminated by BYU. The conference drew two #2 seeds in the NCAA and Villanova won the National Championship last April. The conference heard the names of two players called in the first round and of the NBA draft June 23, followed by two others who were drafted in the second round. Providence guard Kris Dunn was a lottery pick (5th spot) by Minnesota while freshman Henry Ellenson was drafted in the 18th spot by Detroit. Sophomore Isiah Whitehead (42nd by Utah, traded to the NY Nets) and junior Ben Bentil (51st, Boston) were taken in the second round.

1. Has the conference regained its high-major status? Some would debate the Big East's status, despite losing six programs, was always a high-major. The number of NCAA bids earned since the reformation (16) is more than the SEC (11) and the American Athletic Conference (10). The conference sent 50% of their members to the NCAA in their first (reformed) year (2014), 60% in 2015 and 50% in 2016. That is a slightly better percentage than the Big Ten (50%, 50% and 50%) and the Pac-12 (50%, 33%, 58%) over the same period. Pomeroy ranked the conference 5th, 3rd and 3rd in the seasons since the reformation; the RPI ranks were 4th, 2nd and 4th. Yet in the minds of too many pundits the conference took a major step back when the conference reformed before the 2013-14 season. Villanova, after repeatedly drawing high seeds, won the 2016 National Championship, which, hopefully, puts those whispers to bed. Recalling the Big East of the early 1980s however, it is clear the conference did not draw elite recognition until 1985, when the conference put St. John's, Georgetown and Villanova (all members of the reformed conference...) into the Final Four.

2. Can the conference improve on the four invitational tournament championships they earned last season? Marquette (Legends), Villanova (NIT Tip-Off) and Xavier (AdvoCare Invitational) win their respective invitational tournaments, the conference also had three other members reach their championship games. Those tournaments, most coming during the 2015 Thanksgiving Week, accounted for an attention grabbing 20-3 (0.870) record, which in turn shined a very favorable light on the conference's bid contenders for the post season. This season the prospects are good that Creighton (Paradise Jam), Villanova (Charleston Classic) and Xavier (Puerto Rico Tip-Off) will repeat against so-so fields.

Finding a sure number four is challenging. Seton Hall, slated for the AdvoCare Invitational, may be the best candidate. The Pirates open versus semi-home Florida, and should they win, draw a rematch with Gonzaga (who bounced them from the NCAA's last March) next. Both games should be a challenge, but Stanford, Miami or Iowa State awaiting the winner of the Hall's bracket, would be the last team. Any of them (especially Miami or Stanford) would be difficult opponents. Butler, DePaul and Marquette have interesting match-ups that could work in their favor. Butler, due to appear in the Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational will face Vanderbilt in the host semi-final, with the chance to meet Arizona if the Bulldogs advance to the championship game. Vanderbilt has a new coach and some significant roster changes, which suggest Marquette might be able to advance. But Arizona, the prohibitive favorite in the other semi-final, will be difficult. DePaul, set to compete in the (also) Continental Tire Las Vegas Classic faces Wyoming in the semi-final and either Missouri State or (most likely) Southern California. Beating Wyoming, also guided by a new coach, is probable, but USC? Not so much as Andy Enfield has a roster that should challenge in the Pac-12. Marquette will face Michigan in the semi-finals of the 2K Classic, and if they win would face either Pittsburgh or SMU, both of which have new head coaches and some roster turnover.

The other tournaments are problematic. Georgetown faces a loaded field in the Maui Invitational that includes UNC, Oregon and Wisconsin. St. John's will participate in the Battle 4 Atlantis whose field includes Baylor, Louisville and Michigan State (or and Wichita State also...). Providence is slated for the Emerald Coast Classic whose field includes Iowa, Virginia and Memphis (which hired Tubby Smith). The Friars will face Memphis first, with either Iowa or Virginia to follow.

3. Will the latest round of realignment, initiated this time by the Big 12, affect the Big East? Ugh, not again. Having left the five FBS members behind in 2013, the seven schools that reformed the Big East dedicated their attention and money to sports other than Bowl Division football. That, it would seem, settled the question that tore at the fabric of the conference for over 20 years. Just when one would have to believe the Big East is immune from the machinations of the 65 Power 5 conference members (plus Notre Dame) and the 64 members of the Group of Five (the other five FBS conferences and independents) ESPN's Andy Katz twitter set off a ripple of nostalgia with his tweet/blurb...

If UConn found a home for football, the Big East would seriously consider the Huskies for all other sports, according to a source with knowledge. The Big East would be a natural fit. So far the 10-team Big East only has all sports members, but doesn't offer Division I (FBS) football. UConn is in all sports in the AAC. If given the choice, the Huskies would want to be in the Big 12 in all sports. But the chances that offer ever comes is still too hard to predict now.
-- Andy Katz, July 20, 2016

The "a source with knowledge..." is of course unidentified leaving the reader with little to judge the value of the information (was the source a UConn insider? A Big East front office insider? One of the members schools? Scott Van Pelt?). Two weeks has cooled the nostalgia and slowly brought conference fans back to reality. UConn is not walking through that door. And even if the Huskies knocked (extremely unlikely) would the conference even answer? Consider that UConn would first have to leave the AAC, a process that would (per agreed upon procedures) take 27 months and a 10 million dollar exit fee (higher if exiting more quickly) to execute. UConn would have to (re)join the Big East before applying to the Big 12 for football only. NCAA regulations prohibit a school from applying to a conference for membership in a sport unless the school's "home conference" does not play that sport. Unwinding the sequence of actions that have to take place can be confusing, but two questions really put this to bed -- Does Connecticut honestly want to move only their football over to the Big 12? Does the Big 12 consider football only status preferable for UConn (or any other program they invite)? If the invitation is tendered it will be for all sports. And UConn will accept eagerly.

Scenarios that involve partial/split memberships are almost always for the benefit of the school who wants to maintain an unaffiliated status for their football program (ie Notre Dame, BYU and maybe Texas). Those arrangements do not promote stability for the conference that buys in. And for anyone connected to the Big East (conference employee, employee of a member school or even a fan) to entertain the notion of taking a school (much less UConn, nostalgia aside) with an FBS program into the conference suggests the entertainer learned nothing from the last three decades. Having put the FBS football issue aside, the only power 5 realignment variations that will impact the Big East would involve imploding conferences or the power 5 alignment leaving the NCAA and declining participation in the NCAA basketball tournament.

