Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: A Quick Recap of Miami & Missouri State

by Ray Floriani

LYNDHURST, NJ - Hoping to catch the Marist women's second round game at Duke but ESPN2 had us tuned in to Tennessee-Marquette at Knoxville. Marquette battled gamely but enough of the added Bruce pearl 'post-mortems'. Switched over to Miami and Missouri State in the NIT and decided to do some early second half charting. At intermission Missouri State had a 32-26 lead over Miami. What transpired the first four minutes, and then some, was on the borderline of amazing. The Miami possessions to open the second half:

1. 3 Pt. FG
2. FG + made FT
3. 3 Pt. FG
4. FG
5. FG
6. 3 Pt. FG
7. Two free throws (16:00 44-39 Miami, an offensive efficiency of 257)
8. 3 Pt. FG
9. FG
10. FG + made FT (14:06 52-41 Miami)
11. FG
12. Miss rebounded by defense (54-41 Miami)

First 11 possessions saw 28 Miami points, talk about a true Hurricane (category five?), for an offensive efficiency of 255. Amazing stat, it took a full 20 to score 26 points but 6 to ring up 28 after intermission. It wasn't a case of Missouri State letting up defensively. Miami had four deep threes. All of them courtesy of Adrian Thomas, who shot 0 for 5 the first half and was shut out in the scoring column. The senior forward extended his career another day scoring 16 points on the night.

The Hurricanes emerged 81-72 victors, carrying the banner of the ACC , a conference making some noise in 'March Madness'.

I am sure somewhere there was a team that scored on more than eleven straight possessions. Willing to believe it hasn't happened a great deal and probably not in post season tournament competition.

Miami advanced in the 63 possession game. Another point to drive home, the 'Canes did not simply put up big numbers in a run and gun all out transition tempo. The final efficiency saw Missouri State at 114, good enough to win many a game. But not when you give up the 129 enjoyed by the Hurricanes.

Finally, did catch the last few minutes of the Marist game. A heartbreaking loss for the Red Foxes. That is however, for another time.

The 2010 NIT Tip-Off -- a Second Look

Mixing in Pomeroy
As ESPN and other media outlets were pushing the invitational tournament out the door last August I posted an overview and quick analysis of the NIT Tip-Off Tournament, Villanova's early season invitational tournament. In the past two weeks the first round matchups have been officially announced and additional statistical data has been developed (primarily by Ken Pomeroy & the folks at the Basketball Prospectus), so it seems appropriate to revisit the NIT field and review the pod matchups.

The Field -- a Quick Review
Recall the field, sorted by region, with the host team listed first as it appeared in my Auguat post:

(North) Villanova	Big East		(South) Tennessee	SEC
Boston University	Am. East		Arkansas State	Sun Belt
George Washington	A-10		Belmont	Atl. Sun
Marist	MAAC		Missouri State	MVC
(East) Wake Forest	ACC		(West) UCLA	Pac-10
Hampton	MEAC		Nevada	WAC
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA		Pacific	Big West
Winthrop	Big South		Pepperdine	WCC

My overview/analysis relied heavily on 2010 season-ending possession-based stats from Ken Pomeroy's web site. In the past week (or so) the Basketball Prospectus has published it's preview for the season, a work that provides a preview for all 345 D1 teams. Ken Pomeroy has also released his Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) and project "starting" offensive and defensive efficiencies for every team in D1. So, armed with new numbers, it is time to take another look at the field.

For each pod site, I have given the revised possession-based information for each team.

The East Region
The NIT folks locked up the pod hosts over a year ago. I have to think this would have made more sense for the 2012 or 2013 tournament, after Wake Forest's new head coach Jeff Bzdelik had time to settle in and assemble "his" team. The teams are paired according to their first round games (Wake vs Hamption and Virginia Commonwealth vs Winthrop)...

