Inside-Outside in the Big East, 2011 Into 2012

Pelton vs Pomeroy And Other Issues
Keven Pelton, currently an author for The Basketball Prospectus developed the stat as a shorthand for determining where (and how often...) a player tended to take his shots, either inside or outside of the three point line. The formula,

Inside = (FTA - 3FGA) / Minutes

weighs free throw attempts against three point attempts to determine the tendency of the player, or in the case of this post the team, to take those FGAs from beyond the arc. Dividing by minutes played implicitely measures the frequency of the outside shot. I have multiplied the result by 100 to develop a more readable stat. Ken Pomeroy introduced a modified version of Pelton's stat with his 2007 Preview of the Big 12 Conference with the explanation "...Inside is a knock off of Kevin Pelton's stat which attempts to quantify where a players shots come from...". Pomeroy's formula

Inside = (FTA - 3FGA) / FGA * 100

uses the difference of free throws attempts from three point attempts as a proportion of total field goal attempts. The underlying assumption is that because perimeter-oriented teams (POTs as defined by John Gasaway) take larger proportions of their FGAs beyond the arc, they are less likely to get to the free throw line to compensate for any missed FGAs, or and ones that come as bonuses for being fouled but making the shot anyway. Teams that shoot a lot of threes do not tend to get a lot of trips to the charity stripe.

A comparison of where the team took it's shots last season with where the returning players took their shots last season should provide a hint about the basic offensive orientation of each team going into fall practice. I added the returning minutes to give the reader a sense of whether the returning contingent can be expected to replace the departed offense. A team that returns a nucleus of players whose offensive orientation is unrepresentative of the coach's historic offensive philosophy could present the coaching staff with a choice -- to adapt the offense to the strengths offered by the nucleus of returning players, or encourage the nucleus to develop the offensive skill set of the departed squad members...or hope the freshmen come through.

	Ret.	Pelton		Pomeroy
	Min%	2011	2012	2011	2012
Cincinnati	59.2	1.30	3.15	4.69	10.41
Connecticut	61.7	1.33	0.35	4.57	1.36
DePaul	73.6	1.27	3.53	4.44	11.58
Georgetown	48.5	-0.98	-2.44	-3.70	-10.67
Louisville	71.4	-3.19	-2.85	-10.82	-10.86
Marquette	62.0	5.12	4.82	18.15	16.87
Notre Dame	54.4	1.72	0.40	6.50	1.56
Pittsburgh	57.3	4.29	1.99	15.70	7.12
Providence	79.1	1.29	1.08	4.13	3.91
Rutgers	47.8	0.83	5.71	3.04	20.56
Seton Hall	46.2	-0.56	2.43	-1.90	8.40
South Florida	58.2	1.91	-0.10	7.49	-0.34
St. John's	4.8	5.37	4.10	20.08	17.33
Syracuse	81.9	1.21	-0.85	4.29	-2.98
Villanova	52.3	2.49	5.65	9.07	22.79
West Virginia	39.3	2.06	3.40	7.45	10.06

A positive number indicates the team more likely took the FGA inside the arc; a negative number indicates they more likely took the shot outside of the three point line. The greater the value, the greater the tendency for either inside or outside play. A value of 0.0 suggests the team did not prefer one over the other.

Same old, same old?
That those returning to play the 2012 season for Louisville, Marquette and Providence show about the same tendency as the 2011 squad(s) is no surprise. Each of those programs returns a substantial proportion of the minutes (and points...) from last season. The rather large change in tendency for DePaul and Syracuse (and even to some degree, Connecticut) however, suggests those squads lost influential contributors from their offensives, contributors significant enough to change the character of the squad's offense going into 2012. Those are roles that Demon, Orange and Huskie staffers are going to have to replace somehow.

Focusing on Pomeroy's Inside stat for a second, I developed a three year look (combined with the Inside stat for the returning squad members) to see if there were any trends. Do teams become more "inside" oriented or "outside" oriented over time?

	Pomeroy for...
Team	2009	2010	2011	2012
Cincinnati	-7.44	-0.77	4.69	10.41
Connecticut	22.59	22.70	4.57	1.36
DePaul	-1.35	-1.64	4.44	11.58
Georgetown	5.50	6.83	-3.70	-10.67
Louisville	-6.40	-3.93	-10.82	-10.86
Marquette	10.78	-0.21	18.15	16.87
Notre Dame	-8.45	3.64	6.50	1.56
Pittsburgh	3.41	13.63	15.70	7.12
Providence	4.32	-1.90	4.13	3.91
Rutgers	-0.17	-0.66	3.04	20.56
Seton Hall	2.32	3.51	-1.90	8.40
South Florida	12.79	18.55	7.49	-0.34
St. John's	3.13	2.13	20.08	17.33
Syracuse	6.19	5.99	4.29	-2.98
Villanova	9.94	9.43	9.07	22.79
West Virginia	1.89	4.84	7.45	10.06

The lime highlight connotes a new coach's first first year. Regime change may explain large year-to-year adjustments for Marquette and Providence when looking at the second year for Keno Davis (Providence) and Buzz Williams (Marquette).

