Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Providence at Seton Hall

by Ray Floriani
NEWARK, NJ - Seton Hall left little doubt from the opening tap of this one. The Pirates defeated Providence 81-71 at the Prudential Center on Sunday. The Pace and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Providence	79	90
Seton Hall	81	100

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Providence	50	32	27	24
Seton Hall	45	26	26	14

Warmups at the Rock

The field goal mark of the Friars is a bit deceptive as Seton Hall played very good defense. Providence shot 4 of 19 beyond the arc . Inside they were 21 of 35, a 60% rate. A fair percentage of those came in the stretch with the Hall holding a double digit lead and in command of the contest. Marshon Brooks, Providence’s outstanding scorer, registered 20 points. Brooks however shot 8 of 17 from the floor. Credit some good defense on the part of Jeff Robinson for that.

The Hall ‘D’ (some pressure, some man and zone in half court) was rooted in PC’s 24% turnover rate as the Pirates forced 19 turnovers. Brooks alone committed 9 of them. “Turnovers were definitely our downfall,” Providence coach Keno Davis said. “Credit Seton Hall’s defense for that.” Davis also felt the Hall defense prevented his club from getting any offensive continuity in half court.

Pirates received a number of contributions in this victory. Herb Pope was a force inside with a game high 23 points, 11 rebounds in 31 minutes. It’s safe to say the junior forward is in full playing shape.

Robinson was effective inside, out and on the break. He posted 20 points 6 boards. Jeremy Hazell gave a solid 10 point 6 assist effort. The senior guard constantly looked to feed teammates often passing up a shot in the process. Jordan Theodore gave a respectable 11 point, 4 assist outing.

Seton Hall lost several games earlier in the season because of the inability to put together a 40 minute effort. That was not the case today. Some late game Providence pressure got the margin to nine but the Hall regrouped to seal the verdict.

A young team, Providence received fine performances from two talented sophomores. Center Bilal Dixon, a Jersey City native, had a 17 point, 10 rebound day. Vincent Council, had a twenty point, five assist showing at the guard spot.

PC coach Keno Davis

Numbers
Providence is 13-9 (2-7 Big East). Seton Hall improves to 10-12 (4-6). Providence host South Florida Wednesday at the ‘Dunk’. Friars defeated Louisville and Villanova in their last two games at their home facility. Pirates visit West Virginia on Wednesday a place coach Kevin Willard ‘fondly’ remembers from his playing days at Pitt and the traditional ‘backyard brawl’. “They guy (Mountaineer mascot) with the rifle drives me crazy,” Willard said. Actually, the Mountaineer defense is of paramount concern. “Coach Bob Huggins gets his teams to defend as well as anyone in the country,” Willard said. Regardless, the Hall will journey to Morgantown with a better mindset than a week or two ago. “Winning is great,” Willard said, “it’s a good feeling.”

About an hour after the game
a quiet street outside the Rock

2010-11 Preview -- Providence Friars

Too Busy for the Details?
Can Coach Davis stabilize the program after the Friars' disappointing 2010 campaign and disastrous off season? After climbing to a 10-8 record and an NIT bid in his 2009 inaugural campaign, Coach Davis launched a rebuilding project in 2010 and saw the squad stumble to a 4-14 conference record that included a 10 game losing streak to close out the season. The off season brought not only the anticipated graduations, but a wave of transfers, staff changes and off court turmoil of the kind that plagued the program in Coach Welsh's tenure, leaving fans less optimistic about the 2011 campaign. The Joseph Young recruiting stand-off not only adds another swing-and-miss on the recruiting trail (and a cautionary note to PC's future targets), but makes Providence look petty in the process. A no-win from the moment the young man decided to decommit, the school should have cut their losses early and moved on. The Friars are due for another rough year, how rough? Freshman Bryce Cotton's dunk show notwithstanding, very rough...Prognosis -- A 4th quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance

	Returning...
	2011	2010	2009
%Min	46.1	36.0	80.2
%Pts	35.0	52.5	78.0
%FGM	45.2	33.3	83.8
%3FGM	33.7	54.2	76.8
%OReb	45.7	23.0	81.7
%DReb	44.9	25.4	87.4
%TReb	45.2	24.6	85.4

The Friars will return more minutes (but fewer points -- note the %3FGM from 2010, that's why the Friars did not see the significant drop in returning points scored in 2010) and rebounds than 2010, but the steep loss of points should be troubling. Where will the scoring come from in 2011?

	According to Pomeroy...
	2009-10		2008-09		2007-08
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Overall DRtg	104.8	237	99.3	131	97.1	95
Overall DR%	63.4	309	63.5	302	63.9	296
Overall Def 2FGM%	52.2	327	50.1	253	49.4	204
Opp 3FGA%	22.5	315	28.2	139	27.4	231
Eff. Height	-2.6	318	1.4	89	1.9	66

The Friars' Defensive rating, not good in Tim Welsh's last season (2008) has continued to decline steadily over Coach Davis' two seasons. Defensive rebounding, combined with poor two point shot defense points to problems in the low post. The Friars' vulnerability was not a secret. A check of opponents' three point attempt percentage suggests Providence's opponents understood their scoring opportunities were more promising inside than outside. A quick look at effective height confirms Providence has been getting "shorter" over time. One would expect beefing up Providence's front court presence would have to be a recruiting priority for the Friar staff. Losing French recruit Alex Gavrilovic, a 6-10 235 pound bfc to academics was a blow.