	2011 Projected
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
Wake Forest	70.1	104.2	98.3	0.6603
Hampton	66.7	90.1	99.4	0.2456
VCU	68.0	109.9	96.1	0.8234
Winthrop	65.2	93.5	99.3	0.3335

The preponderance of previews project a lower division ACC conference finish for the Deacons. While Wake Forest will take their first round game (versus Hampton) by a comfortable margin (according to Pomeroy -- and to a very high degree of confidence too), but they have to pray that Winthrop will upset Virginia Commonwealth, as a second round match-up with Shaka Smart's VCU squad is the upset special for this tournament. A "log5 take" on the second round match-up between the Deacons and Rams suggests a Rams win to a 70.6% certainty. While I did not factor for home court advantage, Joel Coliseum cannot match New Mexico's Pit for intimidation, and even the Pit would be hard pressed to overcome a 2-to-1 log5 winning margin. Yikes. The pod losers will be routed to a consolation bracket to be hosted at the campus of one of the losing schools. Maybe Wake will host one of the consolation sites.

West Region
UCLA's rebuilding job is apparent by the PWP (as computed by Pomeroy). Which (again) points to the problem of locking up the pod hosts a year or more in advance of the tournament...

	2011 Projected
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
UCLA	66.3	111.5	95.1	0.8617
Pepperdine	67.1	98.3	101.1	0.4474
Nevada	68.7	98.5	104.3	0.3405
Pacific	62.6	105.6	98.7	0.6846

I wrote in the August post that the pod scheduler would resist the temptation to schedule by name and match-up Nevada with UCLA in the first (rather than second) round. No one listens to me anyway. The Pacific-Nevada game should be pretty good, but the Wolfpack is much depleted, and though they are "officially" the #8 seed in the tournament field, they will not survive Pacific. This pod could be the second "most likely" second round upset in the tournament if it comes to a UCLA-Pacific match. Pacific is not favored (at this point -- that could change based on early games...), theirs and UCLA's PWPs hint at a close second round game with UCLA holding a 74.2% certainty of winning. Should seed holds through the first round however, UCLA has to be heavily favored to brush aside any challenge from the Wolfpack.

South Region
The revised numbers turned Tennessee's pod into the most challenging of the field, though the Vols remain the strong favorite...

	2010 Adjusted
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
Tennessee	68.3	110.4	90.9	0.9028
Belmont	69.3	105.0	96.7	0.7191
Missouri St.	65.5	109.2	96.4	0.8085
Arkansas St.	67.0	97.5	99.0	0.4571

I observed in August the Belmont-Missouri State game would most likely be the best of the tournament...in the first round anyway. Tennessee, it turns out, will face Belmont in the first round, while Missouri State drew Arkansas State. Both the Bears and Red Wolves return substantial percentages of their 2010 minutes and points, but Pomeroy calls the Missouri State-Arkansas State game for Missouri State (by 11 points) to an 84% "certainty" (that's pretty strong). Tennessee takes their game (according to the log5 forumula) game with Belmont (by 12 points) to a 87% certainty. I was a little surprised Coach Bruce Pearl did not take Arkansas State as their first round opponent, but Belmont will help the Vols' RPI more than Arkansas State. The second round game should go to the Vols also, with a log5 calculated certainty of 68.7% (cannot adjust until games are played), Wake-VCU aside, this is probably the most competitive second round game involving a pod host.

North Region
The games are scheduled for the Pavilion, a shame since they may have been able to sellout the Well Fargo Center (or whatever they are calling the Wach this season), but probably could not get the facility for two consecutive days...

	2010 Adjusted
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
Villanova	70.3	114.0	93.5	0.9079
Marist	65.9	94.0	104.3	0.2316
George Washington	67.0	102.2	97.2	0.6398
Boston University	68.3	103.0	99.9	0.5853

The first round match-ups will pit Villanova against Marist, with George Washington, the A-10's representative in this tournament, matched with Boston University. The Wildcats are favored (log5 formula) with a 98% certainty (a 25+ point margin), probably the most decisive first round in the tournament. The GW-BU game will be more competitive (probably the most competitive game of the first round), with Pomeroy (and log5) favoring George Washington by a point, at 56%. 56% is not quite toss-up territory, but very close as suggested by the computed one point margin. Should seed hold, expect Villanova and GWU will face off for the second round and pod win, with Villanova favored to an 84.3% certainty. That would be the least competitive second round game in the field.