New Coaches, New Systems?
The large swing for St. John's (+2.13 to +20.08), when combined with the very high percentage of returning minutes/scoring from 2010 to 2011 (89.5% and 91% respectively) provide more proof (on the off chance that the Johnnies' record and advancement to the NCAAs last season was not enough...) that Coach Lavin did dramatically overhaul the offense with the same nucleus as 2010. The job facing the St. John's staff for 2012 will be daunting. And ignore the projected 2012 inside stat, that is basically Malik Stith, the only returning veteran in 2012. While it is tempting to attribute Seton Hall's decisive move to the outside (+3.51 to -1.90) to the philosophy of Head Coach Kevin Willard (and I have no doubt that Willard, whose first head coaching job came at Iona of the MAAC, is a bit more perimeter oriented than his predessor), the graduation of John Garcia and Nunu Harvey, two players (one front court and one back court) who tended to take it to the rim when they wanted to score. Willard recruited Patrik Auda, who took more threes in one season than Garcia did in his career, as a front court replacement. Chalk the decisive shift inside for DePaul (-1.64 to +4.44) to a coach who would not tolorate the slew of bad habits (lazy shot selection, "me first/me next" approach to offense) the Demons have developed lately. Not to mention Coach Purnell went out and signed a very nice front court player in Cleveland Melvin who managed to score efficiently while taking just over 26% of the possessions and over 30% of the team shots when he was on the court.

To project where the Friars will find their offense I looked at Coach Ed Cooley's last three seasons at Fairfield. With each succeeding season Cooley's squads "moved inside"; the 2011 Fairfield squad had an Inside stat of 17.16, decidedly more inside than Providence's 4.13. Factor in a (much) lower pace and an uncharacteristic emphasis on defense (both hallmarks of Cooley coached Fairfield squads), and the Friar Nation is in for something completely different this winter. Let's hope the fans embrace the new look offense and playing style.

Quick Hits
Since winning the National Championship back in 2004 Connecticut became (along with Pittsburgh under Coach Jamie Dixon) one of the most "inside oriented" teams in the Big East. Last season's pronounced shift towards the "outside" was uncharacteristic of the Huskies. The additional shift to the outside shown in the returning squad members reflects the loss of Kemba Walker, who despite some prolific shooting from beyond the arc (the junior took 227 three point attempts), was primarily an inside scorer, who posted an 11.9 Inside stat (Pomeroy's inside expression). Walker's departure was partly mitigated by the loss of Jamal Coombs-McDaniel, the foward who posted a remarkable -14.7 Inside stat, despite playing the #3/#4. If freshman Andre Drummond logs a lot of playing time and has any impact on the offense (beyond rebounding), look for the Huskies to post a 2012 Inside stat closer to 20 than 0.

Don't count on Syracuse becoming a POT (Perimeter Oriented Team) this season. The shift outside no doubt the void left by Rick Jackson, but the staff will find a body to fill that (offensive) role. Notice the inside stat did not vary by much from 2009-2011. Coach Boeheim has been doing this long enough to know what he is looking for offensively, and someone or some combination of players in the front court rotation will provide that element this season.

Villanova's Inside stat has been among the most consistent in the conference from 2009-2011, even steadier than Pittsurgh's or Connecticut's (two very Inside-oriented teams). That dramatic shift to the inside reflected by the returning players? Not to worry, as the returning players for 2011 showed a similar dramatic turn to the inside. And that projected re-orientation did not come to pass, despite the fact that the incoming freshmen (James Bell and JayVaughn Pinkston) played a far smaller role in the offense than anticipated (James was injured for part of the season and Pinkston, suspended for the school year before the first tip off, saw no playing time at all). If indeed the veterans are expected to produce the outside firepower necessary to rebalance the Inside stat (back towards) 9, the responsibility will fall to Dominic Cheek and Maalik Wayns. As much as I would like to think those two can step into the role, I suspect this year's Wildcats will have to -- uncharacteristically since Scottie Reynolds' freshman years -- look to freshmen (like Archaf Yacoubou and Ty Johnson for example) to contribute early and often.

Louisville's persistent migration to the outside in the period 2009-11 is the byproduct of the loss of Samardo Samuels. Despite great reviews coming into the Cardinal program out of high school, Terrence Jennings had no significant impact. Count on a more mature Gorgui Dieng and maybe Stephen Van Tresse to help rebalance the offense.

Inside-Outside in the Big East, 2010 Into 2011

Pelton vs Pomeroy And Other Issues
Keven Pelton, currently an author for The Basketball Prospectus developed the statistic as a shorthand for determining where a player (inside or outside of the three point line) tended to take his shots. The formula, Inside = (FTA - 3FGA) / Minutes, weighed free throw shots against three point shots to determine the propensity of the player, or in this case the team, to take those FGAs from beyond the arc. Dividing by minutes played implicitely measures the frequency of the outside shot. I have multiplied the result by 100 to develop a more readable stat. Ken Pomeroy introduced a modified version of Pelton's stat with his 2007 Preview of the Big 12 Conference with the explanation "...Inside is a knock off of Kevin Pelton's stat which attempts to quantify where a players shots come from...". Pomeroy's formula, Inside = (FTA - 3FGA) / FGA * 100, measures the difference of free throws versus three point attempts as a proportion of total field goal attempts. The underlying assumption is that perimeter-oriented teams (POTs as defined by John Gasaway) that take large proportions of their FGAs beyond the arc. Among the (unintended or no) effects include lack of contact, and consequently, lack of trips to the line. Teams that shoot a lot of threes do not tend to get a lot of trips to the charity stripe.

A comparison of where the team took it's shots last season with where the returning players took their shots last season should provide a hint about the basic offensive orientation of each team going into fall practice. I also noted the returning minutes to give the reader a sense of how representative the returning contingent might be going into next season. A team that returns a nucleus of players whose offensive orientation is "unrepresentative" of the coach's historic offensive philosophy presents the coaching staff with an interesting decision -- adapt the offense to the strengths offered by the nucleus of returning players, or recruit more players who can implement the historic offensive system. I have juxtaposed Pelton and Pomeroy's version of the Inside stat, but included the percentage of returning minutes to give the reader an idea of how big a change to expect in the line-up and game strategy.