	For the Record...
	2009-10			2008-09			2007-08
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	12	19	0.387	19	14	0.576	15	16	0.484
Big East	4	14	0.222	10	8	0.556	6	12	0.333
Post Season?	BET Rnd #1			NIT Rnd #1			BET Rnd #1

The Friars' Nucleus
Coach Keno Davis welcomes more returning minutes than last season, but he still has a lot of gaps to fill. Council, Brooks and Dixon all logged better than 60% of the minutes at their positions, but a quick look at the entire cohort and, Dixon aside, none is taller than 6-5. And that can be trouble for the Friars, not a defensive dynamo last season. The five players listed below logged at least 10% of the minutes at a position last season, add Chris Carter and fifth year Ray Hall (two deep bench players last season), the only other veterans from 2010 returning, and (red shirt Kadeem Batts aside) Providence will build around a nucleus of six scholarship players. Which will probably make them the least experienced squad in the conference next season.

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	OR%	PPWS	FTR%
Vincent Council	68.8	106.6	21.5	17.4	44.4	5.2	1.01	53.8
Marshon Brooks	66.2	113.9	22.8	25.9	53.1	6.5	1.10	23.1
Bilal Dixon	61.4	107.4	16.9	15.5	52.5	11.9	1.07	40.0
Duke Mondy	33.7	100.2	14.5	15.7	42.8	4.2	0.89	13.5

Council, a Big East All-Rookie Teamer last season, will most likely take the point, with senior Marshon Brooks on the wing. Bilal Dixon, listed at 6-9 and 245 pounds on the Friars' web site will man the low post. 6-2 guard Duke Mondy will be part of the rotation. The last two positions will have to be filled by freshmen.

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On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Vincent Council	68.8	8.2	26.8	21.3	0.4	2.3
Marshon Brooks	66.2	9.8	10.1	14.9	1.7	2.7
Bilal Dixon	61.4	16.7	4.8	18.3	6.9	2.0
Duke Mondy	33.7	11.5	13.4	19.4	0.6	4.3

Significant Additions
Three of the five incoming freshmen are over 6-5, but only one, 6-7 Ron Giplaye, weighs more than 225 pounds, and none is listed as a "center", which leaves the low post duties to Bilal Dixon and red shirt freshman Kadeem Batts, a 6-9, 250 pound forward (and maybe senior Ray Hall?). Of the entering freshmen, Gerard Coleman, a 6-4 170 pound off guard is the most highly regarded. Coleman, a gradauate of Tilton School in New Hampshire, is a scorer who can hit the lane or step back and drop a mid-range jumper. He will see wing minutes pretty early, but may need to hit the weight room (and cafeteria) to fill out a bit. 5-10 point guard Dre Evans will spell Council at the point, but probably not much more this season. A very late and under-the-radar point guard out of Palo Verde HS in Tuscon, Arizona however is the one who has tongues wagging after his Midnight Madness dunking exhibition. 6-0 175 pound Bryce Cotton was a very late July pickup for the Friars, the kind of late recruiting season reach (necessitated by the Joseph Young fiasco?) which, if it pays off, will add to Providence's reputation as a program with a very good eye for diamond in the rough recruits. Of the two wing/forwards Coach Davis will welcome to Providence this fall, the more highly regarded is 6-8, 205 pound Brice Kofane, a native of Cameroon who finished at the Miller School, and turned a few heads on the AAU circuit in 2009. The "need" position at the #4, will probably see undersized Ron Giplaye, a 6-6, 230 pound forward out of Notre Dame Prep, log a few minutes this season. A handful of others, Mike Murray (guard, Troy, NY), Xavier Davis (guard, Smithfield, RI) and Lee Goldsbrough (forward, Manchester, England) will round out the roster.

Alexandre Gavrilovic, a 6-9 225 pound French import who schooled at the IMG Academy in Florida last season will be the one who got away. Gavrilovic dazzled recruiters in the spring evaluation period and signed with Providence (to much applause) in May. While very much the kind of big Coach Davis is looking for, grade conversion issues with the NCAA Clearinghouse will sideline him for 2011. Back in France in late August, it was not clear Gavrilovic would enroll in the fall.

Explode If...
1. Council, Brooks and Dixon have breakout seasons.
2. The freshman Ron Gilplaye proves to be another DaJuan Blair, only better.
The Friars will have a very rough road to travel even if Council and Brooks have very good, but not breakout-level seasons.

Implode If...
1. The freshmen and seniors become discouraged. The squad faded badly at the end of the 2010 season and was then rocked by several embarrassing developments in the off season. News from the staff (well-regarded recruiter Pat Skerry moved over to Jamie Dixon's staff at Pittsburgh) and recruiting fronts was discouraging, so the team will need some good bounces early to keep their spirits up.
2. More off the court developments distract the squad.

One of the advantages of a young squad is that they often don't know enough about the conference and schools to be intimidated. Young players do, however, become discouraged with extended losing streaks. Should the conference schedule put these player onto a run of three or four very difficult games in a row, they could become discouraged. Coming early in the conference season, could (dis)color the entire season for them.

