A Look at the Legends Classic

Breaking Out the log5...
I noticed Ken Pomeroy ran a few log5 calculations for destination invitationals running this weekend. The four teams competing in the Legends Championship Bracket this weekend were not included, so I decided to run the numbers and see who is favored. Note, the log5 calculation is an exercise in conditional probability, not a Nostradamus-inpired quatrain. log5 measures probabilities of a set of outcomes relative to each other, and should not, therefore, be taken as an absolute prediction of the future...but hey, it's fun and I am going to be doing a live blog for Rush the Court, so this is a good preparation for the double header (Vanderbilt vs. North Carolina State at 6:30, followed by Texas vs. Oregon State at about 8:30) on Saturday night and the playoff round (winners vs. winners, losers vs. losers) on Monday night.

	Final	Champ
Texas	78.8	20.8
Vanderbilt	67.5	18.1
No. Carolina State	32.5	2.2
Oregon State	21.2	0.03

Though Vanderbilt is the only ranked team (#20 in the Coaches Poll) in the field, Texas, by virtue of the easier semi final opponent, gets a slight nod in the final. Counter intuitive no doubt, but with the NCAA-mandated seven game suspension of Vandy's 6-11 scoring and rebounding machine Festus Ezeli, the Long Horns might be the favored choice...on potential anyway.

How They Got Here (Secaucus, New Jersey)
Though some (mostly birds migrating North in the spring and South in the fall...) might believe the Meadowlands of New Jersey is an exotic destination, the Legends is not a "destination" tournament like the Old Spice Classic or Paradise Jam. Each team headed to the IZOD Center for Saturday's showdown hosted two teams in preliminary play. Unlike the NIT Tip-Off however, the host, who may not be a preliminary round winner, advances to the Championship Bracket in Secaucus.

Texas breezed by Boston University 82-46 on 11/13, then down Rhode Island by 10, 100-90, on 11/15. Vanderbilt lost their first preliminary round game, 58-71, to Cleveland State on 11/13, but beat Bucknell 80-68, on 11/15. North Carolina State hammered Morehead State 91-61 on 11/13, then squeaked by Princeton 61-58 on 11/14. The last team in the Championship bracket, Oregon State, barely broke a sweat disposing of Division II West Alabama, 93-60, then faced a slightly tougher test as they downed Hofstra by 10, 82-72 on 11/16.

Vanderbilt versus North Carolina State
The Commodores bring a junior and senior dominated squad to the IZOD. Even with Ezeli sidelined, the 'Dores will start five upperclassmen, starting with senior point guard Brad Tinsley and SEC scoring champion John Jenkins in the back court. Senior Jeffrey Taylor will start at the wing, while seniors (and New Jersey native) Lance Goulbourne and Steve Tchiengang will start as duel forwards. Stallings has used between 10 and 12 players in each of the Commodores' first three games, though he felt the reserves were effective only in Vandy's last game (versus Bucknell). First year (at Raleigh) coach Mark Gottfried will counter with experienced starters, CJ Leslie's NCAA-mandated suspension should be completed by the Vanderbilt game. If he does not start at the #3/#4 he will come off the bench pretty quickly. Sophomore Lorenzo Brown will start at the point with freshman CJ Williams at the #2. The front court spots will be filled by junior Scott Wood, with two of Richard Howell, Leslie, DeShawn Painter or Jordan Vendenberg, the last two considered legitimate centers. Though Gottfried emptied the bench in the Wolfpack's only blowout (a 30 point win over Morehead State), he seems more comfortable with his first eight-to-nine players.