	Ret.	Pelton		Pomeroy
	Min%	2010	2011	2010	2011
Cincinnati	63.7	-0.23	0.44	-0.77	0.15
Connecticut	43.6	6.26	5.63	22.70	24.10
DePaul	70.5	-0.46	-0.36	-1.64	-1.53
Georgetown	82.2	1.82	-0.98	6.83	-3.87
Louisville	50.0	-1.15	-3.44	-3.93	-12.50
Marquette	51.2	-0.06	5.04	-0.21	18.96
Notre Dame	59.2	1.00	0.76	3.64	3.05
Pittsburgh	84.4	3.55	4.50	13.63	17.59
Providence	47.2	-0.64	1.80	-1.90	5.67
Rutgers	59.9	-0.19	-1.43	-0.66	-5.59
Seton Hall	78.2	1.14	-0.61	3.51	-1.77
South Florida	42.0	4.90	6.40	18.55	27.25
St. John's	89.5	0.61	0.60	2.13	2.09
Syracuse	55.9	1.73	4.83	5.99	17.45
Villanova	66.0	2.78	4.97	9.43	17.94
West Virginia	55.0	1.37	1.27	4.84	4.73

A Paradox...
As a general observation virtually all of Pomeroy's year-over-year Inside stats for each team "moved in the same direction" as Pelton's. The exception was Connecticut. Pomeroy suggested the Huskies' returning nucleus will be more "Inside-oriented" than last season's squad. That makes sense as UConn lost Jerome Dyson and Stanley Robinson, two players who took 216 of the squad's total 403 three point attempts last season. How to reconcile Pomeroy's stat with Pelton's 6.26-to-5.26 change? A check of returning stats shows UConn ranked #15 in the conference for returning minutes, but the Huskies return an even smaller percentage of the FGAs (36.9%) and points scored (36.1%) than they did minutes. While their "returning 3FGAs" (44.9%) is about the same as returning minutes (43.6%), remember the returners were not the offensive workhorses last season. If Pomeroy's "Inside" stat shows the returners will take an even larger proportion of their FGAs as two point attempts, Pelton's number suggests that the returning players tended to take fewer FGAs than their departed teammates, though proportionally their FGAs will continue to be two point attempts.

New Coaches, New Systems?
The Big East welcomes a record-high four new coaches in 2010-11. For Rutgers' Mike Rice, the season should be a challenge, but relatively liberating in that the Scarlet Knight head coach will be relatively unencumbered with expectations. The Knights will offer a front-line rotation that includes little-used Tomasz Kokosinski, more-used Austin Johnson and rookie Gilvydas Biruta. All are really #4s, rather than #5s. Fans and staff may have to look to Dane Miller and Jon Mitchell to re-balance the inside scoring. If the 2011 Scarlet Knights exhibit enough enthusiasm for their new coach and don't embarrass themselves on the court the fans (and administration) will most likely give the Coach a pass this time around. Though DePaul, like St. John's and Seton Hall, returns a relatively high percentage of 2010 minutes, the Demons logged a single win in conference play last season, and that suggests Coach Oliver Purnell will cope with more modest set of expectations in this, his first, season. The modest move to a more "Inside" offense may be due to the loss of Will Walker (-25.1 on the Pomeroy scale) and Mac Koshwal (48.2 on the Pomeroy scale -- Koshwal took fewer FGAs than Walker). Purnell's last team at Clemson logged a collective 1.22 on the Pomeroy scale (0.359 using Pelton's calculation); of his three recruits for 2011, only Cleveland Melvin, at 6-8 shows the height necessary for a low post spot, but at 195 pounds, Melvin will have to hit the weight room if he wants to make an impact. Coach Purnell will have to look to his current roster (Krys Faber is the closest fit to a true #5) to find a better match. Like Rutgers' Coach Rice, Coach Purnell will most likely find the DePaul fan-base less focused on the win-loss percentages, and more on team play and attitude. That ought to provide him with the opportunity to experiment and give his guys (Melvin, #1 Brandon Young and #3 Moses Morgan) a bit more run.

For Seton Hall and St. John's the prospects for immediate improvement are much stronger, and consequently the challenge is greater. And that in itself may well feed fan expectations that could spell problems for their new coaches. The Johnnies return nearly 90% of last season's minutes and scoring, and this season's squad exhibits an "Inside" tendency almost identical to last season's (in this Pelton and Pomeroy agree). St. John's returned a similar percentage of minutes and points from 2009 to 2010, but improvement was marginal. That's why Steve Lavin replaced Coach Roberts. Basic improvements to game preparation and game management may be all the Johnnies need for that jump back into the conference's upper division. Or not. Embarking on a massive changeover to a different offensive system with a squad composed largely of seniors (65% of the returning minutes come from that class alone) carries risks that may be disproportionately large relative to the rewards. Seton Hall's shift to the outside reflects the loss of #5 John Garcia and penetrating (lead) guard Eugene Harvey. The squad as composed however, may be more to Coach Kevin Willard's liking. His last Iona team ranked in the upper 20% for three point attempts, and logged 33.2% of their points from beyond the arc, among the highest 10% in Division 1. According to Pomeroy (0.12), the Gaels were fairly balanced between inside and outside scoring. Pelton (0.032) seems to agree with Pomeroy, but with the caveat that Iona was not a high-volume shooting team. The Pirates will bring in Enil Polynice, a fifth year guard from Mississippi who likes to score from close-in. He was a volume scorer for Ole' Miss, the type of player the Pirates already have in abundance. Coach Willard also adds Patrik Auda and Aaron Geramipoor, two #4s who stand at 6-9 and 6-11 respectively. The only problem is that neither offers much by was of low post bulk. At 225 pounds, they are outweighed by 11 pounds to 6-8 Herb Pope.

