Seton Hall -- A First Look at the OOC Schedule

The Opponents Announced
The Pirates released their out of conference schedule early last week, and it appears that, despite the loss of Isaiah Whitehead, Coach Kevin Willard has upgraded the Hall's slate for the 2016-17 season. Borrowing a leaf from Anonymous Eagles' playbook, I have averaged Pomeroy's 2016 rankings for the slate announced late last week, along with Pomeroy's rankings for the out of conference slate they played last season. I also added the RPI rankings (averaged again, not using the algorithm for the SOS) as a point of comparison. As of last March, the NCAA's Selection Committee (for better or worse...) continues to use the RPI as a point of reference. On to the details (again borrowing Anonymous Eagles' format (Kenpom rank is followed by RPI).

2015-16 Season:
Low: Wichita State (8, 50)
High: Bradley (336, 305 out of 351)
Average of Seton Hall's 13 opponents (Pomeroy): 165.3
Standard Deviation of Rank (Pomeroy): 106.7
Median Opponent Ranking (Pomeroy): 193

Ironically, both their highest and lowest ranked opponents were out of the Missouri Valley Conference. Both games were wins.

2016-17 Season:
Low: California (29, 16)
High: Central Connecticut State (351, 351 out of 351)
Average of Seton Hall's 9 known opponents (Pomeroy): 151
Standard Deviation of Rank (Pomeroy): 123.3
Median Opponent Ranking (Pomeroy): 61

The numbers reflect last season's performance, and are -- at best -- only partially predictive of performance this season. Iowa is listed as the highest ranked opponent per Pomeroy, but looking at both Pomeroy and the RPI, this should be a split decision between Iowa, 23 in Pomeroy and 28 RPI and California, ranked #29 by Pomeroy, but #16 in the RPI. I went with California because I believe coach Cuonzo Martin's squad will finish with a better rank next season. The Golden Bears return 6'11" forward Ivan Rabb, a consensus lottery pick had he stayed in the NBA draft last June. Rabb is a legitimate National (and Pac-12) Player of the Year candidate and a consensus of Pac-12 observers put California in the Pac-12 upper division with a return to the NCAAs in the offering. The Hawkeyes lost four senior starters off the 22-11 squad that rose as high as #3 in the AP polls before fading to a third round elimination in the NCAAs. The good news for Iowa coach Fran McCaffery is that rising senior 6'6" wing Peter Jok, also an NBA draft candidate, returned for his senior season. Although McCaffery has a deep squad and expects a solid freshman class, Hawkeyes have a lot of gaps to fill and most likely will struggle to maintain a presence in the upper half of the Big Ten this season. A return to the NCAA Tournament is not a forgone conclusion.

While the highs and lows both moved lower, the average and mean indicate the schedule is actually better (statistically) than the 2015-16 slate which featured (per Pomeroy) one opponent with a rank greater than #300 and four opponents ranked in the 200s. Those five were somewhat offset by two top 50 opponents and three others ranked in the top 100. While the 2016-17 slate has two last question marks (the second the third round opponents in the AdvoCare Invitational), the slate so far has one opponent ranked below 300, three ranked in the 200s and most importantly, three in the top 50 (Pomeroy) and two others in the top 100.

The schedule with Pomeroy and RPI

Date	Opponent	H/A/N	Conf.	2015-16
					K Pom	RPI
11-Nov	Fairleigh Dickinson	H	NEC		270	208
13-Nov	Central Connecticut St.	H	NEC		351	351
17-Nov	Iowa	A	Big Ten		23	28
24-Nov	Florida	N	SEC		41	52
25-Nov	TBD	N
27-Nov	TBD	N
1-Dec	Columbia	H	Ivy		110	131
6-Dec	Hawaii	A	Big West		56	86
7-Dec	California	N	Pac-12		29	16
12-Dec	South Carolina	N	SEC		61	57
17-Dec	Delaware	H	CAA		278	271
23-Dec	Rutgers	H	Big Ten		291	294

Drawing Florida in the first round of the AdvoCare Invitational will provide the Pirates with the chance to earn a quality win, the type that draws the attention of the early polls and the Selection Committee. The Gators return four starters from the 2015-16 squad that won 21 games and went three rounds into the NIT. Angel Delgado will have his hands full with 6'11" 255 pound John Egbunu, a South Florida transfer who played 34 games for the Gators last season. Egbunu, an efficient scorer and rebounder, is foul prone. With a solid entering class and Virginia Tech transfer Jalen Hudson eligible, coach Mike White should have them ready to return to the elites of the SEC next season. Potential AdvoCare second round opponents include Quinnipiac and (most probably) a rematch with Gonzaga which, should it happen, be a story lede nationally. The Zags however, return only three contributors from their 28-8 squad, and will need much of the season to bring the balance of the squad up to speed. They may be ready for the NCAAs by March, but not for the Pirates in November. Opponents on the other side of the bracket include a rebuilding Stanford, along with conference powerhouses Iowa State and Miami. Should the Hall advance to the championship game, their RPI and Pomeroy ranks should be top 30. South Carolina graduated three senior starters from a 25-9 squad that played in the NIT last season, coach Frank Martin will count on rising seniors Duane Notice (who completed 40% of his three point attempts) and Sindarius Thornwell a talented 6'5" ball handling point to lead a young Gamecock squad back into the top half of the SEC (and the NCAAs).

Roster Moves
The published roster lists both of the Pirate transfers from last season, Jevon Thomas (Kansas State) and Madison Jones (Wake Forest). Both appear to be pass first point guards, though Thomas whose free throw rate from 2015, 67.2 (along with a turnover rate of 32.8), suggests he drives the lane as an alternative to setting up a teammate. The tendency is similar to the departed (and aspiring fire fighter) Derrick Gordon. Neither appear to be the kind of efficient (or even prolific) scorer like Isaiah Whitehead. Willard also has three freshmen, all guards, joining this season, giving the squad a guard-heavy flavor. As a ball handling scorer in the Whitehead mold, 6'3" 190 pound Eron Gordon out of Cathedral High School in Indianapolis, might be the closest match. Gordon, a younger brother of Hoosier great and Houston Rocket guard Eric Gordon, averaged 24 points per game as a junior and 19 as a senior. The other two guards, 6'2" Myles Powell averaged 25 points per game as a senior at South Kent Prep and 6'4" Manny Anderson played at the Hun School and Worchester Academy before a prep year at the Hotchkiss School.

Ten Teams and the Conference, Three Questions Each, Part 3

The NBA draft is done, summer league games are winding down and the transfers have made their moves. As July turns up the heat and we all look for air conditioning, a few questions come to mind about each Big East program going into the 2016-17 season...

Marquette
By headcount (and starters), the The Golden Eagles personnel loss appears minimal. Appearances can be deceiving. The Ellenson brothers, along with senior Michael Mache departed. Starter Henry Ellenson put his name in for the NBA draft, brother Wally, recruited as much for track as basketball (and his 5 star brother) lost his scholarship in a numbers crunch that reverberated through the Ellenson clan back in April. With 5'11" transfer Andrew Rowsey ready to play and fifth year senior Katin Reinhardt waiting in the wings, expect Marquette to up the long range feature of Wojo's offense.