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
The early season features a mix of the traditional regional rivals, Brown, Boston College and Rhode Island to go with a trip to Cancun (La Salle and either Missouri or Wyoming), a middling SEC opponent (Alabama) and the usual cupcakes. La Salle should be the first "test", as the Explorers are expected to finish anywhere from #7 to #13 in the A-10 Conference. Dr. Giannini's squad features some length in A-10 Rookie of the Year Arec Murray and experience on the wings and back court. The Friars should take this game, so a loss would be a bad sign. Going 2-0 in Cancun (there are two preliminary round games which Providence should take easily) would be a good sign, as 0-2 would be troubling. The eight days running from the first Saturday in December (12/4) to the second Saturday in December (12/11) will feature four games, three against challenging opponents and one taken on the road. The kick off opponent will be Rhode Island, in something of a rebuilding year themselves. The Rams do feature Delroy James, a well-regarded forward who will team with Will Martel and should clog the lane and dominate the boards. A quick trip to Boston to play the BC Eagles, then back to Providence and a match with Alabama, a team expected to finish in the middle of the SEC's weaker West Division to serve as the closing bookend. The Tide will feature another long low post player, JaMychal Green, who the Friars will struggle to counter. Trevor Releford will man the point; Providence will counter with Bryce Cotton and home court advantage. If the Friars are on a run they might go 3-1 or better through that stretch, but anything south of 2-2 would set a down mood to close out the out of conference (OOC) portion of their schedule.

The Big East schedule-maker dealt the Friars three mirror opponents who, like Providence, have their own demons to conquor. USF, Louisville and Rutgers all (like Providence) hav lost headlining players. For USF the depletion is pretty severe, but like Alabama and (maybe more on target) La Salle, the Bulls have a good front court presence that the Friars may be hard pressed to counter. If avoiding last place is the objective, the Friar staff will have to find at least four-to-six wins, and two, maybe three can come from the mirrors. Providence will find out early, as they go on the road to face Rutgers and South Florida as part of a three game swing in the second week of January. West Virginia is the sandwich filling, so taking one of the three games would be good news, and most likely break the anticipated three game losing streak that will most likely open the season. Should they return to Friar Town 0-6, they would be in serious danger of going winless in January and through the first half of their conference schedule. Of the three games left to close out January, a young Louisville squad may be the most vulnerable team, especially given the Cardinals are young and visiting. The back end of the conference schedle holds some promise, as the Friars will host South Florida, DePaul, Cincinnati and Rutgers, all winnable (on paper) games. The question is whether Coach Davis can keep his team engaged through the very rough run in the first half of the conference. Two or three conference wins going into February would do the trick and keep the Friars out of last place in the bargain.

Departures -- Providence Thru South Florida

The Clearing Fog...Part 3 of 4
Attrition through the first eight (alphabetically speaking) teams was primarily graduation/end of eligibility. If Lance Stephenson, Greg Monroe and Samardo Samuels left early for the NBA, Stanley Robinson & Jerome Dyson, Edgar Sosa, Luke Harangody and Lazar Hayward finished out their college eligibility and helped their teams earn NCAA invitations. The teams in this, the third (alphabetically speaking) share a common thread of loss through transfer, draft and dismissal.

Providence

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Sharaud Curry	SR	G	Grad
Ray Hall	SR	C	Grad
Johnnie Lacy	FR	G	Transf
Brian McKenzie	SR	G	Grad
Russ Permenter	JR	F	Transf
Jamine Peterson	JR	F	Dismsd
James Still	FR	F	Suspd

The Friars, without the inside presence provided by the Class of 2009, struggled to a 12-19 (4-14) record last season. Coach Davis sacrificed scouting and preparation time for teaching fundamentals and installing his system. Ray Hall, Brian McKenzie and Sharaud Curry's departures were known (and no doubt planned for), but losing two transfers who each spent a single season in the program, given they were Davis' recruits, is troubling. It is one thing to clean out your predessors' recruits, quite another to see players you invested time and effort to recruit to the school and program, leave so quickly. Lacy and Still were arrested after allegedly assaulting another Providence student in early April. Lacy, who had previously announced his intent to transfer, was, along with power forward James Still, suspended pending the school's investigation. Still's status remains "suspended" for the time being. Jamine Peterson was dismissed last week after an undisclosed violation of team rules. Greedy's departure, unanticipated, was painful given his emergence last season as the team's leading scorer and rebounder. Coming on the heals of the April incident are making Davis' early years reminiscent of his predessor's first years.

Rutgers

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Patrick Jackson	SO	F	Transf
Hamady Ndiaye	SR	C	Grad
Mike Rosario	SO	G	Transf

The Fred Hill Experiment in Piscataway is over. His departure was not enough to deter all-purpose scorer Mike Rosario from transferring to Florida where he will sit next season before resuming play in 2012. Robert Morris head coach Mike Rice has stepped in and assembled a staff for next season. Rice has picked up a few recruits in the last two weeks and has, in the long run, a good opportunity to build a program at Rutgers. But in the short run, the Scarlet Knights will be hard pressed to replace N'Diaye and Rosario.

Seton Hall

Player	Class	Pos	Status
John Garcia	5 SR	F/C	Grad

The Pirate list is dominated by the names not present, rather than John Garcia, a good, but often injured center, whose eligibility ran out last season. Head Coach Bobby Gonzalez will not be back. He was fired following the Pirates' first round loss to Texas Tech in the NIT. Iona Head Coach Kevin Willard hired in early April, has a staff in place and several recruits in the fold already. After a brief flirtation with the NBA draft, prolific scorer Jeremy Hazell and mobile forward Jeff Robinson decided to give the South Orange school another season. Herb Pope, a talented if erratic, #4 continues to rehabilitate from a collapse (and subsequent hospitalization) during a pre-draft workout. He too pulled his name from the draft pool and will, pending a recovery, return to the Hall next fall.