Texas versus Oregon State
The Long Horns lost their entire starting lineup in the off season, but Coach Rick Barnes has earned his reputation as one of the Big 12's strongest recruiters. Barnes has junior J'Coven Brown, a McDonald's All American as a high schooler, available to start this season. Senior Alexis Wangmene has started twice at the $4/#5, with three of his prized freshmen, Jon Holmes, Myck Kabongo and Julien Lewis starting and giving the Horns a three guard/two forward lineup. Barnes used a nine and ten man rotation in Texas' two games, suggesting that a few more members of his seven man freshman class (Sterling Gibbs, Sheldon McClellan and Jaylen Bond) will get regular minutes for the time being. Barnes has also called senior Clint Chapman's number often. Coach Craig Robinson has settled into his starting five, starting with Jared Cunningham at the off guard and Ahmed Starks at the point. Both Cunningham and Starks have 1-2 years of experience. Juniors Joe Barton and Angus Brandt will hold down the #4/#5 spots, with sophomore Devon Collier at the #3. Kevin McShane (senior forward), Roberto Nelson (sophomore guard), Calle Barton (true freshman, guard) and Eric Moreland (red shirt freshman, forward) saw minutes in each Oregon State's games so far.

The View From Here
Expect Vandy and Texas to meet in the finals Monday, with the States, North Carolina and Oregon to meet in the consolation game. Of the underdogs, Gottfried's Wolfpack might have the better shot at an upset, as Vandy has a habit of unexpectedly freezing up on occasion. CJ Leslie might be the unknown factor Saturday, but the 'Dores are very deep and experienced, with or without Ezeli. I will be running a live blog courtside for Rush the Court, starting around 6:30 Saturday night. Drop by for a courtside perspective if you have the time.

Coaching Carousal: Part 2011-04: Effects, Hits, Misses & Numbers

Effects -- Butterfly, Ripple or Domino?
When Villanova's Assistant Coach Chris Walker accepted a similar position on Billy Gillispie's Texas Tech staff back in April (announced formally only last week) Villanova Coach Jay Wright seized the opportunity to reorganize his staff. Though the process took just under two months and affected three coaches and two positions, Coach Wright's first step, completed in just over two weeks brought Navy Head Coach Billy Lange back to the Mainline as an Associate Head Coach. Lange, in his second stint on Coach Wright's staff, has taken an increasingly well-traveled road of head coach in a non-BCS program to assistant in a BCS program, the second to do so this off season alone. Lange's exit triggered a three job shift among D1 head coaching positions Villanova (Assoc. HC) <-- (Lange) Navy (HC) <-- (DeChellis) Penn State (HC) <-- (Chambers)Boston University (HC) <-- ?. The shift was unusual for the timing, coming so late in the cycle, but even more so for the number of head coaching positions opened, initiated by a head coach-to-assistant shift. Last season the Patriot League was ranked 24th of 32 D1 conferences by by Ken Pomeroy, the level where one would expect a coach to be named from a pool of assistant/associate coaches, rather than BCS-level head coaches. The circumstances of DeChellis' situation in Happy Valley played a large role in his decision to take a pay cut and change jobs. Clearly this was not the Butterfly Effect at work. Juwan Staten was slated to transfer from Dayton to Penn State prior to DeChellis' move, but instead signed with West Virginia, is an example of the Butterfly Effect (especially if he hits a shot that eliminates Villanova from the 2013 BET for example). The quick movement diagram (above) illustrates the moves as a chain reaction that typifies the Domino Effect, but given the number of coaches associated with the Philadelphia coaching fraternity, I would also suggest there was a Ripple Effect involved. Would Pat Chambers considered a BCS-level job this late in the cycle had it been located in Washington state? Would Penn State have looked at Chambers if Happy Valley were located in upper Minnesota? The influence exerted by the six D1 coaches coaches at Philadelphia schools (Drexel, La Salle, Penn, Saint Joseph's, Temple and Villanova) extends beyond the Delaware Valley and the state of Pennsylvania (to Madison, Wisconsin actually).