1. Steve Wojciechowski -- What can fans expect in year 3? Wojo returns 80% of the minutes, 75% of the possessions and 76% of the points from the squad that went 20-13 last season. Year one to year two of the Wojciechowski Era saw the Golden Eagles improve by seven wins. Another seven win bump in 2016-17 is a stretch, but the back court rotation is promising. Headed by Duane Wilson, Traci Carter, Haanif Cheatham, Sandy Cohen and JaJuan Johnson will all get time. Johnson and Cheatham can hit the three consistently while Carter showed a good instinct for passing and stealing the ball. Wojo bolstered the wings this off season by bringing in Reinhardt, a fifth year senior who, despite starting 18 games for the Trojans in 2015-16, foresaw a diminished role with the 2016-17 Trojans. Reinhardt and Johnson will mentor freshman wing Sam Hauser, a 6'6" consensus Top 100 recruit out of Green Bay Wisconsin. The question marks come in the front court, where Luke Fischer (6'11") and Matt Heldt (6'10") are the roster's only players taller than 6'6". Both will have to stay healthy and contribute if Marquette is to improve on last season's 8-10 conference record. Assuming MU brings 10-11 wins into conference play, a 9-9 or better record should yield another 20 win season albeit versus a stronger slate of opponents. A post season invitation should be forthcoming.

2. Will the Ellenson breakup damage recruiting? In need of a third scholarship, Wojo pulled Wally Ellenson's, which led to some social media "unfriending" in the days that followed. Henry maintains contact with Marquette and the staff while Wally will most like continue to run track for Marquette. Given that Wojo managed a commitment from Hauser, Wisconsin's Gatorade Player of the Year, along with Marcus Howard, another consensus Top 100 guard out of Arizona by way of Findley Prep in Las Vegas, the damage looks minimal at this point. Henry Ellenson's name was called June 23, just as expected, but having the opportunity to sign Reinhardt, a proficient and experienced scorer with stops at UNLV (as a freshman) and USC (two season), was too good to pass on. Wojo received an early verbal for the 2017-18 season from three star power forward Ikechukwu Eke, a Nigerian out of University of Detroit Jesuit High School in Michigan.

3. Will Wojo upgrade the competition this season? Despite winning 20 games before being eliminated in the Big East Tournament, Marquette made no post season tournaments last March. The Golden Eagles out of conference schedule featured matchups with NCAA participants Iowa (a loss) and Wisconsin (a win), NIT invitee Belmont (a loss) to go with LSU and Arizona State (both wins). Five sub 300 RPI ranked teams devalued their 10-2 record going into conference play. Marquette will not participate in the Gavitt Games this season, but if tradition holds Marquette can count on a game with in state rival Wisconsin (at the Bradley Center). The out of conference schedule is taking shape as opponents and dates have been announced via twitter and news release. They will open versus Vanderbilt at a neutral site, return to Milwaukee to host Howard (2016 RPI #331) in their home opener, play Michigan (2016 RPI #58) in the semi-final of their early season invitational tournament (the 2K Classic Benefiting the Wounded Warriors Project this year), with a second game versus either Pitt (2016 RPI #51) or SMU (2016 RPI #13). Three home games follow -- IUPUI (2016 RPI #189), Houston Baptist (2016 RPI #224) and Western Carolina (2016 RPI #167) in that order. They return a date with Georgia (away -- 2016 RPI #62) and head back to the Bradley Center to host Fresno State (2016 RPI #69), in-state rival Wisconsin (2016 RPI #41) and St. Francis, PA (2016 RPI #267). That takes MU to Christmas Week and accounts for 11 of their 13 out of conference games. Howard, the lone #300+ ranked team, will most likely not improve its RPI much next season while St. Francis (PA) and Houston Baptist are worrisome. There is no guarantee that those RPIs will carryover through all of next season, but by the numbers, should Marquette log 10/11 wins versus that slate, post season conversations going into Big East play will include the Golden Eagles. With 11 of 13 out of conference opponents (more or less) identified, let's hope the remaining two are about the same quality.


Providence
Junior guard Kris Dunn, twice Big East Player of the Year, and sophomore Ben Bentil were both drafted by the NBA in June, taking the Friars top two scorers (and top rebounder in Bentil) to the league. Also losing rotation guard Junior Lomomba, Coach Ed Cooley returns 54% of the Friars minutes, 42% of the points scored, 43% of the possessions and 47% of the rebounds from last season's squad. There will be plenty of scoring opportunities available, the question is whether the 2016-17 version of the Friars has a player or players who can step into the role.

1. Who will be the next Council/Cotton/Dunn? Cooley has managed to find a backcourt headliner in every one of his four seasons in Friartown. This time around the candidates his three returning guards, Kyron Cartwright, Drew Edwards and Vincent Council II, along with a true freshman point Maliek White and a transfer, Isaiah Jackson (George Mason, 3 years of eligibility). Cartwright, who connected on 36% of his shots, both short and long range, is the best candidate from the 2015-16 squad. He takes, however, nearly three two point attempts for every three point attempt. Jackson, a well regarded bballer out of Florida, took his first stop at George Mason, coached at the time by Paul Hewitt. Hewitt was considered more skilled at identifying and recruiting talent than developing it once on the roster, was fired in March of 2015, leading to Jackson's move to Friartown and Ed Cooley's roster. While at GMU Jackson took a major role in the Patriots' offense and rebounded well for a guard. White, a 6' 2", two time conference player of the year, lead guard out of Richmond, Virginia, has a profile similar to Dunn's. Though two inches shorter than Dunn and only 170 pounds, White averaged 19.3 points, 6.3 assists and 6.1 rebounds per game last season for George Wythe High School. He might be Cooley's best bet.

2. Is Reggie Bullock ready for prime time? The junior forward is the Friars' lead returning scorer from last season's squad. Cooley has two freshmen wings, Khalif Young out of Ontario, Canada who was selected to play in the Biosteel All-Canadian Games -- the Canadian equivalent of the McDonald's All-Star game and Alpha Diallo, a consensus Top 100 recruit from Brewster Academy. Cooley's fourth option is Indiana (by way of Indian Hill CC) transfer Emmitt Holt, a 6'7" 230 pound power forward who ran afoul of Tom Crean when he struck a teammate with his car (and in a later incident picked up for achohol consumption). Those four will, unless Cooley gets a late signing (he hosted a number of fifth year seniors and JUCOs during the late spring), will be the nucleus of the Friar front court rotation.

3. Can the roster (and Cooley) get the Friars back to the NCAAs? PC lacks a traditional big man to function as a #5 on defense and that will be a problem. Historically Cooley's teams have played a high possession, quick paced game that relies on a well conditioned short rotation that presents an array of inside/outside threats designed to keep defenses honest. The out of conference schedule, as always, is weighted with traditional in state and regional rivals. Given that Rhode Island and Massachusetts should have good seasons, PC's SOS will benefit. Wins versus their Gavitt Games opponent (Ohio State) and Emerald Coast Invitational opponents (Memphis followed by Iowa or Virginia) will establish the Friars as credible challengers going into conference play.


Seton Hall
The Pirates lose a starter and their sixth man, a fifth year guard. While that seems minimal, consider they return 72% of the minutes played, but only 65% of the points scored, 63% of the possessions and 50% of the assists from last season's 25-9 team that won its first Big East Tournament in 24 seasons and made its first NCAA appearance since 2006. Such was the impact of Isaiah Whitehead, who was selected by the Utah Jazz (and traded to the New York Nets) in last months NBA draft. Though relegated to the bench, UMass transfer Derrick Gordon became the Pirate's glue guy and was a crucial part of the Pirates' run to the Big East championship and NCAA bid. Despite the first round elimination by Gonzaga, the run was the second in Gordon's career. Three of the more pressing questions that confront Willard during this off season include:

1. Who will lead the Pirates? Willard handed Whitehead the ball and the point guard spot in May of 2015, a symbolic nod to Whitehead's defacto standing among his peers and a practical step to help Whitehead develop skills he would need for the NBA. Whitehead could put the ball in the basket, but could he run an offense and get his teammates involved? The chemistry developed over the 2015 off season was one key to the Hall's revival in 2015-16, and Willard may have to decide whether to actively promote a successor now that Whitehead has moved on. The early leaders include Desi Rodriguez, another wing nearly as talented -- but more mercurial than Whitehead -- and Ishmael Sanogo, a forward whose work ethic and evolving talents have drawn favorable comments from Willard multiple times over the past two seasons. Rodriguez's demonstrativeness has made him a fan favorite, but also landed him in the coach's dog house a few times last season, Sanogo has developed as a solid defensive, but not an especially assertive offensive, #4. Those two are part of a now four man junior class that also includes Angel Delgado and Kadeem Carrington. The four appear to have a tight bond and may simply lead by committee.