2011-12 Preview -- Fourth Quartile

A Casting Call...
The four teams that make up the Big East's bottom quartile share a common feature -- they have talent, just not enough of it. DePaul, Providence and Rutgers have each replaced their head coach and staff within the last 18 months. South Florida will most likely follow suit next spring. The Demons, Friars and Knights were in various stages of decomposition when their Athletic Directors forced a change of direction. DePaul and Rutgers are in Year Two of their rebuilding process, while Ed Cooley is just getting started. The challenges have to be daunting.

	2010-11 Season
	Overall			Big East			BET	Post
Team	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	Seed	Seasn?
DePaul	7	24	0.226	1	17	0.056	16	BET
Providence	15	17	0.468	4	14	0.222	14	BET
Rutgers	15	17	0.468	5	13	0.278	13	BET
South Florida	10	23	0.303	3	15	0.167	15	BET

Together these teams matched Pittsburgh's conference win total. Lacking 11 bid-worthy teams this season, expect these four to do better in the win column...by a combined two or three wins.

Team Thumbnail (in 300 words...more or less)
DePaul -- The Purnell Era, Year Two
Coach Oliver Purnell has a pair of solid stars in Cleveland Melvin and Brandon Young. Those two, both sophomores, will be the pillars around which he will rebuild the Blue Demon program. Cleveland (14.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg) who was named Conference Rookie of the Year last March, will anchor the front court, while Young (30.4 mpg, 12.6 ppg, 3.7 apg), who made the All-Rookie First Team along with Cleveland, will man the point and anchor the back court. Returning guards/wings starting off guard Jeremiah Kelly, Edwind McGhee and Joe Belcaster will be joined by 5-11 JUCO Worrel Clahar and freshmen Charles McKinney (a 6-3 local from suburban Evanston who prepped at Quality Education Academy in North Carolina). Baltimore native Macari Brooks was a NCAA Clearing House casualty. Front court veterans include 2010-10 starting center Krys Faber and sophomore forward Moses Morgan. Junior Tony Freeland will red shirt this season after surgey to stabilize his right shoulder. Joining Freeland as a red shirt will be Montray Clemons, another Baltimore native who ruptured the patellar tendon in his left knee in late October. Entering freshmen Jamee Crockett and transfer Donnavan Kirk (when he is eligible after the Autumn quarter) will round out the forward rotation, with freshman Derrell Robertson pushing Fabers in the low post. In the wake of the roster shakeup (Clemons, Freeland and Macari), DePaul's new basektball blog, Under the El posted a a breakdown of Purnell's rotations for his last three Clemson teams to assess whether DePaul's suddenly shallow(er) rotation would torpedoe Purnell's timetable to implement his high-pressure offensive and defensive system. There are (still) enough bodies, but are they athletic and conditioned well enough to withstand an 18 game conference schedule?

The Blue Demons' 2010-11 offensive efficiency (points per possession scored) was low (about 0.95), but they turned in an especially porous defensive efficiency (opponents' points per possession) of 1.17 in conference play. Handing out the highest points per possession in conference play did not by itself condemn the Demons to their 1-17 record, but the resulting difference margin (offensive efficiency - defensive efficiency) was, at -0.214, nearly double that of the next nearest conference team. Purnell's charges will have to work on field goal defense (cut into their opponents' conversion rate) and turnovers (get them up, something Clahar was particularly adept at doing) this season. The thin rotation may be especially vulnerable at the end of the season when DePaul will host Providence and Seton Hall within a fortnight to close out the regular season. The Friars and Pirates (along with guests St. John's and South Florida near midseason) are the best candidates for wins. Will the Blue Demons have enough gas in the tank to take them? Progress in 2011-12 will be measured in a smaller efficiency margin (and one or two additional wins).

Providence -- Ed Cooley! Come on Down!!!
The Keno Davis Era ended on an especially flat 1-8 note. Providence Athletic Director Robert Callahan, with a much clearer idea of what he wanted as a head coach, turned to Rhode Island native Ed Cooley, a five year veteran head coach who resurrected the Fairfield program, and closed out this search three weeks earlier than his 2008 search (which brought Davis to Friartown in the first place). Without Marshon Brooks to supply 788 points this season, where will Cooley turn for the points? The best of the lot is returning guard Vincent Council, with guards Bryce Cotton and Gerard Coleman providing second and third scoring options. The roster lists 13 players, but of the 11 who checked into the Assumption College exhibition game, five shot a combined 0-3 with none of those five, despite averaging over seven minutes apiece, attempting more than a single field goal. The shallow rotation was even shallower with the news that junior forward Kadeem Batts was a DNP versus Assumption -- coach's decision (indefinite suspension it turns out, that could run into the regular season) -- and freshman guard Kiwi Gardner was ruled academically ineligible by the NCAA (Providence will appeal). True Coach Cooley decided to go with a revamped front court, starting two freshmen, red shirt Brice Kofane (6-8, 205 lbs) and LaDontae Henton (6-6, 220 lbs, Lansing, MI) and bringing junior Bilal Dixon in off the bench (Dixon scored 13 points in 22 minutes, on a very efficient 71.4% eFG% and 1.32 PPWS). But the overall offensive efficiency, an anemic 0.97 points per possession (PPP), was masked by the 13 point winning margin (64-51). The other disquieting note was rebounding, Coach Cooley's squad grabbed a meager 25% of their own misses, while Assumption was able to take a second chance shot on 35% of their misses. Those numbers will kill Providence in conference play.

The South Padre Island Invitational field will pit both Iowa State and Northern Iowa against the Friars could be cause for Thanksgiving (and optimism) should Providence sweep those two on a neutral court. Most of Providence's regional opponents (Holy Cross, Rhode Island and Boston College) will come to the Dunkin Donuts Center this season, an advantage for the home team to be sure. Drawing South Florida as a mirror is small consolation for the Syracuse/Georgetown combination (will the Hoyas hold up on the road?). Hosting Rutger and Seton Hall may offer the best possibilities for additional wins if the Friars' lack of depth is not exposed by early February.