Hits & Misses?
The ACC saw an unusually high (four) number of vacancies this off season, 50% of the attrition can be attributed to terminations at Georgia Tech (Paul Hewitt) and North Carolina State (Sidney Lowe). Both coaches were on the hot seat going into the 2011 season. Interestingly, feedback about Paul Hewitt's and Sidney Lowe's replacements (Brian Gregory and Mark Gottfried repsectively) is (charitably at best) mixed. By general knowledge, Georgia Tech, with a large buyout on Hewitt's contract and huge capital expenses (facilities related) looming, may have been reluctant to go after a namebrand coach. North Carolina State AD Debbie Yow apparently believed a whispering campaign limited her pool of available replacements after she fired five year veteran Sidney Lowe, making Mark Gottfried, himself fired (in mid-season no less) from his last job (Alabama), the most attractive of the available candidates. She seemed to conveniently forget that the Wolfpack faithful practically ran off Lowe's predessessor Herb Sendak, and after a very public search marked by an embarrassing series of courtships and rejections, then AD Lee Fowler settled on Sidney Lowe, an NCSU graduate who was unable to translate consistently good recruiting into an NCAA bid in any of his five seasons at State. Sendak, with less attractive recruits, managed an NCAA bid in each of his last five seasons in Raleigh. Do the numbers support or contradict media perceptions that Gregory and Gottfried were basically misses? I dusted off Dan Hanner's Average Efficiency Margin method to compare the ex-coach and his successor...

	Average Adj.
Coach/Team/Yr	Offense	Defense	Diff.
P. Hewitt, Ga Tech/2004-2011	109.1	91.4	+17.7
B. Gregory, Dayton/2004-2011	104.7	94.7	+10.0

Those seeking an explanation for Tech's selection of Gregory -- beyond expense -- cannot look to an efficiency margin better than Hewitt's. Though Dayton's ex-coach boasts a positive double digit margin through his last seven seasons, it is well off (see above) Paul Hewitt's efficiency margin (in fact Hewitt's efficiency margin was better -- by 8.4 points per 100 possessions -- than Jim Larranaga, the GMU Coach whose move to Miami created the opening at George Mason). Fans at both Georgia Tech and Dayton shared a similar view of their respective former coaches -- good recruiters who seemed to do less with more. Hopefully each will find greater acceptance (and success) at their next stop.

Though Coach Gottfried had a ten year run in Tuscaloosa, Ken Pomeroy provides data for only six of those years (2003-08). I decided to compare the last five years of Lowe's and Gottfried's tenure at their respective schools. Though Lowe never made the NCAA tournament, Gottfried did in three of his last five years at Alabama (2003 -- Elite Eight, 2004 -- Round of 32, 2005 -- first round)...

	Average Adj.
Coach/Team/Yr	Offense	Defense	Diff.
S. Lowe, NCSU/2007-11	109.7	98.1	+11.7
M. Gottfried, Alabama/2004-08	115.5	96.0	+19.5

Gottfried might be the D1 coaching equivalent of Wally Pipp. The Crimson Tide of 2007 and 2008 had slumped from the high-water mark of 2003, the circumstances of Gottfried's "resignation" and the enthrusiasm surrounding Anthony Grant's early success have certainly combined to allow the Crimson Tide faithful to quickly forget about Gottfried's accomplishments. Being the third of three schools in the Research Triangle will be a challenge, but the circumstances at North Carolina State (public institution, football-centric) are similar to those at Alabama. Gottfried should do well there.

Radford Selects Jones, Boston University is on the Clock...
Despite speculation that focused on several former head coaches, the search to replace Brad Greenburg at Radford University settled quickly on the usual suspects -- assistant coaches from higher-level conferences within the region. 27 days into the search, Athletic Director Robert Lineburg introduced Mike Jones, an assistant coach at Virginia Commonwealth University out of the Colonial Athletic Association (CAA) as Radford's sixth Division 1 men's basketball coach.