2. Where will the lost points come from? Whitehead accounted for nearly one in four of the Hall's points scored last season. Taking his assists into account, he had a hand in nearly 400 additional points scored. With no obvious scoring machine in the wings, Willard will have to fashion a (large?) committee to close that gap. Rodriguez was efficient at scoring both close and long range, but he will draw more defensive attention. Willard must convince him to share the ball when he draws the extra defender. Among his teammates both Delgado, a traditional low post player and Carrington on the perimeter should be able to exploit any defensive cheating on Rodriguez. Sanogo and rotation player Michael Nzei were reliable inside scorers. Whitehead's absence should provide them with additional opportunities. If Veer Singh can improve his accuracy from the three point line, he may earn a sizable chunk of the available minutes left by whitehead and Gordon. Two freshmen off guards, Myles Powell and (especially) Eron Gordon, should get long looks from Willard.

3. Who runs the offense? Willard may have up to four back court players waiting in the wings. Two transfers were point guards at their previous stops and the two true freshmen were shooting guards. The high schoolers are expected to get to campus this fall, but there may be a glitch with Jevon Thomas, the more promising of transfers. A 6'1", 185 pound rising junior out of Kansas State Thomas is a Queens, NY native and former teammate of Marcus Foster (transferred to Creighton). He was involved in an altercation during an intramural game on the West Orange campus last February and subsequently slipped off the radar. In two seasons with Webber, Thomas showed a good aptitude for passing the ball and setting up his teammates. Rising senior Madison Jones improved his assist rate in each of his three seasons at Wake Forest, but drew a second team suspension in August of 2015 and transferred to the Hall. Unlike Whitehead, neither Thomas nor Jones showed an aptitude for scoring, so Willard will have to look elsewhere. He could, much as he did Whitehead, attempt to convert one of the freshmen off guards, most likely Gordon -- who has been described as an excellent passer and good play maker -- into a serviceable point guard.

On Second Thought -- Plotting Trendlines for Big East Teams (pt 1)

What Funny Shapes Can Teach Us...
I liked tj's original post on mapping Michigan State's efficiency trends during the 2008 season when I read read it years ago, mapping the trend over time could be useful. The graph itself however was visually busy; the trendlines got lost as MSU's offensive and defensive efficiencies (points per possession scored and allowed) gyrated, game-by-game. Which leads us to the real problem of measuring team efficiency over a series of games (in conference out of conference, through a tournament, etc.) -- adjusting the performance to account for the competition. The conference regular season, which offered a more balanced schedule than a composite out of conference slate of opponents, should be a better context for judging performance over time. The bloggers over at Maize-Colored Glasses Blog put together an outstanding set of alphabetically correct posts that mapped each Big Ten team's trends over the course of conference play. I was so impressed with the methodologies described in the "Polynomial-centric Recap: Part 1" that I decided to apply the method (unadjusted and adjusted) for a similar look at the Big East. I describe the techniques later in this post. From the bottom up, (alphabetically correct of course) the conference's last five teams shared some features. The conference standings/seeds for the Big East Tournament:

	W	L	Pct.
Pittsburgh	15	3	0.833
Notre Dame	14	4	0.776
Syracuse	12	6	0.667
Louisville	12	6	0.667
St. John's	12	6	0.667
Cincinnati	11	7	0.611
West Virginia	11	7	0.611
Georgetown	10	8	0.556
Connecticut	9	9	0.500
Villanova	9	9	0.500
Marquette	9	9	0.500
Seton Hall	7	11	0.389
Rutgers	5	13	0.278
Providence	4	14	0.222
South Florida	3	15	0.167
DePaul	1	17	0.056

(16 #16) DePaul

Not an ironic commentary on DePaul's season...honest

I rechecked the numbers and calculations when the fish appeared. The unadjusted trendlines look much the same. Coach Oliver Purnell will bring the program along next season, but seeing offense and defense move in such a symmetrical way throughout the entire season suggests (perhaps) that some nights his young Blue Demon squad got it and other nights not at all. The late season "fish tail" was probably a morale-induced slump. More experienced players should make a difference.

(14 #14) Providence

It was the defense...again

Throughout the Tim Welsh and Keno Davis Eras the Friars have been a Notre Dame Lite -- good offense but little defense. This season was no exception, and Marshon Brooks alone could not carry the team night-in and night-out. Lack of progress no doubt the catalyst that led to Davis' departure, Ed Cooley has been charged to turn things around. One common trait of the teams in the fourth quartile is that the defensive efficiency trendline never falls below the team's offensive efficiency trendline. Though everyone of the four team that finished #13 through #16 won at least one game, winning was neither prevalent (all had winning percentages <0.400) nor sustained for any period of the conference season.

(13 #13) Rutgers

An end of season rally...

The unadjusted trendline suggests the Rutgers players were "getting it" -- Coach Mike Rice's system as the season progressed. Though the Scarlet Knights went 1-3 through the last four games, the defense appears to have stabilized even as their offensive efficiency improved. Note that by the 18th game (a season-ending, 74-75 loss to Providence), trendlines for offensive and defensive efficiency seem poised to cross. And the Knights went on to win their next game, 76-70 in overtime over Seton Hall in the Tuesday night round of the Big East Tournament. The trendline chart adjusted for the competition however suggests something a bit different...

...or a modest slump?

Providence and DePaul, teams that finished #14 and #16 respectively, were Rutgers' last two regular season opponents. The Knights' performance (a 1-1 record on games with margins of +3 and -1 points), coupled with the "fish tail" curve of the trendlines suggest that the team was slumping more than rallying, as the season drew to a close. The win over Seton Hall, an instate rival with whom the Scarlet Knights drew 1-1 on the season, does not refute the trend. It will be interesting to see what Coach Rice does with a squad made up largely of players he recruited.

(12 #12) Seton Hall

The trendlines are consistent with a losing record...

The trendlines converge and cross just before the end of the season (for the curious, game #14 for the Pirates was Villanova). The wave motion is similar to South Florida's (see below), but unlike the teams that finished #13 - #16, the trendline for the Pirates' offensive efficiency crossed to the north of their defensive efficiency trendline, an element the Hall held in common with the other 11 members who finished in the upper three quartiles.

Coach Willard's system was beginning to work

The Hall's last two regular season games, both wins, over St. John's and Marquette, were a huge boost for the adjusted numbers. The Johnnies were seeded #5 in the Big East Tournament and managed to draw a #6 seed in the NCAA Tournament, while Marquette finished the Big East regular season with a 9-9 record, drew a #11 seed in the NCAA Tournament and ran to the Sweet Sixteen.

(15 #15) South Florida

The wave pattern?

Having finished #9, drawing an NIT bid and losing Dominique Jones all in 2010, the Bulls were poised for a rebuilding year, and 2011 lived down to those expectations. The wave pattern (the adjusted version above is consistent with the unadjusted trendlines), which features the trendline for defensive efficiency always above the offensive efficiency trendline, by (more or less) a consistent margin, throughout the conference season. With a 3-15 conference record (10-23 overall) and a cumulative conference record of 51-77 in 4 seasons, I wonder, lacking a clear sign of improvement next season, how much longer Coach Stan Heath will pace the sidelines in Tampa.