South Florida

Player	Class	Pos	Status
Chris Howard	SR	G	Grad
Dominique Jones	JR	G	NBA-In
Ryan Kardok	SR	G	Grad
Mike Mercer	SR	G	Grad
Alex Rivas	SR	C	Grad

Jones, co-winner of the Big East Rookie of the Year in 2008 and named to the Big East All First Team last March, will be missed. Chris Howard, once he was healthy, started for four seasons, dishing 485 (or so) assists over his career. He averaged 10.3 points per game in 35.8 minutes in his senior season. Mike Mercer, a Georgia transfer played a single season for the Bulls (plus four games in 2009 before he was injured), logging 944 minutes in 33 games. Advertised as a prolific scorer, he never found the groove with the Tampa school, averaging 9.2 points per game while hitting 20% of his 3 point attempts. Alex Rivas, a JUCO with two years of eligibility, was a fixture in the rotation who provided rebounding and depth.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: At the Big East Day 1

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY - The first round of the Big East tournament concluded with three top seeds advancing. The only upset was St. John’s over UCONN in a surprisingly lopsided contest. The scores:

Team	Score		Team	Score
South Florida	58		DePaul	49
St. John’s	73		UConn	51
Seton Hall	109		Providence	106
Cincinnati	69		Rutgers	68

The game of the night. An easy one Seton Hall’s 109-106 win over Providence. And we did not forget the ’OT’, this was a regulation game. The numbers in an 88 possession ’track meet’.

			FTM
	ORtg	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Seton Hall	124	58	46	33	14
Providence	121	51	33	47	16

The Hall led by 29 (76-47) with just over thirteen and a half minutes to play. Providence coach Keno Davis simply implored his team to plat hard to the end. Once the deficit was a manageable 12-14 the Friars used a press that forced a few turnovers. A few threes went down. The Friars hit the offensive glass with a vengeance. In the final minutes it was a two possession game.

Seton Hall had a high free throw rate but did miss 14 from the line (31-45). Jeff Robinson missed a pair with seven seconds to go. The Friars had a great look from three but Duke Mondy missed and Eugene Harvey grabbed the miss as time expired.

Sophomore forward Jamine Peterson was outstanding for the Friars. He led all scorers with 38 points, added 16 rebounds and had 4 assists. Peterson logged 39 minutes and had 10 offensive boards, many of them during the Friar’s late game surge. Bilal Dixon, another sophomore forward, added 16 points , 12 boards for Providence.

Both teams placed five players in double figures. Herb Pope led the Hall with 27 points, 11 boards while Jordan Theodore had an excellent 21 point 6 assist night.

Turnover rate figures were very good for both teams given the rapid rate of the game. Several of Seton Hall’s dozen TOs were crucial as they came when Providence made that huge run. Friars also owned a 23-12 offensive board advantage as exemplified by the Offensive Rebound (OR%) percentage.

While the game was not the equal of last year’s 6 OT classic it will go down as one of the most memorable in Big East Tournament lore. It is the first time both teams cracked the century mark in regulation.

Providence finished 12-19 while the Hall improved to 19-11.

“It was kind of two different games. We got out and played great…with the three point line and 35 second shot clock the game is never safe today. The game is never over until that clock runs down.” - Seton Hall coach Bobby Gonzalez

“The last month we played a stretch of top ten and bubble teams. I am pleased though with the progress and improvement of our young players. We have a good nucleus here. “ - Providence coach Keno Davis

Seton Hall cheerleaders
can breathe easier and smile after the final buzzer sounded

Providence Post Game: Technicals, Part 3

We Got Tangled Up...
There are three types of technicals...
1. Smart Technicals -- The coach wants to communicate with an official (or his team), and normal channels, already used, have not worked. A month ago in Louisville Coach Wright was angry his team was on the short end of a number of calls. A well-timed (if apparently spontaneous) outburst directed at an official seemed to get everyone's attention. The dynamic changed after that call. The calls tended to "even out", and the low post play tended to get fewer whistles.
2. Failed Technicals -- When a coach rides an official into calling a technical he (or she) is taking a calculated gamble. The upside is that it can change the dynamic of the game. That is, it can change the way the officials interact with the two teams and call the game. It can change the intensity with which the coach's team plays the game (and approaches their opponent). The immediate risk is the prospect of giving away up to two points on the current possession, and immediate possession of the ball. That can be tricky, because the opponent might score between zero (at the best) and four points (at worst) in that conceded possession. And a change in the dynamic (if any change in fact comes to pass) may be for the worse. If the gamble pays off, the coach is a genius -- see Smart Technicals above. And if the "T" has no effect, or heaven-forbid, a negative effect, it has to go down as a failed gamble. In the 2/06 Georgetown game, the technical called on Coach Wright at 7:07 of the first half was the tenth foul called on Villanova to that point. Georgetown had picked up three fouls. Through the rest of the half, the Hoyas picked up seven more fouls to Villanova's five. But Coach Wright's gamble backfired as the Wildcats, down by nine at the time of the "T", ceded another 10 points to Georgetown, and went to the locker room down 19 at the half.
3. Knucklehead Technicals -- Head coaches are not the only ones who draw technicals. An assistant coach or two have been known to draw the ire of an official, and a technical to boot. This season a student manager was identified as the culprit in an incident. No surprise he was let go the next day (justly or unjustly...). And of course, players have also drawn technicals. The Villanova-Providence actually saw two players, both seniors, draw technicals. Unusual in that that each drew his respective technical in two separate incidents that occurred in different halves. Normally two players will exchange words, and engage in some shoving. While not serious enough for an ejection (which leads to an inevitable suspension...), the game referees will assess a technical to each player, thereby negating any advantage one or the other team may draw from the incident. The first half technical was assessed against Reggie Redding, a senior suspended for the fall semester during the summer of 2009. Redding has returned, but has yet to round into the form that had Villanova fans excited last spring. It was a contest rebound after a Vincent Council miss. Council got the rebound (and I thought a foul, announced by the PA at the time, but not recorded in the Play-by-Play). Redding raised his arms (shoving, not punching), and the referee put Council on the line to shoot and then take the ball out of bounds. A tightly contest game, going nip and tuck through 31 ½ minutes. Both sides probing for an edge, any advantage that will help them put the other side behind them and keep them down. And then senior Sharaud Curry snapped. He was called for his fourth foul, the second foul in just over a minute, for a block on a Scottie Reynolds drive. Looking up at the official, Curry lost it, snapping "What foul?" at the official as he raised his arms in a shrugging gesture. That was, apparently, enough for that official, at that point in the game. The technical became Curry's fifth, and the senior watched the last eight minutes from the Providence bench.