Despite assertions that Boston University's search for Chamber's replacement would only take days, the process is now two weeks old with interim head coach Brian Daly (Assistant Coach under Chambers), announced June 3, holding down the fort. The post-Chambers press announcement candidate pool was an eclectic mix of ex-head coaches (Al Skinner), high-ranking assistant/associate head coaches (Mike Jarvis II & Orlando Vandross -- both of whom deny being contacted for interviews -- along with media favorite Richard Pitino, son of Louisville head coach and former Terrier head coach, Rick Pitino) and local sports names (Walter McCarty, former Celtic & Louisville assistant coach & former BU player Scott Spinelli) among others. When BU Athletic Director Mike Lynch fired 15 year veteran Dennis Wolff in March of 2009 he hired a search firm and took just under a month (26 days) to select and deliver Pat Chambers. Lynch did not initiate the process this time, did not hire a search firm and named Daly very quickly when Chambers left. Given how late in the cycle the opening was created, I would not be surprised if Daly leads the Terriers through the next season with the interim label attached to his title. Nor would I be surprised if Lynch tabs a head coach in the next week or so. I would be surprised, given Boston University's competitive standing in the American East Conference, if Lynch names a replacement after the start of the July recruiting period.

By the Numbers...
A single vacancy has been created since the last Coaching Carousal post, a bit unusual for me to post so quickly. The Villanova connection was too tempting to pass on however. The ebb and flow to this point...

		Vacancies
Period	Date	No.	Pct.
Regular Season*	02/26/11	2	3.6%
Conf. Tourn.**	03/14/11	18	32.7%
NCAA Tourn.	04/07/11	23	41.8%
Spring Sign	05/18/11	9	16.4%
Post Spr. Sign	Today...	3	5.5%
n = 55

* Regular season ending was arbitrary; I used the start of the earliest conference tournaments to mark the transition from regular season to post season play.
** Selection Sunday, March 14 this year, marks the end of conference tournaments & the beginning of post season program evaluations.

Turnover peaked during the NCAA tournament, typical given that most vacancies are initiated by the employer and conference tournaments and the NCAAs (and NIT, CBI, CIT, etc) mark the end of the season for viturally all of the Division 1 programs. 55 vacancies mark 2011 as the third busiest since 2002. Projecting a few more openings is not unreasonable, though the vacancy will be created by exigent circumstances (coaches behaving badly for example), with the AD either conducting a very quick (days, not weeks) search or tabbing an interim. 57? 58? Stay tuned.

Coaching Carousal Part 6 -- Circle Games

Break'n All the Rules...
There was a time, before Billy Donovan won his 2nd National Championship, when a school, short of violating the Rule for Louisiana Politicians ("In bed with a dead hooker or live boy."), did not fire a coach during the season. Three SEC schools have blazed new ground (not in a good way) by firing their basketball coaches during January or February. If the losing record rational could be applied to John Brady (LSU) and Dennis Felton (Georgia), the mid-season "resignation" of Mark Gottfried seemed especially odd, given the Crimson Tide's respectable, if unexceptional, record (53-36, 2005-2008, no losing seasons) coupled with multiple season injuries to several of the program's key players. Should there be a "Gottfried Correlary" to the Louisiana Rule -- Dead hookers, live boys or former students? Or did the Crimson Tide's Athletic Department seize on Gottfried's indiscretion and play it it as a "last straw" to the unfolding text book scandal (the NCAA released it's report with penalties last month)? While 201 student-athletes in 16 different programs were (according to Alabama and the NCAA) involved, athletes from the Men's Tennis, Men's and Women's Track & Field and the Men's Football were cited for intentional misconduct, the NCAA Infractions Committee seemed especially aggrieved that
1. While Alabama appeared to have a process in place to properly monitor and verify text book distribution to the institution's student-athletes, the administration did not follow it's own procedures, nor did they recognize and react to the yellow and red flags those procedures raised. And
2. Alabama has had two prior "serious violations" since 1999. In 2002, the Crimson Tide was on probation from violations arising in 1999, and in 2009 the NCAA found that Alabama was on probation from 2002 when the text book violations occurred in 2005-07.