Notes and Observations
1. Georgetown's shift to outside scoring reflects the large offensive role played by early departure (to the draft) of Greg Monroe. The Hoyas will look to Henry Simms and Julian Vaughn in part. Freshmen Nate Lubick (6-9, 222lbs) and even Moses Abraham (6-9, 240lbs) may well see some immediate playing time under the circumstances. For 2011 however, expect a scoring shift of some magnitude away from the low post.
2. Samardo Samuel's departure spells a similar shift for Louisville. The Cardinals have a few options on the roster, including junior Terrence Jennings and George Goode. Freshman Gorgui Dieng, a long (6-11) but light forward/center will also see time no doubt.
3. Marquette's massive "Inside" shift can be attributed to the loss of All-Big East first team player Lazar Hayward along with guards David Cubillan and Maurice Acker, three players who combined to take over 400 of Marquette's 664 three point attempts. Expect that "Inside" stat to shift back towards the outside when Coach Williams gets his back court rotation of Junior Cadougan, Darius Johnson-Odom, Dwight Buycks and freshman Vander Blue working together. Nobody in that group is gun-shy, and all are a threat from the inside and (more importantly for scoring balance) outside.
4. While a shift from (Pomeroy's scale) 9.43 to 17.91 is not likely for Villanova, the Wildcats have steadily shifted from an outside offense consistent with their "Guard U" reputation, to an inside offense better suited to compete at the highest levels of the Big East. The 'Cats 2009 "Inside" stat was 9.94, just slightly more "Inside" than their 9.43 from 2010. Should Mouphtaou Yarou and Antonio Pena form an effective front court tandem, expect the "Inside" stat to break 10 in 2011.

Inside-Outside in the Big East

The percentage of 3s is down a bit this season (see Ken Pomeroy) -- the pace is up (is there a relationship between the 2?). I wanted to take a look at the Big East teams to see who has moved "inside" and who has moved "outside". The table, using stats from the entire regular season has a few surprises...

Team	Min	FGA	3FGA	FTA	PomIO	PelIO
Connecticut	6025	1700	389	773	22.59	6.37
St. John's	6625	1864	453	692	12.82	3.61
Villanova	6225	1768	558	757	11.26	3.20
Marquette	6426	1868	642	823	9.69	2.82
Syracuse	6477	1888	614	757	7.57	2.21
Georgetown	6100	1534	551	652	6.58	1.66
Providence	6225	1892	664	754	4.76	1.45
South Florida	6225	1660	528	580	3.13	0.84
Pittsburgh	6200	1893	551	597	2.43	0.74
Seton Hall	6475	1942	608	653	2.32	0.69
West Virginia	6400	1913	644	676	1.67	0.50
Rutgers	6425	1748	565	562	-0.17	-0.05
DePaul	6600	1920	635	609	-1.35	-0.39
Louisville	6025	1786	663	584	-4.42	-1.31
Cincinnati	6473	1869	702	563	-7.44	-2.15
Notre Dame	6425	2051	709	535	-8.48	-2.71

Note -- I have shown both Pomeroy's and Pelton's Inside/Outside statistic. The team's ranking is the same irrespective of the formula used. Difference between the two is more an expression of magnitude of the tendency to use the three point shot.

Mr. Inside/Mr. Outside
Remember the team(s) that show no predisposition will be 0 (zero -- or near zero) on the scale. The more "inside oriented" the greater the non-negative number; the more negative the number, the more predisposed the team is to be "outside oriented". Connecticut and St. John's as the "inside" teams was no surprise. Connecticut was ranked "most inside" last season, with ratings, 23.4/6.62, much like this season. Notre Dame as an the "outside" team was a mild surprise given the presence of Luke Harangody in the paint. The Irish were ranked #11 in the conference (#1 is most inside, #16 is most outside) last season, with (Pomeroy/Pelton) ratings of 0.50/0.15 (respectively -- like the 2008 season, only 5 teams had ratings <0.0), with most outside team (Georgetown) rated at -6.19/-1.98 (not quite the same magnitude as Notre Dame this season). Villanova's move to the inside was a surprise. I suspected Cunningham's growth as an inside force this season (both points scored and percentage of shots taken) had "focused" the offense to look more often for points in the paint, but finding the Wildcats ranked #3 in the conference with numbers, 11.26/3.20, clearly multiples of last season's (ranked #7) 3.97/1.14 was a more significant shift to the inside than I expected.

Observations
1. Pittsburgh continues it's slow but steady shift to the outside. The Panthers of Ben Howland's tenure remain by reputation an inside team, but Jamie Dixon has recruited perimeter guards and developed a more balanced attack. Ranked #9 this season, the Panthers quietly dropped down from a #6 ranking last season.
2. With well publicized inside threats in Mike Williams, Yancy Gates, Steven Toyloy, Darnell Wilkes and Anthony McClain, I was surprised to see Cincinnati with an outside orientation second only to Notre Dame. Deonta Vaughn may well have taken a good many shots (especially from the outside it seems...), but he was hardly alone. Dion Dixon, Larry Davis and even Alvin Mitchell were also predisposed to take the 3 point shot. The predisposition to shoot 3FGAs, coupled with the team's not particularly high percentage of makes (about 33.3%), may well explain their sinking offensive efficiency at the end of the season. The Bearcats were a bubble team largely on the strength of a fast start in conference play. They stumbled a bit at the end of the season (4-6 in their last 10), but losing the 1st round of the BET to DePaul definitely knocked them off the bubble.
3. The conference continues to be inside-oriented. Of the 16 members, only 5 are outside-oriented, the same number (though not the same teams) as last season. The conference "average" using Pomeroy's calculation is 3.93.

