Coaching Carousal Part 3 -- 'Tis the Season...

As the three weeks between Thanksgiving and Christmas Eve witness the largest single period of retail sales, so the four weekends (plus) bookmarked by the end of conference tournaments (this week) and the National Championship Game (roughly 4 weekends and a day from now) will mark the largest upswing in turnovers ("resignation", "mutual agreement", "moving on", "more time with my loved ones" fired by any other name...) of D1 coaching jobs. If various mid-winter celebrations (Kwanzaa, Hanukkah, Christmas...) are the triggers for retail sales, so "Year-end Evaluations" that inevitably follow elimination from the post season tournament pool, combined with the little covered -- but nevertheless massive -- Job Fair that permeates the Final Four Weekend, have triggered this annual rite of early spring. The SEC for the second season running kicked off the turnover with 2 mid-season turnovers. Alabama's Mark Gottfried earned the dubious distinction of being this season's first D1 coach ousted, but thoughts that the economic downturn might limit the bleeding to a few southern land grant universities with, apparently fat wallets, were refuted yesterday when Boston University's Dennis Wolff, a 15 year veteran at BU who had compiled a 247-197 career record at the New England university, was, as reported by Hoops Weiss, dismissed Tuesday. Wolff's Terrier team finished 3rd in the American East Conference this season, compiling a 17-13 record in the process.

If the cyclical nature of D1 coaching turnovers, as described by Ken Pomeroy, holds (given the SEC mid-season dismissals, I have little hope that economics will play more than a marginal role in holding down the turnover rate...), this off season should see another decline in the number of coaching changes. Small consolation to Gottfried, Felton and Wolff.

Pace Notes: Thoughts About the 2006-07 Season

Another season and another decline in the average possessions per game. In his 2005-06 season retrospective, "State of the Game", Ken Pomeroy observed that "...The dramatic slow-down during this time (the 1970's and 80's) prompted the NCAA to experiment with, and eventually add, the shot clock and three-point line. There was an initial increase in tempo in response to the shot clock, but the game has been slowing down since 1994, and reached an all-time low in 2005...". That trend continued into the 2006-07, as the year-end raw pace slowed from 67.6 to 66.9, making the year-over-year average decline another 1.1%. The season started optimistically; the average for games played through November 28 (the first week when all D1 teams played at least one game) was 69.2, well above 2006 ending pace. I had loosely tracked Ken Pomeroy's pace statistics during the 2005-06 season and realized that the average pace for all D1 members had declined by about 2% from New Year's (the start of most conference play) to the end of the season. Taking weekly snapshots of the Pomeroy's efficiency stats I was able to track the raw pace for the entire D1 season (graph below).

After starting above 69.0, the raw pace began to decline dramatically as all of the teams began their season with home games and invitationals. The pace took a dead cat bounce during the fall exam period and resumed its decline through the end of the season.

If, as Pomeroy suggested, D1's declining pace is tied to the increasing use of the 3 point shot, pace may make a larger adjustment this season as the 3 point line was moved back a foot for men's play. The question is "Will it rise?" as teams decide to take play inside rather than risk declining 3FGM percentages, or "Will it decline (again, only more drastically)?" as teams work harder (and longer...) to set up the 3 point play. Widening the lane to encourage dribble penetration and enlarging the "no charge" area under the basket might work to speed up play as well. Abolishing zone defenses, as the NBA has attempted to do for the pace three decades will most likely lead to the same Prohibition Era-style cat-and-mouse game that characterizes NBA play today. Teams disguise their match-up defensive play as referees, tired of calling the illegal defense foul that disrupts game flow, ignore all but the most blatant violators.

As I track pace again this season I will also keep in mind the season-long pattern shown in the chart above. When I plotted the average D1 pace at New Years, in late January (or early February -- about mid-season in conference play), at the end of February (the end of the regular season and conference play) and season-end (post NCAA & NIT), I noticed the same pattern in the 2005-06 (blue line in chart above) and 2006-07 seasons (the red line above). The number of possessions declined by between 1 - 2 possessions per game as the college teams moved through that portion of their season. For the 2005-06 season, the points on the trend line were 69.02-->68.32-->67.81-->67.61, while for the 2006-07 season they were 68.34-->67.43-->66.98-->66.85. Reasons for the decline include:

1. Familiarity between coaches and opposing team members translates into more strategy during play.
2. The relative importance of conference play motivates coaches to exercise greater control over each possession.
3. Shorter player rotations diminish disruptions to each teams playing rhythm.
4. Player fatigue due to the length of the season.

Coaching Carousal Part 384: Last Call?

Ball State officially ended the Ronny Thompson era when they hired Lehigh's HC Billy Taylor. Taylor compiled a 81-69 record in 5 seasons at Lehigh. He, like Thompson, had a scrape with the rules committee. In 2004-05 Lehigh forfeited 14 games due to an ineligible player. Meanwhile back at Ball State, more allegations surfaced about the Ronny Thompson regime. The NCAA will expand their investigation. IUPUI's HC Ron Hunter managed to parlay his brief status as the frontrunner for the Ball State job into a raise and contract extension at IUPUI.