Rutgers -- Meet the All New Scarlet Knights
Second year coach Mike Rice recruited a whopping seven man class, which means the 2011-12 season should begin a total makeover process for the Scalet Knight program. The changes begin appropriately enough at the #1, with newcomers Myles Mack, a 5-9 All-State player out of St. Anthony's will take the point, probably backed by senior Tyree Graham, a JUCO who took a red shirt last season. Sophomore Austin Carroll will be pushed at the off guard by newcomer combo guards Eli Carter, a 6-2 prep who committed to St. Bonaventure before taking a fifth year at Brewster Academy in New Hampshire, and Jerome Seagears (6-3, 175 lbs), who prepped in Maryland. The front court may have to wait a while for the "names" to make an impact. Kadeem Jack enrolled last January and took a red shirt to practice with the team. Jack was injured just before fall practice and after surgery to his right foot will require 3-4 months of rehabilitation. Kansas State transfer Wally Judge (6-9, 245 lbs) will sit this season per NCAA transfer rules. In the meantime, returning sophomore Gilvydas Biruta, an All-Conference Rookie Teamer from 2011 will make due with junior Austin Johnson and a pair of freshmen, 6-8 Derrick Randall and 6-9 Greg Lewis. Look for freshman Malick Kone, an athletic 6-5 guard/forward to join a wing rotation that includes junior All-Conference prospect (and most likely starter) Dane Miller and sophomore Mike Poole. Rice has bodies this season, Carter or Seagears can move over to the point should Mack falter; Lewis and Randall will pick up minutes they would not get if Jack and Judge were available. The learning curve may prove to be the squad's greatest challenge. The Scarlet Knights' 2011 conference defense was porous, allowing 1.08 points per possession. Shot defense (a generous 49.7% eFG%), rebounding (allowed opponents a 35.5% rate on their missed field goals) and fouling (51.1% FTA/FGA) the three areas that need improvement.

The Cancun Challenge slate facing Rutgers is hardly overpowering. Illinois State is projected to finish in the MVC's lower division, while Illinois and Richmond are a year away from their peaks. Losing to any of the three (or two of the three) would suggest the Scarlet Knights will be on track to settle into the bottom of the conference. Florida will be the Scarlet Knights' marquee out of conference matchup. Beating the Gators would be great, but keeping it close is more realistic. Rutgers drew Seton Hall, Notre Dame and West Virginia as mirror opponents; a 3-3 record would be great, a sign the Knights may well finish out of the bottom quartile, but 2-4 or 1-5 might be more realistic. 0-6 would be a strong suggestion Rice's team is more than a year away. Among the conference visitors this season, DePaul, Villanova and St. John's offer the best opportunities for a win. Among the road conference opponents, South Florida and Providence are possible wins. To get out of the bottom quartile, Rutgers would need at least 5-6 wins. One or two from the mirrors, combined with two or three from the home slate would still require the Knights to take a game or two on the road...a very narrow margin of error.

South Florida -- the Perpetual Rebuilding Project
Counting the additions to the 2011-12 roster, Coach Stan Heath has coached 38 players in his five years in Tampa. Of the 38 players (a thirty-ninth, Brock Martino is a transfer from South Alabama who will sit this season), 19 played a single season for Heath, the average "stay" being 1.7 seasons. This season's squad will average 2.0 seasons with the coach, but even chalking the eight who left or finished after Heath's first season (three graduated or exhausted their eligibility and five transferred) to "housekeeping", that still leaves 30 players in four seasons, or just under eight new players each season, way too much turnover to establish a stable program. Of the 13 players on this season's roster, six were JUCO (three) or transfers (three). The Bulls' front court will feature two returning starters from last season, August Gilchrist (28.4 MPG, 14.4 PPG, 6.0 RPG) and Ron Anderson (22.5 MPG, 7.0 PPG, 6.4 RPG), both transfers. Gilchrist who sat a year at (and never suited up for) Maryland, will team with Anderson who transferred in from Kansas State after one season. This is the last season for both. Junior Toarlyn Fitzpatrick (14.2 MPG, 4.3 PPG, 4.1 RPG) will rejoin the rotation. Newcomers include Arizona State transfer Victor Rudd and freshman center Jordan Omogbehin. Senior (two year walkon) Alberto Damour will see a few minutes. A rotation of returners, Jawanza Poland (27.0 MPG, 9.1 PPG, 1.06 SPG), Shaun Noriega (16.5 MPG, 6.4 PPG) and Hugh Robertson (30.1 MPG, 8.3 PPG, 1.8 APG) will man the wings with help from newcomer Victor Rudd from Arizona State. Look for JUCO Blake Nash (6-0, 185 lbs) to get first crack at the point, with bench player LaVonte Dority and true freshman Anthony Collins (6-1, 175 lbs) to back him up. Heath has to solve problems on both sides of the ball. While the defense yielded a horrible 1.09 points per possession, the offense countered with a very anemic 0.97 points per possession of it's own. Heath needs points on offense, as their 46.0% eFG% conversion rate in conference play would suggest. The Bulls must also staunch a 22.5% turnover rate in conference play was the highest in the conference. A good point guard should help, so if Nash struggles, the Bulls may well flounder.

An out of conference slate that includes a VCU rematch (in Richmond, VA) and three road games, two with power conference opponents (Kansas and Auburn) and non-BCS Southern Mississippi of CUSA, is not overwhelming, but should offer the Bulls faithful a chance to see their team compete against solid competition. VCU and Kansas should contend for conference honors (and may well return to the NCAAs), while Auburn and Southern Mississippi will finish in lower halves of their respective conferences. Beating the Jayhawks or Rams would force a re-evaluation, but losing to the Tigers or Golden Eagles could foretell a pattern that should play out in the conference season. The Bulls drew Pittsburgh, Providence and Villanova as conference mirrors which, Pitt aside, could have raised interesting prospects for Heath's program. 0-6 would be a disaster, but 2-4 might be the ceiling, with the Bulls dropping two to the Panthers, and either splitting with the other two or sweeping one of Villanova or Providence. 1-5 is a real possibility, especially if South Florida cannot stop the bleeding on either side of the ball. Among the conference teams they host, the best opportunities for wins would include Rutgres, Seton Hall and St. John's, all of whom they see before the third week in January. Picking through the road slate, DePaul offers the best opportunity for a win, which suggests a ceiling of maybe five conference wins. The Bulls could collect fewer.

Most Likely to...(and why):
Move up a Quartile -- Rutgers. Coach Rice's recruiting has been energetic, but few would know it given the job (and headlines) done by St. John's Steve Lavin. If the veterans produce and the freshmen get with the program (and do not develop a case of freshman fatigue), look for the Scarlet Knights to surprise a few teams and close out with a florish. The greatest uncertainty continues to be depth and whether the players they have can be competitive in the Big East Conference.