Inside/Outside: Villanova, 2004 to 2008

As I was putting the team stats together for the previous post ("Big East 2007-08 -- Inside/Outside") I wondered if the stat would be useful as a descriptor for the Villanova teams going back 5 or so seasons. The personnel has changed over the years. That evolution is not limited to which people play specific positions, but the different skill sets and styles have fit together to form the team. How to quantify the "style" (inside? outside?) of each of the teams and combinations of players in the rotation? Employing Ken Pomeroy's calculation ((FTA-3FGA)/FGA) * 100) I decided to look at each of the past 5 teams.

Year	I/O	Players
2004	2.01	Foye, Fraser, Nardi, Ray, Sheridan, Sumpter
2005	3.59	Foye, Fraser, Nardi, Ray, Sheridan, Sumpter
2006	-3.24	Foye, Lowry, Nardi, Ray, Sheridan
2007	2.61	Clark, Cunningham, Nardi, Reynolds, Sheridan, Sumpter
2008	3.97	Clark, Cunningham, Fisher, Pena, Reynolds, Stokes

I listed the principal players in the rotations to provide a point of reference for the teams (apologies to Reggie Redding, 2007 & 2008; Shane Clark & Dante Cunningham, 2006, Kyle Lowry, 2005; Derrick Snowden, 2004...). That the 2006 team ("The Four Guards Offense"...) should stand apart is hardly surprising. The team is not characterized as even more "Outside" because of the collective ability of Foye, Lowry and Sheridan (and Jason Fraser, who logged a whopping 137.5 FTARate while playing about 35.6% of the available minutes at the #4/#5) to get to the free throw line. The inside/outside stat confirms the unique style of the 2005-06 team, just as it charts the renewed growing role of the inside game over the past 2 seasons. If the Nova Nation was disappointed in how Chris Charle's, Jason Fraser's and Will Sheridan's careers may have developed, the more recently recruited inside players, Dante Cunningham, Antonio Pena and Casiem Drummond have developed in ways more consistent with expectations. And the table confirms that the Wildcat's inside game has developed (rather than fan expectations being lowered...). If allowed a modest projection, I expect the inside stat to grow to between 5.5 and 7.0 this season, placing the 'Cats (see the previous post -- "Big East 2007-08 -- Inside/Outside") between St. John's and South Florida.

2007-08 Villanova Inside Out

I used the past two posts to look at 40 of the most "outside" and "inside" Big East players last season. I applied a 35% playing time as a filter. Three Wildcats showed up on those lists -- Corey Stokes, Dante Cunningham and Antonio Pena -- but what of the other nine scholarship players? Four Wildcats (Malcolm Grant, Andrew Ott, Cas Drummond and Frank Tchuisi) did not log enough time (< 35.0% of the available playing time...) to be considered with the other Big East players while the other five (Corey Fisher, Dwayne Anderson, Scottie Reynolds, Shane Clark and Reggie Redding) were ranked by both Pomeroy and Pelton.

						In/Out		Rank
Player	Min	Min%	FGA	3FGA	FTA	KPom	Pelton	Pelton	KPom
Corey Stokes	642	45.9	202	135	42	-46.0	-14.5	7	5
M. Grant	367	26.2	118	73	44	-24.6	-7.9	NA	NA
Corey Fisher	745	53.2	294	124	79	-15.3	-6.0	30	37
D. Anderson	630	45.0	145	66	43	-15.9	-3.7	37	35
S. Reynolds	1139	81.3	398	206	190	-4.0	-1.4	46	46
Shane Clark	713	50.9	180	56	63	3.9	1.0	58	59
R. Redding	723	51.6	140	36	68	22.9	4.4	74	79
Andrew Ott	16	1.1	4	1	2	25.0	6.3	NA	NA
Cunningham	1050	75.0	261	0	116	44.4	11.0	92	93
Drummond	278	19.9	82	0	36	43.9	12.9	NA	NA
Antonio Pena	678	48.4	183	6	96	49.2	13.3	97	97
F. Tchuisi	13	0.9	6	0	4	66.7	30.8	NA	NA

I have the players listed in "Outside to Inside" order, ie, Corey Stokes heads the list because his shot selection & frequency of free throw suggest his is the greatest tendency to play on the wing/back court. The lower in the list the greater the tendency to play on the inside. Note that Andrew Ott and Malcolm Grant transferred out of the program, to Penn State and Miami (Fla) respectively. Ott will be eligible to play at the end of the fall 2008 semester, while Grant will be eligible to play in the 2009-10 season.