Methods & Sources
I used Ken Pomeroy's website, specifically each Big East team's gameplan pages, as the data source for each team's offensive and defensive efficiencies for each conference game played (many thanks to Ken Pomeroy for providing this invaluable resource for the past eight seasons). I plotted the data points for offense and defense and then applied a third order polynomial to map the trend line. Those charts are captioned as "Unadjusted" in this and subsequent posts. The conference average for points per possession in 2011 (conference games only) was 1.037. I adjusted each team's offensive and defensive points per possession for each game using the formulas documented by the Maize-Colored Glasses Blog...
offensive adjustment -- (100 x points per possession)/(1-(opponents average points per possession allowed - conference-wide average points per game allowed)). Given the Big East average points per possession was 1.037, that simplified the adjustment to (100 x points per possession)/(opponents average points per possession allowed - 0.037)
defensive adjustment -- (100 x points per possession allowed)/(opponents average points per possession - 0.037)
A strong defensive effort against Notre Dame would be properly weighted versus a strong defensive effort against DePaul.

Offensive points per possession for each team (ordered by PPP Scored):

		PPP
	Team	Scored
1	Notre Dame	1.130
2	Pittsburgh	1.105
3	Marquette	1.103
4	Syracuse	1.078
5	Villanova	1.077
6	West Virginia	1.049
7	Louisville	1.034
8	Cincinnati	1.030
9	Georgetown	1.026
10T	St. John's	1.022
10T	Connecticut	1.022
12	Providence	1.010
13	Rutgers	1.009
14	South Florida	0.972
15T	Seton Hall	0.958
15T	DePaul	0.958

Defensive points per possession for each team (ordered by fewest points per possession allowed):

		PPP
	Team	Allowed
1	Pittsburgh	0.960
2	Louisville	0.967
3	Cincinnati	0.981
4	Seton Hall	0.987
5	Syracuse	0.989
6	St. John's	1.001
7T	West Virginia	1.004
7T	Connecticut	1.004
9	Georgetown	1.037
10	Notre Dame	1.055
11	Villanova	1.062
12	Marquette	1.070
13	Rutgers	1.082
14	South Florida	1.094
15	Providence	1.111
16	DePaul	1.172

Conference Differentials, Part 11/03/04

Sorting Out...
The conference teams continue to shuffle in this, the last week of conference play, but most have settled into a configuration where the net efficiencies have aligned -- with one or two exceptions -- with their conference records. Bracketology 101 listed 11 Big East teams in the field of 68, the lowest seed, Marquette, on the #9 seed line in the West Region (the weakest of the four regions). The #9 seed is well above the cohort identified by "right side of/wrong side of..." labels. Marquette's status, and that of the other 0.500-level Big East teams therefore, is not in doubt...this week anyway. Of interst too (per Bracketology 101, though those guys are hardly alone) is the number of relatively high seeds the conference teams appear to be in line to draw come Selection Sunday. As of this week, Big East teams due to draw a #1 seed, a #2 seed, two #3 seeds, two #4 seeds and two #5 seeds; that is eight of the top 20 seeds in the tournament allocated to a single conference. Joe Lunardi over at ESPN has seven teams dispersed in the top five seed lines, Jerry Palm (CBS) has seven teams in his top five seed lines as of 3/3
and Hoops Report has six in the top five seed lines in their March 3 bracket.
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	Record			Eff.	Pythag.
Team	W	L	Pct.	Diff.	Win %
Pittsburgh	14	3	0.824	0.143	0.831
Notre Dame	13	4	0.765	0.076	0.691
Louisville	12	5	0.706	0.073	0.700
Syracuse	11	6	0.647	0.054	0.647
Marquette	9	8	0.529	0.046	0.620
West Virginia	10	7	0.588	0.046	0.625
Cincinnati	10	7	0.588	0.030	0.584
Villanova	9	8	0.529	0.027	0.573
Connecticut	9	8	0.529	0.011	0.533
Georgetown	10	7	0.588	0.010	0.529
St. John's	11	6	0.647	-0.011	0.468
Seton Hall	6	11	0.353	-0.022	0.433
Rutgers	5	12	0.294	-0.076	0.300
Providence	3	14	0.176	-0.107	0.237
South Florida	3	14	0.176	-0.114	0.219
DePaul	1	16	0.059	-0.186	0.116
Average					0.507

Sorted by net efficiency and including results through Thursday night's games, St. John's, by virtue of their road loss to Seton Hall on Thursday night, drops back under the "great divide" (net efficiency of zero line), making the positive/negative split 10-6 again. That divide remains remains distinct, with a 21 point "gap" between Georgetown at the bottom of the net positive group (0.010) and St. John's, recipients of a 14 point drubbing at the Rock Thursday night, at the top of the net negative group (-0.011). Villanova, Georgetown, Cincinnati and and Connecticut share a 20 point tier, as large a point spread as the gap that separates Georgetown from St. John's. Pittsburgh and DePaul continue to regress to the mean (the net efficiency of zero), drawing closer to the teams clustered just above and below. St. John's and Marquette continue to stand apart from their peers. By a Pythagorean calculation the Warriors' won-loss record is 1-2 games below their "net performance". The Johnnies' won-loss record by contrast is a surprising +3 off of their Pythagorean Winning Percentage. Thursdays' game is a good illustration of what has happened to the Red Storm. A solid offensive effort by Dwight Hardy was lost in a 14 point Pirate shooting blitz (the Hall shooters could not miss...), as Johnnies' Coach Steve Lavin was ejected from the game with three or so minutes to play.

Offense vs. Defense in Conference Games
Most Big East have 17 conference games on the books. Enough I believe, to take a look at how their offenses and defenses stacked up in conference play. The mean efficiency through this week is 103.1, a bit higher than the average for all of Division 1. Using offensive and defensive efficiencies computed at Ken Pomeroy's website, I developed the scatter chart (below) which indicates how each team's offensive and defensive efficiencies compared to the conference mean.

Almost as surprising as the clear spread of Pittsburgh (and DePaul) from the rest of the conference is the cluster of six teams, all NCAA-bound as of this week, around the offensive axis. All six teams have "good" defenses, but none appear to have particularly strong offenses. That cluster, in a conference this dominant relative to the rest of Division 1, may explain why so many will, status quo ante on Selection Sunday, make the field of 68. Those who have noticed Seton Hall's defense this season are not seeing things. The chart confirms Hall Coach Kevin Willard does indeed have the Pirates playing defense this season. Any discussion in the Nova Nation, which may have been triggered by the Wildcats' late season swoon, would have to favor those who cite the decline in the defense as the root cause for decline, as if Notre Dame's 20 made three point field goals were not conclusive enough. Unlike the Irish, Villanova's offense is not robust enough to overcome the defensive weaknesses. Would an additional four points in offensive efficiency (about 0.04 points per possession on average) really translate into an additional four wins? Probably not.

Seton Hall Post Game: Value the Ball

?#!?#%!! Not Again...
For the third consecutive game the outcome came down to the last shot. And twice in those three games the ball was in the hands of the opponent. The nightmare scenario was unfolding as Jeremy Hazell, Seton Hall's latest 2,000 point scorer had the ball with 0:11 on the clock and 25 points already banked from this game. Hazell-led teams had never beaten the Wildcats, and this was the best chance in his four seasons. Hazell, who had 2,005 points entering the game, will probably almost certainly pass Greg Tynes (1974-78) to become the #3 scorer in Pirate history. But his total stopped at 25 tonight as his last three point attempt careened off the rim and into Dominic Cheek's eager grasp. 60-57 Villanova in a game that was among the strangest of this already strange season. The two teams played the 100th game in a shared tradition that goes back to 1921. Villanova may hold a 63-37 edge, but three of the last four meetings have come down to the last possession.

The Athletic Department website posted the official boxscore and the AP wire story, "No. 15 Villanova Beats Seton Hall, 60-57", lead with freshman James Bell's outstanding shot accuracy, Villanova's appalling turnover spree and the series' century mark. The breakdown by halves...