To Draw #16 Seed... -- South Florida It is tough to win when the roster turns overs as much as the Bulls' has the past few seasons. Coach Heath's tendency to favor JUCOs and transfers (too often problem children...) over freshmen trades quick wins for a stable roster that offered freshmen players the opportunity to develop.

Signs of the Off season, 2011 -- Trouble in the Big East Conference?

Ahhhh, What Just Happened (part 2)?
The Big East meetings in Ponte Verda Beach, Fla. got off to an interesting start Monday when Connecticut basketball Coach Jim Calhoun opined the Big East Conference would last another 4-5 years, but most likely not beyond. Suggesting he would be in retirement by then ("Apres moi, le deluge" perhaps?), the 68 year old coach (25 years at UConn) believes, according to CBS blogger Brett McMurphy, the split will be along basketball and football lines, with the eight basketball-only schools raiding the Atlantic-10 conference for several more teams to create a conference that would predominantly consist of Catholic universities. Coach Calhoun's analysis, fairly well discussed by conference fans and others over the past four-to-five years surprises only because it has been voiced publicly by one of the conference's coach patriarchs, quite contrary to an unacknowledged (Big East) policy not to speculate about the future composition of the conference membership. SportingNews' long-time sportswriter-come-blogger Mike DeCourcy registered a surprising dissent the next day. Surprising because DeCourcy has been a persistent and vocal critic of mega-conferences since the 16 member Western Athletic Conference imploded after the 1999 season. DeCourcy was an early-and-often critic when the Big East expanded to 16 members in 2005, so why the change in tune? For DeCourcy, money is the grease that keeps the Big East's wheel running smoothly. Perhaps he is right, or it seemed that way through Tuesday night, when the conference Athletic Directors adjourned to their scheduled Wednesday morning meeting, where Commissioner John Marinatto scheduled a discussion on TV contract negotiations, BCS matters, bowl payouts and (football?) scheduling.

Was It Something He Said?
The Wednesday morning meeting (along with the golf outing?) was abruptly cancelled amid a flurry of conflicting public statements, when West Virginia AD Oliver Luck, whose distaste for the Big East Commissioner has become increasingly public since his succeeded Ed Pasilong in June, 2010, led a faction consisting of Pittsburgh and Rutgers out of the Ponte Verda Beach Inn Wednesday morning. Brett McMurphy posted an announcement at 10:30 am, from a "conference spokesman", that characterized the three AD's departure as "unexpected" and suggested Luck departed to deal with a problem related to West Virginia's football offensive coordinator. Luck countered with an announcement (released through McMurphy) three hours later, that contradicted the original announcement. The "West Virginia spokesperson" indicated Luck left early to attend a Rifle Team fundraiser scheduled for Wednesday evening, and not (as suggested by the Big East spokesperson) to attend to Dana Holgorsen's indiscretion. The WVU spokesperson went on to say the departure was not "unexpected", that Luck had never planned to attend the Wednesday morning meeting. I wonder what Texas Christian University Director of Intercollegiate Athletics Chris Del Conte thinks of the scheduling snafu. Perhaps, given his association with Pittsburgh Athletic Director Steve Pederson, he was given an early heads-up of the planned walk out.

Next?
The Wednesday morning agenda items, bowl payout update, the TV contract negotiations, state of the BCS and scheduling issues, have been pushed back to the conference's scheduled Football Media Days, August 1-2 in Newport, Rhode Island. With, according to Big East Commissioner John Marinatto, TV contract negotiations scheduled to expire after the 2013 season, the conference and ESPN have already initiated discussions. The move in turn has triggered a division in the schools, some of whom want to take the conference into the open market in an effort to use market forces to drive up the contract payout.

Early Season Invitational Tournaments -- 2011-12

Where the Big East Will Play Their Exempt Games
A post over at John Templon's new blog venture, Big Apple Buckets put me on to Blogging the Bracket's Early Season Invitational page. Chris Dobbertean has pulled together information about the fields for 20 tournaments, along with seven campus-only round robin multi-team events (MTEs) that appear to be in the process of forming fields that qualify for exempt tournament status.

	Tournament	Gms	Dates
Cincinnati	Round Robin Event?	4	TBD
Connecticut	Battle 4 Atlantis	3	Nov. 23-27
DePaul	Old Spice Classic	3	Nov. 24, 25 & 27
Georgetown	Maui Invitational	4	Nov. 21-23 (& campus)
Louisville	Round Robin Event?	4	TBD
Marquette	Paradise Jam	4	Nov. 18-21
Notre Dame	CBE Classic	4	Nov. 21-22 (& campus)
Pittsburgh	TBD	-	NA
Providence	South Padre Invitational	4	Nov. 25-26 (& campus)
Rutgers	Cancun Challenge	4	Nov. 14-19 (campus); Nov. 22-23
Seton Hall	Charleston Classic	3	Nov. 17, 18, 20
South Florida	Hall of Fame Tip-Off	4	Nov. 12, 14, 19-20
St. John's	Coaches vs. Cancer Classic	4	2 pod; Nov. 17, 18
Syracuse	NIT Tip-Off	4	Nov. 23, 25 (& campus)
Villanova	76 Classic	3	Nov. 24, 25 & 27
West Virginia	Las Vegas Classic	3	Christmas time?

Notes & Observations1. The two tournaments noted with question marks are unconfirmed, but seem to have varying degrees of certainty per Dobbertean's post of 4/27/11. Cincinnati appears to have a two year commitment to an event named "Global Sports Shootout". This season the games will center on the Bearcats' homecourt at Fifth-Third. Louisville, per Dobbertean, is close to forming/hosting an MTE of it's own out of the KFC Center in Louisville, which makes sense as the arena is brand new and Louisville scheduled quite a few events there last season. Pittsburgh appears to be the only Big East team not committed to an invitational tournament at this time.
2. The Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament will premier this season. Set on Paradise Island, Bahamas, the tournament will feature a possible match-up of Connecticut and Massachusetts. Those two regional rivals have not played since December of 2005. The series, which spanned 100 years and 108 games, has been on "hiatus" for the past five years.
3. The Las Vegas Classic is also new this season, and, like the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii, will be played during the Christmas season, rather than over Thanksgiving. That tournament will also feature a campus-hosted preliminary round that will precede the final two rounds in Las Vegas. Three hosting teams (Baylor, Missouri State and West Virginia) are the only teams committed so far. The sponsors need to find five more teams to fill out the field.
4. Syracuse, a team (like Pittsburgh) with a reputation for staying close to home in the season's first two months, will, according to Dobbertean (via John Rothstein), participate in the NIT Tip-Off. The preliminary round(s) are hosted at a campus site (perfect for the Carrier Dome), with the semi-finals and finals at Madison Square Garden, and that fits Syracuse's preferences to a tee.
5. Villanova will participate in the 76 Classic in Anaheim, California over the Thanksgiving Weekend. The field...