The Official website has an AP wire story, some post game notes and the box score. The breakdown by halves...

Opponent	Providence
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	44.5	36.5	81.0
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	89.9	142.5	113.6		78.7	126.0	100.0
eFG%	52.9	51.5	52.2		41.1	50.0	46.0
TORate	27.0	8.2	18.5		22.5	16.4	19.8
OR%	23.1	46.4	39.0		15.0	39.1	27.9
FTA/FGA	17.1	66.7	41.2		53.6	52.9	53.2
FTM/FGA	8.6	54.5	30.9		42.9	35.3	38.7
ARate	68.8	43.8	56.3		88.9	46.7	62.5
Blk%	8.6	3.0	5.9		10.7	8.8	9.7
Stl%	12.8	6.0	10.0		14.2	5.1	9.8
PPWS	1.06	1.20	1.13		1.00	1.08	1.04
2FG%	44.0	60.9	52.1		26.7	50.0	40.5
3FG%	50.0	20.0	35.0		38.5	33.3	36.0
FT%	50.0	81.8	75.0		80.0	66.7	72.7
%2FG	55.0	53.8	54.3		22.9	47.8	37.0
%3FG	37.5	11.5	22.8		42.9	26.1	33.3
%FT	7.5	34.6	22.8		34.3	26.1	29.6

Half-time Adjustments
Given both teams are known more for offense than defense (this season anyway) and for high possession games, I thought the pace would be well into the 40s by half-time, and the score somewhere in the mid-40 to low-50s. I was half right, as the pace was a scorching 44.5 possessions. That works out to between 88 and 89 possessions over the course of the game. The points -- Villanova had 40 and Providence was just five points off that mark at 35, came from volumn (of possessions), not from offensive efficiency. Check the table above for each team (under first half). Neither team broke 100 for efficiency (points per 100 possessions). Villanova checked in with an offfensive rating of 89.9 (or about 0.9 points per possession) while Providence was an even less impressive 78.7 (or about 0.79 points per possession). For the Wildcats, the problem was not getting their shots to drop, a 52.9% eFG% is not bad at all, the problem was getting the shot off. Or a second chance if the first FGA missed. Villanova lost over 1 in 4 possessions in the first half and rebounded only (about) one in five misses, not good numbers. The Friars shot poorly, plain and simple.

Notes & Observations
1. The Coreys and Reynolds became the focal point for the offense. In the past seven games Fisher and Reynolds have either "tied" each other (four times) or come within a point (once) in five of those games. Saturday the number was 22, and both players hit that mark, Fisher in 33 minutes, Reynolds in 27 minutes. Stokes took as large a role as the other two, but had did not convert with the same efficiency as Reynolds and Fisher (31.8% eFG% vs 53.6% and 66.7%).
2. Antonio Pena logged his 6th double-double of the season, his first in February and the first since Notre Dame.
3. Isaiah Armwood had the most promising outing of the freshmen. He scored five points on 1-2 (0-0, 1-2) and 3-4 shooting. His points were matched by his rebounding and assists; he had five (1-4-5) rebounds and an assist in 15 minutes of play.
4. The staff played 11 players, but kept the starters in for 70.6% of the time, the largest slice allocated to the starting five since the Maryland game in early December. The starting five, Reynolds, Fisher, Redding, Pena and Stokes, is still in place. The starting five has remained the same since Delaware.

Ref Notes
James Breeding, Ed Hightower and Doug Shows manned the crew. The crew called 48 total fouls on both sides, two more than the Villanova-West Virginia game, and nine more than Seton Hall, the last home game. 48 fouls is within the expected range, as were the number of free throws taken by both teams. This was Hightower's and Shows' first Villanova game this season, Breeding (3-0) officiated two earlier games.