The Semi-Finals and Beyond
The official bracket confirms the committee is looking for a Tennessee - Villanova final. Villanova was seeded #1 in the field, while Tennessee is seeded #2. Villanova will meet #4 seed UCLA while Tennessee drew #3 seed Wake Forest (hmmm). Virginia Commonwealth, should the Rams upset Wake, will draw Tennessee, which ought to be a good matchup for the favored Vols. Staying with Pomeroy's preseason PWP, Tennessee is projected to win with a confidence of 66.7%. Neutral site computations are a bit easier. Expect a last update with some log5 projections after the pod winners are settled.

Further Reading...
My August "Too Early" post.
The Official NIT Tip Off Site
Other Early Season Invitationals with teams, dates and sites. From CBS.

The 2010 NIT Tip-Off -- A Too Early Look at the Field

Filling Out the Field
News about early season invitationals for the 2011 season have been leaking out in dribs and drabs for the past two months. The NIT Tip Off, operated by the Metropolitan Intercollegiate Basketball Association, owners and operators of the post season NIT, was inaugurated in 1985 as a counter move to the dwindling prospects for post season event (and later purchased by the NCAA as part of the settlement of MIBA's anti-trust law suit against the NCAA). From the first season, the event attracted a field of the top schools, and continues to do so every season. A move to the pod schedule format a number of years ago gives the tournament's preliminary round(s) a look and feel similar to a number of TV and impresario backed events like the Paradise Jam, the Legends Classic among others. Like the Legends Classic, the preliminary rounds are hosted at four separate sites -- the four top seeds. Unlike the Legends however, the pod hosts, heavily favored by high-major status and home court advantage, must win in order to advance to the Championship rounds (semi and finals) in New York City. The pod hosts for this edition of the tournament are Villanova (North), Tennessee (South), Wake Forest (East) and UCLA (West). The pod rounds (the preliminary rounds) will match the host and three invited teams to two games at the host site. First round winners at each pod site will play a second round game to determine who advances to New York City for the semi-final round. The three teams at each site who do not advance to New York City will play two additional Consolation Round games at site of the three highest seeded teams.

The Field
Four of the six above the "Red Line" conferences, the ACC, Big East, Pac-10 and SEC, are represented and will host the four sites for the preliminary rounds. The 12 "visiting" teams are drawn from conferences generally local to each pod site. The field, sorted by region, with the host team listed first:

(North) Villanova	Big East		(South) Tennessee	SEC
Boston University	Am. East		Arkansas State	Sun Belt
George Washington	A-10		Belmont	Atl. Sun
Marist	MAAC		Missouri State	MVC
(East) Wake Forest	ACC		(West) UCLA	Pac-10
Hampton	MEAC		Nevada	WAC
Virginia Commonwealth	CAA		Pacific	Big West
Winthrop	Big South		Pepperdine	WCC

The teams are listed alphabetically within each region. The field definitely has a "bi-coastal" flavor, as the Big East, ACC and Pac-10 have many members located along the Atlantic and Pacific coastal region. Note however that the conference affiliation for each of the three "guests" in those three pods also have strong representation along the left and right coastlines. A product no doubt, related to the host sites. I wanted a bit more detail about the participants in each of the preliminary round sites, so tracked down RPI, won-loss records and returning minutes/points from the team sites, and some possession-based stats from Ken Pomeroy's web site. For each pod site, I have given the record information, followed by the possession-based information.

The East Region
The breakdown suggests this could be a very interesting mini-tournament. In the same way that throwing a party in the middle of a remodeling project is interesting...