Opponent:		Seton Hall University
	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	30.4	32.7	63.1
	Offense				Defense
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	92.1	98.0	95.2		92.1	88.8	90.4
eFG%	54.3	58.3	56.1		37.1	35.2	36.2
TORate	36.2	33.7	34.9		6.6	15.3	11.1
OR%	45.5	27.3	36.4		25.0	30.0	27.5
FTA/FGA	13.0	77.8	41.5		16.1	51.9	32.8
FTM/FGA	13.0	61.1	34.1		16.1	37.0	25.9
ARate	63.6	66.7	65.0		50.0	55.6	52.6
Blk%	6.5	0.0	4.9		3.2	7.4	5.2
Stl%	16.5	6.3	14.3		3.3	6.1	4.8
PPWS	1.15	1.30	1.22		0.84	0.86	0.85
2FG%	47.1	54.5	50.0		41.2	53.3	46.9
3FG%	50.0	42.9	46.2		21.4	8.3	15.4
FT%	100.0	78.6	82.4		100.0	71.4	78.9
%2FG	57.1	37.5	46.7		50.0	55.2	52.6
%3FG	32.1	28.1	30.0		32.1	10.3	21.1
%FT	10.7	34.4	23.3		17.9	34.5	26.3

Keys to Winning
If your eFG% 56.1% you should win, right? If your opponent's eFG% is 36.1%, you should win by double digits. If you snag 36.4% of your misses while you limit your opponent to 27.5% of his misses you should be looking at a +15 margin of victory. The three point winning margin can be attributed nearly exclusively to a 34.9% turnover rate. Over 1 in 3 Villanova possessions ended in a turnover. Seton Hall turned the ball over on just over 1 in 10 of their possessions. And despite their inability to consistently convert field goal attempts and their inability to rebound effectively against the Wildcats, this game hung on a Jeremy Hazell three point attempt with 0:0.6 seconds left. The Pirates had 17 more field goal attempts (58 to 41) than the Wildcats (twice as many three point attempts 26-13) even though Nova limited the Hall's second chance opportunities.

"It was another ugly game...Pitt was an ugly game...and this one was too" Coach Wright's voice trailed off at the end of his thought. There was a lot to like from the game, but the turnover rate virtually negated strong defensive rebounding numbers (the Hall is ranked #13 in the conference for offensive rebounding rate at 30.7%; Villanova held them to 3% less), strong shot efficiency and excellent shot defense and took the game to the last possession and shot. "Too many three point attempts" were Coach Willard's last words in his unusually brief and subdued post game presser. "What else can he say?" shrugged a writer near me "...at this point in the season he has covered everything..."

Ineffectual Mutterings...
The Wildcats' tempo continues to decline as Nova faced another 2-3 zone defense. For the fourth consecutive game Villanova has played for fewer than the conference average of 65.4 possessions. For this game the 'Cats came in at 63.1 possessions, below their own conference average of 65.5 possessions. The teams were on track for a 60 possession game going into the half, but consistent with previous games, the pace increased in the second half.

With 0:39 on the clock and four fouls apiece on Corey Fisher and Maalik Wayns, the staff went to a "rebound & defense/penetrate & free throw shooter" rotation, subbing Fisher and Wayns out for Maurice Sutton and Isaiah Armwood. Dominic Cheek played the point on five man team that consisted of Pena, Cheek, Sutton, Armwood and freshman James Bell. The freshman, who scored a career-high 21 points on an extraordinarily efficient 7-9 (4-6, 3-3) and 3-3 from the line, paced the Wildcats for the first time in his career. Bell's eFG% was 100% with a PPWS of 2.04. "We stopped Fisher and Wayns, but everyone on that team can score..." replied Coach Willard to a question about Bell's performance.

Bell, born in Plainfield (NJ), grew up in Florida. A few reports speculated on how a Plainfield High School team with a back court of (Villanova-bound) Ty Johnson, (red shirting this season in Pittsburgh) Isaiah Epps and Bell might have fared in NJHSAA play..."He was a sophomore (in high school)...(and) approached us and said 'I want to play for you'..." Coach Wright described how Villanova's recruitment of Bell opened. "We said 'ok, but we have to see you play before we decide (whether to offer a scholarhip)..." "Coach! So what happened?" "We saw him play the next day and offered..."

Ray Floriani, at the game, will add a post later.

Records, Next Up...
Villanova's records stand at 20-6 overall and 8-5 in conference play. The Wildcats have run their string of consecutive 20 (or more) win season to seven, going back to 2004-05. The Pirates records stand at 11-15 and 5-9 in conference play. Seton Hall hits the road for a swing through the Midwest, taking in Marquette next Saturday, and Notre Dame the Saturday following (2/26). Villanova heads West too, out to Chicago to play DePaul on Saturday, then back to Philadelphia to close out the season series with Syracuse on President's Day.

Roster Notes
Corey Stokes did not play, and should per Coach Wright's comments post game, be inactive for two weeks. The objective of the rest is to have him healthy and 100% for the balance of the his playing career at Villanova...most likely the last few games of the season. When the "two week" clock started however, was somewhat ambiguous. When asked if Stokes would be available for the Syracuse game (2/21), Coach Wright replied "...that would be the earliest...". The certainty -- Stokes will not play at DePaul Saturday.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Providence at Seton Hall

by Ray Floriani
NEWARK, NJ - Seton Hall left little doubt from the opening tap of this one. The Pirates defeated Providence 81-71 at the Prudential Center on Sunday. The Pace and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Providence	79	90
Seton Hall	81	100

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Providence	50	32	27	24
Seton Hall	45	26	26	14

Warmups at the Rock

The field goal mark of the Friars is a bit deceptive as Seton Hall played very good defense. Providence shot 4 of 19 beyond the arc . Inside they were 21 of 35, a 60% rate. A fair percentage of those came in the stretch with the Hall holding a double digit lead and in command of the contest. Marshon Brooks, Providence’s outstanding scorer, registered 20 points. Brooks however shot 8 of 17 from the floor. Credit some good defense on the part of Jeff Robinson for that.

The Hall ‘D’ (some pressure, some man and zone in half court) was rooted in PC’s 24% turnover rate as the Pirates forced 19 turnovers. Brooks alone committed 9 of them. “Turnovers were definitely our downfall,” Providence coach Keno Davis said. “Credit Seton Hall’s defense for that.” Davis also felt the Hall defense prevented his club from getting any offensive continuity in half court.

Pirates received a number of contributions in this victory. Herb Pope was a force inside with a game high 23 points, 11 rebounds in 31 minutes. It’s safe to say the junior forward is in full playing shape.

Robinson was effective inside, out and on the break. He posted 20 points 6 boards. Jeremy Hazell gave a solid 10 point 6 assist effort. The senior guard constantly looked to feed teammates often passing up a shot in the process. Jordan Theodore gave a respectable 11 point, 4 assist outing.

Seton Hall lost several games earlier in the season because of the inability to put together a 40 minute effort. That was not the case today. Some late game Providence pressure got the margin to nine but the Hall regrouped to seal the verdict.

A young team, Providence received fine performances from two talented sophomores. Center Bilal Dixon, a Jersey City native, had a 17 point, 10 rebound day. Vincent Council, had a twenty point, five assist showing at the guard spot.

PC coach Keno Davis

Numbers
Providence is 13-9 (2-7 Big East). Seton Hall improves to 10-12 (4-6). Providence host South Florida Wednesday at the ‘Dunk’. Friars defeated Louisville and Villanova in their last two games at their home facility. Pirates visit West Virginia on Wednesday a place coach Kevin Willard ‘fondly’ remembers from his playing days at Pitt and the traditional ‘backyard brawl’. “They guy (Mountaineer mascot) with the rifle drives me crazy,” Willard said. Actually, the Mountaineer defense is of paramount concern. “Coach Bob Huggins gets his teams to defend as well as anyone in the country,” Willard said. Regardless, the Hall will journey to Morgantown with a better mindset than a week or two ago. “Winning is great,” Willard said, “it’s a good feeling.”