Team	Conf		Team	Conf
Boston College	ACC		New Mexico	MWC
Oklahoma	Big 12		UC Riverside	Big West
Saint Louis	A-10		Santa Clara	WCC
Washington St.	PAC-10

Five teams in the field won 20 or more games in 2010, while Oklahoma will have a new coach. Featured coaches in the field include Saint Louis' Rick Majerus and Villanova's Jay Wright, both of whom have been to the Final Four.
6. Coming into May, the fields for only nine of the 20 tournaments listed at Blogging the Bracket are filled. Several of the campus + travel tournaments have yet to even fill out their "host" brackets, while several have identified half or less of their projected field. Commitments for these tournaments used to be given years in advance, and it was not uncommon for the field in the coming year to be announced at the end of the tournament. This off season there seem to be more than the usual number of open/available spots in a few of the more prestigious -- the Charleston Classic, the CvC Classic and the CBE for example -- which makes me wonder if the exempt tournament niche has reached the saturation point. The first wave of tournaments after exempt tournaments no longer needed to apply for waivers from the NCAA forced a number of the more exotic locations (Top of the World Shootout) out of the field. Will there be a similar shakeout in the next season or two?

Mia Culpa, Mia Maxima Culpa, 2010

Due Diligence...
The timing may seem strange, folks usually review their predictions right after the season. As I prepare to rollout my alphabetically correct Big East team previews, I pause to look at mine to remind myself about what I don't know. And to allow the reader to guage the size of the grain of salt with which to take my team projections for 2011...

	2009-10 Actual					Proj.
Team	W	L	Pct	Seed	Qtl	Qtl
Cincinnati	7	11	0.389	11	3	2
Connecticut	7	11	0.389	12	3	1
DePaul	1	17	0.056	16	4	4
Georgetown	10	8	0.556	8	2	2
Louisville	11	7	0.611	6	2	1
Marquette	11	7	0.611	5	2	3
Notre Dame	10	8	0.556	7	2	3
Pittsburgh	13	5	0.722	2	1	2
Providence	4	14	0.222	15	4	4
Rutgers	5	13	0.278	14	4	4
Seton Hall	9	9	0.500	10	3	3
St. John's	6	12	0.666	13	4	3
South Florida	9	9	0.500	9	3	4
Syracuse	15	3	0.833	1	1	2
Villanova	13	5	0.722	4	1	1
West Virginia	13	5	0.722	2	1	1

Let Your Light So Shine...
Consistent with the "truism" I posted about before the 2009 season, very successful and very unsuccessful programs are pretty easy to recognize and rank relative to the others. Recognizing the teams that would struggle was easier than the ones that would not in 2010 apparently, as I was 3 for 4 on Fourth Quartile teams. The miss was South Florida, which managed a rush at the end of the season to go 7-4 through the last 2/3s of it's conference schedule and finish with a 9-9 record. That run included a 3 game winning streak to close out the regular season. That run garnered the Bulls an NIT bid. My First Quartile picks on the other hand, were a bit...less successful. I placed West Virginia and Villanova correctly, but misjudged both Louisville (by a little) and Connecticut (by a lot). Maybe I underestimated the impact of various distractions that beset both programs going into the 2010 season. While most of my (many) misses were by a quartile (high or low), UConn was a two quartile whiff.

The middle two quartiles were brutal, I correctly placed only two of the eight teams that were seeded #5 through #12 in the Big East Tournament. In all but UConn I was off (high or low) by a single quartile. Ugh...

Misses Mostly...
In the Second and Third Quartiles, I underestimated (Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Marquette and Notre Dame) more than overestimated (Cincinnati and St. John's). I looked for Lance Stephenson to have a greater impact than he eventually had. Another example of overvaluing freshman contributions, I guess. And I overvalued the Johnnies' junior class (or was it the staff?). Speculation over the past two or so off seasons has been whether the program's inability to make progress was due to the players or the coaching staff. With the coaching changeover in the off season, 2011's results should settle that argument. I believe it was the staff, but we will see. All I can say about Marquette is that Buzz Williams is a keeper, and the same goes for Pitt's Jamie Dixon. Hopefully both coaches will see their schools as destinations rather than stepping stones. If Coach Dixon "breaks through" to the Final Four the Pitt administration will have to fight off another army of fat-walleted suitors. Hype about transfers and freshmen tend not to be true most times. 2010 was unusual in that there were two, Wes Johnson at Syracuse, and Jordan Crawford at Xavier, who really did elevate their respective programs. In both cases there was a very solid nucleus in place, and each player was became the difference between a good season and a great season.

What's Next
I will post team previews at three to four day intervals (more or less). I have been working on a few other topics and ideas over the past two months, so there should be a other, intervening posts as well.

Off Season Roundtable #2 at the east coast bias

If you have not gotten over to the east coast bias Blog to check out Pico Dulce's second Roundtable of the 2010 off season, you should. Pico received responses from 11 bloggers from around the conference (not an even distribution though, with two and three bloggers respectively, DePaul and Villanova were heavily represented) to questions about the state of the blogger's team, incoming players, team recruiting and expectations for the conference in the coming year. The team news posts answered a number of questions I had about DePaul and Seton Hall -- I only wish these roundtables could draw responses from blogs from every team in the conference. Pico divided his survey into four separate posts:
Part 1 -- covered the state of the blogger's team (players coming and going).
Part 2 -- a preview of incoming players.
Part 3 -- recruiting news, targets, expectations.
Part 4 -- the Big East, better or worse next season?