	2010 Season			2011 Returning
	RPI	W	L	Mins.	Pts.
Wake Forest	39	19	10	32.9	34.1
Hampton	283	14	18	66.8	59.1
VCU	136	22	9	82.7	85.3
Winthrop	160	17	13	69.7	73.9

Pod hosting for a team with an RPI (2010) of #39 makes good sense. Looking no farther, one could tease out a seed arrangement that would have Wake Forest play Hampton and Virginia Commonwealth (VCU) play Winthrop (of the Big South Conference) in their first round game. Consider however that Wake hired Jeff Bzdelik barely four months ago, and the former Colorado (of the Big 12) coach has had to replace over 65% of his minutes and points from last season's squad. And wait, it gets worse...

	2010 Adjusted
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
Wake Forest	69.9	106.5	91.4	0.852
Hampton	67.5	94.3	99.2	0.358
VCU	68.9	113.5	96.1	0.870
Winthrop	65.4	89.5	95.7	0.316

Coach Bzdelik's Colorado struggled during his tenure, but pace and adjusted offensive efficiency were about the same as Wake's over the same period...but Wake Forest had a much better defense. VCU on the other hand appears to be in pretty good shape. I was a little surprised by the Rams' strong Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP), but the squad did win the post season CBI Tournament to close out the 2010 season. All things equal (while checking out Wake's and VCU's PWP), I would favor Wake by just under whatever they get for home court advantage. VCU's coach, Shaka Smart, however, enters his second season as head coach with over 80% of his squad's minutes and over 85% of their points coming back. Coach Bzdelik may not be able to run full practices with his squad until mid October, but I have to think he is breaking down VCU film now. This could be a very bumpy beginning to his tenure at Wake.

West Region
Like Wakes' Coach Bzdelik, UCLA's coach, Ben Howland, has something of a rebuilding job in 2011, so the timing for accepting an NIT Tip-Off hosting job is interesting...

	2010 Season			2011 Returning
	RPI	W	L	Mins.	Pts.
UCLA	137	14	18	53.4	52.3
Nevada	73	19	12	21.5	12.3
Pacific	128	20	11	66.4	70.5
Pepperdine	303	6	23	99.6	100.0

This region also looks like the host will attempt to entertain while undertaking an rebuilding project. Based on RPI alone, one would think the match-ups would be Nevada versus Pepperdine and UCLA versus Pacific in the first round. Since UCLA hosts however, they get to pick their cupcake, so I suspect the Bruins will take the Wave, while Nevada and Pacific play the under-card match. This West however, is almost as muddy as the East. Nevada may have the better RPI, but second year Coach David Carter faces a rebuilding job even more extensive as Wake's Coach Bzdelik. Presumptive top seed? No actually. In fact the Wolfpack may have a tough time getting by the Tigers in the first round (assuming they are matched with Pacific). Pacific, coached by 24 year veteran Bob Thomason (21 years at Pacific), returns nearly 2/3 of the Tigers' 2010 minutes and over 70% of their points.

	2010 Adjusted
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
UCLA	65.6	105.8	99.2	0.679
Nevada	70.0	111.4	101.3	0.749
Pacific	61.9	104.3	96.3	0.714
Pepperdine	66.7	95.0	109.3	0.167

Looking past the first round games, a Pacific--UCLA match-up would put two teams with very similar profiles head-to-head. They have similar offensive and defensive efficiencies (Pacific is actually a bit better). Coach Howland has no problem with a slightly lower possession rate, should Pacific control the tempo. And again, Pacific's Pythagorean Winning Percentage is higher than UCLA's. Should the Bruins and Tigers survive the first round, this second round match may come down to the Pauley Pavilion's intimidation factor. Will the Tigers be able to filter out the distractions and focus on the game? Pacific's Coach Thomason has a 15-9 record versus Nevada, a 5-2 record versus and incredibly, a 0-0 record versus UCLA.

South Region
Tennessee is probably in the best spot as one of the host sites...