About an hour after the game
a quiet street outside the Rock

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Rutgers at Seton Hall

by Ray Floriani
NEWARK, NJ - Opportunity lost.
That is the theme looking back on Seton Hall's week. There was a chance for the upset of Georgetown that slipped away. Yesterday, the in-state rival visited the 'Rock' and the Hall could have used a victory to try to get some momentum. It wasn't to be as Rutgers exited the Prudential Center 66-60 victors.

Outside the Rock the streets are busy
prior to game time

The efficiency numbers:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Rutgers	67	99
Seton Hall	67	90

Hall fans wave their towels

Pace definitely favored Rutgers as Seton Hall was more inclined to get this into a high octane affair. Usually games start fast and gradually settle into the regular pace. The first four minutes of this one however saw the tempo set and dictated. After four minutes the Hall led 5-4 and had 6 possessions (83 OE) to Rutgers 5 (80 OE).

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Rutgers	50	25	30	19
Seton Hall	38	12	30	16

Lights out for Seton Hall introductions

Outside of turnover rate and an even mark in OREB percentage, Seton Hall trailed significantly in the other two factors. A 6 of 27 shooting performance severely affected the eFG mark. Pirates shot 17 of 41 (41%) from two point range which was not exactly lighting it up. Rutgers, on the other hand, showed inside strength going 22 of 43 (51%) from inside the arc.

Seton Hall hit the offensive glass as the Pirates had a 12-10 edge in those 'raw' rebounding numbers. Unfortunately some of the best efforts on put backs were unrewarded as Seton Hall had trouble finishing in the paint. That was one of the reasons Rutgers built a double digit first half lead.

Game action captured from a number of rows off the floor.

Rutgers led 31-23 at the half. The lead hit double digits early second half. Seton Hall trimmed the deficit but never got this to a one possession affair. Outside of a brief Seton Hall lead early in the game, Rutgers was in command.

Dane Miller was listed on the box score as a guard. The 6-7 sophomore swingman for the Scarlet Knights, was a tough matchup for the Pirates. Miller scored a team high 17 points while adding 10 rebounds. He was 7 of 13 (0 for 1 from three) from the field. Miller has the ability to be a factor in half court and transition scenarios. At the other end Miller was no slouch with 3 blocked shots and 8 of those rebounds on the defensive end. About the only area he was deficit was the charity stripe (3 of 7).

A good all around effort was provided by Gilvydas Biruta, Rutgers' freshman forward. The 6-8 Biruta played 22 minutes scoring 12 points and pulling down a game high 11 rebounds (6 on the offensive end).

Herb Pope had a solid 20 point, 16 board, 3 blocked shots effort for the Pirates in 37 minutes. A positive indication that the 68 junior forward is now in full form and game condition.

Hall put four players in double figures but it was a deceptive number performance wise. Pope led all players in scoring and rebounding. Jordan Theodore had 11 point but twice as many turnovers 94) as assists (2). Jeremy Hazell scored 15 points. The Hall senior guard had the opportunities as he attempted 21 shots hitting just 6 (29%). Jeff Robinson checked in with a dozen points and he too had a generous amount of chances, hitting just 5 of 14 (36%).

Rivalry?
The star Ledger had a great pre-game piece on the whole idea of the Seton Hall-Rutgers rivalry. The whole premise is the respective coaches Mike Rice of Rutgers and Kevin Willard of Seton Hall can't and shouldn't obsess on sweeping these games. Seeing the big picture in moving up the Big East ladder is more important. While the coaches and players want to win, the reality is it is a game, or two, as part of an 18 game Big East schedule. It has also been noted when the day comes and the two schools are in the conference's upper echelon, then the rivalry will gain fruition.

Regardless, you have the two Garden State Big East members about 30 miles apart. The different institutional backgrounds, the State University of New Jersey and the Catholic University of New Jersey. The fans, though love it. They light up the chat rooms, fuel the pre and post game talk and genuinely exercise those bragging rights should their school, rooting interest or alma mater get that win. While the respective coaches and players eye that 'big picture' and say otherwise, getting a win in this series has to be a little special and significant.

Numbers
Rutgers is 12-7 (3-4 in the Big East. Seton Hall drops to 8-12 (2-6). Doesn't get easier the Hall's next one is at Syracuse on Tuesday. Rutgers, suddenly on a two game Big east win streak, visits Cincinnati on Wednesday. Former Rutgers assistant Darren Savino, now an aide to Mick Cronin at Cincy, will face his former club. Attendance was 8,929.

No rivalry?
Evelyn (L) and Amanda (R) show proudly display the towel.

Post Game: Syracuse at Seton Hall

Just When You Thought it Was Time to Turn Off the Lights
While setting up my computer for the RTC Live Blog I looked up and realized the Hall had opened the upper bowl of the Prudential Center (known locally as "The Rock") for this game. This is the first time I recall seeing the curtains retracted for a Seton Hall game, and it gave the arena a very different look and feel from the arena floor. There were 10,862 fans in attendance and for the first 35 minutes I was not sure who had bought more tickets -- Otto's Army or the Pirate Crew. The roar that went up with 2:18 to play in the game, Jordan Theodore had just hit his second free throw to cut Syracuse's lead to two, told me The Rock was Seton Hall's House today.

Syracuse beat Seton Hall 61-56 in a game that was not decided until the 0:16 mark of the second half. Separated by a single point, 20-19 Syracuse, at the half, the Orange spent the first seven minutes of the second half on an 18-9 run that secured them a double digit lead. Though they survived several pushes by the Pirates over the next eight minutes, the Pirates had one last, sustained push that translated into an 11-2 run that cut the Orange lead to two, 55-53 with just over two minutes left. The Orange hung on, outscoring the Pirates 6-3 over the last two minutes, to secure the win. Pirate forward Jeff Robinson paced all scorers with 17 points to go with his 14 rebounds. Pirate forward Herb Pope also recorded a double-double, scoring 14 points while snagging 20 rebounds. Point guard Brandon Triche and forward Kris Joseph paced the Orange with 15 points apiece. The breakdown by halves...

	1st	2nd	Game
Pace	34.3	33.3	67.6
	Seton Hall				Syracuse
	1st	2nd	Game		1st	2nd	Game
Rating	55.4	111.1	82.8		58.3	123.1	90.2
eFG%	22.9	45.3	33.6		32.6	72.5	51.2
TORate	11.7	27.0	18.8		26.7	12.4	19.2
OR%	24.0	64.7	40.5		16.7	25.0	20.6
FTA/FGA	11.4	28.1	19.4		43.5	130.0	83.7
FTM/FGA	8.6	25.0	16.4		21.7	60.0	39.5
ARate	50.0	61.5	57.1		57.1	66.7	63.2
Blk%	13.0	3.0	7.5		0.0	0.0	0.0
Stl%	3.0	7.2	8.7		11.9	9.3	10.6
PPWS	0.51	1.02	0.77		0.72	1.27	1.01
2FG%	44.4	43.5	43.9		40.0	63.6	50.0
3FG%	0.0	33.3	11.5		12.5	55.6	35.3
FT%	75.0	88.9	84.6		50.0	46.2	47.2
%2FG	84.2	54.1	64.3		60.0	34.1	42.6
%3FG	0.0	24.3	16.1		15.0	36.6	29.5
%FT	15.8	21.6	19.6		25.0	29.3	27.9

A Defensive First Half
Seton Hall Coach Kevin Willard had tried to beat Syracuse's fabled 2-3 zone by first shooting over it. The effort yielded zero points as the Pirate back court and wings (principally Jordan Theodore, Jamel Jackson and Fuquan Edwin) shot a combined 0-13 in the first half. The second approach, to press the Orange, crash the defensive boards and simply outrun the Syracuse coverage to score before the Orange could set up the zone was a bit more successful...the emphasis on a bit. While the Pirates scored six fast break points, Pope, Edwin, Lawrence and Robinson all missed chippies within three feet of the basket. Defense kept the Hall in the first half, after shooting an abysmal 30.4% from the field they seemed lucky to be down by only one. The Orange however had their own problems. Despite scoring seven points in the game's first three minutes (to the Hall's 2), SHU's defensive switches, combined with Syracuse's uncharacteristcally sloppy ball handling, stalled the Orange offense. The Hall's very physical play, a defensive strategy that translated into eight first half fouls, including three on Jeff Robinson, distracted the Cuse, and though it put them on the line for 10 free throw attempts, the Orange were able to convert only five times.