Live Blogging
Doing my fourth Villanova live blog this season, I made a point of getting to the Wach early and settling into press row. Having an episode in the Georgetown game with the Wachovia's WIFI facilities, I wanted to make sure everything would be in place. My laptop froze (of course) five minutes before tip off, a problem I did not get worked out for about 15 minutes. That hurtle taken, I found the "normal" ebb and flow of the WIFI signal was less disruptive than in the earlier game. The staff provided real time stats on press row, an invaluable resource for this blogger. I will host Rush the Court's live blog from the UConn game on Monday night. After you have settled into your favorite message board game thread, be sure to open another tab and come over to Rush the Court.

Preview 2009-10 -- Providence Friars

Too Busy for the Details?
The Class of 2009 made the NIT twice during it's time in Friartown, disappointing when compared to the promise they offered in their debut back in 2006. With their loss in the 1st round of the NIT last March they passed into the record books, lasting a season longer than the coach who recruited them. They leave behind a new coach, and their point guard, a player around whom Keno Davis can begin the rebuilding process. Next season may be a bit tough for the Friar fans to watch, but at least they go in with no illusions. Prognosis -- A 4th quartile finish.

3 Years At a Glance
The Class of 2009 brought Providence most of their starting lineup, scorers in the front court (Geoff McDermott) and the back court (Weymini Efejuku) and rebounders (McDermott & Jon Kale). The Class of 2009 made an impact with their presence. And in 2010 the impact will come from their absence.

	Returning...
	2010	2009	2008
%Min	36.0	80.2	66.2
%Pts	34.4	82.6	57.1
%FGM	33.3	83.8	54.6
%3FGM	54.2	76.8	71.1
%OReb	23.0	81.7	63.1
%DReb	25.4	87.4	66.4
%TReb	24.6	85.4	65.3

Sharaud Curry's red shirt in 2008 may have snuffed Tim Welsh's lasts hopes for a longer coaching tenure, but it may salvage a modicom of Friar self respect in 2010. The high percentage of returning 3s reflects the return of Providence's back court and wing starters. The big vacancies in 2010, and hence the opportunities, will come in the front court (notice the very low percentage of returning rebounds?).

	According to Pomeroy...
	2008-09		2007-08		2006-07
	#	Rank	#	Rank	#	Rank
Overall ORtg	110.5	52	110.4	60	112.2	58
Overall DRtg	99.3	131	97.1	95	96.9	90
Big East ORtg	106.2	9	102.7	11	102.2	7
Big East DRtg	108.6	14	108.6	13	100.5	10
Four Factors -- Overall
All Off. eFG%	50.6	104	51.5	106	53.7	39
All Off. TOv%	19.7	128	20.8	171	23.6	283
All Off. OReb%	36.3	59	36.0	62	41.3	5
All Off. FTA/FGA	39.5	87	32.3	267	34.5	208
All Def. eFG%	50.5	235	50.3	189	49.2	109
All Def. TOv%	20.1	181	21.9	117	20.0	223
All Def. OReb%	36.5	302	36.1	296	33.2	152
All Def. FTA/FGA	29.1	24	37.1	181	33.4	101
Four Factors -- Big East
BE Off. eFG%	52.2	5	51.4	5	51.6	3
BE Off. TOv%	19.3	11	20.8	11	23.4	15
BE Off. OReb%	33.6	11	32.2	10	38.2	4
BE Off. FTA/FGA	41.2	4	32.2	13	23.5	10
BE Def. eFG%	51.0	12	49.2	8	48.6	9
BE Def. TOv%	18.2	10	19.8	7	18.2	12
BE Def. OReb%	38.0	14	38.9	16	32.6	10
BE Def. FTA/FGA	28.6	3	40.5	11	32.6	10
Miscellaneious
All Gms Cons	21.4	224	21.6	216	21.8	222
All Gms Luck	+.023	80	-.036	248	-.033	229

Davis' 2009 squad, largely the same squad that took the court for the 2008 season (absent Dwain Williams, an outbound transfer and Greedy Peterson, a red shirt) nevertheless managed to improve their shooting and turnover percentage. The 2010 squad will feature many new faces in the frontcourt -- rebounding trends (largely unchanged over the past 2 seasons) are therefore, not predictive for 2010.

	For the Record...
	2008-09			2007-08			2006-07
	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.	W	L	Pct.
Overall	19	14	0.576	15	16	0.484	18	13	0.581
Big East	10	8	0.556	6	12	0.333	8	8	0.500
Post Season?	NIT/Rnd 1			BET/Rnd 1			NIT/Rnd 1

Davis was able to improve the Friar's won/loss record, using the same personnel as the Tim Welsh teams of 2007 and 2008 (with the return of Sharaud Curry), should be taken as a good sign. The Friar teams of 2010 and beyond should more closely reflect Coach Davis' style of play and philosophy of the game.

The Friar's Nucleus
With the graduation of the Class of 2009, Coach Davis has a rebuilding job in 2010. He does however, have a few Tim Welsh holdovers to build around...

On Offense
Player	Min%	Ortg	Poss%	Shot%	eFG%	PPWS	OR%	FTR%
Curry	79.2	111.9	18.4	18.7	50.8	1.12	1.2	32.6
Brooks	52.5	107.9	22.9	26.4	50.9	1.07	7.0	28.3
McKenzie	47.4	88.6	15.8	17.1	39.6	0.85	5.1	21.5

Brooks was a mainstay ("Major Contributor") in the Friar offense in 2009, chances his role will expand are slim; Curry by his numbers however, shows the potential to take on more, and assuming he will be 100% for 2010, will most likely take more shots and possessions. McKenzie took a step back last season but, finding himself at the top of the depth chart on the wing, ought to buy him some long looks from the staff. He has "extended range" on his 3s, a skill valued by Coach Davis.