Recruits, Incoming & Prospective
Reviewing the lists incoming players for the other teams (especially St. John's, Pittsburgh and Connecticut), I was surprised to see little overlap on the recruiting targets. Pitt-bound pg Isaiah Epps excepted, I did not see a "Villanova target" listed as going to another conference school. Epps by the way is the latest in a line of New Jersey/metro New York City/Philly guards off to play for the Panthers. Coach Dixon has done a terrific job drawing these guys to Pittsburgh. I believe Jayvaughn Pinkston was on St. John's radar for a while, but Bell, born in Plainfield, NJ, but raised for the most part in Florida, verballed early to the Wildcats, which probably kept him off of Big East lists. The massive coaching make-over in this recruiting seedbed may make getting metro NYC and New Jersey players more difficult in the coming years. Coaches Lavin, Rice and Willard (listed in an alphabetically neutral order...) will find job recruiting out of their backyards easier if they can build winning programs at St. John's, Rutgers and Seton Hall respectively.

The State of Recruiting
Pico also included a number of links to AAU sponsored travel team tournaments in Las Vegas (the summer recruiting circuit hits a high point in the late July evaluation period with a series of showcase-type tournaments in Las Vegas). Of special interest, Pico also included a link to ESPN's Dana O'Neil's own Roundtable of 20 (anonymous) college head coaches who candidly discussed the state of recruiting and it's impact on the college game. The pressure seems to be building for the NCAA to "do something", and O'Neil highlights several ideas straight from the coaches who travel in some very gray areas. Also worth your time if you follow recruiting and some of the more questionable practices. O'Neil's article probably triggered as large a response over at ecb than the conference-oriented post itself.

While a few of the suggestions were no doubt self-serving (after all, most of the NCAA's compliance rules govern the behavior of the coach and his/her staff), the general tenor makes sense. If the approach suggested by one coach to "throw it all out..." and start over is impractical, stepping away to survey the current recruiting landscape in which college, and the recruiting process that governs access to D1 programs, is one phase in the larger process that identifies and develops talent for the NBA and a host of international teams. Limiting/governing coaching contact with recruits through evaluation windows and counting phone calls (and text messages!) has been the historical approach; maybe it is time to limit coaching contacts with street agents and shoe company marketeers.

Pico's Part 3 post coincided with the NCAA announcement about new rules governing how coaches can associate with folks like the Pump brothers. The Pump brothers run AAU travel teams, sponsor summer tournaments & camps, advise college prospects, run a search/advising firm for coaching jobs...and a charitable foundation which attracts contributions from coaches (and colleges). The NCAA, as Eamon Brennan from the College Basketball Nation blog reported last week, has now prohibited coaches and colleges from contributing to the Pump Foundation. Coaches will not be allowed to use the Pump's search "services" either. Since the Pumps advise college-bound basketball players, this is a conflict of interest. It has been a bad off season for the brothers, as they were also implicated in Kansas ticket scandal back in May. And the National Association of Basketball Coaches (NABC) has also severed ties to the Pump Foundation and advised their members to do the same.

The Big East, Better or Worse?
The question as phrased begs the response "better (or worse) than what?". External comparisons -- to the ACC, SEC Big Ten, etc. -- suggest any step back after the 2009 season was very small. Quantitative metrics (using either RPI, KenPom, etc.) have consistently ranked the conference in the top 5, and in the top 2-3 after the conference crashed in 2007. Given the high percentage of returning players and winning programs (I will probably post the returning minutes vs Pythagorean Winning Percentage chart within the next two weeks), the 2011 edition of conference should be better than the 2010 edition.

Many Thanks to Pico for organizing these roundtables, keeping us all on task, compiling and publishing the responses.

Big East Bloggers Off Season Roundtable Over at ECB

Pico Dulce over at the East Coast Bias Blog has put together an early off season blogger roundtable. Pico shot me some (about five actually) questions and compiled my responses, along with those from 12 other bloggers (10 of the conference's 16 teams were represented) -- our friends from the old I Bleed Blue and White Blog, re-incarnated over at the Burnt Orange Nation as The Nova Blog also participated. Pico has published his compilation of the first two questions, "What was your team’s overall record and Big East record? Did they
surprise...?" and "Good or bad, who was the most surprising team...?". The responses represent a good capsule on "state of the conference" at this point in the off season.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Big East Day 3

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY - For the quarterfinal game of the day/night I was certain to report on Georgetown-Syracuse. A number eight taking out the top seeded team, in conversation this week about a possible number one seed in the NCAAs. The Notre Dame - Pitt sealed it . Especially from a tempo free analysis angle.

Quarterfinal scores:

Team	Score		Team	Score
Georgetown	91		Syracuse	84
Marquette	80		Villanova	76
Notre Dame	50		Pitt	45
West Virginia	54		Cincinnati	51

In a 50 possession game, the four factors:

			FTM
	ORtg	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Notre Dame	102	62	24	20	25
Pitt	90	40	21	38	22

Perception. This is why tempo free studies are so great. At the half ND leads 32-29. The assumption from yours truly, and others, is the defense is dictating. Wrong, wrong, wrong. Case in point:

	Off.
	Eff.	eFG%
Notre Dame	139	74
Pitt	116	50

Those numbers are not reflective of good solid defense. The score was low due to an extremely pedestrian 25 possession pace. The second half both defenses stepped up. Notre Dame had an offensive efficiency of 69 while Pitt checked in at 64. Even coach Mike Brey noted his club sealed the win by getting crucial stops in the stretch.

Luke Harangody gave a good 12 point effort in 22 minutes. Tory Jackson also had 12 points and came up big in the stretch making several key shots and plays. Brad Wanamaker scored 16 to lead all scorers and was a defensive task off the dribble for the Irish all night.

The slower paced offense has been a charm for ND. Mike Brey instituted it after Harangody’s injury in February and has kept it in tact. It is not a Princeton offense per se but it milks the clock and uses passing and good player movement. During the Big East I am keeping Synergy results. Remember Synergy is FG Pct + (Assists/FGM). For this game the numbers reflect the ball distribution, beauty and execution of the ND offense.

	Synergy
Notre Dame	1.307
Pitt	.915

The ND Synergy numbers on this night were superlative.

Notre Dame Cheerleaders

A Georgetown-Syracuse note. The offensive numbers were impressive. Georgetown had a 125 OE while Syracuse checked in at 114. The deciding factor was turnovers. Hoyas cared for the ball with a 16% rate while Syracuse was too high at 23%.

Georgetown missed a number of free throws in the stretch but still had a significant 58-15 edge in free throw rate. A look at three point attempts shows why. The Orange took 39% of their attempts beyond the arc. Georgetown took only 20%. In late game Syracuse was in a fouling mode which inflates the FT rate. But the rate takes in free throws made and most of Georgetown’s nine misses were in the stretch. The Hoyas simply did a better job attacking the basket.