Half Time Adjustments
With the shot conversions stone cold, Willard decided to crash the offensive boards, sending at times even the guards to secure second chance opportunities. The strategy was a double-edged sword. Note from the table above that the Hall secured a phenomenal 64.7% of their second half misses, but note also how Syracuse's own shot conversion improved significantly as well. With four, sometimes five players on the board, there was no one back to set up the defensive should the Orange secure the rebound. Willard also put Lawrence at the point and moved Theodore (and Eniel Polynice when Theodore rested) to the off guard position. Lawrence, more a penetrater than a step back jump shooter, passed the ball around the perimeter to locate a seam in the zone, and if one of the forwards could set a pick at the top of the key, turn the corner and penetrate the lane. When he met doubed defenders Lawrence would find a forward (Pope or Robinson) flashing along the baseline and pass. When the Orange adjusted, Lawrence would pass to Pope at the foul line and let Pope decide to shoot or pass to a forward (often Robinson) at the baseline. While the strategy definitely stretched the Orange zone, the defensive effort to rebound often left one of Syracuse's perimeter players (often Triche or Jardine) open to shoot the three or penetrate the lane.

Numbers...Next...
Syracuse extends their winning streak to 16 and their conference record improves to 3-0. The Orange will face a resurgent St. John's squad in the Garden Wednesday. Seton Hall falls to 7-9 overall and 1-3 in conference play. The Pirates travel to Chicago to play DePaul on Wednesday.

I will be in the Pavilion Sunday, to cover Cincinnati at Villanova for RTC Live. Look for the link to the chat on Rush the Court's front page. Hope to hear from you.

Preview -- Syracuse at Seton Hall

Inconvenient Timing...
...but is there ever a good time for a visit from the Orange? First year coach Kevin Willard is about to find out why fans love the Big East (and the conference coaches hate it) -- there is never an off night. With players sidelined and those available still seeming to be on holiday, the Pirates nevertheless host the Syracuse Orange Saturday at the Rock. Syracuse is ranked #4 nationally, and puts a 15 game winning streak and a 2-0 Big East record on the line. Questions about who would step into the roles vacated by Wes Johnson, Andy Rautins and Arinze Onuaku have been pushed to the back burner (winning streaks have a habit of doing that) as the current roster has stepped up to mold their own style of play -- somewhere on the good side of the "me next" teams of 2006-2009 and the win-by-committee approach favored last season -- and risen to the top again early in conference play. If the Pirate faithful do not look back wistfully to the maelstrom of former Coach Bobby Gonzalez, it is only because those days especially the last ones, were excruciatingly painful. Give Coach Willard another few weeks and an injury or two more, and a few may well break out in a chorus of "Auld Lang Syne". Watching a new coach try to motivate an experienced (but set in their ways?) roster can be painful, and the Pirate Crew are feeling the pain right now.

	Hall		Cuse
Opponent	W/L	Diff.	W/L	Diff.
Cornell	W (H)	+24	W (H)	+20

Not much to compare via common opponents, but the Cornell result is interesting. The Hall came off a road loss to Temple and pummeled the Big Red. Both teams scored in the same neighborhood against the common opponent. Of course the Hall had a healthy Jeremy Hazell. The Oranges' best OOC win was a 14 point victory (72-58) over Michigan State (Big Ten, 9-4, RPI #35) in Madison Square Garden last month. Their best overall win to date was their last game is a 70-58 (+12) win over conference mate Notre Dame (13-2, 2-1, RPI #12). The Orange won the Legends Classic (covered by Rush the Court Live) over the Thanksgiving Weekend. The Pirates' best outing is their 64-55 win over conference mate South Florida (6-10, 0-3, RPI #102). Their loss to Arkansas in the Big East-SEC Challenge (SEC, 10-4, RPI #142) was painful.

Lineups, Rotations...
...Coach Willard uses an eight man rotation (if a nineth man checks in, it is Anali Okoloji, a 6-8 freshman front court project who shows a lot of enthusiasm), with junior point guard Jordan Theodore (6-0, 174 lbs), along with senior off guard Keon Lawrence (6-2, 177 lbs), freshman wing Fuquan Edwin (6-6, 205 lbs) at the #3, senior Jeff Robinson (6-6, 230 lbs) at the #4 and senior Herb Pope (6-8, 236 lbs) at the #5. Lawrence got the nod over senior transfer Jamel Jackson (6-3, 202 lbs) in the Pirates last outing (a 73-54 loss to Louisville), and it appears Coach Willard will try the senior guard again. Jackson will come off the bench, along with fifth year senior Eniel Polynice (6-5, 220 lbs), who decided to play his last season of D1 ball in South Orange. Patrik Auda (6-9, 225 lbs), a freshman Euro-style #4 will probably come off the bench early to spell Pope or lend more height to the front court.

Coach Jim Boeheim has not tinkered with his starting five, opening with 15 wins for the 3rd time in his 35 year tenure at Syracuse has made him a bit conservative perhaps? Sophomore Branden Triche (6-4, 205 lbs) will start at the point, with junior Scoop Jardine (6-2, 190 lbs) at the #2, junior Kris Joseph (6-7, 210 lbs) at the #3, senior Rick Jackson (6-9, 240 lbs) at the #4 and freshman Fab Melo (7-0, 244 lbs) at the #5. The first to sit will be Melo, and when he does (about five or so minutes into the first half), Coach Boeheim will call one of four numbers for his substition. Generally freshman Dion Waiters (6-4, 215 lbs) gets an early nod, with sophomore forward James Southerland (6-8, 210 lbs), freshman forward CJ Fair (6-8, 204 lbs) or (if Boeheim wants to maintain Melo's heighth along the back line) freshman center Baye Moussa Keita (6-10, 213 lbs) getting the nod. Though 15 games those five have drawn minutes (except Providence, where Fair was a DNP) even in the tight games. If the scoring margin goes beyond 20 or so, look for another four as many as four additional players to check in, led by sophomore forward Mookie Jones (6-8, 220 lbs) who has averaged double digit minutes in eight games this season.

By the Numbers, Offense & Defense...
...Syracuse tends to play for 67.9 possessions, just above the D1 average of 67.8 (adjusted according to Ken Pomeroy's Syracuse Team Page), while Seton Hall prefers to run -- 69.9 (see the Hall's page at Ken Pomeroy's site). Neither team should be uncomfortable with a higher possession rate, and though Pomeroy's 69 possession projection does not surprise, 70+ would not be shocking. A "Four Factors" comparison when Syracuse has the ball...