Wake Forest tabbed Dino Guadio to succeed to Skip Prosser who passed away July 26. Guadio, one of the three Prosser assistants who interviewed for job, was promoted over associate head coach Jeff Battle and assistant Pat Kelsey. Wake's AD, Ron Wellman, decided early on to promote from within the program rather than conduct an open ended search. The move will no doubt help the Deacons hold onto the outstanding class of recruits that Prosser and his staff assembled for next season. Guadio had 2 previous stints as a D1 head coach. While at Army he compiled a 36-72 record in 4 seasons and Loyola of Maryland, where he compiled a 32-52 record in 3 seasons.

The East Carolina shuffle appears to be more an in house cleanup operation than a regime change. East Carolina coach Ricky Stokes (fired as head coach of Virginia Tech several years ago) was, after compiling a 14-44 record in 2 seasons as the Pirate HC, moved upstairs to Assistant AD. Interesting no? Stokes it turns out was the point guard for several Virginia teams coached by now East Carolina AD Terry Holland. Holland brought Stokes in after he became AD at East Carolina. Mack McCarthy, a former HC at Tennessee-Chattanooga and assistant under Stokes, was promoted to the vacancy the same day as Stokes was promoted.

To date (8/9/2007) 59 head coaching jobs have been vacated; 58 have been filled (Lehigh remains open due to Taylor's resignation). There are eight reasons for the vacancies created this during the season and off season...

1. The coach was fired (before his contract expired). 23 (39.0%).
2. The coach was asked to resign, usually after a program review. 8 (13.6%).
3. The coach's contract was not extended. 5 (8.5%)
4. The coach took another position within the organization (not at the coach's initiative). 2 (3.4%)
5. The coach accepted a position with another employer. These were almost always (excepting Buzz Peterson) another coaching position, either in the NBA (Reggie Theus) or another D1 school. 18 (30.5%).
6. The coach retired (Tom Davis). 1 (1.7%).
7. The coach resigned without notice (Ronny Thompson). 1 (1.7%).
8. The coach died (Skip Prosser). 1 (1.7%).

Vacancies created for any of the first four reasons were initiated by the college/university. These account for 38 (64.4%) of the vacancies. The second group of 4 reasons account for 21 (35.6%) of the vacancies. Whether the vacancy is initiated by the school or the coach was a matter of timing. I grouped the vacancies by date initiated...

• During the regular season (about 2/27)
• After the regular season and before the beginning of the NCAAs.
• During the NCAAs.
• After the tournament but before the Spring Signing period (May 15).
• After the Spring Signing period (after May 15).

As the table below illustrates, the largest number of vacancies (67.8%) were created before the National Champion was crowned.

		University Initiated				Coach Initiated
			Req.	No		Job		Vol.
Period	Totals	Fired	Resign	Contract	Trans	Offer	Retire	Resign	Died	Pct.
Season	4	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.8%
<Sunday	17	9	3	4	1	0	0	0	0	28.8%
NCAAs	19	9	3	1	0	5	1	0	0	32.2%
<Sp LOI	11	2	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	18.6%
>Sp LOI	8	1	0	0	1	4	0	1	1	13.6%
Totals	59	23	8	5	2	18	1	1	1
		39.0%	13.6%	8.5%	3.4%	30.5%	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%

Collapsing the categories (the table below) highlights the swing that took place on April 2. Explanations for the timing and dramatic NC game switch is commonsensical -- firings, requested resignations and decisions to refrain from extending the contract are made as a product of a post season program review. The decision to change coaches was no doubt considered as part of preparation for the post season interview with the head coach. By reputation the Regional Finals and Final Four second as job fairs. For the Athletic Director who is searching for a successor, the temptation to survey and interview during those weekends has to be very strong. After the National Championship game however, the intiative swings to the Head Coach.

				Percent
Period	Totals	Univ	Coach	Univ	Coach
During Regular Season	4	4	0	100.0%	0.0%
Before Selection Sunday	17	17	0	100.0%	0.0%
During NCAAs	19	13	6	68.4%	31.6%
Before Spring Signing	11	2	9	18.2%	81.8%
After Spring Signing	8	2	6	25.0%	75.0%
Totals	59	38	21
Percentage		64.4%	35.6%

The eight vacancies created after the beginning of the Spring Signing Period (roughly May 15) were largely (though not exclusively...) coach initiated. Whether by death (Prosser) or resignation (Peterson, Thompson, Taylor, etc.), it was the coach who moved on. In those cases where the school took the initiative, the successor appears to have been identified and possibly engaged before the replacement was executed (St. Louis, East Carolina). Schools after the signing date appear to be far more cautious about changing regimes.