Tim Floyd's sudden "resignation" as UCS's head coach, coming literally 6 weeks after he bowed out of the Arizona job search was shocking -- both for his supposed rational ("loss of enthusiasm"...patently untrue -- he was pushed out by AD Mike Garrett) and the timing (Garret had to know that mid June is inconveniently late in the off season to conduct a job search). Despite allegations by former Mayo insider Louis Johnson, that Floyd paid Mayo confidant (and runner for sports agent Bill Duffy) Rodney Gillory after Gillory steered OJ Mayo to his Trojan program, Floyd did not appear to be in immediate danger of being ousted from his job. That the NCAA had decided in May to combine the investigations surrounding payments to USC football player Reggie Bush with those surrounding bballer OJ Mayo may have influenced USC AD Mike Garrett. SI writer Seth Davis recently characterized Floyd's decision to recruit a player with ties to agents as a "Faustian bargain", but he may have missed his metaphore by suggest that Floyd (and Gottfried?) were the Dr. Fausts in this story. In Goerthe's "Faust" the good doctor, in spite of having committed a small encyclopedia of sin during the course of his adult life, was upon his death, carried to heaven by angels, rather than condemned to the fire and brimstone. The terms of a bet between the Lord and Mephistopheles, it seems, relieved the doctor of any punishment for sins committed while the wager ran its course. The Dr. Faust of this tale appears to be the BCS football programs that neither institution seems willing to discipline beyond the sanctions imposed by the NCAA.

Second Time Around...
Holy Cross Head Coach Ralph Willard took a longstanding offer from mentor Rick Pitino to rejoin his staff, this time at Louisville. Willard first teamed up with Pitino in 1987, joining Pitino's staff on the New York Knicks (NBA). When Pitino left to take the reins at Kentucky Willard joined him as an Associate Head Coach before striking out on his own, first at Western Kentucky (4 seasons) and later at Pittsburgh (5 years). Willard then moved over to Holy Cross, his alma mater, where he restored some of the glory to the Crusader program during his 14 year tenure. Willard has had health problems the past few years (prostate & heart), which combined with his growing (and publicly aired) frustration with scheduling at the mid-major, provided the motivation to take the second chair with his old friend.

Buzz Peterson decided to take a second stint at Appalachian State, the D1 program where he had the greatest sustained success over the course of his 10 year career as a D1 head coach. Peterson's first turn at Appalachian State ran from 1996 to 2000, when he compiled a 79-39 record with the Mountaineers and had 3 1st place finishes in the Southern Conference. He then took over at Tulsa (2000-01) where he led the Golden Hurricanes to an NIT championship. A 4 year run at Tennessee (2001-05) was less successful -- he compiled a 61-59 record, taking the Volunteers to 2 NITs (and no NCAAs). Peterson then moved over to Coastal Carolina of the Big South Conference. After he guided the Chanticleers through 2 seasons (35-25) before becoming the Director of Player Personnel for the Charlotte Bobcats of the NBA. And now back to Appalachian State again.

By the Numbers
The economic downturn no doubt dampened the job market this off season. The turnover signals a low in the current cycle, both numeric (30) and in the vacancy rate (8.7%), the second year running when the turnovers are down. Like the previous 3 seasons, the 2009 coaching carousal followed the pattern I noted in the 2007 off season...
1. Institutions initiated well over half of the vacancies. In 2009, employers fired/reassigned/failed to extend, etc. 2/3 of the open positions, (very) slightly higher than previous off seasons. Movement by the coach accounted for the other 1/3.
2. Institutions tended to act before the National Championship game (16/20), with nearly half (9/20) occuring before Selection Sunday. New Jersey reporters rightly expressed surprise at Fairleigh Dickinson's termination of 26 year veteran coach Tom Green back on June 4th, as a termination that "late" in the off season is extremely rare. If the coach is (still) in place on the first day of the Spring Signing Period, the chances are good he will remain in place through the start of the season.
3. The NCAA Tournament is a job bazaar. Approximately half of the vacancies (16/30 -- 53%) opened during the 2009 tournament, slightly higher than 2008 (13/43 -- 46%) and 2007 (19/60 -- 47%).

Coaching Carousal Part 3 -- 'Tis the Season...