A final Villanova note. greyCat will undoubtedly elaborate in detail but here are a few press row thoughts…A major factor in this one was Marquette’s three point shooting. They actually shot better from three than two. Marquette was 11 of 18 (61%) from three and 14 of 34 (41%) from two. Darius Johnson-Odom with 24 points did a great deal of damage to Nova beyond the arc (5 of 7). Corey Stokes came off the bench to supply a team high 22 points. Jay Wright’s club had difficulty matching up with Lazar Hayward (20 points). Hayward hit a couple three pointers but mostly operated inside where ‘Nova did not have a big man to consistently step up and defend him. Several times I have seen good things from Mouphtaou Yarou. Today he had an uneventful 15 minute outing with a 4 point 4 board performance. This was a day Wright could have used more from the 6-9 freshman. Antonio Pena had a creditable 14 point 6 board outing but was the lone inside threat for the Wildcats.

“This Villanova team is one of the best we played in my two years at Marquette. They are hard to guard and have five guys out there who can pass, penetrate and shoot.” - Marquette coach Buzz Williams

“Marquette is a team that uses their possessions well…the great thing about this (Big East) tournament is the games are great. We are all familiar with each other so it is harder to win.” - Jay Wright

Coach Wright fields questions after the game

Big East Differentials -- Two Weeks Out

The Composite With 2 Weeks Left...
I have continued to scrape Ken Pomeroy's web site on a regular basis (many thanks to KP for the raw data on D1 ball...his renewed blog posts are a terrific addition to the analysis this season) for his possession-based, game-by-game, results. I thought, with about 74% of the conference schedule in the books, I would revisit the conference-only games and take another look at the state of the Big East at this point...

	Record			Points Per Poss.
	W	L	Pct.	Off.	Def.	Diff
West Virginia	9	4	0.692	1.14	1.00	0.14
Syracuse	12	2	0.857	1.08	0.97	0.11
Villanova	11	2	0.846	1.16	1.05	0.11
Marquette	7	6	0.538	1.10	1.02	0.08
Louisville	8	5	0.615	1.12	1.06	0.06
Georgetown	8	6	0.571	1.09	1.03	0.06
Pittsburgh	9	4	0.692	1.06	1.02	0.04
Notre Dame	6	8	0.429	1.13	1.13	0.00
Connecticut	5	8	0.385	0.99	1.00	-0.01
Cincinnati	6	7	0.462	1.00	1.04	-0.04
Seton Hall	6	7	0.462	1.05	1.09	-0.04
South Florida	6	7	0.462	1.03	1.08	-0.05
St. John's	4	9	0.308	0.95	1.02	-0.07
Providence	4	10	0.286	1.06	1.14	-0.08
Rutgers	4	9	0.308	0.98	1.12	-0.14
DePaul	1	12	0.077	0.93	1.10	-0.17
Averages				1.05	1.05	0.00
Std Dev.				0.07	0.05	0.09

The six tiers that were obvious in the earlier part of the conference season have largely rounded out into a curve as teams, both high and low in the standings, are beating each other up. The St. John's at South Florida game earlier this afternoon should have (according to Ken Pomeroy's log5 calculation) been a six point loss for the Johnnies, not the 16 point win that will put them one loss out of a four-way tie for 9th place. The separation between teams #1 through #7 are well separated from teams #8 through #16. Notre Dame, despite the 0.00 differential, is actually slightly to the negative (hardly surprising anyone who has followed the Irish for the past four seasons), about -0.003. Interesting because that indicates that teams with positive differentials (offense scores more points per possession than the defense yields) -- teams #1 through #7 -- have records >0.500, while teams that have negative differentials (defense gives up more points per possession than the offense scores) have records < 0.500. It is fairly common for a conference to have a team (or two) that has a positive differential and a winning percentage < 0.500, or a team with a negative differential and a winning percentage &ft; 0.500.West Virginia and Marquette continue to be the outliers of the upper division, as both have fewer wins than their differentials suggest their play should have earned them. According to Pythagoras, both are short two wins apiece. The Mountaineers' game against Seton Hall will probably shave their differential a bit. Syracuse along with Villanova have spent February jockeying for the spot below the Mountaineers. The Wildcats are into the more difficult stretch of their schedule, and have had difficulty getting ahead of the Orange. DePaul and Rutgers have engaged in a similar, spirited competition, albeit at the other end of the conference standing. Providence has only recently fallen into position #14, the end result of a stretch in their (February) conference schedule that includes Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova and West Virginia.

According to Pythagoras...
Using the differentials to project a final record is hardly reliable, but for a number of teams, seem interesting. According to the projection for example Georgetown and Marquette will close out their conference slates without dropping another game. For the Hoyas that means a 4-0 run, while the Golden Eagles would finish with a 5-0 run (a 9-1 run if you include the five previous games) -- that should be warrant an invitation to the NCAA. Connecticut and Notre Dame would finish with 3-1 runs (actually for UConn, given their win on Saturday, a 2-1 finish), while Louisville would finish with a 4-1 run (3-1 counting the DePaul win Saturday afternoon). For the Cardinals that may be a very tall order as they still have Connecticut, Syracuse, Marquette and Georgetown. That has to be one of the toughest finishing slates (though Villanova's Pittsburgh, Syracuse and West Virginia run might be a close second).

The Big East -- Comparing BCS Records

Oh Providence...
A quiet story through the first week+ of the season was the cumulative conference records, especially among the power (BCS) conferences. Preseason stories for example, heralded the return to glory of the SEC, led of course by the resurgence of the Kentucky program even as those writers anticipated a less dominant Big East Conference. The won-loss records compiled by the BCS conferences suggest the Big East may not be ready to go gently into that good night. 2009's most dominant conference opened the 2010 season with a 40 game winning streak that exceeded the next lengthiest conference (the Big 12) by 11. Which conference was the "last to lose"? In truth it came down to the Big East and Big 12 again. And who went last was not clear, as both Providence and Kansas State (the two who lost "first" in their respective conferences) started their ill-fated games at 8:00 EST (Providence-Alabama, Kansas State-Mississippi). I suspect, given the time lag in the game schedule at the Puerto Rico Tip Off Classic, that the Big 12 lasted about 20-25 minutes longer than the Big East counterpart. The summary through Friday evening per Ken Pomeroy's Rating Site...