Notes & Observations...
1. The Pelton/Pomeroy rankings for the Villanova players are relatively close, unlike Byron Joynes (see the inside players post), with Scottie Reynolds and Antonio Pena hitting dead-on in both lists. The greatest disparity is Corey Fisher, who is listed seven positions apart in the two lists.
2. That the players always rated as outside (a value <0) or inside (a value > 0) is hardly surprising as both formulas subtract 3 point attempts (3FGAs) from free throw attempts (FTAs). In addition to suggesting where the player takes his field goal attempts, the operation also implies something about the amount of contact the player takes as part of his game. The assumption (true for the most part) is that the more the player "works" inside the paint the more frequent the contact (and subsequent free throw attempts). In Villanova's case there are few surprises; the guards & wings tend to have negative values while power/big forwards and centers tend to have positive numbers. Clark's rating of 1.0 is pretty consistent with his role as an inside players who switches between the #3 and #4 depending on who else is on the court too. Reggie Redding's reluctance to shoot 3s (he took about 25% of his FGAs as 3s) stands in stark contrast to back court mates Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes and Malcolm Grant who took between 42% (Fisher) and 67% (Stokes) of their FGAs as 3s. While Reggie took very few shots from the outside, his reputation as an overall reluctant shooter was sealed last season as his FGAs declined from November to March, from 5.4 in OOC games to 3.6 in Big East play, down to 1.4 in the postseason.
3. Scottie Reynolds (-1.4 on the Pelton Scale) and Shane Clark (1.0 on the Pelton Scale) are the players operating closest to neutral, showing the smallest bias to play either inside (Clark) or outside (Reynolds). Given that each had a 3 point jumper in his offensive repertoire (), disabuses any notions of either being a reluctant shooter. Clark was less involved in the offense than I anticipated during the preseason however. I believed he would assume a "regular/sharter" type role, taking about 20% or so of the available shots when he was playing. And he did during the OOC part of the schedule. But he seemed to again be slowed by a physical condition once the Big East season was under way. The timing was unfortunate as Drummond was sidelined with a foot injury.

2007-08 Outside According to Pelton & Pomeroy

I wrote several posts in August of 2007 that identified Big East players as "inside" or "outside" players based on the difference between the number of their free throw attempts and their 3 point attempts, divided by (based on whether you value Kevin Pelton's or Ken Pomeroy's approach) their minutes played or the total of their field goal attempts. I looked at both inside and outside players in turn using the formulas developed by Ken Pomeroy, a stats guru who writes exclusively about college (D1) basketball and Kevin Pelton, a statistician who writes about pro (primarily the NBA) and international basketball. Ironically both analysts began writing (non collaboratively) for a startup website, The Basketball Prospectus last October.

This time I decided to look at outside, then inside players, juxtaposing Pomeroy's (values under the KPom column) and Pelton's (under the Pelton column below) calculation for easier comparison. The Big East's 20 highest rated "Outside" players, according to Pelton's formula (the more negative the number the greater the tendency to play wing and shoot 3s, the higher the rank), are listed below. I ranked only players who logged 35% or more of the playing available in their position.

Name	College	Min	Min%	FGA	3FGA	FTA	KPom	Pelton
Dan Fitzgerald	MU	428	43.9	102	87	13	-72.5	-17.3
Jeremy Hazell	SHU	874	67.0	331	234	93	-42.6	-16.1
Larry Wright	Johns	547	45.4	205	132	44	-42.9	-16.1
Jeff Xavier	PC	981	78.2	327	209	56	-46.8	-15.6
David Cubillan	MU	598	61.3	158	116	23	-58.9	-15.6
Kyle McAlarney	NDU	1178	88.9	383	245	68	-46.2	-15.0
Corey Stokes	VU	642	45.9	202	135	42	-46.0	-14.5
Alex Ruoff	WVU	1179	78.6	353	239	92	-41.6	-12.5
Brian McKenzie	PC	878	70.0	273	138	37	-37.0	-11.5
Andre McGee	Ville	732	65.1	184	132	49	-45.1	-11.3
Jamar Nutter	SHU	945	72.4	292	177	70	-36.6	-11.3
Deonta Vaughn	Nati	1069	82.9	408	244	128	-28.4	-10.9
Jon Wallace	GTU	985	71.9	251	159	58	-40.2	-10.3
Donte Greene	SU	1253	89.2	521	261	133	-24.6	-10.2
Dwain Williams	PC	656	52.3	190	118	51	-35.3	-10.2
Jesse Sapp	GTU	911	66.5	256	151	58	-36.3	-10.2
Ronald Ramon	Pitt	1174	78.8	260	180	62	-45.4	-10.1
Ryan Ayers	NDU	803	60.6	179	116	40	-42.5	-9.5
Jeron Griffin	RU	780	62.4	248	122	49	-29.4	-9.4
Dar Tucker	DPU	685	56.8	329	156	92	-19.5	-9.3

Seniors and players who have run through their eligibility are highlighted in yellow, transfers in olive green and Donte Greene (freshman to NBA draft) in blue. Thirteen of the 20 players are slated (as of early September) to return to play in 2008-09. Andy Rautins, a Syracuse wing guard ranked 1^st using both formulas in the 2006-07 season and sidelined by an ACL injury last season, will return to the Orange for 2008-09. Rautins should provide an outside dimension Coach Boeheim's team lacked last season. Those familiar with my posts in 2007 August, or who have followed Big East basketball over the past two seasons will no doubt recognize Dan Fitzgerald (Marquette), David Cubillian (Marquette), Brian McKenzie (Providence), Jamar Nutter (Seton Hall), Deonta Vaughn (Cincinnati) and Ron Ramon (Pittsburgh), all repeated appearances on either or both of Pelton's and Pomeroy's Top 10 Outside list from 2006-07 to appear on the 2007-08 list.