	2010 Season			2011 Returning
	RPI	W	L	Mins.	Pts.
Tennessee	14	25	8	57.1	51.0
Arkansas St.	202	15	14	92.2	92.9
Belmont	135	19	12	80.9	76.6
Missouri St.	90	20	12	89.3	94.6

The RPI-based first round would most likely pit Tennessee against Arkansas State, and Missouri State against Belmont, with the winners -- Tennessee and Missouri State -- facing off for the trip to the Big Apple. The Vols return over half of their minutes (57.1%) and points (51.0%)...just barely, but how challenging, despite the high percentage of returning minutes and points, would either Belmont or Arkansas State be to either the SEC or the Missouri Valley school? As for the second round game, looking just at the table above, it would seem to be at least as competitive as either the East or West Region/pod. But looks can be deceiving...

	2010 Adjusted
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
Tennessee	68.7	108.9	88.5	0.916
Arkansas St.	67.5	97.7	100.5	0.420
Belmont	70.2	101.9	97.9	0.615
Missouri St.	65.5	110.8	98.7	0.792

On paper a first round match-up of Belmont and Missouri State may be the best of the three that would be played over the two days. Both return substantial portions of their squad's minutes and points. While pace can be overblown at times, the nearly five possession difference between the Missouri State and Belmont could be trouble. If Belmont is behind, the Bruins might chafe at the Bears' more deliberate pace. Or if the Bears are beind, they may struggle to stay with the Bruins. In either case, the Vols' pace falls between the Bruins and Bears, so the Vols should have little trouble adjusting if the other team controls the pace.

North Region
Many of the details are sketchy at this point. The dates for the preliminary rounds, and for Villanova, even the site -- will this be moved to the Wells Fargo (nee Wachovia) Center downtown, or will the 'Cats host this on campus at the Pavilion? The Wells Fargo Center would make sense...

	2010 Season			2011 Returning
	RPI	W	L	Mins.	Pts.
Villanova	11	25	8	66.0	62.5
Boston University	144	21	14	43.5	50.9
George Washington	148	16	15	75.3	70.9
Marist	334	1	29	93.9	97.0

Villanova has a connection to each of the other teams in the pod. Boston U Coach Patrick Chambers was an Associate Head Coach at Villanova just two seasons ago. The Terriers were a last minute addition to the Puerto Rico Tip-Off field last November. Though BU has a lot of minutes to replace from last season's squad, I doubt the Wildcats and Terriers will be matched in the first round. That first round opponent will most likely be the Red Foxes of Marist. Head Coach Chuck Martin did stints as an assistant for Bruiser Flint at Drexel, and at St. John's under (former) Coach Norm Roberts. Marist was the destination for former Villanova center Casiem Drummond, who later moved on to Georgetown College in Division 2. While some in the 'Nova Nation may not be happy about Marist's 334 RPI, with 92% of the Red Fox 2010 minutes returning, chances are good Marist will finish with a higher RPI this season.

	2010 Adjusted
	Pace	Off.	Def.	PWP
Villanova	72.4	116.6	94.0	0.923
Boston University	71.2	104.0	97.4	0.679
George Washington	68.2	102.6	96.6	0.665
Marist	64.0	88.1	111.2	0.064

The first round match-ups here therefore, will most likely be Villanova and Marist, with George Washington, the A-10's representative in this tournament, matched with Boston University. Should seed hold, expect Villanova and GWU to face off for the second pod win. For the past three or so pre-seasons Villanova and George Washington have waived the second NCAA-sanctioned exhibition game in favor of an opportunity to conduct a closed scrimmage with each other. Coach Hobbs and Wright are extremely familiar with the other's personnel and style of play (and coaching). I suspect if the 'Cats (and Colonials) participate in a closed scrimmage this pre-season it will not be with each other.

The Semi-Finals and Beyond
I suspect, should the pod hosts' hold through the preliminary rounds, that Villanova and Tennessee will the match-up the NIT would want for the final. The semi-final then would match Villanova with either Wake Forest or UCLA, with Tennessee getting the other.

Further Reading...
The Official NIT Tip Off Site
The Tip-Off Brakets (.pdf format)
Other Early Season Invitationals with teams, dates and sites. From CBS.