On Defense
Player	Min%	DR%	Ast%	TO%	Stl%	Blk%
Sharaud Curry	79.2	5.4	23.4	19.4	0.0	1.8
Marshon Brooks	52.5	10.9	12.5	15.0	3.1	2.6
Brian McKenzie	47.4	10.4	9.6	21.4	0.5	1.7

Significant Additions
The Friars may need name tags for the first few team practices. Coach Davis will blend three red shirts, freshman Bilal Dixon, a 6-8, 228 lbs forward out of Queen of Peace HS in New York City, junior Jamine Peterson, a 6-6 225 lbs forward and junior 6-11 265 lbs center Ray Hall, with seven newcomers, that number two JUCOs and five true freshmen. Peterson and Dixon will be crucial, as the Friars have a huge need for front court players. Peterson has a #3's body but a #4's game and mentality. Under the right circumstances Peterson may develop a productive role with the Friars next season.

Front court JUCOs Russ Permenter, a 6-7 225lbs #4 out of Temple College TX and an undersized, (6-5 200 lbs) #4, Kyle Wright out of Monroe CC in New York will see playing time early and often in the season. Of the true freshmen, 6-2 pg Vincent Council, a 5th year prep student out of the Patterson HS in North Carolina is held in the high regard by scouting services, as is 5-11 160 pound point guard Johnnie Lacy, a 5th year prep out of Notre Dame Prep in Massachussetts. Together Lacy and Council will no doubt provide good back up for Curry, and log some minutes in the off guard spot. The cohort's two front court players, Kadeem Batts, a 6-7 215 lbs #4 and James Still, a 6-8 205 lbs #5 seem undersized for the Big East. Given Providence's need and Davis' offensive philosophy and background (Drake out of the Missouri Valley Conference), it would not be surprising to see both used.


Explode If...
1. Ok, maybe not explode, but if Curry, McKenzie and Brooks can improve their outside shooting, they will definitely divert defensive attention from their less experienced under class teammates. Those three took a collective 49.7% of their FGAs from beyond the arc, but managed only a disappointing 33.2% conversion rate. These three also did not get to the line much -- only 18.3% of their points came at the charity stripe. These guys have the talent, and an experienced pg to set the table. Davis has to find some plays to give them good looks.
2. The front court gels. Really, really well.

Implode If...
A head coach (in his third year as a DI head coach no less) heads into his second Big East season with a squad that has 3 players (all new or back from a red shirt) 6-9 or taller, looking to his 4 Big East veteran players (all back court/wings) around which he will build his second team. Not a pretty picture. What defense can the Friars install that will divert attention away from their young low post presence?

Crucial Run/Bellweather Games
Providence will open the season with three games in the World Vision Invitational, hosting DI newbie Bryant University, Patriot League mainstay Bucknell and Mercer out of the The Friars have been faithful keepers of the flame for New England basketball, and will continue their local rivalries with Boston College, Brown and Rhode Island. Look for how the Friars handle those games, as Boston College is rebuilding, the Rams return a veteran squad (about 2/3 of the minutes from their 2009 squad -- Jimmy Baron the big loss) and the Bears, like the Friars, will have a lot of new faces to work into their rotation. 3-0 against the locals would be very good news. Providence will travel to Alabama in late November to face a rebuilding (under new coach Anthony Grant) Crimson Tide squad and down to Washington DC in December to face the A10's George Washington. Both games, against less-than-ready competition should provide road experience the Friars can use as they open the Big East season with two road games.

The Notre Dame stop on their opening road trip should be informative for both the Friars and Fighting Irish. Both teams are replacing important members of their respective squads (though for Notre Dame, the task appears a bit less daunting). The second stop, at St. John's, however, may say more about Johnnies' prospects than the Friars. St. John's points to 2010 as the season they move up in the conference, and a loss to the Friars would throw an early damper on the Storm's expectations. For the Friars however, a win in the Big Apple would be an unexpected lift. The four game run from January 9th to January 23rd -- a pair of home bookends (versus Rutgers and South Florida) that enclose a midwinter Midwestern road trip to Marquette and DePaul -- will tell us quite a bit about the Friar's prospects even as it provides a hint or two on how the conference's 4th quartile will sort out. Should the Friars run the table they will most likely finish with a 12th or 13th seed to the Big East Tournament, as they have another home game in which they should be favored (and a road game at South Florida). And a 6 win conference season, with a squad that has 3 players who measure 6-9 or taller (6-11 junior redshirt Ray Hall), would not be a bad thing. If Davis' squad really gels, late season (home) matchups with a rebuilding Syracuse and an interesting Seton Hall squad offer possibilities.

Experience and Close Games

Definitions and Methods
2009 was not notable for close games, at least not until the post season. A "close game" is one decided by 5 points or less. The 5 point margin suggests that the decision could have turned on 2 or fewer possessions -- a game that was probably settled in the last minute or so. Who would be more likely to play close games? A team with a bad record (like Notre Dame back in 2007)? I sorted the conference by percentage of the team's schedule that contained close games...