Observations & Notes...
1. Larry Wright, who ranked 2^nd on this list is the second Johnnies "Outside" player to transfer in the past two off seasons. Avery Patterson who ranked second on Pelton's list from the 2006-07 season transferred during the summer of 2007.
2. Pomeroy and Pelton calculations tend to find the same Outside players. Pelton's 7 highest ranked Big East players are also ranked among Pomeroy's first 10. Pelton and Pomeroy "agree" on eight of their first 10.
3. Kyle McAlarney of Notre Dame ranked at #6 (#4 by Pomeroy) is no surprise; Ryan Ayers, a small forward for the Irish ranked at #18 (#10 by Pomeroy) is. I always thought Ayers' shot selection was a bit more balanced.
4. Brian McKenzie (Providence) ranked in their top 10 by both Pelton and Pomeroy, Deonta Vaughn (Cincinnati) and David Cubillian (Marquette) have been ranked in two successive seasons. They will be juniors next season.
5. Villanova's own Corey Stokes was ranked #7 by Pelton and #5 by Pomeroy.

Inside/Outside According to Pelton

Kevin Pelton originally developed the Inside stat to determine the tendency of any NBA player to play on the wing as opposed to the paint. As Pelton himself described the stat "... It's really amazingly simple - (FTA-3PA)/MIN...(but)...is not exact...". Applying Pelton's metric to Big East players who logged 32% or more time at their respective positions produced this Top 10 List of Inside players:

Player	Coll	MIN	Min%	FGA	3FGA	FTA	Inside
Kentrell Gransberry	USF	656	54.2	239	0	149	22.71
Paul Harris	Cuse	758	54.3	217	20	166	19.26
Luke Harangody	NDU	658	51.4	290	1	114	17.17
Adrian Hill	RU	726	61.8	169	1	120	16.39
Aaron Gray	Pitt	1016	67.7	361	0	166	16.34
Roy Hibbert	Gtown	975	65.7	277	0	153	15.69
Jeff Adrien	UConn	1027	82.5	314	1	162	15.68
Lamont Hamilton	St. John's	886	71.2	281	37	175	15.58
Hasheem Thabeet	UConn	762	61.2	121	0	115	15.09
Rob Kurz	NDU	868	67.8	226	49	179	14.98

This list contains those old familiar faces -- and in roughly the order I would have expected. But there are, for me anyway, three surprises -- Rob Kurz, Adrien Hill and Paul Harris. These three show up on Pomeroy's list (see my previous inside/outside post, "Inside/Outside According to Pomeroy") too:

• If Notre Dame produced one name for this list, Rob Kurz is not the one I expected. And for Notre Dame, a program which under Mike Brey's stewardship has not developed a reputation for strong inside play, to produce 2 players for the Inside list is very surprising.
• Paul Harris not only shows up twice, but he appears prominently on both lists. The multiple listing (Pelton & Pomeroy) re-enforces the preconception that Harris' strongest play is inside the paint.
• Like Kurz and Harris, Rutger's senior center Adrien Hill appeared on both lists. Of the three Hill was the least publicized. In fact Hill may have been the least publicized big man on either list.

Pelton's top 10 Outside List also contains a few surprises:

Player	Coll	MIN	Min%	FGA	3FGA	FTA	Inside
Andy Rautins	Cuse	741	53.1	226	188	24	-22.13
Avery Patterson	St. John's	904	72.6	308	220	42	-19.69
Frank Young	WVU	1130	95.0	415	263	77	-16.46
Jamar Nutter	The Hall	911	77.2	352	218	71	-16.14
Brian McKenzie	PC	421	33.7	104	78	12	-15.68
Colin Falls	NDU	1027	80.2	314	250	102	-14.41
Melvin Buckley	USF	1070	88.4	391	228	83	-13.55
Deonta Vaughn	Cin	989	81.7	407	216	89	-12.84
Mike Nardi	Nova	961	75.1	305	187	76	-11.55
Dan Fitzgerald	MU	719	75.3	172	122	42	-11.13

This list contains 6 common names with Pomeroy's top 10 Outside players. The four newcomers, Melvin Buckley (USF), Deonta Vaughn (Cincinnati), Mike Nardi (Nova) and Dan Fitzgerald (Marquette), all contributed more than occasionally to their respective teams last season. Coming from teams that struggled throughout the year, Buckley and Vaughn may have be lesser known players outside their respective fan bases. A few of the surprises (at least to me):

• Rautins & Patterson appeared in the top 3 of both lists, with Rautins again taking top honors. Neither will play this season. Rautins, who tore an ACL playing for Team Canada, will redshirt as he rehabs post surgery, while Patterson transferred to a DII school in May. I have to think Syracuse and St. John's will miss these guys...
• Brian McKenzie appears on both Pelton's and Pomeroy's top 10 Outside List. The Friars are touring Italy now and again McKenzie is taking a relatively high proportion of his shots as 3s (8/18 as of Aug. 30).
• The Hall's Jamar Nutter appeared on both lists as well. The slam on Nutter over the years has been consistency. He is in his fifth year of eligibility and putting together a good run would really help the Hall.
• Notre Dame contributed two names to Pelton's Inside list but only one name (not surprising that it is Colin Falls) to his Outside List. Brey has cast Notre Dame as a perimeter oriented team, so the sudden prolific inside players is extremely surprising.

Dante was "Mr. Inside" for the Wildcats. The balance of the ranking remained the same, which means Dwayne Anderson remains "Mr. Outside".