When Syracuse has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Orange O	53.4	16.3	37.0	38.8
Pirate D	44.4	21.1	30.3	33.3

The Orange have one of the elite offenses nationally, ranked #11, according to Ken Pomeroy's Scouting Report. Syracuse is strong shooting the ball (see their eFG%, ranked #45) and getting second chance opportunities, while they are just average (considering the size and athleticism of their front court, surprising) at getting to the line. Their true strength is turnovers -- they don't. The Hall's defense, while not "elite" is rated strongly (#43) by Pomeroy. Shooting and shot defense (the Hall is ranked #45 in shot defense) should be a strength-on-strength match-up for the two teams. If the Cuse can convert easily, the Hall may have trouble keeping up, and if the Pirates can shut down Orange scoring, look for fewer transition points and more half-court offensive schemes. If Seton Hall can force turnovers, so much the better, as that would negate an Orange advantage. The "Four Factors" look at Seton Hall's offense versus Syracuse's defense:

When Seton Hall has the ball...
				FTA
	eFG%	TO%	OR%	FGA
Pirate O	45.8	18.1	29.8	32.6
Orange D	44.0	22.2	30.4	27.1

The Pirates' lack of offense is central to team woes on the court. Adjusted offense is 103.2 (per Ken Pomeroy), ranked #113 for Division 1. While among the top third of the division, they have problems scoring at crucial times during games, and have suffered through scoring droughts.

Want to Beat Syracuse? Then...
Post it on the web as soon as you figure it out. There are 12 Big East coaches very eager to get that information.
1. Slow it down, take away transition scoring opportunities. When possessions are low(er), the score is close(r). Make Syracuse pass the ball in a half-court set for a few possessions to disrupt their rhythm. Against John Beilein's relatively inexperienced Michigan team, the Orange were held to 61 possessions in a three point (53-50) win.
2. Make them miss. Shooting in college ball, like the NBA, is the strongest single determinant for victory. In the five games where the Orange have shot efficiency (eFG%) held to less than 47% their offensive efficiency was 98.6 and their margin of victory was 7.4 points. In the 10 games where they have converted at better than 47% their offensive efficiency is 121.5 with a margin of victory of 21.4 points.
3. Get physical. Syracuse's FTA/FGA rate is 38.8, at #158 they are ranked close to the mean of Division 1. They convert free throws at a fairly mediocre 66.3% (ranked #243, the bottom third in D1). In the three games where their FTA rate > 50%, their margin of victory is 8.4 points. Overall their average margin of victory is 16.9 points.

Want to Beat Seton Hall? Then...
Make them miss. It is that simple. In games where Seton Hall's eFG% is < 44%, the Pirates are 0-8. In games where the Hall's eFG% is 44.7% or higher they are 7-0. Night and day.

Finally...
...The Orange travel very well. I expect the house will be closer to 65%-35% Seton Hall, unless the fan-base is too discouraged to turn out (hopefully that will not happen). A win would certainly reverse a too long trend of Syracuse wins at Seton Hall (in the last 10 games, the margin is 8-2 Syracuse, 1-4 on the Hall's home court) and re-energize the squad. A competitive showing (Pomeroy projects an eight point Syracuse win), would suggest there are more wins than anticipated in the schedule.

I will be live blogging the game for Rush the Court tomorrow at noon. Drop by and chat if you have the chance.

Guest Contributor Ray Floriani: Dayton & Richmond at Seton Hall

by Ray Floriani
NEWARK, NJ- Christmas week brought a 'tour of the Atlantic Ten' to the Prudential Center. Seton Hall hosted Dayton on Wednesday and Richmond Sunday. Both games saw the Pirates enjoy half time leads only to be reeled in and out played the final twenty minutes. And both losses left Pirate coach Kevin Willard pondering the Hall's immediate future.

Dayton

69

Seton Hall

65

The Rock under lights

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Dayton	37	34	41	16
Seton Hall	44	16	33	14

The Hall led 40-26 at the break and appeared to be in full control. The all important first four minutes of the second half saw Dayton get out to an 11-6 advantage. With 16 minutes to play the margin was suddenly a manageable nine points. Dayton also scored four field goals, with three coming in the paint. A point of concern Hall coach Kevin Willard referred to after the contest.

Willard also had a concern about the rebounding. Dayton was tough on the boards and attacked the glass as OREB percentage shows. Matt Kavanaugh, a 6-9 sophomore, epitomized the Flyer effort coming off the bench for a team high 15 points while adding 7 rebounds.

Four Pirates were in double figures led by Jeff Robinson's 15 points. Jordan Theodore scored 13 points with 5 assists but greater defensive attention on the part of the Dayton guards in that final half, saw Theodore wind up shooting 5 of 13 from the floor.

Dayton had 70 possessions with a 99 OE. The Hall matched the offensive efficiency (OE) with 99 on 66 possessions. Those final twenty minutes Brian Gregory's club clearly set the pace with a 123-71 OE advantage.

Victorious Flyrs greet their fans

Richmond

69

Seton Hall

61

Snow is great for Winter scenes
not so for driving...

Efficiencies for the game:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Richmond	66	105
Seton Hall	68	90

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Richmond	52	18	27	17
Seton Hall	43	15	39	21

Richmond Coach Chris Mooney
fields questions from reporters

Observations
The Hall led 35-30 at the half but was unable to close the issue. This was a point discussed by coach Kevin Willard after the Dayton game as well as after this one. Seton Hall is simply unable to sustain the effort the full forty minutes. That is a point that must be addressed and altered for the Hall to start winning games of this nature against formidable opposition.

Willard was concerned that as the offense lagged the second half, the defense followed. Entering the game the Hall's defensive efficiency was a very creditable 89. This afternoon, it was 16 above average.

Herb Pope is still rounding into condition. The Pirates' junior forward did give a nice 9 point 12 rebound (team leading) effort in 28 minutes. Pope seems to be attacking the glass more aggressively the last two outings. A good sign.

Hall did a good job forcing the pace and getting in the lane against the Richmond defense, especially the first half. Willard noted that defensive letdowns in the second half hindered the offense. "It's hard to run when you are waiting for the ball to get through the net," he said.

Hall had three in double figures. Once again Jeff Robinson had an active 17 point 10 board effort. Jordan Theodore scored 15 points while Fuquan Edwin added a dozen.

Edwin's added minutes and the experience the freshman swingman is getting are a silver lining in the Jeremy Hazell injury.

Willard said an early January decision will be made regarding Hazell's return or medical red shirt. "We will do what benefits Jeremy the best," Willard said.

Richmond's OREB percentage margin is 25-29%. Simply they are -4 in the percentage margin (their minus that of the opposition). Hall enjoyed a healthy advantage in that area and had a 16-7 edge in second chance points.

Justin Harper led all scorers with 24 points. Richmond's 6-9 senior forward is effective inside or on the perimeter. Harper hit 6 of 8 from three and added a team high 8 rebounds.

Richmond entered with a 44% two point field goal percentage defense. Seton Hall shot an outstanding 68% from two the first half. Pirates cooled off, credit Richmond's defense, the second half finishing with a 41% mark for the contest.

The Final Five Minutes:
Taking a cue from Chris DiSano's "Ice Water in the Veins" article on College Chalktalk last season, is a possession breakdown showing how Mooney's club sealed the deal in the stretch.

Seton Hall led 59-57 with five minutes remaining. The results of those last possessions...

Poss	Richmond	Seton Hall
1.	field goal (Harper 2pt)	turnover
2.	field goal (Harper 3pt)	Miss (defensive reb)
3.	field goal (Garrett 2pt)	turnover
4.	Miss (defensive reb)	field goal (Robinson 2pt)
5.	field goal (Anderson 2pt)	Miss (defensive reb)
6.	field goal (Anderson 3pt)	Miss (defensive reb)
Total	12 points	2 points
PPP	2.00	0.33

Final Numbers
Seton Hall is 6-6, Richmond improves to 10-3. South Florida visit's the Rock on Tuesday to open Big East play. Willard reemphasized that "we have to make plays at the end of the game. Plays on the defensive end."

Hall finished 1-4 against A-10 opposition. They defeated UMASS on the road while losing at Temple, to Xavier on a neutral court and Dayton and Richmond at home. "In all our losses this season," Willard said, "we had a chance to win. We were right in the game."

Post game outside a snowy Rock