As the three weeks between Thanksgiving and Christmas Eve witness the largest single period of retail sales, so the four weekends (plus) bookmarked by the end of conference tournaments (this week) and the National Championship Game (roughly 4 weekends and a day from now) will mark the largest upswing in turnovers ("resignation", "mutual agreement", "moving on", "more time with my loved ones" fired by any other name...) of D1 coaching jobs. If various mid-winter celebrations (Kwanzaa, Hanukkah, Christmas...) are the triggers for retail sales, so "Year-end Evaluations" that inevitably follow elimination from the post season tournament pool, combined with the little covered -- but nevertheless massive -- Job Fair that permeates the Final Four Weekend, have triggered this annual rite of early spring. The SEC for the second season running kicked off the turnover with 2 mid-season turnovers. Alabama's Mark Gottfried earned the dubious distinction of being this season's first D1 coach ousted, but thoughts that the economic downturn might limit the bleeding to a few southern land grant universities with, apparently fat wallets, were refuted yesterday when Boston University's Dennis Wolff, a 15 year veteran at BU who had compiled a 247-197 career record at the New England university, was, as reported by Hoops Weiss, dismissed Tuesday. Wolff's Terrier team finished 3rd in the American East Conference this season, compiling a 17-13 record in the process.

If the cyclical nature of D1 coaching turnovers, as described by Ken Pomeroy, holds (given the SEC mid-season dismissals, I have little hope that economics will play more than a marginal role in holding down the turnover rate...), this off season should see another decline in the number of coaching changes. Small consolation to Gottfried, Felton and Wolff.

Coaching Carousal -- Another One Falls in the SEC

Mark Gottfried's sudden (and less-than-voluntary?) resignation may have initiated a general house cleaning in the SEC as Georgia's AD Damon Evans fired Bulldog head coach Dennis Felton Thursday morning, 8 hours after the Bulldogs' 26 loss to Billy Donovan's Florida team. Felton, the Dean of SEC basketball coaches, dodged the bullet last spring when Georgia unexpectedly ran the table at the SEC post season tournament and earned the conference's automatic bid to the NCAAs. A rocky 9-11 start, exacerbated by an 0-5 start to the SEC season, triggered the mid-season ouster. Interesting that the local press actually (as exemplied by Terence Moore of the Atlanta Journal and Constituion) applauded the move, rather than question the timing and example set by the AD. I guess that is the way they do things in the SEC.

Felton is the 6th SEC head coach to resign under duress or be fired outright since the Florida Gators won the National Championship in 2007. That is half of the conference's coaches. In less than three seasons. And if Pat Forde (see below) is to be believed, there may be another SEC ouster at season's end.

While ESPN's Pat Forde focused part of his latest Forde's Minutes column on nine other head coaches (four in the Big East alone...) who are under increased pressure this season, he appears to have ignored, aside from the mention of Felton and Gottfried, and a note that Auburn's (SEC also) Jeff Lebo might have problems, the significant turnover in the SEC coaching ranks.

Two early names in the mix as replacements include Minnesota's Tubby Smith (proposed by the same Terence Moore who cheered Felton's ouster -- not sure why Tubby would return to the conference, and especially to a school that fired its coach mid-season...) and Oklahoma's Jeff Capel, suggested by Hoops Weiss.

Coaching Carousal -- Early Push off in the SEC

Can the downswing in the SEC be responsible for the early start on the coachin searches? In the 2 seasons since Florida's Billy Donovan took his second consecutive NC, an SEC school has given the coaching carousal it's first big shove of the season. And true to form, this one nearly coincides with LSU's ouster of head coach John Brady last season.

Mark Gottfried, head coach of the Alabama Crimson Tide resigned this afternoon, according to official announcement, after a conference with Alabama AD Mal Moore. Assistant Coach Philip Pearson was named interim coach and is expected to finish the season. A job search will begin shortly and be conducted without news updates, according to AD Moore.

Mark 1/26/09 as the official start of this season's coaching search.