	Record				Adjusted				Eff.
Conference	W	L	Pct	Pomeroy	Off.	Def.	Pace	SOS	Diff
Big 12	30	2	0.938	0.8948	116.2	87.7	70.9	0.4753	28.5
SEC	29	6	0.829	0.6720	107.5	98.0	68.2	0.4452	9.5
Big East	41	2	0.953	0.6839	110.3	96.8	70.8	0.4393	13.4
ACC	30	3	0.909	0.8751	104.9	69.4	67.7	0.4174	35.5
PAC 10	22	7	0.759	0.6515	111.0	99.5	70.8	0.394	11.5
Big Ten	23	8	0.742	0.5922	96.6	88.7	68.4	0.2925	7.9

The table is sorted by Strength of Schedule (SOS). The season is still very young (about 15% of the total games this season have been played), with the conference SOS and Pomeroy Rating still volatile. I looked at the totals for Thursday and found the Big Ten had the highest SOS. Note the Big East is ranked 3rd in adjusted offense (110.3) and 4th in adjusted defense (96.8). Efficiency Difference (Eff. Diff) derives from subtracting the ajusted defensive rating from the adjusted offensive rating. More teams accounts for more wins? Maybe, but consider Big East teams are averaging a won-loss record of 2.6-0.13 per team, while the Big 12 averages 2.5-0.16 and the ACC averages 2.5-0.23 per team through Friday night.

Last Thursday was brutal for the Big Ten, as the conference went 1-3, their teams taking losses to North Carolina (Ohio State), Mississippi (Indiana) and UNC-Wilmington (Penn State).

Signs of the 2009 Off Season #3 -- Big East Breakup

We Have All Been Here Before...
Basketball historians often credit Dave Gavitt, Providence basketball coach cum Athletic Director (followed by Big East Commissioner...and finally, Boston Celtics GM), with creating the original "basketball first" conference when, in 1979, he convinced the 7 charter members of the Big East (Boston College, Providence College, University of Connecticut, St. John's University, Syracuse University, Seton Hall University and Georgetown University) to forego their previous conference commitments and forge the Big East Conference. Those historians forget the marquee sport in the Atlantic Coast Conference was basketball, and the principal motivation for the secession of the ACC's seven charter members from the old (and prestigious) Southern Conference back in 1953 was post season play. The ACC was the original "basketball first" conference, and until formation of the BCS, the ACC appeared to weigh most decisions in light of the impact on men's basketball.

The formation of the BCS back in the 1990s has posed a constant challenge for the Big East. Historically about half of the conference members did not field a D1-A football team, and the original conference made no provisions to underwrite a BCS-level football conference. Expansion into BCS football in 1992 brought, over time, new members in three flavors -- "all sport" (Miami & Va. Tech), "all but football" (Notre Dame) and "football only" (Temple & Rutgers). The unique half-n-half makeup of the membership has, over time, disturbed third party observers and mainstream media sportswriters far more than the conference fans. Expanding the 8/9 member conference to accommodate an 8 member BCS-worthy football conference was, inevitably, lamented (NYT's George Vescy commentary is a good example) by many in college basketball circles, but accepted by others (see Kevin McNamara's 2005 background piece from the Providence Journal) as the price for keeping the basketball component together. And triggered speculation over further realignments that have grown into a cottage industry. The early mega-conference detractors (Mike DeCourcy among the earliest and loudest) authored commentaries that, at times, seemed to reflect equal parts anger and skepticism. Despite having early (negative) speculations about the conference refuted, DeCourcy has allowed skepticism over the conference's future bias his analysis of conference sports. Size and the hybred nature of the Big East has the capacity to drive some critics to distraction...not to mention fuzzy logic. Jay over at the GameJabs Blog takes the award for the most obnoxious suggestion however, as he declares the Catholic (basketball-only) contingent rename themselves the Metro Conference (capitalizing on the basketball reputation of the old Metro Conference), but, he adds, the schools should substitute the "t" in Metro with a crucifix. Wow, dude...

In the aftermath of "The Raid" in 2004, I have wondered once or twice, if the ACC's expansion was motivated as much by the desire to break up the Big East and thereby destroy their biggest basketball competitor as it was by their publicly stated desire to form a twelve team conference and reap the financial benefits of a championship football game (and a possible increase in BCS Bowl invitations). The subsequent reformation of the Big East (the addition of 5 schools from CUSA) has, ironically, only fueled speculation over the Big East's future.

The Latest Turn
If the speculation is annual, the catalyst changes. This off season Penn State's football coach, Joe Paterno, kicked off the latest round of speculation with a May 1 interview during which he restated his desire to have the Big Ten play a football championship game, a move that requires a twelfth team. Who can blame Paterno, whose Nittany Lions anchor the eastern "flank" of the Big Ten Conference, for looking eastward at the NYC media market as he named his preferred candidates (Syracuse or Pittsburgh or Rutgers)? The speculation has, despite repudiation by Big Ten Commissioner, lingers on, opening the door to a variety of realignment scenarios in recent weeks...a few involving, directly and indirectly, several Big East teams.

For the conference realignment, fantasy-league contingent, check out Matt Peloquin's massive "Conference Realignment Grid" in which he identifies (literally) at least 5 dozen different schools and realignment scenarios. Peloquin also produced a very long analysis of the conference's finances (mostly TV contracts and allocation of the post season appearance monies), with an (over?) on the recent successes of the conference's BCS members. Though he provides an interesting if flawed analysis of the state of the conference (one way to "save" the Big East is to expand it to 18 teams?! Really?), he does provide two important dates for the Big East fan to consider:
1. 2010 is the last year the football schools can exit without paying an exit fee. They also get to keep their accumulated shares of the basketball post season revenues.
2. 2013 is the year the ESPN's TV contract is up. Peloquin suggests the football schools alone could command a combined contract that would substantially increase the revenues to their programs.

Final (for now) Thoughts...
This was a very successful season for Big East basketball. The Garden sold out for 5 consecutive nights, with fans provided outstanding basketball games at least three times a week from January to early April (I'm counting the post season here). Despite post Raid concerns the football has prospered and the basketball has blossomed. The conference has sent 13 of it's 16 members to at least one post season basketball tournament. The ACC, expanded to accommodate their "football first" members, has yet to reap the supposed benefits of their expansion. Their 2nd place basketball team (and winner of their post season tournament) was blown off the court by the Big East's fourth place team. The all-Big East Regional Final produced one of the three best NCAA games in this decade. As long as the Big East members value community and quality of competition, "The Split Issue" is a non-issue.