	Record			% of	Exp.
Team	W	L	Pct	Sch	Yrs
Seton Hall	7	4	0.636	0.344	1.65
Rutgers	5	6	0.455	0.344	1.39
Villanova	7	2	0.778	0.237	2.04
Marquette	4	4	0.500	0.229	2.45
Georgetown	1	6	0.143	0.226	1.11
DePaul	4	3	0.571	0.212	1.20
West Virginia	3	4	0.429	0.200	1.26
South Florida	1	5	0.167	0.194	1.58
Syracuse	5	2	0.714	0.184	1.65
Providence	3	3	0.500	0.182	2.53
Cincinnati	4	1	0.800	0.156	1.29
Louisville	4	1	0.800	0.135	1.72
Notre Dame	3	1	0.750	0.111	2.48
St. John's	3	0	1.000	0.088	0.86
Connecticut	2	0	1.000	0.056	2.20
Pittsburgh	1	1	0.500	0.056	1.94
Overall	57	43	0.570	0.187

The table shows the team's record in close games, the percentage of the schedule that involved close games and lastly, Ken Pomeroy's Experience Level, a stat in which he combines minutes played with class. The Overall line sums wins, losses calculates the winning percentage and the close games as a percentage of all games played. [Note the winning percentage is > .500 because I have included all games -- OOC, conference & post season -- for each team]

Did "not very good teams" play more close games? Well, yes...and no. True, Seton Hall and Rutgers did have the most close games, about 1/3 of their schedule was decided by 5 points or less, but Villanova and Marquette, two teams that finished near the top of the conference were just behind. That set of two paired teams provide an interesting snapshot on their seasons, relative to each other. In close games Seton Hall pulled out over 60% of them, while Rutgers could not break even, a capsule statement of their respective seasons and records. The same holds for Villanova and Marquette. Many had those two teams in a virtual tie in the Big East standings going into the season, but the Wildcats held a very healthy margin in the close games. The Golden Eagles stood at 50% (four of those games occurred after Dom James ended his season with an injury; Marquette went 1-3 in those games...another effect of losing the senior guard?). While Connecticut and Pittsburgh, two 1st quartile teams had the fewest close games (Pittsburgh's in particular, were badly timed), but St. John's and Notre Dame, two teams that finished in the bottom half of the conference played only a single close game more than UConn and Pitt.

The two "losingest" teams, Georgetown and South Florida really caught my eye. Among teams that had 20% or more of their schedule decided by 5 points or less, those two had strikingly poor winning percentages. While the folks over at the Hoya Prospectus Blog have examined the Georgetown season in detail in an attempt to construct a narrative of the 2009 season, I have not seen a post that explains this abnormally low winning percentage, though a post on experience discussed overall performance (and concluded it was not a decisive factor). If Villanova is an outlier (on the high side), those two were clear outliers on the low side. Ironically one of Villanova's close losses and Georgetown's single close game win -- was the 2/28 game played at the Wachovia.

Learn Anything in the School of Hard Knocks?
Georgetown was one of the "younger" teams in the Big East. Was their bad run (as suggested by a few fans & examined in depth by statistical analysis) a product of their youth? The Hoya Prospectus Blog (see above) says "no", but my question is more specific -- was youth a factor when the game was close? Looking at all of the Big East teams (same set of games), for each close game, I compared the experience-level of the two squads to determine if the "more experienced" squad won. Going back to each team, I reclassified each close game according to whether the result was consistent with the experience level of the two teams -- ie "did the more experienced team win?". The survey yields a few interesting nuggets...

	W/L vs Exp			Exp.
Team	Ag.	Dis.	Pct.	Yrs.
Syracuse	7	0	1.000	1.65
Connecticut	2	0	1.000	2.20
Pittsburgh	2	0	1.000	1.94
West Virginia	6	1	0.857	1.26
Cincinnati	4	1	0.800	1.29
Notre Dame	3	1	0.750	2.48
Rutgers	8	3	0.727	1.39
Seton Hall	8	3	0.727	1.65
Louisville	3	2	0.600	1.72
DePaul	4	3	0.571	1.20
Georgetown	4	3	0.571	1.11
Villanova	5	4	0.556	2.04
Marquette	4	4	0.500	2.45
Providence	3	3	0.500	2.53
South Florida	2	4	0.333	1.58
St. John's	0	3	0.000	0.86
Overall	65	35	0.650

I sorted the data by the "expectations percentage" and included Pomeroy's experience level as a point of comparison. Hmmm, these results look pretty interesting. True Connecticut and Pittsburgh offer a sample too small to draw conclusions, but Syracuse and West Virginia look pretty conclusive. Seton Hall and Rutgers show consistent results (even though their won/loss records in close games were very different). Even down-on-their-luck DePaul and contrarian Georgetown show reults that agreed more than disagreed with the experience expectation. Looking at the bottom of the table, St. John's and South Florida appear to be counter intuitive (but consider that two of St. John's counter-expectation wins came versus Georgetown...that team again).

Marquette and Providence came at .500, both for winning percentage in close games (4-4, 3-3 respectively) and for "experience result consistency". They caught my eye because they are two of the more experienced teams in the conference -- Marquette was ranked #1 in the Big East according to Pomeroy, while Providence was #3, behind Notre Dame. Common sense (and this data) suggest they underperformed. Both also had 1st year coaches, relatively inexperienced 1st year coaches. Buzz Williams and Keno Davis each logged a single season as head coach before coming into the Big East.