Player	MIN	Min%	FGA	3FGA	FTA	Inside
Dante Cunningham	879	68.7	189	1	113	12.74
Bilal Benn	246	19.2	28	2	29	10.98
Casiem Drummond	130	10.2	25	0	12	9.23
Will Sheridan	829	64.8	129	5	62	6.88
Curtis Sumpter	955	74.6	400	141	166	2.62
Scottie Reynolds	962	75.2	353	169	175	0.62
Reggie Redding	429	33.5	82	38	25	-3.03
Shane Clark	776	60.6	187	100	52	-6.19
Mike Nardi	961	75.1	305	187	76	-11.55
Dwayne Anderson	189	14.8	58	45	18	-14.29

Given what I know of Villanova's roster and play in 2006-07, the ranking order and values relative to each player "feel" pretty accurate.

Inside/Outside According to Pomeroy

Ken Pomeroy introduced a stat which he called "Inside" as part of his Big 12 2006-07 Preview. The formula, =100*(FTA-3FGA)/FGA, quantifies the common elements of perimeter-oriented play on the collegiate level...

• A ratio of 3 point to 2 point FGAs.
• Lack of contact & resulting fouls. Offensive schemes which feature close in scoring via penetration or passing into the low post often result in a foul and FTA as the possession-ending action.

The larger the positive value the greater that player's tendency to play "inside", while the larger the negative number, the greater the tendency to play on the perimeter (the "outside"). Using playing time (about 32% minimum) as a filter, the ten "most inside" players were:

Player	Coll	MIN	FGA	3FGA	FTA	Inside
Hasheem Thabeet	Uconn	762	121	0	115	95
Hamady N'Diaye	RU	387	56	0	42	75
Adrian Hill	RU	726	169	1	120	70
Paul Harris	'Cuse	758	217	20	166	67
Darryl Watkins	'Cuse	961	180	0	116	64
Zach Hillesland	NDU	628	121	0	76	63
Kentrell Gransberry	USF	656	239	0	149	62
David Padgett	Lville	807	186	1	113	60
Dante Cunningham	Nova	879	189	1	113	59
Rob Kurz	NDU	868	226	49	179	58

Pomeroy had suggested that for regular players the range should be about +70...0...-70. Thabeet and N'Diaye fall outside of that range. Neither however, played a significant role their team's offense. N'Diaye's Poss% & Shot% were 15.2 and 11.1 respectively, suggesting his biggest contributions were on the defensive side of the ball. Thabeet's numbers, 15.0 & 11.0, respectively are strangely similar to N'Diaye's, and show that he is not a focal point for the Husky offense. Aside from the range the names and reputations are consistent with frontcourt players -- David Padgett, Darryl Watkins, Dante Cunningham and Kentrell Gransberry. Two elements did surprise me though. Rob Kurz, Zach Hillesland appeared among these 10, both are from Notre Dame, not a program with a big frontcourt reputation. Paul Harris and Rob Kurz are decidedly not center, bf-type players. But the formula suggests they are more "inside oriented" than I might have thought. I also noticed that Roy Hibbert, Luke Harangody, Aaron Gray & Terrence Roberts, players who were large contributors to their team's offenses are not in this list.

Player	Coll	MIN	FGA	3FGA	FTA	Inside
Andy Rautins	'Cuse	741	226	188	24	-73
Brian McKenzie	PC	421	104	78	12	-63
Avery Patterson	St.John's	904	308	220	42	-58
David Cubillan	MU	702	142	111	37	-52
Colin Falls	NDU	1027	314	250	102	-47
Dan Fitzgerald	MU	719	172	122	42	-47
Ronald Ramon	Pitt	884	209	164	68	-46
Frank Young	WVU	1130	415	263	77	-45
Alex Ruoff	WVU	1171	303	198	70	-42
Jamar Nutter	the Hall	911	352	218	71	-42

"Mr. Outside", Andy Rautins, also falls slightly outside of the range identified by Ken Pomeroy. Unlike N'Diaye & Thabeet however Rautins's numbers, 17.1 and 21.1, do represent more than an occasional contributor to the Orange offense. Finding two players from John Beilein's system (Alex Ruoff & Frank Young) is not surprising. Finding Providence's Brian McKenzie on the list is. McKenzie, a rising freshman is another unheralded backcourt find for HC Tim Welsh. David Cubillan and Dan Fitzgerald of Marquette provided the wing dimension in HC Tom Crean's offense. Fitzgerald played the #4 (Steve Novak's role for the Warriors over the past 4 seasons), appeared in all 33 games and started 11. Cubillan was an all-purpose backcourt backup who took additional minutes when Jerel McNeal broke his hand. If the list is to be trusted, both Andy Rautins (torn ACL) and Avery Patterson (transfer) will be missed this season. The Villanovans:

Player	MIN	FGA	3FGA	FTA	Inside
Bilal Benn	246	28	2	29	96
Dante Cunningham	879	189	1	113	59
Casiem Drummond	130	25	0	12	48
Will Sheridan	829	129	5	62	44
Curtis Sumpter	955	400	141	166	6
Scottie Reynolds	962	353	169	175	2
Reggie Redding	429	82	38	25	-16
Shane Clark	776	187	100	52	-26
Mike Nardi	961	305	187	76	-36
Dwayne Anderson	189	58	45	18	-47

The order of the players may be a little surprising, but as a classification, each player appears to be "typed" (Inside/Outside) properly. Bilal Benn's ranking is no doubt due to the distortion of marginal play.

Pomeroy credited "Inside" to Kevin Pelton a Sonics sportswriter and moderator for APBRmetrics. Pomeroy explained that he modified the stat by using field goal attempts in place of minutes played. After reviewing the Top 10 lists, I was curious to see the differences if I used Pelton's original formula.